Breaking News from Pod Save America - Trump FALLS APART as DOJ Investigation Backfires

Episode Date: January 13, 2026

Trump’s DOJ power play targeting Jerome Powell isn’t going as planned. Alex Wagner and John Heilemann break down how it’s backfiring — and what comes next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Lovers of the YouTube. It's a very special runaway country bonus, whatever, rapid response. Is that what we call it with my friend? And do we call each other, former colleagues? I guess we do. What I want to talk to you about, John Heilman. So Jerome Powell on Sunday night comes out and says, I'm being criminally investigated by the U.S. attorney, Janine Perro.

The reaction from corners, many of them within the Republican Party, has been negative, John. and and Trump is saying he didn't know anything about it. I wonder if you think we are in the season of departures and declining influence, specifically Trump's lame duck status and declining influence within the Republican Party. Is this something to pay attention to? I mean, I'm looking at it in the combination of like where Republicans are on the Venezuela, capture of Nicholas Maduro, the health care vote in the House, the Senate vote. vote on Venezuela. It just feels like Trump's powers maybe. Is it the right word waning? I don't know.

How are you looking at the moment? Waiting is, waiting is definitely a word. I want to, I want to put a pin in one thing that I want to come back to for sure that I won't talk about right now, but we will talk about it in a minute, which is science. Science. Okay, we will. Great. Because there's a, there was an almost totally un, it was reported, but, but no one has made a big deal out of it. And it seems like a big deal to me in terms of like tea leaf reading around how Republicans feel about Trump and how they're trying to quietly in some cases, in this case, in particular, kind of find some distance from him because they realize what political poison he is for them heading into the midterms in 2026 if we stay on the current path. But before we do that,

let's just talk about Jerome Powell for a second. Yeah. So I would say when I first started writing about politics and the economy and stuff, I was the Economist magazine, and people would say, the word people would use around Fed chairs was phlegmatic. It was always like, the Fed chair is flagmatic. The Fed, you know, Alan Greenspan, they go before Congress. For people who don't know what flagmatic is, could you offer some context clues? Boring, you know, mushmouth, indecipherable. Like, that was what their job was. They would go and testify before Congress and they would say a bunch of things in a monotone that no one could understand because they would just talk the language of federal, of central bankers.

And this was seen as a good thing. You had to basically take a Fed chair to, there's a conference they do at Jackson Hole every year. If you got the Fed chair like on a canoe and got him drunk, he would maybe say something that was like a little bit like a little bit spicy, not really spicy, but kind of like we're might raise interest rates next year or maybe we'll lower them a little bit. Did that happen? Like drunken canoe rides with Fed chair?

I love the concept. drunk and canoeized with the Fed chair. And, you know, Alan Greenspan, of course, the kind of archetypal modern Fed chair. Nomik, you know, sort of, you know, you looked at that guy, but people. Nomik, as in Gn-O-M-I-C. That's correct. You know, and, you know, once one of the members of what Time magazine called the Committee to Save the World in 1999, when it was Bob Rubin, Larry Summers, and Alan Green spent,

like we're going to save the world. from the first financial crisis in Mexico in 1998 or 1999. And then you had Ben Bernanke. Remember Ben Bernanke? Oh, yeah, I sure do. You don't really remember Ben Bernanke, but you kind of do, right? I do, I do. I remember how forgettable he was.

Yes, also, flagmatic, right? Jerome Powell is, like, more phlegmatic than those two guys. Like, he's a guy, he does not want to be, did not want to be, has not wanted to be a resistance hero. He never, doesn't know what an adjective or an adverb are. He speaks in precise, technical, really, really boring language about what he's going to do. He keeps his card so close to his chest that you get that they're like inside. They're under like six layers of parkas.

No one knows. He's never said anything memorable ever, ever until this weekend. Until Sunday. And when he put this video out, part of the reason why the video is powerful to people was because of that like Uber ultra-flagmatic nature that he was so resistant to being part of the resistance to suddenly come out and go. say what was clear to everybody, which was the president's try to open a criminal investigation against me that has no basis in fact whatsoever. It's absolutely, I mean, I didn't say these words, but effectively for Jerome Powell, he basically said, this is total bullshit.

