Oscars Outsider - Final Oscar Nomination Predictions (Plus a Wild Oscar Fantasy Trade)

Episode Date: January 21, 2026

With Oscar nominations just a day away, we lock in our final predictions for who will be nominated, not who will win.This clip comes from our sister show, The Oscars Outsider Podcast, where we go deep on the Best Picture race, debating locks, vulnerable contenders, international wildcards, and whether an animated film like K-Pop Demon Hunters could actually crack the final ten. We also dig into surprise possibilities like F1, Blue Moon, and where films like Train Dreams, Begonia, and The Secret Agent really stand.What starts as a prediction draft quickly turns into something else entirely: a live trade negotiation that reshapes both of our Best Picture slates and forces us to confront what really matters on nomination morning.If you want the full conversation, including our complete predictions, historical Oscar context, and the chaos that followed, you can find it on The Oscars Outsider Podcast.

for that blockbuster spot in the best picture conversation do. All right. Interesting. What about you? Do you have any like wild ideas as to what we might see? Not really. No. I think if I was going to like go a little off the board for like a best picture nominee,

I would maybe go with Blue Moon as like the like the very left field, very unlikely one that could sneak into the race. I just think that that there's just been a lot of, like I think Ethan Hawks are a lock to get a best actor nomination. And I think that there's just been enough chatter about his performance that it could, kind of like you said about the secret agent, like just the talk about Wagner Murrah's performance alone could be enough to get it into the best picture conversation.

I think Ethan Hawks' performance alone could be enough to get Blue Moon into the best picture conversation. So give me your, Give me your 10. I haven't actually written it down, but okay, let's do this. So we've got one battle after another. We've got sinners. We've got Hamnet.

We've got Marty Supreme. Frankenstein, I think, is very much in there now. As much as I doubted it earlier on, you were right to be high on Frankenstein. I'll give that to you, which is why I tried to steal it. So we got those five, which are in there very strong. after that I start to get a little bit musher. I think in terms of the international Omnis, sentimental value, I think is in there.

Then I get, yeah, I'm really just not sure. I'm willing to call sentimental value. I'm really not sure between Surrott, the secret agent. It was just an accident, possibly no other choice, which one of those will kind of be a second. Assuming there's going to be two international films because the last few years they've been done two. But let's go with,

well, I've done six. Let's do a train dreams. We'll do a train dreams. And Avatar, I'm still going Avatar for one. Did that make nine? And then I only did sentimental for international. I would give it to Bogonia, probably for the last slot then. Okay.

Yeah. So for my tent, I think it's going to be one battle after another. Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, sentimental value, Marty Supreme, Bagonia, I agree that is probably going to be in there. That's what, seven. The secret agent, and that is eight. And then, yeah, let's go F1 and K-pop Devin Hunters as the last two spots. And I feel like we don't see it was just an accident or no other choice.

I feel like those are going to get left off the board. I don't see weapons being in there. And I feel like we might not see train dreams in there. yeah it might be vulnerable i um yeah i also i guess just ended up with just sentimental value it's the only foreign film but i think um yeah earlier on i mean i picked up it was just an accident i was like palm door winner the they've picked the pond door winner the last couple years i am feeling a little bit stronger about it now because i'm hoping like iran being in the news uh is a thing that that that plays well for the iranian movie that people are going to want to

to be like rallying behind Jafar Panahi and supporting his, his crusade against the unjust regime, which has now ordered him to be arrested for, what, a second or third time. So hopefully that that gives him a bit of a boost. So that's kind of one reason why. I was considering including it was just an accident in a trade proposal,

but actually it was because I was like thinking of the current events angle that I was like, you know what? I think that's a holder. So I think there's, I'm still, you know, like it wasn't in my 10 predictions, but I still think it has the best shot after sentimental value in terms of international movies, I think ahead of the secret agent. That's what I'll say. Yeah, I think that that makes sense. And in terms of the rest of the categories, I don't really see any, any real surprises that I'm expecting. So, you know, that means that I'm ripe for being

surprised. Well, we'll do a, we'll do a full reaction once they actually do come out in just a few days. Okay, so we interrupt this programming for a trade conversation. Let's see if this can go anywhere. I want to let you know that I am going to put sentimental value up on the trade block and see whether that interests you at all. I, you know what? I saw this coming because I, when we're talking about the trade proposals earlier, you had mentioned that you thought sentimental value was slipping and that you saw the secret agent as maybe having a better shot at best picture at this point. So I definitely kept that in the back of my mind and was thinking of circling back around to it, though we never got to it in the original recording. I'm definitely interested.

So I would be interested in posing sentimental value for maybe begonia. I'm interested. I'm interested in Begonia or Wicked even? Yeah, I would even do a straight-up trade for Wicked for sentimental value. I'm not too sure about that because like we did our last trade discussion, it wasn't total bluster when I was saying I see Wicked as potentially getting four or five, six nominations. I do see that, even if it's not getting best picture. If sentimental value gets best picture, that might alone give it a higher value. That's a very interesting proposal. I'm definitely mulling it over just because of the best picture factor.

To be totally honest with you, yes, I do see sentimental value as having a better chance of making best picture at this point, which I definitely didn't when we first did the draft back in early December. Right. But we did weigh it so that a best picture is more valuable. I'm just not high on sentimental values acting nomination chances anymore. Hmm. Yeah, you know what? I'm down. I'm down. I'll do it. Straight up, Wicked for good for sentimental value one to one.

I'm ready to do it. Yeah. Okay. There we go. We've got a trade. I'm definitely, yeah, definitely hesitating, but it's the best picture factor. I see sentimental value as having higher best picture factor. I definitely, I'm hesitating about losing out on some, you know, songs and production design nominations. but if I do think it has a better shot our best picture, yeah, let's do it. I had to shake things up, you know? I had to shake things up. I'm losing. I'm trailing.

The gap's just going to get bigger if the nominations shake out in a certain way. I had to shake something up. So yeah, I'm willing to take that bait. Let's do it. Let's see how that plays out. Okay, let's do it. We now return you to your regular scheduled programming. You know what?

Let me just throw something else in here while we're talking. Okay, let's do it. Yeah. Because when I was just re-listening to what we said, and when I listed my best picture nominees, I only listed nine. I am just going to say that the 10th nominee would be, it was just an accident. I didn't say that was going to be one of my picks for nominees when we did it, but I only listed nine.

So my number 10 is going to be, it was just an accident. That means I'm giving that higher odds than the secret agent. Basically, that's what it came down to be for me was what the second best picture nominee for a foreign film was going to be. I picks had a bit of value already, which is. now fill my own. I'll give the second one to it. It was just an accident. So just to clear that up, that rounds out my slate of best picture predictions.