Breaking News from Pod Save America - Republicans Turn On Trump In Brutal New Midterm Ads

Episode Date: September 21, 2026

Dan Pfeiffer is joined by Democratic political strategist Addisu Demissie to break down the latest midterm ads, including Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar breaking with Trump on immigration, an attack ad targeting Mike Rogers, and James Talarico’s latest ad against Ken Paxton. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I really like it when a nice guy candidate shows a willingness to punch the opponent in the fucking mouth. It connects corruption to actual consequences for people. 10 out 10 out of 10, no notes. Welcome to political experts react where you break down political ads and media, explain what the people behind them are trying to accomplish and decide whether or not they did a good job. I'm Dan Pfeiffer, from a communication director of Barack Obama and co-hosts of Pod State of America. And joining me today is noted Democratic strategist and friend of the pod, Disu Dmitzzi. How are you?

I'm good. Noted Democratic strategist. I think you're a very well-known. known very successful democratic judges. Yeah, I'm an old man is what you're saying. When I say noted, it's sort of like me putting the old school blue checkmark by you, consider the number of people who are paunting themselves off as Democratic strategists on social media and cable these days.

I refuse to, I still haven't a suckered or fallen prey to purchasing that blue checkmark in the new era of Twitter. I hate to admit this, but thank you for giving me the unofficial. I got, I got mine for free. So, all right. All right. So I want to start with an ad that's gotten a ton of attention. We talked about on POTSafe America on Friday, but I want your take as someone who's in the field working on races.

This is an ad from Florida congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar that went up last week. It's the president. Some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisors are telling you about immigration policy. The same Hispanics who help you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. You can be for immigration when Lincoln was for slavery and Reagan was for communism. I'm not talking about giving them amnesty.

I'm talking about giving them a dignified life in this promised land. I am Maria Elvirus Salazar and I approve this message. Okay, two very, very important facts for our viewers who may not be familiar with every member of Congress. Salazar is a Republican and she's a Republican from a district that Trump won by about 15 points. What does this ad tell you about how Republicans are seeing the map? Yeah, I think it is a canary in the coal mine for sure about how bad things are for Trump, and particularly how bad they are with Latino voters. You know, this is a district in southern Florida that is I think majority, super majority, perhaps even Latino, Miami-Dade County. And like you said, a place that Trump won by double digits.

And to have the local Republican member of Congress come out and that, you know, that ad was in front of the White House. literally speak directly to a president of your own party saying you're screwing up is, you know, part and parcel of what's kind of happening, I think, across America right now within the Republican Party that folks see that Trump is an anchor and, you know, their seats are in, they're the ones in danger who are on the ballot now in a couple weeks. Yeah, I think you hit on a couple important points. It was like, we know that people who are in a plus seven, plus eight, plus nine, plus ten, depending on what poll you look at generic ballot advantage of Democrats, we know that

folks in districts that Trump won by five, six, seven points. Those are races that are well within our reach. When you have someone who feels compelled to break from the president in such a public way, just literally to stick their thumb in his eye in a Republican in a Trump plus 15 district, that is a gigantic warning sign. And it speaks to the other thing, which is Trump is losing a chunk of his 2024 voters, they're voting for Democrats or they're staying home. But he's losing them at the fat greatest rate with Latinos. Yeah, Latinos and young people, I think. And of course, a lot of young people are Latino.

But yeah, it's, you know, and I saw in Axios, I think yesterday, some GOP polling that was leaked that suggests that Latino voters are supportive, generally speaking, of more restrictive immigration, certainly Florida, Latinos. You know, most of them, or I shouldn't say most, a significant portion of them are Cuban Americans in southern Florida. But the way that Trump is doing it, which. which is what the Congresswoman says in her ad, is I think a 28% support

versus a majority support for sort of generic, strict immigration policy. And, you know, I think, honestly, I think it's a pretty good ad. Obviously, as a Democrat who sort of thinks that Trump has been disgusting in his immigration policy, I agree with it. But I think from a political perspective, it's a very effective way to, I mean, to split from a popular president. And you don't see Republicans doing this very much being sort of that explicit about how how bad Trump is performing on any policy issue, let alone immigration. There had been this question about whether, you know, Florida was breaking differently because of the different makeup of Latino voters in Florida, Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Salvadorans, compared to other states like Texas were more or have a Mexican background.

