Yet Another Value Podcast - Why DraftKings might not be a big gamble with Aganju's Tolu Bukola $DKNG
Episode Date: April 19, 2026In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings�...� business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvementLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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All right, hello and welcome to yet another value podcast.
I'm your host, Andrew Walker.
Today's episode is I'm really excited for it.
It's something you'll be able to tell I'm very personally passionate about as a follower,
as a user, all this sort of stuff.
We have Tulu Bukola from Agungu Capital.
He comes on and he talks about Draft Kings.
And mainly we focus, look, if you're invested in Draft Kings,
the biggest thing for Draft Kings investors right now is the state of regulatory crackdown on
prediction markets.
So we go through all the legal angles, all the regulations,
Theatory Crackcher's angle, what happens if it doesn't happen?
What happens if it does happen?
All this sort of stuff.
We go through all of that.
This pitch came in third into some zero competition for 2026, and I think you're going
to see why.
You know, you say there came in third out of dozens and dozens of professional applicants.
So it is a great pitch.
He's done really great work on thinking through all the different angles.
I think you're going to see that through the presentation.
And I'm recording this right after, I'm recording this intro right after we recorded.
He said he's going to shoot me a note with his thesis.
write-up. So assuming he does that, I'll include a link to his full write-up in the share
note so you can go read that if you find it interesting. We're going to get right to the podcast
and one second. First, word from our sponsors. This podcast is sponsored by try trotta.com.
I've been pitching Trotta for six months of the podcast now. The feedback I get from it from
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Most frequent feedback I get is, hey, Andrew, I really like Trada. I just wish there was more.
and their libraries grant all the time.
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So they're meeting that feedback.
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I have found it to be awesome.
In fact, you're about to listen to a podcast on Draft Kings.
One of the ways I prep for this podcast, you'll even hear it.
I read a transcript on Trada, and it was really prescient.
It was really interesting.
They identify a lot of the risks.
They talk about why they might not be concerned.
Honestly, I think why I'm not sure if they're concerned enough about some of them,
but it's a really interesting product.
It's a really interesting transcript.
You can get a copy of the transcript by going to Try Trada.
That's Try, Trota, T-R-A-T-A dot com slash D-K-N-G, and you'll see a sample of that transcript.
So that's a great way to get a sample of the podcast, of the product.
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All right, hello, and welcome to yet another value podcast.
I'm your host, Andrew Walker.
With me today, I'm happy to have on for the first time,
Tolubukola from Angoon.
I got it right?
Capital.
Aganju.
Gosh, darn it.
I'm not going to press record.
People can just know I can't pronounce anything.
I'm really excited you.
We were emailing back and forth
for the past couple months about this.
I'm really excited for today's name.
Get there in one second,
but before we get there.
Disclaim around to everyone.
Nothing on this podcast.
podcast is investing device. There's a full disclaimer at the end of the podcast and the show notes
if you want to check those out. So Tulu, the company we're going to talk about is one that I have
looked at a lot, personally, professionally, all sorts of things. It's Draft Kings, ticker there is
DKNG. Obviously, lots of things to talk about here, but I'll just turn it over to you.
What is Draft Kings and are they so interesting right now? Yep. So Draft Kings is an OSB,
an online sports betting operator, though I will point out pretty soon that I actually think there's
there's much more to it than sports betting.
So it's basically an online gambling company.
They've been around since 2012.
They spacked in 2020.
And so historically for most of its life as a proper company,
super high growth lanes,
there were questions about quality of earnings.
It's kind of been in this land grab phase of the growth
of the US online sports betting industry.
Over the last six months or so,
the stock has gotten absolutely trashed.
It's been roughly rough.
cut in half, I started looking into it kind of like late last year and started getting
involved and unfortunately it's become even more of a value name since then.
It's had a pretty tough year.
I think it started the year like in their 30s and it's roughly $25.
And essentially what's happened is one of these things where I think there's kind of like
a natural slowdown for the company in terms of some of the fundamental metrics, in particular
the growth metrics.
And that's just like the market is reaching a level of.
maturation, but then I think a big thing that's happened is there's kind of this big existential
thesis out there. And the existential thesis is mostly around these things called prediction markets.
And so, I mean, I'm sure many of our listeners have heard of this. A prediction market is
on like a sports book, which is like a centralized entity that takes everyone's bets. It's just an
exchange, right? So like you basically, instead of making a bat and then, you know, six months later
or like maybe days later, depending on your bat,
you cash in or out, depending on whether you won or lost.
This is a place where you kind of trade contracts.
And so the contracts, you know, they will go between zero or a hundred or zero to one
isomorphically.
But basically the value of a contract represents the probability of a binary event happening, right?
So you can buy something for 30 cents, right?
30%.
And then maybe tomorrow it goes up to 50% and you sell and you lock in a profit.
You don't have to wait around.
You don't have to, yeah, so on like a sports book, you're not just doing it.
It's a lot more active.
Some people would argue it's a lot more interesting.
These things have been, they've been around for a while.
They've never really taken off in the United States because they've always been illegal
because they've been considered gambling.
But several of them, in particular, this one, Kalshi launched in 2018, and Pauley Market
launched in 2020, they're really kind of taking off over the last year.
And that's because Cal She registered with a CFTC and is claiming that instead of being a betting venue in is a derivative exchange, which is allowed it to bypass a lot of regulation.
So that's, I've already gone on a while.
That's kind of the high level.
And so, you know, a lot of things to discuss it, as you said, we can, you know, start with the fundamentals.
I'm sure we'll spend a lot of time discussing kind of the legal angles, things like that.
It's so, hey, that was a great overview.
You know, it's funny to just say, hey, explain draft Kings, because if anyone has ever watched any sporting event, I'm sure that they have an idea of what draft Kings and Fandul are.
But look, you hit the nail on the head, right?
The big risk here is prediction markets.
And I, we can start with those.
I also should mention one other thing.
You entered the sum zero stock of the year, 2006 competition.
I believe your draft Kings pitch came in third.
and that's, you know, coming in third
in any stock pitch competition is great,
but I mean, there are, I believe, hundreds of entries there.
So awesome work on that.
This is an award winning or near award winning pitch
depending on how you want to define coming in the top three place.
But we'll go to prediction to markets everything in one second,
but let me just start off with this.
You bought a position draft kings.
There's a lot of things to talk about,
and we're going to talk about them.
