Oscars Outsider - Our WAY TOO EARLY Oscars Fantasy Draft: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Episode Date: December 9, 2025

Welcome to Oscars Outsider, a limited-run awards-season spinoff from the team behind Bravo Outsider. Each year we obsess over the Oscars, the gossip, the precursors, and the chaos — so this season we’re making it official.In this episode, Craig and Dylan kick things off with our WAY-too-early Oscars Fantasy Draft, recorded before the Golden Globes nominations drop. With almost no precursor data and only vibes to guide us, we each draft a slate of eight films, plus bonus actor picks, to see who can predict the most nominations and wins across:The OscarsThe Golden GlobesThe BAFTAsPGA, DGA, WGA, and SAGWe break down the scoring system, discuss how narratives build over awards season, and argue about which contenders are real, which are smoke, and which sleepers might surge once the discourse machine kicks in.You can find full rules and scoring on our website:👉 https://oscarsoutsider.comAnd check out our sister podcast, Bravo Outsider, where we analyze the social strategy of Bravo’s biggest shows:👉 https://bravooutsider.com👉    / @bravooutsider  What We Cover in This EpisodeWhy we're launching Oscars Outsider this yearHow our Oscars Fantasy Draft works (nominations, wins, bonuses, swaps)Early awards-season vibes before the precursor wave hitsThe risk of drafting before the Golden GlobesPredictions, overreactions, and completely unearned confidenceWhich films could surge — or collapse — once the discourse sets inOur male + female acting picksOur “snub prediction” bonus roundFollow & SubscribeOscars Outsider – YouTube, podcast apps, and oscarsoutsider.comBravo Outsider – YouTube + all major podcast platformsFollow us on social for episode drops and awards-season chaos

And this will come as a surprise to no one with number one pick. I'm choosing K-pop. No, I'm choosing one battle after another. Yeah, that's what I would have taken two. I would have taken two. I don't think it's all over. I do think there's a wild card in here, though. I could see things going a little sideways, though,

because I do think that Paul Thomas Anderson's treatment, his sexualization of black woman is very potentially thorny in the movie. And I think that hasn't been a big deal yet. But as we get towards Oscar season, you know, you've got to predict like who's going to try to sling mud for what reasons. I think we're going to start hearing a lot more and more different voices trying to raise the prospect that his sexualization of black women is problematic. And that could make the discourse really swirl out of control. Hey, welcome to Oscars Outsider. This is going to be the first preliminary preview episode of Oscars Outsider.

So let me explain. It's me, Dylan Ferguson. And with me is Craig Midwinter. Hey, the Bravo Outsider crew. So we're doing a bit of a spin-off this year. The last couple of years of Bravo Outsider, we've done special Oscars episode just before the Academy Award ceremony aired, not really because it has anything to do with Bravo reality TV,

but just because we absolutely love the Oscars, the gossip, the build-up, the odds, all the culture and history and drama surrounding it. So this year we thought we'd spin it off into a little mini-series that will run through a series. the movie award season living up to Hollywood's biggest night. Tonight we have a bit of a special episode that's going to kind of set the table for what's going to come later on once award season really gets kicked into the high

gear. We are kind of on the cusp of award season, right, Craig? Like at this point in the gather, we're recording this on Sunday night, December 7th. Today we had the Critics Choice Awards nominations be released. and tomorrow is when the Golden Globes nominations come out. So they're likely already out by the time you're listening to this. But we have not heard the Golden Globes nominations yet.

We're trying to get this out when there's as little information as possible, as little nominations or wins as possible right before awards season starts properly. And the reason why that's important is that we're going to be playing a game here. We're going to be doing a sort of draft, kind of like a fantasy sports draft, where we're going to be staking our claims to certain films and picking which films are going to be the ones that garner the most nominations and most importantly the most awards. Not just in the Oscars, though most importantly in the Oscars, of course. This is primarily an Oscars show. But we're also going to be awarding some points for what we call the precursor awards.

That means, yes, the Golden Globes, also the BAFTAs and the Guild Awards. So the Producers Guild Awards, the Directors Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild. So those six award ceremonies are what we call the precursor awards. So we're going to be awarding some points for correctly predicting nominations and wins for those. And then a lot more points when we finally get to Hollywood's biggest night. Yeah, I am so excited for this, Dylan. And as I was thinking about this going in, like you said, we always do our Oscars. show. And I think one of the things that kind of makes it fit with what we do at Bravo Outsider is

that we always talk about how reality TV kind of sits at this crossroad between art and sport. And I think that the Oscars does as well in a very different way. But just my need to thematically like tie things together just brought up that thought. So I'm super excited. I do play fantasy hockey. So I am very familiar with the fantasy sport structure. And this is just ticking so many boxes for me. I can't wait. Yeah, yeah. I don't play fantasy sports,

but I do love the idea of gamifying it. Like I get really into predicting the Oscars every year. So I love the opportunity to just stake a claim really early and have it on record and then cross my fingers and hopefully it plays out. The award season is really fun because it can often feel like everybody kind of has an idea of what's going to happen. But that's often not really the case. So that's the kind of thing where, like, you have hindsight.

By the time you get at the ceremony, you'll be like, oh, yeah, everybody knew that movie was going to win. But if you really go back like three months earlier when the award season started, things can can really shift. They can really shift. As an example, I think if we did this last year and we were recording at the same time, you know, early December, three months out of the Oscars, we would probably be talking about Amelia Perez as the number one candidate to win best picture at the Oscars.

