Boring History for Sleep - 10 Deadliest Dictatorships in History ☠️👑 | Boring History for Sleep
Episode Date: August 30, 2026Throughout history, dictators have risen to power by promising order, strength, or a better future — only to build regimes founded on fear, repression, and absolute control. Behind their grand speec...hes and displays of power were political purges, forced labor, censorship, imprisonment, mass violence, and wars that devastated entire populations.What happens when one ruler gains almost unlimited power? How did these regimes maintain control over millions of people? And what made some dictatorships among the most destructive political systems in history?A calm journey through ten of history’s deadliest dictatorships, their rise to power, the methods they used to control society, and the lasting scars they left behind.Boring History for Sleep — Soft stories about difficult chapters of history.
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Hey there, night owls.
Tonight we're going somewhere your high school textbook only whispered about.
Picture this, ten men.
Just ten.
And between them, more than 100 million human lives erased.
Most of it in peacetime.
No battlefields required.
Even wilder?
Almost all of them died comfortably in their own bed,
sipping tea, watching the sunset,
never seeing the inside of a courtroom.
Spoiler alert.
The universe is not, in fact, a great moral accountant.
So tonight we're walking through ten regimes.
one by one. From Berlin to Pyongyang, from Baghdad to Harare, painters who became prophets,
sergeants who crowned themselves field marshals, school teachers who turned bread baskets into
wastelands. The blueprints are eerily similar, and that's exactly why this matters.
Hit that like button if you want more deep dives like this one, and drop a comment telling me
where in the world you're watching from and what time it is. Seriously, I love seeing the map of you
all light up across the globe. Now dim those lights,
fluff up that pillow, maybe pour something warm, and let's settle in. Ten stories. Ten lessons in
how absolute power becomes absolute catastrophe. Ready? Let's begin. Our first stop is a country
most people would have called the cradle of European civilization just two decades earlier.
A nation of poets and physicists, of philosophers who shaped Western thought, of composers whose
symphonies still fill concert halls today. Germany in the 1920s was not some forgotten backwater on the
edge of the map. It was the home of Einstein, Bach, Goethe, and yet somehow this nation of
Nobel laureates and chess grandmasters voted itself, with paperwork and ballot boxes and proper
bureaucratic stamps into the hands of a failed landscape painter from Austria. Nobody saw a tank
rolling down the street. Nobody heard the boots of a coup. The thing came in through the front door
holding a copy of the Constitution in one hand, and the Germans, exhausted and humiliated and freezing,
simply stepped aside to let it pass.
To understand how this happened, we have to rewind a little,
back to a railway carriage parked in a forest near Compigny in November 1918.
Inside that carriage, German officials signed an armistice ending the First World War,
and what followed was less a peace treaty than a public humiliation.
The Treaty of Versailles signed the following year,
stripped Germany of about 13% of its territory and roughly 10% of its population.
The army was capped at 100,000 men, which for a country the size of Germany was a bit like telling a grown adult they could only own three forks.
The country lost all its overseas colonies, its merchant fleet, most of its iron and coal production,
and was handed a reparations bill so absurd that economists at the time openly admitted the numbers were never meant to be paid in any normal lifetime.
John Maynard Keynes, the British economist who actually attended the negotiations,
walked out in disgust and wrote a book predicting that this piece would produce another war within a
generation. He was, unfortunately, almost exactly right to the month. Then came the inflation,
which is one of those words that sounds boring until you actually look at the numbers.
In January 1923, one American dollar was worth about 17,000 German marks. By November of that
same year, the same dollar bought you 4.2 trillion marks. People burned banknotes in their stoves
because the paper itself was warmer than what it could buy. Children built kites out of
thousand-mark bills. Workers were paid twice a day so they could rush out at lunchtime and spend
their wages before the price of bread doubled by supper time. Pensioners who had spent their
entire lives saving for retirement watched their savings evaporate over the course of a single
afternoon. Imagine spending 40 years putting money into a coffee can, only to discover that the
can itself was now worth more than its contents. It broke something.
in the German middle class that never really healed. They had played by the rules, worked hard,
saved diligently, and the rules had quietly betrayed them. When the economy stabilized briefly in
the mid-1920s, things almost looked like they might recover. Berlin in those years became one of the
most exciting cities on earth, a sort of glittering capital of nightclubs and art galleries, an experimental
cinema, where everyone seemed to be either dancing or arguing about Freud. But the recovery was built on a
American loans, and when Wall Street collapsed in October 1929, the loans dried up overnight.
By 1932, German unemployment had climbed to roughly six million people, which in a country of
65 million was a catastrophic number. One in three working-age men had no job, no income,
no prospects. The streets filled with veteran selling matches, with families evicted from apartments,
with young men loitering on corners with nothing to do and nowhere to be.
This is the soil in which our man took root.
He had been kicking around the political fringe for over a decade by this point,
a former corporal of the Bavarian army with a striking talent for one specific thing which was talking.
He was not, contrary to what some people imagine, a brilliant strategist or a sophisticated thinker.
His own writings, which he produced during a brief and surprisingly comfortable prison stay in 1924,
are widely considered to be among the most poorly written books ever to achieve global notoriety.
The publisher reportedly had to do extensive editing just to make the sentences hold together,
but put him in front of a microphone and something else happened entirely.
He had a voice that could rise from a quiet, almost hypnotic murmur to a full operatic roar
within the space of a single paragraph, and he had figured out through years of trial and error
in beer halls across Bavaria exactly what frightened, humiliated people wanted to hear.
His message was, when you boil it down, almost embarrassingly simple.
Everything that had gone wrong, every defeat, every empty stomach, every closed factory,
every collapsed bank was the fault of someone else.
Specifically to someone else's, the communists were one, the Jewish population was the other.
Never mind that German Jews had served in the trenches of the First World War
in proportion slightly higher than their share of the population.
That 12,000 of them had died wearing German uniforms that they had won.
iron crosses alongside their Christian neighbours. Facts were not the point. The point was to give a
wounded country a target, and to promise that with enough discipline and enough loyalty, the wounds
could be reversed and the targets removed. His party, which we will simply call the National
Socialists, grew slowly through the 1920s. In the 1998 elections, they won less than 3% of the vote,
which is the kind of number that gets you laughed out of most parliaments. But the depression
changed everything. By July 1932, they had become the largest single party in the Reichstag,
with 37% of the vote, and here we encounter one of the most genuinely uncomfortable truths of the 20th
century, which is that he never won a clean majority in a free election, not once.
The peak vote share his party ever achieved in a competitive election was that 37%, and a competent
coalition of his opponents could have kept him out of power indefinitely. They did not.
They squabbled, they miscalculated, they assumed they could control him,
and on January 30, 30, 1933, the elderly president Paul von Hindenberg signed the paperwork
making him chancellor. The men who placed him in office were almost universally convinced
they had outmaneuvered him. Conservative politicians and aristocratic generals walked out
of the meeting confident they had hired a useful idiot, a barking populist who would draw the crowds
while real grown-ups handled the business of government.
Within six months, most of those men were either dead, in prison,
or quietly rewriting their memoirs to pretend they had never been involved in the first place.
The historian who would later document this period dryly observed
that of all the people in the world, the German conservative establishment
was perhaps the worst suited to the task of containing a demagogue.
They thought they were playing chess.
He was playing a different game entirely with different rules
and a different definition of winning.
The first move came almost immediately.
On the night of February 27, 1933, less than a month after he took office, the Reichstag building,
the seat of German Parliament itself, went up in flames.
A young Dutch communist named Marinus van der Luber was found at the scene and confessed to the crime,
though to this day historians argue about whether he acted alone,
whether the national socialists set it themselves,
or whether the truth is some uncomfortable combination of both.
What is not debated is what happened next. Within 24 hours, the new Chancellor convinced the
aging president to sign an emergency decree suspending most civil liberties across Germany. Freedom of
the press, freedom of assembly, freedom from arbitrary arrest, the secrecy of correspondence,
the inviolability of private homes, all gone with a single signature. The decree was supposed to be
temporary. It remained in force for the next 12 years. By March, with communist deputies either arrested or
hiding, Parliament passed the Enabling Act, which formally handed the Chancellor the power to make
laws without their involvement. The legal architecture of German democracy, built carefully over
decades, was dismantled within roughly eight weeks, and here is the small, dry detail that makes
this whole sequence so distinctive in the broader history of tyranny. They did it with paperwork.
There was no storming of the palace, no firing squads in the streets, no obvious crisis moment
that future historians could point to and say,
here, this is where the line was crossed.
It happened the way a slow leak sinks a boat.
By the time anyone realized the deck was already underwater,
the lifeboats had been quietly removed.
The economic recovery that followed was by some measures genuinely impressive,
and this is something that gets glossed over in popular accounts.
By 1937, German unemployment had effectively vanished, at least on paper.
The Autobahn network was expanding, factories were running, and a kind of fragile pride had returned to the population.
The trick, which was less of a trick than a delayed bill, was that almost the entire recovery was financed by debt and rearmament.
Germany was building itself a war machine on borrowed money, and the only way to ever pay back the loans was to use the war machine,
which is a financial strategy with very few recommendable features.
Meanwhile, the screws on the Jewish population tightened a notcher to time,
The Nuremberg Laws of 1935 stripped them of citizenship, banned marriages and even friendships
between Jews and other Germans, and required them to register their property with the state.
Doctors lost their licenses, lawyers were disbarred, children were expelled from public schools,
park benches were repainted to indicate which citizens were permitted to sit on them.
None of this happened in a single dramatic stroke.
It happened in dozens of small ordinances, each one slightly more humiliating than the
the last, each one giving the Jewish population just enough hope that perhaps this was the final
indignity, that perhaps things would now stabilise. They did not stabilize. On the night of November 9,
1938, that pretense ended. Across Germany and recently annexed Austria, organized mobs
smashed the windows of Jewish-owned shops, burned down synagogues, beat people in the streets,
and dragged tens of thousands of Jewish men off to early concentration camps. The official tally
listed around 100 dead, though modern historians estimate the real figure was several times higher
when you include suicides in the days that followed. The event is remembered by the German word for that
night of broken glass, which I will not write out here, but the name was chosen by the regime itself,
and it captures the strange, almost cheerful brutality of the whole exercise. The German government then,
in a finishing touch of bureaucratic cruelty that would have been comedic if it were not real,
find the Jewish community itself 1 billion marks for the damage caused to their own property.
The insurance payouts that should have gone to victims were confiscated by the state.
There is a small, almost forgotten detail about that night that historians sometimes mention in passing,
and it is worth lingering on for a moment because it tells you something about how the regime tested the limits of acceptable behaviour.
The order to coordinate the violence was issued from Munich by a senior official,
but it was deliberately vague.
Local party leaders were told the police would not interfere with spontaneous expressions of public outrage,
which is the kind of phrasing that, in any normal society, would set off alarm bells in every newsroom in the country.
Instead, the German press, by then almost entirely under state control, printed straightforward reports
describing the violence as a natural reaction by ordinary citizens.
The legal fiction was that nobody had ordered anything.
The blood on the pavement was simply, in the official version, the spontaneous,
voice of the people. This particular trick, the orchestrated event dressed up as a grassroots
movement, would be borrowed and reused by countless regimes in the decades that followed. It remains,
even now, one of the more reliable warning signs that something has gone badly wrong inside a
country. It is worth pausing here, because this is the moment where the rest of the world had perhaps
its clearest opportunity to act and chose not to. The reports of that night made the front pages of
every major newspaper in the democratic world. The American ambassador was recalled. The British press
was thunderous, and then, after roughly two weeks of public outrage, attention drifted elsewhere,
because attention always drifts elsewhere. The leadership in Berlin took careful note. They had crossed
a line, and the world had blinked and moved on. The next line they correctly calculated would be
even easier. By 1939, with the diplomatic appeasement of Munich behind him, and his army secretly
twice the size of what the treaties allowed, he made the move that would define the next six years.
The invasion of Poland on September 1st began a war whose military details we will not dwell on
because they are not really the point of our story tonight. The point is what happened in the
territories that fell under occupation and what happened in the camps. By 1942 in a quiet villa on
the edge of Berlin called Vancey, 15 senior officials sat down for what their internal memos
described as a coordination meeting.
The minutes of that meeting which survived the war by accident because one copy was hidden in a filing cabinet,
document the bureaucratic planning of what was, even by 20th century standards an unprecedented project.
The discussion was conducted in calm professional tones.
They debated logistics.
They referenced quotas.
They sipped coffee.
By the time the war ended in 1945, approximately six million European Jews had been killed.
The total death toll across all categories of victims of this regime.
including Roma, disabled people, Soviet prisoners of war, Polish civilians, political prisoners and others,
ranges in serious historical estimates somewhere between 11 and 17 million people.
Those figures do not include battlefield deaths from the war itself, which add tens of millions more.
The numbers are so large that they stop functioning as numbers.
The mind reaches a saturation point and then simply refuses to process further.
This, by the way, is one of the reasons mass crimes are so often successful in their own grotesquist.
terms. Beyond a certain scale, we cannot even properly mourn. He himself died on April 30, 1945,
in a concrete bunker beneath the ruins of Berlin, with Soviet troops perhaps two streets away.
The official cause was suicide. He was 56 years old. He had been Chancellor for 12 years and
three months. In that span of time, his decisions had reshaped half a continent, killed somewhere
between 30 and 40 million people across all categories combined, and ended the era of European
and global dominance that had defined the previous four centuries. Empires fell because of him.
Borders were redrawn. Entire languages, cultures, communities that had existed for a thousand
years simply ceased to exist in their original form. He achieved all of this without ever,
even at the height of his power, winning a free majority of the popular vote. This is why historians
return to this story not out of grim fascination, but because the entry sequence is so unnervingly
normal. There was no moment of obvious villainy where a brave senator could have stood up and said,
hold on, this is the fascist coup we have all been warned about. The horror was assembled piece by
peace by decree by decree, with the cooperation of judges who interpreted the new laws, civil servants
who processed the new paperwork, and ordinary citizens who, for whatever combination of fear,
conformity, ambition, or genuine belief, decided that this time, this once, they would simply look
the other way. And once you have looked the other way, the whole thing becomes very difficult to look back
at. The lesson, which sounds almost too simple to be a lesson, is that tyranny rarely arrives as an army at the
gate. It arrives as a candidate at the podium, holding a microphone, promising to fix things,
asking for your vote, and that, as our next story will demonstrate, is far from the only way
these systems can be built. Now, if our first dictator came in through the ballot box, our second
came in through something even more boring than that.
He came in through the filing cabinet.
While the German story is one of demagoguery and torchlit rallies,
the Soviet story under our next subject is something stranger
and in some ways more sinister,
because it shows you what happens when industrial-grade administrative procedure
is pointed at the human population like a fire hose.
There were no torch-lit rallies.
There were forms.
There were quotas.
There were stamps.
The horror was carbon-copied and filed in triplication.
He was born in 1878 in a small Georgian town called Gory, in the southern reaches of what was
then the Russian Empire. His father was a cobbler with a violent temper, his mother a devout
Orthodox Christian who scrubbed floors to pay for her son's education. She enrolled him in a religious
seminary in Tbilisi at the age of 15, hoping he would become a priest, which in retrospect is one of the
more spectacular career plot twists in modern history. He left the seminary in his early 20s,
having traded the prospect of vespers and incense for the somewhat more energetic life of an underground
revolutionary, a bank robber, and eventually a senior administrator in the Bolshevik party.
His given name was Yusuf Zhugevili, but he eventually adopted a pseudonym meaning, more or less,
man of steel. The name was a marketing decision and a self-portrait at the same time.
When Lenin died in 1924, most observers assumed the succession would go to one of the more famous and
articulate Bolsheviks, men who wrote books, gave speeches, and dazzled in debate.
Our Georgian seminarian was, by comparison, considered something of a grey bureaucrat,
a back-office type who had spent the early years of the revolution doing the dull work of
party organisation, while his more glamorous colleagues argued theory in cafes.
This turned out to be one of the great underestimations of the 20th century.
While the intellectuals were giving lectures, he had spent years quietly building a car,
index of every important official in the Soviet Union. He knew who owed favours to whom. He knew which
provincial committees needed loyal appointees and which ones needed loyal appointees urgently. By the time
his rivals understood what was happening, the entire administrative skeleton of the new state
belonged to him. His first major project, once secure in power, was something called collectivization.
The Soviet Union in the late 1920s was still overwhelmingly rural. The vast majority of its
population were peasants who farmed small plots of land, often in arrangements not much change
from the previous century. He decided this had to end. The peasants would be moved, by force if necessary,
into large collective farms run by the state. The grain they produced would be requisitioned to
feed the cities and to be sold abroad in exchange for the industrial machinery that would, in theory,
drag the country into the modern age within a single generation. The plan, as plans of this sort go,
looked excellent on paper. On paper, almost anything looks excellent. The reality was that the more
productive farmers, those who owned a few extra cows or had managed to hire a seasonal labourer,
were declared class enemies. The Russian word for them translates roughly as fist,
suggesting some sort of grasping rural oligarch, though in practice the label was applied to anyone
the local committee decided was too prosperous or insufficiently enthusiastic.
Roughly 1.8 million people were deported in the early 1930s to remote areas of Siberia and Central Asia,
often dropped off in the middle of nowhere with minimal supplies and instructed to start a new life from scratch.
Many did not survive the first winter. The countryside was hollowed out of its most experienced farmers,
which had the entirely predictable effect of making everyone else worse at farming.
What happened next is one of the great tragedies of the 20th century, and it has a specific
name in Ukrainian. The grain quotas imposed on the Ukrainian countryside in 1932 and 1933 were set
so high that after they were collected, there was nothing left for the farmers themselves to eat.
Brigades searched homes for hidden grain, seizing not just wheat but vegetables livestock,
and seed stock for the following year. The borders of Ukraine were sealed. Internal passports
were introduced to prevent peasants from fleeing to the cities. People starved within sight of
full granaries. Estimates of the death toll vary depending on which methodology you use and whether
certain demographic effects are counted. But most serious historians placed the figure between
3.5 and 7.5 million people, the vast majority of them in Ukraine, with additional victims in
Kazakhstan and the Russian countryside. Soviet authorities denied the famine was happening at all
and continued to export grain abroad even as villages emptied out. A man with a healthier perspective on
his own popularity might have considered this a sign that things had gone badly wrong. He drew
the opposite conclusion. The famine, in his analysis, proved that enemies were everywhere,
that even the apparent calm of the early 1930s was a deception, and that the only response
was more vigilance, more surveillance. More arrests. By 1937, this logic had crystallised into a
project of breathtaking scope. A single document signed in late July of that year set quotas for
arrests and executions across every region of the Soviet Union. Each province was given a specific
target number of people to be shot in category one, and a specific target number to be sent to camps
in category two. The order was numbered, in the dry administrative way these things tend to be,
and the number was 0447. There is something in the bureaucratic precision of that file number
that, if you stop and think about it for a moment, is more chilling than any speech.
What followed is usually called the Great Purge, though the word purge is a little gentle for what was actually happening.
Local officials, eager to prove their loyalty, requested permission to exceed their quotas.
In many cases, permission was granted.
Roughly 1.5 million people were arrested between 1937 and 1938.
Of those, around 681,000 were executed, often on charges so vague that the case files read like surrealist poetry.
people were shot for telling jokes about the leadership.
People were shot because their cousin had emigrated to France in 1912.
People were shot because an envious neighbour wanted their apartment.
The party itself was not spared,
of the roughly 1,96 delegates who attended the 17th Party Congress in 1934,
more than half were arrested in the years that followed.
The senior officer corps of the Red Army was decimated,
with three of five marshals, 13 of 15 army commanders, and roughly 35,000 officers in total,
either executed or imprisoned, which would prove to be a slightly inconvenient policy choice
when the country found itself at war four years later.
Threaded through all of this was the camp system, known by its acronym which translates
as the main administration of corrective labour camps.
At its peak in the early 1950s, this network stretched across the entire territory of the Soviet
Union, from the forests of Karelia to the gold mines of Colima in the far northeast,
where winter temperatures regularly dropped below minus 50. Conditions in the worst camps were calibrated,
more or less deliberately, to be just survivable enough that prisoners could still produce work,
but harsh enough that a substantial percentage would die before completing their sentences.
Estimates of the total number of people who pass through this system, across its decades of
operation generally land around 18 million, with somewhere between 1.5 and 1.8 million dying
within the camps themselves, and many more dying shortly after release, broken in body and spirit
by the experience. A small but telling feature of the era was the public theatre of the show
trials, which were held in Moscow between 1936 and 1938, and broadcast to the world as proof that
justice was being done. Old Bolsheviks, men who had spent decades fighting alongside Lenin,
men whose photographs hung on walls across the Soviet Union
were paraded into a courtroom and asked to confess to crimes that, in many cases, were physically impossible.
One defendant confessed to meeting a foreign agent at a hotel that had been demolished years before the alleged meeting took place.
Another confessed to plotting with someone who, it turned out, had died several years prior.
The contradictions were sometimes pointed out by foreign correspondence,
but the trials proceeded anyway. The verdicts were always the same,
and the executions were carried out within hours of sentencing. The victims in many cases
had been broken by sleep deprivation and threats against their families, and they recited their
confessions in the calm voices of men who had simply run out of fight. Watching the recordings
now, the most disturbing thing is not the rage of the prosecutors, but the dignity of the accused,
performing one final. Useless service for a system that had already decided their fate before
the cameras started rolling. What makes this system distinctive in the larger history of state violence
is its sheer paperwork. Every prisoner had a file, every arrest had a justification, however absurd,
every execution had a warrant, however perfunctory the trial that produced it. The man at the top of the
system did not walk among his victims with a sword. He sat at a desk in the Kremlin, often working
through the night and signed lists. Historians have recovered many of these lists. Some of them
contain hundreds of names per page. He would mark a small symbol next to each name to indicate
the sentence, and pages of these markings would be returned to the relevant offices for execution.
He is reported on more than one occasion to have annotated lists with small editorial comments,
the equivalent of a manager leaving notes on a quarterly report, except the report was a list of people
to be shot. He survived the war that followed, though his early decisions, including the disastrous
purge of his own officer corps and the willful blindness toward warnings that Germany was preparing
to invade in 1941 cost the Soviet Union millions of additional lives in the opening months of the
conflict. The country won the war eventually, at a price of roughly 27 million dead, but the cost
was distributed unevenly, and a great deal of it could be traced back to him personally. After the war,
the apparatus of repression continued, slightly less ferociously than before, but never really stopping.
campaigns began against various groups, soldiers returning from German prisoner of war camps were
often promptly arrested on suspicion of having been ideologically contaminated by their captivity.
