Bulwark Takes - Sarah Longwell: “Smell the Weakness, Go for the Jugular”

Episode Date: July 22, 2025

Sarah Longwell and Lauren Egan talk about the political silence around Epstein—why Trump hasn’t faced real fallout, how Democrats are tiptoeing around it, and what it says about who gets protected in American politics.

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Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. Ben MGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Hello everybody and welcome to The Bullwork. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bullwork and I am here with Lauren Egan, author of the Opposition Newsletter, who has all the tea on the Dems.

And she's got a banger newsletter out right now that I love, mainly because it confirms my priors, which is the best way to my heart is to tell me something that I believe to be true. But your newsletter is talking about Dems, their 2026 strategy, how they're going to think about messaging. And the part that I thought was so smart, and I'm interested in who you talked to, there were some people quoted in the story, but how many Democrats are sort of seeing this pathway, which is to go into 2026 talking about how what Trump is doing, whether it's Epstein, whether it's the big billionaires bill, whether it was Elon, you know, that's not in the piece, But I think it's another data point that goes in this direction that what Trump is doing

is protecting the elites. He is protecting the rich and he is doing it on the backs of the poor, which I think is a very smart strategy. So talk about your piece and how you reported it out. Yeah, I think that this is something that a lot of Democrats recognize is a potential winning message. But there's a difference between recognizing that it's a good message and then actually putting it into practice, which I'm sure you have some experience with that, Sarah, with

working with candidates, is you can tell them, you know, they can sit in these meetings and agree that this is a really strong message. But then when you go out there on cable news, when you go out there on social media, not everyone is kind of able to deliver that message and get on the same page. I have a Pelosi quote in the in the piece. She was on MSNBC just a few days ago and she was asked about Epstein and she stands there and says it's a distraction and that Democrats should just be talking about kitchen table issues, which like, you know, it's a distraction and that Democrats should just be talking about kitchen table issues, which like, you know, it's kind of like, what are we doing

here? So there is a bit of a generational divide too, I think, with who's able to sort of like clearly deliver on this message. And you know, if you spend some time on social media, if you are well versed in TikTok or other things like that, you probably know that Epstein is a really great way to get a foothold into people's attention and then broaden it out to the larger message, which is Trump is protecting the elites. And he always was. And now you're seeing it with a thing that everyone is paying attention to that being Epstein. Yeah. I mean,

look, I, uh, I've said this on the next level. We were talking about Epstein, and I was saying to the guys, hey, this story's got real legs in a way that other stories haven't. And I said, look, we're definitely going to be talking about this again next week. And Tim's question was, but will we be talking about it next summer?

And the answer to that is, we will be if Democrats make it an issue. And look, I think there are ways to weave in a whole bunch of things from Epstein. And look, here's the thing. You're going to get pushback from people like, I think what Nancy Pelosi was trying to say, and you're going to hear this from other people,

is the normies aren't focused on Epstein, right? They're trying to figure out how to pay their bills. And this is true. Listen, I listen to voters every week in focus groups. You ask them how things are going in the country. They're not going to tell you that things are bad because of Epstein. They're going to tell you things are too expensive. They're going to tell you their cost of living is too high, that their housing prices is too high. That is where everybody goes sort of right away. But they also talk about their broader concerns about where America is headed and like, what are we doing here?

And they are concerned, like the way to tag into their concerns about prices is number one to tell them you got a plan to lower them, but also that Donald Trump is not doing it. Right? I mean, he was elected by a lot of people who said, look, the guy's a businessman, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, they're not getting it done in terms of prices. I want inflation down. I want things to be cheaper. And so tell that like they know things aren't getting cheaper. They know their prices are still really high. They know they're if you look at any poll about Trump's handling of the economy, they will tell you people think he should be focused more on prices.

