Barn Talk - Barn Talk Hot Topics: Ukraine War, Russia's Downfall?

Episode Date: October 11, 2022

Welcome to Barn Talk! Dad’s insomnia has once again gotten the best of him. He’s been soaking up all the info on the Geopolitical tensions plaguing the world. Got the big words out for this one. There is a lot going on around the globe that is going to eventually affect us here at home. We are going to give you our take and where we think it's all headed. So let's get after it! But first, Pay the Fee! Barn Talk Merch! 👇🏻 https://www.thislldo.co/ SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST ➱ https://bit.ly/3a7r3nR SUBSCRIBE TO THIS’LL DO FARM ➱ https://bit.ly/2X8g45c SUBSCRIBE TO BARN TALK CLIPS ➱ https://bit.ly/3BlZnqq LISTEN ON: SPOTIFY ➱ https://open.spotify.com/show/3icVr4KWq4eUDl7Oy60YMY ITUNES ➱ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/barn-talk/id1574395049 Follow Behind The Scenes👇🏻 ● This’ll Do Farm Instagram ➱ https://bit.ly/30KPBNk ● Barn Talk TikTok ➱ https://bit.ly/3qciekS ● Sawyer’s Instagram  ➱ https://bit.ly/3BtX0n4 ● Tork’s Instagram ➱ https://bit.ly/3LGZJxS ------------------------------- ***PLEASE NOTE*** Barn Talk is a significant break from the typical content viewers have come to expect from This’ll Do Farm. Please be advised that we will be exploring a wide variety of topics (some adult-themed) and our younger viewers (and their parents) should be advised that some topics will be for mature audiences only. ⚠NO FINANCIAL ADVICE / DISCLAIMER⚠ The Information discussed and shared on Barn Talk is provided for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or success for any particular purpose. The Information contained in or provided from or through this podcast is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. The Information on this podcast and provided from or through our content is general in nature and is not specific to you, the user or anyone else. You should not make any decision, financial, investment, trading or otherwise, based on any of the information presented on this podcast without undertaking independent due diligence and consultation with a professional, professional broker or financial advisory. Understand that you are using any and all Information available on or through this website at your own risk. RISK STATEMENT– The trading of Bitcoins, alternative cryptocurrencies, NFTs, individual stocks, etc. has potential rewards, and it also has potential risks involved. Trading may not be suitable for all people. Anyone wishing to invest should seek his or her own independent financial or professional advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All of the food we eat and much of the clothing we wear comes from plants and animals that are raised on farms. Farms are different in type, in size, and even in name. Welcome to Barn Talk. What happens at the barn stays in the barn. Until now, we're going to let it all out for you guys. Today is going to be a Barn Talk Hot Topics episode. So we're going to just go over kind of the formats of our shows because we haven't done that in a while. And if you're new, you might not know what the hell's going on. So Barn Talk Hot Topics is where we talk about, what's going on in the world. All the shit that's going on, we just talk about it. We get political on our barn talk hot topics. We talk about economics and geopolitics and just what's going on in the world

because everybody wants to know and we just want to share our thoughts on it. So that's what Barn Talk Hot Topics is. Then we have Barn Talk Q&A where you guys submit your questions in at BarnTalk Show at Gmail.com. If you want to submit your questions in, Barn Talk Show at Gmail.com. Read your questions and then we answer them on on our show. And that's Barn Talk Q&A. And then we also have just straight interviews with a lot of interesting people. Last week, we had an amazing guest, Claire Dunn. She's a country music singer. If you haven't watched or listened to that, I highly, highly recommend. But the bigger we get, the more interesting guests we can get on. And we just kind of have everybody that we can get on from all kind of walks of life. So yeah, that's the other format. And sometimes we talk a little bit about just

mindset and stuff like that, um, that we get a little more deep on. But those are kind of the formats. And today, dad kind of went down a rabbit hole of what's going on on the world stage, geopolitics. So we're going to get into a lot of that today with the whole Russia, China, Ukraine deal and what it's going to do to affect us as Americans and how it's going to play out on the world stage, what we think is going to happen. Um, uh, so yeah, but before we get into all that, if you guys get any value from the show, pay the fee. It's of the ticket to admission to watch or listen to the show by sharing the show. That's that's kind of the, you know, that's the deal. So it helps us out tremendously and we appreciate everybody that's been doing that. So share it out with your friends, coworkers, family members, employees, whoever.

And if you want to help us a step further, because I know there's a lot of overachievers out there, leave a review on Spotify or Apple or go subscribe to our YouTube. All that stuff, guys, is very, very helpful and pushes us out further to more people. Helps us get more. interesting guests on, have better conversations. So we just appreciate everybody that's been doing that and we're just getting fucking started. So we're going to keep on rolling. So without further ado, let's get into a freaking market update. All right. I haven't had one of those in a minute. I don't feel like. No, we haven't. And harvest in the Midwest is in full swing. Around here, it's, I'd say there's people that are probably, well, I'm sure there's people that are probably a third done with harvest at the rate

that it goes anymore and we've made well we might be a third done almost we're just about we got almost one cornfield done and yep so uh yields are all over the place i think this year uh around here it was really dry we were extremely dry and so hybrid selection makes a huge difference a huge difference because there's some hybrids out there that are doing really really well and some that aren't and I think it all comes down to hybrid selection soil type and whether you caught a tenth of a inch here and a tenth of an inch there because they were a few and far between. But today, I think corn was down a little bit the last time I looked.

Beans were back up. They were down hard on Friday. There was a USDA report that came out with the ending stocks, and we had fewer ending stocks for corn and for wheat, and we had a lot more beans than we thought we had. if you can take any stock in what USDA thinks, and a lot of people don't. But corn, the high bid I saw, and this,

I think this is probably still good right now, 690 at Eddyville, and local here, one of the local feed mills, I think has 688, which I wouldn't drive to Eddieville, if you can get 688, 10 miles from here. 676 on the board last I checked, so that tells you how good the basis is around here. Soybeans, 3,000, 3808, 10 miles from here.

