Bulwark Takes - After 75 Days of Shutdown, They End It Like This? (w/ Jake Sherman)

Episode Date: May 1, 2026

Sam Stein talks with Jake Sherman about a week of House chaos that somehow ended in a string of wins—key bills passed, a shutdown quietly ended, and hardliners once again backed down. They break down why the threats never stick, how Mike Johnson keeps his conference in line, and why Republicans are still sticking with Trump even as his numbers slide—plus what it all means for redistricting and the coming midterms.For a limited time, listeners can get an exclusive $25 off AuraFrame's best-selling Carver Matframe at https://on.auraframes.com/BULWARKTAKES with code BULWARKTAKES.Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and Los Angeles in May: https://thebulwark.com/events

Hey, everyone. It's me, Sam Stein again, managing out of The Bullwork. And I'm joined by Jake Sherman, founder of Punch Bowl, a fellow Camp Lorwood alum. Jake and I went to the same camp. I'm a little bit older, I think, than James. Yeah, but Sam, people don't realize the, the significance of Camp Laurewood in northeastern Jewish camp lore. It's just, it is, it was such a powerhouse for Connecticut kids for so long. And we're not talking, Sam, about a fan. fancy camp. No. We are talking about a very rudimentary. It had a lake. It had several lakes. It has two pools. The facilities were great, but it's not like the kind of camp that you have like, you're like chilling in air, although I do think they have air-conditioned punks now, but back of the 90s. Back in the 90s, we were not in air-conditioned bucks. We were not in air-conditioned bucks. All right? Elliot Honing went there too, right? He did. He did. And I'm trying to think who else. You know who else went there? Craig Breslo of the Red Sox.

Oh, no. Yep. Oh, no. I have my problem with Craig these days, but we won't. We won't hold that against him. He's a camp, Laura would a love. That really sucks. Okay, well, we're not here to talk about camp or Jewish camps, for that matter.

I could go on for hours. We're here to talk about the house and what's happened here. Jake is, I think, I don't want to inflate your fucking ego. Fuck. All right. Jake's one of the best reporters on the house. Get it out of my system. He's covered.

it better than anyone. His head is giant for that reason because everyone tells him how great he is, but he is good. So I haven't been following the drama this week as closely as Jake has, and I just felt like it's important to go over what actually transpired because it's meaningful. We're going to do that, and then we're going to get into some larger picture stuff by the state of the race and what we think about redistricting and the midterms. Before we do that, just a quick plug, subscribe to the bulwark. Subscribe to Punchball.

I'm going to do that, too. And then we got two live shows coming up for the ball. Bullwork out in San Diego in LA, May 20th and May 21st, go to the Bullwork.com slash events for tickets to those. You get to go to those, Sam? Well, I'm in them. If you want to come out West. I don't really, but that's exciting for you. Maybe we can make you our surprise guest at the other one. All right, a lot of legislative business day. We're recording at like three o'clock on Thursday. And for a while earlier this week, it seemed like everything was shambolic and going to fall apart. And then as I peered up today, it looks like.

they took care of business. So walk us through sort of broadly what the big legislative movements were today. So a few things. We started this week and Mike Johnson was going to put three bills in the floor. A farm bill, which is a huge bill. It's not just far. You know this, Sam, but I'll just explain a little bit more. It's not just farm policy. It's nutrition policy. It's it is farm policy. It's a whole host of things that are critical to the fabric of the country. And that's one. The second was a budget resolution, kind of convoluted, but sets up a vote to fund ICE and CBP for three years that Republicans only will vote for. And the third thing is extending FISA. This is obviously the foreign surveillance program that the United States could basically surveil people without a

warrant over, over, you know, telephones and things like that. I didn't think that they could pass that rule because my maxim is when you add hard things to hard things, they only get harder. They do not get easier. And I say that all the time. They did pass it. So Mayaculpah, I've already said that to many people in the leadership. They did pass it. They really worked it hard to pass it over two hour period. And then they passed the farm bill, which is going to only get jammed up in the Senate. So it's a nice victory for them. It's a moral victory. It's not huge. Why will it get jammed up in the Senate? They just have different views of farm policy.