I think people sometimes think these are two separate issues, as opposed to seeing how you can bring these issues together to take one that is salacious. This is what people, I think, Nancy Pelosi and the gerontocracy, we've got to get you guys to think it's everybody should you did a great job, but maybe it's time to exit stage left. Because we need people who understand that for low information voters, as we've long talked about them are no longer low information. They have tons of information. They are swimming in information, but they are not news seekers. They are not digging into the big billionaires bill to figure out what the tax breaks are for the billionaires versus what they're going

to get. They are passive consumers of a lot of news. So a lot of times it's like, well, what jumps out? Are people going to read about the pedophile who was extremely good friends with the president of the United States, who killed himself under very strange circumstances? They might. They're much more likely to attach to that. It's one of the reasons Republicans talk about trans issues all the time. It's because it's an easy thing to understand and an easy thing to have an opinion about. If you can get people's attention with Epstein and then use that to say Trump has been protecting his elite friends, which is exactly what he did with the big billionaires bill, which is exactly what he did when he let Elon pay for his campaign. There's just so many ways to take what Donald Trump has done

during the first part of his administration and take it back to the fact that he lied to you guys. He said he was going to lower grocery prices. He said he was going to release the Epstein files. He hasn't done any of that. Said he was going to cut money, cut the debt. He didn't do that either. Like, there's a lot to work with. and I think it is just a matter of and this is what I would like to say to Dems Get mad about it Like don't don't stay on message because someone who does focus groups told you to like be Genuinely upset that the Attorney General is lying to you And then you won't forget your talking points because you'll be genuinely upset that Donald Trump lied to your constituents about lowering grocery prices to get their votes and then didn't do anything about it.

Didn't even focus on it. Sorry. Now I'm just ranting at you, Lauren. I'm sorry. I think you're touching onto this concept of the attention economy, which is something we've talked a lot about. And I do think that Democrats are finally sort of starting to get it a little bit. I talked to plenty of strategists for the story,

and a few of them admitted off the record that when they first, the Epstein things started bubbling up again. They're like, yeah, that was not really an area we felt comfortable sort of talking about. But they kind of like, we had to come around to it because in politics, the most important thing right now is if people are paying attention to your message or not.

And as much as Democrats would love to just be out there talking about Medicaid and only Medicaid and just sticking to these safe policy zones that they feel really comfortable in, that's just not going to get people's attention like Epstein is. And if you can start there and tie it to what you're saying, tie that into Medicaid because it is all part of the same story. People are going to lose their Medicaid because Trump cut it so that he could fund a tax break for his wealthy friends. That is basically what the message is. Do Dems feel like comfortable with this? Like, do they feel like they've got it or they still feel like, I don't know, will Epstein still be around or, or do they feel like observers of the Epstein thing? This is the thing I worry about, that Democrats

see at the Epstein issue as a fight between MAGA and sort of Trump and like they're a third party observer as opposed to saying, no, we're Americans and I want answers from Pam Bondi, the attorney general. Do you get that sense that Democrats feel, because I guess my sense from them has been that they've lost some of their, they're too cynical now, like they've lost the ability to get their back up in a way that's meaningful because nothing has seemed to matter for so long. But do you get the sense that they're starting to find not just their talking points, but their sense of indignation at the way things are going? Yeah, but I still feel like it's kind of coming from like the same

group of people for the most part. I mean, you know, with the Epstein thing, too, there's some Democrats who are like, well, we don't want to lean too hard into it because if this looks like an issue that Democrats have completely taken over, then we're just going to risk spoiling it and that people won't want to pay attention as much. But the indignation, it's there among some, but you still talk to lawmakers and there's plenty of people in the Senate, there's plenty of people in Congress who are the more vocal Democrats about like, this is a really scary moment in American politics. And they will tell you that not the entire caucus is fully on board. And, you know, thinking that way, even though, you know, we've seen a lot of crazy shit go down and it's only six months

in. So I want to talk about the other part of your newsletter, because that was also interesting to me, which is that the Republicans who are in the most competitive seats are raising a lot of money. Whereas it's a lot of the Democrats in the safe seats who have good institutional fundraising. They're the ones raising money right now and not the Democrats who are in really competitive seats or could be in competitive seats.