Because I think it absolutely was at that point with maybe the Brutalist in like the number two position. And then of course by the time we actually got the Oscars, Amelia Perez had been mired in scandal and a serious critical reappraisal and was almost a non-factor. The Brutalist picked up a couple. But, you know, obviously, Anora carried the night, which was not really, I think, seen as a big player, like at the start of award season, Conclave wasn't really seen as a huge player and that ended up being a big factor of the Oscars. These things do shift, is my point. They do shift throughout the season. Yeah. So we're not just talking about like,

which movies are the most buzzed right now. We're also trying to predict which movies we think will be the most buzzed in a couple months once things really start getting ramped up. Once the Hollywood Press, machine sides are really rolling out once there's, you know, more commentary and think pieces and all that stuff, all that that swirling mess of culture that constitutes award season. Yeah, because like you said, it's a long campaign season. It's not just about the precursors. It's about the press events and just the narratives that build momentum and, you know, the rises and fall. There's a ton of drama. And so I can't wait and I'm looking forward to seeing how our picks turn out. Yeah, yeah. Okay, so should I just quickly go over like what the structure of the game

we're going to be playing. Yeah, let's do it. Okay. So we're scoring points. We're each going to be drafting eight movies. We're going to take turns drafting from which ones we think are going to be actual Oscars players. So we're going to end up each with a bench of eight films that were counting on to really get a lot of nominations and especially get a lot of awards, especially in the Oscars. Again, just to remind you, when I say precursors awards, we're talking about the Golden Globe. the BAFTAs, the Seigs, the Producers Guild of America Awards, the Director's Guild of America Awards, and the Writers Guild of America Awards. Those six ceremonies are what I will refer to as the precursors. So for all the precursor awards, if a movie that you have on your bench wins best picture or an equivalent to best picture,

you know, in the Golden Globes, they split that off into dramatic picture and musical comedy. Both of those will be scored equally as Beck's picture for us. Writers Guild Award has a best ensemble cast. We'll consider that the equivalent. So best picture, if you get a nomination for one of your films, that is four points. For a win, that is eight points added on top of that. For all other categories for the precursors, two points for a nomination, plus four points for a win. Then we get to the Oscars, which, by the way, is Hollywood's biggest night. If you have a film that gets a best picture nomination, that is eight points.

And if that wins best picture, a whopping 20 points. So as it should be, big windfall if you pick the actual Oscar winning best picture. And then we have kind of a different scoring system for the different awards based on kind of the level of importance that are attached to them. Best director, seven points for a nomination, 12 for a win. All of the acting awards. So, you know, the four different acting awards. Six for a nomination, 10 for a win. For the two different screenplay awards, for each of those, it is five for a nomination, eight for a win.

And then for all the other craft awards, all those. things down the bottom of the lineup, three for a nomination six for a win. So lots of points in play once we actually get to the Oscars, but there will be one of us who is like riding high on the other just based on the precursors heading into that night, which some might say is Hollywood's biggest. So a couple bonuses, a couple ways you can score a few little sprinkling of extra points, which who knows might tilt things down the line. If one of your last round picks gets an Oscar nomination. So the one that you pick eight, you get a little plus two. That's the value bonus. If you pick an international movie and it gets a nomination outside of the international film category at

the Oscars only, you get a little plus one for that. If you pick an animated movie that gets a nomination outside the best animated film category at the Oscars, that's a plus three for that one, since that's a kind of a rare thing these days. Also, at the end of this, we're going to throw it a little bonus for actors. At the end, each player will get to draft one male. and one female actor. We will not make distinctions between supporting or leading actors for this. And you'll get two points for a nomination

and four points for a win in each of the precursors, three points for a nomination and six points for a win in the Oscars. Does that make sense? That makes sense to me, but I have read the rule. So we'll set up a little website that has this. And in the show notes,

once it's all up, I will put a link. Yeah. So that's a lot of stuff that I'm just throwing at you right there. Let's get to the important stuff. We're going to talk movies. We're going to talk actors. We're going to try to keep this as quick as possible because we've got other shows coming up. We're going to go more in depth into this stuff.

We will be doing some film reviews too since we are kind of film nerd guys and like to talk about movies and whether we actually like them or not, not just as racehorses. Though tonight we're mostly talking about them as race horses because that's what the game is about. I thought of something that might be fun. we could have an additional bonus where we select something that we think is going to completely miss and get snubbed. Ooh. Because there are some movies that I think had early buzz that I feel like are going to completely miss. Yeah.

The problem of that is though, is like from what list do we pick to choose the movies as snubs? Would it be from the other person's list? Is that what we should do? Yeah, we could do it that way. We can do that at the end. Once the lists are fixed, we can, we can pick one of the other person's movies to say that it gets nothing. Nothing at the Oscars. Nothing at the Oscars.

No nominations for anything at the Oscars. Right. Yeah. Okay. I like that. What should we say? Should we give it like a plus five for that or something? Yeah.

Okay. Let's do it. We'll do that at the end too. All right. Lots of fun bonuses and play. Okay. So let's do a coin toss. Do you have a coin handy?

I do. Yep. Yep. I've got a fun. a Canadian quarter here. All right. So you call it heads or tails. I won't cheat.

