Bulwark Takes - Tesla Sales Collapse 71%! Elon’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, VERY Bad Quarter

Episode Date: April 23, 2025

Tim Miller and Sam Stein unpack Tesla’s disastrous quarter and Elon Musk’s uncertain future in government as Tesla sales plunge a whopping 71%, and his unpopularity is higher than ever.

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Let your ideas flow with AI tools that guide you, but give you full control and flexibility. Manage your business from one dashboard and keep it growing with built-in marketing features. Get everything you need to turn your part-time passion into a full-time business. Go to Wix.com. Hey guys, it's me, Sam Stein, Managing Editor at The Bullwark. I'm joined by Tim Miller, and we're here to talk about Tesla. Some pretty poor earnings numbers in their first quarter earnings reports.

Elon Musk addressing this and then also revealing in the call that he is likely to get out of Dodge in May. Get out of Doge. Doge, yeah. That's pretty good. Good dad joke. I introduced my daughter to Alexander last night, Sam. She never read Alexander before last night, Sam. She never read Alexander before last night. And?

So loved it. What kid doesn't love it? Just kind of living vicariously through another child's horrible day? And what a grown person doesn't love that, as we're about to do. I mean, it's just like, oh, no, Elon. Oh, no, the earnings got worse. Oh, the numbers are going down even more. Oh, he might be kicked out of Dojo.

Nobody likes Elon. That's too bad. Isn't it? Aren't you sad for him? I'm not sad. No, I think he did this to himself. Here are the data points, and then I'll get your reaction. Net income for Tesla down 71%.

Musk said that the company is earning $0.27 per share. That was well below expectations of 41 cents. The thing I liked from the Wall Street Journal article of this was they said, must, quote, sigh deeply when asked to address Trump's trade war and made the case that he actually is against the terrorists, but he can only offer his advice and Trump will do what he wants. I will note the only other thing that I'll turn to you, the reason that this is clearly a reputational matter as much as a business one

is because while Tesla really struggled, it has an energy storage business as well as a software subscription business. And those two actually performed above expectations. So it was really automotive sales that really suffered. And that is basically because people just don't want to buy Teslas because they don't like the guy. You know, I just pulled up the old stock chart. It's better today. Not really. Not if you zoom out. Not if you zoom out.

I do the 24 hours. I've zoomed down six months. I've clicked on the six-month button. And what you see here is it's like it's kind of reminiscent of my christmas break it's like you're skiing you know you're just going down the hill you're hitting a couple moguls and then down the hill again and then a couple more moguls and then you're down another hill you east coast skiers don't know about that but in the rockies you got a lot of different hills you get to go down big long uh big long long trails there at beaver creek and elon spent some time at beaver

creek too um not great down to 237 let's see what was the high there what was the peak there 479 that's half that's down more than half quick math there uh we're taping this late at night that's not good not great so you would see why some of the shareholders like uh you know we i think last time we did this we're talking about dave fortnoy at barstool why some of them are like maybe go back to work and maybe that is related to the doge at some point if they have another bad quarter here maybe elon you stop tweeting and stop paying attention everything but your company and get back to work before we get to the doge part of it though there's one other fact that I was surprised you didn't

share. I guess it cuts a little bit both ways for progressives. And that is that in addition to those two non-consumer facing businesses that do well, the other thing that was making money for Tesla was the regulatory credits. To sell the regulatory credits, like to sell the regulatory credits being an electric vehicle company thanks to the various stimulus packages that have been packed by Joe Biden.

And there's some irony there. There's some hypocrisy there. As a former Republican, I listened to that and I kind of think, maybe we don't need to be doing these anymore. Maybe this could be the moment where i could win some democrats over to my cause and it seems like the market they did their job you know some subsidies to get the market going but it seems like the market's going fine and do we really need to be subsidizing elon musk failed company right now with consumer tax credits on evs i don't know yeah

the story of that is goes back even further i mean he it was government intervention that helped get tesla going in the first place right so we wouldn't even beat that and that's obama era stuff so you know we can have a lengthier debate about government subsidies but clearly he's profited from the government and it's ironic that his time in the government is going to witness him suffering the most profit. Well, I'll just say maybe this could be a bipartisan. We haven't had really any bipartisan deals on the Hill these days. Sure, won't be the deal. Well, I mean, you know, some of the Republicans are really struggling to find any pay force for the massive tax cuts for billionaires.

