Your World Tonight - A look at 2025: Trump sows chaos, Carney calls for calm, Gaza clings to hope, and more

Episode Date: January 1, 2026

2025 may go down as the year Canada's relationship with the United States was forever changed. Nearly 11 months into U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, the economic damage is clear. The remedies are not. Washington correspondent Katie Simpson and senior business correspondent Peter Armstrong look at the prospects for a new free trade deal.And: Also in 2025, Trump broke the mold and re-cast the U.S. presidency in his own image. He claimed vast new powers, setting aside existing laws and norms. Washington correspondent Paul Hunter on what Trump’s presidency looks like now, and how it may continue into the new year.Also: Officially, there is a ceasefire in Gaza, but for many Gazans, and for Palestinians in the West Bank, the suffering, the hunger and the violence continue. We’ll look at the state of the peace plan with Israel and what obstacles lie ahead.Plus: “The weather outside is frightful!” It’s not just a line from a classic holiday song. It’s how climate experts are interpreting the weather data from 2025. “Extreme” was the word of the year: more hot days, more flooding, more drought, and more fires.

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Who's ready? Who's ready to stand up for Canada with me? From an improbable political comeback in Canada to some dizzying developments around the world. You're gambling with the lives of millions of millions. of people. You're gambling with World War III. You're gambling with World War III. 2025, a whirlwind year marked by war, major change, and of course, Donald Trump. A second term that started with calls for a 51st state, as Canadians put their elbows up and tariffs dragged the economy down. I'm Susan Bonner, and this is a special New Year's Day edition of your

world tonight. I'll look back at the stories that defined 2025. 2025 may go down as the year Canada's relationship with the United States was forever changed. Roughly eight months into Donald Trump's trade war, the economic damage is clear. The remedies are not. To talk about it all, I'm joined by senior business correspondent Peter Armstrong in Toronto and Katie Simpson, CBC correspondent in Washington. Katie, you've been there to witness Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canadian delegates trying to get at least some of the tariffs reversed. Tell us about Canada's approach to dealing with Donald Trump.

Well, we've seen the government of Mark Carney really try to improve the relationship. It ended on a really bad note between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump, right down to all those threats about Canada becoming the 51st state and personal insults. calling him the governor, all of those kinds of things. The perspective from Ottawa was, okay, we need to improve this relationship because Donald Trump is the guy that's going to make all the final decisions on this. If we have a better working relationship with him,

we'll have a better chance at making our case and trying to convince him to either lower or get rid of some tariffs and make sure that the Canada, U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Agreement stays in place. The Kuzma is here to stay. So far, even though the relationship on the outside, We see a far more respectful tone that's there, but we haven't seen the kind of tariff relief that many Canadians and many Canadian businesses had really been hoping for at this point in the year. Well, just a quick word from you, Katie, on the chemistry between Trump and Carney, it looked so good at the start, a kinder, gentler form of Trump. Yeah, and the thing is that Donald Trump at the core of this presidency, he's made something very clear.

He has declared himself tariff man. And he truly believes in this vision to reshape the American economy and bring jobs back to America, whether you're hurting longtime allies and neighbors or whether it's, you know, more traditional geopolitical foes. So even if that personal relationship between Carney and Trump is better, Trump is deeply committed to these tariffs. Yeah. Peter, let's talk now about the impact of these tariffs and the damage on the Canadian economy. Very real damage. And it is bad out there. If you work in lumber, steel, aluminum, autos, it is particularly bad. And it is scary that it might well get worse. But there has been this kind of turn that we've seen since the end, middle of the summer, that we began to see resilience emerge. We began to see growth come back into the Canadian economy. We avoided the technical definition of a recession. We've added, what is it, 180,000 jobs since August. And it really does speak to a better place than we thought we were going to be when this trade war began. But does this unexpected resilience translate into growth for the Canadian economy going forward? No. And there's a bunch of things that sort of go into this. And one of them is that Statistics Canada revised its growth figures going back three years.

