Bulwark Takes - Live Reaction: Trump’s Bill Passes, but at What Cost for the GOP?

Episode Date: July 1, 2025

Sarah Longwell, Jonathan V. Last, and Jonathan Cohn were live when the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” passed the Senate. Watch their live reaction and commentary on the razor-thin margin, the implications for “moderate” Republicans in the Senate, and how this bill may shape the country’s finances and politics for years to come.

Hey guys, me Sam Stein, managing editor at The Bullwork. A little while ago, the Senate passed Donald Trump's big beautiful bill by the skin of its teeth 50-50 with JD Vance casting the tie breaking vote. We were recording live during that, JVL, Sarah and Jonathan Cohn. What you're about to watch is that recording. We hope you enjoy and make sure to subscribe to our sub stack and our YouTube. Thanks. The bill is passed. It just passed. Do you guys want to do you want to hear the audio? Do you care enough to hear that? Did Murkowski voted for it? She did. What was the actual vote? Did JD Vance have to tie, break the tie? 50-50. So who who who got off the hook and voted against it, Jonathan? Collins, Tillis, and Paul.

voted against it, Jonathan? Collins, Tillis, and Paul. OK. Well, there you go. That's interesting. Have we ever had, I wonder, somebody will have to do this, just an actual headcount of bills passed in a Congress. This is going to wind up as one of the least productive Congresses, certainly in modern history,

normally Congress at least passes a whole bunch of meaningless like, you know, sense of the Congress type bills. I think they had passed like five or seven pieces of legislation leading up to this and there's this. And I suspect we'll get almost nothing before the midterm elections, which are still a year and a half out.

before the midterm elections, which are still a year and a half out. Does this feel at all to you guys, like an empire sort of fraying at the seams? Again, if this were a scene in a history book, right, that you're reading about, like, whatever the given is about the decline and fall of the American empire, and they talk about how, right, that you're reading about like whatever the given is about the decline and fall of the American empire. And they talked about how, yeah, they're just scribbling notes back and forth on a piece of paper on a napkin in the chamber trying to get through this bill that

nobody had read that lards on another $3 trillion in debt for the only thing they could pass. trillion dollars in debt and for the only thing they could pass. That is our, you know, potted view of how dysfunctional the American democracy had become and why it fell. Like it would fit, wouldn't it, as an anecdote? No, Sarah, you're giving me your grimace. Well, you just always have to be so maximalist. Like like they pass the crappy bill in the most like janky way and it's an embarrassment and um but like the end of an empire i don't know that i think this bill is that thing i'm not saying that it is i'm not saying this i'm just saying doesn't this feel like a scene from that right like this is this is how democracies that can no longer function. This is how they operate in the waning days.

I mean, I don't know, they still look, I think that reconciliation is really bad. It's also how we've passed a lot of things like they did, they did Biden's thing, the reconciliation, his build back better. This is a dysfunction of trying to do an end run around the filibuster. It is dysfunction, to be sure, but they did just get a vote and they did it in the horse trading way that they do it. It's more chaotic. It's with less deliberative debate for the American people like we did with the ACA. Like there's all way, like this is not me defending it whatsoever.

I just, we're still, they're still passing laws. Like it's, it's like on the slope down, but it's not the end point. Like I think there's, I don't think we're in the pitch black yet. I don't know, but Jonathan can tell, say what he thinks. Yeah. I mean, I saw, I'm, you know, I'm less bothered by the reconciliation part. I'm a long, I'm a lifelong hater of the filibuster and think the Senate should be a majority role. Well then just get rid of the filibuster instead of that. Yeah. Sorry, go ahead. For sure. For sure. For sure. And sure. And that's what I would do. I mean, this whole reconciliation,

let's just get rid of it for once and for all and have it be a majority chamber. The part about that it gets to me, I mean, it's just so obvious what's going on here, which is this thing is unpopular. We're just going to ram it through as fast as we can. We're not even going to show it to people. We're voting on bills of enormous consequence

five days after the language. Or in this case, we got the language. I popped in my social media feed, I think 45 seconds before the final vote. And it's just very clear, the MO here is we can't let people know what's in this. We can't let people focus on what's in this. So we're just going to throw it all together, negotiate it behind closed doors, and then spring it on people and see if we can ram it through, which is this is the antithesis of deliberate democracy. So in that sense, I do think it's sort of a clip of a declining democracy. And also just substantively, so much of this

feels so just needlessly self-destructive. I mean, forget about the sort of intelligence, the sort of serious policy debates. Government should be bigger, should be smaller. I mean, things like cutting off manufacturing, cutting off subsidies for factories that are being built. That is like our best chance to compete with China, for example, on the future of energy.

