Bulwark Takes - MAGA Pollster Thinks Texas, Ohio and Even KANSAS Could Turn Blue (w/ Rich Baris)

Episode Date: September 3, 2026

MAGA pollster Rich Baris joins Tim Miller to explain why Republicans may be underestimating just how competitive the 2026 Senate map could become. Baris says that Michigan and Georgia are effectively... locks for Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Jon Ossoff. He also sees Democratic opportunities in states Republicans have long considered safe—including Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, Texas, and Ohio.Tim and Rich also talk about why Republican messaging about “socialism” is missing the point. Voters are far more worried about the cost of living, paying their bills, and affording everyday life than they are about scary ideological labels. Rich says it's clear that Trump is betraying the coalition that put him back in the White House. The war, affordability, immigration, and social-media trolling are all alienating voters who once found his approach entertaining and effective.For a limited time, Tempo is offering our listeners 60% off your first box! Go to https://TempoMeals.com/BulwarkTakes

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, everybody, welcome to Bullwork Takes. I'm Tim Miller. We've got a fun one for you here. He is the director of Big Data Poll, host of Inside the Numbers with the People's Pundit and author of a forthcoming book, Burn It Down, What the Polls say young Americans really want. It's Rich Barris. And Rich, I need to, you know, you're on a, you're on a Lib show now. So we're going to have to do a trigger warning. Okay, we've got to do a trigger warning. Rich, is it MAGA? You're like a MAGA true belief, like a pure MAGA, not like one of those Republicans that's pretending. to be MacG. You know, I think that's somewhat fair. You know, I think it's, it would be fair to and by the way, thank you for having me on, Tim. I really, I'm looking forward to this. And back at you. It's hard for me to get Magus to come on. So I appreciate you doing it, genuinely. That's sad. You know, I was saying before, you know, that I am old enough to remember when we used to talk to each other. I'm going to be 45. I'm not, I'm not a big fan of the environment
Starting point is 00:00:52 where we suddenly don't. But I think it's fair to say that as a pollster, people changed my views. over the years. So I think I got a little bit more defensive, you know, I think that's totally fair to say of the people that we interview and the people that came to even get me to remember what side of the tracks I came from. Yeah. Well, you, as part of your work, you correctly forecast that Trump would get 306 electoral votes in 2016. 2024, your state polling projected Trump would win with 312 electoral votes. PTSD for most of our viewers on that, but those two things did come to pass. This time, I DMs you
Starting point is 00:01:33 because you're bearish. I've got bearish, bearis was my headline for this on the MAGA chances and Republican chances. What do you assess as different that's happening this time versus 16 and 24 where you thought Republicans are going to do well?
Starting point is 00:01:48 Look, and I know that MAGA's going to hate me saying this, but what MAGA has become or the issues that they're champion, Tim, are not the issues that that delivered those electoral college wins to to president trump and i i think if we're having an honest discussion you know you could be a supporter of the president and you can still be honest or you know i just don't see what sycophon see how that helps anybody i mean ultimately it's
Starting point is 00:02:15 my job to convey what people are telling me and they wanted the old trump back you know trump one one 0 was was really volatile as far as the media cycle and there was a lot of boat rocking going on. Some of it was his fault. Some of it wasn't. You know, I mean, he met with a lot of pushback. Mostly his fault. A lot of the Twitter accounts, right? People said back then that, you know, I like what he's doing.
Starting point is 00:02:40 I just wish you wouldn't be on Twitter. By the time we get to 24, I think so much has happened with the COVID lockdowns, which even though they started under him, he became a quick critic of it. And then the Biden administration, what had transpired. Trump was big on anti-war. He was always trying to meet with Putin and settle things and kind of toned down. Russophobia, if you want to call it, and whatever you want to call it in this country.
