Young and Profiting with Hala Taha - Tali Sharot: The Neuroscience of Positivity, How Our Brains Create Our Future | E236

Episode Date: July 31, 2023

While working on her Ph.D. on traumatic memory in New York, Dr. Tali Sharot witnessed the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers. She set out to investigate people's memories of the terrorist attacks and discovered that although people felt their memories were as accurate as a videotape, they were often filled with errors. She decided then to focus her research on how emotion affects people’s memories and decisions. In today’s episode, Tali tells us about the ways we are hardwired to be optimists and what determines how, and if, we are able to influence others.   Dr. Tali Sharot is the director of the Affective Brain Lab. She is a Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience in the Department of Experimental Psychology and The Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry at University College London and on the faculty of the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences at MIT. Sharot’s research integrates neuroscience, behavioral economics, and psychology to study how emotion and motivation influence people’s beliefs, decisions, and social interactions.   In this episode, Hala and Tali will discuss:  - Why memories are not as accurate as we think they are - Why most of us have an optimism bias - How optimism bias helps us to survive - Why we’re optimistic about our own lives but not the world around us - Ways to bolster optimism and better performance - Ways to deter negative actions in others - How hope and fear influence people’s beliefs - Why emotions influence our decisions more than facts - Why fake news goes viral - And other topics… Dr. Tali Sharot is the director of the Affective Brain Lab. She is a Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience in the Department of Experimental Psychology and The Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry at University College London and on the faculty of the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences at MIT. Sharot holds a BA in Economics and Psychology from Tel Aviv University and a Ph.D. from New York University. Sharot’s research integrates neuroscience, behavioral economics, and psychology to study how emotion and motivation influence people’s beliefs, decisions, and social interactions.    Resources Mentioned: Tali’s Website: https://affectivebrain.com/ Tali’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/affectivebrain  Tali’s Book The Influential Mind: What the Brain Reveals About Our Power to Change Others: https://www.amazon.com/Influential-Mind-Reveals-Change-Others-ebook/dp/B06XC621TK  Tali’s Book Optimism Bias: Why We're Wired to Look on the Bright Side: https://www.amazon.com/Optimism-Bias-Were-Wired-Bright/dp/1780332637   LinkedIn Secrets Masterclass, Have Job Security For Life: Use code ‘podcast’ for 30% off at yapmedia.io/course.    Sponsored By:  Shopify - Go to youngandprofiting.co/shopify to take your business to the next level The Kelly Roach Show - Listen to The Kelly Roach show on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. Green Chef - Go to GreenChef.com/yap50 and use code yap50 to get 50% off plus free shipping. Millionaire University - Find The Millionaire University on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts Pipedrive - Go to youngandprofiting.co/pipedrive and get 20% off Pipedrive for 1 year! More About Young and Profiting Download Transcripts - youngandprofiting.com  Get Sponsorship Deals - youngandprofiting.com/sponsorships Leave a Review -  ratethispodcast.com/yap Watch Videos - youtube.com/c/YoungandProfiting   Follow Hala Taha LinkedIn - linkedin.com/in/htaha/ Instagram - instagram.com/yapwithhala/ TikTok - tiktok.com/@yapwithhala Twitter - twitter.com/yapwithhala   Learn more about YAP Media Agency Services - yapmedia.io/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's episode is sponsored by Shopify and Zbiotics. Shopify simplifies selling online and in-person, so you can focus on successfully growing your business. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com-profiting, and that's all lowercase. Engineered by a team of PhD microbiologists, Zbiotics is a probiotic drink that breaks down the byproduct of alcohol, which is responsible for rough mornings after drinking.

Head to zbiotics.com-sash-profiting and use the code profiting at checkout to save 15% off. If you want someone to learn and you want them to change your beliefs, you need to really think carefully about how you're framing the information. Because if you just give them negative information and like, oh, if you smoke, you'll get cancer. People think, well, you know, I have good genes, my grandma smoked until she was a hundred, so they kind of discount this information. Can I frame it to highlight the opportunity for progress rather than decline? That is kind of a better approach.

For most of our existence as a species, we didn't really have, like, math and statistics. The way that we really used to learn is we looked around at our little community and just noticed, oh this person did this and you know now they're ill. We would take these anecdotal examples and that's how we learned. If you tell me a story, it becomes much more emotional. I can imagine it as vivid, it elicits emotion. That's why it's very impactful. What is up, young and profitors? You're listening to YAP, Young and Profiting podcast,

where we interview the brightest minds in the world and unpack their wisdom into actionable advice that you can use in your daily life. I'm your host, Hallitaha. Thanks for tuning in and get ready to listen, learn, and profit. Yeah, fam. You know how we here at Young & Profiting love to learn more about how our brains work and how we can harness their innate potential to improve our lives, relationships, and endeavors. Well, today we have a very special guest in someone who's spent her life learning more about how

our brains help us navigate the world, and especially the other people we encounter around us. Professor Talley Sherrett is a neuroscientist and the director of the Effective Brain Lab. She's a professor of cognitive neuroscience in the Department of Experimental Psychology at the University College of London, and she's also on the faculty of the Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences at MIT. She's the author of two very popular and influential books, The Optimism Bias and The Influential Mind. Today, we're going to talk with professors shared about everything from the ways we're hardwired to be optimists to what determines how and if we are able to influence others. Tally, welcome to Young & Profiting Podcast.

Thank you for having me. Nice to see you. I am very excited for today's show, but before we get into all your work about optimism and influence, I want to understand how you got started with the topic of optimism to begin with. So I heard that it was originally sparked by accident. You were living in New York City years ago. Tell us how you first got interested in the topic of optimism. Yeah, so I was doing my PhD in New York City at NYU. And I was studying emotional memories, specifically traumatic memories.

