Your World Tonight - Federal byelections, Strait of Hormuz, cancer projections, and more

Episode Date: April 13, 2026

Three federal byelections could mark an important milestone for the Carney Liberals. One win would mean the Liberals would have a majority government. We look at what’s at stake in today’s vote.And: The U.S. has imposed a naval blockade on Iran. It went into effect today, after this weekend's talks between the United States and Iran collapsed. The shaky ceasefire is still in effect for another week.  Also: Cancer is still the leading cause of death in Canada. Despite more screening and prevention tools, numerous types of cancer are increasing, according to a new study.Plus:  Drug crisis in British Columbia, Trump vs. the Pope, Ontario restructures school boards, and more.

This is really shaping up to be an incredibly consequential and potentially fast-moving week in Canadian politics. I'm Jamie Poisson, host of the Daily News podcast Front Burner and will be all over this story. The Liberals could lock a majority conservative leader Pierre Pollyev is struggling to control an insurrection in his party ranks. Can he remain party leader? Follow Frontburner for all the analysis you need to understand the moment. This is a CBC podcast. I feel like a majority government is basically at stake here, so it's going to be really interesting to see if this kind of seals that.

I think it's a gift to be able to vote, and we're much more fortunate than a lot of people in the world. Three by-elections that could fundamentally change Canada's political landscape. Two in Toronto, one in the Montreal area. A win in any one of them will give the federal liberals a majority government. This is your world tonight. I'm Stephanie Skandaris. It's Monday, April 13th, coming up on 6 p.m. Eastern. Also on the podcast?

They will never have a nuclear weapon. We agreed to a lot of things, but they didn't agree to that. And I think they will agree to it. I'm almost sure of it. In fact, I am sure of it. If they don't agree, there's no deal. They'll never be a deal. After the collapse of talks and the U.S.

blockade of Iranian ports, Donald Trump, talks tough, and claims once again that Tehran is desperate for a deal. as the world counts down to the end of the temporary ceasefire. Last April, Mark Carney defied political gravity, leading the Liberals to an unlikely election night win. A year later, Carney is poised to pull off another High Wire Act. Voters today are making their picks in a trio of by-elections. Who they choose could give the Liberals a majority government.

Marina von Stackleberg sets the stage from Ottawa. It feels like it's a pretty, I guess, decisive kind of night. A crucial night with voters like Steve Venter casting their ballots in three by-elections that could fortify Prime Minister Mark Carney's power in Parliament. In the Toronto riding of University Rosdale, voter Marjorie Kramer says it's what she wants. I feel comfortable with the policies that are being put in place

and we just need to solidify them with a majority. At a poll in the other Toronto riding of Scarborough Southwest, voter Roger Duncan says he's looking for stability. We've got to stay the course right now. You know, Kearney hasn't really screwed up too badly, so far so good. The two Toronto ridings are considered liberal safe seats. The riding of Terban, north of Montreal, is up in the air. It was long held by the Block Quebec Cua,

but won by the Liberals last spring by one vote. The block went to court to get that win overturned and are hoping to take it back. Turban voter Walter Iber says he's voting block since the liberals seem poised to win a majority without the seat. So I would have given my vote to the liberals even though I'm not liberal. But at this stage, it's not necessary anymore. It's also important to have a counterbalance.

In Ottawa, the opposition parties continue to call foul on how Carney managed to get this close to a majority in the first place, collecting five seats through floor crossers. Conservative Michael Barrett. seems committed to their strategy of backroom deals to achieve a majority in spite of the outcomes of this evening's by-elections. One of the Liberals' by-election candidates used to be the deputy leader of Ontario's new Democrats. The new federal NDP leader Avi Lewis accuses Carney of choosing power over principle.

The liberal tent is stretched so far now that the fabric must be, I don't know, is it spandex? It is something very stretchy. The Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson says Carney is governing effectively. And that's why MPs from all political stripes want to join. What a majority does is it actually gives you time to effectively plan. That's what this country needs right now, given what's going on. Polls analyst Eric Grenier says if Carney wins a majority, it will be tenuous. When you only have a majority of one or two seats, you can be held hostage by one or two MPs.

if you have a majority of five or six, if they get some more floor crosses, then they have a little bit more wiggle. While eyes tonight will be on by-election results, ears in the Capitol are tuned to rumors that more floor crossings could be coming. Marine Yvonne Stackleberg, CBC News, Ottawa. U.S. President Donald Trump claims Iran's blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is the same as extortion. So today, in retaliation, he set up one of his own.

