Breaking News from Pod Save America - Democrats Just Won a HUGE Advantage Over Trump and Republicans

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

Texas Democrats score a big night as James Talarico defeats Jasmine Crockett in a key primary, forcing Republicans into a costly runoff. Jon Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer break down why the result could spell trouble for Trump and Republicans. CHECK OUT OUR SPONSOR: ZIP RECRUITER - http://ziprecruiter.com/CROOKED Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, I'm here with John Fabro because last night was election night in America. We had elections in Texas, North Carolina, Arkansas. We are going to focus on Texas because there were two huge Senate primaries that will come to potentially decide the Senate. On the Democratic side, James Tala Rico defeated Jasmine Crockett by about seven points with 95 percent of the vote in. Let's look at a clip from Tala Rico's victory speech. And then John, I want to talk to you about the race. Let's roll the clip. This is a people-powered movement to take on the support.

broken, corrupt political system. This is truly a campaign of, by, and for the people. We are not, we are not just trying to win an election. We are trying to fundamentally change our politics. And it's working. The number of young people who showed up to vote in this election is unprecedented. The number of Texans who have never been. never voted before but showed up in this election is unprecedented. The number of independents and Republicans who voted in this Democratic primary is unprecedented. This is proof that there is something happening in Texas. All right, John, what do you make of his big win?

I think one of the biggest cliches in politics right now is that Democrats want someone who fights because voters like strength and I think that cliche suffers from a failure to define what fight means in the context of politics. Fighting can mean rhetorically kicking the shit out of Donald Trump and Republicans in a way that gets you attention and satisfies and sometimes thrills partisan Democrats like us who are always going to vote Democrat.

Fighting can also mean kicking the shit. shit out of rich and powerful interests that are running the country and that are screwing people over so that you are fighting them and fighting on behalf of people who feel what they are not being heard like they've been screwed over by their government like they can't trust their government. And I think those two things are different. And I think, you know, I don't want to oversimplify it, but Jasmine Crockett's campaign was very much the first kind of fighting. It was mostly about how she takes on Donald Trump.

it's mostly about how she's tough and the Republicans don't like her. And so she's going to, you know, she's going to kick the shit out of Trump and all that. And I think the risk of that kind of campaign is it also makes it about you and you beating Republicans and you beating Donald Trump. And what voters actually care about is what's going on in their lives and who's going to fight for them. And I think that what Tala Rico did was when we heard that a little bit in that, in that victim. victory speech is he talked about not just winning an election, but changing politics and upending the system. And it's still pretty, I mean, he talked a lot in his campaign about, like, even though he's very religious, he talked about like Jesus going into the temple and flipping over tables.

And like, he talks about like fighting rich and powerful interests, you know. And so I think that helped him. But I think, I just think that the view that we just have to say bad things about Donald Trump and Republicans, and like, the more you do that and the tougher it is, the stronger you are and the better off you are, I just don't think it's borne out by actual elections. Yeah, it's, this one's a really hard one to analyze. Because there are two dimensions of an analysis of election. There's who voted, like in what percentages, like what parts of the country, what parts of the state, and then there is why they voted.

And we don't have a good answer why people voted because there are no exit polls. For even as imperfect as they are, they can tell you some basic things. I think a lot of the way this race was framed, originally was framed as liberal versus moderate. And then that was a very imperfect thing because actually it's kind of the same positions. And maybe technically on this few issues, Tayloriko's actually slightly to the left of Crockett, mainly because he's a state rep. She's a congressman, like interest would give money to her. We don't, like, that's all sort of a theoretical conversation.