1327 and that's on the Iowa side. I think they're 13. Oh, did I say 16? 1327 on the on the Iowa side and 1353, I think, at, on the, at Quincy. And 1374 on the board. Beanmeal. I didn't, I don't think I checked. I think that number might be wrong. I had 435, but I don't think that's right.

wheat 917 and oil's $83 a barrel which it's actually down a little bit from the last time I checked cattle $145 gold 1699 silver's $20 so silver's actually up a little bit compared to where gold's at gold hasn't really gone anywhere last time I checked silver I think it was $17 Tesla's $242 a share dirt, cheap. They had AI Day, a day before yesterday, and most stock analysts aren't smart enough

to understand half of what they talk about at AI day, but they also announced their quarterly deliveries, and I think it was 365,000 cars, and the consensus was a little higher than that. I want to say like 10,000 more, so they're just beating a living piss out of the stock.

today, which that's fine. Whatever, I'll just buy more whenever I can, whenever I take cans back. It's still this cheap. I'll buy some more. Bitcoin, $19,400. It doesn't seem, it can't get over the hump. Although I will say Bitcoin is weathering the strong dollar better than a lot of other currencies are as far as staying up. I think the British pound hit an all-time, maybe not an all-time low, but a 20-year low against the dollar. In fact, I think there's a good chance that as you hear this, I think the dollar may be equal to a dollar, which is the lowest it's been in, I think, like, 20 years. So that's the hot and fast market update. What I wanted to talk about today, and I don't think we've really discussed it, is the war in Ukraine, as far as, as small view, but how all of this is working on the world stage, and it is all, it is all

intertwined, and it's starting to come unraveled, I think. And so I think the newest development that has just happened over the last 24 hours is the Ukrainians, they liberated the town of Lyman, if I'm pronouncing that right. And the significance of that is that basically what they've done is they've split what Russia controls in half. And the main highway that runs from the north, from Belarus, down to the south, runs right through Lyman. And they control that now. In fact, I think they're 25 or 30 miles past that. They're moving so fast.

So it's cut off a lot of the resupply to the Russian army. And the Russian army's in piss poor shape anyway. Here about, I don't know, it's probably been two weeks ago now, when that offensive took off, I thought this was a really amazing statistic. The Russians retreated so fast out of parts of the territory, that they occupied, that the Ukrainians, they just left tanks, trucks, ammo, artillery, like they took off running. They couldn't get their stuff out fast enough. And what's interesting

about that is the Ukrainians captured more military equipment than what the rest of the world has given them since the beginning of the war. And what's significant about that is it's all stuff that they know how to use. So when you think about it, everything that America or Europe has given them, they have never used any of that equipment. So there's a learning curve. They have to learn how to use all that,

whether it be artillery, whether it be Stinger missiles, whether it be javelins, whatever it is. But when you stumble upon a T-72 Russian tank, that's like getting in your 7820 because it's exactly what you got. And so all that equipment that they've gotten, that they've liberated from the Russians, they know how to use all that.

So it's just like, it's just like doubling up on what you already have. And so it has like a steamrolling effect because they just keep getting more stuff. And the Russians keep pushing the Russians back. They keep pushing them back and it's getting crazy. Russians are getting their ass kicked. That's what it sounds like pretty much. I have one thing to say about your market update. What's that I have to throw in about Bitcoin.

And I was on my phone looking at it. That's why I've been quiet and didn't chime in because I had to find the stat and make sure I was right. Yep. So I saw something that Bitcoin's dropped to 60%, drop 60% since it's been at its high, but 65% of Bitcoin holders, or 65 of, yeah, people that have bought Bitcoin have held.

it. So the people who have bought it, 65% of them held it. So it tells you that a lot of people were pumping and dumping it, but there's 65% of people that are just holding it right now. Yeah. And another statistic that goes right along with that, and I don't know what that percentage is, but it's extremely high. Of the amount of Bitcoin that's been mined that has traded hands, the vast... majority of it is off exchanges. The vast majority of it is in cold storage or off of an exchange, in other words, where somebody has it in a in a treasurer or something like that. So that tells you that they're not planning on selling. Yeah, I think there's a lot of people that are long term

thinking about Bitcoin and that's a you know, it's really easy to climb on board and say it's going to die. It's never going to be the future. It's not going to be anything. And Bitcoin's, you know, terrible. When everyone's saying that, it's really easy to hop on that train. But it makes you feel, when I saw that stat, it made me feel, you know, encouraged because it's all doom and gloom right now. But 65% of people are holding it that have bought it. So that's encouraging to hear. Yeah. And I think that as, and some people might say, well, what is that 35% of people sold it. Yeah.

So that's scary. But it's over 50% of people are holding it. Yeah. I mean, there's always going to be people that are pumping and dumping and and trade in left and right like it's going out of style, but it's over 50% of people are holding it. Yeah. No.

I think that's positive number and positive encouragement for Bitcoin anyway. Well, I think the more, I honestly think the more uncertainty, exactly what we're talking about today, probably bodes well for Bitcoin in the fact that its level of stability within the greater financial markets is probably only going to increase, is my gut feeling. Yeah, because its whole deal is against inflation. They can't print more Bitcoin. So that is, when that's still a problem and that's going on, that gets more people to transfer their currency over to Bitcoin.

Yeah. And I think the next bull run is coming. It's just when it happens. Because I think a lot of people forget Bitcoin went on a bull run and then it dropped and then it went on another bull run. And now it's dropped a little bit. But it's not dropped to the extent that it dropped the first time it went on a bull run. Right. We're still, you know, we're higher than we were when the first drop happened.

So now this is not fair. financial advice, but I just thought that was positive. I know there's a lot of Bitcoin haters and people that if you like Bitcoin or you're for Bitcoin, people will hate on you. But I just thought that was a positive stat. So sorry to burst the, kind of get us off track there. I just had to make sure that was right. And I looked at the stat. And I just wasn't quick enough at it because I got fat fingers. So anyway, no, that's fine because I mean, in the end, this all kind of ties together because you know we were talking about the details of what's going on

over Ukraine and the the big theme is that Russia's not doing well they instituted a draft basically a draft they said mobilization but a draft and 300,000 300,000 and people are leaving every flight to any country other than Russia is booked

I mean booked, every bus is full. As many people that can get out that are of the age that are going to be drafted, they're getting the hell out if they can. Your average draftee, they're getting about 10 days worth of training. If they are a former, if they are a former military person, in other words, if they at one point were in the military, which I think that's about everybody because isn't, I think every, I think every male

has to serve a certain amount of time in the military in Russia. I think, I don't know if it's still that way or not, but I feel like it is. So that's basically everybody that they call back. They're getting like 10 days of training and they're sending them to the front. And it's not good.