And they showed that the economy was in better shape coming in. And then you take all these things like a little bit better growth and a little bit better jobs. and you should be excited, but none other than the governor of the Bank of Canada has said, yes, that resilience is better than expected, and it is good news, but it doesn't mean the damage hasn't been real and that the damage that is ongoing in so many of these important sectors isn't being felt and that it isn't going to be a long road to get back to anything approaching normal. When will we get the full, clear picture of the impact of these tariffs here in the U.S. and on the global economy? Somebody wants describe this to me as like a puzzle that for every time you put in a new piece, something else changes. And you're constantly trying to figure out what new piece are we looking for. We're getting jobs data and inflation data out of the United States, but they're not complete because they weren't gathering all that data during the government shutdown. The Canadian jobs growth and GDP growth is being juiced a little bit by those revisions, is being juiced a little bit by some of the measures we saw in the budget.

and it also sort of has begun to level off. When will we begin to see it climb back in? Probably not till the middle of next year approaching the end of 2026. So it is a long road ahead. Katie, you covered hearings in Washington earlier in December that were kind of a warm up for the official talks on renewing the free trade agreement that we call Kuzma. What was your takeaway from what was said there? The main message that was delivered to the Trump administration from a wall. range of stakeholders, from business leaders, from trade activists, from academics, all kinds

of people. The message clearly was, keep Kuzma, but perhaps make some tweaks if necessary. But the underlying theme that we heard person after person presenting case after case saying what they liked about it is that they want this three-way trade agreement to continue on because it does provide stability for their certain industries. Now, of course, there were complaints. We We heard from workers in the steel industry, American steel industry, talking about how, listen, Canada and Mexico, they're not abiding by the rules of the agreement. And there need to be changes to make sure cheap steel from foreign producers isn't being dumped into the North American market. All of these technical things that they want to see changed. But the underlying message to the Trump administration is keep this agreement.

Now, we know that there's been some posturing. The Trump administration has been saying, look, we might get rid of this. we might consider bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico. But every expert and everyone, former trade advisor I've spoken to about this, they tell me that this is classic Donald Trump style negotiation tactics, that they want to squeeze concessions out of Canada and Mexico. And just they're trying to tell Canadians, you know, take the threat seriously, but understand there's going to be a lot of bluster and it could be a real messy process.

And meantime, Peter, we keep hearing that Kuzma has protected us from the worst effects of these tariffs. To what extent are we protected? We are protected so long as the protections we have continue to be in place. And the one thing that Katie has made abundantly clear in her reporting over all of this past tumultuous year is that it can change at a whim. As long as those Kuzma exemptions are in place, Canada's got like a 6% effective tariff rate. Most trade goes unharmed or way less harm than anybody else on the planet. But those could disappear. There are all kinds of things that could get in the way of those exemptions. A lot of this obviously depends on politics. So, Katie, let's end with you on the

political pressure within the United States. Is there, will there be a push back against these tariffs from within the U.S.? There is a cost of living crisis that you cannot ignore in the United States right now. So if that continues and people can't afford to feed their kids, get them, you know, access to health care that they need. If all of that starts to mount and mount and mount, the pressure will build on the Trump administration to do something about this and perhaps change course. But the one thing I will continue to repeat is that there isn't any sort of policy idea that I think I've ever heard Donald Trump speak about more consistently than tariffs. So even if there is this huge amount of backlash and push about the cost of living

crisis that exists in America, he's really stuck and married to this idea. Fascinating stuff. So good to talk to both of you together. Thanks, Katie and Peter. Thank you. Thanks. Katie Simpson joined us from Washington, and Peter Armstrong was here in Toronto. Canadians weren't the only ones hit with big surprises by Donald Trump. His return to power in 2025 was a shock and awe campaign that transformed everything from international relations to immigration to the White House itself. The CBC's Paul Hunter has been tracking it all. Paul, it's been such a crazy and remarkable year. It's hard to know where to start. Yeah, well, how about we make the East Wing of the White House, the big metaphor on this?