The president says the U.S. Navy will halt any ship in the strait that is doing business with Tehran. Katie Simpson has more on what's happening and what it means for a shaky ceasefire. So now Iran is doing absolutely no business, and we're going to keep it that way very easily. U.S. President Donald Trump defending his decision to impose a new blockade through the Strait of Hormuz. He says American naval assets are now in position to stop any traffic heading into or out of Iranian. ports. It's an attempt to starve Iran's economy of valuable oil revenue and create leverage should peace talks resume. We've been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal. They would like to work a deal. At the same time,

Trump delivered yet another threat. If Iran deploys its fast attack ships anywhere near the American blockade, he says those ships will be eliminated. The same way the U.S. has blown up alleged drugboats in the Caribbean. Iran responding with a series of mixed messages. We are ready for peace and we are ready for war. But we prefer the peace. The Iranian ambassador to India, Mohamed Fathali, leaving the door open for more diplomatic talks, while a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard says Iran plans to introduce new methods of warfare that opponents will have limited ability to counter. Iran first imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz

after the U.S. and Israel launched the war in late February. The move has upended global energy markets, causing gas prices to soar. The regime was supposed to reopen the shipping route as part of the ceasefire agreement reached last week, but has not made good on its promise. The region remains on edge. British Prime Minister Kier Starmor says the UK will co-host a summit this week with France to discuss ways to help reopen the strait.

And let me be very clear, this is about safeguarding shipping and supporting freedom of navigation once the conflict ends. Diplomatic talks to end the conflict hosted by Pakistan broke down over the weekend. Both sides were turning home empty-handed after a marathon 21-hour meeting. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. The U.S. says talks failed in part because Iran refuses to give up its nuclear ambitions. Iran blamed the U.S. saying it does not. trust American negotiators and that the U.S. is constantly shifting goalposts. With the ceasefire set to expire in just over a week, Trump declined to share what he plans to do

if there isn't an agreement. Yeah, I don't want to comment on that, but it won't be pleasant for them. Let me put it at that one. Iran's next moves also remain unclear, adding to the tension across the region. Katie Simpson, CBC News, Washington. The battle over the Strait of Hormuz sent the price of oil back up over $100 U.S. per barrel this morning. But that changed as the day went on. Senior business correspondent Peter Armstrong joins us now. So Peter, first the price of oil went up, then it actually fell. How do you make sense of this?

It doesn't make sense. And it's not just me saying this, right? The head of the International Energy Agency told the conference today that the prices we're seeing in global energy markets simply don't reflect the seriousness of this crisis. They are not reflecting the severity of the problem. I agree. There is a disconnect there.

But I think soon we will see that they will converge, which is, of course, extremely, extremely sensitive issue for the global economy. And look, I've been saying for weeks, analysts have been saying for weeks, the people that usually downplay the severity of crises like this are the ones that are out there sounding alarm bells now. So why aren't prices reflecting the severity of the crisis? Right. So if we're being honest, Stephanie, we don't know, right?

I spoke with one analyst who said that markets and traders, they all know that this is catastrophic. But they feel that it's kind of so catastrophic that there's no way it can continue. The problem there is that that analyst told me that three weeks ago and things have only grown more catastrophic since then. So when and how does this come to a head? You know, the math of this, I think, is important. The world consumes about 100 million barrels of oil a day. And right now we're producing about 87 million barrels. As physical shortages actually crash into various economies, that shortfall is going to hit and it's going to hit hard.

We've seen some of that already, gas prices rising. But what does an actual physical shortage actually look like? It will feel different in different places, right? Sri Lanka, for example, is telling people to work from home. for a day or two a week. Bangladesh closed its university. South Korea has told public servants to alternate the days

they actually drive their cars to work. Rich countries have reserves. So they'll pay more and face some restrictions. poorer countries are more exposed, though. Like Bangladesh uses Katari LNG to fuel its very electricity grid. And that's not coming out of the Gulf either. Here in Canada, we, and more broadly speaking, North America, we're more insulated.

