Bulwark Takes - Could Iowa Be The Democrats’ Next Pickup (w. Josh Turek)

Episode Date: August 28, 2025

Iowa is cracking: Democrats are winning surprise races, Trump’s faux populism is backfiring, and health care cuts are fueling backlash. Candidate Josh Turek, a prairie populist with firsthand experience of social safety nets, is taking the fight to Joni Ernst and billionaire-driven politics. Josh Turek for Iowa

Hey guys, it's Lauren Egan here at the bulwark. Today I have Iowa Democratic State rep Josh Turrick here with me. He is a Paralympian and he is now running for U.S. Senate in the state hoping to flip Joni Ernst seat. Josh, thanks for being here. Absolutely. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. Yeah. So I reached out to you because I wanted to chat about this Iowa special election that happened on Tuesday. The Democrat in the race, Caitlin Drey, a state Senate seat. I believe she flipped it by about 10 points. And this is a pretty conservative district that Trump won by about 11 points in 2024. So it's a big deal in part because with her in the Senate now, Iowa Republicans will no longer have a two-thirds majority. So I guess my question for you is, how much do you think this election on Tuesday was a rebuke of Trump and the GOP? Or is it just kind of hard to read into something? of these special election results.

I absolutely believe that this is Iowa and Iowans waking up to the faux populism of Donald Trump. And Joni Ernst, this is not a mistake here that has happened or just a one-off. This is now the fourth special election that we have won now during Donald Trump's terms. And I keep saying over and over and over, I am feeling an amazing energy all across the state. both in the rural areas, in the urban areas. We're getting turnouts that we have not seen. And Iowa is at its essence. I know on the coast, a lot of people see us as deeply red. And we are a state that is masqueraded as more red than what we are. We at our essence are a common sense state. For 30 years, we had Senator Tom Harkin here in Trump's first midterm. We had, we won three of the four congressional

seats, nearly won the fourth. In 2022, we were only 1.5 percent away from having three. three of our six statewide officials being Democrat, and we are feeling energy all across straight, significantly more energy even than we felt in Trump's first midterm. And I really believe that Iowa can be the center of the political universe. And I think that what Caitlin's been able to do up there in the special election, I was up there knocking doors for her. And there was a lot of energy. And again, that was a Trump plus 11 district up there. And lots and lots of people saying, I'm tired of it. I've had it. We need a different direction. And I, I, I think that Iowans are finally viewing us as the common sense individuals and the adults in the room.

And they're tired of the Trump and Joni Arts policies that are just looking out for large corporations in billionaire interest. I want to push back a little bit. Do you think that there is some danger in overstating the importance of these election results in these special races? Because I feel like sometimes Democrats can read too much into this. Special elections, you know, the elector tends to be more educated. It tends to be the people that, you know, are, are so. super engaged, and Democratic voters are often overrepresented in these special races. And I feel like it can be, you know, this trap that the party falls into in a way to sort

of paper over some of its weak spots. I think this definitely happened for Democrats in 2022 during the Biden White House, kind of misreading just how much folks are going to be energized by abortion issues, for example. So how do you think about sort of balancing that? Well, one, I think you can't, you certainly can't understand it is I went up there and I knocked doors and I said to them the day before the election, I said, this is one of these rare moments where we can actually fundamentally alter policy. I mean, this is an amazing win for us because now the Republicans no longer have a supermajority. We can actually stop appointments. And so, I mean, that's really, really important. And I would say, again, that this isn't just a one-off here, that this is four times that we've seen this. with special elections. And I'm feeling this energy not only up in northwest Iowa. I'm from Pottawatomie County. You know, I'm the Democrat actually that on election day, I am the only Democrat to win in Western Iowa in 2022. It was just myself and J.D. Shulton that won in 24. Trump won my county by 20

points. He won both the communities I represent by by 11%. So I come from a very red part of the state in a very red county. We are seeing turnout that we just have not seen. in years and years and years. That's from young people. That's from independence. That's from Republicans. The same. When you go out into the rural communities, that didn't have been out in Harlan, Iowa. And we had standing room only. And there were lots of independence and Republicans that afterwards said, I voted for Trump. I voted for Joni Ernst. But enough with the naked corruption. Enough with what's, you know, like this is just fundamentally wrong, especially things like the big beautiful bill where you're going to cut food assistance and you're going to cut health care

