Breaking News from Pod Save America - BREAKING: Trump's New Ukraine Peace Plan is a DISASTER

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

Ben and Tommy discuss the leaked Ukraine “peace deal” that the Trump administration negotiated with Russia and is now pressuring Ukraine to accept by Thanksgiving. They explain why reports claiming the plan includes a NATO-style security guarantee are false, and break down how the 28-point plan demands major concessions from Ukraine while overwhelmingly benefiting Russia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Let me tell you the secret of how to look like you know what you're doing. Use mushrooms. Tossamine eggs, noodles, boom, it's delicious. It's not magic. It's mushrooms. Hit up mushroomcouncil.com and get cooking. Welcome back to positive world. I'm Tommy Vitor.

I'm Ben Rudes. All right, Ben, we've got some big breaking news. On Friday, Axios reported that President Trump's 28-point peace plan for Ukraine includes a NATO-style security guarantee. That would be a very big deal, big if true, as they say. But Ben, the more we learned about Trump's plan, the more it seems like Axios got spun here and that this deal is basically just the same demand for Ukraine to surrender that we've seen before. But let's dig into the details. So we know some details of the plan, thanks to great reporting by Alex Ward, Laura Seleagman, and Lawrence Norman at the Wall Street Journal.

And then the Axios report from Barack Ravid that I mentioned earlier. So under the terms of the deal, Ukraine's military would be capped at 600,000 personnel. I saw, I think it was like a CSIS report or a CFR report that said they're currently at nearly 900,000 active duty troops. So that's a big cut for the Ukrainian force. There's also they won't be allowed to use someone to convince weapons. Ukraine would agree to never join NATO, but I think retains the right to join the EU. Ukraine would have to see control the entire Dombas region, including the parts that are not currently under Russian control. I think that's given up about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

And Ukraine would basically have to accept the current battle lines elsewhere. Russia, on the other hand, gets to rejoin the G8. They get phase sanctions relief and they get some sort of enhanced economic cooperation deal with the U.S. to work on AI, energy, and rare earth mining in the Arctic. What a wish list. So back to that, like Axios headline that the U.S. had offered Ukraine a NATO-like security guarantee. Here's what the text of the deal or the proposal says per Barack reveted Axios. The framework claims to include, quote, security assurance. modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

So that's where they got the NATO part. And then this is verbatim then. The United States affirms that a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed armistice's line into Ukrainian territory shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community. And then it says if such an attack occurs, the President of the United States consult with like the Ukrainians, NATO, the Europeans, et cetera. And then they decide how to respond.

And that quote, these measures. may include armed force, intelligence, logistical assistance, economic, and diplomatic actions. So, Ben, I'll just pause there. I mean, it doesn't really sound like a guarantee at all to me. It sounds like the president gets to decide if and when attack is a big enough deal to warrant some sort of response. And then we can respond with as little as logistical assistance. But what did you make of this? This is a most astonishingly good terms for Vladimir Putin.

He gets literally every single thing he wants. He gets more territory than they currently control. He gets to be brought in completely from the cold, and we can talk about that. And the one thing that Ukraine desperately wanted as part of any agreement, right, is a credible security guarantee so that Russia doesn't threaten them or invade them again. This matters. People should know because Ukraine got a kind of soft security guarantee in the 90s when they agreed to give up their nuclear weapons from Russia, the United States, in the United Kingdom,

That turned out to be worth precisely nothing when Russia did invade Ukraine first in 2014 and then the full-scale invasion a couple of years ago. And so what they wanted was something like, you know, they wanted to be a NATO and get an Article 5 commitment, which says an attack on Ukraine would basically be an attack on the entire NATO alliance and we're obligated to respond. They're trying to spin this. But if you look at the language of that agreement, and, you know, we've looked at a lot of diplomatic agreements in our time, Tommy. they say it's like Article 5, okay, well, what does it mean in practice? Then it says, well, if Russia invades Ukraine, it would be a threat to, you know, the transatlantic community. Well, yeah, that's just a fact. It would be. But then they basically lay out this menu of options that a U.S. president would have to respond.

