Bulwark Takes - Trump’s Nightmare Poll as Budget Bill is Big Loser

Episode Date: June 10, 2025

Tim Miller breaks down the new polling from Economist/YouGov revealing widespread opposition to Trump’s proposed “big beautiful” budget, including among key Republican groups. See the full polling data here

Hey guys, we got a new poll from Economist and YouGov, which is a poll-pocalypse for the BBB, whatever we're calling it these days, the big fuggly turd. It is an absolute disaster for Republicans. It shouldn't be a surprise. We've been talking about it on here. This bill is not popular. The components are not popular. It's unclear who even likes it.

And now here's some data to prove it. But before I go into some of the details on this data, I just want to talk a little bit about my policy, about talking about polls on this page, because we're very far away from midterms. And sometimes I get asked to respond to polls and I say, I don't care. And that annoys Sarah. And that's okay, you know, because Sarah is still very focused on the focus groups and the polls. And I honor and appreciate that. But my view is kind of like, we're far away from elections. There's a lot of substance for us to worry about right now. From to get me to, you know, get my dander up over Trump being up three

points or down three points in a poll that has margin of error or six points. I just ain't going to do it. And so I'm only going to do poll content for you guys. If there is something that is overwhelming in what its verdict is, either in opposition to what the administration is doing or otherwise. So that is what is the case here. Would not be talking about it if it was not for the fact that it's overwhelming. I mean, these guys at Economist YouGov, they could be off by, and Seltzer numbers, ooh,

sorry. of economists you go, they could be off by, and Seltzer numbers, sorry, they could be off by 15 points, and it would still be a disaster for the pushers of the BBB. So here it is. And for folks who just, just for context, we're going to be coming in clean. This, you know, big fugly bill is the extension of the Trump tax cuts on top of some other tax cuts, no tax on tips, some other things, plus the Medicaid cuts, plus kind of a grab bag of other stuff, plus the snap cuts. So that's basically the core of it. Cutting taxes, most of the folks on the top, cutting services and healthcare and food benefits for people towards the bottom. So not surprising that that's unpopular, but let's look at the numbers. First, related to the Musk-Trump feud, do you agree or disagree with the statement from

Elon Musk about the budget? It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to 2.5 trillion and burden American citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt. The commission wisdom is people don't care about debt, but here it is, 56% agree with that, only 17 percent disagree. The only number there, it looks like Trump voters, 31 percent of Trump voters disagree, which is not very many. Overwhelming among liberal voters, overwhelming among Democrats, overwhelming among upper

scale voters. I think that shows that this bill is unpopular. It's going to be unpopular with working class voters because of the cuts and more upper middle class voters over to the cuts and more upper middle class voters over to the debt issues. So there you go. On the Musk Trump feud, at least when it comes to the budget deficit, the people are siding with Musk. And so an overall answer, from what you know about it, do you support or oppose President Trump's proposed budget? I like that framing of this question because it puts Trump's name in there, right? And

so it's like for people, if you just ask, do you support or oppose the congressional reconciliation bill? A lot of people might not be sure if they know what they're talking about. Most people get it. Like what Trump is trying to push through as far as the budget, do you support or oppose it? Only 30% support, 50% oppose. Biggest groups on oppose, black voters 61 61% against. Harris voters, 89% against.

Liberals, 88%. Dems, 82%. On income, it's pretty even across the board actually, if you look at income. Among the support, 30% support. It's not above 38% among any group except Republicans and Trump voters. There's no subgroup demographically that has it at 40%. So that is just a catastrophe. And how do you put together a bill like this that nobody likes? And even the Trump supporters, only 68% of them support. That is just an utter, utter nightmare. 19% of Trump supporters oppose it. One in five Trump voters oppose the Trump budget with his name in it. That is astonishing. Interesting among Trump voters, not that interesting really. Do you side with Trump or Musk? 73, Trump, 7% Musk. Among Republicans,

74, Trump, 6. So Trump is winning the feud overall, even though voters agree with Musk, basically on the specifics of the bill. So there you go. That is the latest from our friends at The Economist and YouGov. We will put a link here in the show notes for other cross tab divers like me that want to look through it. But to me, there are just a couple of final political takeaways here. One, the Democrats have to be on their front foot on this. I know I've said before, the one area where I disagree is this, I don't necessarily think that means they have to talk about nothing else. They have to pivot every question about Los Angeles into a question about the BBB. That's not real. It's not authentic. But look for every opportunity possible to raise

the salience of this issue. Pick fights on this issue, go into your districts and pick fights on this issue, go into Fox and pick fights on this issue, because even there's some weakness even among Republicans. That is the advice to Democrats. The other thing is senators and voters call your senators. This thing is probably going to pass just out of inertia. I've said that from the start, but it's not a hundred percent. Crazier things have happened. And we've seen Terry Salbert in shots at the end of the NBA playoff games. Crazier things have happened. And there is a decent group of Republican senators, Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley,

that have issues. So call your senators, call the Republican senators. If Johnson, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley that have issues. So call your senators, call the Republican senators. If you're down here in Louisiana, call Bill Cassidy. Shame him about RFK, but also tell him to oppose this disaster of a bill. And you never know what happens. It'll be interesting to see what happens also when the Senate makes some changes, whether it goes back to the House and creates some trouble in the House. So I think that there is significant trouble ahead on this bill. I think it's a loser. It's going to hurt these guys in the midterms. And man, it's really something that this is the one piece of legislation these guys want

to jam through. So that's the latest 30, 50, 20 points underwater. Total nightmare. We'll be back here soon with any relevant breaking news for you guys. And we'll be seeing you then.