Starting point is 00:03:07 And I don't want to say normalize relations with Russia, but certainly try to do what even Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama did with the big reset button during the Obama administration. At the time, it wasn't as appreciated. And then by the time we get to 24, it really did, you know, come to pass. It's just a people felt like, you know what, I think we might have had it a little bit better than we thought. Can we go back and have a redo? But this administration has not been a redo of 1.0 in many ways. Yeah, let's talk about those ways because I think maybe the way you assess it is different from, you know, what you might hear on this channel most often.
Starting point is 00:03:43 So, like, what are the ways in which you think he has either betrayed or strayed from, You know, kind of his campaign promises in 16. Well, I think a lot of this is about optics, which is why we started the White House Focus tracker and the poll that we do, we release every month because it just came from an idea of what people were telling us during the interviews. And a common theme that just kept coming up over and over again. And you could see it. If you don't read the transcripts, the interviews, you can see in the word clouds, clear as day.
Starting point is 00:04:12 They thought that the first Trump administration was much more focused on domestic policy. and Americans aren't, you know, they're not stupid. They know that the president's job has a lot. It's in the name. They're America first, you know? Yeah. Look, I mean, I feel like I have a hard time speaking to some people on the right who are being intellectually dishonest with themselves.
Starting point is 00:04:34 I mean, it's in the name, guys. I mean, you can go and bring up an Oprah interview from the 1980s when I was probably five. And most of those millennial men who switched and voted for Donald Trump in 24, and they really propelled him in many ways. They might not even remember that interview when he said, I would be tougher with Iran or some obscure thing about Iran not being able to have a nuclear weapon. This is a man, this is a candidate and two-time president who undecided. This is really not despicable. He ran against no new wars in the Middle East. And I think the first three to five months,
Starting point is 00:05:09 and our polling showed it, the first three to five months, he was riding high and people loved what he was doing, especially younger people, which is what the book is all about. Republicans are going to run out of a coalition soon if they don't build on what he started to build in 24. And a lot of those gains are squandered because of the direction they took, Tim. I mean, they decided by spring, certainly by summer, before Charlie was was killed to conduct Operation Midnight Hammer. And that was kind of like a PTSD moment for a huge part of Trump's coalition. They just thought, here we go again. No, please.
Starting point is 00:05:47 And they gave him a lot of grace. And they waited and waited and waited, but he never took that pivot back to the domestic. There's been no manufacturing tours the way we saw in the first Trump administration. It just seemed like he was able to juggle the two in the first administration differently. And he's been consumed by foreign policy since Operation Midnight Hammer. I mean, literally just today, right before we started this interview, Trump sent out a bleat. That's what I call the truth, social posts. I can't call them truth.
Starting point is 00:06:13 So, you know, he sent out a bleat saying maybe we should rename it the straight of Trump. And it's like this is one of these things where I don't know, man, you tell me, but it feels to me like if in 2019, 2018 he had done one of his like kind of cheeky trolly Trump things about some foreign country and how we're going to rename it after America, a lot of the base would have laughed and said that's a troll. Like in this context, it's like straight of Trump. Like, what are you talking about? Like, why do you care so much about that?
Starting point is 00:06:40 How did you, like the straight of everything was fine. he started this war. I don't think you would mind me saying. I just showed the chairman in Bucks a response, the transcript response from a 30-year-old male that we interviewed in Bucks County. This is a low propensity voter, but this is exactly the kind of guy. He's the reason Donald Trump won Bucks, one Northampton. You know, they're a little bit different, obviously demographically in Erie County. But so many areas where he did better than, um,
Starting point is 00:07:12 than the Senate candidate did. McCormick, you know, he won. He ultimately pulled it off. But it was kind of for Pennsylvania for a Republican. It was kind of a comfortable win for Donald Trump. And this is the guy who did it. And Tim, it was during the time when, do you remember when he sent out, and they wound up taking it down, but he sent out the truth post about,
Starting point is 00:07:32 everyone thought he claimed he was like, he didn't know, I thought it was a doctor and I was helping people. Do you remember that post? Yeah, sure. Yeah. And it became, yeah. Yeah. where clearly he was equating himself to the Messiah.
