Classic Audiobook Collection - Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington ~ Full Audiobook [history]

Starting point is 00:00:00 Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 1. Civilization and Climate Introduction The races of the earth are like trees. Each according to its kind brings forth the fruit known as civilization. As russet apples and pippins may grow from the same trunk, and its peaches may even be crafted on a plum tree, so the culture of allied races may be transferred from one to another. Yet no one expects pairs from cherry branches, and it is useless to look for Slavic civilization among the Chinese.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Each may borrow from its neighbors, but will put its own stamp upon what it obtains. The nature of a people's culture, like the flavor of a fruit, depends primarily upon racial inheritance, which can be changed only by the slow processes of biological variation and selection. yet inheritance is only one of the factors in the development of civilization. Religion, education, government, and all of man's varied occupations, customs and institutions, his inherited culture, as the anthropologists say, form a second great group of social influences whose power seems almost immeasurable. They do for man.

Starting point is 00:01:21 What cultivation does is for an orchid. One tree may bear a few wormy, naughty little apples, scarcely. fit for the pigs, while another of the same variety is loaded with great red-cheeked fruit of the most toothsome description. The reason for the difference is obvious. One tree grows in a grassy tangle of bushes with no room to develop, little chance to get sunlight and scant opportunity to obtain nourishment because of the abundance of other plants and the poverty and thinness of the unfurtilized soil. The other stands in the midst of a carefully tilled garden where it has plenty of room to expand and enjoy the sun, and where its roots can spread widely in a deep,

Starting point is 00:02:02 mellow, well-furtilized soil. Moreover, one tree is burned with dead wood in succors, and infested with insects and other parasites, where the other is carefully pruned, scraped, and sprayed. In spite of the most careful and intelligent cultivation, a tree of the finest variety may fail to produce good fruit. Too much rain or too little, prolonged heat or constant cloudiness, frost when the blossoms are opening or violent wind and hail may all be disastrous. The choices tree without water is worth less than the poorest

Starting point is 00:02:37 where the temperature and rainfall are proper deuce. Its health is ruined and it can bear no fruit. Here as in the preceding case the great need of the trees is health in the fullest and broader sense. A good climate, good cultivation

Starting point is 00:02:54 and good nourishment are merely means of giving the tree perfect health and thus allowing the fullest development of its inheritance. Thus the two great factors which really determine the quality of the fruit are inheritance and health. The other factors, namely, food, climate, parasites and cultivation are important chiefly as means whereby health, or perchance, inheritance is modified. Does the fruit known as civilization depend upon these same conditions? It seems to me that it does.

Starting point is 00:03:27 Few would question that a race with a superb mental and physical inheritance and endowed with perfect health is capable of adding indefinitely to the cultural inheritance received from its ancestors and thus may attain the highest civilization. But if that same cultural inheritance were given to a sickly race with a weak inheritance of both mind and body, there would almost surely be degeneration. Aside from biological inheritance,

Starting point is 00:03:54 the main factors in determining health are a clear, climate, food, parasitic diseases, and a people's stage of culture, which corresponds to the cultivation of the tree. Moreover, these same four factors, through their potency, inslifting some type of preservation and others for destruction, and perhaps through their power to cause mutations are among the main agencies in determining inheritance. Climate stands first, not because it is the most important, but merely because it is the most fundamental. It is fundamental by reason of its vital innocence upon the quantity and quality, not only of man's food, but of most of his other resources. It plays a large

Starting point is 00:04:39 part in determining the distribution and virulence of the parasites which caused the majority of diseases, and through its effect upon human occupations, modes of life and habits. It is one of the main determinants of culture. On the other hand, neither food, disease nor culture has any appreciable effect upon climate, although they may modify its influence. Moreover, climate has a direct effect upon health in addition to its indirect effect through food, disease and mode of life. Hence, although climate may be no more important than other factors in determining the relative degree of progress in different parts of the world, it is more fundamental in the sense that it is a cause rather than a result of other factors.

Starting point is 00:05:31 studying climate is essential to draw a sharp distinction between three types of influences in the first place climate has direct effect upon man's health and activity second is a strong indirect but immediate effect through food and other resources through parasites and through mode of life third by its combined direct and indirect effects in the past it has been a strong factor some would say the strongest in causing migration racial mixture and natural selection, and may have had some to do with producing the variations which the biologists call mutations. Thus it has a powerful effect upon inheritance. From the

Starting point is 00:06:17 days of Aristotle to those of Montesquio and Bucco, there have been good thinkers who have believed that the direct effect of climate is the most important factor in determining the differences between the degree of progress in various parts of the earth. Others have helped that wherever food is available for a moderately dense population, a man can avoid diseases like tropical malaria, human culture can rise to the highest levels. The location in the world's great nations seems to them largely a matter of accident. The majority of people reject both these extreme views. View doubt that climate has an important relation to civilization, but the majority consider it less important than racial

Starting point is 00:07:03 inheritance, proper food, or good institutions in the form of church, state and home. We realize that a dense and progressive population does not live in the far north or in the deserts simply because the difficulty of getting a living grinds men down and keeps them isolated. We know that the denizens of the torrid zone are slow and backward, and we all must universally agree that this is connected with the damp, steady heat. We continually give concrete expression to our faith in climate. Not only do we talk about the weather more than about any other one topic, but we visit the seashore or the mountains for a change of air.

Starting point is 00:07:42 We go south in winter and to cool places in summer. We are depressed by a series of cloudy days and feel exuberant on a clear, bracing morning after a storm. Yet in spite of this universal recognition of the importance of climate, we rarely assign it to a foremost place as a condition of civilization. We point out that great nations have developed in such widely diverse climates as the hot plants of Mesopotamia and Yakutern, and the cool hill country of Norway and Switzerland.

Starting point is 00:08:15 Moreover, although Illinois and southern Mongolia lie in the same latitude and have the same mean temperature, they differ enormously in civilization. To put the matter in another way, we recognize two great sets of facts which are apparently contradictory. We are conscious of being stimulated or depressed by climatic conditions, and we know that as one goes northward or southward, the distribution of civilisation is generally in harmony with what we should expect on the basis of our own climatic experiences. Nevertheless, even in our own day, regions which lie in the same latitude and apparently have equally stimulating climates differed greatly in their degree of civilization.

Starting point is 00:08:58 When we compare the past with the present, we find the same contradiction still more distinctly marked, hence our confusion. From personal experience, we know that the direct effects of climate are of tremendous importance. Your many facts seem to indicate that this importance is less than our observation would lead us to anticipate. The reason for this doubtful attitude can easily be discovered. The things that we call facts are of our own. often not well established. Although we believe in the influence of climate, we know little of the particular climatic elements which are most stimulating or depressing. How much do we know of the relative importance of barometric pressure, wind, temperature or humidity? What about the comparative

Starting point is 00:09:45 effects of the climate of England and southeastern Russia? In addition to this, we are far from knowing what type of climate prevailed in Egypt, Greece, or Mesopotamia when they rose to eminence. Many good authorities have asserted that the climate of those regions was the same two or three thousand years ago as now. This view is rapidly losing ground, but those who believe in a change are not certain of its nature. They are not yet wholly agreed as to whether it is produced an important influence upon the particular chromatic elements, which are most stimulating to the human system. This book has been written because two reason lines of investigation apparently combined to explain at least part of the contradictions which of hitherto proved so puzzling.

Starting point is 00:10:32 In the first place, a prolonged study of past and present climatic variations led to conclusion that the climate of the past was different from that of the present. In early historic times, for example, some parts the world appear to have been dry either now, and other parts moisture. In any given place, however, the change from the past to the present has not consisted of a steady progressive tenancy in one direction, but of variations. In the places that were falling moisture than now, there appear to have been alternate changes toward dryness and then toward moisture, while in the places that are drier than in the past, there have been corresponding variations of the opposite types.

Starting point is 00:11:13 In a word, the climate of historic times see to have undergone a pronounced series of pulsations, which have a varying character from one part of the earth to another. The second line of investigation which originally led to the writing of this book was a study of the climatic conditions under which people of European races are able to accomplish the most work and have the best health. This investigation led to the conclusion that the principle of climatic octumar applies to man quite as fully as to plants and animals. According to this principle, each living species has the best health and is most active under certain definite conditions of temperature, humidity, wind movement, storminess, variability and sunlight, or more exactly, under certain combinations of these conditions. Any departure from the optimum conditions leads to a decrease of activity and efficiency. During the last ten years, the importance of racial inheritance and racial selection has been strongly emphasized.

Starting point is 00:12:14 In the first edition of civilization and climate, the importance of race is strongly emphasized, but I failed to see how important a part has been played by climatic changes in slitherto. selecting certain types of people for destruction or preservation. Such selection is apparently one of the chief ways in which the character of races is altered. The climatic pulsations of the glacial, postglacial and historic periods appear to have exerted a profound influence upon the degree of habitability of different parts of the earth. Thus, famine, distress and disease have arisen, and the pressure of population has led to migration, racial mixture, and the preservation of one type of people in one place and another somewhere else. Natural selection under the stress of climate goes far toward explaining many of the cases

Starting point is 00:13:03 where the distribution of civilization does not agree with what would be expected on the basis of the direct effect of climate. So important is this, that I've written a book on The Character of Races for the express purpose of applying the principles of natural selection to the history of racial development. That book might well have been called Civilization and Race, in order to emphasize a fact that it is a continuation of the present work. The change in my own realization of the part played by climatic changes

Starting point is 00:13:37 is one of the chief reasons why the present edition of Civilization and Climate is in some respects almost a new book. A large part of the reasoning of this book stands or falls with the hypothesis of climatic pulsations in historic times. The steps which led to the hypothesis may be briefly sketched as follows. In 1908,

Starting point is 00:14:00 under the inspiration of the broad vision of Raphael Pumperley and the carefully scientific methods of William Morris Davies, I began to study the climate of the past. Two years' work with the Pumperley expedition sent to Turkestan by the Kansi Institute of Washington

Starting point is 00:14:16 led the conviction that Riples, Kropotkin and others are correct and believe that two or three thousand years ago the climate of Central Asia was moistered than now, a view which I advocated in explorations in Turkestan. Later during the Barrett expedition to Chinese Turkestan, it became evident that the scientists who hold that the ancient climate in those regions was as dry as that of today also have much strong evidence to support their view.

Starting point is 00:14:48 It soon appeared, however, that this apparent contradiction is fully explained by the fact that throughout the dry regions in Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean, the evidences of moist and dry conditions, respectively, are grouped in distinct periods. The beginning of the Christian area was moist, for example, and the 7th century dry. This led to what I have called the Pulsatory hypothesis, which finished a name for the Pulse of Asia. According to this hypothesis, although the historic and prehistoric past in those particular regions, was in general moisture than the present. The change from moisture dry has taken place

Starting point is 00:15:26 in breakably in great waves. Even in early historic times, certain centuries were apparently drier than today, while others not long ago were moist. In 1909, this view was confirmed during the yearl expedition to Palestine, the results of which had set forth in Palestine and its transformation.

Starting point is 00:15:48 Then a series of journeys in the drier parts the United States and New Mexico and Central America, in cooperation with D.T. McDowell of the Desert Botanical Laboratory of the Carnegie Institution, show that the main features of previous conclusions apparently apply to the new world as well as the old. The most important feature of this work in America was the measurement of the thickness of the annual rings or growth of some 450 of the big trees of California. The sequonia, washing Toniana, which grows high in the Ceres. These measurements made it possible to form a fairly reliable climatic curve for 2,000 years,

Starting point is 00:16:31 and an approximate curve for another thousand. The final data as to the big trees were published in the Clomatic Factor, which appeared in 1915 at the same time as Civilization and Climate. The agreement of the California curve, with the climatic curve for Western Asia previously worked out, and the constant growing evidence as to the reliability of tree growth as a measure of climate have done far more than anything else to cause the hypothesis of climatic pulsations to be widely accepted. Here is the way the matter is summed up by the British meteorologist C.E.P. Brooks in his book on The Evolution of Climate 1922.

Starting point is 00:17:13 The question of climatic change during the historic period has been the subject of much discussion, and several great meteorologists and geographers have endeavored to prove that at least since around 500 BC, there has been no appreciable variation. It is admitted that there have been shiftings of the centres of population and civilization, first from Egypt and Mesopotamia to the Mediterranean regions, and lettered to northern and western Europe. But these have been attributed chiefly to political causes, and especially to the rise of Islam and the rule of the accursed Turk.

Starting point is 00:17:52 Reasonally, however, there has arisen a class evidence which cannot be explained away on political grounds, and which appears to have decided the battle in favour of the supporters of change. I refer to the evidence of the trees. The conclusions derived from the big trees of California have fallen admirably into line with archaeological work in Central America, in Central Asia and other regions, and have shown that the larger variations, even of comparatively recent times,

Starting point is 00:18:22 have been very extensive, if not worldwide, in their development. Another important factor in perfecting the pulsatory hypothesis has been the study of the Maya ruins in Yucatan and Guatemala. They join with other evidence in suggesting that changes of climate are of different types in different parts of the world. Central America seems to have been relatively dry at times when the big trees of the Sierrez suggests that California was moist.

Starting point is 00:18:54 This is an important modification of some of the conclusions which I have seemed to imply in earlier books. At practically the same time when this newer conclusion was published, an almost identical idea was presented by J.W. Gregory of England, whose article is U.S. drawing up in the Geographical Journal for 1914, is the strongest criticism of my climatic theories that have ever appeared. It will be discussed more fully later. The fact that two investigators who seem to be opposed

Starting point is 00:19:27 should independently publish the same conclusions without knowing what the other was doing greatly strengthens the force of that conclusion. Having reached the conclusion that pulsatory climatic changes have taken place during historic time, times and have differed in type from region to region. The next step was to study the mechanism and cause of the supposed changes. In Palestine and the eastern Mediterranean, the conditions of vegetation, especially the palm and vine,

Starting point is 00:19:56 as Gregory has well shown, make it almost certain that variations in storminess and rainfall rather than in temperature have been the primary factor. The recorded observations upon the mild climatic pulsations the past hundred years support this conclusion. Conclusion. Various lines of evidence also indicate that climatic pulsations probably consist of a shifting of the Earth's climatic zones, or at least, of the areas of cyclonic storms alternately toward and away from the equator. The idea as to Zines, although not as to storms, was announced by the German geologist Panic

Starting point is 00:20:37 at essentially the same time that I announced it, but the two conclusions were wholly independent and were based on quite different data. In both cases it was specially recognized that the same kinds of climatic shiftings have taken place both in prehistoric and historic times, although the earlier changes were of greater magnitude. In these shiftings, the temperate zone of storms appears to have been shoved irregularly back and forth. When it was farther south, then at present, the subtropical countries, which now as subarid, must have been relatively moist.

Starting point is 00:21:11 At the same time, the subtropical arid belt was apparently shifted towards the water. the equator so that on the borders of the toad zone certain lands which now are wet were then relatively dry when their shifting concerns took place in the opposite direction the reverse changes of climate apparently took place it was only after the preceding conclusions as to climatic pulsations had reached essentially their present form that had begun the next phase of the investigation namely the study of the actual effect of present climates upon human health and activity. This is important because some critics have supposed that I have unduly emphasized the importance of climatic changes or have even formed a theory in regard to them for the purpose of bolstering up a preconceived idea that differences of climate from place to place are a main cause of the present distribution of human progress. On the contrary, up to this period, my reasoning had been somewhat as follows. If climatic changes have occurred

Starting point is 00:22:15 during historic times, there must have had some economic effect because such changes altered the capacity of region to support population. The economic changes in their turn must have led to political disturbances and migrations. Is there any evidence of such events at times when the climate suffered unusually great or rapid changes? The possibility of such a connection between climate and history has deeply interested a great number of students. Kropotkin, for instance, has vividly portrayed the way in which gradual desiccation of Asia presumably drove into Europe the hordes of barbarians whose invasions were so important

Starting point is 00:22:55 a feature of the dark ages. If the changes from the climate to the past to that at present had been marked by pulsations rather than by a progressive change in only one direction, and if there had been certain periods of rather rapid change and of great, though temporary extremes, as seems highly probable. The correspondence between historic events and climatic pericitudes may be closer than would otherwise seem credible. Indeed, as soon as I had framed a preliminary outline of the curve of climatic changes during historic times, it appears that though many of the great nations of antiquity had risen or favorable conditions of climate. During periods of drought, not only are the

Starting point is 00:23:42 people of the drier regions forced to migrate, especially if they are nomads. But increasing heridity, even in more favoured places such as Greece, must cause economic distress and thus engender famine, misery, and general discontent and lawlessness. A recent journey to China, which gave an opportunity for a study of the famines and barbarian invasions that afflicted their country for 2,000 years, has added greatly to the already abundant evidence of the true for this view. It has also been emphasized the remarkably intimate connection between economic distress and political discontent, a connection which is obvious in advanced countries like the United States, Australia and Europe, as well as in backward regions like China, Persia, India

Starting point is 00:24:30 and Mexico. While these economic and political effects of climatic changes were being studied, I became more and more impressed by the fact that when each country brought to a high level of civilization, it appears in a general way to have enjoyed a climate, which approached more closely than now to certain well-defined conditions. These conditions appear to resemble, by by no means duplicate, those now prevailing in most of the regions where civilization is highest. In spite of marked variations, the general tendency during periods of high civilization has apparently been toward cool, but not extremely cold winters, and toward summers which though warm or even hot for several months are generally varied by storms,

Starting point is 00:25:18 or at least by winds which produce frequent changes of temperature. It became especially evident that a relatively high degree of storminess and a relatively long duration of the season on cyclotic storms have apparently been characteristic of the places where civilization has risen to high levels both in the past and at present. Hence such places experience much variability, a condition which latter work has led me to believe highly beneficial. Up to this point in my investigations,

Starting point is 00:25:50 I saw no ground for appealing to anything except economic and political factors in explanations of the apparent connection between civilization and climate. Then a little book on Malaria, a neglected factor in the history of Greece and Rome, by WHS Jones convinced me that climatic changes have altered the conditions of health as well as the economic situation.

Starting point is 00:26:15 Later studies indicate that in other countries such as Central America, Indo-China, Java and Egypt, as well as Greece and Rome, changes in the amount of virulence of such diseases as malaria and yellow fever may have been pointed factors in

Starting point is 00:26:30 diminishing the vitality of a nation. In fact, it now seems probable that though their effect on bacteria on the water supply, on the breeding places of insects, on the quality of the food, and perhaps in other ways, climatic changes may exert quite as much effect as though the more direct economic channels. The study of diseases was a natural prelude to a closer inquiry into the fact that at times a favorable climate in countries such as Egypt and Greece, that people were apparently filled with a viral energy which they do not now possess.

Starting point is 00:27:04 Many authorities attribute the loss of this to an inevitable decay which must overtake a nation as old age overtakes an individual. Others ascribe it to the lack of adaptability in various institutions, to increasing luxury, to contact with inferior civilisations, to a change in racial inheritance, or to various other factors, most of which are doubtless of importance. previous to 1911, a few authorities such as O. Frass had connected the decline of energy in Egypt, for example, with climatic changes. But they gave so few reasons, and the whole matter seemed so doubtful, that I had little faith in their suggestions. At that time, Charles J. Comer of Saitoq's University, sent me a manuscript calling attention to the remarkable similarity between the distribution of Scydokou's University. sent me a manuscript calling attention to the remarkable similarity between the distribution of cyclonic storms and of civilization. His article was never published, but was presented at a meeting of the Association of American Geographers.

Starting point is 00:28:07 He advanced the idea that the barometric changes which are the primary cause of storms, or perhaps some electrical phenomena which accompany them, may produce a stimulus which has much to do with advancement of civilization. Although he presented no definite proof, his suggestions seemed so important that I determined to carry out a plan which had long ago been in mind. This was to ascertain the exact effect of different types of climate by means of precise measurements. Dexter, in his book on Weather Influencers, had made a beginning. Lehman and Pedersen had made a small series of measurements whose highly suggested results have been published under the title Des Wetter and Uncier Abiyat.

Starting point is 00:28:56 A few physicians and students of child psychology were also at work and the results have been summed up in such publications as Helpex Geophysic Eschamangen and Berlanders influence from climate wetter and

Starting point is 00:29:13 gerizates of the Nevren and Selen Leben Nevertheless, there existed no large series of measurements of the actual efficiency of ordinary people under different conditions of climate. The ideal way to determine the effect of climate would be to take a given group of people and measure their activity daily for a long period, first in one climate and then in another. This, however, would not be practical because of the great expense, and still more because the result would be open to question. If people were thus moved from place to place, it would be almost impossible to be sure that all conditions except climate remained uniform. If the climate differed markedly in the two places, the houses, food and clothing would also have to be different. Social conditions would change. New interest would stimulate some people and depress others.

Starting point is 00:30:11 Hence, no such experiment now seems practicable. The most available method is apparently to take a group of people who live, in a variable climate and tests them at all seasons. The best test is a man's daily work, a thing to which he devotes most of his time and energy. Accordingly, I took the records of four groups of people, namely some 500 factory operatives in three Connecticut cities, New Haven, New Britain, and Bridgeport,

Starting point is 00:30:40 three or four thousand operatives in southern cities from Virginia to Florida, and over 1,700 students at the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis and the Military Academy at West Point. In most cases, each person's record covered an entire year, or at least the academic year. All the records were compared with the weather, as explained in latter chapters. The results were surprising. Changes in the barometer seem to have little effect. Humidity apparently possesses considerable importance,

Starting point is 00:31:12 but the most important element is clearly temperature. The people here considered were physically most. when the average temperature ranged from 60 degrees to 65 degrees Fahrenheit. That is, when the noon temperature rose to 70 degrees or more, while the night temperature fell to 55 degrees or so. This is higher than many of us would expect. Mental activity, however, reached a maximum when the outside temperature averaged about 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That is, when there were mild frosts at night. Another highly important climatic condition seems to be the change of temperature from one day to the next.

Starting point is 00:31:53 People did not work well when the temperature remained constant. Great changes were also unfavorable. The ideal condition or optimum seemed to be mild winters with some frosts, mild summers with the temperature rarely above 75 degrees Fahrenheit, and a constant succession of mild storms and moderate changes of weather from day to day. The facts just seem to be of great significance, as will be fully explained in this book. They suggest that the weather exerts a rather large and easily measurable effect upon man's capacity for both physical and mental work. This conclusion naturally led to a query as to how the climates in different parts of the world vary in their importance of human efficiency. Accordingly, I constructed a map showing how human energy would be distributed throughout the world

Starting point is 00:32:43 if all the Earth's inhabitants were influenced as worth of 15,000 people or the four American groups mentioned above. This map was found to agree, to a remarkable extent, with a map of the present distribution of civilization, based on the opinions of about 50 geographers, and other widely informed men in a dozen countries of America, Europe and Asia. Moreover, it agreed with the conclusions previously drawn as to the relation of climatic changes to the civilization of the past.

Starting point is 00:33:13 Take, for example, the decadent countries as to whose past climate we have some definite idea. In practically every case, the climate during their more flourishing periods appears to have approached the optimum, as determined in the United States more nearly than the present. This does not mean that the climate of Egypt, North India, China, Greece, or the Maya regions in Guatemala, wherever like that of either in New York or California. It really means that it approached more closely than at present to one or the other of these American types. Hence at the time of its greatness, each region apparently enjoyed more than its present advantages in economic conditions, in freedom-porn parasitic diseases and a direct climatic stimulus.

Starting point is 00:34:03 When my investigations had reached this point, the first edition of Civilization and Climate was written. during the nine or ten years that have since elapsed not only has much new evidence come to light but my own point of view has changed considerably the changes are set forth in the series of books and articles listed in the preface to the present third edition they are referred to at some length of latter chapters but may you be briefly summarised

Starting point is 00:34:32 the comments on civilization and climate by historians and others make it more and more evident that the crux of the hypothesis of this book lies in changes of climate. The question, however, is not whether the climate of ancient Egypt, for example, was like that of modern England? It certainly was not and never could be. The contrast of the two countries in latitude, topography, and relation to land and sea, makes any such close resemblance impossible. The real question is this. When Egypt arose to its greatest heights, did its climate?

Starting point is 00:35:07 approach appreciably nearer than now to the type which provides the optimum condition of energy health and economic strength for a people in the early egyptian stage of development. Bear in mind that when the ancient Egyptians first rose to a state approaching civilization, they had not yet learned to use iron tools. Even in later days they had nothing like our modern skill using wood and coal for heating houses. In manufacturing cotton and woolen cloth on such a scale that even the poor, can be warmly clothed, in building houses that are proof against wind, rain and cold. Nor had they a skill in combating disease. Hence their stage development caused the optimum climate to be warmer for them than for us. We are able to guard ourselves against low temperature and exposure,

Starting point is 00:35:57 and thus gain an important stimulus without suffering much harm. They could not withstand cold windows. Bearing in mind then that the optimum climate ferreys according to, to a nation's stage of civilization, and also that there is doubtless some difference in the optimum from race to race. Our problem becomes to determine how far the climate of the past in a given region was like that which is best for the stage of human progress, and perhaps the race, with which we happen to be dealing.

Starting point is 00:36:28 This point of view is slightly different from that of the first edition of this book. The changes due largely to Gilfilan's article on the Coldward Course of Progress in the Political science quarterly 1920. So far as changes of climate are concerned, the ten news since this book was written have seen considerable new evidence as to the reality and nature of historic as well as prehistoric pulsations. As an entire new chapter will be devoted to this matter and as the comment of Brooks on the convincing character of the evidence has already been quoted, it is evident to point out here an interesting fact as to the kind of people who have

Starting point is 00:37:08 the conclusions of this book. The non-scientific public, which has doubtless been the widest audience of civilization and climate, has accepted the book on the reasonableness of its main hypothesis, and with an open mind as to future proof or disproof. Geologists, archaeologists, and those geographers who have had a geological training are the types of scientists who have found the hypothesis most convincing. This is because most of the methods of the methods of the methods of the Most of the methods of reasoning and lines of evidence employed in discussions of climate change

Starting point is 00:37:43 are such as are commonly used in geology, archaeology, and geography. The evidence consists chiefly of ancient lakes and streams, all groads and deserts, dead vegetation and its rings of annual growth, abandoned fields and irrigation systems, and especially ruins and other traces of man, which are really human fossils. Such evidence appeals to geologists, archaeologists, and geologists. trained geographers. Anthropologists, economists and historians, on the other hand, have been slow to believe that climatic changes have had much influence upon human history. They accept, indeed, the geologist's conclusion that previous to recorded history,

Starting point is 00:38:28 great climatic changes drove man this way and that, destroyed ancient types of culture, and either wiped whole race out of existence, or profoundly modified them physically, mentally and socially. They apparently have no difficulty in accepting the geological evidence that among primitive men, as among plants and animals, climate has been one of the most powerful factors in determining the distribution and vigour of different types. But when it comes to the period of written history, many historians and some anthropologists and economists no longer trust the geological methods of reasoning. Their opinions are more or less uncautiously mordered by two widely accepted assumptions. The first assumption is that climatic uniformity is a normal condition. This idea seems wholly untenable in view of the constant growing evidence of numerous and important glacial periods and other extreme types of climate at all stages in geological history.

Starting point is 00:39:26 The more we know of the geological record, the more clear it becomes a change, not uniformity is the rule. Even in the long periods when the larger types of climatic changes have been absent, there is abundant evidence of minor fluctuations and pulsations. The second assumption is equally doubtful. It holds that written records and statistics are more reliable than the geological type of evidence. Of course, written records and statistics are far more reliable than any other types of evidence, if they are sufficiently full, if they can be trusted, and if they're prepared by people who are conscious of the purpose for which they are to be used.

Starting point is 00:40:05 But the written and recorded evidence as to the clums, of the past consists of many scraps of information, set down in most cases accidentally, and with no idea of their possible significance in the distant future. Such evidence has, of course, great value and must be studied assiduously. Nevertheless, it is inevitably subordinate to the geological type of evidence which may be either physiographic, botanical, or archaeological. It seems clear, then, that the ultimate decision as to whether a climatic changes have taken place on a large scale during historical times does not rest with historians.

Starting point is 00:40:45 It rests primarily with persons who are trained in climatological and especially geological methods. During the last 10 years, geographers as a whole, in spite of some exceptions, seem to have become persuaded that the historical period has witnessed a series of climatic pulsations like those of the prehistoric or post-classial period, although on a smaller scale. According to the poem written statement in answer to a questionnaire, over nine-tenths of the geographers of America, if we may judge from the 50 who have expressed their opinions, hold this view, although they are not quite so fully agreed as to how great the effect of these positions upon man may have been. Of course it is possible that a few geographers fail to answer the questionnaire because they do not wish to express an opinion contrary to mine. I think, however, that the number of such is very limited. For most of those who are known to hold views on log my own, expressed them freely.

Starting point is 00:41:47 Even when all due allowance is made for failures to answer, it seems clear that among the people who are best competent to weigh the evidence, the great maturity believe in pulsations of climate. If these geographers with a geological training are right, there seems to be no escape from the conclusion that during certain periods of Asian history, the climate of places like Egypt, Mesopotamia, and North India approached the optimum more closely than at present. Since the lowest stage of culture in those early days,

Starting point is 00:42:18 presumably caused the optimum temperature for human progress to be higher, that is now the case among the most advanced races. The climatic conditions were even more favorable than I realized when this book was first written. If this conclusion is well grounded, it becomes a basic fact which the historian must take into account, just as every careful student of early man now continually takes account of the fact that primitive man was greatly influenced by the vicissitudes of the successive glacial epochs, and just as every economist recognizes that modern man on a smaller scale is profoundly influenced by good of bad crops. History can never be written correctly until its physical basis is thoroughly understood,

Starting point is 00:43:04 and until it is recognized at economic conditions, the human health and energy ferre from age to age, almost as much as due to the conditions of politics, religion, and personality. Another line, where there has been much progress in the last 10 years, is the determination of the nature and importance of the climatic optimum for man's physical development and health, as opposed to his economic development. After civilization and climate had been completed, I undertook a study of the relation of deaths to climate. The results appeared in world power and evolution.

Starting point is 00:43:43 Some 8.5 million deaths in about 60 cities in the United States and 30 in France in Italy were analyzed according to the average weather of each month during periods which in most cases amounted to at least 10 years. except for about 400,000 in the United States, all the deaths occurred during the normal period immediately preceding the Great War. In addition to this, about 50 million deaths in other countries were analyzed less intensively,

Starting point is 00:44:12 but was essentially the same results. On the other hand, about 700,000 deaths in New York from 1877 to 1888 have been very mildly analyzed according to the day of death. For the six years, 1883 to 1888 the number of deaths each day is being compared with the weather day by day during the two weeks ending with the day of death in another

Starting point is 00:44:38 investigation 7,000 total of deaths from Lobar Pumonia in New York in 1913 were compared with the weather for each day again in the two largest hospitals in Boston the relation of the weather to 2,300 deaths succeeding operations was looked into At a later date, the death rate during the influence of the epidemic of 1918, the United States was analysed by still a different method in order to determine whether the weather had any effect in altering the rate from city to city. The net results of these investigations, as shown in world power and evolution, and in various technical articles, agree closely with those of the investigation of factory workers and students. They confirm the work of other investigators in showing almost beyond question that there is a very important question that there is a very important question. a distinct optimal condition of climate for man, just as for plants and animals.

Starting point is 00:45:35 This optimum varies relatively little from one set of people to another, or from place to place. Even for Negroes, the departure from the white standard is by no means so large as will be expected, though it is unmistakable. Any departure from the optimum for a given race or individual seems to render people not only less efficient, but also more susceptible. to disease and hence an easier prey to bacteria and other parasites. Moreover, as it appears in world power and evolution, there is some evidence that departures from the ultimate climate rendered people less buoyant,

Starting point is 00:46:13 less capable of prolonged and steady mental activity, and corresponding less likely to make progress. The significant fact about the whole matter is that, so far as I am aware, in every case where large bodies of people have been carefully analyzed, the same minor responses to climate become evident, even though there may be differences in details. Thus the progress for the last 10 years seems to add appreciably to the general certainty as to the nature and importance of climatic

Starting point is 00:46:44 octama, and as to the effect of departures therefrom upon health, efficiency and progress. The difference between the present and first editions of this book in respect to natural selection and racial inheritance is especially important. It may be illustrated by ancient Greece. In the first edition, I suppose that the reason for the peculiar ability of Greece was a mystery which there was no immediate prospect of solving. It was a result of some unexplained biological processes. I believe that no matter where those particular people might have gone, or what period they had happened to live, they would have achieved much more than any ordinary people. As events actually shaped themselves, the ancient Greeks migraine.

Starting point is 00:47:33 to a land near more ancient centres of civilisation whence they could receive the inspiration of the greatest receding cultures. By reason of the numerous gulfs and harbours of their land, the Greeks were easily able to get what they wanted from other countries, provided they had energy enough to sail abroad for material riches, and capacity enough to absorb the mental riches with which they came in contact. So far as climate is concerned, Greece This appears to have enjoyed unusually favorable conditions throughout most of the period from perhaps 1,300 BC, and especially about 400 BC. Previous to 1,100 BC, however, there seems to have been an unfavorable period culminating perhaps 1,300 to 1,200 years before Christ. While at a letter date, a period of rapid climatic degeneration from 300 to 200 BC was followed.

Starting point is 00:48:33 followed by highly unfaithful conditions during the succeeding century. The favorable climate during the period of the greatest creation development apparently rendered the economic conditions distinctly more favorable than those of today, and stimulated the Greeks to a higher degree of physical and mental energy. At the same time it rendered the environment unfavorable not only to the anaphylis mosquito which causes malaria, but to other disease-bearing organisms. Thus the Greeks with their high inheritance enjoyed an environment which gave full opportunity for the development of the best that was in them.

Starting point is 00:49:13 The fall of Greece, according to the hypothesis set forth in this book 10 years ago, was greatly influenced by rapid deterioration of climate. In the 3rd century BC, a decrease in Mayfall caused the most serious stimulation in the capacity of Greece to support population. This increased the political difficulties while the same thing. time the ability of the people to cope with such difficulties was diminished by decline in stimulating qualities of the climate. At the same time, the increase in marshes and stagnant pools because of changed conditions of rainfall may the environment favourable for malarial mosquitoes,

Starting point is 00:49:54 while poverty, a poor food supply, and other adverse conditions also fostered disease. In general, the poor economic and political situation and the unfavorable conditions of health tended to kill off the blonde and horse invaders who seem to have been the leaders among the early Greeks. At present, my view of the rise and fall of Greece differs from the ones set forth above in only one respect. But that is highly important. Instead of recognizing natural selection

Starting point is 00:50:26 as an important cause merely of the decline of Greece, I now regarded as one of the main causes of the rise of that country. The people who made Greece great, as I have shown in detail in the character of races, were primarily the Dorians and especially the Ionians. These people appear to have originated far to the north, perhaps in the Great Plains of Russia. There came to Greece in a series of migrations,

Starting point is 00:50:54 the first of which may have been that of the Icaans in the 14th century before Christ, while a later invasion culminated in the Doerian invasion two or three centuries later. The Ionians appeared of being largely Greeks, of the old Ocean and Manoan upper class, who were led to migrate by the prolonged disturbances and fighting which harassed Greece for generations and perhaps centuries after the Dorian invasion. Had ago had previously been almost depopulated

Starting point is 00:51:24 and did not attract the Dorians because it was infertile and poverty-stricken by reason of its dryness. Later, however, perhaps in part because of the amelioration of climate, it became the refuge of large numbers of the old upper classes from the rest of Greece. when its population became too dense some of the settlers together with many of the more able and energetic people from other parts of greece went across the agian sea eastward to the oean coast of asia minor now we are expressly told by thucydides and others not only that the settlers in attica were a highly selected group from the leading families for the rest of greece but that they strenuously kept themselves apart from the lower classes even if an athenian married a woman of the lower classes his children followed the social status of the mother and not the father thus among the citizens of athens a selected inheritance was kept almost unimpaired for many centuries

Starting point is 00:52:26 but note another important fact not only was there a rigid selection of good material when the ionians settled in athens but there appears to have been a perhaps more rigorous selection during the earlier migrations of the people who finally became greeks Every migration is more or less selective because the weak, the feeble, the cowardly, and those lacking the spirit of adventure, together with those who lack determination, are gradually weeded out. The longer and more difficult the migration, the more strenuous is the selection, especially among women and children. All but the most vigorous, both mentally and physically, are weeded out with peculiar rapidity. Thus the net result of practically every long, difficult migration in which women as well as men take part is to pick out a relatively small group of people of unusual capacity. The group may contain only 1 out of 20, or 1 out of 100 or 1,000 of the original stock.

Starting point is 00:53:24 Now the Athenians, as we have just seen, went through this selection twice, and may have gone through it at earlier times also. They also maintain the quality of the original stock, more or less completely, by refraining from intermarriage with any but the elite of other regions, and by various practices, so as in Phanticide, which eliminated weaklings. Such selection with various modifications has been, I believe, one of the most effective factors in producing competent races. But what does this to do with climate? Much because a large number of the migrations of history appear to have been more or less directly started by climatic fixitudes. For example, the Irish migration to America

Starting point is 00:54:06 during the 19th century was due largely to the fact that a series of good potato harvests in the early decades of the century permitted the population of Ireland to increase enormously, then it came a series of unduly rainy years, accompanied by bad crops. Famine and distress ensued, and immediately an enormous migration to America set in.

Starting point is 00:54:28 In later years, as is shown by Booker's data, which I have cited in an article on, A neglected factor in race development, Journal of Race Development, October at 1915. The migrations from Ireland, and likewise from Germany, to the United States and varied in close harmony with the climatic conditions and

Starting point is 00:54:45 consequent agricultural prosperity of both the old world and the new. When the crops are bad in Europe but good in America as is not uncommon, immigration from the old world is greatly stimulated for a few years. On the contrary a period of bad crops in America coincided with good crops in Europe gradually diminishes the pressure which leads to migration. Similar examples on a large scale have occurred from time, in the history of China, Central Asia and other regions. Contrary to the common belief, most parts of the world normally contain practically as large a population as they are capable of holding

Starting point is 00:55:24 under the social and economic conditions which happen to prevail at any given time and place. The birth rate among mankind, as Kara Saunders convincingly shows in the population problem, is so large and responds so quickly to economic changes that only a few decades or generations are required for even for even a relatively depopulated country to fill up to what Woodruff in his expansion of races as called the saturation point. Thus the great majority of migrations can be understood only by thinking of all parts of the world as normally having nearly their full quarter of population.

Starting point is 00:56:01 Among primitive hunting tribes, for example, this quota may mean only one person per square mile, while in a modern highly civilized community it may mean a thousand per square mile. The conditions are like those of a bucket filled to the brim of water. As soon as any object is dropped into the bucket, some water runs over. In the same way most parts of the world, any deterioration of economic conditions, such as frequently arises from bad crops, immediately necessitates either a lowering of the standard of living or a diminution of population through an increased death rate by reason of poverty, famine or war, or through migration. A migration, as a rule, is merely a slow drifting of people with unusual energy and initiative from unfavorable to favorable

Starting point is 00:56:47 districts. But not infrequently, and especially after one of the sudden climatic vicissitudes, which have been common in history, it becomes a violent stream of invasion, such as many of the barbarian outpourings about 1,400 to 1,200 years before Christ, and again at various later periods. The original Greeks apparently took part in extensive wanderings of both the mild and violent kind, and natural selection presumably worked among them effectively. The net result was a highly selective race, which gave the world a mildest group of famous men. These men, it appears, accomplished great things,

Starting point is 00:57:27 not only because of their high innate qualities, but because growing favorable climatic conditions from six to four hundred years before Christ improved their economic situation and helped to give them great energy and splendid health. According to this view, Greece apparently lost their ability partially because the fine original stock became mingled with weaker elements, and partially

Starting point is 00:57:48 because the change of climate, which began soon after 400 BC, and which took place most rapidly from 300 to 200 to 200 BC, not only enabled malaria to spread with baleful rapidity, but introduced a stage of diminishing resources, scanty food, supply, overpopulation, and lessened climatic stimulus. These factors presumably combined with other well-known conditions to produce poorer health and perhaps restriction of families among the upper classes, thus killing off the old dominant stock of Northern origin. Hence the racial elements to which Greece owed her greatest disappeared,

Starting point is 00:58:25 and the country fell into intellectual insignificance. Other factors are undoubtedly cooperated, but such conditions as political corruption, social degeneracy, and undue personal ambition are probably results of racial decay and poor health quite as much as causes. The essential point is that, at the beginning, a time of climatic stress among nomads in relatively cool grasslands

Starting point is 00:58:49 seem to have led to migration and a favorable type of selection. Another period of similar stress and a highly developed people in a relatively southern land where there was less opportunity or incentive for migration led to the dying off

Starting point is 00:59:03 of the more able people. Yet even in this case, many of the most competent Greeks migrated, thus still farther impoverishing the mother country at giving rise to highly gifted colonies like the Alexandrian community in Egypt. To sum up the whole hypothesis of the relation of climate to civilization, here are the factors as I see them at present. Most parts of the world are so well populated that any adverse economic change tends to cause distress, disease and a high death rate. Migration ensures among the more energetic and of interest

Starting point is 00:59:41 people. Perhaps the commonest cause of economic distress is variations in weather or climate, which lead to bad crops or to dearth of grass and water for animals. Such economic distress almost inevitably leads to political disturbances, and this again is a potent cause of migrations. The people who migrate, but force expose themselves to hardships, and their numbers diminish until only a selected group of unusually high quality remains. Such people either as warlike invaders, or in small bands enter a new country. They may find a well populated and merely impose themselves as a new rule in class,

Starting point is 01:00:22 as seems to have happened several times in India, or they may find it depleted of people as in Attica. When the period of climatic stress is ended and the climate improves, the dominant newcomers not only possess an unusually strong inheritance, but is stimulated by unusually good economic conditions and by improved conditions of health and energy.

Starting point is 01:00:42 Moreover, since the population is apt to remain below this saturation point so long as the climate improves, the standards of living tend to rise and to become relatively high. Thus, many people are freed from the mere necessity of making a living and have the opportunity to devote themselves to development of new ideas in literature, art, science, politics and other lines of progress. The repeated coincidence between periods of improved climate and periods of cultural progress appears to be due not only to the direct stimulus of climate, as I supposed in the first edition of this book, but to that stimulus combined with a high racial inheritance due to natural selection.

Starting point is 01:01:25 This, I am well aware, by no means, offers a complete explanation of history, for many other elements must also be considered. But it helps to explain many historic events which have hitherto been only partially understood. Here, once more, is a sequence. Climate changes produce economic results through an increase or a diminution of the food supply. Thus there arises either a temporary condition of underpopulation with comparative political tranquility and opportunities for the growth and expanse of civilization, or a condition of overpopulation, with consequent political turmoil, war, migration and the repression of civilization.

Starting point is 01:02:06 This point of view was dominant when I wrote the pulse of Asia and Palestine at its transformation. Climatic changes also appeared to have direct effect in stimulating or repressing man's physical activity, a viewpoint which dominated the first edition of the present book. It is obvious that through their effect upon food, insects, bacteria and man's own powers of resistance, climatic changes must exert a great influence upon disease.

Starting point is 01:02:36 Hence, I was led to write world power and evolution from the standpoint of disease and the death rate, but this does not end the matter. For climate apparently exerts a direct selective effect in preserving a certain type of people and destroying others, and it certainly exerts these effects indirectly through various conditions already mentioned. Therefore, it was only logical that the character of races should centre around natural selection, especially in its climatic aspects. The next step is obviously a study of the relation of climate to mutations and thus to the origin of the new types among which natural selection makes its choice. But that is as yet impossible. Beyond this lies a synthesis of the effects which climate produces through economic and political conditions,

Starting point is 01:03:24 through war and migration, food and natural resources, energy and health, and through natural selection and mutations. And all these results of the climatic environment must be put into due relation, not only with the results of the other factors of physical environment, but with the opposite side of the shield, that is, with the purely human factors such as institutions, customs, ideas, and all man's passions, ideals and aspirations. Then it will be possible to form a true philosophy of history.

Starting point is 01:03:55 Meanwhile, the present edition of Civilization and Climate tries to take a broader and deeper view of human progress, than its predecessor, but it makes no claim to deal exhaustively with more than one small phase of matter, namely the direct effects of climate upon human health and energy. End of Section 1. Section 2 of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Libravox according, or Librevox Accordings from the public domain. For more information on to volunteer, please visit Librevox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey.

Starting point is 01:04:36 Chapter 2. Race or Place The problem which confronts us is primarily to separate the direct effects of climate from those of inheritance, regardless of whether the inheritance has been influenced by the climate of the past. It may be made concrete by comparing two sharply contrasted races, Teutons and Negroes. Suppose that there were two uninhabited Egypt's exactly alike, and that one could be filled with Negroes and the other with Teutons. Suppose that there were two that these settlers were average members of their races and were equipped with the same religion, education, government, social institutions and inventions. This might easily happen if the Negroes came from

Starting point is 01:05:17 the United States. Suppose further that neither race received new settlers from without or lost any except through natural selection, which would succeed best. The Tudence, of course, is the answer. What a foolish question. But is it so foolish? You were thinking of the first generations. I am thinking of the 20th or later. Does anyone know what 500 or a thousand years of life in Egypt would do to either Teutans or Negroes if no new blood were introduced? At the end of that time, the two sets of people would surely be different, for the effect of a diverse inheritance would last indefinitely. The advantage in this respect would presumably be on the side of the Teutans. I wish to emphasize this matter, for I shall have much to say about the effect

Starting point is 01:06:06 of climate and I want to make it perfectly clear that I do not underrate the importance of race. Although the matter is by no means settled, many authorities think that the brain of the white man is more complex than that of his black brother. Strong in the pedagogue hall seminary for 1913 and Morris, in the popular science monthly for 1914, have shown that in Columbia, South Carolina, the white children are mentally more advanced than the colored. By applying the Bennett test to 225 children in two white schools and to 125 children in a coloured school, they obtained the following table, showing the amount by which the two races exceed or fell short of what would be expected.

Starting point is 01:06:50 More than one year backward. Coloured, 29.4%, white 10.2%. Satisfactory, coloured 69.8%, white 84.4%. More than one year advanced. Colored, 0.8%, white 5.3%. Among the white children, those from the middle classes made a better showing than those of factory operatives, but both were ahead of the colored. So far as home environment is concerned, the factory children have almost no advantage over the coloured children. A slight advantage may possibly arise from the fact that when the Binnett tests were originally devised, they were designed to measure the capacities of white children.

Starting point is 01:07:32 The Negro race may have capacities which the white does not possess and which do not play a part in the tests. In appreciation of humour, for example, and the equability of temperament, there can be little question that the black man surpasses the white. These things, however, can scarcely account for the fact that

Starting point is 01:07:51 29.4% of the coloured children showed a mental development more than a year behind that which would be expected from their age, while only 10.2% of the white children were equally backward. So far as I am aware, every exact test which has been made on a large scale indicates mental superiority on the part of the white race,

Starting point is 01:08:13 even when the two races have equal opportunities. For example, in Washington, the coloured children remain in school quite as long as the white, but they do not accomplish so much in the way of study and do not reach so higher grade. In the cities of the south, Mayo and Loram find that when the races are given essentially the same instruction, the proportion of whites who are promoted is greater than that of Negroes.

Starting point is 01:08:39 Moreover, the difference seems to indicate with years, which suggests that the average colored child not only stands below the average white child in mental development at all ages, but ceases to develop at an earlier age. In the high schools of New York, the superiority of the white race is shown by Mayer's examination of the average marks. By the time the children reach high school, the processes of promotion have weeded out a much larger proportion of coloured children than of white. Hence the negroes form a specially selected group whose superiority to the average of their race is more marked than the superiority of the white high school children were compared with the rest of the white race. Nevertheless, the average marks that white children are distinctly higher than those in the colored.

Starting point is 01:09:27 In order to test the capacity of the two races in a wholly different way, I have made a comparison of white and coloured workmen employed under precisely similar conditions. The first case was a cigar factory at Jacksonville, Florida. The employees were practically all Cubans. Both the whites and the blacks have very little education and their home environment in Cuba differs to only the smallest extent. They earn good wages, but are often out of work, and are generally shiftless and unreliable. There is of course no colour line in Cuba, and the same is true in the same is true in the same in the same car factories. Black men and white work side by side at the same tables. In such a

Starting point is 01:10:09 factory if the black man is as capable as the white he has exactly as good a chance, for he is paid by the piece and his earnings depend entirely on himself. What then do we find? Taking all the operatives, we have 39 white and 65 negroes. Their average earnings as measured by the wages of two weeks are in the ratio of 100 for the whites to only 51 for the Negroes. To make the comparison more favorable to the Negroes, let us eliminate those who roll low-grade cigars where little skill is required and the pay is low. We then have 39 white men and 44 Negroes. They are doing exactly the same work under exactly the same conditions, but the whites own a dollar where the Negroes own 75 cents. At a simpler factory at Tampa, Florida, 17 colored men were at work

Starting point is 01:10:59 and 303 white. In this case, practically all of the few. Negroes happen to be men of long experience, while many the whites were comparatively new. Nevertheless, the whites are still on a par with the colored men. The ratio being 100 to 99.8. One of the best places for comparing the two races is the Bahama Islands. For reasons which I shall present later, the process of making poor whites has probably gone farther in the Bahamas than in almost any other Anglo-Saxon community. Parts of the white people are like their race, in other regions, but a large portion have unmistakably degenerated. Witness their intense and bigoted speech, their sunken chinks and eyes,

Starting point is 01:11:43 their cello-complexion, and their inert way of working. In spite of racial prejudice, there is no real colour line in the Bahamas. Persons with more or less Negro blood are worthy occupants of the highest positions and are universally accepted in the most exclusive social circles. The British government gives the Negro every possible opportunity. The state of affairs may be judged from the remarks of a poor white sailor who said to me, You want to know why I likes the southern states better than the north? It's because they hate a nigger and I hates him too.

Starting point is 01:12:18 What kind of a place is this where they do everything for the nigger and nothing for the white man? It's bad enough to have to go to jail, but it's damned hard for a white man to be taken there by a negro constable. In one Bahaman village, I saw Negro girls teaching white children in the public school. In that same village, a number of the leading white men cannot read or write. When they were children, their parents would not send them to school with Negroes. The despised Negroes learned to read and write, but have now largely forgotten those accomplishments. The proud whites grew up in abject ignorance. Today the same thing is going on. I've visited two villages, where the white children are staying away from school because they will not

Starting point is 01:13:01 go to Negro teachers. The homes of such whites are scarcely better than those of their coloured neighbours, and their fathers are called Jim and Jack by the black men with whom they work. Racial pages apparently works more harm to the whites than the blacks. So far as occupations go, there is no difference, for all alike till the soil, sell boats, and gather sponges. When the lumber industry was introduced into the islands, whites and blacks were equally ignorant of the various kinds of work involved in cutting trees and converting them into lumber. The managers do not care who did the work so long as it was done. They want three things, strength, docility, or faithfulness, and brains.

Starting point is 01:13:45 They soon found that in the first two the Negroes were superior. Time and again persons in authority, chiefly Americans, but also some of the more capable Native whites, told me that if they wanted a crew of men to load a boat or some such thing, they would prefer negroes every time. The poor white shirks more than the colored man. He is not so strong, and he is proud and touchy. Other things have been equal, the negro receives the preference. But other things are not equal.

Starting point is 01:14:16 The very men who praise the negroes generally added, but you can't use a negro for everything, they can't seem to learn some things, and they don't know how to boss a job. The paper reflects this, even that the Negroes receive the preference. the 400 who are employed earn on an average only about 60% as much as the 57 white men. If we take only the 57 most competent Negroes, their average daily wages are still only 88% as great as those of the native whites.

Starting point is 01:14:46 The difference is purely a matter of brains. Although the white man may be ignorant and inefficient, with no more training than the Negro, and although his father and grandfather were scarcely better, he possesses an inheritance of mental quickness and initiative which comes into evidence. at the first opportunity. All these considerations seem to point to an in irredictible racial difference in mentality. As a plum differs from the apple, not only in outward form and colour, but in inward flavour, so the negro seems to differ from the white man, not only in feature and complexion, but in the workings of the mind.

Starting point is 01:15:22 No amount of training can eradicate the difference. Cultivation may give us superb plums, but will never take the place of apples. We have tried to convert the black man into an inferior white man, but it cannot be done. Initiative, infettiness, versatility, and the power of leadership are the qualities which give favor to the Teutonic race. Good humour, patience, loyalty, and the power of self-sacrifice give favour to the negro. With proper training, he can accomplish wanderers. No-work can go to a place like Hampton Institute without feeling that there is almost no limit to what may be achieved. by cultivation. In an orderly quiet way, those Negro boys and girls go about their daily

Starting point is 01:16:06 tasks and give one the feeling that they are making a real contribution to the world's welfare. To be sure, they walk slowly. They are not brilliant in their classes, they really have new ideas in their manual work, but yet they are faithful. The willing, happy spirit of their work is something that we nervous, worried white people need sorely to learn. Once in a long time there comes a leader, a man to whom both white and black look up, but such leadership is scarcely the genius of the race. Yet leadership is what the black man must have. At such places as Hampton he gets it, and one realizes that the white man's initiative join to the Christian spirit, which is there so dormant, can give a training which overcomes much of the handicap of race.

Starting point is 01:16:54 Having turned aside to pay tribute to the potency of race, education and religion in determining the status of civilization. Let us come back to physical environment. What part does this play? Is it so important that a strong race in an unfaedible climate is likely to make no better showing than a weak race in a favorable climate? How far can a bad climate under the effect of a good training? In answer to these questions, we may well compare the Teutonic and Nicarate races when each is removed from the climate in which it originally developed. Before proceeding to this, a word should be added to to restore any possible misunderstanding of my attitude towards the southern parts of the United States and toward the progressive regions which nevertheless suffer somewhat from climatic handicaps.

Starting point is 01:17:43 In searching for the truth, I shall be forced to say some things which may not be wholly pleasing to residents of such regions. It must be clearly understood, however, that these are not stated on my own authority. All are based either on the consensus of opinion among a large number of persons, including many southerners, or upon the exact figures of the United States' census are other equally reliable sources. My part has been simply to interpret them, believing that the South contains a great number of people who in all essential respects have an adherence equal

Starting point is 01:18:15 to that of the best northern stocks. I have tried to find out why the southern part of the United States has prospered less than the northern. This does not mean that I reject the old ideas as to the cause, but simply that I emphasize another which has not received sufficient consideration. It does not discredit the South, nor its people. It does not alter the fact that Southerners possess a courtesy and thawfulness which we of the worried and hurried north need greatly to imitate.

Starting point is 01:18:45 Nor does it mean that men of genius are not as likely to be born in one section as another. Instead of this, it merely indicates that in addition to the many efforts now be made to foster progress in the South by other means, we should add a most vigorous attempt to discover ways of overcoming the handicap of climate. This book is written with the profound hope that the truth which it endeavours to discover may especially help those parts of the world, whose climate, although favourable, does not afford the high degree of stimulation which in certain other restricted areas is so helpful. Let us first undertake a study of what the census shows as to Negroes and whites in different parts the United States. The only people whom we can compare with accuracy are the farmers,

Starting point is 01:19:31 for they are the only ones for whom exact statistics are available. Fortunately, they are part of the community where social prejudices and other hampering conditions have the smallest influence. The prosperity of the farmer, more than that of almost any other class of society, depends upon his own individual effort. If he is industrious, he need never fear that he and his family will have a roof over their heads and something to eat. Even when the crops are bad, he barely isn't danger of suffering as factory operatives often suffer,

Starting point is 01:20:04 at least not in the eastern United States, with which alone we are now concerned. Moreover, the prejudice against colored people has little effect upon farmers. No one hesitates to buy vegetables peddled by a darky farmer.

Starting point is 01:20:19 Finally, farming in the occupation in which the south has been least hampered as compared with the north, for a Over half a century, the Negro has been able to buy land freely in any part of the country. The Southerners, whether white or black, have suffered economically because of slavery and the consequent war. But they have a good soil and a climate far better for agriculture than that of the north. And they have peculiarly good opportunities to raise tobacco and cotton. To the greatest money-making crops in the world.

Starting point is 01:20:50 Taken all in all, the farmers of the country ought to show the relative capacities of different races, and of the same race under different conditions better than almost any other class of people. In 1904, the United States Census Bureau published a bulletin on the Negro. From that I prepared Table 1, showing the relative conditions in four groups of stats in 1900. Table 1 is displayed on the following page. Comparison of white and negro farmers in the northern and southern parts of the United States. The first row of numbers, line 1, shows a total number of 1, shows a total number of white, and negro farmers, white and colored farmers. The second row shows that the farms of the northern white men

Starting point is 01:21:33 average about 100 acres in size, while those of the southern white men are larger. The colored farms, on the other hand, have an average size of about 50 acres. In the next row of figures, line 3, we notice that the northerners forge ahead. Even in the relatively hilly states of New York and Pennsylvania, the white farmers have improved 63.5 acres per farm, or 69% of the whole, leaving only 31% in the rough state of Bush's awards. The northern Negroes do exactly as well in proportion to their holdings, for they have cleared 33.0 acres, which is also 69% of the average farm. In the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida, on the contrary,

Starting point is 01:22:19 the white men have improved only 34% of their land, and their colored men 58%. For the state's farther west, comparison B, approximately similar conditions prevail. The Negroes are obliged to clear a larger percentage than the whites because their small holdings would not otherwise finish living. The significance of the figures lies in the fact that the northerners, whether white or black, show more energy in improving their land than do the southerners of the same kind. Since this table was in print, the corresponding data for 1910 and 1920 have appeared. Unfortunately, they are less full than for 1900 and do not include the value of products.

Starting point is 01:23:02 Line 9 for line 4 in the percentage for each of the three census years are as follows. Table 2 is displayed on the page. In comparison A, the gain of the other groups in relation to the northern white farmers is noticeable. This, however, does not mean merely that agriculture is improving in the South, but that it is declining in the Middle Atlantic states. In B, the percentages are almost unchanged. In both comparisons of Table 1, Item 4 and 9 are the most significant. They show the value of the farms and the value of the annual products. In each item of Table 1, the values are stated in dollars as given the census report.

Starting point is 01:23:45 While underneath, I have added percentages. In computing the percentages, the highest value is reckoned as 100%, and the rest figured accordingly. In each item of both comparisons, for all three census years, as given in Table 2, the Northern White stand at the top. In general, taking both comparisons into account, the Northern White Man's farm is worth twice as much as that of his coloured neighbour, and he gets twice as much from it. The Southern White Man has a farm worth less than that of the Northern Negro. but he gets from at approximately the same amount of products. The Southern Negro's farm is worth less, than half as much as a southern white man's,

Starting point is 01:24:27 and he gets from at about two-thirds as much. Taking all the farms from our four groups' estates and making them according to the value of what they actually produced in 1900 and of their value in 1920, the census ranks them as shown in Table 3. Table 3 is displayed on the page. the relative efficiency of white and negro farmers in the north and south. This little table possesses profound significance.

Starting point is 01:24:56 It shows unmistakably two types of contrast. First there is the racial contrasts the result of long inheritance. That apparently is what makes the Negroes fall below the whites in both the north and the south. There is also a climatic contrast that apparently is why the Negroes who come to the north rise above the usual level of that race, while the whites at the South fall below the level of theirs. I realize that the contrast between the two sections is explained in a hundred ways by as many different people. One ascribes it to the fact that slavery was a poor system economically, another says that the South is cursed for having consented to the sin of slavery. Again, we are

Starting point is 01:25:38 told that the predicament of the South is due to the war succession, the failure to develop manufacturers, the absence of roads and railroads, bad methods of farming, the presence of the negro making the white man despise labour, and many other equally important causes which cannot here be named. Still other authorities ascribe the condition of the south to its supposed settlement by adventurers, whereas the north had its pilgrims. I would not minimise the importance of these factors. All are of real significance, and if it had been different, the south would not be quite what it is. All depend upon two fundamental conditions of race or inheritance and place or climate. Yet, in the contrast between the north and south, the climatic effects seemed to be the more potent.

Starting point is 01:26:25 Slavery failed to flourish in the north, not because of any moral objection to it, for the most godly Puritans held slaves, but because the climate made it unprofitable. In a climate where the white man was tremendously energetic and where living could be procured only by hard and unrement of work, it did not pay to keep slaves. For the labour of such incompetent people scarcely sufficed to provide even themselves of living, and left little profit for their masters. In the cell, slavery was profitable because even the work of an inefficient negro more than suffice to produce enough to support him.

Starting point is 01:27:01 Moreover, the white man was not energetic, and his manual work was not of much more value than that of a negro. Hence, it was easy to for it to the habit of using his superior brain and letting the black man perform the physical labour. If the Puritans had settled in Georgia, it is probable they would have become proud slaveholders, despising manual work. So far as inheritance is concerned,

Starting point is 01:27:27 the white southerners, according to the generally accepted principles of biology, must be essentially as well off as the white men of the north. New England has probably had a certain advantage from the strong fibre of her early settlers, but that section is excluded from our comparison because it has so few colored farmers. In New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the state's farther west,

Starting point is 01:27:49 the white farmers in 1900 were of highly mixed origin, and there is little reason to think that they inherit any greater capacity than to the white men of the south. Hence we infer that the difference shown by the census is largely a matter of climate. It has arisen partially by indirect means such as slavery and disease, partially by direct means such as disinclination to, physical exertion. This demands emphasis for we are told that the South needs nothing but a fair opportunity, plenty of capital and abundant roads, railroads and factories, or else

Starting point is 01:28:23 it needs only education, a new respect for one race for the other, cooperation between the two for the sake of the common good, and a deeper application of the principles of Christ. All these things are sadly needed, but it's doubt for whether they can work their full effect are less supplemented by new knowledge of how to neutralise the climatic influences which seem to underlie so many southern problems. In the climate of the south, a part of the white population becomes a prey to malaria, the quirkworm and other debilitating elements. People cease to be careful about food and sanitation.

Starting point is 01:28:59 Even those who are in good health do not feel the eagre zest for work, which is so notable in the parts of the world, where the climatic stimulus is at a maximum. Thus one thing joins with another to cause a part of the people to fall far below the level of their race and to become poor whites or crackers. These increase in number as one passes from a more to a less favourable climate. It is their rundown, unkept farms which bring the average of the southern whites so dangerously near the level of the Negroes. The best farms in the south vary with those of the north. They show what could be done if all the inhabitants could be done if all the inhabitants could be

Starting point is 01:29:38 be instilled with the energy and wisdom of the best. Aside from North America, the only large area where Tutans and Negroes come into direct contact as permanent inhabitants is South Africa. There they meet on practically equal terms. The English and Boas began to settle on South Africa in large numbers only in the first half in the 19th century. In 1921, the South African Republic contained about 1,500,000 Europeans, 4,700,700,000 Bantu natives, and 700,000 other natives and Asiatics. A last proportion of the white men were not born there, and hence the new conditions have not had time to produce their full effect. The majority of the natives are Zulus, but the most capable appear to be the Basseudors, an allied race,

Starting point is 01:30:27 who have preserved a large measure of their independence in the Trenberg Mountains. Both the Zulus and their Pursuitos came from the north a few generations ago. Some precede the white man and some have come since his arrival. The colored people are most numerous in the north and east of the republic. That is, in Rhodesia and in Natal. The white men are most abundant in the south and in the central plateau, that is in Cape Colony, Orange River Colony and Transvaal. We have ever increasing force, however, the blacks are pushing into the white,

Starting point is 01:31:01 white man's country. They're brought as labourers for the mines. They are wanted for the farms. They are in demand as servants, and they are themselves taking up farms and successfully cultivating them. They are doing more than this, however, for they are actually ousting the Europeans. In 1902, the English and Boers finished a bit of war. Ten years later, their enmity had almost vanished in the common fear of the Negro. Aside from the disturbances due to the European War of 1914, the great political question has long been the black man. One party advocates segregation, while a white man's South Africa in the highlands from Transfile southward and a black man's South Africa in a talon or Dijia. No black man, they say, should be allowed to live permanently

Starting point is 01:31:48 outside his own country, though we might go elsewhere to work temporarily. The other party holds that such measures are too radical, but it also recognises the gravity of the situation. The problem presents itself under an economic guise. The coloured men have a lower standard of living than the whites, hence they work more cheaply. They furnish so abundant a supply of labour that white labourers have no chance. Thus a large number of the Europeans, even a tenth according to ardent believers in the future of South Africa, are poor whites. They are a shiftless set, living from hand to mouth, proud of their race, yet less efficient than the blacks. The problem of preventing them from becoming an immediate charge upon the community is serious.

Starting point is 01:32:37 They lack the push and energy which characterise the rest of the white population. According to Stevens in his book, White and Black, 5% of the white population in certain regions have fallen so low that they would rather resort to crime than work in competition with a black man. These figures have been questioned, but they are abundantly confirmed by Dr. Andrew Balfour, Director and Chief of the Welcome Bureau of Scientific Research in London. In some lectures on sojourners in the tropics and problems of acclimatization,

Starting point is 01:33:09 published in The Lancet in 1923, he states that he referred the matter to Colonel P.G. Stock of the Ministry of Health, who noticed South Africa intimately, and he confirmed Huntington's statement, pointing out, however, that in parts of the transval chronic malaria may be to blame. The most sinister fact is that these poor whites appear to have been largely born in the country. The newcomers are, on the whole, more energetic. They find employment, and if they have difficulty in one place, move on to another.

