Bulwark Takes - GOP in Total Chaos Over “Big, Beautiful Bill”

Episode Date: May 15, 2025

Sam Stein is joined by HuffPost’s Arthur Delaney to break down the infighting among Republicans over Trump’s so-called “big, beautiful” budget bill, highlighting the deep divisions over tax cuts, Medicaid reductions, and whether the plan has any real chance of passing. Join at 9pm ET for a Members Only Conversation with Sam Stein and Jonathan Cohn

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It's been way too long since we've had him back. I've missed him tremendously. I'm sure you have too. The one, the only, Arthur Delaney of HuffPost. Is it still HuffPost? Because you got a new logo and i don't know if you have a new name it's still huffpost right still huffpost slightly different shade of green i noticed um arthur thank you so much for doing this we're going to get into

what appears to be a coming calamity although you never know with these things they always change but at this moment at 4 38 p. Thursday, May 15th, it appears to be a coming calamity for the House Republicans as they consider Donald Trump's big, beautiful bill. It's called the one big, beautiful bill, and it will be the biggest bill ever passed in our country's history. Again, caveats galore. It is a rapidly changing environment. We just don't know where we're going to be in two hours from now. But what is the current state of play

in as simple English as you can give it? So it's not changing that rapidly. What's happening now is that the dynamic within the House among Republicans is coming to a head as they reach do or die moments on their big, beautiful bill. They have always had totally irreconcilable policy priorities from different members of the conference. And they've papered over that by saying, just vote for it. We'll fix it later. Just vote for it. We'll fix it later. Just vote for it. We'll fix it later. And so they've been through a series of procedural votes that got them to this

point, but now they want to pass the bill next week and they can no longer say, we'll fix it later. We'll fix it later. We're coming up on the final version. Now they have a budget committee vote on the first final draft of the bill Friday morning, and they are still saying we'll fix it later because they'll do it. So let's stop there for a second. What are the main areas of disputes policy wise? The two big parts of this are the tax cuts and the spending cuts that partly pay for the tax cuts. And so the right-wingers, people like Chip Roy, want the biggest spending cuts possible. Look, we didn't come here to claim that we're going to reform things and then not do it.

But there's a whole faction of moderate Republicans, including ones who represent districts in Democratic states and that Kamala Harris one, were just like, no, no, we do not accept your steep cuts to Medicaid or to SNAP. Now, I know I say explain this in like very simple English, but I think you're oversimplifying it because you're talking to me like I'm, two-year-old. And I would appreciate a little bit more respect, Arthur. So we're spending cuts, Medicaid, they don't want some of these reforms. And then on the tax side, there's some issues with salt deductions and things like that. So talk about the tax side now. So on the tax side, everyone loves tax cuts, but then there's this separate group that wants this one specific tax cut for state and local.

It's a deduction for what you've paid in your state and local taxes. Right. So if you have really high state taxes, you want a bigger deduction. We're talking about like New York, Jersey, California, basically. Those three states. Yeah. And there are actually a number or handful of Republicans who are from those states who are the most endangered Republicans

who really want to like up the deduction level and they're not getting it. But why aren't they getting it? That's been confusing to me. Why don't I just give it to them? Well, that's the thing. They are getting it. In the draft of the bill they're all looking at,

it goes from a limit of ten thousand dollars in that deduction to 30 with a phase out so that people who are really rich can't claim it and they're just like no we want more what number do they want they won't tell anybody publicly so that it was 40 that number that number has been been floated but no it's it's 30 in the text and they definitely want something higher than that. And so that's what they're fighting about. But they're not the problem now, right? They are the problem now. They're not the problem in the budget committee. I'm talking about the budget committee. Sorry, this is getting really wonky. But we have a vote coming up tonight,

potentially, or Friday. We don't know. And the real problem that Speaker Johnson's facing is not from them. That's going to come down the road. The real problem he's facing now is the conservatives who say you're not cutting enough from this bill. That's right, and a bunch of the right-wingers on the Budget Committee said Thursday afternoon. But doesn't this bill cut a ton? Not really. I mean, yes, one of the largest spending cuts ever, but relative to the tax cuts, they're not even trying to make it deficit neutral.

Because the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, did say that we're looking at, what, 8.7 million or so people who will lose Medicaid? More than 8 million people lose health insurance with some 7 million of those losing Medicaid over 10 years. And it's a trillion dollars in cuts over 10 years to Medicaid and SNAP. And these conservatives say that's not enough because it's phased in too late or just it's not enough, period. Yeah, that's part of it is that one of the biggest cuts to Medicaid is through imposing a new work requirement, which is basically just if you don't do your paperwork to prove you have a job, we kick you off. It's a limit on benefits for people who are unemployed. No offense to you on this one, but we have

Jonathan Cohn on staff. And he knows this better than you. And if you're interested in this, tune in tonight at 9pm for a live emergency briefing with Jonathan Cohn and me. Anyways, keep going. Since you poached Jonathan from us, I've had to learn all this.

