Bulwark Takes - Trump's Tariff Math Is Bonkers, & What's His Greenland Endgame?

Episode Date: April 3, 2025

JVL, Will Saletan and Andrew Egger break down how flawed President Donald Trump's new tariffs are. Plus, what's Trump's endgame with Greenland, and what will it turn NATO into?

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This is The Bulwark. I'm JVL here with my colleagues, Andrew Egger and Will Salatan. And this is the morning after Liberation Day. The tariffs are coming in good and hard and the markets are reacting. The woke socialist markets don't seem to appreciate the brilliance of Trump's beautiful, very strong tariffs. Andrew, I mean, putting aside whatever ideological biases you might have, just as a matter of conception, are these tariffs worked out with a very high degree of specificity and some real intelligence and forethought. You went digging into these today. Yeah. So this is a we've all been kind of waiting in suspense,

kind of on tenor hooks. The White House has been teasing Liberation Day when we're going to roll out all these tariffs for quite some time. But it was sitting on the details. It was saying, you know, we're going to have a bunch of tariffs. We wonder what they're going to look like. Nobody knows. But they're they're coming at 4 p.m. and they're going into effect at midnight. The White House rolls them out at 4 p.m. yesterday. President Trump gets up to speak at the White House. It's kind of amazing. You can what you could watch it happen on CNBC. They had President Trump on the left and they had a stock ticker on the right. And he started talking. He started holding up charts and the arrow started pointing straight down. I mean, like, I've never seen anything like it in

my life. But what, I mean, so they come out with these tariffs, it's gigantic tariffs on all these countries, basically every, you know, country after country after country after country, along with like a 10% flat rate, but then with these like specific tariffs, in theory geared toward these different countries. Everyone starts looking at these numbers, trying in theory, geared toward these different countries. Everyone starts looking at these numbers, trying to wrap their heads around them, trying to figure out what's going on. The White House has billed these. According to what they say, these are reciprocal tariffs,

which is like their political winner, they think. There may be a lot of people out there who aren't pro-tariff in general, but they think, okay, if other countries have tariffs on us, maybe it's reasonable that we should have tariffs on them as well. So that's what the White House is calling these things, reciprocal tariffs. But as people start crunching the numbers, just in a very basic way, they don't make sense at all, according to that metric. There are countries that have a lot of tariffs on us that don't have a whole lot of tariffs, according to these new trade policies. There are countries that don't have very many tariffs on us that have massive tariffs according to these trade policies. Smarter math minds than I quickly hit upon

what's actually happening here, which is literally just that the Trump administration has taken the countries with whom we have a large trade deficit giving and they have slapped tariffs, reciprocal tariffs on those countries essentially in ratio to in relation to how large that trade deficit is. There's a small, I mean, the formula is literally exports minus imports divided by total imports. I mean, it's and the White House has acknowledged this. They've said, they've said, that's absolutely not what we're doing. Here's our math. And then people have looked at the math and it's a very simple equation that says exports minus imports divided by imports. I mean, it's, it's, we're, we're so through the looking glass here. And like, just, I'm, I'm, I'm ranting, like just to quickly describe what that means. If we buy a lot of

things from a country, but they don't buy a lot of things from us, we have a big tariff on them now, just starting now, starting immediately, starting at midnight last night. If we buy a lot of coffee from Indonesia, but Indonesia doesn't buy a lot of copies from us, surprise, American importers now have to pay big tariffs to import that coffee from Indonesia. And that's just, I mean, and that's economy-wide, with a very, very few number of exceptions, including Russia, for some insane reason. It doesn't happen with Russia, but basically every other place in the entire world, this is the way it's going to operate now. So yeah, that's kind of where we're at. And again,

this is like, we're right at the opening bell as we're recording this. Who knows what's going to happen today in the markets? But I mean, you could watch the after hours trading literally drop off a cliff as Trump was speaking yesterday. And that was before we even figured out how stupid the math was on all this stuff. So that's where we're at. Will, do you think this is economic illiteracy or do you think it's malice? Not malice. It's not malice. No, no. So JBL, you and I are old enough to remember the idea of the stupid party and the evil party. The Republicans said the Democrats were stupid. The Democrats said the Republicans were evil. That has all shifted. We've had a realignment. It's flipped around, right? We've had a realignment of stupid and evil. Totally true. Yep. So this is a

very simple situation that we find ourselves in as America and now the world. The Republican Party is following Donald Trump. Donald Trump is stupid. He is a very stupid man. As Andrew just detailed immaculately, Donald Trump doesn't understand this very woke discipline called economics, right? And Andrew just laid out what the consequences are going to be. So we have a stupid man doing a very stupid policy, coming into office, people were unhappy with inflation, Donald Trump's ideas. How about if I break everything? How about if I chainsaw the government? How about if I start trade wars with, what is it, 180 countries, right? The entire world. I'm going to attack the entire world. And we have a party of cowards following this idiot. So the consequences are already disastrous, as Andrew just out

detailed from the numbers. And this is the world that we're living in now. We have a party that is stupid and is breaking everything. And we're just going to see the consequences for the next two years and possibly the next four. Do you guys think he sticks with this? I mean, I'm of like two different minds. The first is that, yes, because creating economic calamity could actually help with long term goals for authoritarianism in a weird way. But the other is that these could be seen as, and this is something, Andrew, you and I have been talking about for a year at least, tariffs are a means of controlling the business community.