They're poorly led. Well, they're broke and poorly led. Poorly fed. And poorly fed. And nobody on the world, world stage is really working with them besides China because China, China don't have any fucking ethics. Yeah. Because everyone else has got sanctions on them. So they're just in a really

bad position. They're in a bad position. And I think the world, I don't think anybody realized at the beginning of this how poor a shape rushes equivalent of the United States military industrial complex is. In other words, you know, here, the relationship between your large military contractors,

Boeing, McDonald-Douglas, you name it, whoever, it's a pretty strong bond and the ability to ramp up production on any given military system, whether it be, well, for example,

javelin missiles. So one of the big things that I thought was interesting is when this war started and they started shipping javelins to Ukraine, we're basically out of javelins because we... Shipped the mold. We only used them for training and we had a stockpile. Somebody decided, okay, well, we should have a stockpile of like this many. And, you know, if it looked like we were going to get into a tussle with somebody, then we'd start making some more, but we haven't really tussled with too many people of any size. Well, we started shipping them over there, and I mean, they were using them like hotcakes, and the production of javelins was nowhere near what...

Where it is today now? Where we're sending them. But we have the ability, I mean, they can ramp them up a lot quicker. It's still not near as quick as what they'd like, and there was a story about it, about, you know, there's a possibility that, you know, we could run out of javelins. They're being made and that's speeding up and all that. Russia. Probably any other country in the entire world.

If you're going to say that, I mean, we're saying Russia specifically, but I mean, what other country can ramp up production that fast? So, javelin missiles. Nobody. Nobody. Yeah. So continue. So that's a good thing and a bad thing because we've talked some about the incestuous relationship

between government and military contractors and how that's probably affected, you know, some of the things that we've gotten into that we shouldn't have. But in Russia, an example that I saw was like an artillery shell. If you build an artillery shell, it has about a 20-year lifespan before it starts getting a little sketchy. And they're firing off,

they've burned through like a hell of a lot of their stockpile of artillery shells. And they don't have any mechanism for making them at any scale because after the fall of the Soviet Union, their military manufacturing just went to shit. And there's some people that have speculated that these ammo dumps, that possibly some of these ammo dumps

that have blown up, like in Belgrade or Belarus or wherever the hell they are, that they actually weren't Ukrainian commandos. They were shells that were basically unstable and they just started to burn off and they blew up and it caused a change react. Oh, cow. And nobody will ever know if that's the case, but that's one of the theories. So long story short, they're in a hell of a shape.

They're short on everything. They're poorly led. They're trying to fight their kind of war against a new kind of tactic, basically. Well, and it's a proxy war. They're getting help from Ukraine's getting help from everybody. Yeah. So you are fighting Ukraine, but you're kind of fighting everybody. at the same time because you're getting all of our technology,

all our military production and technology. I mean, not all of it, but you're getting a lot of it. Yeah. And let's be honest, if you have any military friends and they've talked to you a little bit about anything, they, you could, I've heard from my friends and they don't tell me anything classified, but if they're in the military, they can tell you a little bit.

But pretty much, I've been told that anytime you see, like, North Korea come out with something, and CNN or Fox News blows it up and it's a huge story or China. About some new technology. Two new, new warhead, new missile, you know,

whatever. And they're showing that to us as American citizens. And everybody starts freaking the fuck out. Like, oh God, they got this new technology. We've had that shit for like three to five years. But we just don't release that shit to the American people because we're,

we are, we are adapting new stuff coming out with new stuff and nobody knows. and we're ahead of the curve. So, I mean, Ukraine is, Ukraine is literally running Russia into the coals and Russia has nothing to really do besides, like they can't,

I don't feel like they can do anything to fight this war on the ground. They have to think up other strategies, which they've been trying to do, but we're going to get in a little bit of that on how that's not really working out either. So it's not looking good for Russia. No, it's not.

It's really not. think the rate of the decline of the Russian military since the offensive has just really baffled like a lot of people are just genuinely surprised would be an understatement at how how poorly they're faring but here last Friday Russia annexed into Russia part of the occupied territory that they had in Ukraine they held a an election, a fake election, basically, and they got the results and said that the overwhelming majority of people living in this occupied territory, they voted to become part of the Russian Federation. And they did that so that Putin could say that if the Ukrainians keep advancing

into this territory that the Russians have held, that is the same as them attacking Russia itself. And so it was just, and the idea that is that it, it gives him the cover that he could say, while Ukraine attacked us, invaded us. So it puts him, basically gives him another level of cover to say, if I want to throw nukes at it, I can throw nukes at it because they, they have invaded the Russian Federation, the Russian territory, even though that's not true, even though this election was a hoax and that's very dangerous rhetoric to have and the other thing that's happened that I think really escalates everything is the Nord Stream pipeline that was damaged in the Baltic Sea somebody nobody seems to know who whether that be whether that be the Russians

whether that be the Americans, whether that be somebody else. It's one of the two there. It really is because, from what I understand, what I've read, the level of difficulty that it would take to do it at the depth that they were at, at the depth of where this was, there's very few countries in the world that could put together a military demolition, team that could do that. This isn't some random terrorist act. This is, and so you're like, well, why would Russia do it? And we already, we just sat here and talked about how Russia's poorly

trained, poorly fed, don't have very good technology. Poor, you know, it means, so who else would do it? Yeah, and people are like, well, why would the Americans do it? And I don't have a good answer, but I can tell you this. So as the, Russia turned off the natural. gas that was that was flowing to Europe through that pipe. And we talked about that on our latest, our last barn talk hot topics. And we talked about how that's going to affect fertilizer prices. And, you know, what we do. And, you know, it was kind of on the, it was a kind of a maybe if they'd ever turn that back on. But now that it's blown up, they couldn't if they wanted to. Right. They couldn't turn it back on. So it's, so next year for sure, fertilizer prices are going

to be skyrocketed, unless they can fix this pipeline and get it back up. running. Or find a different way to route all the natural gas. But it's going to be difficult. Yeah. But not looking likely. I think that if you ask like why would anybody do this or United States. I think the reason that somebody would do it is if you had an interest in making sure that there was no way that a negotiated peace could come out of the Ukraine deal where part of the territory that the Russians have captured, you know, you would stop hostilities and somehow you would broker a deal between the Ukrainians and the Russians. Well, part of that negotiation would absolutely be the flow of energy back to Europe. And that's off the table because they couldn't make it flow if they wanted to. So you've just eliminated another off-ramp to help Russia. Use this situation.