We don't have at Punchable News pride of authorship. We are happy if anybody at our company writes anything. They do have pride of authorship up here. The Senate wants it stamp on ag policy. And I understand that both chambers want to do that. The third thing is amazingly, the House ended the 75, 76, depending on how you calculate it day, DHS shutdown by voice vote. Right. Which is just unbelievable.

why is that unbelievable? Yeah, why is that unbelievable? Well, it's unbelievable for a few reasons. Number one, the House Speaker, Mike Johnson said he wasn't going to pass this bill. He had problems with it. And he was going to write his do a slightly different bill. And if they passed it by voice vote after dumping all over the Senate for passing it by unanimous consent in the middle of the night, they passed the same bill by voice vote in the middle, not in the middle of the night, but in the middle of the day. And this is. was a 75-day shutdown. This was a very long shutdown that had, I mean, humongous impacts. The impacts were a little bit lessened by the fact that the administration paid DHS workers by executive order. But main takeaway is that nothing comes easy in this house. And, you know, I just have one more point to make. And this has been rattling in my head for a while. And maybe this is the perfect place to say it. The speaker and House Republicans like to say, we have a time. majority like give well you have a tiny majority for a reason voters only elected a certain number of house republicans because that's how the election went it's not like they were like you know they've got

like taken members off the playing field for like you know for penalty it's not like they're a penalty box sure voters only elected a certain number of house republicans so anyway so um i look at it i'm i'm you know every time it seems to follow a very familiar pattern, which is the conservatives in the caucus raise hell. They say they're not going to vote for these things. They demand changes. They demand reforms. They storm out of meetings with the leadership.

They have histrionics on the floor. They say never again. And then Mike Johnson and his team and Donald Trump start working them. And they work them and they work them. And eventually they relent. And it seems like that was the case basically, at least with FISA for sure. and with the DHS ICE bill in this case. Is that basically what happens every single time?

Yes. But in this instance, it was a bit more complex in that on the DHS bill, there was this idea that they needed to see what the future path was to doing all to funding ICE and CBP and make sure that they were actually going to fund them for three years. But I'll be honest with you. And this is something that I've struggled with a lot personally over the last couple years is I give the conservatives way too much credit. Like I believe their threats. I take them at their, I don't take them at their word, but they're like, we're going to vote against the bill.

When you say on the record, I am going to vote against this bill. Like, I don't know, that seems like a pretty good thing to take to the bank. But they always fold for nothing. Well, you've adopted a moniker now, right? Known to fold. Known to fold. KTF. Yes. And that's a lot of, it's a lot of people in the house, Sam. And, you know, it is Trump when they need him. But it's really Johnson and Scalese. And some of the things they do, they do like make policy concessions or strategic concessions that are not, you know, out of the ordinary or they're not getting bought off. And some of them are actually like decent enough and legitimate enough policy complaints. But they just fold all the damn time. It's unreal.

And they don't really get a ton for it. Well, why do you think they fold then? I mean, what is it? What explains that be even than? They get worn down. They get worn down. And I mean, at the end of the day, like, most of this stuff is stuff Trump wants, you know? And, and, you know, I don't, I think they look around to what happened to someone like Marjorie Taylor Green and what's happening to Tom Massey in Kentucky.

And like, his grip over the party is still incredibly strong. and a lot of the times what they're asking for is not, you know, they know it's not doable. They have to put up a good fight and they eventually relent when it's clear that they can't win and when they want to go home. Yeah, I'm trying to think of the most notable break that has happened in this Congress in the House specifically. And the only thing that really jumps out was the Epstein-Files disclosure legislation. and the only break was among four or five members there.

And that's all it took because it's such a narrow majority. But has there been another instance where they've had problems to that degree? Well, the FC think was a bit more complex because I think it was terribly mismanaged by the House Republican leadership in ways that are like quite profound. How so? Well, you know, I think this, I think the speaker gave power or not, gave power, but let Comer run the investigation, James Comer. And I think that was, that was risky. And he showed why that was risky. He lost control the process. I mean, it turned out that the subpoenas that he issued were, I would say, a little bit, there were very wide. And believe me,

I think that they should get all the information out. I'm not defending, keeping the information private. But from a strategic point of view, I just think that it was an example where the leadership, I think needed to be more involved in the investigation than they wanted to be. And at the end of the day, Sam, this was the kind of thing that was, you guys have talked about, and everyone has talked about it, has been stoked by the Republican base, stoped by a Republican president, and then Republicans are going to vote against it and be against. Yeah, that was sort of untenable, right? It's like they set it up and they, and they got, they tripped themselves up on that one.

Yeah. But absent that, they've managed to really. keep folks in line. I mean, budget bills, spending bills, things that tripped up Paul Ryan, Kevin McCarthy, you know, little Mike Johnson, this, you know, previous backbencher from Louisiana who no one thought had leadership chops somehow has gone everyone in line. This is a debate we have internally a lot between myself and John Bresnehan, who is my co-founder, my longtime colleague dating back almost 20 years, you have to give Johnson a lot of credit for what he's been able to do. Whether you think it's good policy or not, that's a different question.

