Bulwark Takes - NEW POLL: Independent Voters are Rejecting Trump (w/ Alyssa Cass)

Episode Date: November 11, 2025

Sam Stein is joined by Blueprint's chief strategist Alyssa Cass for her take on Blueprint's new poll, unpacking the data behind Trump's actions and what policies voters consider "authoritarian." Blueprint: Authoritarian, Just Unpopular, or Both? Trump’s Actions Under a Microscope: https://blueprint-research.com/polling/authoritarian-test/

Hey, everybody. It's me, Sam Stein, managing editor at The Bullwark, and I am grateful to be joined by a list cast, who is the chief strategist at Blue Print. I got that right, right? You did. Because you guys have like, you have slingshot, you got Blueprint, and then you got, and you work on a number of campaigns. So it's always very difficult to figure out what exactly your title is. Yeah. Anytime I show up on one of these, I just put all the names into a fishbowl and I'll pull it out. That's how we name Blueprints as well. Well, for the purpose of this, you were at Blueprint because we're talking about new polling that you guys just put out, which was kind of interesting to me. And I'm kind of curious about the methodology behind the poll. Before we get into that, for everyone who's watching this, please subscribe to our feed where you get great content like this.

All right. So, listen, tell us a little bit about the poll and the methodology behind it, and then I want to get into the results. Great. So for Blueprint, we surveyed an online sample of over 3,000 voters, 3,028 to be precise from mid to late September and weighed to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results. We've got a margin of error of 2.1. How we do these are often through a what we call a max diff that randomizes options between, you know, either A or B to a large

survey of voters to give us the results that we'll talk about today. Yeah. And so you guys looking specifically at authoritarianism and whether voters actually saw Donald Trump as an authoritarian or not. And then you broke it down by individual acts. How many do you have like 25? I want to try it. 25 actions. Yeah. And you looked at whether or not they supported those acts and whether or not they considered those acts to be authoritarian. Before we get into the actual results, why did you choose to do this? Why do we choose to do this? So there's a, there's a lot in the discourse that is, you know, which I think particularly after Joe Biden made sort of the fight for the soul of the country, a centerpiece of his campaign, I think there's been a lot

of conversation, discourse, and takes that, you know, that Democrats or sort of those in the anti-Trump coalition focusing on his autocratic proclivities is not a message for voters. that it should be all about the economy, and you have people sort of all about the economy, or we need- Affordability, yeah. So let me just say, on these 25 actions, only one case, did the respondents say, over 50% say that the action they deemed to be authoritarian. That was when it was signing executive orders to investigate or persecute political enemies. Now, there were a number of actions where it was like right around 50% through, like,

firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because Trump didn't like the job numbers, deploying National Guard to L.A. in Washington and potentially more cities, those were 50% thought they were authoritarian. How should we process those numbers? Because on the one hand, you know, 54% only one of the 25 was over 50%. You could say, well, that seems low. On the other hand, if half the country thinks these actions are authoritarian on a host of issues, that does seem like a lot.

How do you process it? Yeah, it didn't surprise me because I think that for a lot of Americans, under, like, you go through a process of what's the lead, you know, what's the technical definition of an autocrat, right, or authoritarian? And what was surprised, you know, and when you dig into the cross tabs here, you actually see that older voters, right? People who live through the Cold War and who have more familiarity with maybe, you know, autocratic regimes, they were more likely to say actions were authoritarian. What really jumped out at me here was that broad swatches of voters.

You know, obviously buoyed by Republicans, by Democrats, but Republicans and overwhelmingly independents view actions as authoritarian and oppose them. But for me, when you have huge amounts of a voter saying, we don't like this, 60% opposition on investigating or persecuting political enemies, 62% opposing polling FCC licenses for NBC and ABC. 62% opposing investigating Chris Christie.