And so really what you've done is escalated. And I think that we are now to the point where... Maybe we're making so much money off the military industrial complex feeding it to Ukraine that they said, yeah, let's blow that fucker up. Could be a possibility. I mean, anything's possible. It's hard to say. But I think you are now, I think there is a confidence within NATO and within the United States,

and I would say even within Ukraine, that I think it's gone beyond the idea that they could push, they could reach a stalemate with Russia to where Russia would finally do like they did in Afghanistan and they would just give up and go home. I think it's taken a turn to where now Ukraine wants to utterly decimate the Russian forces that are within its border. And I think that's why you see that they're pushing so hard so fast. And I think NATO and the United States, they truly are fighting a proxy war there, and they're going to get all the licks in that they can. Well, and they're going to make as much money as they can. So the fall out of that is that after World War II, the United States really brokered a deal

with pretty much the whole world that would, that they could bargain with, that basically said, okay, we will be the world's police chief. We're going to patrol the seas. You're not going to need a Navy. We are going to make it possible that you can manufacture whatever you want to manufacture, what you're good at, and you can trade anywhere around the world,

and we will protect your shipping, we will protect the trade routes, we will make sure that you can trade with whoever you want to trade with, and we'll do it for free. All we ask is that you don't back the Russians. And then it became, you don't back the Russians and you don't back the Chinese. And so there was all this interdependency. And then on top of that, when the Soviet Union collapsed

and the states like Poland and Yugoslavia and Ukraine and, you know, I don't know, Kazakhstan or whoever, when those states started to break free, countries, when those countries started to break free, there was this idea that we were going to trade with them and we were going to build this interdependency. And then Russia got to the point where all they had was, all they had was natural resources. They had oil, they had coal, they had natural gas. And they became, the only way they were going to pay their bill, was through export. And the idea was the Germans who, how many wars have the Germans fought with the Russians, and they're always terrible, they're always bloody, and they're always just

a disaster. I think they came up with the idea that we're going to trade with the Russians, and we're going to tie our economies together, and it is a way that we're going to build this relationship that we'll never have another world war. Another world war. Okay, well, two weeks ago, the Germans nationalized the energy production interests

that were within their borders that were owned by the Russian energy companies. In other words, basically they just took them and they said,

yeah, we're just taking these for ourselves because we're, and they kicked the Russians out. I mean, they kicked the Germans out. No, Germany kicked the Russians out. There were Russian-owned energy plants within Germany.

And Germany went and took them. They just nationalized them. They took them over and said, these are ours now, get the hell out. So that tells you that that relationship is done. And so that is just another sign that this unraveling is starting to happen. And what you're going to see is, More and more and more of these countries that had trading partners that were somewhat sketch, you might say,

those are going to fall apart. And in the process of that, there's going to be winners and there's going to be losers. And the United States is not, they're not going to run around and play policemen on all this. They're to the point where I think they're going to let it play out. and you're going to see it in places like, you're going to see it in places like Europe where the United States probably will step in to help with the energy

because Europe is a key allies. That natural gas pipeline's fucked, so we got to step in. But the other side of it is, if you're Cuba or you're Venezuela or you're Iran, you're looking around and you've, you've hitched your wax. into Russia. Russia has been your, if you're Syria, I'll tell you what the first, I'll tell you the first

domino to fall on this deal. For a long time, the Israelis have wanted to go into Syria and basically clean house because a lot of the terrorists that, you know, are launching missiles into Tel Aviv are trained and equipped and funded from Syria. And the United States has kind of put their hands on that deal and said, no, no, no, no, don't, let's not do that. We don't want to get, we don't want to get this going. But I think now with Russia not being able to step in to help prop up the Syrian government, I think the next time that the Israelis say, we're going in there, I think the United States is just going to be like, try it. Have fun kids. You know, whatever. And Iran is in the same boat. I think Iran is going to get a lot more easy to deal with. And I think this whole nuclear deal

that they've been trying to pull off for the last decade, I think they may rethink that because there's nobody backing them up. And not even the Chinese have that much interest in dealing with Iran. But those are the kind of deals where there's just an unwinding that's going on. And and you're also seeing it with more manufacturing coming back to the United States. Part of that is incentivized by the federal government. Part of that's just out of necessity. These companies are starting to think, well, holy shit, I may not be able to get what I need from Ukraine or Russia.

Or Russia or wherever. So it's going to be really interesting to see how that all plays out. It sounds like it's going to be fairly positive for Americans in the United States economy and definitely U.S. agriculture. I know input costs next year are going to be probably insane. But as far as the markets go, the world stage, there's going to be a demand for commodities. And if there's less supply in Russia and Ukraine because they're going to try to have to get everything sorted out there, there's going to be, we're going to have to supply that. And so the price is going to help us out a lot there. It's exactly what you said. I mean, I think a lot of people are bringing manufacturing back to the United States,

which is phenomenal. And I think, yeah, like you said, as far as countries that want to do some BS, America's going to be able to step in and say, no, no, no, you got no one backing you anymore. So try it, mofo. But do you think that Putin is crazy enough to, when his back is up against the wall and he feels like, I mean, essentially it's, it's looking like the empire is going to fall. Russian's going to fall the way things are looking now. Everyone that they're partnered with is probably going to shit their pants and say, well,

they don't have our back really anymore. Germany's kicked them out. Ukraine keeps pushing them back. Do you think Putin's crazy enough to say, fuck it. If I can't win, no one's going to win. Let's launch these nukes and let's play it. out because he seems like he's crazy enough but he talks a big game but would he actually do it i know he's from he's a former so soviet union per guy he's a former uh special ops spak ops uh soviet gb

kgb yeah yeah i mean he's a smart guy um there's no doubt about that you would think he would be smart enough it is such a wild card do you think he's a smart guy like because all the shit that's happening to him, you'd say he's not a smart guy. But do you feel like that was just the hand he was dealt when he took over the country? Let's talk about that. Because one thing we didn't talk about was the conversation you and I had about the government in Ukraine and the involvement that the U.S. had in where we are today. I listened to a podcast here a week ago, and it was really interesting because it was a perspective that I hadn't heard. And what they were talking about was that it hasn't been that long ago.

