Bulwark Takes - Trump Orders Abbott To Gerrymander Texas?! (w/ John Bisognano)

Episode Date: July 11, 2025

Texas Governor Greg Abbott just called a surprise special legislative session with a big-ticket item: redrawing the state’s congressional maps. Why now? And why does it matter? Lauren Egan sits down with John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, to unpack the high-stakes political motives behind this move. With pressure from Donald Trump’s political team, the Texas GOP is pushing to redraw districts that could reshape control of the House in 2026 and beyond.

When you think about businesses that are selling through the roof, all birds, skims, sure, you think about a great product, a cool brand, and brilliant marketing. But an often overlooked secret is actually the businesses behind the business making selling and for the shoppers buying simple. For millions of businesses, that business is Shopify. Nobody does selling better than Shopify, home of the number one checkout on the planet. And the not-so-secret secret, with ShopPay, that boosts conversions up to 50%, meaning way less carts going abandoned and way more sales going...

So if you're into growing your business, your commerce platform better be ready to sell wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling on the web, in your store, in their feed, and everywhere in between. Businesses that sell more sell on Shopify. Upgrade your business and get the same checkout Skims uses. Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com slash Audioboom. All lowercase. Go to Shopify.com slash Audioboom to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com slash

audio boom. Hey guys, it's Lauren Egan here at The Bullwork and I'm here today to talk to you guys about Texas. Governor Greg Abbott just called a special legislative session in the state and he's got a long list of agenda items, but part of that list is a request to redraw the state's congressional districts. And I know that that probably sounds wonky and it is, but it's also incredibly consequential to which party controls the house in 2026 and beyond that too. So I have got John Bizzignano here today with me. And John is the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. So John, you know this stuff really well. You are

an expert on redistricting and thanks for being here with us and helping us make sense of what's going on. Thank you for talking about it. I know it is a wonky issue. It is important. We're here to explain that to everyone. Yes. Okay. So as I understand it, typically congressional maps are drawn at the start of each decade after a new census comes out. It's obviously 2025. We are in the middle of a decade. And I think an important thing to point out to people up top about this is there's been a lot of reporting out there, especially from the New York Times, about how Donald Trump and his political team have been really fixated on the Texas map,

and they've been putting pressure on Governor Abbott and Republicans in the state to call this special session and to redraw the maps. And obviously, you know, they're worried about holding on to their majority in the House in 2026. So to me, this seems incredibly politically motivated. And I'm curious for you as someone who's been studying this for a really long time, what your initial reaction was

when you heard that Abbott was calling this special session and what you make of the, you know, just like blatant political motivations to this. Yeah, I think your intuition is right. And the truth is, we have to be crystal clear about what this is. And the White House and Donald Trump are trying to fix the 2026 election now. And in July of the year before the election happens,

they're trying to gerrymander a state to an absurd degree to steal seats because we all have to remember this comes on the heels of them passing probably the least popular bill of my lifetime at least that I've seen go through Congress. If you look at the polling around the big, beautiful bill act, it's horrific. And it's horrific because from Democrats and Republicans alike, it's like, nobody likes this bill. Nobody likes where this is headed. And they know that. And so their only path to success in achieve and continuing to hold on to power in the US House is to jury mandir states as much as they possibly can in places that, you know, it's not what the people want. It's not what the people deserve. And that's the reality of what we're facing down in Texas over the next two months. So you use the word steal. And I think there'll be people that are listening to this that

think that that might be, you know, blowing out a proportion that that might be hyperbolic because Republicans do control the state legislature in Texas. And he governor Abbott can call this special legislative session. So how are you thinking, thinking through that? And can you walk us through why you were used the word steal? Of course, and I'm comfortable with that word. The truth, we have been in litigation over the current Texas maps for three years in federal court. Because I believe the Texas maps currently are gerrymandered.