Like what is going on with the fundraising on the Dem side right now? Yeah, I think this has always been a problem for Democrats or at least it has been in the past few years. I always think about the Jamie Harrison Senate race in South Carolina as like a perfect example of this kind of problem that Democrats have. I mean, I forget what the exact number was, but Jamie Harrison raised an insane amount of money in that South Carolina Senate race against Lindsey Graham. This was right before he went on to be the DNC chair.

And it just captures this, you know, Democrats like to give to who's going to pop off on social media, who kind of makes them feel good. Harrison had no shot of winning that South Carolina seat. A family in South Carolina, that is one of the reddest states in America. And yet he raised a ton of money. And you're kind of seeing the same thing happen in some house races right now. And there are some moderate Democrats out there being like, hey, guys, we need to change this up if we actually want to win

in these purple districts in these competitive races. Like, why are we giving so much money to, you know, so and so who's in a super safe seat, who just has great social media and like makes us feel really good about being Democrats. That's not the strategy that we should be employing. Is it is it going? Are these small dollar donations? Like it's not like this is coming from the right. Exactly. Yeah, it's like who's going to hop on ActBlue and give a few bucks. Exactly. Well, this is the problem. I mean, I saw this, you see a lot of like people jumping in races again. The reason Jamie Harrison raised so much money isn't just because he was good on social media, it's because he was running against Lindsey Graham, who everyone was super pissed at for being such a weirdo in the sort of post John McCain Republican Party and for totally started going from major Trump critic to Trump bootlicker. everybody was like, let's get rid of this guy, even though South Carolina was going to elect a Republican. And so and you saw this with like Amy McGrath, you saw it with

that guy who ran against MTG. Like this, people run in these races, and they're not competitive races, but people want to give to them because they hate the opponent and that is not the strategy. The strategy is to go fund people and they're probably less exciting because they're probably more moderate because they have to win a seat that is R plus four and so like you might not they might not be your favorite personally, but they are the ones who are going to get you where you want to go in terms of lawmaking. Correct? Absolutely.

Yeah. Like they're not going to be the people to your point that you are going to make you feel the most excited probably. Um, but if you want to win the house, that's where your dollars have to go. Yeah. Um, well, I appreciated that, uh, you covered the Epstein in a political context. I think that actually, I want to go back to one thing you said, because this is worth spinning on for just a couple of minutes. This idea of Democrats not wanting to be the ones to push the Epstein story lest it like re-coalesce the MAGA coalition is

kind of a fair concern. I can see that. Nothing sort of re- sort of brings the MAGA coalition back together than when they think Donald Trump is being unfairly persecuted. Here's the one thing that I think is different about this situation than every other time this has happened, whether it's been Russia or the Mueller investigation or the impeachments. In all of those cases, those started with Democrats, right? Those were, or I mean, I guess the Mueller investigation isn't like a democratic thing,

but they were all seen as ways to like get Donald Trump from his enemies. And so that sort of did like that that coalesce people. This is coming from the MAGA coalition. It's and it calling the MAGA coalition isn't even quite right. It is coming from sort of two different camps. One is the activist class, the talkers, the podcasters, the people who go to a turning point USA conference. And that matters for energy. And so the idea that you're able to diminish people's sense of urgency around their support for Trump,

or even a lot of these people, they rationalize their support. Well, we've got to do this because he's the only, you got to forgive all the other stuff because he's the only one who's going to show us this critical stuff. Sort of depletes some of that and that matters. Then the other cohort, and these ones are much less attached to Trump, are a lot of these more independent kind of bro-y guys. It's your Thiovans, it's your Joe Rogan's, people who made sort of a real time coalition with Trumps, they were annoyed with Democrats,