Basically, during the Obama administration, the government in Ukraine, so Ukraine has not been united since the time that it broke away from Russia. It's been very fragmented. So there's a lot of different ethnic groups, a lot of different political groups, within that country. And as you would expect, the east, where a lot of that fighting is today, there was an awful lot of pro-Russian people there that were basically Russians. They were basically Russians that just happened to be living in eastern Ukraine. And then the West was obviously probably more pro-European. Well, the country, the government was kind of in chaos. And

at one point it really looked like the government was going to head the way that say Belarus has where it was going to be a pro-Russian government and Ukraine basically would just be a puppet state of Russia. Well, the Obama State Department and this started with the last of the Bush's. I mean, it was headed that direction when George Bush was in office. But during under Obama it looked like it was more headed that way and obviously the CIA the state department they did not want that to happen and so they started actively working to undermine that government in Ukraine in Ukraine and let's not forget that while this was happening Joe Biden was vice president and he was the point man on the Ukrainian issue pretty much and as we

messed with it as the CIA and the State Department pumped money in for rivals and undermined what was going on and just did what they do and I'm not I'm not I'm not trying to make it better or worse than what it was I mean it basically just was what it was

the U.S. didn't want that so they were using whatever means they could to manipulate how that government formed or kept going. Well, one of the biggest oil companies within Ukraine, they were pro-Russian, they were backed

by the Russian government, they had ties to the Russian government, and they saw what was happening, and they started throwing money. How do you think that Joe Biden's boy ended up on the board of their energy company? Well, it was because they saw that the team that they were rooting for

was going to lose. Was going to lose, and they were like, shit, we better get on the right side of this or we're going to be ass out. So they started throwing money towards the United States, towards the Bidens. And I mean, it's to the point now. I mean, we, I don't even care. I mean, it is what it is. But you can't say that Joe Biden's family didn't prosper off of that Ukrainian oil deal when his son was sitting on the board. Because that guy, the only thing he's qualified for is sniffing coke off a stripper's ass. That's pretty much the deal. I mean, you're right. Okay, so that's happening.

So I'm kind of a, I don't know shit about what you, this is all kind of news to me because I wasn't ever taught this. I never learned about this really. So I appreciate what you're saying. But did it flip to be more of a European country? Like right now, is it, like, did it work? Did it, it was still going on? Well, so at the point when we went in there and started spending all that money,

it was probably what, 70% more Russian, 60% Russian? I think it was kind of a coin toss. Like we were kind of like, oh shit, if we don't get this under control, they're going to have this in less than a decade. Because I would say Ukraine today under Zelensky is the most united that it's been. And that's why people were so surprised that they did as well as they did because they did not expect the country to come together to fight the Russians.

because it had been so fragmented, and the government, the government that is in there today was Zelensky, they are not pure as the wind-driven snow at all. I mean, the government of Ukraine and the country itself, very corrupt, because it's like Russia's. Everybody's getting a payoff at every level. I mean, that's the model.

That was modeled, that was what was modeled to them. So you can't really expect that they just were just going to wake up become a democracy. There's just too many, too much old baggage that was going along with it. But, so my point of that is, and this is what got me,

the guy that was telling this story said, if you're in Putin's shoes, it would be the equivalent of if Canada was in chaos, and Russia went into Canada, the KGB and their state department, and they finessed it to basically flip that government

pro-Russian. The United States would lose their shit, and they would be like, we're gonna go in there and fucking clean house. Well, that's exactly what Russia's doing right now. So, yeah, fast forward. So that happened, that happened. And then we get Trump.

And Trump basically goes to him and says, this is bullshit, I know what you did. And he knew that nobody in the United States was going to investigate the Bidens. And he wanted right or wrong, you know, probably, probably sketchy on his part, whether he should have even been involved. I'm sure, I'm not sure if that violates a law or not, but it's probably not the right thing to do. He puts pressure on the Ukrainians, and he's like, listen, I know that you guys, there's a connection between you and the Bidens, and you need to investigate it.

And if you don't investigate it, I'm not giving you these arms, this arms package that was negotiated during the Obama. He's like, I want you to figure out, basically he wanted to know what happened. What the corruption was. He wanted to, and, you know, that turned into a whole big mess. Okay, so when you ask if Putin,

is really crazy or he's playing the pan that he had. If you're on his, if you're looking at it from his point of view, the United States definitely manipulated that, but the whole European Union did, but for their own reasons in the fact that they did not want, they had just gotten Ukraine out from underneath the iron curtain, and they did not want it going back and be a satellite. So you have these two competing,

philosophies and doctrines and all that. But from Putin's standpoint, this all started a long time ago. This didn't just happen. So when that came up that, you know, he was massive troops on the border and everybody's like, holy shit, you know, is he going to do this? That wheel had been turning for a long time. And I think they finally just decided that if they were ever going to do it, they're going to have to do it now while they still had a chance. and where it goes from here, I don't know. You would like to think that they're smart enough to know that if they were to use a nuclear weapon, it would be the end of...

It would be the end of Russia. It's just whether or not he has a moment where he decides that if it's going to be the end of Russia, it's going to be the end of everything and just go. And, I mean, I don't know. that's a horrible, that's a horrible scenario. And I would, I also think that, you know, it's like most, it's like most things.