I promise. Okay. Heads. All right. That looks like a head. Okay. All right. So what we said that we're going to do here is that since Craig gets a slight leg up because

he gets to pick first, that means that at the end of this, when we do the actors bonus, I will pick my male and female actors for the bonus before he gets to pick his male and female, as a little tiny thing to maybe even out any potential advantage he has by picking first. We thought of everything. Okay. And this will come as a surprise to no one with number one pick. I'm choosing K-pop.

No, I'm choosing one battle after another. I think that that is my favorite and the early favorite to make a big splash on Hollywood's biggest night. Yeah, that's what I would have taken two. I would have taken two. I don't think it's all over. I don't think it's necessarily going to be like an Oppenheimer level. We see it coming months in advance. Paul Tamas Anderson doesn't have an Oscar yet. And I feel like we're probably going to hear that over and over again. Leading up to the Oscars that he has 11 nominations and no wins. A lot of acting nominations could be in play for that. I could see it potentially at the Oscars getting a nom in all four acting categories. That's definitely a possibility, I think. For sure. There's definite narrative there. There's a lot of Hollywood goodwill and it's just a great movie. So I think it's a real strong contender. I think it might benefit from the desire that a lot of people in Hollywood have to pick something that's like an anti-Trump movie. I think there's going to be a lot of desire in Hollywood for that. I think some people in the early going thought that they would be able to do that with Amelia Perez last year before they started to realize. like, oh, wait, you mean

Mexicans and trans people don't like the movie? Damn, can't do that anymore. But I think a lot of people are really going to try to embrace the message of it being like an anti-fascism movie to try to be seen as being on the right side of history

and doing something that pisses Trump off. I do think there's a wild card in here, though. I could see things going a little sideways, though, because I do think that Paul Thomas Anderson's treatment, his sexualization of black woman is very potentially thorny in the movie. And I think that hasn't been a big deal yet. But as we get towards Oscar season, you know, you've got to predict like who's going to try to sling mud for what reasons. I think we're going to start hearing a lot

more and more different voices trying to raise the prospect that his sexualization of black woman is problematic. And that could make the discourse really swirl out of control. So I predict that happening as we get closer to Oscar season. I'm not necessarily saying I'm predicting that's going to like tank its chances of winning best picture. I don't think so. I do think it is the clear front runner and will remain. So I'm just saying I think the discourse is probably going to get messy and potentially

out of hand for that reason, specifically about, you know, how this white man is presenting black women. Yeah. No, I totally agree. But that's going to be someone to watch for. Who do you got for number two? Number two. So I'm debating between two different options here, but ultimately I'm going to go with Hamnet.

Okay. Yeah. I think it feels very cozy Oscar friendly. It feels like the kind of thing that could like kind of sneak through between two other competitors if there's kind of too much mudslinging and discourse among the other competitors. it could be the kind of thing like a Coda or a green book. You know, like this sort of movie that that's the kind of crowd pleaser, the sentimental option that really builds up steam down the line because maybe the movies that were seen as bigger front runners beforehand

that are more complex or politically charged and that starts to turn some people off or make some people not want to vote for them because it becomes like a discourse pick, a politicized pick. I could see that sneaking through. and becoming the front runner just because it has that kind of like familiar, cozy sentimental vibe. Based on the trailers and the way people talk about it, I haven't seen the movie yet.

But, you know, that's the way it's being presented. Yeah, I totally agree. I was wrestling with two movies, probably the same two movies you were to pick next. And I would have picked the other one. So I'm happy to pick in number three,

Marty Supreme. Oh. Oh, It was not the movie that you were? That's not the rest of it. Interesting. Yeah. Okay.

Yeah. I think that there's a lot of momentum around Timmy. It's being very hyped by club shamalay and early reviews. Early reviews seem like relatively positive. So I have not seen this one yet. But I expect that it is probably going to be in the conversation for at least some acting awards and definitely in the best picture list. Yeah, definitely imagine it being on best picture. Acting, we could maybe say that Timmy is front runner at this point, maybe,

probably too early to call front runners, but he's going to be nominated and he's got to be one of the front runners anyway. So he's, that could be a role that, you know, picks up wins all through the awards season at every ceremony. Best picture, I don't know. We'll see. I mean, the movie's not even out yet, but that's a strong pick. With my number two pick in that case, I'm going to go with the other one I'm considering for my number one pick, and that's sinners. Okay. I see sinners as a huge player up and down the different categories. Again, I think there's a lot of desire to pick a black movie as like kind of an anti-conservative pick.

And I think a lot of people just loved sinners. They loved the kind of energy and creativeness of it. There's going to be acting nominations in play. There's got to be screenplay nominations in play. there could be things like sound design. I could see it racking up a lot of war. That is going to be a player in the craft. And I see it as a player for Best Picture.

I see that as a big one moving forward. Yeah, that is a good pick. I had that a bit lower on my list. But yeah, I think that that's wrong. What do you think about the timing of the release since it was a relatively early in the year release? Do you think it's going to have momentum? Yeah, that could definitely

heard it, but it's not a killer. We have seen movies released earlier in the year. Still managed to pull it off. I think a lot of people are going to circle around back to it just because it did have kind of a crowd pleasing aspect to it. Yes, kind of the elephant in the room is that it's a horror movie. And it's very, very rare for horror movies to do well. The Oscars, though not unheard of. We've seen Silence of the Lamb Winbest picture. We've seen big turnouts for like the exorcist in the past. I mean, the substance last year was a ton of buzz. Yeah, get out. was a strong contender in its year. I just think that combined with the fact that it is kind of a spectacle movie.

