Bulwark Takes - Tucker, Don Jr. or Vance?! Who Will Take The GOP Throne From Trump?

Episode Date: June 4, 2025

JVL joins Chris Cillizza to break down the wild Republican race shaping up for 2028—from JD Vance as the Honky Tonk Man, to the dynastic ambitions of Don Jr., and the charisma of Tucker Carlson. They dig into the MAGA base, why traditional Republicans are toast, and whether Trump might just run again. Watch the full conversation on Chris Cillizza’s Substack!

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This free virtual event brings together leaders like Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Governor Andy Beshear, and others for real talk and real solutions. Together we'll tackle the most urgent issues facing rural America. Register today or learn more at ruralprogress.com. Hey fam, it's JVL.

I sat down with my buddy Chris Salillizza the other day and we talked a little bit about 2028 Republican nomination politics and yeah, I know, it's early. It's way early. And also Trump is probably going to run. But the most interesting part of this conversation is something that I think a lot of people are overlooking which is that in order for JD Vance? To to get the brass ring. He gonna have to climb over Don jr. I Got a lot of thoughts about that Stick with us watch the show and while you're here Do me if do me a solid hit like hit subscribe follow us. It helps the channel more than you could possibly know

Here's the show. I want to start with a piece that jonathan wrote last week Because it scratched two of my itches which is republican politics and professional wrestling. So Jvl, why don't you talk about jd vance for people who haven't read it jd vance the honky tonk man in hulk hogan I'll let you go there and then I'll broaden it out. And I'll recommend people, if you have not read the whole piece, you need to. It is one of the, it's a piece that has stuck with me

and will continue to stick with me, because it is a, even in the category of JBL's general work, which I think is very high, I personally think it was one of the more insightful pieces I've read from him, and he's generally insightful. Go ahead, Jonathan. Yeah, so our politics may not line up exactly, although I suspect you got like 90% overlap.

I think that's right. Our life views are 100%. 100% 100% line. And where we are in our lives. Where we are in our lives, the backgrounds we come up through with our cultural touchstones,

our views of parenthood and sport, like Chris and I are, you know, like this. Just wait until we do our big denunciation of youth sports, how adults ruined youth sports. We're working on that. That's it. That's only a matter of time. That's our life's work.

That's our Iliad in our Odyssey. That's coming. So we only a matter of time. That's our life's work. That's our Iliad in our Odyssey. That's coming. So we came up through the world, so my wife is calling me and I have to make it stop. We came up through the world of professional wrestling and WWF in the eighties. And one of the tertiary figures from this was a wrestler called The Honky Tonk Man.

And The Honky Tonk Man was, let me back up. Nobody knows, unless you're deep into wrestling, you don't know who The Honky Tonk Man is, but... I mean, I do, but yes. Sure. But everybody knows who Hulk Hogan was. In the 1980s, Hulk Hogan was wrestling. He was, he was Michael Jordan. He was Babe Ruth.

He was all those things he was Babe Ruth, he was all those things rolled up into one, and he took wrestling from a regional sideshow into a mainstream part of pop culture, because of Hulk Hogan. He made it what it has become. Without Hulk Hogan, even with Superman, without Hulk Hogan, it probably doesn't happen.

Right. And as a consequence, Hulk Hogan got to have a lot of say within the company, in part because they wanted to keep the big guy happy on the road. And he was wrestling on the road, 300, probably 60 days a year, and he liked to have his buddies around him. And so there were a lot of wrestlers

who were great wrestlers at the time. And then there were a lot of wrestlers who were just buddies of Hulk. And so they got hired. One of them was this guy called the Honky Tonk Man. Now the Honky Tonk Man's gimmick was, he was like a bad Elvis impersonator. Yep.

And Hulk and this guy went way back together and Hulk said, Oh, we got to hire him, brother. It's going to be very careful. That's not a bad Hulk game, actually. Yeah, brother. And so the Honky Tonk gets hired I'm gonna hire him, brother. It's gonna be very careful. That's not a bad Hulk game, actually. Yeah, brother.