Starting point is 01:33:42 The poor whites lack the initiative to do this. If they fall into difficulties, they tend to lie down and give up. They need higher wages than the blacks in order to maintain their traditional standard of living. They are not efficient enough to get higher wages. If they had the restless energy which characterised the children and grandchildren of immigrants from Europe in Canada, for example, they would scarcely fall into slave streets. Since the problem is economic, the South Africans are striving to apply economic remedies. This is wise, but success is doubtful unless other factors are also considered.

Starting point is 01:34:19 Back of the economic facts, and in many ways conditioning them, lies the climate. South Africa is supposed to have a climate admirably adapted to Europeans. I shared the common opinion until I began to gather statistics on the effect of climate upon efficiency. These, as will be shown later, indicate that although the South African climate is pleasant, it lacks the stimulating qualities which are so important in Europe and North America. This lack of stimulus increases rapidly as one goes from south to north. Here, then, is the situation that could be a situation that could. fronts us. In South Africa, the white men settled first in the region's most favorable

Starting point is 01:35:00 from a climatic point of view, and then pushed northward into worse conditions. Even the best parts of South Africa cannot approach England and Holland in the excellence of their climate. Hence, the white settlers are everywhere at a disadvantage. On the other hand, the Banu Negroes have come into South Africa from the north, where the climate is far less fainable than in their new homes. Thus, the two raises. face each other under conditions which lessen the white man's energy while they stimulate the black man. The whites are still far ahead and will Dallas continue to be so indefinitely. Nevertheless, the weaker ones are being weeded out and prepared for destruction. What the final result will

Starting point is 01:35:42 be no man can say. It depends upon whether we can discover a means preventing the deterioration which now seems to attack a portion of the population when people move from a good climate to a worse. A more striking case than that of South Africa is found in the Bahama Islands. At the time of the American Revolution, a considerable number of loyalists were so faithful to England that they sacrificed our all in order to escape from the new flag with its stars and stripes. Leaving their homes in Georgia and other southern states, they sought the British territory of the Bahamas. Other colonists came from Great Britain. Now, after from three to five generations, the new environment has had more opportunity than in South Africa to produce its full effect. Almost nowhere else in all the world have people of the English race lived as genuine colonists for several generations in so tropical a climate.

Starting point is 01:36:41 What has been the result? There can be but one answer. It has been disastrous. Compare the Bahamas with Canada. The same sort of people went to both places. Today the descendants of the loyalists in Canada are one of the strongest elements in causing the territory to be conspicuously well-governed and law-abiding, and the descendants of other colonists, both British and French, via with them in this matter. In the Bahamas, the descendants of the same type of people show today a larger proportion of poor whites that can probably be found in any other Anglo-Saxon community. Although no figures are available, my own observations lead to the conclusion that the average white farmer is scarcely ahead of the average negro.

Starting point is 01:37:28 Whatever the exact figures may be, there can be no question that in the Bahamas the two races tend to approach the same level. This seems to indicate a marked retrogression of the white race in regions which are climatically unsuitable. Let me hasten to say that many of the more intelligent Bahamas do not differ from the corresponding portions of the Anglo-Saxon race, elsewhere. At home they feel themselves handicapped, but when the young people go away to the northern United States or England, they frequently show marked ability. Their inheritance is still good, as to the poor whites, who were described in connection with the lumber industry. It is not so certain that their inheritance remains unimpaired, for in some villages genuine abnormalities both of body and mind are seen. This, however, may be the

Starting point is 01:38:19 due to the intermarriage of cousins which has been common in certain communities. The inefficiency of many of the white Bahamas, however, is not due to intermarriage, as is sometimes implied. For villages where this prevails are scarcely worse than those where it is no more common than in America. Nor is the inefficiency due to disease. The hookworm is practically unknown. According to a report of Dr. McCutty, Chief Medical Officer of the Islands, only two cases have been reported up to October 1913. In this report for which I am indebted to the courtesy of Dr. J. A. Farrell of the Rockfeather International Health Commission, the other points out that the remarkably rapid manner in which the soil dries after even the heaviest rain prevents the development

Starting point is 01:39:07 of the infective larvae. For similar reasons, malaria is no more prevalent than in Delaware. For instance, and in general the islands are decidedly healthful. A monotonous diet may be another detrimental factor, but it is scarcely the root to the matter. Many of the people are well-fed, and all could be so if they displayed any energy. Indeed, many people say that life is altogether too easy in the Bahamas. The soil is wonderfully fertile, crops of some kind will ripen at all seasons, and a man can work less than half his time and still readily procure an abundance to eat and wear for himself and his family. On the other hand, we are often told that the difficulties of life have broken the spirit of the inhabitants.

Starting point is 01:39:54 The soil in spite of its richness is thin, and rocks are so abundant that the plough is almost unknown. Hand agriculture in little patches in the midst of naked limestone is the rule. It cannot be denied that there are difficulties in comparison with many other tropical countries. For instance, I was talking with the negro whose parents were in a side. slave ship bound from Africa to Cuba, when a British warship captured it. The slaves were taken to the Bahamas and liberated. In answer to a question as to how his parents liked the island compared with Africa, the sun said, they didn't like it. They used to say, in Africa, one could lie around all day and do nothing

Starting point is 01:40:34 and always find something to eat. Here one has to work or else starve. The truth seems to be that compared with North Prussia or Maine, the Bahamas are a very easy place in which to make a living. But that much, more work is needed than in some other tropical regions. They are at the happy mean. Other difficulties, such as the tropical hurricanes, would sweep over the country once in every few years. Insect pests, which are neither more or less harmful than in other countries,

Starting point is 01:41:04 the American tariff, competition with Cuba, and above all, the isolated position of the islands, are frequently cited as causes of the constant Bahamian failures. The islands are always suffering from bad luck, and something must be to blame. All these various factors doubtless play a part in retarding the development of the Bahamas. Back of them, however, lies a factor of even greater import, namely an inertia due to climate. It does not cause the difficulties mention above, but it aggravates them and makes it almost impossible to overcome them. I talked about this with perhaps 50 of the more intelligent people, including both natives and foreigners who have been there a number of years.

Starting point is 01:41:47 Almost with that exception, they said the same thing. This climate is one of the best in the world. You can see that for yourself. It is very helpful and with very few sicknesses. The only trouble is that it does not make one feel like work. In winter it is all right, although even then we cannot fly around the way you Americans do. We always feel lazy And in summer we want to sit around all the time

Starting point is 01:42:11 As an American picturesquely put it Until I came to the Bahamas I never appreciated posts Now I want to lean against everyone that I see Many of the men and almost all the women Complained of feeling tired Even the children are listless One young man stated the case very strongly

Starting point is 01:42:31 We go to bed tired in summer And we get up more tired and the summer lasts from April to October Again and again people said Oh it's all very well for you to think we're lazy But try living here six months or a year And you'll be as lazy as we are It's something in the air

Starting point is 01:42:49 Just look at these young ministers Who come out of England At first they're full of energy But after a year or two it oozes out Though their spirit is still as zealous as ever Two of the ministers spoke of the fact that when they came out they thought nothing of walking 20 miles, but now they dread the thought of two.

Starting point is 01:43:10 Several of the most thoughtful, intelligent islanders, men who have succeeded in business and his judgment, would be respected anywhere, said, We know that we are physically unable to do what English and Americans can do. We are weaker than our fathers, and they were weaker than theirs. It is a grief to send our children away, but in our hearts we know that this is not a white man's country. All this, it must be remembered, is not due to any specific disease, so far as we are aware.

Starting point is 01:43:39 Indeed, I met several people who said that Estaya a few years in the Bahamas had improved their health, but at the same time had made them feel inefficient. Aside from extremely ignorant persons whose opinion is of little value, the only men who spoke to the climate or hopefully were five over six highly trained officials and others occupying positions of authority. These men, with that exception, can control their own time. In most cases, their office hours are from 9 or 10 a.m. to 2pm or less. They are men of naturally strong physique.

Starting point is 01:44:12 They have the opportunity and the will to take regular exercise, and most important of all, that make long and frequent visits to the United States or England. The benefit to be derived from a visit to a more bracing climate is astonishing. The contrasts between the dull cello complexions and thin chicks, the women and girls who have always lived on the islands, and the round rosy cheeks of those who have recently come back from long stay at the north is most striking. According to a local saying, you cannot tell whether a Bahaman woman is pretty until she goes away, and has a chance to fill out her cheeks and get some colour.

Starting point is 01:44:50 It is by no means strange that the stronger and more energetic young white people are fast leaving the islands. I asked a Bahamah girl who had been studying nursing in New York whether she enjoyed life more in the United States than in the Bahamas. How can one help enjoying it more there, she answered. There one feels like doing things. Here one never feels like anything. Like almost everyone else, she was sure that it was the climate even more than the social environment, which made the difference. One thing that surprised me was to hear the Bahamas speak of the stimulus of living in Florida. A native merchant remarked,

Starting point is 01:45:31 If I hire a new man, I don't have to ask whether he has been to Florida. I know it by the way he works, but it does not last long. Here again, the social environment is an important factor, but various people told me that the air somehow makes them feel more capable of work in Florida than at home. The women of Florida, I hear them say it themselves,

Starting point is 01:45:52 are pale and wan compared with their northern sisters. One of them, whose colour still shows her Northern Origin, remarked, When I come home after a summer in the north, I'm full of energy and see all sorts of things that I want to change about the house. But after a month or two, I don't care whether these things are fixed or not. One hears the same sort of thing everywhere. A factory superintendent from Atlanta, Georgia, told me that the Florida workmen,

Starting point is 01:46:19 even the most skillful mechanics, drive him frantic because they are so shiftless, and are so ready to take a day off whenever they feel like it. Far more so than at Atlanta, even though Atlanta seems slow to northerners. Yet in spite of all these things, Florida is a more stimulating place than the Bahamas. Its summers are not much better, but its winters are sometimes frosty, while in the Bahamas the thermometer practically never goes below 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Perhaps of greater importance, as we shall see later, is the fact that in Florida the temperature

Starting point is 01:46:54 The temperature from day to day varies much more rapidly than the Bahamas, even though both places are in the same latitude. Hence the mainland is blessed with a genuine cinematic stimulus compared with the uniform islands. The last thing to be said about the Bahamas concerns the effect of the climate or mental activity. Practically all the islanders with whom I talked thought that the effect of the climate or mental activity is at least as great as on physical. several the more thoughtful were any suggestion on my part put the matter in this way the worst thing about this climate is the effect on the mind not that people do not have as good minds as elsewhere but one soon gets weary of hard mental effort it is extremely difficult to concentrate one's thoughts at night one cannot seem to make himself read anything serious nothing but the lightest kind of stories in our own southern states one hears the same complaint even in the same In Virginia, the booksellers say that during the long summer, almost no one touches a serious book. One fills it everywhere, for on the trains, at the railroad stations, and at the news dealers,

Starting point is 01:48:05 it is generally difficult to find the higher grade of magazines. Time and again during a recent journey of three months in the southern states, I try to get such papers as The Outlook, Independent Harpers, Atlantic, Review of Reviews, the Century, and so forth. But all that I could find was trashy story magazines. The dealers really kept the better magazines because people will not read them. Lack of training surely has something to do with the matter, but mental inertia due to lack of climatic stimulus seems to be at least equally important. Let us return now to our question as to a Teutonic and a Negro Egypt.

Starting point is 01:48:45 The farmers are the northern and southern states, the raised problems of South Africa, and the backwardness of the Bahamas, all seem to point to the same conclusion. When the white man migrates to climates less stimulating than those of his original home, he appears to lose in both physical and mental energy. This leads to carelessness in matters of sanitation and food, and thus gives greater scope to the diseases which, under any circumstances, would find an easy prey in the weakened bodies. The combination of mental inertia and physical weakness makes it difficult to overcome the difficulties of

Starting point is 01:49:21 from isolation, from natural disasters or from the presence of an inferior race. And this in turn leads to ignorance, prejudice and utterness. Thus there arises a vicious circle which keeps on incessantly. From its revolving edge, a part of the community is thrown off as Port Whites, whose number increases in proportion to the enervating effect on the climate and the consequent speed with which the circle revolves. That climate is the original force which sets the wheel and motion seems to to be evident, because it is only in adverse climates that we find the cracker type of poor white

Starting point is 01:49:56 trash, developing in appreciable numbers. If white men lived a thousand years in Egypt, it seems probable that a large proportion of them would degenerate to this type. Whether they would still retain an inheritance of health and mentality sufficient to keep them ahead of a similar body of Negroes can scarcely be determined. The chief reason for doubt in this respect is that we do not yet know just how natural selection would work in such a case. It would almost certainly act in two ways. First, many of the abler young people of the white race would presumably migrate, as they do in the Bahamas. This tendency is generally strongest in the upper classes who can afford to send their

Starting point is 01:50:38 children away to school. It is also strong among the young people of all classes who possess more than the average initiative, ambition and physical strength. It becomes weaker and weaker as one goes down the scale, and almost Cetors among the poor whites who have so little mental capacity and so much physical inertia that in spite of much grumbling they remain where they are and compete with the colored people. The other kind of natural selection consists of a selective death rate. Children who inherit certain physical and mental traits are more likely to die than a children who do not possess those traits. What the traits are which cause extermination we do not know. A fair skin, a nervous temperament, an excess of activity, an unwillingness or incapacity to get sufficient rest,

Starting point is 01:51:28 for maybe qualities, which dooms certain white stocks to gradual extinction outside their own climate. In places like South Africa and Bahamas, the temperament which is willing to intermarry, with the coloured people, helps certain types of white people to perpetuate their inheritance, but at the same time it gradually eliminates the qualities of energy, initiative, and invetiness, which seem to be so much more characteristic of Nordics than of Negroes. It must not be forgotten that theoretically it may be possible that some day a carefully controlled series of crosses between whites and blacks may eliminate the weak traits of each and combine the good traits.

Starting point is 01:52:08 Thus a race may arise which resembles negroes in its good tempo and its capacity with standard tribal climate, but which will have the progressive, executive and invented capacities of the white race. Such crosses have been made among animals. For example, Mr MFC Honor or the Transvaal has sent me the following quotation in which he believes to be prophetic of what will someday happen in South Africa. Here's from Winston Churchill, the British Cabinet Minister. At Navashar, practically on the equator of British East Africa, there is a government stock farm. One may see in their various flocks the native sheep, the half-bred English, the three-quarter bread, etc.

Starting point is 01:52:52 The improvement is amazing. The native sheep is a hairy animal, looking to the unpractors eye more like a goat than a sheep. Cross with Sussex or Australian blood, his senate is transformed into a will and beast of familiar aspect. At the next cross, the progeny is almost indistinguishable from the purebred English in appearance, but better adapted to the African sun and climate. It is the same with the cattle. In the first generation, the hump of the African ox vanishes. In the second, he emmerges a respectful English short-horn.

Starting point is 01:53:23 Such carefully controlled cross-spreading may perhaps be possible among mankind after hundreds or thousands of years, but first we must know what human qualities are unit characters, so that they are inherited according to them Mendelian Law, and not due to the combination of a series of such characters. Then we must learn what qualities are dominant over others as to the presence of one hides the other. Another highly complex problem is to determine what qualities are linked with others so that one cannot be inherited without the other. The fact that linked qualities are very common

Starting point is 01:53:58 may mean that certain good qualities like the tolerance of the Negro for a hot climate can never be inherited without certain undesirable qualities like the lack of care for the future which is one of the chief causes of Negro shiftlessness. Even if such linkage is not an insurperable barrier to the production of a really new race by intelligent prosperity, there still remains the almost insurmounted,

Starting point is 01:54:22 obstacle of deep-seated human customs, racial antipathies and modern ideas of individual liberty. Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to reflect on the following dream of Lafcatea O'Hern. It is neither unscientific nor unraged walk to suppose the world eventually peopled by a race different from any now existing, yet created by the blending of the best types of all races. Uniting Western energy with far eastern impatience, northern vigor with southern sensibility, the highest at the feelings divert by all great religions with the largest mental faculties evolved by all civilizations. Speaking a single tongue composed from the richest and strongest elements of all pre-existing human speech

Starting point is 01:55:04 and forming a society unimaginally superior, yet unimaginally unlike to anything, which now is, or will ever be. This is an inspiring dream, even though most biologists now regard it as impossible. So far as climate is concerned, the hard reality seems to be that, at present, both by its direct action and through natural selection, a warm, monotonous and unstimulating climate tends to reduce human activity both physical and metal, regardless of race. End of Section 3 of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington. This is the Libravox According, or Librevox recordings of the public domain. For more information or volunteer, please visit LeBrogue. Recorded by Leon Harvey

Starting point is 01:55:59 Chapter 3 The White Man in the Tropics Thus far, we have dealt with the temperate zone, even the Bahamas lie north of the Tropic of Cancer. Let us now turn to the Torren Zone, which contains the world's richest and most fighting fields of future development. Let us inquire into the effect of that region upon Europeans who attempt to live there permanently.

Starting point is 01:56:25 The isolation of the tropical regions, the lack of facilities for transportation, and the great difficulties of agriculture will doubtless be overcome, but that will by no means solve the problem. Two great obstacles will still remain, the native inhabitants and the white man's own mind and body. Whatever may be the cause, it is generally agreed that the native races within the tropics are dull and thought and slow in action. This is true not only of the African Negroes, the South American Indians, and the people of the East Indies, but of the inhabitants of southern India and the Malay Peninsula. Perhaps they will change, but the fact that the Indians both of Asia and South America

Starting point is 01:57:06 have been influenced so little by from one to four hundred years of contact with the white man affords little ground for hope. Judging from the past, there is scant reason to think that their character is likely to change for many generations. Until that time comes, they will be one of the white man's greatest obstacles. Experience shows that the presence of an infudio race in large numbers tends constantly to lower the status of the dominant race. Here in America, although the Negro forms only a tenth part of the population, he is one of our gravest problems. Yet he is not so great a handicap as are the native races of the tropics.

Starting point is 01:57:46 Whatever the Negro may have been when he was first brought to America, he is now less stolid and indifferent, was subject to stimulating influences than he was when he came, or if then the Indians of tropical America. It is literally true in South America, for instance, that the more an Indian is paid, the less he will work. If one day's pay will buy two days food, he will work half the time. If the pay is increased so that one day's pay will buy food for three days, he will work one-third of the time. The experiment has been tried again and again. The most considered employers of tropical labor agree with the most inconsiderate that in general it is useless to attempt to spur the Indians bunny motive beyond the actual demands of food and shelter. Kindness and consideration on the part of the

Starting point is 01:58:34 employer undoubtedly promote faithfulness, but they seem rarely to arouse ambition or energy. With the Negro in Africa, as everyone knows, much of the same condition prevails, but where he is being brought to the United States, this is by no means so true. For example in Central America, He is generally thought that a Negro from Jamaica is more efficient than an Indian, while a Negro from the United States is much more efficient. The Negro in the United States is generally considered more efficient than he was in Africa, whereas his stay-at-home brother and the Indians of Tropical America remaining in their old environment do not seem to have changed.

Starting point is 01:59:15 Doubtless the change in the Negro is due to a social environment quite as much as to a new fiscal environment, and many authorities believe that the social change is the more important. This, however, does not materially alter the cause. As conditions are now, it is extremely difficult to change the physical environment of tropical races so as they remain in their present habitat, and it seems to be equally difficult to change their social environment. Those who dwell permanently in the white man's cities are influenced somewhat, but the results are often disastrous.

Starting point is 01:59:48 Here is almost everywhere within 20 degrees of the airs, equator, the general tendency seems to be to revert to the original condition as soon as immediate contact with the white man is removed. This does not mean that contact with a higher civilization will never benefit the people of the tropics, but merely that the process is bound to be slow. The Aborigines of Tropical America, for example, show little sign either of disappearing or being swallowed up by a multitude of immigrants, as has been the cause in temperate latitudes, nor do they appear to be changing their character. On the contrary, in Latin America,

Starting point is 02:00:27 the only tropical region except Australia where the white man is settled in large numbers. The proportion of Indian blood is apparently increasing at the expense of the white, and the Indians act and think almost like their ancestors three or four centuries ago. This is largely because the white man, except in a few favorite places,

Starting point is 02:00:46 suffers from tropical diseases more than does the native. and his children tend to move away his strong, or to be weaklings who die young and leave few children. It is notorious that India contains almost no fourth generation of Indian-born British. The British children are either sent back to Europe to recover their health, or else become enfeebled, and their descendants die out. Even with the help of modern medical science, he is not yet certain that the permanent white population can increase greatly, although sojourners are sure to become numerous.

Starting point is 02:01:18 In Australia, to be sure, the white man seems to be succeeding within the tropics, but he is still new there and has the inestable advantage of actual natural selection and freedom from contact with the natives. In many well-populated tropical countries, modern science lowers a death rate among the natives, and thus increases their numbers. The white men has permitted the native population of India to double and that of Java to increase seven-fold, partially by conquering diseases and partially by the prevention of famine and war. If the conclusion just reached is correct, it seems probable that tropical countries will long continue to maintain a dull, unproclusive population. Contact with such a population constantly exposes the white man to a most deteriorating influence. For example, the inferior mental ability of the lower race and its incapacity for effective organization

Starting point is 02:02:13 lead to the abuse of its labor and to its exploitation in some form of peerage, even though the fact may be disguised by legal phraseology. Again, the presence of a despise race is almost certain to lead to low sexual morality. In the same way, political equality becomes a mere form of speech, for the dominant race will not permit the other to gain rights at its expense. Manuel Labour too is despised what is associated with the idea of an inferior race. All these things may be looked upon as disadvantages of the lower race, but I believe for the higher reaps, by far the greater injury. The conditions just mentioned appear to be among the

Starting point is 02:02:56 most potent factors in rendering it difficult for the white man to attain as much success in tropical regions as in those farther to the north or south. Their evil effect is roughly proportional to the difference between the two races. Their difference is at a maximum where a low tropical race remains in its original unstimulating environment and is brought into contact with the immigrants of a highly developed race who completely change their environment. The newcomers are released from older strengths at a time when they stand in peculiar need of them, instead of being stimulated to greater love of political freedom and equality, sternal morality and more intense industry as was the case among the Sothers in New England,

Starting point is 02:03:38 the immigrants are in danger of being awakened in all of these respects. The effect on the original immigrants is bad enough, but on their children it is far worse. The settler or European colonist, who is possessed of wealth and power, can to a slight degree shield his family, but even in such cases the children are in constant contact with servants, they grew up with a supreme contempt for the natives, and the same time with a feeling that they can treat them as they choose. If poorer people, that is, colonists in the ornese sense the word, attempt to live in the tropics, especially if they are people who work with their hands.

Starting point is 02:04:17 Their children are exposed to more to all the contaminating influences of contact with the natives. Hence the second and third generations, and the fourth and fifth, if there are any, suffer more than their ancestors. The degree to which the indirect or external handicaps of tropical countries are effective in lowering the standards of civilization depends largely upon the amount of energy and willpower possessed by the inhabitants. This in turn depends upon physiological conditions. Obviously diseases have much to do with the matter.

Starting point is 02:04:50 This subject has been so much discussed that I shall here refer to it only briefly. There can be little doubt that malaria and many other diseases which are characteristic of tropical countries play an important part in causing a low state of civilization. The old idea that the people who live in tropical regions are immune to local diseases is no longer accepted by students or tropical medicine. Adults, to be sure, are often immune, but apparently this is only partially true of children. Fast numbers of children die in infancy and early childhood from the diseases which prevent the white man from permanently living within the tropics.

Starting point is 02:05:28 Others suffer but recover. They bear the results with them to the grave, however, in the form of a large source. spleen or other injuries to the internal organs of the body. The world has of late been astonished at the ravages of Pellegra and of other diseases due to such organisms as the hookworm. People who are subject to them cannot be highly competent. Their mental processes as well as their physical activity are dulled. So long as the community is constantly affected with such disorders, it can scarcely rise high in a scale of civilization. Nothing is more hopeful for the tropics than the rapid progress in the control of these diseases.

Starting point is 02:06:09 If they could be eliminated, not only might the white man be able to live permanently, where now he can be only a sojourner, but the native races would probably be greatly benefited. How great this benefit would be we cannot yet tell, but the elimination of the diseases which especially affect children would probably do much to increase vitality, energy and initiative. This in itself would be an immeasurable boon, not only to the natives, but to the white man, who would thereby be freed in part from some of his worst social dangers. This highly desirable result cannot be obtained quickly. The achievements of the United States in Panama are sometimes said to prove that diseases can be eliminated anywhere in tropical countries. This is true, but it must be remembered that Panama is a highly specialized case.

Starting point is 02:06:59 During the building of the canal, a great number of people were collected in a small area, and enormous sums of money were freely expended. Everyone was subject to strict semi-military rule, and similar conditions still continue. Such methods cannot be applied to millions of square miles. The expense would be prohibitive. The ordinary farmer in tropical regions cannot expect to be protected by his government. He must protect himself. In the long run, even tropical races may learn this lesson.

Starting point is 02:07:29 but it will be a difficult and expensive task and will require radical change in the people themselves. Such a change would doubtless come, but not for generations, and not until a long selective process has gone on, whereby those who do not adopt modern medical methods will gradually be eliminated, or those who adopt them will persist. There has been so much misunderstanding of Panama and so many wild statements that it may be well to set forth the exact facts. The Health Department of the Panama Canal, as it is now called, and as charge of three districts whose population in 1917 was as follows. The city of Panama, 61,074.

Starting point is 02:08:13 The city of Cologne, 25,386, and the canal zone, 27,543. For purposes of health and sanitation, all are under the control of the United States, and no expenses spare to make them as helpful as possible. In order to avoid the complications due to the influence the epidemic of 1918, let us take the period from 1912 to 1917. For 1912, the health measures of the United States Army averaged such perfection that the death rate had been reduced 50%. The improvement still continues, but it's now so and apparently does little more than keep pace with a similar improvement in the advanced parts of the world. The two cities of Panama and Korn contain the ordinary mixed population. of tropical seaports, Negroes and the West Indies,

Starting point is 02:09:04 Mesizos, half Spanish, half Indian, from the neighboring parts of the Central and South America, a few Chinese and other Asiatics, some Europeans and Americans. A considerable number of the employees of the Canal live there. The Canal Zone, on the other hand, contains a large proportion of Canal employees, chiefly Americans, West Indian Negroes and Europeans. Among all of these, the besieves of men between 20 and 50 years of ages large. The following figures show the crew death rates from 1912 to 1917 among the civilian population

Starting point is 02:09:40 excluding soldiers in their three districts of Panama and in certain other areas with which comparisons may profitably be made. A table is displayed on the page. Panama 80.5 colon 24.8. Canal zone 18.6. Chile 27.9. Spain 22. United States 18.9. Bombay, 1910 to 1912, 87.0. Calcutta 19 to 1912, 26.1. Amsterdam, 1901 to 1913. 12.6.

Starting point is 02:10:17 A multitude of other figures might be presented, all of which would show that while the work done in Panama has been admirable, the general conditions of health in the cities of Panama and Cologne are still twice as bad as in the advanced parts of the world. They are about on par with those of similar cities of India for Bombay and Calcutta. By reason of their size and desperate overcrowding, presumably have higher death rates than to Indian cities as small as Panama and Colon. The death rates for infants under one year bears out this general conclusion, as appears from the following figures showing the death per thousand births in 1915, 1916 and 1917. Panama, Colin and the Canal Zone, 233, Colored people in New York, 182 Colored people in United States Registration Area 172 White people at United States registration area 96

Starting point is 02:11:14 White people in Minnesota, 69 The area where births are registered in the United States includes only a small part of the South so that the death rate among colored infants as a whole is higher than appears above In Richmond, Virginia during 1917, 1918 and 1990 it averaged 198, in cities farther south it tapest reached a level as high as other people of all sorts at Panama. The foregoing data make it obvious that the widespread idea as to the healthfulness of Panama is based solely on the small number of people in the canal zone.

Starting point is 02:11:52 But the death rate of 13.6 given above the canal zone, as by no means the significance that is usually supposed. Its use for comparative purpose is vitiated by two facts. First, the number of deaths by violence, chiefly by accident, is unusually high in the Canal Zone. And second, the inhabitants of the Canal Zone are a highly selected group, mostly of good physique and in the prime of life, and hence bound to have a relatively low death rate, no matter where they live. The best way to make a fair comparison is to take people the same age, sex and occupation, who have otherwise also been selected by the same method, and compared the death rates in different places.

Starting point is 02:12:33 But this is impossible. As the next best thing, let us take the death rate from 1912 to 1917 among the Canal's white employees from the United States and compare it with the rate for men of similar age elsewhere. We assume that the proportion of white men of different ages in the Canal Zone is the same as among the white employees from the United States and was also the same at the census of 1920 as in the period from 1912 to 1917, both of which were the same. which are essentially the case, it is easy to compare the relative death rate in other regions on the same basis as that for Panama. Using the data prepared by the International Institute of Statistics, together with the records of E.O. University, we find that if the proportion of men of various ages were the same in the other places as among the white American employees of the Panama Canal, the death rates among such men would be as follows. A table displayed on the page

Starting point is 02:13:32 comparing locations to death rate from all causes and approximate death rate when deaths due to violence are eliminated. Does this mean that the climate of the states of New York and Connecticut is relatively bad, or that of Panama and the home of Fial University a New Haven is remarkably good? Not at all. It simply means that the two states have relatively normal death rates for their particular climates and for a comparatively unsolated population. They are handicapped by their numerous, unhelpful factories and cities and by the great number of their immigrants, many of whom are poor or ignorant, and of low caliber mentally. Moreover, many of the more energetic young people have migrated westward. The adventurous and persistent qualities which lead to migration are partly due to health and physical vigor,

Starting point is 02:14:21 and partially to mental initiative, adaptability, and readiness to try new life and new methods. It needs no demonstration to show that such people are sure to have. have a low death rate, especially when they are highly prosperous. As in the state of Washington, they have a physical figure to withstand disease, they have the good sense to take care of themselves, and they have the means wherewith to purchase good food, good shelter, good sanitation, and good medical service. Since New Zealand is harder to reach than Washington, its immigrants have been even more highly selected for thrift, health and physical and mental vigor. Panama, like Washington and New Zealand, attracts chiefly the more vigorous type of people.

Starting point is 02:15:05 The man who is organically diseased rarely thinks of going there. Moreover, in Panama, white employees come from America as adults. On the contrary, many of the people in Washington and New Zealand were born there and remained regardless of whether they possessed the pioneer vigor and initiative of their parents. Again, even if they have the brave spirit that overcomes for them. physical handicaps, the organically weak are not allowed to go to Panama as employees. If they try to go, they are weeded out by physical examinations. Even that, however, does not enter the matter, for the eliminations are repeated each year. Every individual who shows signs

Starting point is 02:15:45 a weakness is advised to leave Panama as soon as possible. Many are ordered home, and not a few are deported, especially those suffering from mental disorders. During the three years for which I have been able to find data, 1914, 1917, the deportations on account of disease among employees of all sorts, both white and colored, amounted to approximately 40% of the total death from disease. If these people had stayed in Panama, as they stayed in New York, Connecticut, Washington, or New Zealand, many of them would soon have died. It is much as such deportations have been going on for years, it is practically certain that without them, the death rate at Panama would be decidedly larger than now.

Starting point is 02:16:32 In addition to the persons who were deported, a far larger number would go home voluntarily on the advice of their physicians. Moreover, many who show no immediate signs of disease remain at home after one of their earliest furloughs because they find the climate at Panama uncomfortable. In addition to all this, it must be remembered that the white employees of Panama are practically all officials or clerks. They belong to a class of society which, by reason of its intelligence, is able to take care of itself, so that its death rate is normally much lower than that of the great body

Starting point is 02:17:07 of men of similar age. Moreover, the employees are well paid and admirably housed. They likewise have long and frequent vacations at home, whereby the effect of the tropical climate is practically neutralised. All these conditions, even without the excellent medical care which the employees receive, would ensure a degree of health in Panama much better than in most tropical regions. On the other hand, if the population of Panama were an ordinarily unsolic type, and if none of the weak were sick was sent away, it seems probable that in spite of the admirable

Starting point is 02:17:42 sanitation and medical care, the death rate will be larger than in New York among people of similar age. This last statement is merely an opinion, since, by its very nature, it is not suspectable of actual proof. We know as a fact, however, that the death rate at Panama is greatly lowered by the selection of healthy, intelligent employees, as well as by good medical care. The conditions at Yale or any other university suggest that, in such cases, selection is even more important than medical care. From June 1912 to June 17, the average number of undergraduates at Yale was 2,476, among whom the total number of deaths was 9 through disease.

Starting point is 02:18:27 and one by accident. This gives an annual death rate of 0.8 per thousand against 4.5 or the young men of Connecticut between 15 and 24 years of age. In other words, an unselected young man in Connecticut is 5.6 times as likely to die, as is a selected Yale student. If a similar ratio prevailed among the university men up to the age of about 55 years, and if the proportion of men at each age were the same as at Panama, though death barring accidents would be only 1.7 against 2.7 among the white American employees at Panama. Now as a matter of fact, from the standpoint of health, the employees at Panama are far more rigidly selected than other students.

Starting point is 02:19:14 No medical examination is required for entrance to the university. No one is actually sent away because of his health, and the amount of medical attention is less on the whole than at Panama. The other thing's been equal is all to give a higher death rate at Yale than at Panama. Yet as a matter of fact, it actually gives Panama the higher rate by 60%. This turning at the tables against Panama seems to be due to the adverse climate. The net result of the preceding investigation is this. There can be no doubt of the great value and success of the medical and sanitary work at Panama. It has cut the death rate in halves at the cities of Panama and colon.

Starting point is 02:19:58 Nevertheless, the death rate in those cities is still extremely high, about twice that of the United States as a whole. So far as the white people at Panama are concerned, the death rate is very low, for that proves nothing about the climate. It merely proves that it is possible to obtain practically any death rate by selecting the cases. One could go to hospitals and select the critical cases, that might give a death rate of 8 to 900. One might select college athletes and from time throw out any who showed signs of illness, and the death rate would be zero. But to use such death rates as evidence concerning the climate would be highly misleading. It is poor policy to use any such reasoning in respect to Panama, northern Australia or any other region where the climate possesses disadvantages. To do so encourages false hopes.

Starting point is 02:20:49 When these are disappointed, people tend to blame the whole science of tropical medicine. that science is doing wonderful things, but as yet there is no evidence that it has overcome the effects of climate, although it has certainly mitigated them. We shall return to this subject in connection with Australia. There is in Panama, the tropical death rate is lower than those of better climates, but this is due primarily to the selection of certain types of residents. I have dwelt on this manner because there is a vast deal of misapprehension and very little realisation of the importance of selection. Let us return now to a main question. Suppose the white man should succeed in cultivating the tropical forests, transversing the waste places and conquering the diseases.

Starting point is 02:21:38 Suppose also that issue would eliminate the deteriorating influences of those social and moral standards among the natives. But suppose also that there were no selection of the white colonists. If all this were suddenly done, the average unselected white men were set down in a tropical garden of Eden, would they be able to hold their own? among the peoples of the world. Would Teutans or Latins, under such circumstances, be able permanently to maintain as high a standard of civilization as is maintained by their brothers in Europe? Or would there be a change in some of the traits which we are wanted to call racial?

Starting point is 02:22:15 Clearly, we are back at the point where we started, and are confronted by the question of race versus place. We must determine how much of our European and American Energy initiative, persistence, and other qualities upon which we so much pride ourselves is due to racial inheritance and how much to residents are to highly stimulated conditions of climate. One of the lines which we may seek for an answer is by a comparison of the character of Europeans in tropical countries with their character in the temperate zone. Whatever differences we may find are presumably due partially to physiological

Starting point is 02:22:53 and partially to sociological causes, but they manifest themselves chiefly through the well. In tropical countries' weakness of will is unfortunately displayed not only by the natives, but by a large proportion of the northerners' it manifests itself in many ways. For these, namely, lack of industry, and irascible temper, drunkenness and sexual indulgence are particularly prominent and may be taken as typical. Others such as proneness to gambling and disregard for the truth might equally well be considered if space allowed. In the quality of industry, the difference between people in tropical and other countries is well known.

Starting point is 02:23:36 We have already touched on it in the Bahamas, but let us amplify it further. Practically every northerner who goes to the Torrid zone says at first that he works as well as at home, and that he finds the climate delightful. He may even be stimulated to unusual exertion. Little by little, however, even though he retains pervert health, he slows down. He does not work as hard as before, nor does the spirit of ambition prick him so keenly. On the low, damp sea coast and still more in the lowland forests, the process of deterioration is relatively rapid, those duration may vary enormously in different individuals. In the dry interior, the process is slower, and on the high plateaues it may take many years.

Starting point is 02:24:24 Both in books, and in conversation with inhabitants of tropical regions, one finds practically unanimity as to this tropical inertia and applies both to body and mind. After long sojourn in the tropics it is hard to spur one's self to the physical effect of a mountain climb and equally hard to think about the steps in a long chain of reasoning. The mind like the body wants rest. Both can be spurred to activity but this exhaust vitality. The common explanations of tropical inertia are diverse. One man says that within the tropics hard work is unnecessary because salaries are high and

Starting point is 02:25:04 other asserts that it is because servants are cheap still another claims that hard work is dangerous to the health and also all agree that anyhow one doesn't feel like working down here probably all for these factors cooperate and each doubtless produces pronounced results but last two health and feeling seem the most important in spite of individual exceptions white men who spur themselves to exert their minds as earnestly and steadily within the tropics as at home are a great danger of breaking down in health. They become nervous and enfeebled and rarely succumbed to tropical diseases. This is one of the most powerful deterrence to the development of an

Starting point is 02:25:50 efficient white population in equatorial regions. If the more intellectual members of the community ruin their health, they are almost sure to die before their time, or else to go back to the north, In either case, they are not likely to leave many children to perpetuate their characteristics. Thus, if white colonization takes place on a large scale within the tropics, there is grave danger that the physically strong, mentally lethargic elements will be the ones to become the ancestors of future population. In the past, this factor must have operated to weed out the more intellectual members of each of the many races that have migrated toward the equator. The inertia which prevents the less competent members of a tropical community from overworking may perhaps be interpreted by teleologists as a merciful provision of providence to warn man that he must not work too hard in the torrent zone, but that will scarcely help to advance civilization.

Starting point is 02:26:51 Few people will question the reality of the tropical inertia. It is the same lassitude which everyone feels on a hot summer day. The inclination of sit down and dream, the tendency to head. hesitate before beginning a piece of work, and to refrain from plunging into the midst of it in the energetic way, which seems natural under more stimulating conditions. Lack of willpower is shown by northerners and tropical regions, not early in loss of energy and ambition, but in fits of anger. The English official who returns from India is commonly described as choleric. Every traveller in tropical countries knows that he sometimes bursts into anger

Starting point is 02:27:31 in a way that makes him utterly ashamed by which he could scarcely believe possible at home. Almost any American or European who has travelled or resided within the tropics will confess that he is occasionally flown into a passion and perhaps used physical violence under circumstances which at home would merely have made him vexed. This is due apparently to four chief causes. One is the ordinary tropical diseases, for when a man has a touch of fever, his temper is is apt to get the better of him. In the second place the slowness of tropical people is terribly exasperating. The impatient author uses every possible means to make the natives hurry or to compel them to keep their word. His energy is usually

Starting point is 02:28:18 wasted. The native remains unmoved and the only visible result is an angry and ridiculous foreigner. Yet a show of anger and violence often seemed to be the only way of getting things done and is frequently used as an excuse for lack of self-control. In the third place, the consequences of becoming angry are less dangerous than elsewhere. The inert people of tropical countries often submit to indignities which an ordinary white man would literally resent. Of course, they object to ill-treatment, and retaliate, if possible, but they generally do not have sufficient energy or cunning to make their vengeance effective against the powerful white man. Finally, those who have lived in the tropics generally find

Starting point is 02:29:02 that even when things go smoothly and they are in contact with people of their own kind and are in comparatively good health they are more irritable than at home in other words their power of self-control is enfeebled of course there are many exceptions but that does not affect the general principle drunkenness our third evidence of lack of self-control needs scarcely be discussed within the tropics the white man's alcohol in the form of rum is scarcely more injurious to the natives of africa that it is scarcely more injurious to the natives of africa that it is scarcely more dangerous to the natives of africa that it is a very dangerous to the that it is in other forms to himself. In places such as Guatemala and parts of Mexico, drunken men and women may be seen upon the streets at almost any time of day. Nowhere else, during extensive travels in America, Europe and Asia, have I seen so much drunkenness as in Guatemala. Among white men, a large number drink as badly as the natives.

Starting point is 02:29:56 Here is an example. A railway conductor was telling me about drinks in Guatemala. They've got something here called White Eye. he remarked. You know that Mexican mescal and how strong it is? Well, white eyes got mescal chained to a telegraph pole. Yes, I drink it. A man's got to drink something. The first time I tried it, I got crazy drunk and smashed things up the way they all do. I was arrested and fined $50. This is really only $2.5.4. For Guatemalan currency consists of non-redeemable paper, which at that time was worth about five cents on a dollar. A characteristic

Starting point is 02:30:33 evidence of tropical incapacity. I got fined several times that way and didn't like it. Then one day when I was going to get drunk, I said to myself, I go and pay my fine now and then they won't bother me. I did that several times and that Jeff Politico liked it, presumably because it was an easy way of pocketing the money. Then he said to the police, don't bother this man, just let him get drunk all he likes,

Starting point is 02:31:00 and he'll pay his fines at the proper time. i tell you what is bad stuff the only proper way to drink it is to take a quart bottle in the morning find a place that will stay shady all day drink the whole thing right down and get so dead drunk that you will sleep till night i do not cite this man as typical of all the white men in the tropics far from it many conduct themselves with sobriety and industry but such men almost invariably make frequent and protracted visits to the better climate of the north If a white man stays steadily for long periods in the tropics, however, and if his character has any weak spots, they are almost sure to be exaggerated. The drunkenness of the tropical white man arises in part from the constant heat, which makes people want something to drink all the time, partially from the monotony of life, and still more from the absence of the social restraints which exercise so powerful and inhibitory

Starting point is 02:31:58 influence in home. Back of all these things, however, among both white men and natives, there's still more seem to lie two conditions which are directly connected with the climate. One is the same enfeelement of the will which makes a man burst into anger. The other is a constant feeling of inefficiency which makes a man crave something to brace him up. The last of the ways in which weakness of will is evident in tropical countries is the relation of the sexes. Its importance can scarcely be overestimated. It leads to the ruin of thousands of northerners, even though they do not yield to drink, to anger or to laziness.

Starting point is 02:32:34 laziness. When once they have fallen into pronounced immorality, the other weaknesses soon follow. The condition of the native race is still worse. Everywhere within the tropics, missionaries say that their converts can be taught honesty, industry and many of the virtues, but that even the strongest fighter to almost impossible to resist the temptations of sex. Many Europeans condone this, but they say that it is natural, and their natives had better be left to their own conventional ways or restricting but not preventing sexual intercourse. Perhaps they are right, however, I cannot be certain. That is not the point, however, we are at present concerned with the effect which free indulgence has upon civilization and upon the capacity for progress.

Starting point is 02:33:20 This may be illustrated by what, Goldsbury and Cheyenne, for example, say of the Zulus in northern Rhodesia. They hold that one of the greatest reasons why these people remain so good. backward, is that their thought and energy are largely swallowed up in matters of sex. During the years when the young men ought to be getting new ideas and thinking out the many little projects and a few great ones which combine to cause progress, the vast majority of thinking of women, and plan to gain possession of some new woman or girl. Under such circumstances, no race can rise to any high position. The causes of these conditions are various. Many Many writers dismiss the matter by saying that the social standards of tropical people are low and tend to cause northerners to conform to them.

Starting point is 02:34:08 This is true, but it explains nothing. A real though minor reason for the lowness of the standards is found in the free, open life, which is almost universal within the tropics. People are out of doors so much, and it is so easy to meet in secret that temptation arises very frequently. Much more important is a scanty dress of the women, and its character, which calls attention to their sense. Livingstone speaks with disgust of the way in which his carriers, hour after hour, disgust the breasts of the half-naked women whom they meet. Even in north, women seem to be strangely indifferent to the effect of their mode of dress upon men. They do not seem to think that they are responsible if their low-necked gowns and the making of their clothing is such a way that each little movement of their bodies can be detected, stirred men's passions. They appear oblivious to the fact that the display of their beauty often means that some of the women must pay the penalty.

Starting point is 02:35:06 Within the tropics, these conditions are exaggerated. I believe I am speaking within bounds when I say that any young man of European race, with red blood in these veins, is in more danger of deteriorating a character and efficiency because of the women of the tropics than from any other single cause. The strength of this deteriorating force is not merely external. Either the actual temptation to sexual access is greater in the tropics than elsewhere, or else the inhibitory forces are weakened by the same processes which cause people to drink to excess, to become unduly angry and to work slowly. El-Pack states that it is said that in southern Italy, sexual irregularities increase greatly at times when the hot, damp wind, known as the Syrocco, blows across the Mediterranean from the deserts of northern Africa.

Starting point is 02:35:54 This is so well recognised among the people themselves that offences committed under such circumstances are in a measure condoned. Violence too is more common at such times for self-control their very kind is weakened. In eastern Turkey the hot desert winds caused the whole community to become cross and irritable. I have there seen a missionary,

Starting point is 02:36:16 a man of unusual strength of character, shut himself up in his study all day because he knew that he was in danger of saying something disagreeable. I cite this case because, among the people whom I have known, missionaries are, on the whole, most completely masters themselves and the least likely to let minor circumstances turn them from the Christ-like lies which they are striving to live day by day before the native communities. For this same reason, to return to our immediate subject, I quote the remark of a missionary in Central America when we were discussing the morality of the country. It was a most austere man,

Starting point is 02:36:54 a member of a small and extremely devout sect, and his whole being was devoted to breaching the gospel. Speaking of his own experiences, he said, When I am in this country, evil spirits seem to attack me. I suppose you would call them something else, but that is what I think they are. When I am home in the United States, I feel pure and true, but when I come here, it seems if lust were written in the very faces of the people. In all the evils which have just been mentioned, laziness, anger, drunkenness, and immorality.

Starting point is 02:37:28 Social causes on Davoutly play an important part. A strong public opinion would save many a young northerner from drink and immorality and would keep him faithful to his work. A clear religious faith or a high ideal of duty would do the same thing. Good homes, proper dress, and many other material changes would help greatly. So too would a study of how it has come to pass that certain tropical races in spite of their environment, have developed comparatively high moral codes to which they strictly adhere, while a few have actually learned a lesson of industry.

Starting point is 02:38:04 Along with the social aspect of the question, however, are neither more nor less important goes of physical. We must discover to exactly what extent physical conditions help or hear the development of strong character. There is the purpose of the chapters that follow. End of Section 3. Section 4. of Civilization and Climate by Heelsworth Huntington.

Starting point is 02:38:32 This is a Libravox according, or Librevox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Libravox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 4. The Effect of the Seasons. In comparing Tutuans with Negroes, or tropical people with those of the temperate zone, we have been following our method as old as the days of Aristotle. Such comparisons have led to most interesting generalizations, not only at the hands of Aristotle himself, but of many other men such as Montesquillo, Hombolt and Ratzel.

Starting point is 02:39:09 Yet the importance of climate as a factor in civilization is still in doubt. For instance, no one denies that South Africa is confronted by a grave race problem, but many say that it is purely economic, and has nothing to do with climate. There is brought this view by strong arguments. Thus we are left in uncertainty. The only way to remove this is to devise some method whereby to separate the effects of climate from those due to all other causes, whether economic, historic, social, religious, racial or something else.

Starting point is 02:39:43 Accordingly, the rest of this volume will be devoted to an investigation of the exact effect of various climatic factors upon selected groups of people, and to an attempt to discover how human energy and other qualities would be distributed if all the Earth's inhabitants were influenced like these particular groups. In the study of climate, one of the most puzzling features is the diversity of opinion among persons of good judgment. For instance, at what seasons do people work fastest in the northern United States? Some will say the winter, some the spring, a considerable number of the fall, and a few the summer. Most will say that they are at least efficient in summer, but others believe that they are at their worst in the early spring.

Starting point is 02:40:28 or late winter. Again, ask a dozen friends whether they work best on clear days or cloudy. The majority will probably answer that the first clear day after a storm is where all means the best. A small number will perhaps think the matter over more carefully, and then say that after a storm, the clearness of the air and the brightness of the sun are certainly inspiring, but one really accomplishes more when it rains. This divergence of opinion is due likely to the fact that climatic effects are of two kinds, psychological and physiological. We are always conscious of the first, but often unconscious of the second. The two are admirably distinguished in Helpac's book on Geophysics, Oshinanen. An example will make the matter clear. It is well known that at high

Starting point is 02:41:19 altitudes, the number of red corpuscles in the blood increases enormously, and the capacity to absorb oxygen and to give out carbon dioxide is correspondingly modified. Yet many people can go to altitudes of 5,000 feet or more without realizing that their physiological functions have been altered. To cite my own case, up to the age of 21, I had never been a thousand feet above the sea. Then I went to live in an altitude of 4,500 feet. The only physiological effect of which I was conscious was unusual sleepiness for the first few months. But whether this is due to the altitude or to the dryness of the air, I do not know. For two or three years, I had never thought of the physiological effect of the altitude until one day, happening to have climbed to a height of 7,000 feet. I began to run uphill. I lost my breath and became tired so quickly that I was alarmed and thought I must be sick. I was much relieved when it occurred to me that the altitude was not favourable for running uphill. Manifestly, my physiological functions were different from what they were at sea level, although I was unconscious.

Starting point is 02:42:29 On the other hand, psychologically, I was daily conscious of living in a place where the air was extraordinarily clear, and where the mountains were always in sight across the splendid plain twelve hundred feet below us. Presumably, both your physiological and psychological conditions had an appreciable effect upon the work of every day, by which was the greater it is impossible to tell. In this connection, Lehman and Pedersen state an interesting fact. In Denmark and Norway, they made a series of daily tests of the strengths of three individuals by means of a dynamometer. They found that the change of atmospheric pressure due to a cent of two or three thousand feet makes no appreciable difference. A similar descent, however, is accompanied by a marked increase in strength which disappears within three or four days. They suggest that this may be due to the persistence of abundant red corpuscles when people come down from high places. The radical apostles multiply very rapidly under the influence of low pressure,

Starting point is 02:43:33 but are slower in disappearing when the pressure once more increases. Thus, for the first day or two after a person had come down from the mountains, more than the normal amount of oxygen may be absorbed, and muscular strength correspondingly increased. Possibly this is why mountaineers are generally so irresistible when they descend upon the plains in sudden raids. My colleague Professor H.E. Gregory suggests that this This may account for the fact that in the horse races of the pioneer days of the southwestern

Starting point is 02:44:03 United States, the poor, scrawny animals brought down from the mountains by the Indians usually belied their appearance and outran the better-looking animals of the white men. They may have had in excess of red corpuscles. Professor Gregory adds that in some of the highland regions of South America, there is a strict rule that, before a race, the competing horses must spend a certain number of days at the race course. This may have arisen because the animals which race directly after coming from the mountains are up to wind. There is considerable doubt as to the truth of this theory, but it illustrates the possibility

Starting point is 02:44:39 that we may be deeply influenced by atmospheric conditions of which we are almost unconscious. In our opinions as to the effect of the seasons or of daily changes of weather, the relation between psychological and physiological influences is probably the same as in the case of altitude. external conditions which we see and feel make a greater impression than those which prevail within our bodies. For example, most of us think that in the northern United States we work fast in winter. As a matter of fact, the statistics of 10,000 people show that we work slowly. The ordinary impression is apparently psychological. In order to keep warm out of doors in winter,

Starting point is 02:45:21 we walk fast and this leads us to think that we do everything rapidly. Again, the blue sky, clear air, bright sunshine and fresh colours of the first day after a storm are unquestionably inspiring, but does that inspiration make us work any better, may not lead to a nervous excitement which actually hinders our work by causing us to look out at the beauties of nature or to be less concentrated in other ways. The actual figures show that, taking the year as a whole, on duller days, especially the second such day when a storm begins to clear. we accomplish more than on bright days, even though we grumble about the clouds and the dampness.

Starting point is 02:46:02 A bright day certainly makes us cheerful, but its chief helpfulness, so far as our work is concerned, is felt when it is a change from the monotony of a series of dull days. Clouds and rain produce exactly the same rejoicing when they succeed prolonged, clear weather of the kind that we pray so highly. In America, I have never seen so much rejoicing over a bright day. day, as I have seen in Turkey when the first rain fell after the long subtropical summer with its truly superb weather. The rejoicing was impaled due to the fact that the coming of the rains means good crops, but I have again and again seen exuberant joy among people

Starting point is 02:46:40 to whom the crops may no difference whatever. I've seen Americans shout for joy because the clouds had come, and run out into the rain to let the cool drops refresh their faces. The questions which have just been asked and the possibilities that have been suggested show how indefinite are our ideas of the effect of climate. We understand its psychological effects fairly well. We know little of its physiological effects, however, except when they are extreme or unusual, when people are sick or in some other pathological condition. We need to determine how ordinary people are influenced by ordinary conditions of weather,

Starting point is 02:47:18 that is the purpose of our present discussion. The most feasible way to do this, as has already been said, is to take groups of people who live in a variable climate and measure their efficiency under different conditions of weather. The best and fullest test of efficiency is a person's daily work. If this subject does not know that he has been tested, so much the better. Peaceworkers and factories are doing exactly what is required for our purpose. Accordingly, to begin with New England, I have taken the daily records of about 300 men and 250 girls, most of them for a complete year.

Starting point is 02:47:55 The records are distributed over the four years from 1910 to 1913. The 550 people were employed in three factories in the cities of Bridgeport, New Britain and New Haven, in the southwestern part of Connecticut. In all cases, the officials in charge of the factories were most courteous and helpful in assisting me to obtain the necessary data. and I wish most want me to express my gratitude or concerned. In the selection of operatives for such a purpose, various conditions must be fulfilled. In the first place, there must be peace workers who are paid according to their work and not at a fixed rate per day. In the second place, they must be employed in factories where their output is not limited by restrictions imposed by unions, or by the fear that if they earn too much, wages will be reduced.

Starting point is 02:48:43 They must be doing work, that is, of essentially the same thing. essentially the same kind every day, so that their wages will not vary much because they are sometimes engaged upon new and unfamiliar tasks, or upon easy tasks at some times and hard ones and others. Furthermore, the same people must work steadily for month after month throughout the year, if possible, and without taking much time off, as is such a common practice among factory hands. Finally, they must be working where there is abundant incentive to steady, faithful work, where The conditions of air and light are reasonably good, and where accurate daily records

Starting point is 02:49:20 make it possible to determine not only the daily wage of each individual, but the average efficiency per hour or per day of standard length. The number of factories where all these conditions are fulfilled is small, for they demand special types of occupation and high standard of management. The three factories from which data have been obtained all meet the requirements. I explained what I wanted to the superintendent or to some other response. were official in each case. He then selected the group or groups of operatives, whom he thought proper, and placed the figures in my hands. There was no selection on my part, and each case I have used all the figures, omitting only a few obvious errors amounting to perhaps a quarter of 1%.

Starting point is 02:50:02 An investigation such as is here set forth may follow two modes of a procedure. One is to take a few persons and investigate each minutely in order to eliminate all accidental variations. The other is to take a few persons and investigate each monosal variations. The other is to take a few persons. Take many people and get rid of the personal variations by averages. The wages of a workman depend upon many factors aside from the weather. One man has been scolded by his wife because he did not earn enough last week. Another wants to buy some clothes for his little boy, and a third was drunk last night. A sword too may have far more influence than any possible climatic variation. To ferret out all these accidental circumstances is out of the question. Unfortunately, they do not occur every day, and most people work weeks at a time without being much influenced by them.

Starting point is 02:50:50 Moreover, when large numbers of people work in different cities and during different years, the individual circumstances neutralize one another. The day that John Jenkins is disturbed because his boy has run away. Tony Albano is working hard because he is going to be married. Hence by taking 500 people, we are able to eliminate accidental and individual circumstances and thus to reach a reliable result. result. All three of the factories, when so dead are obtained, make hardware, but the work varies greatly. In one factory where Italians are the predominant nationality, brass sockets for electric lights and other little brass fittings are made. One group of people here was engaged in tending machines. Some were turning out screws. Others were putting pieces of sheet

Starting point is 02:51:38 brass into automatic machines which turn out perforated plates. The work requires, little skill, but much quickness and concentration. Another group, composed lightly of Italians, was engaged in involving and drawing hot brass. A heavy and somewhat difficult kind of work required a considerable strength. It is difficult because the brass must be used hot, and hence the men must work at abnormally high temperatures. At another factory, the one from which the largest number of records was obtained during three successive years, there were two main groups of men and two of women. The girls from 16 to 20 years of age were Americans by birth, Bataferi descent, being chiefly Irish, Germans, Scandinavians, English and other North Europeans.

Starting point is 02:52:23 Their work was a packing of hinges and screws, which are first wrapped in tissue paper and then placed in paste board boxes. This is a light easy task in which dexterity and accuracy in picking up the right number of pieces are particularly important. For the first work or two, when screws are packed, the tips of the fingers become sore, which makes work proceed slowly. If a girl has changed from packing hinges to packing screws, her wages fall off for a time, but such changes are not frequent and do not appreciably influence our figures. The men at this factory were of all ages, and were the same races as the girls. They are engaged in grinding and buffing the hinges.

Starting point is 02:53:06 The first operation is hard-heavy work, The hinges are held upon rapidly revolving emery wheels in order to grind them to a smooth surface. The other operation, buffing, is similar except that it is easier, for the hinges after being ground or polished upon rapidly revolving cloth balls covered with emery dust. In the third factory, the operatives were of North European descent, almost all being native-born. Practically all, both girls and boys were young, only a few being over 20 years of age.

Starting point is 02:53:39 The older girls leave to be married, and the boys who are comparatively few and number go elsewhere to find harder and hence are better paid work. The work consists of the preparation of armatures and other wire coils for electrical purposes. Some operatives wind the wire upon rapidly revolving spools, others put together the various parts of an armature. The work is like to not tiresome.

Starting point is 02:54:02 It requires much dexterity and accuracy. Strings had to be tied at particular spots. Pieces of paper must be inserted, the machines must be stopped when the right point has been reached, and little ends have to be grasped and inserted in their proper places. Taking our three factories together, the work ranges from the hardest to the lightest. It is of many kinds requiring different degrees of strength and skill. The wages depend not only upon the amount of work completed, but the number of pieces rejected. In other words, the wages represent not only speed but accuracy. Let us now turn to the actual performance of the operatives.

Starting point is 02:54:43 This is summed up in figure 1. The four upper solid lines represent the work done week after week, each year from 1910 to 1913. In figure 1, the work of only about 410 people has been used. The rest have been omitted because the figures are not complete for a whole year. In only one case has there been a deliberate admission of figures which, which covered an entire year. That was the Italians who draw hot brass answer subject to abnormal conditions of temperature.

Starting point is 02:55:12 The method of procedure has been defined for each working day, that of which hourly wages for each group of operatives. hourly wages have been used instead of daily so as to make it possible to compare half days with whole. FUCA 1 is displayed on the page the effect of the seasons on factory operatives in Connecticut, solid lines, and at Pittsburgh dotted lines. If part of the operatives were absent on any particular day, they are simply admitted, and the average for the rest was taken.

Starting point is 02:55:43 When the daily averages had been found, they were averaged together by weeks. In doing this, a half-day, such as the Saturdays in summer, was given only half as much weight as a whole day, and days when part of the operatives were absent, or when the machinery was shut down for a while, were given a correspondingly smaller weight. Those allowances everywhere made for irregularities in the number of employees and the length of time that they work. The final process consisted of combining the different groups. In order that each individual may have the same importance, or the figures have been reduced to percentages. In this way, if a girl owned a maximum wage of 12 cents an hour, it is called 100%.

Starting point is 02:56:24 While the man's maximum wages was 30 cents, the sum also was called 100%. Thus the variations in the wages of the girl and the man had the same weight in our final computations. Because of the enormous amount of work which would have been entailed, it was not possible to reduce the wages of each individual to percentages, but only those of each group. Had it been possible to work out of each individual's wages separately, the results shown in our curves would practically have been more striking than is now the case. In FECA 1, the height of the curves indicates the efficiency of the effect. efficiency of the operatives of various seasons for four successive years. The fifth curve, heavier than the others, is the average of the preceding four. Turning to the upper line, we see that in early January, 9010, the efficiency of about

Starting point is 02:57:15 60 factory operatives in Bridgeport was 88% as much as during the week of maximum efficiency that year. By the middle of the month, it had fallen to 86%. Later it rose fairly steady to 96% at the end of April, then it dropped a little, or rose till higher in June and fell off distinctly during the summer, but not so low as in winter. During the autumn and rose steadily until early November, when it reached the highest point of the year, after which it fell rapidly. In the same way each curve may be traced week by week, I shall return to them shortly. Meanwhile, it would be advantageous for the reader to look them over and draw

Starting point is 02:57:54 his own conclusions, pegging out the features which are common to all, and noting those which show different degrees of intensity from you to year. In figure 1, it will be noticed that the solid lines never reach 100%. This is partly because they have been smooth, and partly because they have been corrected to compensate for the increased efficiency due to practice. The process of smoothing, as everybody knows, is used by mathematicians to eliminate minor variations and thus permit the main thread of a curve to be more apparent. immediately takes off the high points and the low.

Starting point is 02:58:32 The figures for three weeks are averaged, and the average is used instead of the original figure for the middle week. In the present case, and in practically all the curves in this book, the process of smoothing has been performed twice on each curve. If the letters A to E represent the average wages for five successive weeks, the figure actually used for the middle week, C, is retained from the following equation. C equals A plus 2B plus 3C plus 2D plus E divided by 9. This process of smoothing can add nothing to a curve.

Starting point is 02:59:06 It simply takes away the less important details. You've carried far enough. It will produce straight lines. In addition to smoothing the curves, I have corrected them for the effects of practice. The curves for 1911 and 1912 and 1913 are all based on the same factors. New Britain. When the wages for each year are averaged, we find that those for 1912 were 1.5% higher than for 1911, and those for 1913 were 1.5% higher than for 1912. This means that constant practice caused the average employee, including both old hands

Starting point is 02:59:44 anew, to be 1.5% more skillful at the end of the year than at the beginning. Hence from January onward, the curve raises a little until in December, it is 1.5% 5% higher than it would be the operatives had not grown more skillful. To eliminate this, we simply tip the entire curve, raising the January end by 3 quarters of 1%, and depressing the December end by the same amount. The fluctuations, of course, remain unchanged. In figure 1, if there had been no correction, the highest and lowest points of the upper curve would lie at the points indicated by the crosses, and the other curves would be changed in

Starting point is 03:00:25 corresponding ratios. There'd be no change at the end. of June. Turning to less technical matters, let us consider the degree of resemblance in the four upper solid lines of figure 1. All are unmistakably low in January. Then from February to June we note a general rise varied by minor fluctuations which differ from year to year. At the middle or end of June all reach a distinct maximum, although in 1912 and 1913 it is of slight proportions. Next we have a drop during the summer, pronounced in 1910 and 1911, but not at all prominent in 1912

Starting point is 03:01:04 and scarcely noticeable in 1913. Following this, there comes a series of irregular fluctuations differing from curve to curve, but in each case culminating in a strong maximum at the end of October or the beginning of November. Six weeks later, in the middle of December, out of the slight maximum is suggested, and then all the curves drop suddenly. In the average curve, the minor fluctuations tend to disappear. They are more or less accidental and represent peculiar conditions which pertain to one year, but not to others. The features that have been named, however, show no sign of disappearing. They are five in number, namely an extremely low place in midwinter and a less pronounced low place in mid-summer,

Starting point is 03:01:50 a high point in June, a still higher point at the end of October, and a hump in mid-December. Much the most variable feature is a low place in summer. This is highly significant as we shall shortly see. Before we discuss the cause of the variability of the summers, let us consider the meaning of the curves as a whole. In the first place, it is evident that, although details may vary from year to year, the general course of events is uniformly from low in the winter to high in the fall, with a drop of more or less magnitude in summer.

Starting point is 03:02:25 To what can this be due? Did the factory shut down in January or run on part-time, or decreased work because of lack of orders, or to overhaul the machinery and so forth? Do the high wages in October and November indicate a special rush of orders at that time? Any variations in the way in which the factory is running must be reflected in the wages of the operatives, but in the present case this does not apply to the main variations, although it may apply to minor details. In neither of the two factories you considered

Starting point is 03:02:59 were the responsible heads able to offer any explanation of the peculiarities of the curves on the basis of factory management or the exigencies of business. Both are engaged in making stable articles, the chief demand for which comes in the spring when building operations begin.