The man who had once been a Georgian seminarian became, in his final years, an old man
living in a fortified compound drinking heavily, dictating policy to terrified subordinates who knew
that bringing him bad news might be the last thing they ever did. He died on March 5, 1953,
at the age of 74.
The circumstances of his death are perhaps the most darkly fitting detail of his entire life.
He had suffered some sort of stroke in his bedroom at his country house, outside Moscow on the night of March 1st.
The next morning his guards noticed he had not emerged at his usual hour.
They were too frightened to enter the room.
Hours passed.
They sent for senior officials who also hesitated to enter.
By the time anyone finally opened the door he was lying on the floor, conscious but unable to speak.
having been there for many hours.
The doctors who eventually arrived were themselves nervous and inexperienced,
in part because his personal physician had been arrested earlier that year
on charges of conspiring to murder Soviet leaders.
He lingered for several days, unable to communicate,
and finally died in his own house, in his own bed,
surrounded by people whose principal emotion appeared to be relief.
The total human cost of his rule is difficult to fix at a single number,
in part because the categories overlap, and in part because the relevant archives only began to open
seriously in the 1990s. Most serious estimates placed the total deaths attributable to his policies,
including the famine, the purges, the camps, deportations of entire ethnic populations and various
other categories, at somewhere between 9 and 20 million people, depending on what you count.
He himself was never tried, never even formally accused, never asked to answer for any
of it during his lifetime. His successor denounced him in a closed speech in 1956, but the denunciation
was partial and self-interested, and his image continued to hang in offices and classrooms for years
afterward. To this day, polls in his home country produce a stubborn percentage of respondents
who consider him a great leader. The thing that connects our first two stories, beyond the obvious
matter of mass death, is the relationship between the leader and the institutions around him. In one case,
a parliamentary system with elected representatives, an independent judiciary, and a free press
was dismantled within months by exploiting its own legal procedures. In the other, an already
authoritarian state was retooled into something even more lethal by mastering its bureaucracy
and using it as a weapon. In both cases, the people doing the killing were, for the most part,
not monsters in any clinical sense. They were officials, clerks, soldiers, neighbours,
they followed orders, they filled out forms, they went home.
home and had dinner with their families. The worst part of the story, the part that makes it
genuinely difficult to think about for too long, is how ordinary it all was at the level of the
individual day, and it is precisely that ordinariness, as our next chapter will show, that allows
these projects to scale to numbers no individual conscience could possibly hold. If our previous
two figures showed us how tyranny scales through bureaucracy and crowd manipulation, our next
subject takes the conversation to a different scale entirely, both in geography and in raw human
cost. We are leaving Europe behind now, travelling east across the steps and the Gobi Desert,
into a civilisation with 5,000 years of recorded history, a country that had invented gunpowder,
paper, the compass, and the printing press, while Europe was still figuring out how to keep its
castles from falling down. China, in the early 20th century, was nothing if not ancient. By the time
our man finished with it, it had been turned into something the world had genuinely never seen before,
which is a place where peacetime decisions killed more people than the entire Second World War.
He was born in 1893 in a village called Shaoshan, tucked into the hills of Hunan province,
in a household that, by the standards of rural China at the time, was actually doing pretty well.
His father was a moderately prosperous farmer who lent money to neighbours and counted his coins in the
evening. The kind of man whose son was supposed to grow up, take over the
the farm and continue the cycle of careful accumulation. The son had other plans. He fought constantly
with his father, devoured every book he could get his hands on, and at the age of 13 ran away from home
for the first of what would turn out to be many times. He eventually made his way to the provincial
capital, then to Beijing, where he found work as a junior assistant in the university library.
The job paid him a salary roughly one-eighth of what the famous professors earned, and he was largely
ignored by the very intellectuals whose lectures he sometimes attended at the back of crowded halls.
This experience of being condescended to by educated city people would echo through every decision
he made for the next 60 years. The China he inherited as a young man was, to put it gently, a mess.
The last imperial dynasty had collapsed in 1911, after roughly two and a half millennia of more
or less continuous monarchy, and the country that emerged on the other side was a patchwork of
warlord territories, foreign concessions, missionary schools and starving peasants.
Foreign powers had been carving slices off the coast for decades. The Japanese were preparing
for an invasion that would eventually consume more than a decade of Chinese life.
Famine was a regular feature of the calendar, banditry was endemic in the countryside,
and the average life expectancy was somewhere in the mid-30s, depending on which province
you happened to be born in. Anyone offering a coherent vision of a unified, modern,
dignified China, had a sympathetic audience almost by default. The trouble, of course, was that several
different people were offering several different versions of that vision, and they did not get along.
He joined the small Chinese Communist Party in 1921 as essentially a junior member, one of about a
dozen attendees at the founding meeting in Shanghai. When Westchow first took flight in 1996,
the vibes were a bit different. People thought denim on denim was peak fashion, inline skates
were everywhere, and two out of three women rocked, the Rachel. While those things stayed in the
90s, one thing that hasn't is that fuzzy feeling you get when WestJet welcomes you on board.
Here's to Westjetting since 96. Travel back in time with us and actually travel with us at
westjet.com slash 30 years. Over the next two decades, he survived an extraordinary
sequence of military defeats, internal purges, betrayals, and what should have been career-ending
political setbacks. The famous long march of 1934 and 1935, in which the surviving communist forces
retreated roughly 6,000 miles across some of the most punishing terrain on earth, began with about
86,000 people, and ended with somewhere around 8,000. The official version told later in textbooks
transformed this catastrophe into a heroic triumph, which is one of the more impressive feats of
historical rebranding in modern times. Most retreats, after all, do not give you.
get monuments. By the end of the long march, he had emerged as the leader of the surviving
communist movement, partly through political maneuvering and partly through the fact that everyone
above him in the party hierarchy was now either dead or discredited. Sometimes promotion is a matter of
being the last man standing in a room that started with 30 people. The Japanese invasion that ran from
1937 to 1945 wreaked unimaginable destruction on the country, but it also gave the communist
movement breathing room to organise the countryside, while the existing government, exhausted by
years of fighting Japan, slowly lost both legitimacy and military capacity. By 1949, after a brief
but decisive civil war, the communists controlled the mainland. The previous government fled to
the island of Taiwan. And on October 1st of that year, our man stood on a balcony
overlooking Tiananmen Square and announced the founding of the People's Republic. He was 55 years old,
he had spent his entire adult life either underground or in the wilderness, and he was now in charge
of roughly one quarter of the human race. The first decade or so of his rule produced some
genuine improvements that should be honestly acknowledged, if only because the catastrophe that
followed makes more sense in context. Literacy rates climbed sharply. Basic healthcare reached villages
that had never seen a doctor.
Land was redistributed from large landowners to peasants,
though the redistribution was often accompanied by public denunciation sessions
in which landlords were beaten or killed by their former tenants,
a process that, depending on whose estimates you trust,
killed somewhere between one and two million people in the early 1950s alone.
The country developed a coherent national administration
for the first time in nearly half a century.
For a brief moment, it almost looked like the system might settle into something stable
even if not particularly pleasant for its political opponents.
Then came the moment when our man decided that Stable was not what he wanted.
In 1958, frustrated by what he considered the slow pace of industrial development
and convinced that sheer human will could overcome any technical obstacle,
he announced a program that translated more or less directly as the Great Leap Forward.
The plan was to industrialize China within roughly 15 years,
surpassing Britain in steel production and catching up with the United States.
by mobilising the rural population into massive collective communes
and having them produce industrial goods alongside their agricultural work.
The economics behind the plan were, to put it kindly, optimistic.
The most famous expression of this optimism was the policy of backyard furnaces,
in which farmers across the country were instructed to build small smelting operations in their own villages
and produce steel from whatever scrap metal they could find.
Pots and pans were melted down, door hinges were made,
melted down. Agricultural tools were melted down, which was a slightly counterproductive choice,
given that these were the same villages expected to also produce record-breaking grain harvest
with no tools. The steel that came out of these furnaces was, unsurprisingly, almost entirely
useless. It was the wrong consistency, full of impurities, often crumbled when struck, and could not
be used for any serious industrial purpose. Most of it was eventually melted down again at
proper foundries or simply discarded. Meanwhile, the agricultural side of the plan was producing
reports of grain harvest that doubled and tripled within a single year. Numbers so impossibly
large that experienced farmers reading them out loud in village meetings allegedly had to suppress
laughter. The reports were fabrications, of course, generated by local officials who knew that
anything less than miraculous production figures would mark them as politically unreliable.
Each level of the bureaucracy added its own optimistic adjustment to the numbers as
travelled upward. Until by the time the figures reached Beijing, the country was officially
producing more grain than it could possibly consume. On the basis of these phantom harvests,
the central government dramatically increased the amount of grain it requisitioned from the countryside,
including for export abroad to demonstrate the success of the new model. This was the kind of
accounting error that, in a normal company, might lead to a reorganisation of the finance department.
Here it killed somewhere between 30 and 45 million people.
The famine that resulted, which historians today generally consider the largest in human history,
is one of those events that becomes more horrifying the more you learn about the specifics.
The countryside ran out of food in late 1959 and 1960,
but because the official numbers said the harvest were record-breaking,
the requisition trucks kept coming.
Villagers ate tree bark, they ate clay, they ate insects, leaves, roots,
the leather covers of saddles.
There are documented cases,
recorded in internal party investigations
that were classified for decades
and only began to appear in academic studies in the 2000s,
of villages where neighbours quietly agreed
not to ask too many questions
about where the meat came from.
The party leadership in Beijing was aware
by mid-1959 at the latest
that something was going wrong.
A senior military figure named Peng de Huai
wrote a private letter to the chairman in July of that year,
raising concerns about the reports from the countryside,
he was promptly denounced, removed from his positions,
and spent the rest of his life in disgrace.
The lesson, observed by every other senior official in the room,
was that bringing bad news to the top was a career move with very few advantages.
The Great Leap Forward was finally wound down in 1961,
by which point the damage was done.
He stepped back from day-to-day administration for several years,
allowing more pragmatic colleagues to clean up the catastrophe and slowly restore the food supply.
To anyone watching from the outside, this might have looked like a graceful semi-retirement.
The elder statesman content to enjoy his books and his swimming pool, while younger men handled the boring work of governing.
To anyone watching from the inside, however, his behaviour was already showing signs of the next storm.
He read constantly, he brooded.
He convinced himself that the colleagues who were repairing the agricultural system were
also, simultaneously, plotting to push him aside, and that their pragmatism was itself a form of
ideological betrayal. By 1966, he had decided to do something about it. What followed is generally
remembered as the Cultural Revolution, a name that, like most names of this kind, makes the event
sound considerably more orderly than it actually was. The official goal was to root out the
so-called four-olds, which were old customs, old culture, old habits, and old ideas.
The actual mechanism was to mobilize teenagers, organize them into paramilitary groups called
Red Guards, give them armbands and copies of a small red book of his quotations,
and turn them loose on their own teachers, parents, neighbours, and anyone else who could be
accused of harboring and pure thoughts. Schools were shut down, universities were shut down,
the country's massive cultural heritage, which is to say 5,000 years of art,
literature, architecture, religious practice and craftsmanship, was declared an obstacle to the
revolution. Temples were smashed, libraries were burned. Ancient scrolls that had survived
dynastic collapses, foreign invasions and centuries of neglect were destroyed in afternoons by
gangs of 15-year-olds who had been told they were striking blows for progress. The personal
cost of all this was predictably devastating. Professors were paraded through their own campuses
wearing tall paper hats and signs around their necks, listing their alleged ideological crimes.
They were forced to kneel on broken glass, beaten in front of their students, and in many cases
driven to suicide. Doctors who had trained abroad found themselves cleaning hospital toilets,
while their teenage former patients accused them of treason. The country's senior writers,
painters and filmmakers were systematically humiliated, with the famous novelist Laoshee
drowning himself in a Beijing lake in August 1966 after being publicly attacked.
Engineers and scientists fared somewhat better, only by the novelist.
because the regime eventually realized that someone needed to keep the bridges standing and the nuclear
weapons program functional, but even they were sent in many cases to remote rural communes
to perform agricultural labour for years at a time as a form of ideological re-education.
The pianist Liu Shikun had his hands broken so he could no longer play. The mathematician
Chen Jingrun was beaten and confined to a tiny room. Stories of this kind multiplied across the
country in the millions.
What makes this period so distinctive in the broader history of state violence is that,
unlike the highly bureaucratic killing of our previous chapters,
much of the harm here was inflicted by ordinary citizens upon one another, often within families.
Children denounce their parents, students beat their teachers.
Junior colleagues turned in senior colleagues.
The chaos served the man at the top because it kept the entire society in a state of permanent insecurity,
in which no one could be confident of any.
anything from one week to the next, which is exactly the condition in which a paranoid leader
can rule without effective opposition. The estimated death toll of the Cultural Revolution proper,
which lasted roughly from 1966 to 1976, varies enormously, depending on what categories
of death you include, but most serious estimates place direct fatalities somewhere between
one and two million, with tens of millions more subjected to imprisonment, torture,
public humiliation, forced relocation, or the ruination of their education and professional lives.
There is one further dimension of the Cultural Revolution that deserves a brief mention,
because it explains why the damage echoes into the present even now.
Beyond the loss of life and the destruction of art,
the period produced what historians call a lost generation.
Anyone who came of age between 1966 and 1976 had their formal education either interrupted, distorted,
or replaced entirely with political indoctrination and agricultural labour.
Universities reopened only intermittently, and even when they did, admission was based not on
academic merit but on political reliability. The result was that when the country eventually pivoted
toward economic modernisation, in the late 1970s and 1980s, it found itself short of an entire
cohort of trained engineers, doctors, scientists and administrators in their 30s and 40s.
the age range that in any normal society provides the operational backbone of a working economy.
The country had to scramble, sending students abroad in massive numbers, importing foreign expertise
at considerable cost and effectively skipping a generation in many professional fields.
The economic miracle that began under his successors was real, but it was built on top of a demographic
and educational hole that took decades to fill, and in some ways has never been fully filled.
He himself died on September 9, 1976, in his bed in Beijing at the age of 82.
He had been in declining health for years, suffering from various conditions,
including what was probably a form of motor neurone disease,
and in his final months he could barely speak or feed himself.
He was the absolute ruler of nearly a billion people,
and he died surrounded by physicians and political handlers,
none of whom dared make decisions about his care without consulting other handlers.
Within roughly a month of his death, his closest political allies, including his fourth wife and the so-called gang of four, were arrested by his successors and put on trial.
The verdict was unambiguous.
The Cultural Revolution was officially condemned.
The Great Leap Forward was officially condemned.
And yet, in one of the more peculiar features of how history is allowed to be remembered,
his portrait was not taken down.
Today his face still gazes out across Tiananmen Square in Beijing,
the same square where, in 1989, students gathered to demand reforms and were dispersed by tanks.
His image appears on every denomination of Chinese paper currency.
His mausoleum, located at the southern end of the square, draws thousands of visitors a day.
The official Communist Party verdict on his career, formerly adopted in 1981,
declared that he had been 70% correct and 30% mistaken,
which is the kind of mathematical precision you would expect from people who have to keep working in the same building
where most of the relevant decisions were made.
That formula has never been revised.
School textbooks across China contain detailed accounts of various historical events,
but treat the Great Leap Famine and the Cultural Revolution with what might charitably be called
brevity, an entire generation of Chinese citizens for better and worse, knows less about the worst
events of their own recent national history than foreign tourists do. The total death toll attributable
to his policies when you combine the famine, the political campaigns, the cultural revolution,
the various lesser-known purges of the 1950s, and the executions of landlords and so-called
counter-revolutionaries is the subject of ongoing scholarly debate.
Conservative estimates land somewhere around 40 million.
Higher estimates exceed 70 million.
The lower bound alone exceeds the total combat deaths of every army in the Second World War
combined on every continent across all six years of fighting.
He achieved this in peacetime, in his own country, against his own population,
by mostly making policy decisions in meeting rooms.
He was never tried, never prosecuted, never even formally accused during his lifetime,
and his successors decided that any honest accounting would also implicate too many of the people
still in charge. So the numbers sit there in academic books and demographic studies,
while the picture continues to hang on the wall.
Now, if our previous figure represented the largest absolute death toll in our story,
our next one represents perhaps the highest percentage, the country will,
we are about to visit had a population of roughly seven and a half million people. Within four years,
the regime in question killed somewhere around a quarter of them. That is not a national tragedy
in the ordinary sense. That is something closer to civilizational suicide. He was born in 1925,
in a village in central Cambodia, into a family that was, as these things tend to go in our story,
surprisingly comfortable. His father was a relatively prosperous farmer with strong connections to the
royal court, and the family included relatives who served as palace dancers and minor officials.
The boy himself had several older siblings who had moved to Phnom Pen, the capital,
and through their patronage he was sent to live with them and attend a series of increasingly
prestigious schools. He was, by all surviving accounts, a quiet, soft-spoken, polite young man
who tended to fade into the background in any crowd. His teachers remembered him as unremarkable,
his classmates remembered him as agreeable.
There is a striking and somewhat haunting consistency to this portrait across multiple sources,
because nothing in his temperament, his early writings or his behaviour suggested anything resembling the figure he would later become.
If you were trying to spot a future genocidal autocrat in the classroom, he is not the boy you would have picked.
In 1949, at the age of about 24, he won a scholarship to study in Paris,
which at that moment was perhaps the world capital of left-wing intellectual ferment.
He arrived as provincial Cambodian students studying radio electronics,
and he found himself surrounded by a generation of European thinkers debating colonialism,
revolution and the future of the developing world.
He never finished his degree.
He failed his examinations multiple times,
partly because he was spending most of his time in the Cambodian Student Association,
rather than in the laboratory,
and his scholarship was eventually revoked.
But during those years in Paris he met a circle of fellow Cambodian students, several of whom would
later become his closest collaborators, and he absorbed a particular strand of revolutionary
thought that emphasized the rural peasantry as the only truly authentic class.
The cities in this view were sites of corruption, foreign influence and parasitic privilege.
The pure source of national virtue was the simple farmer in the field.
This idea, which sounded romantic in a Paris cafe, would acquire a very different meaning
when it was implemented at gunpoint 20 years later.
He returned to Cambodia in 1953, taught school for a while, and gradually drifted into underground
political work.
For most of the next two decades, he was an obscure figure, operating out of jungle camps
near the Vietnamese border, leading a small communist movement that had little popular
support and was widely dismissed by everyone, including the regional communist power.
as marginal at best.
The man who had later be known to the world by a different name was during these years,
a low-level revolutionary using the rather pedestrian alias brother number one within his own party.
The conditions that allowed him to seize power, however, had nothing to do with his own
organisational genius.
They had to do with the catastrophic destabilisation of Cambodia by the war next door.
Between 1969 and 1973, the United States dropped roughly half a million tons of bombs on
Cambodian territory in an effort to disrupt supply routes used by Vietnamese communist forces.
The bombing devastated rural communities, drove peasants into the cities as refugees, and produced
exactly the conditions in which a previously fringe revolutionary movement could grow into a real
military force. By 1975, his army, known to the world as the Khmer Rouge, was at the gates of the
capital. On the morning of April 17, 1975, his soldiers entered Phnom Penh.
The Civil War was over. What happened over the next 48 hours has very few historical parallels.
Almost immediately the new regime announced that the city had to be evacuated.
The reason given was that the Americans were about to bomb the capital, a claim that was completely fabricated.
The real reason was ideological.
The cities, in the new doctrine, were to be emptied.
Every resident of Phnom Pen, regardless of age, health or occupation, was ordered to leave on foot,
immediately, with whatever they could carry.
Hospitals were emptied of their patients,
with people pushed out into the streets still in their hospital gowns,
some still attached to intravenous lines.
Elderly people who could not walk were carried by their children,
and many died on the road.
Within roughly 72 hours, a city of more than 2 million people
had been reduced to a near ghost town inhabited only by soldiers
and a handful of foreign diplomats hold up in the French embassy.
The same procedure was carried out in every other city across the country in the days that followed.
The evacuees were marched into the countryside and assigned to vast collective work sites
where they were expected to perform agricultural labour for between 12 and 15 hours a day
on rations of, in many cases, one tin of rice per week, shared among multiple people.
Money was abolished. The National Bank in Phnom Pen was blown up. Schools were closed,
hospitals were closed. Religion was banned, with monks expelled from their temples, and many of them
executed. The wearing of glasses was treated in some areas as a sign of belonging to the educated
urban class, and therefore as evidence of guilt. Cambodian survivors have testified that simply
admitting to having attended high school could be enough to mark you as an enemy of the revolution.
Speaking a foreign language was even worse, having relatives abroad was nearly always fatal.
the new regime renamed the country and renumbered the calendar to begin at zero.
The phrase used to describe this was year zero, and the name captures something essential about the project.
It was not enough to seize power and reshape society.
The previous society had to be conceptually erased, declared never to have existed,
replaced with a clean slate on which the new and final civilization could be inscribed.
The country's 2,000 years of recorded history, its Buddhist monasteries, its classical,
dance, its medical traditions, its written literature, its libraries, its temples were all
categorised as obstacles. Anyone who had been part of the old society at any meaningful level
was, by definition, a candidate for elimination. The interrogation and execution apparatus
was anchored in a former high school in central Phnom Pen, which had been converted into the regime's
main political prison. It was known by a code S-21, which is the kind of designation that
In any normal country would refer to a subsection of a tax form.
Of the roughly 20,000 people who passed through its gates during the regime's four years in power,
the number of survivors who walked back out is generally reported as seven.
Seven.
The prisoners included party officials accused of disloyalty,
foreign nationals captured at sea, ordinary peasants accused of sabotage,
and increasingly, as the years went on,
members of the regime's own inner circle,
because the search for hidden enemies eventually consumed the very institutions doing the searching.
Detailed records were kept. Confessions were extracted under torture and filed away.
Photographs were taken of every prisoner upon arrival, and these photographs, thousands of them, survived today in what is now a museum on the former site.
The faces in those pictures are almost unbearable to look at. Many of them belong to children.
Beyond the prison system, the larger killing happened in the countryside. At sites,
that became known, in the bleak shorthand of the survivors and the journalists who documented
them afterward, as the killing fields. People were marched out at night, made to dig their
own pits, and dispatched with whatever was available, which because ammunition was scarce, often
meant tools intended for agriculture. Hundreds of these sites have been documented across the country.