So anyway, these guys are mad that the Medicaid work requirement wouldn't start until 2029. Yeah, they want the people kicked off earlier. Right. And it's also, it's like, that's suspicious. You mean you're saving money on paper with that. You're not actually enacting. That is true. There is something valid about that complaint is we're just hiding the pain for a few years yeah the next president could undo it yeah all right let's get rid of this

veggie talk and let's get to the candy how real is this in terms of it could all blow up like because we've been down this let's be real we've been down this road so many times it looks like it's gonna blow up they make some concessions to the conservatives. They get on board. The moderates get pissy, but they don't do anything about it. And then, you know, Victoria Sparks, you know, changes her mind 15 times and eventually says, yeah, I'll vote for it. And like, isn't that just what's going to happen here? That's definitely possible. Like you look, you take, take them at at their word there is no way it can pass but if you if you have a brain and and a memory and you're a sentient being you know that they will all fold except

thomas massey or that at least they all can fold and and to get here on one of the procedural votes all the conservatives said well we won't vote for this. And then they had a meeting with the speaker and I, I guess they might've got Trump on the phone for that. They all marched out and caved together. And, and that's a dynamic that can't come into play yet. Donald Trump, like he winds up on the phone. So you're talking about the earlier vote on the rules to like get us to this place we are in now.

Now we have another vote on the budget that's coming us to this place we are in now now we have another vote on the budget that's coming up and that's just in the committee and they have to get that and then they have to cobble it that's to cobble it all together and then they have to consider it for the full house right so they want to do that next week and uh that that's a toughie that's where the salt guys the medicaid guys they all come in. And then after that, you have the Senate, where a bunch of senators are on both sides. So here's my question for you. Yeah, because this is what happened yesterday, is that Josh Hawley, Ron Johnson even, they said, we're not going to pass this bill.

Like, we're just not going to pass this bill. Does that impact, I mean, you've been on the Hill all day. Has that impacted at all how some of these House Republicans, maybe the moderate ones, think about this? Because in essence they're being asked to take a vote, to go on record saying, sure, I'm fine voting for a bill that will cut Medicaid by 8 or 7.8 million people. Yeah. Knowing that it won't pass because – and in this case because Josh Hawley says there's no way I will stomach a bill that's going to have 7.8 million people lose their Medicaid. Yeah, that's making a problem for Republicans. I talked to Nick Lolota, one of the New York salt guys yesterday, and he said,

I don't want to vote for this thing until it's got Trump's blessing. It's got the Senate's blessing. I don't want to take this pointless vote if I'm not getting the things I'm asking for and then have it blow up anyway. But the House does not have the leverage to get the Senate's blessing on this. And there's no doubt that if they do pass a slightly modified version of what they got right now, if they do pass it in the House, the Senate won't accept it and they'll wind up in a negotiation with them too. I still wouldn't say this thing is doomed just based on how everyone has caved before. What do you make of how the Speaker has managed this process? Definitely a lot of kicking the can down the road, a lot of assurances that things will get fixed eventually.

And eventually you do have to say yes or no to it and but he's not there yet right like there's some more kicking that can be done yeah he's been pretty skillful he's always affable and put together and he describes it together well he's a mr speaker you cannot possibly reconcile the requests of the different corners of your conference and he says right oh yeah well we're just going to turn some dials and find a level that suits everybody. He keeps saying that. And quite frankly, he might be right, but I don't know.

It certainly could tank. And we've seen Republicans in the House particularly expose themselves to massive embarrassment many times in the past few years. It hasn't really happened to Mike Johnson on this scale, but it certainly could. Yeah. That's like a Kevin McCarthy era thing, right?

It's like, Oh no, we really screwed up. And then they like have to go back to the drawing board. Hasn't really happened yet. Kevin McCarthy, you would see him exasperated and get cranky. And Mike Johnson has never seemed like that, at least not to me.

He's always calmly taking questions and giving you a wry smile when you ask about the impossible task he's got. And so far, it's mostly worked. There have been less important votes that have failed or that they've had to yank from the floor. And that's been an embarrassment to people who care about House rule votes, which I don't think any normal person should care. But he's barreling for it as if this will be fine, even if they are saying, well, yeah, we might have to postpone that budget vote. And if they did that, it could delay their goal of passing the whole thing by Memorial Day.

But I still wouldn't. That's crazy. I'm still skeptical that it would totally fail. Yeah, Memorial Day is tight, dude. That's pretty crazy. All right, Arthur Delaney, get back to work, man. What are you doing talking to me? You should be roaming the halls, getting the quotes.

I was just roaming. I was just roaming. Go back and roam. I stopped roaming for two seconds. You told me to roam. Oh, man, it's such a pleasure having you on. Why don't we do this more regularly? I don't know. just from roaming for two seconds. Oh man. It's such a pleasure having you on. Why don't we do this more regularly?

I don't know. Cause he, cause you got cone. I guess I got cone. I approached a good one. Didn't I? All right, Arthur.

Thanks so much, buddy. Appreciate it. All right. Take care.