And so the honky tonk gets hired and Hulk pushes him to the moon. And the idea is we're gonna, you know, WB is gonna push him. We're gonna make him a baby face. So he is going to be one of the people that people cheer for. And he shows up and from the very beginning, the audience rejects this character. This is a thing that happens in wrestling with the audience as a say, and the company can try to push something on the audience, but it only goes so far, right? The audience way gives a verdict, like thumbs up or thumbs down.

It's like Roman for modern wrestling fans. It's the trials and travails of Roman Reigns as a face. Yes. And so they fucking hated Honky Tonk. And it didn't matter what Vince and Hulk did to try to put Honky Tonk over, it didn't work. And so eventually they launched a write-in campaign, but they said, we're asking the fans

for a vote of confidence. And, uh, and so they gave so weird that this happened. I did not remember this happened by the way, like your piece reminded me that it happened. I did not recall this. Yeah. Uh, and so they, they, this is what people did before there was an internet is they, they literally put on the screen, you know, right in what you think Should we let's stay with honky or not? And WWE fans wrote in and said we don't like him make him go away

and so WWE turned him into a heel and so honky tonk became a bad guy and That worked better They liked the people audiences were okay with him as a heel but for this even as a heel He was he was very mid he relied on what's called cheap heat, which is like the least imaginative way You know we'd go into go into Michigan and be like well talk about Ann Harbor This is called and poop or something exactly it's like the greatest cheap heat is Rick Rude being like Rick Rude who was like supposed to be really good looking

and he'd get up there and he'd be in Columbus, Ohio and he'd be like, which one of your pig women want to come up here and be with a real man? Yeah. Yes. Yeah. I do love Rick Rude by the way. And so eventually they,

the audience turned even on destiny. He got what's called nuclear heat, which is when in wrestling, when the crowd doesn't, they're not rooting against you because they enjoy rooting against you. They want you to be fired from the show. Like wrestling fans view wrestling as a TV show and when they decided with the character,

they just don't wanna see you anymore, that's death. That's it. Like that's it. And they didn't wanna see Honky Tonk anymore. And so he left wrestling after a pretty brief stint. I think he was there for five years in total. And the short of this is that JD Vance is the Honky Tonk man.

And look at this guy and he is, he's never been very good on his own. He has been pushed along by a series of people who he's ingratiated himself with, beginning with Amy Chua, the Tiger mother back at Yale, and he just sort of keeps seeing how many made friends with him from. Yep. Then he made friends with Teal, and he made friends with Don Jr. and he got pushed to be like, oh look at the company's face. People didn't really

buy it, and they don't like him. I don't think anybody likes JD Vance So you don't think the MAGA base likes JD Vance? I don't think so Except I said like right and to just to extend the metaphor you didn't do it But if if Hogan came out with the honky tonk man. People would cheer because they like Hogan. Right. And so it's like, if Trump comes out with Vance, people cheer because they like Trump. And the question is, is like, yeah, but if you subtract Hogan,

nobody's cheering for the honky tonk man. And your contention is if you subtract Trump, nobody's cheering for JD Vance. I just don't think so. And I think that Vance has some real fans. Yeah, yeah, go ahead. And Vance is real fan. There are people who are into him.