And they literally specify all these non-military things like diplomatic measures and logistical assistance, you know. What was that even mean? We're going to start shipping, I don't know, whatever to the Ukrainians, it's not weapons. I mean, there is no reason that for anyone to believe that that is some kind of credible security guarantee. They can spin it any way they want to Axios, but anybody looking at this fine print can see what it is. Zelensky looks like a man who literally just got, you know, a terminal diagnosis as he's talking about this thing, because he knows what it is. He's literally said, and, you know, our dignity, we have to choose between our dignity and losing the support of the United States. But, like, let's just be very clear.

No security guarantee, no NATO, lose more territory than they currently have already lost. They have a cap on their military, so they can't even prepare to defend themselves without us, right? Because the 600,000 person military without certain advanced weapons is not going to be able to offend off a Russian invasion. This is literally Vladimir Putin being gifted the terms of, that he would want to end this war. Yeah, no doubt. And President Zelensky is, he seems apoplectic about this proposal.

So on Friday, he did a 10-minute televised address to the Ukrainian people, which unfortunately for us was not in English, so we can't play it for you directly. But friend of the pod, Christopher Miller, translated it. I pulled some of the following. So as you mentioned, Zelensky says Ukraine is facing, quote, one of the most difficult moments in our history

as their largest ally presses them into a deal with Russia. And then here's another quote, Now Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice. Either the loss of dignity or the risk of losing a key partner. Either the Trump administration's 28 points or an extremely difficult winter, the most difficult and further risks. Life without freedom, life without dignity, without justice and for us to believe the one who has attacked twice already, they will expect an answer for us.

So the Financial Times has been where Christopher Miller writes now, says Zelensky spoke on the phone with J.D. Vance for about an hour today. and that the U.S. expects the Ukrainians to sign this deal before Thanksgiving. So next Thursday, and that the U.S. is signaled that they could cut off weapon shipment and intelligence sharing if Zelensky doesn't sign. So, like, this is negotiation at gunpoint, but the gun is being held by the United States in this case. Yeah, there's so much that's wrong about this. I mean, first of all, it's a small detail, but, like, what's with the Thanksgiving deadline?

the Ukrainians don't celebrate that. Nobody celebrates Thanksgiving except for us. It's like, you know, so Trump and J.D. Vans can take a peace victory lap and, like, enjoy their Thanksgiving dinners. And then meanwhile, you're just completely, you know, gut punching the Ukrainians. Then, I mean, also, like, J.D. Vance, the guy that, like, lectured to Zelensky in the Oval Office as the interlocutor, there's something kind of demeaning about that, too. Like, Trump can't even get on the phone with Zelensky himself to do this. They're too busy, like, reviewing architectural plans for the office. the East Wing or something to call Volensky and tell him he's going to fuck him. Yeah. Yeah.

You know, and then the threat that we've brought to bear on them, right, already we're not providing the same amount of weapons we used to, but to say that we're going to cut them off completely from weapons and from like intelligence sharing, I'm sure, like you and I are not inside these rooms, but I'm quite sure that the capacity of the Ukrainians to know about certain Russian attacks, so some of this is just defensive, or the capacity of the Ukrainians to target Russians, we're literally threatening to rug pull them. We're literally saying to them, we're not just cutting off weapons. We're going to like debilitate your capacity to defend yourselves and your territory against the Russians if you don't accept this deal, which we will

then, of course, add to the Potemkin list of wars that Trump claims to have ended. I think it's so important for people to understand this and we'll get to the Russia piece, but like I want peace. Like we want this war to end. I accept that Ukraine is not going to reclaim all its territory. It's not going to get Crimea back. It may lose parts of eastern Ukraine. But this does not need to be happening. This does not need to be the way this goes, right?

