Your World Tonight - Trump targets China, recession fears, economics on the campaign trail, the mood in Alberta, and more

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Donald Trump issued a new ultimatum to China on tariffs as the stock market backlash to the president’s trade action continued. Monday trading kicked off with a rollercoaster ride on worldwide markets and the day ended with further losses across the board, including the price of crude oil which hit a new low. Federal party leaders all addressed the economic uncertainty on the campaign trail, with Liberal Leader Mark Carney saying the risk of recession in the United States has gone up “significantly” and it will have an impact on the Canadian economy. And this is a special edition of Your World Tonight. We are in Alberta, exploring the issues that matter to Albertans in this federal election campaign and how those feelings could shape the national conversation.

When a body is discovered 10 miles out to sea, it sparks a mind-blowing police investigation. There's a man living in this address in the name of a deceased. He's one of the most wanted men in the world. This isn't really happening. Officers are finding large sums of money. It's a tale of murder, skullduggery and international intrigue. So who really is he? I'm Sam Mullins and this is Sea of Lies from CBC's Uncovered, available now.

This is a CBC Podcast. Welcome to a special edition of Your World Tonight from Alberta, the core of Canada's energy sector, the heartland of conservative politics, a province that may be the nexus of this country's next national unity challenge. I think we're just kind of fed up with it, right? Like it needs to be addressed and it needs to be looked at. One of the major party leaders is in the province tonight trying to become the next Prime Minister. Pierre Pauliev will be joined by someone who used to have that job, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

We're outside that rally where thousands are expected. Federal elections aren't decided here but what is happening in the Alberta campaign could very well change the national conversation. Like I know of us and all our neighbours, like we're pretty proud Canadians and proud Albertans too, right? The threat from Donald Trump, the worry that Canada may use Alberta's lifeblood, its energy resources to fight back, and the tensions within the province about how all of that threatens to drown out other concerns. We hear oil and gas, oil and gas, oil and gas.

Grappling with the crisis that goes far beyond this province and this country. I'm Susan Bonner just outside Edmonton. We have much more from Alberta but we begin with the latest on that crisis. Donald Trump's trade war and the economic turmoil and uncertainty it's creating here and around the world. creating here and around the world. With stock markets around the world plummeting, global leaders planning retaliation, and real concern that Donald Trump's trade aggression could trigger a recession,

the U.S. president is not backing off. In fact, he's doing the opposite, threatening another economic superpower with even higher tariffs. The CBC's Katie Simpson has more from Washington. We are a friend of Israel, as you know. President Donald Trump sitting in the Oval Office next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, listening closely to his new pitch to escape U.S. tariffs.

We will eliminate the trade deficit with the United States. We intend to do it very quickly and I think Israel can serve as a model for many countries who ought to do the same. While Trump did not confirm Israel will avoid tariffs, he seemed to welcome the promise. At the same time, he lashed out at China after it took a very different route, imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods. If that tariff isn't removed by tomorrow at 12 o'clock, we're putting a 50% tariff on above the tariffs that we put on.

If Trump makes good on that threat, it would bring Beijing's total tariff rate to 104%, a staggering number on a country that ships billions of dollars of goods into the U.S. Well, it's really hard to really grasp, I think, how big this is. Inu Manik is a fellow for trade policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. She says this will make life more expensive in the U.S. and sends a message to America's trading partners.

Well, I think what we're seeing is really no distinction between an ally or an enemy at this point. That if you decide to retaliate, we're going to hit back again. The idea that Trump could hit back harder is weighing on world leaders, including the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. We stand ready to negotiate with the United States, but we are also prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests.

After a weekend of mixed messaging, Trump signaled he is, in fact, open to negotiations. We're going to get fair deals and good deals with every country, and if we don't, we're going to have nothing to do with them. Trump says he's willing to cut deals before reciprocal tariffs kick in on Wednesday, but also warned new tariffs for some countries will be permanent. Katie Simpson, CBC News, Washington. The latest tariff threats are adding to the stock market turmoil that started last week,

wiping out trillions of dollars in value in a matter of days. A financial roller coaster ride that restarted with the new trading week. Nisha Patel takes us through the ups and downs. As the trading day kicked off in North America, another steep sell-off. Then National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was asked this on Fox News. Will you do a 90-day pause? Would you consider that?