How do we remember the traumatic events? And while I was doing this, 9-11 happened in New York City. And so we studied people who were on the island, doing the attacks. After the fact, we studied their memories while we recorded their brain activity to see what is a difference between these memories of really arousing traumatic events and just memories of everyday events. So I completed my PhD and I went to do a short postdoc at Harvard and when I got there I saw that people were studying how we imagine future events which I thought was really interesting. And I was thinking, well, it'll be interesting to see if what I found so far about how we

remember traumatic emotional events is similar in terms of how the brain works and brain mechanisms to how we imagine traumatic negative events that can happen in the future. So I started to do an experiment. And the experiment was quite simple. I had people describe negative events that could happen to them in the future. I gave them a prompt, for example, I said, imagine the breakup of a romantic relationship, right? Negative event. And I was going to look at their imagination and what happens in the brain. But what I found was that a lot of people, what they tended to do when I asked them to imagine these negative events, they switched them into positive events or, you know, negative events that they're managed to imagine these negative events. They switched them into positive events or negative events that they're managed to correct in some ways.

So for example, if I said, imagine the breakup of her magic relationship, someone said, I broke up with my girlfriend and then I found a better one. Or if I said, imagine that you're stuck of your apartment and you don't have the keys. And so someone said, okay, I'm stuck, I don't have the keys. I call the land lady, she comes in, she lets me in, right?

So they kept doing these things. And even, I also wanted to compare this to just imagining just, you know, boring regular events in the future. But what happened there was, again, people twisted those boring events to make them magical. So I said, imagine getting a haircut in the future. And someone said, I imagine getting my haircuts and donating the hair to locks of love.

Was it charity for kids with cancer? And then I went to celebrate with all my friends in my favorite restaurant. These boring events in the future seem to be so magical. And the negative events are things that we can solve. So this was not good for my study, because how am I going to look at what happens in the brain when you imagine really negative events, if you're not imagining negative events, right?

This was a problem, and I tried all sorts of different prompts and so on. And it took me a while, which now seems a little bit funny, but at the time, it took me around to realize, actually, this is super interesting, it's perhaps more interesting than what I originally set out to study, what's going on. So I started looking into the literature,

and it turns out that in this separate field, which I wasn't really knowledgeable about at the time, behavioral economics, was a whole literature about this thing called the Optimus Embeys, which is people's tendency to imagine the future as better than the past of the present. And their tendency to imagine the future is better than the past of the present. And their tendency to imagine the likelihood of positive things happening more than they actually are probably will and discounting the likelihood of experiencing negative events. So I thought that was really interesting.

So that study turned into the study of optimism bias, which led to a lot of studies later on. That's super interesting. And something that I want to dig on is going back to when you were talking about you being in New York with the 9-11 attacks. From my understanding, you also did a study where you were trying to analyze people's memories. And what happened was, is that 11 months later after the attacks, people remembered the event differently than what actually they had mentioned when they first told you their memory of the event. So can you talk to us about how their memories changed and why you think their memories changed? Yeah. So we actually didn't test them at two points in time, but other people did. We just sent them later on. But in other studies, it has been shown

that these memories for traumatic events, including 9-11, they're not as accurate as we think they are. And to some extent, this is not surprising, because like, no, when you think about your memories, if I ask you like what you did 11 months ago, and I even if I say, oh, you know, it was June, and you were in holiday, and you know, can you tell me about what happened on Tuesday? You're not going to remember it very well, right? Or you'll tell me some story, but probably

what you're saying is not quite right. It's not exactly the people that you said were there. So in some ways, like the fact that memories are not an accurate representation of what happened is not surprising. But the reason it's surprising in this case is that when it comes to these really emotional events like 9-11, we believe that our memories are really accurate. When we kind of relive them, it feels like a videotape that you're just pressing play and it just happens. So it feels like I remember every single thing, what I was wearing, what I was smelling, what I was hearing, I remember every single thing, what I was wearing, what I was smelling, what I was hearing, but turns out they're not actually more accurate than everyday events. There's a lot of mistakes, but the difference is they feel accurate.

And that's a difference. If it's your, you know, someone's wedding day or the birth of a child or the breakup of a relationship, these kind of emotional memories that stay with us, the car accident. When we think back to these both very positive, very negative events, it feels like we're just experiencing it as it is. And so we believe it is. But in fact, it's not.

Every time you come up with a memory, and emotional memories, we come up with a lot, we retrieve them and relive them a lot. We're changing them a little bit. Every time we think about whether it's like our wedding, every time we think about that day, we're changing the memory a little bit because we're kind of retrieving it, but now we're thinking about it in a new perspective because now, you know, we're older, different things happen. And so that changes a little bit. So next time you're retrieving something that's not quite

what happened and so on and so on and so forth. But we're not, we don't realize that that is a case. It's so interesting to think about. And what I'm curious about is how memories evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Memories, are they really about remembering the past or do they help us do something else? Right. So I guess, you know, if we go back to what I said

at the beginning that I was studying memory and then I was, well, it's interesting to study imagination and there was a whole kind of literature coming up saying, well, in fact, there's a load, a lot of overlap between how you imagine the future and how you remember the past. Because in order to imagine the future, you have to retrieve memories, right? If I ask you, please imagine your next vacation, you're going to come up with memories from your past vacations, maybe vacations of other people, things that you've seen on TV, and you're going to piece in these little pieces of information to create something you, you on the beach having a cocktail, right? But really, this imagination of something new is basically like a puzzle of old things put together in a new way. So if you think about it like that, that is what memory is for. Memory is in order to enhance

and enable us to predict the future, to plan the future. That's why we have our memories. And if you look at the brain system that's important for memory, including a region called the hippocampus, which is very important for memory. Those are exactly the same regions that are activated when you imagine the future. We really have our memory not so we can like, reminiscent of what happened in the past, but in order so we can plan ahead, and if we can plan ahead, we can survive better, right? We can be prepared for what's about to come. Yeah. And so would you say that we tend to remember positive events more than negative events that happen in our lives?