Like there is leverage that the United States has. There's leverage that the Europeans have. There's credible security guarantees that we could have. There's the potential for a peacekeeping force that could go to Ukraine. Europeans have said that they would contribute to that. There's no need for them to cede territory that they haven't even already lost to the Russians. And so to be doing this, to just be squeezing this guy. I mean, we all talked about the Alaska summit, and there it was clear that Putin basically brought this precise plan.

This is the plan that Putin brought to the Alaska summit. And everybody at that time was like, oh, my God, thank God, Trump didn't agree to that thing. And then the Europeans had to come and be like, here's all the reasons why you can't agree to that. That's like a death sentence for the Ukrainians. It leaves them permanently vulnerable to the Russians. In addition to giving Putin all these things that he frankly just doesn't deserve and hasn't even won on the battlefield. And we're just doing this so that Trump can claim a win, you know. And it's it's really world historically dangerous stuff just to suit the ego of Trump to claim that he had another Jared Whitkoff negotiated peace deal.

Yeah. And look, the Europeans are shocked by this, if you, according to a bunch of reports. They're also just shocked by the speed with which the United States is trying to force Ukraine to capitulate and basically surrender to the Russians. And just also, it's worth thinking about the broader context. Like in the last month or two, we've been talking about Russia firing drones into the airspace of all of these European countries, right? Like Poland was first, but it's spread all over the place. And the Polish government is currently accusing the Russians of blowing up a railway inside a Polish territory and basically an act of terrorism that was designed to cut off a really critical resupply route from Poland to the Ukrainians.

So, like, this is happening as the Russians are getting more aggressive and lashing out. and others in NATO. And so as part of this deal, I mean, Moscow would have to promise not to reinvade Ukraine and they would have to forge a non-aggression pact with Kiev and Europe. But like, who buys that? You know what I mean? Nobody buys. Yeah.

Do you really trust, like, the Vladimir Putin signs some like non-aggression pact? Look. No. First on the Europeans then the Russians. The Europeans have taken this like U.S. law firm approach to Trump, where they kiss his ass, they charm him. You know, the Secretary General of NATO is literally calling him daddy. And the idea was that this was the smart strategy to keep him on side in Ukraine.

It failed. Like, it would have been better to show this guy some backbone and to have, like, your own independent view of how this war ends, instead of just letting it get to this point. And I think the Europeans need to do some soul searching about how they've handled this whole situation. The Russian piece is so important here, right? Because if you look at what the Ukrainians wanted, they would want their territory back. They're not getting that.

they're losing more territory. They wanted NATO. They're not getting that. They're not even getting a credible security guarantee. But importantly, and this is getting lost in the whole thing, Vladimir Putin broke the most fundamental international rule, which is that you don't invade another country and violated sovereignty. He's not only getting rewarded with that territory. He's getting sanctions relief. He's getting deals on AI. He's currently got a broken military economy. And the problem he has is if the war ends, his economy's fucked because the whole Russian economy exists now to perpetuate this war. So therefore, he needs these deals. He needs sanctions relief. He needs, like, partnership to get critical minerals. He needs AI. They

don't have the kind of advanced AI we have. So we're going to give him, not just economic relief. We're going to give him economic opportunities, like deals that Trump and like some goons and oligarchs in this country can make with some Russian goons and oligarchs. Then he gets brought, what the Ukrainians would want is for Vladimir Putin to face justice at the international criminal court, which has a worn out for his arrest for war crimes. And not only that, he's going to be welcomed into the G8? It's crazy. So he's literally going to be like coming to countries that are in the G8 that are part of the

ICC that are supposed to be arresting him. And instead he's suddenly back in this club of what used to be the world's democracies? It's his fucking bonkers. And then, I mean, there's like a whole piece that's like a whole piece that's like, American war profiteering, according to some of these reports. I mean, the U.S. would be tasked with rebuilding Ukraine's gas pipelines and then create some sort of fund for artificial intelligence projects and data centers in Ukraine. And then there's another peace council like in Gaza that guess who's chairing it? Donald Trump, what a surprise. And then the proposal also says they would

deploy $100 billion of frozen Russian sovereign assets in reconstruction projects that the U.S. can profit off of. So Donald Trump is trying to make money off of ending this war. I understand the like kind of America first political incentives of saying we shouldn't be sending money over to Ukraine for bombs. We should be reinvesting here at home. That's fine. I get that. But like making money, like profiteering off this carnage is like it's disgusting. And also there's just so many issues that are not resolved.