Mass graves continue to surface even now, when farmers extending a field or builders
breaking ground for a foundation discover bones in the soil.
The total death toll under the regime is generally estimated between 1.5 and 2 million people in a country of roughly 7.5 million,
though some studies place the figure higher.
As a percentage of the national population, this is among the worst documented cases of state-driven mass killing in modern history.
There are villages today in rural Cambodia where it is genuinely difficult to find anyone over the age of 45
because that entire demographic was destroyed.
The regime ended in January 1979, not because it collapsed from within, but because it picked
a fight with its much larger neighbour. Border raids and increasingly hostile rhetoric provoked Vietnam
into invading. The Vietnamese army, which was actually a serious military force with recent
combat experience, took the capital in roughly two weeks. The leadership fled into the
Western jungles near the Thai border, where they continued to operate as an insurgency for nearly
two more decades, drawing intermittent support from various foreign governments who, in the strange
logic of the Cold War, considered them a useful counterweight to Vietnamese influence. He himself
lived in remote jungle camps for the rest of his life, sheltered by his remaining followers,
occasionally giving interviews to foreign journalists in which he denied that anything particularly
unusual had happened during his time in power. He died in April 1998, in a small jungle hut,
of what his colleagues described as heart failure,
though there is some persistent suspicion
that he may have been poisoned by his own subordinates
as they negotiated to surrender to the international community.
He was 73 years old.
He had ruled the country for less than four years.
In that time, his policies had killed approximately a quarter of the population.
He never stood trial.
His body was cremated on a pile of old tires next to his hut,
in a ceremony attended by perhaps a dozen people.
A handful of his senior associates were eventually tried by an international tribunal in the 2000s,
but most of them died of natural causes during the proceedings,
and the trials are widely considered to have produced something less than a full reckoning.
There is one detail about all of this that I have always found particularly difficult to put down once you pick it up,
and it is this.
The regime kept records, meticulous records, forms with names and dates and confessions and photographs.
The same impulse that produced the files in our previous chapter, the bureaucratic instinct to document the killing,
produced thousands of pages of evidence that were left behind when the leadership fled in 1979.
Researchers and survivors have spent decades sorting through this material,
and what emerges from it is a portrait of a regime that genuinely believed it was doing necessary work.
The files are not embarrassed, they are not hidden, they are organized.
The killers, if you read their internal communications, did not consider themselves.
killers. They considered themselves administrators of a process. The victims, in this internal logic,
were not human beings being murdered, but problems being solved. This way of thinking, which
appears in every chapter of this story so far in slightly different forms, is perhaps the
single most important thing to understand about how mass violence actually functions. It almost
never feels like evil from the inside, it feels like work, and it is precisely this quality,
the ordinariness of the paperwork and the calmness of the meeting rooms
that allows the numbers to keep climbing and keep climbing and keep climbing
until they reach figures that no human conscience could ever fully hold
every regime we have visited so far has shared one mercy
which is that it ended the leaders died the systems collapsed or were dismantled
and the survivors were eventually free to count their dead and try to make sense of what had happened to them
our next chapter is different the story we are about to
to tell is the only one in this entire documentary that does not have a conclusion, because the regime
in question is, as you sit there in the quiet of your room, still going. Right now, somewhere on the
eastern coast of Asia, the system we are about to describe is operating at full strength, processing
its prisoners, broadcasting its messages, training its children to weep on cue at the sound of a
particular family name. There is no past tense here. There is only an ongoing present. If you ever
want a single image that captures what this regime has done to the country it controls,
look up the satellite photograph of the Korean Peninsula at night. It is one of the most
striking pictures in the entire archive of Earth observation imagery, and it requires no explanation.
The southern half of the peninsula glows with the warm chaos of any developed economy,
freeways tracing bright veins between cities, the suburbs of Seoul bleeding into one another,
the southern port of Busan throwing light into the Pacific.
Then, somewhere along an invisible line, everything goes dark.
Not dim, not patchy, but genuinely dark, avoid roughly the size of England,
broken only by a single concentrated point of light near the western coast.
That point is the capital.
The rest of the country, home to roughly 26 million people,
is essentially unlit at the level of basic electrical service.
The South Korean coast looks like a fairground at midnight.
The north looks like the surface of an unlit moon with one campfire on it.
The dynasty that produced this remarkable result was founded by a man born in 1912
in a small village near the present-day capital,
into a poor family of farm labourers and minor Christian converts.
His early life unfolded against the backdrop of Japanese colonial rule over Korea,
which lasted from 1910 to 1945,
and which historians generally describe in terms ranging from harsh to brutal, depending on which
decade you're discussing. He emigrated as a teenager with his family into the Russian Far East,
learned Russian, and eventually joined a Soviet-trained guerrilla unit operating along the
Manchurian border. His military service in the Second World War was modest by Soviet standards,
but useful for biographical purposes. When the Japanese surrender in August 1945 left the Korean
peninsula divided between Soviet occupation in the north and American occupation in the south,
the Soviets needed a Korean figurehead they could trust, and a 33-year-old former captain in their
own army was, from their perspective, an excellent candidate. He was flown into the country
in October of that year, presented to a public rally as a national hero whose exploits had been
somewhat creatively expanded for the occasion, and installed at the head of the new northern
administration. The man who would later be marketed to his own population as the
eternal son of the nation arrived, in other words, on a Soviet airplane. Five years later, in June
1950, he persuaded a reluctant Stalin to approve an invasion of the southern half of the peninsula,
on the theory that the regime in the south was so unpopular it would collapse within weeks. This was,
to put it mildly, an optimistic assessment. The invasion produced a three-year war that drew in the
United States, China and a dozen other countries, killed somewhere between two and three million
Koreans on both sides of the dividing line, and ended in 1953 with an armistice that left
the peninsula split almost exactly where it had been at the start. There was no peace treaty.
There has still never been a peace treaty. Technically, the Korean War has now been ongoing for
over seven decades, which is one of those bureaucratic absurdities that becomes genuinely
surreal when you stop and think about it. People who were not born when the fighting stopped
are now retiring from careers spent in the technical state of war it produced.
The regime that emerged in the north during the 1950s and 1960s
is sometimes described as communist,
but this label, while not entirely wrong,
misses what makes the system so distinctive.
The official ideology, developed by the founder and refined by a small circle of theorists,
was given a name that translates roughly as self-reliance.
In practice, this doctrine combined elements of Marxism
with intense ethnic nationalism.
a deep suspicion of foreign influence and an almost mystical reverence for the leader himself.
By the 1970s, the country had effectively replaced the gods of its older religious traditions
with the family at the top of the political pyramid.
School textbooks taught children that the leader could control the weather,
that he had been born under a double rainbow on a sacred mountain,
and that his very gaze contained healing properties.
These claims were not advanced as poetic metaphor.
They were taught as fact, examined on tests and recited in unison during morning assemblies.
To this day, every classroom, every office, every train carriage and every household
is required to display portraits of the founder and his successor,
and citizens can be punished for allowing dust to accumulate on the frames,
or for storing the portraits at improper heights relative to other images on the wall.
What makes the system distinctive in the larger story we have been telling
is the extent to which loyalty itself has been classified, hereditised and managed as a resource of the state.
Every citizen is assigned at birth to one of three broad classes based on the political reliability of their grandparents.
The system is called Songbun.
The top tier, sometimes called the core class, consists of descendants of revolutionary heroes, war veterans and reliable peasant families.
The middle tier, the wavering class, includes most ordinary citizens whose ancestors,
did not particularly distinguish themselves either way.
The bottom tier, the hostile class,
contains descendants of landlords,
religious figures,
collaborators with the Japanese,
defectors to the South,
and various other categories considered ideologically suspect.
Within these three broad tiers,
there are roughly 50 subcategories,
each carrying specific consequences for housing,
employment, education, marriage prospects,
and ration entitlements.
If your grandfather worked for a Christian
missionary in the 1940s, you may, in 2026, be in eligible to live in the capital, attend a major
university, or hold a meaningful job. The system is not announced to its subjects in any formal way.
Most people do not know precisely where they have been classified. They simply discover,
over the course of their lives, which doors quietly fail to open for them. For those classified
at the very bottom, or for anyone whose behaviour attracts unfavourable official attention,
there is a network of camps known by a Korean term meaning roughly control area.
These are not the labour camps of our earlier chapters with their accountants and quotas.
They are something more permanent and more genealogically inclusive.
When a person is sent to one of these facilities, in most cases their parents, spouse, children,
and sometimes their cousins are sent as well,
on the principle that political contamination is a family condition and must be quarantined accordingly.
The doctrine is sometimes called three generations of punishment,
and it means that grandchildren can be born inside a camp,
raised inside a camp,
work inside a camp,
and die inside a camp without ever seeing the country outside the perimeter.
Their crime, as a matter of formal justification,
is being descended from the wrong relative.
The estimated population of these camps
derived from satellite imagery, defector testimony,
and academic studies,
is generally placed between 80,000 and 120,000 people,
distributed across roughly half a dozen large facilities and a network of smaller ones.
The conditions, as documented by survivors who have escaped or been released over the past several
decades, include extreme hunger, untreated injuries, public executions performed for educational
purposes in front of the other prisoners, and a labour regimen calibrated to extract whatever
productive value remained in human beings before they wore out.
One former campguard who defected described, in testimony given,
given to a UN Commission of Inquiry in 2014, his memory of children who could no longer
rise from sleep being kicked into wakefulness by guards who did not want to fall behind on
their daily quotas. The Commission's report, which collected hundreds of such accounts,
concluded that the abuses documented had no parallel in the contemporary world, which is the
kind of phrase international bodies use only when they have run out of more cautious language.
The founder of the dynasty died in July 1994 at the age of 82.
of what was officially described as a heart attack brought on by overwork on behalf of the people.
He had ruled the country for nearly half a century.
His son, who had been groomed for the succession for over two decades by that point,
took over without serious challenge,
becoming the first leader in modern history to inherit a communist state from his own father.
The son was, by most accounts, a strange figure even by the standards of this story.
He was reportedly an obsessive collector of foreign films,
with a personal library said to contain tens of thousands of titles.
He liked imported brandy
and was rumoured to have ordered live lobsters flown in by helicopter
to remote locations during inspection tours.
He once kidnapped a famous South Korean film director
and his actress wife brought them to the north
and forced them at gunpoint to produce films he believed
would elevate the prestige of the national cinema.
The director eventually escaped during a trip to Vienna,
leaving behind one of the more genuinely bizarre footnotes in the history of state-sponsored cultural policy.
Within months of the Sun's accession, the country entered what would become one of the worst periods of its modern existence.
The Soviet Union, which had been the regime's principal economic patron for decades, had collapsed three years earlier.
China, traditionally the secondary patron, was rapidly modernising along lines that were not particularly compatible with the regime's ideology.
international aid was drying up. A series of natural disasters in 1995 and 1996 destroyed crops
across the agricultural heartland. The combined effect, when added to a deeply dysfunctional
command economy, and the leadership's refusal to acknowledge the scale of what was happening,
was the catastrophe euphemistically referred to in official communications as the arduous march.
The phrase deserves examination. It frames the famine that killed somewhere between several
hundred thousand and a million people, not as a policy failure, but as a heroic test of national
character, a temporary inconvenience to be endured with appropriate enthusiasm. The state continued
to feed its army and its capital. The provinces, particularly the northeastern industrial regions,
were essentially left to fend for themselves. The cult of personality that surrounds the
leadership has architectural and calendrical dimensions that are worth describing in some detail,
because they show how completely the family has displaced ordinary public life as the organising centre of the country.
The capital city is built around a series of monumental sites dedicated to the founders.
A bronze statue, roughly 22 metres tall, originally erected in 1972 to commemorate the founder's 60th birthday,
stands on a hill overlooking the city.
Foreign visitors, when permitted to tour the capital, are required to bow when approaching the statues,
and photographs of the statues must always include the entire figure,
never just a portion, on the principle that cropping any part of the leader's body constitutes a form of disrespect.
A photographer once produced a series of widely circulated images for a foreign magazine
in which several of the photographs accidentally violated this rule,
and the resulting diplomatic complaint took weeks to settle.
The country also operates on its own calendar called the Ushay calendar,
which begins in 1912, the year of the founder's birth.
By this counting, the year 2026 is also the year 115.
School certificates, official documents and many publications use the alternative dating,
which means that anyone reading the country's internal newspapers is reminded
simply by looking at the date in the masthead that history itself is held to begin with one specific person.
Education is, as you might expect by this point, calibrated from preschool onward to reinforce these messages.
children begin learning songs and stories about the founders before they can read
are introduced to a curriculum about the leadership's heroic biography
that runs throughout primary and secondary education
and are required, as part of the standard school routine,
to participate in mass exercises that produce the elaborate synchronised performances
the regime occasionally allows foreign cameras to film.
The famous mass games, in which tens of thousands of participants
form coordinated images using coloured cards held above their heads,
are the visible product of years of after-school rehearsal beginning in early childhood.
The participants do not, in any meaningful sense, volunteer.
The training is part of growing up.
By the time a young citizen reaches adulthood,
the patterns of devotion have been so thoroughly internalised
that distinguishing them from genuine personal belief becomes,
even for the person involved, almost impossible.
What people did to survive that period
and how they organised food production outside the official rationing system
once it stopped functioning, is one of the more remarkable and underappreciated stories of the late
20th century. Markets, which had been illegal under the original economic doctrine, sprang up
spontaneously in every town. Women, who are generally considered less essential to the official
workforce and therefore had more flexibility to engage in informal trade, became the primary breadwinners
in countless households. People walked across the Chinese border at night, traded family heirlooms
for bags of rice and walked back. Children were taught to recognise edible plants in the woods.
The old hierarchies, in which a family's position in the loyalty system, determined access
to food through official channels, were partially scrambled by the rise of these underground
economies, because the new currency was not loyalty, but the ability to produce or trade
things people actually needed. The regime, which had survived the famine itself, eventually responded
to this informal economy by alternately tolerated.
it, taxing it, periodically cracking down on it, and tolerating it again in cycles that have
continued ever since. The country is no longer the pure command economy at once advertised itself
as being. What it is now is harder to describe, because the official version and the lived
reality have been operating in parallel for so long that nobody, possibly including the
leadership, knows where one ends and the other begins. The sun ruled for 17 years, presiding over a
continued slow decline in the basic standard of living combined with an aggressive program of
nuclear weapons development. The first detonation came in 2006, a small underground test in a remote
mountain region. International condemnation followed. Sanctions were tightened, negotiations were
attempted, abandoned, attempted again. The country tested progressively larger devices.
Missile programs accelerated. The pattern, which observers gradually came to recognize, was that
periodic provocations produced international attention, attention produced negotiations,
negotiations produce concessions, and concessions produced funds that allowed the next round of
weapons development. It was, from a certain angle, a remarkably effective business model,
sustained by the regime's correct calculation that no foreign power had any appetite for the
consequences of actually trying to remove it by force. The lesson the leadership had drawn
from watching previous regimes around the world fall,
and we are here gesturing at one of the figures we will discuss in our next chapter,
was that giving up your weapons of mass destruction
is something only people who do not understand the modern world would actually do.
Once you have them, you keep them.
They are not a bargaining chip.
They are the entire reason you are still alive.
The son died in December 2011,
of a heart attack on his personal armoured train at the age of 69.
The succession this time went not to his eldest son, who had embarrassed the family in 2001
by being caught trying to enter Japan on a fake passport in order to visit Tokyo Disneyland,
but to his third son, who was 27 or 28 years old at the time, depending on which of several
conflicting birth dates you trust. The young new leader had been educated in Switzerland under
an assumed name during the 1990s, where he had reportedly been an ordinary if somewhat
sullen teenager, whose classmates remembered mostly that he loved basketball and was difficult
to get to know. He returned to his country, was rapidly given an array of senior titles in his
late 20s, and assumed full power within weeks of his father's death. There was speculation in foreign
capitals that he might prove to be a reformer, that his exposure to Switzerland might have given him
different ideas about how a country could be run. This speculation, in retrospect, contained almost
everything you need to know about how foreign analysts tend to misread these situations. People who
grow up inside a dynastic system in which their family has been worshipped as semi-divine
for three generations do not, on the whole, returned from boarding school with quaint notions
about constitutional reform. What the new leader did instead was consolidate power with a ruthlessness
that surprised even his most pessimistic observers. His uncle, who had been considered the regulating
influence on the young man during his apprenticeship, was arrested.
in 2013, denounced in the official press in language so theatrical, it briefly produced
unintended comedy abroad and executed within days of his arrest. His half-brother, the same one who
had once tried to enter Japan on the fake passport, and had been living in exile in Macau, was
assassinated at Kuala Lumpur Airport in 2017 by two women, who, according to the subsequent
investigation, had been recruited under the impression they were participating in a prank television
show. They wiped a chemical agent on his face. He died within 20 minutes. The young women,
who appear to have genuinely believed they were filming a comedy segment, were eventually released
after lengthy legal proceedings during which the actual organisers of the operation departed
from Malaysia at considerable speed. Under the third leader, the nuclear and missile programs
accelerated dramatically. Larger devices were tested. Long-range missiles capable of reaching most
of the world were demonstrated. The country conducted what it claimed was a hydrogen bomb test in 2017,
producing a seismic signal large enough to suggest the claim was at least partially credible.
International negotiations went through several theatrical phases involving foreign leaders,
dramatic summits, walkout exits, and warm correspondence by letter. But the underlying
weapons program continued to advance regardless of what the surrounding diplomatic music happened
to be doing. By the early 2020s, the
The country had effectively achieved the status it had been pursuing for three decades.
It was no longer a state that hoped, someday, to develop a credible nuclear deterrent.
It was a state that had one.
The reason this matters for our story tonight, beyond the obvious geopolitical implications,
is that it represents the perfect test case for a particular theory of regime survival.
Throughout this documentary, we have been watching dictators fall.
They have died in bunkers, on bedroom floors, in court,
courtrooms, on battlefields, in jungle huts. The question of why this particular family in this
particular country has so far avoided every one of those endings is among the most studied puzzles
in modern political analysis, and the most parsimonious answer, is that they have spent
decades acquiring a single category of insurance no other regime in our story possessed. They
watched what happened to leaders who did not have that insurance. They drew their conclusions,
and they organise the entire economic and political life of their country
around the project of never sharing those leaders' fates.
Daily life inside the country, for ordinary citizens not assigned to camps,
is shaped by an apparatus of monitoring whose intensity is genuinely difficult to convey
to people who have not experienced it.
The unit of social organisation is something called the Inman Ban,
a neighbourhood association of usually 20 to 40 households
headed by a designated leader who is responsible for knowing what is happening inside each home in her area.
Visitors must be registered.
Overnight guests must be reported.
Domestic disputes are sometimes mediated, but they are also, more importantly, recorded.
Radio sold in the country are designed to receive only state-approved frequencies and are subject to inspection.
Television's, similarly, can in principle be tuned only to state channels,
though in practice the rise of smuggled USB drives containing foreign films
has produced a parallel underground media culture that the regime has been trying,
with limited success to suppress for years.
Possession of foreign content is a serious crime.
Watching a South Korean drama in some cases can result in execution.
Religious practice, in the conventional sense,
has been functionally extinct in the country for several generations,
though small underground communities of Christians are believed to exist in various provinces,
surviving by passing down their faith in absolute secrecy from parent to child.
There are reportedly Bibles being smuggled across the Chinese border,
often disguised as ordinary printed material,
and discovered Bibles can carry capital penalties.
The state itself, however, has filled the religious vacuum quite thoroughly.
The leader's birthplace is a pilgrimage site.
The bodies of the previous two leaders are preserved in glass coffins in a vast palace in the capital.
New brides traditionally place their wedding bouquets.
at the bases of the leader's statues before going to their reception. A national badge bearing the
founder's images is worn over the heart at all times during work or public appearances. To an outside
observer, almost every formal feature of organised religion is present in the system, except that the
divinity in question lives in a palace and orders deliveries of foreign cheese. The economic situation
today is, in some ways, better than it was during the famine years of the 1990s, and in some
ways worse than the official numbers suggest. The capital itself has visibly modernised over the past
two decades. New apartment blocks have gone up. Smartphones, of a domestically manufactured variety
with limited connectivity, are now widely owned by capital residents. Restaurants have appeared.
There is an elite class that lives reasonably well, drives imported cars and shops in stores that
stock foreign goods. Outside the capital, however, the situation deteriorates rapidly. Rural
Rural areas continue to suffer chronic food insecurity. Energy shortages mean that many homes have
heat for only a few hours a day, even in winter. Hospitals operate without basic medications.
The infrastructure built in the 1960s and 1970s by Soviet and Eastern European technicians is
decaying, and the regime lacks both the funds and the technical capacity to replace much of it.
The country runs increasingly on patchwork repairs and the diminishing memory of how things
were originally supposed to work. The defectors who managed to leave, usually by making the
dangerous crossing into China, and then travelling overland through Southeast Asia to South Korea,
number in the tens of thousands over the past 20 years. Their accounts taken together.
Form perhaps the most extensive body of testimony about life inside the regime that has ever been
collected. Patterns emerge. Most defectors did not leave because of ideological objections to the system.
Most did not, in fact, even know that the system was distinctive in any global sense.
They left because their family was hungry, because a relative had been arrested,
because a smuggling business had collapsed, because they had been caught watching something
they were not supposed to watch.
The political dimensions of their flight in many cases only became clear to them once they
were already abroad, and discovered, sometimes with considerable shock, what their lives had actually
looked like from the outside.
What strikes researchers and journalists who interviewed affected?
most often is how loyal many of them remain, even after escape, to certain elements of the system
they fled. The leader's family in particular frequently retains a kind of residual emotional grip
even on people who have personally suffered terribly under the regime. Children who have grown up
reciting the founder's biography for 15 years do not, it turns out, simply discard those associations
because they have crossed a river. Some defectors describe years of internal struggle before they can
bring themselves to speak ill of the leader they were taught to revere as a small child.
This phenomenon, which psychologists who specialize in coercive group dynamics have studied in other
contexts, is one of the deepest sources of the regime's longevity. It does not need to convince
its citizens by force every day. It convinced them, very thoroughly, when they were five years old,
and the convincing has in many cases stuck. There is one further dimension of the regime's
operation that has gradually come into view over the past two decades, and it deserves a brief
description because it illustrates how the system finances itself in a world that has, on paper,
isolated it from normal commerce. The country runs an extensive overseas labour program,
sending workers under government contract to construction sites, logging camps, restaurants,
and factories in various foreign countries, primarily in Russia, China and parts of the Middle East.