But the market's a really competitive place.
What do you think you're seeing that the market is missing?
Do you think the market is just overblown on the prediction market threat?
Do you think the market is underlooking the fact that Draft Kings is largely
they're going to take it?
Do you think it's something else entirely that the market is kind of missing here?
Yeah, I mean, so there are two things, right?
One is that, you know, I think the market is increasingly dominated by short-term traders.
And so I think essentially what happened is like when you do have a company where the top line
is slowing and then you have this thesis out there, right?
And so the thing, too, with the thesis is that the prediction markets are growing really fast,
right? And so you also have a lot of data driven traders, right? And so if you just look at the data,
it's like, okay, like the data for this one thing. And so the prediction markets are private,
so you can't buy them. Like every day it shows up and it's going up, up, up. And the data for
this other thing is slowing. Like there are a lot of people that mostly trade data points now. And so
they're not necessarily looking out two or three years, right? So I think that's a big part of it.
And a lot of these people are also not, they're not considering the risks to the prediction
markets, which is a lot of what we'll discuss and we'll get to.
But in terms of draft kings, I think because people are still focused on the sports betting
business, I actually think they're ignoring what I think is the best part of the business,
right, which is eye gaming.
And so to give you some perspective, eye gaming is a little bit more than 20% of the revenue.
It's growing 20 to 25%.
They don't really make it possible to do an easy breakout under some of the courts, but they do
give a lot of detail on costs and it's safe to say like the overwhelming majority of the costs
and a lot of the incremental costs with the marketing and you know the prediction markets cost
that they're incurring this year all of that is kind of on the sports betting side so i gaming
even you know at about a billion dollar scale i think um and once again you kind of have to make
some of your own assumptions about the cost baked out i think it's realistically already doing
300 to 500 million
of all
eBay da
right
and so let me let me ask there
let me just ask there
eye gaming I do hear you
growing quickly and a lot of that is
rollout and all that sort of stuff but
I think the the thing people liked about
the core draft king's business right is
hey there is a lot of fixed cost
that comes to the core draft king's business
and you know there was the land rush in 2021
and basically everyone other than
mGM fan duel and
Raff Kings kind of gave up because the fixed cost and everything was too high.
They were just incinerating money.
So I think people really like the online sports trading business because it said,
hey, it's evolved into this rational oligopoly, right?
You've got three competitors.
And yes, there's still some promos and customer, but you've got this rational oligopoly
and this thing that's probably going to be pretty recession resistant, growing, you know,
margins blowing up as everybody starts doing crazier and crazier parlors.
Like you could see that.
I hear you on the eye betting where it's growing.
but when I look at I betting, I say, oh, that's not an oligopoly, right?
This is a, like every casino has, you know, Seasers has one.
MGM has one.
East Rivers, like every state has seven to ten players if it's legalized.
So, yes, it's growing nicely, but, you know, it's just hard to imagine that that's going to have
the same kind of nice oligopoly economics.
It feels like that's going to be a big competition and like kind of your customer acquisition
costs are really going to eat into what the overall returns of that business are.
So I hear you that it's there, but is it when you're talking about switching the bull faces from, hey, we've got an oligopoly in sports betting to, hey, and also eye gaming is much smaller, right?
There is something about people love to gamble, but there is something about, like, my mom and grandma love going and pulling the slot physically.
They don't gamble on their phones.
Like, it's a much different gambler who's like, I want to sit at home and just like you press, tap slots and gamble.
So it's a smaller market.
It's a more competitive market.
Like, is that really a great, like, hey, this is what I'm resting the thesis on?
So I would say it's part of the thesis, but yes, here's my argument for why I actually think
you're underestimating that I gave in business a little bit.
Sports betting, like running a sports book actually takes a bit of sophistication, right?
Like, and, you know, it doesn't happen that frequently, but we do see sports books blow up
because they misspast their risks, right?
In terms of the kind of LTV, the CACD dynamics where you have to advertise a lot to get customers, it's essentially the same, right?
But the thing is that, like, once you get someone into the eye gaming, they are a lot more profitable, right?
And they're like a few reasons for that, right?
So the sports book, there's the dynamic of, like, the marketing goes on not just to, like, onboard people, but also to some extent, it's like an event-to-event thing, right?
And it's part of why they're difficult to run.
Like you can't have completely different odds from, you know,
everyone else in a sportsbook.
In eye gaming, you know, people come onto this.
It becomes their account and you just kind of monetize them, right?
There's a like, and so, you know, there will always be people like offering bonuses and stuff,
but that's kind of no difference from the sports book.
But like, it's not much easier to monetize because it's not like, you know,
you're competing for people on an event-to-invent basis where people are going to go from
like I'm playing slots here to like I'm playing slots somewhere else, right?
And then it's the nature of the business itself is actually just kind of like excellent from the perspective of the operator right.
Because like in eye gaming, like these are just like table games like slots, blackjack for people that don't know.
When people say that, you know, you can't lose money, money in a casino, they're not actually talking about sports books.
Like I told you, like people have blown up money in sports books.
They're really talking about the table games.
And that's because you have a built-in, you know, a built-in edge for the house.
And so you just dump as many customer dollars on that as possible.
And, you know, you essentially prevent whatever the edge is.
And I think that dynamic is even better when it's online, right?
Because, like, think about, like, the slots at Vegas where, like, you know, people are mad
because they think they've, like, slightly increased their win weight over the years.
But, like, on, like, when we're talking about online, you can do that, like,
instantly automatically.
And the kinds of people that want to do this
mostly don't notice, right?
Because like, you can think
like there are like some sophisticated sports battles
or whatever.
Like by definition, if you're playing a game like slots
where you're literally just like pressing buttons
and like shiny things show up,
not necessarily someone that's trying to win money.
And then the other thing,
in terms of the size, like eye gaming right now
is only legal and 11% of the states containing
11% of the population.
Sports betting is legal in states containing 60%.
I don't necessarily think,
I think ultimately sports betting will be legal
in the vast majority of the country, like 80% plus.
I don't necessarily think eye gaining is going to get there,
but like if it gets to 50%, that's five acts of the business, right?
And so if we're talking about a $1 billion business now,
and they keep market share,
that's a $5 billion business that I think is already
dramatically more profitable than the sports book.
And so I think it's very easy to conceive of like
the eye gaming business being worth easily
the entire enterprise value right now.