Starting point is 03:03:19 There is no Christmas rush on hinges and in the trick-light sockets. After Christmas, the factory is shut down for a few days at the beginning of the year, but that ought to increase rather than diminish the hourly earnings. When operatives are working only part-time, they feel the need of earning as much as possible each hour. If part of the hands are laid off, that would increase the average hourly wages, for the weaker ones would be dropped, and the average ability of those who remain would be high. In this connection, it is important to understand that in these factories,

Starting point is 03:03:53 man is free to work as hard as he wishes at any time of the year. The managers have deliberately adopted to the policy of getting as much work as possible and of each operative. Overhead charges for interest, superintendents, bookkeeping, salesmen, and other outside expenses, and also the charges for unproductive labour, such as engineers, janitors and the like, are no greater no matter how hard the productive employees work. If the producing operatives should doubt their output, most of the other expenses would scarcely increase at all. Hence it would not only be possible to pay double wages for double work, but it would be profitable to the factory even if it paid perhaps $2.50,

Starting point is 03:04:33 where now pays $1. In view of these conditions, both factories have adopted systems whose special object is to encourage extra exertion. In one case, part of the men work upon what is known as a premium plan. The management and the men have agreed that the various task shall be rated according to the number of hours which they may fairly be supposed to require. If a man performs an eight-hour task, he used to be paid for eight hours' work, no matter whether he does it in six hours or ten. If, however, he finishes the work in less than his stipulated time, he goes to work at another task for the rest of the period. For half of this time, he used to be paid while the factory gets the benefit of the other half.

Starting point is 03:05:20 For example, if an 8-hour task is finished in 6, the operative works two more hours. He is then paid for 9 hours, although he has only work date, while the factory gets 10 hours work and pays for 9. Thus, both are the gainers. In one case, the managers make a mistake in deciding upon the number of hours needed for a certain task. It has never been done quickly, and no one knew how rapidly it might be done. The man who does it soon earned $10 or $12 a day, where he formerly earned perhaps $2.5 or 3. Inasmuch as a management had agreed not to change the rates, they stuck to their bargain. The task only occupies one day each month, and the matter is not serious.

Starting point is 03:06:09 Moreover, even though the operative earns such high wages, the work actually costs the factory less than what he was earning $2.5. In the other factory, the girls are stimulated by bonuses. That is, they are not only paid for their work, but if they do more that is expected they are paid a bonus. For example, if a girl's wages averaged about a dollar a day, and she did work worth $1.20. She did not receive $1.20 but $1.25 or even $1.40. The factory finds this worthwhile because so much more can be produced without any increase in charge for interest, office work or rather overhead expenses.

Starting point is 03:06:53 When this bonus system was first introduced, it produced only a slight effect. The girls did not seem to care about the bonuses and made a little effort to get them. Then the management realized that the parents were getting the extra money, and so it made no difference to the girls, most of whom gave their pay envelopes unopened to their fathers or mothers. Thereafter, the bonus was not put in the pay envelope, but was handed out in loose change. The girls kept it and began to work hard. In the third factory, whose figures are not extensive enough to be used in figure one, by which enter into other computations, a similar system is employed.

Starting point is 03:07:30 A limit is set for each task. If the work is performed within that time, a bonus is paid. Otherwise, the operatives received only the regular pay, no matter how much time they spend. The introduction of this system has increased the output of the factory enormously. It is much as the various systems of bonuses and premiums are equally applicable at all times of the year, it seems impossible to find in the factories themselves any reason why earnings should be very low in January, moderately low in July, high in June, and very high in November. We seem forced to search outside of the factories for the reasons for our seasonal fluctuations of wages.

Starting point is 03:08:10 Such things as panics, hard times or strikes would certainly cause a general change in the conditions of work, but nothing of the kind occurred during the period under consideration. Orover, such events do not recur at the same time each year. Aside from the reasons, the only event which recurs regularly year after year at the same time and which is important enough to cause variations in wages is Christmas. Its effect can be seen, unmistakably, in each of the solid year occurs. In that for 1910 it appears in the little hump which culminates during the next to the last week in December. In the other three it comes a week earlier because the inspector does not pay the week's wages on the Saturday of the week in question,

Starting point is 03:08:55 but a week later after there has been time to check up the work and make allowances for that which is poorly done. Hence money for Christmas must be earned before the middle of December. If there were no such thing as Christmas, the wages would probably draw. off in the way shown by the dash line in the average curve of figure 1. After Christmas, the wages probably drop somewhat lower that would otherwise be this case, for there must be a reaction from the previous effort, but it is noticeable that the wages do not reach their lower step directly after Christmas, but keep on falling for nearly a month.

Starting point is 03:09:32 Something else keeps them low. The Christmas hump is significant chiefly because it shows, unmistakably, that an outside stimulus which applies to all the operatives produces a distinct result. We may properly infer that the other permanent features of our curves are also due to some outside force which influences all the operatives. That force must be connected with the seasons and it must be far more powerful than Christmas, for its effects are far greater. There seems to be no recourse except to ascribe the fluctuations of the curves to climate. The verity of the conclusions just reached is strongly.

Starting point is 03:10:08 confirmed by comparison with other regions and other types of human activity. Figure 2, which, for convenience, is who divided into two overlapping portions, presents a series of curves arranged according to climate. Those from regions with cold winters and cool summers been at the top, and cool winters and hot summers at the bottom. The curves range from the Adairondrax in northern New York to Tampa in southern Florida, and include one from Denmark. With them I've repeated some of the curves of Figure 1 for the sake of comparison.

Starting point is 03:10:44 The most remarkable feature of this series is that although there is great diversity of place and of activity, all the curves harmonized with what would be expected on the basis of Figure 1. Figure 2A is displayed on the previous page, Human Activity and the Seasons. Figure 2B is displayed on the previous page, Human Activity and the Seasons. The verse curve A is based on the work of Lorassan Brown, a physician who has published records of the weight gained by patients suffering from pulmonary tuberculosis at a sanatorium at Saranac Lake in the Adiranax. A gain of weight in this disease is a favorable symptom, for one of the most marked effects of tuberculosis is a cause of wasting way of the flesh. In their present tabulation, the patients who lost weight are not included. and a drop in the curve does not indicate the loss of weight, but merely a decreased rate of gain.

Starting point is 03:11:41 If the patients who lost weight were also included, however, the form of the curve would still be the same. According to Brown, the Adirondacks, as everyone knows, having long cold winters, while the summers are delightfully bracing, being warm enough to be pleasant, but never hot enough to be debilitating. Hence, I'm about the 1st of April to the end of September, the sick people make a mark gain. During the other six months, although they may gain more than would be the case in their own homes, they do not find the climate nearly so advantageous as in summer, and their disadvantage increases until the snow disappears. The next curve B is repetition of the Connecticut curve for 1913. That year the winter was by no means so severe as is ordinary the case in the ad-dryand-ax.

Starting point is 03:12:31 Hence the curve does not remain low quite so long as does a, and does not begin to fall so soon. The summer, however, was almost as cool as among the entire index, and hence there is no drop during July. The next pair of curves represents a year with a hot summer in Connecticut, C, and the death rate for 15 years instead of New York, D. The curve for deaths has been turned upside down, so that high places present a few deaths, that is, high-fifference. fatality correspond to high energy in the factory operatives. In New York state as a whole, the effect of the summers is very different from what it is in the Ediron Dax. The city sweltered for a few weeks in July, and that sends a death rate up enormously, especially among children who are quickly taken sick, and who either die after a few days' illness or recover. That is why

Starting point is 03:13:25 the curve drops so sharply in mid-summer. In the winter, on the contrary, although it drops almost equally low, the maximum number of deaths per day does not come till March, although by that time the average energy of what it is has risen considerably. This is because people become sick in January and February, especially those who are elderly, and finally die after lingering illnesses quite unlike those of children. The death rate of other places might be used quite as well as that of New York. The Japanese rate, for example, is as follows. The figures being those for the 10 years beginning with 1890. The figures represent percentages of the normal.

Starting point is 03:14:09 Those for the state of New York computed on the same basis are added in parentheses. A table is displayed on the page, comparing the months to total numbers. Here the course of events is almost the same as in New York, but with significant differences which harmonize with the climates of the two places. Winter in Japan is less severe than in New York,

Starting point is 03:14:31 and its effects do not last so long, for the higher mortality is in February instead of March. The Japanese summers, on the contrary, are characterized by prolonged heat and also by great humidity, especially during the rainy season from July to September. At the end of this period the mortality is at a maximum. The debilitating effect of the summer lasts so long than November and December have a higher death rate than May in June. The late spring is especially favorable, not only because of its own excellent character, but because follows a winter which is not severe enough to be highly disadvantageous.

Starting point is 03:15:08 Cruz E&F represent the strength of 90 school children in Copenhagen as measured by Le Mans and Pedersen, and the average energy are factory operatives for four years in Connecticut. The Danish measurements were carried on during the school years of 1904 to 1905 when 60 children were tested weekly and 1905 to 1906 when 10 were tested daily. By combining the two years into one and making allowance for the fact that children grow stronger from month to month, just as factory operatives grow more skillful. We obtain Curvee in Figure 2, since near the summer and winter is especially severe in Denmark.

Starting point is 03:15:44 The dip at the two seasons is the same. The maxima in June and November are almost synchronous with those in Connecticut. The minimum are both delayed six or seven weeks, but the winter minimum of March agrees with the maximum death rate in New York. The summer minimum ought possibly to come in July or August, but the figures for those months are not obtainable, for during that time the schools in Copenhagen have vacation. In addition to this, we should expect Danish curve to lag a little behind that of Connecticut because of the maritime climate.

Starting point is 03:16:18 Inasmuch as Denmark is constantly swept by west winds from the ocean, it does not so quickly grow cool in the winter nor warm in summer, as does Connecticut, where the prevailing winds are from the continental interior. Thus it appears that the strength of Danish children and the energy of factory operatives in Connecticut have an almost identical relation to seasonal variations of climate. Judging by curves C to F in figure 2, one might hazard the hypothesis that man is subject to a seasonal rhythm which repeats itself wherever he goes without regard to the climate. On this basis, one would expect maximum of efficiency in June and November in all parts of the

Starting point is 03:16:56 world. In curves A and B, however, we have already seen that we're already seen that we're the summers are particularly favorable and the winter is unfavorable, this rhythm breaks down, and the June maximum and summer minimum disappear. If we go farther south to places where the winters are favorable and the summer is very hot, we find a change in the opposite direction, for the winter minimum tends to disappear and the summer minimum greatly increases and shoves the two maximum more and more into the winter until the two Kolesk. This is evident in Curves G to L. These represent variations in the wages of

Starting point is 03:17:31 peace workers in southern factories compiled according to the method used in Connecticut. Curve G shows the work of 65 Anglo-Saxon girls in a tobacco factory in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. They were pasting labels on cans. Notice how their winter minimum comes in early May instead of June. In September the curve drops suddenly. This is a because of because at that time the effects of the war began to be felt. The price of cotton fell so low that the South was in great distress, and the sale of the goods made by this factory began to be curtailed. Therefore the girls were not given as much work as they could do.

Starting point is 03:18:12 Curse H and I are from Cotton Mills in South California and Georgia, and each represent two mills. In South Carolina, the two mills are close together at Columbia, but on the other case, they are 15 or 20 miles apart, one being in Georgia, near Augusta and the other across the Savannah River in South Carolina. The operatives in all cases are of pure Anglo-Saxon stock, chiefly of the poor white class. Men and women are included in nearly equal numbers. Part are weavers, while others engaged in the occupations known as slubbing, spooling, and speeding, ten machines which spin the thread and widened on

Starting point is 03:18:53 bobbins ready for the weavers. In all coal-on factories the air in the weaving room and to less extent in the others is kept at a high temperature and a high humidity. This is necessary because when the air becomes cool or especially when it becomes dry the thread is up to break and cause blemishes in the cloth. Hence in factories where high-grade goods are manufactured the inside temperature is so abnormal and the amount of goods produced depends so largely on the breakage that it is almost impossible to obtain satisfactory figures. In the factories here considered, however,

Starting point is 03:19:29 nothing but coarse cloth is manufactured. The breaking of the thread does little harm, and relatively slight attention is paid to the temperature and humidity of the weaving rooms. Moreover, for slubbing, speeding and spawning, the temperature and humidity made far less difference than for weaving. Hence the variations in the amount of goods produced per person depend largely on the energy of the operatives in watching their machines and preventing them

Starting point is 03:19:56 from standing idle because of broken threads, empty bobbins, or other accidents. The exigencies of business, that is, the demands for goods, make no difference to the operatives, so far as their production per hour is concerned, for the machines run at a uniform speed where their factory runs one day, a week or six. The cotton mill curves are essentially the same as that of the tobacco factory. In each there is a double spring maximum due to accidental circumstances, but the true maximum would probably come about the end of April. In I, the spring maximum comes still earlier,

Starting point is 03:20:33 that is in mid-April, as is appropriate to a place so far south. The autumn maxima, on the other hand, come latter than in Connecticut, one being in early December and the other toward the end of November. The work of carpenters in Jacksonville, as shown in Curve J, is different from anything else that is here considered because it is performed out of doors. The 15 men per year, whose records are here used, were engaged in making the same kind of repairs time after time. A careful record of the hours that they spend is kept, but the number varies greatly on account to the weather. If it rains, they cannot work. Summer is a rainy period, but that does not tend to diminish the amount of work.

Starting point is 03:21:18 done per hour. In fact it increases it. The rain comes in hard showers and while it is falling the men rarely try to work and the time is not reckoned. When the rain is over they work better than before because the air is cooler although still far from being cool. In winter on the contrary from December to March the rain is a pronounced hindrance. It often comes in the form of drizzle and the carboners try to keep on working while it is falling. Moreover, after the rain the wood is wet there is apt to be a chilly wind the hands feel numb and everything is opposed to great efficiency yet in spite of this more work-power

Starting point is 03:21:58 hour is done in February the worst winter a month than in May June July or August if these men were to work in well-protected sheds which were heated on the occasional cool days there is little doubt that in December their curve would reach a maximum higher than that now reached in November while even if the following months were not still better, they would at least show no pronounced drop. The lower two curves, Kay and Hell, represent the work of Sakharamakos at Jacksonville in northern Florida and Tampa in the southern part of the state. Those in Jacksonville were mostly Cubans, nearly two-thirds been Negroes, and the rest of

Starting point is 03:22:37 Spanish descent. At Tampa only a handful of Negroes is included, but a large sprinkling of real Spanias is found among the Spanish Cubans. The curves for the cigar factories are compiled on a different basis from the others. The reason is that there are no definite hours. The factories are open 12 hours a day, usually from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. The operatives sort are in as they please, provided they do not come later than 8 a.m. And leave when they choose, although an attempt is made to let no one depart before 4 p.m. While at work, they sit close together at tables and talk volubly except when a hired reaffirm.

Starting point is 03:23:16 is vociferating the news from a Spanish newspaper. At some time in the morning they go out for lunch, but are rarely gone as much as half an hour. Otherwise, they stay at their work till it is finished. Since the rhino fixed hours, we cannot measure the exact earnings per hour, as we have done in other cases, but only the earnings in proportion to the time

Starting point is 03:23:37 that a man might have worked if he had chosen to do so. In other words, we measure partially the actual capacity for work, and partly the inclination to work. In general, the two seem to vet out together, but the work of the New York State Commission on School of Ventilation has shown that during short periods of high temperature, the capacity may remain unimpaired, while the inclination declines. In the practical work of life, a lack of inclination is almost worse than a lack of capacity.

Starting point is 03:24:09 During the warmer half of the year, the possible working time in the Florida cigar factories may be properly reckoned as 11 and a half hours. In winter, however, the light and morning and evening is not adequate for the somewhat exacting work of cigar making. Therefore, the men are not allowed to begin so early as in summer, nor to work so late. The exact time depends on the degree of cloudiness, as well as the height of the sun. The factory managers say that in December the working time is contailed an hour and a quarter or more for the month as a whole. In order not to make the work, winter production appear unduly large, I have reckoned that during the shortest week, not month,

Starting point is 03:24:49 the working time is an hour and nine minutes, that is, 10% less than in summer. Before and after that date, it steadily increases to the solstices when it reaches the normal. Thus we get the lower curve for Tampa. It drops low in summer and rises to a single maximum in the winter. At Jacksonville, the variations in the length of the working day on a count of light are less than at Tampa because a lower-grade of cigars is made and hence the men are allowed to work under less favorable conditions of light. Inasmuch as the exact work of dark mornings and evenings cannot be determined, I have drawn two lines at each end of the curve.

Starting point is 03:25:29 The lower shows the wages if no allowance is made for light, and the upper is the full tamper allowance is made. The actual truth lies between the two. For our present purpose, this uncertainly makes no difference, since in either case we have the summer minimum and winter maximum, which all our other studies would lead us to expect in this latitude. The ex-gease of business have more effect on the work of the cigar makers than on that of the other operatives employed in figure two,

Starting point is 03:26:00 but they do not determine the main fluctuations of the curves here used. In some cigar factories, to be sure, if business is slack, the employees are often not allowed to make more than half or two-thirds-usual number of cigars. For this reason, I've admitted two factories of figures I worked up, but whose curves I've finally found to be almost wholly controlled by the supply and demand of the business. In the three factories which were finally used, however, that is, one at Jacksonville and two at Tampa, the operatives are only rarely placed on a limit. It is too expensive, especially where high-priced cigars are made, for four cigars a day have to be allowed to each man for smokes. Each man smokes his full number, if not more, no matter whether he makes 100 cigars or 200.

Starting point is 03:26:50 The ruts season for cigars begins in June or July and becomes increasingly intense until about the middle of November, by which time most of the Christmas orders have been received. Businesses dullest in January and February. The operatives, however, know nothing about this, except that they see that men are taken on or discharged. The frequency of changes in the number of employees makes the cigars makers life hard, and accounts for much of his proverbial shiftlessness. Another thing which affects the wages of cigar makers is the dampness of the air. During the warm, damp days so characteristic of the Florida summer, that tobacco is very pliable and easily worked,

Starting point is 03:27:31 while on dry winter days its brittleness causes it to break so that the work is hampered. If it were not for this, the difference between summer and winter would be intensified. The most striking proof of the effect of the seasons is yet to be recorded. It consists of a series of data corresponding to those of the Connecticut factories, but based on the work of operatives in a large factory engaged in making electrical apparatus at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The employees whose wages were investigated were employed, employed in winding wire coils, assembling the parts of motors and other similar operations which demand accuracy and speed. The admirable way in which the records of this company are kept renders the figures of great value,

Starting point is 03:28:15 but lack of time and funds has made it necessary to limit the present investigation to monthly, or in 1912, bi-weekly averages of hourly earnings. For this reason, the resulting curves, which have been inserted as fine dotted lines in figure one, page 59, are smoother than those of Connecticut where the daily earnings have been utilized. The number of peace workers on which these Pittsburgh curves are based is shown in the following table. 1910 approximately 950 men and girls in winding section. 1911 approximately 750 men and girls in winding section. 1912 27 girls, winders, 42 men, tinners, blacksmiths, painters. In this case all the operatives were especially steady hands who worked throughout the year.

Starting point is 03:29:06 In the few cases where they were absent, interpolation has been resorted to, and since this year's curve is more reliable than the others which are based on all the operatives in a given section or in the whole factory without regard to whether they worked steadily. 1913. Approximately 7,000 men and girls in the entire factory. The general form of the curves of Bixburg and Connecticut is obviously the same.

Starting point is 03:29:31 In 1910, notice a deep dip in January and the moderate drop in summer. The next year, 1911, presents quite a different aspect. Because the hot summer, the depressions in January and July are almost equally deep, the difference between the highest and lowest points is less than in most years, and the autumn maximum does not rise above that of May or June, as is usually the case. The curves for 1912 both show a deep depression in winter, which lasts unusually long. During the summer, on the contrary, there is not so great a decrease in efficiency as during the previous two years. Finally, in 1913, both curves rise steadily from midwinter to late fall, with only a slight drop in summer.

Starting point is 03:30:18 The agreement between the curves for Connecticut and Pennsylvania is far too close to be accidental. At Pittsburgh, just as the other factories, variations a total number of employees form an accurate measure of the demand for work. but these, by no means, vary in harmony with the actual production per operative. Often the average amount of work done by a given group of individuals, while all the peace workers declines within the number of operatives increases. But quite as often, the reverse is true. Hence the conditions under which the factories are run do not explain the variations in wages. Moreover, it stands to reason that the same irregular variations would not occur season after season

Starting point is 03:30:59 in an electric factory in Pittsburgh. and in brass and hinge factories in Connecticut 400 miles away, unless all were under the same control. The only common controlling factor which vera is in harmony with the curves of figure 1 is the general character of the seasons. This is essentially the same in both places. We've now seen that from New England to Florida, physical strength and health veri in accordance with the seasons.

Starting point is 03:31:26 Extremes seem to produce the same effect everywhere. The next question is whether mental activity varies in the same way. lemann and peterson made a series of tests of the ability of school children in addition though general conclusion is that mental work varies in the same way as physical but reaches its high sufficiency at a lower temperature this agrees with the investigations of a few other scientists and with the general conclusions of the world as summed up in the old age no one is worth the tinker's dam on whom the snow does not fall before we can accept this however tests are needed on a large scale. The most feasible method of present seems to be by means of the marks of students in such schools as West Point and Anapolis. There the young men live an extremely regular life

Starting point is 03:32:18 with a minimum of outside distractions. The recitations are greater with great severity and regularity, and a given subject is often taught six days in a week. The marks are handed to the heads of departments at frequent intervals and are posted where the students can see them. No class is taught in divisions of more than 10 or 12, so that every student has a full opportunity to show how well he is prepared. In order to avoid all chance of favouritism, the instructors do not keep the same division

Starting point is 03:32:47 month after month, but change every few weeks. Altogether, it would be hard to devise our system which more it thoroughly eliminates the human and accidental factors. As an instructor at West Point put it, we are not really teachers, we are just put here as officers who see whether the cadets have studied their books and to decide how many marks to take off. This is preamently true in mathematics, where the solution of a problem is either right or wrong and can be marked accordingly. When I broached my plan to the superintendents of the two academies, he was received with much interest, and every facility was placed to my disposal. I take this opportunity to express my warm appreciation of the courtesy.

Starting point is 03:33:30 Some of the instructors were commissioners see that the proper records were available. The marks of individuals were of course not necessary. The various marks reached day or week were merely added and averaged. The data who employed and praised the following. One, the weekly averages in mathematics for the first year, or interim class anopause for the six academic years beginning with 1907-908, and ending with 1912 to 1913. These classes recite six times a week.

Starting point is 03:34:01 2. The daily marks of first year class in English and Annapolis for the year 1912 to 1913. This class recites four times a week. 3. The daily marks of mathematics for a year and a half for the class in West Point in 1909 and 1910. Recitations are held six days a week. The classes at Annapolis average about 220 in number and those at West Point about 120. The entire number of students whose marks have been used is between 17 and 1800,

Starting point is 03:34:32 but as some of the marks cover a period of a year and a half, the total is equivalent to about 1,900 students for a single year. All these marks have been combined into the three lower curves of figure 3. Before discussing them, a few words should be said as to the method of preparation. Figure 3 is displayed on the page, seasonal variations of mental compared with physical activity. The systems of marking at the two are cataping. are quite different. At Adopolis, the Department of Mathematics tries to keep the average as nearly uniform as possible. If the instructors discover that the average is rising or falling,

Starting point is 03:35:10 they mark more severely or leniently to counteract it. At West Point, on the other hand, the marks regularly been high at the opening of the term and fall steadily toward the end. There is no attempt to keep them at a uniform level, but the instructors merely mark harder and harder or give more and more work as time goes on. Both systems, tend to mask the effect of the seasons. The influence of the deliberate attempt to keep the marks at uniform level at Annapolis is likely overcome by using a series of six years. The irregularities of one year counteract those of another except where special circumstances such as vacations interpose a disturbing element at the same time each year. In the English department at Annapolis,

Starting point is 03:35:53 there is less trinacy about keeping the marks at a uniform level, and those of a single year show clearly the normal seasonal trend. At the end of the year, however, I have admitted the two weeks before examinations because there was then a sudden spurt accompanied by abnormally high marks. Otherwise, all the anapolis marks, without exception, have been employed

Starting point is 03:36:15 in computing the curves of figure three. A west point has been necessary to eliminate the effect of the steady fall. The method is the same as in the correction for increasing practice. In order to eliminate the effect, of such things as football games, holidays, examinations, reprimands, or other circumstances which clearly have nothing to do with climate. I have admitted all the days whose marks for

Starting point is 03:36:39 more than 10% above or below what would be expected at that particular date. Emissions of this sort are such a common procedure in astronomical and physical measurements that the mathematician requires nothing more than a mere mention of what has been done. To the layman, it may seem that they are of Christ, importance. In reality, they really altered the general form of the final curves. For exceptionally high figures balance exceptionally low. In the second curve of figure three, the effect is slight except upon the first weeks of January. Though the minor maximum which occurs just after the Christmas recess, it is only about

Starting point is 03:37:18 half as large as it would be if no debtor were admitted. At Anapolis, it is not necessary to omit the days of special events because the marks are not subject to such wide fluctuations. It is interesting to notice that the classes in mathematics there are influenced by the vacation, which comes at the end of January, just as at West Point. The English marks, on the contrary, are uninfluenced, probably because English is an easier subject than mathematics. Moreover, as it is taught fewer days per week, and hence has less weight in determining the final marks for the work of the whole year, the students do not devote so much energy to it.

Starting point is 03:37:59 By this time, the reader has doubtless interpreted figure three for himself. The upper line is a standard average curve of factory operatives in Connecticut. It is the same as the average curve of figure one, except that it begins of September instead of January. It is placed here to permit a comparison of the physical work with mental. The curves of mental activity all resemble it in having two main maxima in fall and spring. At West Point, where the climate is essentially the same as the same. in Connecticut. The mental maximum in the fall comes about 10 days later than the factory maximum, while the spring maximum comes two and a half months earlier. Both

Starting point is 03:38:36 occur when the main temperature is a little above 40 degrees Fahrenheit. At Anabolos, the maximum are, as it were, pressed toward the winter. The fall maximum in English, to be sure, begins early November, but last till the middle of December, since it represents the work of only a single year, it is less important than the curve of mathematics, whose full maximum does not come to the first half of December. The spring maximum above curves comes in the middle of March. At Anapolis, just as at West Point, the time of best work is when the mean temperature is not far from 40 degrees.

Starting point is 03:39:15 Summing up the matter, we find the results of investigations in Denmark, Japan, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, the Carolinas, Georgia, and the United. and Florida are in harmony. They all show that except in Florida, no over the winter nor the summer is the most favorable season. Both physical and mental activity reach pronounced maximum in the spring and fall, with minima in midwinter and midsummer. The consistency of our results is of great importance. It leads to belief that in all parts of the world, the climate is exercising an influence which can readily be measured, and can be subjected to statistical analysis. It justifies us in going on with confidence to ascertain exactly what effect is produced by each of the climatic elements, such as temperature, humidity, and pressure. End of Section 4. Section 5 of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington.

Starting point is 03:40:19 This is a Librevox recording. All Librevox recordings in the public domain. For more information on a volunteer, please visit Librevox.org. Recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 5. The effect of humidity and temperature. Having seen that both physical and mental energy vary from season to season according to well-defined laws, let us now investigate the special features of seasonal change, which are most effective. Temperature is far the most important, but before considering it, let us discuss those of minor importance. One of these is light.

Starting point is 03:40:53 Many students have ascribed great influence to sunlight, and to its variations from season to season, or from one part of the world to another. For example, C.W. Woodruff, an army surgeon, has written an interesting book on the effect of tropical light on white men. Its main thesis is that the backwardness of tropical countries is due to excessive sunlight. The actinic rays at the blue end of the spectrum, especially those beyond the limits of vision, possess great chemical power, as is evident from the fact that, by their aid, photographs can be taken even when no light is visible to the naked eye.

Starting point is 03:41:29 Such rays, when they fall upon the human body, are thought to stimulate the cells to greater activity. At first this is beneficial. If it goes to excess, the cells apparently break down, the process is analogous to the ripening of fruit. A moderate change in the green tissues produces the highly favorable condition of ripeness. More brings on decay. Thus while the return of the light after the winter of the temperate zone may be beneficial, excessive light may be highly injurious. So far as our factory operatives are concerned, no effect of light is to be discerned in the south, while in Connecticut it is at best only slight. The heavy line next to the bottom in figure 1, page 84, shows that from mid-September to the middle of November the amount of work

Starting point is 03:42:18 increases, although the days are growing shorter. This is exactly opposite to what would be expected if the shortness of the days were of primary importance. Moreover, in June, when the days are longest, we find a sudden drop. If the length of the days had much to do with the matter, there is no reason why more work should be done in November than in June. Nor should we find that a shortening of the days during September is accompanied by the same kind of increase inefficiency which is seen in March when the days, although the same lengths in September,

Starting point is 03:42:52 are growing longer instead of shorter. For all these reasons, we assign only slight importance to variations in the amount of light. Nevertheless, some effect can apparently be detected. Compare the two lower curves of Figure 1. In spite of the low efficiency occasioned by the winter is cold, the curve of work begins to rise sooner than does the curve of temperature which is placed below it. The first appreciable lengthening of the days in January may cause is by its cheering and stimulating influence.

Starting point is 03:43:24 The line of reasoning applied to light applies also to the possibility that the variations of the curve of work depend on the extent to which people are shut up in the house. Obviously, this has nothing to do with the two maxima in November and May, nor with the minimum in July. In November, people's houses have been shut up for a month more or less, while in May in July, they're wide open, or at least as wide open as they ever are. The extremely low minimum in January, however, is probably due at least, in part to the necessity of shutting up the house in winter. In October the weather becomes so cold that people will begin to shut up their houses. They lead in stuffy, unvandulated quarters and fail to take exercise

Starting point is 03:44:06 in the open air. By the middle of November, this has had time to produce an effect which naturally becomes more and more marked as the weeks go on. This would harmonise with the decline of energy from November to the middle of January. In January, however, the decline ought not to cease it is due chiefly to confinement within the house. It ought to continue until about the middle of March, for not till that time did people in Connecticut begin to let in the outside air, and not even then to any great degree.

Starting point is 03:44:39 As a curve of work has risen distinctly by that time, some other factor must intervene, presumably the increase of light to a slight extent, and the rise of the temperature to a larger extent. A third factor to be considered at this point is a relative humidity of the atmosphere. A sharp distinction must be drawn between the humidity of the outside air and that which prevails within doors.

Starting point is 03:45:04 Physicians, students of factory management, school superintendents and many other people have repeatedly discussed the supposed harmful effects of the dry air in our buildings during the winter. A much more fully attested fact is the harmful influence of great humidity during hot weather. We are more conscious of this than at the harm arising from excessive dryness. This does not necessarily mean that the total effect is worse than that of dryness. However, for hot humid days are much rarer than the winter days when the air in our houses is drier

Starting point is 03:45:35 than that of the majority of deserts. So far as there occurs as a work are concerned, humidity does not seem to be responsible for the fluctuations except as it is influenced by temperature. In other words, the average humidity of the outside air from season to season does not vary in such a way as to cause maxima in May. and November and Minima in January and July. The average humidity of the outside air in November and in January is not greatly different. Nevertheless, the inside humidity is probably an important factor in causing the low efficiency of midwinter. The relation of work and humidity among the factory operatives in Connecticut is illustrated in figure four. There the year has been divided in three parts.

Starting point is 03:46:23 winter, two spring and autumn, and three summer. In each part all the days having a given humidity have been averaged together and the smooth results have been plotted. The heavy solid lines represent what I believe to be the true conditions when other disturbing elements are removed, while the dotted lines show the actual figures. In winter the dampest days are unmistakably the times the greatest efficiency. We may shiver when the air is raw, but we work well. Figure 4 is displayed on the page, relative humidity and work in Connecticut. This is partly because in winter the dampest third of the December's, January's, etc., averages nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than the driest third. Moreover, moist air at any

Starting point is 03:47:13 given temperature feels warmer than dry and hence is likely to cause people to overheat their houses. In the spring and fall, when the temperature ranges from freezing to 70 degrees, with an average of about 50 degrees Fahrenheit, the best work is performed with a relative humidity of about 75%. In other words, neither the dry nor the wet days are the best. The summer curve is the most complex of the three. It rises first to a maximum at 60 or 65%, then falls, and once more rises to a higher maximum. The first maximum seems to be due to humidity, the second to temperature. A hot damp day is unquestionably debilitating. The majority of the dampest days in summer, however, are comparatively cool, for they accompany storms. The coolness counterbalances the humidity, and people's efficiency increases.

Starting point is 03:48:06 Hence we disagree with the right-hand maximum and conclude that with an average temperature of 65 degrees to 70 degrees, a relative humidity of about 60. is desirable. The most unmistakable feature of the curves as a whole is that they show a diminution of work in very dry weather. This presumably has a bearing on a low level of the curve of energy in winter, and that season the air in our houses ought to have a humidity of 60 or 65%, but most of the time the figure is only 20 or 30.

Starting point is 03:48:39 On very cold days the percentage is still lower. For instance, if the outside air has a temperature of, of 14 degrees Fahrenheit, minus 10 degrees Celsius, and it contains all the moisture it can hold, which is usually not the case. Its relative humidity, when it is warmed to 70 degrees Fahrenheit, will be only 12%. Even on days when the outside humidity rises to 100%, and the temperature is 40 degrees, the air in an ordinary steam-heated house has a relative humidity of only 35%, which is far below the optimum. Apparently, this extreme average, is debilitating. It probably dries up the mucus membranes in such a way as to increase

Starting point is 03:49:20 acidactability to colds. In this way, it may be an important factor in causing February and March to have the highest death rate of the year. There has been a good deal of discussion as to the actual importance of atmospheric humidity and no small amount of disagreement. We shall return to the matter later when we study health. While the effects of light, of closed houses and of excessive dryness explain part of the fluctuation of the curve of work. They have little bearing on any season except the winter. Another matter which may be suggested in this connection is vacations. These, like many other conditions of human life, are largely seasonal. Do people work fast in the fall because they have been rested by vacations? In professional occupations

Starting point is 03:50:08 and business, this certainly seems to be the case, but not among factory operatives. As a rule, such people do not take summer vacations, they usually stop work at regular intervals, or else after Christmas when many factories shut down or work on part-time for a few days to prepare for the new year. The form of our main curve, however, shows that neither at this time nor in summer do vacations produce any appreciable stimulating results. If they were the cause of fast work, the curve ought to be the highest within a few weeks after the people returned to work, but this is not the case. During the vacation period of July and August, the amount of work is moderately low,

Starting point is 03:50:48 and in early January, after the Christmas break, very low. At the end of August it begins to increase, and increase steadily for two and a half months. The maximum in November is so long after the vacation period that it can hardly have anything to do with it. What has just been said has an important practical application. There is a common idea that people need vacations in summer. Of course there are strong arguments for this, since pleasant recreation is then possible out of doors. Nevertheless, the need is apparently greater in winter than in summer.

Starting point is 03:51:25 To make this, it is probably wise that work should be liked during the winter. Already, as everyone knows, many factories run on part-time during the first few weeks of the year, and now we see that there are strong physical reasons for this. Another important suggestion afforded by our curves is this If the operatives of a factory or people engaged in any other kind of work Are to be speeded up The time to do it is when nature lands her aid To speed up at the end of January is analogous to taking a tired horse

Starting point is 03:51:58 And expecting him to win a race Later in the year however during the spring especially in May People may apparently be pushed to the limit and will not suffer because their energies are naturally increasing. This is still more of their case in October and early November. After the middle of November, pressure may produce important results, as we see at Christmas. Nevertheless, the chances are that, if continued, it will produce undue exhaustion, followed by a serious reaction. Possibly the nervousness of Americans is due partially to the fact that although we relax somewhat in summer,

Starting point is 03:52:34 we keep ourselves at higher pressure through the winter when the need of relaxation is graced. Turning now to temperature, we see that in figure 1, page 84, the lower curve showing the march of temperature through the year, and the Connecticut curve, just above it, are similar in many ways, both of low and midwinter. From February onwards they rise together until about the middle of June. Then the efficiency curve falls while the other goes on rising, a condition which fully accords with ordinary experience. The fall of the efficiency curve begins when the average temperature has risen to about 68 degrees.

Starting point is 03:53:14 When the temperature stops rising, the work stops falling, and then remains nearly steady through July. At the end of July, the mean temperature has fallen to about 71 degrees. During the succeeding period of favorable temperature, the two curves disagree, for the amount of work goes up while the temperature falls. the average temperature falls below 48 degrees, however, and begins apparently to be unfavorable to physical exertion, the curve of work turns downward. Thereafter, if we emit the Christmas hump and use the dotted line, the temperature and the amount of work declined together until they reach

Starting point is 03:53:49 the lowest point in January. It is worthwhile once more to call attention to the somewhat surprising fat that in southern New England, contrary to our ordinary opinion, low temperature seems to be much more injurious than high. This by no means indicates that high temperature is favorable. Let us consider the effect of the high temperatures while the four successive summers shown in Figure 1, page 84. Figure 5 displayed on the following page, average weekly temperature during the summers of 1910 to 13 in Connecticut. Compare the summer dip in the Connecticut curve, that is, the area below the horizontal lines, with the heavily shaded areas of Figure 5, which shows the average temperature each week during the four summers from 1910 to 1913.

Starting point is 03:54:36 The black portions indicate weeks having an average temperature night and day of over 73 degrees. The size and distribution of these periods of extreme heat are in close correspondence with the amounts by which the curves of figure 1 dropped below the horizontal lines during the summers. This is illustrated in the following little table. The line marked deficiency in work indicates the amount by which the efficiency of the officer diminished because of the hot weather, that is, the area below the horizontal lines in figure 1. The year when the diminution was greatest is reckoned as 100, and the others in corresponding ratios. The other numbers show the area of the heavy black shading in figure 5 and represent the intensity and duration of the hot weather.

Starting point is 03:55:23 Here too, the year of maximum heat is represented by 100, and the others by proportional values. A small table displayed on the page comparing the year to deficiency in work and severity of heat. In each case, 1911 stands highest, 1910 next, and then 1912 and 1913. In 1911 the heat not only was extreme but lasted long, three weeks at one time and two and another. The death rate for July in 1911 in Massachusetts was 50% greater than in the preceding June. In 1910 the hot weather was not so severe. It lasted four weeks instead of five and was divided into three parts instead of two.

Starting point is 03:56:05 In 1912 the number of hot weeks was the same as in 1910. One was extremely hot, but the rest were not bad. Wherever they did not come together and the last was separated from the others by three cool weeks during which people had time to recover, which is not the case in 1910. Finally, 1913 was a very mild year with only two extreme weeks which was separated by three moderate weeks. An examination of figure 5 makes it clear that only the extreme weeks are harmful. Thus 1911 was a truly terrible summer in 1913 a delightful one. Yet during 1911 the temperature remained above 69 degrees for only 8 weeks, while in 1913

Starting point is 03:56:50 it remained above that figure for 12 weeks. Thus it appears that if the average temperature does not rise above about 70 degrees, and if the noon temperature rarely exceeds 80 degrees, the physical capacity of European races in the United States does not suffer any serious diminution. A slight further rise, however, only four or five degrees, produces disastrous consequences. A single week of such weather does no great harm, but when several weeks come together, people rapidly become weakened. The weakening is greater than appears in our diagrams.

Starting point is 03:57:25 For doing hot spells, many of the operatives, particularly the girls, stop, and work entirely or stay at home in the afternoon. Those who remain are the stronger ones, and naturally their weight is so higher than that general average. Moreover, in 1911, it was so intense that the factory was shut down for two or three days. Thus, the allowance is made for these facts, the difference which a few degrees make between two summers, such as 1911 and 1913, becomes even more pronounced. The full effect of a hot summer, especially when it is very damp may be gauged by the death rate in Japan. Page 95. September is there 18% worse than the average, instead of 3% better as in New York. The relation between the temperature and the amount

Starting point is 03:58:12 of work in winter during the four years under discussion is not so pronounced as in summer, but can easily be detected. The summer of 1911 was followed, as frequently happens, by an uncommonly cold winter. The reason for both is the same. Usually hot weather in New England is commonly due to the movement of heated air from the interior toward the coast, particularly from the southwest to the northeast. Cold winters are due to a similar transportation of air from the interior, this time from the northwest. The interior of a continent, as is well known, cools off very rapidly in winter and becomes hot rapidly in summer. When these conditions are carried from the interior to the coasts, they bring to New England what climatologists call in Constantinator climate instead of the more maritime climate which otherwise prevails.

Starting point is 03:59:02 The effect of the cold winter of 1911 to 1912 can easily be seen in the curve for 1912 in figure 1, page 84. That year the average temperature where the factory's relocated was 19.0 degrees for the first five weeks compared with an average of 32.7 degrees for the three other years whose curves are given. For the next five weeks the temperature was 24.4 degrees, compared with 35.3 degrees. The effect of this is seen in the low position of the 1912 curve of work far into the spring. The fact that the energy of the operatives remained low after the temperature began to rise suggests that the effect of extreme conditions may last long after more normal conditions begin to prevail. The same thing suggested by the fact that after the summer of 1911, the curve of work does not rise so high in November as in the preceding May.

Starting point is 03:59:54 During each of the other three years, the November maximum is higher than its predecessor. Although a single winter and a single summer are not enough to prove that the effect of extreme conditions does not persist for many months. They suggest that a long-stay in an adverse climate may produce results which last for years. In spite of a previous statement, it appears a plan of escaping from positive extreme heat by taking summer vacations in the mountains where at the seaside is wise. Equally wise is a growing habit of getting away from this severe cold for a while in winter. The only trouble is that those who most need such a change are really the ones who get it.

Starting point is 04:00:35 If people could spend the summer on the main coast, the winter in Georgia, and the rest of the year in New York, they ought to be able to do the best kind of work at all seasons almost without the necessity of a vacation. Vicka Zixer displayed on the previous page affected the days of the week on peace workers. The effect of temperature may be shown in more ways than have yet been presented. Let us determine how fires people work on days having various temperatures, no matter in what month they occur.

Starting point is 04:01:07 The very cold days, of course, all come in winter, but may be in December, January or February. The very hot days come anywhere from May to September, while days with a temperature of about 50 degrees occur in almost every month of the year. The method can be illustrated by taking all the Mondays, all the Tuesdays, the Wednesdays and so forth, and averaging the work of each day of the week. This has been done for 230 people. The results are shown in figure 6, which is inserted to show exactly how our results are obtained and how necessary it is to have a large number of people. We are striving to separate the effects of one single condition from those of a vast number. We start with the wages of individuals which vary from day to day

Starting point is 04:01:54 for hundreds of reasons wholly unconnected with the day of the week or the weather. The variations are so great that even if a man is influenced by the approach of payday for example, we should probably not be able to detect if we merely looked at these wages for a month or two. Therefore we average all the people of a department together

Starting point is 04:02:13 and obtain results such as appear in figure 7. This shows the actual wages in percentages of the maximum, which were earned by 170 people divided into five departments during five weeks in January and February 1913. There's little uniformity in these different lines, where one goes up, the other goes down. Yet closer examination shows that in at least four or out of the five departments, the wages during the last two weeks were a little larger than during the earlier weeks. The variations of the different curves are in part due to the persistence of

Starting point is 04:02:48 individual vagaries which have not yet been averaged out, and in part to conditions affecting whole departments. For example, a foreman is cross one day and good nature the next. A belt breaks into lay's work, or as some of the operatives converse so much that their work suffers appreciably. If a number of departments are ravaged together, these accidents, as well as those which pertain to individuals, disappear, but not until the great many people are considered. Figure 7 is displayed on the previous page, variations in daily wages, five departments, 170 people, and New Britain, Connecticut.

Starting point is 04:03:27 To find the effect of the days of the week, we take data such as are illustrated in figure 7, select all the Mondays, Tuesdays and so forth, and average each day. This gives a curve of figure 6. Here we begin to detect a certain degree of uniformity, although the accident's peculiarities of each department, are still in evidence.

Starting point is 04:03:48 On the whole, however, the curves are higher at the end of the week than at the beginning, all to be sure are irregular, and the two lower, not counting the heavy line, slope in the opposite direction to the rest. The fact that the remaining five slope in the same direction shows, however, that these different people in different factories and during different years were subject to a common influence. Finally, we average all the departmental curves, giving each a weight proportional. to the number of operatives.

Starting point is 04:04:18 Thus we obtain the heavy lower line of figure six. This is still abricular, for although 230 people are included, all influences older than that of the days of the week are not yet eliminated. Nevertheless, the wage is clearly increased toward the end of the week. If the operatives were paid by the day instead of off by the piece, this would probably not be the case. They would work slowly at the end of the week by reason of being tired. With the peace workers on the contrary are the considerations so dominant.

Starting point is 04:04:49 If they work and travel slowly on Monday, they can make it up tomorrow. On Tuesday they can be slow and make it up on Wednesday, but a few who fell behind on Monday are beginning to work harder. So it grows from day to day until on Friday, and especially Saturday, many feel that their earnings for the week are insufficient and isn't to make an extra effort. In some cases this may not be true, as in the curve next above the average curve. Yet it remains a general truth.

Starting point is 04:05:18 And a lower curve of figure six is a concrete expression on the fact that in the factory under discussion there is a difference of at least 2% between Monday and Saturday. Figure 8 is displayed on the following page, human activity and mean temperature. Possibly the real difference is greater and is obscured by the circumstances. In the scar factories of Florida,

Starting point is 04:05:41 it rises to a far greater value, For the Cubans are much disinclined to work after holiday. Not only are about 10% of the operatives absent on Mondays, but those who are present come so late were so indisposed to work that they accomplish only about 80% as much work as on other days. This is so important a matter that allowance for it has been made in computations where individual days rather than weeks are concerned. The figures for each day of the week for 780 men at Tempah are as follows.

Starting point is 04:06:13 Monday, 81.9%. Tuesday, 98.7%. Wednesday, 99.8%. Thursday, 100%. Friday, 98.3%. And Saturday, 97.9%. The other days have reckoned as of equal weight, but the figures for Monday may have increased in the ratio of 82 to 100. By the employment of a method similar to that used for the days of the week, we obtain the curve shown in figure rate.

Starting point is 04:06:44 These are based on varying numbers of people. From 1 to over 700, it all showed the same general character. With the exception of G&H, which are distinctly the least reliable, the physical group all reach a maxima at a temperature between 59 degrees and 65 degrees. Even the two less reliable curves reach their maxima within the next 4 degrees. All the curves decline at low temperatures, that is, on the left and also at high. The irregularities at the extreme limits are largely due to the fact that there the number of days are so small that exact results cannot be hoped for.

Starting point is 04:07:21 Figure 8, with the brief statements which accompany the respective curves, tells the whole story so plainly that it scarcely seems worthwhile to amplify it. Several points, however, may well be emphasized. For instance, below a certain temperature, which varies from the curve to curve, a further reduction does not seem to reduce much effect. people apparently become somewhat hardened, or else the conditions within the warmed houses did not change much in spite of a change in the outside air. Another noticeable thing is that the curve of girls has greater amplitude

Starting point is 04:07:53 than that for men in the same region. Part of this is due to the inclusion of the group of Italians already referred to who engaged in drawing hot brass and hence are benefited by the coldest kind of weather. Even if they were omitted, however, the girls' curve would still vary more than that of the men. This seems to indicate that either because they're sex or because of their age, girls are more sensitive than men. Another point brought out by the curves is that as we

Starting point is 04:08:22 go through the more southerly climbs, the optimum temperature of the human race becomes higher. It is important to note, however, that the variation in the optimum is slight compared with the variation in the main temperature of the places in question. For instance, in Connecticut, The optimum seems to be about 60 degrees for people of North European stock. This is about 10 degrees higher than the main temperature for the year as a whole. In Florida, on the other hand, the optimum for Cubans is about 65 degrees, which is 5 degrees lower than the mean temperature for the year at Tampa. In other words, with a difference of 20 degrees in the main annual temperature,

Starting point is 04:09:02 and with a distinctly northern race compared with the southern, we find that the optimum differs only about 5 degrees Fahrenheit. This seems to mean that for the entire human race, the optimum temperature probably does not vary more than 10 or 15 degrees. We have not yet pointed out all the important matters suggested by the curves of figure 8. Above the optimum, the curves in general begin to decline quite rapidly, but then cease to do so, and at high temperatures are not so low as would be expected. This is largely because in hot weather, many operatives, especially the girls and the Cubans, do not feel like we're not work, and so stay away from the factories. Those who come in spite of the heat are the strongest

Starting point is 04:09:47 and most efficient. Naturally, their average wages are higher than those the ones who stay away, and hence the general level of our curves is too high in the portions based on the hottest weather. The mental curve, however, falls off very rapidly at high temperatures. This is because the students are obliged to be present on hot days, just as on others. They must resolve. whether they wish or not, hence their curve is more reliable than the others. In this connection, some experiments carried on, by the New York State Commission on ventilation are of interest. In an attempted term in the most favorable conditions of ventilation,

Starting point is 04:10:25 the Commission places several groups of persons in rooms, where the temperature and humidity were under exact control and measured their strength, mental activity, food consumption and other conditions. The experiments last six or eight hours a day, and each set of subjects was tested. for several weeks. Three temperatures were used, namely 68 degrees, 75 degrees and 85 degrees. No appreciable effect upon strength could be detected, nor upon mental activity and various other functions. This is probably because the experiments were not sufficiently prolonged.

Starting point is 04:10:59 That is, the subjects were in the experimental rooms, only a third or a quarter of each day, and hence their condition did not have time to change appreciably. Although the subjects did not lose an actual strength, however, their inclination to work declined at high temperatures, even within six or eight hours. Thus far, we have been dealing with large bodies of people. It's peculiarly important to find that no matter how small the number, the same relation to temperature is discernible. One of the curves in figure eight shows the speed and accuracy of three children who wrote upon

Starting point is 04:11:35 the typotter a few stanzas from the fairy queen, or a page from George Elliott-Daly for a year, and weekly for another year. The records were kindly placed in my disposal by Professor J. McKay-Katel. I have corrected them for the effect of practice, and have combined speed and accuracy in such a way that each has the same weight. At one period for some unknown cause, the efficiency of the children declined greatly for two months or more. If this were eliminated, their maximum would come to a lower temperature than now appears, probably not much above 60 degrees. In the curves of individuals, we are fortunate at having careful tests made by two psychologists, Lehman and Peterson and Kobanagan.

Starting point is 04:12:19 They tested their own strength daily with a dynamometer and their curves, copied directly from their monographs, and before us. One is uncommon regular with a maximum at 64 degrees, the other less regular has its maximum at 59 degrees. The agreement of Danish curves based on single individuals in New England curves based on hundreds is highly important. The last thing to be considered in figure eight is the mental curve at the bottom. It is based on so large a number of people and is so regular that its general reliability seems great, although I think that future studies may show the optimum to be a few degrees higher than is here indicated. It agrees with the results of Lehman and Peterson.

Starting point is 04:13:03 Furthermore, from general observation, we are most of us aware that we are mentally more active and comparatively cool weather. Perhaps spring fever is a mental state far more than a physical. Apparently people do the best mental work on days when the thermometer ranges from freezing to about 50 degrees, that is, when the mean temperature is not far from 40 degrees.

Starting point is 04:13:25 Inasmuch as human progress depends upon a coordination of mental and physical activity, it may be that the greatest total efficiency occurs halfway between mental and physical optima, that is with a mean temperature of about 50 degrees. Curves such as those of figure-rate are not more peculiar to man alone. They are apparently characteristic of all types of living creatures. To begin with plants, many experiments have determined the rate of growth of seedlings at various temperatures.

Starting point is 04:13:54 The commonest method has been to grow different sets of seedlings in large numbers under conditions which are identical except in temperature, and then to measure the average length of the shoots. In all cases growth is slow at low temperatures, increases gradually with higher temperatures, reaches a maximum like that of man, and then falls off quickly. The course of events, however, is not always so regular as here indicated. The curve of wheat, for example, as worked out by McDougall, is given in figure 9. The peculiar double maximum, there is seen, appears in each case where careful tests are made.

Starting point is 04:14:31 It seems to be due to some inherent quality of the plant, and is of special interest in our present study, because we shall soon come upon an allegious case in man. Figure 9 is displayed on the page, growth of wheat at various temperatures after McDougall. When many species are averaged, such irregularities disappear, and we obtain the curve at the bottom of figure 10, which has been prepared by McDougall

Starting point is 04:14:59 on the basis of his own measurements and others given in such works as prefers physiology of plants. Many of the lower plants, such as marine algae, have their optimum and lower temperatures than those here indicated, and the same is probably true of Arctic species. On the other hand, certain low algae which grow in hot springs, must have their optimum at a temperature above that of ordinary plants.

Starting point is 04:15:24 These differences are immaterial. We are now concerned only with the fact that so far as plants have been measured, the response to temperature resembles out of man. Apparently we have to do with a quality which pertains to all kinds of living beings, and is presumably an inherent characteristic of protoplasm. The newest approach to pure protoplasm is found in unicellular organisms whose bodies show only the beginnings of differentiation into parts having separate functions. The infisoria finish a good example.

Starting point is 04:15:56 One of these, Paramosium, has been carefully studied by L.L. Woodruff. was displayed on the page, mean temperature and vital processes in plants, animals and man. Its original purpose was to determine whether it was possible for this organism to keep on reproducing itself without conjugation for any great length of time. Under the conditions of nature, the small motile cells often spontaneously develop a median cell war and ultimately divide into two new individuals, thus reproducing the species. The process, however, does not go on indefinitely, for when two cells come in contact they fuse with one another, and then begin a process of fusion, which, like the other

Starting point is 04:16:40 process, ends into individuals. Thus we have two types of reproduction, asexual and sexual, which apparently give rise to the same kind of paramasia. Woodruff's purpose was to determine whether asexual reproduction can persist indefinitely or whether it leads in time to extinction. He has shown that if the media of nutrition contain a sufficient number of elements, paramusium can reproduce itself indefinitely by the asocial method.

Starting point is 04:17:11 Between May 1st, 1907 and May 14, 1914, he had carried his cultures through 4,417 generations without conjugation. In the spring of 1924, the paramossia were still thriving after about 14,000 asexual generations. In the course of this work, he has found that the rate of salt division is an accurate test of the conditions under which protoplasm exists. For example, when extracts from nephritic kidneys or certain other disease organs are added to the nutrient solution, even though they are present in such small quantities that

Starting point is 04:17:49 they cannot be detected by chemical analysis. They make their presence evident by a falling off in the rate of fission. One of Woodruff's most important lines of work has been to test the relation of his infusoria to temperature. From many experiments, he finds that their activity corresponds closely to Van't Hoff's law of chemical activity. According to this well-established law, chemical reactions of most kinds at ordinary temperatures become nearly three times as active with every rise of 10 degrees Celsius. Even in in organic chemical reactions, however, and far more in those of the living cell, there is a distinct limit where the rule breaks down. This limit forms the optimum of the species.

Starting point is 04:18:33 At higher temperatures, the degree of activity declines, and finally death ensues. On the basis of these conclusions, Woodruff's data permit us to draw the second curve from the bottom in figure 10. The next higher curve shows the amount of oxygen absorbed by the common crayfish in various temperatures. The most extensive work on this subject appears to be done by, run now. The faxio given are taken from the summary by Poutur in his Verklacend physiology. The amount of oxygen absorbed by an animal is an excellent measure of its physical activity, where it's supplemented by measurements of the amount of carbon dioxide given off, and of the speed with which certain other metabolic or catabolic processes take place.

Starting point is 04:19:18 It gives a true picture of the animal's general condition. Apparently, these various processes follow Vance-Hoss law, just as do the growth of plants and the silver division of the infusoria. The optimum in the three cases does not vary greatly, that of plants being about 86 degrees, for paramoseum, 83 degrees, and for the crayfish, 74 degrees Fahrenheit. Physiologists are not yet fully agreed as to the cause of the phenomena shown in these curves, although there is little doubt as to the general facts that they imply. One hypothesis may be briefly stated, according According to Puto's summary, the most probable explanation is that activity goes on increasing

Starting point is 04:20:00 according to the ordinary chemical law until it becomes so great that the organism is not capable of exorning the necessary oxygen. That is, at a low temperature, the creature easily gets what oxygen it needs and gives it out again in the form of carbon dioxide or of other oxidized products which remove the waste substances from the body. As the temperature rises, the normal increase in chemical activity takes place. The animal is still able to get rid of all its waste products, and thus its life processes are strengthened.

Starting point is 04:20:33 With a further rise of temperature, a chart sets in. The chemical process is which breaks down the tissues of the body become still more active, but the supply of waste products to be eliminated by oxidation becomes so great that they cannot all be removed. This is because, in every organism, there is a distinct limit to the amount of oxygen which the creature can mechanically convey to different portions within a specified time. If the supply of oxygen is not sufficient to oxidize all the waste products, some of these will remain in the system.

Starting point is 04:21:05 They act as poisons. Their first effect is to diminish the organism's activity. If they accumulate to too great an extent, death ensues. The discussion of this hypothesis must be left to the physiologists. members aside whether the hypothesis which explains the curves of cold-blooded animals and plants is also applicable to warm blooded animals. There can be little doubt, however, that variations in the rate of which metabolism takes place in the human body play a part in the variations in efficiency which we are here studying. The researchers of Thompson illustrated the way in which we are beginning to discover the truth. In Manchester, England, from April to July 1910, and again in March 1913, he measured the percentage of CO2 given off in the breadth of four individuals under different conditions of temperature, humidity and pressure.

Starting point is 04:21:58 From his figures, given in the Manchester memoirs, I have compiled the following tables. A table displayed on the page. 1. Percentage of CO2 exiled by 4 persons under different conditions of temperature. 2. Percentage of CO2 excelled by 4 persons under different conditions of humidity. The interpretation of these tables is difficult, and I can merely offer a suggestion. An increase in the proportion of CO2 excelled from the lungs obviously indicates an acceleration of the metabolic processes which break down and consume the bodily tissues. This liberates energy which may manifest itself in at least three ways and possibly more.

Starting point is 04:22:38 It may give rise to heat, which is used to maintain the body at the normal temperature. It may be used to accomplish physical and mental work, and it may cause an excess of heat which gives rise to further metabolism of a harmful nature. In the first part of the table, the percentage of CO2 is comparatively high at the lowest temperature, recorded by Thompson. The degree decrease, with only slight irregularity, till the thermometer reaches 60 degrees Fahrenheit. This is close to the temperature, which will be of far as far as. found to be the optimum.

Starting point is 04:23:10 Below that point, the increased metabolism is probably needed to keep the body warm. At higher temperatures, increased production of CO2 is again apparent. This perhaps means that too much chemical activity is taking place, and that toxic substances are accumulating in the way suggested by putter. At the optimum, according to this interpretation, the body does not have to use an undue portion of its strengths in keeping warm, nor is it injured by two great stimulation. Thus it is in the best condition for work. The second part of the table shows that in the driest weather which England enjoys, metabolism

Starting point is 04:23:48 is more active than in wet weather. Perhaps part of this is due to the fact that in dry air the body loses water and is cooled by evaporation and ends requires more heat than in wet air of similar temperature. There is more to the matter than this, however, but further measurements are needed before and adequate explanation can be offered. All that can be done here is to point out the fact that, in man, as in the lower organisms, activity varies according to temperature. This is evident in figure 10, where the dotted upper line is the curve of mental activity,

Starting point is 04:24:23 while the accompanying solid line shows conditions if all accidental irregularities could be removed. The third line, in the same way, represents the physical activity of both men and women in Connecticut. I have not used the figures from the South because they're not quite so reliable as those from Connecticut. Finally, the second line from the top chose physical and mental activity combined, each being given the same weight. It may be taken as representing man's actual productive activity in the things that make for a high civilization. The resemblance of the human curves to those lower organisms is obvious. In general, the lower types of life or the lower forms of activity seem to be. to reach their optimum at higher temperatures than do the more advanced types and the more lofty functions such as mentality.

Starting point is 04:25:12 The whole trend of biological thought is toward the conclusion that the same laws apply to all forms of life. They differ in application, but not in principle. The law of optimum temperature apparently controls the phenomenon of life from the lowest activities of protoplasm to the highest activities of human intellect. End of Section 5 Section 6 of Civilization and Climate by Osworth Huntington

Starting point is 04:25:46 This is a Librevox according or Libravox Accordings in the public domain For more information or volunteer please visit Librox.org Record by Leon Harvey Chapter 6 Work and Weather The effect of a given climate

Starting point is 04:26:02 depends on two primary factors One is the character of the seasons as expressed in averages such as are furnished by our weather bureaus. The other is the changes from day to day, that is, the weather. The boy quoted by Mark Twain was nearly right when he defined the difference between weather and climate as being that climate lasts all the time

Starting point is 04:26:24 and weather only a few days. Two climates may be almost identical in their seasonal averages and yet differ enormously in their effect on life, because in one, the change from day to day is scarcely noticeable while in the other there are all sorts of rapid variations. The old Irish woman who was driving her peaks to market, in a pouring rain, did not realize it, but she gave expression to a truth of the greatest importance. When a friend pitied her for being out in such weather, and she replied,

Starting point is 04:26:53 Indeed, it's bad, but sure it's thankful I am to have any kind of weather. The change from day to day to another depend largely upon our ordinary cyclonic storms. In such storms, the bromometer goes down and then up. The wind changes in direction and velocity. The air becomes humid, clouds gather, rain usually falls, and then clear skies and dry air prevail. The temperature also changes, often rising before a storm and falling afterward. Although the exact sequence depends on the location of a region in respect to the ocean and to the center of the storm, the daily range of temperature also varies.

Starting point is 04:27:33 For a dump in clouded weather, the nights do not become so cool, nor the day is so warm as when the air is clear. To understand the influence of the weather, all these conditions must be investigated. Most of them, however, appear to be of relatively slight importance when considered by themselves. For instance, Lehman and Peterson could find no appreciable effect of the pressure of the atmosphere, except when low pressure prevails a long time. The decrease in efficiency at such times, however, is a very much. probably do more to prolonged cleverness than its attendant circumstances than to the barometric conditions. My own work leads to the same result. The curves of efficiency compared with pressure

Starting point is 04:28:16 are so contradictory that it does not seem worthwhile to publish them. The same is true of the range of temperature from day to night, and of the direction and force of the winds. I have no doubt that all these matters are important, and that some day their effect will be worked out. In general, however, their influence is exerted indirectly through changes in temperature and humidity. In hot weather, a great range from day to night is unquestionably highly favorable, but at ordinary temperatures it seems to make no special difference, except through its effect upon the mean temperature. As to the winds, Dexter and his book on weather influences shows that they produce a marked effect upon the nerves,

Starting point is 04:29:01 as is indicated by the unruilliness of school children in Denver, when high south winds prevail. Part of this is doubtless due directly to the wind, but the unseasonably high temperature and extreme dryness which accompany it are probably more important. Yet we all conscious of the effect of a steady high wind. Some people are stimulated.

Starting point is 04:29:23 I've seen a small boy who was usually very quiet climbed to the top of a tall tree when a violent wind came up and swing in the branches, seeing in the toby's voice. For a while, such stimulation is probably beneficial, but if continued day after day, it makes people excitable and cross. A striking example of the effect of a prolonged wind is seen in eastern Persia in the basin of Cisestan.

Starting point is 04:29:48 During the summer, from June to September, the so-called wind of 120 days blows so violent from the north that in the oasis trees cannot grow except under the lee of high walls. The acrid wild melon, which ripens its beautiful little green and yellow fruit in the desert does not spread its slender branches in all directions after the common fashion of plants. The gales crowd the branches into a sheaf, which points so uniformly in one direction a little to the west of north that it can safely be used as a compass. When Europeans have to endure this wind, they say that it is one of the most trying experience is imaginable. Not only does it render them irritable, but it deadens their

Starting point is 04:30:30 initiative and makes them want to stay idly in the shelter of the house. The natives, although possessed of many good qualities, are inert and inefficient, even in comparison with their fellow Persians who live farther to the north and west. On the whole, we may probably conclude that occasional short-lived gales and frequent light or moderate winds are beneficial, while long periods, either of steady calms or of gales are depressing. Aside from the conditions of weather, there are two whose effects appear plainly when curves are constructed according to the method described above. One is a change of temperature from one day to another, and the other is a character for the day as to clouds and sunshine. In considering changes of temperature from one day to the next, we deal with the mean temperature for each day and not with the extremes.