benefits so that you can just make tax breaks to billionaires. That is wrong. And in a state like Iowa, you've got one in five that are on Medicaid, 40% of which are kids. And that's two in five in the rural communities. And they're feeling it too with Trump's chaotic tariffs that's affecting the ag industry here in Iowa. And like I said, Iowa at our essence, we are not a red state. We are a common sense state. And I have been saying it in my term, I've been able to outperform the top of ticket by wide margins living in a red area. The right candidate with the right message and the right work ethic, you can win in any environment. In Iowa right now, I really believe that Iowa, we are going to be the center political universe in 2026. The state is going to look dramatically

different. If you had to sort of pick out one issue that you feel like you are just consistently hearing from voters, like what would it be? Because I think, you know, the national party is sort of trying to figure out right now, like what is the most compelling message that we, can have as a party going into midterm. So is it the big beautiful bill? Like what would you say it is? Well, I think at least here in Iowa, 90% of Iowans have heard what, you know, Joni, that the callousness of, you know, the Marie Antoinette, let them eat cake and let them all die. So I think certainly something like the Big Beautiful Bill, again, is one in five Iowans are on Medicaid out here. And we're looking at 110,000 people losing their health care.

And this is already on a broken and dramatically defunded Medicaid program. already here in Iowa before we're even looking at these cuts. We've got things like 22,000 disabled Iowans that are on wait lists, sometimes as long as seven years. We've already closed 31 of our nursing home and skilled nursing facilities due to lack of reimbursements. We can't get a single person on Medicaid in the state to get dental care because the lack of repress. I mean, could go on and on and on about this. So I would say that it would be affordable, accessible health care. And especially as we're looking at cuts to Medicaid, we already have massive health care deserts here in our rural communities, and this is going to affect our rural

hospitals, and it's going to lead to closures. But I would say beyond that, it would be kitchen table issues, and it's lowering cost, it's a livable wage, raising the minimum wage, affordable housing, certainly, and affordable health care, affordable pharmaceuticals. It's doing something about our water crisis. We've got a massive water crisis here in Iowa, and we're the only state with a growing cancer rate, and that is affecting everyone. And so putting some more funding towards that and what Trump has done with the cuts to the NIH. That's, that's affecting a lot of, it's affecting a lot of individuals here. It's those. It's kitchen table issues. It's prairie populism like my hero Tom Harkin ran on. Yeah, well, I wanted to ask you a little bit about that and your race and

sort of like what your pitch is, because you call yourself a common sense populist and a prairie populist. So explain to me what you mean by that. Prairie populist is someone like my, like my hero, Tom Harkin, father of the American with Disabilities Act, that is going out there and fighting for the middle class, fighting for workers, fighting for small business, fighting for small family farms. It's someone that is looking out for American workers. This is what we've gotten away from. I actually think that Donald Trump accurately addressed that the standard quo is not working for the American people or for the middle class. The problem is with his faux populism, every policy that he's enacting is just making it worse from the Trump tax cuts where 85% go to the 1%

or I think the most recent example and certainly the most relevant example for here in Iowa is the big beautiful bill where we're going to have 110,000 Iowans that are going to lose their health care and lose food assistance and in Iowa when you're talking about SNAP benefits food assistance 90% of the families that are receiving these SNAP benefits are families that have children or families with individuals with disabilities or elderly or veterans. And that's what you're going to cut, just to make tax cuts to billionaires. Where does the common sense? Like, what does that mean to you?

Does it mean that you have to be more in line on like social and cultural issues with the state? Do you think you have, there has to be like a flavor of some, you know, moderateness there in order to win in a state like Iowa? I hear you're saying that it's not as red as we all think that it is. But it's still been a while since a Democrat has won on the presidential or certainly on the Senate level there. Yeah. Well, I mean, we have more Obama-Trump counties than any other state in the union.