Starting point is 00:07:45 That gentleman just basically said, very calm, very collected. He said, you know, I'm just over this. It was cute at one point. It was cute and funny when I thought he was doing something for me and I thought he cared still. It's not cute anymore. And that's really what it comes down to.
Starting point is 00:08:03 When you're helping people or people at least think that you care about their needs and you're addressing their needs, then they'll tolerate a lot. But when they feel like you've kind of gone off on, you know, the wrong side of the path here, it's just not cute anymore. It gets old. This message is brought to you by Tempo Meals. Now, during the week, my schedule is pretty non-stop.
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Starting point is 00:09:34 You did one tweet, I noticed about the betrayal of the base. I'm going to kind of run through the map here in a second, but on an issue that, uh, let's just say people wouldn't have counted this on the list, um, among, you know, my friends when I'm on Nicole Wallace's show, but it's, it's interesting to hear the perspective of people with the base and one of the, one of the, one of the, you might not use a word betrayal. One of the things that you, you talk about how people were let down about is that, you know, you have Milo getting detained this week. You have the Tate brothers getting detained, um, but not Fauci. Uh, and I do wonder like where, like how the kind of base feels about that stuff. Like, it's not just kind of the big policy issues where kind of
Starting point is 00:10:11 mega voters and Democratic voters aren't happy with the war. Like, there are some particular issues where, like, the MAGA voters wanted follow through on that he's not doing. Could you just talk about those kind of MAGA world issues? You know, the point I was making is not only that Milo or the tape, others are so beloved by everybody who voted for Donald Trump. It's just that they're very symbolic, and especially on this issue of immigration, they're very symbolic of where I feel like this is a great example of where things. have gone wrong in the minds of many people. Milo should have went to his hearing, right?
Starting point is 00:10:43 I mean, let's call it what it is. But Milo also was what, you know, is referred to on that side as like, O.G. MAGA. This was a guy, no matter what his persuasion was, which was not typical of a Republican, a follower of a Republican candidate, that kind of exactly was the point about Donald Trump and MAGA, where it was not the Orthodox Republican voting coalition. It was something different. Milo was certainly part of that. And he became a critic of the president, this administration, because of the war and other things, but immigration among them. So it seems to me, you know, the DHS, which was formed after 9-11 to protect us, you know, if you would ask a typical Republican or Trump voter, which I think we had to draw a distinction there, if you were to ask them, you know, about DHS, they would say, sure, they let over tens of millions of illegal immigrants and didn't do their job. God knows how many terrorists. And they're deporting Milo.
Starting point is 00:11:39 And I mean, it's just like the whole thing. It's just completely a joke. And they're actually taking a victory lap about it on social media, whereas they wanted him to continue to push in Minnesota, right? And when there was a lot of media blowback, they feel like the president kind of backed off, kind of gave in. And everyone kind of smells an amnesty around the corner with some of the things that they're seeing, you know, support for Maria Salazar, right?
Starting point is 00:12:03 I mean, so I try to tell people. This is not my position at all. And it's interesting, in one of the focus groups we ran in Florida. Like, it's one of those things just to show you. This is kind of like a little bit of the, you know, magas from Mars. The, you know, pro-democracy coalition is from Venus side of this. Or like a guy in the focus group that was like, I'm pissed about there not being enough deportations. Like this could not be further from my view.
Starting point is 00:12:25 Like the Mila thing I kind of laughed at, I was like there are a million other more sympathetic people that I would point to. But like that said, it is, it's interesting. Like even in that area, which you would think would be a strength for him right now, there's like a little bit of consternation. There is. Within the magnet world. I'm looking at his numbers on trust to handle. Do you approve or disapprove of Trump on immigration?
Starting point is 00:12:47 Remember in the first administration, no matter how low his overall approval fell, he always did well on the economy. He always did well on immigration. And these are issues where he is underwater now. And I mean, that to me just screams volumes and where is it coming from? Because I've done these focus groups too. I know exactly what you're talking about. And I actually had to do an entire, we did multiple states, and the idea was what kind of immigration proposal would you even be able to pass?