And they are. And we just wrapped up a hearing, I think it was about a month ago. And I feel very good about that case, right? There's a current case on these maps saying they are gerrymandered using the Voting Rights Act, under the Voting Rights Act. Now, what they're trying to do is gerrymander on top of that.

They're gonna try and take the small amount of representation that frankly people of color in Texas, but notably democratic and progressive people in Texas have, which has already diminished and diminish it even further. So no, I don't believe that because Texas legislature has gerrymandered themselves into very safe, comfortable seats, that they should have the right to take away people's right to vote, and the power and impact of that vote into the future. And so I feel very comfortable saying they're stealing seats. And when they currently have a house margin of three,

and they just passed the most horrific bill we've seen in decades, yeah, I understand why they're scared. If, if they can't change the, what they believe to fit into what the American people actually want, they're just going to try and steal power that is unwarranted and un-given. What tools do Democrats realistically have here to push

back against this aside from like, you know, winning more governorships and state legislature races, which cannot happen before 2026. And as you just mentioned, they still run into gerrymandering issues there. So yeah, like what, what tools do they have? There's a whole host of tools that our organization implements and employs. You know, anybody can go to denmaridistricting.com to find out more about our organizational work. Let's talk about Texas, because the question being very broad and there's a lot of different types of work

we could do over time. In Texas, people need to begin calling their state legislators, and we need to amplify the reality of this. I think it's very clear, and many people didn't believe Abbott would actually put redistricting on the docket. And he did yesterday. So yesterday changed a lot. And I think some people saw the horrific flood in Texas and thought, wow, our executive leadership should be focused on emergency response and not political theft and political gain and gerrymandering our state at a time

when we're hurting and need support. So now that he has formally put it on the agenda, as of yesterday, we know that they're gonna try and do it. And so people need to really, anyone in Texas should be calling their state legislator, whether that's a Republican or a Democrat, just trying to make it clear that they don't want this state to be gerrymandered to oblivion. No one wants this, with the exception of a Republican caucus in the US House that is trying to hold on

to every last grasp of control. Yeah. And, you know, to your point about how people weren't totally sure whether or not Abbott was ultimately going to do this. What does that mean to you? Or what do you make of that? What does that say about the state of politics right now and sort of the grip that Trump has on the Republican Party that, you know, the president can apparently just put some pressure on a state like this.

And I mean, you know, that, as we've been discussing, that could easily determine the outcome of the house. It's extremely clear to me and should be clear to anyone that they are petrified of elections in 2026, right? They are very nervous about facing the people with the product that they've put forward so far. And I understand why. far. And I understand why. And your your point about Trump himself having ironclad control over the individuals in these states is true. And we've heard from a number of, you know, rumors from people in Texas that many Republicans don't want to do this. Like, this is a lot of work for people. And we can get into the realities of what a map would look like. They're pretty stark, but it's not really great for some of these Republican incumbents

either. There's a lot of complicated endeavors that are about to happen if they do pick up the pen and start redrawing. It's clear that Trump is in control and simply, as you noted, told Abbott and or Texas legislators, this is what's going to happen. We need it so that we don't lose the house. And frankly, I don't have to face probably a whole host of investigations and I get to keep doing whatever I want.

Right? Well, what about it is complicated for Republicans? I mean, I know that I think some members of the Texas delegation have said, you know, sort of on background quotes to reporters that, hey, we actually don't think that this is the best idea because if it's a big wave election, like we could actually make ourselves more vulnerable. So is that kind of like what you're getting at or how is this actually going to play out for them?

Yeah. Let me be clear about a few things. One, the data that I assume we haven't seen maps yet. So that's the first point, right? I have not seen a map that they've proposed. There are a billion rumors in the state, as you can imagine, different people saying different things and different legislators saying different things. So we will wait to see what the maps do look like that they're theorizing about, and then we'll have deeper perspectives. But some of the rumors are true. There's a few important things to keep in mind.