Or a bill? Yeah, you know, I think that the president is going to decide what the president's going to decide. That was enough to spark speculation that tariffs may be paused and markets jumped into the green. Then the White House clarified, calling a tariff pause fake news, which sent stocks tumbling again. Well, the sentiment is still very, very negative. Barry Schwartz, chief investment officer at Baskin Wealth Management, says investors are desperate for clarity. So obviously it's a moving target. From today's action, it seems that the market

is trying to find a bottom. There were sharp warnings from Wall Street leaders. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, a Trump backer, said America was headed for an economic nuclear winter. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, speaking in New York, said he could see stock markets falling another 20%. Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now.

Even if tariffs are adjusted, experts say much economic damage has already been done. Jared Bernstein served as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors under former U.S. President Joe Biden. The 30 trillion dollar U.S. economy is essentially being driven down the road 120 miles an hour by people who you know are really pretty deeply incompetent. All this volatility is difficult to stomach for retail investors, especially those nearing retirement. Barry Schwartz says he expects markets to recover eventually.

Markets can't keep going down every single day on the same news. At some point in time there'll be some stability. By the end of the day most markets closed flat or had lost about 1 percent. But with Trump doubling down on tariffs, investors may have to prepare for more wild swings in the months ahead. Nisha Patel, CBC News, Toronto. When your economies are this close, it's not really a ripple effect but a tidal wave.

And from investors to employees and workers, Canadians are getting hit hard with the government's response to the tariff war becoming a defining issue on the federal campaign. Tom Perry has the latest. Yes, the probability of a recession in the United States has gone up significantly. With stock markets around the world in panic mode and Donald Trump threatening even steeper tariffs against China, Liberal leader Mark Carney says a recession in the U.S., one that will have an impact on Canada, now looks like more of a sure thing.

The situation at the heart of this is uncertainty about US policy, or to make it worse, is greater certainty that US policy will be self-harming to the American economy, and therefore the global economy, if the US doesn't walk back from this terror policy. Both Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poliev were campaigning in B.C. today, where Poliev blamed the current financial turmoil squarely on the U.S. We have to acknowledge that this chaos is the direct result of wrong-headed, unnecessary, chaotic policies coming from President Trump. The Conservative leader at the same time warning voters not to trust the liberals to get them

through this crisis. The last thing we need is to take a risk on the failed ideas of Mark Carney. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto today where he too acknowledged Trump's tariffs could push the U.S. into recession. It's a real threat. There are real concerns that we might find ourselves in a position where we're up against a lot of difficulty. Singh says the federal government will need to support Canadian workers. Carney, in his role as Prime Minister, said he's spoken with his Minister of Finance as well as the

Governor of the Bank of Canada. Carney also met today with BC Premier David Eby, who's worried about what U.S. tariffs will mean for his province's lumber industry. While off the campaign trail, Ontario Premier Doug Ford unveiled $11 billion worth of tax deferments and rebates to support businesses in his province as they struggle with the non-stop chaos coming from the U.S. Tom Perry, CBC News, Ottawa. The economic turmoil is starting to have an impact on the price of crude oil. Here in Alberta, that hits home harder than anywhere else in the country.

Madeleine Cummings reports. I think right now you have to take some deep breaths. It's still early days. The price of U.S. crude oil plunged to a new low today, dipping below $60 a barrel. Oil and gas were exempted from Donald Trump's latest tariffs, but ATB Financial's chief economist Mark Parsons says investors are increasingly concerned about the global demand for oil decreasing. The biggest fears, that the trade war

could lead to a US recession, a global slowdown and higher inflation. That could mean job losses, he says. If oil prices stay low and persistently low, and that's the key, the duration is key here, then you start to see only gas companies looking at cutting back on capital investment and that's when it hits employment. But Parsons says the industry is more resilient than it used to be. Canadian oil prices are relatively strong and the Trans Mountain expansion

has increased pipeline capacity. John Jeffrey, the CEO of Saturn Oil and Gas in Calgary, says his company is flexible but may turn off drilling in a week or two if prices remain low. Until we start to see a more stable reliable consistent oil price you're just start to see a more stable, reliable, consistent oil price, you're just going to see us be defensive. Sustained lower prices would take a huge bite out of the Alberta government's budget. The province was already planning for a $5.2 billion deficit this year based on an assumption that the US benchmark crude oil would cost $68 per barrel.

But Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she's not panicking yet. We had a lot of variation last year. We have a worst case scenario budget. We knew that we were going to end up with a lot of volatility. All that volatility and uncertainty is leaving Canada's energy sector bracing itself for the future. Madeline Cummings, CBC News, Edmonton. [♪techno music playing on video.♪

Coming right up, the trade war has provoked a lot of talk about Canadian unity. In Alberta, there's renewed discussion about separatism. And Conservatives are on track for big success across the province. We'll check on a few places expecting tighter races. Those stories coming up on Your World Tonight. Alberta's premier also addressed another issue bubbling up this election, Western alienation. Daniel Smith says she's all for a Team Canada approach to the trade war, but Liberal policies are forcing her province to take a back seat. Olivia Stefanovic has more from Edmonton.

The election is going to be decided before we have a chance to vote. It's a long-standing grievance in Western Canada, now refueling a push about breaking up the country, led in part by Wexit founder Peter Downing. The separatist movement is going to absolutely explode even more than when Trudeau was in back in 2019. Downing is part of a minority right now, but recent polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows only one quarter of residents in Alberta and Saskatchewan feel their province is respected

by the rest of the country. If that sentiment is out there some mechanism should be provided for it. Reform party founder Preston Manning told CBC radio's The House he wants to see a constitutional conference for Western Canada following the federal election. Should Liberal leader Mark Carney win? So only the politically naive would believe when Mr. Carney when he says that. The idea that the Liberals are going to accelerate East-West pipelines just invokes sardonic laughter in many parts of Western Canada.

I think such dramatic comments are unhelpful at a time. Carney, who was born in the Northwest Territories and grew up in Alberta, says he is committed to building more pipelines and chided Manning for suggesting otherwise. This is the time when we need to come together as a country. We need to unite the country. Conservative leader Pierre Poliev is also distancing himself from Manning. I want Canada to work.

I want Canada to work. I want Canada to be able to meet its potential. But Alberta Premier Daniel Smith is warning of a national unity crisis if the next federal government doesn't meet nine policy demands to advance oil and gas production and end the emissions cap placed by the federal government on the industry. There is a lot of frustration on the part of Albertans and I think there's a lot of unhappiness in the way we've been treated by the liberal government for the past 10 years.

Smith says if the next government doesn't comply with her demands, she won't lead a campaign to take Alberta out of Canada but would strike a panel to give Albertans a chance to identify issues that could be put to a referendum. A rally to make that happen is already being planned for next month. Olivia Stefanovic, CBC News, Edmonton. A quick roundup from the campaign trail. Conservative leader Pierre Poliev started his day in B.C.'s Northwest with a new promise to cut regulations.

I call it one and done. One desk called the Rapid Resource Project Office will handle all regulatory approvals across all levels of government. The Liberal leader is also in BC speaking from Vancouver Island. Mark Carney says his government will provide help to retirees in the face of US tariffs. The measure would lower the minimum withdrawal amounts for RRSPs by 25%. In Toronto, the NDP leader delivered another pledge to tackle the housing crisis. Our plan is to build 3 million homes in the next 5 years. Not just build those homes, but build homes that people can actually afford. Jagmeet Singh also met with Hudson's Bay staff affected by the retailers collapse.

He says an NDP government would ensure workers get paid before creditors when a company declares bankruptcy. And the Bloc leader spent his day in Montreal. Yves-Francois Blanchet visited a non-profit that supports musicians, promising more protections for arts and culture in Quebec. Now to how the federal election campaign is playing out in Alberta. The Conservatives hold all but four

of the ridings in the province. Three of those four ridings are in Edmonton. Sam Sampson is taking a look at some of the competitive races. The crew at Rogue Wave Coffee does it all from roasting beans in the back to pulling espresso shots in their central Edmonton storefront. I would like to vote for the candidate that has the best pour-over coffee game. Part owner David Lavelle lives in the neighborhood too,

so he's considering his livelihood and quality of life this federal election. I would probably really look at the candidate that has a long history in this city and in this riding. Candidates that support local organizations and if they are voted in, that they really will push hard to see this this riding improve. And around here every vote counts. But it is exciting to be in a riding where all three parties have a chance of winning.

Edmonton Centre has historically flipped between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Last time the Liberals took it with just a 1.3 margin of victory. This time the race is wide open. Incumbent Randy Boissoneau, a former cabinet minister, is not running again after last year's controversy over his shifting claims of Indigenous heritage and questions over some business dealings. This is an unusual riding in Alberta in the sense it can go to either party.