Starting point is 00:13:16 And sorry for the dog. Would you be able to pass without ticking off about a quarter to maybe 33% of MAGA? Is it even possible? Could you include some kind of riders involved in that? And there's basically a chunk of them that will never be happy no matter what. You just can't, there's nothing is going to work, especially if you're talking about. a pathway to citizenship for those who came under Biden's administration. They feel like it's just a deal breaker and that's it.
Starting point is 00:13:43 But, I mean, even the more moderate people were he couldn't win either way because he wasn't clear on why he was deporting some of these people. And these were simple fixes that the White House could have addressed. Here's what gets you on the deportation list, right? So you have Trump voters who are somewhat sympathetic still. They think the law should be followed, but they don't want, you know, Gestapo is running around in masks ripping people out of the country. That was a huge problem. He had to just take the mask off to him and explain to people why he was doing it more. Instead, you know, he feel people,
Starting point is 00:14:15 a lot of his, he ticked off both sides because he didn't answer those questions for the more moderate part of his voting coalition. And he angered the more, you know, hard line, you know, the core of MAGA. And I'm going to use the word hardline. Yeah, he, he angered part of the base by not following through. So he took, he tried to take that tepid, I think I'll try to, you know, slide in between these two and it just didn't work. And now we were out tweeting about my love. Are there Epstein concerns still in that when you talk to MAGA voters or kind of not really? You know, I just think that set the tone.
Starting point is 00:14:47 I, look, they weaponized the Epstein issue. You know, so if they have anybody to blame for this, it's themselves. Maybe the president. And they put cash in charge of the FBI after he was making, you know, the Epstein black book, like his whole personal brand, you know. And Dan Bonino is right-hand man who built an entire rumble. show saying don't let go of this issue do not let go of this issue by the way dan apparently loves to attack me now look even though even though then it's been reported welcome to the club rich he knew
Starting point is 00:15:18 he knew i was right so privately he was saying no this is going to hurt us badly but publicly he didn't have the spine to say it it just it's this is the problem you have to pick aside and stick on that side and be authentic to people otherwise you just come across as in authentic voters are busy they're not stupid. So they smell something here that they don't like. And I've, I've told the left this for years. They didn't listen. Now the right's not listening either. I think the Epstein issue set the tone. And we don't hear about it like we used to, but we hear about it as it really did set a narrative, which we've given a name to. It's like the Epstein class narrative that, that Democratic candidates like Gerard Brown or just bludgeoning John Eustead with. It's brilliant. It's smart. John
Starting point is 00:16:04 Mossov has been incredibly articulate with this narrative. You don't have to get into the details. It just sets the tone. You understand that it upset people. It was an issue that upset people because it was symbolic of a ruling class that they feel like, doesn't play by the same rules, gets ahead at their expense, and is never held accountable when they're in trouble. So they walked right into their own trap. I've never seen anything like it. And it just set the tone from that point forward. I want to just do the map real quick, but, but you've been on polling misses. One of the things, you know, the bedwetters on the Democratic side, one of the things that they're concerned about and you look at the midterms, like, you know,
Starting point is 00:16:43 things seem to be going pretty well, but there've been some polling misses. There have been like times where MAGA voters haven't been captured, times where Democrats were doing better in the summer and then in the fall not as good. Like what, how do you kind of assess that? Like, do you think that's still happening? Why was that happening? Yeah, I would just point out that, you know, and there's a first time for everything, so knock on wood here. But we, you know, we haven't had these issues, which is why, you know, I'm sitting here. You're being your poster. You're meaning, yeah, are the, the body of work that we've put out.
Starting point is 00:17:16 I think we've done, you know, we've done, we've been, we've performed better than most others. And when Republicans have been in trouble, they, you know, we showed them in trouble. When, when they were doing better than the media and university poll suggested, that's where we were. I think that there's valid reasons for people on the left to be concerned about misses. There are. And if I was in that boat, I would constantly be almost neurotic about whether MAGA voters would come out and spoil my night again. But at the same time, they're, you know, looking at the rights argument, which is that, well, we've been understated. There's been a summer lull.
