Catalyst with Shayle Kann - Understanding SAF buyers

Episode Date: May 16, 2024

Airlines are lining up to buy as much sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as they can, despite it costing two to three times more than conventional jet fuel, according to BloombergNEF. United Airlines has secured 2.9 billion gallons of SAF over, and others like Delta, Air France-KLM, and Southwest have secured around 1 billion gallons each. And yet to meaningfully decarbonize aviation, the SAF market needs to grow thousands of times larger than it is today. BloombergNEF estimates that global production capacity will grow 10-fold by 2030, but by then supply will still only meet 5% of jet fuel demand. So how are airlines thinking about scaling up their procurement of SAF? In this episode, Shayle talks to Amelia DeLuca, chief sustainability officer at Delta. They cover topics like: Who pays the green premium Infrastructure considerations, like SAF hubs and blending Technical pathways, like hydroprocessing, alcohol-to-jet, and power-to-liquids The role of incentives and regulation, like ReFuelEU Why airlines should procure SAF instead of buying carbon removal Recommended Resources: BloombergNEF: United Airlines Is Betting Big on a Pricey Green Aviation Fuel The Verge: Delta Air Lines lays out its plan to leave fossil fuels behind  Canary Media: Can corn ethanol really help decarbonize US air travel? Canary Media: How hydrogen ​‘e-fuels’ can power big ships and planes Catalyst: CO2 utilization Catalyst is supported by Origami Solar. Join Latitude Media’s Stephen Lacey and Origami’s CEO Gregg Patterson for a live Frontier Forum on May 30th at 1 pm Eastern to discuss Origami’s new research on how recycled steel can help reinvigorate the U.S. solar industry. Register for free on Latitude’s events page.

Latitude Media, podcast at the frontier of climate technology. I'm Shale Khan, and this is Catalyst. Delta's approach has always been, everything should be on the table right now in terms of feedstocks and technologies, and we're just going to go one by one and figure out which one proves itself out until we kind of find one that for sure starts to take off, but it's way too early to start to count things out. Today, take to the skies with me. Let's burn some of that good, clean saph. When utilities need flexible capacity they can count on, they turn to Energy Hub.

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I'm Shail Khan. I invest in revolutionary climate technologies and energy impact partners. Welcome. Well, I find the world of aviation decarbonization and SAF, sustainable aviation fuel, so interesting right now. For all the talk across many industries, that the notion of a quote-unquote green premium is more myth than reality, and indeed in most of those industries it is,

aviation is actually bucking the trend. There is real meaningful demand in the form of real sizable offtake for decarbonized aviation fuel. And let's be clear, the price of those off-takes today are not competitive with fossil jet, usually not even competitive with subsidies, which there are a generous amount of. Also, SAF is not one thing, right? It's a bucket term for a variety of different feedstocks and production processes,

each of which have their own pros and cons. So there's a real emergent, large market for a green premium product in a commodity sector, which we don't see in a lot of other places yet, and I think we're going to need in order for those other markets to truly decarbonize. We've talked in the past on this pod, and I'm sure we will again, about the different technical production pathways for SAF, everything from bio-based SAF to e-fuels. But given that we actually have the emergence of real demand,

I wanted to also talk to a customer. So for this one, I brought on Amelia DeLuca, who is the chief sustainability officer at Delta Airlines. Delta has been buying SAF since 2021, as you'll hear, plans to buy a lot more of it, and is thinking a lot about sort of how to build the ecosystem that's going to be required to go from where we are today,

which admittedly is very, very small scale to where we need to be, which is very, very large scale. Here's Amelia. Amelia, welcome. Thanks, Shale. Thanks for having me. Let's talk about sustainable aviation fuel. Maybe start with Delta's journey in the world of SAF. Like, when did Delta start getting serious about it?