And there had been this poll, I think it was a UNAZO's poll or something earlier this year, which looked at Latino voters by state. In Florida was the state where Trump had the highest approval among LATO, still not a great one, but dramatically better than Texas, Arizona, California, that's part of the country. And if you have someone in a district with a large Cuban population, that should be very concerning for Republicans. And I think what we are seeing, you know, not to beat a dead horse, is what I think those of us who are Democrats and lived through Trump won and, you know, have common sense no, which is that Trump doesn't make his own distinctions here, right? He is, and I understand why a voter might have thought differently, or at least I can understand why that might have been the case. But I think if you're a cumitorial of Venezuelan or a Salvadorian in South Florida, you're now like, wait a second, I thought this was going to be them. I can't believe the leopards are eating my face. But, you know, I don't want to diss that.

Like, great. Come back to our side. And hopefully this ad, honestly, as a Democrat, again, doesn't cause our candidate down there to lose some of those voters to the incumbent congresswoman. I think there's an open question of as to whether this ad will work. I think as a singular piece of content, it is a great way to break with the president in an attention-grabbing way. It'll get attention.

You're the first one doing it. You're in front of the White House, not just in a. you know, some sort of rented office somewhere, like a lot of campaign ads. But there is the question here of there is a lot of footage of Salazar making, not just voting for, but making the case for the $700 billion for ICE that pays for the thing she's now to cry. She should have known better, as I think, right, which is why I hope, like I said, an effective piece of content like this doesn't actually work because there is a rejoinder, which is you should have known better. You're the one you helped enable this. And we,

we elect you to know better. Exactly. We'll see. If you like this video, I would highly encourage you to sign up for my newsletter of the message box is the best way, in my very biased opinion, to stay aggressive what's happening in the midterms.

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I recommend it. I think you'll really enjoy it. Thanks so much. Pod Save America Breaking News is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. With everyday interactions becoming increasingly impersonal, someone going just one extra step can be huge. Like when my doctor takes the time to call me with test results instead of sending them electronically.

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Endless war in Iran is costing us all. Billions for bombs, brutal at our gas pumps. And Mike Rogers, a cheerleader for Donald Trump's war. Rogers claimed it would end quickly, but we keep paying the price. Our tax dollars wasted. 18 American soldiers killed. Hundreds wounded. Gas prices?

Nearly $5 a gallon. And Michigan families are holding the bag. Mike Rogers, all in on the war, all in on Trump. When Senate is responsible for the content of this ad. What do you make at this spot? 10 out of 10 no notice is what I would say. That is kind of the archetype, I think, of how you connect an unpopular war with the most important issue in this midterm, which is the cost of living.

And the reality that Trump and Mike Rogers are one in the same when it comes to both of those issues. So I think it's a great spot. like I said, it's pretty, it's pretty standard. I would assume that there will be a lot of these type of spots running in other states from Win Senate, which is, you know, the SMP independent expenditure side, doing the dirty work of going after and taking down the Republican. And it's a great ad. Yeah, I mean, ad is great.

It's interesting. Like, I track to the best of my ability as many ads as possible. And I've been shocked by how few their ads have been about specifically the Iran War. There are a lot of ads about costs, a lot of ads about costs, a lot of ads about high gas prices, but very few that have been this direct about the war, the candidate support for the war, the connection between the war and gas prices. And like, I agree with you that, you know, there is sometimes a cookie cutter element to these super PAC ads where there's going to be a version of this about Mike Watley.

There's going to be a version of this about Susan Collins. You know, you just, you can go down the line. You'll see it. But this is one of the first ones. I think it's particularly, the other interesting part here is some of the states we're going to play, there is a question, you know, whether it's Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, where the Trump thing is a little bit of a closer call because these are Trump plus 11, Trump plus 13 states is, I don't know the answers, but is the right thing to do to make it a specific about Trump. But in Michigan, essentially a 50-50 state, it is like one of the best argument. This is, I think the same, you could run this exact ad in Maine too, is like it is just absolutely. critical that you tie Rogers to a very unpopular president and that a vote for