No, look, I certainly hear you.
I just, I do worry like, A, their customer book, you know, it's, let's choose a state
where it's not legal now where it opens up Chicago.
If it opens up into Chicago, like, who's got a better bead on kind of rolling out an
eye game in business?
Is it draft kings with their probably male youth heavy sports betting business?
Or is it, you know, Ballet's Casino in downtown Chicago that probably has like a bunch of older
people who actually want to play the slots in their customer list.
Like, I don't know, but just talk.
I mean, I will say, though, you could have made that same argument.
And I think people did make that same argument about sports betting with respect to like
Cesar's or something.
And it turns out that actually, like, it's, it's mostly going to be kind of a financial land
grab to get that, to get the customers onboarded.
And then, and then you kind of just executed the same way.
It's a great point.
And I know Draft Kings just had an investor day and I was reading through it.
And that's what they said, right?
They said, hey, you know, we are Draft Kings.
draft kings. We were fantasy sports daily drafting. And when this legalized, everybody was like,
oh, these guys are going to get murdered. But guess what? We have the best systems. We had the best
marketing, all this sort of stuff. We know how to do this. And, you know, it's not loss of me.
As you're saying, their online gaming, they come out and say, look, we built everything from scratch.
We built our own games. Like, who do I think is going to make more creative games that appeal to
the eye gaming better? Is it going to be Caesars who, you know, they can't even update their own
properties in Vegas? Or is it going to be this online?
online native business that's kind of doing their own thing.
And by the way, the proof is somewhat in the pudding.
They're doing it very, very well in the States.
They're already deployed it, right?
So it's not like they're struggling to gain traction, right?
Let's move to, it's a really interesting website case, but let's move to prediction markets
because I think that is where the real bull bear on this comes, right?
And I will just straw man and posit two things.
You know, when I hear Bulls talk, I mainly hear Bulls.
And I think when I read the companies, they did the Investor Day in early March of this year that I referenced.
I hear them say the prediction market threat is overblown.
And then I hear them say, hey, even if it's not overblown, prediction markets are going to, you know, in the next year or two, SCOTUS is going to save us from prediction markets.
We can put the legal to the side for a second.
I'd love to just talk overblown because I, you know, I'll give an anecdote data and then I'll give a little point.
You know, one of my best friends, who's also an ad of the podcast, the listener, shout out Logan.
him and I text all the time about sports bets.
It used to be we would share drafting stuff,
and now we share Kalshi stuff, you know?
And I was reading a Trotta transcript to prep for this.
And I hear a guy who is a bull who says,
hey, I think the prediction markets are overblown.
That's the first sentence.
And then the second sentence, he says,
to play devil's advocate, I'm a sports better,
and I've moved all my sports betting from Fandall and Draftings to Kalshi.
And I'm like, man, you just said it's overblown,
and then you said you switched over.
Like, it just seems to me that, you know,
The prediction market's product is more liquid.
It's a lot cheaper, largely because there's no gaming taxes, right?
But it just seems a better, more liquid product.
It's screaming to me that it's going to murder these people unless, you know, we'll talk legal,
unless the government steps in.
So let's talk prediction markets are overblown.
Okay.
So in terms of the product experience, right, I'm not going to disagree that it's better,
but I think we kind of have a bias, right?
We have a professional investors, right?
like this stuff like in inerately appeals to us.
Like I mean, I'm not a big sports betting guy.
To give me to give you a hint of my background
with prediction markets, I've probably been playing with them
probably like longer than just about anyone.
I used to be on in trade back when they allowed sports
and then like they obviously faced a bunch of regulatory challenges
and I actually ran a Google route for like in trade refugees.
So like I'm actually like a big prediction markets guys.
To me from like a product perspective, it's a no better.
Like like why would you not be able to trade your office?
odds, right? So yeah, but I do think one of the reasons that I think maybe the market is
overreacting to this is like, it's one of those things that just happens to play very well to
the biases of the people that end up making their investments, right?
One of my favorite trades is, I think it's gotten overblown, but, you know, I do remember
all the time where there would be something that's really popular in the Midwest and then, you know,
kind of the New York elites look down on it. And that was such a great trade because, like,
yeah, the guys who actually buy the stocks don't like it.
But if you just call up 10 customers, they're like, this is the best thing ever.
I can't wait for them to open a new store.
It's generally retail or it happens.
But I agree with you.
That's a really great trade when it's like, hey, you know, all the finance people hate it,
but the actual customers love it.
Yeah.
So I think there's a bit of the opposite bias here where like obviously like to finance people,
this is just like, dude, throw these sports books in the trash.
It's over.
But like that's, you know, to some extent, non-disprovable.
I will say like some of the evidence I lean on is that, like I said,
prediction markets are not new.
Flutter as Betfair,
which is a prediction market.
It's existed in the UK for like 20 plus years.
And so the best, it's hard to get the exact data,
but the best data we have is that they're about 5% of the market, right?
And so they coexist with online sports books,
with real live casinos and stuff.
And so the best evidence we have is that they've been able to get about 5%.
Right.
And so there is a lot of evidence that, like, for whatever reason,
like, while it might nearly appeal
of people like you and me, this format
is not that attractive to the majority.
Now, you could argue.
I mean, there are two arguments, right?
One is like a U.S. cultural exceptionalism argument,
but then the other is just like, you know,
changes over time, right?
Like...
I was going to say, kids these day are a lot more online,
a lot more comfortable with crypto and gambling.
Like, it does strike me maybe when I was growing up,
I'm like, oh, I'm too scared.
But, you know, the kids these days know
and like it spreads through TikTok and the Snapchat's.
And like if you're doing something so often,
like they're going to spread it real fast and you're going to know.
Yeah.
And so yeah.
And it's also like, yeah, Vobino is super popular.
Coinbase.
Like, yeah, everyone trades.
Right.
So trading, I think over the last five years has become part of the cultural Zite guest.
So I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't naively insist that like we're going to be limited
to like 5% like the UK is.
Right. Like it's possible that it's a lot more popular here.
But the evidence does seem to suggest that, you know,
it's not something that at least very quickly replaces the sports books.
And then if we kind of look at the evidence of what has actually happened so far, right?
It's been really hard to see it in the data.
Like the data released by Draft Kings, the data released by other American operators,
which is not to say there isn't some displacement going on.