Right. Ben, so a big one that we've talked about on the show is the Russians have kidnapped thousands if not tens of thousands of Ukrainian children. and they are currently in parts of Russia, either in orphanages or with family, it's just being indoctrinated. This says this deal would set up some sort of family rehabilitation program to try to start a process to begin with that issue. But like, how can Zelensky sell this to his people if he can't even get the kids back? Of all the things, you should just be like, return them all tomorrow.

Like, this should be a no-brainer. Like, this is just clearly a poison pill for Zelensky. Maybe the Russians leaked it. I mean, and that's how it came out. I mean, Michael Weiss, who's a, you know, funny analyst, refers to Steve Whitkoff, Trump's golf buddy turned sort of diplomat for everything as Dim Filby. If you know who Kim Filby is, he was a famous British MI6 officer who ended up turning and spying for the Russians.

It seemed like Whitkoff saw this story post on Twitter and then tried to DM someone about it and then suggested that the Russians had leaked it, that his counterpart negotiated the deal had put it out. But I don't know, man. Like a month ago, we were talking about the U.S. potentially giving the Ukrainians tomahawk missiles. Like, I guess that was all just sort of like bullshit of the moment. But this is just, you know, full capitulation, Alaska style.

Well, the point about the kids is both the wrench and humanitarian issue, that tens of thousands of kids have been separated from their families and those families aren't going to get them back. But it also highlights another point, which is if you look at this entire deal, there is not a single concession that Russia is making. Not one. Not one. Not even like giving back the kids, right, a concession that isn't not concession. It's just like morally the right thing to do.

So essentially all of the concessions are on the Ukrainian side. All of them, 100 percent, zero percent are on the aggressor side. But I think – and if you look at this board, right, Trump structures it where it's – It's like the U.S. and Trump kind of negotiating between NATO and Russia, as if we're not a member of NATO either. It's like, you know, where it's like some separate party. And I think part of it, if you think about, you know, what changed from when we were going to give them Tomok missiles to now, nothing changed in the Russian plan. They've continued to attack Ukraine.

They've continued to bombard Ukraine. They've continued to try to take out its energy infrastructure so that the winter is colder and more miserable for Ukrainians. I think the only thing that's changed is the massive adulation that Trump got for that Gaza ceasefire. I mean, this is what's fucking wrong with the way in which the American media and all these other world leaders kissed his ass when that happened because it got him horny for another one of those things. I'll set up another board of peace and we'll have another like pretty like tenuous ceasefire that doesn't solve the underlying problem. And I get to declare a big win and be celebrated by my media and everybody kisses my ass. And this is why you don't do that. This is why you don't – you know, it's like giving a child who's behaving poorly, like incentives to keep doing it.

And so the last thing I want to say about this is this is not going to end in even three years. What is partly so dangerous about this is everybody's like doing this short-term thing with Trump, where you should get through the next meeting or get through the next season. and Ukraine has to live next to Russia for the rest of time. In three years, Donald Trump will be gone, and Ukraine will have a capped military, no security guarantees, and a big and economically recovering Russia on its border, right? That is a problem for Ukraine forever, like long after Donald Trump.

That is a problem for Europe and NATO, long after Donald Trump. We have to stop just thinking about these things in the kind of broken short-term brain that Donald Trump has us thinking about things. These are like long timelines. already been 10 years since Russia annexed illegally Crimea, right? And that's kind of the sense of foreboding I get. Sure, people might feel relief that the war is quote unquote over at the front line, but what kind of future are we buying with this deal if it goes through? Yeah, and also think the press has got to stop calling these peace deals. You know, this was not a deal negotiated with both sides.