Well, it turns out that it's not that you remember more positive or negative. What's really important is how arousing it is, how strong, how salient, right? So if you have a very, very positive event, you're going to remember it very vividly. And if you have a very, very negative event, you're going to remember it very vividly. And if you have a very, very negative event, you're going to remember that very vividly as well. So it's really about this arousal response that we have. So that makes sense. So the more aroused an event is the more likely you're going to remember it, positive or negative. So help us further understand this idea of the optimism bias. Can you define it for us? Yeah, so it's our tendency to imagine the future to be better than the past and the present,

and to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing positive events, such as having a long, happy marriage, professional success, having talented kids, and underestimating the likelihood of experiencing negative events such as having an illness, getting COVID, being an accident, getting a divorce, things like that. Yeah, and then so I have to imagine that having this optimism bias, it was something that happened during evolution so that we could survive. So how does having this optimism bias actually help us survive or help us survive in the past? Having these positive expectations of the future means that your mental health is better because positive expectations make you happy, reduces stress and anxiety and so on.

And mental health, good mental health is related to good physical health, right? So that's one thing. The other thing, it enhances your motivation. If I think, ooh, my podcast is gonna be a huge success, you're gonna put more time and effort into it, right? Cause you think, oh, I'm gonna get tons of people listening. If you think, well, no one's gonna listen to this, you're not gonna put time and effort,

and it's said bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? And if you think about it, people with positive expectations, they go out, they try to do things to get to those goals that they think I can reach. But if you think about people who have negative expectations, and a lot of time people with depression tend to have negative expectations, they think, well, I'm not going to get that job. I'm not going to find that relationship that I want. And so they don't try. They stay in bed because if I'm not going to get it, what's the point really? And again, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. So if you think even about humans exploring the rest of the world, leaving Africa to go to explore other continents,

they had to believe that there's something there for them to find and something that's better than what they already have. You know, anytime you leave your environment and go and try something else, there's this expectations, ooh, I have something there for me to find that's better than what I already have. So that's the evolutionary advantage. It enhances your motivation,

your mental health, exploration. But of course, there's a downside. If I'm underestimating the likelihood that I will get COVID, the likelihood that I will get cancer, I don't take precautionary action. I am underestimating the likelihood that I will get COVID, the likelihood that I will get cancer, I don't take precautionary action. I'm underestimating the likelihood of being an accident. I might not wear a helmet when I bike. And so that can cause negative outcomes as well in the financial domain.

I'm underestimating my financial risk. Then I might take more risks than I should and that's a negative part of it. So there's this disadvantage and also advantages, right, to balance out. So a lot of people have been thinking for a long time, well, okay, yes, there are disadvantages in their advantages. Probably the advantages overall outweigh the disadvantages. And this is why we have this bias. But in fact, what we have found recently is that we have an optimism bias, but not all the time. We mostly have an optimism bias when we are relatively safe environments. If we put people in dangerous environments, then they start changing the way that they process information, and they are less

likely to have an optimism by it. And if you think about it, that could be evolutionary advantageous, because if you're like in the jungle, and there's lions all around you, you don't want to underestimate the likelihood of being eaten up. But if you, you know, relatively safe environment like you and I are in today, okay, it's probably not a bad thing to have an optimism by which moves us forward. So it turns out that the brain has this little switch. Put us in a very dangerous environment. It reduces the optimism by its put us in a really safe environment. It's like, okay, now

it's safe for us. Let's have an optimism by its. We're not necessarily have correct predictions about the future. They'll be overly optimistic, but it could be helpful for us. And I think that is what was really advantageous and helped us evolve as a species. Yeah, and I'm really happy that you made that distinction because my initial thoughts when I was learning about the optimism bias was it was so different from what I've heard from other people who've come on the show talking about the negativity bias and how we're more risk-versed and that's how we were able to survive and not get eaten by lions. So it's great that you mentioned that it's really based on the context or environment.

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your business to the next level today. Again, that's Shopify.com slash profiting to take your business to the next level today. Again, that's Shopify.com slash profiting. So speaking of it kind of evolving over time, how well as we age, how does the optimism bias change as we age? Yeah, and that actually takes us back to the same kind of idea of when you're stressed, you have less and optimism is because what we find is that the optimism bias is quite high in kids. And then it starts going down, down, down, down, gets to like minimum in your midlife.