Starting point is 04:31:24 A change of as much as 15 degrees is rare. Suppose that the thermometer stands at 60 degrees at sunrise, rises to 80 degrees by 2 o'clock of the afternoon, then falls rapidly to 50 degrees at sunset, and to 40 degrees by midnight. Suppose also that the next day the temperature is 40 degrees at sunrise, rises a little above 55 degrees during the day, and falls again to 45 degrees at night. The two days would be very different,

Starting point is 04:31:50 and we should speak of them as being marked by a very great change in temperature, a difference of 40 degrees within 10 hours. Yet the average of the first day would be about 64 degrees, and of the second, 49 degrees, a difference of only 15 degrees in the main temperature. On the basis of this supposition, the reader can estimate the importance of the various degrees of change indicated in figure 11. At the left, the curve showed the average efficiency on days when the temperature is fallen,

Starting point is 04:32:20 in the middle are the days with no change, and at the right are the days characterized by rise. Taking only the two upper curves, those for men and girls in Connecticut factories, the resemblance is striking. When we consider the heterogeneous character of the original materials, the resemblance are still more important. The men's curve is based on 120 men at Bridgeport in 1910 and 1911, and on 180 men, a New Britain in 1911, 1912 and 1913. The girl's curve is based on 196 girls at New Britain in 2011, 1912 and 1913. and on 60 girls at New Haven in 1913 and 1914. Even when the girls and men are working in the same factory, there is no reason, aside from the weather, why their wages should be high on the same day. The chief difference between the two curves is that the one for the girls varies more than that for the men,

Starting point is 04:33:16 and reaches its maximum slightly farther to the right. Apparently here, just as in the case of mean temperature, the girls because of their age or sex are more subject to the influence of the weather than other men, and hence their curve dips deeper. Let us now interpret the upper curves, beginning at the middle. There they fall to the lowest level. This means that when the temperature of today is the same as that of yesterday, people work more slowly than after a change, no matter whether the change is upward or downward. A variable climate is therefore highly desirable if people are to be efficient.

Starting point is 04:33:52 Perhaps the most surprising feature is at the lowest point of the physical curve and a depression of the mental curve, C, come not at 0 degrees, but at minus 1 degrees. The 0 point is low, lower than any point of the physical curves except minus 1 degrees. Hence our conclusion as to the injuries effect of uniform temperature is justified, but that is not explaining the curious dip at minus 1 degrees. Figure 11 is displayed on the page, human activity and change of mean temperature from day to day. The repetition of the same phenomenon in each of the three upper curves, and a similar occurrence at minus 2 degrees and minus 3 degrees, respectively in the two curves of the winter, in Florida strongly suggests that we are confronted by a peculiarity which pertains to man as a species, in the same way that a double optimum of mean temperature pertains to wit as shown in figure 9. Possibly a slight fall in temperature causes people to shiver, as it were, and only when the fall is slightly larger is a circulation of the blood so stimulated as to increase the activity of the various organs.

Starting point is 04:34:59 In the south, it may be that people's blood is more sluggish than in the north, so that the reaction due to cooler weather does not follow quite so soon, and hence the period of shivering is not over until the fall in main temperature amounts to more than about 3 degrees. I do not assert that this is so, but it is the only explanation that comes to mind. To go on with our interpretation of the physical curves, a slight rise of temperature seems to be favourable, but beyond that the favourable effects of increased heat, which are strong and cold weather, are neutralised by the unfavorable effects in warm weather. In fact, our personal experience tells us that even when the heat is not extreme, a sudden rise may make us uncomfortable and lazy, as often occurs in the spring. In spite of this, however, arises in general better than uniformity.

Starting point is 04:35:51 When the temperature falls, on the other hand, a distinct stimulus is received, provided the fall amounts to as much as four degrees. The best effects are seen when a fall of from 6 degrees to 9 degrees with girls, and of 7 degrees to 11 degrees with men. Here again the implication is that men are on the whole less sensitive than girls. An extreme drop is not so favorable as one of the more moderate dimensions, especially for the girls. Taking the physical curves as a whole, the greatest amount of energy would be expected in climates where the main temperature first rises 2 degrees or 3 degrees a day for a few days

Starting point is 04:36:28 and then drops 4 degrees to 8 degrees a day. If the changes are greater than this, the effect is still stimulating, but not so beneficial as under the more moderate conditions. If there is practically no change, on the contrary, the level of efficiency lies with the low central depressions of our curves, and is less than under either of the other conditions. Mental work resembles physical work, but with interesting differences. When the temperature falls greatly, mental work seems to suffer more than physical, and declines as much as when there is no change.

Starting point is 04:37:06 It receives a little stimulus from a slight warming of the air, but appears to be at least, adversely affected when the air becomes warm rapidly. This last statement, however, must be qualified. The physical curves are based on the complete year, and the conditions of summer have an opportunity to balance those of winter. The results show the net effect for all seasons combined. The mental curves, on the other hand, do not include the summer vacation, which lasts from the middle of June to the 1st of September at West Point, and from the middle of May to the 1st October at Annapolis. With this were included, the effect of a pronounced lowering of the temperature would be more noticeable than at present, for such a lowering is naturally more stimulating in July than in January.

Starting point is 04:37:52 In another respect also, the curve of mental efficiency needs modification. It is based on figures from two climatic provinces, namely southern New York and Maryland. The great decline at times, when the temperature rises rapidly, is due largely to conditions in Maryland, where the hot days of the spring are much more debilitating than in the very in New York. The students belong to a race which has never learned to endure a sudden heat. Hence they feel it strongly. If allows is made for the two conditions just mentioned, the mental curve will approach much more closely to the physical. A drop of temperature amounted to 8 degrees or more will appear more stimulating than it now seems to be their case, and a rapid

Starting point is 04:38:31 rise will not seem so harmful. Hence the general conclusion for both physical and mental activity will be essentially the same. It may be summed up thus. Taking the year as a whole, uniformity of temperature causes low energy. A slight rise is beneficial, but a further rise is of no particular value. The beginning of a fall of temperature is harmful, when the fall becomes little larger, it is much more stimulating than a rise. When it becomes extreme, however, its beneficial qualities begin to decline. This conclusion must, of course, be appropriately modified according to the season.

Starting point is 04:39:10 A cold wave in January is very different from one in July. It occurs we have given January and July an opportunity to neutralise one another. They have not done so. This means, after all, allowances have been made for the seasons, the total effect of cold waves is decidedly beneficial, and the warm waves slightly slow. Frequent changes, therefore, are highly desirable. Let us pass on now to the Florida curves.

Starting point is 04:39:36 Here we find a curious difference between summer and winter, which is not easy to understand. Let us leave that for a moment, however, and consider only the two winter curves. Their general resemblance is marked. The differences at the extremities are not important because a number of days they are concerned is very small. It must be remembered that the two curves are from independent and rival factories.

Starting point is 04:39:58 The position of any particular point in either curve depends upon a number of days scattered irregularly through the months from October to March. Aside from a genuine effect of climate, there seems to be no possible way in which 400 men in one factory in 19th could be made to work so that their curve would be the same as that of 380 men in another factory in the two years 1912 to 1913. Here as in Connecticut, West Point and Annapolis, we are apparently dealing with a peculiar quality which is inherited in the human species. One of the Florida curves, E, is low at zero degrees, while the other is medium. This means that days when there is no change of temperature are not particularly favourable.

Starting point is 04:40:42 favourable. At plus 2 degrees to plus 4 degrees however both are fairly high which indicates that a moderate rise of temperature is favourable. A further rise seems to be harmful. The effect of a slight fall of the thermometer has already been discussed. A further fall is beneficial. The most notable thing about curves D and E is a maximum from minus 4 degrees to minus 7 degrees. It comes at about the same place as a mental maximum and is similar to the Connecticut maximum except that the people in the far south do not seem to be able to stand such extreme changes as to those in the north. In fact, it seems most significant that the Connecticut men, who are the strongest of our various groups, are most

Starting point is 04:41:28 stimulated by a strong change of temperature. The Connecticut girls come next, but, being less sturdy, they do not profit quite so much by rigorous conditions. The mental curve is largely determined by Anapolis and as the climate there is less severe than in Connecticut the students seem to feel more keenly the effect of extreme changes although they are stimulated by those of moderate dimensions the same is still more true with the people of Florida in winter finally during the summer the Floridians are stimulated by a slight drop of temperature provided it is not enough to make them feel chilly but enough to start their blood in motion a greater drop it

Starting point is 04:42:07 makes them feel cold, while even the slightest rise of temperature in the long monotonous summer is unfavorable. We are ready now to sum up our results. The outstanding point is our changes of temperature, provided they are not too great, are more stimulating than a uniformity, while a fall is more stimulating than a rise in the latitudes now out of consideration. The effect of changes depends largely upon the degree to which people are renewed to them. When they are weakened by a long hot period like that of the Florida summer, even a slight cooling off the air brings relief in activity, provided is not go so far as to make people feel chilly. When the same Floridians become wanton to the somewhat sterner, albeit mild air of the winter,

Starting point is 04:42:53 the first effect of a lowering of the temperature may be to make them shiver, but soon they are stimulated and work fast. They are not so tough, however, as to be able to get benefit from the occasional days when really strong cold waves sweep down upon them. On the other hand, a rising temperature stimulates them, unless it is of considerable severity. Farther north the same applies except that, being tougher, the people are more benefited by strong changes. Judging by the difference between summer and winter and Florida, it looks as if a little hardening would cause even the Cubans to respond favourably to changes, at least as severe as those in

Starting point is 04:43:31 Maryland, thus making left-hand part of their curve like the sea in figure 11. Taking it all in all, the one thing that stands out pre-eminently is that a fall from 4 degrees to 7 degrees is everywhere stimulating, provided people are accustomed to it. Man is not the only organism that is benefited by the changes of temperature. Numerous experiments have shown that plants are subject to a similar influence. If a plant is subjected to unduly low or high temperature, its growth is retarded. As the temperature approaches the optimum, the rate of growth increases. When the temperature is maintained steadily, however, not only does the increase cease, but retrogression sets in, and the rate of growth declines.

Starting point is 04:44:15 A moderate change of temperature away from the optimum, and then back again after a few hours checks this decline and keeps the plant at a maximum degree of activity. Thus, conditions where the thermal water swings back and forth on either side of the optimum, are distinctly better than where the optimum is maintained steadily. Thus it seems to be a law of organic life. that variable temperature is better than uniformity. The physiological process by which frequent changes of temperature affect the body is not yet known. The best suggestion seems to be that of Dr. W.B. James.

Starting point is 04:44:52 It is universally recognized that one of the most important of the bodily functions is the circulation of the blood. The more active and unrestricted it is, the more thoroughly is the whole system nourished and purified. Provided does not impose an undue strain on the heart or arteries, anything that stimulates the circulation appears to be helpful. Changes of temperature are a powerful agent to this end. Witness the effect of a bath, either cold or very hot. Few things are more stimulating than a Swedish bath, and a tenant holds two hoses, one with cold water and the other with hot, and plays them alternately upon the patient. A man goes into such a bath with hanging head and dragging feet. He comes out with head erect and a new spring in his walk.

Starting point is 04:45:38 Apparently, frequent changes of the temperature of the air produce much the same effect. No one change produces so pronounced an effect as a Swedish bath by the succession of stimuli due to repeated change throughout the year must be of great importance. Before leaving this subject, let us taste the effect of changes in still another way. Let us see what happens doing an average series. of days, such as make-up or common succession of weather in New England. The ordinary course of events is first a day or two of clear weather, then a day or two of partially cloudy weather,

Starting point is 04:46:12 next a cloudy day with or without rain, and finally another cloudy day during which rain falls. Then the sky clears in preparation of another similar series. On this basis, I have formed the six groups indicated at the top of figure 12. At the left, the efficiency on all clear days which follow clearly or partially cloudy days has been plotted, just as in another diagram we plotted the efficiency on Mondays. Next come the clear days which follow another clear day. If several of these follow an unbroken succession, they'd all include, but a third or fourth clear day is rare. In the next group come the partially cloudy days which follow either a clear or a cloudy day. The great majority follow clear days. A second partially cloudy day is much rarer than a

Starting point is 04:47:01 second clear day and a third is still rarer. The first cloudy day, the fifth column, includes cloudy days which follow either clear or partially cloudy days. Finally, the sixth column includes not only the second cloudy day, but the third and fourth is such a recorded. In general this column represents days when a storm comes to an end, while the one left of it represents the time when a storm first becomes well established. The rest of the diagram to the right of the six column is merely a repetitive, of the part already described. It is inserted to show how an ideal series of storms would repeat itself. Figure 12 discloses some surprising facts. For instance, the first

Starting point is 04:47:44 day is characterized by the slowest work in the two upper curves and by almost the slowest in the third. Figure 12 is displayed on the page the stimulus of storms. Our impression of the stimulus of the bright clear air after a storm received a flat contradiction. It is apparently psychological, not physical. The second clear day makes a better showing than the first. It stands high in two curves and low in only one. The first partially cloudy day is high in one curve and medium in two. The second partially cloudy day is medium in all three. The same is true of the first cloudy day. The last cloudy day is as surprising as the first clear day. In each of the three curves it

Starting point is 04:48:29 stands highest. People work fastest at the end of a storm. In the lower curve of figure 12 the whole matter is summed up in a single line. Here we see that doing an average spell of weather, people are least efficient on the clear days, moderately efficient on the partially cloudy days, on the first cloudy day, and most efficient at the end of the storm. We may tell ourselves that this is unreasonable but when we think it over we are likely to be aware of its truth. Before a storm we may feel depressed, but at the end, when the rain or snow is almost over and the air begins to have the excellent quality which makes us to forget all about it. We bend it to our work

Starting point is 04:49:10 with a steadiness and concentration, which are much less common at other times. Hellpack emphasizes this in his book on the psychological effect of geographical conditions. We fail to appreciate largely because the aesthetic impressions of a beautiful, clear day are felt much more consciously, then are the physiological conditions which throars vigorously into our work. Each storm with its changing skies, faraying humidity, and slow rise a rapid full of temperature is a stimulant. Each raises our efficiency. This ends our survey of the effect of climate upon daily work in the eastern United States. We've considered the influence of the seasons, of mean temperature, of humidity, of winds, of changes of temperature from day to day,

Starting point is 04:49:59 and of the character of each day as relation to storms. We have also seen that although different races, or people under a slightly diverse climatic environments, are at their best at slightly different temperatures. The differences are inconsiderable. The changes of temperature are as valuable to one as to the other. The question now arises whether the climatic effects are really of great importance. In figure 12, the stimulus of the succession of clear and cloudy days amounts to only 1%.

Starting point is 04:50:26 In figure 11 changes a temperature from day-to-day produce a variation of only a little over 2% if we emit the irregular and unreliable extremities of the curves. In figure 4, the maximum effect of humidity appears to be only 3%. In figure 8, however, the differences are greater, for the effect of mean temperature upon the girls in Connecticut is 7%. Finally, in figure 1, the effect of the seasons reaches nearly 9% when four years are averaged, and nearly 15% for individual years. These figures are far from representing the full importance of the various factors.

Starting point is 04:51:07 This will readily appear from a little consideration. In the preceding paragraph, the percentages increase in proportion to two conditions, first the degree to which the influence of a single factor is separated from the influence of all other factors, and second, the length of time during which each factor is able to exert its influence. The smallest figure 1% in figure 12 does not represent any individual factor, unless it be cloudiness. It does not even represent the fluctuations which attend an individual storm, for the days were selected without regard to their position in a cyclonic disturbance, but simply according to their cloudiness.

Starting point is 04:51:46 The variations shown in the curve are due to many factors, including main temperature, changes of temperature, relative humidity, and others of minor importance. As no two of these are necessarily at their maximum at the same time, they neutralize one another. Moreover, a given condition lasts only a day in most cases and has no opportunity to produce any great effect. In the curve of changes of temperature from day to day, which shows the next lighter effect, a single factor is singled out. Its full force can by no means be seen, however, for the humidity often varies in such a way as to neutralize it. Moreover, the effects of especially low or high temperatures may often completely overshadow any stimulus arising from the mere effect of a change.

Starting point is 04:52:33 Furthermore, the effect of changes of temperature rarely continues more than two days. For example, if the thermometer averages 6 degrees lower one day, then on the preceding, it may happen that there will be a further drop before the next day, and there is far more chance that the temperature will rise a little or remain stationary or fall so little that it will not be stimulating. Hence, the effect is rarely cumulative, and the influence of a single day must usually stand by itself. Much the same is true of relative humidity, except that by heating our houses we artificially induce long periods of great aridity. The effects of main temperature, on the other hand, have a greater opportunity to show their full importance,

Starting point is 04:53:16 though they, too, are hampered. Relatively low or high temperatures last many weeks, which makes it possible for the effect of day after day to accumulate. Yet out-ocurs by no means show the full effect, for a cold day with a mean temperature of 30 degrees may come in November at a time when efficiency is still at its highest. It produces its normal effect, but a single, unpropertuous day, or even a week, does not suffice to depress people's vitality

Starting point is 04:53:44 to a degree at all approaching the low limit reached after two months of cold weather. Likewise, a day with the most favorable temperature, not far from 60 degrees, may be sandwiched between very hot days in July or between two cold days in March. Hence people will display little energy on those particular days, and the average efficiency at the optimum temperature will appear corresponding lower than it ought. Finally, the seasons have more opportunity than the individual climatic elements to produce their full effect. Even here, however, the variability of our climate does not allow us to allow us.

Starting point is 04:54:20 any special combination of circumstances to work long unimpeded. Warm waves break the cold periods of winter, and cool waves come in summer. Storms are more active in winter than in summer, and hence their stimulus works towards overcoming the effect of prolonged cold. Moreover, no single season is of great duration, and extreme conditions do not last long enough to produce their full effect. From this we may conclude that the total influence of climate upon energy, is much greater than appears in any one of our curves.

Starting point is 04:54:54 The difficulty of determining the exact proportions of any individual influence may be made clear by an example. We know that man's power to work depends upon food, drink, sleep and clothing. Suppose that while he was still supplied with these in normal quantities, we were to try to measure the effect of each. We should test his strength at stent intervals after he had eaten his meals or after he had had a drink. We should find out how many hours he slept each night and compare that with his work. We should measure his achievements before and after he put on his spring underwear or fall overcoat.

Starting point is 04:55:30 We might get results, but is highly doubtful whether they would be as distinct as those here discussed. We have no difficulty in measuring the effect of food, drink, sleep or clothing, for we can easily vary them to suit the needs of our experiment. With climate, the case is different. We must take it as we find it, and must experiment on people who are constantly subject to its influence. Someday we shall test people first in one climate and then another, but that will be difficult because it takes a considerable time for climate to reduce its full event.

Starting point is 04:56:05 Being obliged to search for the effects of climate without being able to change them in accordance with the needs of our experiment, we are in almost as difficult a case as the experimenter who should desire to determine the effect of the amount and kind of food concerned by a group of individuals, but who had no control over how much they ate. They might allow him to measure what was set before them at each meal and what remained when it was over, but they would eat as much as they liked and when they liked. He would get results, if he did his work carefully, but they would by no means represent the full effect of food. The influence of climate upon men may be likened to that of a driver upon his horse. Some drivers let their horses go as they please, now that a horse may run away, but the average pace is slow.

Starting point is 04:56:58 Such drivers are like an unstimulating climate. Others whip their horses and urge them to the limit all the time. They make rapid progress for a while, but in the end they exhaust their animals. They resemble climates which are always stimulating. In such climates, nervous exhaustion is likely to prevail and insanity becomes common. A third type of drivers first whip their horses to a great speed for a mile or two and then let them walk slowly for another mile or two. They often think that they are accomplishing great things

Starting point is 04:57:28 and they are better off than the two types already mentioned but they still have much to learn. They are like a climate which has a strong contrast of seasons one being favorable and the other are favorable. Still a fourth kind of driver may whip his horse sometimes and sometimes let him walk but what he does chiefly is to hurt the animal gently with the voice, then check him a little with the rain. By alternate urging and checking he conserves the animal's strength, and in the long run can cover more distance and do it more rapidly than any of the others. Such a driver resembles a climate which has enough contrast of seasons to be stimulating but not to create nervous tension,

Starting point is 04:58:07 and which also possesses frequent storms whose function is to furnish the slight urging and checking, which are so valuable in the total effect, although each individual impulse is almost unnoticeable. End of Section 6. Section 7 of Civilization and Climate by Osworth Huntington. This is Libravox According, or Librevox Accordings from the public domain. For more information to a volunteer, please visit Librevox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 7. Health and Atmosphere We have investigated the relation of the weather to human energy.

Starting point is 04:58:52 Let us do the same for health. In a previous chapter, we saw that variations in the death rate in New York and Japan and the gain and weight among tubercular patients exhibit seasonal fluctuations, much like those for workers in factories. As a means of measuring health, deaths are more important than disease for two reasons. First, experience has shown that when several years are averaged together, the death rate is an almost perfect measure of the number and severity of the diseases which afflict a community. Second, the records of disease are very scanty and imperfect.

Starting point is 04:59:25 They have never been tabulated on a large scale for the entire population. Only in rare cases can the records of certain diseases be used as well as those of deaths. Accurate mortality records, on the contrary, have now been kept for many years. The health of practically every community varies in response to the seasons. In the northern United States, most physicians are far busy in February and March than in May and June. In July and August, the demand for their services increases again, especially among children. Then come the best months of the year, especially October, when good health and good spirits abound. Different types of disease, to be sure, display different seasonal adaptations.

Starting point is 05:00:07 Those of the respiratory organs, for example, reach a maximum in winter, or those of the digestive tract are more numerous in summer. Admitting then that both energy and health show marked seasonal variations, our aim is to determine how closely the two sets of variations are in harmony. Part of the answer is illustrated in figure 13. Figure 13 is displayed on the page, seasonal variations in energy and health. The upper line A represents variations in the efficiency of factory workers in Connecticut from January 1910 to December 1914, has already given in figure 1.

Starting point is 05:00:47 The second line, B, is the similar curve of Pittsburgh. The two lower lines illustrate fluctuations in health in Connecticut C and Pennsylvania, D. There are the curves of the death rate inverted so that high parts indicate good conditions or few deaths, and low parts, poor conditions or many deaths. Thus permitting easy comparison with the efficiency curves, it is obvious not only that the two efficiency curves and the two health curves run almost parallel, but that there is also a close parallelism between health and efficiency. Aside from the weather, all possible causes of such parallels seem to be excluded. For epidemics, business disturbances and the like did not occur in such a way as to explain

Starting point is 05:01:31 the similar fluctuations into a diverse phenomena hundreds of miles apart. Note how closely the four curves agree, even in details. Low efficiency during January 1910 is followed by a month or two by very poor health. During the spring, both efficiency and health improve. then comes the summer with a mild tendency toward a drop in all the curves, and the autumn with the main maximum of the year. In 1911, the parallelism of the four curves is again evident, as is the lag of the mortality curve after that of efficiency.

Starting point is 05:02:04 In 1912 and 1913, the sag of all the curves in summer diminishes and disappears. For those years, it will be remembered, had only short periods of really hot weather. The similarity of the four curves, especially in the same, summer would be still more marked where it not for the deaths of children under two years of age have been admitted in the mortality curves. Since many other observations point in the same direction, we conclude that unfavorable weather such as commonly prevails in January has immediate effect in reducing people's vitality and energy.

Starting point is 05:02:38 Hence their work falls off. At the same time they become more susceptible to disease. Accordingly, in due time the number of deaths increases. Actually the greatest mortality lags several weeks after lowest efficiency. It takes time for bacteria to produce infection and for infection to lead to death. The lag is longer in winter when respiratory diseases are the chief enemy than in summer when digestive diseases with their more rapid course are the chief foes. The agreement between health and energy is thus so close that both appear to depend upon essentially

Starting point is 05:03:13 the same fluctuations of the weather. It is especially important to determine the relation of the weather to mental as well as physical health. Hence, peculiar interest attaches to certain studies of mental abnormalities carried on by Norbury. He finds that the emissions to psychiatric hospitals show that mental disorders in their insipitency and recurrence parallel the efficiency curves of Huntington. Maximum in the spring, minimum in the autumn. His curse show that certain maximum of emissions for mental disorders occurs in the following periods.

Starting point is 05:03:45 Civil hospitals on New York State 1916 to 1921 June Norbury Sanatorium and Jacksonville, Illinois 1903 May Massachusetts State Hospital 1922 to 1923 May and June State hospitals Northern United States

Starting point is 05:04:04 1922 to 1923 March After the maximum The diminution in emissions is in all cases very rapid The number of emissions fell to the lowest point at the following periods. New York State Hospitals, September February. Dr. Norbury's Sanatorium, October February. Massachusetts State Hospital, November, February.

Starting point is 05:04:29 State hospitals in the United States, August February. Across the Atlantic, Insanity in London reaches a distinct maximum in May and is low from July to February. Almost identical conditions prevail as to suicide. except that the fall from the high point in June is not so rapid as in the case of insanity, although the maximum is reached earlier, that is, in November and December, instead from July to February. As to the nervous disorders in continental Europe, Ghania states that general paralysis in Paris follows a seasonal course almost identical with that of insanity in London. Now nervous breakdowns, insanity, suicide and paralysis, as normally shows, are all due mainly to the same cause, namely fatigue of the nerves. Such fatigue, he says, is apparently controlled to a large

Starting point is 05:05:20 degree by the seasons, but just as a maximum number of death's lags some weeks are in a month too after the time when the weather produces the lowest efficiency in factories, so the maximum effect of fatigue of the nerves lags still more, and the greatest number of nervous breakdowns may occur three or four months after the period of least efficiency as measured by daily work. The universality with which the bodily functions respond to the seasons may be judged from two other recent investigations. In one case, Hess, has shown that among infants, the phosphates of the blood, which are an essential element for growth, show a pronounced seasonal tide. During the year covered by his observations, the percentage of phosphates in the blood stood at 4.34 milligrams percent during June and July 1921. It may risen higher during the succeeding months, but no records were kept.

Starting point is 05:06:16 In December it had fallen to 3.92, and it marched to 3.58. Presumably it would have fallen still lower, but whenever the phosphates fell below 3.75, the children were treated with ultraviolet light, which effectively increases, not only the phosphates, but also the calcium and probably other important elements of the blood. It's been found by many authorities that the children's disease known as Ricketts follows a seasonal course like that of the phosphates and is connected more or less closely with the amount of ultraviolet light. For our present purposes, however, the important point is that the essential phosphates in children show the same general seasonal variation as the death rate, and as mental breakdown among adults,

Starting point is 05:06:57 the lag being perhaps greater than in the death rate, but less than in mental collapses. Another case of seasonal fluctuations is discussed by Porter of the Harvard Medical School. In cooperation with the Health Department of Boston, monthly records of the weight of several thousands of the younger school children were begun in 1909 and continued until 1919. Among the boys born in 1905, the average increase in weight from month to month during the years 1911 to 1918 was as follows. January to February, gain 0.18 pounds. February to March, gain 0.47 pounds. March to April, gain of 2.2 pounds. April to May, reduction of 0.16 pounds.

Starting point is 05:07:48 May to June, gain of 0.05 pounds. June July, gain of 0.5 pounds. July to August, gain of 0.80 pounds. August to September, gain of 0.93 pounds. September to October, gain 0.96 pounds. November, gain 0.16 pounds. November to December, gain 0.168 pounds. December to January, gain 0.98 pounds.

Starting point is 05:08:21 In interpreting this table, allowance must be made for clothing. It made the children exchange that winter clothes for those which are somewhat lighter. While about the end of September, the opposite change takes place. Allowance must also be made for the long summer vacation with its opportunities for outdoor play which naturally causes the children's weight to increase rapidly. If allowances is made for these two facts, the regularity of the seasonal trend of growth is intensified. From January onwards the children grow slowly. In the spring after the phosphates have reached the minimum, at the very time when grown

Starting point is 05:08:58 people are most subject to mental breakdowns, the children practically cease to grow. Not until the summer vacation begins, do they recover from the effect of the winter. In the summer, the fourfold advantages of freedom from school, favorable weather, much outdoor life and a more varied and healthful diet than at other seasons cause rapid gain and weight. This game seems to be checked somewhat when school begins, but is resumed during the late fall and early winter. In spite of confinement in school, little outdoor play and a diet are literally poor in vitamins and other important elements.

Starting point is 05:09:33 The children gain weight more rapidly in December than in any other month except perhaps at the end of the summer vacation. The chief favoural factor appears to be the climate, the stimulus of which does not disappear until the advent of really cold weather. The sudden decline in the children's rate of gain during January appears to correspond closely with the drop in the efficiency of factory workers at about the same time, by the effect on growth lasts much longer than does the more direct effect upon activity. Among the many other instances of seasonal fluctuations in human health,

Starting point is 05:10:07 one of the most remarkable is illustrated in figure 14. Figure 14 is displayed on the page, seasonal variations of conceptions and death in Japan, 1901 to 1910. The opera line indicates for each month the average daily number of conceptions, which resulted in the birth of living children in Japan during the 10 years from 1901 to 1910. A pronounced maximum in June is followed by a diminution of 46% which culminates in September at the end of the long hot humid summer. Then comes a recovery which is checked but not reversed during the winter and which resumes its course during the delightful spring weather of April, May and June.

Starting point is 05:10:47 The second curve shows you average number of deaths per day. It is almost exactly the reverse the curve of conceptions. In other words, during the months when many people are sick and die, the number of conceptions is either very low or else a large number of conceptions result in miscarriages or still. still births. The most extraordinary feature of Figure 14 is a fact that the curves of conception and mortality cross one another in September. The same fact is illustrated in the lowest curve which indicates as the excess of conceptions over deaths. In June the conceptions which

Starting point is 05:11:22 give rise to living children outnumber the deaths by nearly 2.5 to 1. In September the conceptions are less numerous than the deaths. No seasonal variations in farmwork or social customs seem competent to explain more than an insignificant part of the great contrast between May and September. The explanation seems to be that the hot, humid summer saps the vitality of the Japanese, especially the women, so that they are fiscally unable to reproduce themselves. If the weather which prevails in July and August should prevail throughout the year, the Japanese as a race would apparently diminish in numbers instead of increasing, with disquieting rapidity. Under such circumstances, natural selection would have

Starting point is 05:12:03 presumably work with great vigor. A race might arise capable of withstanding the most intense tropical conditions, but it would presumably differ from the present Japanese and many qualities such as energy and initiative. It would be easy to multiply examples, but space forbids. All sorts of physiological conditions appear to vary from season to season in essentially the same way, except that some responses, such as the energy of people and good health, lag only a little after the climatic conditions. Others, such as diseases and the rate of reproduction, lags several weeks. And still others, such as the growth of children,

Starting point is 05:12:41 and the occurrence of nervous breakdowns and suicides, lags to a farther. In the case of the mental disturbances, the lag is so great that it almost seems as if the onset of stimulating weather, after a period of unfaithful weather, had the effect of causing a sudden collapse. In reality, the real state of affairs may perhaps be this, the winter months produce an effect like that of driving a horse without rest and as rapidly as possible over a bad road when a stretch of good road is reached the driver to whom we made like in the weather whips the animal to his topmost speed and the tired beast soon breaks down

Starting point is 05:13:21 let us now try to analyze the effect of the seasons upon health and determine the relative part played by temperature humidity and variability a study of about nine million deaths by means of climate grass, as described in world power and evolution, leads to the conclusion that the optimum or most favorable condition for human health is an average outside temperature of about 64 degrees Fahrenheit, 18 degrees Celsius, for day and night, a relative humidity of about 80% and a fairly high degree of storminess, or at least of variability from day to day. This means a climate in which the midday temperature rises to 70 degrees more or less, while that of the night falls below 60 degrees. With the rise of temperature, the noonday relative humidity declines to perhaps 60%,

Starting point is 05:14:10 or during the cool night it rises high enough so that dew is precipitated. But a constant succession of clear days is not desirable. There must be occasional rains and variations in temperature, wind and cloudness from day to day. Tampa experiences such conditions at the end of February, New Orleans in March, Asheville in May, Atlantic City in early June, Seattle and August, Nantucket and Boston in September, and Portland, Oregon in October. At the season when people go in lightest numbers to many famous health resorts, the majority of such places enjoy climatic conditions,

Starting point is 05:14:47 closely approaching those which are ideal for physical health. A table is played on the page, effect of temperature on health and strength. The preceding table illustrates the type of statistical evidence on which is based the conclusion that a mean temperature of 64 degrees Fahrenheit is the optimum. The experimental evidence will be

Starting point is 05:15:09 illustrated later. Column A, B and C explain themselves. Column D indicates the approximate percentage by which a change of 10 degrees Fahrenheit raises or lowers a death rate when the temperature ranges between 30 and 60 degrees. When all seasons are taken together,

Starting point is 05:15:26 the net effect of a rise of temperature under such conditions is to lower the death rate. while a fall increases the death rate. This, however, applies only to a rise or fall in which the new condition of temperature endures for some time, as in the change from season to season. In 12 of the 18 cases in this table, the optimum outside temperature was from 62 degrees to 75 degrees Fahrenheit,

Starting point is 05:15:53 and in five cases, 64 degrees Fahrenheit. Two of the cases where the optimum falls to 60 degrees or lower, work piece work in Connecticut factories. This may be because such work involves mental as well as physical activity. We have found some evidence that the optimum temperature for mental work is considerably below that for physical work. Naturally, an occupation where mental and physical alertness are both needed would be most favoured by a temperature between the best temperatures for the body and the mind. As to the lower optimum of the north Italians, 58 degrees, I have no explanation.

Starting point is 05:16:31 The cause could perhaps be detected by a study of the other elements of the weather, such as humidity and wind, or of local diseases such as malaria. It is worth noting, however, that Campani, from an analysis of 24,500 deaths in Milan, obtains results closely similar to those here set forth. His results, to be sure, are especially important in respect to the variability rather than temperature. He finds that deaths are least numerous just after storms while the wind is blowing. They are most numerous in still air during the periods of stagnation and after periods with little change of temperature. Changes of temperature are beneficial in North Italy, just as in America. Among the three cases of the preceding table, where the ultimate temperature is above 65 degrees, one represents Cubans of Spanish descent, but with a good deal of coloured admixture,

Starting point is 05:17:27 and a second represents Negroes. In the first case, life in a tropical climate has presumably raised the optimum temperature somewhat. In the second, although the Negroes here dealt with lived largely in the parts of the United States from Maryland northward, they probably still retained an ancestral adaptation to a slightly warmer climate

Starting point is 05:17:47 than that which is best for the white race. It is worth noting, however, that the Cubans have spent practically their whole lives where the coolest month averages about 70 degrees and the hottest over 80 degrees, while the ancestors of the Negroes have dwelt for untold generations in regions still warmer. Nevertheless, the autumn for both groups, 68 degrees, seems to be lower, not only than the average temperature of their homes, but then the average for the coolest months in those homes.

Starting point is 05:18:18 I might add that for Negroes, the optimum humidity seems to be a little higher than for white men. This again may be an inheritance from a former environment. Such differences between diverse races suggest that permanent physiological change takes place whereby races become adjusted to diverse climates. The slightness of the differences, however, suggests that such adjustment is very slow and incomplete. An earlier and more fundamental adjustment to climate appears still to be largely dominant and may represent the climate under which man's chief physical evolution took place.

Starting point is 05:18:54 As for the extreme variation in California, where 70 degrees appears to be the best temperature, I'm inclined to think that it is due to accident. The California results depend largely on two cities, San Francisco, where the mean monthly temperature never reaches 70 degrees, and Los Angeles where conditions of wind and humidity may account for the favorable conditions during the months of high temperature. It is interesting to note that the average of the six extreme cases in the table is 64.2 degrees, against 63.9 degrees for the 12 medium cases.

Starting point is 05:19:28 It must be borne in mind, however, that the best temperature is not the same in dry climates as in moist. We shall return to this later. The conclusion that an outside main temperature of about 64 degrees Fahrenheit is the optimum for Europeans agrees closely with the conclusion now widely accepted that an inside temperature not above 68 degrees and preferably lower is the ideal. The effects of deviations from this ideal have been the subject of many careful experimental investigations, among which those carried on by the New York State Ventilation Commission under the Chairman of Professor C.E.A. Winslow are especially notable. The results of these experiments, as set forth in a volume entitled Ventilation, are so important that I shall conclude this chapter by quoting several pages,

Starting point is 05:20:20 which pertain not only to temperature, but to work other atmospheric conditions. The work of previous investigators, from Hermanns to Leonard Hill, has made it abundantly clear that extreme high atmospheric temperatures are highly prejudicial to human health and comfort, and that it is to such temperatures rather than to chemical pollution that the most serious effects of bad air are due. The most important result of our experiments has perhaps been the demonstration that even, in moderately high temperatures between 24 degrees and 30 degrees Celsius, 75 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit, are accompanied by demonstrative harmful results. A body temperature and circulatory phenomena.

Starting point is 05:21:05 We find that the rectal body temperature exhibits a definite relation to the temperature of the atmospheric environment. The body temperature, when observed at 8 a.m. during the summertime, showing a fairly close parallelism with the average temperature of the outdoor air for the preceding night. In our experimental chamber, we found that at 68 degrees Fahrenheit, the rectal temperature and heart rate tended to fall. The crampeden index of acetone increased, the resistance to the peripheral portion of the circulatory system rose, and the velocity of the blood flow was corresponding lessened. At 75 degrees Fahrenheit, the rectal temperature heart rate and crampton index changed but slightly.

Starting point is 05:21:46 At 86 degrees Fahrenheit, with 80% relative humidity, the rectal temperature of heart rate and crampton temperature and heart rate rose. The crampton index fell, the peripheral resistance decreased and the velocity of blood flow increased. The final average results obtained under the three atmospheric conditions where it is indicated below. The table is displayed on the page comparing their retro temperature, heart rate reclining, heart rate standing and crampton index to the temperatures and relative humidity. We are not prepared to say whether the maximum heart rates attained at 75 degrees Fahrenheit as compared with 86 degrees Fahrenheit are significant, but it is clear that rectal body temperature bears a direct and the crantrum index and inverse

Starting point is 05:22:29 relation to atmospheric temperature. After vigorous physical work, the return of the heart rate to normal was somewhat more prompt at 68 degrees Fahrenheit than at 75 degrees. Sistolic and diastolic blood pressure showed no very definite relation to temperature between 68 degrees Fahrenheit and 86 degrees Fahrenheit, but at 101 degrees Fahrenheit, blood pressure was well as rectal temperature and heart rate showed marked increases. B. Other physiological phenomena. The rate of respiration was slowly increased by moderately high temperatures from an average of 17.9 at 68 degrees Fahrenheit to 19.3 at 75 degrees Fahrenheit and 19.7 at 86 degrees Fahrenheit. While at 101 degrees Fahrenheit, while at 101 degrees Fahrenheit,

Starting point is 05:23:16 the increase was very marked. The dead space of the lungs, the volume on the supplemental air, the alkaline reserve of the blood, the respiratory quidient, the carbohydrate metabolism, the protein metabolism, and the total metabolism show no demonstratable relation to atmospheric temperature

Starting point is 05:23:34 under the conditions studied in our experiments. C. Comfort and mental efficiency So far as the sensations of the subjects are concerned, as evidenced by their votes as to the conditions, comfortableness of the experimental chamber. The difference between 68 degrees Fahrenheit and 75 degrees Fahrenheit is comparatively slight, but a temperature of 86 degrees Fahrenheit with 80% relative humidity is distinctly uncomfortable. The average votes falling sharply whether this condition is reached. This discomfort is not, however, accompanied by any inability to perform mental work,

Starting point is 05:24:10 such as naming of colors and opposites, cancellation, mental multiplication, and addition. Subjects urged a maximum performance did equally well under both conditions. The conditions being maintained for four hours a day, on five consecutive days, or eight hours a day on four consecutive days. Longer hours of exposure continued for a long period might of course yield different results, even when the subject was left free to work or not, as much mental work was accompanied at 75 degrees Fahrenheit as at 68 degrees Fahrenheit, other in one short experiment, a temperature of 86 degrees Fahrenheit. did seem to diminish the inclination to do mental work. At 75 degrees Fahrenheit, typewriting, which involves a certain amount of neuromuscular activity,

Starting point is 05:24:56 seemed to be slightly diminished while performance and mental multiplication was actually increased. In general, however, we have no clear evidence that moderate overheating impairs mental efficiency. D. Influence of atmospheric humidity Somewhat exhaustive studies of the alleged influence of atmospheric humidity upon mental achievement and comfort have yielded entirely negative results. With relative humiditys of 50% and 25% respectively, all other conditions being the same, there was no significant difference in the votes of the subjects as to their subjective sensations of comfort, no difference in temperature of the area next to the chest, or impulse rate, and

Starting point is 05:25:39 no difference in the performance of a long series of complex neuromuscular tasks specifically designed to test the alleged influence of a dry atmosphere upon nervousness and efficiency. Longer periods of exposure might of course produce effects not detected by us, but it seems clear that exposure to our relative humidity as low as 25% at a temperature of 75 degrees Fahrenheit for eight hours a day on five days a week does not produce any demonstratable harmful effects. We have demonstrated, on the other hand, a very marked and significant influence of atmospheric temperature upon the performance of physical work.

Starting point is 05:26:18 An increase of room temperature from 68 degrees Fahrenheit to 75 degrees Fahrenheit caused a decrease of 15% in the physical work performed by men who were not compelled to maximum effort, but was stimulated by a cash bonus. At an increase from 68 degrees Fahrenheit to 86 degrees Fahrenheit with 80% relative humidity causes a decrease 20% in the physical work performed under conditions of, of maximal effort. The fall at 75 degrees Fahrenheit was most marked in the afternoon hours when fatigue effects were called into play. F, suspectability to disease. Finally, we have found very definite evidence of the harmful influence of moderately high atmospheric temperatures, particularly if followed by sudden exposure to low temperatures, in promoting

Starting point is 05:27:06 susceptibility to bacterial infection. We find that rabbits maintained at a temperature of 86. degrees Fahrenheit, show a distinctly delayed formation of hemolysis and a slightly reduced agglunitive power as compared with animals kept at 68 degrees Fahrenheit, and that rabbits kept at 76 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and then chilled to 20 to 50 degrees, or chilled first and kept at 79 degrees Fahrenheit, are much more susceptible to infection than animals kept at 65 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Exhaustive observations on the nasal moccosa of human subjects shows that in a warm atmosphere there is an increase.

Starting point is 05:27:48 In a cool atmosphere, a decrease in swelling, moisture and redness of the nasal mucous membranes. Sudden change from hot to a cold atmosphere, particularly when combined with drafts, produce moist and distended, but anemic condition of the mucusa, presumably highly favorable to bacterial infusion, and wherefore. and workers who have been habitually exposed to high temperatures show a marked excess of atropic rhinitis. Hot moist air, as in the case of laundry workers, seems to be much more harmful than hot dry air, as in the case of furnace men.

Starting point is 05:28:25 2. The effect of chemically-vitiated air upon physiological state, upon comfort, and upon efficiency. In parallel with our experiments upon the effect of temperature, We also study the possible influence of air, chemically vitiated by human occupancy, but at the same temperature and humidity as fresh air used as a control. The factor of air movement was excluded by the use of room fans to stir up both fresh and stale air so that no difference existed, save the very slight changes in oxygen and carbon dioxide, and the more obvious changes in odiferous organic constituents due to respiration and effluvia from the body.

Starting point is 05:29:07 A. Physiological reactions. Comfort, mental efficiency and resistance to infection. In most of the reactions studied in our experiments, the influence of chemical vitiation of the atmosphere appeared to be absolutely nil. Temperature and humidity being the same, but compared fresh air containing 5 to 11 parts per 10,000 of carbon oxide, with vitiated air containing 23, 266 parts and found no difference in body-distance. temperature, heart rate, blood pressure, cramped in index, rate of respiration, dead space in the lungs, as a deuce of the blood, respiratory cordient, rate of heart production, rate of digestion, and protein metabolism. Comfort votes indicated that the subjects were quite unable to distinguish from the standpoint of sensation between the fresh and the stale air conditions. The performance

Starting point is 05:30:01 of mental work was quite unaffected by the chemically vitiated atmosphere. In a special series of animal experiments. Guinea pigs exposed to strong faecal odors for considerable periods failed to exhibit any increased expectability to inoculations with foreign bacteria or to injection of diphtheria toxin. B. Physical work. In regard to the performance of physical work, on the other hand, there appeared to be a distinctly harmful influence of the vitiated air. Temperature and humidity being the same, our subjects performed 9% less work in stale

Starting point is 05:30:38 than in fresh air, a difference less marked than that produced by warm as compared with cool air, 15%, but apparently significant. When both unfavorable conditions were combined in warm and stale air, only 77% as much fiscal work was performed as in cool fresh air. C, appetite and growth. Finally we found a marked influence, exeter by stale air upon the appetite for food, as determined by serving standard lunches to parallel groups of subjects in state and fresh air, respectively, but with the same temperature and humidity.

Starting point is 05:31:18 In the four different series of experiments, which were successfully completed on this basis without the intrusion of interfering factors, the excess of food consumed under fresh air conditions was respectively 4.4, 6.8, 8.6 and 13.6%. Since the probable error is involved in these experiments were relatively very slight, it seemed evident that the chemical constituents or vitiated air may not only diminish the tendency to do physical work, but also the appetite for food. This conclusion is strengthened from another direction by demonstration that exposure to strong fickle odors

Starting point is 05:31:55 causes a restraining influence upon the rate of growth of guinea pigs during, but not after, the first week of exposure. 3. Practical conclusions in regard to ideal conditions of ventilation. The experiments of the Commission have in general confirmed the conclusion of earlier investigators at the first and foremost condition to be avoided in regulating the atmosphere of occupied rooms is an excessively high temperature. We have found that even slight overheating, 75 degrees Fahrenheit, produces the following harmful results. 1. A burden upon the heat-regulating system of the body, leading to an increased body temperature,

Starting point is 05:32:36 an increased heart rate, and a marked decrease in general vasomotone tone as registered by a fall in the Crampton Index. 2. A slight but definite increase in rate of respiration. 3. A considerable decrease in the amount of physical work performed under conditions of equal incentive. a decrease amounting to 15% at 75 degrees Fahrenheit and a 20% at 86 degrees Fahrenheit. 4. A markedly abnormal reaction of the mucous membranes of the nose, leading autumnly to chronic atmospheric rhinitis, and when followed by chore, producing a moist and distended condition of the membranes calculated to favor bacterial invasion. In animals exposed to high atmospheric temperatures, particularly when,

Starting point is 05:33:23 followed by chill, diminishes the protective power of the blood, and markedly increases general susceptibility to microbic disease. For these reasons, we believe that the dangers of room overheating are far more serious in their effect upon human health and efficiency than is generally being realized, and that every effort should be made to keep the temperature of the schoolroom, the workroom, and the living room at 68 degrees Fahrenheit or below. With regard to the problem of relative humidity, it is obvious that a high moisture, content combined with high temperature must always be harmful, since the effect of a humid atmosphere is to decrease the heat loss from the body by evaporation. The specifically harmful influence of unduly low humidity which has been postulated by various riders upon ventilation has, on the other hand, not been apparent in our investigations.

Starting point is 05:34:16 Our results in regard to the influence of the chemical composition of radiated air, temperature and humidity effects being excluded, have been generally negative. In two respects, however, our experiment suggests that some chemical constituents of the air of an unventilated room may be ejectionable. Such air appears, one, to decrease the appetite of human subjects for food, and two, to diminish substantially the amount of physical work performed under conditions of equivalent stimulation. We may conclude then that the primary condition of good ventilation is the maintenance of a room temperature of 16 degrees Fahrenheit or below without the production of chilling

Starting point is 05:34:57 drafts, but that it is also important on account of certain subtle but real effects of radiated air upon appetite and inclination to work to provide for an air change sufficient to avoid a heavy concentration of effluvia, such as was associated in our experiments, with the carbon dioxide content of 23 to 66 parts per 10,000. Except in respect to humidity at moderate and low temperatures, this long quotation reinforces the conclusions set forth in this book and in World Power and Evolution. It brings out the extreme sensitiveness of human health to atmospheric conditions. It shows the temperature is undoubtedly the most important factor. It has experimental proof to the widespread opinion that as soon as the

Starting point is 05:35:45 temperature rises much above 70 degrees, man's capacity and inclination for physical work decline, and his susceptibility to disease increases. If high atmospheric humidity is added to high temperature, as in many tropical countries, the harmful effects are shown to be much accentuated. The fact that the ventilation commission detected no effect of high temperature and humidity upon mental work seems to mean merely that when people are subjected to moderately adverse conditions for short periods amounting to less than 20% of the time, for a few weeks, that physical handicaps do not become pronounced except to exert a measurable influence upon the mind. It seems only logical to suppose that if the adverse physical conditions arising from high temperature

Starting point is 05:36:32 and high humidity were to continue and produce a full effect, the mental powers would ultimately suffer. Thus even this phase of the Commission's work is not inconsistent with the conclusions of this book. In the same connection, it is interesting to note that although the Commission made no experiments on the effect on variability, its report contains in several places the specific suggestion that variability may be an important but unconsidered factor the only point wherein the commission's conclusions radically differ from my own in respect to humidity

Starting point is 05:37:08 a subject which we shall consider in the next chapter in spite of this discrepancy the report of the Ventilation Commission in its main aspects confirms the general conclusions of this book as to the relative of depressing effect of tropical climates, regardless of specific diseases, and as to the beneficial effects of relatively cool, varietal climates.

Starting point is 05:37:32 End of Section 7. Section 8. Of Civilization and Climate, by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a LibreFox recording, or LibreFox Accordings from the public domain. For more information to volunteer, please visit Librox.org. Recorded by Leon Harvey Chapter 8 mortality, moisture, and variability

Starting point is 05:37:59 It is much as there is some disagreement as the effect of atmospheric moisture upon health It will be well to examine the evidence carefully On the basis of the deaths in Paris From 1904 to 1913 Besant, the chief of the service physique et meteorologic of that city Has come to the conclusion that on the whole

Starting point is 05:38:22 When the humidity increases the mortality from diseases of the respiratory organs decreases two or three weeks later. If one examines each season separately, one finds that this rule fails only in summer when there is no clear result. According to a widespread opinion, humidity acts in an unfavorable manner upon human health. The result announced above cannot fail to surprise many people. One sees that an increased number of deaths from diseases of the respiratory organs is on a an average preceded not by an increase, but a decrease in the humidity.

Starting point is 05:39:02 To test this further, Besson divided the winter months into two grips, one with the main relative humidity below 86%, and averaging 82.4, and the other above 86%, averaging 89.2. He found that the deaths per week went relatively high or low humidity prevailed, and the succeeding weeks averaged as follows. A table displayed on the page, comparing the deaths per week, in low humidity and high humidity compared to the average of high over low humidity in percent of low.

Starting point is 05:39:37 It seems clear that during these 10 years in Paris the drier weeks of winter, even though they were quite moist, were accompanied by a slightly increased death rate from respiratory diseases, and were followed in the next two weeks by a death rate about 3% higher than that which followed the moist weeks. Besson describes part of this effect the direction of the wind, but the effect of the wind must be reduced largely through humidity and temperature.

Starting point is 05:40:03 What part is played by temperature in the results for Paris is not clear. A study of my own includes temperature as well as humidity and gives results almost identical with those of Besson. I used the deaths from Pumonia in New York City during the year beginning in April 1917 and compared them with the weather on the day of death and on the preceding day. All the days of any given temperature were divided into two equal groups on the basis their relative humidity. Here are the results for the 7,200 deaths from low bar pneumonia. Those for bronchopumonia were somewhat similar, but much more irregular,

Starting point is 05:40:41 presumably because the number of deaths was only a third is great. The table is split on the page, average deaths per day from low bar pneumonia on same day as given weather conditions and on succeeding day, New York, April 1st, 1917 to March 31st, 1918. The obvious fact here is that at all temperatures the moist days were better than the dry, as appears in the lower line. The same thing holds true whether we consider the deaths on the same day as a humidity or on the succeeding day. While Besson's status seem to show that dryness renders people susceptible to the initial attack of pneumonia, which results in death after a fortnight, more or less. The New York data suggests that when the disease nears its crisis, a dry day may turn the balance toward death.

Starting point is 05:41:27 whereas a moist's day turns it toward life. In cold weather, however, this effect is slight. For when the temperature is below 45 degrees, the moist's days in the preceding table reduce the death rate by only 4.5% on an average, at the temperatures of 56 degrees to 70. On the other hand, an additional grain and a half of water vapour per cubic foot of space, or a difference of roughly 20% in relative humidity, is associated with a diminution of about 80% in the death rate.

Starting point is 05:41:57 rate. This is especially important because these are the temperatures at which our houses have kept, or ought to be kept most of the year. It adds another to the bits of evidence which indicate that for respiratory diseases a dry climate is worse than a moist one. The opposite belief has perhaps become traditional, largely because in dry climates people live out of doors. Other things being equal, it is always more helpful to live outdoors rather than indoors. In this connection, it might be added that Besson's conclusions as to the relation of temperature to the death rate from respiratory diseases, I agree with mine as to the similar relation to deaths from each of the two main types of pneumonia.

Starting point is 05:42:38 At temperatures between freezing and 60 degrees Fahrenheit, there is an almost perfectly regular decline in the number of deaths as the temperature rises. Then the decline becomes less and less marked, and a minimum is reached at about 72 degrees. At higher temperatures, a slight increase makes itself apparent, but does not go far because there are only a few days in either Paris or New York when the main temperature rises much above 75 degrees. Still another investigation, then of Greenberg, who studied the monthly deaths from Pumonia in New York, Boston, Newark and Providence, agrees with the two already cited as the effect of both temperature and humidity upon Pumonia. Such close agreement

Starting point is 05:43:22 makes it practically certain that the humidity of the air as well as the temperature is an important element in determining the death rate from respiratory diseases. The need of satanity as to the effect of atmospheric humidity is so great that I shall sum up a number of other examples in the form of a long table which the non-scientific reader can skip. Since the effect of humidity varies according to temperature, we must carefully distinguish between temperatures above and below the optimum of 64 degrees. At the optimum temperature in every one of the groups of deaths listed in Section A of this table, The best conditions of health prevailed when the relative humidity average 70% or more for day and night together. At higher temperatures, a relative humidity which averages above 70% for day and night together does very decided harm. At the optimum temperature, the effect of humidity seems to be at a minimum, and a humidity above 70% does little harm.

Starting point is 05:44:20 A lower humidity, although somewhat harmful, has less effect than at other temperatures. The increase in the death rate ranging from 5% to 15% according to the degree of dryness. This may be one reason why the New York Ventilation Commission found no clear effect of low humidity. The main experiments were performed at temperatures close to the optimum. At temperatures below the optimum, the effect of humidity upon the death rate is very clear, much more so than at the optimum. For example, at a temperature of about 40 degrees Fahrenheit, a difference value tempered in humidity appears to produce a proximity.

Starting point is 05:44:55 the effect shown in Section A of the following table. The table is displayed on the following page. Effect of humidity on the death rate. A, increase in monthly death rate accompanying a decrease of 10% in relative humidity at a temperature of 40 degrees Fahrenheit. B, increase in monthly death rate accompanying a decrease of 10% in relative humidity at all temperatures, December, March, 1914. C, increase in daily death rate. and daily death rate accompanying a decrease of 10% in relative humidity at all temperatures during the influence epidemic in New York City, September, December, 1918, and Boston, October,

Starting point is 05:45:35 2018, April, 2019. This table represents all the available mortality data, except those already mentioned and certain others to be given shortly. Practically all the evidence seems to point in the same direction. In 21 out of the 23 sets of data in the table, the moisture days or months have an advantage over the dryer. The negative figures for Boston, NOS, 22 and 23 may be accidental, or may mean that Boston's famous east winds, unlike the moist winds in most places, are really too damp. Taking the table as a whole, an increase of 10% in humidity at low temperatures is correlated

Starting point is 05:46:19 with an average decrease, not far from 6% in the death rate. Let us now turn to quite a different investigation. In Boston, I made a study of the number of deaths following operations performed in different kinds of weather. On the basis of about 2,300 deaths after operations from 1906 to 1915, the addition of a grain of moisture per cubic foot of space to the air within doors would have diminished the death rate as follows, provided the inside air thereby acquired the qualities pertaining to the outside air, moistened by nature. A table is displayed on the page, apparent effect of one

Starting point is 05:46:57 grain of water broke cubic foot of air in diminishing the death rate after operations in Boston 1906 to 1915. Because of the small number of deaths this table is irregular, but the regularities have little significance. At temperatures below the optimum the death rate was higher after operations performed in damp weather than after those performed when the air was dry. This was especially true when the moist weather continued a day or two. after the operations. At high temperatures however, the effect of humidity is not at all the same as that low as appears in figure 15. Figure 15 is displayed on the page, post-operative

Starting point is 05:47:36 death rate in Boston in relation to humidity and temperature. Dry conditions are shown towards left, moist towards the right. The height of the lines shows the number of deaths per day succeeding operations performed when various conditions of relative humidity prevailed at 8 a.m. The broken lines A, B and C indicate the number of deaths in cool weather. Note that regular decline towards the right. High humidity was evidently an advantage. No contrast to dotted lines with the solid line. A. Indicating the effect of humidity when the temperature at 8am was above 70 degrees. and as such conditions, far more than in cooler weather, dry air was bad. Moderally moist air with a relative humidity of 50 to 60% was better than even the moistest air of lower temperatures.

Starting point is 05:48:28 But note how rapidly the death rate after operations performed in hot weather rises if high humidity is added to great heat. Nevertheless, the evil effects of very damp hot days in Boston do not appear to be so bad as those of very dry hot days. This study of surgical operations seems to afford strong evidence of the extreme sensitiveness of the human body to variation's humidity as well as temperature. The fact that it gives a different result at temperatures above and below the optimum tends to establish confidence, for the results at high temperature and high humidity are in perfect accord with a common experience and with the experiments carried on by such organizations as the New York Ventilation Commission and the laboratory of the American Society of Heating and Ventilating Engineers at Pittsburgh. In other countries, as well as in France, Italy and the United States, when so data have thus far come.

Starting point is 05:49:23 These statistics seem usually to indicate that extreme dryness is harmful to health. Other things have been equal, the death rates appear generally to be higher in dry regions than in moist. For example, Lucknow and Cairo in dry climates have death rates far higher than mass. Athras in Bombay, which are moist and tropical. Mexico City, on its high, cool, but dry plateau, and Johannesburg and Madrid in somewhat similar locations have exceptionally high death rates in view of their temperature and latitude. In Mexico and India, the dry season of March, April and May, has a decidedly higher death rate than the succeeding wet season. This happens in spite of the fact that the temperature in Mexico City during May averages 65 degrees,

Starting point is 05:50:09 It is almost ideal, while in July it averages a degree or two cool and is almost equally ideal. In India, on the other hand, both the dry spring and the wet summer are hot, so that the wet season is very muggy. Yet the people have a sigh of relief when the rains come, for it brings hope of a diminutioned disease as well as of good crops. Let us turn to variability or storminess, another factor which seems to cooperate with temperature and humidity. in determining the effect of climate. This factor is especially important

Starting point is 05:50:44 because of its bearing on change of climate and their effective history. In world power and evolution, the study of climographs based on 8 million deaths in France, Italy, and the United States suggests that people's sensitiveness to changes of temperature is almost directly proportional to the uniformity of their climate.

Starting point is 05:51:03 For example, in San Francisco, a change of only 7 degrees in the mean monthly temperature, 50 degrees January, 57 degrees July, is associated with a change in the death rate from 16.4% above normal to 11.7% below, or about 4% for every degree of temperature. At St. Paul in Minneapolis,

Starting point is 05:51:23 a change from a main temperature of 12 degrees in January to 67 degrees in June, is accompanied by a change in the death rate from 5.5% above normal to 6.9 below, or only 0.23% for each degree of temperature. In the same way, a difference of about 9 degrees Celsius between January and May and Naples is accompanied by a difference of 35.3% in the death rate, whereas in Milan, a difference of 16 degrees Celsius in temperature is associated with a difference of only 26.8% in the death rate.

Starting point is 05:51:58 Put another way, this means that the apparent effect of a given change of temperature is 2.3 times as great in Naples of the south, as in Milan of the north, and over 17 times as great in San Francisco with its remarkably uniform climate, as in St. Paul and Minneapolis, with their severe winters and many storms at all seasons. In other words, where great changes of weather take place, people become hardened to them. The reality of this hardening is demonstrated again and again by the way in which northerners who move to the tropics lose their power of resistance to even the slightest change of temperature, but regain it, after a few years of renewed reneous. residents in a severe climate.

Starting point is 05:52:40 The relation between variety and the power to resist disease seems quite clear, but as yet there seems to be no conclusive evidence as to the relative importance of variations from day to day, such as accompanying storms, and of variations from season to season. The evidence which will now be set forth pertains to changes of temperature from day to day. In world power and evolution, one of the most important lines of evidence has to do with variations of temperature from one day to the next to New York City. A study of about 400,000 deaths during a period of 8 years from 1877 to 8 and 84 shows that when the temperature falls, the death rate also falls, while a rise in temperature is

Starting point is 05:53:22 regularly accompanied by a corresponding rise in the death rate. This happens not only in summer, when one would expect it, but at all seasons, including even the winter, when one would surely suppose that warm weather would be beneficial. And so it is in the in the long run, but the immediate change toward warmth is temporarily harmful. In this investigation, instead of applying the absolute number of deaths, as in previous cases, the change in the number of deaths from one day to the next has been used. This is done partially in order that the greater frequency of days with abrupt changes of temperature in winter than in summer may not confuse our results.

Starting point is 05:54:02 It is likewise because in dealing with changes of temperature, the natural question is whether such changes have any effect in changing the death rate. The upper part of figure 16 illustrates another investigation of the same kind in respect to daily deaths from Pumonia in New York. The left-hand side of the diagram indicates the conditions which prevail when the mean temperature of the day of death is higher than that of the preceding day, while the right-hand side indicates that the temperature is fallen. The two solid dines indicate the summer relationships from April to September,

Starting point is 05:54:36 A being lobar-pumonia, and B, bronchopumonia. The dotted lines show winter conditions, C, low-bar and D. Broncomaumonia. The significant points about these four curves are as follows. One, they all essentially alike. This suggests that they all conform to the same definite physiological law. Figure 16 is displayed on the page, relation between deaths from pneumonia and fluenza, and interdunal changes of temperature.

Starting point is 05:55:06 Every one of them is low, at the two ends, and high in the middle. This seems to indicate that under normal conditions, such as prevailed in the year ending in March, 1918, patients suffering from either form of pneumonia are less likely to die on days when there has been a marked change of temperature in either direction, than on days when there is little or no change. This conclusion applies to both summer and winter, but is more true in summer than winter. Hence, for Pimonia, patients, a variable climate seems better than one that is uniform. The agreement of the curves with our conclusions derived from factory work, and with those of Campani in Italy, is noteworthy. 3. A drop of temperature, on an average, is a slightly more effective than a rise and low in the death rate.

Starting point is 05:55:54 This again agrees with the results of our factory investigation. The lower part of figure 16 shows the results of a similar investigation of the influencer epidemic and latter part of 1918. Because of the enormous variations in the death rate, I have here used the percentage rather than the actual number of deaths by which each day's death toll differed from that of the preceding day. Both New York, Southern Lions and Boston dotted lines had been included. The investigation has been borne to include one, the number of cases in which influenza A and pneumonia B attacked a patient, or at least in the case of Boston, were reported to have done so, and two, the number of deaths from influenza C and pneumonia, D.

Starting point is 05:56:39 The significant points in figure 16 are as follows. 1. All the lies except that for deaths from Bumonia in Boston, C, slip in the same way, thus indicating that a rise of temperature is worse than no change, and that it will fall as much better than either. This disagrees with the preceding investigation of normal pneumonia, but that may be simply because the lower part of figure 16 includes only the winter months and not those of the spring when the advent of warm days would be beneficial. The average changes in the rates for all the conditions shown in the lower part of figure 16 amount to an increase of 14.1% in the deaths

Starting point is 05:57:19 and illnesses on days with a strong rise of temperature and 3.4% of days with little no change, whereas on days with a strong drop of temperature, the change takes the form of a drop of 18.4%. This means that for all the days when the temperature was markedly different from that preceding days, no matter whether it was higher or lower, there was an average drop of 2.2% in the rates of disease and death against the rise of 3.4% on the days of comparatively uniform weather. In other words, here, just as in normal pneumonia, the variable weather

Starting point is 05:57:56 had an advantage over the uniform weather. This inclusion is quite contradictory to the usual ideas, but it is supported by many other bits of evidence. One such bit is found in the following data as to the average number of deaths per day in Boston hospitals after surgical operations when specified changes of temperature

Starting point is 05:58:16 took place between the day of an operation and the succeeding day. Small tables displayed on the page, comparing the inter-dinarinal change of temperature to the daily deaths, December to February and the daily deaths between March to November. The first column suggests that in winter the changes of temperature are too severe in Boston, so that days with only a little change have an advantage of about 4% over the days with a violent change.

Starting point is 05:58:45 From March to November, however, the conditions are quite different. Operations performed on days with the smallest changes are followed by 41% more deaths then are those performed when the temperature changed most strongly from the day of the operation to the next day. Thus for the years a whole, the variable weather displays a distinct advantage just as in New York. The net result of our studies thus far is a conclusion that temperature, humidity and variability all play important parts in determining variations in health and mortality from day to day, month to month, season to season, and year to year. For each climatic factor, there appears to be a distinct optimum or most favourable condition,

Starting point is 05:59:30 but this varies considerably in response to differences in the other factors. Thus the optimum temperature in dry weather is not, the same as in wet, and presumably is not the same in variable weather as in that which is uniform. The high level of the optimum temperature which we found in California may possibly be due in part to the uniformity of the weather. Again, a degree of humidity, which is highly favorable at a temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, may work severe harm at 80 degrees, just as a degree of variability, which is highly beneficial in warm weather, may be too extreme in the midst of a cold winter. In the rest of this chapter, I shall describe certain investigations in which the three

Starting point is 06:00:14 climatic factors of temperature, humidity, and variability are analyzed in reference to the influence epidemic in 1918. The investigation of influenza was carried out by a committee on the atmosphere and man, appointed by the National Research Council of the United States. A mathematical method known as partial correlation coefficients was employed. This method had the remarkable quality of picking out and isolated the effect of any one among a number of factors as in an experiment. In the present case, the committee had set itself to completion,

Starting point is 06:00:47 released the extension of a task already begun by Professor Perl of John Hopkins University. The task was to ascertain whether any environmental conditions were responsible for the great differences in the mortality of the influenza epidemic of 1918 from one city to another. During the 10 weeks of the main epidemic, Philadelphia, for example, had a death rate from influenza and the resultant pneumonia four times as great as that of Milwaukee, while the death rated Pittsburgh was twice as great as in the neighboring and similar city of Cleveland. Before the committee's investigation was finished, the following 22 factors had been examined. 8. Factors of Human Environment. Demography.