Those people are like Rod Dreher, right? And so like Vance's basis- They're not the rank and file of the MAG UP conservative party. Yeah. And so, you know, like Rod Dreher and the editors of First Things and Compact Magazine, like these incredibly weird niche, kind of say- Yeah, hyper intellectual,

trying to put an intellectual framework around Trumpism. Right. Those are the people who are super, those are just devoted fans for JD Vance. And I just don't think that there is a viable base of popular support there. And so his whole view of 2028 is, I can only win by keeping anybody else

from getting in the race. And so my theory of JD Vance is that his strategy is to convince the two most obvious people, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr.. Yep to not run for president by saying best friends I love you. You love me. We all want the same thing, you know, you don't want you don't need to pay that on you be president They do that. It's all hard people say pain in the ass

President for you and and and you just do your thing, man. And it'll be great, right? And if he can execute that, then maybe he could beat Ron DeSantis, right? I mean, he could beat some tomato plant jobber. Right, exactly. But the people who would be the actual inheritors of the populist throne, I think his only chance

of beating them is to convince them that they don't need to run because he's their guy. I don't want to torture the metaphor because I love the honky-tonk man, JD Vance's honky-tonk man so much. I don't want to be like, and who is this candidate as a wrestler? But I do want to talk about the rest of the field. And as a way to talk about, because I'm pretty sure, although you and I haven't talked about this lately, but I'm pretty sure you and I have a similar view of what

2028 looks like for Republicans. But let's just, let's, because you mentioned these two, I do want to talk about Don Jr. and Tucker. I have not, I have not mentioned Tucker in my kind of top tier, but I always say to me, Don Jr. feels like, like if JD Vance didn't

exist and the, you know, the vice presidential nominee was whoever, I'd be like, well, Don Jr. for sure. What is your read on people who are not part of that mago world? I mean, the number of eye rolls, gasps, surely not that I get from people when I say Don Jr. And I say, like, I don't know, have you ever been to a Trump rally? Have you ever seen who gets the most applause other than senior? It is not JD Vance. It is not fill in the blank surrogate.

It is Don Jr. Because he is kind of like, I don't know if you do Trump 2.0, the id of the Trump, I don't, I don't know how you could be more id that Donald Trump senior is, but the id of the Trump movement. Can you talk about how you see him? Because I think people do not take his chances seriously enough, particularly people not of the kind of MAGA movement. No, I'll go this far.

I will say that if Trump doesn't run himself, I think is an absolute lie possibility and the people who dismiss that are crazy. And let's talk about that in a minute. Yes. But if he were to choose not to run, I think the most likely reason for that would be because he's positioning Don Jr. to run. I think he thinks dynastically. Some of the comments just said, would have been an outsider like Nikki Haley. A true outsider. I want to talk about the Nikki Haley thing because I literally think it is, if you actually

are not joking about Nikki Haley and you, it is such a misread of what the Republican Party is right now. But yes, he does absolutely believe in sort of the dynastic nature of it. He's very focused on legacy. He's very focused on being consequential. And to the extent he's loyal to anyone, which I do think is a somewhat debatable proposition, but to the extent he's loyal to anyone, it is like direct family members.

And for the most understandable reason, right? Because he's a narcissist and he views them simply as a pure proxy for himself. Right? He's like, yes, they are me. And, you know, for somebody who's contemplating a world without you at the center of it, the closest you can get to being comfortable with that is like, yeah, take my son. It was the same name as me, right and I Think that's the most likely places go and I think Don jr. Has a taste for this. Oh, he absolutely Tastes for did you see him in Qatar? The car economic form where he's like, I mean I'll admit I'm interested in it. Like if I'm JD Vance, I'm like And he's like, I mean, I'll admit I'm interested in it. Like if I'm JD Vance, I'm like,

hmm, hmm, hmm. Well, the only thing JD can do is hug him and convince him that he doesn't want to do it. And the question is like, is Don dumb enough to believe that? And I think that's an open question. To believe that Vance will, hey, you don't really want to do,

to believe that line of argument. Is he dumb enough to believe that he can get everything he wants without being president himself? Because that's what JD will say. It'll be just like your president. You'll get everything you want. I'll just have to get like the title. I'll be the one who has to go to all the openings

of the chicken marts and stuff. You don't want to have to cut these ribbons and kiss these babies. And that's bullshit. Like you actually have to have the nuclear football to have the power. And Trump would not have fallen for that. but Don might, Don's not wise for that. Right.