And you do the tariffs, and then you force business leaders in the U.S. to come and grovel to them in order to try to get exemptions. So maybe he could cause short-term shock and then, as American businesses knuckle under him, just keep doling out exemptions after exemptions until he eventually declares victory. I don't know. What do you, like, I guess this is my real question. What is the end game? Yeah, yeah. I mean, to a certain extent, this is unstoppable force meets immovable object, right? Because there's there are different impulses that are like bedrock impulses for Donald Trump's id that kind of pull in opposite directions here. There's the there's the desire

to have the personal control to be the guy guy in the seat who the various business leaders and CEOs have to come to as supplicants, as you just described. He loves that. I mean, that is what he has always talked about as like how he thinks the trade policy should work is that we put all these tariffs on and then, you know, the good companies that come will help them out a little bit if they happen to, if anybody just so happens to be hurt by any of this. And so it'll be fine. It'll be like a win-win thing. Obviously, the part that goes unsaid there is the people he turns away at the door. But even beyond, I mean, even at a more fundamental level than that, this is just the way Donald Trump has always thought about tariffs, about trade policy, before he ever even wanted to

run for president, before he was ever even the guy in the chair who was going to be making these decisions. He just has long held these two insane beliefs. One, that tariffs are lossless for the country that puts them into effect, that you are just enriching yourself single biggest sign that your economy is not healthy, that you're failing. If you're buying more goods from other countries than other countries are buying from you, you're just losing. You are in a bad place. And these are just – I mean, like, he has changed his positions on every other thing. But this is like the one thing that has been a constant through line for him for decades going back to before he even really got involved in politics and before he even had the authoritarian type reasons for wanting to keep these things on that you mentioned

and he could change his mind I mean like Liam Donovan likes to say that Trump's superpower is he can always declare victory right like he could get the stock market could crash for three days nothing could change he could get some fig leaf face saving measure from from a couple countries, he could say we did it guys, mission accomplished, we won the trade war. And plenty of people would kind of clap along like seals like that's that's a good

thing for Trump. But also they want him to turn them off, right? Right, right, right. Everything playing along, they'll do it. Right, because they want him to turn it off. right? Right, right, right. So if the price is playing along, they'll do it. Right, right. Because they want him to turn it off. And if the price is just looking dumb while they play along, they're willing to do that. Right. But everything he's saying so far seems to indicate

that he is in this for the long haul. He's telling people to brace for a little bit of pain. He's posting about how, you know, the operation was a success. The patient lived. And now, you know, we're set. We're gold and we're going. He's talking about how the Great Depression, which was in part caused by insane U.S. tariffs that were put in place at that time. He's out here talking about yesterday how we would not have had a Great Depression if

we'd kept the tariffs in place. I'm like stumbling over my words now because it's like astonishing. But like, so the only thing that cuts the other way is that Trump is also an animal instinct when it comes to red line bad, right? Line on, graph points down is bad. So in theory, you could imagine a situation where he just sees that red line pointing down hard enough for long enough that he's like, you know, I've actually had a—he wouldn't say he'd had a change of heart. He would just declare victory for that reason and change course. But I don't know. I mean, like that's, again, it's these warring animal impulses inside the guy that I guess are going to control the entire world economy from now on, whichever wolf happens to win,

whichever shoulder angel he happens to listen to is going to be the, it's going to be whether we prosper or don't. So that's cool. That's a cool place to be. So, and this, the reason we want to do the three of us here is because this actually ties perfectly to something bill bill will just wrote about uh about trump's greenland policy and will you you made a connection which is one of these things that once you see it, you can't unsee it. That Trump treats Greenland and Denmark the way it's like the Access Hollywood tape. You know, it's like when you're when you're a star, when you're a superpower, they'll

let you do it. You just move on Greenland like a bitch. And it's all it. It's the same thing as the tariffs. It's like it is all the same. Sociopathy, no? Yeah, it's well the the terrace is a little bit different i'll explain the greenland thing in it first the trump's you know i'm watching trump and we're all watching trump with this insane obsession he's got the panama canal he's got canada he wants to do the condos in gaza he's got greenland but the greenland

thing he will not let go of and they they're like, it's beyond Canada. They're like constantly threatening. We might have to use military force. We hope it doesn't come to that. And there's a country that currently possesses Greenland. It's called Denmark. It's like, if you guys know, if you had asked a decade ago, who will the United States go to war with?