I will tell you that.
So I think one of the Southside sources I used estimated that Kalshi already has 10% share.
of the sports betting, but like that 10%,
you have to remember that 40% of the country sports betting is illegal, right?
Whereas Cali does not respect those limitations.
Wages in the World is going to spend a lot of time.
So like they basically should have like 100% share in California
and 100% share in taxes, right?
And so there are all these places where they essentially
have 100% share.
So when that rolls up to a 10% combined share,
like it doesn't actually mean that they're making a big impact
on places where they compete head-tapped with sports books.
And it's like so far we just haven't really seen it.
And in like, you know, the numbers that Draft Kings has released recently, though, I mean, like, look, giving their growth, I think it's naive to think that, like, oh, they're not making any impact.
They're definitely making some.
But I would say, like, we're certainly not in a place where we can start to underwrite the thesis that, like, these things are going to dominate the market or even be, like, 20%.
So I'll say there's still someone's a significant amount of certainty there.
No, that's great.
Let me, you know, BetMGM came out and reported earlier this week.
And there, I subscribe to a lot of the gaming things.
And, you know, their CFO is not putting it.
He's not kind of dancing around the issue.
He says, hey, you know, our results were okay.
They would have been much better if it wasn't for, if it wasn't for prediction markets.
They're taking share, all this sort of stuff.
I guess it just is one
to be like
let me actually back up
as we sit here
you're saying hey I agree with you
it's like California Texas
these Utah these places where sports spending
is just completely outlawed
it's crazy to me that they only have 10% share
given that they probably have 100% share
in those places
if we roll this forward
and there's no regulatory
like how much do you think
prediction markets in markets
where they share with draft games
fandle and markets for sports
soon as you, where do you think, like, the prediction market share stabilizes that?
Yeah.
So this is one of those things where there's a tendency to make up a number, and I'm just not going
to.
I really just don't know.
Like, like I said, the only real evidence we have is the UK and, like, a few other markets
where they've stabilized that single-digit percentages.
But like I said, like different generation, different country.
Like, so I, in the case where they do not face any kind of regulatory pushback,
It's hard to say.
I will say, though, like, and we'll get into this mode when we discuss the regulation.
In that case, there are actually things that will also benefit the OSPs, right?
Because, like, it's not that when we're talking about regulatory pushback.
We're not talking about regulatory pushback to put prediction markets at a disadvantage.
We're talking about pushback to put them on par, right?
And so if the prediction markets are not prevented from being able to operate in California,
for example, or in Texas, that pretty much guarantees that those states will immediately legalize
OSBs so that they can at least collect taxes from the fact that people are already doing betting.
And so in that case, we actually kind of have this offsetting dynamic.
I'm like maybe they become the thing that pushes for further legalization.
But as to that core question, no one can predict the future that.
way we can only hang our ads on the data we already have.
Look, it's one of the reasons why I ultimately, I ultimately think that the legal case does
win, and we can talk legal case in second, but you just look at it and you're like, hey,
okay, so we have unregulated gambling.
Well, that's something that governments generally do not like unregulated gambling,
and they don't, they just don't like the unregulated part.
But then, oh, by the way, you know, Draft Kings, which is generating tens of millions in tax
revenues for many of these states, it's unregulated gambling.
that's not generating tax revenue.
Like, I just can't believe that the government,
even if the Supreme Court rules, hey, this is legal,
like you've just got to change the law, right?
Because if you make it completely unregulated,
to me, it clearly takes up huge share,
and it's not generating any tax revenue.
So even if you ignore the, hey, we're going to create
a bunch of gambling addicts, which I'm not sure
if governments cared about or not, they certainly care about,
hey, we legalize gambling to get 25 million extra taxes every year.
and now we're getting zero.
I think they're going to care about that.
So, Bet Fair.
This was one of the really interested in pieces.
You shared the piece that you came in third and sum zero with.
This is one of the really interested pieces you said,
hey, bet fair, which is a bet exchange,
stabilize that below 5% market share in Great Britain.
And we've already talked a little bit about, hey, you know,
20 years ago, the people who are betting might be a little bit less
as financial fiscalicated.
But even if you said right now in the U.S.,
it's 10% market share for prediction markets
and probably lower in places where they're head to head.
that seems crazy low to me.
But why did Betfair only stabilize at 5%?
Like it seems like so much of a better model.
And I know Betfair has advertised, one of their advertisements is, hey, we're 20% cheaper
than all the alternatives.
Now, prediction markets might be 95% cheaper than draftings here because they don't pay taxes.
But why were they stabilizing under 5%?
Why wasn't it 25, 30, 50, 90?
So there are two things, right?
One is like what we've already to discuss.
I think there's kind of an iner cultural bias among traders.
like us to think that like, oh, this is an hourly superior, so it should win.
Like, so even the entire thing where it's like more cheaper, I'm not really sure like,
like most of betters are not like short betters, right? So like they're not necessarily like
all about like maximizing their edge. Or maybe, or they probably wouldn't bet anyway since
practically anyone loses. That's one. So I think like this assumption that like this is an
an inherently better product and therefore should have gained more.
market share is just kind of false, right? But then number two is I actually think that in a world
where there will no like regulatory differentials or anything of that sort, to some extent,
it just reverts to the same thing in terms of like competition, right? Where it's just that
LTV cap, where it's ultimately we can do the most advertising, right? And so then it's also like
how much money was BFETA able to kind of invest behind getting people to the product? Well, until
they were bought by Florida, they were like a pretty small operation, right? So they were bought by
Flutter, so Flutter obviously, relative to where they were as, like, infinite money.
But it's a little bit of a self-fulfilling dynamic where, like, they didn't have enough money
to pour in the billions and billions and billions into marketing that the competition could pour in.
So, you know, in this scenario where, like, nothing, you know, like, let's say we were on an
even regulatory footing, which, once again, we'll discuss what that even means.
Because I don't think people understand the extent to which, like, it's not just that
we're not even.
and it's that the prediction markets have massive unfair advantages right now,
then it would kind of, I think to some extent,
it would also just be like the usual land grab,
like, who's going to do the most promotions, right?
Who's going to do the most marketing?
Who shows up every time you listen to a watch ESPN or listen to a podcast,
which right now, like, you know, to some extent,
like you would expect Graft Kings and Florida and everyone to compete against
the prediction markets, but also against each other in the exact same
way that they already compete, which is just like, we're going to own all the podcasts.
