Your Next Move - The New Rules of Forecasting

Episode Date: December 16, 2025

Old forecasting models can’t keep up. Discover how Kim Vaccarella of Bogg Bag and Rachel Liverman of Glowbar stay focused on their mission while planning smarter, faster, and with more flexibility.

With the VentureX business card from Capital One, you earn unlimited double miles on every purchase. Plus, the VentureX business card has no preset spending limit, so your purchasing power can adapt to meet your business needs. Capital One, what's in your wallet? Hi. I'm Mike. Kauffman, Aaron Chief of Inc. And welcome to your next move, produced by Inc. and Capital One business. Without clear forecasting, companies risk overspending, missing demand, or losing side of their mission. So today we're joined by two entrepreneurs, Kim Vaccarella, founder of

Bogbag, and Rachel Liverman, founder and CEO of Globar. We'll discuss how founders balance data, intuition, and ambition as they look toward the future. So Kim, Rachel, welcome. Thank you so much for having us. Thanks for having us, Mike. Kim, let's start with you. So tell us about bog bag? So bob bag is bags and accessories for the beach and beyonds. It originated in 2008. The material is EVA, which is an ethyl vinyl acetate. And it's the same material that you see in not only Crocs, but in a lot of other summer-type shoes. And it's just big and spacious and waterproof and waterproof and waterproof and waterproof and all those things that I needed when I was looking for the beach bag of my dreams. And last year we did $100 million in sales. Wow.

Great, great. And Rachel, tell us about Globar. Yeah, so Globar is the world's largest facial membership. We started in 2019 right before the pandemic. Great timing. Exactly. It was part of my business plan and forecast. And we have grown throughout the East Coast. So everywhere from D.C. up to Boston, you can find a Globar location, join our membership, and come get a facial every single month.

We're focused on customized results. So making sure that we're getting you your skincare goals met and helping you feel more confident in your skin. So you have a retail business that also has products and services, and you have a product-driven business. Forecasting, I imagine, changes over time when you start these companies. Get the forecast is like, let's just get through tomorrow and next week and next month. When did forecasting become something that you really sort of thought should be a discipline of the company? Coming out of COVID, we had a two-year backlog because the popularity of our bags started to rise over COVID because of the washability. So really, that was the first look into forecasting.

Like, how am I going to meet all of the same? demand and still have product to continue to grow the business. And where are the bags manufactured? In China. And so you had supply chain issues, I imagine, during COVID and after. Yes. I went through the first round of tariffs pre-COVID, then COVID, and now this round of tariffs.

So it's been a difficult several years. Yeah, there's like a Black Swan event like every five minutes. Exactly. Exactly. So honestly, we're still learning. Up until December, 2023, there were five employees in our business. we now have over 100. So building out that team and building out the right people to do that forecasting because it was really just what I was thinking was going to sell and when. As you start

building out a team and bringing in planners and demand planners and you have your wholesale team and your D to C team and everybody's giving you their input, you know, then it became more of a regular thing for us. So we just started that in 2024 to be more in tune with what we're ordering. We have two different dynamics. One is our core product, the ones that are going to sell Evergreen. They're going to be around 365 days a year. So how do we manage to have that? How do we take what we learned this year and last year

and make sure that we're ordering enough, even if we are ordering safety stock? Is that even going to be enough? So it's a lot of juggling. And is this something that finance owns or who owns forecasting, knowing that ultimately you do, right? Rachel, let's start with you. Yeah, so our finance team really needs.

manages like our forecasting, our models. But I think what's really interesting about what Kim just said, and that is a really big part of a growing organization, is that intuition is really your forecast for a long part of the business. For me, almost to this day, we still use my like intuition. It's like an art and a science. But yeah, finance owns it, but they always come to me and like my leadership team for the inputs, because numbers are just numbers without context, right? And so they can you know, forecast all day long, but they need to know what we see in the market, what we think the patterns are, what the seasonality is, how the consumers responding, thinking about macro and micro. So it's a joint effort at Globar, I would say. We have a COO that oversees it, and then we have,

