Bulwark Takes - The Bulwark’s 2025 Predictions Are Put On Trial

Episode Date: December 25, 2025

Donald Trump’s first year back in office is in the books, but how accurate were The Bulwark predictions from this past year? Sam Stein is joined by “Judge” Mona Charen to put our 2025 forecasts under the gavel. From Trump’s health and pardons to government shutdowns, MAGA infighting, and political chaos, we revisit what we got right, what we got wrong, and what only deserved half a point.

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Hey, everyone, it's me, Sam Stey, managing editor at The Bullwark, and I am joined by Mona Sharon, who for today is Judge Mona Sharon. That's right. Let's hear the gavel, please. It's too small. We needed a bigger one. Whatever. We need more Bullwark subscribers so we can get a bigger gavel for next year. We should run a subscription plea that says, buy us a bigger gavel.

Mona is dressed like this because we hear the Bullwark believe in account. accountability more than anything else, honestly. And at the end of last year, we went through the staff, had them make a series of predictions about what would happen in the year 2025. And now we're going to look back at those predictions and make assessments about who was right, who was omniscient, and who was terribly wrong. And Mona's going to be the judge and the jury. Fair enough?

This should always be the way of the world. I should always be judge and jury. I feel like we already have. that you don't need to wear this costume you already judging me but besides i want to thank renita for uh for giving me the costume it's really good all right so let's get right into it we're going to go through these we're going to play videos again these were done in december of 2004 there's 10 of them we're going to play them one at a time and then mona's going to deliver a verdict and i'm going to say if i agree or disagree with mona's harsh sentences sentencing uh all right let's start uh this is at random

here we go. My dark horse prediction for 2025 is that Donald Trump has a health event. And I think that this is inevitable based on the actuarial tables to happen during his presidency because, you know, Donald Trump's machismo and his strength is such an important part of his political brand. This was always, I think, a vulnerability of his in this campaign. Because we live in the darkest timeline, we didn't. not end up in a situation where his fragility, as an elderly man, came to the four.

Okay. Okay. Mona, what's your verdict? I would give him half a point. Half a point because... Sorry, how many points can one get? Let's just set the standards here. Can you get only one?

That's a good point. Yeah, five. Five is the max. Okay, so he gets point five. He gets point five because... Trump did not have a health event, but he is declining, noticeably. His health is declining. That's clear.

He's got those things on his hands. He's stumbling a bit. He's falling asleep. He's falling asleep. Yeah, but that's not a health event. So I'm giving it half a point. I have rolled, bang. I would give Tim at least one point, but that's my, I think the hand stuff is, there's

something up there. And there's all this question about why he had an MRI. they're not really being forthcoming about it. We don't know. And because it's so clouded and uncertainty, I feel like that deserves at least one point. So we have a little bit of a disagreement. Okay. Okay. Fair enough. Let's play clip number two. So my dark horse prediction for 2025 is that Donald Trump is going to pardon New York mayor Eric Adams. Why would Donald Trump pardon a Democrat? The reason is Donald Trump is not fundamentally a Republican. Donald Trump is fundamentally a criminal. And so he loves criminals like white-collar criminals like himself.

He hates the deep state, the weaponized law enforcement. So he sympathizes with guys who have been convicted by law enforcement by the justice system. All right, Mona, what do we get? Five points. No, no, no. He did not get a pardon. Adams did not get a pardon. He got his case dismissed. No pardon. Oh, that's right. That's right. Oh, that's such a good. That's right. I had forgotten that. Still, I'm going to give him. You're giving me a five? I'm still giving him a five because it amounts to the same thing. And Will's prediction was so specific. And the rationale that he gave was spot on. So I am giving this a five. And by the way, nobody else in our crew got a five. This is outrageous grading. Will didn't even get it right. And you're giving him a five.

He came close to getting it right. I guess he may be out a point for the beard. No, I'm adding a point for the fact that he has my book behind his shoulder. Oh, shit. Hold on one second. See, this is the problem with the judicial system. You never know what biases the judge might have. I have your book somewhere here.

I know I have it. I'm going to find it. I definitely have it around it. Okay, fair enough. If that's all it takes. I'm going to find that book. All right. If that's what it takes, then fine.