Like, we're going to spend the marketing dollars and it becomes a game of marketing scale,
right?
You know, obviously this podcast is not devoted to, is not devoted to sport, so I can understand
why, but I am a little insulted that they haven't sponsored my podcast yet, right?
Just tell them, just tell them your longed-dav Kings.
Yeah.
Get that money.
Let me go.
You mentioned it.
I think this is worth bearing because when I talk to people, you know, people who aren't,
I don't want to say financially, but people who just don't follow this super closely, right?
A lot of times they don't, first, it's funny.
Like, sometimes people don't realize when we talk about bets, the big is, you know, how much the house is taking when you're betting.
They're like, oh, yeah, of course, you bet a hundred to win, you know, in a straight-up bet where both sides are even, you bet a hundred to win.
It's about $90 and $0.90.
I'm like, yeah, well, that $9.10 is the house big.
But let's talk about the advantage that prediction markets have because I don't think people who haven't like kind of looked at the math really understand why.
they're so much cheaper?
Yeah, so prediction markets have, and so in a prediction market, you basically trade against
other players, and instead of collecting, so I guess maybe it makes more sense to talk about
sports books, so to me they actually a little bit wier, which is that, you know, a sports
book, you place a bat, and then, you know, you either win or lose, and sports books have this thing,
and the total amount of betting is handle, and they have this thing which is hold, which is
ultimately how much of the handle they get.
And it's basically placed on price books, sports books,
pricing things efficiently, but also having a structural spread,
and that if you were to make both sides of the exact same bet,
you would actually lose money, and that's just like the spread that they collect.
By contrast, there is no spread on prediction markets.
You're betting against another player.
someone wins exactly as much as someone loses except for a transaction fee, right? And, you know,
one knows where the transaction fees will stabilize. I think right now, CalShe's is about 7%.
And so, yeah, that's kind of the big difference. Yeah. So I think that that's a great one. So if you
just think about that, like production markets, number one, they have an advantage there because if you
and I are running a sports book, right, we have to have all sorts of sophisticated pricing technology
because you're not just trying,
if it's the Patriots versus the Seahawks in the Super Bowl,
you're not just trying to even out the money of Patriots on one side
and Seahawks on the other.
You know,
if people are doing more complex things,
like if somebody bets on Drake made to throw two touchdowns,
well, how do you have the other side of that?
Like, these things can get really complicated.
So you have to hire lots of computer scientists,
probably getting replaced by AI right now,
but you have to hire lots of people to do that.
You have to have lots of regular story stuff.
You have to have a book building or risk management process
and all that sort of stuff.
Prediction markets,
all of that's up the window.
right? All you have to do is say, hey, we need to match Andrew Opetulah and have one of them bet on the
Patriots and one of them bet on the Seahawks and just make the odds even where people are willing to trade.
And then the other thing that I think I kind of implied earlier that people, like, that's a challenge for the sports book is that you don't,
you're also somewhat of a price taker, right? Like, Darth Kings can't set the odds of the Eagles winning the Super Bowl at just like a completely different place from everyone else, right?
because that just creates like arbitrage and all kinds of crazy risk, right?
And so it's it's fairly complex.
If Draft King says, hey, we think the Eagles should be 10-point favorites and their three-point favorites everywhere else,
well, people are going to be betting like crazy on the everywhere else and then taking the others on it.
And the other way prediction markets have a huge advantage right now, which we've alluded to,
is draft Kings in every state they are in, there are state-level taxes.
You know, every, I believe it's applied on the hold, not the handle, but no,
actually it might be on the handle. I can't remember. But every bet, basically, they have to give
the state governments a cut of, right? And prediction markets, because they're regulated at the
CFTC and not at the state level, they have, they don't give anything. So, you know, when you're
talking about, hey, one side has to give a cut of everything just like right off the top of the government
and the other side doesn't, that is just a massive tax advantage that the prediction markets have.
And so I think we're getting to some of the legal issues now. And so, yeah, so the prediction
markets, because they claim to be federally regulated, they don't pay these taxes. The taxes can be
really high, by the way. They go.
all the way from like 5 or 10 to like 50%.
I think Chicago, and this was a big risk over last summer,
I thought about what Traff King, Chicago unilaterally,
sorry, Illinois unilaterally changed the taxes of the,
of sports betting over there.
And Draft Kings and Fendell were like, okay, well,
now we have to, I believe they started instituting,
like if you're Illinois better,
hey, we're adding this five cent tax because that's what they did.
And they had to pull back on all their promotions, everything.
So it can be a big number.
And so that's one of the risks to this business, right?
Like, we know how government and taxation works.
They'll always be tempted to take more.
And, like, you know, a gambling business is something people tend not to be super sympathetic to, right?
Just like, you can always increase the taxes on cigarettes and booze, right?
Because, like, yeah, there won't be as much pushback on that.
You can kind of always increase the taxes on gambling.
So the prediction markets are not paying these taxes, which I think average out to about, like, 20% across the states.
And are, like, I forgot the exact.
number, but it's getting close to like $10 billion, right? So they're not paying these taxes.
They are also allowing anyone over the age of 18 to bet, whereas most states restrict it to 21.
And then obviously the big one of your own focuses on is they will allow you to do this in any
state, including states with sports betting is illegal, and which includes many of the biggest states,
in particular, California and Texas, right? And so, and oh yeah, by the way, also like state gaming
commissions have all kinds of costly rules.
Yep.
Right.
And so it's like you have to do all of these things about problem gambling.
You have to monitor problem gambling.
You have to do all of these sports integrity rules and make sure that like, you know,
flag it if you see a chance that someone is insider trading or someone is match fixing,
all of that.
All of that stuff is very expensive.
Prediction markets currently don't have to do any of that.
And prediction markets, we're obviously talking sports betting, but anyone who's followed
any of the news, you know, once a week you see, hey, someone in the, like, the Trump administration
made one decision and 15 minutes before the prediction markets were lit up with people buying
things. Like, if that's happening in politics, obviously, you're probably not going to have
a LeBron James, like gambling on himself in a game, but to think about, oops, too, did I lose you
there? If you think about all of the, if you think about all of the scandals that the NBA had,
you know, in the past year, the prediction markets, they're so anonymous and they're so easy.
and they have just no regulatory infrastructure around stopping insider trading.