Canada and Denmark might have been kind of near the bottom of the list. But somehow this guy, this idiot who's declared war on 180 countries economically is threatening like an actual war against a couple of our of our neighbors and allies. That the debt that the Denmark and Greenland thing is so bizarre because Trump's been, he went at this in his first term. And there's a whole dynamic where the prime minister of Denmark is a woman. And Trump said she blew him off when he tried to, when he said, I want your, you know, I want Greenland. Off. Yeah. And like, you can't talk to me that way. It sounds weird if you don't say off.

That's it. He's, you know, you can't talk to me that way. He's like some jilted guy who came on to her. So she says no to him. First of all, she says the people of Greenland, like they're going to make their own decision. It's an autonomy thing. Trump doesn't understand autonomy.

Trump's whole history as a predator is like, I'm taking you. I want you. I will literally grab you by the hem, right? And there's a whole history. The weirdest thing, guys, when J.D. Vance went to Greenland on Friday, which JBL, you wrote about this too. I'm watching him and I'm like, there's something really weird about this. Greenland said, we don't want to be

American. Denmark said, hey, don't mess with our territory, Green, territory, Greenland. That's, that belongs to us for now, and let them decide. And Vance's message to them is like, he goes in there with the talking point, hey, you people in Greenland, Denmark's not treating you right, come with us. I mean, Denmark's an American ally, a NATO ally, and Vance is basically trying to take them, from them and from Denmark. And I'm like, where have I seen this before? And I'm remembering all the stories that women have told about Donald Trump, A, grabbing them without their consent, B, not taking no for an answer, which is obviously happening in Greenland, and C, not caring. The woman says, in some of these cases, my boyfriend is literally right there. And Trump's attitude is, I don't care. So he doesn't care that Green

Mark is A, its own place, B, a territory of Denmark. He's just intending to take it. And the only way to stop this guy, both in the economic realm and in the military realm, is to say no, right? It is to stand up to him. And not enough people are doing that. Hopefully that starts now. So what do you, what do you guys think the end game is on greenland i have been very very uh i i've been very unwilling to believe that he means any of it on greenland and uh you know like him not meaning it doesn't mitigate the international consequences. Like, you know, just just the fact of doing this, I think, has driven a stake through the heart of

NATO. But on the other hand, I do think this is just part of his flood the zone. But maybe not. I mean, I really he's he seems very committed to the bit. Andrew, what do you what do you think his Greenland endgame is? I'm so hesitant to speculate on a thing like this. But I mean, it does seem as though a thing that we have learned about Trump is that he never allows the ratchet to turn backward, right? I mean, he will get the bit in his teeth for something like this. And I mean, like, yes, A, it sounds insane to say Donald Trump is going to declare war on a NATO ally in order to seize sovereign territory

that does not belong to us. And you talk about driving a stake through the heart of NATO. That would end NATO. I mean, it would just be over even as a functional matter. I guess the rest of NATO would be obligated to go to war with us in that case. Like, that sounds insane to say. I'm not saying it. At the same time, it is insane, it's factually insane to say Donald Trump will at some point find the argument

plausible that he has to bow to an international order in any way rather than get a thing that he wants. So I think it is, I mean, like, that's never happened. It just doesn't happen. It hasn't happened. It hasn't happened. It didn't happen when he got when he lost the 2020 election. That was a thing that a lot of people were like, well, of course, that's not I mean, of course, that is a real hard line in the sand, where he's not gonna, for instance, provoke an army of his people to come and try to kill his vice president and and and, you know, reinstall him by force. Well, that kind of his own time and murderous intent on punishing domestic allies at home, that the Danish prime minister

will kind of fall to the back burner of people he's going to get around to retribution against. And so in that way, Greenland will get to continue determining its own course. But it's, I mean, it's bad. Like, you cannot plausibly sit here and make the argument that Donald Trump secretly, deep down, respects other places' territorial autonomy, and that's why this isn't going to happen. I mean, it's just not true. JBL, you asked about the endgame here, and you wrote this week that Vance is,

I mean, it's not just Trump now. We have the vice president going and giving prepared remarks attacking Denmark and saying Greenland should come with us. So it's his policy. And you wrote that NATO is dead. And I want to argue the other side of that. I don't think NATO is dead. I just think that NATO now has to focus not on protecting Europe from Russia, which is still true, but also on protecting it from the United States of America. So I think NATO is alive. And my evidence for that is when Trump went after Greenland and clearly threatened NATO, I mean, multiple times threatened to tariff Denmark, okay, threatened to tariff Denmark if they did not give him Greenland. This is not about economics, not about his economic literacy, which is still out there. It's about give me this territory or I will tariff you. Denmark freaked out. And the prime minister of Denmark went to France, went to Germany, went to NATO headquarters, right? And she got Olaf Scholz and Macron people to come out and make statements basically about, hey, we're serious about protecting sovereignty everywhere. Clear message, not to Vladimir Putin, who they were already saying it to, but to Donald

Trump. So I think NATO is still alive. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization will still try to protect Western Europe. They're just going to have to protect it from us. Guys, I don't even know how to end from that. Hit like, hit subscribe, follow the feed. We'll be back on this channel with more because this is going to be a day. Believe me.

Good luck, America.