like, again, the planning and demand planning, you know, where they're putting all of the information together. We're getting input from our D to C team and then our wholesale team just based on what they're pre-selling, they're going out, and they're trying to get numbers ahead of time, ahead of our ordering deadlines. But then that's only the ordering deadlines, right? So we need to make sure that we have stock available for somebody that couldn't make it to a show or didn't get an appointment or didn't get to put their order in. Like, we want to make sure that we have enough for them as well. And then we want to make sure that we have enough safety stock. So it's kind of a combination of all the teams, including finance as well. And we have to convince, you know,

maybe one of the teams, whether it be wholesale or e-com, that if one is buying really strong into it, you probably should have it too. And then the ultimate decision comes when I say, I think you're missing the mark on this. You did not order enough of this, and you're going to fly through it. And that has happened. So we're trying to get better. And how much do you benchmark against competitors? Rachel, let's start with you. I barely look at competitors. Interesting. Why? I think it's distracting. I think that it gets you nervous, like compare and despair. And so I I look at my numbers, my metrics, I take a pulse check on our NPS net promoter score of our client to see, are they really, really happy with the service and the products we're offering?

If so, let's juice it up and juice up marketing and see how much more demand we can drive. But I think what I look at more than competitors is like the macro economic. So is consumer spending up? If so, let's have them spend more at Globbar. If it's down, are we seeing that? If not, let's keep charging ahead. And if it is, then let's take a little bit. more of a conservative approach, our forecasts have actually three tabs, which is base case,

stretch case, and downside case. And so we always have those to alternate and oscillate between. So if we're seeing that the consumer is, you know, exceeding our expectations, we'll use our stretch case forecast. And if we're seeing that it's, you know, we're not hitting our base case, we'll go to the other. How does forecasting change when you bring on outside investors who have, you know, requirements and demands and curiosity of. the trajectory of the business. Let's start with you, Rachel. I took the approach of if you want the data and you want the reporting, I'm going to need your help. I think that like when you bring on private equity in my case, you know, a lot of people think they have to pretend

that they know everything. And when I brought on my private equity partners, I didn't have systems. So it's been really fun for us to level up and systematize the business. But if I don't know something, my private equity partners have been there for me to help me figure that out, help me put those systems in place. And if we don't have them, or remember, if we don't want to invest in them, data warehouses and BI tools are expensive. And I think in the next couple years, we'll have to level all of that up again. But I typically ask them for help in building it out, and they've been great to me. So my experience is a little bit different. So these are all private investors that are all in the fashion world. And it was just a random

coincidence that I met them, and they've been great. And what have they taught you about forecasting? That we need to do it better. And they're involved a lot more than I thought they would be, and it's fantastic. I've learned so much, you know, one of them is my mentor now, but they taught me about forecasting that it's the most important thing. And we have so many skews right now, and it's really just trying to figure out how to narrow down those skews and sell the bread and butter.

right? And make sure we're focusing on that and making sure we have enough. We can sell the other skews. Are they going to move as fast? Are we going to have too many weeks of sale on those particular items? And where we were lagging was we didn't have enough of the core product that people wanted to buy. So they're teaching and helping us figure that out more with our teams on how we maximize the top 80% of our sales is in these core products. So how do we maximize that and make sure that those are always in stock. So we've already changed some of our ordering to make sure that those are evergreen and always there. And that's inventory management. Does marketing shift as well in order to support the core business? Yes, we have two different things as far as marketing goes and

creative goes. It's, you know, we have to run core campaigns on our core product. It has to be there all the time, all day, every day. And then for our, we'll go back to Halloween again, or whether it's Christmas or Easter, anytime we have limited edition bags for those areas, they'll come in and do something specifically for that. But we do need to have that core program constantly running. Yeah. Marketing and call it operations are in lockstep. Every day, all day. And remember, my forecasting for supply is a human being. And that can make or break my business. And so that's been something we've been focused on. The amount of iterations of our scheduling model that we have had at Globar is profound.