You could imagine real scandals developing the prediction markets.
Well, I mean, I think we already have, right?
And speaking of non-sports things, I think what's actually brought a lot of really negative
legislative attention to prediction markets is that for all of the military operations,
we bat against Iran and Venezuela, so there have been members of both the U.S. and Israeli
militaries betting on when these operations would begin based on the insider knowledge,
which is a national security risk, right?
Like, it's absurd.
People went to jail.
Some of the Israeli people went to jail for it.
But I did start wondering, you know, if you didn't regulate it, could you have the
Trump administration be like, all right, we're going to attack on, you know, if we just
throw in $10,000 real quick, or I said Trump in any administration, if we throw in $10,000 real
quick on the right prediction market, you know, if everybody starts monitoring this, now create a crisis
at another country.
And we're actually not going to do anything.
But, you know, it'd be the cheapest way $10,000 and you spur up an entire foreign government to go like five star red alarm fire.
Like, it's kind of interesting to think about the game theories of if the prediction markets aren't regulated, everybody's paying attention and just throw a little money and you could cause another government to like call on 500,000 reserves or something.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's, yeah, there was also the bad bunny one with some bad bunny insider was betting on exactly we would bring out in a super bullet.
Some of them have been real stupid.
but like there was a missed or beast one.
Okay, let's go.
So I think we've talked about this,
and I'm going to come back to the valuation
and fundamentals a second,
but we should,
what is the legal path?
I mean,
draft kings,
bet MGM,
everyone,
they're looking for a legal path
to shut this down
and kind of get a fair playing field
is what I would call it,
but what is the legal path
to get there look like?
Okay, so there are three legal paths, right?
And we're going to focus on one
because, okay,
so I'll just explain what the three are.
The first one is
Congress steps in,
makes legislation stops prediction markets from doing sports.
We've had some proposals, as you can predict, which states they came from, like Nevada.
We've had some congressmen getting on board with banning prediction markets from sports.
We've also added some calls to basically ban prediction markets altogether.
How likely is this?
Honestly, I don't know.
I think some of the stuff with like the evading, like an attack inside of betting is making it much more likely that we see a legislative intervention.
But yes, that's something that's quite possible, but I don't necessarily focus on.
I mean, I think our Congress is kind of dysfunctional, and so I don't bet money on what they'll do.
The second path, and that's the one we'll discuss the most, is that I think there's a very strong case that what the prediction markets are doing is already just illegal and kind of illegal in some truly absurd ways that we will go into.
And so the second path is the one that I think is progressing steadily along, which is basically,
Tradiction markets are suing or being sued by 20 plus states.
We've already had some circuit splits.
This is basically guaranteed to get to the Supreme Court.
I previously thought it was going to be in 2028.
This stuff is moving so fast and it's already created so many splits.
Well, it's already created one split and it's basically a guarantee to create several more this year
that I think we could see an acceleration of that timeline.
Maybe 2027 is possible.
And then the third one, which people don't think about is that like,
So the prediction market is able to do what they're doing due to the compliance of the CFTC.
So the CFTC is, you know, historically like the commodities regulator, the little brother of the SEC, it only has 700 employees, 250 lawyers, not a very big federal agency, right?
And what's happened under the Trump administration is, so essentially the crypto people donated a ton of money to Trump.
And what they wanted was less regulation of crypto.
and part of how you achieved this is moving it from the well-resourced state SCC to the CFTC.
They got what they asked for.
It's some of the best return on money people could.
Oh, yeah, they got exactly what they asked for, right?
And so the funny thing is that aside from not being particularly well-resourced historically,
so the CFTC typically 700 employees, 250 lawyers, it's particularly under-resourced right now
because basically the entire enforcement division quit or was pushed out.
So it has no enforcement division.
It's normally supposed to have five commissioners.
It only has one.
The guy's an ex-crypto lawyer.
So you can guess how he feels about all these things.
So it's basically putting his full force behind the prediction markets, right?
But even if you accept, even if we don't get the Supreme Court really pulling back on the
CFTC's ability to regulate these things, like if you accept the legal status court, a future
CFTC has the right to basically stop on this point.
sports betting, right? Because, so one of the cases, in Cal She, like, October, November of
2024, before it started doing sports, it started doing elections, and the CFTC actually sued
them to stop elections. They won on basically the argument that, like, the CA gives the, there's
this special rule in the CA, which is the world that created the CFTC, gives the CFTC the
right to review contracts who's underlying,
they're like a bunch of different things,
but one of them is like the underlying function is gaming.
And so the court will, that because elections are not gaming,
it's not clear that the CFTC has a right to regulate these election contracts, right?
But what's interesting about that is the implicit assumption by both the court,
Kalshi and the CFTC, that if it was gaming and they,
literally use the exact example of the Super Bowl that CFTC could regulate it. So the point here is
that we've established that like the CFTC can in fact regulate sports contracts and the only reason
this CFTC isn't doing so is because it's kind of bought by these crypto interests who also
happen to be a lot of the same people that are now involved in prediction markets and so it doesn't
want to. But like a future democratic CFTC could just be like even under the legal status
school could just be like all of this is over. Right. So.
Great overview. I want to go to valuation a second, but let me just lay out my worry here.
Like, and again, I have no position here. But if I just laid up, I think people could probably tell, I fully believe this should be regulated.
And I fully think at some point hands are going to get forced just because we're losing out on tax revenue, all this sort of stuff.
But my worry is, you know, you laid up. Supreme Court probably 28, maybe 27 at this point.
New CFTC commissioner, maybe 28. You know, you probably need a change of an administration.
and probably Democratic administration.
Like all these things are two to three years away.
So I think listeners can probably say,
I think that should happen in a righteous world,
one of many of them,
and have this on even playing field and regulated.
But my worry is it two years away, right?
And in the intervening two years,
I think both you and I could agree
that prediction markets as is
are probably a superior product.
And I worry that a superior product just,
it takes a lot of share.
And as we're waiting for those two years,
you're just, you know, every day,
this drip, drip, drip,
of more prediction markets, look at the prediction market volumes.
Every broker starts launching a predict market to get in on some of this volume.
And like just this competition is rising.
So I worry about, hey, the end state looks good for draftings, but man, does the mark along
the way look.
So I'm going to pause there and then we can just kind of talk valuation and everything.
Yeah.