One is Texas is changing so fast. And this is something we know. This is a census data. It's been changing for two decades. It's not, I mean, it's been changing for longer, but it's been changing really dramatically for two decades. So when you look at the state's population shifts and growth, they're probably going to be working on data from the 2020 census. I don't know exactly how they're going to be able to overlay

new districts over different changing populations. And Texas is growing, no one will refute that. But where Texas is growing is really important because Texas is growing in communities of color and in urban areas. It is not growing in the rural areas. So as they try and make adjustments to maps that already exist, they may well be drawing themselves into places where there are pretty significant changes in population

from what they think there are. And those voters aren't necessarily gonna vote the way that they think they will. Especially a lot of this, and it's getting into the weeds a little bit, but a lot of, when you look at redistricting map stuff, it depends on which data set you're using. So you're looking at maybe Harris-Trump in 2024,

or are you looking at congressional election data from before that, or different algorithms? I'm not breaking news that Harris didn't perform great in Texas compared to Trump. So if you're looking at data like that, you may well be putting yourself in a position where you're not fully understanding what the future of that state looks like. Yeah, that's really interesting. I hadn't even really fully thought through that.

Yeah, that they're going to be working with old data. And we know so many people moved there during COVID and the population has just kind of popped off recently. So they're kind of like doing this blind in a way. Like, yeah, that could be messy. One more point on this before we jump the, the act of redrawing a lot of these maps, if you're gonna gerrymander, you know, what, let's say they gerrymander two Democrats into the same district and they really try and pack as many people of color into one district in, I don't know, Houston or something. The Republicans around that district,

their districts are gonna get more progressive. Those districts are not gonna stay at the absurd level of conservative voters that they currently are. And a lot of these folks, you have to remember, have been voting in these districts. They have voting records. They've been living in these districts as extremely conservative. Some of the country's most conservative people

over the course of decades. And now they're going to shift to a place where maybe instead of having like only 35% Democratic district, you have like a 47% Democratic district and sure you have a chance to win it, but that's going to complicate your primary. Frankly, that's going to complicate who you are. You've lived your life as like a complete flame throwing Republican conservative your whole life. And now you're going to be put in charge of representing a significantly more moderate district. It's going to, it's very complicated. And I just want people to fully understand the breadth of complication around what some of these members are going to need to understand for themselves. How long does this process typically take? And, you know, like,

when do they have to have these maps done by? So the special session, every special session in Texas is 30 days. And it was called for July 21st. So that should happen between the 21st and the 21st of July and August. I would anticipate us starting to see drafts of maps pretty soon. Usually, I'm sure someone already has them, Republicans somewhere already have drafts that they've been looking at, but I would anticipate starting the process of seeing some of this stuff soon and it has to be done within the next month and a half. Nicole Zalman Okay. Interesting. So we could in just, yeah, six weeks from now be looking at like an entirely different midterm cycle, basically, in Texas. I assume that there will be legal challenges, but what's, I mean, should we just

kind of bank on the fact that there will be new maps in 2026 in Texas or what is sort of that legal road ahead look like? There will, I feel like undoubtedly be legal challenges. And as I've noted, we've been in, we've been in the court with Texas for the past three years. And so I feel very comfortable saying, and there's very high likelihood that there's a legal challenge to any map that comes out of this process if any of them are like the rumors that they've been putting forward.

I don't know. It depends. I wish I could say how quickly or slowly the courts will move, but I feel like I don't have the ability to know that. Yeah. No, that makes sense. There is some precedent for this, right? We saw this in North Carolina last year.

Can you write last year? Yeah, ahead of the 2024 election. Can you talk to us about that? And I mean, in many ways, the Republicans majority right now is in thanks to the fact that North Carolina did something similar. Do you think that this is just like a new normal in a way? Like Republicans are just going to kind of keep using this as a tool and a strategy to try and keep control of the house. I think we are living in an era of perpetual redistricting.