That's also extremely well received by a filmmaker, a lot of people like with subject matter that a lot of people enjoy. That does check that box of being like right side of history, political movie, but does not feel like a political movie. For most people, it's just kind of like a really fun spectacle. Like obviously it wasn't the one I went with number one,

but I could really see that being a heavy hitter. So I know that Coogler had a kind of unique deal surrounding the rights for this movie. Do you think that there's any like repercussions from sort of bucking the studio system within the voting body? Yeah, that's really interesting. So just for people who don't know, you're referring to the fact that I think it's after like 15 years or something, the rights revert back to Ryan Cougler personally. So the studio currently Warner Brothers, so eventually will be Netflix once the deal is closed, they do not get to keep the rights for the movie indefinitely.

It reverts back to Ryan Coogler, which is super unusual. I think Tarantino negotiated something similar for once upon a time in Hollywood. That's like the only other case I'm aware of of a filmmaker doing that, which is obviously something only an extremely powerful filmmaker is able to pull off. It's interesting. And he just gets points off the front. So he made a ton off of the box office, I believe. Yeah.

It's interesting because it depends who the voting body is for that, right? Because like the producers don't like that because the producers want to keep it at house. But for writers and directors who also vote on awards, they love that stuff. And that might even make him more of like a folk hero kind of, especially in the shadow of Netflix recently announcing that they are closing the deal to buy Warner Brothers. which has distributed sinners. And there's a lot more anxiety about, you know, theatrical releases and stuff. People who are on the creative end of things and not on the money end of things

are really going to be, be wanting to promote Kugler as somebody who is pointing away to a business model, which might help the authors of works steal their works away from those greedy corporations that are trying to put everything on streaming and, and do whatever they want with them. So with my next pick, I am going to go with sentimental value. Oh, okay. All right.

Interesting. Interesting for a third pick. Tell me more. Okay. So I just feel like there's a lot of momentum here. It's a very, like, emotional movie. I can see us getting at least some actor, actress, noms for, like, Stellan, El Fanning was fantastic in the Bob Dylan biopic.

So I think that she might be able to carry some goodwill in the, in a supporting actress nomination race. And I think that there is a growing appetite for kind of the foreign language or a blended language film. And I just see this being something that voter. will feel a bit more sophisticated voting for. So I think it could generate some momentum based on that narrative. So maybe a little bit of a dark horse.

I wanted to get it early. And it ended up being hoisted above some other picks that I think might be penalized as a result of the Netflix Warner Brothers deal. Interesting. Also, a movie about filmmaking. and you know they love to vote for those they those often get kind of an inside track Hollywood loves to vote on movies about well usually about Hollywood this isn't specifically about Hollywood but it's a movie about filmmaking and you know they love that stuff they love

those things that kind of flatter their sense of self-importance and and definitely has as the title implies a lot of that sentimental edge that that is something that I highlighted as an aspect that would get hamlet it and inside track you know sentimental movies often do have that kind of that space to move towards the front. And you're right about saying that there's kind of more of an appetite for foreign movies. I think lately we've seen in the past few Oscars. It used to be pretty rare to have a foreign movie among the best picture nominees. The past few years, we've seen like two per year getting in there.

If a movie like does well at Khan that used to have zero influence on the Oscars and the American film awards. Yeah. Not a Pomp Dore winner. I think it won the jury prize. The Pondor winner was that it was just an accident. But I won the jury prize or it wasn't the jury. But it did win a lot at Con.

It was really well received at Con. But I think that does position it strongly, which it might not have 10 years ago when you rarely saw these foreign films getting into the best picture. And we do give a little plus one bonus for foreign films too. So I don't know if that's part of your calculation, but that might help you down there. I definitely see it as a final list for best picture. I definitely see that. All right. So I'm on to my number three.

I'm going to do Avatar, Avatar, Fire, and Ash. Wow. Yeah. I want to lock that up. I want to lock up that value. I don't see it as a best picture winner. I'm not locking it up because I think that's totally what's winning best picture. I see it as one that racks up a lot of crafts awards.

Obviously, it's getting best visual effects. always do. I assume it's got to be among the best picture finalists because the previous two avatars were. So it just kind of tracks. It might be a bit risky to take it with with a third just because we know the avatar movies aren't getting acting nominations. That might hurt me using a third pick for something that's not going to get acting nominations. But it's going to get a lot of things for visual effects, sound design, maybe editing. Director could be in play for Cameron as well. I think there's just a lot of kind of supple. elemental value. So I wanted to lock that up before you did. Okay. So I am also going to pick

something that I think could potentially get some traction within the craft categories as well, but also I think is going to be in the conversation for the best picture. I don't think it's going to win best picture, but I think it's going to be, it's going to hang around and maybe be a bit more of a force than people are expecting. And that is Frankenstein. The Academy loves Del Toro, and I just think that this has some of the trappings of a dark horse, like, horror adjacent film that could entice the growing appetite of the Academy for horror. So I think maybe a bit more of a player than people are expecting right now, and that's why I want to grab it. Yep, that's that's a good pick. Like you said, could be a dark horse.

We've seen Del Toro win best picture before. I don't think that's going to happen with this one, but you mentioned that the Academy does. Like, you know, we saw his Pinocchio movie when, wasn't that just last year? No, two years ago. Two years ago. His Pinocchio movie won best animated, beating out, you know, Pixar stuff. So, yeah, he's, he's the kind of person that is really kind of appreciated in Hollywood. And that stuff is important, you know, which guys Hollywood likes is something you have to

into consideration. Yeah. And I mean, that was the story of last year with, with Enora too, right? Yeah. Yeah, exactly. All right. With my four pick, hmm, there's a couple different ways I can go with this. I'm debating between two here.