So people in their midlife almost don't have even the optimism bias. And then it starts becoming bigger again. So as we age, it becomes bigger and bigger and bigger. And then it reaches quite a high level, late in life. So it's a bit of a u-shape like that. Now, we don't really know why there's a u-shape, but one hypothesis is that it's a amount of stress that we have in life, because really it's in midlife that you have the most amount of stress. It's the peak of your professional life as well

as you might need to take care of children and elderly parents. So there's a lot of stressors that are really salient in midlife that are less so in kids and teenagers and the elderly. It's not that you don't have stressors when you're a child and when you're older, but it's really midlife that people at least report the most amount of stress. A lot of people think of themselves as pessimists. How many pessimists are really out there, do you think? Yeah, so there's a huge discrepancy between how someone views themselves and what they actually are. It turns out that we're not very good at assessing our own optimism. More than not, I would say people come in and they say, oh, I'm a pessimist or I'm a realist. But then when you test them, you actually have

do them the test and quantify it turns out that 80% of us have an optimism bias. Now, it doesn't mean that you're, if you have an optimist about every single part of your life, right? I mean, there you could have been like more optimistic about your personal life and not professional life or vice versa. But in general, 80% have an optimism bias. Then 20% the rest of them, half of them have a pessimistic bias. So about 10% of the population in general tend to underestimate positive events and overestimate negative events. So they're pessimistic. And then 10% of the general population tend not to have a bias at all. That doesn't mean that they're pessimistic. And then 10% of the general population tend not to have a bias at all. That doesn't mean that they are good at predicting anything, right? So they have a lot of mistakes when they're predicting,

but sometimes the mistake are overly optimistic. Some of their overly pessimistic is just cancels each other out. So really just about 10% to answer your question. Yeah, very, very little, which is I always thought it was like 50-50 or something, but it's interesting to think that like most people are actually pretty optimistic. Let's talk about the difference between being individually optimistic about our own lives versus how we view the world. Yeah, so that's another really important distinction between when I say 80% of us has an optimistic bias, it's really important to mention that this is true about our own experiences and our own

life and our own prospects and perhaps those that are close to us, our children or family. It's not about the world at large. In fact, if anything, people have a pessimistic view about global issues, leadership in their country, you know, political issues and so on. All of these like social big issues, people, if anything, tend to be pessimistic. So we call this private optimism, but public despair. So people tend to be, I will be okay. However, you know, the rest of us, not so.

And you see this again and again, if there's like a market collapse or so, people think, okay, I'm going to be fine, but in general, the world is going downhill. Even when you talk about climate change, there are studies that show that people say, yes, there's climate change and it's going to have terrible effects on most of the world. But then when you ask about their own little town, they think, oh, that is, we're going to be fine, right? We're not quite. There's always a reason why their little town will be okay, they will be okay. So when you go online and you see all these very negative opinions, and so it's not about usually people's own prospects, but about the general state of the world.

Yeah, and I'd love to hear more about the pros and cons of this optimism bias when it comes to our own lives. So what are the consequences of having an optimism bias as well as what are the benefits of having it? As we say, the big benefit, it's enhanced your motivation and that causes you to go out and try things, take actions, right? If you think I can get ahead and get a promotion at work, then you try harder and the likely that you will get it is greater. If you think, yes, I can find my perfect partner. You're more likely to go ahead and have lots of dates and stuff, and you know, because you try things rather than if you just have a negative view. And in fact, it's been shown that interpranors tend to be more optimistic than the rest of the population,

which makes sense. They need to be, right? In order to, because a chance is of succeeding as interpranor is quite low. And so you have to overestimate your chances in order to go out and put the effort and really, really try. So that's really the benefit, as well as just maintaining

good health. There is, in fact benefit as well as just maintaining good health. There is, in fact, a correlation between depression and pessimism. So one symptom of depression is pessimism. So having optimism is good for just your mental health. And it turns out that people who are successful in all sorts of fields, telling to be optimistic, whether it's in business and academia, it's sports, CEOs are way more optimistic than the rest of the population. So these are all the benefits, and then the negative part of it is not taking enough precautionary action to protect yourself

because you're underestimating risk, whether it's health risk, whether it is financial risk. If we underestimate it, then we tend to not take enough precautionary action, and so that can put us in danger. And I think the solution that I usually talk about is you don't necessarily need to change your views. You don't necessarily need to have negative expectations. And even if you want to, it's really hard to do that. What you want is to say, okay, I think I'm gonna be fine, but I know that there's an optimism bias,

so I'm gonna put in a policy in place to protect myself. For example, the British government has a book that they call the Green Book, which is recommendations for project appraisers, and they say in the Green Book that there's an optimism bias, and because of that, people tend to underestimate how long projects will take to complete and how much they would cost. And I'm sure every listener can think about such instances in your own life, whether it's in business, right? That happens all the time. But also in your personal

life, you're renovating a house. Oh, it always takes like 10 times longer than you imagine, right? You're planning a wedding, whatever it is. It always takes longer and always costs more and so in the green book They say okay in order to try to correct that We need to adjust all the budgets in the average government for the optimist advice The way that they do that and for example, they did it for the London Olympics They looked at similar past projects, in these case, past Olympics, looked at the predictions of how long you will take, how much it would cost, and then the actual, how long did it take, how long

did it cost? Calculated the average bias and then added it to their own estimates. It was actually a very long PDF on how they do it. So it's not as simple as I described, but that's a principle of it. So that's a great example. They didn't say, you know, change what you actually think is going to happen. They're right, right now, what you think is going to happen. Okay. Now, go back and adjust it according to what we know from past experience is a likely error, is a likely bias. And you can do that by looking at past events that other people were involved in, like other Olympics. But also, if it's something you're trying to correct your own estimates and something that you do again and again, you could just have a record of, this is what

I think if it's investment, right? This is what I think the profit is going to be. And then later, okay, this is the profit, what the profit was. This is what I think. This is what the profit. And if you do that enough time, you can actually see for yourself, okay, this is the bias that I usually have, or like you're hiring people, let's say, you know, so you write down your expectations and then your actual evaluation of them after the fact and see what the error was. It's also helpful to see why did you have that mistake. Is it that you didn't have enough information? Is it that you were overconfident? So while making your estimate, it's good to also record, what do I know at the moment

upon which I'm making this prediction? How confident am I in this prediction? And then later on, then you might be able to pinpoint what is the source of an error and then correct it by pulling a policy to help you. This is really great, it's really practical in terms of how to make sure that we don't have the consequences of the optimism bias. But what if we're on the other spectrum and we feel like we're not optimistic enough?