How has the world evolved? And then where would you say you are today? Yeah. Sustainable aviation fuel is obviously really. really important for us here at Dulton. We've been hard at work since, I guess it was about 2021 when we first started to procure large, and I say large in quotation marks, even though you can't see me, because it's still very small in the grand scheme of things. But every year we've, you know, more or less doubled our staff procurement. But more importantly, I think every

year we've really accelerated the conversation that we're having about the topic, whether that be through a policy lens, through a B2B customer lens, because they're are very interested in SAF for their own emissions, as well as with our suppliers who we have a number of under contract right now. Okay, so you said you started in 2021 and you've more or less doubled your procurement each year. Let's put numbers on that. So how much SAF have you purchased in each of those years? And obviously contextualize it. Like what is that relative to how much aviation fuel Delta purchases? No, I know. That's where I'm so proud of the work that we've done, but also we have so far to go. So Delta as a company procures $4 billion.

gallons of jet fuel every year. Last year, we used roughly three and a half million gallons of staff. And that's not for wanting more. That's all we could get our hands on. And we've sold, or we've got a buyer for the scope three emissions for every single drop that we have. And there's way more demand for that than we can even get our hands on. And so it speaks to the fact that it's scaling. And whether you look at wind or solar, you can sit there and say, well, sure, those industries took a while to take off. But I think on the other side, there's a real sense of urgency as a hard-to-de-carbonize sector that is also very beloved for what we offer, you know, we've got to outpace some of those other emergent industries in terms of we don't have decades to get this

right. It needs to scale sooner rather than later. You just alluded to one thing that I think is really interesting about how this market is emerging and that I'd like to actually see in other hard-to-abate sectors more than we have so far, which is you said you have a buyer for the scope three emissions of each of those. I think we should walk through that for a second because I don't think everybody in the outside knows what's happening, which is when Delta procures, today at least, when Delta procures SAF, if you buy a gallon of SAF, what you're actually doing is you have a customer on the other side, presumably a company or a government or something like that, that flies a lot with Delta, to whom you are passing on the credits. In other words, they are paying you that green

premium in the form of buying that to eliminate their own emissions, right? So you're sort of a pass-through at the end of the day. Is that how you think about it? Yeah, I mean, I think maybe step back for a second and just say, you know, Delta, just because of the service that we offer, you know, we're beloved by both our consumers as well as our corporate and cargo customers who trust us with, whether it's their business travelers or their or their cargo. And so we've always had these really large enterprise relationships with our top B-to-B clients, and we're just transitioning that into sustainability. We've had probably 500 plus conversations with our top corporate and cargo customers just to say, what are your sustainability goals and how can we support you on those? And for many of our

customers, their scope three business travel emissions. Think about your consulting firms or your banks, for example, that's the bulk of their emissions. They sit in that scope three business travel. And so they're very eager to partner with us on staff, not just for today to be able to show their employees that they're doing something, but more broadly that they see the role for them often in the value chain, because many of them provide us as well with their assets, whether that's their people or their time or their expertise to similarly help us scale it. So it goes beyond just a transaction and more about just a huge ecosystem of our best B2B customers who are saying Delta and airline industry, we want to be there to support you.

And so I think this gets to one of the things that makes this market so interesting right now, which is you said, and I think I've heard this from basically every airline who's involved in this market right now. There is far more demand. And in this case, that means amongst your B2B customers who want to decarbonize their scope three emissions by purchasing these credits or whatever you want to call them. There's far more demand than there is supply right now. So if you had, if you could snap your fingers and have five times as much SAF availability as there is today, you think you could find customers to essentially buy that, right? And if that's true, then because, again, you're bearing no cost.

The extra cost is being passed on to the customer. There's no reason that you wouldn't max out the amount that you purchase, right? It's just a function of supply. No, that's spot on. It's a function of supply. And I'll point to one of the industry leading moves that Delta made last year was launching the Minnesota Saff Hub. And that was a recognition that the supply of Saff is not scaling at the pace that was

expected. And so we stepped back and just said, well, what was the problem? It's because there was a relationship between two companies. You had an airline and a startup. And that wasn't working. They weren't getting financing. We can send all the demand signals we want, but still, you know, the way that, you know,

essentially the contracts were written, that SAF supplier just wasn't getting the financing they needed. And so we stepped back and we said, this needs to be a more ecosystem approach. It needs to be short, medium, and long term. It doesn't need to just be project-specific, but really just location-specific in the case of Minnesota. So when you look at Minnesota,