And just cutting that out of spite, I mean, that to me, I mean, I think of any single, I get worked up about the healthcare stuff, but I look 20 years down the road, 30 years down the road, and when we're not energy, we're totally behind and dependent on other countries for all this new technology and energy that we can't do because we just undercut it when we had a chance to catch up.

I mean, that to me is a sign of a kind of empire and decline. Yeah, we also, you know, we do have Q2 economic data coming down the pipe at us pretty soon. Pretty interesting to see if we get a second straight quarter of contraction, which would put us in an official recession, first like manmade recession, maybe ever. Sarah, can I ask you to put on your strategist hat? Yeah.

And if I were the Democratic Party and I came to you and I said, Sarah, tell me how to attack this thing and how to make them pay, what would you tell me how to attack this thing and how to make them pay. What would you tell me? Who would you say to target and how would you tell me to attack? Okay. Well, this is why this is like the simplest down the middle pitch is they cut benefits for you to give tax cuts to rich people.

And this is a thing that voters understand and that Trump doesn't really have a good response. That is exactly what they've done. So I like tax cuts. I don't like tons and tons of taxes. But just as an objective matter, what they have done is to give, these are not tax cuts for low income people or tax cuts, it is tax cuts for wealthy people.

And, and they are paying for it on the backs of the poorest people. And I think you can ride that particular message all day long with Trump voters. And JBL to your point about, do they not blame Trump and instead blame their local Republican? Maybe. I mean, the ads are certainly going to say, you know, ex-Republican congressmen and senator voted for it. So, I mean, the one person, it's interesting, you know, Tillis stepping down, one of the things that whoever replaces him will have going for them is that they didn't vote for this because they weren't in the chamber. Right. So they can say they liked it and they love Trump, but they don't actually have the vote hanging around them.

And can I just say I'm like obsessed, just like John is obsessed with like the health care aspects of this, I'm obsessed with the moderate Republican aspect of this. So basically Susan Collins is up, Lisa Murkowski is not. And so whatever deal just went into place was them saying, we're gonna let Collins off the hook because she won't be able to defend this when she's running, but Murkowski isn't up again. She just won in 2024. And so they're making her or not making her because you know what, they can't make her she chooses she chose this. I mean, they did all the things they could to buy her off. And I, I will. I'm trying not to like be an insane person on this live cast.

I couldn't be angrier at Lisa Murkowski and I mean like personally angry. Welcome to my world. Give in to the hate young Jedi. It's not hate. It is it is like the deepest of disappointment because here's the thing. Like if you're if you're murkowski You have fashioned yourself all this time as like a sensible person Uh, and and look and she's good at bringing stuff home for her state and that's okay Like you should be responsive to your constituents

but not at the expense of the entire country and The fact that she has not of the entire country. And the fact that she has not stood up in this moment, like these are like life-defining moments for people. You know, I bet John McCain never once regretted his thumbs down. And Lisa Murkowski, I think will regret this because she knows it's a bad bill.

And she knows what she did was take a payoff for herself. And it is a it is just an it's a really sickening thing to watch. And this is a woman who was just a few weeks ago crying about how we know what a scary time it is to be elected because there are all these people out to who want to do violence because you know, which people is it? Is it the trans folks out to do violence against Lisa Murkowski?

I don't think so. It's Republican voters, but that's okay. I have a question though. What do you guys think? Do you think this is enough to save Susan Collins? Again, is she going to get it both ways? Is she going to get it from a MAGA primary vote, primary challenge and then a quality Democrat?

Or do you think she avoids the primary challenge? I bet they, that's what they gave. I bet they, I bet, I bet they, um, well, I don't know. I mean, my guess is just like, there was some meeting, like I assume there was a meeting with Thune, My guess is just like there was some meeting like I assumed there was a meeting with Thune Like that they horse traded with the moderates and were like you three like tillis that tillis is, you know retiring now So he can vote no on it. Uh Rand actually I think is principled opposition and I think for political reasons they let Her go and then they put all the force onto murkowski. Uh, is she get to have it both ways a little bit? A little bit? I think unless Trump calls for a primary against her because she

voted no, but my guess is Thune has like greased the way on that. I don't know, John, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, I don't know Maine politics well enough to know the sort of, I know a little bit about Maine politics. I mean, I would be, if I were Collins, I would be, I don't know, I feel like she's in danger even with this vote. I mean, maybe this vote helps her, but isn't she still in danger of getting the sort of stink of Trump on her and just this, you know, being

tied to him in the year that could be really, really bad for the Republicans. I think one thing I suspect a lot of the Republicans are telling themselves, well, these cuts won't hit for a while. People won't see them. It'll be a slow burn. And I think this is one of the places where I suspect they're rushing the bill through is gonna come back to haunt them

because some of this stuff is gonna hit, the ACA stuff is gonna hit next year. People are gonna see higher premiums the way things are going. And take it from the Democrats from 2014 and 13, how that plays. And that is going to I think that would that will hurt. Some of this will be there. It'll be fresh in people's minds. So I think you're looking at a bad year for the Republicans.