Starting point is 06:01:31 1. Age proportion of adhabitants of various ages. 2. Sex. Number of females were 100 males. 3. Density of the population, persons per acre within city. 4. Rate of growth from 1900 to 910. B. Factors of Geographical Position 5. Distance from Boston where the epidemic began. 6. Longitude. 7. Laptude. C. Physiological factors. Normal death rates in 1915, 1916 and 1917 from 8. All cases. 9. Pulmonary tuberculosis.

Starting point is 06:02:06 10. Organic diseases of the heart. 11. Nephritis and acute brights disease. 12. Typhoid fever. 13. Cancer and other malignant tumors. D. Radical factors. 14. Percentage of Negroes 1920. 15. Percentage of foreign born 1920. E. Industrial factor.

Starting point is 06:02:31 16. Percentage of population engaged in manufacturing in 1919. F. Climatic factors. 17. Main temperature for day and night. 18. Change of main temperature from 1.1. day to the next. 19. Absolute humidity. Weight of water vapor per cubic foot of space. 20. Relative humidity. Or a percentage of possible water vapor. 21. Weather. A combination of NOS, 17 and 20. 22. Climatic energy has defined in this book. Directly or indirectly, these 22 factors embrace most of their conditions which may have been

Starting point is 06:03:11 effective in causing people's power resistance to the epidemic to vary from city to city to city. Sanitation of medical practice failed to appear in the list because their degree of excellence cannot easily be expressed in figures. But the death rate from typhoid fever is generally supposed to be an unusually good measure of sanitary efficiency. While other death rates are in most places a fairly good index of the excellence of the medical service, almost the only important field which the factors do not cover is that variations in the disease bringing bacteria so far as such variations are due to causes. not included in our table.

Starting point is 06:03:48 When all these various factors are investigated by means of the most exact and delicate mathematical method yet known, the only one which shows any conclusive casual relation to the destructiveness of this particular epidemic is the weather. In the work which ultimately led to this conclusion, the Committee on the Atmospherician man took the death rate from influenza and pneumonia during the 10 weeks succeeding the outbreak of the epidemic in each of the 36 large cities in the United States. These 10 weeks cover the first, and in most places much the more important outbreak. The committee also obtained data as to the temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and change of temperature from one day to the next.

Starting point is 06:04:32 The weather data were tabulated for periods of 10 days, beginning 70 days before the onset of the epidemic, and continuing 50 days thereafter. Previous to the 30th day before the epidemic, there is evidence of no real relationship between any weather condition and the destructiveness of the influenza. During the 30 days just before the onset of the epidemic, however, the temperature and especially the absolute are distinguished from the relative humidity show a distinct relation to the exceeding death rate. This means that if the weather was warm during the month before the influenza reached a city,

Starting point is 06:05:07 the death rate was high. If the amount of moisture in the air was great, the conditions were still worse. At Boston, for example, from the 20th to the 11th day before the epidemic, the temperature was higher than during the corresponding period in any other cities except New Orleans, New York and Los Angeles. This was natural for the epidemic brok yard in Boston earlier than elsewhere. In places like St. Paul, Toledo and Grand Rapids, the cool and fairly dry autumn weather, which prevailed for a month before the epidemic apparently gave people a certain degree of stored up figure which stood them in good stead and lessen the ravages of the disease. If the temperature was variable as in Cleveland, Columbus and Richmond, and especially if it fell during the 10 days after the onset of the epidemic, the death rate was lower than

Starting point is 06:06:00 where the contrary conditions prevailed. On the other hand, high relative humidity during the 10 days before the onset was associated with relatively high death rate. Cambridge, New Haven and New Orleans suffered most in this respect. The dam has perhaps made it easy for the bacteria to be transmitted. Droplets of water in the air may act as carriers of the bacteria, or may preserve their virility. From the 10th to the 30th days after the onset of the epidemic, the virulence of the bacteria was apparently so great that the state of the weather paid no difference in the death rate.

Starting point is 06:06:36 At any rate, there is no evidence that the immediate weather conditions had any effect in overcoming the sudden and sweeping character of the infection. After the 30th day, however, there came another change, and the apparent effects of temperature and absolute humidity again rose high. This was a time when in most places the disease reached its maximum and began to decline. At that time cool and moderately dry weather once more was associated with a low death rate. This does not necessarily mean that cold weather is favourable at the time of an epidemic. In fact, quite the contrary may be the case. very low temperature may be as bad as high. Labrador suffered greatly in the epidemics of

Starting point is 06:07:18 1918. Having reached the conclusion that atmospheric conditions influenced the severity of the epidemic, the next step was to find a numerical expression for the weather by combining the temperature, humidity, and variability according to their apparent importance. When this has been done, the method of partial correlations was used to compare the weather with the severity of the epidemic and with all other factors which showed any sign of being important, namely deaths from tuberculosis, deaths from all causes, deaths from heart disease, and climatic energy. The weather proved to be the only one whose correlation coefficient was more than four times the probable error, and hence large enough to be significant. The final partial correlation coefficient when the four

Starting point is 06:08:06 other factors named above were held constant, that the elimination amounts to 0.57. This is 7.6 times a probable error, which means that there is only one chance in hundreds of millions that we are being misled by accidental agreements between the weather and the death rate. Thus, to quote the report of the committee, the statistical fact is clear. The weather which means primarily the weather just before the onset of the epidemic, or at or just after the climax, is the one factor thus far investigated which shows a clear pronounced and persistent religiously. to the destructiveness of the epidemic. This does not mean that the weather was in any sense that caused the epidemic.

Starting point is 06:08:49 It is even possible that the weather may be related to the epidemic only indirectly, as is the case with the death rate from heart disease, although no factor capable of producing this result, as yet been suggested. Even if the weather is a casual factor in producing variations in the virulence of the epidemic, there is no reason to think that it is the only factor. If the degree of relationship between two variables is proportional to the square of the correlation coefficient, as is sometimes held, the weather, even if it is a direct agent, may be responsible for no more than a third of the variations from city to city. Nor do our higher correlation coefficients mean that the weather had anything to do with setting the date of the epidemic

Starting point is 06:09:34 or determining the severity of the 1918 epidemic compared with other epidemics. neither do they prove anything as to the effect of the weather in other countries, although elsewhere, a relationship similar to that found of the United States seems probable. For instance, the British government estimates that in India the death rate from the epidemic was about six times as great as in the United States. While Scandia reports from other tropical countries indicate a similar excessive mortality, the one thing which seems clear from the present investigation is that the weather is the one factor those apparent relationship to the epidemic is not seriously reduced or modified when other conditions are held constant.

Starting point is 06:10:16 The results of this investigation should be qualified in still another respect. It is not necessary to suppose that other epidemics will show exactly the same relationship as the epidemic of 1918, even though they may be strongly influenced by the weather. In the first place, the epidemic of 1918 was so peculiar in its vigilance, its rapid dissemination, its fatality for persons in the prime of life, and in other respects, that it may well have been peculiar in its climatic relationships. In the second place, the epidemic occurred at a season when the approach of cold weather normally exerts a strong, stimulating effect in the United States.

Starting point is 06:10:58 It is well known that from August to October or even November, the death rate normally declines. The epidemic seems to have reflected this condition, just so soon. far as the weather approaches the conditions which prevail the time when the alter mortality is lowest. The ravages of the epidemic were checked. At some other coldest season, relatively low temperature and low humidity might be as harmful as high temperature and high humidity appeared to have been in September, October and November, 1918. As a matter of fact, the epidemic of February March 2019 shows a small positive correlation between the monthly death rate and the temperature. Other conditions, perhaps other conditions of weather,

Starting point is 06:11:42 were then dominant, or possibly some seas were too cold, while others were too warm. A condition which would make the use of correlation coefficients impracticable. Finally, even if the weather should prove to be an important factor in causing variations in the virulence of influenza, we still have little evidence as to how its effects are produced. Presumably, the weather gives to the human being more or less power of resistance to disease, but is not improbable that the weather also has an important effect upon the vigor, reproductive rate, or transmission of the disease bringing bacteria. End of Section 8

Starting point is 06:12:21 Section 9 are of Civilization and Climate by Osworth Huntingdon. This is a Librevox recording. All Libreox recordings in the public domain. For more information to volunteer, please visit Librevox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 10 Health and Weather This chapter deals with two investigations

Starting point is 06:12:48 of the relation between health and the weather. They seem to me the most conclusive evidence yet available along this line because the various weather elements are more clearly separated than in most cases and because there is no danger of confusing the effects of different seasons. The first investigation pertains to the weather day by day

Starting point is 06:13:07 is by far the most extensive of which daily data have been employed. It presents a cooperative effort carried on by the Committee on the Atmospheric and Man of the National Research Council of the United States at the Metropolitan and New York Life Insurance Companies. In addition to the author, those most closely concerned in planning the work were Dr. J. Arthur Harris of the Carnegie Institution Laboratory at Cold Spring Harbor and Dr. L.I. Dublin of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company.

Starting point is 06:13:38 but many suggestions were received from others. The results appear to be fairly conclusive as to main temperature and changes of temperature, but are inconclusive as to relative humidity. In order to obtain an adequate series of daily mortality data, the committee was obliged to go back to the years 1882 to 1888 in New York City. At that time and for a few years previous, the actual day of death was recorded and the facts were summarized by days published in the annual reports of the New York Board of Health.

Starting point is 06:14:10 This highly valuable record has not since been equaled either in New York or elsewhere, so far as I am aware. The committee used three sets of mortality dinner. 1. Deaths of children under 5 years of age. 2. Defts of persons over 5 years of age. 3. Deaths from pneumonia. In order to avoid errors due to the growth of population and the improvement in medical practice, here was treated as a separate unit, and each category of deaths was reduced to percentages of the average number of deaths per day in that particular year. For the phase of the

Starting point is 06:14:47 investigation here under discussion, the method of partial correlation and coefficients was employed. For the layman, it may be well to repeat that by this method, the effects of different factors can be separated as in an experiment. In order to avoid periods when the temperature is sometimes above and sometimes below the optimum, the months of December to March were chosen. This is also advisable because the effect of the various climatic elements in winter is less understood than their effect in summer. One aim of the work was to eliminate the effect of the seasons and determine whether a mere departure of the weather elements from the normal for any special month has any effect. Accordingly, in preparing the data for the correlation, coefficients each month

Starting point is 06:15:33 was treated as a separate unit, and the departures of all kinds were reckoned from the averages for December, January and so forth. This made it possible to ascertain or must be on question that the weather day by day causes small variations in health, which are superposed upon a large seasonal variations. The committee used three elements of the weather. One, the main daily temperature. 2. The interdurnal change of mean temperature from one day to the next, and three, the main daily relative humidity. In nature, the effects of these three elements are inextricably mixed. By the method of partial correlation sorts them out. The results of this sorting appear in figure 17. The day marks zero is a day on which a given condition of weather occurs.

Starting point is 06:16:22 The weather elements on each such day have been compared with the depths on that day, and on each of the 14 succeeding days. Figure 17 is displayed on the previous page, correlation between weather elements and daily deaths in New York City, December to March 1882 to 1886. The lengths of the bars in figure 17 indicate the size of the partial correlation and coefficients. The three diagrams on the left show the relation between mean temperature

Starting point is 06:16:50 and the deaths in our three categories when the interdurnal change of temperature and the relative humidity are held constant and thus eliminated. The three central diagrams show similar coefficients for change of temperature when main temperature and relative humidity are held constant, while the right hand set apply to relative humidity when main temperature and changes of temperature are held constant. When the bars of figure 17 lie above the central line,

Starting point is 06:17:21 the coefficients are positive, that is, a high condition of the weather, such as high humidity, or high temperature is associated with the high death rate. Where the bars are below the central line, the reverse is the case. High temperature, for example, been associated with few deaths. But note that in studying changes of temperature, our purpose is not to discover the effect of a small change compared with that of a large change, regardless of whether the temperature rises or falls.

Starting point is 06:17:49 It is to discover whether the effects of a rise and of a fall are the same or different. Accordingly, the average condition has been counted as that in which there is no change of temperature for one day to the next. A rise at temperature has been given a plus sign, and a fall a negative sign. Hence in the central column of figure 17, a bar above the line means that a high death rate is associated with a rise in temperature, while a bar below the line means that the death rate is high when the temperature falls. The degree of significance of the bars in figure 17 may be judged from the shading. When the bars are lightly shaded, their length is less than three times the probable error. This means that they have little or no significance.

Starting point is 06:18:38 When the light shading reaches its greatest length, that is, when the coefficient is three times the probable error, there is one chance in 22 that a bar of this length would be produced accidentally, even our two sets of figures have no real relation. Suppose for a moment that the death rate and the bit of humidity have no real relationship. Nevertheless, with figures the size of those here used, we should accidentally get a correlation of 0.075, three times a probable error, once in every 22 correlations. The three diagrams on the right of figure 17 depict 45 correlation coefficients.

Starting point is 06:19:18 Hence, mere chance would be likely to give us two that rise as high as, 0.075. What we actually find is to which rise a little above that level. The area is marked by diagonals indicate values between 3 and 4 times the probable error. Now the likelihood that a coefficient of any particular size will be produced accidentally decreases very rapidly as the coefficients become larger. Thus while there is one chance to 22 that a coefficient will be 3 times a probable error. there is only one chance in 142 that it will be four times a proper error. Among the 90 coefficients in the first and second columns of figure 17,

Starting point is 06:20:01 mere chance would not be likely to give more than one coefficient rising to the outer limit of the diagonals, but as a matter of fact we have 11. If the coefficient is five times a probable error, there is only one chance in 1,341 that is due to accident, not to a real relationship. It is six times only one in 19,307, 427, 8, 14,700,000. For all practical purposes, a coefficient 8 times a probable error gives full certainty of a relationship of some sort. In general, we may say that in figure 17 of any similar diagram, the conditions that suggest a relationship are 1, coefficients more than 3 times of probable error. Two, a considerable series of coefficients all having the same side and hence all falling either above or below the central line.

Starting point is 06:20:56 Three, a series of coefficients which systematically change from high values to low or from positive to negative or vice versa. The conditions which are generally agreed to amount practical proof of a relationship are. 1. Individual coefficients which rise to at least 6 times a probable error. 2. Several successive coefficients rise into at least 4 times a problem error. 3, a considerable series of coefficients which systematically and persistently change their values in some orderly sequence, such as from 3 or 4 times the probable error on the plus side to an equal value on the negative side. All three types are represented in figure. We are now ready to interpret that figure.

Starting point is 06:21:39 Bear in mind that the length of the columns indicates the degree of relationship between deaths and weather elements, and has nothing to do with the actual number of deaths. Remember also that when we speak of temperature in what follows, we mean temperature after the effects of relative humidity and interdural change of temperature have been eliminated by means of partial correlations. In similar fashion, relative humidity and changes of temperature mean those two factors individually after the other two have been eliminated. To begin in the upper left-hand corner, the position of the bar, forward A-0 by the central line in dark, A indicates that during the 726 days from December to March in the six years under discussion, high temperature on any particular day tended to be accompanied by a large number of deaths of children under five years of age on that same day. The small size of the bar, however, indicates that this relationship is too small to be considered seriously.

Starting point is 06:22:41 On the other hand, the temperature on any given day had a pronounced relation to the deaths during the next three days. as appears in the heavy black shading of days 1 to 3. High temperature was systematically followed by a low death rate and low temperature by a high death rate. It is much as we are dealing with only a single day's weather and inasmuch as a lightest coefficient, negative 0.167, is 7 times a probable error. The total effect of the main temperature for all days on the deaths among children must be great.

Starting point is 06:23:15 On the fourth day after a given temperature, however, it is practically disappeared. Diagram B suggests that the reaction of older persons to the outside temperature is similar to that of little children. Curiously enough, however, on the day when a given temperature occurs, the effect is stronger than among the children, while on succeeding days the opposite effect is weaker and is somewhat more delayed. Probably the immediate harmful effect of high winter temperature arises from the fact that when the outer air is, is unusually warm for the season, our houses are likely to be kept too warm, especially on the first day of such warmth. On the other hand, when unusually cold days arrive, many houses which have been too warm become cooler,

Starting point is 06:24:01 and that is helpful, but soon the fires are pushed and the old condition of hot stuffy rooms returns. In diagram C, showing the relationship between the mean temperature and the deaths from pneumonia, The most important feature is the fairly regular decline from a moderately high level on the left to a low level on the right. This apparently means that temperatures which are high for the season tend to cause death among Pumonia patients, but have a good effect in preventing other people from contracting the disease, so that death rate from Pumonia falls off after about two weeks.

Starting point is 06:24:38 Further comment on these first three diagrams is unnecessary. They confirm the results obtained in other ways and show that the results obtained in other ways and show the temperature of even a single day plays an appreciable and measurable part in determining the general health of the community. Look now at the middle column of figure 17. This depicts the relationship between the death rate and the change of temperature from one day to the next when the mean temperature and the relative humidity are both eliminated by means of particular correlations.

Starting point is 06:25:09 Among children less than five years old, as appears at the top, a rise of temperature tends to cause many deaths on the day when it occurs and on the succeeding day, while the drop acts in the opposite fashion. So strong is this effect that the largest particular correlation coefficient, 0.2 or 2, is 8.4 times a problem error. As much as there is scarcely one chance in 100 million that so large a coefficient should be accidentally obtained, we may be practically certain that changes of temperature from one day to the next, regardless of the mean temperature, exerts an important effect upon

Starting point is 06:25:46 the health of young children. The suddenness with which this effect comes to an end is not worthy. The portion of diagram D, from the third to the 14th day, is typical of the coefficients obtained when there is no relationship between the two sets of phenomena. Diagram E indicates that among older people, changes of temperature from day to day have almost the same effect as among children, a rise being harmful and a drop-to-year. beneficial. In this case, however, the relationship is not so marked as among the children. The delay is greater and there is a reaction on the fifth day. Thus the harm done by a rise of

Starting point is 06:26:24 temperature, or the good done by a fall, is partially neutralised by effects of the opposite kind a few days later, but the neutralisation is only partial, as appears from the greater size of the shaded areas above and below the zero line. Pumonia patients, diagram F, present another case where effects of opposite types occur at different times. People suffering from this disease are probably harmed somewhat by a rise of temperature on the very day when it happens, and are similarly helped by a fall, but these effects are too slight to be significant. Two days after a given change of temperature, on the contrary,

Starting point is 06:27:03 the pneumonia of patients show a distinct benefit if the change has been toward warmer conditions. They harm by a change in the opposite direction. This occurs regardless of whether the actual means. temperature is higher or low, for that factor has been eliminated by our partial correlations, as has relative humidity. The changes themselves appear to be the effective agent. But how about the relatively high positive correlation of the 11th day in diagram F? There is about one chance in 150 that this is due to accident, whereas there is only one about 50,000 that the larger coefficient of the second day is accidental. Nevertheless, the positive,

Starting point is 06:27:44 Correlation on the 11th day may be significant. If so, it presumably means that a rise of temperature is accompanied by conditions favorable to the development of pneumonia, so that an unusually large number of people die about 11 days afterward. Here again, we appear to have a curious contradiction between the effect of relatively high temperature and the change towards such a temperature. This contrast appears so constantly and consistently, that its reality can scarcely be doubted. One of the clearest and most convincing features of this investigation of daily

Starting point is 06:28:17 changes of temperature is its unequivocal character. In all three diagrams, D, E and F, the high coefficients are either higher or numerous than in the corresponding diagrams of main temperature. A, B, and C. This agrees with several other lines of evidence, such as the sensitiveness of people in monotonous climates in suggesting that variability of temperature, not only from season to season, but from day to day may be almost as important as a mean temperature itself. Such slight evidence is as yet available also suggests that variability in other respects such as sunshine, rainfall, moisture and wind may have an appreciable effect upon health. The emphasis thus given to variability as a distinct factor, apart from the conditions which vary,

Starting point is 06:29:05 is of much significance in connection with changes of climate and the relation of climate to the distribution of civilization, it confirms the conclusions arrived from our study of factories, general death rates, influenza, pneumonia, and operations, and is itself confirmed by strong evidence which is yet to come. Turning now to relative humidity, we find that diagram G is completely negative. During the years in question, the relative humidity of the air had no appreciable effect upon the health of children under five years old in New York. This is true even when the effects of mean temperature and changes of temperature are eliminated. Among older people, diagram H, the same is true so far as any immediate effect is concerned.

Starting point is 06:29:49 For days 0 to 6 have irregular and significant coefficients. From the 6th to the 14th day, after any given condition of relative humidity, however, there is a slight but persistent positive correlation every day. On two days, this rises to almost 4 times a probable error. This suggests that in winter, high humidity may possibly be favorable, to the contraction of diseases from which people die a week or two later. A similar suggestion in respect to influenza has already been discussed. The Pumonia diagram, one, however, has a different aspect.

Starting point is 06:30:24 None of its coefficients are large enough to be significant, by the fact that the first seven are all positive gives a hint that high relative humidity may have a slightly unfrable effect upon Pumonia patients. It is most perplexing to find that different sets of data give different indications as to the relation between atmospheric humidity and health. The present investigation with its almost negative results, but with a slight suggestion that damp air facilitates the transmission of harmful microorganisms, agrees with the experiments of the New York Ventilation Commission,

Starting point is 06:30:56 and with the results obtained by the Committee of the Atmosphere and Man in its work on Influenzer. Opposed to this are the results of what seem to be equally reliable investigations pertaining to deaths after operations, to the death rate from Pumonia by months as is set forth by Greenberg, to Besson's inquiry into the weekly death rate in Paris, and to the monthly death rate where millions of people were studied, as described in world power and evolution. Moreover, a new investigation, shortly to be described,

Starting point is 06:31:27 points even more strongly toward atmospheric humidity as an important agent in promoting health. A possible explanation of this apparent contradiction may be that humidity affects people in two ways. directly through the skin, nerves and lungs, and indirectly through minute organisms that bear a disease. The disease-bearing organisms, being very short-lived, are quickly influenced by variations atmospheric moisture.

Starting point is 06:31:52 Hence the day or two of unusually high relative humidity may be enough to give them an opportunity to produce disease. Man, on the other hand, may be influenced more slowly so that the beneficial effect of moisture upon him becomes apparent, only when he is subjected to moderately moist conditions. conditions for some time. Thus relatively long oscillations in health may arise from the effective atmospheric moisture upon man, and short oscillations for the effect upon the bringers of disease, and the two may easily be of opposite character. We now come to what seems to be a most conclusive study as to the general effect of the

Starting point is 06:32:30 weather upon health. In order to get a comprehensive view of the variations in this effect from place to place, and likewise from season to season, I have made a very much more than the season to season. I've made a fresh investigation of the deaths each month from 1900 to 1915 in 33 cities of the United States. Every city with over 100,000 population in 1910 has been used so far as mortality data are available. Each city in each month of the year has been treated as a separate unit. The January's, February's, and so one being divided to two equal groups on the basis of each of the following climate factors. 1. Mean daily temperature. 2. Mean daily relative humidity.

Starting point is 06:33:14 Average of 8 a.m. and 8pm. 3. Variability or storminess. Number of storms whose centres pass within 200 miles of the given city, allowing double weight to those within 100 miles. 4. Wind. Total number of miles per month. 5 cities only. Data for the wind were investigated only at New York, Baltimore, Chicago. San Luis and San Francisco. The Chicago data are doubtful because the growth of the city appears gradually to have cut off the wind from the Weather Bureau Station and caused an apparent decline in windiness. An example will show how the data were used.

Starting point is 06:33:53 The eight warmest January's in New York average 6.0 Fahrenheit, warmer than the eight is coldest and had fewer deaths by 0.6%. In February, the excessive temperature in the 8 warmest months amounted to 6.5 degrees, and the death rate was 4.1% less than that of the cooler months. In March, the corresponding figures were 6.4 degrees and 9.7%. In April, 3.8 degrees and 4.5%. In May, on the contrary, in excess of 3.5 degrees, in temperature, was accompanied by a death rate, 1.5% greater in the warm months than the cool months. While in July, although the eight warm months averaged only 2.8 degrees above the eight cooler months, the excess in their death rates rose to 14.2%. The use of this method brings out many interesting facts on which we cannot now dwell.

Starting point is 06:34:49 It eliminates entirely all complications due to the seasons. For each month stands by itself and can be compared with any other month. It likewise shows nothing as to the general effect of the seasonal variations of either weather or mortality. Emily shows how the departures of any particular climatic factor, from the normal of that particular month, affect the death rate. Boston, for example, is thus found to be benefited in summer by the coolness of its dampest winds. Damness without coolness is the bane of New Haven in summer.

Starting point is 06:35:24 New York, by reason, partly of its great size and partly of its fine climate, is unusually regular in its responses to the weather. But for some unexplained and possibly at the weather, accidental reason is averse to storms in midsummer as well as in midwinter. Although Baltimore is hot in summer, it suffers little harm from humidity even when that factor runs high. Baltimore is likewise benefited at all seasons if it has more than its usual allowance of storms, while Boston being far north normally has so many storms that is better off during the less stormy months except in summer. Chicago, on the other hand, is benefited by storms except during

Starting point is 06:36:03 the coldest months. It is likewise benefited by high relative humidity except in the autumn, but curiously enough, it is not benefited by high temperature in winter, perhaps because the warm months experience dry southwest winds, bare ground and dust. Figure 18A is displayed on the previous page, excess or deficiency of death rates in months of extreme weather in American cities, 1900 to 1915. Figure 18B is displayed on the previous,

Starting point is 06:36:33 page, excess or deficiency of death rates in months of extreme weather in American cities 1900 to 1915. Somewhat the same is true in Pittsburgh and Denver. Cleveland and San Francisco have climates of such a type that departures from the north produce relatively little effect. Whereas in cities like St. Paul and Minneapolis, in the north and St. Louis and Cincinnati farther south, the effects are much greater. In southerly places like Nashville and Memphis, the effect of departures from the normal weather is especially great.

Starting point is 06:37:07 Presumably it is still greater in the far south, but Atlanta is the only other southern city for which data are available. In figure 18, A and B, the 33 cities have been combined into geographical groups. Each city is weighed according to its population as follows. 100,000 to 200,000 equals 1 to 200,000 to 400,000 equals 2 to 400,000 equals 2 to 1 million equals 3, 100,000 to 200,000 to 200,000 to 100,000 to 1 million equals 2,000 to 1 million equals 3, 1 million to 2 million equals 4, over 2 million equals 5. The curved lines indicate the extent which the death rates in the 8 warmer, moisture or stormier, January, Februarys and so forth, from 1900 to 1915, differed from the corresponding death rates in the 8 cooler, drier, and the stormy January's in autumn months. The figures in the scales beside the diagrams indicate departures in percentage of normals.

Starting point is 06:38:13 The normals are the estimated numbers of deaths that each place would have experienced per month in any given year if the number of deaths change regularly in response to the growth of the city and the improvements in medical practice without regard to weather, seasons, epidemics and so forth. The method of getting the normals is explained in world power and evolution. In figure 18 and the other figures of the same kind, all the curves have been smoothed by the formula. A plus 2b plus C over 4 equals B, which is a common way of eliminating the confusing minor irregularities which arise because of the small number of years

Starting point is 06:38:53 for which data are available. In the figure, the heavily shattered areas mean that the months with relatively high temperature, high humidity, high storminess or high winds, and lower death rates than the months in which the weather factors stood lower. For example, New York, Philadelphia, and New Haven, former group of cities lying within a distance of about one, 150 miles and having similar climates in spite of individual idiosyncrasies.

Starting point is 06:39:22 In the first column of figure 18, diagram B shows that in these cities the months of January, February and especially March are too cold. For each month the death rate in the eight warmest years was from three to five percent lower than in the eighth coldest, as appears from the dark shading. In April the average temperature was about right, for the curve crosses the zero line. In that month the bad effect produced by weather that is a little too cool is balanced by the corresponding effect of high temperature during the same month. As summer advances, the warm months begin to have a disadvantage, as is indicated by the dotted

Starting point is 06:39:59 shading. The eight warmer July's had an average death rate about 6% greater than that at the cooler July's, even in the smooth curve. In the unsmooth curve, this rises to 10.4. In as much of the eight warmest July's averaged only about three degrees warmer than the coolest date, each degree of excessive temperature raised the death rate more than 3%. In passing on to the second column of figure 18, it appears that high relative humidity is beneficial to New York and its neighbors throughout the winter, and especially in

Starting point is 06:40:34 April when an excess of 6% in relative humidity is accompanied by a diminution of 6% in the death rate. During the three summer months, the highest humidity is due harm. The smooth maximum excess of deaths being 4% while the unsmooth figures are 5.8% are accompanied in excess of 6.4% in the relative humidity. The duration of the period when humidity is harmful is short. During the autumn and early winter, the nearness of the curve to the zero line indicates that it makes little difference over those months are relatively dry or moist, perhaps because the general conditions of health are so good that people can resist extremes which might harm them at less favorable seasons.

Starting point is 06:41:17 Nevertheless, the damper rather than the drier months were the best. In the third column of figure 18, the storms of the New York group of cities appear to have less influence than either the temperature or the humidity. In the late winter and spring, the more stormy months were the most healthful. In summer, the less stormy ones had a very slight advantage, too small to be significant. small to be significant. The ultimate gain was like the late winter, but on November and December or like June and July. This particular curve happens to be one where the effect of storms is at a minimum. The most important thing about it is that the dark shading is much more extensive than the light, which means that on the whole the stormiest months were times of better health

Starting point is 06:42:03 than those that were less stormy. In the right-hand column of figure 18, where the effect of the wind is shown, the upper diagram is based only on New York. It is very symmetrical, and indicates that in winter high winds are accompanied by a high death rate, while in summer they are accompanied by a low death rate. The question once arises whether the four types of curves in figure 18 really represent the effect of the individual climatic factors or whether each curve is compounded of the effects of all four factors. For example, are high winds really favourable in summer, or do they merely appear to be so because they are accompanied by low temperature or low humidity or some other favourable condition?

Starting point is 06:42:49 The answer is found is figure 19. The solid curves there are the same as those which we have just been examining for the New York group of cities in figure 18, but applauded a larger vertical scale. The daughter lions are the same curves corrected to allow for the other climatic factors. In making the corrections it was assumed that temperature is the most important. important climate factor and is followed by humidity, storms and wind in this order, for this is what is commonly supposed, and is supported by the investigation here described. Figure 19 is displayed on the page, correction for effect of other climate effectors. The method of making the corrections were as follows.

Starting point is 06:43:32 Knowing how much the temperature and the death rate in the moisture in the moisture differed from those in the dry months. It was easy to determine how much effect a given difference of temperature produces. Since we know the difference in temperature between the moisture and dry months, it is possible to make allowance for this difference month by month and thereby eliminate from the humidity curve the effect of temperature. Where the humidity curve had thus been corrected, the storm curve was corrected in the same way.

Starting point is 06:44:01 On the basis not only of the temperature curve, but of the corrected humidity curve. Next, the humidity curve was corrected to allow for the effect of storms, and the temperature curve to allow for the effect of both storms and humidity. Finally, the wind curve was corrected to allow for variations in all three of the other factors. The result was the dotted lines in Vick-19. At the top of the diagram, the corrected and uncorrected lines showing the effective temperature upon the death rates are practically alike. The next pair of lines, those for humidity,

Starting point is 06:44:33 are almost alike, but allowances for the other factors seem slightly to reduce the importance of humidity in the spring and raise it in summer. In the third pair of lines, the corrections seemed to lower the general level of triple, thus making it appear that storms are a bit more beneficial than appeared at first sight. Finally, the corrected and uncrected curves for the winds are completely different. The good effect in summer has practically disappeared in the corrected curve. If the data for the wind had been available from New Haven and Philadelphia, as well as New York, the smoothing of the wind curve might possibly have been still more complete.

Starting point is 06:45:14 As things now stand, the corrections seem to indicate that in figure 18, in spite of minor details due to other factors, the apparent effects of temperature, humidity, and storms represent approximately the real effects, and will represent them still more closely if a larger a number cities were averaged together as will be done in figure 20. As for the wind, it may be that high winds in winter has some direct effect in raising the death rate, but in summer, practically all of their effect appears to arise from the conditions of temperature, humidity, and storms, of variability which accompany them. Let us return now to figure 18. In the left-hand column, the groups of cities east of the Mississippi behave almost as one would expect.

Starting point is 06:46:03 Except for Rochester and Buffalo, D, which appear to be practically never too hot, all the diagrams are heavily shaded in winter and lightly shed in summer. Thus indicating that the winter is from Tennessee and Northern Georgia to Minneapolis and Boston are too cold, and the summer is too hot for the best health. In the center of this area, to be sure, Group E, Cleveland, Toledo and Detroit, Group F, Pittsburgh, Columbus and and Group G, Atlanta, Nashville and Memphis, show a huge depression in summer, as if the harmful effect of hot weather was somehow inhibited, perhaps because hot winds are dry, so that the bad effects of high humidity are mitigated when the temperature rises. West of the Mississippi, or the groups K2N, suggests that while hot summer weather is generally bad except on the cool Pacific coast, and usually warm winter weather is also often harmful. This is presumably because warm months are generally dry, and our monthly data seem to show that dryness is almost always harmful and cold weather.

Starting point is 06:47:12 That this last statement is true seems to be abundantly verified by the second column in figure 18. Here there is no such equal distribution of heavy and light shading as in the diagrams showing the effect of temperature. On the contrary, almost every individual diagram displays a greater area of heavy. shading than of light, and some of the diagrams such as C, G and K have practically known light shading. In general, the amount of heavy shading, that is, the good effect of atmospheric moisture, increases that one goes from the moisture and cooler parts of the country to those that are warmer and drier. It reaches a maximum in diagram L for Denver and Spokane, the two cities in a list where the atmospheric

Starting point is 06:47:57 moisture is least. This clearly means that in practically all parts of the United States, so far as data are available, and especially in the dry parts, the help for the inhabitants would be materially improved if there were more atmospheric moisture. This clear-cut, and apparently unequivocal result, agrees with the study of deaths set forth in world power and evolution, and with the study of the death rate after operations. The contrasts between these three lines of evidence, on the other hand, and the results of our investigation of daily deaths in New York, to gather the work of the ventilation commission.

Starting point is 06:48:33 On the other, is the reason for our suggestion that humidity has too diverse and opposite effects. It seems to be beneficial in its direct effect, except at temperatures above the optimum and half of its indirect effect through bacteria. Much of what has been said of atmospheric moisture is likewise through storms, as appears in the third column of figure 18. Notice how largely the heavy shading predominates. Note also that it is scarce in northern groups of cities such as B, H and M, but increases as one goes southward until in groups G, J, and especially C, practically every month of the year,

Starting point is 06:49:10 shows a lower death rate when storms are relatively abundant than when there are few. Here, just as in the case of humidity, the regions which have few storms, like those which have little atmospheric moisture, give heavily shaded diagrams because an increase in the number of storms is an advantage to health at practically all seasons. But places like Boston, which are exposed not only to many storms, but to strong oceanic winds, may get too many storms in the winter. The question of the effect of storminess is so important that I've prepared figure 20 to show what happens when stormy periods last several months.

Starting point is 06:49:47 The upper diagram in each case shows the conditions when the storms of a given month are compared with the depths of that month. In the second diagram, the months of the 16 years, using our study, have been grouped into halves according to the number of storms, not only in the month when deaths occurred, but in the preceding month. In the lower diagram, the storminess of three consecutive months has been compared with the deaths in the third month. To begin with Boston, a relatively high degree of storminess lasting only a single month is slightly beneficial in summer, and again curiously enough in winter. but this may be a mere accident due to the shortness of our record. If the stormy period lasts two months, the good effect of storms is much increased. In fact, Boston's health would apparently be distinctly improved if the city could have frequent periods of relatively high storminess

Starting point is 06:50:40 lasting two months during the summer, but not during the late winter. The lightly shaded area in the autumn is so small that it may be accidental. If the periods of storminess last three months, however, Boston gets too much of them and their death rate rises markedly. In other words, Boston seems to lie close to the fruition level where it gets neither too many nor too few storms in the long run, although in the more extreme periods it gets too many, just as in milder periods is not good enough. Contrast Boston with Chicago.

Starting point is 06:51:13 In figure 20, a single month of more than the average storminess helps Chicago a good deal during all seasons except midwinter. But two successive months of unusual storminess, and especially three, do harm at practically all seasons. In other words, an increase in storminess hurt Chicago more than Boston. Nevertheless, both cities evidently profit greatly by the fact that they have many storms, as appears when they are compared with cities farther south. In New York, for example, figure 20 shows that increased storminess during periods of more than one month is beneficial in summer but not in winter, while Seattle is benefited by increased and prolonged storminess at practically all seasons. This simply means that New York, with less severe

Starting point is 06:51:59 storms than Chicago or Boston, would profit by a mild increase in storminess. On the other hand, Seattle is far less storminess than the other cities would be better off to have decidedly more. Figure 20 is displayed on the page, excess of deficiency of deaths in relation to stormy periods lasting one month, upper diagrams, two months middle, and three months lower, 1915. At the bottom of figure 20, Baltimore and Washington, which are treated as a single unit, and Memphis on the Mississippi River in Tennessee presents still a third type. At all seasons, their stormiest months are the most helpful, for these cities lie toward the southern edge of the storm belt. They have far less stormy weather than New York, Chicago and Boston, but more than Seattle.

Starting point is 06:52:48 During the years under discussion, all these places were especially stormy in March. They had benefited by prolonged periods of storminess in summer and autumn, but cannot stand such periods in the winter and spring. Too much emphasis must not be placed on the minor details of any of the diagrams in figure 20, especially that of a small city like Memphis, for the number of years included in our data is small. Nevertheless, there seems to be little question that storminess has an important effect upon health. In a belt of country extending from New York to Boston, westward to Chicago, the beneficial effects of storminess are greatest. To the north of that belt, increased storminess appears to have a harmful effect upon health. To the south, the present degree of storminess is not enough, on the average, and a high degree regularly causes an improvement in health at most seasons.

Starting point is 06:53:38 In concluding this chapter, let us turn to figure 21. Here the data for all of our 33 American cities have been combined into a single diagram. This shows the effect produced by an unusually high condition of any one of the four climatic factors upon the death rate in the whole northern United States, together with the Pacific Coast. In using such a large area, there is great opportunity for opposed conditions in different regions to cancel one another. but this cancellation is far from complete. Before we interpret figure 21, let us consider for a moment the degree to which the diagrams may be the result of chance. In most such cases, it is accustomed for mathematicians to compute the prol error by means of a formula.

Starting point is 06:54:24 Our method, however, whereby cities are weighted according to their population, and the departures are reckoned from normals, which pertain to the year instead of the individual months, would cause such computations to take an excessive amount of form. time. Accordingly, I have calculated the data for four months exactly as in the diagrams, except that pure chance has been allowed to control the choice of months for each of the two groups of eight years, into which the 16 years have been divided. The smooth results for comparison with figure 21 are January, 0.47, April, 0.40, July 0.72, October, 0.79. In each of the

Starting point is 06:55:04 four diagrams, the extremes are four to seven times. as great as the accidental variations thus obtained. This fact together with the systematic character of the results makes it practically certain that we are dealing with real relationships and not with accidental coincidences. Figure 21 is displayed on the page, net effect of weather in the United States. If this be accepted, our diagrams in Figure 21 show that in the United States as a whole,

Starting point is 06:55:31 excluding the South except in California, a certain amount of harm is done to health in winter by low temperature. low temperature, but not so much as one would expect. The high temperatures of summer do much more harm. The effects of the wind seem to be very clear, but are probably due largely to the conditions of temperature, humidity and storminess, which accompany the winds. Now for the most surprising fact, lack of moisture does almost as much harm to the United States in winter as does low temperature, while in the spring it does only a little less than does high temperature in summer. At all seasons, the United States as a whole,

Starting point is 06:56:09 amid the parts for which we have no data, as poorer health in unusually dry weather than in that which is unusually moist. Almost the same thing is true of storms. The country is better off when storminess is unusually abundant, except in the late fall. In figure 21, the average departures from the zero line, regardless of whether the departures are positive or negative,

Starting point is 06:56:31 are as follows. Temperature, 4.0.09%, relative humidity 3.96 and storminess 3.60. These figures seem to represent approximately the relative importance of the three great climatic factors. Thus in spite of certain puzzling facts as to humidity, the general result of our study of health in relation to the weather is to confirm the results of our previous study of efficiency in factories. The same conditions of temperature, humidity and variability which caused people to work quickly or slowly in the ordinary affairs of life seem also to cause her health to be good or poor. End of Section 9. Section 10 of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Libravox according, or Libravox Accordings in the public domain.

Starting point is 06:57:30 For more information or to volunteer, please visit Librox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 10. The Ideal Climate We are frequently told that the Riviera or Southern California has an ideal climate. Florida lays claim to it in winter, the Alps and Summer. Two of the few regions which rarely assert their preeminence in this respect are Boston with its east winds and London with its fogs. Yet in many ways they have a strong claim to high rank. It all depends upon what we mean by ideal. For rest and recreation, a warm equitable climate is down.

Starting point is 06:58:07 helpless, most delightful. For a fishing or camping trip, something quite different is desirable. For most people, the really essential thing in life is the ordinary work of every day. Hence the climate which is best for work may in the long run claim to be the most nearly ideal. But such climates are also the ones that are best for health. Hence they're the ones which people will ultimately choose in large numbers. The few disagreeable features at certain seasons are no worse than the shiver. at the beginning of a cold plunge. On the basis of both work and health, the best climate would apparently be one in which the main temperature

Starting point is 06:58:45 rarely falls below the mental optimum of perhaps 38 degrees, or rises above the physical optimum of about 64 degrees. From this point of view, the most ideal conditions would seem to be found where the temperature for the year as a whole averages not far from 51 degrees, as at London, Paris, New York and Picking. In four chief portions of the globe, the winter temperature averages not far from 38 degrees, and that is summer not far from 64 degrees. The first of these is England.

Starting point is 06:59:18 At London, the thermometer averages 38 degrees in January and 63 degrees in July, while at Liverpool, the figures are 39 degrees and 60 degrees. If an average of 51 degrees at all seasons were ideal, southwestern island, with a range of about 45 degrees to, 59 degrees and the Hebrides from 42 degrees to 55 degrees would be more ideal than London. On the continent where the seasonal variation is greater than in Britain, the length of the relatively unfavorable periods with temperatures above 65 degrees and below 38 degrees also increases. A second region where the temperature of conditions approach the ideal is the Pacific coast of the northern United States and southern British Columbia. Seattle, averaging 39 degrees in January and 64 degrees in July, has practically the same temperature as London.

Starting point is 07:00:10 Southward the seasonal range decreases. San Francisco averaging 49 degrees in January and 59 degrees in September, after the cool summer fogs have passed away, may claim in many ways to be ideal. Still farther south, the temperatures of Los Angeles and San Diego, 53 degrees and 54 degrees in January, and 69 degrees in August. fluctuate about the physical optimum and it would be ideal for physical activity if mean temperature or the only criterion. The mental optimum, however, is lower than the temperature. Of all except the unusually cold days, the variations from day to day are rare. A short distance inland, the California climate becomes less favorable than on the coast. For the average in summer at Fresno, for example, is 82 degrees, even though the heat is mitigated by low humidity, and continuance of such high temperature causes people to feel indisposed to activity.

Starting point is 07:01:06 England and the Pacific Coast owe their climatic excellence, largely to the fact that ocean winds from the west blow freely over them. Two regions in the southern hemisphere enjoy the same advantage, namely New Zealand and part of South America, including southern Chile and portions of Patagonia. We have to think of these South American regions as sparsely settled places of little importance. This is true for the present, but it's not because the climate prevents activity. The climate, to be sure, is a drawback. But the harmful feature is not the temperature, but the rainfall. Plants not man are the chief sufferers. Unlike our other three regions, this part of the world has a deficient rainfall except in the west,

Starting point is 07:01:51 and their high mountains hinder a settlement. In spite of this, the few small portions of Patagonia that permit profitable agriculture are making progress and would doubtless do so rapidly if not hampered by remoteness, by the absence of railroads and by the social handicap of their Aborigines. It must be inferred that the climates of Patagonia, New Zealand, England and the Pacific coast of the United States are necessarily ideal. Main temperature is not the only important factor. Among other things, relative to humidity. must be considered. The deficiency of moisture in Patagonia not only is disastrous economically, but to judge from the preceding studies it lessens man's energy. A similar effect is produced by excess of moisture and thus harm is done in Ireland and Western Scotland, which would otherwise be almost as fortunate as England. New Zealand, the Central Pacific Coast of North

Starting point is 07:02:47 America and England itself are sometimes unduly damp for long periods, but nevertheless enjoy relative humidity of not far from 70% much of the time. Other regions, however, such as the eastern United States and Central Europe, seem to be more favoured in this respect. The change of temperature from day to day, as we have seen, seems to be as important as relative humidity and must accordingly be considered more fully. Its effect on human activity seems to be second only to that to the mean temperature of the seasons. The intensity and number of daily changes depend upon two chief factors. First, the range of temperature from the warmest to the coldest part of the year,

Starting point is 07:03:29 and second, the number of cyclonic storms, when the winters are cold and the summer's hot. The changes from day to day are also extreme. For instance, in the Dakotas with the mean temperatures of January and July differ by 60 degrees Fahrenheit, a change of equal magnitude may take place in 24 hours. On the other hand, in a place like the Congo, with a difference between the coldest and warmest months is only three or four degrees, the days are correspondingly uniform. The whole matter is illustrated by maps in many physical geographies and in such publications as Bartholmew's metrological atlas. The parts of the world where the change of seasons favors are highly advantageous degree of change from

Starting point is 07:04:14 one day to the next include most of North America, but omit Florida, the Pacific coast of the United States, and the regions from the Mexican border southward. All of Central and Eastern Europe is also included except parts of Italy and Greece. A large area in North Africa and a small area in the south of that continent also rank high, as do Central Australia and the part of South America which includes Central Argentina. Finally, all except the southern parts of Asia lie within the high area. Thus this particular favourable condition occurs, not only in many regions whose climate is also good from other standpoints, but in a much of the most of the region. but in a much larger number whose general climatic conditions are decidedly unfavorable. This is not surprising, for the beneficial effect of pronounced changes of temperature from day to day

Starting point is 07:05:04 is often nullified by great heat in summer or extreme cold or winter. Moreover, the seasonal range of temperature forms only one or the two factors which determined the amount of stimulation derived from changes of temperature from day to day. The other factor is a number of cyclonic storms. By this, as has already been explained, we mean the ordinary storms which produce our changes of weather from day to day in the United States and Europe. Probably the storms are more important than the range of temperature from season to season, for they bring rain, humidity, changes in the winds and all sorts of stimulating variations. The world's stormiest region, so far as known, includes a Great Lakes region of the United States and southern Canada. Around this centre there is an area of great storminess extending southward approximately to Maryland in Kansas

Starting point is 07:05:58 and northwestward through the Dakotas to Alberta eastward it includes New England and the maritime provinces while northward quickly disappears To the south the storminess diminishes gradually So that Florida has a moderate degree of variability in winter but not in summer Southern California is the least stormy part of the United States In Europe, the various stormy regions include Britain, most of France, Germany, parts of Scandinavia, and the northern part of Italy, together with Western Austria and the Baltic region. In Asia, Japan is the only place where cyclonic storms are at all numerous.

Starting point is 07:06:38 The lands of the southern hemisphere generally have few storms. New Zealand is a chief exception, although they do not cause such great changes of temperature as in America and Europe. The extreme southern tip of South America is likewise stormy, but its storms do not cause much variability. On the contrary, they give rise to a monotony of winds and clouds, which is extremely deadening. According to the testimony of those who have lived in such places as Teia del Foucault or the Falkland Islands, farther north in central Argentina, there is a moderate number of storms, comparable to those in the southern United States, and their effect is distinctly favorable. We are now prepared to estimate the relative stimulating power of the various climates of the world.

Starting point is 07:07:23 In England, for example, the mean temperature of the seasons and the degree of storminess are both highly favourable, while the seasonal changes are only moderate. Germany is above medium in temperature and high in seasonal changes in storminess. In this respect, it resembles in northeastern United States and southern Canada. Japan is similar, except that it is somewhat too warm and damp. The coast of British Columbia and of the neighbouring states is highly favourable in mean temperature, and medium and storminess and seasonal changes. Around San Francisco, the mean temperature is still better, but both seasonal changes in storms are mild. In compensation for this, however, there are frequent changes of temperature because fogs blow in from the ocean,

Starting point is 07:08:10 and are quickly succeeded by the warm, bright weather, which generally characterises the interior. Farther south, where the fog sees, their conditions become less favourable from the point of view of the changes from one day to another, although the mean temperature of the seasons still remains advantageous. The chief defect of the climate of the California coast is that it is too uniformly stimulating. Perhaps the constant activity which it incites may be a factor in causing nervous disorders. What allows is made for the fact that California's urban population is relatively smaller than that of states like Massachusetts and New York, insanity appears to be even more prevalent than in those states. Moreover, the cities of the California coast at the highest rate of suicide.

Starting point is 07:08:57 1922, four California cities held the list in suicides, the number per 100,000 population being San Diego, 47.8, Sacramento, 37.9, San Francisco, 30.4, and Los Angeles, 30.3. against about 15 in the eastern cities. Possibly these facts may be connected with a constant stimulation of the favorable temperature and a lack of relaxation through variations from season to season and from day to day, although other factors must also play a part. The people of California may perhaps be likened to horses

Starting point is 07:09:32 which are urged to the limit so that some of them become unduly tired and break down. In the same way, the people of the eastern and central United States are more nervous and active than those of Europe, but not necessarily more efficient, because there are still different climatic handicaps. They are alternately stimulated and relaxed by frequent changes from day to day, and in this unlike horses that are well driven. In the spring and autumn, however, the combined effect of ideal temperature

Starting point is 07:10:03 and highly invigorating daily changes spurs them to an astonishing degree of effort. Then comes a hot summer or the cold winter, either of which is debilitating. people do not diminish their activity at once especially in the winter they draw on their nervous energy and thus exhaust themselves they are like horses which pull on the bit and when urged a little break into a run straining themselves by their extreme speed then they are pulled up so suddenly that they are thrown back on their haunches and injured in germany somewhat the same conditions prevail although not to so great an extent england apparently comes nearer to the the ideal than almost any other place. The climate is stimulating at all times both by reason of abundant storms and because of a moderate seasonal range. It never, however, reaches such extremes as to induce the nervous tension which prevail so largely in the United States. In strong contrast to these highly favourable regions are such places as the centre of Asia, where the

Starting point is 07:11:07 winters are depressingly cold and the summer is unduly hot. The range from season to season is apparently helpful, but its good effects are largely nullified by the infrequency of storms. Day succeeds day with no apparent change in the desert of Takla Makan in Chinese Turkestan in the fall of 1905. I found that one of the most surprising features was a way in which winter came upon us unawares. Each morning the thermometer stood a trifle lower than the preceding morning, but there was never any change such as that which we so often experience in America when their first severe frost suddenly comes out of a series of days as warm as summer. Frost at last began to prevail at night, but not until we found the water frozen hard in the morning,

Starting point is 07:11:55 do we realise that winter was upon us. So it goes month after month, with deadening monotony. When a storm does come, the change is often much more extreme than in more oceanic regions. It is frequently so great that its value as the stimulus is much diminished. Tropical regions suffer even greater disadvantages than do places like the centre of Asia. Not only is a temperature unfavourably high, but there are practically no cyclonic storms except in portions where a few hurricanes occur each year. Thunder storms, to be sure, are abundant, but they rarely bring any important change of temperature. Moreover, the seasonal range from the warmest to the coldest month is generally less than the difference between day and night. Day after day displays no appreciable variation from its predecessor.

Starting point is 07:12:47 The uniformity of the climate seems to be more deadly than its heat. Such uniformity, perhaps as much as the high temperature and high humidity, may be one of the most potent causes of the physical debility which affects so many white men within the tropics, and which manifests itself in weaknesses such as drunkenness, immorality, anger and laziness. Even in tropical highlands, the same deadening monotony prevails. although to a less degree than in the lowlands. Such monotony is perhaps the condition which will do most to prevent the white man from living there permanently for generation after generation.

Starting point is 07:13:23 His general health may not seem to suffer, but if he works hard, he is in great danger of breaking down nervously. The temperature of the high lands may be highly stimulating. There are many places where the main temperature during every month in the year is within a few degrees of the physical or mental optimum, or of their average. At Crito in Ecuador, for example, the coldest month, November, averages 54.3 Fahrenheit, and the warmest months, February and September, 55 degrees. Nowhere within the tropics, however, are there any regions which enjoyed the physical optimum at one season and the mental optimum at another?

Starting point is 07:14:03 If we are justified in associating a high rate of insanity on both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States with the peculiar climatic conditions, We should expect that white men in tropical regions and high altitudes would suffer still more in the same way or else would become inert, but no figures seem to be available to determine this point. We might proceed to discuss scores of ways in which knowledge of the exact effects of climate may assist in the understanding of historic events or helping guiding future development. As a step in this direction, let us construct a map of the world showing the degree of energy which we should expect among normal Europe. in various regions on the basis of climate. This map will be based entirely on our studies of work among factory operatives and students, and I shall leave the description of an unchanged for the first edition of this book, except for the correction of an error.

Starting point is 07:14:56 Later we shall test this map of climatic energy by one of climatic health, based on our studies for morality and disease. Both maps are determined by 1, the mean temperature month by month, 2, the amount of change from one day to another, and 3, the map of change from 1 day to another, and three the relative humidity. The conditions would prevail various seasons in the eastern United States duplicate those for almost every portion of the globe. There are hot dry days like those of the Sahar, hot damp days like those in the Amazon forests, cold days like those of the great ice sheet of Greenland, and days of almost every

Starting point is 07:15:31 other description. At this point we must make an assumption which cannot be tested until vastly more data have been collected. Let us assume that the continuance of a given condition produces the same effect as its temporary occurrence. For example, in Connecticut, our measurements of the effect of days, having a mean temperature of 75 degrees, are based on occasional days scattered through the summers of several years. Only in rare cases do four or five days of such extreme temperature follow in succession without interruption by more moderate weather. The actual figures show that the first hot day does not greatly diminish people's energy. for the human body is able to resist for a while and to carry the impetus of previous good conditions into the first part of a bad period.

Starting point is 07:16:20 After two or three days, however, the heat takes hold on people and makes them inefficient, or even causes some to collapse. If such weather continued for months, we should become somewhat accustomed to it, and the period of collapse would be passed. Just what the rate of work would then be, we cannot yet determine. It would almost certainly be slower than on the first hot day, but it would probably be faster than on the third or fourth. Because of this uncertainty, we're not obliged for the present to assume that it would be equal to the average of a number of first days and a much smaller number of second, third, fourth and so on. Having made this assumption, but recognizing that it needs testing, we may go on to construct our map. We must remember that it is not supposed to be a map of the actual energy displayed by the people of various places, but of the energy that we should expect among Europeans they lived in these places,

Starting point is 07:17:17 and were influenced as are the people of the Eastern United States. In making such a map, it is fortunate that the most important factor is also the one most carefully tabulated by climatologists, and for which our investigations of energy give the most unequivocal results. The mean temperature for every month in the year is given for about 1,100 stations in all parts of the world enhance climatality. The third curve from the top in figure 10, it will be remembered, shows the average efficiency which would be expected at a given temperature on the basis of the work of factory operatives in Connecticut to New York. A table inserted as an appendix to this book shows the value for each degree of temperature according to the centigrade scale. the maximum being record as 100 at a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius or a 59 degrees Fahrenheit. To determine the effect of mean temperature upon human activity,

Starting point is 07:18:17 we simply take from hand the mean temperature of each month and then from the table in the appendix or from the curve in figure 10 find the corresponding relative efficiency. Then we add the values for all the months. If every month had an average temperature of 59 degrees with a corresponding relative efficiency of 100, the efficiency of the place in question would be 1,200. As a matter of fact, this is never reached, but London stands at 1,196. San Francisco at 1,198.6, and Quinto inucador, at 1,198.9.9. The worst place is Maseau, near the southern end of the Red Sea, where the figure is 1,070.

Starting point is 07:19:03 The next process in constructing a map of climatic energy is to determine the effective changes of temperature from day to day. Unfortunately, exact statistics are not available in most regions, and we are obliged to employ an approximation. Since changes from day to day depend chiefly upon the seasonal range of temperature and the number of storms, I have combined the two, giving equal weight to each, and giving the two together approximately one-half the weight assigned to seasonal temperature. That is, the difference between Quito and Masua, as stated in the last paragraph, is 128.9. This represents the maximum effect of the seasons so far as the average temperature is concerned. The maximum effect of the seasons as far as changes from day to day are concerned is reckoned as 30, and the maximum effect of storminess on the same basis is also reckoned as 30.

Starting point is 07:19:56 Since highly extreme conditions are not favourable, I have assumed that no seasonal change beyond 30 degrees Celsius or 54 degrees Fahrenheit is of value, and also that changes below minus 7 degrees Celsius, 19.14 Fahrenheit, or above 23 degrees Celsius, 73.4 Fahrenheit, or have no value. In other words, if the range from the mean temperature of the coldest to the warmest month is from below minus 7 degrees Celsius to above 23 degrees Celsius, is recognized having a value of 30, just as it would be if minus 7.7. degrees with the lowest point and 23 degrees the highest.

Starting point is 07:20:33 If the range should be from 4 degrees Celsius to 16 degrees Celsius, it would be broken as having a value of 12. While if it were from 20 degrees Celsius to 28 degrees Celsius, the value would be only 3 because the extremely hot weather above 23 degrees would scarcely be stimulating even if there were slight changes from day to day. In the same way, extreme storminess does not produce an effect in proportion to the number of storms, one storm may succeed another so rapidly that the weather sees it to have sufficient variety and becomes dull and lowering all the time.

Starting point is 07:21:07 This is the case of Cape Horn and also in certain parts of the North American Great Lakes region in winter. Accordingly, a storminess of 20 Centres per year according to columnar scale which means far more than 20 storms is reckoned as the optimum. Grutter storminess is held to have the same stimulus value is 20 centaurs, while everything lowers counted proportionately. The whole matter is so technical that it cannot be understood without detailed explanations. These are now unnecessary, since the very simple method to be described surely gives an almost identical but more accurate map. Humidity has not been considered, because the necessary figures are not available. In most of

Starting point is 07:21:51 the cooler parts of the world, it would make little difference, although a few unduly damp places like island or excessively dry regions like Chinese Turkestan would be lower than now appears. The chief difference would be in the warm portions of the world. Agra in northern India, for instance, now has a lower rank than Bombay and Calcutta, but if allowance were made for humidity, this would probably be reversed. For Agra is pleasantly dry much of the year. The same reverse would probably occur between dry Khartoum and wet Equatorville on the Congo.

Starting point is 07:22:25 Arizona and other desert portions of the United States would also make a better appearance than on the present map. It must not be forgotten, however, there are data for New England show that extreme dryness does more harm than extreme humidity. This, however, does not apply to high temperatures, under such conditions great humidity is undoubtedly most debilitating. Yet even when the air is hot, it may be too dry. In such a place is Death Valley in summer, where the thermometer at 100 degrees, 200, 35 degrees in the shade. It is almost impossible to drink enough water to preserve normal physiological conditions. Even a brief period of physical activity gives rise to much discomfort and people who stay through the summer are in danger of suffering permanent injury to health. Our knowledge

Starting point is 07:23:12 of the effect of both extreme humidity and extreme dryness is unfortunately still qualitative rather than quantitative. Someday, however, exact figures for all the various climatic elements will be obtainable, and we shall construct a map showing the actual efficiency to be expected in every part of the world. It will be so accurate that the manufacturer, for example, who contemplates establishing a factory, will be able to determine the precise efficiency of labour in the different places which he has in mind, and can put the matter to dollars and cents for comparison with the cost of transportation, raw materials and other factors. Meanwhile, our map makes no claim to be more than a first approximation to the truth.

Starting point is 07:23:52 Therefore, no maps of individual continents are now presented, but merely a map of the world. Figure 22 at the United States, Figure 34. In preparing these, the figures for hand stations have been placed on the maps, that a line has been drawn to include all the places falling not more than 25 points below the possible maximum. These are ranked as very high and a shaded black. A second line includes places falling from 25 to 50 below the maximum, and the area thus delimited is ranked as high, and shaded with heavy black lines.

Starting point is 07:24:26 The next division, indicated by light lines, is ranked as medium, and the values range from 50 to 75 blocks maximum. The area shaded with thickly scattered spots includes places ranging from 75 to 115 below maximum, and is counted as low. The fifth division, shaded with widely scattered spots, is very low, and ranges from much than 15 to 155. Finally the hot desert areas which fall below 155 are left unshaded, but if humidity were considered they would probably rank as high as the wet parts of the tropics. Let us now make a similar map on the basis of health. For this purpose I have used the climatic graph for the eastern

Starting point is 07:25:07 United States as given a world power and evolution. Each column, each horizontal line of the original climate graph, was plotted, smooth and prolonged to the necessary limits of temperature or humidity where these exceeded those actually occurring in the eastern United States. It was assumed that a temperature of 100% and a relative humidity of 100% would speedily cause death, and that a mean temperature 1 to 20 degrees for day and night, even when the lowest relative humidity would ultimately be fatal. From the smooth data thus prepared, the departures of the death rate from the normal, and any combination of temperature and humidity can be determined.

Starting point is 07:25:48 On the basis the data previously given, it was assumed that the effect of variability is approximately equal to that of temperature or humidity. Since the best degree of variability seems to be about 21 storm centers per year according to a columnar's scale, this number was counted as the optimum. It was assumed that places having this degree of storminess, or more, have an average in health, able to one half of that due to temperature and humidity combined. This combined effect was measured by the difference between the two extremes of Yuma. 7.8% above normal, and San Diego, 6.3% below normal.

Starting point is 07:26:24 Although equal importance is thus assigned to temperature, humidity and storminess in the United States, the importance of storms for the world as a whole amounts to only about one-fourth, that of the other two combined. Unfortunately, the data as to relative of humidity are scanty and lack uniformity. Excellent and uniform figures, however, are available for the United States in India, and less satisfactory figures for Russia and Siberia. These indicate that if complete data were available, a map of climatic energy on the basis of the effect of the weather or on health in the United States

Starting point is 07:26:57 would closely resemble the one based on factory work, as may be seen by comparing figures 34 and 36. Hence in the absence of good data as to humidity, we may for the present use the map of climatic energy based on factory work, figure 22. The similarity of this map to the Indian, Siberian and American portions of the map Basinor Data for Health and the weather in the United States goes far toward proving its general reliability.

Starting point is 07:27:26 The most noticeable feature of Figure 22 is two large black areas of very high energy United States and Southern Canada on the one hand and in Western Europe on the other. Each is surrounded by a heavily shaded high area of large extent. One lies chiefly in Japan. It is shown as extending it into Korea. But the correctness of this is doubtful, for the records of storms in that region are imperfect. The second lies chiefly in New Zealand, but extends into Australia. The records of storms in this region have been published less fully than in Europe and America, but the general appearance of the map seems to be approximately correct.

Starting point is 07:28:05 The third of the minor high areas is located in the southern part of South America. The records here are very imperfect, at the extent of the high areas doubtful. The reason for this uncertainty is not only that reliable records of storms are not abundant, but that the available data do not enable us to determine how much change from day to day is caused by the average storm. The amount of change must be slight compared with that experienced under similar circumstances in North America and Eurasia, because no part of the southern end of South America is far from the ocean. The fourth of the minor high areas lies along the Pacific coast of North America.

Starting point is 07:28:45 As already stated, its southern portion owes its character not to storms or seasonal changes but to frequent breezes blowing in from the ocean. It extends only a short distance inland and is too narrow to be prominent on the small scale maps of this volume. In the far north, human energy appears to decline more than would be expected.

Starting point is 07:29:07 We know that population is scanty and civilization low, but we commonly ascribe this to the difficulties of agriculture. They all can be demanded of people who must get a living by hunting and fishing. From the map, however, it appears that even if other circumstances were favourable, we should not look for any great achievements. This accords with the slow, inefficient character of the Eskimos, and of the Osteaks and other inhabitants of northern Siberia.