But essentially the same, right? This is not a Bernie candidate versus a. new Democrat or anything like that. It's too kind of like down the line on policy ition Democrats. And then so that didn't really work, even though it's pretty clear that Tala Rico is attitudinally more moderate, like he talks about reaching out the voter, the Republicans and Crockett is just known for taking on Trump. And then the other question is this is the election between a fighter and the more electable candidate. And that, I think that also fails here because we just don't know, like we don't have an,

Exhibable question says, is electability your number one issue? And then you would see other people who prize electability, do they overwhelmingly pick one can or the other? We don't have that data. And I was really struck listening to Sarah Longwell's Focus Group podcast episode this past week, which you talked to Democrats about this race. And everyone cared about electability. They just had different definitions of it. And Tala Rico supporters looked at Tala RICO and said he can reach out to Republicans. He can, you know, he talks about his religion. He's someone who could persuade my. Maga Curious Uncle. And so he's the more elected one. And then you talk to Krockets supporters. And they weren't saying like, man, I just want someone who's going to take on Trump. They were saying, I think she's more electable because she's tough. She can take, she's not afraid. She can generate attention. She can fire people up. And like that was their difference for electability. So we don't really know that. Like what you can take, like what I look at this race, late Talarico won is pretty clear. He did very well with Latino voters. Like we don't have exit polls, but you can look at how he overwhelmingly won in the.

Latino heavy counties along the Rio Grande Valley, and then how he did in the Latino heavy precincts in major cities in major cities like Fort Worth, Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston. Like that's the path. Yeah. Yeah, like he blew out the cities. Yeah. Um, which is other than Dallas, other than Dallas, which is her home base. Um, but yeah, no, I think it is hard to get into the demographics and what different people want. He also like, one, like a lot of the, you could tell that some, a lot of the younger voters. And again, you don't have exit poll data, but like in just counties where they're generally younger counties.

Yeah, he was, he was doing well there as well. And he blew out Travis County, which is where Austin is. It's his home base. Yes, right. But also a lot of college students. Well, the other thing from that Longwell focus group and also from all the polls, from all the reporting on the ground is this was an extremely contentious race on the and most Texans who went to go vote in this primary really liked both candidates.

And that is a lesson not for all of us. We can go, everyone can keep fighting online. There's plenty more primaries that'll have you fight online even harder maybe. But it is a good lesson for the candidates and the campaigns to fucking shut that off. And like the fights that are going on online, like, Tala Rico largely, do not pay attention to those, and the Crockett campaign very much did. I don't even think the Crockett campaign paying attention to them really mattered, but like, you know, Jasmine Crockett talking about Liz Smith towards the end of the race. I don't think that, I don't think

most Texans knew about that, first of all, and if they did, they'd be like, huh? And at the very least, you can say, it is like, it is taking you off the message that you need if you want to win a race. Pod Save America Breaking News is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. What's the latest trend in hiring, it's skill-based hiring, which emphasizes capabilities over education and direct experience. According to experts, this leads to faster hiring and better job performance. If you're an employer who's adopted skills-based hiring, the best way to ensure that your applicants have the right skills is with ZipRecruiter. ZipRecruiter recommends smart screening questions to help you hone in on that perfect match for

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Meet your match on ZipRecruiter. All right. Now let's go to the Republican side where the Republicans, the Republican primary between John Cornyn, Ken Paxson, and Wesley Hunt was the most expensive Senate primary in history and one of the nastiest. And because no candidate got to 50 percent, guess what? It's not over yet. They have another two and a half months worth of campaigning. Amazing. And to give you a sense of what Texans are in for, I want to show you this ad that the Cornyn folks ran right before the primary. It's voting time. So let's cut through the bullshit. Crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his wife. She's divorcing him on biblical grounds. So now Paxton's

wrecking another home, sleeping around. with a married mother of seven. And remember this, Crooked Ken has increased his net worth by as much as 7,000 percent since taking office. And his actions in office, even more troubling. Paxton gave millions of Texas tax dollars to left-wing organizations, including the Montrose Center that hosts drag queen shows and performs gender affirming services to kids as young as seven. Now think of the Paxton dirty deeds we don't know about. Yet, the wife, cheater and fraud. or the Texas workhorse. Senator John Cornyn is endorsed by the Border Patrol, and he voted with President Trump 99% of the time.

Cornyn got the money to finish the damn law. Texans know what to do. I'm John Corning, and I approve this message. Join my team and give today. In a result that surprised a lot of people, Cornyn actually did better than Ken Paxson, and people assume Kempakson would get more votes. Cornyn did better.