John Sierowski is an associate professor of political science at McEwen University. He says new liberal candidate lawyer Eleanor Olshusky and conservative Syed Ahmed, a director in Alberta's health department, are now squaring off. But he adds the NDP's Trisha Estabrooks makes things interesting with name recognition as a former CBC reporter turned school trustee. I think there's probably some likelihood that there will be vote splitting that'll benefit the conservatives here.

So will a strong NDP candidate, you know, end up taking away crucial votes from the Liberal candidate. The NDP comfortably won Edmonton Strathcona in 2021 and wants to keep the riding of Edmonton Griesbach where it narrowly beat out the conservatives. A place where voters we spoke with don't yet seem to be swayed. I have voted conservative, liberal, NDP, everything but green and I've lost faith in the whole system. Yeah I'm thinking about voting strategically just like I have a certain party I don't like

and I would prefer them not to get seats. And Sam what would a win mean for each of these main parties? Well, Swarovski, that political scientist, says if the liberals can nab a seat in Edmonton, it would secure Western representation in a pretty divisive time. For the NDP, considering how troubling the polls are for them nationally, these urban Edmonton ridings can help secure official party status. And if the Conservatives can flip Edmonton Centre and Edmonton Gings can help secure official party status. And if the conservatives can flip Edmonton Center and Edmonton Griesbaugh, Northern Alberta may prove true to blue once again. And I should

add, Susan, there are other groups running in Edmonton Center, including three independents, as well as candidates from the Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Christian heritage, and People's Party. And they're all vying for this key Edmonton riding. Thank you, Sam. You're welcome. Sam Sampson in Edmonton. This is Your World Tonight from CBC News. If you want to make sure you stay up to date and never miss one of our episodes, follow

us on Spotify, Apple, wherever you get your podcasts. Just find the follow button and lock us in. Let's move the map to southern Alberta now. Cattle country, agriculture, an area framed by the prairie, the foothills of the Rockies and the U.S. border. Once wealthy coal mining country, the debate over that industry is back on the agenda, but it's threats from the U.S. that dominate this campaign.

A crowd gathers for a night of laughs, an antidote to the anxiety of the times. Lethbridge is less than an hour's drive from the U.S. border. of the Times. Lethbridge is less than an hour's drive from the US border. Michelle, who asked us not to use her last name, says that hangs heavily over people here. So much is at stake. I mean, will they have a home? Will they have a job? Will they have freedom? Will they be oppressed by the states? It's a little weird. It's a little weird. The American... Comedienne Jules Baloufi doesn't joke about politics, but still. You know, I did one show recently and they booed me right away when I said I was American.

A different soundtrack to the stress of the times on the Plateau Ranch, about an hour outside Lethbridge. John Smith and Laura Lange run the third generation family business with almost 500 head of cattle. It's calving season here. The herds thrive, but like Ontario's auto sector, Alberta's second largest industry relies on the U.S. market to thrive. It's escaped tariffs so far, but just the threat is driving down business. They go across the border, then they come back again too. The tariffs we could get hit a couple of times on the market

and those projections of a thousand dollars per head sort of considered those tariff issues. They've battled drought, coal mining and the threat of toxins and now the U.S. And if this election comes down to whether Pierre Poliev or Mark Carney is best to take on Trump, Smith sees no easy answer. It's a different wing, same bird. There's not that much difference between the two parties. And at the end of the day, the parties are going to say whatever they need to say to get elected. The noise about a national unity crisis does break through their work,

but he doesn't believe most Albertans want to leave Canada. I mean there's a little bit of that sentiment but I think the majority of people don't feel that way. I mean that's usually the loud minority that I think makes that noise. The tension with Ottawa is real but there are provincial tensions too. I think we get taken for granted in this industry a lot and you know we hear oil and gas, oil and gas, oil and gas here and resource development and that's what's actually put us as ranchers in a difficult point because as soon as we speak out against a resource we're considered anti-resource.