And I think I'm going to do one. I'm afraid that I'm maybe playing it a little too safe, but I'm going to take a pick that's going to be very similar to my avatar pick. I'm going to take Wicked with my number four, Wicked for good. similar thing in that I don't expect it to win best picture, but I expect it to be among the nominees. And I expected to take nominations and maybe a winner to further down the lineup. You know, the original song, we can give it one of those nominations right away. Costume design, production design. We can give those nominations right away.

Cynthia and Ariana could easily both get nominations once again for the same roles they got nominations for last year. It's definitely not a foregone conclusion, but at least in some of the, the precursors, if not in the Oscars, and very likely in the Oscars. So it's one that could rack up a lot of nominations down the road. So like with Avatar, it's just kind of one of those knowing properties that I want to have on my lineup. Yeah, I like that pick. I think you're right that it has a lot of, it's going to get a lot of nominations. I just, I don't believe in this movie this year. I feel like it doesn't have the legs. Like, We're already seeing it fall off hugely at the box office.

And I don't think that it's got the same momentum that it had last year. So I do think that we are going to see, we're going to see nominations. It's definitely going to win the brand new, like, best casting award that the Academy is introducing. Oh, I totally forgot about that. Yeah. But I don't see it really winning a ton. I think that it's a good pick for the nominations alone. Again, we're picking eight movies each.

So we've done four each. Now, let's get to the bottom of our rosters. What are our depth players? Craig, what do you have number five? Okay, so I don't know if this one is going to seem like an off-the-board pick here, but the testament of Anne Lee is who I'm going to go with number four. And I know that there are concerns because this is one that failed to find a distributor until like pretty late in the festival circuit this year.

But I think looking at kind of the momentum around search lights, other four-year consideration candidates being is this thing on, rental family, and I think they've got one more. But anyways, there's not like a ton of heat on those movies. And this is a late release. This is a December 25th release. Yeah. And the early reviews on it are really great.

I think people have been talking about this just being an Amanda Safeway vehicle. But now that more people are seeing it, they're saying it's really good. I think it will boost my points, at least in the Golden Globes, because this is going to be in that musical or comedy category. And it might be a more highbrow pick for. the musical comedy than some of the other ones. So I'm counting on it having a bit of an edge there. And I don't know, the trailers look cool.

So I think it's going to be a fun movie to have on my slate. I think it's a very interesting pick for number five because I agree that's going off the board. I was not even considering that as a possibility. It is a movie that personally I'm stoked to see. You know, Mona's Fastwold Road and directed, I believe. she's a partner and collaborator with Brady Corbett who did the brutalist. And that's another narrative that I think could help it because the brutalist, in my opinion, did not get as much love as it deserved last year at the Academy Awards.

I could see them throwing some flowers in their corner for this one. I could see it building a Mona Fastfold is the real genius behind the Fastfold Corbett collaboration. I can see that narrative cooking if it really does start to pick up some steam. I mean, early word out of festivals has been rapturous. Like, I've heard great things at a festival. So that's one of the reason why I'm personally stoked to see it.

Did not think of it as a real awards contender, though. So that's a very interesting pick. Let's see where if that pays out for you. With my number five, I'm going to take one, which I don't know how much of this is a safe pick or going out on a limb. I'm honestly not too sure about this.

I'm going to go with train dreams. Okay, chew-choo. Choo-choo, train gang. A movie that person I didn't really like, but I think has best picture nomination potential. Don't see it as a winner, but nomination potential has acting potential for Joel Edgerton's role, has definitely cinematography potential.

It's a very cinematography-heavy movie. I don't know. I've seen a lot of people talk about this in a positive way. And I could see it be one that kind of picks up a certain number of awards down the line in various ceremonies, including quite possibly the Oscars. Yeah, I think that's a good pick. That's actually one that had fallen for me. And I'm worried about the Netflix of it all. I'm worried that there might be some backlash from the voting body of that.

But then again, I did choose Frankenstein. So we'll see how that goes. All right. What did you got at six? Okay. So I am going to go for Jay Kelly as my number of six. Have you seen it? I have not. Have you? I just watched it. Like I finished watching it 15 minutes before we started recording. I just watched it tonight. Personally, loved it. I'm a huge Noah Bombback guy. I like almost everything he does. Much better than I even expected. Anyways, we're not talking necessarily about the quality of the movies, but since I literally just watched it, I just got to say. I dig it. Okay. I'm glad to hear because I also like Bombback. And I think that this definitely has some acting awards that it'll be in the conversation for.

I think never underestimate Bomback. Again, someone that I think is relatively well liked within Hollywood. So I feel like this is going to be a pretty good value pick. Yeah, I wasn't sure about that. Like Marriage Story did well at the Oscars. I think it got original script as well as Laura Dern for supporting actress. Some of those movies have been completely ignored and my hesitation on that, because I wasn't too sure if I didn't consider it contender or not.