We'll cover it, but yeah. So, you know, here could be one pay for. We're going to stop doing EV subsidies and you could get some, you know, spiteful liberals. A couple of Jared Moskowitz might sign on for that. A couple of spiteful Democrats to troll Elon to come across the aisle and join you. And, you know, there you go.

That might just be something to consider. Tim, what's the alternative history here where Elon doesn't, Elon funds Trump, gets him into the office, and then stays back. Doesn't do much. Unbelievable riches, honestly. And like this is just really such a

cell phone. Like, again, this is all the, there is really no alternate history though because like this all dates back to, okay, I'm just saying, if we're going to really roll back the clock this this all starts probably with his trans daughter or with sure or with the social media breaking his brain right because so like him supporting trump is is tied to the so to buying twitter and the social media breaking his brain inextricably right so it's like kind of hard to imagine okay you have 250 minutes if he was not a twitter addict that said had he just had like someone stolen his phone

let's say like someone just stole like his 10th baby mama stolen has stolen all of his phones and laptops and got a hammer out there and we're just like you're just going to sire children and sit in tesla board meetings. I think unbelievable. Because he would have all the subsidies we're talking about. They would have the things that they were talking about doing that they got blowback on. Who knows what will happen? The government contracts for the Starlinks, but then also for the fucking trucks, the cyber trucks. It was the State Department cyber trucks, the Starlinks.

Then we're talking about SpaceX, which gets tons of government fund money too. So yeah. So you have an inside track on the president who's a very transactional person. And I'd sure just be getting even more government subsidies and Tesla would be doing fine. So that's a big oopsie for him actually it seems like to me what are the lessons then don't be insane don't or or do could maybe the better question is could doge have worked out if it was done differently because i think at this point interview the canadian doge guy yeah i did his thing was like you have to do it like a classic

consultant class right like you bring in like you know all these consultants people and they come and yeah bring people to your gym yeah you you make a bunch of excel spreadsheets and you bring people together and you figure it out and like that's boring um and i guess it worked in canada maybe i don't know if it works here um but like could do could elon had gone to doge and done done things different i think it's fair to say now the the book on doge is getting close i'm not saying it's close it's close to closed um well i don't think it's as close as you think i want to get to that in a second because i don't think he's actually leaving but um but but just just let's let's go do what we

know today yeah i think that like if you had actually put put – I'm stealing this bit from Matt Iglesias. But if you had given Elon a remit that was things that he actually knows shit about. Trade and tariffs. Like trade and tariffs. Manufacturing. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Upgrading the government. Making actually more efficient, not fake efficient.

Actually more efficient like how the government works. In every department where we do paper, putting it online, all that kind of stuff. Sure, I'm sure that there's obviously more efficiency. Obama tried this and made some progress, a little bit of progress, but had you put real effort of tech nerds in

to modernize the government and make more of it? Look, look everybody agrees even the liberals that are rolling their eyes at us right now who are watching this who know everything that every government does great obviously the defense department could be more efficient and you just look at any defense contracting situation that we have what we're paying for a plane versus what germany is right like so yeah sure like there are things that could have been done elon is not incapable of doing it because he has brain

worms and tweets 21 hours a day and has been totally radicalized by COVID and transgender people and hates everyone. The alternative history in this world is a couple steps. Elon gets in there, says, I'm going to do Doge, but I'm also going to somehow

create some silo of my business interests. I'm just going to step away from some of these companies. That was never possible. Well, just play along with me. And then he says, we're going to focus on a couple of things. We're going to focus on upgrading the tech, tech acquisition. I'm going to go into department of transportation because I know stuff about DOT. Like I can help out there.

I'm in the business. And then we're going to sort of like, you know, go into the Pentagon as well a little bit and just figure out stuff there and just modernize the technology and the infrastructure of government. And start there. And in contract.