So physical shortages are less likely. but higher prices are pretty much guaranteed. None of that sounds good. So then if we circle back to where we started, why are the markets so non-responsive, so sanguine if it's this bad? It feels a little bit like those early days of COVID. No one really believed we were going to shut down the global economy,

but we did. And that shutdown led to like 8 million fewer barrels of oil being produced to balance things out. We've already seen twice that lost in terms of global production. And so far, most of us are living life as though nothing has changed. The fear is that when it does change, the change will be fast, it will be hard, and it will be painful. Okay, Peter, thank you.

You bet. CBC senior business correspondent Peter Armstrong in Toronto. Israeli troops have launched an attack to seize a key town in South Lebanon from Hezbollah fighters. Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire agreement struck with Iran, and Lebanese authorities say Israeli attacks have killed more than 2,000 people since March. March 2nd. Officials from Israel and Lebanon are set to talk tomorrow. It'll be the first time in decades that envoys from Lebanon and Israel will hold direct talks. But Hezbollah militants have said they aren't interested in talks. Coming right up, Donald Trump blasting his critics is hardly new. But when he takes aim at the Pope, it gets the world's attention. Trump is standing by his comments. Pope Leo isn't shining. away from his either. And it's a devastating diagnosis. Nearly half of Canadians will someday hear.

Cancer. New numbers in the Canadian Medical Association journals suggest an increase in some of the most serious forms. Later, we'll have this story. 10 years, 18,000 deaths. It's officially been a decade since British Columbia declared toxic drugs, a public health emergency, and some say the response is falling short. We have not been doing well. We have not been doing enough and it's really sad. I'm Yasmil Ganea in Vancouver. Later on your world tonight, how politics and public opinion

could be getting in the way of saving lives. The war in Iran is resulting in a war of words between Donald Trump and someone you might think is an unlikely target. The Pope. Aaron Collins brings us the back and forth plus reaction to a bizarre image the U.S. president posted, then removed.

There's nothing to apologize for. Outside the White House, the U.S. President doubling down on his criticism of the Pope. The other thing is he didn't like what we're doing with respect to Iran, but Iran wants to be a nuclear nation so they can exterminate the world. Not going to happen. Donald Trump's war of words with the pontiff escalating as the Iran conflict drags on. Trump has suggested Leo should focus on being a great pope and stay out of politics. On board a flight to Algeria, Pope Leo, seemingly uninterested in sparring with the president.

I do not look at my roles as being political, politician. I don't want to get into a debate with him. Leo had previously criticized Trump's threats to destroy the Iranian civilization. Still, the head of the Catholic Church, clear he'll continue to speak out against the war. Too many people are suffering in the world today. Too many innocent people are killed. And I think someone has to stand up and say there's a better way to do this. The back and forth between the First American Pope and the U.S. President troubling for some outside St. Patrick's Cathedral in New York.

I stand with the Pope. I mean, the Pope speaks the gospel. He speaks for peace. It's terrible. It's gross. It's blasphemous. It's his usual. Trump may have further strained his relationship with Christians with a social media post last night. In an AI-generated image, the president is depicted as a Jesus-like figure with light emanating from his hands as he appears to heal someone. Today, Trump denied the picture was religious. I just heard about it. And I said, how did they come up with that? It's supposed to be me as a doctor. But backlash to the post was swift from across the political spectrum.

It's really unforgivable in that sense. It's really, as I said, it's shameful. Miguel Diaz is a theologian at Loyal. University in Chicago and the former U.S. ambassador to the Vatican. Whether it's Republican or Democrat, this isn't a matter of politics. This is a matter of religious principles. This is a matter of valuing what is most sacred. That post has now been taken down, but between the post and feuding with the Pope, the political damage to the president with American Christians may already have been done.