Starting point is 07:29:35 Grandfell in his book on Laborador says that the Eskimo cannot compare, pair with a newfoundland white fishermen for perseverance and snap. And Eskimo does not get one fish for the others ten. This happens even when the Eskimo is in his native habitat, and is doing work to which he has been trained from childhood. Racial adherents may have much to do with this, but the testimony of white men is that, after long stay in the Arctic, they themselves lose ambition and energy. At the other extreme of climate, the regions within 30 degrees of the equator seem to be

Starting point is 07:30:10 characterized by essentially the conditions that we should expect. The status of the highlands is striking. A high degree of energy among white men will not be expected permanently in any of them. We are often told that the climate of tropical highlands is as fine as any in the world. Not infrequently people are urged to colonize much regions. In book after book we read that there is not the slightest reason why the white man should not live there as well as at home. I do not assert that this may not be possible. In fact, I strongly hope that some day will come to pass.

Starting point is 07:30:45 Nevertheless, our map seems to indicate that previous to any such desirable consummation, we must greatly increase our knowledge of how to adapt ourselves to nature, and especially of how to set physical types, which are capable of preserving their own health and raising children in spite of the monster's climate. At present, while the white man may learn to preserve his health in tropical regions, he can scarcely expect to retain the vigor which he displays in the more favoured parts of Europe. The most unexpected feature of the map is a diminution of energy, as one proceeds eastward, from Western Europe to Central Asia.

Starting point is 07:31:21 In the deserts of Turkestan and Mongolia, and especially in the Tibetan highland, the map should probably show lower conditions than are actually depicted. But as records are not available, the medium shunning has been extended across the whole of the unknown area. Before making the studies he described, I should have said that a man in Siberia could be as efficient as in far western Russia in the same latitude. Yet the Baltic provinces are very high in climatic energy, while eastward there is a steady decline until any medium conditions are reached. The reason is readily apparent. In the first place, the Siberian winter is colder and longer than that to the region to the Baltic Sea. More important than this, however, is a decline in storminess as one passes eastward across Russia into Siberia. The cyclonic centres of low pressure, which constitute storms, are either broken up when they approach Asia and winter,

Starting point is 07:32:13 or else swing out toward the sea to avoid the great area of high barometric pressure, which lies over the continent during the cold season. Hence during midwinter, the far interior is characterized by clear and extremely cold weather, not hard to bear, but steadily be numbing. In the spring and autumn, on the other hand, storms are fairly frequent and are often of most terrific intensity. The Burrans, as they are called, are even worse than our Western blizzards, which are the same thing under another name. They destroy cattle and horses by the thousand, and human beings often perish within hundred yards of their houses. Only when the Burans at an end and the milder storms the late spring and summer prevail, does Siberia enjoy a highly stimulating climate.

Starting point is 07:32:59 Only when the Burans are at an end and the milder storms of the late spring and summer prevail does Siberia enjoy a highly stimulating climate. The conditions just described afford an interesting commentary on the common idea that the plans of Siberia are to be the scene of a wonderful development of European civilization over the next few centuries. I formally shared this opinion, but I've now been obliged to modify it. While this chapter was being written, I spoke of this change of opinion to a Russian friend who has come to America for the sake of greater freedom.

Starting point is 07:33:36 Yes, he said, that is just what the exiles say. I have many friends who are exiles. When they are sent to Siberia, they take books with them and expect to do much work in writing and along other lines. Some plan to carry on linguistic studies, and some to make various other kinds of scientific investigations, but they almost never do it. They say that at first they begin to work with great vigor, but after a year or two their energy declines. They have the desire to work, but did not seem to do so. They attribute this to being

Starting point is 07:34:08 so far from home, and to the lack of stimulating contact with civilization. I think there may be more to it than that, for they seem to lose of energy. Nansen in his fine book, through Siberia, the land of the future, emphasizes his point. He frequently speaks to the slow and inertia which he encountered. Here, per acre, the Siberians, raised far smaller crops than the Norwegians, and the main reason assigned by Dancin as lack of care, forethought, and energy in cultivating and fertilizing the soil. There is no hurry here, he says. Siberia is still a country that had a superabundance of time, as of everything else. They may think themselves lucky for having so far escaped the nervous stress that we know too well in Europe.

Starting point is 07:34:53 He also quotes Rodashev, one of the most enlightened members of the Duma, who sums up his impressions of a journey in Siberia with a statement that the Siberians are a people without enterprise or initiative. Yet the vast body of Russians in Siberia consists of pioneers who voluntarily went to the new country.

Starting point is 07:35:13 The mere fact that they broke old ties and made the hard journey into the wilderness bespeaks more than the usual degree of energy and initiative. Similar people in the United States and Canada display great activity. In Siberia, the climate seems to damp their vigour. All this suggests that the old Russian autocracy accomplished its purpose more fully than it realized. It not only exiled many of its most thoughtful and active people, but sent them to a place where not only do the isolation and highships diminish their power, but where nature insidiously accomplishes exactly

Starting point is 07:35:47 the kind of repression that the authority's desire. From the standpoint of climate, without respect to the many other factors which may cause quite other results. The relative positions of Russia and Siberia do not seem likely to change. Both, we may rightly hope, are destined to advance far beyond their present position. But while there is reason to think that Western Russia may approach the standard of Western Europe, Siberia suffers from a handicap which may never let her overtake the Baltic regions on the west of the Great Northern Republic. Turning to China, we find that the summers are often debilitatingly hot, with a steady damp heap that is apt to be drying.

Starting point is 07:36:30 The winter is on the other hand, by no means so long as in Siberia nor so severe. Yet they are far worse than in Western Europe and are as bad at any part of United States. Cold waves often sweep down from the north and are so severe that instead of being stimulants, they are depressing in regions like Peking. In the south, however, they are beneficial. Everywhere cyclonic storms are rare, so there is no stimulus of great importance from the source. This is one of the chief reasons why China does not stand high on the energy map. The northern parts of the country are more favoured than those in the south or in the far interior, but the difference is not great.

Starting point is 07:37:14 Indeed, the uniformity of all parts is surprising. The disadvantages of high-taleigh, temperature in the south abound by those of low in the north. If China were part of a smaller continent, her nearness to the moderating influence of the sea, would help her much more than is now the case. All through the winter, she is under the benumbing control of the vast continent to the west, which still at the sends out severe cold waves, but prevents the passage of storms. Japan, on the contrary, does not suffer so much in this way. Extremes of temperature are milder than in China,

Starting point is 07:37:47 China, and stimulating storms are frequent. The greatest drawback is a long period of hot, damp weather and summer. Nevertheless, she stands high. Here we must bring our review of the map of climatic energy to a close. We shall come back to it again, while we have studied the distribution of civilization. End of Section 10. Section 11. Of Civilization and Climate by Hillsworth Huntington.

Starting point is 07:38:20 This is Librevox recording, or Librox's Accordings from the public domain. For more information or volunteer, please visit Libravox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 11 The Distribution of Civilization Downless the reader has already noticed the striking resemblance between the distribution of climatic energy and of civilization. Look again at figure 22 and see how the black areas agree with the places of highest culture.

Starting point is 07:38:49 In view of this, it seems advisable to construct a map of civilization to serve as a standard of reference. Only two methods appear feasible. One is by statistics, the other on the basis of opinion. Both present grave difficulties. The statistical method will ultimately prove far the better, but it may not be practicable for centuries. For a fair estimate of the position of a country, we need accurate statistics of education, morality, industry, inventions, scientific and artistic skill, wealth, pauperism, charity, crime, and management. other aspects of human life which will rarely suggest themselves. No reliable figures for many of these things have ever been gathered in any part of the

Starting point is 07:39:32 world. No statistics for any of them have ever been gathered in many countries. Statistically it is almost impossible to compare Afghanistan for example with Kamchatka. Even when accurate statistics are available the methods of complying them are often so diverse as to make comparisons misleading. We may know exactly how many people are arrested and convicted for theft in half a dozen countries. But in one country the police may be so inefficient that few criminals are apprehended, while in another practically every thief may be caught. Thus the bitter may easily appear the worse.

Starting point is 07:40:09 The only way to use statistics at present seems to be as a check upon the other method. We can select some country so extensive that various parts differed as subtly, but sufficiently homogeneous so that the figures for all portions are comparable. Since the United States meets these conditions better than any other country, we shall examine statistics in several cases, and shall use them as a test of a map prepared on the basis of opinion. For a map of the civilization of the entire world, we must rely on the opinion of well-informed persons, but we shall find that this agrees closely with the indications of statistics. The value of a map based on personal opinion depends partially on our definition,

Starting point is 07:40:51 of civilization, and partially on our confidence in the judgment of the persons in question. Even the best and broadest experience does not eliminate personal or racial bias. Therefore, the only safe course is to obtain the appearance of many people belonging to different races and ruled by different ideals. Accordingly, in the autumn of 1913, I asked over 200 people in 27 countries to help in repairing a map. Fortunately, this was before the Great War broke out. Good feeling prevailed everywhere, and among men of sound judgment, there was perhaps as little

Starting point is 07:41:29 racial prejudice as at any time during the course of history. This is especially important because similar conditions may not prevail again for years. The persons whose assistance was asked were selected for various reasons. The larger number were geographers, whose first duty to know all parts of the world. Technologists and considerable numbers were included for the same reason, but they responded less freely than the geographers. Historians, diplomats, colonial officials, travelers, missionaries, editors, educators, and businessmen were all included. The only criterion was that each person should possess an extensive knowledge of the world through personal knowledge, or in a few cases, through reading. Some were selected because of knowledge of special regions, not well known to most people, and only reached by a

Starting point is 07:42:19 extensive travel. To all these many kinds of people numbering 213 and all, I sent the following letter. May I ask your corporation, in the preparation of a map showing the distribution of the higher elements of civilization throughout the world? My purpose is to prepare a map which shall show the distribution of those characteristics which are generally recognized as of the highest value. I mean by this the power of initiative, the capacity for formulating new ideas and for carrying them into effect, the power of self-control, high standards of honesty and morality, the power to lead and do control other races, the capacity for disseminating ideas and other similar qualities which will rarely suggest themselves. These qualities find expression in high ideals,

Starting point is 07:43:06 respect for law, inventiveness, ability to develop philosophical systems, stability and honesty of government, a highly developed system of education, the capacity to dominate the less civilized parts of the world and the ability to carry out far-reaching enterprises covering long periods of time and great areas of the earth's surface. In preparing such a map, it is evident that statistics may afford much assistance, but they need to be supplemented. They touch only upon material things in most cases and are not available for a large part of the world. Therefore, our best resource is a personal opinion of competent judges. Accordingly, I am asking a hundred geographers, anthropologists, and other persons of wide knowledge, whether they are willing

Starting point is 07:43:51 to take the time to divide the regions indicated in the accompanying list into ten groups, according to the criteria mentioned above. Group 10 will include regions of the very highest character, that is, those with the greatest number of valuable qualities are found in high degree. Group 1 will include those which are lowest in these respects. On the basis of this grouping, I shall determine the average position of each region and shall repair a map accordingly. The purpose of such a map is threefold.

Starting point is 07:44:21 In the first place, it will prove intrinsically interesting to a large number of people, and it's likely to arouse considerable discussion. In the second place, in all geographical, historical, sociological, and economic discussions, it seems to me that we need a clearer, stronger emphasis upon human character, that is, upon the mental and moral qualities which dominate the civilization of the various nations. If this is so, it is highly important in the third place that we should determine much more fully than has yet been the case how far very small and mental qualities are influenced by physical environment. Race, historical development, biological variations and other causes in order to determine these things we need a map which shall serve, at least approximately, as a standard of reference. In discussing the influence of such things as racial character, differences of religious,

Starting point is 07:45:16 religion, social institutions, modern means of communication, the form of the land, the relation of land and sea, variations of climate and the like. We shall be able to gain much light by comparing the distribution with that of human character as it now exists according to a consensus of expert opinion. The matter can best be illustrated by outlining a specific purpose to which I mean at once to apply the proposed map. Here follows a brief description of the map of human energy on the basis of factory work. I recognize that those to whom this letter is sent will say at once that they are not sufficiently

Starting point is 07:45:53 familiar with all parts of the world, and that they have no means distinguishing between different parts of China, for example, or between the different portions of equatorial Africa. This is certainly true, but it must be remembered that the classification is very rough. It is only desired that 185 names on the enclosed list be divided into 10 groups. group to contain less than 15 names or more than 21, and each preferably to contain 18 or 19. It may not be easy to determine whether all of the divisions of France, for example, fall in the first group, but it is perfectly evident that none of them will fall in the fifth or lower.

Starting point is 07:46:32 The chief thing is to place them as nearly as possible in their proper group according to one's own personal opinion. A given region may probably fall in the fifth group, but the purpose of this classification will not be defeated, If it is placed in either the fourth, fifth, or six, or when the opinions of 100 persons are averaged, individual idiosyncrasies would disappear. In view of the varying degrees to which each individual is familiar with the different regions of the world, I should be glad that each contributor would underline the names of regions with which he is well acquainted, either by travel or reading, and would place question marks after the names of regions as to which his knowledge is especially deficient.

Starting point is 07:47:09 names not underlined or questioned will be considered as intermediate. The three grades of familiarity thus indicated will be weighted in the ratios of 3-2-1. This has not been done, partially because only about half of the contributors made the division into 3 grades and partially because the final results were not appreciably changed by using the unweighted values. The grade of the various regions should be indicated by underlying or questioning the names upon the small slips mentioned below. but may be done upon the accompanying list if that is more convenient. But in that case, please be sure to return the list. For convenience of classification, I enclose slips containing the names of the different divisions.

Starting point is 07:47:53 These may be spread out upon a table and arranged ten columns, and shift from column to column until an approximately satisfactory arrangement is breached. When thus arranged, those of each column should be placed in the corresponding envelope of the ten here closed, and all may be mailed in a large addressed envelope. Enflope 10 is for the highest group and one for the lowest. In making the classification, one or two points need to be borne in mind. In the first place, the past should not be considered. Greece, for example, should be placed in the group where it's conditioned during the past 100 years

Starting point is 07:48:26 would place without reference to its ancient greatness. In the second place, if two races inhabit a given region, both must be considered, and the rank of the region must depend upon the end. average of the two, giving each one a weight proportional to the number of people. For instance, in a state such as Georgia, where nearly half the people are Negroes, they must receive half the weight. Still another point is that the rank of a country can often be determined by considering the position which its people take when they migrate elsewhere. For instance, the position of Syrians, as compared with Germans, when they migrate to England or the United

Starting point is 07:49:03 States, it's a fair criterion as to the relative merits of the two races. After the first generation, however, this should not be applied. For the younger generation owes much of what it is to the new country. A final point concerns countries which are poor and natural resources, or which are not located in the main centres of the world's activity, but which are nevertheless of high character. For example, so far as importance in the affair as the world is concerned, England vastly outranked Scotland.

Starting point is 07:49:31 Nevertheless, I have estimated the greatness of England owes much to the large number of Scotsmen who have gone out to build the British Empire. Therefore, in estimating the relative merits of Scotland and England, the manner of size are even of commercial importance should receive relatively little consideration, whereas the character and ability of the people as rulers, merchants, scientists, writers, and men of all sorts should have a predominating weight.

Starting point is 07:49:58 In publishing the final results, I should be glad if I might print the names of those who have contributed, but of course this must be, each individual may choose. The individual lists will not be published, and will be treated as confidential. I judge that our contributors will feel, as I do, that their classifications are of necessity so imperfect, that they do not care to distribute them to the world at large. Hence while the list of contributors will be published unless the contributors prefer otherwise,

Starting point is 07:50:29 their individual opinions will be withheld. I hope, however, to publish a list showing the average rank of each country and the range of opinion between those who put it highest and those who put it lowest. Inasmuch as a plan here outlined depends upon the cooperation of many contributors. No single individual can, in any respect, be held responsible for features in the final map, which not meet his approval. In addition to the general list of divisions, I enclose a set of cards bearing the names of the states of the United States

Starting point is 07:51:00 and of the provinces of Canada. Would you be willing to arrange these in groups and place them in the proper envelopes, employing the same method as for the larger divisions. Group 1 will be the states or provinces, which are least progressive, or least influential, so far as the general character of those citizens is concerned, and Group 6 is the highest. Each group should contain about 10 names. The object of this, you see, is to make a map of the United States and Southern Canada on the same basis as at the world, but on a more minute scale.

Starting point is 07:51:34 The rough grouping here is suggested, or not to take more than a few, few hours time. Many days, to be sure, might be devoted to it, by the added accuracy this gained would not be sufficient to make it worthwhile. If you can give the necessary time at your earliest convenience, I shall be most grateful. If you cannot, would you be willing to return the list, the slips, and the envelopes in order there may ask someone else to do it in your place? Whether you contribute or not, I shall take pleasure in sending you copies of the final results, trusting that I may hear from you soon. I am, very truly yours, Ellsworth Huntingdon.

Starting point is 07:52:10 Replies were received from 137 persons, while others have sent copies of their publications, so that an answer at some sort came from about three-fourths of those addressed. The majority of the remaining fourth were foreigners, to whom a six-page letter in English might appear formidable. About 90% of the English and Americans sent replies, which is a very large proportion as such things go. I'm convinced that the rest failed to answer chiefly because the classification required more time and was more difficult than I first realized.

Starting point is 07:52:42 The fact that classifications continued to be received for an entire year indicates that many meant to answer, but put my letter aside for a more convenient season, which never arrived. The third of those who replied, 54 to be exact, actually made classifications, and all but two or three conformed so closely to the general plan that has been possible to use them. the names of the contributors are given in the appendix i take this opportunity to express the warmest appreciation of their kindness incorporating so cordially not only their classifications but their letters were of the highest value and in many cases contained suggestions which had been of great assistance in preparing this volume the same is true of many letters from persons who did not contribute but it took pains to explain their reasons and to suggest ways in which my plan might be improved Except where direct quotations are employed, I have not attempted to acknowledge my ineptness for various ideas which distinctly modify the tenure of these pages.

Starting point is 07:53:42 This is partly because the same thought was often expressed by several persons, and partially because in many cases I cannot tell from which several letters an idea was derived. Except in two instances I have also refrained from mentioning names, because where so many have contributed materials of great value, it might seem invidious to mention some and not others. Therefore, I can merely express my gratitude to all concerned. The net result of this attempt at scientific cooperation among men of many races and tongues leaves a strong impression of the spirit of fellowship and friendly helpfulness among men of wide interests in all portions of the world.

Starting point is 07:54:21 The countries represented in the final classification and the number of contributors are as follows. Australia one. Canada one. Norway one. Sweden one. Netherlands one. Russia one. Spain one. Portugal one. France two. Italy two. Japan three. China three. Germany five. Great Britain seven. And the United States 24. The number of Chinese and Japanese is particularly gratifying. The ratio between the number of contributors and the number to whom letters were sent is higher among them than any other main group except the Americans, as may be seen in the appendix. It is to be regretted that no one from India or South America cooperated,

Starting point is 07:55:06 and only one a Russian from the European countries east of Germany. The difficulty of making the classification is considerable. Several contributors spoke of spending an entire day upon it, or of taking out the slips time after time to arrange them more satisfactorily. Some said that they spent two entire days upon it All seemed impressed by the way in which a systematic classification of this kind brings out the weak spots in a man's knowledge For instance, here is the way in which one contributor expressed himself

Starting point is 07:55:37 One appreciates what a big world this is and how little one knows about it When he attempts at such a task as you have said It is the most excellent means of taking the conceit out of one Another puts it in this way. I must confess that is the most difficult and one of the most humiliating games I have ever tried to play. I always knew I was a fraud as a president of a geographical society, but I never knew how great was my deception. The greatest difficulty I found lay through my ignorance of the proportion of the different races inhabiting a district. An interesting feature of the letters was the diversity of opinion as the advisability of any such classification.

Starting point is 07:56:20 of countries. To take the adverse opinions first, one of my best friends, and American geographer, put the matter very strongly. I am complying with your request for a sorting of the slips you sent me. It is a very bad plan, and to not I think of value. Indeed, I am not sure that I would have done it for anyone else than you. I am glad to say that later he expressed a much less severe opinion. Another geographer, a Teutonic European, speaks more quarterly in part of his letter, but comes out bluntly in opposition to this particular plan. I am wholly unable to take part in this work. I take your scheme as a failure.

Starting point is 07:56:58 I guess you are here, like some other Americans, under the influence of a two's systemizing spirit. It seems to be impossible to classify mankind by this simple method. Still a third, an American anthropologist is equally uncompromising. Speaking frankly, I do not conceive that the method you suggest is possible of scientific results. One must choose between statistics which are definite and mere judgments which are general. To apply the geographic method to a compound of statistics and loose generalization may be productive of grave error.

Starting point is 07:57:32 And a fourth, also an American anthropologist expresses himself as follows. It has been my endeavor in my anthropological studies to follow the same principles that are laid down for natural sciences. And the first condition of progress is therefore to eliminate the element of subjective value not if they wish to deny that there are values, but it seems to be necessary to eliminate the peculiar combination of the development of cultural forms and the intrusion of the idea of our estimate of their value, which has nothing to do with these forms. It seems to my mind that in doing so these obtain subjective values, which in themselves may be the subject of interesting studies, but which do not give any answer to the question that you are trying to solve.

Starting point is 07:58:16 Another anthropologist, this time a European, at the end of a particularly long and suggestive letter, expresses himself thus. Taking all that I have written here into consideration, I think that if we are going to grind all the different regions of your long lists in the same statistical mill, and to try to compute an average, a highly improper and fantastic result would be obtained. For my own edification, I put some of your criteria to the test, though in a different way. I drew up a list of 12 characteristics of the highest value, which I included, sense for beauty and literature, betterless letters, and a few others, and then distributed them to 11 different regions in the globe. My familiarity with those regions by long sojourn or travel and reading covers a lifetime. To each characteristic for each region, I assign a number from 1 to 10. I then added the different values of points to try to find a ratio, which might be called index or civilisation.

Starting point is 07:59:18 I give it, Féidit quantum valerie protest. The table possesses so many points of interest that it is inserted below. At the end I have added a column showing the rank of the various regions according to all the contributors as computed according to the system presently to be outlined. If the plan embodied in this table could be carried out on large scale, it would undoubtedly be better than mine. The difficulty is that it requires a vast amount of work and a degree of familiarity with the various peoples of the earth,

Starting point is 07:59:53 which is found only among a few exceptional students who can almost be counted on the fingers. In course of time, we may perhaps hope for a map based on some such minute study of human nature. Yet when it is before us, there is every reason to think that its general features with which alone we are concerned in this book will be almost identical with those of the map which we shall surely consider.

Starting point is 08:00:16 The reasons for this will be given list. One important point stands out in this table. I have given too little weight to the aesthetic side of human nature. In framing a definition of civilization, I consciously thought of art in all its forms, but it seems as if this were included in the capacity for formulating new ideas and for carrying them into effect. Just as science is meant to be included. Moreover, the course of history seems to show that every nation which rises high in other respects, Sooner or later experiences a period of high development in art, architecture, literature, and science.

Starting point is 08:00:53 Nevertheless, these things should have received more specific recognition in my definition. To turn now to the other side of the question, those who believe in the utility of the plan presented in my letter naturally does not feel the necessity of stating their reasons. Nevertheless, a considerable number take pains to express approval. For instance, a widely travelled Englishman thinks that their are tremendous possibilities in all such attempts. An American who is familiar with most of the countries of the world says, permit me to

Starting point is 08:01:24 say how heartily I thank you for engaging in this enterprise, despite any and all sympathetic or hostile criticism of such a work, or the cheap and hasty, or a really valuable appraisal likely to be made. Such a scheme will be invaluable to all students of human progress. Another American, who has spent a large part of his life in the Orient, is of the opinion that it is a fascinating and very significant set of standards by which we have asked us to group the regions. From the time I started after lunch until now, late in the evening, I have done nothing else.

Starting point is 08:01:59 Though it is more than fascination, there is a very deep issue involved, and I am glad to share in the construction of the map and the charts you are aiming to devise. The table is displayed on the previous page, distribution of some characteristics of higher civilization by H. 10 Kate. One of the fairest estimates of both the advantages and disadvantages of the plan is contained at a letter from Ambassador Bryce, as we Americans still like to call him. With his permission, I quoted in full. Your idea is ingenious and interesting, and I should much like to see how it works out, though it seems to me on first impressions that the various factors involved

Starting point is 08:02:42 are so many and so complex that the visual presentation you contemplate will need an amount of comment and explanation which will require something like a treatise to accompany the map. You give one instance in the case of the state of Georgia, another might be found in the other Georgia, south of the Caucasus, where besides the native Georgians, Kartli, there are Armenians, Tartars and Russians, not to speak of minor races. Or take Japan, if one were to think of the education, and ruling Japanese and the sort of civilization they have created, what would make a rating quite inapplicable to the ordinary Japanese,

Starting point is 08:03:20 without therefore doubting that by means of a map presenting very interesting results may be obtained, I should think that some modifications would be needed. Efficiency is a very complex conception. If I had time I should like to try to think further about the scheme, and lend what aid I could to it, but unfortunately I am so fully occupied by trying to try and to do it, occupied by trying to finish a book for the sake of which I retired from the embassy at Washington that I am, to my regret, unable to cooperate with you. I shall be grateful for any information

Starting point is 08:03:52 as to the results you can send me if you have leisure. P.S. dated two weeks after the letter. I have kept the papers some weeks in order to see if I could help you. I have dealt with the states and provinces of the United States and Canada, though roughly, but I have found the difficulty of any adequate arrangement of the extra-European world in point of efficiency, impossible in respect of the extraordinary mixture of races. Turkey and India are nuts too hard to crack. In South America, it would be easier, because the races are really so mixed than a new race results. But in India, they live side by side and are quite different. It follows the classification of South America. It is quite interesting and makes one think, but after all, it

Starting point is 08:04:38 the natural race divisions rather than territorial divisions that count everywhere outside Western Europe. Even in Russia and the Balkans, race doesn't correspond to territory. These various leaders give a good idea of the general opinion of the attempted classification. As an illustration of the difficulties to be overcome, let me quote from an Italian contributor and anthropologist. What is the standard of these various civilizations? Yours, as it seems to me, is an European one, and this, I think, is a very limited one and cannot solve the problems.

Starting point is 08:05:16 A similar objection is expressed in a letter from an English anthropologist. Quoted from my letter, he says, The power of self-control, high standards, velocity, and morality, high ideals, respect for laws, are eminently characteristic of many savage and barbarian peoples, notably the North American Indians. And in my opinion, these letters stand very much higher than the average American citizen, but the latter lead in the power to lead to control other races, and capacity for disseminating ideas, inventiveness, highly developed systems, etc. I recognize the force of these comments.

Starting point is 08:05:55 Races certainly differ greatly, even though they happen to dwell in the same physical environment. Moreover, people of a given race who live under the same environment, may differ widely because of diversity in religion, government or institutions. Furthermore, the definition of civilization here presented does not pretend to be perfect. It is a European definition. It is also a worldwide definition. The contemplative Hindu may perhaps be a higher type than the aggressive citizen of Western Europe, but the contemplative type has made relatively little impression upon the world as a whole. If we turn to antiquity, the people who have left their impress are those who had this so-called European activity.

Starting point is 08:06:41 The Greeks and Romans added to a marked degree. The people of India had something of it when they wrote the Vedas. Kautama had it when he founded the Buddhist religion. He was contemplative, but yet he had the qualities expressed in our definition. He was primarily possessed of high ideals, respect for law, and vetiveness. in the broad non-tentical sense, ability to develop philosophical systems, and the capacity to dominate the less civilized parts of the world. He dominated through ideas, not force.

Starting point is 08:07:14 The Jews had this same power. Such men as St. Paul, although not aggressive under the ruder European sense, were unsurpassed in the power of initiative, the capacity of formulating new ideas and for carrying them into effect. The power of self-control, high standards of honesty and morality, the power to leave and control, and their capacity for disseminating ideas. The reason for regarding the standard here is set forth as European is that Europe is today its great exponent. In the past, however, not only did Rome, Greece, Palestine and even Northern India possess

Starting point is 08:07:50 it, but Egypt, Mesopotamia and Carthage all displayed it. China too, in her days of early greatness, and the wonderful Maya people of Yucatan, the only once to develop the art of writing in America were animated by the same active, stirring European qualities. That is why we remember them, but have forgotten most their contemporaries. Granting though definition of civilisation is imperfect, but admitting that it includes the qualities which are of greatest importance in causing a nation to impress itself upon the world. Let us now proceed to ascertain how these qualities seem to be distributed. The 50 contributors whose classifications could be used, having divided into five divisions as follows.

Starting point is 08:08:34 1.25 Americans, one of whom is a Canadian. 2. 7 British. One of whom is an Australian. 3. 6 Germanic Europeans. 4 of whom are Germans. One are Swede and one are Norwegian. 4. 6 Latin Europeans, namely 2 Frenchmen, 2 Italians, 1 Spaniard and 1 Portuguese, with whom has been included one Russian because there is no other group in which she fits more appropriately, and five, five Asiatics, two of whom are Chinese and three Japanese. A third Chinese contribution was most unfortunately lost in the mail. The average opinion of each of these five groups is given in the tables and the appendix.

Starting point is 08:09:20 To obtain the final rank of each country, the averages for the five groups have again been averaged. Thus each race, or at least each of our five divisions, has equal weight in determining the figures on which will be based the map under in later discussions. The opinion of 25 Americans, for example, has no more weight than that of five Asiatics. This may seem unfair, but on the whole it seems to be the method best calculated to give a reliable result. All of us are inevitably prejudiced. The Americans put America, especially its more backward parts, higher than is correct. The Asiatics put their own countries too high. By giving America and Asia equal weight and by dividing Europeans into three groups

Starting point is 08:10:03 animated by different ideals and different sympathies, we are able largely to eliminate the effect of racial prejudice. The final results are summed up in figures 23 to 28, but I shall defer comment upon these at four the present. In the tables in the appendix, the countries of Europe, North America and Asia have we divided into groups corresponding as nearly as possible to race, or those of Australia, Africa and South America have each been put in a single group

Starting point is 08:10:33 because the racial differences are either not strongly marked as in Australia and South America or are highly complicated as in Africa. Under each group, the country's final rank is highest has been placed first and the rest in consecutive order. Figure 23 is displayed on the page, the distribution of civilization in Europe. To begin with Europe, England has the list.

Starting point is 08:11:00 It is the only region placed in the first rank by every contributor. Northwestern Germany, which includes Berlin, comes next. The Germanic Europeans and the Asiatics all place it in the first rank. The British almost invariably do so, and their opinion, 9.9, averages the same as that of all divisions. Among the Americans and Latins, several plays this part of, Germany in the ninth class instead of the tenth. Hence its average position, according to them, is about 9.8. Such slight differences have little significance, for 98% is almost as good as 100%.

Starting point is 08:11:35 Yet they suggest that in 1913, people who live in other parts of the world were on the whole not quite so sure of the Germans as of the English. Following northwestern Germany we find central Germany, then Scotland, Denmark, Holland, and so on to northeastern Germany. northeastern Germany. Here for the first time we come to a region which is placed by one group the Latins in a rank lower than 9.0. Yet even here the Latins do not assign a rank lower than 8.5 and everything above this rank is very high. Nowhere in these first 14 regions does a greatest diversity account to more than

Starting point is 08:12:12 one degree on our scale of 10 or 10% on the scale of 100. This is comparatively insignificant, for a means that, while the difference between the highest and the lowest maybe 10%, each of them usually differs from the average by only about 5%. Thus, so far as numbers 1 to 14 are concerned, the difference of opinion among Americans, British, Germans, Latins and Aegeetics is almost negligible. All alike rank these regions very high. Coming to Ireland, a country which, for lack of any other suitable group, is placed with the Teutonic regions, we find much more diversity of opinion.

Starting point is 08:12:54 The English, presumably because it is part of their own empire, and the Asiatic's, perhaps because it seems to them, like a part of England, plays it very high with a rank close to 9.0. The Germans, on the other hand, plays at 7.0, scarcely above the medium grade, or the Americans and Latin place it near 0, which means that compared with the world as a whole, they think that Ireland stands high, but not very high. The fact that all the Teutonic regions except Ireland and the Austrian Alps rank above 9.0, that these two, which are partially Teutonic, stand in the high group near 8.0, suggests that race is a dominant factor in determining the status of civilization.

Starting point is 08:13:37 The same suggestion is enforced when we note that among the Roman nations, the most Teutonized portions stand highest. Yet the fact that innate racial differences may be of great and even overwhelming importance, as I have shown in the character of races, by no means odors the fact that geographical conditions also play a highly important part. Figure 24 is displayed on the page, the distribution of civilization in Asia. The Romance Nations of Europe seem to possess much more diversity of civilization than do the Teutans. Even if Albania and Mordinegrou be admitted has not been truly romance, the range is from medium

Starting point is 08:14:18 in Corsica and Sardinia to high in many regions and very high in parts of France and northern Italy. Some places such as Southeast in Spain and southern Italy are rated exceptionally high by the Asiatics, although the other contributors agree quite closely. Among the Slavic nations, Central Russia stands at only 6.2 in American opinion, possibly because Jewish atrocities were freshly in mind when the classification was made. In general, there could be no question that the Baltic provinces and Bohemia stand at the top, while southeastern and northeastern Russia are at the bottom. Figure 25 is displayed on the page, the distribution of civilization in Australia.

Starting point is 08:15:02 The European region whose rank is most doubtful is southern Finland. The Asiatics reduce it to about 6.6, while the Germans rated at 9.4. Even in so extreme a case, the average opinion is not open to much criticism. The final rank is about 8.0, which puts Finland at nearly the same level as Bohemia, the Baltic provinces of Russia, Ireland and the Australian Alps. It would be interesting to go through all the tables and point out their special features, but this must be left for the reader to do by himself. Only one or two additional points can be indicated.

Starting point is 08:15:40 In Asia, the first thing that strikes one is a great diversity of opinion as to Japan and China. China. This is due to the fact that the Japanese and Chinese place their own countries much higher than to the people of other races. Figure 26 is displayed on the page, the distribution of civilization in Africa. This is natural. The surprising thing is rather that these people, with their justifiable pride, in a great past, did not place their own countries at the very top. Figure 27 is displayed on the page the distribution of civilization in South America. They recognize that Europe and North America have in certain ways surpass them. Aside from Japan and China, the agreement of the different groups as the position of Asianic countries isn't the whole surprising.

Starting point is 08:16:30 Only in rare cases does the opinion of any one group depart from the average opinion by more than a single degree on the scale of 10. Two of the few exceptions are Rajputana and the city and desert, both of which are placed exceptionally low by the Asiatics. In Australia and North America, the diversity of opinion is much greater than in the older continents. It reaches a maximum in Canada, especially in Alberta, and in southern Greenland and Iceland. In such places, opinion ceases to be of any special value. People simply don't know what sort of conditions actually prevail.

Starting point is 08:17:07 In Australia, likewise, the comparative newness of the country causes some people to overrate it and others to depreciate it. It has not yet reached the stable equilibrium which gives the world as a whole a well-defined opinion. In the United States, there is no more diversity of opinion than in Europe, for that country has taken its true place among the nations. In Australia and Canada, on the other hand, outsiders who live far away and who were not racially connected with the inhabitants are still skeptical as to whether those countries are actually destined to rise as high as their people claim. Thus far we have drawn attention to differences of opinion more than two agreements.

Starting point is 08:17:50 Let us now examine the matter in another way, which brings out the essential agreements. We will take North America because it is the constant as to which there is the greatest diversity of opinion. Figures 28 to 33 present a series of maps based on the average opinion of all divisions and contributors, and on the individual opinion of each division respectively. Here is in figures 23 and 227. The rank of each region has been written in its proper place on the map. Then lines have been drawn in such a way as to separate the areas above and below 9, above and below 8, and so forth. Figure 28 is displayed on the page, Civilization

Starting point is 08:18:32 in North America, according to all contributors. Figure 29 displayed on the page, Civilization in North America according to 25 Americans. The area's ranking above 9.0 has have been heavily shaded. Those from 8.0 to 9.0 less heavily and so on until places below 2.0 are more almost unshaded. This gives a map of civilization whose main features can readily be grasped. In Vigua 28, which represents the average opinion of all groups of contributors, certain main features stand out prominently. They are one, an area where civilization declines rapidly northward and British America. 2. A high area extending from east to west across the northern half of the United States and a narrow southern band of Canada.

Starting point is 08:19:22 3. An exceptionally high area in the northeastern United States from the Mississippi to the Atlantic Ocean. 4. A similar, small, high area on the Pacific coast. 5. A bite of lower but not of low territory extending into Nevada. 6. A rather rapid decline south of the United States, which is interrupted by 7. and area of slight improvement in central Mexico. Let us now turn to figure 29 and see how the opinion of Americans differs from that of the world as a whole. The general aspect of the two maps is the same,

Starting point is 08:19:58 for every one of the seven features just mentioned can be detected. The older states along the Atlantic from New England to the northern Gulf states have almost identically the same rank in both maps. The chief difference lies in this. The Americans have higher idea of the new parts of their country and of the new parts of Canada then have the people of other places. They have a correspondingly low idea of the countries immediately to the south of them.

Starting point is 08:20:26 In Central America, their opinion does not differ greatly from that to the rest of the world, but they place the West Indies in Mexico relatively low. In the West Indies, this is probably due in large measure to the fact that in order to prevent internal convulsion the United States has repeatedly intervened in Cuba during the brief period of self-governed enjoyed by that country. The lowest spend of Mexico probably rises from recent revolutions, which at the time

Starting point is 08:20:54 when the classification was made, were producing the most unpleasant impression in the United States. In Europe and Asia, the disorders of Cuba and Mexico attract relatively little attention, and the contributors to our classification probably thought of these countries, as they were during their periods of long pace. Now that a study British opinion is expressed in figure 30. One of the most noticeable things is the English opinion of the southern United States, especially at the southwestern deserts.

Starting point is 08:21:25 No patriotic feelings, either conscious or unconscious, lead them to believe that high conditions extend to the Mexican boundary beyond which Americans believe that there is a great and sudden change. Their opinion of the Atlantic portions of the United States is almost identical with that the Americans and the rest of the world, and they agree with other races in their opinion of the region's south of the United States. They believe, as there's almost everyone,

Starting point is 08:21:52 that the Pacific coast of the United States stands higher than the western part of the interior, but they do not think quite so well of it as do the Americans, although the difference is slight. The places where their national pride comes into prominence are in Newfoundland and the Canadian Northwest. It is interesting to notice that, they place newfound land of British Columbia higher than do the Americans.

Starting point is 08:22:15 They do not have so high an opinion of the maritime provinces, nor of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Winnipeg. In the latter regions, this is easily explicable. A great number of Americans have gone to Winnipeg, Alberta and Saskatchewan during recent years, and their glowing reports they've made upon Americans a great impression which has not yet reached England so strongly, and has scarcely touched the rest of the world. Americans perhaps think more highly of the maritime provinces than do the English, because many of the most energetic Nova Scotians and other provincials come to the states, display marked ability.

Starting point is 08:22:54 To cite a case which has come under my own observation, the students from Acadia College in Nova Scotia, who carry on work in the Graduate School of Yale University, for some years maintain a high average grade in their studies, then did those from any other institutions. Figure 30 is displayed on the page, distribution of Civilization in North America according to seven British contributors. Figure 81 is displayed on the page, Civilization in North America, according to six Germanic Europeans. In the German map, Figure 31, the seven general features already enumerated can readily be detected, just as in the American and English maps. The differences are largely matters of detail, such a feature as the assignment of a rank of non-encompassing. 9.0 to the northern Rocky Mountain states of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, and of only 8.0

Starting point is 08:23:48 to the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa is probably due to lack of familiarity with the interior of the continent. Why Newfound Landry stands so high is not evident, unless it is because the name has long been known and is very familiar. In the high position of Iceland, racial pride is again evident, for the Icelanders are close akin to the Germans. The Romance peoples present a map, figure 32, which again shows all the main features. They know however, even less of the recent development of the Western United States and of the

Starting point is 08:24:24 Canadian Northwest than do the Germans. To them, Alberta and Saskatchewan are apparently undeveloped tracks where Trappers and Indians still roam, for otherwise they surely do not assign so low as 4.4. We found land for some reason is also placed low only 5.2 and Greenland still lower 3.4. On the other hand, just as the presence of Germanic people in Iceland and Greenland draws the high lines far to the north-east in the Germanic map, and as pride of country bulges the high lines to include the whole United States and the American map, so as similar racial pride causes Cuba and the Creole regions of Louisiana to be much higher on the

Starting point is 08:25:06 Latin map than on it yellow. The House comes the Asiatics with a map, figure 33, which is surprisingly like the other maps. They do not yet realise what has happened in the Canadian North and West. By their opinion of eastern Canada, a newfound land is close to the average. The place where they differ chiefly from others is in their relative ideas of the northern Rocky Mountain States, to which they assign a rank of only 7.6, and of the southern states, which they place all the way from 8.2 to 9.4, Apparently the Eastern United States seems to them highly progressive in all parts, and they do not attach much importance to the presence of the Negroes,

Starting point is 08:25:48 a disadvantage which Americans themselves feel strongly. Taking these maps as a whole, we see that they all give the same general impression. Where one group goes to a great extreme as in Newfoundland or Greenland, some other is likely to go to the opposite extreme. Thus the eccentricities of judgment displayed by one race, as largely counteracted by those of another. When all are averaged, the number of inconsistencies is greatly diminished. To Americans in English, it may seem that Alberta and Saskatchewan, for example, should

Starting point is 08:26:24 have a rank higher than is here given them, but we are forced to admit that final judgment is not possible until these regions have been well populated for a generation or two. Taken as a whole, figure 28 seems to contain no important inconsistencies, even if, though one might wish to change the rank of certain places in which he is particularly interested. The map represents the judgment of thoughtful people in many countries. If 50 other equally well-informed people representing an equally large number of countries in three separate continents were chosen to make another classification, it is highly improbable that their map would differ from figure 28 so much as this map

Starting point is 08:27:04 differs from the others. The chances are that the two would be so nearly alike has to be indistinguistic. It is as much as there is more diversity of opinion in regard to North America than to any other continent. The maps of the others approach still more closely to a true representation of the opinion of thoughtful people all of the world. The maps are by no means perfect, for human judgment is fallible. Yet they at least present so close an approximation to the truth that we may use their general features without danger of error. During the World War and succeeding period of hot prejudice, it seemed to many people that the truth of this last statement was doubtful. Figure 32 is displayed on the page, Civilization in North America, according to six Latin Europeans and one Russian.

Starting point is 08:27:56 Figure 33 is displayed on the page, civilization in North America, according to five Asiatics. But soberer thought today shows that this is by no means a case. During the war, the steadfastness and ability with which the Varus Races fought was almost directly in harmony with their position in a map of civilization. The Portuguese, with a rank of Semini, had to be taken out of the main line of battle, for they cannot withstand Germans who rank above 95. The Austrians, Poles, Italians and Russians, not to mention the Asiatic and Africans, came out of the war with less military prestige than the British, French and Germans. Moreover, since the war, the European countries shed black in figure 23, that is, those ranking highest in civilization, have recovered more rapidly than their neighbors of lower rank. France and Belgium, in spite of being ravished, and Germany, in spite of her financial debacle,

Starting point is 08:28:53 have strengthened their positions in many respects, and are pushing ahead with remarkable energy. Russia, on the other hand, remains in a curious state of suspended animation, perplexing the world by her combination of inertia and radicalism. The Servio system is perhaps only normally at the root of her troubles. The wholesale exodus and slaughter of the old leading classes had probably done irreparable damage, whose full results may not appear for many years. But back of both these facts lie something in Russian character, something which before the war held their country down to a rank of from 46 to 73 in figure 23.

Starting point is 08:29:34 Spain, Italy, Hungary, Greece, and the rest of southern and eastern Europe have likewise behaved as one would expect of countries on the level of progress indicated by their respective positions on our maps of civilization. Thus on the whole, the World War and its aftermath seem to confirm the value of our method of estimating human progress. End of Section 11. Section 12. Of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington.

Starting point is 08:30:08 This is a Librevox recording. Or Libravox Accordings on the public domain. For more information on a volunteer, please visit Libravox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 12 Vitality and Education in the United States We now have before us maps the world depicting the distribution of climatic energy and of civilization.

Starting point is 08:30:32 Our ultimate object is to compare them and see whether they are casually related. It will add to the certainty of our results, however, if we first apply an independent statistical test to each of our two maps. Since the methods of compiling statistics vary correctly, and results will be most reliable if we confine ourselves to a single country. The United States is easily the best for this purpose. It possesses a large and highly for right area which tends to produce diversity.

Starting point is 08:31:00 Its census and such organizations as life insurance companies furnished data compiled according to the same method in all parts. It is homogeneous in government and institutions. Equal opportunities are open to war, and the same ideals and methods prevail almost everywhere. Moreover, no part has been devastated by war or any other great disturbance for nearly two generations. The people have moved freely from place to place, and there has been a constant tenancy to foster a single type of culture. From all these points of view, no other equal area is so nearly uniform. Racially a country is of course complex, but until the last few decades a great majority of the people have been Nordics from northwestern Europe.

Starting point is 08:31:44 Various types have mixed to such a degree, and have become so strongly Americanized, that the native white population is everywhere similar. The only large elements which tends strongly toward diversity are the Negroes and the recent immigrants from non-Tutonic countries. If these are eliminated, as they are, to a large degree in the maps that we shall consider, essentially the same degree of energy and civilization ought to prevail throughout the country except where geographic surroundings. The presence of some special institution or some other disturbing factor makes itself felt. Figure 34 was displayed on the page, Climatic Energy in the United States on the basis of factory work.

Starting point is 08:32:24 Figure 35 is displayed on the page, Vitality in the United States according to life insurance statistics Figure 86 is displayed on the page Distribution of Climatic Health on basis of seasonal variations in 33 cities 1915 Figure 87 is displayed on the page Civilization in the United States The numbers indicate the relative rank on a scale of 6.0

Starting point is 08:32:48 according to 23 contributors The highest possible rank is 6.0 and the lowest 1.0 The scale is entirely independent of the one used for the world as a whole. One of the best tests of energy is vitality. We have already seen that the death rate varies from month to month in close harmony with variations in the strength of factory operatives. Let us now see whether there is similar geographic harmony.

Starting point is 08:33:15 Figure 34 shows the distribution of climatic energy in the United States. It is a revision of figure 22, but on a larger scale. Figure 36 is a new map of climatic energy based on seasonal variations in the death rate as described in chapters 7 to 9. The general similarity of these two maps compiled in absolutely different ways is one of the strong reasons for believing that they give a true idea of the distribution of climatic energy. Where either one is heavily shaded, we should expect people to be strong, vigorous and long-lived. We might test this expectation by ordinary mortality data, But such data make no allowance for age, nor for such conditions, as a preponderance of unhealthful cities and manufacturing in the Northeast, and the natural selection of more vigorous types is migrants to the West.

Starting point is 08:34:06 A more reliable test is furnished by insurance companies, for their policyholders are much more homogeneous than the population as a whole, and full allowances made for age. A comparison between the actual deaths among policyholders and the deaths expected on the basis of standard life-time. tables gives a good idea of the vitality of a community. Figure 35 shows such a comparison. It is based on the combined experience of three prominent life insurance companies whose officials have kindly placed in my hands the figures for hundreds of thousands of people arranged by states. On the map, the figures indicate the actual number of deaths compared with the average for the whole country, which is taken as 100. The country has been divided into five grades corresponding to those of the energy map.

Starting point is 08:34:52 The two heaviest shadings include regions where mortality is distinctly less than will be expected from the actual tables. The third degree of shading indicates conditions little better than the average. The fourth, high mortality and the lightest very high. The individual maps for each of the three companies are closely similar, which indicates that the general features are not due to any special policy of one company. Indeed, so far as a policy of the companies is concerned, is concerned, the southern states ought to present a better record than the northern. For the restrictions upon the issuance of policies are there more rigid.

Starting point is 08:35:30 For instance, one company entirely refuses to issue any policies in certain unhealthful sections of the south. Elsewhere only people engaged in special kinds of healthful occupations are accepted. Moreover, in the places where risks are accepted, upon the same terms as in the north, The medical examination is often more strict, especially in respect to preventable diseases such as tuberculosis. Various other considerations differentiate one region from another. For instance, in cities, especially manufacturing cities, the death rate is higher than in country districts, and this causes New York State to be unduly high. Minors are an especially precarious class from the standpoint of these insurance companies, and therefore excluded by state.

Starting point is 08:36:19 least one of our three companies in some of the more remote western states and are accepted only small numbers by the others. They may account for the poor position of Montana but the neighboring mining state of Idaho ought in that case to be equally bad. In all the more important respects the tendency would be to cause the death rate in the south to be lower than in the north, were it not for the distributing element of fiscal weakness due to climate. In tropical countries the figures are far worse than in the southern states. which is what would naturally be expected.

Starting point is 08:36:52 The fact that sick people often go west for their health does not enter into the problem. Such people cannot obtain insurance. If they have been insured before they become sick, they reckoners belonging to the place where they lived when their policies were issued, and not to the place where they die. It would be interesting to enter into further details, but space does not permit. The outstanding feature of the Vitality Map is its agreement with the maps of climate, energy. As people die in greatest numbers during months when their energy is low, so they

Starting point is 08:37:25 die in parts of the country where their energy would be expected to be diminished on account of the climate. In figures 34, 35 and 36, conditions are best in the north, from New England to Kansas. Westward and southward they become less favourable. The decline in health is probably due in part to a direct physiological effect of climate, and in part to its indirect effect upon sanitation and other methods for the promotion of health. The direct and indirect effects of climate almost inventively go together. For where people's energy is great, they are quick to adopt new means for the prevention of disease and the improvement of health. Moreover, in dry and still more in warm regions,

Starting point is 08:38:07 it is easy to tolerate unsanitary methods of disposing of sewage, which thus pollutes the water supply. Yet all these things would apparently lose part of their importance, where not for the weakening effect which certain climatic conditions unquestionably produce, as is so well proved by the variation of the death rate from month to month, even in places where the conditions of health are most carefully looked after. Here we must leave the matter. The general agreement of the vitality map with the map of climatic energy affords strong evidence that the climatic map is correct. We are now ready to test our map of civilization in the same way that we have tested the map of climatic energy, that is, by comparing it with a map based on statistics.

Starting point is 08:38:51 Strength and energy of character cannot easily be reduced to statistics. For most of the conditions and activities for which we possess exact data depend too much upon outside circumstances and not sufficiently upon the actual qualities of the people. Professor Mark Jefferson has studied the matter carefully, and I have borrowed freely from both this published and unpublished work. It might seem as if such things as railroads, the number of letters, the amount of manufacturers, or other similar matters might furnish a good clue to the intellectual capacity and cultural development of a people, but unfortunately this is not so. Take the case of railroads. Nevada has more miles of railroad in proportion both to the number of inhabitants and the

Starting point is 08:39:33 inhabited area than any other state in the Union. In 1920, it had 1908 miles for every 10,000 inhabitants, while Rhode Island heard only 3.3 and Massachusetts 5.5. This is not mean that Nevada is more progressive than New England. The case is like that of a desert through which a cowboy was riding when he met a friend. What are you doing here? asked the friend. Nothing was the answer. I'm just crossing this year desert because it's here. In the same way, the railroads crossed Nevada because it happened to lie between the east and the west. Everywhere uninhabited, or peopled by savages, it would still have many railroads.

Starting point is 08:40:14 The letters sent out by a community furnish a criterion of its state of civilization, but even this must be used with much caution. A hundred letters sent by a Chicago mail-order house in response to orders averaging $2 a piece are no more significant than a single letter from Detroit in answer to an order for an automobile. In this case, as in many others, a concentration of activity in certain regions may occur without any correspondingly. high ability or culture. The same is true of manufacturers. Doubtless, manufacturers generally

Starting point is 08:40:47 develop whenever a community arises to a high state of civilization, and the manufacturing processes and all that goes with them are in turn a help in the development of a still higher civilization. Nevertheless, the accident supposition or the presence of natural resources are commonly supposed to cause equally progressive and competent communities to differ enormously in the number of factories. We shall examine this supposition later. We are forced, therefore, to turn to something more personal. Illiteracy and education are fairly good tests, for they depend largely on the immediate

Starting point is 08:41:21 surroundings of each individual. Illiteracy would answer the purpose excellently, were not that people had moved about so much in recent years. Education, however, is still a local matter, especially in a country like the United States. Each state and often each country or town decides for itself how much it was spent for schools how long they shall be open

Starting point is 08:41:41 and how stringently attendance shall be enforced. Hence the schools form an unusually delicate test of the real character of a community. The quality of an educational system cannot indeed be measured exactly by statistics. Nevertheless, it is fairly well indicated by certain conditions for which accurate statistics are available.

Starting point is 08:42:03 For this purpose, I have seen. selected the following data for the year 1920, from the reports the United States Commissioner of Education and from the census. 1. Percentage of young people 7 to 14 years of age to attend school. Colored children, those born in foreign countries, and the children of foreign-born parents are excluded in all to make out data as homogeneous as possible. The percentage range from 82.5 in Utah and 79.6 in Idaho to 66.9 in Maryland in Georgia, and 65.4 in Louisiana. 2.

Starting point is 08:42:39 Percentage of young people 18 years of age who graduate from a four-year course in either a public or private high school. Since colored and foreign-born parents are not distinguished from native whites in the data for high school graduates, I have assumed that all the graduates were whites and have calculated the percentage

Starting point is 08:42:57 of high school graduates accordingly. This, of course, gives the self a certain advantage and thus compensates for the fact that in using the next two criteria, it has been necessary to include coloured pupils in one case and coloured teachers in the other. It must be remembered, however, that the foreign-born population of the North East tends to lower the standards there, just as do the Negroes in the South, although not so much. The maximum percentage of high school graduates is reached in Maine, 28.6, New Hampshire, 27.8, and Oregon, 26.2. The minimum is found in Georgia 3.9 and South Carolina 2.2.

Starting point is 08:43:35 But when the allowance described above is made for coloured people, the figures become 6.6 and 4.5. 3. Average number of days per year that each pupil in the public schools was actually in attendance. Good schools as a rule are in session fairly long and always insist on a high degree of regularity in attendance. The range here is from 151.3 in New Jersey and 149.6 in Massachusetts to 76 in South Carolina and 76.9 in Mississippi. 4. Average salary of teachers. Unless teachers are well paid, the more capable young people are lucky to give up teaching for some more lucrative and less nerve-wracking occupation. Contrary to general belief, teachers are paid at about the same rate in the North East and the Far West, the maximum average is being $1,2,222 in New Jersey and $1,262 in Massachusetts compared with $1,375 in Oregon, and $1,281 in Washington. In the intermediate regions, the general scale of recompense falls lower, dropping to $1,081 in Illinois, which outrower.

Starting point is 08:44:48 ranksaw its neighbors except Ohio and to $696 in South Dakota. In the south, the level is very low, with a minimum of $426 in Georgia, and only $291 in Mississippi. 5. The excessive young men over young women among students 18 to 20 years of age. This last item may at first sight seem unimportant, but its significance grows as one studies it. It regions when the standards are low, there is a tendency for the older boys drop out of school, while the girls keep on in order to become stenographers, bookkeepers, or especially teachers. Maryland and Utah have the greatest success of boys over girls, and Wyoming, Montana,

Starting point is 08:45:32 and the Dakota's, the greatest success in girls. Figure 38 is displayed on the page, distribution of education in the United States in 1920, on basis of five factors equally weighed. 89 is displayed on the page, percentage of gainfully employed persons the United States engaged in manufacturing 2019. In using these five criteria, each one was given exactly the same weight, that is, the census figures for any given criterion were all lowered or raised proportionally, so that for each criterion the difference between the lowest and highest figures was the same.

Starting point is 08:46:08 As the number of criteria was increased, it was noticeable that the resultant map, figure 38, became more regular. In its final form, the match shows that in a relatively narrow belt extending from southern New England through New York, but not Pennsylvania, and continuing to Illinois, the general conditions of education are excellent. The same is true in Utah and on the entire Pacific coast. In those places, on the whole, a large percentage of the children are in school, a large proportion graduate from the high school, the school year is long and the pupils are regular in attendance. The teachers are well paid and many boys as well as girls continue to study after the age of 18. One or another of these conditions may

Starting point is 08:46:51 break down in any individual state but when all are taken together the heavily shaded areas in figure 38 rank high. One of the most noteworthy features of figure 38 is a relatively low position of the Dakotas and other states in the western part of the Great Plains and also the similar position of all the Rocky Mountain states with the exception of Utah. The comparatively recent settlement of some of these states explains the situation in part. But Washington is almost as new as the Dakotas or New Mexico, and yet stands in the first rank. The sparsity of population is another factor which hinders education.

Starting point is 08:47:28 Utah, however, has a population decidedly more sparse than that of the Dakotas in Wyoming, but ranks 126, where they rank from 113 to 119. This destiny of population is scarcely greater than that of New Mexico, whose rank is 110. The relatively poor conditions in the Dakoters in Wyoming find a partial explanation in the fact that the population is more completely agricultural than in almost any other part of the United States. There are no large cities, and even villages, are comparatively scarce or small. The great majority of the people live scattered over the vast plain, each family on its own

Starting point is 08:48:06 quarter section. Hence the children are obliged to go long distances to school. Muddy roads often make this difficult in the spring, while the severe storms of winter are an even greater obstacle. In spite of this, the Dakotas stand at the top in the literacy of their people so that the school system must be fairly efficient. In New Mexico, quite the contrary conditions prevail. A part of the people, to be sure, live on widely scattered ranches where the children cannot go to school. By far the larger number, however, live in compact settlements where the houses are grouped in a comparatively small area because the necessity for using a common water supply for irrigation,

Starting point is 08:48:48 or else because of mining industries. And as such conditions, schools can be maintained more easily than on huge townless plans like those of the Dakoters. The same conditions prevail in Utah and Nevada, and to let's extend in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana. rank of 117 may be less creditable than South Dakota's of 114. Yet the fact remains that the Dakotas are lower than would be expected while Utah is surprisingly high. The proud position of Utah is presumably the result of Mormonism. The leaders of that faith have had the wisdom to insist on a thorough system of schools and have obliged the children to

Starting point is 08:49:31 attend them. The Gentiles have in self-defense been forced to do equally well and the result has been admirable. Whatever one may think of Mormonism as a religious belief, it must be credited with having accomplished a remarkable work in spreading a moderate degree of education almost universally among the people of Utah. Without its influence, the rank of Utah would probably be about 118, that is, between Colorado 119, on one side and Nevada 117 on the other. I emphasize this because it shows how clearly our maps reflect the influence of any peculiar condition. Manifestly, the distribution of education throughout most of the United States does not depend upon the influence of any particular institution, for essentially the same institutions prevail everywhere. Yet in the map of education, Utah is conspicuous because it is strongly influenced by a unique American institution which is limited to one small area.

Starting point is 08:50:31 Another factor which would be expected to bear an important part in determining the distribution of education is the presence of the Negro. Doubtless this has a pronounced effect. For an inferior race inevitably retards a higher. Yet the map indicates that other factors are equally important. Not only is education at a low ebb in New Mexico, which has few Negroes, but also in West Virginia, which is comparatively free from both Negroes and Mexicans. Moreover, Texas, where the coloured people form only a fifth of the population, stands lower than South Carolina and Mississippi, where half the people are coloured. Another significant fact is that the education of Negroes varroes from state to state almost as

Starting point is 08:51:14 does that of whites. Although a smaller proportion of Negroes than of whites go to school, the two races are well or poorly educated in the same places. In Figure 38, the figures for states with a moderate number of Negroes such as Virginia, with 30% give a fairly correct impression, but the impression is not so accurate in those states where there are many Negroes. The reason is that our index figures for states with many Negroes are too high by reason of our assumption that all the high school graduates are white.

Starting point is 08:51:47 Disregarding these minor discrepancies, it seems quite clear that the degree of education is not proportional to the number of colored people. The southern states differ among themselves because of special circumstances, such as good or bad laws, but all stand lower because of more general factors. These factors give to Vigua 38 its general character and seem to make it as good an epitome of the general distribution of culture in the United States as we are yet able to obtain on the basis of the statistics of a single activity. Nevertheless, it can scarcely be doubted that the general level of the South is much lower

Starting point is 08:52:23 than it would be if there never had been any colored people there. but that would not change the general aspect of figure 38. Let us now compare our educational map with figure 37, which represents the distribution of civilisation in the United States, according to the opinion of 23 people. All of these except Ambassador Bryce were Americans. They grouped the states and provinces of the United States and Canada into six classes, number six being the highest.

Starting point is 08:52:52 Massachusetts is the only states invariably placed in the highest class. New Mexico and Arizona would stand lowest have an average rank of 1.6. In order to judge how much reliance to place on the classifications, I took the first 10 that were received and averaged them, and when 10 more had come into hand, averaged them also. Somewhat to my surprise, as much to my pleasure, the two sets of averages were practically identical. How much they differed may be seen in the appendix.

Starting point is 08:53:23 The average difference is only 0.2, and the maximum 0.6. The agreement of the two sets probably indicates that any other group of equally well-informed persons would have made essentially the same classification. To be sure, in spite of several attempts, I was unable to attain any contributor in the Statesworth of Minnesota or south of the Ohio River. Local prejudices, however, have probably not exerted much effect on the final results. For California stands in the highest class, with practically the same grade as Minnesota and Iowa. A comparison of the maps of Civilization, Figure 37, and Education, Figure 38, is interesting. In general aspect, the two are similar. Both have two high areas, one of the northeast and center and the other on the Pacific coast.

Starting point is 08:54:14 In both there is a decline from north to south. Another common feature is a tongue of high conditions, jutting out toward Kansas. This eastern high area and its western counterpart are almost identical with those of the map of civilized. In both maps, Massachusetts takes first place. In the map of progress, Connecticut, New York and Ohio come next. World three been equal. In the educational map, the rank is Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, California, Ohio, Utah, Oregon, and then New York. Judging by this, our recent contributors to the map of progress did not quite do justice to the Pacific coast.

Starting point is 08:54:54 Nevertheless, the differences among the states just as to the Pacific Coast. among the states just mentioned are too slight to be important. The only real discrepancies between figures, 37 and 38, are the high position of Utah in the educational map, which has already been explained, and the absence of the low tongue jutting into Nevada. This is perhaps due in part to an undue lowering of the general educational level of the southeast by reason of the Negroes.

Starting point is 08:55:20 Also the contributors to the map of progress probably paid too much attention to aridity, sparseness of population and the ephemal character of mining towns, and not enough to the fact that the inherent quality of the people of newly settled regions is almost invariably high. The process of selection incident to migration, so I've shown in the character of races, goes far to ensure such quality, provided that migration is unassisted and is beset with sufficient difficulty. In concluding this chapter, let us look at another criterion which is often supposed to

Starting point is 08:55:55 to be closely associated with civilization. This is the percentage of the population engaged in manufacturing. It is often asserted that manufacturing is most predominant in places where supplies of coal and iron are present, but this is a mistake. A mathematical analysis of the states of the United States, by means of correlation, coefficients, shows that there is no relation whatever between the amount of coal mine per inhabitant and the percentage of the population engaged in manufacturing. In the world as a whole, the same is true. We've been misled by the accidental circumstance that England, Western Europe and the United States have to be places where coal is very abundant.

Starting point is 08:56:34 But relatively speaking, those regions stood just as high in civilization before the age of machinery as since. They were leaders then as now. The important factor in determining the presence of manufacturing is to character and energy of the people. If anyone doubts this, let him study the progress of manufacturing in Switzerland. Sweden, New England, Japan, or on our own Pacific coast, in spite of small supplies of coal. Hence, Figure 89, page 224, showing the percentage of the population engaged in manufacturing, is in many ways a map of the distribution of progress. It also reflects the location of certain natural resources such as cotton in the south

Starting point is 08:57:13 and a Cuban tobacco which is manufactured on a large scale in Florida, at Tampa and Jacksonville. Nevertheless, the main aspects of figure 39 are surprising like those of figures 37 and 38. The similarity of our maps of education and manufacturing to one, another, and to the map of progress based on the opinions of our 23 contributors is too close to be accidental. It seems to show that all three present a fairly accurate betrayal of the actual distribution of human progress, since our two maps of climatic energy likewise not only resemble one another, but are closely similar to the map of mortality. We may feel fairly sure that in all parts of the world,

Starting point is 08:57:55 the same relationship holds true. End of Section 12. Section 13 of Civilization and Climate by Osworth Huntington. This is a Librevox according, all Librevox Accordings in the public domain. For more information to volunteer, please visit Librevox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey.

Starting point is 08:58:20 Chapter 13, The Conditions of Civilization. We have now reached a crucial point in our investigation. We must compare the distribution of civilization and of climatic energy. The reader has doubtless noticed that our maps of climatic energy in the United States, whether based on factory work or health, display an unmistakable similarity to the maps of human progress based on education, manufacturing, and general opinion. In spite of minor discrepancies, all the maps show the following features. 1. A high area elongated east and west from New England and New Jersey to a little beyond the Mississippi.