Just like when people say, you know, they think Nancy Pelosi sticks. It's like if you can't admit that Nancy Pelosi is an incredibly effective speaker, then you're just, you're diluting yourself and you're not a serious person. She's been incredibly, she was incredibly effective. Johnson has been somewhat effective. He passed. I mean, what you think of the one big, beautiful. bill act from a policy or political perspective is almost irrelevant. He got it through in a narrow

voting climate, narrow majority. I mean, it's a, it's pretty, and it's a pretty narrow bill. And I don't think it'll, I'm not sure to have much impact in the election, whatever, but he got it done. Yes, the government shut down. Yes, DHS have shut down. But he's been able to keep people together. He has survived kind of a half-hearted attempt to oust him. I don't know what will, there. I will say there's a lot of grumbling internally in the House Republican Conference about him. But what are the main complaints? Oh, just nonsense. He doesn't have a political bone in his body.

He's, you know, and I don't know that I agree with that or disqual. I thought it would be more like he's too hierarchical. He demands things. He's not giving us open floors, things like that. No, but he's given. He's put a lot of power in the committee chairs to some degree. but I will say like people feel like, you know, and this is a conversation I've had with him and his team a lot about like his relationship about Trump. And what he says is like he works out

his problems with Trump behind closed doors. When it get when when the issues become public, they've already settled them effectively. That's another complaint that he's too closely tied to Trump and Trump's got 30% approval ratings and like, are we going to follow him down this ditch? but there's a lot of griping because nothing is easy. Everything is drama. And I don't know that that's his fault exactly, but. Well, I mean, that's just life in the age of Donald Trump. Buller takes a sponsor by Aura Frames.

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with code bulwark takes. That's A-U-R-A-Fraims.com. promo code, bulwark takes. Support the show by mentioning us at checkout. In terms and conditions do apply. I actually am kind of curious about Trump and the grip because he's at like 33, 35% approval. And you don't have to like have a master's in Pollyside and realize that things aren't

going particularly well politically for him and that it doesn't pretend a particularly great midterms. And I would say traditionally, if you were an endangered. injured lawmaker in a party that's in the majority, you would be making fairly overt overt overtures to show your bipartisan bona fides and break with your party. And yet, minus that guy out in California, what's his face? Kevin Kiley, who is like, I'm an independent now. There's not really much, right? Like, I can't really recall anyone with a dramatic break. I mean, the break's been margin Let's say, okay, I'll tell you something you should watch out for because they're going to do this.

They're going to do a reconciliation bill. So a one party bill to fund ICE and CBP, that should pass pretty easily. No problems there are in my estimation. If there's problems, there's going to be on the right because they're going to want more. Now, there's another reconciliation bill they want to do with a bunch of other policies, including the SAVE Act and other spending policies and all sorts of stuff. that is going to be a place where you're going to see a lot of moderate saying no thanks. I'm not cutting anymore from social safety net programs.

I'm not doing anything else that resembles cuts effectively. I think you'll see it there. But like, listen, they've held their party together on the war, on a whole host of things that I've been surprised about. Yeah, 100%. It's been a bit of surprise. Let's talk about redistricting. So, I mean, fuck, it's like impossible to keep track of which states are doing what and whatnot. In the end, it seems like Republicans, depending on how they respond to the Supreme Court ruling around the Voting Rights Act, will end up with a marginal to midsize gain, maybe like four or five seats.

What do you think? I don't know about that. I don't know about that. All right. What's your take of the state of place? Without the Voting Rights Act, they were losing, right? They were they were without the Supreme Court decision on the voting rights. Right.

Exactly. Sorry. Yes. Without the decision being clear. Yeah. Let's be abundantly clear. They would have been losing. Now, if Louisiana redraars, which they already said they will, then you'll get another seat

out of Louisiana. That's the district that runs northwest from New Orleans of Baton Rouge, which is a blue district, the only one of two blue districts in Louisiana. Then you look at a state like Tennessee. Does Tennessee redraw? do a lot of these Southern states redraw. They're going to come under tremendous pressure to do so. Now, does Florida get four seats?

Except the problem that I have, and we've been covering this a ton because we have Allie Muttnick, who I think is the best house boarder around. Didn't you edit her, Sam? I always, I edited her. I love it. So in Florida, the thing that Ali and I always talk about is like, and this is a little bit in the weeds, but you'll understand why I'm saying this.