Because, you know, Trump 2.0 basically came in with a wrecking ball and blew it all up. I mean, he didn't actually blow it up, but he did demolish the East Wing. And he did it without really consulting anyone, all so that he could put a great big ballroom in its place instead. In a nutshell, that's the kind of year it's been politically as well. He's effectively blown up. the presidency and then reinvented it. Now, Kinglike, say his critics, just getting stuff done, say his backers. Okay, let's talk about that stuff, as you call it. What has he done this year? It's not a short list, is it? Yeah, well, right out of the gate, Susan, Elon Musk and his Department

of Government Efficiency, Doge, with mass firings at government agencies and deep cuts to foreign aid. Then, immigration officers, most of them wearing those masks seemed to be everywhere, grabbing tens of thousands off the streets, often deporting them without hearings, including even some who identified as U.S. citizens. Meanwhile, breaking with historic presidential tradition, Trump seemed to turn the Department of Justice into a tool for political revenge with indictments against a number of his perceived opponents. And then there's the trade wars and Trump's tariffs, another massive upending of the status quo by him, not to mention his talk of making Canada the 51st state, maybe annexing Greenland or seizing the Panama Canal, all of it, Susan, testing the limits of presidential power.

He's been pushing the authority envelope from day one. How far he'll go now remains an open question. Well, according to Donald Trump, everything is working out beautifully. How would you describe the real picture? Well, you know, as ever, in a way, it depends on who you ask, right? Illegal crossings into America from Mexico are now almost non-existent, and there remains strong backing for his positions on immigration. The tariffs have brought actual or at least pledged investments into the country, along with many billions of dollars in new revenue. There's a ceasefire in Gaza, albeit a very tenuous one, with Trump now focusing hard on the war in Ukraine. He certainly checked a lot of boxes that he wanted checked. His critics, of course, say that those boxes came with a huge cost and not without major hiccups.

Yeah, well, let's look at Ukraine. If there's a most memorable moment this year, it's got to be Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in the Oval Office, when Trump basically went ballistic on him over Ukraine's continuing resistance to Russian forces. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War III. It was like the whole world gasped and thought, what is going on here?

It suddenly seemed clear that Trump wants Ukraine to cave and to give Russian President Vladimir Putin whatever he wants. It was a complete and for many unsettling about face for U.S. foreign policy. Then there are the immigration raids we mentioned. brought fierce pushback in turn leading Trump to order soldiers onto the streets of a number of U.S. cities, including here in D.C. Not a good look, say Trump critics. A lot of consternation now

about Venezuela. And by the way, on trade, fact is, things here now cost more. High prices cost in no small way because of those tariffs. Trump campaigned on lowering the cost of living, and by most measures, he hasn't. Donald Trump has legendary supporters. They just like everything, he does. Where does he stand with those people now? Are there any cracks in the MAGA world? Well, look, we haven't talked about Jeffrey Epstein, have we? But Trump's fight to block the release of the Epstein files hurt him with many of those in his base. Look at Marjorie Taylor Green, a prominent and hardcore Trump and MAGA supporter who resigned from Congress over that. That was a stunner. But there were also other Republicans like her publicly wavering, including

just this month over Trump's Rob Reiner comment. So it's as if there's a sense Trump, isn't actually infallible anymore. But really, it's the popular support among regular voters that counts. And for Trump, it's cratering over his handling of the economy, now at historic lows. The good old midterms are coming up fast

next November, Susan. More than a few already expect a Republican bloodbath. And so here's my big fat prediction for 2026. Are you ready? There will be no sleep, no rest, no calm seas for any who follow U.S. politics yet again.

I think that might be a safe prediction, Paul. Thank you. You're welcome. Paul Hunter joined us from the CBC Bureau in Washington. In the Middle East, there was progress in 2025. Israel and Hamas agreed to a shaky ceasefire, and a broader peace plan is on the table. But it faces serious obstacles. There have been numerous violations of the truth.