Like, I think it's like a hundred million versions of this scheduling tool to make sure that, A, we don't overstaff and have them, you know, waiting for clients and not having clients or not have enough so that our clients can't get an appointment. And so in order to make sure that that, like, is a science and that we really nail it and don't have wasted talent on the floor, operations and marketing have to be connected all day. And so they're constantly talking about, okay, if we're going to juice up some marketing or have a new campaign or double our campaigns. Do we have the estheticians, which are the red and butter of my business, they are available when we start creating that awareness out there? So that's been

a beautiful, beautiful relationship, actually, for us to really nail. And once we did nail it, like a year and a half ago, then the business just started to like take off. You know, you talked about, like, it's your intuition, it's your gut, but also you want information to help you be confident in what you're doing, how do you balance those? And are there moments when the finance folks come to you and they're like, we get your ambition, but like, well, we need to cool it a little bit? I think it's a problem if the founder or CEO isn't scaring every other team with what they think the business can do.

And what I've seen is that when we have led with what I think the business can do and how successful it can be, we do better. When I say, okay, I understand that you don't think we can hit that number. let's just lower our goal. Everyone just lowers their, like, their goals and we, like, hit the lower number. And so I think that, like, it's my responsibility, actually, to lead with, like, aggressive goals and also empower everyone to say, guys, you're underestimating what this business can do. Like, we can 10x this. No problem. And when you give someone a 10x goal, they actually have a higher rate of achieving that than if you give them a 2x goal.

I love what she just said because it's the truth. The goals sometimes that are set, even in our own company, I'm like, this is too low. Like, we need to go higher. Like, we have such a runway here. And I can name all of the different things that we haven't even touched yet that could potentially bring those goals. So I'm in the same camp. If the goal is set for, let's say it's $150 million, I'm like it's $170 million.

It's 100. There's no reason you can't get to 170. Come on. We can do this. We can totally do this. So what do we do? I want to do it strategically and we don't want to devalue the brand just to get a sale, right? That's not the intent, but there is so much opportunity. So I want everybody to keep that eye on the price and not only try to hit their goal because maybe the goal isn't high enough. How much do you think about the top line versus margins and profitability when you're forecasting? I'll take that one because I'm I hate the word EBITA with a passion. And when I went to bring on a partner, it was right after COVID. So my numbers and my EBITA, because I was paying $30,000 for a container that was normally costing me three. In my mind, I knew that I can explain this away because there's a $27,000 differential on this container, and I bring in hundreds of containers.

So I know that that goes to my EBITA, but it doesn't matter. because if your EBIT is not there, it's just not there. So you're getting a multiple on whatever your EBITA is at the time that you were bringing on a partner. So I can regret that, but I don't because it was a decision that I made and it was a good decision. I think gross sales is great, but I think you have to keep an eye on that EBTA because if you're ever going to exit down the road, take on an additional partner, whatever you need, it's going to rely on that number. So keeping that in mind is always important. I agree. And I think also it's important to remember the stage of a business when you're answering that question. So Globar is zero to four years old. I just focused on top line because top line to me is awareness, right? It's as many people through the door. And even if I spend a little bit more on them and my margin on them is a little bit lower, at least they're talking about Globar out there. And so for those first four years, you know, five years in my business, I was like, just get people through the door. figure out profitability later.

And then as you get to being kind of a teenager in business, you start to say, okay, now I've got to figure out how to make money on these people. And so now where we are approaching our like full sixth year being in business, we talk a lot about EBITA. And to your point, like as we think about debt, right, you want to go to a bank? Well, they don't give loans to companies that don't have profit. Other investors, you know, we brought on private equity pre-profit. And we always agreed and held hands that we were going to be like a corporate profitable business until a future date.

But now that's really all we think about is like EBITDA, EBTA, Iba, Iba, yeah. And I agree with you too. In the early stages, I just wanted to see a big number. Yeah. Like when I retired in 2018 to take some full time, it just got to be too much. And I made up a number and I'm like, I need to sell a million dollars this year. I had no idea if I could sell a million dollars. I squeaked that million dollars.

I did everything in my power. I was working all day, going over to the warehouse at night with one other employee, and we would unvox trucks and load trucks and tape and pack and invoice and do all these things just so I could get to that million dollars in 2018. And it was, it's great. So I do agree with that. Seeing just that top line number then, I didn't care. I didn't make any money. But it was great to see.