One of my hesitation was that I feel like Netflix hasn't been pushing it. Like, has it even been in theaters? Like very few theaters, it seems to be. Like, it seems like I haven't seen it playing anywhere. It felt like it just like appeared on Netflix one day. Like I feel like Netflix hasn't been pushing it. On the other hand, again, like I said about sentimental value, it's a movie about movie making. That is a plus. And it's a movie about Hollywood and the magic of Hollywood. So,

you know, obviously that's going to score out points. But do enough people care about the movie? Is Netflix putting it in enough people's faces? I'm not sure. I think that it is made for building momentum during the award season. Like you said, it's about movie making. I think once there's conversations happening about it and it's accessible on streaming, that people are probably going to take a look at it. And, you know, the conversation that I could see building behind Adam Sandler getting an Oscar here is really exciting. So that's another reason why I want on my slate because I would be very excited about that because I think that when he's in a dramatic role, he's fantastic. So yeah, yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing this one. I haven't had a chance to yet. But I think

it'll be a fun movie to be rooting for this season. Yeah. And Sandman is great in it. And And if he does have a track to a best support actor, the fact that he didn't get on the nomination for best actor for uncut gems when a lot of people thought he was going to get it, that could be something that makes a lot of people really push for like this time. We got to get him on the nominations because we failed him last time because he is, again, a well-liked guy in Hollywood. And I think a lot of people would love to see him get a nomination. And he came very close with uncut gems. Now could be his chance. So, yeah, I think that's a good pickup. up, that could be something that we see people pushing for down the line.

All right. Where am I going to go with number six? You know what? Let's go with, it was just an accident. Let's go with that. The Palm Door winner. Again, something that would not have carried weight before, does carry weight now. Last year, we saw the Palm Door winner win Best Picture.

Anora was a Palm Door winner and an Oscar Best Picture. The second time that's happened, the first time was Parasite. the past three years in a row, the Palm Door winner was a Best Picture nominee. I think there's a lot of people who love Jeff Arpanahi, the Iranian filmmaker who's made a lot of movies that have been nominated. I think at least one or two have one best international feature. So it's definitely going to be a heavy hitter and best international feature. Can it break out in the other categories? I think it can. I think it has the buzz. I think it has, again, the big con reception. I see it as a Best Picture nominee. I think if like I said before, we've seen the last few years, there's been like maybe two international movies on average that have made it to Best Picture nominees. You've already got sentimental value. You stole that from me. Let's give it. It was just an accident the second slot.

That just makes the most sense to me. And could we see it in things like director screenplay? Probably a dark horse, but not impossible. Okay. So I've got a few here that I need. to decide between we're getting down to the last two slots uh you know what i am going to pick this is another one that is maybe off the board but i think would be fun to have the secret agent um i last year i was a big fan of i'm still here and i was really like hoping that it was going to make a

splash. So the Brazilians on Reddit have Brazilian killed me. And I'm hoping for maybe a repeat of last year's Brazilian momentum around a film. I also think that

the, you know, 1970s Brazil parallel to modern day America is going to be something that is going to appeal to the voters more than, you know, then last year.

Like, we're a year into Trump's second term now. And I just see it being, I just see this being, as you mentioned, a more political Oscar year. So I think that this one could benefit from that. Have you seen it? No, I haven't. Have you? This one I saw yesterday, and it kicks ass. Really, really fun, cool.

rich movie like it a lot. I was considering that with my last pick, actually. I was considering between the secret agent and it was just an accident. Again, on the principle that there's going to be another foreign film after sentimental value. That's got to be really present. And I thought I could see it being one of those two. It just made more sense to me for it to be the Jeff Arpani directed Palm Door winner. But the secret agent, I think Walter Murah as the lead is a best actor. a candidate for real. I think he won best actor at Khan. I think there's going to be, again,

those crazy Brazilians online are going to be pushing like hell for him, like they did for whatever her name is, I forget already. That was a million years ago. Fernando Torres. Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Brazil. I've like that for Torres last year.

If I was picking my best actor Oscar nominees right now, I would definitely have Walter Mora on the list. All right. I can see a few. few different ways to go here. There's kind of there's a there's a few I could think of that are like a good good value to get like just one or two nominations and a few but should I go for one that has a shot a real shot at best picture. So with my second to last pick I think I'll take give me begonia. I was I was not a begonia believer before we've actually talked about this off camera Craig yeah I saw a

I liked it. I think you liked it too. I don't always like Yorgos Lanthamus, but I thought that was a good movie. I thought at the time that it just like not enough people were talking about it. Its box office was not very good, that it was being kind of ignored. I think it was a Critics Choice Award nominee though. I think I saw that. Yeah. So it feels like it's maybe has more of a presence in awards chatter than I thought it did additionally. Obviously last year we saw poor things. things get a lot of love, including best actress and a number of other nominations up and down, up and down the categories. I don't think it will be as big as poor things. It wasn't as popular. It wasn't as seen by as many people. There might be a bit of fatigue in the sense that people are going to be like, are we really going to nominate Emma Stone for a Nether Lanthamist performance?

What is this? The ninth she's done in a row. So I'm not like. super confident about it, but I think that's good value for the titles that are still left. And I could see that among the Best Picture nominees potentially. Yeah, that's a good, good pick. I think that you're right. It is, it is still like in a lot of the awards conversations.