Is that something that we can change? It is possible to change to some degree. And one of the most common suggestions is based on studies conducted by Martin Seligman. What Martin Seligman did, he took a group of individuals who were pessimistic, most of them did have depression to some extent, and they be mild. And he trained them to think like an optimist. What does that mean? Well, one thing that optimists tend to do is they tend to evaluate positive events in an optimistic manner.

What does that mean? Let's say something good happened to you. You got a job that you really wanted. What the optimists tend to do is say, oh, I got the job because of traits that are stable within me. I got the job because I'm really good with people, right? And so if I'm really good in people, that means I'm going to be good with people in the future, too. So this means I'll get more jobs in the future.

And also, it means not only will I get a good job, I'll probably have more friends. And so now they generalize it, right? So something good happens, they interpret it. It happens because of something that is personal, it's stable, it can generalize. When something bad happens, they tend to do the reverse. So you didn't get a job, they tend to say, well, it's not so much me per say, they happen to be a better candidate, or I didn't have time to study for the interview this time, and this is why it happened. And so what this means, it's this negative event has no consequences to other things in their life.

They don't, right? It's like, well, I didn't learn for this specific way. I didn't study enough, but this doesn't mean that I'm going to not study next time. It doesn't mean that this is going to affect how many friends I have. So they do the exact opposite for negative. So that's what Martin Seligman trained the East group of individuals to do. He trained them every time something positive happened. Let's interpret in this kind of optimistic matter. When a negative thing happened, interpret it in the positive manner. And his data suggests that he was successful to some degree. They became more optimistic and as a result, actually, we're healthier physically and mentally. So less appointments to the doctor and things like that. Talk to us about how we learn differently,

whether we're getting positive information or negative information. One of the reasons that we tend to have an optimism bias is what do we do when we have information in front of us, right? So this is actually what we discovered, which is when you learn something that's better than what you expected. For example, you think there's going to be like a million listeners. And I say, you know what, my data suggests there's going to be two million listeners, then you quickly change your estimate. And you say, oh, well, okay. In that case, you know, maybe

1.9, right? So you change it quite a bit because I told you something that's better than you expected. But if you say, I think I'm going to have a million listeners. And I say, you know, according to my data, only 50,000. So this is way more worse than what you expected than you would say, yeah, she doesn't really know what she's talking about. She doesn't have the right data. And so you don't change your estimate much. You might say, well, maybe not a million, maybe 900,000, but you don't adjust it much when there's negative information versus positive information.

So when we do this, we see this again and again. People learn much more. It's not they don't learn from negative information, they do, but they turn to learn much better, quicker when they hear something that's really better than what they expected about their own prospects, then something that's negative. And if you kind of walk around the world doing this all the time, well, that explains why you have these predictions that are better than what reality really is. These kind of little shift in how you learn

from the positive versus the negative causes us to have this bias in our predictions of the future. And it's helpful to understand that because now when we come up with our own conclusions, we can look at it with that lens and understand like maybe I'm being overly optimistic here And I need to pay attention to other signs or facts and data rather than how I'm feeling about it internally So let's move on to another topic here You've talked about one of the ways to bolster optimism and better performance in ourselves is through positive feedback So what happens in our brains when we hear something

positive on something? The same study that I just told you about how we learn more from unexpected positive and negative. When we looked at people's brain activity while we were giving them information, we saw that regions in the brain were encoding information that's better than expected, much more precisely than information that was worse. So when I told you oh two million listeners, the activity in your brain, we could use statistics and math to show it's really registering the difference between how good information is that I gave you and what you expected, right? But when I gave you information that's worse than

expected, when I said only 50,000 listeners, the brain wasn't really encoding very well this difference between what you expected and what I gave you because you think that I'm not giving you right information. So your brain is like not bothering us, it's like you know, it says BS, it's not encoded as well. So that's what happens in the brain. And what this means then, it means that if you want someone to learn, if you want to give someone information and you want them to change your beliefs, you need to really think carefully about how you're framing the information. Because if you just give them negative information, like if you smoke, you'll get cancer.

People are thinking, well, you know, I have good genes, my grandma smoked until she was a hundred. So they kind of discount this information. So you might try to think about how can I give people information in a way that we'll get them to where I want them to go, but can I frame it to highlight the opportunity for progress rather than decline? So for example, instead of telling someone if you take a route A, you will lose time in manning, which is highlighting the negative. You might say, if you take route B, you will lose time in many, which is highlighting the negative. You might say, if you take route B, you will gain time in money.

So highlighting what needs to be done to get to the goals, just reframing. Okay, so if we want somebody to do something, we want to try to freeze in a positive way, but then on the opposite end of the spectrum, if we want to deter somebody to not do something, how do we frame it? This actually relates to a whole different phenomena that we've also saw, that there's this relationship in the brain because of how we evolved between expecting good things in action. So let's say I'm thirsty, I want to drink, I need to move my hand and drink, right? I need to take in action in order to get my reward, which is a coffee.

This is a way life is often to get what you want, you have to do something. I need a promotion, I need to work, right? I need to go, wanna eat that piece of chocolate, I need to go and I need to get it. I need to do something. In country, often, not always, but often, in order to avoid the bad stuff, you often need

to just not do anything. Just stay away. You know, you want to avoid bad people, you want to avoid poison, you want to avoid dip waters, you need to not do anything. And also, you can overcome this. But this is why, because of this tie between action and reward and not action and punishment, our brain has evolved to tie these things together. And so now when we have a reward, it's easier to act to get it, right?