Two street ones for that. Yeah. I mean, Eric Trump would certainly fall for that. Right. And it's a question like, you know, is Don as dumb as Eric or is he smarter? I think he's smarter. Yeah, I do too. And I actually think, I actually think, and I know a lot of people probably

watching this load Don Jr, but, but I actually having, I actually think, and I know a lot of people probably watching this loathe Don Jr., but I actually, having seen him operate, he has a kind of like, feel for it. Like you can hate it. I mean, it's like, it's like for many, for many years, Freddie Freeman was on the Braves. And as a Nats fan, I don't have the numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure Freddie Freeman hit about 850 against the Nats. I mean, the guy was going three for four with two home runs every single game. And I fucking hated Freddie Freeman. At the same, now Freddie Freeman appears to be a wonderful human who I'm just a terrible person for hating. But at the same time, I recognize

Freddie Freeman's immense abilities as a hitter, right? And I feel like with Don Jr., I always say to people, look, you don't have to like him, but like I have seen him move around. He is not putting fingers around the Santa. Like he has a feel and you can say, well, he's a demagogue. Like I get it. I'm just saying in terms of what appeals to what the Republican Party is right now. I Mean there's he has a This way. Yeah, let me put it this way in 2017 the

operating assumption was that Ivanka Would be the successor because she's smart and she knows how to get things done and she's not an idiot and all this. And Don Jr. looked at her and she's her dad's favorite. Yes. Don Jr. looked at her and looked at the way she was brought inside the administration and given an office in the West Wing

and decided I got to fucking knife her. How do I do it? I'm not gonna, I'm gonna go on Fox fox. I'm gonna get good at going on fox Rumble was right. Yeah, he was right Yep, you know like he he went and he endeared himself to the maha faithful and the republican base and now evaka is gone She's like, you know under witness protection somewhere and don is now his dad's favorite kid Let's let's go go's go through some other people. Before we go through some other people,

I do wanna talk about this, because I do actually think, I don't know that we disagree about the possibility, but maybe the likelihood of the possibility. Here's what people always say to me, well, Donald Trump, his senior is gonna run again. And I guess my view is constitutionally, he can't. So the way that you overcome that is you either get a favorable Supreme Court ruling or you

just get an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling and you just ignore it. Is it your belief that that latter thing, no matter what the Supreme Court does, he would just do it anyway? Because I think you believe it more like I think it is a possibility I think you think it's more likely than I do correctly if I'm wrong tell me how you get there and then we'll talk about some other people all right I think that some defying Supreme Court is the least likely of pathways to this okay I think the most likely pathway is he says he's going to do it.

He pushes ahead to do it. And he gets a bunch of primaries held in which he is voted for. And the Supreme Court has then asked to invalidate the will of Republican primary voters or to invent some new test like they did for the 14th amendment and that five people on the Supreme Court view the lesser evil as let the voters have their say. We'll just say it's two consecutive terms. That's what I'm going to do. Which by the way, the court does not like and has not for a long time, metal in politics,

getting wavy. They do that all the time. Exactly. So yours, I'm putting, I have it, it's the campaign and then the court challenge as opposed to the court challenge that gets the campaign. That's interesting. Okay. I think, I think if you are him, you have to create facts on the ground. And the other thing you'll do is you have to understand is by the time we get to that

point, Republicans and the Republican Party will all be saying, oh, we want Trump. It won't be like there are 15 great Republicans out there saying, no, he's got to step aside because I'm running for president. If he has said I'm running for president, then everybody else in the Republican Party will have said, yes, sir. And so what does that look like? Tears in our eyes. Big guys. Yes, tears in their eyes. And so what does that look like when the Republican Party is saying, we want this guy, we don't even have any other

candidates? How can the Supreme Court deny us this? And I can, this is one of those things where if you forced me to, I could, I could make a good argument for John Roberts to say to Amy Cohn Barrett, hey, we gotta grab Neil, and we gotta make a five-four decision on this, because if we don't let him do this, it takes us to a civil war or something. Like, I could see that in a way which I don't agree with,

but which is not the most unreasonable thing in the world. I always feel like this with like, you know, how he pressures institutions. I think of this all the time and because we are of the same cultural vein, I think you will appreciate this. Do you remember in Spinal Path where they release smell the glove and the image, the cover image is a woman on all fours with a dog collar around her neck and a black glove being shoved in the interface.