Rogers is a vote for Trump because you need people who are pissed at Trump, who may even have some questions about Abdul to understand that the best way to express their anger at Trump is through a vote against Rogers or for Abdul. Yeah, I completely agree. And you know, in Iowa and Alaska, uh, in any state that Trump won, right, including Michigan, but that was one of the closest, but certainly those other states, the path to victory for the Democrats is through people who voted for Trump in large numbers, like majority. And while Trump is underwater everywhere now, he's underwater less in states that are redder,

obviously, right? So it's a really good point that you're probably going to see this ad with less Trump in those states and more Iran-War and costs without that all in on Trump bit at the end versus in a state like Maine. I would be honestly kind of shocked if they don't basically do the same ad made at some point with maybe more Trump because it's a bluer state. And you could also do it in North Carolina at State Trump won by a little bit more than Michigan,

but still a relatively close. You could obviously do it in Georgia, too. If we even see... If we have to spend any way there. Say maybe with North Carolina, there are some questions about whether we'll have to spend money there either. That is a high-class problem, I'll tell you. I mean, God bless those guys at S&P because I bet they had

one thought a year and a half ago about where they were going to have to be spending their money that would have included most of it going in Georgia and North Carolina, And now we're playing on an away game in places like Kansas and Iowa, you know. Well, they probably also might have taken New Hampshire and Michigan off their list a year ago, too. So they might be buying some very expensive Boston TV. We don't see some better numbers out of that today.

All right. The last ad we're going to look at is an attack ad from James Tala Rico about Ken Paxton. I'm James Tolariko and I approve this message. This is Adam Hoffman leaving jail after he admitted to sexually abusing a child. He should have spent his life in prison. Instead, Attorney General Ken Paxton offered him one day in jail. See, Hoffman's lawyer, represented one of Paxton's biggest donors, an Epstein-style sweetheart deal for a well-connected child predator.

One day in jail. Ken Paxton's corruption endangers our kids. We don't need any more pedophile protectors in Washington. This one, of course, went very viral online. Democratic activists loved it. I tweeted about it. many people tweeted about it. What did you think of the ad and how effective it might be with actual voters, not just

online nerds like myself? Yeah, I was going to say, I think it was probably doubly intended to, not unlike the Salazar ad, or in media, but the thing that I think that's the most interesting about this, and this is in general something that a good friend Jesse Ferguson has been harping on over the last couple months is it connects corruption to actual consequences for people. And I think that's probably the most important thing, like as a lot of. lesson for the rest of the world of Democrats over the course of the next seven weeks is is everybody thinks all politicians are corrupt. Certainly the voters, swing voters in general

elections, I think, kind of think everybody is corrupt. The question isn't, is he corrupt? It is, how is that going to hurt? How does that hurt me? And, you know, Trump, if you think back to 2016, this was like one of his big arguments. He was like, I'm like, sure, I'm corrupt, but so are the Clintons and I'm actually the one who knows how to fix it. All of that is to say, corruption has consequences. And what are the consequences for Texans? It is putting a child predator on the streets and endangering our kids, as it says. And so I think why it is effective is not just because it's a hard-hitting negative ad, but because it connects an issue that is maybe the second most important issue in this election, which is corruption within our government to real consequences for real people that they can

tangibly feel. They do not want child predators on their streets. Yeah. I, you know, I have a couple of different thoughts about the sound. One, when I first saw it, I loved it. And I really like it when a campaign, particularly a campaign with a really nice guy candidate, like James Telerico, shows a willingness to punch the opponent in the fucking mouth. Like you did, like, because some candidates will not do that. They are resistant to playing as tough as Republicans are going to play. So the fact that it's from, like, this is not from Senate Majority Pack.

This is not from some other Super PAC. This is from, Talaico's got to put his name at the end and say approved by James Tullerico when he does that. And I think that is a very positive sign for what he will do to win the race. Maybe that's a cynical take, but I think that is the reality of politics. So I like that. I agree with you 100 percent that the thing about corruption is you have to make it matter to people. And this is what has made, this has been the efficacy of Assaf's message over the last several months as he finds a way to connect it.

There are some questions about that. One is, you know, there's been this navigator research polling that's been out recently that shows that now people think corruption was one of the leading causes of higher costs. Yes. And so this is what Asoff has done is he's connecting all the corruption in Washington to the higher cost you're paying. This is a different move. It's not necessarily a bad move because, you know, Ken Paxton, everyone knows Ken Paxton's corrupt. And so, like, finding this very visceral, vocative way to do it.