We're a state that voted twice for Obama. Again, 30 years, Senator Harkin, it's not that long ago, 2018, Trump's first midterm, we won three of the four congressional seats. And in 2022, like I said, we were only a point a half away. That is very recent. And so I would say that Iowa is common sense. What does that mean? I think that it's on our essence. And again, I represent a very, very red district. And when I'm out knocking doors, I'm knocking to a lot of Republicans and a lot of independence. What I say common sense is not just blind tribalism. It's moving away from party over country mentality. I think what people want, you knock enough doors and you realize that we're not that different. About 85 percent, what we want is we want to have functioning schools and functioning infrastructure and a livable wage and people to be able to afford the housing and their health care. That's what we want. We want safe cities. It's being reasonable and being willing to work across the aisle when it benefits my constituents or when it benefits

Iwans or the middle class because what people are tired of is they're just they're tired of the political games and the D.C. mentality of just party over country. What people want regardless of R or D, red or blue, is they want representatives that are going to go out there and they're going to provide legitimate solutions to their problems and they're going to work for the people. They are going to work for the workers, for the middle class, for Iowans, for the social safety nets that have allowed me to be successful in my life and fight for them. That's what people want. Do you feel like there is a lot of energy behind populism in the Democratic Party right now? because I look at Bernie and AOC, they've been able to draw these massive crowds and really

reds parts of the country. And then you've other candidates who are running in Democratic primaries like Graham Platner, who just announced out in Maine, who really is pitching himself as this populist type of candidate, too. So I'm curious if you see that there's a lot of energy behind that kind of messaging right now. And whether you think that could be a successful model in the midterms and beyond for Democrats. I think without a doubt, again, more than red versus blue, I think what people are realizing is that these policies that are only benefiting billionaires and large multinational corporations, people are feeling it that we're living through a second gilded age and that it's not red versus blue at this point. It's the 1% versus the 99%

and people want someone that's going to, I think it's vitally important. And I've felt this in my race, you know, winning in a very red district. What people want is they want someone someone that understands the issues that people are going through. And right now in Iowa, and all across the country, we have a lot of people that are struggling. And they're struggling to keep food on the table, struggling to keep a roof above their head. And they're not feeling heard. And they're certainly by the policies. They're not being heard, not being addressed, not by the Trump administration, not by what Joni Ernst is doing. And they want someone that understands that. And that's what I'm talking about out here is I've gone through the economic

struggle in my life. And I'm only here because of these social safety events. I'm only here because of great things like what my hero, Tom Harkin, did with the American with Disabilities Act. I'm only here because of vocational rehabilitation or the AEAs out here, free summer lunch programs, things like Medicaid, you know, like, and so I want to ensure that we are not only fighting for social and economic justice, but that we're fighting for the most vulnerable. And that's the elderly, that's the disabled. that's that's for affordable health care for every single person it is fundamentally wrong to live in the richest country on earth and people are having to declare medical bankruptcy or divorce their spouse or go through all of the rigmaro far too often in a district like mine 65% of the

community that I represent lives at or below the poverty line and over and over and over I would hear from people I've changed my job I've I've had to change insurances and now I can no longer afford to take my insulin or afford to take my pharmaceuticals. It is fundamentally wrong in this country for people to have to make a decision. Do I pay my bills or do I take my pills? It's wrong. And I can give you a person. Yeah. It's just recently happened out here in Iowa. Stay with a, you know, only stay with a growing cancer rate. I lost my grandmother to pancreatic cancer. My father had throat cancer and also skin cancer due to his exposure to Agent Orange. Two weeks ago, I found out that my sister has breast cancer.

And she wanted to get a pet scan so that she could find out if the cancer had spread other places. And they said, sorry, you're only at stage two. She's got private insurance. So she's one of the people that thinks, oh, I'm taking care of. I'm good. And they said, sorry, unless it's stage three, we can't do anything for you unless you pay $30,000 out of pocket.

That is fundamentally wrong. Healthcare should be a human right, and especially in this country. I'm so sorry. That's, yeah, insane. I want to talk a little bit about your primary race. J.D. Shulton, who I know is a friend of yours, he dropped out of the race, I think, just last week,

and he endorsed you. And I'm curious what the backstory was there. And how you're thinking about this primary phase and if there is a risk with the primary being too big, if the too many Democrats in the field, there's a lot of candidates running like Zach Walls and Nathan Sage. How do you think about that? Because, you know, you talk to a lot of Democrats.