we've been really public in talking about there's three horizons here. It's maximizing the uplift of SAF today with what's available. And we've got a number of corporate customers at the table with us saying we will be part of that Horizon 1, getting SAF out of the state of Minnesota for the first time ever, accelerated by some state policies that are making Minnesota one of the best states to uplift SAF. And then moving into Horizon 2 and 3, Horizon 2 is really focused on a new emerging pathway called Alcohol to Jet, which provides an alternative to the ethanol industry to start to convert their ethanol product into SAF in the more medium term. And then also acknowledging that if you really look

at full scalability for that 4 billion gallons of jet fuel, we have to look even further into the future into power to liquid or synthetic fuels, which really need that access to renewable energy to essentially, you know, cut the water into hydrogen or green hydrogen in the case of PTL. And so the point is it's a more holistic approach. So it's not just saying there's one project and that one project is a binary, did it make it or did it fail? And kind of say more holistically, we have all the ingredients in Minnesota to make SAF now and way past 2050, and let's do it as a systems approach instead of just these two players. I mean, that's the whole thing of sustainability, right? Shale is that it's systems thinking, futures thinking versus this one individual moment in time. So you alluded to

this, but I want to talk about what the SAF you're actually purchasing today is and then what it might be in the future. As you know, SAF is an umbrella term, and there's lots of different versions of SAF, different feedstocks, different processes to produce it. So of the, of the, let's start with what's actually happening today, of that limited volume that exists today, what is the source of that SAF? Sure. Well, here's an acronym you may not know, and you don't need to necessarily remember it either, but the source of SAF today is using a process called HEFA, hydro-treated esters and fatty acids. And the only reason I say that is fatty acids. So the source of that today is things like vegetable oils, waste oils, use cooking oil, for example, in fats. And they go,

through a process that uses hydrogen to essentially move it into sustainable aviation fuel. It's a somewhat, you know, it's a proven technology. It's straightforward. It's being done today. And so it's proven out. So most people would say, well, then why do you need to think of any others? Well, of course, it's a feedstock constraint issue. So all those feedstocks I mentioned, I mean, there's a limitation. They can't be scaled to the four billion gallons of jet fuel that Delta uses, let alone what the industry uses. And we are a growth industry too. So our fuel needs are going to be even greater in the future. And so with that, that's where you start to look towards a couple pathways that are more scalable. So again, I mentioned the ethanol industry with alcohol

to jet. That's one that there's a lot of excitement about. One, you get a lot of support from farmers and from rural states. It can be scaled quite a bit. It still can't get to the 2050 net zero, and that's when you start to tack on power to liquid, which is your true zero emissions, fuel that can really be scaled to an unlimited future. So you think of this as coming in three phases. Phase 1 is Hefa, which we max out based on the availability of waste, fats, and so on. Then phase two is like the alcohol to jet, which scales a lot higher than Hefa does, but still doesn't get you all the way there. And then phase three long term is power to liquids. On phase two, how do you think about ethanol?

Ethanol obviously has, there's like, there's a lot to say about ethanol. It is definitely more scalable. We produce a lot of ethanol in the United States, partially as a resuscally. result of the subsidies that we've given for ethanol for ground transportation fuels. And it's now starting to shift. It looks like the sort of policy wins are shifting some of that toward aviation. From a sustainability standpoint, it's got its pluses and minuses. So as you think about staff procurement, is it sort of anything that's better from an emission standpoint without significant negative externalities of anything that's better than Jet A

today is worth procuring? Or do you grade it based on the degree of decarbonization? What's the right way to think about that? Yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple guardrails when you think about staff. And I would just mention, you know, a few at the outset. So one, in terms of the way incentives are written, you have to hit a 50% reduction in carbon intensity. So that is a threshold. So it's not just a little bit. It's got to hit that 50% threshold. I think the second thing is we are studying life cycle emissions, right? So we're looking at the totality of the production of that fuel. And there's some emerging science in particular in the pathway of ethanol that is going to be really important to study and quantify and to build into the model things like climate smart agriculture, for example, which is, you know, the government is that's top of mind for them right now.