And the record promoters like, you should have seen what they wanted to put on the cover. I feel like that feels kind of to me like the John Roberts argument, which is like, well, we can't have a civil war. You should see what he'd do if we ruled against him. You know, it's the HR McMaster, the John Kelly, the whoever who's like, you know, uh, well, you should have seen what he wanted to do.

And it's like, okay. But like at some point I feel like that argument, I mean, this is that argument, at least in political terms, taken to the nth degree, right? Like, well, we're gonna let him, we're gonna let him ignore the Constitution because the alternative is a civil war. But we've already done that, right? I mean, this is why they created presidential immunity. So they created a writ of presidential immunity, duly because they thought that the

prospect of having Trump in jail, while running for president was too dangerous. And I disagree with that. But I mean, at some point, like your pot committed to that proposition as an institution, right? I mean, you've decided that you can't let that, he'll die eventually, God will take care of this eventually. And so if we give him this last term, this third term,

he won't ask for a fourth term because he won't survive as well. But I think, I think a lot of this could be avoided by people understanding that Donald Trump is going to be like Castro, he's going to live till he's a thousand. Like guys like that always live forever. You know, they eat terribly, they never exercise and they live until they're 92. But The guy down the street from you who runs 17 marathons.

Yeah. I think that I remember and I can't you'll know this. When did you write that piece? It was a long time ago, but you wrote the Donald Trump is forever piece. I believe I wrote that in October of 2020. I think that I think of that piece regularly. I mean, it's what we're talking about sort of here broadly I think of that piece a lot. I would wreck for people who don't just search donald trump is forever in jbl's name It'll come up. Um

Can we Okay, so we stipulate as we go forward that that is at least a possibility Yeah, okay Can we talk about is there I hear this all the time because people say like, who's gonna run? And I say like, well, I mean, I think a fair number of people run but like, I think it's like JD Vance, Don Jr. Let's talk about Tucker briefly. But then I also want to talk about this thing of like, what about Glenn

Youngkin? What about Rhonda Santis? What Like, can you talk, let's talk first, let's talk about Tucker briefly, because I feel like Tucker's kind of receded somewhat and maybe purposely from kind of the national conversation lately, but tell me why you think he belongs in that first conversation. Then I wanna talk about all the other people

we hear mentioned. I mean, I'll say this about Tucker. In a world where Trump decides not to run, if Tucker Carlson decided that he wanted to be the Republican nominee from president, I think he would be. He is perfectly in line with where the Republican base is right now. And he is the best talker any of us have ever seen. He's a great talker. Any of us have ever seen. He's a great talker. I say this about Obermann.

Obermann hates me. I think Obermann is a little much. That's being kind cause we're live, but I don't have anything against him. But like my thing with Obermann is no matter what he feels about me, he's a genius on television. Like if you go and watch what he did with countdown or certainly sports center, he's a genius.

It's a certain skill and he's remarkable at it. Tucker is a remarkably gifted communicator. He just is. Unbelievable. Yeah. He's unbelievably good. Yep. And I just think the base wants more of that.

They want his type of authenticity. They don't want another politician. They do not want some governor. You know, they don't want some senator. And so I think with Tucker, the question would be, would he want to run? And he never has. This is something I've been old friends with Tucker for a long time. We do not break bread often.