There's a hell of a lot that we don't know about. And there's probably a lot of people that are very, very bad people that are keeping much closer ties on what's going on than what we are, that a lot could be done if we thought it was going to go that way. But it's a powder keg. I mean, it really is. And it's going to be a cold winter in Europe, no doubt about it. And those people are going to suffer. And short term, I think short term, we're going to suffer here because to come all the way back to what we were talking about with commodity prices. Yeah, so Russia, they're not getting... any of their energy to Europe anymore, right? Right. So they're taking it and giving it to China,

because China's buying it for a discount, right? Isn't it like 20 or 30 percent? Because China just looks at it and all they see is opportunity to get energy from this place that everyone else doesn't want anything to do with. And they've got a shared interest in that neither one of them wants to see the United States prosper. Right. I mean, we have a, an incessuous relationship with China and the fact that we like buying cheap shit from them. We pretty much made them a superpower, but at the same time we don't want them to defrone us. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Russia, the biggest problem with that whole deal is yes, they can sell oil, they can sell natural gas, they can sell coal to China. The problem is their infrastructure to the

western part, or I'm sorry to the, I don't know, eastern part of Russia. I don't know how that works when you get over there. Basically, the far eastern part of Russia, there's no infrastructure to get the oil. All their infrastructure has been built to bring energy from Russia to Europe and from Russia to the Mediterranean. Very little money has been spent to get. To get. get any energy to China. Energy from the West, from the European side, to China.

So there's a limit to how much they can even really export to the Chinese, but right now all, now what they will do is they'll export to Turkey or somebody like that, and then go from there to China. But there was a conference in Kazakhstan, like two weeks ago

and Putin was there and the she is the president of Russia or the China he was there and they met and it was very interesting because basically Russia

was kind of treated like crap and well China knows they got them by the balls they do. They truly. They truly. do. And it was not basically, Putin was kissing the Chinese boots

is what it came down to. And so they're selling their shit for 30% discount, right? Yeah, so as an example, one of the examples I saw is like if the Russians are buying coal from China, the price that they're getting for it is the price is negotiated You mean if China's buying it from Russia? Yeah, China's buying it from Russia and the price is

delivered to China and the Russians are paying the freight. Yeah. So it's at a discount and they're paying the freight to get it there. So, but how this all plays out with us in your backyard is this is where you have to wonder whether the Federal Reserve is really doing the right thing or not when it comes to interest rates because they are so scared of inflation, and we're raising these interest rates. The most recent one was three quarters of a percent, and they basically said that they're going like scorched earth. If they have to raise it three quarters of a percent again, they will,

and they're going to do it until they get it under control. But I just have to think, when I talk to regular people, and I talk to people, you know, all over the country, a lot of the prices that we see and the inflation that we're getting is not just because, they printed a shitload of money, but because of what's going on. Commodity prices, transportation, and lack of people to work. It's, it's, or not infrastructure, it's, it's, supply chain. And I'm so, I mean, I'm a little afraid that what's happening is this Fed is going to get this wrong.

And we're going to go from, um, they're going to. to raise interest rates to our detriment. Yes. Without realizing that it's not because they print a lot of money. And that has a little bit to do with it. Oh, no, it absolutely does. But on time, it's like you're mixing a really shitty cocktail. You got that. They printed all this money. What's happened on the world stage? Supply chain. Lack of labor. It's all just this really shitty cocktail and it's all mixed together. But I don't, you don't believe that the printing of the money is our biggest, should be our biggest word. right now with the inflation that we're seeing because of all the other reasons outweigh the printing

of the money well so draining the liquidity out of the market which when you raise in when you raise interest rates what you're doing is you're raising the cost of money which in turn drives money out of certain markets because people are like i can't get i can't afford this right i can't get the return i want i'm not i'm going to take my money out of it can't afford to do this business because the interest is too high on my loan i can't afford to buy this rental prior because the interest is too high on my loan it's just not going to pencil. It slows things down. Slows the growth. My problem with it is, is if the only problem that we had was too much money, because we've

printed all the money, which we do have, there is too much money in the system, but we have all these other issues that are adding to that inflation, and you're not going to cure it by raising interest rates. In fact, you could swing it so fast because you could go from an economy that's slowing to an economy that's in an absolute free fall and not be able to reverse your course, which I think that, I think the dyes already cast on that. I think that the government doesn't do anything well and manage an economy is, they're not going to do it. Well, this administration sure as fuck doesn't do a good job at it. So, I feel like they're going to keep raising interest rates and we're going to get into a hell of mind.

So I think no matter what business you're in, long term for agriculture, I think the future is very bright. I think there's going to be great opportunity. The short term, your capital costs, your input costs are all going to be up. Really, really high. And I think it's going to be the next two years,

I think, are going to be really, really tough. Yeah, I was just going to ask, what do you think next two to three? years, next three to five years, how long you, because yeah, it's just the short term window we're going to be in a hard time no matter what you're doing, whatever you're in. But I think when stuff kind of gets figured out and we're out of this downturn, it's going to be a really prosperous next five to ten years. I think the next decade is going to be incredibly prosperous for agriculture. I think the next two to three years are going to be very challenging. And I think

one, there's going to be one year in there, I don't know if it's going to be the fall of 23 or not. It'll either be, it'll either be 23's crop or 24's crop where you're going to get freaking hit, where you have had really high input costs, and then because of the dollar being so expensive and the world in turmoil, exports are going to be shit,

and we're not going to be able to absorb this crop that we've raised. And so you're going to have really high input costs and then you're going to have really low market prices going into that fall when you harvest that crop. I think that's going to be... But I'm confused on that. Because you're saying, what about the exports? Because I thought that since the supply

or the demand was going to be so high because Russia and Ukraine and everybody in the world still figuring their shit out that we're going to have to... We're as the United States going to have to supply. a lot of that so the price would be good. Except everybody wants to get paid and

if there's enough turmoil and economic downturn there's going to be a lot of places that they aren't going to have the money to buy because the U.S. dollar is going to be so strong it's... So as an American, you want

this is kind of selfish. I'm not saying I want other countries to be in a downfall but if you're looking at it from our economic growth, You want countries to struggle a little bit, but not go so far down that they can't afford to buy our shit because then you can't export anything. Well, and it's like, it's good to have a, so the dollar, the dollar is the, is the reserve currency of the world. And right now you can see what's happening. There's basically, there basically is not a, there's no currency trade at all because the dollar just keeps going up.