The workers, typically men in their 20s and 30s, are selected for political reliability, separated from their families, and assigned to projects under the supervision of state minders.
The wages they earn are paid not directly to the worker, but to a state account, with the worker himself receiving a small fraction at the end of his contract.
The arrangement, which is functionally indistinguishable from indentured servitude under any reasonable definition,
has been a major source of hard currency for the regime, generating an estimated several hundred million dollars annually at its peak.
International sanctions have targeted this practice in recent years, with mixed success.
In addition, the regime operates a parallel set of cyber operations that have produced by some estimates,
billions of dollars over the past decade through theft of cryptocurrency from foreign exchanges.
The teams responsible are largely based outside the country, often in Chinese border cities,
and are recruited from the country's small but technically sophisticated computer science programs.
The targets have included financial institutions, gaming companies,
and increasingly the booming cryptocurrency sector,
where the regulatory environment is loose enough to make recovery of stolen funds genuinely difficult.
The fact that one of the most isolated countries in the world has become a significant actor
in 21st century financial cybercrime is, in its own way, a testament to the strange creativity
that pure necessity can produce. When the front door is closed and the windows are sealed,
eventually you start digging tunnels. The current leader is, as of this recording in his early
40s, he has now been in power for somewhat over a decade. Recent satellite analysis and
intelligence assessments suggest that he is preparing his own children for eventual succession,
with his daughter, a girl who has appeared in increasingly prominent public roles since her early teens,
considered by many analysts to be a possible candidate.
If that line of succession holds, the dynasty that began with the Soviet airplane in 1945
will be approaching the centenary of its founding, having governed three generations of Koreans
through famine, isolation, and the strangest experiment in modern statecraft any country has ever attempted on its own population.
There is at this moment no obvious mechanism that would cause the system to fall.
The army is loyal because its senior officers benefit personally from loyalty.
The civilian elite is loyal because the alternative is unimaginable to them.
The population is contained because the camps work, the surveillance works, the propaganda works, and the borders are sealed.
The neighbours that surround the country are unwilling to provoke a collapse
because a collapse would produce refugee flows and security risks that no government in the region wants to deal with.
So the system continues. The lights stay off, the portraits stay clean, the children memorize their lessons.
This is the only chapter in tonight's documentary that has no death scene at the end, no courtroom, no exile, no graceful retirement to a fortified villa in Saudi Arabia.
The man we've been describing is not yet a historical figure. He is a person you could, in principle, see on the news next week.
His decisions are still being made. His paperwork is still being filed. His prisoners are still in their
barracks tonight. Future historians, presumably, will write the conclusion to this section of
their books at some point in the future, but tonight, sitting here together in the dark, we have
no ending to give you. Sometimes the most useful thing a story can do is admit, honestly, that it
does not yet know how it ends. And as we move on from this still unfolding case to the next
chapters of our journey, we are returning to figures who, mercifully, did at least eventually stop.
Whether the world chose to hold them accountable for stopping is another matter entirely,
and one we will come to shortly.
From the closed and unfinished story of the Korean Peninsula,
our journey now turns south and west, across two oceans and several thousand miles,
to a country that, in the early 1960s,
was being talked about in international travel magazines
as one of the most beautiful and promising places on the African continent.
It was sometimes called the Pearl of Africa,
a phrase coined decades earlier by a visiting British podcast,
politician who was struck by the lakes, the green hills, the temperate climate, and the fertile
soil that stretched across the equatorial highlands. The country had Lake Victoria on one side,
the Great Rift Valley to the west, snow-cap mountains in the east, and a population that,
by the standards of the surrounding region, lived reasonably well, ate reasonably well, and educated
its children at a rate that was the envy of much of the post-colonial world. Within roughly a decade,
would be remembered for something else entirely, which is one of the more disturbing examples in
modern history of how quickly a state can be hollowed out from the inside by a single person.
Our subject for this chapter was born in 1925, give or take a year. The exact date was never
settled, partly because rural birth registration in his region was casual at best, and partly because
he himself gave at least four different birth years across various official biographies during his
lifetime. He grew up in the northwestern corner of the country, in a small village in Kakwa Territory,
and his early childhood was by any reasonable measure difficult. His parents separated when he was
small, and he was raised primarily by his mother, who supported the family through a combination
of subsistist and her work as an herbalist and traditional healer. By all surviving accounts,
he received minimal formal schooling, possibly no more than a few years to local mission school,
and his literacy in any language remained limited throughout his life.
This is a detail worth holding on to because it would later become a kind of shield.
Whenever foreign observers tried to make sense of his behaviour,
the assumption that he was simply uneducated,
simply a man out of his depth, repeatedly led them to underestimate him in ways that proved catastrophic.
He joined the colonial army of his country in 1946 at the age of about 21,
as a recruit in what was then known as the King's African Rifles.
The British had been recruiting locally for decades to maintain order across their East African territories,
and the army was structured along strictly racial lines,
with British officers giving orders and African enlisted men carrying them out.
For a young man from a poor village with no other obvious career path,
the military offered something close to upward mobility.
The pay was modest but reliable, the uniforms were impressive,
and there were opportunities for promotion within the limits of what the colonial system would tolerate.
He was tall, physically powerful, and over six feet four inches in height.
He took up boxing as a recreational activity, and within a few years became the heavyweight
champion of his country, a title he held for almost a decade.
The boxing career, as it would turn out, contributed to a public image that he later cultivated
very deliberately, that of the genial sportsman, the larger than life personality, the man
whose first instinct in any encounter was to throw a friendly punch.
His military service during the 1950s included deployments against various colonial uprisings in East Africa,
most notably the Mao insurgency in neighbouring Kenya.
The conduct of the colonial counter-insurgency in those years was, by any measure, extraordinarily harsh,
and several internal British military reports later raised concerns about the methods used by certain African units,
including specifically the unit our subjects served in.
He was reprimanded at least once for the treatment of detainees during operation.
in Northern Kenya in 1962. But the matter was not pursued, partly because the British administration
was preparing to leave the region anyway, and partly because losing experienced African officers
at that particular moment was considered politically inconvenient. He was accordingly promoted
rather than disciplined. He was, in fact, promoted repeatedly, becoming one of only two African
officers commissioned by the British before independence, despite having no formal military
education and a documented record of disciplinary problems. The reasoning behind these promotions
viewed with the benefit of hindsight was that the departing colonial administration wanted to leave
the army in the hands of officers who were considered loyal to the British, regardless of their
other qualities. Loyalty, it turned out, was a slightly elastic term. The country gained its
independence in October 1962, and the new government was led by a politically sophisticated,
mission-educated former teacher, who served as the first prime minister and later as president.
For the first several years of independence, our subjects served as a senior officer in the new
national army, rising eventually to the rank of brigadier and then-major general, and acquiring
a reputation as a useful, if somewhat unpredictable, military man. His relationship with the
civilian leadership was complicated. There were rumours, never quite proven at the time,
that he had been involved in irregular financial transactions
during operations in the Eastern Congo,
including some involving smuggled gold and ivory.
The President eventually became sufficiently concerned
about these stories that, in late 1970,
he made plans to remove our subject from his position
upon returning from a Commonwealth Conference in Singapore.
The General got wind of this.
On January 25, 1971, while the President was out of the country,
the army moved.
The takeover was, by the standards of military coups, almost embarrassingly easy.
There was scattered fighting in the capital that lasted a few hours,
several dozen casualties on each side,
and by morning the radio was broadcasting an announcement from the new leader,
explaining that the previous government had been removed for the good of the nation.
The international reaction was, in some quarters surprisingly enthusiastic,
crowds in the capital, many of whom had genuine grievances against the previous administration,
came out to celebrate. Foreign newspapers, including several major Western ones,
published broadly favourable assessments of the change. The British government, which had developed
a difficult relationship with the previous president over economic policy, sent a quiet
message of cautious welcome through diplomatic channels. Israel, which had cultivated a working
relationship with our subject during his earlier military training there, also expressed support.
The new ruler, by his own account, had no political program of any kind.
He had simply seized power because he was about to be removed, and now he was figuring out what to do with it.
What he did with it in the early months was to accumulate titles. This was not a metaphorical accumulation.
He awarded himself, in formal ceremonies often broadcast on national radio, an extraordinarily long string of military and honorary distinctions.
He became field marshal, despite the fact that the country had no real strategic need for a field marshal.
He became His Excellency.
He became, by his own decree, a doctor of laws, despite never having attended a law school or any other school past primary level, with a title bestowed on him by an obliging local university, whose administrators understood the consequences of refusal.
He became the conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in general, and his own country in particular, despite the British Empire having already departed the country nearly a decade earlier and having never been conquered by anyone.
He became Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Sea,
a title that, among other things,
briefly perplexed the protocol officers at foreign ministries
who had to figure out how to address diplomatic correspondence to him
without appearing either disrespectful or insane.
The full list of his self-awarded titles when read aloud took roughly two minutes.
International journalists, particularly those in the West,
found the whole performance enormously entertaining.
Profile pieces and glossy magazines marvelled at his colourful
personality. Late-night comedians made jokes about his pronouncements. He was treated for the first
several years of his rule as a kind of national mascot, a delightful eccentric, a clown.
This is, in retrospect, one of the more painful examples in modern journalism of how badly a story
can be misread when reporters go looking for personality and miss the politics. While foreign
correspondents were filing dispatches about the leader's outfits and his colourful turns of
phrase, the security apparatus of the country was being systematically reorganised.
Two intelligence services were established in the early 1970s, both of which operated outside
any meaningful judicial oversight. The State Research Bureau, despite its bland academic-sounding name,
was the principal political police of the new regime. Its headquarters, an unremarkable office
building in the capital, contained interrogation facilities in its basement levels that operated
continuously for the duration of the regime. Survivors who eventually testified before international
inquiries described in extensive detail the routines of those rooms. The total number of people
who passed through that building during the seven years that followed has never been fully
established. But the number who never came back out is generally placed in the tens of thousands.
In August 1972, the leader announced a decision that would, more than any single act of his rule,
define his legacy in economic terms.
The country at that time had a substantial South Asian minority population,
descended primarily from migrants who had arrived during the colonial era
to work on railway construction, and who had subsequently settled into commercial activities of
every kind. They ran shops, factories, banks, transportation companies, sugar plantations,
and a large portion of the country's professional services. They were citizens, in many cases
for two or three generations with no other home.
Roughly 80,000 of them had built their entire lives in the country.
The leader announced that they had 90 days to leave.
The reasons given were a combination of economic nationalism, religious symbolism,
and, according to the leader's own account,
a dream he had recently had in which a divine voice had told him to expel them.
He may or may not have actually had this dream.
He certainly said he had.
What followed was an organised expropriation of an entire,
entire community within three months. Bank accounts were frozen, businesses were transferred to government
appointees, most of them army officers and political loyalists who had no commercial experience
whatsoever. Departing families were permitted to take only what they could carry, with limits
on the amount of currency they could remove. They were searched at the airport, sometimes humiliatingly,
with jewellery and valuables confiscated on various pretexts. Britain, where most of the
Most of them held some form of legal connection due to colonial-era citizenship arrangements,
accepted roughly half of them as refugees, and they went on over the following decades.
To establish themselves in the British economy with such conspicuous success
that their story is now studied in business schools as a textbook case of refugee economic integration.
The country they left behind, however, did not fare nearly as well.
Within months, the businesses they had run were failing.
shelves emptied, factories produced nothing, sugar production collapsed, then coffee production,
then textile production, then cement, then construction, then almost everything else.
The Pearl of Africa, which had been a net food exporter at Independence, was importing basic
goods within two years and could not afford to pay for the imports.
Inflation, which had been negligible at the start of the regime, climbed into triple digits,
The currency, which had been one of the strongest in East Africa, became effectively worthless on international markets.
The leader's response to this economic disaster was characteristic.
He blamed foreign conspiracies, declared that the difficulties were the work of saboteurs
and continued to award himself titles.
When confronted with shortages of essential goods, he made a series of public announcements
about the noble role of self-sufficiency in the national character,
while privately importing whiskey, watches and luxury foods for his immediate circle.
There is a documented incident from 1975 in which a senior British civil servant in London
asked to comment on the latest pronouncement from the leader,
responded with a now famous remark that the man was clearly not stable,
but not, in his estimation, technically a fool.
The civil servant was disciplined for the comment.
The remark, however, contained a real insight.
The leader was not running the country well, but he was running himself well, in the narrow sense of remaining in power, and the techniques he was using were not random.
The principal technique was fear, applied selectively and unpredictably. He surrounded himself with a personal guard recruited from his own ethnic group and several allied groups, and these units were given a degree of autonomy that effectively placed them beyond any law.
They could enter homes, seize people, requisition vehicles, and dispose of property.
as they saw fit. Other units of the army were periodically purged, with senior officers from different
ethnic groups arrested, demoted or simply disappeared, often in waves that followed real or imagined
coup attempts. The pattern produced a deeply suspicious internal culture in which no senior official
could be confident of his position from one week to the next, and in which the leader himself was
the only stable point of reference. Loyalty accordingly flowed entirely upward. The principal
political activity of the senior officer class by the mid-1970s was the daily performance of
devotion to the man at the top. The killings throughout this period followed several distinct patterns.
The most visible were the high-profile detentions of public figures who had, at various points,
irritated the leadership. The country's most respected Anglican Archbishop, a man widely admired
for his moral courage, was arrested in February 1977, along with two cabinet ministers. They were taken
to the security headquarters and never returned.
The official explanation, broadcast on national radio,
was that they had died in a car accident while attempting to escape custody.
The vehicle in question was helpfully provided to the press for inspection,
complete with manufactured evidence of an accident.
The international community expressed concern.
Major Powers wrote protest letters.
The leader continued to host receptions for visiting diplomats,
photographed shaking hands and laughed.
with foreign dignitaries who had that morning signed letters condemning his actions in their official
capacities. Below the level of high-profile cases, however, was a much larger pattern of
disappearances directed at ordinary people. Truck drivers were stopped at checkpoints and never
seen again, because they happened to be carrying goods someone wanted. University students were
arrested for participating in demonstrations or simply for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Members of certain ethnic groups associated with the previous government
were systematically purged from the Army and Civil Service in the early years,
with many of them removed rather than merely dismissed.
Professionals from the legal community fled the country in waves throughout the mid-1970s,
leaving the courts effectively non-functional and the prisons increasingly outside any kind of oversight.
The pattern of disappearances became, eventually almost banal in its routineness.
people left for work and did not come home. Families inquired and were told to stop asking questions.
Bodies surfaced occasionally in Lake Victoria, where the lake's wildlife performed a service
that was no doubt appreciated by those responsible for not being asked too many forensic questions.
The total death toll attributable to the regime is generally placed by serious historians and human rights
researchers between 300,000 and 500,000 people over a period of roughly seven years.
The wide range reflects the genuine,
difficulty of counting. Many disappearances were not recorded. Many of the missing were never
accounted for. Surviving family members, often themselves at risk, frequently did not file
reports during the years in question, and post-regime efforts to compile a comprehensive accounting
have been hampered by the destruction of records, the death of witnesses, and the simple passage
of time. Per capita, this was one of the most lethal regimes in post-colonial Africa, and the cost
was inflicted on a population of, at the time, roughly 12 million people. Almost every family
in the country, by the end of the 1970s, had lost at least one relative or close friend. Most
lost more. What is striking when you read foreign coverage from the period is how slowly
the international press caught up to what was actually happening on the ground. The leader was,
throughout the early and middle 1970s, an extraordinarily active media personality. He gave press
conferences at which he made deliberately provocative announcements designed to generate headlines.
He sent telegrams of advice to foreign leaders, including a particularly memorable one to the
British Prime Minister, offering to organise a charitable appeal for the difficulties
Britain was apparently experiencing. He proposed himself, only half-jokingly, as a mediator
in various international conflicts. He praised various controversial historical figures,
made statements about ethnic groups that any reasonable editor today would simply refer to
refused to print, and explained that the suffering of past minorities had not, in his view,
been entirely unjustified. These pronouncements were reported by and large, in tones ranging
from amused to mildly disapproving, and there is a kind of uncomfortable archive of magazine
covers from the era depicting him as a smiling exotic figure, surrounded by visual flourishes
that, looking back, seemed genuinely difficult to explain. By the late 1970s, the picture
had darkened considerably, but for years the running joke about his eccentricity had functioned as
a kind of cover for the actual operations being conducted in those basement rooms. There is one episode
from the middle of the regime that became internationally famous, and that deserves a brief mention
because it illustrates how entangled the leader had become with various foreign causes and how
that entanglement eventually backfired on him. In June 1976, an Air France flight traveling from
Tel Aviv to Paris was hijacked by a group of Palestinian and German radicals and diverted,
after a refueling stop, to the country's main international airport at Entebbe, a complex
of buildings on a peninsula extending into Lake Victoria. The leader, who had cultivated
relationships with various Arab governments, after breaking with Israel in 1972, welcomed the hijackers,
allowed them to use the old terminal as a holding facility, and reportedly visited the hostages
personally to assure them that he was looking after their well-being. The hijackers separated the
passengers by national origin, releasing the non-Israelis after several days and continuing to hold
the remaining hostages along with the flight crew who refused to leave. What followed, in the early
hours of July 4th, was one of the most audacious hostage rescue operations in modern military history.
Israeli special forces flew over 2,000 miles in transport aircraft, landed in darkness on the
airport runway, drove a black Mercedes onto the tarmac to mimic the leader's own motorcade
as a diversion and stormed the terminal. The operation lasted under an hour. The hostages were freed,
the hijackers were neutralised and the Israeli force took off again before any meaningful response
could be organised. Several of the leader's soldiers were killed in the firefight. Dozens of his fighter
aircraft were destroyed on the ground to prevent pursuit, and one of the hostages, an elderly woman
who had been hospitalized in the capital before the raid, was murdered in her hospital bed in the
days afterward by security personnel acting on orders. The leader was, by all accounts, personally
humiliated by the operation, which had punctured his image of invincibility within his own country
and made him a figure of international ridicule on a level he had not previously experienced.
Several officers associated with the airport's defence were executed in the weeks that followed
on the apparent reasoning that they should have prevented the impossible. His downfall,
when it came was not the result of any internal political reckoning. It was the result of a strategic
miscalculation against a foreign neighbour. In late 1978, for reasons that remained somewhat unclear
and may have been related to internal army factionalism that he wanted to distract attention from,
he ordered an invasion of part of neighbouring Tanzania. The Tanzanian leader, an unusually principled
figure who had spent the entire decade quietly accumulating moral authority on the international stage,
responded by mobilising his own army and a force of exiled opposition members from our subject's own country.
The Tanzanian counter-offensive moved rapidly across the border in early 1979
and was met with surprisingly little resistance. The leader's army, which had become accustomed to easy
domestic operations against unarmed civilians, performed poorly against a force that fought back.
By April 1979 the capital had fallen. The leader fled in a helicopter, accompanied by six,
several of his wives, his children, and what remained of his personal entourage.
He went first to Libya, where the leader of that country welcomed him for a few months
before tiring of him, and then to Saudi Arabia, where the royal family agreed to provide
him with permanent residence on certain conditions that included, among other things,
that he keep his mouth shut and stay out of politics.
There is one further dimension of his domestic life that is worth a brief description,
because it shows how the disorder of his rule extended even into his closest personal arrangements.
He had at least six wives, possibly more, depending on which informal relationships you choose to count,
and he fathered somewhere between 30 and 40 children, again with a margin of uncertainty
that reflects how casually these matters were recorded.
He divorced three of his wives publicly in 1974, announcing the dissolutions on national television
and providing reasons that range from political incompatibility to allegations of various forms of disloyalty.
One of these former wives, a woman who had been the mother of several of his children,
was found dead in unusual circumstances later that same year,
in a case that the authorities of the time declined to investigate seriously.
Several of his other wives lived in fear of him personally,
and there are accounts from defectors and surviving family members of considerable domestic violence,
of women being beaten and threatened, of children of,
being raised in an atmosphere of permanent uncertainty about which adult would be in favour
with their father from one week to the next. The point of recounting this is not voyeurism,
but observation. The same pattern of arbitrary cruelty that he applied to the country at large
was applied in concentrated form inside his own household. The man who could not be trusted
with a state was also, predictably, not someone who could be trusted with a marriage.
The conditions of his exile were, by any reasonable measure, remarkably comfortable.
He was given a series of villas and apartments in the city of Jeddah on the Red Sea coast,
with a generous monthly stipend, several servants, and a fleet of vehicles.
He had access to high-quality medical care.
His children attended international schools.
He was permitted to receive visitors, including, occasionally, journalists who tracked him down for interviews
in which he insisted, with apparent sincerity, that the stories about his rule had been wildly exaggerated,
and that the people of his country missed him dearly, and would well.
welcome him back if only the current government would allow it. He took up a number of hobbies,
including swimming, fishing, and the systematic accumulation of expensive food. By his own admission
in one of these later interviews, he had gained considerable weight during his exile. He took
religious instruction during these years and converted formally to a more rigorous practice
of his faith. Though the depth of his theological commitment was, his hosts later suggested
with notable diplomatic restraint, somewhat variable. He died in August.
in a hospital in Jeddah at the age of approximately 78. The cause of death was officially
given as kidney failure complicated by other organ problems. He had been in declining health for some
time and his family had reportedly attempted to negotiate with the government of his original
country to allow him to return for medical treatment, an offer which had been declined for
what were, given the circumstances, very obvious reasons. He was buried in Jeddah, in a quiet
ceremony attended by family members and a small number of dignitaries. There was no extradition
request. There was no international tribunal. There were no proceedings of any kind during his lifetime
to determine what should be done with him for the actions of the seven years he spent in power.
Several of his senior associates were eventually prosecuted in his original country,
in the years after his fall, but the principal architect of the regime simply lived out his
last 24 years in comfortable retirement in a wealthy Arab city.
growing fat on imported food, receiving occasional journalists, and giving them long rambling answers
about how misunderstood he had been. He insisted, until the end of his life, that the stories
about his rule had been exaggerated, and the people of his country missed him. The country he left
behind has had a long road back. The economy, after his departure, took roughly two decades to
return to anything approaching the level it had achieved before independence. The professional class,
which had been driven into exile or removed, had to be rebuilt almost from scratch.
The army, which had become effectively a private criminal organisation under his rule,
required years of careful reorganisation before it could be considered a normal national institution.
The subsequent political history of the country has been turbulent and not always free of its own difficulties,
and the broader scars of the period are still visible in conversations among older citizens
who remember those years personally.
But the country is there.