He gets a five. All right, let's play clip three. A dark horse prediction for 2025 is that we are going to see a lot more mega infighting than certainly we saw in the first term and maybe even than people are expecting right now. I mean, I actually had forgotten about Eggers. So he also gets a five. That was good. Yeah.

Yeah. Oh, yeah. No, completely spot on. I mean, not exactly the craziest. He didn't really walk out and leave on that one, but I think the actual magnitude of the infighting is much bigger than I actually expected. So Edgar gets five on that way. And everyone knows I'm loath to give Edgar any credit whatsoever. So this is a real five. All right, let's play the next. My prediction for 2025 is that two members of Congress will get into a physical altercation that goes beyond what we've seen in the past couple of years. I think this will happen. or has a high likelihood of happening, because you recall when the 118th Congress started,

there was a dust up on the floor. Mike Rogers rushed at Matt Gates during the fight over the speakership, and he had to be held back. Okay. I don't know. Imaginative, colorful, and wrong. Zero points. Zero, yeah, he didn't get that one. I wish he was right.

We have not seen a. We have not seen a physical education yet. Give it time. Maybe it'll be in 2026. All right. Next one. My dark horse prediction for 2025 is that next year we're going to see finally the popping of the AI bubble. So as Ed Zittron points out in various installments, it's excellent newsletter.

AI companies have overpromised and underdelivered on the key capabilities. I, you know. So what's your rating, Sam Stein? So it's obviously a zero because it didn't happen, but I think it's going to happen. Yes, it's just a little premature. Little premature, I think. Do we give any credit? No.

No, I'm sorry. The prediction is just for 2025. So I'm afraid he gets a zero. But next year, he'll be right. It was a very Martin prediction, too, some obscure newsletter that he's been reading. and it's like who is that okay sounds right martin is very learned yes quite all right next i've got a downer prediction i'm uh i'm not sure uh how dark everybody else is getting here but if jvl's on this video it's probably pretty dark uh the uh my prediction is um that the we're going to see

a fairly nasty wave of social violence uh that we have not seen since the 1970s in this country uh and i i i think it's a combination of uh social media, bringing people together, and really, you know, the reaction to the killing of the United Healthcare CEO has been pretty disturbing to me. And I think it's probably not a great thing that the killer is being lionized in certain small, but still very vocal circles. All right. Okay. So I 100% agree with Sunny about the disturbing reaction to the United health care guys execution. But I still have to give it just maybe a point in half because there has been no, he talked

about a wave of social violence and compared it to what happened in the 70s. He was thinking of riots and huge kinds of things. And we have had political violence. There's no question. And we had the murder of Charlie Kirk. But I don't think that's what he was talking about. So that's why I say a point and a half. I would go with two and a half to three.

And it's weird to talk about this on a grave because it's so dark. But I think we're at, we're like at a place where it feels like obviously incredibly more tense. There is statistically more political violence. And then you can combine it, I think, with the immigration raid stuff. And you get to this place where there's real friction in the air and often violent confrontation. And I think that's sort of what Sunday was going to. So I'm going to give them a two and a half to three. Okay.

At the risk of being serious here for a second. and what is clearly a lighthearted video. I just have to say, Sam, that if there wasn't an outbreak of widespread violence following Charlie Kirk's murder, that suggests that there isn't as much of an appetite out there, that there isn't as much dry tinder as we might have feared. I hope you're right. Because that was really the sort of thing that in a different environment you could imagine igniting terrible violence, and it didn't, which,

I think is a really good sign. Okay. I'll take it. I appreciate that. I hadn't thought of it that way, but you're right. Okay. Next video. Let's keep rolling. In 2025, I think it's going to become more clear to everybody that Mark Cuban is going to be running for president. I think it's pretty clear that Mark Cuban is the best answer to Trump. He is a pro-democracy populist. He was vigorously anti-Trump over the course of the last.

four years. And like Trump, he comes with all sorts of built-in cultural memory. All right. Judge Mona. Well, it could be like Martin that he's just premature in this prediction. But I have to say that is a zero. I'll be generous and give him a 0.5 because maybe there's something there still, but I don't feel it. I'm just going to be nice and give him a point five. I'm like Harvard. I'm in great inflation.