Because so many other countries are putting their money into dollars. Yeah. because people, investors from other countries are exchanging their currency for dollars because when there's trouble, the dollar is the safest bet, and that's where they're going. But the problem is, in doing that, you're sucking the liquidity out of the market when it comes to the currency trade with everything else. And like you're seeing it this week with the British pound. The British pound is dropping like a rock. And people, what that is, that's basically a vote on the confidence they have in the British government.

And what that's telling you is they don't have very much confidence because people are selling the pound and buying the dollar. But as that pound gets weaker, American goods become more expensive. And you're seeing that all over the world. So that hurts exports

because you can't buy as many bushels of corn. You can't buy as many bushels of beans. You're talking as if you're in another country's shoes. And so if you're going to buy soybeans right now, that's the soybean market's getting hit a little bit because we've got more ending stocks than what we thought but then the dollar is getting strong and it looks like south america is going to have a decent crop and because the dollar is so strong you can buy more soybeans from south you can buy soybeans from south america cheaper you can buy them from america so that

means that that crop is probably going to get used up first so if they can buy it from them they're going to buy it from them first before they buy it from us now then some of that as that as they buy that more our crop will get used for something else like it'll get crushed and fed to pigs or whatever but it it's generally not great for exports if you have an expensive dollar a cheap dollar is good for exports anyway I think that we're just there's going to be a there's going to be one year in there definitely that it's going to be really that it's going to be really, really tight. So you think that's probably 24, or do you think that'll happen next year? Do you think next year we're going to have exports won't be so expensive, but the price,

the demand across the world stage is going to be high? I think the demand's going to be high. And exports aren't going to be super high yet. Right. Because- But in 24, you think exports are going to be too high, so therefore our price is going to go down. And it's like we talked, the other thing that will change is today, today we, we, grow corn and soybeans here in the Midwest and wheat is grown on the fringe. Wheat is grown out west in the more area where you can't grow corn and soybeans. If the crop, if the production of wheat worldwide goes down, the wheat price goes up, and if the corn and bean price is lower here, you're going to see more and more farmers that hasn't grown wheat in 20 years,

look at wheat and say, well, I'm not growing corn and soybeans, I'm going to grow wheat. And so it's going to shift the mix of crops that we build or that we grow. And so you may see the U.S. become a big player in the wheat market bigger than we've been, and we may become a smaller export of corn and soybeans. somehow because markets the thing about it is the markets they got a pencil for everybody yeah it's it's uh it figures itself out and so that's where you know what the corn price the demand will find its its market basically or the market will find the demand however you want to say it so at the end of the day i mean we don't really know anything could happen both on the world stage and here at home

and I don't know if we're in for a soft landing, whether we're close to the bottom when it comes to the stock market, whether we're on a housing bubble. I don't know, but I know that it's probably a good time to get your house in order. If you have it, I mean, that's kind of been a theme for quite a while. People talking about you need to get your credit cards paid off. You need to get your car.

In a recession, cash is king. Cash is 100%. Because when interest is expensive, when money's not cheap anymore and it's expensive, when I say that, I mean interest, it's good to have cash. Because you can, when interest is high and you got more money to put on a down payment of whatever you're doing, you know, maybe you can afford that loan your mortgage every month rather than if you tried putting the bare minimum 20% down, you know, your payment, your mortgage every month is going to be high.

hire. Yeah. And there's, it just helps to have money on hand. Yeah, 100% because it's nice to have money to just make the deal in cash. Right. Because, well, the more money you put down on a deal when an interest is high, the less you're going to have to spend on, on interest. Right. So. And I don't you feel like there's a whole generation of people out there that I'm that generation. Yeah, that have never had a time where money wasn't dirt cheap. Right. And there's a whole generation of farmers out there that, I mean, I grew up through, I grew up through the 80s, but as far as me being the one making the decisions, the entire time that I've been farming, money's been dirt cheap. I mean, you want to extend your operating loan? Extend it because it's not costing you anything. And I still think it is pretty cheap. I mean, compared to those times, it's cheap still. So if you're going to buy assets, I'd buy them probably sooner rather than later because it's going to hit a point where it's going to be pretty darn hard to buy some assets.

Pay your liabilities off. Pay your car off. Pay the house you live in off if you can. Pay that ATV off, that Polaris razor off. You know, I know those things are fun as hell. And,

you know, try to buy some assets now while you still can because we're going to head into the times where, like hell, I remember talking to somebody and he's an older gentleman

and he's lived through high interest rates. And I think he said that at one point it was like freaking 12 or 14% interest. I cannot imagine that. So I haven't lived through that. So I'm going to do my best to try to buy assets now and then use my cash that we create from assets to try to pay off debt and set ourselves up nicely

for when we're out of this downturn and we come back up and we start to prosper again as a nation or whatever you want to say. then money's cheap again, you can kind of go on the offense again. I think by the end of the year, you could easily be looking at interest rates. They'll be 4%. They could be

4 and a quarter maybe. I don't know. This shouldn't scare you. I mean, we're pretty good. At the end of the day, be glad that you live in America. You're not in Ukraine. You're not in Russia.

You're not in China. I mean, we have it pretty good here. You might not be able to buy all the family. fancy shit that you want to buy because times might get a little hard. But the best thing that you can do truly is get your house in order and try to make more money because that's only going to help you in hard times. It's just try to make more money because stuff's going to be more expensive and just make sure your house is in order because that's all you can do. And it's going to play out

how it plays out. That reminded me of a story during one of the times when the hog building business, when the hog business was in bad shape in 2010. We weren't selling. Nobody was building buildings. Everybody was just trying to hold their money together. And all the salesmen at company I worked for, we all drove half-ton Chevy Silver Auto pickups, you know. And those weren't exactly, you know, good on gas and all that.