So for Collins, I mean, that that to me, I mean, and Maine is a kind of whatever purple state, right? I mean, it's a weirdly purple state, but it's a purple state. So I imagine this helps her a little bit, but I don't know. I also think a lot of this gets shaped and driven in, the world is not Twitter, the world is not the online activists, but online activists do tend to play,

I think an outsized role in shaping the debate. And I think people are gonna call her to account for other things she's done to enable Trump. And I think that hurts going to call her to account for other things she's done to enable Trump. And I think that hurts her. But, you know, who knows. All right. Last, last big question for you, Sarah. You are, as am I, somewhat obsessed with the idea of driving down Trump's numbers because everything becomes harder for him the more unpopular he is. Will he be able to duck this? Or is there a way to stick this to him?

There's of course a way to stick it to him. And it is a matter of- Don't say it like it's so obvious. It's, you know- Well, you know, I got to tell you, so I have been watching the ads on cable news right now. They are all from Republicans or it is all pro-Trump stuff supporting the bill talking about the good stuff that's in it. I'm seeing very little opposition

spend against this except for like maybe some like industry specific stuff but that's all like targeted at the elites. Democrats, this is where, like, you have to stick it to Trump. Like, it doesn't always just organically happen. It's about Trump is going to say the whole time, we did some amazing things. And you know what? Look, I got it done. Big win for me. I got it done. Big win for me. And like, they got to go through this bill. They got to go through the bill and take out

all the worst stuff and put it in ads and hang it on them all day long. And they've got to hammer the red places, the places where they're going to say, yeah, they got to go to these voters. This is not a base turnout thing. This is a- And it's not a swing voter thing, because the swing voters are affluent

and are glad for their tax cuts. Yes. So this is, again, this is what I was really going to try to drive out with you. Is it the case that if you were advising Democrats, you would say, Hey, you should spend $100 million doing ads on Fox and NewsNation and OAN because those are the people you can sour on Trump. Now, I'm not sure I would, I would give those guys exactly my money. You could just use YouTube. Just use YouTube, just do digital advertising and geolocate for all of the rural areas that are about to, because this is what the Republicans are going to do.

They're going to be like, look at all the hospital money that we got to try to buy you guys off from the fact that millions of people in your state are going to lose Medicaid and access to healthcare. Go right at that stuff. But those aren't the only things that are going to be horrible for people in this bill. There's so much in this bill and Democrats, you know, because they did it through reconciliation and unlike the ACA where there was all this time to debate all the various things, that was what led to death panels and people like going back and forth on like the specifics.

Voters won't know what's in this unless somebody tells them. And they won't know how it's going to hurt them, potentially, unless somebody tells them. And so like that's the thing. And for Democrats, I think who have been searching and unsure and where's their offense, like this is it. This is it. Go on offense on this. Between this and the Trump session, again, like the indicators don't look great for Q2. If you just look at like container ship traffic

and stuff like that, I do think, I mean, it is possible that growth will be positive, but if so, it'll be very, very small. It's also possible it's gonna be negative. It could be in an actual recession by, you know, August. It seems like... We'll see. He keeps tacoing on the tariffs. So... Yeah. I guess I... I think that was true when he was sticking to the tariffs, but now that he's not and he's just

in the... Well, they remain still quite high though, right? You know, it's like, oh, they're only 30%. Right. And 30% is still a lot more than what the 4% average it was before. Yeah. I, he is weirdly good at having it both ways with his base. There was, I put in today's newsletter story from Mississippi about a foreign national from Scandinavia who has been arrested by ICE and sent off to a detention center

in Louisiana. He's a big MAGA fan, loves Trump. Do you know who he blames for his arrest, Sarah? Democrats? Joe Biden. Joe Biden. Sure. It's all Joe Biden's fault.

I just thought, I don't know, man. How do you fight that? But like what? Well, you don't fight it with that guy. That guy's going to say, I mean, aren't there? I mean, that guy's not I mean, that guy's politically that guy's lost, right? I mean, he sort of you write him off. I mean, you don't write him off as a person, but politically, you know, not somebody gained.