People in Gaza continue to suffer and die. And Hamas remains firmly entreat. wrenched. The CBC, Sasha Petrasek, recently returned from covering the conflict. Sasha, what's the situation in Gaza at this moment? Well, Susan, there is a peace plan now, ultimately imposed by Trump in early October, and 20 living hostages have been released, and many of the bodies of the 26 of the 28 dead have been returned to Israel. But Gaza itself is not looking that different. More than 300 have been killed since the ceasefire.

began. And more aid is getting in, but according to the UN and aid organizations, very few tents, for instance, are being allowed in, despite the fact that 1.2 million people there are homeless. Children are still being admitted to hospital for malnutrition, says UNICEF. Gaza has also been divided by this so-called yellow line. Israel's military still occupies half of the territory on one side of the line. And Hamas, is still in charge of the other half, despite both sides agreeing to be replaced by an independent administration and an international peacekeeping force. All of that is on hold, though, partly because Hamas is refusing to disarm. The militant group has been actively trying to re-establish

authority in Gaza, which make things even more complicated. Donors, including Gulf states, are not willing to start paying to rebuild inside Gaza to improve the situation simply because they don't really believe this war is over. And in terms of that long-term solution, the next step, this credible pathway to Palestinian statehood just doesn't seem to be there. Israel signed on to it, but it is clearly saying now that it's not going to happen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's position has not changed on this, since he chastised countries like Canada, Britain, and France

for recognizing a Palestinian state at the UN back in September. This is sheer madness. It's insane. And we won't do it. In fact, things are quickly moving away from a Palestinian state. In the occupied West Bank, in particular, where Israeli settlements are expanding with both settlers and the Israeli army blamed by the UN for what is. it calls intensified killings, attacks, and harassment of Palestinians. More than 30,000 Palestinians

there have been displaced and more than 1,000 killed since October 7th. I can tell you, Susan, that when you travel through the West Bank, there's really a palpable fear higher than I've seen for many years among Palestinians. And what about in Israel itself? What has the impact of all of this been within the country? Well, as you can imagine, most Israelis are quite tired of this war. They want it to end. Some 300,000 reservists have spent months on active duty. And some that I've met in Israel have been on the front lines for almost the entire two years,

away from their families and away from businesses and jobs as well. There have also been social divisions, a split, not so much over the need to fight this war, but over who fights it. Ultra-religious Israelis have been generally exempt from serving in the military, leaving the rest of the population bearing this huge weight of the war. Also, there's been big splits between Israelis, in general, and settlers, who've taken advantage of the focus on Gaza to expand settlements in the West Bank. As for Netanyahu, he has also been a deeply divisive figure.

He leads a slim and controversial hard-right coalition, and he's not taken the blame for intelligence failures of October 7th. More and more, he is seen as being responsible for Israel being isolated internationally. And you can feel this in Israel today. As a military power, if there was any doubt about Israel's place in the region, where does it stand now? I mean, there's no question that Israel ends 2025 with superiors. in the Middle East, taking the opportunity to weaken or destroy many of its long-term enemies. That includes several Iran-sponsored groups in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, as we've heard. Israel also waged a 12-day war with Iran, targeting Tehran's nuclear program with the help of the U.S.

And pretty much destroying Iran's air defense system. All of that, though, has come at a cost for Israel. Before the Gaza War, Israel had been normalizing relations with countries like the Emirates and Bahrain, and it looked like Saudi Arabia and others could be ready to sign some lucrative economic deals with Israel. But much of that now seems to be on whole. These states are angry at Israel, with the UAE threatening to pull out of its agreement, and Saudi putting off any cooperation until there's progress on Palestinian statehood. So really, the power balance in the Middle East has certainly shifted in Israel's favor, as we said.