Starting point is 00:17:54 That's their argument right now. There's always been this summer lull. The truth is, somebody like Elliot Morris, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is actually right that the truth is that we're cherry picking cycles to make our arguments work instead of looking about the totality of the data set and the truth is that the uh out of power party is usually the one who tends to gain a few points from this point until november so uh democrats in 18 they they were they were only a few points ahead in our august polling and then they wind it to almost seven they wound up winning by eight um in 22 Republicans were at 1.2 i believe in
Starting point is 00:18:31 our August poll and then they got to about four. And, you know, I think, too, we have to remember that Trump was on the ballot in some of these cycles. Patrick Rafini's analysis wasn't wrong. I just think that we have to separate. There's a Republican coalition for Trump. And then there's, if you even want to call it a Republican coalition, when he's not on the ballot. And it's a very big difference. That's look at the map. You're saying something I've been saying. So we'll start there. It's always nice to have agreement that for all of the conversation and discussion about the Michigan Senate race and how much the Republican establishment in Fox wants to demonize Abdul. He's in very good shape to win. And it's strange that Republicans
Starting point is 00:19:14 are focusing their resources on that Senate race and not on trying to shore up some of these red states. Seems like you agree with that. But somebody who's predicted Trump to win twice in Michigan. Why do you think Abdul is looking safe? Folks, Bernie Sanders, I'm talking about polling misses, upset everybody's expectations, certainly Hillary Clinton's in 2016, and which state did he do that in? That was the state of Michigan. The older white vote, which has become so accustomed to we think about as part of the Republican coalition, is actually much more left-wing in Michigan than people seem to understand.
Starting point is 00:19:52 And Trump was able to actually pull some of those voters away from Hillary Clinton, depending on the estimates, 12 to 16 percent. and that delivered the state for him by about 10,000 votes. And of course, he built on that going into 24. But a little bit of history for people, Republicans haven't carried a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since the 1994 Republican Revolution. It's hard to find a modern cycle where you could say this is a more pro-Republican environment. It ended decades of Democratic dominance on Capitol Hill.
Starting point is 00:20:23 So it's a big deal. They lost it the very next election. They lost that very seat in 2000. to a lady, we all might know now. Her name was Debbie Stabenow. Before that, you have to go back to 1972, folks. So there really is little to suggest that Michigan, including the demographics and how they voted, but there's little to suggest that Michigan is the battleground state that
Starting point is 00:20:45 Republicans think it is, except for Donald Trump winning it twice. That's it. And before that, it was Herbert Walker Bush because Ronald Reagan told the country to do so, right? I mean, that's what he was going to. lose to the caucus. Yeah, the Willie Horton ads work, but Ronald Reagan doing that at the convention was a
Starting point is 00:21:05 big deal. And they weren't in love with him, but they were in love with Ronnie, so they listened to him. They gave him one shot, and then they voted for Bill Clinton. Okay? I mean, so this is idea that he, meaning Mike Rogers, is somehow going to perform stronger
Starting point is 00:21:21 than he did against Alyssa Slotkin. When Trump was on the ballot, given the state's history, is just extremely far fetch to me. And I think you see that Fox poll that came out. I mean, I'm, I've said it before. So I'll just, I'll just repeat it again. I think that's that's cover for the NRC, spending tons of money in a state that is going to be incredibly difficult. Socialism doesn't scare people in the state of Michigan the way that Republicans think it does. When you can't pay your own bills, folks, it's hard to argue against an
Starting point is 00:21:51 idea. They're much more afraid that they can't pay their rent or their car payment or get back to school clothes for their kids and fill up the refrigerator than they are about Republicans throwing around the word socialism. It just doesn't have the impact they think it does or ever did. So if you move to the red states where I think the Senate really will hang in the balance, you already referenced the Ohio race. Let me throw on Iowa, Alaska, Texas. I think Kansas is a little bit of a sleeper. It's a bit of a stretch, but kind of just you look at the demographics. I think, you too. So why don't you just kind of go through those states and kind of assess where you think Republicans might be vulnerable or where you think maybe maybe they aren't. Yeah. But just Kansas,