They've got to understand it, got to figure out additionality. And then, you know, if it counts, that's where these fuels start to be, you know, pretty close to a zero emissions product. but there's still some more studying that's that's underway for that right now. And then I think, you know, the next thing I would just comment on again is back where I started. We've got this ecosystem that similarly stands with us on this, these corporate and cargo accounts. And so they're walking with us and saying, right, we want the most, the highest integrity staff that's possible, the most environmentally friendly, and we want to really look at that lifecycle emission. So we're held, you know, accountable to a number of groups.

And obviously the way we think about it is, and we're very transparent through our ESG report, what we're purchasing, how it's working, and how Delta's advocating for, you know, emissions, emissions counting as we move forward. I would just mention, though, I mentioned ethanol, obviously, that's a great one because when we look at our Midwest states where our hubs are, you know, ethanol and shifting and finding a new industry for the production of ethanol, you know, helps create jobs or secure jobs. It supports farmers and staff as a growing market. So there's a lot of interest in some of these states that have seen economic decline to move into the staff space. At the same time, though, there is a number of other

technologies and feedstocks. I haven't mentioned. I'm taking this recording, for example, right now in the state of Georgia. The feedstock in Georgia is different. It's not ethanol, right? It's probably a woody waste product or sometimes I get asked about peanut oil, right? And the point is, Delta's approach has always been everything should be on the table right now in terms of feedstocks and technologies. And we're just going to go one by one and figure out which one proves itself out until we kind of find one that for sure starts to take off. But it's way too early to start to count things out. power plants are becoming a reliable way for utilities to manage capacity. But enrolling devices

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Trillions of dollars are flowing into power plants, transmission lines, battery factories, data centers, but the future of energy isn't shaped by technology alone. It's shaped by markets, by policy, by capital, and by the institutions that connect them. I'm Alfred Johnson, CEO of Crux, the capital platform for the clean economy. Join me for my brand new show, Critical Capital, as I talk with people deploying capital, shaping policy and building projects. Together, we unpack how risk is priced, how incentives are structured, and how progress is actually made. Listen to Critical Capital Capital on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm sure you can't talk in great detail about specific purchases, but I'm curious what you've been seeing in terms of the pricing of SAF in the market.

As we've talked about, it's definitely a seller's market right now, which is a good thing because, you know, SAF in all of its forms, all the forms that you described, is certainly not cost competitive yet. with traditional jet fuel. So there's clearly a premium attached. The question is, how big is that premium? How scalable is that premium, right? Is there some limit to the amount of volume you could pass on to customers today at today's prices? And how is that going to have to trend,

especially as we shift from Hafa to alcohol to jet to power to liquids eventually? Yes, the million, billion, trillion dollar question, the green premium. So I will just step back for a second and mention. So we procured 3.5 million gallons of staff last year. We are actively planning for 50 million gallons plus in California over the next two years. And the reason I'm starting with California is just mentioning that's where the incentives are to date.

But actually, as you start to bring more staff online, we also see more states stepping in. And this is important because when you think about the green premium, there's really four levers that we as Delta believe that we play an active role in shaping amongst the ecosystem. So the first is the supply itself. And so, yes, you're correct. Shale, as you walk into these new technologies and feedstocks, there are opportunities to bring that green premium down as those products scale. So HFA has a hard time of bringing that green premium down dramatically because you're kind of constrained by the used cooking oil constraint.

And so, you know, there isn't much more to walk down. But as you get into alcohol, the jet and PTO, scalability will bring down that green premium. But in the short term, you have both federal and state level incentives that play a huge role. So, again, as you start to see states like Minnesota or Illinois, come online with a $1.50 tax credit, that starts to really help walk that price down from where it's been to date with the Hefa going out of California because that's a bigger state incentive. And then similarly, the fourth one after you get through the supply itself, federal incentives,

and state incentives is the corporate and cargo demand, which to date has been quite strong and really aided by a lot of the investor pressure that companies are feeling to make sure that they have transparency and that they have short and medium-term climate goals. And again, for many, that's scope three. So I think, and I think the other thing just to mention is, you know, we don't make the Saff. You know, we are a company that at the end of the day, we are a consumer brand. That's the most important thing to us at Delta. And it means a lot to us, you know, when we think about customer service, when we think about consumer satisfaction,

we think about just the strength of our brand, it's making sure that we have the consumer in mind with everything that we do. And so when I start to think a little bit about willingness to pay, it's about really kind of maximizing out those things. things that I just mentioned so that we are, you know, not just passing this on to the consumer. That being said, I think there's an interesting case study of who's going to pay for it as staff starts to scale with the European mandates that will start within the region in 2025. And so we're watching the European mandates closely to see the impact on the overall demand and cost to airlines. Let's talk about those mandates a little bit.