And so that's why to motivate people, you want them to do something out. You want them to work harder. You want your kids to tidy up the room. You'll say, well, if you tidy up the room, you will find your favorite toy at the bottom of the pile, right? So you highlight, this is every part that you can get if you act. On the other hand, if we want someone not to do something, your kid not to eat the cookie, then you might threaten them with punishment, right? Or if you want someone not to share confidential information,

then maybe a punishment will be more effective because in our brain, punishments are related to not action and rewards to action. So that's another thing to think about when we're trying to frame our message. Is it that we want people to do something or not to do something? But of course, I have to say in all of these things, these are kind of very broad mechanisms that we find when we look at how the brain works.

We're very sophisticated creatures. We can overcome all of this, right? So these are kind of the basic broad strokes that we should consider when we're thinking about how to provide feedback, how to frame our messages. But of course, it doesn't mean that if you tell someone, if you're not sharing confidential information, I'll give you some money, it won't work, right? It's just these very broad principles to consider. We'll be right back after a quick break from our sponsors.

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slash profiting and use the code profiting at checkout for 15% off. Thank you to Zbiotics for sponsoring this episode. I'm curious to understand your perspective on like, let's say we're a marketer for like a government or something and we're trying to get people to wear their seat belts. What would be the way that you would recommend that they write their marketing messaging for that? There's many different elements that could work.

One is actually social information. What other people are doing. That's very helpful and people use it all the time, saying something like 90% of individuals wear their seatbelt when they get into a car. And even better, 90% of individuals in your neighborhood wear a seatbelt. And that's been used a lot. If you go to the airport and you put water in your bottle,

it says, you know, two million people put water in the bottle today. So it's telling you about the good behavior of others. And that's really motivating. You're like, oh, all these people are doing this good thing. I want to do it too. I want to be part of the big number. So that's one very helpful way, if marketers want to influence what people are doing.

And now there is progress monitoring. People use this a lot with like health apps, right? How many steps did I take today? It's monitoring your progress all the time. And that kind of, it's rewarding. You're like, oh, I did like 10,000 steps today. You're like, oh, you do a few steps and you see the numbers go up. And that's really motivating for people.

You have that in health apps, but you can have it in a lot of different domains as well. I mean, you could imagine a device where you go in the car and, but you can have it in a lot of different domains as well. I mean, you could imagine a device where you go in the car and every time you click, it says, well done, you did the safe thing, right? An automatic tap in the back kind of thing. And what's helpful is that if those positive feedback or other rewards are immediate, you did something immediately, it tells you like,

good job, rather than like, you can imagine, I put the belt in and then by the end of the ride, it tells me good job, right? So that's not great, because it really to be most effective, you want a really strong connection in time between what it is that you did and the feedback that you got. This is why social media is so addictive. It's because it's using all of these tricks all the time. You post something, you get immediate rewards from other people, it is monitoring the number, you can see the number of likes and they go up, you can see what other people are doing. So it basically is taking all these things that we know, shape human behavior and putting

it together in this one platform. It's so interesting that stuff. So, I want to stick on this idea of influencing people. How about hope and fear? How does hope and fear play into the way that we could potentially influence people? Emotion is definitely something that is important in the actions that we choose to do, right? We choose to do actions in order to feel good or to avoid feeling bad. And so if you highlight that to people, that would be something that can motivate them. As we said before, action is usually related with kind of an anticipation of reward. So if you want to induce action, highlighting the hope, highlighting the goal is better.

Fear, on the other hand, as we mentioned before, it can cause freezing inaction. I'm afraid of the deep waters. I'm afraid of poison, it causes me inaction. And so, if you want to motivate people to act, to go out and vote, to put a helmet on, and so on, then in fact, highlighting the good that can come out of it is more helpful. Regardless of that, of just how effective it is, you'll also like like need to consider do I really want to stress people out right? Is it something that I really need to do is there's no other way because if you cause fear that has a negative effect in people's mental health So you need to think about is this really worth it in this instant? Is there something else that I could do?

Let's talk about influencing others and get into some of the content in your book from the influential mind. So I think one of the most head-turning things that you talk about is how our brains are not wired to be very persuaded by facts and data. Can you talk to us about how people are not driven by facts? Yeah, so I mean we see this all the time, whether it's looking at things like affective sea of vaccines or climate change, or you know there's all this data and all the time, whether it's looking at things like affective C of vaccines or climate change, or there's all this data and all this dumpers, but that's not necessarily what is influencing people's

beliefs. And if you think about it, it makes sense if we look back at evolutionary perspective for most of our existence as a species, we didn't understand math and statistics. We didn't really have these ways of putting together graph and like calculating the exact percentage. It wasn't something that we at least not at this like big data kind of ability that we have now.

And so the way that we really used to learn is we looked around at our little community, our little group of people and And just notice, so this person did this and you know, now they're ill, this person did this and they seem happy. We hear someone said, Oh, you know, this person ate a berry and now they're dead. We would take these like anecdotal examples and that's how we learned. And it makes sense that yes, you know, we have evolved and we can use numbers and so on. But our instinct is if you tell me a story, that is just like much more impactful in general, or at least the first instinct is, ooh, I'm really moved by that. And a lot of times, one of the reasons is that usually when you tell a story, it's about a specific individual,

and it becomes much more emotional. And if it's more emotional, I pay more attention, I'm more interested and so I learn better. Numbers, I usually a little bit dry. So even if you say 8,000 people got ill from drinking polluted water, versus tell me about this one person, no, Maria has two kids, she drank the water, she got ill. So now it's like, I can imagine it as vivid. It like talks to you. It elicits emotion. And so that's why it's very impactful. So it doesn't mean that we don't want to have the data. We don't want to have the numbers. We want to have them and we want to share them. We just need to make sure that we are not