And all our crew trucks were F-350s and, you know, burned a lot of diesel and all that. And it was, the spring that year was pretty bad as far as we didn't have crap sold for sheds. And, you know, we knew what our overhead was. And we had to get to a point or else it was going to get pretty tight. And we were having a meeting. And one of the guys that worked there that was basically the owner's right hand, man, he had the proposal, he had the proposal that all the salesmen should,

we should trade the trucks and get like impalas. they got better gas mileage. And the owner of the company, all at once, he just slams his fist down on the table, and he goes, that's it. He goes, that is it. He goes, I do not want to talk any more about lack, and I don't want to talk about buying some blankety blank car. He goes, you know what we need to do? We need to go out and sell some shit, because if we just sell some shit, we won't have to worry about how much gas we're burning or what the mileage is. He goes, forget about cut and cost. He goes, I'm not interested in cut and cost. I'm interested in expanding our gross sales. He goes, sales drives everything. We just need to make more money.

And I always, I've never forgotten that because there's a lot of, you know, self-help books about budgeting and managing your money. And that's all good stuff because we all, we all have to do, you know. You've got to be conscious at that. Right. But at the same time. But at the end of the day, the easiest way, you will never, you will never budget your way to success.

Yeah. To financial freedom. Massive financial freedom. Because you just can't, the number that matters the most is the top number. You can cut and cut and cut. And the number at the bottom is never going to be bigger. than the one you started with the top. So the only way to get where you want to go

is make that number at the top bigger. So, yeah, it's a good time to do that budgeting, cut that stuff, but also it's a good time to be thinking, you know, how can I prosper from the opportunities that are going to be out there? Because we've said it before, when there's blood in the streets, that's the time to be buying. So there's going to be opportunities.

There's going to be people out there that didn't get their house in order, and there's going to be stuff for sale and it's going to be on sale. Penny's on the dollars. And that's what you got to look for. That's what you got to prepare for. So, yeah, there might be some hard times ahead, but there's also going to be some massive opportunity. And I'd say, you know, if you don't know what that is yet, just try to think about how you can make yourself more valuable as far as what skills can I acquire that make me more valuable as an employee, as a business owner. like just think about the things that are relevant in today's world that if you learn that skill

I'm going to be this much better at X and that's going to make me this more much about more valuable because I think when you're young in the game it's good to invest in you know the SMP 500 and save for retirement but the same time it's really good to invest yourself because you're so young that if you learn a lot of skills that are valuable that just that raises your top that raises your top dollar because you're more valuable to the company you work for. You're more valuable to your own company that you're running, whatever you're doing. So, or your side hustle, if you're doing a job, then you got a side hustle, you learn this new skill, and now you're bringing more money because you got the side hustle, you know, that kind of deal. So I think invest in yourself, get your house in order,

budget, but, you know, be smart about it. Don't over budget and just try to raise that top number. And you should be, should have all your shit figured out. Nothing else is going to go wrong. you're just going to be good and everything's going to be great. Well, speaking of raising that top number, I think after an absence of, I don't know how many weeks, we're going to raise a glass because we've had many people inquire whether or not bourbon talk is going to be part of barn talk. So today, it's back and we have whistle pig.

Whistle pig and what is it? Farm stock, right? Oh, okay, I'm going to show. So this is Whistle Pig Farmstock Rye. And, you know, it'd be a little better if it was Whistler's Pig, farmstock rye, but we couldn't get that, and I don't think they're going to rebrand it. But I like the Whistle Pig.

I've got a bottle of 12-year that is pretty fine, and this is actually a blend. So the age statement on it is, I think that it is 17, percent 10 year 37 percent six year and 50 percent 52 percent three year so they they kind of put together a blend and it's a rye whiskey so we're going to try it and see see if we can give it the blessing or not you remember that toast that you said the other night about uh woodships and friendships or i can't remember about just cheers to american prosperity That is a great.

Cheers to that shit. That is not bad. It's not. I really, I'll just say, I'm not a good plain whiskey drinker. I can drink whiskey straight, but I got to have either an ice cube or a little bit of water in that. That was like a straight shot, but that was rather smooth. Yeah, that's what I thought. To be honest with you.

I think that might be the rye. I don't have a lot of experience with rye, but, um, the only thing I'll say about that is it was very smooth so it definitely it just didn't have a crazy burn I didn't think no but it doesn't have an awful lot of flavor eating yeah I feel like it I mean that was pretty damn good honestly it was smooth I definitely sip on it but it didn't have like a real you know I didn't taste like caramel or you think that'd be a good old-fashioned whiskey no no no I don't because it isn't really sweet.

Now, it depends on what you're into because, like, I like, for an old fashion, I like makers. I make a lot of times I'll make an old fashion with makers because it's kind of sweet. Four roses, four roses is excellent in my mind. I like making old fashions with that.

But that, I don't know. I mean, be fine, but just not, it's just not as sweet. But I think that would actually be pretty good just to sip on. So anyway, we'll be back. Shout out to whistle pig. I mean, we don't have a sponsorship with them. It would make kind of sense, though.

We are pig farmers. I think we should probably talk to the whistle pig. We've got to get a pig in here just to sit down and just start whistling them up the staircase. We could get a whistler pig with a whistle pig t-shirt on him. Yep. Just have to sit up here. Yep. Be a barn pig.

Barn pig. Yeah, Whistler, I don't know. We could do a lot of things with that. So reach out to the Whistlepig people and make them on board. I mean, they're just in Vermont. It's just a short road trip. Yeah, just short, a little road trip. But anyway, yeah, so we're going to wrap it up, guys.

I hope this brought some value to you. Hope this maybe taught you a new perspective, showed you what we were kind of thinking and maybe you could relate to it on what you were thinking about the whole world, geopolitical, what's happening, kind of deal. but if you got any value from the show, share it out with your friends, family coworkers, you guys know the deal.

It helps us out a lot. We really appreciate it. And if you guys have any questions at all, submit them at barn talk show at gmail.com. That is where we will get your questions and then we will answer them on our next episode where it's going to be a barn talk Q&A. So we appreciate every one of you guys

that has been listening or watching and we'll see you back here again next week.