Starting point is 00:22:36 Nebraska and Montana have been three states where Republicans have repeatedly understated Democrats' chances, especially in a bad, of course, in a bad year. It's just these are, especially the old plain states, have long, long time populist. progressive roots that aren't as red as people seem to think they are because of presidential level voting. And by the way, we also saw this, uh, Orban, Orman, he lost. So it's kind of hard to remember, but somebody like Pat Roberts. Uh, they had to dump money in that race at the last minute. Oh, yeah. What was that guy's name in Kansas? Oh, God. Now we're going back. That was what, 2014? Yeah. You keep talking. I'm going to find it. Keep going. They slept on it. And it became
Starting point is 00:23:21 clear toward the end that oh man Roberts really is in trouble and he did end up winning it but you know not screaming double digits and it was an you got it right orman money. Orman yeah yeah it was Orman okay you lost by eight yeah but you know they they ignored that race but that was a good year for Republicans that's right like that was
Starting point is 00:23:39 he lost by eight that was 14 it was the Obama midterm so to you know again so if you project out like not crazy to think it could be exactly right and you know the other states is five Republicans are sleeping on. They just thought Ohio and Iowa and even Texas would be within their grass forever because of how Donald Trump performed in them. And this is, it's eubris. I don't know what else to call it.
Starting point is 00:24:04 And they actually drew a lot of the congressional districts with the same arrogance that using Trump's performance as a benchmark, well, you don't perform like Donald Trump performs in Texas, folks. I hate to tell you. Hispanics don't like you the way that they like Trump in 2024. I think this way about the Florida map. Can I offer a conspiracy theory to you? I want to throw out there. I got a friend who's probably going to agree with you. I think DeSantis drew that map, like almost as of DeSantis Mander, like almost to punish Trump
Starting point is 00:24:35 for this cycle. And then in a presidential year, some of the gains will come in. But I looked at that Florida map. And I think that there are a bunch of supposedly gerrymandered districts where you've, like, moved it to R plus 10 or 9 that are really vulnerable. because they're based on the assumption that these non-white gains. And in order to get that highest share of the working class, you have to bleed into non-whites. And Ruy Tashira, you know, he's got the liberal patriot.
Starting point is 00:25:04 He was one of the few voices in 24 where I was reading, looking at our own polling, saying, okay, this guy gets it. You actually can't do that well unless you accept the fact that Trump is starting to break into non-white working class voting cohorts. But it was Trump's. It wasn't universally applied to Republicans, which is why so many of them did underperform him in these areas. Some of them wrote his coattails, but it wasn't blanket and across the board. Trump's, if you look at the electoral college, you would have thought that Republicans would have ended up with much bigger majorities,
Starting point is 00:25:37 that Mike Rogers himself should have taken the state of Michigan. And we could go down this, but, you know, in Wisconsin, which was still actually kind of close. But when we start to get into the sunbelt and when we stay, because the rest belt's a different animal, When we start to get into the more non-white sunbelt, it really becomes a problem for Republicans. And we're seeing that in Georgia now. It's just not even competitive. John Ossoff is at this point stomping Collins. And he's doing so because all of Trump's non-white gains are gone.
Starting point is 00:26:06 And in a state like Texas, which is not far. What about the gubs race? Sorry to interrupt. What about the gubs race in Georgia? What do you think about that? I think that's always going to be more competitive. I haven't pulled it myself. I've seen it both ways where it's a point here, a few points here, a few points there.
Starting point is 00:26:19 until I pull that myself, I honestly, it's tough because they do like Republican governors. It's, it is, you know, it's a heavier lift. But at the senatorial level, it's done. It's been proven. At the presidential level, it has as well. And take all of that to Texas. And I just did a threat about this on X because I'm watching people just think that Texas, well, after all it is, Texas, it's still red. It hasn't been that red until Donald Trump won it by that much in 20.