But there's been also a lot more instability in that area, certainly since the Gaza War started. And it looks like that's likely to continue. Sasha, thank you very much. My pleasure, Susan. The CBC's Sasha Petrasek here in Toronto. As the holiday classic goes, the weather outside is frightful. The song may refer to a wintry snowfall, but in 2025, scary weather was a year-round phenomenon. From scorching summer heat to powerful storms, the data for last year is in.

And who better to tell us about it than CBC meteorologist and science reporter Johanna Wagstaff Johanna, unfortunately, weather extremes have become more and more frequent. Susan, it really was another year of extremes. And it may end up being another record breaker, possibly second or third warmest on record for planet Earth. And it raises the question, have we effectively crossed that 1.5 degree line? The global temperature rise scientists have been saying for years needs to be capped. The threshold set out in the Paris Climate Accord years ago.

Dr. James Hansen, one of the world's best-known climate scientists, has been pretty blunt about crossing this line. For the rest of this decade, the average is going to be at least 1.5. The scenarios that you would need to stay under 2 degrees are just not their imaginary. So he thinks we're there. And he's not the only scientist who thinks we're probably past the mark in climbing, meaning we've changed the climate for the foreseeable future. We're seeing the cause and effect play out year after year, Susan.

Beyond the permanent features, though, what were the difference that set last year apart. This year marked a shift in what's called the background climate. So we used to see the record heat levels in El Nino years. That's the naturally occurring period of warmer waters in the Pacific, which gives the atmosphere sort of an extra kick. But 2025 was not an El Nino year. Temperature stayed pressed against record territory without that natural boost.

And that tells us the atmosphere isn't resetting between cycles anymore. It tells us this new higher, warmer level is the new baseline. And that baseline will continue to shift upwards as CO2 continues to heat the planet. You can really see it in the numbers of heat waves this past year. Toronto saw double the annual average of days above 32 degrees this past summer. In India and Pakistan, there was a heat wave that started back in April. Temperatures alone approached 50 degrees Celsius, a glimpse of their new normal in just a few years. But Susan, there's something else that really stood out in 2025.

The rapid fire sequence of extremes, same places getting hit again and again. Much of Canada had an exceptionally dry winter, and that set the stage for the second worst wildfire season on record. In the Maritimes, for example, people watched their 200-year-old wells run dry for the first time, and then came the restrictions. Effective 4 p.m. today, we're telling Nova Scotians stay out of the woods. Hiking, camping, fishing, and the use of vehicles in the woods are not permitted. rail systems through woods are off limits. That was the Premier of Nova Scotia, Tim Houston, in August. People were stunned.

Many of those same communities then found themselves under evacuation notice or order as the fires rolled in. And now we're starting to see the early season winter storms cause floods in parts of the country where the ground is still so parched. It's this quick succession of disasters. You know, each one amplifying the next that has left many Canadians feeling like they can't catch their breath. And Johanna, this is actually a global phenomenon. Yes, not necessarily more storms in our oceans, but more intense storms around the world. Hurricane Melissa became

the third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record and devastated parts of the Caribbean. And across the eastern Pacific, the Philippines was hit by back to back to back storms that each blew up in strength right before hitting land. And that's a trend we can now directly link to climate change. Warmer waters mean ocean storms blow up faster and linger longer. What can you tell us about trends that we face as we head into the winter next year? Well, people often find this odd when we're talking about global warming, but we might actually get a more classic Canadian winter. This is a year for that other natural ocean phenomenon, La Nina, and that often has a cooling effect on the ocean that tends to generate more snow in the west of Canada and more storms in the east. So fingers crossed, this would be a welcome break from the long-term warming trends

and hopefully some relief for everything from water supplies to winter recreation sports and, of course, the natural ecosystem. So big fingers crossed there, Susan. My fingers are crossed as we speak. Thank you so much, Johanna. You're welcome. The CBC's Johanna Wagstaff in Vancouver. That's all for this special edition of Your World Tonight for January 1, 2020.

I'm Susan Bonner. Thank you for joining us and a very happy new year.