But I do feel I mean, I feel like there are people still persuaded. I mean, you don't need that. Right a person, but politically, you know, not somebody you gain. But I do feel, I mean, I feel like there are people still persuaded. I mean, you don't need that, right? I mean, Sarah, you tell me, but I mean, I feel like there's enough of an audience out there that is open to some of these arguments and especially on healthcare. And the other thing I think, I mean, I am not an ad. The last person in the world should be sort of drawing up ads and slogans. Ask anyone who's worked with me on a headline at the Bulwark. But it seems to me, there are ample opportunities here to run ads, digital ads, if not on the networks. You don't

even have to have a politician in them. You just put a real person on them. I remember that, you remember that Mitt Romney ad that was so devastating in 2012, and a lot of people thought it was unfair. But what made it devastating was you heard from the person who had this story to tell and there's going to be there are a million of those stories to tell. There are going to be a million stories to tell. I just feel like that can break through to people sometimes, maybe, maybe not. Sarah, if only we knew someone who could collect stories of people who have become disillusioned with Trump and get them out into the world. Can you find someone to do that for us, please guys? This is why we've launched home of the brave

Home of the brave is a place where we are collecting stories of the negative personal consequences of trump's policies There's going to be a lot of new negative personal consequences as a result of this bill So go to of the brave.org and send my team your story and they are going to help Uh, make sure that people hear it so that people understand that this is hurting real people. That was not a setup by the way. That was just- No, it wasn't.

That came about organically. Yeah. My team would have been mad if I had whiffed on that because- I was playing the long game, setting that up. Yeah. Thank you. I knew where I was going the whole time. Professional transitions.

Guys, do you have any final thoughts before we get out of here? Will we get any more legislation? Or is this Congress just done? Like they're all set. Should we expect any defections? I mean, this is, we were literally one week ago, Sarah, you, Tim and I were doing fantasy politics of like, I mean, why couldn't Lisa Murkowski just become an independent with

Susan Collins? Well, it turns out now. Like, well, that is off the table now. Like voting for this is there's no there's no more West Wing fantasy politics about Lisa Murkowski. Like, and basically, Tim was talking about this earlier. What she, what we thought she was, right? Not me. Not me. Me. Me. I've been, I've been an anti-Murkowskiite for years.

You and I have fought about this going back. Yeah. Yeah, I, well, there's just, there's no point to her anymore. Um, and, uh, you know, that this is just the thing, like, I know it's a lot of people who spent a lot of money so that there could be ranked choice voting in Alaska because they thought it would help somebody like Murkowski not lose to Sarah Palin, right? And it did, I think, um, I don't know if Murkowski would have won that primary

outright without ranked choice voting. I'm not sure. Here's what I do um, I don't know if murkowski would have won that primary outright without rank choice voting I'm not sure here's what I do know I know what's the difference between having lisa murkowski and sarah palin at this point Like the thing about having sarah palin Is that it would at least be a more honest expression of who this party is Yeah, I don't, and yet, weirdly, I'm almost willing to take the other side of this because having a Sarah Palin type could create more damage.

Like the votes would be the same, but the votes are the least important. I have to believe that's not true. The votes are only part of what they can do. I think having somebody who, but on the other hand, there's the opportunity cost, as you say, which like provides respectable cover. Yes.

Like the problem here is that there's a bunch of people being like, well, the bill can't be that bad. Murkowski voted for it. She's using her credibility as a moderate and conferring it on this bill. Which is exactly what Cassidy did with RFK. And that, and now, and he should be humiliated about this all day long. And yet he won't. No shame, no shame and no spite. We were talking about this yesterday. It's weird

that none of these people feel spite like Tillis is not just going to go scorched earth on his way out the door, he's not going to start caucusing with Democrats. Cassidy's not ashamed, the RFK thing. He won't even publicly criticize RFK. He'll like, I don't want to characterize our conversation. No wonder these guys keep losing. They're a bunch of losers. They're really weak. Trump had them pegged from the start.

Yeah. All right, Jonathan Cohn, Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark. It's been great being here at, you know, scenes from the end of a democracy with you. I can't wait to keep doing it on this channel multiple times a day, every day for the next three and a half years, at least, maybe longer.

Hit subscribe and follow us. And if you're not reading us, go over to thebullwork.com, sign up, get my newsletter at least. It's very good. Many people are saying it's one of the best daily newsletters that comes out at 12.30 in all of America. So there it is. Barry, you can take us off.

Sarah, best friend, it was good seeing you yesterday. Jonathan Cohn, great to be with you, buddy. Good luck, America.