And they say, Iowa is a key pickup place of Democrats have any chance, really, of taking back the Senate. And so getting the primary, making sure the right candidate comes out of it is critical. So talk to me a little bit about J.D.'s decision and how that all went down and what the thinking was there. Sure. J.D. is a great friend of mine. We had had lots of conversation about this at the Iowa Capitol. And, you know, I went to a baseball game that he was playing at and we had chatted. I think for J.D., it was a recognition of this time, this place, this moment against Joni Ernst in 2026, with the preeminent issues going to be social safety nets and Medicaid and Medicare and Social Security. And he recognized, as I feel as well, that there is no better dichotomy or contrast between Joni Ernst, the national villain, the let them meet cake and let them all die versus the individual with the visible visible.

disabilities that have lived and survived off these social safety nets, fought for them in my non-profit work, in my for-profit work. The reason why I initially ran for the Iowa legislature was because the privatization of Medicaid. And it was showing we were, I was assessing and providing wheelchairs for individuals with muscular dystrophy and Lou Gehrig's disease. And we were showing a thousand percent increase in denial rates and delay rates for absolutely necessary health care or for like power wheelchairs. And when I joined the legislature, I said, said, I don't care what committee you put me on. You have to put me on HHS budget policy because I have to alter this Medicaid system here in Iowa because it is so broken, it's having such

negative impacts on children and individual with disabilities in the elderly, the most vulnerable in society. He is recognizing for this moment, this time, Joni Ernst, with the preeminent issues going to be on health care and social safety nets, that I am the best contrast to that. And I'm grateful for his support. He's a good friend. And I'm hopeful that we're We get J.D. out there as a surrogate talking as often as he can because he's fantastic. How I feel about the primary? I think that it shows a lot of energy here in Iowa. I think it's good that we've got a lot of individuals stepping up to the plate and saying we can take back this state, that Iowa is a common-sense state, and we've got an opportunity but also a responsibility to win all these

elections. We've got an open gubernatorial race, and we've got Rob Sand that's very well-funded and well-organized, we can match at least what we did in Trump's first midterm, winning the first, winning the second, winning the third, and we can win. 90% of Iowans have heard what she says. Iowans realize now they have woken up and they realize that Joni Ernst is not fighting for Iowa or for Iowans for the working class. She is just looking out for D.C. donors and lobbyists and billionaires. And Iowans are tired of that. And for 30 years, we had Senator Harkin and we deserve to once again have the senator from Iowa that is fighting for the people, fighting for the workers, fighting for the middle class, fighting for social and economic justice,

social safety nets. That's what I'm going to do. And I think it's going to be great. I think it's going to make us all sharp, as you said. It's going to be important. We don't want someone coming out of this not being well prepared. I think I am well prepared. I've gone through two very, very difficult races. I'm the only one in this race that's beaten a Republican. I'm winning in a very, very red district. Trump won my county by 20 points. Both of my communities by double digits. I was able to win by six points. I all performed by 14 points. I think I'm well prepared to take on this. And I think my candidacy, my story, my background, my resume, what I've been able to fight for and accomplish in the house and win in tough places shows that I can win out here. But I think

it's valuable. I think we can bring a lot of media attention to this. And we're going to need lots of candidates at every single level to go out and talk at every single nook and cranny and small community all across this state and talk about the issues that we care about is Democrats and progressives because that's how we're going to win. So I think it's good. I want to end just on a quick question about Chuck Schumer.

There have been a few Democratic candidates running in other Senate primaries in other states who have come out and said that they would not support him as leader if they were elected. I'm curious if you've given thought to that. And if you do win this race, would you vote for him in January?

January, what would it be? January 2027, which feels like an eternity away. How would you vote if you were to be in the Senate then? And to be perfectly honest with you, it's not something that I've given any deal of thought too. I'm not putting the cart before the horse on this. What I'm concerned about right now is getting out there and working as hard as I can, meeting with as many Iowans talking with people in my community all around the state and talking about addressing the issues that they're feeling and talking about the kitchen table issues because Iowans we once again deserve to have somebody that is fighting for the people that has genuine understanding and empathy for the plights of those that have not won the genetic lottery. And that's what I'm focused on. I'm focused on

beating Joni Ernst and talking to as many Iowans as I possibly can because we've got an amazing opportunity. I'll worry about 2027 in 2027 if we can pull this off. Fair enough. All right, Josh, thanks for being here and appreciate taking some time. Good luck with everything. Thank you.