Aaron Collins, CBC News, Calgary. Hungary's new president says he was, will be suspending the country's public state media. Peter Majar says it's time to ensure news on public TV and radio is unbiased. Madjar ran on a promise of stopping what he calls state-funded propaganda. His center-right TISA party won a sweeping majority yesterday, capturing at least 138 of the 199 seats in Hungary's parliament. Cancer is still the leading cause of death in Canada,

and a new study shows multiple types of the disease are rising, despite more screening and prevention tools. Tashana Reid breaks down the worrying trends doctors are tracking. It's a positive for malignant cells. Cancer has touched 38-year-old Jason Ellis's life in unimaginable ways. In high school, he lost his mother to breast cancer. Five years ago, his wife, Maryland, was diagnosed with late-stage sarcoma that spread to her lungs. Jason was with her every step of the way through treatment.

One year later, at age 30, she passed away. It completely obliterated everything. We had just but our first house, wanted to settle down, have kids. And last summer, another devastating diagnosis, this time, his own, a stage 3 head and neck cancer. Everything just shifted. It was almost a, I can't believe it, moment. According to new modeling, published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, cancer numbers are holding steady. This year, it suggests more than 254,000 Canadians will be diagnosed,

and nearly 88,000 people will die from it. Jennifer Gillis in Halifax is with the Canadian Cancer Society and co-author of the paper. Cancer continues to have a tremendous impact. Long breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers are expected to account for nearly half of new cases. And there are concerning trends. Pancreatic and uterine cancers are increasing. One of the leading risk factors for those cancer types is excess body weight. Nearly half of the Canadian population has a waist circumference that puts them at elevated risk. Cervical and head and neck cancers are also on the rise, despite prevention tools like screening programs and an HPV vaccine. We aren't getting the coverage that is needed. About 75% of individuals will be exposed to human.

papilloma virus. And it can cause cancers that affect both men and women. But there is some progress. Bladder cancer is on the decline. And since the early 2000s, colorectal cancer cases have decreased by 30 percent, in part thanks to early detection. We also have better treatments and better surgeries. Dr. Sebastian Hott is an oncologist at the Jervinsky Cancer Center in Hamilton and says these advancements mean people are living longer. Some of the patients that I would see 20 years ago would live on average a year. Now seven to 10 years later, they are still alive and well on treatment. As for Jason Ellis, he completed chemo and radiation in December. I'm still struggling with side effects, with potential for reoccurrence, but also really truly living my life because I have a chance to. He will continue

to be monitored while he navigates his life after treatment. To show, Shawna Reed, CBC News, Toronto. Ontario is making big changes to the way it runs the province's education system, from how its 72 school boards are managed, right down to attendance and grades for more than 2 million students. Jamie Strassan has more. I have a spare at the morning. Sometimes I get family responsibilities, so I have to skip.

It's just after lunch at Toronto's Jarvis Collegiate and Grade 12 student, Bilal Rahimi, is again running a little behind. I'm the oldest child, so I skip school a lot. It's not because I want to, but it's because I have to. Rahimi and others across Ontario may soon pay the price as part of sweeping new education legislation. Attendance could account for 15% of a student's mark in grades 9 and 10, 10% in grades 11 and 12, education minister Paul Calandra.

All of you here today, I mean, if you're not here, you can't call it in, right? You have to be here and do your work. That is what students are going to face when they're out. out in public when they're out working. The change is long overdue, says education consultant Paul Bennett. It's a legacy of the pandemic, which doubled the irregularized and normalized student absenteeism. Chronic absenteeism became the norm, not an exception. A universal exam period for all Ontario students is also being proposed.

Much of the legislation, which has yet to be passed, focuses on government. A continuance of the province's ongoing battle with school trustees and some of Ontario's largest school boards. I wanted to ensure that we removed the distractions that come from trustees from the system. So the new roles of a trustee will be significantly reduced from what it was from what it was before. The number of elected trustees will be capped at 12. Currently in the Toronto District School Board, the country's largest, there are 22. Eight school boards, including the TDSB, are currently under provincial control with the role of trustees suspended. That will continue, Calandra says.

Toronto parent Jen Engel says with trustees sidelined, parents have lost a key line of communication. I think not having trustees in a meaningful position really takes away parents' ability to advocate for themselves. I really felt that the school board was kind of waiting for parents to just get tired and go away. The province is also proposing a new CEO role to oversee budgeting and spending at each school board. The University of Ottawa's Sachin Maharaj says the impacts of more centralized governance and control is already being felt in some classrooms, including increased class sizes, job cuts, and program reductions. When you have changes in governance that emphasizes this more finance-based approach to education, you can expect to see these types of changes being put in place.