We haven't spoken in a long time. But I know for certain he has never wanted to run for president. He's never had that ambition at all. Uh, but if he were to change his mind, I think he would be impossible to stop. I see some people in the comments saying, how can you say Tucker is authentic? Now I actually agree with, you know, this is the bow tide, you know, William F Buckley, like, and, and now he's the Trump Trumpian like explain what you mean and why he is what? Republican using the Republican base wants I

mean Tucker Authentic is is such a weird verb because it doesn't mean exactly what the OED definition of it means right Donald Trump is very authentic even though he's very 90% of the time Yep, but it's authentic, right? It's you know, it is what it is comfortable his own skin says what he thinks. That's what people Yeah, it's George Costanza, right? It's not a lie If you believe it on your person as long as you believe it when you're saying it then you're not lying, right? This is yeah, this is that's the difference. I think between authenticity and not authenticity Yeah This is the best difference I think between authenticity and not authenticity is the people who understand

that they're lying and are trying to sell something versus the people who genuinely believe what they're saying in the moment, every moment. And I think Tucker's a lot like that. And plus again, like Tucker's just, I'm sorry, like he's, he's an unbelievably charming guy. Totally agreed. I think people who have never met him probably don't.

They're like, how can you? And I'm like, well, like I know him through mutual. I haven't talked to him in years either. And you're, I'm sure you knew him better, but like I know him through mutual people. And like, yes, I mean, I would say, by the way, the few times I've met Donald Trump, he's like, people don't get this about him. Like this is why the whole fake news things makes me insane because no one cares more about The media and no one is more aware of media and no one is more solicitous of the media than Donald Trump

I mean George W Bush and Barack Obama were genuinely Genuinely disdainful of the media like they didn't really understand why there's a pain in their ass and And Trump, every time I've ever seen him, yeah, hey, you're doing great work. Now, of course, he's never read it. He doesn't know that I'm doing that. But he is, he is, that is who he is. This is, I can just say to people in the comments, because I see you guys talking about this. There is a magic that people who are good at politics have. And it is like the Dungeons and Dragons character attribute category, charisma, you know? And you don't have to like it or agree with it, and it doesn't always work. Look, I never understood the Bill Clinton charm.

But Bill Clinton was a charming motherfucker, right? And it didn't work on me. I wasn't the target demo. But I can't deny that it exists. And Tucker has that. And I totally agree. Can let's talk before we talk to individual names. Do you, again, with the stipulation of, you know, who knows what Donald Trump senior does. Do you see any scenario where the next Republican nominee for president is not a full fledged Trump acolyte? No, no. Those people no longer have a spot in the party.

And there will be no way to walk away from him. And like you write, there's no, there's no like, Oh, I agree with some of what he said, but not everything like there's no there, there won't be a there's no subtlety that exists there. And more than that, I think that 2024 was an object lesson to people who might think about starting a primary challenge or starting an exploratory committee even. I mean, this is one of the things you're going to see. We're going to pass the midterms, which is going to be when people start announcing their

exploratory committees for office on the Democratic side and the Republican side is going to be absolute silence. Nobody is going to dare put a toe over the line. Because of Trump. Because of Trump. Because of Trump. Because even saying it out loud, because this is again, it is like a hostage situation where he keeps toying with the idea of 2028. And so until he specifically disavows it,

then saying that you are going to set up an exploratory committee and go to an event in Iowa, that is an act of treason. And you have seen what happened to all of those people who ran in 2024, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris Chris, those guys are all roadkill, they're out of the party. I mean, DeSantis is still there. And I understand that Ron DeSantis still thinks

he's running for president, which is amazing to me. Wow, he also probably thought his wife was gonna be the governor of the state three months ago And yeah, no, I mean he did and again Donald Trump just totally power played that You know 100% and they're gonna look at this and you know Anybody who is half, you know two brain cells to run to rub together is gonna look at this and say no way I'm not gonna have what happened to me. What happened to Mike Pence happened to me. I'm not going to have what happened to Ron DeSantis happened to me. Let me let me pause. I agree with you. I just want to play devil's advocate for a minute. Let's say so Trump is at like 42 43% approval in the general electorate right now. He's he's over 80,

certainly among Republicans, probably 85 86%. Let's say he gets down. And I think you and I have talked about this publicly and privately before, which is his floor is probably pretty high in the same way that it's ceiling and polling is probably pretty low. And so I don't think he's going to 29 like George W. Bush was. But let's say he gets into the mid-30s by the 20. They lose big in the mid-term.