That's another component of the rising demand here. So what do you think of as the main mandates to which you will be subject and how big a deal are they? Well, I think the biggest ones are the European mandates refuel EU, which starts for the region next year. I will say that France started their mandates a couple of years ago. So we've got a running start at understanding how those are going to work. The mandate itself sits on the producer. It doesn't sit on the airline, but obviously through the relationships that we have with our producers, you know, our fuel producers there in Europe, we will certainly contribute to these mandates. And then I think the thing that's interesting on the mandates is, you know, the conversation is spreading into other regions in the world.

And so I think that will be, you know, something to watch. Again, it's just they're all key studies in terms of what works and what doesn't works. And as a sustainability professional, we're very quick to just say we're observing and we're learning and we're going to pivot as we go. I will say, though, from the Delta perspective, we continue to think and are very appreciative of the support that we've gotten, not only from the Biden administration in the United States, but as well from many of our, are Midwest states that their government officials are incredibly supportive of SAF because they see the benefit economically from, you know, SAF production coming in their states and not rushing into mandates, but instead putting the right incentives in place ensures that we are really doing

this in the thoughtful approach that ultimately does shield the consumer from that green premium. Can you just go one level deeper on the refuel requirement? What is it actually going to mandate and when? So the refuel requirement starting in 2025, is for the European Union. And essentially it puts a mandate on top of producers to blend a portion of staff into their conventional jet fuel. And there's different elements to it. It increases as it goes.

Over time, it starts to dictate the type of staff that you can blend in. And they've got some smart things they're doing behind the scenes to try to make sure that it's not saying you have to have it at every single airport, or at least that's what they're debating right now, is making sure that it's rolled out in a way that's intelligent. and so you're not breaking down the environmental benefits of SAF by forcing it to go into every single pipeline throughout Europe. You know, SAF started in Europe, though.

So, you know, one of our first SAF relationships was with Neste, and that SAF was coming out of Europe. And so Europe certainly has a head start on SAF. And again, I like that they advance the conversation to say not just that SAF should be part of the equation when it comes to the airline industry, but that they're really starting to be thoughtful of saying, you know, kind of year by year, kind of what is that mix of the types of feedstocks

and technologies that they'd like to see? I think the flip side of that is, I would say, you know, sometimes a mandate, and in this case, this is our position that, you know, it's just a couple years ahead of where the supply is. And so it's forcing it into the market at a price point that is not, we don't think it's consumer-friendly. Now, right now it's very small percentages, so most consumers will not see that. But that's where I say it's a watch and see for us in the United States and Delta just to see the impact of the consumer. You mentioned blending mandates. I mean, I think one important point, we're not really at this point yet because, as you said,

the volumes are so small. But what is Delta's view on how much SAF you can blend with traditional JAD? It differs by what type of SAF it is, obviously. But at what point do we start to run into blending concerns? So there's a couple things on the blending side that are interesting to watch. The first is the fact that there is a maximum blend limit of 50% today. And that's just because the chemistry of SAF is slightly different than conventional jet fuel. And if you've got it at 100%, there are some things in the infrastructure themselves that just need to be tested and certified.