By like a percentage point, maybe? Wesley Hunt was very far in a distance. third, he's now out of it, so it'll be Cornyn and Paxton to the end. What do you make of this race, and does it give you concern that Cornyn, who is perceived to be, perceived by most to be, the more electable of the two did better than people expected? Yeah, I don't know because I don't know where that Wesley Hunt vote goes, though I assume it's probably better news for Paxton because, like, I think if you decided not to vote for Cornyn and he's the known, the very, I mean, Ken Paxton's a known quantity as well, but it feels like if you voted for Wesley Hunt,

it was because it was an anti-Coron vote. I think that that, like, that is good. I get why in a Republican primary you talk about him cheating on his wife. I would just say that the president that they all worship is a divorce many times, cheated many times, philanderer, sexual. Yeah, convicted of, yeah, convicted of crime. for paying a porn star hush money so like I think that only goes so far I you know but it's so people talk about Ken Paxton now and they're like oh he has a lot of baggage he had a lot of problems in

Texas like they're going to be 12 weeks now for John Corny to actually lay out what actually like you had to I had to look back and figure out like what what did Ken Paxson can't actually do like the broad good no he he's stole from he he is as corrupt as they come he stole from the Texas taxpayers. He brought, like the impeachment charges were bribery, abuse of public trust, misuse of official powers, obstruction of justice, violating whistleblower law, making false statements, conspiracy. And, you know, he got impeached, didn't get convicted because of Republicans and then

went all MAGA. But like, I think that Korn has quite a bit of material to work with. And so does the Republican Party. Now, the question is, can Ken Paxson be like, this is. the rhino establishment trying to stop like donald trump's favorite maga warrior in texas um and i don't know i don't know how much purchase that carries in a republican primary in texas what do you think so the it's going to be different because this was a high turnout primary um one of the you know is like turnout usually follows money most expensive ever um so high turnout you would

imagine that Paxton would do better in a lower turnout runoff because that would get you more hardcore conservative voters. And Paxton, and Cornyn is the quote unquote rhino in the street, which is unbelievable because he does, as this ad suggested, voted for voted with Trump, 99% of the time. And his main promise he's an establishment Republican. Also, I would note, like the ad is not good. I'm not sure how effective it is. I wanted to play because I think it shows what the nastiness of the race is. And there's now another two and a half months for that, which is good news for Democrats. I'm going to read you a quote. today from a Republican operative about the race of some political playbook.

It needs to get over quick. Otherwise, this is a fucking nightmare. It is already a nightmare. You've got the MAGA coalition just tearing at the seams. Anything in a game of subtraction right now is fucking disastrous. And so this is, like, the Republicans are very worried about this. Now, the big question overhanging this is, what is Trump going to do? And he is, you're going to, he's going to be under tremendous pressure from John Thune,

the NRC, the senators to endorse Cornyn. Now, they've been pressure him to do this for a very long time. He has resisted doing it. Ken Paxton is MAGA through and through. He really is almost, he's kind of ahead of Trump on a lot of these issues, MAGA issues. He's very good at kind of sussing out a cultural wedge issue and then like leveraging the power of the government to do it, whether it's on abortion, on harassing trans people, just across the board, like, voter fraud, all these things. He really focuses on it. So he has a loyal base.

And so Trump's going to be torn between doing what people say will make the Republicans more likely to win or do the thing that would upset the MAGA base. And he's been sort of paralyzed by that decision. But I also think that like the fact that the MAGA base is currently tearing itself apart and upset with Trump over Iran. Epstein, like name the issue. It, you know, it speaks to Trump maybe think. thinking, okay, I need to throw them a bone. So looking at this now, looking at what happened, the Democratic side, Republican side, how do you feel about Democrats prospect in Texas in the general election, whether it's

Cornyn, Paxton, or other one? I feel that the prospects are as good as they have been since 2018 when Beto came within two and a half points of Ted Cruz. and because I think it is look I think that number one reason that Beto came so close was just the electorate that year, the blue wave. Democrats winning the House by the House vote by what, eight points. Was that what it was? So if you get that kind of environment and you have a really good candidate in James Telerico, which so far he's been an excellent candidate, we'll see how he does in a general. and you have a really damaged bad Republican candidate,

potentially in Ken Paxton, worse than Ted Cruz, then you have a real shot. And I think if Tala Rico can, and again, this is how Beto came close, he really racked up margins in the cities that neither Biden nor Kamala nor any other statewide Democrat in Texas did since 2018, and then did okay. in the Rio Grande Valley where a lot of those heavily Latino counties are, Beto's from El Paso, so he could sort of held down the margins there.