relying on them on the numbers and data when we're described and when we're sharing to others only that, right? If we could add to that an example to just illustrate, that's always helpful. It's helpful in anything, right? If I describe my science, I can show you my graphs or I can give you an example of how this relates to your life. If I give you this specific information, it's always just easier for us to understand and therefore to remember as well. Yeah, humans, we love stories, right? Storytelling is our favorite thing. So let's talk about how we

pick and choose the information that we want to consider when we're making a decision or determining a belief. It's always been the case that we don't treat all information equally, and really we shouldn't. There's some more reliable information than others, and that means who do we talk to, how reliable they are. But it really became more clear now in the information age, because we go online and there's just like an infinite amount of information. How do I know what it is that I'm going to believe? What is it that I'm going to actually just read? And so I think it became more of a problem. These biases that we have in how we

go out to select what information to consume and also what to do with that information. Is it going to change my beliefs or not? There's two really strong biases that we've seen in the literature. One is called a confirmation bias, which is our tendency to go out and seek and believe information that already confirms what we think is true. And this could be like, it can be in politics, but it can be anything. If I have a belief, and you're just telling me something that fits well, I'm like, ooh, okay, yeah, that definitely works. I can see that because it fits what I really believe.

So that's a confirmation bias. We're much more likely to take in that information, that confirms what we already believe in information that goes against it. The other is called the Disarbility bias, which is a little bit like the optimism bias that I described, which is if I give you information that you want to believe, it makes you happy, tells you something good about yourself, you're going to take it in more than information that's negative. And you're also going to go out and seek it. There's a really great study that was done by free behavioral economists.

What they wanted to do is see, when do people log into their accounts to check on their stocks? And what they found is that, in general, when the market was going up, people logged in more. Without any intention of making a transaction or anything like that,

and they could control for that, they could show it's like, not with that intention. And the reason if, as a market's going up, you're like, oh, I probably gained some money and I want a bit of a sniff of the good news. When the market was going down, people avoided logging in, right? It's like, I don't want to know.

I don't know how much I lost. And that was true as long as the negative information could be reasonably avoided. So when you do have like big falls in the market, people do then log in and start freaking out. And usually it's a bit too late by that time. But these like little ups and towns, if it's up, I go in, I'm like, oh, got some more. If it's down, it's like, well, I'm not going to look today. So it makes sense. We want to, you know, in some ways, it makes sense. We want to feel good. And one thing that makes us feel good is good information, good news.

Yeah. And I'd love to actually ask you a follow up question to that. Why is fake news so viral? It is very hard on average to know what's fake and not because the people who design these kind of misinformation fake news, they have a good understanding of psychology. Mostly, they understand what type of information do people want and who wants it? So they can design that piece of news to make it more viral. They're like, well, let's add this kind of emotion to it. Let's target people who in general, that's a point of view. So confirmation bias kicks in, disability bias kicks in, they can have other people who are like part of it,

try to show that actually other people believe it. So they're very aware of these things and they use them. So that is a problem. And I think regardless of huge problem is there's just not enough incentives not to do that. There is not enough oversight. There isn't enough punishment. And so people are just not incentivized not to go ahead and spread these types of content. And so knowing all this, Tali, how can we actually protect ourselves a bit and think more rationally?

Is that possible? I think first is knowledge, right? To know about how your mind works, how you make decisions, how you process information, that's the first important thing. It's not enough, but it's a beginning. Now that you know about these biases, which you can learn from podcasts, such as this books, talks online, is to think about, okay, how is this likely to impact my life? My specific job, my specific line of work,

or something that's important to me in my personal life. And once you figure that out, then you can ask yourself, okay, is there something that I can do, a policy that I can put in place to protect myself? So for example, I like to work, if I back, well, sometimes I back to work every day, I don't always put a helmet on, right? And this is not good. And so I can say, okay, apart the reason I don't do it is I'm underestimating

my risk. So how am I going to correct for this? I can correct for this with knowledge of other behavioral phenomena. So for example, I can tell myself, look, every time you get to work and you have a helmet on, I can tell myself, look, every time you get to work and you have a helmet on, you can give yourself an immediate reward because we just said immediate reward is super powerful. Have a little chocolate. Every time you go to work and you don't have the helmet on, you have to give money to a charity that you dislike, right? So you kind of like a little punishment. So if we know these things, we could figure out what we could do to So if we know these things, we could figure out what we could do to overcome the potential negative outcomes.

Or for example, you know that you want to work out, but you don't really like doing it and also you're underestimating the negative impact of not working out, then you say, okay, let's again, we could do this a little immediate reward. Every time I go on the treadmill, I will allow myself to watch some like reality TV that I usually don't allow myself to watch. So it's a little treat that you get. The other really important thing to say is that it's a little bit difficult for us to see the biases in ourself. Confirmation biases, our ability bias, how much we're influenced by other people that when we're stressed, we kind of concentrate

more on the negative and the optimism bias goes away. But we can see that in others all the time. I think now, especially now that we've learned about it, you can look around and it's like, oh, they're not listening because that's like it's contrary to the belief or it's not telling them what they want to hear. You can see this every day, basically. So knowing about these bias season, how our brain works means that we'll be better able

to at least frame information to others, and advise them using this knowledge, because, for example, as we said, that you want people to do something, maybe highlight the goal, the actions that they need to take. Don't focus on the threats, because people tend to discount threats.