There's some sort of like painstaking process where they, you know, crossed every tea and dotted every die and got to consensus on tough things. This is a deal that Steve Wickoff, who has no idea what he's doing, negotiated directly with the Russians, and then they presented it to the Ukrainian side. It is not hard to come up with a plan that codifies the Russian wish list and then force the weaker partner to accept it because they're reliant on our intelligence and our arms. But that's exactly what happened here. And God, I mean, like, I guess we'll see if this Thanksgiving deadline is real. But what an unbelievably cruel thing to just foist Zelenzky and the Ukrainians in this moment as they're just getting pounded with

airstrikes every single day? We'll see what happens because like how do the Ukrainian people respond to this? Can Zelensky kind of get this through there? How do the Europeans respond to this? Do they try to kind of push for better terms? We'll know by the time we record on Tuesday. I think the other thing I'd say about your point about peace deals is all of these deals have one thing in common. None of them solve the underlying issue, whether it's a border issue or or whatever the thing is. But generally what it is, to your point, is Trump just embracing the maximalist terms of the stronger party and ramming it down the throat of the weaker party as terms

of surrender. So in this case, it's just like it's not a peace deal. It's a Russian victory being forced it upon the Ukrainians. In Gaza, it wasn't a peace deal. It didn't resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It just basically said to the Palestinians, like, you're cut out of this saying, we're going of a board of peace with Tony Blair. No self-determination whatsoever. And then meanwhile, Israel can keep bombing you and keep annexing pieces of the West Bank. Even in some of these small things, we don't have to go into too much, but like, Azerbaijan Armenia was like Azerbaijan was an aggressor ethnically cleansed a part of Armenia, and that's

the deal. That's the quote-unquote piece. Rwanda. Like Rwanda invaded the Democratic Republic of Congo with a proxy militia. That militia didn't have to leave, and they're still there, exploding natural resources. So this is not rocket science. None of this is negotiated. Steve Wyckoff is not negotiating things between different parties or Jared Kushner.

They're just taking the side of the stronger party and ramming it down the throat of the weaker party and then saying Trump should get a noble peace prize. It is literally through the looking glass. Then leaking to Axios that it's a peace plan and there's a NATO like security guarantee. If you just one scratch one little bit deeper on that, you know that is absolutely not sure. And also the sourcing was pretty obvious in the Axiost story. It was like a US, like it was like a, It was an administration official or a White House official and then like someone else familiar with the plan.

So it's like, ah, okay, so it's Jared Kushner and like Caroline Levitt or, you know, whoever. I mean, look, not to be, you know, but Barack Reveed, you know, is a good guy that we worked with back when we're in the White House. But, you know, he covers the Middle East Bee, not Ukraine. He wrote a giant love letter to Jared Kushner, a book about the Abraham Accords. Not, you know, it's pretty obvious what's happening. It's like, let's go to someone who will like credulously report a NATO, like Article 5, Derrington. and hope that shapes the Washington media coverage. But, like, people are going to read the fine print, you know.

Zelenskyy certainly is. Yeah, yeah, yeah. His reaction probably tells you everything you need to know. And we should just say there are Ukrainians that have had to flee the country. They're Ukrainians who have lost loved ones. The Ukrainians who've been at the front line for two or three years. These are millions and millions of human beings that are now getting the rug pulled out from them by the United States, and that sucks.

Yep, it's just terrible. All right, well, look, we're going to cover. this again next week. We'll cover it Tuesday for Wednesday's show. Thank you for watching this Pod Save the World YouTube exclusive. Please subscribe to Pod Save the World here on YouTube because we are covering lots of big breaking news events like this one. We had a great episode yesterday about this traitor, a former U.S. spy turned double agent who showed up in the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. That's worth your time. We've got a lot of other great stuff. So please subscribe to Pod Save the World on YouTube. It is free. Tell your friends and we'll talk to you next week.