So what data do you look at every day, every week as CEO? and then what do you do with that data? Yeah. Every morning I get a dashboard delivered to my inbox at 8 a.m. It's my favorite email to get. And it shows me so many metrics. I can't even look at all of them. The ones I really look at are, again, top line revenue.

What did we do yesterday, like, or the past few days at, you know, company-wide and then studio level, AOV, membership sales. Those are really the ones that I look at every single day. lately I've been looking more and more at turned members. Getting clients is expensive and a lot of work and we want to keep them. And so seeing if there's any patterns in like people that cancel their membership and why. And if there is a pattern, we need to dig into that and see what's going on there. Tim, what are the key numbers you look at?

Basically the same except for membership. So yeah, same thing. I get a dashboard where I'm looking at yesterday's sales. I'm looking at the last week's sales. I'm looking at what our anticipated sales were. did we meet the mark? Did we exceed? You know, if we fell short, why? You know, what happened? Was there any event that took place for us over the last couple months? It's tariffs. You know, we weren't able to order for several months. I mean, we were looking at 150 percent tariffs and then just juggling all

of that. So we're definitely down a little bit this year because of that because we didn't have product coming in in May, June, and July. We now have product coming in regularly. The 40% that we're out now seems like a gift, but it's still a hell of a lot more than we were paying previously. So it's how to manage all of that. And then what's the biggest thing for us right now is what is incremental, because we are falling short of our goal a little bit. So how do we generate incremental sales? You know, do we need to go to additional sales shows? Do we need to bring on additional reps to hit the pavement? Can we reach out to stores that maybe have an order in a little while? Let's learn as much as we can this year about the consumer what they're willing to part with and what they're willing to stick with. And is it that they're going to slow down on core maybe, but they're definitely going to buy into more of our limited edition designs for holidays and whatnot?

The good thing for us is our bog by customer is a collector. So design has been a really big element in there too, right? How do we keep it fresh, but different enough that we get the emojis where they say, take my money. Great, great. So when you look at your forecast for 2025, 2026, and beyond, what's your next move? Rachel, start with you. At Globar, our next move is continuing to grow out our product offering. So continuing to get into the CPG space. And also just further expanding in the U.S., the client is hungry for us. And so we want to give as many communities a Globara as possible. And Kim, what's your next move? World domination. I mean, the idea is, you know, how can we

put Bogback in every household. We've already proven that it's not just for the beach. So how do we bring it not only in the United States, but internationally? We get so much demands. And this year has been innovation, innovation, innovation. How do you, in an economic downturn, if we're in one, it seems like we're in a little bit of one, like how can we innovate to really rise to the occasion for our customers? So that is huge for us right now and exciting. Kim Vackerela, founder and CEO of Bogbag and Rachel Liverman, founder and CEO of Globar. Thanks so much, and we'll continue this conversation in a minute. Here's a tip for growing your business.

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Find out more at Capital1.com slash Venturex Business. First, it's time to hear from you our viewers. Here's our first viewer polling question. What's the biggest challenge with forecasting as your company grows? Is it managing expectations in an uncertain economy? Leveraging the right tools to forecast most accurately or reducing misalignments between departments. Don't forget to share your answers in the chat.

All right, now let's welcome Alex Shad, Senior Director, Tech Finance and Capital One, our show. Thanks for joining us today, Alex. Thanks, Mike. It's going to be fun. So there's so much data to evaluate when you're running a business from customer preferences to market trends, what kind of trends should businesses be watching most closely? Today, businesses should be watching their customers' buying behavior.

How do they prefer to purchase your products or services? Do they prefer subscription models or single purchases? Is there an opportunity to create bundles of products and services, such as a product and specialized support or service? How do they want to pay? Another area they should watch is product or category trends. Are customers shifting to a different type of product or service? Look at social, cultural, or environmental shifts.

These are all trend areas that can affect customer preferences. Now, most founders really love to get into the data. Where can businesses find reliable and affordable trend data? So this data is available from a variety of sources, some of which are free or low cost. Google has trend and keyword research tools that can give you some insights into consumer behavior, turn to industry associations and trade publications for information too. Social media listening tools can help you capture what people are discussing online. Or trend forecasting sites like exploding topics and trend hunter can be useful.