Like you're basing these seats off of 20, 24 results for Republicans in a state like Florida where Trump did really well with Hispanics and had great, great results of Florida. Like, that's not a great benchmark for Republicans. I don't know if they're ever going to be able to live up to that again. Yeah. Let me just add to that. And I don't know how much this matters, but you've seen on the state level in Florida a few results that suggests that there's a recalibration happening, right?

Yeah. Yeah. So there is that, there is that element. And then there's the legal element, too. I mean, I was talking to Mark Caput about this. And the state constitution's pretty clear. Like, there's going to be some real challenges to this. He'll probably prevail Desantis. But it's not a, at least Mark's interpretation was as much closer to a 50, 50 proposition that people were giving it credit for. I think he's right about that. And he is a true Florida man, Mark is. And but the only thing is that DeSantis has appointed six, the seven. Yes. The Supreme Court justices in Florida. What does that mean? But you're right.

The state constitution explicitly prohibits redistricting based on partisan outcome. Intent. Yeah. Yeah. Intent. But yeah, I mean, I think at the end of the day, California and Texas probably wash.

And if you assume some of these seats in Texas, Republicans aren't even, you know, guaranteed to win. And you've also seen some states, Sam, take a pass from Democrats, Maryland, where they could have gained a seat, said no, right? Illinois said no. So it's not, it, it's, well, I don't know where it will come out in the wash. And the VRA decision certainly complicates matters to a great degree. Sure. Let's say in theory, a bunch of like three or four Republican states in the South basically say, yeah, we'll, we'll take an opportunity. We'll push us through. You get another three or four Republican seats out. of that. In this climate, is that enough? Right? Like, everything I've seen from the polling data, from people I talk to suggest that this is going to be an incredible wave election. Now, we don't know what happens in six months, but you talk way more to the people on the Republican side of the legend than I do. Are they fearful of what's coming, even in the most optimistic redistricting

situation? The realistic people understand they're going to get, they should get smoked. Will they they get smoked, I don't know. Because Sam, when you and I started covering this stuff in like, you know, 06, 08, 10, you were looking at, you walked into a cycle and there were 55 to 60 competitive seats. Right. Right. Like there were, you know, and it was just a different climate. Now there's like 20 to 30, you know. So soon to be 10 to 15. Right. So I don't know what a wave looks like. Does that mean the Democrats are beating deep red Republicans, like Republicans are what we call like R plus 10 seats. So the average Republican wins by 10 coins. Like that would be a true, true wave, right? If people are are losing that you never thought could have a race,

that would be a true massive wave. I do think that if you do snatch four seats, if you're Republicans. If you, if you eliminate a seat in Alabama, you eliminate a seat in Louisiana, you eliminate a seat in South Carolina, Clyburn seat, South Carolina. Tennessee. Go to Tennessee. You eliminate Steve Cohen's seat. Like, you know, that turns a two or three seat majority into a seven seat majority or a six or seven seat majority. Every seat matters. Right. What are the signs you're looking for to know how panicky Republicans are? Gas prices. Do you start seeing? these breaks with Trump? Do people vote against the reconciliation package? Do you see,

do you see more people signing onto Democratic discharge petitions, which is a way to get around your leadership? Do you see people introducing? Do you see a, I would say Brian Fitzpatrick, but he's not a great example because he's Republican for Pennsylvania just keeps winning in a Kamala heresy, but Mike Loller or any of the New York Republicans start introducing bills to say you got to get out of Iraq. You know, I'm not that issue, but like things like that. Do you see or do people go on TV earlier? Do any of those things would be? But listen, you and I know this, right?

People don't really tune in until much later. And much, much later, like Labor Day later, right? Like we're talking. But I actually think that hasn't held. I just think the volume of TV ads and stuff like that are not, I do think people tune in earlier, but not this early. So there's time. All right. Well, we'll be watching.

man and I'll be reading Punchbowl looking for the signs looking for your coverage. Appreciate you finally ending your block. He's blockaded us. Like we've blockaded the straight of our moves. It's only because you're a better golfer than me these days that I that I can't. There's nothing to do. Nothing to do with YouTube, man. Come on.

I know. But it's just every time I look at you, Sam, I get pain that I can't, that I can't play like you anymore. And I just didn't get frustrated and throw things all over the way. That is not true. we'll have to go back out on the course. All right, Jake Sherman from Punchbowl. Everyone should subscribe to his newsletter

as long as you subscribe to our newsletters first. Take care of my man. Appreciate you.