So, I mean, look, there's a little bit of investment philosophy, right?
To me, like, this is part of like why this is interesting, right?
Because people are paying, like, people are paying so much attention to the dip of
trip and the data and the prediction markets, you know, increasing their volumes.
That's why you get to buy it at these valuations, right?
And so to me, the investment thesis is the opportunity to look two years out and be like,
okay, this would have grown a little bit more.
You know, the I gaming business would have grown more.
And then we will at the same time likely be getting one of the big existential risks
taking off the table, which at that point will allow people to look at,
more like kind of the underlying like end state economics of this business and be like, wow,
this is really cheap relative to what we think are going to be the long-term profit generation.
So there's a shorthand ways to value this, right, which is, hey, the prediction markets there
kind of started in August.
And I don't think this is a really A-Iable business.
But this was trading 45 to 50 in late August.
And then the prediction scare market scare really start happening.
And it's trading 23 now.
I mean, is the right way to think about it, hey, you know, it grows a little bit in 2008,
2009, some type of regulatory crackdown on prediction markets, and we go right back to
45 to 50, so you've kind of looking at a two to three or double, or is there, we can talk any
any way you want to value it, but is that kind of a fun and easy, shorthand way to look at it.
Yeah, so I do think you're kind of looking at a two, three, a double.
The way I think about it is like you have to look at the long-term economics.
So at their latest investor, they guided to the long-term 30% even down margins.
I think that's achievable.
But, like, you know, the only reason to really, I mean,
they're still kind of in the land-grab phase,
especially in the sports betting business.
The only way to really think about long-term economics is just looking,
once again at the example of markets, you know,
where sports betting has been legal in a while,
and we have kind of similar competitive dynamics to what we're like they'd experience,
which is a little bit oligalistic or like, you know,
a few big players and then a long tail of worst players.
So if you're looking at both the UK and Australia, these businesses have come and settled at like 30% a bit down.
And like I said, I think if you break out the eye-gaining business, it's actually already well over 20%
and that they're basically barely breaking even on sports betting.
And that's because you're spending all this money to gain share.
They're also now spending a bunch of money to defend themselves against prediction market.
So let's say that you don't want to underwrite the 30%, like let's say that you want to think about it like 20%, right?
So they did $6 billion this year.
If you think they'd blow at just like 12% e-ish, like let's say 12 to 15%,
they'll be at close to $9 billion by like 2029, right?
And this isn't a very aggressive rate of growth, right?
Because if you just think about it, remember like the sports betting, like even if you're
not getting further penetration, you're kind of going to get the tailwind from just going from
60% of the population to 80% of the population.
And then obviously on the eye gaming side, you have a lot more upside, right?
So not a super aggressive rate of growth.
We're talking about, yeah, we're talking about basically being 50% bigger than they are right now.
And you start to adjust what you think could be end state margins to that way.
So you don't give them credit for the full 30%.
Let's say you give them 20%.
Let's say you give them, you know, even if you give them 15%.
We're talking about 1.5 to 2 billion of EBITDA.
And so that's kind of like 1.5 to 2 billion of what you would think of as the normalized EBIT down in 2029.
And then, you know, we can apply whatever multiple.
I think of business like this probably gets like 12 to 15 X.
And so that gets you, you know, if you put 15X, you know, even like a lower than kind of like the 20% of mid-cycle.
But if you put 15 apps and even, let's say, kind of.
a 15%
2029, that
easily gets you into the 40s, right?
And then, you know, and then
I think if we do get, as I think
kind of a little bit of a
dissipation of the petition
or he says, because they have gotten some
regulatory pushback and I've had to submit
to state regulation.
Like you could imagine that these things, well, first of all,
they will get a little bit of a profitability
bump from not having to spend money
to compete in that space, or you can imagine that they'll also get in most of those bumps.
So in the base case, I think you basically get a double, and then there are cases where you get
a triple or more, right?
I mean, I will say, I think if there was a Supreme Court ruling tomorrow that said
prediction markets are, let's just say illegal, right?
If there was a Supreme Court, I think the stock would more than double overnight, to be honest
with you.
Let me ask two last questions, and then I'll give it to you for last thoughts, and then we
can wrap the prediction markets.
We talked about it a little bit at the beginning, but, you know, let's say we continue living in the world we are in right now, and prediction markets for any which reason don't get regulated or get a light touch regulation, whatever you want to you talk about.
Draft Kings is moving into prediction markets as well.
We talked to what we had talked about was, hey, draft kings has a history of winning in these spaces.
You and Draft Kings both mentioned, hey, no one thought we could win in sports betting, but we mentioned when what do you think it looks like if Draft Kings, you know, if prediction markets don't get regulated and they have.
have to move into draft wings.
Like, do you think they stand a chance against the Kalshis, the polymarkets?
What do you think the end state economics look like if this becomes more a prediction
market than betting business?
I don't think there's any situation where, like, I wouldn't see that as a disaster, right?
Like, because like, I just don't think they necessarily have an advantage in this space and
also prediction markets are actually much more than network effects business, right?
So sports books are scale business, right, in terms of like marketing skill to attract customers.
But prediction markets, just the absolute number of customers on the platform makes a big difference,
which is why it's also important that they're able to avoid regulation and be nationwide and allow cross-border betting.
So, I mean, who knows where they settle, right?
But, like, they're already behind, right?
Like, I'm not sure there's any reasons in that they would be one of the top three or four,
in which case I'm not sure there's anything to bed that.
they would be able to build a substantial business.
So, I mean, I think that's like in the prediction market's world,
that means both that petition markets don't undergo any kind of regulation
to bring them under state control,
but also that they gain, like, they become like 50% sure of the market.
That is the big case.
I don't see a world where that happens,
and somehow Gatkins is still on top.
And yeah, that's just, yeah, that is the ultimate big case.
Last question.
and then we were, if we were recording this podcast in mid-2020, I think the main question would have been,
what is the economics of Draft Kings, Fandul, everything, a U.S. sports betting, and people would have
suggested, as you did, hey, look, we can look to the mature markets, Australia, England,
whatever, and say these margins, but I think people would have said, hey, draft king kind of had three years,
it's looking a little bit more competitive, margins are lower, and then parleyes really started
exploding, right? And parleyes, for those who don't know, you know, your average bet,
I think the house take is kind of like 10%.