And they've done a bunch of different ads. We watched in a previous episode of this, the one where Tala Rico, he has the guy who's penned Ken Paxton stole, his $1,000 pen. Oh, yeah. Come on and tell the story about it. And that's like a different thing. Like, there's, like, there's two ends with the corruption. His corruption is so bad that he'll let child predators on the street.

It's also so fucking regular and petty that it'll just steal a dude's pen because he likes it. It's sticky. Yeah, it's sticky. People can remember like Mitt Romney and the dog. Yeah. That's exactly right. That's exactly right. And it also shows that, like, in some ways, Tala Rico is running the democratic version of the strategy

of Republicans are trying to run. in all the other states, which is the Republicans are trying to make the Democrats so unacceptable that they will not cross the line to vote for them, right? This is all the trans ads in Ohio about Sharon Brown. It's all the stuff that Susan Collins has said she's not going to bring up it's brought up about Troy Jackson. You know, it's all that stuff. And what Tala Rico's doing, his job is to make Paxton unacceptable, right? Completely untowellateable, that it's just that you're either going to vote for James Salarico or you're going to stay home

if you're one of the many Texans who does not like Donald Trump. And I think to our earlier conversation, this is one of those states where the path to victory is through Republican voters. Like it has to be, it's Texas, and independent voters,

but like people who, certainly people who voted for Trump in large numbers. And so this is why we have a chance in Texas, right? Like Paxton is, you need everything to go right, but you certainly need an opponent

for whom it will be hard for Republican voters to vote. And Paxton already had that because he'd been impeached by a Republican legislature already. Like we already knew that he was somewhat unpalible to his own party. But these are ads that I think we are again, we're not the audience for these ads by any stretch. We're like the opposite of the audience. This is Republican voters, right-leaning conservative voters for whom you were trying to make Paxton unacceptable. And I don't know if those people are going to vote for ever going to vote for Tala Rico.

But staying home gets you, gets you something to. That's a point. Staying home as a point. See a point. Yeah. It's one point in your favor for, you know, I can't, or showing up to vote and voting for some, you know, your Congressperson. Yeah.

And then getting to the Senate on the ballot and being like, you know what, I just can't do it. I'm going to be really fascinated to see if there is an undervote on Texas Senate. Like how many more votes do, you know, maybe Abbott or other statewide elected, elected Republicans get that or even total, just total vote, right? Like how many fewer votes are cast because there are people who will vote for everyone else, but not vote for Paxton? And I think there will probably be regional differences there too, right? I wonder in West Texas, which is obviously very conservative versus like suburban places that are purple but have a lot of Republicans because of numbers in them.

Is it going to be different? Like are you going to have, is it going to be the suburban Republicans who undervote the Senate race? Is it going to be the really conservative rural Republicans? It's going to be all of them. I think at some level to win in Texas, you got to play the whole game. And this is where, you know, it's hard for Tala Rico. He's got to do everything.

He's got to maximize the black vote. He's got to swing those Latinos in the RGV. And he's got to make sure that these Republicans are just, just can't bear pulling the lever for Paxon. But it seems like we're on a path to potentially do all that. Yeah. And to last point on this, it speaks to why Telerico is running this ad. and that what makes, you know, why this is still hard, even with all our various advantages we might have, is I looked at analysis of a bunch of the polls that had Telerico ahead. And in them, the 90% of the undecided voters were Trump voters.

Now, I'd love to know where they, and they very likely may be Trump voters who disapprove of him now, which is an audience that he has a real shot with. But like, that's the last group of people he's got to get to get over the top. And I will say to people watching and listening to this, that is basically true, I think, across. the board on the Senate map. Yeah. It is, you know, getting to 48, from 48 to 51 is a battle for people who voted for Trump in 2024, who I'm not sure how they feel about him, but I think we can pretty reasonably guess that they're less bullish on him today than they were in November of 2024.

And getting, you know, that last mile is what you're going to see most of these campaigns advertising to strategizing around for the last 40-something days of the campaign. All right. to you soon. This was fun. Always great to talk to you. Always. And we'll keep our eye on the ads going forward. Sounds good.