So the industry is certainly looking at that, but I think we're probably at least a decade away from having that be a real issue in any single location. On the other hand, what is interesting is that when someone makes SAF, in order for it to go onto our plane, it needs to be blended in with our conventioner jet fuel. And this is something the industry has noted is a concern to date, because we've got these individual producers who are trying to figure out blending, whether that's at their production site, or, you know, potentially in a tank that's just off an airport. And none of that feels that's scalable. And so we are really pushing to see blending hubs in some key markets, such as Minnesota, so that we've got just one place where all staff producers are able to blend in their staff, and then all airlines are able to access. So we're not creating additional infrastructure that ultimately isn't needed as the product scales. All right, final question for you. I've talked about this before, but I'm interested to get your perspective on it. So, as you said, sort of longer-term future, power to liquids maybe is the path to SAF. So power to liquids, if you're going to do it truly sustainably, means you're capturing CO2, presumably from the atmosphere,

biogenic CO2, combining it with clean hydrogen, and then you make your synthetic jet fuel. that requires you, in addition to capturing the CO2, of course, it requires you to make the hydrogen and then run this process with the two of them that gets you ultimately to jet fuel. So there's clearly an additional cost beyond the CO2 capture. The alternative thing you could do is you could just capture the CO2 and sequester it underground. And, you know, in the grand scheme of things, if you just did that at large scale and continued to burn your traditional fossil jet fuel, you could net those two things out and you'd end up with the same emissions impact as producing a ton of power to liquids, but presumably at lower cost fundamentally.

However, you're not actually buying SAF at that point. You're just buying carbon removal credits or something like that. How do you think about that from an airline's perspective? Is there some future where that ends up being the path rather than buying actual jet fuel? Or is it more just of a practical, like, look, at the end of the day, we are an airline, we buy jet fuel. Even if it's a little more expensive, we're probably going to buy clean jet fuel rather than carbon removal credits. Yeah, you know, I think what's interesting about power to liquid and it starts to bring in other conversations that seem, first off, really far away. You know, DAC in particular is in carbon capture and sequestration is, you know, it's a little ways.

away until that becomes a large enough of a market to even really have that debate. But I think more importantly, what I like about the topic, though, is we're not alone as an industry and exploring these things. So when we talk about and show interest in DAC and in green hydrogen, it's actually really cool space to be in because it's one of the first times that we're not alone as an industry. There's a lot of people who are exploring DAC and green hydrogen. And so while we as airlines are really focused on things like just scaling staff today through the half of process or trying to stand up the alcohol to jet industry, we haven't lost sight on these other items, but you just see a lot of other stakeholders that are interested in it for their own specific industries.

So that's at a high level of how we as an industry think about it. We're certainly proponents of all of those items. We certainly look forward to them scaling so that we can figure out the right way for the aviation sector to play in it. I will say, though, and this is just this is the topic of the year of the last few years, is this concept of how you take ownership for your environmental footprint. And it's that concept of insets versus offsets. And so staff obviously looks at the entire value chain, therefore these items like carbon capture become part of the inset and they're part of the life cycle. And that is the, you know, as of to date, is the accepted path forward. I think the other thing I would say is also the economic,

economical value proposition. Conventional jet fuel is incredibly unstable. If you track the industry's just highs and lows in terms of profitability, they are often, not always, the pandemic was different, but they're often tied to the price of jet fuel. So there's a real desire on our end to actually move to a synthetic fuel that is sourced from a feedstock that's not fossil fuels because of the fact that it takes out some of the instability of our profits. That actually there's a lot of models that suggest that power to liquid, the cost structure should be lower than conventional jet fuel and should sit and be very stable because you're truly using these unlimited resources. So for us as an industry, there's a real desire to see this scale because it's also going to really help us just have a, a more stable industry as we move forward. All right, Amelia, this was super interesting.

And I'm very excited to see SAF sort of taking on real volume demand at this point. As I said before, I think we haven't seen it in many of these, quote-unquote, hard-to-abate sectors. It's clearly emerging here. And I'm excited to see what Delta has been doing along with other airlines on this. So appreciate your time. And we'll have you back on at some point to keep posted on progress. Great. Thanks, Shail.

Amelia Deluca is the chief sustainability officer at Delta. This show is a production of Latitude Media. Can head over to Latitudemedia.com for links to today's topics. Latitude is supported by Prelude Ventures. Prelude Backs Visionaries, Accelerating Climate Innovation, that will reshape the global economy for the betterment of people and planet. Learn more at Preludeventures.com. This episode was produced by Daniel Waldorf and Aaron Hardick,

mixing by Roy Campan and Sean Marquan, theme song by Sean Marquan. I'm Shail Khan, and this is Catalyst.