And the only reason he's doing this is because I'm not bending to his will. I'm not doing what he wants me to do. I'm doing what I'm legally obligated to do, which is served a public interest. And steward the economy is according to mostly technical data that these people look at. Like, you know, they have an obligation to, they have a price target, they have an inflation target, they look at all this data that comes into the various Federal Reserve banks around the country, and they make a determination on interest rates on almost entirely technical grounds. It's just like what's going on with the economy? We are supposed to, our primary goal by chartered legislative mandate at the Fed is price stability. That is their job.

They're not in charge of employment. They're not in charge of growth. They're in charge of keeping inflation under control. And so they look for signs of inflation and they make their determination on the basis of what they see in the data. That's it. And he's like, I'm just going to keep doing that. That's what I'm doing. And Trump is pissed.

And he's trying to fuck with me. He's trying to get me to quit or he's trying to fire me or he's now, maybe he's going to try to throw me in jail. And whatever, I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing. That has, you know, in a world where everybody's hair is on fire. His hair's never been on fire. And even in this video, his hair wasn't on fire. But it was very. Well, the virtue of the, you know, and I was bracing.

It was bracing. the notion that the Fed chair in a Sunday video recording posted to the internet, I mean, this is just, right? I mean, this is politics in the age of Trump, right? Like both the immediacy of the video, the sort of like rapid response to paraphrase what we're doing or not paraphrase. Callback of what we're doing here. It actually displays, I think, a mastery of like how you. The moment?

Yeah. How you really manage the moment. But I mean. Except for the fact that it's just like so many people don't. keep their powder dry now. And he's been a mass, I mean, look, I don't think he would ever, he, you had to push Jerome Powell really far to get him to do this. He then did, he then did it in this very powerful way that gained, I think, its power from the fact that he's been so reticent all along to get into political fights because this is the guy does not want political fights. And of course,

it's backfired to your point, right, which is. Well, it's backfired in fairly spectacular fashion, right? I mean, I think there are, there are statements from financial institutions around the world, which Trump, I do think cares about. The markets did not like this at all. His own Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. I'm not sure I would ever call him one of the people that is out there to save the world, but nonetheless has expressed his displeasure about this. Lisa Murkowski, an important Senate voice, the one that's often at odds with Trump, but other members of his own party in the House and the Senate who aren't normally accustomed to criticizing the president in public fashion. Right. And I just want to.

wonder is this like and I will say it's the most Trump thing ever to spend the summer bitching about Jerome Powell and threatening him with lawsuits and then when the lawsuit comes out to say like oh I don't know anything about that just never met it never never never never met that lawsuit barely know that lawsuit jane piero under the bus and the in jean perro's involvement in any of this but do you think that smacks of trump's declining confidence in the decision to investigate well I think Trump's I thought look what hasn't happened and what could happen if there's a totally interesting thing going on with that's been going on throughout Trump 2.0 with Wall Street where, you know, you remember what happened with Liberation

Day. It was like, the initial rollout, the market's freaked out. And then Trump tacoed, right? He like backed away from it and was like, okay, I'm not really going to do that. And that like sent the signal to a lot of people on Wall Street that, you know, Trump might, a lot of this is from their point of view, it's bullshit. He's going to say something. He's going to test the water.

The market reacts really badly. he's going to pull back, he's going to change course. And in this case, you didn't see the market's crater. It was like there was like the bond market ticked up a little bit. The stock market went down a little bit. Gold prices rose a little bit. It was like, and now everything's kind of stabilized. I think not because the market doesn't value Fed independence because rich people, rich people,

rich people like understand that the difference between a country that has an independent central bank, not just the United States, but others in Europe and ones that are in Latin America and other places where they're politically controlled central banks is the difference between hyperinflation and where you turn into Brazil or Argentina or something that they can build their financial businesses around. That stability is core to them getting rich. Right. And so part of their attitude is, a large part of their attitude is if they really thought Trump was going to try to fire, they may be wrong about this. They may be wrong about this, by the way, but if they really thought this, I've had this conversation with people on Wall Street for the last

year. I'm like, Trump really wants to get rid of your own pal. And big people in private equity hedge funds in the big banks, they also go, yeah, that'd be really bad. He's not going to do that. And I'm always sort of like, well, I mean, the available evidence suggests he's going to, that he really wants to do it. Whether he will or not, you know, don't know. Ask Nicholas Maduro. I don't know. Totally. It's like, the funny thing about Trump is that like everything he does, he broadcast in advance first. But There are things he broadcast that he then doesn't do. So it's, you know, it's, it's not like you, you have to take everything he says seriously because he might very well follow through.