They lose the House by 20 seats. They keep the senate by a seat He's at 36 approval. It's January it's march 2027 his numbers among republicans dip below 80 percent Is there not a case to be made then that you can say You could as a candidate say I love what Donald Trump did but we need something a little bit different or is it just am I am I thinking in the old

way of like polling matters? Yeah, I think that's that's the old view. Right. I mean, this is I think that as I was saying it, I was thinking it too. But I figured why not. No, I mean, regardless of how this turns out, the next, the post-Trump move is going to be that real populism has never been tried. It's not going to be like, hey, we got to tack back to the center, maybe we should try governing or democracy or something.

If, like let's pretend Trump, the bottom falls out. We get a recession, Trump falls, falls 32% approval, right? Even there, the answer is not gonna be Glenn Youngton. It's gonna be, we've been stabbed in the back by all of these deep state, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and what we have to do is we've got to do real populism. Right, so we would further down, even further down that rabbit hole, not out of the rabbit hole.

Yeah, that's where the party is. Because again, I mean, the dynamics were there because everybody who would have wanted like Glenn Youngkinism, they're gone. They're not in the party anymore. Right, so where's the appetite for that? Every time somebody mentions him, I'm like, the party is going to go from Donald Trump to a guy who made millions at Carlisle and whose signature thing is that he wears vests. Like, it just doesn't feel like, among the kids, among the dads who go to my kids' private

school in Northern Virginia, they love Glenn Young. Yeah, I'm sure they do and they're ostensibly Republicans, but like it's that's not a thing. That's that's not scalable Do you think Glen Youngton believes in Glen Youngton because that's the thing that I've never been able to understand for a guy You seem so smart He does not seem to be realistic about the world in which he lives. So I'm because Carlisle is based in in Northern Virginia, I know many people who work there and many people who used to work

there. And for people who don't know Carlisle is where Glenn Young can made all his money. And their view of Young can is he is a pretty good face for Carlisle. He's really good in a meeting where you're trying to recruit new business, but he's not the strategic mind behind all. Do you know what I mean? Like he's not the guy, he is not David Rubinstein.

You know what I mean? He is not like the guy who made Carlisle Carlisle, right? He's a guy who's like, he looks good, you know, he's good in front of shareholders. He's good at life. Blah, blah, blah. Exactly. And so given that, I guess I see him through that lens more, which makes me think he probably does kind of believe in Glenn Youngkin because he's –

Guys like that always believe in themselves. Yeah, he's just kind of like playing the role to which he was born. You know what I mean? Like, and so that makes me wonder, does he probably take some kind of, well, does he think hard about it, even though I agree with you? And so, by the way, so just in that category,

I would put, Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia is a non-starter, right, Given given that, right? Yeah. Nikki Haley is done in American Republican politics for the first. I mean, I don't see a way. Yes. And no, right? Done. Um, I'm just going through all these other names. DeSantis, same thing. Okay, so let me just go through a few other people just because I'm selfishly I just want to get your take on them. I'm gonna go in alphabetical order greg abbott three-term governor of texas Probably more in his heart of hearts more john cornyn than ken paxton