And I think that, you know, it is something that could build momentum for acting performances like Jesse Plymins. I think there's a real possibility that he's, a big contender here, so that's a good pick. Okay. Who's last to be picked? Last pick. I am trying to

decide between three films here. And none of them I am particularly excited about, but one of these films I've seen and was Luke Warman, a director that I

I like and is very versatile. My head is saying to pick it, but my heart is saying to pick is this thing on. So I am going to go with Coop, Coop Troop. He wants it so badly. I haven't seen this movie. I am not like super excited about it, but it's something that I remember there being a lot of

like real early buzz about during the festival circuit and it seems to have like cooled off a ton and a lot of that correlates with when searchlight picked up the testament of anne lee i could see it maybe building some momentum again or i could see a potential comeback for it so um yeah i'm going to go with is this thing on all right i think that's a i think that's a solid pick for number eight. I think it's hard to say. You know, that's one of those ones that's kind of like, yeah, it could be completely forgotten or could end up picking up some steam. Hmm. Now I've got, I've got a hard choice to make here. Now I'm like, do I just pick one that I think is a safe bet to get like a nomination in one category and just score a few extra points down the line? Because there are a few

there that we haven't mentioned that are like I mean at this point I'm not confident in anything being a best picture nominee but there's definitely other things out there that are going to get some nominations here and there I almost did want to go with K-pop demon hunters just because of animated plus song is like a combo where it's like okay those are two things that it could actually win um did I just talk myself into it no you know instead instead with my eight pick I'm going to go with, we're thinking this is the year of the horror apparently. I'm going to go with weapons. I'm going to go with weapons. Okay. I love that pick for you. I think it's a very strong bet that Amy Madigan as Aunt Gladys is going to be in the best supporting actress conversation.

She could be a winner possibly. Like there's going to be buzz around that. Does it have potential in other categories? Screenplay maybe. It's a very screenplay e-movie. It does have that kind of a multiple perspectives thing, which kind of screams screenplayish movie. So that could potentially be in play. Could it be a best picture nominee? It's not impossible. No,

possible dark horse. Recently sight and sound named it their favorite movie of the year. Like there are people, there are like real shooters for that movie saying it's one of the best of the year. So the fact that it has a smidgen of dark horseback's picture possibility combined with a very strong acting chance, even if it is supporting, you know, those count just as much for us, supporting counts as much as lead. Yeah, I'm confident with taking weapons with my final pick. That, I think,

is a great pick. Is there anything that wasn't picked that your surprise fell off? You know, it's, who knows, right? Like, we might all look like idiots in two months when everybody's talking about HEDA or, you know, when everybody's talking about Nuremberg or, you know, Blue Moon or, you know, there are movies, there are other dramas out there that have been generally well received in the early going or that maybe I've been out for a while and have I've been kind of collecting buzz that, you know, some studio is going to start really pushing hard down the line and then, you know, out of nowhere, that's, that's a best picture nominee that's being considered a frontrunner. That could happen. And we will, we will see. I should point

out because I haven't yet, that we have actually built in a mechanism that we can make a tiny adjustment just at two points during this season. So during the awards season, we each have the opportunity to a maximum of two times when we choose swap out one of our picks for another pick, as long as that movie, of course, has not been claimed by the other person. So we are able to claim an available movie at two different junctures by abandoning one movie from our roster. We are allowed to do that. I don't think I mentioned that. So I should, this is a good point, place to put that in there since, again, we're three months out. All right. If you're, if you're getting caught up and you're listening to this in January or February, check the

timestamp. We're not idiots because we're not talking about that movie or thinking of. Maybe we are. I mean, we are idiots for various reasons. But this is, this is December 7th. Okay. We limit it to only two changes so that we are actually kind of accountable for, for making picks early. That's part of the fun for me is that we're doing this super early. We are also allowed to do trades as much as we like, a functionality that we might revisit in future episodes. But again, to go back to the question of like, are the things I'm surprised, haven't been picked, not necessarily, though there are things like maybe F1 is going to be like a heavy hitter in technicals, which has like a very, very dark horse chance, like a black.

inky horse chance of getting a best picture nominee. I don't think that that's that unreasonable. I mean, there hasn't been a lot of talk about it, but it is the kind of blockbuster that the Academy often likes to put into the best picture lineup in order to get people excited about watching the Oscars. So I could definitely see that being in the best picture lineup. Yeah. Maybe we're sleeping on rental family. Yeah, that was one of the other ones that I was thinking about using my Oscar.

Yeah, that hasn't been that on my on my raider, but you know, again, well, I mean, Brendan Fraser already got his, but there's still like, that's still something that I could see picking up steam. Maybe I picked the wrong foreign films. Maybe no other choice. The new Chanwick Park movie gets in there. I would like to see that. I love Chandwick Park, but he has not felt Academy Love in the past, but could this be the

year that it changes. who knows. But I feel like we've covered the most likely ones. Of course I do. That's why we picked them. We'll see. Yeah, I could see there being some potential love for like House of Dynamite is one that was kind of on my radar at the end seeing like, you know, Catherine Beagle resurgence. And yeah, yeah, I could see that one building some.