And so we're not only helping ourselves, but we can also help each other. I love that. So even you book coming out, can you tell us about that? Yeah, so I have a new book coming out the end of February 2024. So in a few months, it's called Look Again, the power of noticing what is already there and it's co-written with Cass Sunstein. It's just up now on Amazon for pre-orders. And it looks at this phenomena by which when things are kind of constant, we tend to see them less, feel them less, notice them less. So for example, let's say you have a wonderful career, which you do. And at first it was super exciting to have this great podcast. And, you know, but over time, you kind of got used to it. So maybe it doesn't make you as happy as it did, right?

So these positive, amazing things that we have in life, whether it's a wonderful family or partner or a nice house, a job that we've always wanted, but then we get it. And well, after well we get used to it, what was kind of thrilling on Monday is a bit boring on Friday. And that's a problem because we're not as like, maybe as happy as we could be. And so we talk a lot about what can we do to make us feel these things again, notice them again. And then on

the other side, it's also true for these bad things. There are some really bad things around which we kind of get used to it, like social media. A lot of terrible way that people talk to each other on social media or like things around us that are pollution, air pollution. There's all these things, but because they've been there for so long, we got used to them and we don't notice them. Now, on one hand, you say,

well, maybe that's good, so it doesn't make us sad. And it's like, it's good that we don't know. But on the other hand, if you don't notice, you don't try to change. So then half of the book is about the positive and then the other half is like, well, how can we notice again these things that we kind of got used to? And we can't see, but how can we see it again in order to enhance change to make things better? Awesome. Well, that sounds super fascinating. We'll definitely have you back on the podcast

with your co-author to talk about that book. So I end the show with two questions that I ask all my guests. The first one is, what is one actionable thing our young and profitors can do today to become more profitable tomorrow? Aha, okay. One thing that they could do is write down what it is that they want, the one thing that they want, and it doesn't have to be huge, and then, right, maybe like five steps of how to get there. So then, you know, you have a really specific plan. Now, that's helpful for two reasons. One is, you could follow the plan, but the second reason is, once you have a plan, that makes you think that you're more likely to get there.

Enhance is optimism, and that means you get more motivated. If you think through you're more likely to get there. It enhances optimism. And that means you get more motivated. If you think through, how am I going to get to where I want to get? It changes your prediction of your likelihood to get there because it makes me think more vivid, more detail. And so it enhances your optimism as a result, your motivation. And if it enhances your motivation, it enhances optimism, you're more likely to take action. I love that one. And what is your secret to profiting in life and this can go beyond just financial?

I think one thing that is important to me, I definitely do it in my life. And this is something that we talk a lot in the new book, is change and diversity. I mean diversity in your own life. So not just diversity, I mean diversity in your own life. So not just being in the same place all the time every year, all year, do whatever you can to change things around. And it can be to different amounts. I mean, I actually kind of change locations. So now I'm in California, which I'm all it's not where I live, but I spent like four weeks a year here. It's totally different from where I usually am. And that change in the environment means I feel things differently. I think about things differently, right? So it can be a change of thought, sort, and your environment, or just change

in like the schedule of how you do things. Even just taking yourself doing the day from like the chair that you usually sit in, go sit somewhere else, go work in a coffee shop for an hour. There's a lot of data, a lot of studies showing that changes your thought process and is more likely to elicit innovative ideas. So diversify, don't just do the same thing all thing all the time, even if it's great. Just diversity alone is kind of a component for a good life. Awesome. Well, thank you so much, Tali. This was such a wonderful conversation. I really enjoyed hearing all your wisdom about optimism and influence. Human behavior is one of my favorite subjects,

so it was a real honor to have you on the show. It was a pleasure. Thank you for all the questions. I really love to learn about our brains and how we can harness our brains to reach our full potential. Most of us, as Tally told us, have brains that are hardwired to be hopeful. We're born optimists, and this phenomenon is kind of counterintuitive but has some fascinating aspects. First, we have a tendency to imagine a future that is better than our past. As a result, we are prone to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing positive events

like having a happy marriage or professional success, while underestimating the likelihood of experiencing negative events like getting sick, being in an accident, or getting a divorce. But because the advantages of this optimism bias outweigh the disadvantages, we have evolved to become this way. It's literally encoded into our brains. Having this optimism bias helps us not to just survive, but it propels us forward, makes us take actions to achieve our goals. This cognitive bias can thus be especially useful as an aspiring entrepreneur. The optimism bias means that we tend to view our own life and prospects as promising, but can remain skeptical about the world around us.

Tully calls this private optimism, but public despair. In other words, the world is going downhill, but I kind of like my personal chances. This of course can also make us prone to believing the worst about the world around us, whether it's grounded in reality or not. Tolly says that emotions are more effective than facts at motivating our beliefs and actions. And this is something we can also use to our advantage if we're trying to influence others. Knowing how our brains work and what types of information other people prefer can actually help us frame our communications better. Also if you tap into someone else's emotions, they pay more attention to what you're saying

than if you're just throwing out facts and figures at them. It's more impactful. We love stories as humans, and the best influencers are also the best storytellers. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of Young and Profiting Podcast. If you listen learned and profited from this episode, be sure to share it with your friends and family and drop us a five-star review on Apple podcasts. I love reading your reviews. It is my favorite thing to do every single morning. So please drop us a review on Apple if you never have. And if you like watching your podcast videos, you can find all of our episodes on YouTube. You can also find me on Instagram at Yap With Hala or LinkedIn

by searching my name, it's Hala Taha. I want to shout out my production team thank you for all your hard work on the show, it really shows, really appreciate you guys dedicating every day to Younger Profiting Podcast. This is your host, Hala Taha, signing off.