Starting point is 08:59:00 2. Another a much narrow area elongated north and south along the immediate coast of the Pacific Ocean. 3. A decline from north to south in the east. And 4. A low bay running across the country in the rocking mountain region. With a pronounced accentuation in the dry southwest. While these details are fresh in mind, let us turn to three maps of Europe showing the relation of climatic energy, figure 40, health, figure 41, and progress figure 42. The map of climatic energy is based on our factory data, but with some modification, because we have found that the optimum temperature of health is 64 degrees or 65 degrees rather than 60 degrees,

Starting point is 08:59:42 as was inferred from factory work. The second map shows the distribution of health. It is based on the official mortality statistics of the European countries for the years 1909 to 1913. Infants under one year of age and old people over 75 have been admitted because the figures for those groups, especially the infants, are unreliable. The data for other ages have been reduced to what is called a standard population, so that differences in age and in the proportion of children from country to country have been eliminated. The map shows the actual distribution of health in Europe under normal conditions. The third map illustrates the distribution

Starting point is 09:00:22 of civilization. It is the same as figure 23 in the chapter on civilization, but it's reproduced here in another form in order that it may easily be compared with the other two. Figure 40 is displayed on the page, distribution of climatic energy in Europe. These three maps are so much alike that if their titles were removed, most people would not be able to tell which is which. In each map, an area of heavy shading surrounds the North Sea and shades off gradually in every direction. In each there are three projections of heavy shading, one toward Italy, a second toward the Black Sea, and a third along the Baltic. Fuga 41 is displayed on the page, distribution of health in Europe.

Starting point is 09:01:07 Vika 42 is displayed on the page, distribution of civilization in Europe. The maps are so much alike that there can scarcely be any question as to the reality of their relationship, and that relationship can be of only one kind. Civilization and progress undoubtedly influence health, and health in turn has an effect on progress, but neither civilization or health can have any appreciable effect upon the distribution of climate. The only way in which the three maps can be so alike,

Starting point is 09:01:37 less by sheer accident, which is practically impossible, is for climate to exert a direct and dominating influence upon the distribution of health, at an indirect and perhaps less dominating influence upon civilization throughout agencies such as agriculture. Now turn to the world as a whole. Unfortunately, the mortality records of many backward countries are highly inaccurate, while for vast areas they are wholly lacking. Hence it is impossible to construct a map of health.

Starting point is 09:02:06 We can, however, construct maps shown the distribution of climatic energy and of civilization. A map of climatic energy based on factory work has already been given in figure 22. This is repeated in figure 43. The map of civilization on the same page. Figure 44 sums up the data already shown in figure 23 to 28. All the regions to which are 50 contributors that sign a rake of 8.5 or higher are rated as very high and are shaded in solid black. Those from 7 to 8.5 are rated as high and are shaded in heavy lines.

Starting point is 09:02:40 Those from 5 to 7 are medium and are indicated by light lines. 3 to 5 low, shaded with abundant dots, and under 3 very low, and dotted only lightly. The first thing that attracts attention is the general resemblance between the maps of energy and of civilization. Both, for example, show a high area in northwestern Europe. A tongue extends into Italy, another towards Romania, and a third to the Baltic. Another projection runs into the western Siberia. Here the high area of the map of civilization extends about as far as a medium area of the map of energy. This is not surprising, for even if the people of Siberia have the energy indicated in figure 43,

Starting point is 09:03:25 they are hampered by the remoteness and newest of their country, not to mention other conditions. Figure 43 is displayed on the page, distribution of human health and energy on the basis of climate. Figure 44 is displayed on the page the distribution of civilization. In central and northern Siberia, the difference between the two maps is slight. The significant thing is that in both there is the same falling off toward the centre of Asia. Still farther eastern China and Japan, conditions are once more alike, China being medium and Japan high. In Indo-China, and especially in India, the maps differ. Apparently, this arises largely from European domination, and is due to the constant addition

Starting point is 09:04:11 strength from that continent. This is not applied to CM, however, which is worked at its own salvation. It ranks as very low on the energy map, and only as low on the other. This may have no significance, for our maps are still in their early stages. Further knowledge may change such slight disagreements into agreements. On the other hand, it may increase the disagreement. In that case we may discover that, by long residence within the tropics, the races of the races of Indochina and India have become differentiated from Europeans and less susceptible to the influence of steady heat. Again, race differs from race in its inheritance, and the Siamese may inherit stronger traits than are possessed by their neighbors. Finally, the level of Siamese civilization

Starting point is 09:04:59 may have been raised by contact with other races, by the adoption of particular institutions of government, forms of religion, or social organization, or by the inspiration and energy of a few men of unusual gifts. I mention these possibilities not because they are of special importance in SAM, but because they illustrate the many and varied influences which cooperate to determine the position of a country in the scale of civilization. In comparing the maps of energy and civilization, one of the clearest features is the effect of a strong race upon regions

Starting point is 09:05:32 which it rules or colonizes. Again and again the presence of such a race causes a region to be higher in civilized, they will be expected on the basis of climatic energy. Java, the Philippines and India are examples. It is especially noticeable in regions controlled by Great Britain. In Australia, for instance, the general decrease in both civilization and energy from southeast to northwest is the same in both maps. But the presence of the English raises the places of very low energy to low in civilization. And so on, each grade being raised one degree, so to speak,

Starting point is 09:06:09 so to speak, until the map of civilization shows a large high area in the southeast. In South Africa and Egypt, British influence is displayed in the same way. In the Canadian Northwest, on the other hand, it is not apparent. The northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan appear higher in energy than in civilization. We have already seen that according to American and to this extent British opinion, this is not the case. For recent settlement has raised these regions to a comparatively high degree of culture. In the United States, the energy map shows a strip of medium conditions along the southern frontier, but this is rated as high on the other map.

Starting point is 09:06:53 Such a condition illustrates how a high type of government causes efficient people to settle in unfavorable regions, and how it also adds to the effectiveness of less efficient people, such as Mexicans and Negroes, thus in part overcoming the handicap of climate. In the central states, on the other hand, civilization is not rated so high as one would expect on the climatic basis. Probably this is because the country is so new that our Chinese, Russian and Spanish and other foreign contributors, though they have traveled and studied extensively, do not realize how great is a progress of recent times. California, like the southern states, is higher on the map of civilization than on the other. As already explained, this may in part be due to this.

Starting point is 09:07:39 the impossibility of making a wholly accurate map of climatic energy. It may also arise from location of California on the seaboard, from its early development, as contrasts with the newer states of the interior. A comparison of the United States as it appears on the world maps, and as it appears on the maps of their country alone, is important. Where the country stands by itself, and its past are classified by people who live in it, and are thoroughly familiar with it, the resemblance between climatic energy and civilization is greater than where the classification is on a rough scale, and it's made by people less familiar with it.

Starting point is 09:08:17 Another reason for the difference is that of classification of places where a uniform standard of culture prevails and where the same race is everywhere dominant, is much easier than where many types of culture and highly diverse races are considered. The maps of the United States represent the kind, which must be made for each country. The difference between the features of the United States and the world map and on the other represents the extent to which our general map of civilization is in error. In spite of this, however, the general features of the country are unmistakably the same on both maps.

Starting point is 09:08:52 So far as the conclusions of this volume are concerned, it makes no difference which we use. In this lies the importance of our various tests of the United States. They show that although much remains to be done before we can construct a map, which is approximately perfect. The most important features are reasonably distinct and unmistakable. Turning to Latin America, we find about what would be expected in Mexico and Central America. The highlands are medium and the lowlands low. South America, on the contrary, presents some unexpected features.

Starting point is 09:09:27 The Andean highlands, including Venezuela, Colombia, Yucador, Peru and Bolivia, are all ranked as low in civilization, whereas the climatic map would indicate medium energy. In the belt of highlands on the east side of Africa, the same phenomenon is observable. Perhaps an equatorial climate is more debilitating than would be expected from the work of factory operatives in summer. In South America, the presence of an ancient race whose vigour was already waning at the time of the discovery of the new world, as doubtless hindered Spanish immigrants in accomplishing what might other words have been looked for. This, however, does not alter the case, for the original

Starting point is 09:10:06 the original inhabitants in the Andean countries, just as in the African highlands, stand lower than would be expected. Argentina, on the contrary, goes to the opposite extreme, and is higher on the map of civilization than on that of energy. The importance of this must not be overrated, for the climatic data are somewhat doubtful because of the paucity of statistics as to changes of temperature from day to day. As the maps now stand, however, they are encouraging, for they suggest that Even with a moderately favourable climate, the Latin race in America is competent to rise to a high level.

Starting point is 09:10:45 Let us now turn from these details and look once more at the general aspect of the two maps. In spite of minor disagreements, the main features are essentially alike. There are, in each case, the same two great high areas in Western Europe and the United States. The decline from Western Russia-Eastwick to the centre of Asia and the rise to high conditions on the eastern edge of Asia, in Japan are equally apparent. Likewise, the maps are striking alike in the shape of the very low areas of Africa and South America. South latitude 30 degrees south, each of the southern continents begins to rise in energy and in civilization, and the rise is more pronounced on the eastern side than on the western. Even where the maps disagree, the explanation

Starting point is 09:11:31 of the disagreement is often obvious from a consideration of the recent movements of European peoples. Some of the remaining discrepancies are explicable on well-known grounds, such as the impossibility of agriculture which hinders civilization in the far northern parts of America and Asia. In addition to all this, many differences in the degree of progress among people in similar climates are due to racial inheritance. A conspicuous example of this sort, as I've shown in the character of races, is a contrast between the progressive Icelanders and the backward people who live in a similar climate in the southern tip of South America. A still more conspicuous example is the difference between the primitive hill tribes of India

Starting point is 09:12:14 and the highly competent Parsis, whose ancestors came to India more than a thousand years ago because of their loyalty to the old Zoroastrian religion. When allowance is made for obvious facts like these, the resemblance between the two maps becomes more striking. Call to mind the method of their construction. Neither represents the personal opinion or bias of any one man. Any other person with the same data before him would have obtained similar results. The maps simply give expression to two distinct sects of facts.

Starting point is 09:12:49 The first is that the opinion of men of many races agrees as to the general distribution of civilization. The second is that of the various conditions of climate produced the same effect upon all the people of the world as upon students and factory operatives in the eastern United States. States, the amount of work accomplished in different countries would be closely proportional to the status of civilization. Aside from the map of climatic energy, it is hard to think of any other which would so closely reproduce the features of the map of civilization. Suppose that race were made through criterion, and that a map was shaded in proportion

Starting point is 09:13:28 to the number of Teutons. We should find that in Europe such a map would closely resemble the map of civilization, except that places like Finland, southern France, Central Italy, Hungary, Bohemia, Serbia, and others are relatively high-end civilization, even though none are more than half of Teutonic, and some only very slightly, or almost unappreciably so. In Asia, on the other hand, there is much more Teutonic blood in Syria and Asia Minor than in Japan, in Japan ranks far higher. The Japanese might claim racial superiority almost as fairly as the Teutons, and both

Starting point is 09:14:07 the Latins and Slavs may justly point to the fact that they predominate in some of the most advanced portions of the globe. When we look at the low places, we find that Teutonic areas, such as the Transvaal, Alaska, southern Greenland, and parts of Australia, make a poor showing. The Latins in parts of Latin America are even worse. The Slavs at their worst fall no lower than the Teutons, while the Japanese nowhere fall so low. A map of religion does not resemble a map of civilization, no matter which religion is employed. Protestant Christianity, indeed, prevails chiefly in regions which are either high or very high.

Starting point is 09:14:46 Iceland is by no means in exception, for its civilization is much higher than would appear from our table where it is grouped with Greenland. Roman Catholic Christianity, on the other hand, prevails in locations which range from very high to very low, and Greek Christianity from high to low. Buddhism, likewise, ranges from high in Japan to low in Tibet, while Mohammedism never rises above medium, and in some places falls very low. That religion raises or lowers the tone of our country, I do not for a moment question. But if the people are fiscally weak and are lacking in self-control because of something in their surroundings, the history of the world is exemplified by groups of people who have long been nominally Christians in Abyssinia, India, Latin America and elsewhere,

Starting point is 09:15:30 seem to show that they debase even the finest religion. The higher the form of religion and the more self-sacrifice and devotion requires, the more difficult it becomes to keep any by the most energetic and determined races even approximately true to it. The only cases where people of low efficiency seem to remain true to a hard religion are where they are continuously stimulated by the presence of a stronger race. As a third criterion, suppose we take form of government, and acquire whether a map of governments would resemble one of civilization.

Starting point is 09:16:06 Of course, the excellence of the government is closely related to the degree of civilization, but not so with the form. Republics range from very high in Switzerland and France to very low in Venezuela. Limited but autocratic monarchies existed in high countries like Germany, at least before the Great War, and also in low countries like Turkey and Persia. Thus, we might go on to consider one after another of the great factors, which cooperate in giving form to modern civilization. The nature of a nation's religious faith,

Starting point is 09:16:37 its form of government, its social organization, its ease of intercourse with other nations and various other conditions play a fundamental part in the distribution of civilization. Eich is conditioned by the degree of energy possessed by a people, for if a race lacks energy, no amount of excellence along other lines will place it in the first rank. Energy, in turn, is greatly influenced by climate,

Starting point is 09:16:59 and thus climate becomes an essential element in determining the status of civilization. We may well reverse our statement, however, and say that no amount of energy will make a nation great, if none of its people have gifted with genius, or never evolves an ordinary form of government, or a moral code which allows a man to enjoy life, property, and home without constant fear of outsiders. Thus the material and immaterial elements of civilization play into each other in such a way, that either seems the more important according to the angle from which we view it. The interplay of diverse factors is so important that it is worthwhile to examine it in a concrete case. Dr. Scott Nearing in the Popular Science Monthly for 1914 published an article entitled

Starting point is 09:17:47 The Geographical Distribution of American Genius. While it is impossible to measure genius, it is impossible to ascertain how many people of unusual ability are born in a given region. That useful publication Who's Who in America, though not infallible, forms a good summary of about 20,000 people who have either achieved special prominence in credible lines of effort,

Starting point is 09:18:10 making them the subjects of extensive interest, inquiry, or discussion in this country, or who occupy positions, which can scarcely be attained except by persons of unusual ability. Taking the Who's Who for 1912 to 1913 as a basis, nearing has tabulated the birthplaces

Starting point is 09:18:27 are the first 10,000 names according to states. He took only 10,000 because the number seemed enough to give reliable results. His tabulation strikingly reinforces the common opinion that New England, especially Massachusetts, has produced far more than its proportionate share of persons of unusual ability. The utility of his investigation seems so great, and the methods are reliable that I have asked Dr. Nearing for permission to make use of full of data than were contained in his article, and he has kindly supplied me with the figures for each state.

Starting point is 09:19:01 In order to determine the relative status of the various parts of the country, it is not fair to compare the number of eminent persons who were born in a given area with the present population. At the time with the men who were now prominent were born, many of the Western states contained only a handful of settlers. It is equally unfair to compare the number of such persons who live in a given region with a present population, for many persons who have achieved prominence

Starting point is 09:19:27 owe it to the place where they grew up and not to where they now live. The only fair way seems to be to ascertain the relation between the number of eminent persons born in a given region and the population of the region at the time of their birth. Accordingly, the first thing to do is to find when the people and who's who were born.

Starting point is 09:19:48 Nearing gives us the following table. A table is displayed on the page, number of eminent persons in the notes, States in 1912, who were born at certain times. Before 1850, 2,818, 1850 to 1859, 2,715, 1860 to 1869, 2,717, 1870 to 1879, 1,304, 1880 to 1889, 85, 1890 to 18909, 1890 to 1899. 2, unknown, 349, total 10,000. The number who were born before 1840 is not given, but it must be considerable for the people who attain eminence are among the most long-lived portions of the community.

Starting point is 09:20:38 On the other hand, the number who were born after 1880 is too small to be considered. People rarely become eminent before they are at least 35 years of age. The 40 years from 1835 to 1875 cover the births of practically all who have attained sufficient distinction to be included in the who's who for 90s. Accordingly, we must find the average population of each state, according to the census from 1840 to 1870, but inasmuch as a number who were born previous to 1840 is less than in latter decades, we shall come nearer to the truth if we give that census only half as much weight as the others.

Starting point is 09:21:15 In all cases, we employ the figures for the entire white population, whether native or immigrant, but admit the Negroes, Chinese and Indians. The way in which the matter works out is illustrated in the following table, where the population is given in thousands. The tables are split on the page, comparing Massachusetts, South Carolina, Nebraska, and New Mexico, with a wide population in thousands divided between 1840, 1840, 1870, and the average of 1840 to 270, the number of eminent persons and eminent persons per 100,000. The figures in the last column show the relative rank of these states in the production of persons

Starting point is 09:21:58 of unusual ability from 1835 to 1875. Similar figures for each state are given in figure 45. Since Nearing used only the first 10,000 names of American-born persons in Who's Who are only about 60% of the total, the index figures really mean the number of eminent persons for every 60,000 people instead of 100,000. In a few cases where the average population previous to 1875 was less than 10,000, two or more adjacent states have been combined, so to give a total large enough to be significant. The numbers thus obtained have been enclosed in parentheses.

Starting point is 09:22:38 On the map, the United States has been divided into four grades, much as in figures 34 to 39. Thus all these maps are comparable. The only essential difference is that figure 45 belongs to a period average. emerging more than half a century earlier than the others. It presents the most accurate picture now available of the distribution of ability at that time. New states are at no disadvantage compared with the old, for if a region had no population previous to 1860, for example, and only a few thousand 1870, full allowance is made for this. Many of our 10,000 eminent people have moved away from their early homes, but the great majority

Starting point is 09:23:18 did not go until they had at least reached an age approaching 20 and the main elements of their character were already formed. Thus the peculiarities of the map depend not only on whether the population was of such a calibre that children of high ability were produced, but also on the conditions which moulded the early life of such children. Aside from accidents, three chief conditions determine the number of eminent persons in a community. The first is inherited ability. unless a man is born with more than the average mental capacity, their chances of his inclusion in who's who are slight. The second edition is opportunity in the broadest sense of the world.

Starting point is 09:23:58 A bright child born on a remote farm in Maine, or a ranch in Arizona, or in a clearing among the Tennessee mountains, may be so hampered by lack of education and of the stimulus derived from contact with people outside his own little circle, that he never accomplishes anything that attracts attention. The third condition is energy. Many a man of high ability, who is also blessed with the best education and with all sorts of opportunities to develop his talents, fails to make any impression on the world because he is indolent. Frequently, a man of less ability, but a doubt with energy achieves much more. Energy depends partially on inheritance, but also on climate.

Starting point is 09:24:38 So far as it depends on inheritance, it should be included under the first of our three conditions. Thus, the three may be briefly defined as, one, inherited qualities of all kinds, two opportunities which include education, the degree of culture and a community, and the freedom with which a person can find scope for his particular talents. And three, energy so far as this depends upon physical circumstances, not connected with either heredity or opportunity. Let us now inspect Figure 45 to see how far our three conditions make themselves evident. Each gives rise to certain features which stand

Starting point is 09:25:18 out unmistakably. To begin with inheritance, Massachusetts gave birth to 98 eminent person for every 60,000 of its white population during the specified period. That is, one white child at every 600 born at that time has distinguished himself. The figures further surrounding New England states and New York range from 50 to 78, such a striking different, and the difference is certainly not due to climate. It is equally certain that it is not due to opportunity. The average child in New York has as good a chance to go to school and enter any sort of occupation, as has the child in Massachusetts. Yet the rank of New York is only half as high as that of Massachusetts. In Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire, the opportunities are distinctly less than in New York. There is much less wealth.

Starting point is 09:26:07 The people are more isolated. The number of cities is proportionally smaller. The common school system is no better developed, and the facilities for sending children to college are not so great. Yet even may now drinks New York, for she produced 54 eminent persons per 60,000, while New York produced only 50, yet New York itself stands very high. Aside from the New England states, only Nebraska exceeds it, while Oregon and Delaware rival it. South Carolina is another state which stands far higher than its neighbors, for although 89 is low compared with the 78 of Connecticut, For example, it is high compared with the 24 North Carolina and 25 of Georgia. Probably hereditary plays an important part here, as in other cases, although as we shall surely see, the matter is complicated by other conditions.

Starting point is 09:26:59 Oregon and especially Nebraska, however, are unmistakable. Proportionally, they stand as high above their neighbors as Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont above theirs. Figure 45 is displayed on the page, birthplaces of persons of unusual ability in the United States. The numerals indicate the number of eminent persons born in each state per 60,000 of the average white population from 1835 to 1875. The case of these two states is most suggestive. So far as energy is concerned, there is nothing in the climate of either Oregon or Nebraska to give them a special advantage. previous to 1890, by which time the education of four-fifths of the people in Whose Who was completed.

Starting point is 09:27:46 These two states do not offer their children especially great opportunities. In fact, the opportunities were much less than in Oregon's next neighbor, California, or in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, the state's directly east of Nebraska. Yet Oregon ranks 30% higher than California, and Nebraska exceeds Illinois as where 60% and Indiana by over 90%. In striking contrast to Nebraska, we find New Mexico with a rank of only 1.5, which appears as 2 on the map because we have avoided the use of fractions. Here again neither climate nor opportunities explain why this state falls so far behind its

Starting point is 09:28:26 neighbours. The only reasonable explanation is that until 1870 or later its white population consisted almost wholly of Mexicans. In reading the preceding pages, it may have occurred to the reader that the preeminence of New England is only apparent, not real. It may be due largely to the local purchases or limited viewpoint of the compilers of Who's Who. This is not the case, however.

Starting point is 09:28:51 The book is edited and published in Chicago, yet Illinois and the neighboring states all receive a relatively low rank. The facts just stated are of profound significance. Massachusetts, because she was settled by the strong-willed pilgrim fathers, and and by other Puritans who fled to the wilderness to maintain their high ideals, have produced far more their proportion of the men who have made America what it is. Connecticut and Rhode Island for similar reasons have followed closely on their heels, while the northern New England states have much more than hild their own compared with the rest of the country.

Starting point is 09:29:27 It has been a fad to decry puritanism, but people of Puritan descent have taken the foremost place. They have done so because they inherit the strength of mind, made it possible for the Puritan fathers to develop their stern conscientious system and carry out their noble purposes in the face of temptation and opposition. When that old stock has been transported to places such as Nebraska and Oregon, where, for a while it was dominant before the great tide of later immigration, it raised the average ability to a level which nowhere else except in New England. In New Mexico, on the contrary, we harbor a group of people, fortunately small, who are

Starting point is 09:30:07 even more conspicuous by their lack of ability than the New Englanders are in the opposite way. We may excuse the Mexicans by saying that they do not learn our language and do not merge themselves in our civilization. The competent Mexicans, however, usually those who possess the greatest proportion of Spanish blood, do learn English and make themselves felt among us. The others, perhaps because they inherit and an inert disposition from their Indian ancestors, are content to remain backward. This brings up the great question of immigration and racial character. In the earliest states of colonization, we received only the stronger elements of the various European populations. The north had its pilgrims, Puritans, Quakers and others. Well, in the southern states, a part of the

Starting point is 09:30:52 settlers were people who, as huguenots, or other religious refugees, were notable for tenacity of purpose and high ideals. The rest of the settlers were in large measure people of unusual courage and initiative, for others were not brave enough to come. For this reason, apparently, the states of the Atlantic coast from Georgia northward stand higher than those west of them. After America's been settled so long that migration thither was easily, we began to get immigrants of medium grade, not the best nor the worst, but from advanced countries and from the substantial middle classes.

Starting point is 09:31:30 These are what predominate from Pennsylvania to Iowa. They are good material, but not so good as the old. Otherwise, why should so fine a state as Wisconsin have produced only half as many eminent men per 100,000, as as Connecticut, and no more than South Carolina, which labours under far greater disadvantages? In these last decades, we are taking into our midst many people scarcely better than the Mexicans.

Starting point is 09:32:00 We may say that we choose about absorbing them and making them good Americans. Here's our duty to do so as far as we can, but why blind ourselves to the facts of biology? Plow horses cannot race like thoroughbreds. Do men gather grapes of thorns or figs of thistles? Today, Massachusetts and New England seem to be losing their supremacy

Starting point is 09:32:24 in the production of men of special ability. A study of Who's Who for 1920s. Shows that the conditions of 10 years earlier still prevail, although less marked. But where the old New England families have sent their sons out over the wild expanse of our land, the loss to the mother states is more than compensated by the gain to the rest of the country. Unfortunately, the change means more than that. It means first that we are steadily diluting our strength.

Starting point is 09:32:53 We are acting as wood a dairy man who thought that by adding a dozen low-grade animals to his herd of a hundred prize winners and letting them breed together, he was going to increase the value of his stock. In addition to this, we are losing in another and more dangerous way. It is as if the dairyman should not only add poor animals, but should also prevent his best animals from bearing young. No amount of care would make the low-grade animals give as much milk, or be of as much value as surprise winners. Man is subject to the same biological laws as animals.

Starting point is 09:33:26 High mental ability and strength of purpose are his most valuable qualities. Yet we act as if we thought that though these are not really, reproduced, our country can continue to advance. Our unwillingness to live simply either prevents a large proportion of our most competent men and women from marrying, or causes many of those who marry to have few children. All men are not created equal biologically, and it is the best who are dying out. We must recognise that fat, and act upon it, before we have worked here at parable injury. All this has been said many times by eugenists, but it must be repeated again of the same. again until it is not only believed but acted upon.

Starting point is 09:34:07 Biology teaches it, common sense insists upon it, and now are purely geographical studies enforce the same conclusion. The second condition which controls the distribution of people who attain eminence is opportunity. This appears unmistakably in only one portion of figure 45, but there it stands out sharply. Notice how West Virginia, with 19 eminent persons per 100,000, Tennessee with 18, and at Kansas, 11, fall below the surrounding states. This is apparently because these are the portions of the south, where mountains and other physiographic disadvantages

Starting point is 09:34:45 cause the people to degenerate into poor whites and crackers in spite of a good inheritance. What these backward communities need is a chance. They need the opportunities that are brought by schools, railroads, factories, and the other are pretendances of civilization. They need also the opportunity brought by freedom from such bodily afflictions as a hookworm disease. Kentucky, which now, as a rank of 23, would probably stand much higher,

Starting point is 09:35:13 were not a large part of this state peopled by mountain whites. The same is true of North Carolina. Perhaps this state would not equal South Carolina, which had a large number of old families of unusual ability, but the two would be much nearer than now. A large fraction of North Carolina consists either of mountains or of swampy, unhealthy tracks along the coast, while South Carolina is almost free from such disadvantages.

Starting point is 09:35:40 In another portion of the country, it may be that Maine lags behind New Hampshire and Vermont, in part because of a relative remoteness and lack of opportunity. Doubtless other places show the same conditions, but the matter is not certain. For example, Nevada's low position with a rank of only 15 is probably due in part to this cause, but it is doubtful whether she has been much of,

Starting point is 09:36:02 worse off than Utah, which has a respectable rank of 36. Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas certainly had no more opportunities than Nevada previous to 1890, for they were supplied with fewer railroads, and were much less easily in touch with the rest of the world. Yet their rank is 33, or more than twice that of Nevada. Taking the map as a whole, it seems that although opportunity is highly important, it is less important than heredity. The preceding paragraph stands, as it was written 10 years ago. Today I am inclined to think that I have not given sufficient weight to inheritance in

Starting point is 09:36:43 estimating the position of the mountain whites. Note first, however, that in figure 36, where climatic energy is estimated on the basis of the effect of climate on health, the mountain white region, by reason of its altitude, forms a peninsula of more favorable conditions jutting southward. Some non-climatic factor seems completely to overshadow this climatic condition. That this other factor is in part of the isolation of the mountain valleys, I do not doubt. But this is probably supplemented to a large degree by inheritance. When people are able to move freely from one region to another,

Starting point is 09:37:19 there is a strong tendency for those who are most competent to gain possession of the best places. The rich cotton soil of the black belt of Georgia and Alabama, R.M. Harper is well shown, as attracted and held a large number of unusually competent families, the kind that produced leaders. In such a region, the lands of the less competent people are gradually bought by the competent. The less competent often move into the mountains, where land is cheap. There is likewise a backward movement whereby the most competent mountaineers drift to the lowlands. Thus in course of time, there arises a genuine inherent difference of mobility, and that may be one cause of the backwardness of the mountain whites.

Starting point is 09:38:05 Turning now to a last factor, that is, energy as determined climate, we see that in general the outlines of figure 45 are like those of the climatic map in figure of 36. To be sure there are important differences, for instance, the very high area which covers all the north-eastern center of the country in the energy map, is split into a New England and a Nebraska portion in the map of ability. Yet the Nebraska area of many eminent people displays an interesting resemblance to the tongue, which projects out in the same direction on the energy map. The Pacific coast is likewise high on both maps, although there are differences of detail.

Starting point is 09:38:46 Nevada, too, is at the head of a tongue of low conditions in both cases. On the Atlantic coast, both maps rise from Maine to Massachusetts, and declined from New York to Florida. In the map of Ability, however, higher conditions go somewhat farther south than in the other map, and South Carolina, presumably because of heredity, rises unexpectedly. The other southern states from Georgia to Louisiana

Starting point is 09:39:13 are also a little higher on the Ability Map than on its companion, probably because of the wealth and opportunities which prevailed in them, previous to the Civil War, or else because of the abundance of old families with high ideals and strong minds. Yet even these states are lower than the tier of northern states

Starting point is 09:39:32 from Pennsylvania to Iowa, where the average inheritance is probably no higher, even as high, but where the climate gives energy. Taken as a whole, the map of ability is an admirable example of the way in which a variety of factors cooperate in determining the status of civilization. Climate, as it were, paints the broad background, shading gradually from very high in certain areas to lower in others.

Starting point is 09:39:58 Then the other factors come into play. They paint fresh colours which may or may not resemble those of climate. In some cases such as Massachusetts, the same colour is laid on by climate, heredity and opportunity, not to mention proximity to the sea and to Europe, facilities for manufacturing, and various other factors which perhaps may be considered as opportunities. Where that happens, high civilization is sure to prevail.

Starting point is 09:40:27 In other cases such as South Carolina, the climate paints only a moderately high color. Inheritance paints a higher one, education are low, the presence of the Negroes are still lower and so on indefinitely. Such then is the meaning of our maps. They do not indicate that climate is the only factor in determining the condition of civilization or even the main one, far from it. Yet they indicate that it is as essential as any other. Today's civilization seems to make great progress, only when a stimulating climate exists. A high civilization may be carried from such places to others, but it makes a vigorous growth and is fruitful and new ideas only where the climate gives men energy.

Starting point is 09:41:11 Elsewhere it lags, or is kept at a high pitch only by constant reinforcements from all favor of regions. In the past, men have perceived that climate is apparently one of the most important conditions which favour or retard the growth of civilization. They have been greatly impressed not only by its effects upon their own bodies and minds, but by the fact that in warm countries, the amount of progress is closely in harmony with what would be expected on the basis of one's own feelings. At the same time, they have realized that among countries located in the same latitude, there are differences of culture almost as great as between temperate or tropical countries. This is seen to indicate that climate is not so important as the tropical regions

Starting point is 09:41:57 would suggest. Now, however, we see that when people's actual achievements under various climatic conditions are measured, we must revive our opinion. Variations of temperature from day to day are much more important than has been realized. Therefore, in the same latitude, the stimulating effect to the climate may differ greatly. The civilization of the world varies, almost precisely as we should expect if human energy were one of the essential conditions, and if energy were in large measure dependent upon climate. End of Section 13. Section 14 of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington.

Starting point is 09:42:45 This is a Libravox according, or Librevox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Librovox.org. Recorded by Leon Harvey. chapter fourteen the shifting of climatic zones we now have before us the main hypothesis of this book as stated at the end of the last chapter but even if many facts suggest that civilization at present varies from place to place almost precisely as we should expect if it were dependent on climatic energy and health is there not abundant evidence to the contrary three objections that once present themselves 1. The great nations of antiquity developed their culture in regions where the climate is now relatively unstimulating. 2. The American Indians, even when they lived in some of the world's best climates, failed to evolve a high civilization. 3. People of European races are today

Starting point is 09:43:41 maintaining and developing a high civilization in relatively unstimulating climates such as that of Northern Australia. Each of these objections is highly significant and must receive careful attention, the verse will form the subject of the present chapter. In a series of books among which the pulse of Asia, Palestine and its transformation, and climatic changes are the most important, I have set forth the hypothesis that during historic times the Earth's climate has been subject to pulsatory changes. It cannot be too clearly understood that this hypothesis was not framed with reference to the hypothesis of civilization and climate presented in this book.

Starting point is 09:44:24 It was developed independently before I realized how closely the distribution of civilization is bound up with that of climate. In fact, the hypothesis of climatic changes was what led originally to the studies described in this book. The steps which have led to this hypothesis may be summed up as follows. In many parts of Asia, Africa and America, ruins of towns and cities are located, where now the supply of water seems utterly inadequate. Old strands surround lakes that are now dry. Old alluvial terraces which lie remains of human occupation show that the rivers have changed

Starting point is 09:45:02 their habits of erosion and deposition since men began to become civilized. Old roads transverse deserts where caravans cannot now travel, traces of dry springs are seen. Bridges span channels which carry no water for years at a time. Old fields are walled and terraced in places which now the rain falls too scanty to permit agriculture and where no water can be brought for irrigation. Elsewhere old irrigation canals are bound in districts where today there is little or no water supply, or where that water there may be in the streams are so salty that it kills the crops instead of invigorating them. These things are many others which almost every traveller, in semi-arid or desert countries, has seen for himself, seem to be almost

Starting point is 09:45:49 refutable evidence that at some time the climate was moistered than now. Such evidence long ago gave rise to two hypotheses, which are now almost abandoned, those of deforestation and of progressive desiccation. According to supporters of the first hypothesis, the reckless cutting of forests has not only allowed the rains to denude the mountain sides of soil, but has also caused an actual diminution in rainfall. This view once had a considerable popular vogue, but for various reasons it has now practically ceased to be considered among scientists.

Starting point is 09:46:26 In the first place, modern measurements of rainfall before and after the deforestation of large tracts are contradictory. At best they show only slight differences, too small to have any appreciable effect, and in practically every case so doubtful that they may be due merely to the accident of an especially dry or rainy period of a few years coming not long before or after the forest was cut. Moreover, many of the strongest evidences of desiccation are found in places such as southeastern Syria, where there is no reason to think that the country has ever been forested since it was first occupied by civilized man.

Starting point is 09:47:03 Finally, there are thousands of square miles in Chinese Turkestan, where the forest themselves have died because of lack of water, and are still standing as gaunt skeletons preserved for a thousand years or more because of the extreme dryness of the air. The hypothesis of progressive desiccation assumes that during historic times the earth has steadily been growing drier. It was my own view when I published explorations in Turkestan in 1905. Many careful students still uphold it. The majority of its supporters, however, apparently think that it needs modification along lines which will shortly appear. Well, evidence of more water in the past than at present is,

Starting point is 09:47:43 prominent in many places. There is also much of the contrary nature, less noticeable, but no less convincing. For example, ruins are located on the floor of lakes, which must have been partially dry when the structures were erected. Elsewhere one finds irrigation canals in places now so damp that their construction would seem to be a waste of energy. In North Africa and Syria, huge irrigation works are located in regions of another kind, which not only are dry now, but must have been dry in the past. Otherwise, the Romans would not have expanded such enormous labour to get water. These things and others furnish almost irrefutable evidence that at certain periods the water supply of many semi-arid regions was no greater than at present.

Starting point is 09:48:32 Because such evidence is less abundant and noticeable than the other kind, the believers in progressive desiccation have overlooked it. On the other hand, other students have been so impressed by it that they have held that there have been no changes of climate during historic times, and that the fluctuations which follow the last glacial epoch came to an end before the beginning of history. There seems only one way to reconcile these two opposing views, each of which is based on unassailable evidence. That way, as I first showed in The Pulse of Asia, 1907, is a group of the evidence according to its date, and see how far the indications of moisture and aridity come at different times. For example, several lines of evidence, such as the location of dwellings in tracks that are now great swamps in Ireland, unusually prolonged famines in China and Western Asia,

Starting point is 09:49:27 and vegetation of warm-thloathing types in Europe suggest a dry period perhaps 1,400 to 1,200-200-200 years. before Christ. At the time of Herodotus, between 400 and 500 BC, all the evidence points to moist conditions of Western Asia and Northern Africa. About 200 BC, a somewhat dry climate apparently prevailed, although not so dry as now. Then at the time of Christ, conditions were once more favourable. After about six centuries of gradually increasing aridity, a dry period more severe than that of 1200 BC reached its climax about 650 AD. An improvement followed, which culminated about 100 AD, and then came another bad time, reaching its worst in the 13th century. It was followed by a rapid recovery which had not last long enough to be of great value.

Starting point is 09:50:19 Since the 14th century, minor fluctuations have continued to take place. The whole matter is summed up in the dotted line of figure 46. There the high parts of the curve represent moist conditions and a low dry. The curve is only approximate and does not represent all the data now available, but it seems wise to reproduce it in the original form from which it had when the pulsatory hypothesis of climatic changes was first formulated. From what has been said, it appears that during historic times, climatic pulsations have taken place.

Starting point is 09:50:55 They seem to be of essentially the same nature as glacial epochs and postglacial stages, the difference being only in degree. Apparently, the conditions of the geological past merged without break into those of the present. This, in fact, is really appreciated by historians and archaeologists who naturally have little occasion to come in contact with it. Students of glaciation, however, have carried the matter so far that we now have abundant evidence of a great succession of climatic variations

Starting point is 09:51:22 covering the entire period from the present time back to the date when ice covered much of the northern United States in Europe. They find no evidence of any sudden break between the past and the present. On the contrary, by means of varves, or layers of clay deposited each year in lakes that disappeared after the retreat of the ice. Degier and Antevs, for example, find a constant series of pulsations. In studying the retreat of the ice in North America, F. B. Taylor and others have discovered a series of some 50 small moraines indicating status of retreat. These point to climatic cycles, having an average duration of somewhere around 500 years, although varying considerably. Most students of post-classial climates believe that such cycles, on a diminishing scale, have continued into the historic period.

Starting point is 09:52:16 In order to test the pulsatory hypothesis, some means of actually measuring the climate of the past seems necessary. In the southwestern United States, there appear to have been changes like those in Western Asia. In that region, Professor A.E. Douglas has found that the thickness of the annual rings of trees furnishes a reliable indication of variations in the water supply from year to year. In California, among the big trees, I found that correlation coefficients for a period of about 50 years show clearly that the rainfall is a main determinant of the rate at which the trees form their rings of growth. Other factors, of course, enter into the matter. as Anteves has pointed out in a forthcoming publication of the Kansi Institution of Washington, but these likewise are climatic.

Starting point is 09:53:06 Corrections must be made to eliminate the effects of age, but this can be done by mathematical methods of considerable accuracy. It is difficult to determine whether the climate at the beginning, and end of a tree's life was the same, but it's easy to determine whether there have been pulsations while the tree was making its growth. If the trees from various parts of a given district form thick rings for a century, then thin ones for another hundred years, and again thick ones, we may be almost sure that they have lived through a long period of unfavorable climate. During the years 1911 and 1912, I had the auspices of the Carnegie Institution of Washington. I measured the thickness of the rings of growth on the stump of about 450 sequoes, which have been cut for fence posts, shingles and pencil wood in California.

Starting point is 09:53:54 The trees varied from 250 to nearly 3,250 years of age. The great majority were over 1,000 years old, 79 over 2,000 and 3 over 3,000. Even where only a few trees are available, the record indicates the main fluctuations, although not the details. FICA 47 is displayed on the page, changes have climbed to California for 2,000 years, adjusted to level of Owens Lake. Dotter lines indicate main respects in which Anteves' method of, correction gives a different result from that of the author.

Starting point is 09:54:29 Where the number approximates 100, accidental variations are largely eliminated. Accordingly in California we have a climatic record which is fairly accurate for 2,000 years and approximate for 1,000 years more. This is expressed graphically in the solid line of figure 46. In order to bring out the details, the more reliable portion from 100 BC to the present time have been reproduced in in figure 47. This resembles the corresponding part of figure 46, except that the vertical scale is three times as great, and corrections that have been made on the basis of Owens Lake. In general, the tree curve resembles that of changes of climate in Asia, although there

Starting point is 09:55:10 are differences in detail. Beginning with 1000 BC, both Kurds have the maximum. They dip down about 800 BC and rise high not far from 700. About 400 BC they disagree, but this is probably due largely to the absence of reliable data for the Asiatic curve. In the second century before Christ, both are low, but not so low as they're present. At the time of Christ they rise high and continue to fluctuate together till 300 AD. At that time they show a difference which may have arisen, because I was unduly impressed by the abandonment of many ruins in Chinese Turkestan at the end of the 3rd century. The dash line is probably more accurate than the dotted and should be used.

Starting point is 09:55:58 In the 7th century both curves reach their lowest point, then from 650 AD onward their general course is closely similar, especially about 1000 AD. In the tree curve, the evidence of pulsations is even clearer than in the Asiatic curve. The general agreement between the two curves seems to indicate that the main climatic variations of Western Asia and the region of similar climate in the United States. are approximately the same. Moreover, the fluctuations of both tree growth and rainfall among the Sayeros during the last half century show a strong resemblance to those of rainfall in Palestine as is set forth in climatic changes

Starting point is 09:56:38 and in post-glacial climatic cycles, a publication on the Carnegie Institution of Washington. Since the present growth of trees in California shows so close in agreement with the rainfall in Western Asia, it is almost certain that a similar agreement existed in the past. The growth of the trees, with its pronounced variations lasting hundreds of years, is generally accepted as the strongest single piece of evidence that pronounced climatic pulsations have taken place in historic times. The agreement between the curve obtained from exact measurements in California and that obtained from physiographic and archaeological evidence in Western Asia

Starting point is 09:57:15 unites with present climatic variations in proving that these two regions of similar climatic type have experienced a similar series of climatic pulsations. Another line of evidence in the Western United States is peculiarly important because it employs a method absolutely different from those already mentioned, but reaches the same conclusion. Every river holds in solution a certain amount of sodium, chlorine, calcium, carbon dioxide, and various other materials. Under ordinary circumstances, this cannot be detected except by chemical analysis. If the river flows into a lake, which has no outlet, however, the water is evaporated,

Starting point is 09:57:56 but the dissolved constituents remain, and gradually increase until the brine is formed. Certain materials, such as a calcite, which forms tufa and other kinds of limestone, are removed by algae or bacteria, and certain others, such as potassium, seem to be absorbed by the clays and the lake bottoms. Sodium and especially chlorine, however, do not appear to be removed until the brine becomes completely, saturated so that crystals of common salt are formed. Hence if we know the amount of sodium and chlorine brought in by the rivers each year and the amount dissolved in the unsaturated lake, we can easily calculate the time that has elapsed either

Starting point is 09:58:38 since the lake was first formed or since the last overflowed. A body of water that overflows as everyone knows soon becomes essentially as fresh as the rivers that supplied. On the eastern side of the the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Owens Lake, a body of salt water in southern California, is peculiarly well adapted to our present purpose. Owens Lake receives most of its water from the river of the same name. Both have been measured and analyzed with unusual thornness because part of the river is carried to Los Angeles in a remarkable aqueduct nearly 250 miles long. H.S. Gale of the United States Geological Survey has carefully gathered all the available data.

Starting point is 09:59:21 It concludes that, according to the figures of the aqueduct engineers, the accumulation of the chlorine of Owens Lake would require 4,200 years, and the sodium 3,500, the average bane 3,850. A series of fresh strands and an old outlet channel show clearly that the lake overflowed not long ago. Hence, Gell concludes that 4,000 years or considerably less, is a length of time since the lake has been. Lake stood at the outlet level, 180 or 190 feet higher than at present. These figures, however, require modification. The reason why Gal gives the period as 4,000 years or considerably less, is that the figures of the engineers emit the lower third of the drainage area of Owen's Lake, and this is the part where the waters flow most slowly, and where the clays and other deposits

Starting point is 10:00:15 which surround them are most saline. Hence, more salt proportionally should be accumulated here. than higher up. Moreover, as he carefully points out, no allowance is made for the well-assertained fact that when the rivers are more abundantly supplied with water, as must have been the case when the lake was full, the amount of dissolved salt is also greater,

Starting point is 10:00:37 although not in direct ratio to the water supply. When due allowance is made for these conditions and for others of minor importance, the time since the last overflow is reduced to 2,500 or 2,000 years. In other words, at the time of Herodotus, and perhaps the beginning of the Christian era, the climate of the Owens Lake region was so moist that the lake expanded to two and one half times its present size and sent a stream down the outlet channel. Owens Lake does more than indicate a change of climate within two or three thousand years.

Starting point is 10:01:13 It also shows that the change has been highly irregular. This is proved by a large number of strands lying below the level of the outlets, and by the way in which these ferri in character, and in the extent to which they have been covered by fresh detritus washed down from the mountains. At Owens Lake there are four series of strands. These apparently correspond to the four chief periods when the climate has grown moist as shown by the growth of the big trees in figure 47. Fortunately, Owens Lake lies only 50 miles east of the region where the trees were measured. The general climatic fluctuations of both districts are the same. The outermost strand, the huge gravel beach at the level of the outlet, was presumably last reached by the water about the time of Christ, or possibly in the days of Herodotus, for both

Starting point is 10:02:03 the chemical evidence and the trees point to this conclusion. That series of similar but much smaller beaches and lower levels record the approach of a dry period during which a lake fell to a low level, whose exact position cannot be determined. Judging by the trees, this must have cumulated about 650 AD. During this period, gravels were washed in by mountain streams and formed what are known as fans, or low flattened cones, which may be several miles long. These cover the old strands in many places and extended far below their level to the diminished lake. Next the waters rose again, but not halfway to their former level. They formed two small strands, not gravelly like their predecessors, but faint and sandy as if the winds were weak. They must date from about 1000 AD when the trees indicate a wet period,

Starting point is 10:02:57 for they are younger than the gravel fans of the preceding dry time. The next phase of the lake was a dry period, which is most extreme about 1250 AD. More gravels were then deposited, and the fact that they covered the preceding strands and extend to a much lower level shows that the lake then stood low, as would be expected from the trees. The next high period of the lake, about 1350 AD, according to the trees, is unusually interesting. The water did not reach so high levels formally, perhaps because the rainy period was short. but I formed a large beach of gravel quite different from the preceding beaches. This seems to indicate great storminess,

Starting point is 10:03:42 a condition which is also suggested by the fact that the growth of the trees at this time increased more rapidly than at any other period for nearly 3,000 years. In Europe during the same century, unprecedented storms caused great floods in France, while the severity of the waves were so intense as to break through beaches and sand dunes and convert large marshal areas into portions of the sea along the coast of Holland and Lincolnshire. During the winters, the rivers froze to an unheard-of degree, and three or four times men and animals passed from Germany to Sweden on the solid ice of the Baltic Sea, an occurrence unknown in our day.

Starting point is 10:04:21 In England, the summers were so rainy that the average yield of grain diminished disastrously. In self-defense, many landowners gave up grain raising, and turned their attention to sheep and cattle. Distrous and discontent were the inevitable result among the peasants. Far away in Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Lake of Lopnor both rows with great rapidity between 1,300 and 1350 AD. Thus from California to China, evidence of various kinds that unite to indicate that during the 14th century there occurred a short period of unusual storminess.

Starting point is 10:04:57 Such conditions have intensified and prolonged would probably cause the accumulation of enormous glaciers. To return to Owens Lake, the lowest series of strands is sandy and small compared with the large gravel bar of 1350. It was evidently formed under different conditions. Presumably, the lake fell to low level about 1,500 AD, and rose during the next century or more to form the highest strand of the later series. The evidence of Owens Lake is much strengthened by that of its neighbours. At Mono Lake farther north in California, the more recent strands are almost identical with those at Owens. Since 1900, Mono Lake appears to have risen higher than at any time, since at least 1775, as we judge from the rings of growth of a tree killed by the rising salt water.

Starting point is 10:05:47 Thus in all sides there is as strongest evidence not only that the climate of the past differed from that of the present, but that many minor pulsations have occurred and have grown less intense during the historic period. Up to about 1912, I suppose, as did practically all students of the subject that the same kind of climatic changes have taken place in all parts of the world. At that time, Panic, a leading student of the glacial period came to the conclusion that this is by no means a case. He showed that the northern side of arid or desert areas we find, densely settling lakes like Great Salt Lake in Utah surrounded by old strands.

Starting point is 10:06:29 These indicate that the lakes have long been contracting, so that they have abandoned first one strand then another, but at the same time their waters become more and more highly concentrated. On the equatorial side of the desert belt, on the contrary, we have such lakes as Chad in Africa, a shallow sheet of water, only slightly salty and not surrounded by any great series of strands. It has the appearance of being a new lake formed by a recent increase in rainfall. Pank points out a similar contrast between the sand dunes on the poleward and equatorial sides of the desert belt in both hemispheres.

Starting point is 10:07:07 On the poleward side, the dunes consist of loose, moving, sand, appropriate to places that are grown drier. By the other side, there are plenty of dunes, but they are covered with sparse vegetation which is efficient to keep them from moving and to prevent the formation of new dunes. formation of new dunes. Since their formation, the rainfall has evidently increased from the dunes and lakes, as well as from other evidence, such as the snowline. Penk concludes that changes of climate consist of an alternate shifting of the climatic zones. During our glacial period, he holds that the Northern Storm Belt is shifting southward so that the storminess of Germany and that Northern United States is pushed into Italy or the Southern United States. In the same

Starting point is 10:07:54 the desert belt is displaced toward the equator. Thus the polar side of the desert has more storminess and moisture than formerly, while on the equatorial side, the desert is shoved into an area where equatorial rains formerly supported abundant vegetation. During a time such as a present, on the contrary, the desert expands on its northern border, its legs diminish, leaving strands behind them and becoming very saline, vegetation dies and the wind is free to pile up sand dunes. On the other or equatorial side of the desert, the amount of rain is greater than before. Hence basins which formerly contained no water and are filled with shallow lakes such as Chad,

Starting point is 10:08:35 which have not yet had time to become highly saline. Vegetation also spreads into the desert and sand dunes become covered with it and cease to be moved by the wind. Few people have studied glacial problems more carefully than pink. One result to the minuteness and care of his studies is that he is one of the foremost advocates of great climatic complexity. He distinguishes several post-glacial stages, and in addition brings his conclusion so far toward our own time that he states that a peculiar dry period prevailed in Central Asia, as late as the early part of our era. While Pank was formulating his hypothesis of a shifting of climatic zones as an explanation of the glacial period, I was working out the same hypothesis in respect to historic times.

Starting point is 10:09:25 Our work was wholly independent, being based on different lines of evidence, and so far as I am aware, neither knew what the other was doing. The shifting of climatic zones is by no means a new idea, for it has been fagely suggested many times. The new thing is to find direct evidence of it, such as Pink presents in his discretion of lakes and dunes. As to historic times, the ruins of Guatemala and Yucatan finish perhaps the best available test, for those regions are the most notable example of a civilization which developed within the Torrid zone.

Starting point is 10:10:00 The ruins of that civilization are the most remarkable archaeological remains in the Western Hemisphere. Part lie near the central coast of Yucatan in a relatively dry region inhabited today by a fairly prosperous agricultural population. Many of the finest ruins, however, and most of the more ancient ones, lie back from the coast of the wilderness of dense forest and jungle. Their agriculture is almost impossible. The difficulty of clearing the rank, vegetation, and getting it dry enough to burn before a new crop of lusty bushes grows up is enormous. Feveras too prevail most of the year. They include the worst types of tropical malaria, as well as many other kinds. foreigners are quickly attacked and it would be dangerous for a white man to attempt to live there permanently,

Starting point is 10:10:48 even with all the appliances of modern medical science. The natives also suffered terribly. Many of the children are apparently killed by malaria and other tropical diseases in infancy. Those who grow up carry the effects with them through life. 75% of the tropical workers at the Panama Canal are thought to have had malaria germs in their systems, even though they did not show at what signs of the disease. And the cases probably even worse among the natives of the lowland forests of Quintanark, Rue, Campeche, and Petan, where most of the early Maya ruins are located.

Starting point is 10:11:27 One is only to look at their swollen porches to see that something is the manner, and a dull, apathetic manner, both in work and play, is another sign of some deep-sitted physical ailment. Here, where today the Indians are so diseased, and agriculture is so difficult, there had dwelt an ancient race characterized by the qualities which have been defined as most essential to a high civilization. The mayors of Yucatan and Guatemala, alone among the Aborigines of America, carried to high perfection the arts of sculpture and architecture. The Inks of Peru, to be sure, made striking buildings,

Starting point is 10:12:05 but they had no idea how to adorn their simple structures with columns, rosettes, arches, gargoyles, pediments and many other agricultural devices which were universal among the mayors. These clever people were also at depths in astronomy, for they framed the most exact calendar ever known except our own. Theirs was better than that which Eastern Europe used up to the time of the Great War. Most remarkable of all, the mayors developed the art of writing and carried it to a pitch higher than that reached by the Chinese, for they apparently began to use signs to denote sounds instead of having a sign for each individual word. Their temples are great structures which sometimes rise three stories in height and have a length of three or four hundred

Starting point is 10:12:50 feet. A single city often contained a score of noble buildings and extended over not blessed with progressive neighbors to spur them on and teach them new ways. They had no beasts of burden. They could not plough the fields nor transport loads except by their own labor. Every one of the great stones which form their temples and palaces must have been brought by human effort, a task which none but a most energetic race would undertake. Another disadvantage was the absence of metal tools. The mayors perhaps had a little copper, but not a trace has been found of any metal tool that would be of service in carving their intricate facades and delicately wrought statues. Flint or obsidian was all that they had, and yet with such poor tools they

Starting point is 10:13:37 create a works of art which command sincere admiration. To do all this with such small opportunities was surely one of the greatest feats ever achieved by any race. The most surprising thing about the mayors is that they develop their high civilization in what are now the hot, damp, malarial lowlands where agriculture is practically impossible. A hundred miles away on the coasts of Yucatan, or in the Guatemalan highlands, far more favorable conditions. now prevail. Their agriculture is comparatively easy. The climate, while not bracing, is at least good for the torrid zone, and malarial fevers are rare. Today the main cities lie in these more favorable regions. The energetic part of the population is there, and the interior lowlands

Starting point is 10:14:25 are hated and shunned by all except a degraded handful. In the past, the more favorable localities were occupied by people close akin to the mayors, yet civilization never rose to any creation. height. Rewans are found there, but they are far behind those of the lowlands as the cities of Yucatan are today behind those of the United States. The explanation of these peculiar conditions several possibilities suggest themselves. First we may suppose that the mayors were the most remarkable people who ever lived. They were able to carry on agriculture under conditions with which no modern people, not even those of European race, have ever succeeded in creeping.

Starting point is 10:15:07 They chose the worst part they could find, almost the worst in any part of America, even though far better places they close at hand and were occupied by an allied people, relatively fewer numbers and backward in civilization. They were able to preserve their energy for a thousand years or more under the most debilitating climatic conditions, and lastly they are immune to the many fevers which today weaken the dwellers in their old habitat. It is possible that a process of natural selection had given these people an extraordinary degree of genius, energy and ability to combat disease. Indeed, it seems to me that this must have been the case.

Starting point is 10:15:50 Nevertheless, I doubt whether it fully explains why the mayors settled and thrived in what would now generally be accounted the worst parts of their general region. A second possibility is that in the time of the mayors, tropical diseases were less harmful than it. present. We have no shred of evidence one way or the other. Such a thing as possible, but in view of the fact that there are several kinds of malaria, not to mention other diseases, any one of which greatly weakens a race, there is little chance that Mayos were free from disease unless something else was also different. Even if diseases were not so prevalent as now, this has not explained the other apparent anomalies of the Mayo's situation. It may be, however, that a fairly satisfactory explanation will be found if the two preceding possibilities are joined

Starting point is 10:16:38 with a third, namely a climatic change, such as the dry conditions which prevail a little farther north, prevailed in the Maya region when these people attained eminence. Such as shifting zones would increase the length of the dry season which now comes in February in March. This would diminish the amount of vegetation and cause scrub to take the place of dense forest. Under such conditions, agriculture will become comparatively easy. Favors would also greatly diminish, for in the drier parts of Yucatan, they are today relatively mild, and that lowland plan would be the natural side of the chief development of civilization, just as is the case in other countries. When the dates of Mayo history are compared in the curve of tree

Starting point is 10:17:24 growth in California, they seem to agree with the hypothesis of a shifting of climatic zones. The early chronology is so doubtful that we may pass it by. The 7th century, however, is known to have been a time when Maya civilization sank to a very low ebb, for scarcely a building dates from that time, and the traditions become most vague. The great fact of this period is that, for some reason, the Mayors completely abandoned their old homes in what is now the forested south of Mayerland. They migrated north to the drier, less forested and more healthful regions of northern Yucatan. This would be what we should expect, for when the California trees grew slowly, as in the

Starting point is 10:18:10 seventh century, the desert zone that almost girdles the globe would lie far to the north. At the same time the equatorial zone of rains would expand northward over Guatemala and Yucatan. The rainfall would be abundant and the dry season short. The forests would become rank, agriculture would be difficult, disease would be rife, and the vitality of the mayors would be sapped. From about 900 AD to 1,100 AD, on the other hand, the California trees grew rapidly. At such a time the desert belt would be pushed south, and favorable conditions would prevail in the home of the mayors. At that time occurred, the last great revival of architecture and the construction of the great buildings whose ruins now adorniocathe.

Starting point is 10:18:56 Whatever the cause, there is no doubt that there was a marked-out burst of energy. The latter history of the mayors has no great abundance of architectural monuments to serve as landmarks, and its cannot be correlated with the fluctuations of the California curve. Yet so far as indications enable us to judge, the two sets of phenomena are in harmony. In addition to the mayor ruins, the conditions of Palestine and the growth of the California trees furnished independent evidence that the zone of cyclonic storms has at certain periods suffered a shift equatorward. In Palestine, the rainy zone apparently once extended at least 50 miles south of its present limit, in spite of the fact that the mountains there die out and thus render the conditions doubtly unfavorable to rainfall.

Starting point is 10:19:47 Today, Hebron is a last large town and Beersheba, the last village. In the old days, Oger, far to the south, was comparable to Hebron, and other ruins indicate that settlements were located still farther southward. In California, trees indicate a shifting of zones because they grow most rapidly during years when storms continue late into the spring. At such times, the winter zone of storms is pushed equatorward and continues to give moisture late in the spring. Further consideration of changes of climate is not here possible, for that the reader must turn to climatic changes in Earth and Sun. Here are main interest centres in the results of such changes and in the degree of satanity with which we can make use of them in the interpretation of history.

Starting point is 10:20:40 For our present purpose, the essential point is that a series of climatic pulsations has apparently continued from a maximum phase in the last glacial epoch down to a minimum phase today. nowhere do we find any marked break between the past and the present. On the whole, the early millenniums of the historic period appear to have been drier than a present in such regions as Syria and California, but this general condition of more abundant rain appears to be broken by frequent dry periods, which may have lasted hundreds of years.

Starting point is 10:21:12 Some of these, as in the 7th century of the Christian era, may have been even drier than the present. Moreover, the effect of any given third, phase of a climatic pulsation is not the same in all parts of the world. On the contrary, the effects differ from zone to zone, from the coast of a continent to the interior, and from the east side to the west. Accepting matitude, the climatic cycles of the past appear to have been like the small cycles of the present. California, for example, tends to be rainy when Florida is dry. It must be clearly understood that the chief characteristic of the climatic

Starting point is 10:21:52 pulsations of the estuatic period has not been changes of temperature. Failure to understand this point has led to many mistakes. The chief variations have apparently occurred in the number, intensity and paths of the kind of cyclonic storms which bring ordinary changes of weather in the progressive regions of the United States and Europe. Such storms are by far the most variable climatic factor, the extent to which the mean annual temperature or relative humidity of a region may vary from one year to another is very limited, but the rainfall and still more the number of storm tracks whose centres pass nearly given place may vary greatly. Some years, storm after storm sweeps across the country and intervals of only a few days,

Starting point is 10:22:39 while in others a real storm occurs scarcely more than once a month. Even at a place like New York City, where the climate is very regular, the number of storm tracks whose centres pass within 200 miles, of the city in the short period from 1900 to 1915, buried from 21 in 1903 to 48 in 1915. While from July to December the variation was from 7 to 24. It regions having the type of climate now found in the eastern Mediterranean region and in California. Such variations are far greater.

Starting point is 10:23:16 At San Francisco, for example, the number of storm centers passing within 2,000 the city during this same period varied from one in 1900, 1904 and 1914, or none in the 12 months from December 1913 to November 1914 to 13 in 1903. In the past, according to our hypothesis, the number of storm tracks for a century after century approached this higher figure, while at other periods it fell toward the lower figures. In other latitudes and in parts of the continent where other types of climate prevailed An opposite type of change took place While in intermediate regions No distinct alteration was evident

Starting point is 10:24:01 End of Section 14 Section 15 of Climate and Civilisation By Osworth Huntington This is a Librevox according All Librevox according to the public domain For more information of a volunteer Please visit Librevox.org

Starting point is 10:24:24 Record by Leon Harvey Chapter 15 The Pulsatory Hypothesis and as Critics Changes of Climate are so vital element in the main conclusions of this book that I shall devote a chapter to criticisms of climatic hypotheses. I shall begin by summarizing once more the changes in my own opinions for these changes have had much to do with the nature of the criticisms. 1.

Starting point is 10:24:55 When I first became convinced that climatic changes had taken place in historic times in Western Asia, I accepted without question and opinion, then somewhat widely held that the earth as a whole was growing dry and warmer. Two, further study, as already explained, soon led me to abandon this idea of progressive desiccation in favour of the hypothesis, pulsations whereby the climate first became warmer and drier, and then moisture and cooler. The next step was the conclusion that variations in temperature are of negligible importance. and that the main change has been in the amount of rainfall.

Starting point is 10:25:36 4. Investigations in regions other than desert's advanced hypothesis, another step, by leading to the conclusion that changes of opposite types have taken place in different latitudes, and even opposite sides of a continent of the same latitude. 5. The last step was the conviction that the evidence points clearly to changes in the location, number and intensity of cyclonic storms as the main factor in climatic pulsations. Bearing in mind then, that the hypothesis of climatic pulsations has presented in this book has become quite different from what it was when first published in 1905, let us consider some of the main criticisms.

Starting point is 10:26:16 1. Many authors have endeavored to disprove all theories of climatic change during historic times by suggesting that the supposed evidence of moisture in the past are purely accidental. In one place, so they say, a river may have changed its course, in another an earthquake may have diverted an underground water supply. Famous marches like that of Alexander with these elephants in Persia may have been possible not because the climate was morester than that of today, but because the march occurred in an unusually wet year. In the same way, the thousands of seemingly waterless ruins in the southwestern United States may have depended upon hidden springs, one or two of which have been found. Such arguments are of value merely as guides in determining the kind of investigations that shall be made in the field.

Starting point is 10:27:06 They break down what is realized that although many conscientious investigators have led them in mind, the evidence that would give them weight is not forthcoming. It must be remembered that the evidence on which the obolices of climatic pulsations has founded is of many types. It is widely spread in at least four continents, and depends upon literally thousands of ruined towns, waterless roads, abandoned irrigation systems, old un-irrigated fields, now too dry for cultivation, old records of lake levels and the like. It is statistically impossible that so many accents should all point in the same direction.

Starting point is 10:27:43 Accents by their very nature tend sometimes in one direction and sometimes in another. The evidence of climatic changes, however, is not only widespread, but extremely systematic. at certain periods and in certain types of climate it all so far as i can see tends to indicate aridity in other types of climate and at other period it seems to point with equal unanimity in the other direction if the evidence were merely the results of accidents such as separation on the basis of both time and place would be impossible two a number of persons have criticised a pulsatory hypothesis under a misapprehension or have directed their criticisms at earlier statements of the hypothesis without knowing of letter modifications. A good instance of this is Weikov's book on Turkestan. Apparently that Russian author had not read or had failed to understand the Pulse of Asia, but had become thoroughly familiar with a book written by his countryman,

Starting point is 10:28:46 Berg for the express purpose of combating what he believed to be the false conclusions in the Pulse of Asia. At any rate, Weikov pronounced the conclusion. or the book in name, and then proceeded to prove the very thing that led to the choice of its title, namely that during historical times the Caspian Sea and other lakes in Central Asia indicate alternating periods of more and of less rainfall than present. Herbert, a French critic, also aims his main arguments at progressive climatic changes, but agrees that the Caspian Sea affords unstable evidence of climatic pulsations. In general, the critics have tended to attack not only the idea of progressive climatic change,

Starting point is 10:29:26 in one direction during historic times, by the dear of climatic uniformity. The alternative to which almost all authorities turn is climatic pulsations having a greater intensity in the past than at present. Over nine tenths of the geographers of America, if we may judge from the 50 whose opinions have been expressed in writing, hold this view, although they differ as to the degree to which climatic pulsations have influenced history. 3. A certain type of critic has asserted again and again. than in the southwestern United States, and to a less degree in other places.