momentum. So that's one that I'm going to be watching if I feel like I need to, you know, sub something in. It's interesting that delivered me from nowhere. The Bruce Springsteen biopic is, has fallen off. Like that feels dead in the water. I'm not surprised that it wasn't picked, but that was definitely like a biopic that was being talked about as definitely something that we're going to see multiple nominations for this year. Does that even come out? Yeah. it did and it did not make a splash whatsoever. Apparently because I'm I pay attention to these things and I was like

wait did that come out? Yeah I think that's there's a bit of fatigue with like musical biopics at this point I think maybe I say that now but then the Michael Jackson movie will come out and it will make like $800 million dollars

or the four Beatles movies that are coming out yeah yeah yeah but yeah that's one that if you if you were picking like in the summer. You might have been like, oh, yeah, you know, roll your eyes and be like the Bruce Springsteen biopic for sure. It's going to go up for best actor and best picture. And nope, nobody gives a shit. And that's probably nature healing, but we'll see. Black Bag is another one that I am like, it hasn't really been in the conversation, but I could see

it emerging. Just, you know, I think Soderberg's execution is flawless. There's some really great performances. It's a fun move. movie. The sick movie. I don't think anyone really cares that much, though, though, I mean, speaking of 90s indie darlings who released two movies in the same year, there was also the two, the double link later release, uh, Blue Moon and New Velvag, um, which, you know, Ethan Hawk could be a dark horse acting candidate. Um, I mean, he's going to get a nomination for sure, I, I think, but I don't know how much of a force he's going to be. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But, yeah, I would think the Linkley in our movies have a better chance in the Soderberg movies of actually getting some nominations, but I wouldn't count in it for either of their cases.

Totally. So I guess we pick actors and actresses now. Yeah. Do you get to choose first? All right. So, yeah, quick recap. We each get to pick one male actor and one female actor. Get bonus points every time they get a nomination or a win.

It doesn't matter if it's leading or supporting. So let's start with the mail and I'll take Timmy. I'll take, I'll take Timmy Chamoulet. I think that I think he's got the best, the best look. I mean, you know, he's going to be going up against Leo. There's probably, there's going to be stiff competition. But man, Timmy's just been like a staple of the Oscars for a few years now. Now, feels like his year.

Feels like his year. Too bad he won't be going against Dwayne Johnson. Oh, it's not impossible. But it seems unlikely that my vision of the Safty brothers having like dueling movies at the Oscars is not going to happen. Did we even mention the smashing machine? Has anybody mentioned the smashing machine in the past three months? That's another one that has just like completely fallen out of the conversation, I feel like. Yeah.

Yeah. So I'll take Timmy shallamee for my actor. That is the safest bet for somebody who will get nominations all year long and will, and has a very good chance of getting wins all year long and this and, and getting best actor probably. For a female actor, I didn't actually think about this too much in advance. I'm thinking of a few different options here. I'm not really sure what I just want to go with the safest one. That's the way to play this.

Yeah, it does seem like the way to play it. You know what? I put weapons on my list almost entirely because I think Amy Madigan is a very, very strong best supporting actress candidate. I think I'll take Amy Madigan for my female actress pick. I just think that there are going to be some other heavy contenders for supporting. I got to, yeah, you got to think about one battle after another too because you've got both Chase Infinity and Tiana Taylor, who could be supporting actress. they ran Ariana supporting last year, right? So they'll probably do that again.

Maybe this category is more competitive than I thought. But people love an actor that you kind of haven't heard of from a while showing up doing something really weird and crazy. Yeah. That's the kind of thing that's supporting role, that the supporting awards kind of like tend to go to. I'll go with Amy and Madigan. Let's do it. Put all my chips in on her. Yeah.

I think that that is, that's really good. That is both a fun pick and a strong pick. So I really like that pick. I am going to play it safe with both my picks. I'm going to pick Leo and Jesse Buckley. Okay. All right. Well, that is fun. I am excited about our slate here. All right. So we're not entirely done, though, are we? We have also the opportunity for five bonus points to pick one movie from the other person's picks that we think is getting shut out of the Oscars, no nominations. Right. It doesn't really matter who goes first. Why don't you go first, Kurt?

So I think of your picks the most likely to get shut out of the Oscars is, is weapons. So, um, I mean, yeah, I think that that is your least safe pick. Yeah. I mean, agree. That's why I have it. I just ask my eight pick. Um, your eight pick is weak to as an eight pick should be. Um, but I think I got a, I think your vulnerability here is the testament of Ann Lee. Yeah. I think that's a weak spot. So that's what I'm going to pick. Okay. I think you definitely could be right, but I see this one. I see it being a monster. All right.

Let's see how this ages as we move forward. And we will be back with an update at some point. As things start getting heated up, maybe in advance of the Golden Globes. We'll see. a distinct time frame yet, but we're definitely going to do a number of these episodes leading up to the Oscars. Each episode, we will give you updates on the latest gossip, the latest results, if there was an awards show recently, the latest buzz, what people are talking about. We will also be using this opportunity to talk a little bit about Oscar history because we love that stuff,

just kind of the culture around it, the important developments, what it means, all that fun nonsense about it. Once in a while, we might bring on a special guest or two to talk about certain topics related to the Oscars. And we will be talking about the movies that are front runners or Best Picture nominees one at a time as we go through these episodes. So you will be hearing our thoughts about what we actually think about these films as films too. So we'll touch on all of those things in each of these episodes once they start going. Golden Globe nominations should be out by the time this this drops and things will be starting to get real yeah let us know how stupid we are in the comment section on this yeah for sure let us know where you agree with us if you feel like being kind

or uh or just like yeah or if you're just Brazilian yeah keep an eye out for future episodes of oscar outsider we'll probably be siling them off into a separate channel so if you follow bravo outsider you know make sure you're getting notifications to bravo outsider make sure you're subscribed that you're checking in because we will point you in the right direction once we have our separate feed for Oscar Outsider episodes up when things start to really get rolling here in award season. I'm pretty stoked about this. Yeah, let's go. We'll see you at the movies. Until next time, keep on Oscar.