It's not just energy and agriculture coping with the threat of crippling tariffs. They've already hit Southland Trailers in Lethbridge, one of the biggest employers in town. Six plants producing gleaming trailers made of aluminum and steel. Half their business now hit with 25% tariffs. And we need change. Scott Saylor says the family business hopes to escape the tariff soon, but... If we can't navigate it, like, you know, hundreds of hundreds of layoffs and whatnot like it's not a pretty situation he blames the Liberal

government in Ottawa I think we're just kind of fed up with it right certain parties don't really seem to care for Alberta and in Lethbridge where people have elected a conservative federally for close to a hundred years that's a common theme when you grow up with the word Trudeau being a four-letter word in your household, like most Albertans have, at least of my generation, it really does become entrenched in your soul. But Lethbridge Herald editor Scott Sackage says liberals could have a stronger showing this time thanks to new leadership

and the terror threat. There are people who are kicking the tires on the Liberal Party and thinking maybe whether it follows them all the way to the polls is hard to say. But again, there's an energy here that I have not seen before towards the Liberals. So some tight races in Edmonton, some suspense caused by the unprecedented nature of this campaign. But overall, Conservatives are expected to have another strong performance on election night. Jason Markossov covers politics here. Jason, if Liberals do better, even just increasing their share of the vote, will that change

Alberta politics? The last two times out in 2019 and 2021, the Liberals actually finished third. They were really unpopular under Trudeau and so they finished behind the NDP. Right now they are sucking a lot of that vote away from the NDP and people are seeing that Carney is not Trudeau, that he is more popular. They're giving the liberals much more of a fair shake and that will affect Alberta politics in some way. I think that conservative premiers in the past, Danielle Smith, Jason Kenney before her, really banked on the fact that the Liberals were deeply unpopular in Alberta. They used Liberal support to really bash the provincial NDP, now led by Nahed Nenshi. And the more support

there is for the Liberals, the less you can do that, the less you can say that Albertans really reject a Liberal government, should there be one. And what about comments from the former leader of the opposition, Preston Manning, who said that if the Liberals win, it will force a national unity crisis. We're talking about a minority of Albertans who support either the Liberals or the NDP. This is still a conservative country, especially outside the two big cities. People are really strong conservatives and some people are really deeply believing in the conservatives and they've been

frustrated as they were back two decades ago during the Kretien Liberal run that Ontario and other provinces keep voting in the Liberals and the rock-ripped support of the conservatives for, in Alberta, doesn't really matter. There'll be those who are disaffected who feel like the rest of Canada is not following what Alberta wants and those voices will only get louder should the Liberals win on April 28th. But on one hand, while you do have this vocal minority that will strongly reject any Liberal government and maybe their separatist or alienated views may increase, there is also this groundwell of unity just like there is in Quebec that people are more likely to embrace the Canadian flag, more likely to embrace a central government, a strong government.

So for a lot of people they'll be waving the flag of Canada way before they wave the flag of Alberta. Thank you Jason. My pleasure. The CBC's Jason Markossoff in Calgary. Jason. Hey, my pleasure. The CBC's Jason Markosoff in Calgary. Finally tonight, a baseball mega deal keeps a Toronto Blue Jays superstar from flying away. Glad he gets it in the air to right, Santander. Back it's gonna go.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with an opposite field home run in the Blue Jays lead three to nothing. Deep center. He's certainly got enough of this one, didn't he? An absolute bomb to straightaway center. Vladdy's first of the season. That's got it. Baseball fans across the country are hoping to hear more of that over the next 14 years. The Toronto Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have reportedly agreed on a $500 million contract extension,

by far the most expensive in team history, and the second most lucrative contract ever in Major League Baseball. It also has sentimental value. Guerrero Jr. was born in Canada while his dad played for the Montreal Expos and he was signed by the Jays as a teenager. I think it's really exciting. I think Vlad's a great addition to the city and it's great to see how much he loves Toronto as well. You had to do it. Either they had to do it or someone else was going to.

It draws people in, right? Money makes money. Good as long as the team progresses through, you know. It's a bet they have to take, so. For the Blue Jays fan base, Vladdy, as he's known, represented a real risk. After the team failed to lure several marquee players to Canada, it also failed to come to terms with Guerrero Jr. over the winter. And the 26-year-old was ready to hit the open market

at the end of this season. So the homegrown star's decision to stay represents real relief for Jays fans. Not that the contract doesn't come with some anxiety. The Jays are spending half a billion dollars on one player. So the pressure to get the deal done now becomes pressure to win. Thanks for joining us. This has been Your World Tonight for Monday, April 7th. I'm Susan Bonner, Just Outside Edmonton. Good night.