And if Tala Rico can do that, then he has a good chance. Yeah, I think you look at this. You can't, everything that happened here suggests that Democrats have a real shot to do it. It's an uphill climb. There's no question about it. I think it's probably easier to beat Paxton than Cornyn, but I think both can be beaten depending on how this Republican primary plays out. Because there really is a double-edged sword,

which is if Trump comes in puts his thumb on the scale, and endorses Cornyn, that's actually probably a net negative even in Texas, given this political environment, to sort of be seen as like Trump's lackey, because that's what it'll look like, right? It'll hand it in the race. Trump is underwater in Texas right now, and one of the last polls that came out for election, Trump's at 45 in Texas. That's good. I think there is something, it is a Democratic primary, so we should be cautious about it.

But there are a couple things to take away. One, when all the votes are counted, Democrats are going to outvote Republicans. more Democrats voted the Democratic primary Republicans voted in the Republican primary. That's notable in a state that Trump won by 14 points. It has more Republicans. Second, the margin, not just the margins that Tala Rico racked up against Crockett in Latino precincts and in particularly the Latino counties in the River Grand Valley was the overall vote total.

Like you had like numbers of Democrats voting early in primary elections in places like Star and Bexar County like you've never seen before, and that speaks to enthusiasm, not just for Democrats, but also anger at Republicans. And the formula for a Democrat to win Texas is to, like, blow it out with black voters. And this is where working with Jasmine Crocker is going to be absolutely critical. And she did say she was going to endorse, she endorsed him, is going to fight for him and try to help him win. That's really important. Doing incredibly well with Latinos. And then holding on, holding your margins with white voters. Tala Rico, on paper, has the possibility to do that.

I think the political environment in Texas is actually better for Tala Rico as we sit here today than it was for Beto in 2018. Just because of Trump's in his second term. He's more of a lame duck. It's more likely the Republican base is going to be disenthused or unenthused because they're pretty fired up in 2018. Like, that's how Cruz ended up winning that race. And I think Cruz is a candidate, as odious as he is to us. but he can fire up Republicans in Texas. And so we have a real shot here.

And I think that is all you can ask for sitting here on March 4th of an election here. So I have a shot to win Texas. One other thing that I think Tala Rico and the Democrats have going for us here is in 2018, you did not have a huge majority of the country upset over high prices, the economy. And Tala RICO has that. and Taylor Rico's message is like laser focused on that. And so he really speaks to the two problems people have right now in the country, which is this larger like politics is fucking useless to me because it's warfare and everyone's just yelling at each other and nothing's happening and everything's horrible and it's all chaotic.

So he can speak to that and speak to the fact that like these people have been in power for how long and they have done absolutely nothing to improve your life. And he has seen it in from his perspective in the state of Texas and the Texas legislature. which it's the same story. So I think you can really just run as we're going to make your life better and these people are not. All right. We can talk about this all day. We could.

We probably will again on our pod tomorrow. Well, we will, but there are also a few other things here, which is I'm going to talk about it later today on Polarcoaster, my subscriber only podcast. If you want to listen to that, because I'm going to do a much deeper dive there, you can go to cricket.com slash friends to subscribe and get all of our great content, including ad-free episodes of Potset, America, and your other favorite podcasts. I also wrote a deeper dive on my newsletter message box. If you want to subscribe to that, go to kirkin.com slash yes we dand and get 20% off for an entire year because at message box we make things cheaper when Trump makes them more expensive.

And while you're here, smash a subscribe button so you can support independent media and ensure that more people who go on YouTube get actual good, progressive, thoughtful analysis and not just right wing slop. John, I just want to say one more thing. If you're not a subscriber to message box by now, what the fuck are you doing? It is... I ask people that every day. It's like the first thing I read every morning, including this morning.

Dan has a great one on the race. It is like just essential if you care about politics and you want everything. So cricket.com slash yes we, Dan, go subscribe. That's a great way to end this. Thanks, John. Bye, Dan.

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