And of course, customer surveys and reviews can often give you the best micro-trend insights. And in such uncertain times, what are some signs that a trend is worth acting on and not just a passing fat? If the trend aligns with your customer's values or lifestyle. For example, an increased emphasis on well-being or convenience, look to see if that's growing over time, which is an indicator that the trend may stick. When customers begin to ask about areas related to the trend, that's another sign that you need to pay attention. When in doubt, you can test your response to the trend with some low-risk methods like a pilot product or an AB campaign to gauge customer response. And what's your best advice for a company that's trying to future-proof its products or services?

Make trend-watching a regular habit so you stay informed. But don't go chasing every trend you spot. Stay curious and open-minded, but act only on those trends that are aligned with your brand. It's a good idea to build flexibility into your business model, so you can pivot quickly and take advantage of opportunities when they present. themselves. But ultimately, use customer feedback and behavior to guide you. With those steps, you'll be on the way to success. Now, these are great insights. Thanks so much for being with us today, Alex. Thanks, Mike. Much appreciated. Now, here's another chance for you, our viewers, to join the conversation. Looking to 2026, how do you expect your forecasting strategy to evolve?

Will you employ new tools and more advanced technology to strengthen your existing forecasting model? Adjust the cadence of your forecasting to better suit your company's needs. rethink your forecasting model and realign as a team, or you won't be making changes to your forecasting approach. Let us know your answers in the chat. In this season, we want to give our audience access to founders like our guests today. So here are our viewer questions about forecasting. How frequently do you communicate your forecast to your team?

Rachel, we'll start with you. I communicate it when it needs to change their strategies and processes in place. Otherwise, usually there's no need to get everyone. distracted by a re-forecast and having that conversation. Kim, what about you? Well, we're going to do that probably biweekly, if not monthly, especially this year. And a normal year, I probably wouldn't say that as often. But this year, it's changed so many times that we're really talking about it probably

every two weeks. And the next question is, how can you quickly tell if your forecasting model needs to be adjusted? I'm comfortable with a 10% delta to my original forecast, and I won't make any changes there. If it gets over 10% where we're really like either off track or really exceeding, then I like to say to my finance team, let's re-look at it, let's give it a re-forecast and see if what the re-forecast says we think we can achieve. What about you, Kim? I'm looking at sell-through, right?

What are we selling through? What's happening today? And that's being looked at on a regular basis just to help us with the forecast. As a leader, how did you come to identify which internal factors and which external factors matter the most for your forecast? Like many things in a growing, small, scaling business, it's trial and error. So sometimes you'll react and it will actually be the wrong thing to react to or not accurate for your business. And so typically we are always like testing and learning and seeing how it goes and going from there.

And Kim, what about you? How did you figure out which internal and external factors mattered the most for your company? Well, I think the internal factors we can as a team control, the external ones we can't control. So it's how do we marry those two in a way that helps us get to our ultimate goal, right? We can see all the data that we want to see, but those external factors like the tariffs again and, you know, anything else that comes our way over the last couple of years, those are the ones that we can't really control. So how do we even them up? So our last question is like an internal comms question. What is the best way to involve teams

in communicating and taking ownership of forecast bindings? It's always important to be transparent with your team and explain to them the why. If you are re-forecasting because things aren't going as great as you thought they were, I think it's important to just say that and explain why you think things aren't going. And also open it up for discussion. People love to be involved in a solution, good, bad, ugly. And so for me, I really get everyone together and just explain the why and ask for everyone's patience. We're broadcasting that often, especially right now.

We're talking bi-weekly, so we're going through all the numbers as a team, both on our e-com side, our wholesale side, and we're bringing that all together, and we're discussing internally if we have any solves for any of these issues, or if we really think we need to be forecast again. Rachel, Kim, thanks so much for being with us on your next move. Thank you so much for having us. Thank you, Mike. And thank you for watching your next move.

We hope today's conversation inspires you to find ways to future-proof your business. We'll be back next season with more industry leaders, breakthrough businesses, and the strategies you need to make your next move. But before you go, we want to hear from you. you. Share your feedback in our quick survey, it's posted in the chat, and you'll be entered to win a $100 Amazon gift card. I'm Mike Hoffman, Aaron Chief of Inc. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time.