The pearl is slowly being polished again.
What this story leaves us with, beyond the obvious lessons about media credulity and the dangers
of treating violent eccentrics as colourful entertainment, is the additional point that the
international system, as it existed in the second half of the 20th century, contained almost
no effective mechanism for holding leaders of this kind accountable while they were alive,
and only intermittent ones for holding them accountable after they fell.
there were treaties on paper, it is on...
There were declarations and conventions and resolutions,
but there was, in practice, very little to prevent a man with control of an army
from doing roughly whatever he wanted within his own borders,
provided he kept his foreign relations sufficiently lubricated
and avoided any provocations severe enough to draw a serious response.
He understood this, and he operated accordingly.
He flew to the desert, he ate his food, he died in his bed.
And on the next leg of our journey, we will meet a man who was, in some respects, his much more sophisticated counterpart.
A leader who built a more efficient machine of control ran a far larger country,
and was eventually pulled out of a hole in the ground by the soldiers of a foreign army,
in one of the very few cases in our story where international pressure actually produced a courtroom,
rather than a comfortable retirement.
The man we're about to discuss represents, in the long arc of our story something of a transitional figure.
He combined the cult of personality of our earlier subjects with the bureaucratic precision of others,
ran one of the most strategically important countries in the Middle East for over two decades,
and became, in his final act, one of the very few leaders in this entire documentary
actually pulled out of his hiding place by foreign soldiers and put on trial in a courtroom,
rather than escorted to a comfortable retirement on a beach somewhere.
Whether the eventual trial produced anything resembling justice,
and whether the war that brought it about was worth the price the country,
are questions that historians will probably still be arguing about a century from now.
He was born in 1937, in a small village near the Tigris River in central Iraq,
into a family that, by the dry standards of the rural countryside in that era,
was barely holding together.
His father either died before he was born or simply abandoned the family,
depending on which biography you trust,
and his mother, who was either pregnant or had recently given birth at the time,
found herself raising a son in conditions of considerable hardship.
The boy was eventually sent to live with a maternal uncle in a nearby town, where he received some basic education.
And from his uncle, who was a former army officer with strong nationalist convictions and a substantial bookshelf,
he absorbed the political ideas that would shape the rest of his life.
By his early teens, he was already involved in the kind of nationalist youth politics that,
in the Iraq of the 1950s, was the natural occupation of any ambitious provincial boy with a chip on his shoulder
and a hostility toward the British and the Iraqi monarchy they had placed on the throne.
He joined the Ba'ath Party as a teenager and rose through its ranks during a period of remarkable political instability.
Iraq in the late 1950s and early 1960s, it was a country where coups and counter-coups occurred at the rate of roughly one every two or three years,
where senior officials were regularly executed in the streets,
and where the actual government changed so frequently that printing official letterhead with the current names on it
had become a slightly speculative activity.
He was involved, at the age of about 22,
in a failed assassination attempt on the Prime Minister of the Time,
an event that produced one of the most carefully cultivated personal myths of his later career.
The official version told later in school textbooks
involved a dramatic escape across the desert,
a self-removed bullet from his leg,
and a heroic swim across the Tigris to safety.
The actual operation was, by most accounts of the surviving party,
participants, a botched ambush in which his role was relatively minor, and during which he sustained
a relatively minor wound. Both versions, the heroic and the modest, served his interest at different
points. He kept the heroic version on the official record. By the time the Ba'ath Party seized power
decisively in 1968, he was a senior figure in the party's internal security apparatus,
working closely with his older cousin, who became the new president. For the next 11 years,
our subject occupied the role of Vice President,
which in the Iraqi context of the time
meant something quite different
from the largely ceremonial position
the title carries in most political systems.
He was the man who actually ran the security services.
He was the man who controlled the personnel files.
He was the man who knew where the documents were kept.
The President, a man considerably older than him,
gradually became more of a figurehead,
while the actual machinery of state
was increasingly oriented around the Vice President's personal authority.
By the late 1970s, the situation was clear to everyone in the senior leadership,
including the president himself, who eventually agreed, under what was officially described
as gentle persuasion, to retire on grounds of ill health.
On July 16, 1979, the transition was formally announced.
Our subject was now president.
What happened six days later is one of the more theatrical examples of consolidation of power
in the modern political record, and it deserves some careful description because it tells you
almost everything you need to know about how this particular regime would operate for the next 24
years. On July 22, 1979, the senior leadership of the Ba'ath Party, several hundred of the
most important officials in the country gathered in a conference hall in the capital for what had
been announced as an extraordinary meeting. The new president took the stage. He spoke for some
time about the dangers facing the revolution. He revealed, with apparent reluctance, that a conspiracy
had been uncovered within the party itself. He then announced that the names of the conspirators would
now be read aloud. A senior official, who had himself been arrested and broken under interrogation
in the preceding days, was brought to the podium and proceeded to recite a list of names. As each name
was called, the named individual was led out of the hall by armed guards. Some wept openly,
Some attempted to protest their loyalty.
Some sat in stunned silence as their colleagues looked away.
By the time the recitation was complete, 68 names had been called.
The president throughout this performance sat at the front of the room,
smoking a cigar and watching with apparent calm.
What followed compounded the horror in a way that was,
considered as a political manoeuvre, almost diabolically elegant.
The party officials, who remained in the hall,
having watched their colleagues be removed,
were then informed that they would themselves participate,
participate in the punishment. Members of the Revolutionary Command Council, the country's highest
political body, were assigned to firing squads composed of fellow senior party members. The men who
had not been named would be the men who carried out the sentences against the men who had.
The intent was clear and was understood to be clear. Every senior official in the country
was now, by personal participation, implicated in what had happened. There would be no clean
hands, there would be no innocent witnesses. The price of survival was complicity, and complicity once
given could never be taken back. Recordings of portions of the meeting, including the moment of the
readings, eventually circulated and have been studied since by political scientists,
criminologists and other specialists, interested in how loyalty can be manufactured under conditions
of extreme coercion. The meeting was, in its own grim terms, a masterpiece of administration. The
country he now controlled was, in many respects, an enormously promising one.
Iraq in 1979 had the second largest proven oil reserves in the world, a well-educated
middle class, a functioning university system, a literate population by regional standards,
and a strategic position at the crossroads of the Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean.
Oil revenues had increased dramatically through the 1970s, and the previous decade had produced
visible improvements in infrastructure, healthcare and education across most of the country.
Baghdad in the late 1970s was a city of broad avenues and modern hotels, with a thriving
cultural life and a level of personal freedom for women, in particular, that compared favourably
with most of its regional neighbours. Whatever else can be said about the period, it was not a
backward country, and the man at the top inherited a state with considerably more functional
capacity than most of the figures we have already discussed. He chose to spend that capacity on a series
of decisions that, even by the standards of our story, were difficult to fit inside any rational
accounting. The first major one came in September 1980, roughly 14 months after he had taken
full power, when he ordered the invasion of neighbouring Iran. The reasoning, insofar as it can be
reconstructed, involved a combination of border disputes, fears about the influence of the recent Iranian
on Iraq's own substantial Shia population, and what appears to have been a personal calculation
that the chaotic post-revolutionary state of the Iranian armed forces presented an opportunity
to seize valuable territory and oil-producing regions before the new government in Tehran had time
to organise itself. The calculation, as calculations of this kind tend to be, was wrong in almost
every dimension that mattered. The war that followed lasted against all expectations, nearly eight years,
years, the Iranian armed forces, despite their initial disarray, recovered far more quickly
than Iraqi planners had anticipated. The vast Iranian population mobilized through religious
appeals and a system that dispatched waves of young volunteers in essentially suicidal infantry
assaults, proved willing to absorb casualties at rates that the smaller Iraqi army simply could
not sustain in a war of attrition. Within two years, the Iraqi advance had been reversed. By the mid-1980s,
the war had settled into a grinding stalemate along what was effectively the original border,
with both sides absorbing horrific casualties in successive offensives that achieved little.
The Iraqi government, increasingly desperate, turned to the use of chemical weapons,
deploying nerve agents and mustard gas against Iranian troop concentrations,
and eventually against Iraqi civilian populations considered insufficiently loyal.
The behaviour of the international community during this period is one of the more uncomfortable footnotes
in late 20th century diplomatic history.
Both the Iranian government and the Iraqi government were, for various reasons,
considered unfriendly by most major Western powers.
The general preference, articulated in private memos and gradually inferred from public
behaviour, was that the war should continue indefinitely,
ideally exhausting both sides without producing a clear victor.
Western governments and several Eastern bloc countries provided various forms of dual-use technology,
intelligence support and unofficial weapons transfers to one or both sides during the conflict.
American intelligence agencies in particular shared satellite imagery with the Iraqi military
that helped target Iranian troop concentrations, including in some cases targets subsequently
attacked with chemical weapons. The full extent of these support relationships only emerged years later
through declassified documents and academic research, but the broad pattern was visible to attentive
observers at the time. The official Western position was condemnation of the use of chemical weapons.
The actual Western behaviour was substantially less consistent. By the time the war ended in 1988,
somewhere between 500,000 and 1 million people on both sides had been killed, including a substantial
number of Iraqi conscripts who had been thrown into human wave defensive positions by their own
commanders. While the war was still in its closing phase, the regime undertook what is generally
consider the worst single campaign of its entire history directed against the Kurdish population
of northern Iraq. The Kurds, an ethnic minority of perhaps four to five million people in Iraq at
the time, lived primarily in the mountainous regions along the Iranian and Turkish borders,
and various Kurdish political movements had taken advantage of the war to assert greater autonomy
in the north and to receive support from across the Iranian frontier.
The regime's response, organized under the formal designation of the Anfarl operations,
ran from early 1986 through the summer of 1989
and was directed by a senior official
whose nickname among the Kurds eventually became
in tribute to his preferred methods
a reference to the chemical agents he employed.
The campaign systematically depopulated rural Kurdish areas
destroying somewhere between 4,000 and 5,000 villages,
forcibly relocating the surviving population
and killing an estimated 100,000 to 182,000 people
in mass executions,
deportations and direct attacks. Children were separated from their parents, in some cases permanently.
Entire villages were buried alive in mass graves, the locations of which would only begin to be
excavated decades later by international forensic teams. The single most internationally remembered
event of this campaign occurred in March 1988, in a Kurdish town near the Iranian border,
where chemical weapons were deployed against a civilian population in a manner that produced
one of the most haunting photographic records of the late 20th century.
The attack occurred over the course of a single afternoon.
Various agents, including nerve gas and mustard agents, were dropped on residential neighborhoods.
The death toll on that day alone is generally placed between 3 and 5,000 civilians,
with thousands more permanently injured.
The photographs that emerged in the following days, taken initially by Iranian military personnel
who reached the town within hours of the attack, showed entire families lying.
in the streets where they had fallen. Parents with children clutched in their arms, the chemical
agents having killed too quickly for them to reach shelter. The international reaction, while loud,
was once again notably soft in actual consequences. There were condemnations, there were investigations,
there were no meaningful sanctions, the regime, having concluded that the world's apparent moral
red lines were in practice somewhat more flexible than they appeared, drew the same lesson that
several other regimes in our story had drawn before. The lesson was that absolute power
inside one's own borders, in the late 20th century, generally remained absolute regardless
of what was done with it. There is a particular feature of his domestic rule that deserves
brief description, because it illustrates how the regime managed the relationship between
official austerity and elite consumption with a kind of practice deficiency. Throughout the
worst years of the sanctions period, while ordinary Aurekis were unable to
obtain basic medicines for their children, the leader and his immediate family lived in a network
of presidential residences distributed across the country. Estimates of the number of these
palaces vary, but credible figures place the total at somewhere between 80 and 100 separate
complexes, each with extensive grounds, artificial lakes, ornate marble interiors, and dedicated
staff numbering in the dozens. Some of them were enormous, the size of small towns. Several of them
were essentially fortresses, with reinforced bunkers buried hundreds of feet beneath them.
The construction expenditure, much of it occurring during the same years in which the country was
officially too poor to import insulin, was paid for partially through the manipulation of the United
Nations Oil for Food Program, which had been designed to allow Iraq to sell limited quantities
of oil specifically for humanitarian purchases.
The leader's regime managed, through a combination of bribery, kickbacks to foreign companies,
and creative accounting to extract billions of dollars from this programme for purposes that had little to do with humanitarian relief.
The list of foreign politicians, businessmen, journalists, and academics,
who received financial benefits from this scheme, when it was eventually documented in the post-2003 investigations,
ran to several thousand names across dozens of countries,
and produced a number of late-care embarrassments for previously well-regarded figures.
His personal habits, as documented by various aides and associates, who eventually wrote memoirs after the regime's fall, were a curious mixture of paranoia and indulgence.
He reportedly refused to use any electronic communication system that could be intercepted, conducting essentially all sensitive conversations face to face with trusted couriers carrying written messages.
He had a documented obsession with cleanliness, requiring all visitors to wash their hands before
being admitted to his presence, and reportedly demanding that even his closest aides bathed twice
on the days they were scheduled to meet with him. He maintained, throughout his rule,
an active interest in writing fiction, and produced four novels during his time in power,
with later ones written during the final months of his rule, and published under thinly disguised pseudonyms.
The novels are, by most critical accounts, not particularly distinguished as literature,
though they are occasionally interesting as windows into the leader's view of himself and his place in regional history.
In August 1990, having narrowly survived the Iranian war,
and with his economy badly damaged by years of military expenditure,
the leader made his second great strategic miscalculation.
He ordered the invasion and annexation of Kuwait,
the small but enormously oil-rich country to Iraq's,
The reasons given involved historical claims that Kuwait had been, at one point, an Iraqi province,
along with disputes about oil prices and alleged Kuwaiti drilling into Iraqi territory.
The actual reasons were almost certainly more straightforward.
Iraq needed money.
Kuwait had a great deal of money.
The leader appears to have calculated that the international community,
which had largely tolerated his behaviour during the previous decade,
would similarly tolerate the absorption of one small Gulf monarchy.
This calculation, like its predecessor a decade earlier, turned out to be wrong, though for different
reasons. The end of the Cold War had altered the global political environment in ways the regime
had not fully appreciated. A coalition of dozens of countries, organized under a United Nations mandate
and led militarily by the United States, deployed a force of over half a million troops to the region.
In a campaign lasting roughly six weeks, beginning in January 1991, this coalition,
expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait and inflicted severe damage on the Iraqi military,
though the coalition declined to advance to the capital and remove the regime itself,
on the calculated grounds that the resulting political vacuum might produce something even more
difficult to manage. The decade that followed, from 1991 to 2003, was for ordinary Iraqis
perhaps the worst sustained period of suffering of the entire regime. International sanctions
intended to force the leader to comply with various disarmament requirements,
instead largely insulated his inner circle while devastating the broader population.
Hospitals ran out of basic medicines.
The water and sewage infrastructure, badly damaged in the 1991 bombing campaign, deteriorated further.
Childhood mortality rose sharply.
Estimates of the additional deaths attributable to the sanctions during this period vary widely,
depending on methodology, but credible studies placed.
the figure in the hundreds of thousands of children alone. The leader, meanwhile, continued to live in his
network of palaces, of which he had built dozens across the country during his rule, each one larger
and more elaborate than necessary. He continued to import luxury goods through various smuggling routes.
He continued to brutally suppress two domestic uprisings, one in the south and one in the north,
that had broken out in the immediate aftermath of the 1991 war, and that had been encouraged by international
rhetoric but not actually supported with material assistance. The collapse of those uprisings
and the subsequent reprisals against the populations that had participated in them
killed tens of thousands of additional Iraqis and produced a level of internal terror
that lingered for the rest of the regime's existence. There is one further atrocity from the post-1991
period that deserves a brief mention because it represents one of the most extensive
deliberate environmental destructions ever undertaken as a tool of political repression.
In the marshlands of southern Iraq, between the Lower Tigris and Euphrates Rivers,
lived a community known as the Marsh Arabs, descendants of populations that had inhabited
these wetlands for several thousand years, and whose distinctive way of life, involving reed houses
built on artificial islands, and a culture organized around fishing and water buffalo herding,
had survived essentially unchanged through every previous political
regime that had ruled the region. The marshes themselves had served during the post-war uprisings
as refuge for various opposition fighters who could disappear into the labyrinth of waterways
that no outside force had ever successfully patrolled. The regime's response, beginning in 1991,
and continuing for several years, was to drain the marshes. Massive engineering projects
diverted the rivers, constructed canals to remove standing water, and progressively dried out
wetlands that had covered roughly 9,000 square miles. Within a few years, what had been one of the
largest wetland ecosystems in Western Asia was effectively destroyed. The Marsh Arab population,
which had numbered perhaps half a million people in 1991, was reduced through displacement,
killing, and the simple impossibility of continuing their traditional way of life on dry land
to perhaps 80,000 by the end of the decade. Many fled to Iran, others ended up in slums on the outskirts
of southern cities. The marshes themselves have been partially restored in the years since the
regime's fall through international cooperation and the natural flow of the rivers, but the displaced
population and the destroyed culture have not, for the most part, returned. The events of 2003
deserve careful description, because the war that produced the regime's end has become,
in the intervening years, a controversial subject in its own right, and the moral accounting is
genuinely complicated. The American government, in the months following the September 11th
attacks of 2001, began making increasingly insistent public claims that Iraq retained an
active program of weapons of mass destruction and possessed substantial stockpiles of chemical
and biological agents. These claims were presented to the United Nations, to allied governments,
and to the general public in a sustained campaign that culminated in the invasion of the country
in March 2003.
The military operation itself was relatively brief.
Coalition forces reached the capital within three weeks.
The regime's forces, deeply demoralised,
after a decade of sanctions and unprepared for the type of warfare they faced,
mostly evaporated rather than fighting.
By the middle of April, the leader had vanished
and his statues were being pulled down in the central square of the capital.
What was found, or rather not found, in the months that followed,
is one of the more painful intelligence failures of the modern era.
There were no active programs of weapons of mass destruction.
There were no substantial stockpiles.
The chemical weapons that had been used so extensively during the 1980s
had been largely destroyed during the 1990s under the various inspection regimes,
and the programs to rebuild them,
while present in the leader's strategic ambitions,
had not produced anything operational.
The case for the war, as it had been presented to the public,
simply did not survive contact with reality. Various subsequent inquiries in the United States and
Britain documented the ways in which intelligence had been misread, oversold, or in some cases
simply manufactured during the lead-up to the invasion. The leader, accordingly, lost his country
to a war fought over a threat that was, to a meaningful degree, not actually there.
He himself was eventually found in December 2003 in a small underground hiding place on a farm
not far from his hometown, by American soldiers operating on a tip from a former associate
who had been captured and persuaded to talk. The location was, by any reasonable description,
undignified. It was essentially a hole, perhaps eight feet deep, covered with a piece of styrofoam and
earth, containing a ventilation pipe, a small light, and the basic supplies necessary to live
there for limited periods. He emerged dishevelled, with a long unkempt beard, and was photographed
by the soldiers in a manner that, while not technically humiliating, communicated very clearly
that the man who had presented himself as the lion of his nation for over two decades had,
in the end, been hiding underground in a hole on a relative's farm. The photographs went
around the world within hours. The trial that followed was held in a special tribunal,
established under the new Iraqi government, with international observers and substantial American
logistical support. He was charged initially with crimes
related to a 1982 massacre of villagers in a town that had been the site of an earlier assassination
attempt against him, on the calculated grounds that this case offered the cleanest evidence
and the most straightforward path to a conviction. He used the courtroom, throughout the proceedings,
as a stage. He refused to recognise the court's legitimacy. He delivered lengthy political
speeches, he insulted judges and prosecutors. He attempted to direct the attention of the
international media to what he claimed were the crimes of the foreign forces who had invaded his
country. The proceedings were predictably slower and messier than their organisers had hoped.
He was eventually convicted of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death by hanging.
The execution was carried out on December 30, 2006. Cell phone video taken by witnesses at the
execution, leaked within hours, showed a chaotic scene in which various figures shouted slogans at him
as the sentence was carried out, and the resulting footage produced its own controversy that
lingered for years. The total death toll attributable to his regime, when you combine the war with
Iran, the Anfell campaign against the Kurds, the suppression of various uprisings, the political
executions, the torture deaths in the security services, and the various other categories,
runs to somewhere around 1 to 2 million people across his 24 years in power, depending on how
you count. The total death toll attributable to the war that ended the regime,
including direct combat deaths, the sustained insurgency that followed,
the sectarian violence that erupted in the years after the invasion,
and the broader collapse of public services,
has been estimated by various studies in ranges from several hundred thousand to over a million Iraqis,
with most credible figures landing somewhere in the middle of that range.
The question of how to weigh these numbers against each other,
of whether the removal of one source of suffering justified the introduction of another,
has produced a substantial scholarly literature and remains genuinely unresolved among serious analysts.
What is clearer, in retrospect, is the pattern of strategic miscalculation that defines the leader's
career. He invaded a much larger neighbour in 1980, expecting a quick victory and got an eight-year war.
He invaded a much smaller neighbour in 1990 expecting tolerance and got a coalition.
He spent the decade after that betting that he could outlast international pressure
and was correct about that for a remarkably long time,
but was eventually undone by a foreign government's miscalculation that mirrored his own.
There is a pattern in this.
Authoritarian leaders, isolated from the kind of internal dissent
that occasionally corrects democratic decision-making,
tend to develop habits of overconfidence that prove fatal eventually,
even if they take decades to do so.
The closed circle of advisors, none of whom can risk delivering bad news,
produces a steady drift away from accurate information.
By the time the drift becomes apparent to the man at the top,
it is usually too late to correct it.
He died in the end at the age of 69,
having been pulled from a hole in the ground and placed in front of a camera
three years after the invasion that ended his rule.
His country, in the years that followed his fall,
did not become the prosperous democratic ally
that the architects of the 2003 war had advertised.
It became, instead, a deeply divided state,
whose various ethnic and sectarian communities, having been kept in their respective places by his security apparatus,
began a sustained competition for power and resources that produced years of insurgent violence, sectarian killing, and institutional fragility.
The institutions of the previous regime were dismantled in 2003 in a manner that,
while ideologically satisfying to some of the foreign planners,
also dissolved the only existing structures capable of holding the country together.
hundreds of thousands of trained military personnel suddenly unemployed and humiliated
became available for recruitment by various insurgent groups.
The lesson, which had perhaps already been visible from the previous chapters of our story,
is that removing a dictator is, in many cases, the easier part.
Building a country capable of functioning without him is the much harder part
and external forces are rarely well positioned to manage that construction from the outside.