And if we can get that going, I'll build off that. Instead, what he does is the first thing he does is he goes after USAID. And it made no sense. And it set a bad tone uh a bad and i just think you know and then of course he sort of reveled in the idea of breaking stuff and doing what he did at twitter and then that just set everything off in the wrong way yeah so you don't think he's gone though i don't think he's gone so here's why i think there are two things happening. And you don't... I try very hard

not to be the guy that's like, if you read between the lines in the 4D chess that's being played. I pretty much... When it comes to Trump and Musk, I pretty much take them at face value. They're liars, but they're transparent liars, and so you can

kind of tell what they're up to most of the time. I usually am not. Like Trump does not have the brain cells for 4D chess. But here's a couple. There are a couple of just interesting facts for Elon that are worth just thinking about here. Number one, he's obviously doing damage control. We just went over the fact that his company has stock prices.

So he needs to tell them, I'm going to be back. He's got to tell the shareholders something. Right? And most of the – Tesla is like weird in this way. We're like, and I don't, I don't,

I guess we could do a survey of them and update what they think about Elon now. But like a lot of the shareholders of Tesla are like Elon super fan, fan boys, right? Like his, the company trades at way more than the value because people just believe in him.

And right. So, so like him telling his shareholders, I I'm going to come back, mean something to them in a way that I wouldn't like to us. If Sarah had announced that Elon's going to come in and take over the Bulwark operations, I think that would cause a panic inside the team. I probably would not be a fan. Yeah, they'd be quitting.

I'd be updating my resume. Yeah, their mindset, I think, is going to be a little different because they have an Elon cult. Okay. So he's got to tell them that. Number two, and I know these guys don't care about the laws that much, but it's worth pointing out that he is a special government employee. And there's a 130-day limit, which we're coming up on. But you can take a break and go back. Right? And so this could just be fake fake

fakey i just i think that there's a chance that this is just hooey fooey fakey things and elon's like i'm going in i'm going to take a break i'm going to go back i'm going to just in vitro fertilize a couple of crypto women and i'm going to go to a couple tesla meetings and then in june i'm gonna come back again and we're going to eliminate the post office like i just talk i don't think there's a little bit that's not a zero percent chance a little bit of a side but because i was off but we didn't talk about the uh the other wall street journal story about the care packages he puts together for his baby mamas and all that stuff i was blown away by how much money he's giving each of these people. Well, and taking away though, giving them and taking.

Yeah. Well, yeah. I mean, he was giving them a lot of money, but then taking them away. If they like had the temerity to be like, you have to show up to a, to a doctor's appointment. Yeah. So many parts of that story were beyond weird. It made me kind of uncomfortable reading it. Anyways, for another point.

I'm surprised to make sure I'm comfortable reading a story about Elon sliding into the DMs of random women being like, well, can I have your womb? Can I have your womb, ma'am? That's so fucked up. I just don't know people like this. maybe they exist in some weird rich universe but

it's just so fucked up all right i disagree with you i think elon's i think elon's getting ready to hit that i think it's over and sort of like a classic washington tale in a way right it's like you think you're bigger than the state but in the most extreme version of it but with a few other baby mamas coming in and like you know um but it's like you know that's like washington tale south african billionaire comes in and becomes deputy president this is just same thing happened during the chest area arthur administration um no the the the point i'm trying to make is that there's been plenty of people who come in thinking they can remake Washington DC and government itself. And, you know, the best and the smartest and

the brightest, and they had the, you know, most incredible business acumen and they're going to do things differently. And, you know, and if only like people just put enough effort into it and we slept on the floor and, you know and all this shit. And in the end, what you discover is that it's not, you know, the city is not just about outside force. It's about inside relations. And he didn't have any of that.

He still doesn't. He's pissed off a lot of people, including in this administration. And you're seeing it now. Like, Sean Duffy definitely doesn't like the guy. Like, Marco Rubio clearly has pushed back on the guy. Like, all that reporting that they were like, oh, it's not really true. Of course it was true. And, you know, Steve Bannon doesn't like the guy.