I know that's a little bit of a deep cut if you don't follow politics all that closely But more aligned with the what the establishment used to be than kind of mago world What do you make of him and do ted cru crews while you're at it while we're in? Texas yeah, I mean I I think that if somebody was gonna come out of Texas it would be Paxton because it's got to be somebody who Who went to jail right or who almost went to jail? He didn't go to jail to Texas is Trump and so if you're gonna be a traditional politician What has to be your strategic advantage has to be

you are so far outside of the mainstream of traditional politics and what that- Paxton, right. That everybody else is repelled by you because you're like, you are literally a crook, right? And maybe you can- The House speaker who is a Republican in Texas Try to impeach right Ken Paxton like that's that's what you need. Yeah, that's that's my view

crew Ted Cruz I Mean I at some point Ted is gonna get I think Ted has given up and reconciled himself to life as a podcaster But when he was born for honestly, honestly, he's another. I always say to people, that crew's a good talker. He's a pretty good talker. He's, like, he does not appear to enjoy being in the Senate. He does not appear to enjoy his life. Like, I just don't understand what that guy's doing.

And so I assume he just has- Somebody just said, I'll call an audible because somebody I assume this was serious if it wasn't sorry, but somebody in the comments just said chris sanunu I mean that to me is like that's like the chances of chris salizo being elected as the republican nominee Like I I mean, I just don't what what? 0.0 or 0 percent chance. Yeah, um Just do any of the following names jump out at you in any way shape or form as interesting whether in 2028 or beyond as a future leader of the republican party stop me when you've heard one

Secretary of state marco rubio sarah huckabee sanders Tom cotton and or Josh Holly, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott. Any of those people? Rubio is the name that gets the most run because clearly even though he had like a very public fight with Trump during 2016, I guess nobody remembers anything about the past. He is now national security advisor and Secretary of State. Oh, Trump, trust him.

What do you make of Rubio? Uh, 0.000% chance. Interesting. Everybody wants chances. I mean, he's turning into a schlub. I don't know if you've noticed this, but like he's no longer like the dashing good looking guy. He's now like sweaty with his hair receding and he's just broken.

He's a broken man. I feel that sweaty and hair is eating. I feel those vibes. He is a broken man in the base still hates him. They will hate him still. See, that's the thing. It's like, it's like, because they know. Trump is able to forgive in some way

if he thinks it's advantageous for him. But I really do think it is like a, you have to think about it like religion. Like I do think the base will never forgive Rubio. Like I just don't see it. And see, that's what makes it easier for Trump to forgive, right? Trump can forgive because he knows his base won't.

Right? It seems to be graceful when you know that your people hold the grudge for you. I'll tell you a name you didn't have. Sandus Owens. You go out and talk to Republicans and ask them like, you know, hey, would you like to I am telling you in every single group, Sarah had this in 2024. So my partner, Sarah Longwell, does focus groups. It's a great podcast.

It is a great podcast. Don't follow it. So it's like 10 of the week. And in 2024, every single Republican focus group she did where she asked, like, who do you guys want? Overwhelmingly, they always want to Trump. But there was in every group one or two people who said boy that Candice Owens is really impressive So is it your belief that if I gave you if I if I had to split this into

Entertainment slash right celebrities whether that's TV YouTube or whatever and I include Tucker Candice Owens those kind of people in there or And I guess Don jr. Would be included in there too. Although he has the right of heredity, but but he's in that space too versus Literally any person who is a Republican currently in elected office. Would you choose the entertainer wing? Yes Yes, so I think you think it's that we are that far down that road. Yes. And I mean, I think that the chances of Democrats using somebody who is not in elected office are actually reasonably high as well.

I just think we're headed as a country towards like full blown celebrity idiocracy. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe, you know, Democrats will nominate some like public servant to really prioritize this passing legislation. But I don't know, like Trump has been president for five months now and they've passed four bills in Congress, I think.

And he signed a hundred and whatever executive orders. And you know, he threw us into a first negative quarter of growth and God knows how long and his approval rating is only 42%. Like this is, I mean, like, I know like 42% isn't great, but that's actually, considering the facts on the ground, that's not bad. Yeah, we're just in a,

I mean, this gets to my general buses and this country is just fucked.