If he says that he probably means it for the moment, but he might change his mind. But, I guess, this is, you are expressing the conundrum of this moment because I do believe, right, the taco, the taco season of taco for people who are not familiar with that shorthand, that's Trump always chickens out, T-A-O. Also, Alex and I have a different, a different language on tacos, which is just, you know. We do. We like a, we like a carnage. Or maybe, yeah. Anyway, that's it. That's a chicken tinga. Anyway, the, that was like, that was like, I feel like that was last season a little bit. I mean, I do think the Venezuela strike, right? And following it up with, we're going to annex Greenland, Mexico. We're coming for you. Columbia. Watch your back. Signals a guy who's like in the zero fuck stage of the presidency. And I will say I wrote about this on my substack. How the hell with Alex Wagner. The Powell thing isn't just about, you know, you know, fucking over. So.

that's critical of Trump. It's not just about owning the libs and doing something audacious. It's about the 2026 election. I mean, it is a form of election interference because he's completely bungled the U.S. economy. And he thinks interest rates are the key to Republicans holding the House. He doesn't really give a shit about Republicans. He just doesn't want to get impeached if Democrats take the House, right? So, like, he has a vested interest in Powell, Powell sort of going away in whatever capacity he can. And I wonder if that just makes it different than the typical taco maneuvers.

Well, I don't want to, you know, I've given up the prediction business a long time ago, but I will say that, but I will say this, right? The fact that Trump, look, every president

I've ever covered, everyone, George Herbert Walker Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden,

they all hate that chairs. They're all really frustrated. They all are frustrated. And all of them, Bush even writes about it as a book. He had Bernanke out of Greenspan for the first, I think,

four or five years and then he had Bernanke after that. And he was pissed at them all the time. And he writes in his book, he's like, I was pissed all the time. I thought they were wrong and I didn't do anything or ever say anything about it. Not because he doesn't say this, but he doesn't say, because I believe in the principle of Federal Reserve Bank independence. He goes, because I thought it would make it worse. If I started to try to jawbone the Fed, they would just make the markets unrestive.

It would mess up the things I was most worried about. So I thought it was in my political interest in addition to the nation's economic interest, which are a lot of cases are kind of the same thing. If the economy's strong, I do well. If the economy's bad, I do bad politically. I'll just keep my mouth shut. Even though, man, this guy makes me fucking nuts. I would love to give this guy up sock in the kisser. You know, Trump is the guy who if he really got what he wanted, if Powell turned around tomorrow and did he's like, Trump was just on TV, maybe today.

we did a big fat rate cut, you know, because the inflation numbers came out. He's like, the inflation's really low. Of course, it's the same as it's been. It's really higher than it was at the end of Biden. But whatever, he's like, the inflation is low. It's time for a big rate cut. Big, fat, juicy rate cut. Give it to us.

Powell's fact-based analysis is if we gave you a juicy rate cut, what you get is more inflation. If you've got more inflation, prices would be going up. And Trump's core political problem would just be worse, which is that everybody who listened to to them in 2024 saying, I'm going to bring prices down. cutting rates is just going to drive the prices up again, according to some... Make Mother's Day even more special at Whole Foods Market. Kick off brunch or dinner with quality cheese and charcutory with no synthetic nitrates. Then go seafood.

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And it's like it's the ignoramusness. It's the his core fundamental belief in tariffs is attached to his core fundamental. The tariffs are good and interest rate cuts are good under any circumstance. And you're like, dude. So dumb. Even in some cases where tariffs might be good in a limited, targeted way, it's just all these things, nothing's all good always. Nothing's all bad always. And rate cuts, you know, again, I say, take a little tour through recent Latin American history where they cut interest rates

like crazy and watch inflation go to like 35%. It's like, that's not going to get Republicans reelected in next November. It's just going to make the situation even worse for him. So you're kind of like, there's these moments where you want to be like, you know what, maybe we should give Trump what he wants. You know, Jerome Powell should say, hey, okay, how big would you like the rate cut, sir? Would you like a full point? Would you like a point and a half? Let's do that and see what happens over the next three months. And then we'll find out who was right and who was wrong about this.