they're annoyed with wokeness, you know, whatever. And they thought, you know, well, Trump's more authentic, Trump's sort of telling you like it is, whatever. This is the kind of thing. And a lot of them tend to be they're like, they were sort of stealth styled free speech warriors. They don't like being censored themselves. And so they feel some kinship with Trump in a way that him not releasing the Epstein files,

him being a constant anti-free speech president, then also him bombing Iran, you know, sending the weapons to Ukraine. Like these tend to be people who are on the horseshoe continuum. And so when Trump starts to behave the way he's behaved on a lot of different fronts, those people fall off pretty quickly. And so I do think it matters. And I also think Democrats can go on offense

in a way in these races and say, I'm gonna, you know, if I'm elected in Congress and we have a majority, we're gonna make sure that this guy's held accountable. We're going to make sure that we get these files out there, whatever they may be, because he is covering things up. He is lying about them. And I think that the risk, I understand what people are saying, but sometimes this is where Democrats to me do a little bit of like, they get paralysis by analysis, where they spend so much time talking about what their message should be, as opposed to just like, drive, drive, drive the message, go, go, go.

Instead of this, like, I think this is a distraction and we should be talking about this. Just talk about what you think is important. They should stop using the word distraction. I just think that they would be best off if they don't use the word distraction from here until midterms. But to that point, I think, yeah, I think you're exactly right. I don't think Democrats can afford to not try. And also, you know, the party over the past few months, there's been a lot of conversation

about like, okay, well, do you let Trump just kind of like, drive his own numbers down? Do you let him just get himself in trouble? Or do Democrats actually have a role to play in that? And I do think sort of the, some of the apprehension about like, how do you engage with Epstein is coming from a place where some Democrats feel like they don't really always have a role to play

in public opinion, that their best, the best thing they can do is kind of just be hands off about it. And there is a pretty big disagreement in the party about how you shape public opinion and what the party's role should be in that. And I think that how they're handling Epstein is a bit of a manifestation of that. Okay. Well, guys, let me tell you, the Epstein thing's got legs.

And what you can do is like, fine, you don't have to be a social media influencer or a pundit about it. Although I do think for some enterprising young Democrats, like you've got some attack dogs in your roster and you know, when they get out there and they kind of go in all directions, they're not always as good as they could be, but you stick them on Epstein, get them on this, let them go out there and you do need at least part of the party that is out there on offense being aggressive about this, pushing the story.

And also like what the moment we're in now, I did a thing with Bill on Sunday, you guys should go watch it. It was like a live substack thing, but it's on YouTube, where we're talking about the anatomy of a scandal. Like when I say it's got legs, what I mean is, is it has been set in motion sufficiently, and the public interest now is sufficient, that media is starting to cover new developments in the story, and that means new people are coming forward,

sources are being pressed, what do you know? Julie Kay, I'm so terrible, I'm blanking on her name, who did the original reporting for the Miami Herald, Bill had her on the show. You know, she's been back out there talking about her original reporting, looking out for the victims, pressing for accountability for the victims. They're talking about having Ghislaine or however you pronounce her name in front of Congress. Like these are the things that create a story that develops, captures the nation's attention. And if you go back to Nixon or any other big Iran-Contra, you know, these things weren't like blown wide open in the first minute. Like you had

to press them. And that is how like new things come unearthed and new details come to light. And Donald Trump clearly doesn't want to talk about this. And so Democrats, I think, should sense that vulnerability and press on it. That's Donald Trump's lizard brain ability is to like see where the other side is weak and go right for it and the idea that they would look at Trump's well we're fear about this whether it's that he did something wrong or whether it's he's engaged in some cover-up or

whatever it is like smell the weakness go for the jugular where's your killer instinct guys go find it all right sorry, I've ranted enough. This has been Lauren. Thank you for doing real reporting, not just ranting, talking to people, because I think that this is how the story ends up moving forward, is that Democrats understand their role to play.

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