Yeah, great inflation. All right. Here we go next. Okay. My prediction is that there will be a minimum of three different Republican House speakers. I think Johnson gets ousted early by President Elon being annoyed that Johnson wants to keep the government going. And we end up going through multiple cycles of speakers. Let's just stop in there.

Oh, my God. So I'm tempted to do my Sarah imitation, which is... Can we go negative? Okay. Okay. Sarah Longwell gets a big fad zero. Now, points for imagination. We got to go negative.

We got to docker points. Oh, my God. That was so wrong. That was really, really wrong. Actually, we cut it off, but she even went on to say that one of the three speakers was going to be somebody from outside the Congress itself because you know they're allowed to do that. Somebody, she said, like Vivek Ramoswamy.

So she, yeah, she was very bold as Sarah is, but zero. I admire the boldness. A little bit disconcerning that her and JVL and our flagship commentaries are completely off on this stuff. But we'll put that aside. All right. Who's next? My 2025 prediction is don't get too comfortable with all of these cabinet choices that Trump has made because there are going to. to be firings and there are going to be resignations before the end of the year.

Trump is sort of like our Hugo Chavez. Chavez was the strong man leader of Venezuela. Okay, cut her off. We can cut off. Hold on. I'm looking up. I want to look this up. Matt Gates withdrew in November 2024.

So we had passed that point. Okay. Yep. So I don't know who that person is. Yeah, terrible. That's a zero. I will say, that was an easy, I would have said the exact same thing. It would have been a simple guess.

And yet, here we are wrong. Yeah. Has there been a single one? I mean, who is the guy who was reassigned to UN ambassador? Was he? Well, yeah. Mike Waltz. And he did reassign, you know, at least Stefanic, but, you know.

She wasn't reassigned. She was just told to withdraw. Yeah, this really has not been. any fires. No, no, they decided. They made it. They made a decision. They weren't going to have heads roll like the first term. So I was wrong. All right. Well, I'm going to give you, I'm, look, I'm giving you five points just because I want to, I want goodwill with the judge for when I come up, okay? All right. Let's go. Next. I predict the government will shut down. Again, not going on much on a limb here. Tightly divided house. Trump shut down the government when he was

president for first time. But I think this time around it's going to be over something crazy and weird. Like, you know, we're funding too much, you know, biomedical research or something like that. And everyone's like, why would you shut down the government over this? And Trump will, you know, has some excuse. And we will be in it for quite a bit of time because right now, no one really seems to be all that committed to keeping the government open on the certain side of the aisle. Mauna, would you like me to give you some lotto numbers as well? Am I am I omniscient? Do I, do I predict this or what?

I know you're about to dock me. I know you're about to dock me, but go ahead. Are you, are you straining yourself, patting yourself on the back there? Well done, Sam. Yeah. So, yeah, no, here's the thing. Okay. Bring it.

I give you a one and a half to, I give you two points on this one. Two points. Two points. Here's why. 2.5? Oh, my God. Here's why. Oh, sorry. I'm my gavel. Your eminence. Go ahead. So, not a bold prediction to predict, as you said yourself, you know, to predict government shutdown. But you did not predict that it was going to be the Democrats who would be taking the lead. That's fine. But the reason I gave you two points is that you very perspicuaciously predicted that there was going to be something about cutting back on medical research.

which, honestly, they did do with Doge and all that, and you saw that coming. So I give that the two points for your answer. But there you are. I know. It's funny to think about it because at the time, Doge hadn't come into effect and there was no NIH cuts or anything like that. So I will give myself some credit for that. You are right. I did get the instigator wrong.

I was right on how long I said it was going to be very long when it was the longest ever. You were right. So in some ways, I get a five. I give myself a five. By the way, yeah. I would never in a million years have predicted that it was going to be the Democrats who would do it. I mean, that didn't become clear until much later. Yeah.

Yeah, that's a good point. I would not have predicted it. But yeah, okay. All right, I'm really excited to see, that was our last one. I'm really excited to see the staff's 2026 predictions. I already put mine in. I'm not going to spoil it. People can watch that video.

But we're going to have to do this again a year from now. All right. Keep the judge's costume. Keep the gavel. All right. I want to chair. Thank you so much for doing this. I appreciate it.