It's like, you know. Little just a fuck you contest. I don't really want him to do that, obviously. But there are moments when Trump is so stupid. Like the Supreme Court case on tariffs, right? Supreme Court will likely save Trump by telling him that these tariffs are they have to get rid of these tariffs. Instead, it's like in some world where we were just dealing. dealing with rough justice, you would want the Supreme Court to go, you know what, these are

fucking, if this was another Supreme Court in a different world, they'd be like, you know what, these tariffs are the biggest cause of your political problems. The economy is shit. You haven't made good on your core promises. We're just going to let you hang yourself with your own, let you have your own news and hang yourself. But I'm saying like there's a, there's a part of you that like, you know, the fantasy. Yes, rough justice.

No, no. Make this man pay the price, the full price for his, his lunacies and his stupidities. And his idiocy about the economy in particular, it's like, hey, I'm going to make the 2024 election all about the economy and prices. And then I'm just going to do everything I can to not allow me to come close to meeting those promises. I'll tell you something else. Here's another thing I'll tell you. You're going to love this. The first long profile that I wrote for the New Yorker magazine, you know what that was about?

Geneer, Piro. Oh, my God. Can we talk about the psychology of this a little bit? yeah, as of someone with an insider's understanding of Janine Piro and what makes her tick. The two things I remember about that story was, I went down, I was right after the 20, about the, after the 1996 election and Tina Brown was like, you got to write this story about Jeanine Piro. The, the, the, the, the whole, there was an incredible photo that went with it that

was like almost like softcore porn. But I went down to, I can't unsee that. I'm sorry. Oh, I went to, I went to, I went to, I went to, I went to visitor in Palm Beach. in Palm Beach where she and her husband Al had a house and I also went to visit her in her house on Westchester and two things I remember about this is I was starting to get ready.

She was the Westchester County a prosecutor at the time. And I went and I thought two things. One, she had this little dog that pissed all over the place all the time, constantly pissed. Pissed on the furniture. Pissed on the furniture. Pissed on the furniture. Pissed on the furniture. Pissed on her. Pissed just with this dogs, every dog's everywhere in Palm Beach.

And the other thing was that her husband, Al, was obviously a crook. I mean, he was a mobbed up. He was in the carting business in New Jersey, you know. I mean, he was a mobbed up criminal. This is all true. He was eventually, was I believe, indicted, and I can't remember how it all. He might have gone to prison.

He was, obviously, he was in the Sopranos. He was like, he was like pre-sopranos, soprano. I was like, oh, my God, this guy's. And she's the prosecutor over here. And this guy's obviously in the mob. And which, like, more than one of the five. families, how am I going to write this story? It was not a good story.

It was very conflicted piece. Because Tina was sort of like, she's doing some interesting things about online predatory behavior, the internet and trying to protect children. And I was kind of like, well, first of all, things she's doing really bad. And second of all, she's obviously bad. She's crazy. And the husband should be in prison. Hard to write a profile like that and not lose your mind a little bit.

Well, but I mean, I will say without being, you know, armchair psychology here, as she may be attracted to or, or find kinship with individuals who have mob-like tendencies. She's certainly working. She's certainly doing the bidding of the Don, who was in the White House. The husband and the president are, would have been peas in the pod. I don't know what their personal relationship was,

but they would have been, they would have gotten out like a house on fire. Can we just, but to my central, to the other point that I'm trying to get you on before this brilliant. Before this rapid fire kind of going on. But I just, I do wonder, the big picture here is like Trump on some level, I think, cares less than he used to. He doesn't have to get reelected unless we just devolve into full on dictatorship. Either way, he doesn't have to get reelected again.