And, like, at some point, you've got to have some relations if you want to get things done. And Elon just never bought it. He's having relations. Different. I want to give people a little dessert, though. That wasn't the counter. No, it is. It is. It's the bad. I want to leave it more delicious, like a second course of dessert. The return to Tesla isn't going to work.

You don't think so? Oh my God. I mean, he is in such a bad way. Like the brand is in such a bad way. There's nothing you can do. It's like, I don't know. You were a good kid, right? You went to Dartmouth.

You were a good kid, so you might not know about this. All the bad kids out there will get this. Sometimes you've done enough bad things, and your mother, and father sometimes, but often, in my case, the mother. It's just like there's nothing you can say you know like you're just so deep in the doghouse based on your behavior that there's just no you can do you can go get a's you can say yes ma'am you can go to church but like it's just it's true too deep in the dog as you can't get out you can't get what could he do to win back the people he's pissed off it's over nothing it's over it's over it's gone he's gone and so like this the company's whole brand salience has evaporated.

And frankly, you've got to assume that the next quarter is worse because this stuff takes time to kind of cycle through. Well, yeah, and then you have the macroeconomic factors that really haven't – I mean, yes, there are some – some of that's in this. But the brand is done for liberals at least. You will not see liberals flock to this. Most of them are trying to get rid of them. They just can't get rid of them in the secondary market. We were talking, I remember an earlier show, I forget what it was, but we were trying

to think of someone who tanked his own brand and image and company as badly as this. And the only parallel I had was Subway Jared like he was not he was not selling he wasn't selling subs after that papa john papa john yeah didn't you do some racist stuff yes yeah i don't know if i heard the brand to be honest papa john had a different kind of consumer makeup than Tesla.

The Tesla consumer profile is a little different. Yeah, that's a fair point. How are we looking on Kalshi for Elon? Kalshi. Guess the lines. All right. Brought to you by Kalshi. Pay us, Kalshi.

We got to get some sponsorship. Brought to us by Jesuit Refugee Services. They sponsored the podcast two times, and I'm trying to give them free love now. Go support Jesuit Refugee Services. That's a good one. Basically the same as Kalshi. They're sponsoring this gambling segment. I don't have their approval for that. All right.

So I have to give you warning. The numbers have really tanked after this investor's call. Will Musk leave Doge? They have before May 1st, before June 16th, and then before January 1st. Obviously, it's going to be before January 1st. All right. Before May 1st, what do you think the percentage is? Well, it's April 22nd right now, right, as we take this.

So I would say pretty low like 15 okay say 15 you overestimated it it's only four percent and that's because it's just two weeks there's no way he's leaving in two weeks or at least you're not going to bet that he leaves in two weeks all right before june 16th so that gives us about a little less than two months now i don't again i'm not sure that i agree with this, but we're guessing the lines. I'm not giving you my opinion. I think that the people, the washed masses out there, I think that 70% of them think that he'll leave by June 16th.

No. 32%. Wow. They still think he's going to stick around. The money's there. The people are out there. There's money to be made. There is money to be made if you think Elon's leaving.

That's interesting. All right. And then does he make it before the year, January 1st, 2026? It's a tough one to figure out a payout on. What if he sort of just kind of dances around? Yeah, I don't really know how you say, oh, he's gone. Yeah, I guess 60%, whatever's left. Yeah, it's 48.

You got it. That was close enough. All right. There is one other, but it's not about his uh it's about how many kids will doge and elon musk claim there's missing gold at fort knox before may do you remember the fort knox thing we're gonna go to fort knox what happened i should have put that in my piece today that was yeah that was a real fuck up they missed that one they're gonna go to fort knox does it make you more or less curious about whether the gold is there or the fact that they haven't said anything about it?

The gold is there, dude. Come on. It was like three months ago that it was pictured. Steve Mnuchin didn't stage that shit. That was Cal Shee. Brought to you by Cal Shee. Gamble on the NBA playoffs and lose money on that like me instead. It's much better to use your money.

All right, buddy. Well, it's been a pleasure. Thank you for jumping around and talking about this stuff with us. And I'm sorry to all those Tesla investors out there, but honestly, you had a comment on this one. Blame me on.