From the Iraqi case, our journey now turns to a leader who managed to operate one of the most invasive surveillance states of the entire century, in plain sight of the international community for over two decades, before the only remedy that became available was the one applied directly by the people he'd been ruling.
Our journey now takes us back to Europe, but to a corner of it that, throughout most of the second half of the 20th century, sat behind a curtain of restricted information so thick that even basic details about daily life were genuinely.
difficult to confirm from outside. The country we're about to discuss was, on official maps,
a member of the same Eastern European bloc that had emerged after the Second World War,
sharing nominally communist economic arrangements with its neighbours, and supposedly conducting
itself as a junior partner within a larger ideological alliance. In practice, by the 1970s,
it was running its own independent experiment, one that combined a profoundly invasive surveillance state
with an increasingly bizarre cult of personality,
organised around a man whose origins were,
even by the standards of our story so far,
modest to the point of being almost generic.
He was born in 1918,
in a small village in the southwestern part of the country,
the third of nine children in a peasant family
that owned a small plot of land,
a couple of cows and not much else.
His father drank heavily and beat the children regularly,
and the boy was sent away at age 11
to apprentice with a relative in the camp.
Capital, who worked as a shoemaker. He spent his teenage years in the backroom of that workshop,
learning to repair shoes, running errands, and quietly gravitating toward the small underground
communist movement that was, at the time, illegal in the country, and considered a fringe
political curiosity by most observers. He was first arrested at the age of 15 for distributing
political leaflets, an event that, in the official biography produced decades later, would
be portrayed as a moment of heroic awakening. The actual records of the arrest, recovered after
his fall, suggest a somewhat scruffy a boy who had been caught up in something he barely understood
and who had been released after a brief detention with little fuss. He spent the war years in
various prisons and labour camps, where his role within the small communist organisation gradually
grew through the simple mechanism of being there long enough that his more senior comrades
either died, fled or otherwise became unavailable for promotion.
By the time the Red Army arrived in 1944 and the country pivoted toward the Soviet camp,
he was a junior figure in the new ruling party,
useful for his loyalty rather than for any particular political talents.
He spent the late 1940s and early 1950s working his way up through the party apparatus,
doing the kind of dull organizational work that more flamboyant comrades disdained,
and quietly cultivating relationships with the people who would matter later.
By the time the older generation of party leadership began dying off in the night,
1960s he had positioned himself as the natural compromise candidate, the man no faction particularly
objected to. In 1965, at the age of 47, he became the leader of the country, and his career as a
global oddity formally began. For roughly the first eight years of his rule, he presented himself
to the world as a kind of independent-minded reformer, gently distancing his country from the more rigid
practices of his eastern bloc neighbours. He visited the Western Capitals. He was received warmly
in London in Paris and in Washington. He gave interviews in which he criticised the Soviet invasion
of Czechoslovakia, declined to send his own troops, and positioned himself as a maverick within the
alliance whose dignity was worth cultivating. Western leaders, who had spent decades looking for cracks
in the Eastern bloc that could be exploited diplomatically, were genuinely pleased with him. He received
a knighthood in Britain. He was a guest at the White House. He was briefly the face of what was
sometimes called National Communism, an idea that had a kind of intellectual respectability for
about a decade before reality intervened. Then, in 1971, he visited several Asian countries,
including the dynastic state we discussed several chapters ago, and another large neighbour still
operating under the chairman whose career we examined earlier. He came home from these trips,
his contemporaries later reported, fundamentally changed. What he had seen impressed him deeply,
the mass rallies, the synchronized crowds holding up coloured cards to form images of the leader,
the total saturation of public space with the leadership's portrait,
the sense that an entire population could be organised around a single human figure
who was treated for all practical purposes as semi-divine.
He returned home and announced what he called a small cultural revolution,
modelled explicitly on what he had seen abroad,
and proceeded to spend the next 18 years constructing one of the most invasive
and personally focused authoritarian systems in modern European history.
The institution that gave the regime its distinctive character was the Security Service,
an organisation whose name, while officially translating as something like state security,
became in popular usage a single word that carried a particular weight in any conversation.
The service had been established in the late 1940s with Soviet assistance,
but under the new leader it was expanded enormously and given a domestic
mission that went far beyond anything
its eastern block counterparts attempted.
By the late 1980s, the security service had built a network
of informants that, by the most credible academic estimates,
included roughly one out of every 30 adult citizens in the country,
with somewhat higher concentrations in cities and in workplaces of strategic importance.
The arithmetic of this figure deserves a moment's attention.
It meant that statistically in any extended family,
in any office floor in any apartment building, the chances were excellent that at least one person
was filing reports on the others. People knew this. They could not always identify which person it was,
which was precisely the point. The technique, perfected over decades, was to make the surveillance
itself functionally invisible while keeping the awareness of it omnipresent. What the informants
reported on, as the surviving files revealed after the regime's fall, was almost everything. Conversation
in factory canteens, jokes told at family dinners, the behaviour of individuals at neighbourhood
weddings, the presence of foreign newspapers in private homes, the number of times particular
citizens visited a foreign embassy, the contents of letters that had been opened, photographed and
resealed before delivery, the conversations of doctors with their patients when those patients
happen to hold sensitive positions. The list of books read, music listened to, and films watched.
The trials generated by this enterprise eventually filled an estimated 25 kilometres of shelving
in the Security Services archives, a figure that, by the time it became public knowledge,
induced a kind of national vertigo as ordinary citizens realized the scale of what had been
quietly compiled about their lives. A particularly distinctive feature of the system was the regulation
of typewriters. Beginning in 1983, every typewriter in the country had to be registered with the
local police, and a sample of typescript from each machine had to be filed with the authorities
so that, in the event of any document considered politically suspect, the specific typewriter
used to produce it could be identified. This applied to private typewriters as well as institutional
ones. People were required, in some cases, to demonstrate that their machine was actually functional.
Repair shops were monitored. The transfer of typewriters between owners required paperwork.
The administrative effort involved in maintaining the system was, considered objectively considerable,
and the practical benefit to the regime was considered objectively modest.
The point was not exactly the typewriters.
The point was the regulation, the daily reminder that even the act of writing a private letter
at home took place inside a system that was watching.
A surveillance theatre, it was almost elegant in its indirectness.
The economic policies of the period, particularly during the night of the night,
1980s produced material conditions that, even by the standards of the Eastern block at its
worst, were genuinely difficult. The leader had decided in the late 1970s that the country
should pay off its entire foreign debt as rapidly as possible, on the grounds that financial
dependence on Western lenders compromised national sovereignty. The debt itself, accumulated through
ambitious and largely ill-conceived industrial projects, amounted to about $10 billion. The plan was
to pay it off through the systematic export of essentially everything the country produced,
regardless of domestic need. Food, fuel, manufactured goods and pharmaceuticals were sold abroad
while their domestic equivalents disappeared from store shelves. The lights in Bucharest were dimmed
by formal decree to save electricity for export. Hot water for apartments was rationed to a few
hours per week. Heating was set by law to maximum levels that left interior temperatures
inside winter homes hovering near freezing.
Bread was rationed, sugar was rationed, cooking oil was rationed.
Eggs, when available, came in small quantities and required hours of queuing.
The queues themselves became a defining experience of daily life.
People stood for hours.
Sometimes overnight, outside shops where rumours had circulated that some particular item
might appear at some uncertain time the following morning.
Often the rumours were correct.
often they were not.
Workers were known to send children to hold their place in line while they themselves went to their jobs.
The queues were not random.
They were a system, and people developed sophisticated personal strategies for navigating them,
including knowledge of which shops were likely to receive deliveries on which days,
which neighbours could be trusted to hold a position during a brief absence,
and which family members had which official entitlements that could be combined to maximise purchases.
The whole apparatus of daily life became, in effect, a second job, performed in addition to whatever
paid work people did during official hours.
The regime had achieved, almost as a side effect of its policies, a remarkably full saturation
of the population's available time.
There was very little of it left over for political organisation.
The single most consequential domestic policy of the entire regime, however, was not economic,
but demographic.
In 1966, shortly after taking power, the leader had issued a decree that prohibited abortion
and most forms of contraception for women under the age of 45, except in narrowly defined medical
circumstances. The official justification was that the country needed to grow its population,
and the leader had decided that women's reproductive choices were a matter of national
strategy rather than private decision. Couples without children, beyond a certain age,
were subjected to additional taxes.
Women in workplaces were required to undergo monthly gynecological examinations
to detect early pregnancies, with results reported to state authorities.
The decree, numbered 770, would remain in force for the next 23 years,
and its consequences were among the most catastrophic
of any single policy decision of the entire regime.
The immediate effect was a sharp rise in birth rates, exactly as intended.
The longer-term effects were considerably more complicated.
Underground abortions performed in unsterile conditions by people who often had no medical training
became one of the leading causes of death for women of reproductive age in the country.
The official mortality figures from such procedures, when they were eventually compiled after
the regime's fall, ranged from approximately 9 to 12,000 women across the years the decree was in force.
The actual number was almost certainly higher, since many deaths from the resulting infectious.
were officially recorded as something else.
Hundreds of thousands of women survived these procedures with permanent injuries,
including infertility, chronic illness, and various forms of psychological trauma.
The hospitals that treated complications were, by the late 1980s, overwhelmed.
The other consequence was perhaps even more disturbing.
Many of the children produced under the policy, particularly those born to families who could not
afford to raise them, were placed in state-run orphanages.
The orphanage system, which had been modest in size before the decree, expanded dramatically over the following two decades.
By 1989, an estimated 170,000 children were living in these institutions, in conditions that, when international cameras finally entered them after the regime's fall, produced some of the most disturbing news footage of the late 20th century.
Children had been left in cribs for years with minimal physical contact. Babies were tied to their beds, heating,
food and basic medical care were chronically inadequate. Many of the children, when finally examined
by foreign medical teams, were found to have severe developmental problems that would require
lifelong care. A particularly grim feature of the system was the practice of injecting orphans
with adult blood transfusions to address what was called the failure to thrive, a procedure that,
in the absence of proper screening protocols, infected an entire cohort of these children with HIV
during the 1980s.
The country, which had officially reported having no AIDS cases throughout the decade,
turned out to have one of the highest pediatric infection rates in Europe.
While the citizens stood in queues in the dark and the children languished in the orphanages,
the leader was occupied with what he considered the most important project of his reign.
In 1984, he ordered the demolition of approximately one-fifth of the historic centre of the capital city,
an area that had included some of the oldest neighbourhoods in the country,
multiple Orthodox churches and a synagogue that had stood for over a century.
Roughly 40,000 families were evicted from their homes with limited compensation.
The cleared ground was to become the site of a new presidential complex,
anchored by what would, when completed, be one of the largest administrative buildings ever constructed.
The building, eventually called the People's House,
occupied a site of more than 360,000 square metres, contained roughly 1,000 rooms and used over
a million cubic metres of marble, as well as effectively all of the country's domestic
supply of certain rare types of wood. Construction continued throughout the 1980s, requiring the
labour of perhaps 20,000 workers operating in three shifts around the clock, and consumed resources
that, by some estimates, equalled a substantial percentage of the country's entire annual
budget for several years running. The leader visited the construction site obsessively, ordering
modifications that sometimes required already completed sections to be torn down and rebuilt. He was
reportedly displeased with the height of certain ceilings, the colour of certain marble panels, and the
precise carving of various ornamental details. The building was unfinished at the time of his fall,
and remains technically unfinished today, though it has been adapted in the year since to serve
as the country's parliament. By December 1989, the wider eastern European world had been changing
rapidly. The Berlin Wall had fallen the previous month. Other communist governments across the region
were collapsing, in some cases peacefully, in some cases through brief uprisings that produced
limited bloodshed. The leader, observing all of this from his presidential office, appears to have
concluded that what was happening elsewhere was not relevant to him. His country, he assured himself and his
immediate circle was different. His system was secure. His people loved him. He scheduled a major
rally in the capital for December 21st, intended as a demonstration of mass support to be broadcast
on national television. The rally, when it occurred, did not go as planned. Roughly 100,000 people
had been brought to the Central Square, mostly through the standard mechanisms of organised state
attendance. The leader appeared on the balcony of the Central Party building. He began to speak.
approximately eight minutes into the speech, something happened in the back of the crowd.
Accounts vary about what specifically triggered it, but a section of the audience began to boo,
and the booing spread, and within seconds the leader's voice was being drowned out on live
television by audible expressions of dissent from what was supposed to be an enthusiastic crowd.
The cameras showed the leader's face. He looked for a long moment, simply confused,
then briefly frightened. He raised his hand and tried to continue.
But the noise grew louder, the transmission was cut.
By the time it resumed, the rally had effectively ended.
What followed over the next four days was,
even by the standards of revolutionary upheaval, remarkable in its speed.
Crowds gathered in the streets that night and refused to disperse.
Security forces fired on demonstrators in the capital and in other cities,
killing perhaps a thousand people across the country during the days of unrest.
The military, ordered to suppress the protests, made the consequential,
decision over the course of December 22nd to switch sides. By that afternoon, the leader and his
wife had fled the central building by helicopter. The pilot, in what was either an act of conscience
or a careful reading of the political situation, eventually told them he could not fly any further
and drop them in the countryside outside the capital. They were picked up by a passing motorist
who, recognising them, eventually delivered them to a military unit that took them into custody.
The trial, which took place on December 25th in a small room at a military base, lasted approximately two hours.
The leader and his wife refused to recognize the court's authority, insisting that they were still the legitimate rulers of the country,
and that any tribunal could only be addressed by the constitutional grand National Assembly.
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at westjet.com slash 30 years. The judges proceeded anyway. The charges included genocide,
undermining the national economy and the destruction of public property, among others.
Both defendants were convicted on all counts and sentenced to death.
The sentence was carried out within minutes of the verdict in the courtyard outside the building
by soldiers who had been instructed to volunteer for the duty
and from whom an excess of volunteers had reportedly come forward.
The video of the proceedings, including portions of the execution,
was broadcast on national television in the days that followed and watched,
in many countries, with a kind of horrified fascination.
He became, in this manner, the only one of the only one of the same way.
figure in our entire documentary tonight executed by his own population, after his own people
decided on the basis of their own immediate experience, that they were not willing to wait
for whatever international tribunal might eventually have arrived. The whole sequence, from the
rally to the execution, took four days. The country he left behind has spent the decades since
attempting to make sense of what happened. The security files were eventually opened. The orphanages
were emptied, with international assistance over the course of years. The unfinished palisage. The
unfinished palace was repurposed. The economy was painfully reconstructed. The population continues to argue
in ways that surface in unexpected places about who exactly had been an informant and who had not,
about whether certain neighbours should be trusted, about how to weigh the various small
accommodations everyone made under the regime. Some of these arguments are now being conducted
by people who are not yet born when the regime ended, working from documents in the archives,
trying to understand the shape of a society their parents lived through but rarely discussed.
From this story of European tyranny ended by its own population,
we now travel south once more to a country whose tragedy is in some ways the inverse of the one we have just examined.
The man we are about to discuss came to power not as the consolidator of an existing repressive state,
but as a celebrated liberator, hailed by world leaders and pop musicians alike
as the embodiment of his people's dignity.
The collapse he produced unfolded slowly over four decades
was administered with considerably more political subtlety
than most of the figures we have seen tonight
and ended not with a bullet,
but with one of the strangest ceremonies in modern political history.
He was born in 1994
in a rural community in what was then a British colony in southern Africa,
into a family that, by the standards of the African population
under colonial rule, was relatively well positioned.
His father was a carpenter who worked for a Catholic mission, and his mother was a teacher's assistant.
He attended mission schools, where he was identified early as an exceptionally able student.
His father abandoned the family when he was about ten, and he was raised primarily by his mother and the priests at the mission,
who funded his continued education through high school, and eventually arranged scholarships
that allowed him to attend universities in South Africa and elsewhere over the following decade.
By his late 20s, he had accumulated a series of degrees in education, law and economics,
ultimately collecting seven of them across his lifetime.
He was, by an enormous margin, one of the most formally educated political leaders in 20th century Africa,
a fact that he never tired of mentioning, and that in retrospect did relatively little to improve
the quality of his actual decisions.
The country of his birth had been settled by white colonists in the late 19th century,
who had organised a political and economic system that reserved most land, all political power,
and almost all educational opportunity for themselves while extracting labour from the African majority.
This system, by the 1960s, was in serious trouble.
The wave of independence sweeping across Africa was making the colonial arrangement increasingly untenable,
and the white minority government, rather than negotiate a transition to majority rule,
made a unilateral declaration of independence from Britain in 19.
and prepared to defend its position against both international pressure and domestic resistance.
Various African political movements, including one led by our subject, organised armed resistance.
He had been arrested in 1964 for political activity and would spend the next 11 years in detention,
during which time he completed several of his university degrees by correspondence,
and emerged when he was finally released in 1974 as one of the senior figures in the broader
deliberation movement. The war that followed was longer and more brutal than either side had expected.
By the late 1970s, the white minority government had concluded that continued resistance was not
sustainable, and a series of negotiations in London produced an agreement under which the country
would hold elections under universal suffrage and transition to majority rule. In the elections of
February 1980, his party won decisively, and on April 18th of that year, the country celebrated its
independence under his leadership. He was 56 years old. He had spent over a decade in prison.
He was widely admired internationally as a symbol of African dignity and moral authority.
The British Prime Minister at the time received him warmly. A famous Jamaican musician,
who had recently released what would become one of the most popular reggae albums of all time,
performed at the independent ceremony. The mood, on that evening in the capital, was genuinely
euphoric. Few of the people present that night could have anticipated.
what the next 37 years would produce.
For the first three years, the new government performed reasonably well.
Education spending increased dramatically.
Healthcare reached rural areas that had been ignored for generations.
Agricultural output rose, and the country, already known for its productive farms,
began to be referred to by analysts as the breadbasket of the region,
capable not only of feeding itself but of exporting substantial quantities of grain to neighbours.
The leader spoke during this period of a policy of national reconciliation, urging citizens to forgive the divisions of the war and work together.
The performance during this honeymoon period was widely cited internationally as a model for post-colonial transitions.
Then, beginning in early 1983, something changed.
A specialised military unit trained by North Korean advisors and reporting directly to the leader rather than through the regular military command, was deployed to the southwestern provinces of the country.
where the population was concentrated within a particular ethnic minority
that had supported a rival liberation movement during the war.
The official justification was the suppression of dissident armed groups operating in the region.
The actual operations, when they were eventually documented years later
through testimony, mass grave excavations and surviving records,
included systematic violence directed at civilian populations across roughly four years.
Villages were attacked, schools were shut down, curfews were imposed,
people were detained and never seen again.
Estimates of the death toll as compiled by various human rights organisations and academic researchers
range from approximately 20,000 to upwards of 100,000 people,
with a wider range reflecting the difficulty of counting deaths in remote rural areas
across years of restricted access.
The international community, which had so recently celebrated the leader as a moral hero,
responded to these events with what can charitably be called restraint.
Reports of the violence appeared in some Western newspapers, but rarely as front-page items.
Diplomatic representations were made privately.
No major international action followed.
The leader had built up in his early years a considerable reservoir of international goodwill,
and that goodwill, combined with the geopolitical considerations of the late Cold War,
was sufficient to shield the operations from the level of scrutiny they would otherwise have attracted.
By 1987, the operations were officially declared concluded,
the rival party was absorbed into the ruling party in what was described as a unity agreement,
and the country moved on.
The events of those four years would not be officially acknowledged by his government
during his entire remaining time in power.
For the next decade or so, the country settled into a pattern that observers described as authoritarian but functional.
Elections were held, though the playing field was tilted increasingly in favour of the ruling party.
The press was constrained, but not entirely controlled.
Civil society organisations operated within limits.
The economy continued to function, though with growing distortions.
The leader, now in his 60s and 70s, gradually consolidated his personal authority,
replacing potential rivals with loyalists,
marrying a much younger woman whose taste for expensive shopping abroad
would become internationally famous,
and developing the kind of cultivated political theatre
that allowed him to play different roles to different audiences
depending on what each particular audience seemed to want.
The transformation that brought down the country economically
came in the year 2000,
with a policy that the leader described as land reform.
The historical reality, which he was correct to identify
even if he handled it disastrously,
was that decades after independence,
the most productive farmland in the country
still belonged disproportionately to descendants of the white settler population,
while the African majority, particularly in rural areas, had access to less productive land, or no land at all.
Various proposals had been discussed throughout the 1990s for some form of organised redistribution
with international financial support on the model that South Africa had been attempting with mixed results.
The leader, however, chose instead to authorise a campaign of forcible occupation
in which groups of self-proclaimed war veterans, along with a substantial number of younger men who had not actually been
born during the war, simply moved onto commercial farms and demanded that the owners leave.
The state, rather than restraining these occupations, encouraged them.
Within a few years, most of the commercial farming sector had been disrupted or destroyed.
The land that was redistributed, however, did not generally go to landless rural households.
It went in disproportionate amounts to senior officials, military officers, and politically connected
individuals, many of whom had no farming experience and proceeded to operate the farms at a
fraction of their previous productivity, when they bothered to operate them at all. The economic
consequences arrived rapidly. Agricultural exports collapsed, foreign investment fled. International
lenders cut off credit. The country, which had been a net food exporter for decades,
became dependent on emergency food assistance to feed its own population. The currency,
which had begun the decade trading roughly at parity with the British pound, began a steady
dissent that turned by the mid-2000s into one of the most spectacular hyperinflation episodes
in modern economic history. Prices doubled in days, then in hours. The central bank kept printing
larger and larger denominations of notes to keep up with the inflation, eventually issuing a bank
note with a face value of $100 trillion in the local currency. The note, which was officially worth
several hundred dollars at its issuance, and was effectively worthless within weeks, became a kind of
darkly comedic souvenir for foreign tourists and is now sold on the international collector's market
for considerably more than it was ever worth as actual money. At the peak of the inflation,
in late 2008, the official monthly rate exceeded several hundred million percent, calculating it
precisely became, in the technical sense, impossible. People used wheelbarrows of cash for grocery
shopping. Restaurants stopped printing menus and quoted prices verbally based on the hour.
The currency was eventually abandoned entirely, with the country switching to the use of foreign
currencies for most transactions for nearly a decade afterward. Throughout this slow-motion
catastrophe, the leader continued to win elections. Some of the elections were close. Some of them
produced results that international observers questioned. Some were preceded by waves of violence directed
at opposition supporters that, while never quite reaching the scale of the campaigns of the 1980s,
were nonetheless sufficient to communicate the costs of organised political opposition.