Do you think his influence in the party is waning? I mean, he's certainly doing everything he can to make, like, difficult for his counterparts on the hill. And they are, whether it is a vote. vote in the Senate on Venezuela or whether it is a vote in the House on health care subsidies or whether it's the Epstein files or the Powell investigation. Like there's much more stern and drang from Republican ranks than there has been any time since he became president. And I count the 2016 election in that. And I guess am I overstating like my optimism and thinking that this could be

the beginning of a more restive Republican conference that. that sort of doesn't maybe kneel down as bow down quite as low as they did before. Am I, is that misplaced, optimism? Yeah. No, no, I totally. I hear you. Yeah, I got you. I think that the smart, the smart political insider answer to this is, and I think it's not wrong, is we've seen various small signs of that.

It's not huge. And there's still a lot of fear of Trump. And that fear is going to continue until all the primary deadlines pass. It's like it's just a calendar thing. For a lot of Republicans, they're like, they don't want to get primaried. So they want their, if they're looking at Trump denying that there's an affordability crisis. He did that speech when he went on the road for the first time in six months. He did that speech in Pennsylvania in December.

And he's like, there is, he's mocking the affordability thing. He says it's a hoax, et cetera, et cetera. Every Republican in a frontline district was like, fuck, man. Like, you know, like, and they're all thinking, I can't how, I can't have this. But if I make it to the general. election. If I get through the primary, I can't have this guy. If he's going to be talking like this, I can't have him come to my district. And it's hard for Republicans to imagine saying, no, President Trump, don't come to my district. But they looked at the crowd. It wasn't that big. And he's

saying this crazy shit that's just not in their political interest. So they're all like, you know, but they all have to get through primary season. And a lot of the primaries, you know, the filing deadlines for the primary, for primary time in the Republican and Democratic Party, as a lot of those filing deadlines are in the first quarter of this year. So I think, you know, one assessment is that you're seeing these little. flickers of trying to get separation from Trump of pushing back against Trump, or if not pushing back publicly, just sort of like quietly kind of try to tiptoe away from him so that they can have some space to run against him more if they can get past the primary deadline.

Once they're past the primary deadline and Trump hasn't decided to primary them, they're now going to be the nominee and they can, they'll be freer. They'll still have to deal with the possibility of a tweet. But for some of these people in the frontline districts, if Trump tweets against them, it'll help them, right? So there's just, I think when you're going to see the thing that you're hoping for and that common sense would like to see happen where Republicans finally are like, okay, this guy clearly, he says he desperately says he does, he would, a bunch of stuff he's doing suggests that he

understands that losing the house would be bad for him in a variety of different ways. But his behavior is not like monomaniically focused on what can I do to help House Republicans, you know? I mean, the redistricting thing was was a naked. example of that. But in a bunch of other friends, he's doing stuff that's just, you know, not popular. The ice stuff is not popular. The Venezuela thing is not gone down as badly with his base as people thought it might. But, you know, if he starts, if he does Greenland, if he does, and he keeps rolling, Cuba, Columbia, does all these, you know, all of it is just,

it's making people arrested. But here's my thing I said before I wanted to come back to, okay? Story in the New York Times. And just for the thing, this will make you happy. This will make you happy. It's science. Okay. Story in the New York Times. Buttoning it up so nicely. Thank you. What is it? It's going to make you happy because no one I believe on cable news has talked about this and I think it's important. In the New York Times the other day, Congress is rejecting Trump's steep budget cuts to science. After the White House called for billions of dollars in funding reductions, senators and representatives said they wanted to safeguard even boost funds for basic research. So out of the Senate Appropriations Committee, the Trump had proposed an overall cut in scientific funding from federal scientific funding from $154 billion to 100, from $100.

198 billion to 154 billion, 22%, the largest reduction in federal spending on science since World War II. Okay. The Senate Appropriations Committee last week put out a bipartisan package of bills that scrapped all of the cuts and is going to, is his earmarked 188 billions for federal research. So only a 4% drop rather than a 22% drop. And for the National Science Foundation, which was Trump and had proposed. had proposed to cut that from $8.8 billion to $3.9 billion. The Senate package earmarks $8.75 billion, less than 1% on the National Science Foundation, and on basic research, a 2% increase on basic research. Now, this is really like wonky shit.