Yeah, 60%, you know. A lot of people, a lot of people supportive of Chris Christie. Yeah, lots of allies for Chris Christie or 60% opposing, you know, mass ice raids. To me, like the terminal, like, you know, perhaps we don't shout autocrat from the rooftop. in paid messaging and on social media. But I think that voters are what you have to pick up here is that they don't like it and it feels it's striking them as weird because it is. It's a weird thing to be happening here.

But I think you hit on something really important, which is like the distinction between how, well, distinction over how you message it. So for instance, let's just take one of the 25, engaging in self-dealing in personal enrichment. Okay. Only 42% of respondents said that's authoritarian behavior. But 64% of respondents opposed it, okay? Again, Trump family investing in crypto, creating their own coins and using political power to promote them, which is happening objectively.

42% said that's authoritarian behavior, but 62% said they opposed it. I mean, we have these incredible gulfs in these data points. And it does suggest that maybe Democrats shouldn't just be screaming, this is an authoritarian and should be saying these specific actions and enlisting the action. these are wrong and we oppose them. I couldn't agree with that more. And, you know, the data points that were most interesting to me as someone who is less of the quant and more, you know, I do communications for democratic campaigns.

What really jumped out at me is that Republican and independent opposition is really congealing around Trump family self-dealings and financial corruption. Only 39% support the expansion of Trump golf courses. Only 38% welcoming billions in investment from Saudi Arabia. Only 36% support the Trump family's investments in crypto. And what that says to me is that there is a story and a tactical opportunity here. Let's look at the elections that just happened in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia, all around affordability. And I would note that in New York and in New Jersey in particular, Mandani and

and Cheryl really identified an enemy. And when I look at the support for these sorts of brazen behaviors that can be so easily remembered and caricatured and put into social videos and, you know, like fun things you can do online, the contrast between Trump isn't talking about or caring about how much you're paying while he's spending a lot of time making himself richer,

that, to me, feels like a way to make the affordability, to make that affordability message with a contrast to Trump feels really powerful and also memorable. We see, like, I know that a sort of, you know, bulwark hobby horse has become the Trump ballroom. That, because like, that's visually, you know, it just sticks with you. Yeah. Well, especially if you're, if your family's struggling to make a. meat or you're, you know, you're losing a job or the cost of groceries just out of control. If you see the guy, you know, enriching himself with a crypto coin and then leveling the East Wing to make it into some gold ballroom, yeah, of course, it's vigil.

Let me just end on one thing, which is, you know, you did cut out how independent voters respond to these things. And I think it's really important to note that the numbers I referenced earlier was all voters. But when you just look at independent voters, I mean, there are. real elevated concerns that what actions he's taken are, in fact, authoritarian. So among those that polled over 50 percent, these are things that independents said constituted authoritarianism. We have signing executive orders to investigate and prosecute political enemies,

suggesting the FEC poll broadcast license for ABC and NBC, firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because he didn't like the jobs, firing DOJ lawyers who prosecuted the J6 rioters, threatening to investigate Chris Christie. Everyone loves Chris Christie, apparently. Deploying the National Guard to LA and Washington, ordering mask ice raids nationwide with agents refusing to show badge numbers or warrants. All those got over 50% response for people who said, independents who said, this is authoritarianism. So it does seem like middle of the road voters are put off by a lot of this stuff. I think what we saw in the elections last week, you are seen in this poll. Without a doubt, the proof is here in the pudding.

independent voters are rejecting Trump 2.0 governance. There is no if-ands or butts about it. We saw it on Tuesday. We are seeing it in the results you just read out. Independent voters think Trump is acting like an autocrat, think his individual actions represent authoritarianism, and they broadly oppose it. Independents are rejecting Trump.

And that's something that should reassure those of us. majorities in some parts, but pluralities everywhere who believe our democracy is at stake. Yeah. All right, Alyssa Cass, who is the chief strategist for Blueprint. Really appreciate the work here. Really appreciate it coming on and talking to us. Again, for those who've watched it, please subscribe to the feed where you get great conversations like this.

Alyssa, we'll talk to you soon, okay? Thanks so much.