That's just simply true now. We haven't met people that have gone to the ballot and voted in a US house election have not voted in the same one for 12 years. The maps have changed every year in some capacity, one state or another. North Carolina is different. They've all been slightly different. North Carolina was court mandated. It was absurd, but it was court mandated that they changed the maps. The legislature didn't need to jury mandir them, but they did. the legislature didn't need to jury mando them, but they did. But Texas has no mandate. Aside from what Governor Abbott cited in his proclamation yesterday, a Department of Justice letter that they received two days ago, that is truly bizarre and should be explored, I think, by folks that

are interested. It's Department of Justice letter that cites a number of cases referencing coalition districts, which is essentially the act of combining or the act of creating a district in which you're trying to get above 50% minority population, but not necessarily just of one racial minority. They basically said that those are unconstitutional, which doesn't make any sense because they're almost every district in this country has a number of races in it. It's like there's no, it's a truly bizarre letter that I find not to have any legal validity or grounds. And it furthers the reality that I think it's clear we're looking at an environment in which, I don't know, people at the White House are sitting around a table and said, Hey, we got a gerrymandered Texas.

Can somebody tell DOJ to find a way to send a letter? It's not written with legal guidance. It's written as though someone said, hey, can you just send a letter? I don't really care what it says. And it should just say that they have to redraw their maps and Abbott will use it as a crutch. And I think it's kind of profound to realize

that Abbott needed that crutch, even though he, you know, if you're gonna be scared of the voters, if you're gonna be scared to go to the ballot box, you're gonna be scared of your party's ideas, you think you're not gonna do well in an election, you know, at least be a coward in public. Don't be a coward and hide behind some bizarre Department of Justice letter.

Is there anything else that's keeping you up at night about Texas or the state of redistricting going into this midterm election? There are other states that everyone should keep their eyes out and focused on. I'd be happy to talk about them anytime, but just to run down the list. Ohio. Yeah, okay. Yeah. Yeah.

Ohio, for example, Ohio is a court mandated to redraw. They have, or it's constitutionally mandated. They have to redraw. Again, this is a court mandated to redraw. They have or it's constitutionally mandated. They have to redraw. Again, this is what makes Texas kind of bizarre. There's no law in Texas says they can't redraw right now, but they don't need to. No one's asking them to aside from this bizarre DOJ letter that exists.

So Ohio does need to redraw unclear how they're going to approach that redraw. You know, one thing of note is the governor in that state has consistently tried to talk about his thoughts that gerrymandering is bad and his perspective that gerrymandering should not exist, even though in some capacity he voted for these maps, he always showed regret. So it'll be interesting to see how the governor acts in his capacity in Ohio. And a few other places to note, there's an existing state Supreme Court case in Florida that's seeking relief of a different district in Northern Florida.

And then there's an existing state Supreme Court case in Utah seeking relief that would justify a Salt Lake based seat. If you want to talk about gerrymandering, what Republicans did in Utah was basically create a pizza out of Salt Lake City. And thus the people of Salt Lake City as a city don't have proper representation. Well, I feel like there is a never ending list of gerrymandering conversations we could have unfortunately, but would love to have you back on. Let's definitely hop back on when these maps actually do come out and you can explain them

to us and help us make sense of them. John, thanks so much for making some time and we'll see you soon. See you soon. Love to. Thank you. Anytime. When you think about businesses that are selling through the roof, all birds, skims, sure, you think about a great product, a cool brand, and brilliant marketing, but an often overlooked secret is actually the businesses behind the business,

making selling, and for the shoppers buying, simple. For millions of businesses, that business is Shopify. Nobody does selling better than Shopify, home of the number one checkout on the planet. And the not-so-secret secret, with ShopPay, that boosts conversions up to 50%, meaning way less carts going abandoned and way more sales going... So if you're into growing your business, your commerce platform better be ready to sell wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling on the web, in your store, in their feed,

and everywhere in between. Businesses that sell more, sell on Shopify. Upgrade your business and get the same checkout Skims uses. Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com slash audio boom. All lowercase. Go to Shopify.com slash audio boom to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com slash audio boom.