And more could be coming. Calandra says he won't hesitate to make more changes to how the province's 2 million students learn. Jamie Strash in CBC News, Toronto. Tragic and preventable. That's the conclusion of an inquiry into a deadly knife attack. at a children's dance class in the UK almost two years ago. Three children died and ten other people were injured by an attacker who burst into their Taylor Swift-themed class.

The attacker was a 17-year-old. Inquiry chair, Adrian Fulford, says his parents and various social agencies could have stopped him if they'd taken responsibility for his worrying behavior much earlier. I cannot stress too strongly, therefore, that what happened on that terrible day was not to use the familiar phrase a bolt of lightning out of a clear blue sky.

Instead, some form of grave violence by AR had been clearly, repeatedly, and unambiguously signposted over many years. The attacker pleaded guilty and is serving a life sentence. Tomorrow, it'll be 10 years since British Columbia declared a public health emergency over an alarming number of toxic drug deaths.

Hundreds of people were dying every year. The emergency gave the province extra powers to deal with the crisis, but provincial officials say the emergency isn't over. Yasmin Renéya reports. He wanted help. He didn't get a chance. Janet Milbrat last saw her son Liam on Mother's Day four years ago. I said, you know, love you, be good.

Love you too, Ma. Liam was found dead a week later, alone in his apartment. He was 26. One of more than 18,000 British Columbians killed by toxic drugs since 2016 when BC declared a public health emergency. This is an extraordinary challenge. That's Dr. Perry Kendall, then provincial health officer.

The emergency declaration granted him and the province sweeping powers to create a vast support system aimed at saving lives. A lot more effort was put into increasing access to overdose prevention sites, to naloxone, to harm reduction. But deaths kept climbing. Straight drugs now poisoned by fentanyl. Then COVID hit and homelessness rose too.

Overdoses peaking in 2023 at nearly seven deaths a day. There was a lot of pushback. At the same time, people were alarmed to see users near schools, in parks, even hospitals, and were complaining to politicians. In April 2024, opposition. MLA Shirley Bond raised concerns in the BC legislature. Victoria General Hospital has been forced to install safety alarms in the maternity ward to detect toxic fentanyl smoke.

Later that month, as a result of public pressure, the province's NDP government moved to ban public drug use, backing away from a core part of its decriminalization strategy which aimed to reduce stigma. Then scrap decriminalization altogether earlier this year, which drug policy expert Cora DeBeck says was a mistake. Public disorder was there before decriminalization. It was there during decriminalization, and it is there now after decriminalization. The government is now focused on drug treatment, including forcing some people to enter involuntary

care facilities. De Bex says it's hard to know if this approach is working because the government isn't collecting enough data. It's very surprising how little we know given how much emphasis we are putting on addiction treatment in this crisis. Health Minister Jody Osborne says there's no silver bullet. It's important for all of us to learn and to try new tools, but make public policy decisions too in the context of the society that we're living in.

After losing her son, Janet Milbrat voted for the BCNDP because of its focus on harm reduction. Every day somebody is going through what we went through. It was the worst day of our life. She says the priorities should be keeping people alive long enough to get help. Yes, Milanea, CBC News, Vancouver. Finally tonight, AI-powered drones, being used by Alberta to tackle a growing problem. The wild boar population. It has exploded in recent years, and this invasive species is considered an agricultural and ecological threat.

Wild boar pose a serious risk for the introduction of spread of foreign animal diseases, including African swine fever. and foot and mouth disease, and these would have a massive financial impact on the pork industry. That's wild boar specialist Hannah McKenzie, sounding the alarm in a CBC interview last December. She's led a new provincial study along with the University of Calgary. It now shows automated drones using thermal imaging, effectively identified and counted the elusive hogs, particularly at night. Ryan Brooke of the Canadian Wild Pig Research Project, says the drones complete the puzzle that helps teams trap the animals.

The only real effective approach to this problem is professional teams of people going out and removing wild boar. Scientists are also hopeful the AI-equipped drones could speed the response of those ground teams if there's ever a serious disease outbreak. This has been Your World Tonight for Monday, April 13th. I'm Stephanie Scandaris. Thank you for being with us. Good night. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.ca.