Starting point is 00:26:49 Ted Cruz was not the only one to almost lose in 2018, which I would credit Donald Trump for saving. I would, he ran around the map campaigning for all of these guys. Ken Paxton himself almost lost as lieutenant general. It was a few points. Dan Patrick, it was a few points. Almost lost himself in that cycle. So what we don't know is have Democrats cap their gains on on college whites? If not, Republicans are in deep trouble.
Starting point is 00:27:16 and because we already know that the Hispanic gains that Trump made have all but been squandered at this point. And it doesn't, you know, people seem to think it gives me joy to say that. It doesn't at all. But that's the reality you can see. It gives me joy. I want to fight about something, Rich. What, what can Trump do? What do you think Trump can do the next two months?
Starting point is 00:27:37 Is there anything? And the war. Number one. And the war. What's how we're going to fight about? I mean, he's got to end the war. I mean, this is not, uh, this is basically not. unnegotiable. This was a war that 70% of the American public told us and they know they saw it.
Starting point is 00:27:52 Tony Fabrizio's polling was very similar. 70% said that they did not want them to do this, about 20% said they did. Have you ever seen a U.S. president start a conflict like this without even attempting to rally support for the war beforehand? George and not really care about it after, really half-hearted kind of push forward to after. I've never seen anything like this. but it feels like to me that there was a lack of appreciation for why presidents did that before. Cost of living has by far since the 24 election has been the most important issue. Nothing even comes close.
Starting point is 00:28:30 And the Iran war did nothing but further exacerbate that problem and cause them even more trust to be lost on their ability to handle that issue. So that's number one. And then two, I'm really, I really think now, I mean, it's September. actions speak louder than words. I'm not sure. There's anything Republicans can say at this point to change the national environment. It's not the same as it was when I was growing up where we would always hear, well, it's going to be Labor Day. And then the clock really starts.
Starting point is 00:29:02 Now, we're in the age of information now. We've been studying this for years. And the truth is, people, they tell themselves stories now. And the election narratives build within their mind very early. It's one of the reasons why the Harris switcher route didn't work. You know, the public had already told himself a story. And a new candidate really wasn't going to be able to shake that. The same thing with COVID, by the way.
Starting point is 00:29:26 You know, I mean, they told themselves Trump wasn't able to handle this. Especially when the new candidate didn't give a new story, really, which is another problem. Yeah, she didn't really. I mean, that might have not been the best selection, you know, because you needed something new. You needed something that would have changed. Well, we got to find something to fight about next time. Okay, I'm going to, before I let you go, next time we'll fight, I promise. I want to give you a chance to just pimp the book.
Starting point is 00:29:53 What do you say? What the polls say young Americans really want? What's the pitch? Yeah. This is basically the thesis is simple. I really do think it's either going to be MAGA or Mamdani, meaning I don't think either either establishments of the party will be able to survive in their current form if these needs, which are real, and the grievances are real, go unanswered. The DSA, which seems to be
Starting point is 00:30:19 baffling everybody, is foretold in the book. The rise of the DSA is foretold, because if MAGA did not meet the needs that people entrusted Trump to meet, then they were going to look for something else. Young Americans are nothing like what conservative and Republican voters think they are. They're telling themselves a fantasy. They might call themselves moderate, Tim, but they have very radical views and they just want things done and they'll pick some candidates
Starting point is 00:30:48 might not seem acceptable to 65 plus are perfectly acceptable to them and it will radically change this country if both parties don't move to answer it. Well Rich, you're going to take some shit for this so I'm going to give you this little clip you could send to people. You're a prick
Starting point is 00:31:04 okay, you're a fucking fascist prick. All right, Rich? Just so you know. Who that, Tim? I'm never coming on this show again. There we go. Clip that for 20 seconds. Thanks.
Starting point is 00:31:15 I appreciate it. That's Rich Beres. I appreciate your analysis. Let's stay in touch, all the best, Tim. Thanks for having me. I see, brother.

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