No, it's not. I mean, this is actually what we do. This is what the American public wants the government to invest in. And it matters, right? There's nothing. Like American scientific research is part of like why the country is great, really great. Not make America great, but like great. Why it's been great since World War II?

Because we funded basic research and other kinds of scientific research at a level that no other country in the world has been able to do. And it's why we're not that we don't have a monopoly on innovation, but we've had most by the disproportionate amount of important research breakthroughs, innovation. And companies based on that innovation has come from that kind of federal seed money that's gone on for the past 50 or 60 years. And the Trump administration were like, we're going to gut it. And now quietly, the Senate Appropriations Committee on a bipartisan basis is like, no. And I will bet you that those numbers end up being the final numbers that kind of come in on this stuff. Because that is stuff that's super popular in all these districts. Because a lot of that scientific research is distributed to universities all over the country.

Every district has some biotech research at their local state university, the big, it's technical colleges. All these places have been doing important work based on that research. A lot of people have lost their jobs in a lot of congressional districts because that research was supposed to be cut. And now if they refund it, it will open the door back again to people going, oh, okay, it was just a bunch of talk. Now, we know it wasn't just a bunch of talk.

Trump wanted to cut it. Musk wanted to cut it. But the fact that the House and the Senate Republicans, and again, I think the whole the Senate and, you know, the house will be a little bit dodgier. But I think in the end, this stuff's going to get restored to where it was before. And it's because people are like, this is the thing we can slip past Trump because he doesn't really notice. He's not really paying attention. And we need to be able to go and campaign on the fact that that these scientific research jobs at universities in every district in the country didn't get gutted by the chainsaw asshole and the orange dude in the White House.

How do you like them apples, Donald Trump? Don't talk about it too much, though. John Heilman. I know. I just got to say, look, you were looking for signs of hope. I was watching the last. Listen, the signs of rebellion are discreet, but they are worth focusing on. If your hope is like suddenly Republicans are going to have the Mr. Smith moment or the McCarthy, have you know, decency moment, just live in the real world. There's not going to be a bunch of Republicans who are going to stand up on chairs and be like, fuck you, Donald Trump. I'm so sick of it. There, but this is the way the resistant, the, that split starts to happen Islam.

Show me what democracy looks like. This is what democracy looks like. This is what you start to see. And the big question for our day, Alex Wagner, as I know, we have to bring this to a close. Yeah, is the end of the new Chappelle special on Netflix. He gets to the end of the thing. And he basically looks, he's in Washington, D.C. And he looks up and he goes, everybody, stay calm, stay rational.

Don't like lose your minds. He's like, we're going to wait out this orange motherfucker. That's the end of the special. He's like, we're going to wait this orange motherfucker out. And I think that that at the end of last year, was the biggest difference from the beginning of last year. Because for the most of the first six months of the year, it was like, I don't know if we can wait this guy out.

I mean, like, I don't know. And he got a rousing round of applause in D.C. when it was, you know, still under federal, still is under federal occupation. But people were like, the sign that like maybe, not that like things are not that were out of the woods. Yeah. Your buddies, the Johns were on my podcast at the end of the year.

And they both said the same thing. Love it and Favre were both like, he's weaker than he's ever been, but that makes him dangerous because he's cornered. I agree with that. And there's still, man, a lot of, you could do so much damage over the next three years. But the fact that there's this little spark where you're like, we might be able to wait it out with like the thing. The thing might survive, Alex.

The thing might survive. The patient might pull through. That's all we can hope for. I'm standing in the R. Like bringing in cookies, standing vigil. And bread from bread alone. And bread from bread alone. Bread from bread alone.

That's a deep stuff. Mata from upstate. John Heilman, political sense. master, Zen master of the art of politics. Namaste, and thank you for your time here on Runaway Country. We appreciate you and your brilliant thoughts. Aloha, aloha, namaste, mahalo, all that stuff. And just let me know what kind of a loaf you want me to bring you from upstate next time I'm in town.

I'll get you that. Whatever you want from bread alone. I'm a bread delivery man. And we're talking literally about bread here, not about weed or anything else. We're just talking about actual bread. Beautiful. Thank you, man. A text says, you're on my mind.

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