He did, on several occasions, formally agreed to power-sharing arrangements with his most prominent
opposition figure. But these arrangements consistently functioned more as political theatre
than as actual transfers of authority, with his own party retaining control of the security
services, the military, and the institutions that mattered most for actual governance.
The end, when it came in November 2017, was unusual in the recent history of African politics.
The leader was by then 93 years old and had spent the previous several months engaged in what
observers correctly identified as an attempt to position his much younger wife as his eventual
successor against the preferences of his vice president and a substantial portion of the senior
military officer class. The vice president was abruptly fired and fled the country.
The senior generals concluded that the situation had reached a point at which intervention was
necessary to protect their own positions. The military moved into the capital,
took control of the national broadcaster, surrounded the presidential residence,
and announced that what was occurring was definitely not a coup, but rather an operation
to address criminals around the leader. The leader himself was effectively placed under
house arrest, while negotiations proceeded over the form his exit would take.
After roughly a week, during which time he continued to issue statements, insisting that he
remained in charge, he formally resigned. Crowds in the capital celebrated openly,
embracing soldiers and posing for photographs with tanks in scenes that were genuinely
difficult to read in real time. They were not exactly celebrating a coup. They were not exactly
celebrating a peaceful transition. They were celebrating with a certain practiced work.
wariness, the end of something that had defined the entire adult lives of most people in the
country. He spent his final two years in semi-retirement, living in a large home in the capital
and travelling occasionally for medical treatment to Singapore. He gave a small number of
interviews in which he expressed bewilderment at how things had ended and continued to insist,
in tones reminiscent of several other figures we have discussed tonight, that history would
judge him kindly once the political emotions of the moment had faded.
He died in September 2019 at the age of 95.
In a hospital in Singapore, the cause of death was officially given as advanced age and various complications.
He was returned to his home country for burial, where the proceedings became a small political
controversy of their own, with various factions disputing where exactly he should be interred.
His grave eventually ended up at his rural homestead, rather than at the National Heroes Cemetery in the capital,
A final small refusal of full state honours that the leader himself, had he been able to observe it,
would almost certainly have found insulting.
The country he left behind has continued to struggle with the consequences of decisions that, in some cases,
were made before most of its current population was born.
The agricultural sector has only partially recovered.
Skilled workers, particularly doctors, teachers and engineers,
have continued to emigrate in large numbers throughout the years of economic difficulty.
The political system, while officially democratic, remains dominated by the same party that he led,
and the project of building a more accountable government continues,
with all the slow and unglamorous work that such projects involve.
What his story illustrates, in addition to the particular tragedy of his own decisions,
is something we have seen now in different forms throughout the entire documentary.
The journey from Liberator to Disaster does not generally happen in a single moment.
It is gradual, accumulated through small decisions that each taken in isolation might be defended.
The result, over decades, is a country that no longer looks like the one its founders had imagined,
ruled by people who can no longer remember what they had originally come to power to do.
And as we move toward our final chapter, which steps back to consider what these ten stories have in common,
this gradual quality of authoritarian drift will turn out to be one of the most important things to understand about,
how, in our own time and in any time, these systems actually take hold. From the long farewell
ceremony of our previous figure, who at least had the decency to surrender power before reaching
the age of 100, our journey turns north and east, to a country whose history is genuinely older than
almost any other we have visited tonight. The land we're about to discuss is one of the few in Africa that
was never successfully colonised by a European power, a state with its own ancient script, its own ancient
church, its own ancient calendar that runs roughly seven years behind the one most of the world
uses, and a tradition of imperial monarchy that traced itself in the official genealogy
maintained by its rulers all the way back to the biblical King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba.
The man who would eventually overthrow that monarchy and replace it with one of the most brutal
regimes in the modern history of the African continent, was, even by the standards of our story
tonight, an exceptionally unlikely candidate for the role. Nothing in his early biography would have
suggested the trajectory he eventually travelled. He was, in the most literal sense, a product of accidents.
He was born in 1937, in a small town in the southern part of the country, into a family
whose precise social position has been the subject of considerable subsequent debate. The official
version, produced after he came to power, described him as the son of an ordinary soldier and a
working mother. Less generous accounts, advanced by political opponents, and some later historians,
suggested that his mother had been a domestic servant in the household of a powerful family of mixed
aristocratic and slave-descended ancestry, and that his own status had been somewhere on an
uncomfortable border between household member and household property. The truth is probably somewhere
in the middle, and the ambiguity itself appears to have shaped his political instincts.
people who grow up uncertain about whether they are inside or outside the room where decisions are made
tend to develop a particular orientation toward power once they finally get into it.
They tend, in particular, to remember exactly who treated them how before the fact.
He attended local schools, did reasonably well, and at the age of about 19, enrolled in the country's
military academy. He was, by all accounts of his early career, a competent but unremarkable
officer, the kind of man who showed up on time, executed his orders accurately, and did not appear
to have political ambitions of any obvious kind. He was sent for additional training to the United
States in the early 1960s as part of a military assistance program, where he reportedly experienced
incidents of racial discrimination that left a lasting impression and which he would later cite as one of
the formative influences on his political worldview. He returned to his home country and continued his
career, rising slowly through the ranks of the artillery branch. By the early 1970s he was a major,
which in the rigid hierarchical system of his country's army was a respectable but not particularly
distinguished position. He was at this point 36 years old, and there is no surviving evidence that
anyone, including himself, had identified him as a future head of state. The country, however,
was approaching a serious crisis. The emperor who had ruled for over four decades was now in his 80s,
and his government had grown increasingly out of touch with the population.
The country had experienced a serious famine in the early 1970s,
particularly in the northern province,
that the imperial government had attempted to conceal from international observers
and which produced the deaths of perhaps a quarter of a million people.
When foreign journalists eventually documented the situation,
the resulting embarrassment was severe,
and a sequence of demonstrations and military mutinies throughout 1973 and early 1974
began to suggest that the centuries-old monarchy was no longer secure.
By February 1974, the situation had deteriorated to the point that a small group of junior officers
from various units of the military had begun meeting in secret to discuss what they called
the necessary changes.
Our subject was one of these junior officers.
He was not at this stage a particularly prominent member of the group.
What followed over the course of 1974 was not so much a coup as a slow administrative.
dismantling of the Imperial State, conducted by a committee of military officers who initially numbered
around 120, and who called themselves, in the local language, by a word that translated as
committee. They began by demanding the dismissal of certain ministers, then they demanded the
dismissal of others, then they began arresting senior officials. Then they began, in September of that
year, the formal removal of the emperor himself, who was driven away from his palace in the back of a
small Volkswagen sedan in what may be the most thoroughly anticlimactic exit of any monarch in modern
history. The emperor was placed under house arrest in a small bungalow on the palace grounds,
where he died the following year under circumstances that remained unclear for decades.
The official cause of death was given as natural causes related to advanced age.
Documents recovered after the regime's fall suggest that he had been suffocated with a pillow
on the orders of senior committee members, after which his body was buried under a latrower.
on the palace grounds. He was rediscovered there in 1992 and was eventually given a state
funeral over a decade later. The committee, having removed the monarch, now had to figure out
what to do next. This proved more difficult than expected. The 120 officers had agreed on the
necessity of overthrowing the imperial system. They had not agreed in any detail on what should
replace it. Various factions emerged, advocating different ideological directions, different relationships
with foreign powers and different timetables for civilian restoration.
The internal debates were sharp.
They became, over the course of 1975 and 1976, lethal.
Senior committee members began to be arrested by their own colleagues.
Some were imprisoned, some were executed.
The committee, which had begun as a deliberative body,
gradually became an arena in which physical survival depended on identifying threats early
and eliminating them first.
In this competition, our subject demonstrated a quality that none of his colleagues had previously credited him with possessing,
which was an extraordinary willingness to act on suspicions before they could be confirmed.
He was not the smartest man in the room. He was not the most articulate.
He was, however, the first to draw a weapon.
By February 1977, after a particularly bloody internal confrontation at the committee's headquarters,
in which several senior figures were killed in a meeting,
that had been convened to discuss policy. He emerged as the unchallenged leader of the regime.
He was 39 years old. He had been an obscure artillery major three years earlier. He was now in charge
of a country of roughly 35 million people, the second largest in Africa by population at that time,
and he was about to embark on what would become one of the most violently ideological periods
of the entire African 20th century. The political program he announced was a hardline
Marxist orientation, considerably more rigid than what had been emerging during the previous
years of internal debate. He aligned the country firmly with the Soviet Union, which provided
extensive military and economic support throughout the following decade. He nationalized banks,
factories, large rural land holdings, and most urban housing above a certain modest size. He launched
a campaign to organize the rural population into collective production units along models that had failed
elsewhere, but which he was determined to apply at scale, and he made clear that opposition,
whether from political rivals, intellectual critics, or ordinary citizens who hesitated to
display sufficient enthusiasm, would not be tolerated. The mechanism for ensuring this was a
campaign that ran roughly from 1977 through 1978, and which the regime itself referred to
with a specific phrase that translated, more or less directly, as read terror. The phrase was not
chosen idly. The campaign was modelled in conception, if not always in execution, on the historical
period of the same name during the early Russian Revolution, and the leader explicitly invoked that
precedent in speeches calling for the elimination of the country's so-called counter-revolutionary
elements. The single most theatrical moment of the campaign was a public ceremony held in the
central square of the capital, at which the leader stood on a balcony and smashed three
bottles of red liquid against the stones below, declaring as he did so that the substance
represented the blood of those who would oppose the revolution. The bottles, in retrospect,
were almost certainly filled with food colouring. The blood that followed, over the course of the
next 18 months, was real. The targets of the campaign were primarily the youth political organisations
that had emerged in opposition to the regime, particularly a movement of left-wing university
students who, while themselves committed to revolutionary politics, had concluded that the new
military government was insufficiently radical and had begun organising clandestine resistance.
The campaign deployed armed neighbourhood committees, who were authorised to identify suspected
opponents and detain them, with executions often carried out in the streets and bodies left
for several days as warnings to others. Families of those killed were, in some documented cases,
required to pay for the cost of the bullets used in the executions before being permitted to
retrieve the bodies for burial. The number of people killed during this period is generally
placed at somewhere between 30,000 and 200,000, with the wide range reflecting the genuine
difficulty of counting, in a country where many of the killings were undocumented, and where survivors
were often too frightened to report deaths formally. Most of those killed were young, a disproportionate
number were university students, secondary school students and recent graduates. The country lost in the
space of about 18 months a substantial portion of an entire educated generation. The leader's personal style
during the years of his rule was, by the accounts of those who survived close work in contact with him,
distinctive in ways that made him difficult to manage even by the standards of authoritarian behavior.
He was reportedly given to long, brooding silences in meetings, during which subordinates were unable
to determine whether he was considering their proposals or composing the dismissal that would follow.
He had a preference for receiving information orally rather than in writing, which had the
practical effect of making it difficult to verify what had actually been decided in any particular
conversation. He kept relatively limited written records, preferring to issue instructions
through trusted couriers, and when written records were necessary, they tended to be drafted
in language vague enough to permit considerable subsequent interpretation. The result was an administrative
environment in which subordinates were chronically uncertain about exactly what had been ordered
and accordingly tended to err on the side of harshness, since failure of insufficient zeal
was generally more dangerous than failure of excess. The pattern of escalation that this dynamic
produced was visible across every level of the regime. Local officials, uncertain about
exactly how much violence the centre wanted, consistently delivered slightly more than they thought
necessary in order to avoid being accused of softness. The centre, observing the resulting violence,
concluded that the local officials understood the situation correctly and adjusted future signals
accordingly. The system, in this manner, drove itself toward greater cruelty without any
single decision-maker ever explicitly choosing it. His residence during the years of his power was a
vast palace complex in the capital, expanded considerably from the imperial structures that had
preceded it. He maintained a personal lifestyle that was, by the standards of his country's general
population, extraordinarily comfortable. He had a private menagerie that included lions, said to have
been bred from the lineage that had been kept by the emperor he had overthrown. He had a fleet of
imported vehicles. He had multiple secondary residences in different regions of the country,
each maintained at full readiness even when he was not visiting. The contrast between this lifestyle
and the conditions in the rural areas during the famine years was,
in the records that have since become available,
genuinely difficult to reconcile with any conventional account of revolutionary commitment.
While the internal campaign was underway,
the regime was also fighting wars on multiple external and internal fronts,
a long-running insurgency in the northern province,
which had begun before the imperial government's fall
and which sought independence from the central state.
Intensified significantly during this period,
A separate insurgency in another northern region, ethnic in character, and increasingly Marxist in ideology, also strengthened.
A neighbouring country, taking advantage of the chaos, invaded across the eastern border in 1977 in an attempt to seize a disputed region,
and was eventually pushed back only after the Soviet Union and Cuba, sent substantial military forces to support the regime's defence.
The war that followed continued for over a decade. The regime maintained throughout this.
entire period, one of the largest standing armies in Africa, eventually exceeding half a million
soldiers, supported by enormous quantities of Soviet equipment and a steady flow of Cuban advisors.
The military expenditure consumed an extraordinary portion of the country's resources. Estimates
of the cumulative cost vary, but most analyses suggest that defence spending exceeded all other
government expenditures combined for most of the 1980s. There is a particular dimension of the
red terror that deserves brief examination, because it illustrates the longer-term consequences of
the destruction of an educated generation. The country had, by the standards of its region,
been investing significantly in education throughout the latter decades of imperial rule,
and a substantial cohort of young people had been emerging from secondary schools and the country's
flagship university, with skills that, in any reasonably stable political environment,
would have provided the country with the next generation of doctors, engineers,
teachers,
agricultural specialists, and civil administrators.
The campaign of 1977 and 1978 fell on this cohort with particular concentration.
The university, which had been a centre of opposition organisation, was effectively shut down for years.
Secondary schools, identified as recruiting grounds for the political organisations being targeted,
were also disrupted.
Tens of thousands of young people who would have entered professional life over the course of the 1980s,
were simply removed, either through direct killing, through extended imprisonment, or through
flight into exile abroad. The country in the years afterward was forced to operate accordingly
with a substantially diminished professional class, and many of the development challenges it
faced in subsequent decades were directly traceable to the absence of a generation that had
been targeted at exactly the moment when their skills were most needed. A particular feature
of the campaign that survivors have repeatedly described in their later testimony was the
encouragement given to ordinary citizens to participate in the identification and detention of suspected
opponents. Neighborhood committees were authorized to conduct what were called search and arrest
operations, and in many cases the actual decisions about which individuals would be targeted were made
by these local committees rather than by the Central Security Services. The result was that
local rivalries, family disputes, romantic disappointments and ordinary commercial competitions all became.
during this period, potentially lethal.
People who had been on the wrong side of any minor disagreement during the previous decade
found themselves accused of counter-revolutionary activities
and detained on the testimony of neighbours who had known them since childhood.
The accumulation of these locally driven denunciations,
layered on top of the centrally directed targeting of organised political opposition,
produced a death toll considerably higher than what the regime's strategic objectives alone would have required.
The system, having been turned on, simply ran beyond what its designers had originally intended.
The catastrophe for which the regime is most internationally remembered, however, was not directly produced by any of these wars.
It was produced by a combination of natural drought, structural agricultural policy failures,
and a deliberate political decision to subordinate humanitarian relief to the celebration of the regime's 10th anniversary.
The drought began in 1983 in the northern province, the same region that had produced the famine
that had helped bring down the imperial government a decade earlier. By early 1984, the situation
in rural areas was rapidly deteriorating. Crops had failed. Livestock had died. People were
beginning to walk away from their homes in search of food, an increasingly desperate condition.
The regime, however, was preoccupied with the preparation of an elaborate ceremony to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the revolution, scheduled for September of that year.
Resources that might otherwise have been directed toward emergency food assistance were instead diverted to the construction of monuments, the printing of commemorative materials, and the organisation of mass celebrations in the capital.
International requests for permission to conduct food assessments in the affected regions were initially denied
on the grounds that drawing international attention to a famine during the anniversary celebrations would be politically inconvenient.
The leader, in meetings with senior advisors that were eventually documented through testimony, provided after his fall,
reportedly stated that the country could not be seen by foreign visitors as a place where people were starving during a major national festival.
The famine became internationally known in October 1984, almost by accident.
A British television journalist named Michael Bjerk, working on what was supposed to be a routine assignment,
was permitted limited access to a feeding centre in the northern town of Coram,
where roughly 40,000 displaced people had gathered.
The footage he produced, broadcast on the British Evening News on October 23rd,
was immediately recognised as something that broke through the normal threshold of international news coverage.
It showed a scene that observers compared to images from the most extreme historical records of European famines,
with mothers holding dying infants in conditions of obvious mass hunger.
The broadcast triggered, within hours, a massive international response.
Within weeks, foreign aid was flowing into the country at unprecedented levels.
Within months, an Irish musician named Bob Geldof, who had seen the broadcast and been deeply affected by it,
organized a charity recording that became one of the best-selling singles in British history,
followed the next year by a coordinated multi-continent concert event known as Live Aid.
The combined fundraising eventually amounted to many millions of pounds,
much of which was directed to relief operations in the country.
The regime's relationship with the international relief effort was,
throughout this period, complicated by the fact that the rural areas most severely affected were,
in many cases, also the areas most actively involved in the long-running and
The leaders' government calculated that food assistance flowing into rebel-controlled territory
might strengthen rebel positions and accordingly imposed a series of restrictions on where international
agencies could operate. Some assistance was redirected, some was confiscated by government forces
and used to support military operations rather than civilian relief. The international agencies
operating in the country worked under increasingly difficult conditions, attempting to balance
humanitarian principles against the practical limitations imposed by the regime. The total death toll
from the famine has been estimated by various academic studies at somewhere between 400,000 and 1 million
people, with most credible figures landing in the higher portion of that range. In response to the famine,
the regime also undertook a program that, even by its own standards, was extraordinarily destructive.
The official term for it was something that translated as resettlement, and the program involved relocated
educating roughly 600,000 people from the drought-affected northern regions to wetter,
more agriculturally productive areas in the southern part of the country.
The stated rationale was humanitarian, an effort to move suffering populations to regions
where they could rebuild their lives. The actual implementation, however, was marked by
extraordinary cruelty. Families were separated, often permanently, in the chaos of the transports.
People were moved against their will in trucks and on aircraft, with minimal
consultation about their preferences or destinations. They arrived at relocation sites that,
in many cases, had not been prepared for their reception with insufficient housing, inadequate
food supplies and limited access to medical care. The regions to which they were moved were
often inhabited by other ethnic groups who had not been consulted about the influx of new residents,
and who, predictably, did not always welcome them. The death toll from the resettlement program
itself, separate from the famine that had ostensibly justified it, has been estimated at approximately
100,000 people. The program was eventually scaled back under sustained international criticism,
but the displacement it produced continued to affect family structures and ethnic relations in the
country for decades afterward. A separate program called villageization attempted to consolidate
scattered rural populations into newly constructed centralised villages on the theory that concentrated
populations could be more efficiently provided with services and more effectively monitored.
The villageisation scheme, which affected millions of additional people, was implemented hastily,
often violently, and with similar disregard for the preferences or interests of those being moved.
The new villages frequently failed to provide the services that had been promised.
The consolidation disrupted established agricultural patterns, and the entire programme produced
a substantial decline in agricultural productivity that contributed to on-esuitable.
ongoing food insecurity throughout the rest of the regime's existence. By the late 1980s,
the regime was facing a combination of pressures that had become increasingly difficult to manage.
The Soviet Union, the regime's principal patron, was itself in serious trouble and was reducing
its commitments to client states around the world. The various insurgencies in the north were
gradually winning the war, with rebel forces controlling progressively larger portions of the countryside.
The economy, devastated by years of warfare, drought and policy failure,
was incapable of supporting the regime's continued military operations.
Senior officers, including some who had been part of the original Revolutionary Committee,
were quietly opening communications with rebel leaders.
By the early 1990s, the situation had become unsustainable.
The end came in May 1991.
As rebel forces advanced toward the capital, the leader concluded that the situation was lost.
On May 21st he delivered a brief televised address in which he announced that he was leaving the country temporarily for medical treatment.
The medical treatment, as everyone watching understood immediately, was a polite fiction.
He flew to a friendly country in southern Africa that had been arranged in advance through diplomatic channels,
accompanied by a small entourage of family members and senior associates.
The rebel forces entered the capital a week later.
The regime he had built, having lasted 17 years, simply ended.
The country he fled to was the same one whose former liberator we discussed in the previous chapter,
the leader of which had agreed to provide asylum on the grounds of long-standing personal and political
ties between the two men. He was given a comfortable residence in the capital, a security detail,
and a substantial monthly stipend funded through the host government's resources.
He has, as of this recording, lived there continuously for over three decades.
He is now in his late 80s. He spends his time, by the accounts of the small number of journalists who have
managed to interview him over the years, watching foreign cable news, reading military history,
and drafting what he describes as his memoirs, which are intended to correct the various
misunderstandings that he believes have accumulated about his record. His country, after his departure,
did eventually attempt to hold him accountable in the only way that remained available
given his physical absence. A trial was conducted in absentia in the capital from 1994 onward,
addressing the killings of the Red Terror Campaign and various other actions during his rule.
The proceedings were lengthy, involving the testimony of hundreds of witnesses
and the introduction of substantial documentary evidence recovered from the regime's archives after its fall.
He was eventually convicted in 2006 of multiple counts including genocide and crimes against humanity
and was sentenced to death. The sentence was upheld on appeal in 2008. The host country, however,
has consistently declined to extradite him, citing various legal and political objections,
and the death sentence accordingly remains formally in force without any practical mechanism for enforcement.
He has, in this curious way, become one of a small number of people in modern history
to have been formally sentenced to death by a national court while continuing to live in apparent comfort
in another country that simply refuses to deliver him to the executioner.
The arrangement under which he has continued to live in his host country is one of the more peculiar diplomatic situations in contemporary international politics.
His presence has occasionally been raised by various international bodies and human rights organisations
who have urged the host government to reconsider its position.
The host government has consistently declined to do so, citing the personal commitment that had been made at the moment of his arrival,
and the broader principle that political asylum once granted should not be casually rescinded.
There is also the practical consideration that the host government's own subsequent leadership
has changed multiple times over the past three decades,
and each new administration has, after consideration,
declined to be the one that revisits a long-standing arrangement
that does not currently impose any significant political cost.
He has, in this manner, become a kind of permanent fixture in the foreign capital where he now lives,
a figure occasionally photographed at supermarkets or medical appointments by foreign journalists who recognize him,
but who has gradually faded from the active attention of all but the most dedicated observers of the region's history.