And then as you start layering in more and more parley's,
the house take just goes up and up and up,
because they kind of exponentially increase all of the house odds.
You combine two bets that are at 10%,
then all of a sudden you're at 18%.
Whatever.
But I think margins really explode at parleyes.
And I just want to ask, you know,
parleyes, I'd say culture is driving there.
Every advertiser is pitching parlays.
You see these, you know, I think kids really love the 20 leg parlays
where one person bets a dollar and win tens thousands
and those always go viral and people, I know I do it, right?
Every now and then I'll watch the game and be like, hey, let's throw an eight-leg parley on for a dollar just to make this game more interesting.
I do wonder, you'll hear your people, parleyes are predatory, right?
The odds are so long, it's so favors the house.
It's sucking in younger kids.
Do you worry about crackdown risk on parley's at all?
Because I know there are people out there who say, hey, let's just eliminate them.
It's better for safer gambling.
Let's take some of these long-shot odds out.
Do you worry about that?
Because that would materially chinked economics of these business.
No, I don't.
I don't, I mean, so I don't worry about crackdown this for pollies in particular, right?
Like any more that I worry about, you know, part of the risk case for these businesses is that they are really regulated, right?
So, I mean, I think they might be a focus of pollies right now and it's like they're predatory, but it's like the vast majority of people are going to lose money sports back, right?
So there's a case that the entire thing is predatory, right?
So to the extent that I'm worried, it's more about just like, yeah, I mean, do the taxes keep going up?
And then, yes, I mean, and I think with Kaoshi and with the addiction workers being so aggressive and bringing more attention to the space, like, you're all seeing a little bit of like a general, like, did we unleash this terror with sports betting, kind of like a little bit of a moral panic?
And I think, given that this is the United States and we refuse to regulate guns when they
kill kindergartners, I don't think we're going to get, you know, super every regulation,
but it is a risk, right?
Like, just like, yeah, it's, I think, yeah, there's an extent to which every type of gambling
is a fundamentally predatory business in the sense that it's intended for the customers to lose
money, right?
And the counter argument is that it's just entertainment, but, you know.
Yeah.
No, well said.
I mean, I guess the other argument, I guess,
could have made was, hey, there are, you know,
once 2% of the populations who are ruining their lives
at these things, but I would just say, we've shown
no desire to crack down our hit on those.
So, no, I think you're with you,
it's a really interesting case just because,
and I think people can get this through the podcast.
Both of you and I believe the prediction markets things is insane,
but you've got this huge risk that is,
if the government does not step into shut down prediction markets,
like maybe the future is fine for Jeff Kings,
maybe they become a big prediction market player,
but they kind of lose this oligopoly they've got.
So on one hand,
you're relying on the government to crack down on this side.
But on the other hand, you've got like, hey, parlays and all these things are, all these
long shot bets are pretty darn predatory.
And you hear in some corners maybe should have banned them, but you're relying on the government,
no, we're not going to touch this, but we're definitely coming after that.
I will say that it's a little bit different, right?
Because like, I don't think the reason that the government's going to crackdown on
production markets is the moral panic aspect.
No, it's repetitive, right?
It's rather than.
Yeah, yeah.
But yes, like the reason.
we allow you to do things that, you know, people consider morally
we've already exploited it is that now the government's, yeah,
the government is using the sportsbook as a conduit, right?
Like, we're on the same page, my friend.
We're on the same page.
I was just saying it's funny that you want the government to crack down here, but not over
there, you know.
This has been really fun.
Great job walking through all this sort of stuff.
As you saw, I'm pretty passionate about this just as a follower.
Anything else you think we should have hit that we didn't hit or should it hit harder that we kind of
I will say though that like, um, and,
And, you know, I'll find a place to put up the thesis so people can read it.
Oh, you send me a link.
I didn't want to say, hey, I've got the secret thesis.
But if you send me a link, I'll include it in the show notes and everything.
So you can go look at it.
And I will say, though, like, I guess the part we don't spend as much time on,
but that I wanted to emphasize is that, like, I think, like, the Supreme Court angle
is really strong in terms of, like, the case against the prediction markets being legal
and being able to avoid state regulation.
I think what the Supreme Court,
what the addiction markets are claiming from a legal perspective,
kind of borders on the absurd in the way that it violates
100 years of American law,
including laws that the Supreme Court addressed pretty recently,
and the way it's basically an argument for handing over,
you know, regulation that we spent on that years crafting
to what is basically at this point,
just one guy at the CFTC and like it's it's I would be shocked at it flies right like
I'm completely with you and look the Supreme Court you can look back we sports gambling
became legal what 10 years ago yeah so they've invested us recently like we know like how
they think about this thing it's not it would just be it be completely shocking and by the way
not just that but you're going to have every league every sports league is going to file a brief
with the Supreme Court that says hey we need
need this regulated for, you know, integrity of the game and all this sort of stuff.
Every, you're going to have, you mentioned 20.
It's probably going to be 45 states.
Basically, I'm going to say, hey, you know, for financial reasons, for safety reasons,
all this sort of stuff.
But then it's also the last constituency that's really powerful here's the Native American tribes,
right?
So they've had special interest in gambling for a long time.
And as a result, a lot of them actually do have a pretty substantial amount of money.
And so having any gambling operation that simply does not respect that is just like, I mean,
so aside from all the state's attorney generals that are suing and being sued by Kaushi,
the Native American tribes are also going to be suing the prediction markets directly.
And I actually think there are cases even more straightforward, right?
Because there's no like federal censorship, right?
They're like all of these statutes that basically give Native American special rights.
And even there's this statute of Indian construction that basically means that you're supposed
to construe laws and a way not fame as the tribes.
And so what the prediction markets are trying to pull,
which is like draw some ambiguity in the law and use it to seize all this power,
it fails even harder when you start consuming the native marketing.
Perfect, perfect.
Cool.
Well, hey, this has been awesome.
If you send me drop box links or whatever to the write-up,
I can include in the show notes so everybody can go kind of read.
You know, he breaks down a lot of the different legal arguments in full detail
in the write-up.
So I'll include it there.
And but too, this has been great.
Great first appearance.
Love you, have you on for a second one.
We'll follow up and get you back on here in the near future.
Awesome.
Thanks.
It was great coming on the show.
A quick disclaimer.
Nothing on this podcast should be considered an investment advice.
Guests or the hosts may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast.
Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor.
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