The total death toll attributable to his regime, when you combine the red terror killings, the deliberate aspects of the famine,
the resettlement and villageization programs, the various wars conducted against insurgent populations,
and the ongoing political executions that continued throughout his time in power,
is generally estimated by serious academic studies at somewhere between one and two million people.
The lower end of this range exceeds the entire population of several modern countries.
The upper end is genuinely difficult to absorb.
He has, throughout the decades of his exile, expressed no public regret for any of these decisions.
In the rare interviews he is given, he has consistently maintained that the actions of his government
were necessary responses to the threats facing the revolution,
that the famine was primarily a natural disaster for which his regime was unfairly blamed,
and that history, when it eventually catches up with the relevant facts,
will recognise him as a misunderstood reformer who had been doing his best in difficult circumstances.
We have walked through ten histories tonight.
In the chapter that remains, we will gather the patterns connecting them
and try to make sense of what they say about the conditions under which power becomes catastrophe.
We have now walked through ten countries,
10 leaders, and roughly a century of history. The geographies are wildly different.
Berlin and Pyongyang share almost nothing in terms of climate, language, religion or political
tradition. Bucharest and Kampala have nothing in common except the broad fact of being capital
cities. The ideologies these regimes promoted ranged across the entire spectrum of 20th century
political thought, from racial nationalism to revolutionary communism to ethno-religious identity
politics, to a peculiar kind of dynastic theocracy that has not really been seen anywhere else.
The cultures the regimes inherited had different traditions of authority, different relationships
with foreign powers, different histories of conflict, different demographic compositions,
and different baseline levels of economic development. If you simply listed the variables
that distinguished one of these countries from another, you would conclude that these stories
should have very little to teach us in the aggregate
because the underlying condition seems so dissimilar.
What is striking, when you actually read the sources side by side,
is how similar the underlying patterns turn out to be.
The men who walked these paths into power did not, of course, coordinate with each other.
Most of them never met.
Many of them held one another in active contempt.
The regimes they built were not copies of each other in any conscious sense,
and yet the sequence of moves they each executed,
the mechanisms by which they consolidated their positions,
the rationalisations they offered to their populations,
the ways they handled criticism,
and the ways they eventually ended up either dying in their beds
or being pulled from holes in the ground,
or being shot in courtyards by their own former subordinates,
traced lines that overlap in genuinely uncomfortable ways.
The patterns that emerge from this material are accordingly worth taking seriously,
not as an academic exercise but as something closer to a field guide.
tonight, in this final chapter, we will step back from the individual cases and try to identify
what the patterns actually are, on the working assumption that recognising them while they are still
forming might, in some future situation we cannot yet anticipate, be useful to someone.
The first pattern, which has appeared in nearly every chapter we have looked at, is the role of
crisis as the entry condition. None of the figures we examined came to power in a country
that was experiencing ordinary times.
The economies were collapsing, or the currencies were failing,
or the wars had recently ended badly,
or the previous regime had become so corrupt and unresponsive
that almost any alternative seemed preferable.
The crisis itself, in other words, was usually genuine.
The grievances on which these leaders rose were not generally manufactured.
People really were hungry.
Pensioners really had been ruined.
National humiliations really had occurred.
The previous government really had failed.
What the leaders did was not invent the crisis, but rather offer a particular interpretation of it,
one in which the suffering had clear causes that could be located in identifiable enemies,
and one in which the solution required concentrating extraordinary authority in the hands of a single decisive figure.
This is the move on which everything else depends.
A population that feels itself to be in a state of emergency is willing to accept emergency measures.
A population that feels secure is much harder to organise around a project,
of authoritarian transformation.
The leaders we have discussed understood this,
sometimes consciously and sometimes by instinct,
and they were rarely shy about exaggerating the existing crises
or, when necessary,
manufacturing additional ones to keep the population
in the appropriate mental state.
The second pattern follows directly from the first,
and it concerns the construction of internal enemies.
In every case, the regime identified some category of person
within its own borders as the root of the country's troubles.
Sometimes the category was ethnic.
Sometimes it was religious, sometimes it was political,
defined by membership in a particular party,
or even by the suspected sympathies of one's relatives or social contacts.
Sometimes the category was professional,
encompassing intellectuals, doctors, lawyers,
anyone whose educational skills made them potentially independent of state authority.
The specifics varied.
The function did not.
The internal enemy served as the explanation for why the promise
improvements were not arriving as quickly as expected, as the justification for the security
measures being progressively expanded, and as the binding agent that held the regime's supporters
together against a common threat, without the internal enemy, the regime's identity would
have been much harder to maintain. With it, every difficulty could be reframed as evidence of the
enemy's continued conspiracies. This rhetorical mechanism is perhaps the single most reliable
warning sign across all ten of our cases, because it is also the mechanism most easily detected
from outside the country in question. When the rhetoric of leadership in any place begins to settle
on a particular minority, as the explanation for problems whose actual causes are obviously
elsewhere, the historical record suggests that very specific consequences tend to follow. The third
pattern is the dismantling of independent institutions, conducted typically through legal procedure
rather than through obvious force.
The regimes we examined did not, in most cases,
simply abolished the courts.
They restructured them,
replaced their judges,
redrew their jurisdictions,
and gradually narrowed the range of cases
on which they could rule against the executive.
They did not, in most cases,
simply closed the newspapers.
They acquired them through favoured intermediaries,
applied selective economic pressure to their owners,
harassed their journalist with regulatory inquiries,
and over time produced a press that,
while still technically independent on paper, had learned which subjects could not be discussed
and which formulations would result in unpleasantness. They did not, in most cases,
simply ban civil society organisations. They subjected them to onerous registration requirements,
required them to report on their funding sources, sent inspectors at inconvenient times,
and let it become known that certain kinds of activity would attract certain kinds of attention.
The cumulative effect of these incremental measures was to produce a country,
in which the formal architecture of liberal institutions still existed but no longer functioned,
while the leadership could continue to claim, with technical accuracy, that the country was governed by laws and not by personal whim.
The moment when this transformation has been completed is rarely visible from inside the country.
It is often visible only in retrospect, sometimes years later,
when a journalist or a judge or a civil society leader notices that whatever they were trying to do has become somehow impossible,
and that they cannot quite identify the moment when it stopped being possible.
The fourth pattern is the cultivation of what historians sometimes call the cult of personality,
though that phrase has acquired a kind of clinical detachment that understates what the phenomenon actually involves.
What we're talking about is the gradual displacement of ordinary public reality by the narrative of the leader's life.
The leader's biography is rewritten to assign him or her a more heroic past than the documentary record actually supports.
the leader's image appears in increasing numbers of public spaces than private ones.
The leader's words are quoted with increasing frequency in contexts where,
in any normal political environment, they would not be quoted at all.
School curricula are revised to give greater attention to the leader's contributions.
Media coverage of the leader takes on tones of reverence, that to outside observers,
seem genuinely strange.
The point of this process, beyond the obvious ego gratification,
is to make it psychologically difficult for citizens.
to imagine the country existing without the leader, since to imagine such a thing would require
them to imagine themselves as different people than the people they have been carefully shaped into.
The investment of the population in the leader's continued presence becomes, accordingly,
both political and personal, and the cost of opposing the leader rises correspondingly.
By the time citizens recognise that the cult has been built up around them, dismantling it,
requires not only political organisation but a kind of psychological reorientation,
that takes time and effort that few people have available.
The fifth pattern, which has been visible to varying degrees in every chapter,
is the centrality of fear management as the principal mechanism of social control.
None of these regimes managed to convince their entire population
that the official ideology was correct.
None of them, in fact, particularly tried.
What they tried instead was to make the cost of opposing the regime,
or even of being suspected of opposing it,
sufficiently high that the calculation of personal risk overwhelmed any other consideration.
This is a different goal than ideological conversion and it is.
Importantly, much easier to accomplish.
You do not need to persuade everyone.
You only need to persuade enough people to occasionally arrest other people
that the rest of the population concludes, accurately, that organised opposition is unsafe.
The various surveillance systems we have described,
the informant networks, the prison systems, the public executions, the sudden disappearances,
all served this function. They produced across the population a steady awareness that certain
behaviours carried unacceptable risks. The behaviours did not need to be specified in advance.
The uncertainty itself was part of the point, because it caused people to err on the side
of caution in their daily decisions, and the cumulative effect of millions of such cautious decisions
was a society in which the regime appeared to enjoy enthusiastic support,
even when, as numerous post-fall surveys have demonstrated,
very little of the support had ever been genuine.
The sixth pattern concerns the relationship between the regime and the international community,
and it is perhaps the most uncomfortable of the patterns we have to discuss,
because it implicates the rest of the world in ways that the rest of the world has historically preferred not to examine.
In every case we have looked at tonight,
the regime's behaviour was known in considerable detail to foreign governments, to international institutions
and to the global press. The diplomatic cables of the period, when they have been declassified,
generally contain accurate assessments of what was happening, written by foreign service officers
who saw the situation clearly and reported it honestly. The journalism of the period, when you go
back and look at it, generally contains the relevant facts, distributed across various publications
and sometimes obscured by other priorities,
but available to anyone who wanted to find them.
The international institutions that nominally existed to address these situations,
the various bodies that issued condemnations and resolutions and reports,
generally produced documents that accurately catalogued the abuses they had been organized to address.
What did not happen, in most cases, was effective action based on this widely available information.
The reasons for this failure varied across cases.
Sometimes it was Cold War strategic calculation,
sometimes it was commercial interest in the resources controlled by the regime,
sometimes it was the simple difficulty of organising concerted multilateral action
against a sovereign government,
sometimes it was nothing more elevated than the limited bandwidth of public attention,
which moved on to other crises before any meaningful response could be assembled.
The result was that, in essentially every case,
the regime continued to operate for years or decades,
while everyone who mattered knew exactly what it was doing.
This is not, to be clear,
an argument that foreign intervention should have been more aggressive in every one of these cases.
The historical record on foreign interventions is, to put it gently, mixed,
and the case we examined of the regime that was eventually removed by an invading army
does not exactly recommend that approach as a general solution.
The point is more limited and more honest.
The world, in nearly every case, knew, the international community possessed sufficient information
to identify what was happening. The choice not to act was a choice, not a discovery made years
later when the documents finally came to light. To the extent that future generations will
examine the moral record of the early 21st century, they will probably find that this question
of what we knew, and when we chose to do nothing about it, will figure prominently in their
assessment. A seventh pattern that emerges from the material is the strange psychological consistency
of the leaders themselves at the end of their careers. Whatever the specific manner in which their
regimes ended, the figures we examined showed a remarkable similarity in their own self-assessment
during their final years. They did not, on the whole, express regret. They did not acknowledge that
the suffering they had caused was disproportionate to whatever objectives they had been pursuing.
they did not in their interviews, their memoirs or their final statements,
except the accounts that historians and survivors had compiled
of what had occurred under their rule.
They maintained, instead, a steady conviction that they had been misunderstood,
that the historical record was distorted by their enemies,
that their populations had loved them,
and would have continued to love them,
if not for the interference of foreign powers,
and that future evaluations would eventually correct
what they regarded as the unjust verdicts of contemporary observance.
observers. This pattern is not, I think, evidence of any particular psychological pathology. It is more
likely evidence of the necessary structural condition of being able to make the decisions these figures
made in the first place. A person whose conscience could absorb the actual scale of what these regimes
did would not generally be able to keep functioning at the head of one. The leaders accordingly
had to be people whose mental architecture was unusually well insulated against the human consequences
of their decisions, and the same insulation that allowed them to keep operating during their time in power
continue to operate during their retirement. They did not feel guilty because, in the most literal sense,
the apparatus that would have produced guilt had been carefully suppressed long ago in service of more
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There is one more pattern related to the previous one that deserves brief attention because it has
implications for how these stories continue to be discussed. In several of our cases, the leader's
reputation in his own country has, in the year since his fall, undergone a partial rehabilitation.
There are people in the country we discussed in our second chapter, who today maintain that
things were better in his time. There are people in the country of our third chapter who holds
similar views. Polls in various countries we have examined produce stubborn percentages of
respondents who, decades after the events, express positive views of leaders who's actually
are extensively documented. This phenomenon is sometimes ascribed to nostalgia,
sometimes to the ongoing manipulation of national memory by political successes,
and sometimes to the simple effects of generational change as people who did not personally
experience the worst of these regimes form their opinions on the basis of second-hand accounts.
Whatever the exact causes, the result is that the work of historical accounting is never
quite finished. The verdicts on these figures, even decades after their death,
remains partially contested, partially incomplete, and partially subject to political pressures that
have nothing to do with the historical record. The lesson, which is itself uncomfortable,
is that the moral conclusions we might want to draw from these stories are not as stable as we would
like them to be. The same patterns that allowed these regimes to be built can, in modified form,
work to soften the historical memory of them long after they are gone. There is one further
pattern that runs across the cases we have looked at, and that deserves brief attention before we
close, because it complicates any account of these regimes that frames them solely as the work of
individual leaders. None of the men we examined tonight could have done what they did alone.
Each of them were supported in the work of running their respective regimes by enormous numbers
of subordinates, ranging from senior officials at the top to ordinary clerks at the bottom.
The actual machinery of repression in each case required tens of thousands of participants
and in some cases hundreds of thousands, including not only soldiers and security officers
but also judges, prosecutors, prison administrators, doctors who certified the cause of death on official forms,
journalists who wrote what they were told to write, school principals who reported the
politically suspect families in their districts, accountants who managed the budgets of detention
facilities and engineers who designed the buildings in which the worst things happened.
These were not, on the whole, monsters. They were ordinary people who had ordinary jobs and went
home at the end of the day to their ordinary families. The systems they operated functioned
because of their participation, and the systems would have collapsed considerably faster than
they did if even a meaningful minority of these participants had refused to perform their assigned
roles. Many of these participants were themselves living under threat, working with
compartmentalized information, making the kinds of accommodations human beings have always made
under duress. But the system depended on their cooperation regardless of the moral weight of any
individual decision. What this means, however, is that the project of preventing future catastrophes
of this kind cannot be reduced to the project of identifying future leaders who might cause
them. It also requires sustained attention to the conditions under which large numbers of
ordinary people decide that going along with something is the path of least resistance.
Those conditions are not exotic. They are the same conditions, in modified form, that operate in
any organisation at any time, hierarchies, career incentives, social pressure, the desire not to make
trouble, the desire not to be marked as a difficult person, the hope that someone else will
speak up first. These ordinary features of ordinary institutional life become, under the
conditions we have been examining, the operating mechanisms by which extraordinary harm gets done.
Recognising this is uncomfortable, because it implies that the line between functional bureaucratic
compliance and complicity in something terrible is, in certain situations, considerably thinner
than we usually want to acknowledge. But it is also, in its own way, useful, because it focuses
attention on the specific moments and the specific decisions at which ordinary people might,
with some effort, act differently than the conditions are pressing them to act.
What does any of this mean for someone watching this documentary tonight,
in whatever country and whatever time zone you happen to be in?
The honest answer is that the patterns we have identified are not specific predictors.
They will not tell you, with any reliability,
whether your own country is heading toward the kind of catastrophe we have examined.
The patterns are necessary conditions for these regimes,
but they are not in themselves sufficient.
Many countries have experienced economic crises, identified internal scapegoats, weakened independent
institutions and built up cults around their leaders without proceeding all the way to the kinds of
outcomes we have been describing. The patterns, in other words, are warning signs rather than
guarantees. Their presence in any specific situation indicates that something has gone wrong,
but does not, by itself, indicate that everything will go wrong. The historical record is full of
situations in which countries displayed several of these warning signs and then, through some
combination of luck, leadership, and the resilience of their existing institutions recovered
without descending into the worst possible outcomes. That said, the warning signs are real,
and the patterns are stable enough across the cases we have examined that they probably deserve
more attention than they typically receive an ordinary political conversation.
When the leadership of a country begins to explain its difficulties primarily in terms of
identifiable internal enemies, when independent courts find their decisions ignored or their
jurisdictions narrowed, when journalists are subjected to systematic harassment that would have
been considered unacceptable, a decade earlier, when the leader's biography begins to be revised in
ways that flatter the official version of events. When the population becomes generally cautious
about discussing politics in front of acquaintances, they do not know well. These are signals
worth paying attention to. They are not proof that catastrophe is coming. They are evidence that the
conditions under which catastrophe historically arrives are present in the local environment. The other
observation that emerges from the material, and which I want to mention before we close,
concerns the moments at which intervention is actually possible. In nearly every chapter we
examined tonight, there was a window during which the trajectory could have been changed,
often a window of several years, during which the institutions of the country still exist,
in functional form, the press still worked, the court still had some independence, and ordinary
politics still provided some space for organised opposition. These windows were not always recognised
at the time. People living through them often experienced the period as ordinary politics,
as a difficult but recoverable phase of their country's life, as something less serious than what it
eventually turned out to be. By the time the seriousness became fully apparent, the windows had
typically closed. The institutions had been hollowed out. The opposition had been intimidated into
silence. The international community had moved on to other concerns. The early period, the period when
something might have been done, had passed, often unrecognised, while everyone went about their
normal lives. This is not, I want to emphasise, an argument that vigilance can prevent every bad
outcome. It cannot. The forces that produce these regimes are larger than any individual citizen,
larger than any single newsroom or court or activist organization,
and the responsibility for what happens in any particular country, in any particular era,
cannot fairly be placed on the shoulders of the people who are trying to do their ordinary work
while history was unfolding around them.
The argument is more limited.
The argument is that recognising the patterns earlier provides, at minimum, a slightly better
chance of acting effectively while it still matters.
people who can identify what they are seeing have on average more useful options than people who cannot.
This is not much. It is, however, considerably more than nothing.
The ten regimes we have walked through tonight produced by the rough cumulative arithmetic
somewhere between 100 and 130 million deaths over the course of the century during which they operated.
The exact figure is impossible to fix with certainty, because the categories overlap,
The records are incomplete and the methodologies disagree, but the order of magnitude is clear.
The regimes were, collectively, the largest single source of non-natural human death
during a century in which non-natural human death was, by historical standards,
already running at unprecedented levels.
The figure is genuinely difficult to contemplate.
It exceeds, by some margin, the combined battlefield deaths of every army in every war
fought during the same century. It represents, in human terms, an entire civilizational
catastrophe distributed across multiple countries and multiple decades, and it was produced in
essentially every case, not by external forces invading and conquering populations, but by
leaders making decisions about their own citizens while the rest of the world watched and
chose, for whatever reason, not to interfere. The deeper takeaway, if there is one, is that
the conditions which produced these regimes are not unique to the
specific countries or specific historical moments where the regimes appeared.
The conditions are instead persistent features of the way human societies organize themselves
under stress. Different countries have, at different times, displayed varying degrees of resistance
to these conditions, depending on the particular historical resources they had available,
including the strength of their existing institutions, the cultural traditions they had inherited,
the quality of their political leadership at the moment of crisis, and a substantial component of
plain luck. There is no country, however historically stable, that is permanently immune to the
patterns we have described. There is also no country, however turbulent, that is necessarily destined
to follow them all the way through to the worst possible outcomes. The question is always one of
trajectory, of which way the various pressures are pushing the country at any given moment,
and of what resources the country has available to push back against trajectories that are
headed somewhere bad. This is in the end why the study of these regimes continues to matter,
even as the specific figures we examine tonight recede further into the historical past.
The figures themselves are not coming back, the dead are not coming back. The countries they
ruined are in most cases still recovering, sometimes well and sometimes badly, and the work of
recovery will continue for generations, regardless of what observers in other parts of the world
choose to do or not to do about it. What can usefully
come back, however, is the lessons we drew or failed to draw from their stories. The mistakes
that allowed these regimes to be built, the moments when intervention might have been possible,
the warning signs that were visible at the time and were not acted upon, all of this material
remains available to anyone willing to study it carefully. What we do with that material is,
for any generation that has access to it, a continuing responsibility. The next leader of
this kind, whoever and wherever they turn out to be,
will not be a complete surprise to anyone who has read the histories of the previous ones carefully.
The patterns are too consistent for that.
The question, when the time comes, will be whether enough people remember the patterns
clearly enough to recognise them in real time, and whether the institutions of whatever
country happens to be at risk are strong enough to respond before the windows for response
have closed.
Tonight we have spent some time together looking at ten countries that did not, in their
respective moments, managed to find that response in time.
their stories are accordingly cautionary rather than reassuring.
They tell us what can go wrong and what does go wrong
when the conditions align in particular ways
and the available counter-forces prove inadequate.
But they also tell us by the simple fact of having ended
that even the worst of these regimes did eventually come to a stop,
that no system of repression, however thoroughly constructed,
has so far proven entirely permanent
and that human societies have a stubborn tendency
over long enough time horizons to recover from even the most determined attempts to break them.
The recovery is never complete.
The damage is never fully repaired.
The dead remain dead.
But the countries at least in most cases are still there.
The pearl of Africa is still being polished.
The capitals that were built around the cult are slowly becoming ordinary capitals again.
The orphanages have been emptied.
The labour camps in most places have been closed.
The work of memory continues.
slowly and imperfectly across generations.
Thank you for staying with me through this long journey tonight.
We have covered a lot of ground, in a lot of countries,
across roughly a century of difficult history.
I hope, despite the heaviness of the material,
that you found something useful in it,
something that gave shape to questions
you may have been turning over in your own mind,
or something that helped place a few of the historical figures
you may have heard about in slightly clearer context.
The patterns are not encouraging,
but the fact that we can identify them at all,
that we have access to the documents and the testimonies,
and the photographic records that allow these stories to be told
is itself evidence that we are, at least at this moment,
in a better position than the populations who lived through these regimes were when they began.
That is not nothing.
It is, in fact, a real resource,
and the question of what we do with it remains, as it always remains, open.
Now go ahead and let yourself rest.
The world tonight, like every night, is doing what it has always done,
which is rolling slowly forward through its own complicated history,
while most of its inhabitants try to get through their ordinary days
without any particular drama.
Most of those ordinary days in most countries in most years
do not turn out to be the days when anything especially terrible happens.
The terrible days when they come are the exception rather than the rule,
and the rule is the long, slow, gentle accumulation of mostly uneventful evenings,
like this one, in which people fall asleep in their familiar beds
and wake up in their familiar lives.
So settle in, breathe out,
let the worries of the day soften into the dark
and let yourself drift off into whatever dreams
the night happens to bring you.
Good night and sweet dreams wherever you are.