Starting point is 10:30:01 The population in regions that are now too dry to support many people was never so dense as the ruins seemed to indicate. What really happened, they say, is that the same people built village after village in house after house. Superstitious fears of death or disease or tendency to wanderer may have caused a house to be inhabited for a few decades and then abandoned. The old house never was reoccupied, but a new one was built by its side. Thus, ruins which appear to be large enough for a thousand people, may never have been occupied by more than 50 or 100 at any one time. Wherever the history of a region is well known, this explanation is wholly out of the question,

Starting point is 10:30:45 as in Syria, the Libyan desert, Persia, and many other parts of the old world. It has flourished in America simply because the history of pre-Columbian America is unwritten, and archaeologists have been free to exercise their imaginations. Douglas, however, who perfected the methods of measuring climate by means of tree growth, has most effectively proved, than at least one case, a relatively large set of ruins was all built at practically the same time. By comparing the rings of different trees, he is able to tell just which ring in one tree is synchronous with a given ring in another. This is possible because the rings vary greatly from year to year,

Starting point is 10:31:27 and the same succession of rings of various thickness is practically never repeated. By this method, Douglas finds that in one of the large ruins at Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, the houses were all constructed within about a decade. Thus the whole village must have been occupied at one time, and there was no successive addition of new rooms to replace those no longer occupied. Of course, this is only one instance, but a single concrete, well-established fact like this, is worth more than any amount of supposition.

Starting point is 10:32:00 4. In many quarries, there has been an assumption that climatic uniformity is a normal condition. Meteorologists do indeed find that so far as records are yet available, which means for scarcely a century, there are no certain indications of progressive climatic changes, but there is overwhelming evidence of pulsations which increase in magnitude and duration as the records have become longer. In the same way, the geological record continually discloses new evidence of climatic pulsations. Where one glacial period consisting of a single epoch was generally recognized half a century ago, at least six are now recognized. These date from all parts of geological time and some have several epochs and sub-ep-box.

Starting point is 10:32:48 Moreover, the studies of Barel, Degir, sailors, and many others are rapidly showing that. During practically the whole of the Earth's known history, smaller climatic variations have occurred. Thus, pulsations of climate are now almost universally regarded as characteristic of the vast periods covered by geology, as well as of the short period covered by exact climatic records. The presumption is that similar pulsations of intermittent magnitude were characteristic of the intervening historical period. One of the most interesting facts in this connection is a change of our attitude among meteorologists. For example, Ward of Harvard, who was for many years the only professor of climatology in an American university, has long been one of the strongest

Starting point is 10:33:37 champions of climatic uniformity. In his latter works, however, and especially in his forthcoming climate of the United States, his attitude toward the hypothesis of pulsatory climate changes has altered from pronounced opposition to benevolent neutrality. His position is that of the kind of physiographic and archaeological evidence which must be used in solving the problem of climatic changes during the period prior to exact records is utterly different from the statistical data to which climatologists and meteorologists are accustomed. Therefore, specialists of those types cannot properly evaluated, but must wait for the final decision of specialists in this particular line. As a matter of fact, the great majority of specialists in post-glacial climatology now accept

Starting point is 10:34:24 the idea that climatic pulsations have continued into historic times. 6. The contrast in the types of evidence which are conclusive to workers in diverse lines of research is illustrated not only by the fact that meteorologists are slow to accept the evidence of historic changes of climate, while geologists are quite ready to accept it. But by the fact that historians seem to think that if changes of climate have occurred, there ought to be written records to this effect. This may be illustrated by two eminent geographers who follow the historical method. Bruins and Semple both reject the idea that climatic changes have had an important effect upon history, but neither gives reasons for such rejection.

Starting point is 10:35:11 Ms. Semple, for example, in an admirable paper on the Mediterranean lumber trade, merely states that, having studied the evidence, she does not think it convincing. Her work, with its remarkably complete references, if when minor matters are discussed, shows that to her the real evidence on this point is a written word. With her unusual fairness, however, she points out that the accounts of widespread forests in ancient Cyprus suggest a different climate. She also gives many other facts which seem much more consistent with climatic changes than with uniformity.

Starting point is 10:35:47 At least they seem so to persons with their geological training. Such persons have become more and more accustomed, not only to the idea of repeating climatic fluctuations of all grades throughout geological times, but to the idea that such fluctuations have caused the destruction of many types of plants and animals, and have hastened the development and migration of new types. The historian on the contrary is accustomed to attribute almost everything to purely human action. Hence in the absence of records to the contrary, he assumes that human causes are mainly

Starting point is 10:36:20 responsible for such facts as deforestation, changes in trade routes, and apparent drying up of sources of water, the abandonment of settlements in the drier parts of the world, and the migrations which so largely originate in dry regions. 7. Closely connected with the preceding attitude of mind is a reason for the rejection of the hypothesis of climatic changes which have been advanced by some historians. They say that such changes are not needed in order to explain the historic facts, but this has nothing to do with the matter. The primary question is whether climatic changes have taken

Starting point is 10:36:56 place during historic times. If they have taken place, the historian must perforce take note of them and acquire into their effect, just as he inquires into the effect of barriers like the Alps or of great men like Socrates. This whole samaditude is beginning to prevail in many quarters and would dubless grow. A good example of the way in which a knowledge of climatic changes throws light on history, is set forth by A.T. Clay in an article on the so-called Fertile Crescent and Desert Bay. From a study of Babylonian tablets, Clay discovered their Semitic people known as the Amaru, or Amorites, had already risen to a position of relatively high civilization in the 4th millennium BC. Their capital was at Mare on the Euphrates River,

Starting point is 10:37:42 not far from 37 degrees north, in the very heart of what the Oriental historian Brested has described, as a desert bay. The tablets seemed to show that this capital was powerful enough to rule Babylonia, but Brested maintained that this was impossible because there was no sufficient material basis for an empire such as that of the Emirates. The arable land along the Euphrates is too limited to supply an empire, and the surrounding land is desert. Nevertheless, the grain of the University of Pennsylvania found a fragment of a dynastic list

Starting point is 10:38:17 which showed beyond question that the Emirates' emirited city of Mari on the Euphrates ruled Babylonia in the 4th millennium BC. Thus, the historic facts and the present condition of climate are completely out of harmony. When Clay investigated the matter on the spot, he found about 700 square miles of arable land within the alluvial tract, which might be watered from the Euphrates. Much of this, however, could not now be irrigated under the present conditions of floods and erosion. Even if it could all be irrigated, it is scattered in so many small bits that would form a very inadequate basis for an empire which could rule Babylonia. The region roundabout however is full of evidence that the country was by no means a desert in the past.

Starting point is 10:39:05 As Clay puts it, to include the Euphrates Valley in the so-called Desert Bay would be equivalent to including the Nile Valley in the Sahara Desert. The difference, however, behind that unlike the Sahara, has a Batamiya was not a desert in ancient times. It is not improbable, since we know that the climate has changed within the past 2,000 years, that practically the entire area

Starting point is 10:39:29 of many thousand square miles in Mesopotamia north of the Euphrates River was fertile, or at least was a great pastoral territory. The Kabur and the Baliki rivers, which flowed through this region southward to the Euphrates, were augmented by numerous streams. Some of these are present containing water,

Starting point is 10:39:48 or others are dry. Today, the Billick River at the end of the summer is almost dry at its mouth. In commenting upon the Kabur and its territories an Arab writer says, it is such as is not to be found in all the land of the Muslims, for there are more than 300 pure running fountains. Certainly the Hebrew writers and redactors of the Old Testament would not have made themselves ridiculous in the eyes of their intelligent contemporaries by placing the Garden of Eden in this region, if it were a desert bay.

Starting point is 10:40:24 And what is true of the region north of the Euphrates is true of the land lying to the west of the river. There are dry beds of rivers and streams with sand and pebble bottoms in which, at present, water is not seen for one end of the year to the other. Even many of these streams are spanned by well-constructed bridges. There are wellheads, springhouses, in which water formerly gushed from the earth. some even containing inscriptions but where noyre wells nor springs exist to-day even in the flat and once fertile plateau-toe which was thickly inhabited there are no signs of irrigation haven't been practised showing that there was once sufficient rain to make the country habitable there are reasons for believing that forests existed in certain regions where today the tree and the vine could not secure a footing for the hills are denuded of their soil the land which the greeks and the romans found so

Starting point is 10:41:20 profitable to develop is now largely a waste, and it's difficult to appreciate for what we see at present what certain ancient writers tell us about the land. For example, Cicero, who said that the country is so rich and so productive, that in the fertility of its soil, in the variety of its fruits, and the vastness of its pastoral lands, and the magnitude of all things which are matters of exploitation, is greatly superior to all other countries. Manilian Law 6 A little to the west of this Upper Mesopotamian kingdom of Amaru Ballard points out that a pronounced change of climate

Starting point is 10:41:58 is necessary in order to explain the history of Syria where an area of 20,000 square miles which is now practically desert and deserted was more thickly populated than any area of similar dimensions in England or the United States is today if one excludes the immediate vicinity of the large modern cities It has also been discovered that an enormous desert tract lying to the east of Palestine, stretching eastward and southward into the country which we know as Arabia,

Starting point is 10:42:26 was also a densely populated country. How far these settled regions extended in antiquity still unknown, but the most distant explorations of these directions have failed to reach the end of ruins and other signs of former occupation. It would be easy to cite many other insurcuit. where our knowledge of climatic changes helps greatly in understanding history. In world power and evolution, I have shown this in relation to Rome, while the character of races gives similar illustrations for China, Iceland and other regions.

Starting point is 10:43:01 But regardless of whether the historian feels the need of changes of climate to explain the historic record, no scientifically-mored historian can fail to take account of such changes if the specialists in such matters agree that they have taken place. The general attitude of such specialists, even in 1916, and still more at present, seems to be well summed up in the words of D.W. Johnson, professor of physiography in Columbia University. The climatic factor, he says in review of that book, does not solve all the problems presented by a theory of climatic pulsations. It does not pretend to do so. It does aim to show that the evidence thus far available strongly supports the belief that there have been within historic times.

Starting point is 10:43:45 climatic changes of a pulsatory nature. In this, the author has in the opinion of the reviewer, been successful. One of the latest expressions of opinion is that of anteves in post-calatial climatic cycles 1924. The view of distinct climatic fluctuations, advanced especially by Huntington, in a number of papers, is being more and more accepted. The very best evidence of the occurrence of climatic fluctuations of short as well as long duration, up to thousands of years, is probably to be found in the varying rate of growth for the big trees and then periodic retreat and all to the edge are the pleased to see nice sheets. Huntington shows that there have been during historic times within limited regions, climatic fluctuations of different length and character, but particularly in precipitation. The most noteworthy fact is that, especially in Western and Central Asia, the climate 2000 or 3,000 years ago, appears to have been distinctly moister than today. End of Section 15

Starting point is 10:44:49 Section 16 5. Civilisation and Climate by Osworth Huntington This is a Librivox according or Libravox recordings from the public domain For more information on volunteer Please visit Libravox.org Recorded by Leon Harvey

Starting point is 10:45:09 Chapter 16 The Shifting Centre is of Civilisation The final stage of our investigation is now before us We have compared the present distribution of civilisation and of climatic energy It has seen their remarkable similarity. We found that during historic times, a pulsatory shifting of climatic zones appears to have taken place.

Starting point is 10:45:33 Let us now examine the shifting of civilization and determine how far they are in harmony with those of climatic energy. The black area of the map of energy, figure 43, embraces about 1,100,000 square miles, or 2% of the total land surface of the Earth. Its population is about 260 million or 17% of the world's total. Consider what would have happened if all except this small, 2% of the lands had ceased to exist 17 or 18 centuries ago. Civilization would probably have been altered only slightly, although history would have been very different. If the rest of Europe had ceased to exist, Byzantine art, the works of the early Christian fathers, moorish architecture and Spanish explorations, conquests and colonization would be lacking. Yet this would not seriously change the conditions in which we now live.

Starting point is 10:46:27 Suppose that not only the more backward European countries, but all the rest of the world except the very high European area, had been blotted out in 200 AD. The influence of Greece and Rome would have persisted in Italy. The Roman Church, the Renaissance, and the Reformation would all have played their part. The absence of new lands for discovery in the Middle Ages would dabliss have retarded the development of certain ideas. Otherwise, the status of civilization would have been changed only a little. The United States is the only non-European country which has succeeded in touching the daily life of the world as a whole.

Starting point is 10:47:04 American inventions have gone everywhere. The denizen of Turkestan would discuss news received by Telegraph and whose wife makes his clothes with an American sewing machine is being generally touched by the new world. Yet America must not boast too loudly, for without her aid, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and their small neighbors would have made most of the world's great inventions. To an even greater degree, they would have been able to develop the arts and sciences.

Starting point is 10:47:32 The energetic area of Western and Central Europe has been the great centre of civilization for a thousand years. From it have gone forth more new ideas than from all the rest of the world combined. Its manufacturers have flooded all parts of the earth. Politically, it dominates about 60% of the Earth's surface. Socially, its domination is still greater. The United States has long been chagrin because South America has looked to Europe, not only commercially,

Starting point is 10:48:01 but for her inspiration and literature, art, education, and almost every other phase of activity. Politically, the United States helped greatly inspire in the South American republics. I was at the front in Starring, Japan, to the new level. Japan to the new life for the last half century. Yet those countries have turned their faces Europeward, because that is where ideas have been most numerous and have been most fully embodied in the contrary form of institutions, inventions or scientific principles. Wherever one turns, he fills the tentacles of the great European centre of civilization,

Starting point is 10:48:35 reaching out and vivifying the life of the whole world. To tell why this is so would require a volume. position of Western Europe, the strong racial inheritance of its people, their legacy from the civilizations of the past, their inspiring religion, their political freedom, and their many powerful institutions all play an essential part. With these, however, and as one of the conditions which make them possible, stands the fact that Western and Central Europe is the only large region which for many centuries has had these advantages, and at the same time has enjoyed a highly stimulating climate.

Starting point is 10:49:12 The main American high area differs somewhat in shape on the maps of civilization and climate, but not essentially. In general, it occupies a portion of the United States lie north of about latitude 38 degrees and east to the Rocky Mountains, together with the adjutant strip of southern Canada. Its area, taking the average of the black portions of the two maps, is approximately the same as that of the similar European region, that is, about 1,100 square miles. The population, however, is only 70 or 80 million. Here, then, we have another 2% of the Earth's land surface,

Starting point is 10:49:50 containing between 4% and 5% of the Earth's total population. Consider how disproportionately great and influence it exercises. To be sure, it falls far behind Europe, but that is partially because it is newer and less densely populated. Yet it differs from Europe only in the degree, not the kind of influence. We have already referred to some of its inventions. All the world recognises that the telephone and telegraph and many other forms of applying electrical energy are primarily American.

Starting point is 10:50:21 In architecture, we have evolved such wholly new types as the new skyscraper. In art and literature, we follow fire in the wake of Europe. Yet we have done some things which are widely known in other countries and which are steadily molding the world's opinion. The same is true in science, for the days past when Europe, Europeans can ignore the work done on the western side of the Atlantic. In the future, the disparity between Europe and America along this line bids fair to decrease rapidly, for great institutions devoted to pure science are growing on a scale unknown in other

Starting point is 10:50:53 lands. This is in part the result of another line of effort in which Americans have achieved unusual success. But this I mean what is sometimes called big business, the amalgamation of many minor industries or branches of an industry into one huge hole. It is illustrated in such organizations as our great railroads and the United States steel and standard oil companies. These represent in part the effect of unusual opportunities, but they also indicate a great expenditure of energy in planning and directing such wildly ramifying activities. Lastly, and perhaps most important of all, the United States has touched the world upon the political and social side. In spite of political sins, which are many, this country has stood for freedom and justice.

Starting point is 10:51:38 Its example has inspired other nations, including parts of Western Europe, and has given them a stronger desire for equality of opportunity and for the breaking down of unfair discrimination between man and man. In more backward places, a similar influence is felt. Good judges say that in Turkey, for example, one of the most potent causes of the Revolution of 1908 and the establishment of representative government was a teaching of American missionaries. The same is true in China, except for the most potent causes of the revolution of the American missionaries. except that there the Americans have been associated with missionaries of many other nations,

Starting point is 10:52:13 while in Turkey there have been almost none. In many other ways, the ideas of this small area radiate in all directions, and that lies the essential point. Because this 4 or 5% of the world's population are endowed with unusual energy, they are rapidly obtaining and influence wholly disproportionate to their numbers. The third important region of high civilization and energy, is Japan. Although the area is only about one-tenth that of the corresponding portion of Europe and America, the population is over 50 million. In proportion to

Starting point is 10:52:47 population its influence upon the world is less than that of the European countries and the United States which perhaps corresponds with an apparently lower degree of climatic energy. Yet we all recognize that Japan is a factor to be reckoned with. We admire its art and the skill and certainty with which the countries made use of our Western civilization. We see students locking thither from China. In India, the news of the progress of Japan causes stirring of dead leaves as by an autumn wind. As Japan has done, so India would do.

Starting point is 10:53:21 In India, however, the agitators chiefly talk and commit violence, whereas in Japan they go to work quietly without much talk or violence and make themselves so efficient that they do not need the help of Europeans. When Japan sees an opportunity, such as was afforded by the war in 1914, She takes it, and thus advances another step in a role as a most capable nation in Asia. Like Europe and America, she makes mistakes sometimes, but they are the mistakes of strength more than of weakness. Next to Japan, among our areas of high civilization, comes New Zealand, together with the adjacent corner of Australia. Here we have chiefly a reflection of British civilization.

Starting point is 10:54:01 Most of the five or six million people are grouped in an area someone more than twice the size of Japan. The question is not whether they show evidences of a high civilization, which they certainly do, but whether they have added to the endowment of ideas and institutions with which they came from England. They have clearly done so, for when we think of Australia, there come to mind such things as the Australian ballot, whereby man is enabled to vote fairly without undue influence from bystanders. We think also a progressive labour legislation, and of a pioneer attempt at old-age pensions, especially in New Zealand. We are made conscious that these people are not mere followers, but are blessed with ideas which they themselves originate and which spread out from them to other

Starting point is 10:54:45 parts of the world. A thus area which rises to the very high grade on the map of civilization is California, and the coast farther north. The population is still relatively small, and the majority grew up in other regions. Hence it is too soon to judge of the ultimate status of this area. It is so bound up with the rest of the United States and Canada that its particular contribution to civilization cannot be clearly differentiated. Yet through their universities and their readiness to attempt great things, the people of the Pacific coast impressed the world as unusually capable and energetic. Altogether, these fired regions comprise less than 120th of the lands, though they are densely populated because of the skill of their people

Starting point is 10:55:29 in agriculture and manufacture. They can turn only about one fourth of the world's population. In influence, however, they many times outweigh the remaining three-fourths. If they decide on anything, the rest of the world must submit. They never care to imitate the more backward nations, whereas such nations show a growing desire to imitate Europe, the United States or Japan. The reason seems to be that the favoured one twentieth of the land is inhabited by people of great energy, and this energy appears to be due, in part at least, the frequency of cyclonic storms with their stimulating changes of weather from day to day. This leads to the question whether similar conditions prevailed in the past.

Starting point is 10:56:14 Throughout the course of history there have been centres of civilisation like those which is six today. One of the most important was the plain of Mesopotamia. Here in the earliest days the people of Sumer and Akad, invented hieroglyphs, found of great cities, built mighty education works, drained the marshes, and laid the foundations of a complex system of law and religion. They clearly possessed the power of originating ideas and are putting them into effect in a way that is now a characteristic of the modern centers of civilization. Where they originally came from we do not know, but apparently they were not Semitic. In course of time they were overwhelmed by Semites, who presumably came in as rude invaders.

Starting point is 10:56:58 there happened one of the most characteristic events in the history of centers of civilization. The Semites dropped their old culture and adopted that of the people whom they had conquered. They began also to be inventive like their predecessors and thus developed cuneiform writing out of the hieroglyphics of the Sumerians. In latter days, other Semitic invasions took place. In each case, the invaders had done no great things in their original homes so far as we know. But when they came to Babylonia, they blossomed into people of inventive minds. full of new ideas which caused the arts to rise to higher and higher levels. The Nassimites were conquered by a non-Semitic race, the Skuthians, who were also called Meads, and they in turn were stirred to great achievements.

Starting point is 10:57:42 They were conquered by still another people, the Persians and the Cyrus, and once more the old process of stimulation was repeated. One of the most significant things in Mesopotamian history is the way in which each invading race seems suddenly to have risen to in civilization as soon as it reached a new country. How much of this was due to natural selection, whereby the weaker people among both the conquerors and the conquered, were weeded out during the migrations, wars, and pestilences,

Starting point is 10:58:13 which preceded the final settlement, how much to contact with the highest civilization, how much to more abundant opportunities afforded by the new environment, and how much to a direct physical invigoration? I shall not try to answer these questions. That some of the invading races achieve great things because they possessed innate ability seems certain. That their minds were rendered more alert by contact with the achievements of the races which they conquered is likewise beyond doubt. That the wealth and agricultural possibilities of Mesopotamia and the abundance of labour stimulated the invaders to construct palaces and temples,

Starting point is 10:58:49 build the derogation works, gather stores of treasures, car of huge monuments, spend money in supporting libraries and students, and carry on. enterprises also seem certain. These principles are so firmly established that there is no need to discuss them. The question before us is simply whether they may also have been a climatic stimulus comparable to that which now seems so important according to our maps of civilization and energy. I do not purpose to discuss the empires of antiquity. I merely wish to point out some of the features of their location and history which pertain to our main hypothesis. While Babylonia was flourishing, Egypt in the same latitude was also developing a great civilization.

Starting point is 10:59:39 The two were rivals, which was higher, it would be hard to say. They moved along parallel lines, and at last both fell during the same general period, although Egypt retained a moderate importance for some centuries out of Mesopotamia had lapsed into his significance. Far to the south, the Sabians in southwestern Arabia also developed a fairly high civilization. but they formed in no sense of great consentor. We know little about them, but apparently they were behind Mesopotamia and Egypt in the way that modern Bulgaria is behind England.

Starting point is 11:00:15 Therefore, we may pass them by for the present although they will come up again in another connection. East of Mesopotamia, the highlands of Persia, were the set of a comparatively high culture, but it scarcely rivaled that of the two great countries in the river valleys. Going on still farther toward the rising sun, we find high civilization in northern India at a very early time. That region never rose to such a pitch as did the country's farther west, and decayed somewhat earlier. Beyond India, the chain of ancient empires is broken until we come to China.

Starting point is 11:00:51 In Indo-China, to be sure, traces of a state of culture higher than that of today are found, but they belong to a comparatively late date, and it's doubtful whether they were indigenous. They are important, but do not apply to the period now under discussion. China, however, stands in the same class with Egypt and Mesopotamia. It reached a higher state of development about as long ago as they did. Here too the art of writing developed, inventions of many kinds were made, strong governments were organized, other powerful institutions were evolved, and in general there was intense mental activity.

Starting point is 11:01:27 At this point the reader is advised to consult a map of Asia and Europe. how the great countries of the past lie along an arc. They begin on the east with China, whose main center was north of the Yangtze Basin. The civilization, which flourished there, possessed qualities like those of modern Europe and America. The Chinese were an aggressive, active people, able to fight or to evolve a new religious system, as the case might be. The sword was in their hands not merely because they were ancient days, but because the people or their rulers wanted to make conquests, or because they were quick to resent infringements of their rights. They were not like their modern successors who see themselves

Starting point is 11:02:09 defrauded because they have not the power to cope with their despoilers. Follow them at westward along a band eight or ten degrees wide, with their thirtieth parallel a little south of its centre. At first we find ourselves among lofty mountains, which merge into the great Tibetan plateau. here we should not expect any great development because of the unfetteral topography. At length, however, our band descends to the plain of northern India. On the flank of the Himalayas lived Gautama, the great thinker who founded Buddhism. Out on the plains around Dili and Agra, and in surrounding regions was the home of the early Aryans, who developed the Sanskrit language, wrote the Vedas and made a real contribution to human progress.

Starting point is 11:02:54 Here, just as in China, a broad expanse of arable land was favorable to the development of a great people. Next to a baron strikes the high mountain rim of Balutistan and Afghanistan, then passes over the petu's of those countries, high and rugged in the north, lower and intensely desert in the south. In these regions the ancient civilization was higher than that of today, but not until we reached the western side of the plateau do we come upon through the advanced country of ancient Persia. As our band leaves the Persian Highland, let us change its direction and travel

Starting point is 11:03:30 so that its central line will point toward the center of the Mediterranean Sea. First it lies over Mesopotamia. There in the highly fruitful plain, we find the two great empires of Babylonia and Ossudia. They were like their modern successors in the Europe of her own day. When they were weak, they were invaded by the more backward people from the mountains on the north and east or from the desert on the south and west. When they were strong, they waxed ambitious, they strove to extend their borders, they desired to rule the world, and they were jealous of rival nations.

Starting point is 11:04:07 Thus at their strongest, like the eight European nations which were locked in a death struggle only a few years ago, they fought toothed nail for supremacy. The fighting in itself is a proof of superabundant energy. weak people may fight in self-defense or to gain new lands when sorely pinched with wanted home, but only a people who have a surplus about strength and wealth can stand the strain of great wars, whose purpose is primarily national aggrandizement. On the flanks of our band of culture, as we call it, lay the Hidites on the borders of Mesopotamia and Anatolia.

Starting point is 11:04:44 Beyond the Syrian desert, the Phoenicians, Syrians and Jews lived in the center of the band, Their degree of culture is equal to the act of the Mesopotamians, but displayed itself in different ways, partially because of the accidents of mountain chains and seas, and partially because of peculiar circumstances of their racial character or history. Next comes Egypt, still within the belt. Here's still another fertile plain gave opportunity for the accumulation of great wealth and for the leisure which is essential to a part of the population if new ideas are to be developed. They fought the same kind of wars as did their neighbours on the east. When they were most powerful, their strength and energy were such

Starting point is 11:05:25 that the mere conquest of their immediate surroundings did not satisfy them. Taking Palestine, they penetrated Syria and even advanced to the Euphrates to fight with Assyria, their great rival. And the Assyrians in turn came down through Palestine to wrest the sovereignty from Egypt. Now we pass on, curving our bad a little more, so that its centre shall pass along the main axis of the Mediterranean Sea. Roads, the Aegean Sea, Greece, Italy and Carthage fall within its limits. Here too we see the same phenomena of the rise and fall of great nations.

Starting point is 11:06:02 The rise are not begin quite so early in the west as in the east, and the fall did not come so soon. In Greece, as in Mesopotamia, a growth of strength brought with it a great struggle for supremacy, we should not end till Athens had seduved her rivals. The wars of Rome and Carthage were of this same kind in which the great nations jealous of the greatness of arrival well-nigh destroyed themselves. In this rapid sketch we have mentioned each of the chief civilizations of Asia and Europe up to the time of Christ.

Starting point is 11:06:37 While in their day centers comparable to those which we have seen to exist at present. One main centre lay in China, that corresponded to that of modern Japan. A second, less important, less enduring, was located in northern India. It has no modern representative, unless we hold that the vogue of an esoteric Hinduism among a few people in America and Europe is a sign of the existence of a widely pervasive influence derived from an Indian center. The third centre extended widely.

Starting point is 11:07:08 Its eastern limit was on the western border of Persia. It embraced Mesopotamia, Syria, Egypt and Greece. and on its flanks included surrounding countries such as Asia Minor. Ultimately, it moved westward so that Mesopotamia and then Egypt ceased to belong to it, while Italy was included. Finally it migrated still farther westward and also northward, until now Italy is on its south-eastern border, and its main area is a great European centre of our own time.

Starting point is 11:07:37 In the Western Hemisphere, only two centres of civilisation seem to have existed in ancient times. one was in Peru we should not consider it here partially because it will come up in another connection and partially because it failed to rise to a great height and never succeeded in spreading its ideas very widely

Starting point is 11:07:55 figure 48 is displayed on the following page the shifting of the storm belt the other ancient American civilization that of the mayors is much more important it falls into the same class with those of Eurasia its fertility in ideas has

Starting point is 11:08:12 already been discussed. Its influence spread to other lands and may be seen in various ruins in Mexico and in the calendars which were employed by several races in that country. It must have lasted many centuries for we find splendid buildings whose dates are at least 700 years apart and possibly more. Moreover, before the first of these was constructed, it must have been a long period of development during which the arts of architecture and sculpture were perfected. At the same period the May must have been so far advanced that they kept most accurate records of astronomical phenomena for otherwise they could not have determined the length of the year with the extraordinary accuracy displayed in their calendar in all these respects the Maya's center resembled those of Eurasia it differed from most of them in not leaving a successor so much for the ancient distribution of civilization now for that of climatic energy storms as we have seen are the most variable of the

Starting point is 11:09:12 climatic elements and also one of the most important in their effect on human energy. Figure 48 shows the approximate distribution of storminess in the northern hemisphere at the present time. It is constructed with the North Pole in the center to show the complete storm belt encircling the north temperate zone. The lands are shaded to represent three grades of storminess. Heavy lines indicate the centers of the main storm belt and its branches. The region of maximum storminess lies in southern Canada north of Lake Ontario. Thence the main belt extends eastward along the St Lawrence River to the southern edge of Newfoundland, where it is joined by a branch

Starting point is 11:09:52 coming up the Atlantic coast. Then it crosses the Atlantic with a slight inclination toward the north and before reaching island splits into three branches. One passes along the northern edge of Scotland through northern Scandinavia and thence along the Arctic coast of Europe toward Asia, where it almost dies out, and probably merges with the second or main branch. The latter splits into two parts which united Kane. One passes through Scotland and southern Scandinavia, the other goes through southern England, follows the Baltic Sea,

Starting point is 11:10:24 and then, after joining its companion, extends eastward in the latitude of Moscow, for an indefinite distance into Siberia. It apparently passes entirely across Asia, but in an attenuated form. The third branch swings from the Central Atlantic toward the Bay of Biscay. It becomes weakened over southern Europe, strengthening once more in the stormy Gulf of Lyons, continues with great intensity in northern Italy, then loses intensity as it crosses the Bosnian Island, and finally passes through southern Russia where it rapidly dies out. Returning to the main belt of storminess, we find that after it has crossed Asia,

Starting point is 11:11:01 it is joined in the Pacific Ocean by a branch which has been highly developed in Japan, but which weakens Northwood. The combined branches cross the Pacific Ocean to the American shore. Then in southern Canada and the northern United States, after crossing to the east side of the Rocky Mountains, the belt once more becomes extremely stormy. It is joined by a branch from Colorado, and so completes its course back to the point of greatest intensity.

Starting point is 11:11:30 Several features of figure 48 deserve careful attention. In the first place, wherever the storms in their eastward course approach an extensive highland, they tend to be weakened or deflected, after which they may or may not recover their former intensity. This may be seen on the western side of North America, where storms are relatively rare until the rocky mountains have been crossed. The highlands of Western Europe are not great enough to destroy the storms, but the main build is broken into several branches, each of which seeks to avoid the high country. The northern branch would apparently skirt the whole of Scandinavia,

Starting point is 11:12:05 where not that Samana and force prevents it from going much to the north of the Arctic Circle. The next avoids the Welsh and English Highlands, crosses into the North Sea over the lowest part of England, receives an ascension of intensity, and follows a line of least resistance along the Baltic and across the plains of Russia. Ultimately, however, the vast expanse of Eurasia, especially when it becomes a high-pressure center in winter, largely overcomes the tendency of the air to move in the cycle.

Starting point is 11:12:37 clonic fashion and storms become rare. The third branch which swings to a farther north is also greatly weakened when it reaches the land of southern France but becomes very pronounced in the northern Mediterranean, only to be weakened once more by the Balkan Highland. Another important feature of figure 48 is a peculiar detached areas of high storminess in northern Italy and Japan. In the United States, two similar areas are visible on a large-scale map of storms, although they are massed in figure 48. In both cases they are apparently remnants of a southern or subtropical belt whose existence at times of many sunspots is described in climatic changes.

Starting point is 11:13:18 Another belt where storminess increases greatly at times of sunsport, Maxima, is found on the north side of the present belt. It tends to reduce the habitability of the northern parts of Europe and North America, but with that we are not now concerned. In the southern belt of increased storminess, whereas sunspots are numerous, the American areas move somewhat southward, become intensified, and lengthen east and west until they call this, forming a continuous, although very faint belt. In Eurasia, the same thing seems to happen, although the meteorological records in Asia are not yet sufficient to permit us to test it. If the American subtropical belt were intensified, by the way that appears to have occurred in the past, its plates of maximum storminess were properly. be in the Gulf of Mexico.

Starting point is 11:14:07 Though the obstacles presented by the highlands of the southwestern United States of Mexico give place to the open sea and allow free play for the development of storms. A development of this subtropical storm belt seems to be a pronounced feature of the changes which now take place from Sunspot minima to maxima and would presumably be magnified if the changes were on a greater scale than those of the 11-year cycle. Hence we should infer that when the mayors made their greatest progress, their country was blessed with a stormy area like that of the Gulf of Lyons, which now does much to make northern Italy far more progressive than the southern part of the country. Under such conditions, the climate

Starting point is 11:14:50 of Yucatan would have been comparatively stimulating in spite of its warmth. For doing much of the year, cool waves from the north would have been frequent. In Eurasia, the same principles apply with appropriate modifications because of the topography and the size of the continents. If the subtropical storm belt should be magnified in the way that seems characteristic of times of many sunspots, it would apparently reach its chief development in the places where the great civilizations of the past were located. The present Italian centre would presumably move south and then expand eastward along the open Mediterranean, leaving the highlands of Asia Minor on its northern flank. It would pass over the Syrian mountains before it could not spread eastward in any other way.

Starting point is 11:15:39 Possibly it would be forced a little southward so that northern Egypt and Palestine would get its full force. In the lee of the mountains, the storminess of the Syrian desert would be less than that of Syria. But by the time the storms reached Mesopotamia, they would have had an opportunity to form themselves anew, and we should expect a world-developed center. In Persia, judging by what happens today, this would be weakly. but not destroyed. Then the great plans in northern India would permit the storms together once more in a centre corresponding to the faint one of today. That would probably be the end of any distinct belt for a thousand miles, for the eastern

Starting point is 11:16:18 Himalayas and the mountains of Western China interpose so tremendous a barrier that we should not expect the Japanese center, even though it moved southward and westward, to coalesque with the Italian. The plains of central China, especially the Ansi-Baheastern, Valley would be the place where the present Japanese center would be most highly developed, provided suffer changes corresponding to those indicated in the corresponding American area. Japan, on the other hand, would presumably be less stormy than now, for the storm tracks would be pushed southward in oceanward. If these things actually occurred at the times indicated by our Californian curve, the countries

Starting point is 11:16:58 which now stand highest in civilization would then have had a long cold winter, ending in a very stormy spring and followed by a cold damp summer. The stimulating qualities of the climate would have been less than now, and the possibilities of agriculture, especially in such places as Germany, would have been much diminished. In the countries like Greece where civilization was then at its highest, on the contrary, the number of storms and the duration of the stormy period would have been decided greater than now. The rainfall also would have been greater so that agriculture would have been favoured. More important than this, however, would have been the higher degree of climatic stimulus because of frequent changes of temperature. To apply the matter correctly,

Starting point is 11:17:44 Lower Egypt has an average temperature of about 80 Celsius during July, and Mesopotamia and northern India are even hotter. Three thousand years ago, the heat was probably almost equally intense at certain periods, although somewhat less extreme on an average, and by no means so uniform. All the summers were probably hotter than was the summer of 1911 in the northeastern United States. That summer in some localities was the most severe for a century, yet its effect on work was no worse than that of an ordinary winter. In Mesopotamia and Egypt, summers of that kind doubtless made people slow and inert. They were probably not so bad as the present summers. However, for although no appreciable quantity of rain may have fallen, a large number of storm,

Starting point is 11:18:31 must have passed over regions not far to the north. Such storms would stir the air and bring fresh breezes. Everyone knows that in hot weather, a change in the wind even without rain is most refreshing. When the summer was over, the storm built, according to our hypothesis, would migrate southward in its normal fashion, and soon Egypt and Mesopotamia would be swept by storm after storm.

Starting point is 11:18:57 During the early fall and late spring, conditions would be about as they are in the home, of our Connecticut factory operatives during cool summers such as 1912 or 1913. For the intervening five or six months, the average temperature would range from about 55 degrees to 65 degrees Fahrenheit. There would be a constant succession of cool waves, and the conditions would be almost ideal for great physical activity. Thus, even though the summers were distinctly bad, the total debilitating effect would be little greater than that of summer, and winter combined in the Connecticut In Greece and Italy, with their more favourable main temperature, conditions would be still better than in Egypt or Mesopotamia. In the same way, favourable conditions appear to have prevailed in each of the great countries of the past at the time when it made its most rapid progress.

Starting point is 11:19:49 The two favourses of our climatic hypothesis are now before us. In point of time, though not a presentation in this book, the first step was a study of the climate of the past. the climate of the past. Ten years of work along this line had led to the hypothesis of pulsatory changes, and finally to the idea that the changes consisted primarily of a shifting of the belt of storms. After this conclusion had been reached, a wholly independent investigation of the effect of present climatic conditions upon human activity led to two conclusions, neither of which was anticipated. One was that in the eastern United States the cold weather of winter is as bad for work as for health,

Starting point is 11:20:34 while only the warmest summers cause any serious curtailment of work. The other words that storminess and variability from day to day are of great importance. On the basis of these two conclusions, it at once becomes evident that the stimulating effect of climate in the same latitude and having the same kind of seasonal changes may be very different. It also becomes clear that the distribution of civilization at the present time closely resembles that of climatic energy. From this, the next step is naturally back to our previous conclusion

Starting point is 11:21:08 that changes of climate in the past have consisted largely of variations in the location of the storm belt. If this is so, evidently, the amount of climatic stimulus must have arrived correspondingly. Thus we are led to the final conclusion that, not only at present, but also in the past, no nation has risen to the highest grade of civilization except in regions where their climatic stimulants is great. This statement sums up our entire hypothesis. It seems to be the inevitable result of the facts that are bavorous.

Starting point is 11:21:41 Other factors, to be sure, are also highly important. One of them is natural selection, a subject so much neglected in its bearing on human history that I made at the theme of a book on The Character of Races, which might almost be considered the continuation of the present book. The development of human culture and spread from land to land is, I believe, a third factor quite as important as either of the others. Yet unless we have gone wholly astray, the surprising way in which independent lines of investigation dovetail into one another seems to indicate that a favorable climate is one of the essential conditions of high civilization.

Starting point is 11:22:19 End of Section 16 Section 17 of Civilisation and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington This is a Librevox recording or Libravox recordings are in the public domain For more information on a volunteer Please visit Libravox.org

Starting point is 11:22:41 Recorded by Leon Harvey Chapter 17 Aboriginal America and Modern Australia Having seen that the objections to climatic pulsations are largely based upon misapprehensions let us now take up certain other objections to our hypothesis of the relation between civilization and climate.

Starting point is 11:23:03 How about the high civilizations of the past in places outside the storm belt, the objector may say? Yucatan and Guatemala may possibly have been stormy, but surely not Peru, southern Arabia, Rhodesia, Ceylon, Java and Indo-China. Yet in the past, these have boasted a civilization much higher than now prevails there. The force of this objection must frankly be admitted. The ruins of Indo-China and northern Ceylon and any other traces of high civilization located in tropical lowlands, with the exception of Yucatan and Guatemala,

Starting point is 11:23:40 appear to have little relation to our hypothesis. Nevertheless, they do not require a modification of it. More probably they represent the triumph of other factors over the climatic factor. They apparently indicate one or both of two, things. First, they appear to represent a temporary wave of progress due to the incursion of higher cultures from more favoured regions such as India or the neighbouring highlands. If that is so, they possess no more significance for our climatic hypothesis, then do the railroads and other

Starting point is 11:24:13 innovations introduced by Europeans within the past few decades. In addition to this, they probably indicate that prolonged migration or other difficult circumstances gave rise to pronounced natural selection. Thus the people who built the wonderful ruins of Java and Indul China, as I've shown in the character of races, and perhaps those of Ceylon, Peru, Southern Arabia, and Ordeja, had presumably been gradually sifted so that only a very competent remnant was left. Under such circumstances, the effects of climate seem to be overcome for a while, but reassert themselves in due time as the strong inheritance becomes diluted or weakened.

Starting point is 11:24:56 Another possibility is that the small and insignificant belt of storms which now transverses northern India may have been intensified in the past. In eastern India, because of the barrier of great mountains, a branch may have swung southeast around the lofty Burmese mountains to the neck of the Malay-Pilinshire, and then north to join the storm belt which now traverses Japan. In crossing the plans of Cambodia, where the most remarkable ruins of southeastern Asia are located, and may have developed a distinct storm center like that of northern Italy. The conditions would resemble those inferred in Yucatan and Guatemala, although perhaps less favorable because cold waves would be checked by the Great Mountains. Indo-China and Central America lie in the same relative position in their respective continents,

Starting point is 11:25:46 a fact which may have considerable significance. I do not, however, attach much importance to what has just been said about storms in southeastern Asia. for it is pure supposition. Other conditions such as racial selection and spread of the highly developed culture of India seem competent to explain a large part of the sudden rise of these regions, while the tropical climate largely explains that rapid decline. Yemen, Rhodesia and Peru furnished admirable examples of comparatively high civilizations which developed in tropical highlands and lasted for a considerable period

Starting point is 11:26:24 without much intercourse with regions of higher culture. They lie at such an altitude that the main temperature never departs far from the optimum. For instance, at Fontaine, near the Rhodesian ruins of Zimbabwe. The figures are 54 degrees Fahrenheit in June and 71 degrees in November. For Yemen, none are available. By judging by the altitude, its temperature is probably slightly lower than that of Rhodesia. Even at Kusko, the elevated capital,

Starting point is 11:26:54 of Old Peru, although the monthly main temperature according to Wuhan, ranges from 46 degrees in July to 52 degrees in November. The conditions are very stimulating compared with tropical no lands. The temperature is too low for comfort, to be sure, but it is of the type that appears to stimulate mental activity. If immigrants possessed of an unusually high inheritance, either by reason of strenuous natural selection or of actual biological mutations should come to such a region. The relatively stimulating quality of the climate would combine with their innate ability to enable them speedily to dominate the indigenous population and to develop many new ideas. Yet we should not expect such a civilization to endure so long or rise so high as those in more favoured regions.

Starting point is 11:27:44 The people would tend to exhaust themselves, for they would never experience any restful changes of seasons, and would be stimulated at all times. To revert to an earlier illustration, their condition would be like that of a horse, which is always driven at full speed. Such a horse might go rapidly for a while, but would wear himself out at an age when carefully driven animals were in their prime. The constant nervous excitation produced by such a climate in immigrants from a less favorable region would induce both progress and decay. The most nervous people would die out partially because they would exert themselves too strenuously and partially because nervousness is a potent agency in reducing the birth rate. Self-control would also be weakened, thus leading to vice and excess of various kinds. The chewing of the coca leaf, a narcotic, which is thought by many people to be one great cause of the backwardness of Peru today,

Starting point is 11:28:45 would harm the high strung, competent parts of the community more than the dull, apathetic ones. In various other ways, such a climate as that of Peru would be stimulating for a while, but would lead to exhaustion sooner than one where greater furibility prevails. We now come to perhaps the strong subjection, aside from the question of the reality of climatic changes. A large part of this book is being concerned with the United States. The present status of their country is one of the main foundations which originally led to the framing of our hypothesis. Yet before the coming of the white man, savagery prevailed where civilization is now highest. In the 16th century, the climate must have been approximately the same as that of today,

Starting point is 11:29:33 so that no explanation can be sought along that line. It is true to be sure that before the coming of the white man, the most energy, the climate and capable of the Indian tribes lived in what is now the northeastern United States. Dixon, for example, in the racial history of man, says that the Iroquois and southern Algonquin tribes were among the first of those north of Mexico in ability and prowess. Many other authorities speak in similar fashion. Whistler, in Manan Culture, reproduces a map by Moorhead, showing that the region from Illinois to New York was an important center of culture,

Starting point is 11:30:09 culture from which many new types of stone ornaments spread in all directions. In spite of this, we are still confronted by the stubborn fact that before the coming of the white man, no great civilization had ever developed in the northern United States, while Mexico, although far inferior climatically, harbored a relatively civilized population. At first this seems to prove that our hypothesis cannot be correct. Yet more careful examination leads to a different conclusion. The distribution of civilization in pre-Columbian America merely brings out a fact which I have again and again try to emphasize, although climate is highly important.

Starting point is 11:30:48 There are other factors whose weight is equally great. Even if our hypothesis be fully accepted, no less importance will thereby attach to the other great factors which condition the events of history. Because a man dies for lack of air, we do not think that air is more essential than food, drink, warmth, the circulation of the blood, the reproduction of the species, the ravages are virulent germs and many other conditions. So it is in history. Even if our climatic ideas are correct, it will still be true that the ordinary events of the historical record are due to the differing traits of races, the force of economic pressure, the ambition of kings,

Starting point is 11:31:30 the intrigues of statesmen, the zeal of religion, the jealousy of races, the rise of men of genius, the evolution of new political or social institutions, and other similar circumstances. Yet a comprehension of the part played by the climatic factor will enable us to explain some of the many events which Hitherow have puzzled us. Not all will be thus explained, for those must wait until the action of some other set of as yet unknown conditions is understood. In the present case, I believe that the explanation of the failure of the Indians to rise to a level equal to that to the people of the old world is found partially in inheritance and partially in the history of their culture.

Starting point is 11:32:14 I shall not dwell on inheritance, although it may be of great importance. In the Red Man's Continent, and more fully the character of races, I have set forth the hypothesis that the Aboriginal Americans, during their migration from Asia by way of Siberia and Alaska, suffer a diverse natural selection due to the severe Arctic environment. This may have given them a permanent kept compared with the people of Europe and Western Asia, among whom the selection was peculiarly favourable. Among the Americans, so it seems, there was a premium on powers of passive resistance and endurance. Moreover, among all hunting tribes, there is a premium upon the ability to make sudden but not prolonged efforts, such as are involved in hunting and raiding. Only when

Starting point is 11:33:01 agriculture is introduced does a new type of natural selection put a premium upon such qualities a steady industry. Among hunting tribes, moreover, the acquisitive temperament which stores up food or other property for periods of want. There's not nearly so great an advantage, and it's so strong a selective factor as among those who practice agriculture. Because the wandering hunter cannot transport much property, he loses the biological advantage which causes the people who have a careful, thrifty spirit to have a greater chance of survival than have the careless and unthrifty. Turning now to the cultural side of early America, at least two great factors appear to have imposed a tremendous handicap upon the Indians of the northeastern United States.

Starting point is 11:33:45 One is the absence of tools of iron, and the other the lack of beasts of burden. These, in conjunction with the type of vegetation, offers such hindrance that the Indians could probably never have developed a very high civilization, even if they had been as competent as the races of Europe. The discovery of the use of iron depends on the coincidence of three conditions whose occurrence is almost accidental. One is the birth of a man with sufficient inventive genius to devise a way of obtaining the metal from rocky wars. The second is the occurrence of wars and other necessary materials within easy reach of such a man. The third is that the genius must be so relieved from the fear of enemies, the danger of starvation and the ravages of disease, that he has both time and strength to elaborate his idea.

Starting point is 11:34:36 The combination of these three fortunate circumstances never occurred in America. Although a little native copper was used, we have no assurance that the oil was ever smelted in any large amounts. It certainly never was used to any great extent. Iron, except a few bits from meteorites, was absolutely unknown. Hence, through no fault of their own, the original Americans were dependent upon such tools as they could fashion from flint, obsidian, and other stones, or from bones, shells, wood, and similar materials.

Starting point is 11:35:10 We are so accustomed to iron tools that we scarcely realize their immense importance. Consider their effect upon agriculture. Go into a virgin forest with its labyrinth of trees. Imagine the task of cutting them down with a stone hatchet. The mere physical labour is such that none but people of high energy would ever attempted. An easier way is to gird all the trees, cutting off the bark in a circle and then leaving them to dry until they can be burned. Even that, however, is a long process. In the moistered parts of the world, its difficulty is greatly increased by the fact that while the trees are becoming dry enough to burn,

Starting point is 11:35:49 new vegetation is rapidly growing. In many tropical regions, as we have already seen, the clearing of the forests is scarcely feasible even today. In tempera forests, the difficulties are not so great, but they are practically insurmountable from the standpoint of a savage who has never known the meaning of hard steady work. In the hunting stage, a man may follow the trail until he falls from exhaustion, but that does not give him the power to wield a stone axe by day after day upon stubborn trees. Hence, if agriculture is to be practiced by primitive people, it must originate regions where there are no forests. The vegetation must be such that the primitive savage with his hands or with a stick or stone can easily rub it up, or else it must be so scanty that it would not interfere with his crops. Anyone who has seen the agriculture practiced by people who were just emerging from some other mode of making a living knows that the fields are sown in the spring and they generally left untended until the time of harvest. Since the people are not yet able to get their living entirely from the crops, which is always the case during the transition.

Starting point is 11:36:57 period. They must be forced carry on the old occupations while the crops are growing. Hence the weeds are allowed to grow as freely as the grain. In a dry climate where the natural growth consists only of bunchy grasses or low bushy weeds which grow apart from one another and can easily be pulled up with the hands before the next sewing. This does little harm. In winter regions such as the forest areas, the weeds are much more difficult to eradicate. The reader has probably noticed that I have said nothing about grass lands. The reason is that primitive people never attempt to cultivate them.

Starting point is 11:37:35 If grass covers the entire ground and forms what we commonly call sod, crops cannot be raised in it. The dry grass may be burned off in the early spring and seeds may be dropped in holes punched with a sharp stick, but no crop will be reaped. The roots of the grass are not killed. The new blades shoot up at once, and by the time the seeds begin to sprout are so high, as to strangle them. The primitive savage, who has no iron tools, cannot possibly dig up the sod.

Starting point is 11:38:02 Even if he has such tools, the laboriousness of the task bans it as a practical method of making a living. If anyone doubt this, let him spade up a turfy spot ten feet in diameter. Then let him calculate how many days he would have to dig in order to make living for himself and his family by sowing grain. Let him also determine how a primitive savage who had to do this type. would support himself and his children while he was digging before he could get a first crop. Finally remember that the savage had no good spade to help him, but only a clumsy, heavy stones set in a handle,

Starting point is 11:38:38 a brittle bone or a piece of wood rudely shaped into a flat implement. I have emphasized the difficulties for grassland because they apply directly to the problem of civilization among the Indians. The part of North America, which is highly stimulating climatically, is covered either with grass of the prairie and Great Plains type or with temperate forest. It is universally recognized that a high state of civilization is impossible unless it is based on agriculture. Otherwise people must wander all the time. They cannot accumulate the appliances which are essential even to the lowest real civilization.

Starting point is 11:39:18 They are not attached to the soil and thus have no incentive to improve a particular tract. If they possess domestic animals, the case is better, for these foster the sense of ownership and various other feelings which serve as uplifting influences. In North America, no domestic animals except the dog and the turkey were known to the Aborigines. This was not the fault of the Indians. The horse and camel families were then extinct in North America. The bison was the only animal, the ox family, with which the Indians came. tame in contact. It was too large and fused to be domesticated. The mountain sheep might

Starting point is 11:39:53 possibly have been tamed, but it is very wild. Its habitat is the barren mountains and is too small to plow sod. Even if the Indians had been familiar with the idea of taming beasts of burden, they could not have achieved any important success. Without beasts of burden, ploughing is impossible, unless the ground is plowed, grasslands, as we have seen, cannot be cultivated. Therefore, civilization could not flourish in the grassy plans in North America before the coming of the white man. A few highly favorite spots, such as river-flat plains where the grass grows in bunches and does not form turf, where it cultivated. But the areas of that kind were too small and scattered to give rise to any widespread progress. They were exposed to the bravedges of Indians who had not yet learned the value of permanent abodes and individual property.

Starting point is 11:40:43 True primary requisites of civilization. The people who lived upon them were swamped in the flood of surrounding savagery. Moreover, the places which they were able to cultivate were subject to floods and other disasters, so that the cultivators were often forced to rely on the chase. Then again, without iron tools or beasts of burden, a man cannot cultivate a large area because the task is so great. Therefore the crops were likely to be insufficient to support the family throughout the air, even when the harvest was good. The only recourse was the chase. In Asia, people who were in such circumstances might rely on domestic animals, but not in America.

Starting point is 11:41:22 Hence it was practically impossible for the Indians of the grassy plains to get away from the savage life of the hunter. In the forest which covered all the eastern states, conditions were scarcely better. A man might girdle enough trees and cut enough brush to make a small field. When the wood was dry, he might burn it and obtain a crop of corn. While it was maturing, he and his family would make a living by hunting and fishing. The crop would support them through the winter, but is extremely doubtful whether they would ever cease to regard hunting as a main source of livelihood. The reason is this.

Starting point is 11:41:58 The first crop on a burned piece of forest land in the eastern United States meets with little difficulty. For the second crop, it is necessary to cut down and burn the weeds and bushes that have grown up during the preceding summer. that the savage has no iron hoe. His seeds are planted haphazard here and there among the stumps, and he cannot tend his garden while it is growing, but must go off and hunt. When he cuts the bushes and weeds, the second spring, he does not root up the grass. He has no spade with which to dig it up, and no ox or donkey to draw a plow. If he takes good care of his field, he soon

Starting point is 11:42:37 finds that he has a meadow of tough sod on his hands. If he neglects it, he has a few, acres of bushes. In either case, if he would make a living from agriculture, he must go through the labour of clearing a new field. Meanwhile, he still must be a nomadic hunter. He takes no great pride in his field. He does not care to improve it. He rarely builds a permanent house beside it. Why should he? Next year, or at most in two or three years, he must build another. In a few specially favourite spots, the conditions may be such that agriculture is not quite so difficult. In the north, where the stimulating climate is found, such spots are few and dull. The chief reason for wonder is that the Indians had enough energy to cultivate any crops whatever.

Starting point is 11:43:25 In the southern states, the grass not form so dense as sod as in the north, but even there the difficulties are great. Yet a beginning had been made, and the civilized nations, including the Cherokees and others, lived in permanent villages and practiced agriculture as a main means of getting a living. If they had had iron tools in Occident, America today might be filled with highly civilized Indians instead of Anglo-Saxons and other Europeans. Thus, although an appropriate physical environment and a strong mental inheritance may be essential to the rise of a great civilization, these two conditions may be, at their best, yet savagery, may prevail because certain cultural essentials such as iron or beasts of burden are lacking.

Starting point is 11:44:11 In this example of people who lived in one of the finest climates but failed to make progress, let us turn to a case of quite the opposite type. The white settlers in Northern Australia live in an almost tropical climate, which is poor as climates are rated in this book. Nevertheless, they maintain a high civilization and believe that they can raise that civilization still higher. There is sometimes sight as proof that climate in itself has little or no effect on health, that high civilizations may arise regardless of climate.

Starting point is 11:44:43 Nowhere else in all the world does so large a body of white people, chiefly of British descent, live within the tropics. Some 200,000 upon whom the sun shines vertically at certain seasons are doing all the work of life with their own hands. The men work in the fields, on the docks, and among the cattle and sheep. They cut sugarcane under the tropical sun, but their health does not appear to suffer. The women work in intolerably hot kitchens, often among swarms of pestiferous flies, and at rooms with the blazing sun on the unsealed roof joins with the kitchen fire to produce an appalling temperature. Yet that death rate is phenomenally low, and they give birth to unusually healthy children. In fact, the death rate in tropical Australia among all classes of the

Starting point is 11:45:30 population is one of the lowest in the world. In order to make fair comparisons between regions where the proportion of young people is unusually large and those where the proportion is smaller. Let us use what is known as a standard population. On this basis, which is universally accepted as a far as yet devised, the death rate in Queensland, the most northerly state of Australia, was 12.1 during the normal years before the World War. Compared to this with 10.5 in New Zealand, which is the healthiest country in the world, 12.4 in Denmark, the healthiest country in Europe, 15.2 in England and 16.1 in the part of the United States then included in the registration area.

Starting point is 11:46:15 In addition to this, the medical examinations of young men who enlisted during the World War, showed that the Queenslanders, even the tropical Queenslanders, were certainly not less robust and vigorous than those from other parts of Australia, and much more so than we, the similar men of England. Moreover, children of the second and third generation have been born in tropical Australia and refined active specimens. It seems to be proved beyond question that the white man can live in tropical Australia, that he can enjoy good health, and that white children of high vitality can be born there, live there all their lives and become the parents of other children who seem to be equally healthy. These facts are highly important and encouraging.

Starting point is 11:46:59 They hold out a definite and not unreasonable hope that someday a branch of the white race may live permanently within the tropics and carry on all the work of life without the help of any coloured race. The fond hope of the Australians that they may permanently be a white Australia is by no means without foundation. Does this invalidate our hypothesis of the relation between climate and civilization? Let us see what the facts really are. The Australians are so much interested in the problem of a white Australia that their

Starting point is 11:47:31 Commonwealth Statistican has issued a special bulletin on Tropical Australia. He has also currently placed in my disposal certain other unpolished data. I'm afraid that I shall seem to the Australians to use these data in a way that they will not like. But after all, what they really want is the truth. I am perhaps as keen as they are from White Australia. Not only do I want to see my own race show its ability to conquer every kind of environment, but I'm extremely anxious to see a conclusive tropical experiment on a large scale.

Starting point is 11:48:05 I want to know beyond question whether white man can live permanently in a tropical country, conquer the diseases and make progress without the help or hindrance of any coloured race. Tropical Australia affords by far the greatest opportunity for such an experiment. It is peculiarly free from tropical diseases, and there seems to be no good reason why should failed to be kept free. Its coloured inhabitants are few in number and most of them belong to the Aboriginal Australian race which seems to be dying out and which is quite easily kept separate from the whites and is under a government which is disposed to do everything possible to make the experiment of success. I would

Starting point is 11:48:44 give a great deal to be able to see what kind of people live in tropical Australia one or two hundred years hence but at the tropical Australians of the next few generations are to succeed indeed it's they are to avoid great misery perhaps, they must know exactly what they are facing. To let the dream of a white Australia and the hope of developing a great country blind ourselves to the facts is sure to produce evil. We have already seen how extraordinarily low is the death rate of Queensland. If we take only the part of Australia that lies within the tropics, we find that during the years 1920, 1921 and 2022, the following remarkable conditions prevailed.

Starting point is 11:49:25 Tables displayed on the page comparing the birth rate per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, infant death rate per 1,000 births, female death rate per 1,000 births and male death rate per 1,000 persons. All these are compared to Australia as a whole, non-tropical Queensland and tropical Queensland. In the first three of these conditions, non-tropical Queensland is more healthful and vigorous than Australia as a whole, or tropical Queensland is still more healthful and vigorous. In other words, the white women in the tropical part of Queensland enjoy remarkably good health. They give birth to a relatively large number of children, and those children are uncommonly healthy.

Starting point is 11:50:07 What more could one ask as a recommendation of the climate of a country? The men, to be sure, have a much higher death rate than those of other parts of Australia, but from the standpoint of the future of the race, they are much less important than the women and children. The census bulletin on tropical Australia attempts to again. explain the differences between the death rates of men and women as follows. As both sexes should be affected by tropical conditions to something approaching an equal degree, it is apparent that there must be some cause, apart from purely tropical attributes, to account for the unfavorable male death rate. The great excess of men over women in the tropical population suggests that

Starting point is 11:50:47 there are many men living under primitive conditions. Under such circumstances, there is too frequently a disregard for precautionary sanitary measures and a reckless neglect of the first symptoms of disease. There are other cases too, where it is impossible by reason of great distance to procure medical or surgical assistance. It would appear to be mainly to such circumstances as these that the high male death rate in the tropical parts of Queensland is due. Otherwise, a great difference between the mortality of the sexes is not readily explained. There may be some truth in this, for in tropical Queensland, there were in 1921 about 133 men for every 100 women. Nevertheless, it must be a minor factor.

Starting point is 11:51:36 Not only is it generally believe that frontier life is far more helpful than city life, but much more than half the men of tropical Australia, as well as a still larger proportion of the women, live in the towns, where there are physicians and often hospitals. Moreover, as appears in the last sentence of the quotation from the Census Bulletin, the isolation of the men on the frontier is appealed to as an explanation of their high death rate only in the absence of any other reasonable cause. There is, however, another reasonable cause of the low death rate among the women. A cause which the census recognizes as applying to the population as a whole,

Starting point is 11:52:15 but does not recognize as applying to women more than to men. That causes a natural selection. As a bulletin on Tropical Australia puts it, perhaps the most potent influence in causing the low death rate of tropical Australia, as being that sort of natural selection which operates in the settlement of all new territories. It may be stated as a rule that only the bolder and more virile of any community will venture on the role of pioneer in new unsettled country, and when such a new country is a tropical one to which popular opinion generally ascribes more than usual discomfort,

Starting point is 11:52:51 physical standard the settlers is probably more than ordinarily high. The logical corollary of this statement is that among women the selection of those who are physically fit is much stronger than among men. Young men rarely think of their health. Young women think of there is a great deal, and between men and women, 30 to 50 years of age, the contrast is still greater. That the women distribute themselves over tropical Australia in a different way from the men is obvious from the fact that in the tropical part of Western Australia,

Starting point is 11:53:21 which is the most inaccessible and undeveloped. There were in 1921, about 524 men for every 100 women. In the tropical part of the Northern Territory, which is not quite so remote, the number of men per 100 women was 271, in Tropical Queensland, which is still better, 133, and in Townsville, one of the two largest cities, 108. On the other hand, in Rockhampton, which is the largest city of tropical Australia, and also the one located farther south, and hence in the least

Starting point is 11:53:53 innovating climate so far as the coast is concerned, the number of men per one for women was only 94. In other words, the women became relatively more and more numerous as one gets away from two conditions, namely the frontier and a truly tropical climate. But this does not end the matter. The women tend not only to concentrate in the best parts of tropical Queensland, but to remain out of tropical Australia altogether,

Starting point is 11:54:20 or else to go away after once getting there. This is evident from the fact that among children up to the age of about 15 years, the relative number of boys and girls are normal. From that age onward, the number of men in proportion to women steadily increases. For example, among young people 15 to 19 years of age, there are 110 boys for 100 girls. But at the age of 30 to 34 years, this proportion has increased to 155, while between the ages of 65 to 69 it rises to 249.

Starting point is 11:54:52 Yet in the normal population of this latter age, there are only about 89 men for 100 women. Whereas such conditions prevail, it needs no demonstration to prove that women either have never come to tropical Australia or have come and gone away. In either case, it is certain that a large number of the women are missing because of their health.

Starting point is 11:55:14 One has only to talk with those who are still there, or the Australian physicians to learn how often the men like the climate while the women dislike it, and how often the health of the wife or daughter causes a family either to move away or to be temporarily separated. The women frequently go to the cooler south, while the men stay in the tropical north. Often the whole family moves away from tropical Australia because the women do not like the climate. The selective process which causes the men in a new tropical country to be especially strong and vigorous works still, or more effectively in causing the women and hence the children to be even more markedly of the same type. The low death rate in tropical Australia does not indicate that the climate is favourable,

Starting point is 11:55:57 but merely their natural selection has been unusually vigorous. Now look at the matter in still another way. Here is little table showing the death rate among persons from 15 to 49 years of age in the three Australian states of Victoria, which is the most southerly and hence the coolest. New South Wales, which also lies quite far to the south, and Queensland which lies so far to the north that a quarter of its population is within the tropics. The death rate has been calculated according to a standard population, so as to eliminate any differences arising from the fact that there are more young people in one section than in another. The residents of the three states have been divided according to their birthplace. the great majority of Australians being natives of one of the three states or else of England or Scotland.

Starting point is 11:56:48 A table is displayed on the page, death rates per standard population at age 15 to 49 years in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland, according to places of birth and residence, 1920, 9021 and 2022. The significant fact about the table is this. No matter whether they reside in Victoria, New South Wales or Queensland, the people who were born in Queensland have a high high-eastern. death rate than those born in the other two Australian states or in England or Scotland. If we combine the figures in the last column, it appears that the residents of Australia who were born in Victoria, England, Scotland and New South Wales have an average death rate of 4.01. On the other hand, the death rate among the people born in Queensland, no matter where they reside, is 4.66 or approximately 15% greater. The high death rate

Starting point is 11:57:37 of Queenslanders in Victoria or New South Wales may be due to the fact that Queenslanders whose health is impaired migrate to those core states. But in that case, the born Queenslanders who remain in Queensland ought to be stronger than the average and their death rate should be correspondingly low. On the contrary, their death rate exceeds that of the people born in any of the other four regions. In other words, although the people whose residence is in Queensland have a very low death rate, who are born there have a high death rate.

Starting point is 11:58:10 Those who reside there were largely born elsewhere, and have had the advantage of a strenuous, though unconscious process of natural selection. Those who were born there are more nearly like the average of their race than were their selected parents, for that is the universal biological rule, and they show what seems to be the effect of the tropical climate. Another significant fact in this connection is the number of children per family. We have already seen that in proportion to the number of women between 15 and 44 years of age, the birth rate in Queensland is higher compared with the rest of Australia, and

Starting point is 11:58:47 is still higher in the tropical sections. That apparently is due to the fact that the weaker women either leave their husbands in the north and go to the cooler south or else persuade their husbands to move away. Those who remain are strong and vigorous and have many children, but when we examine the number of children born to persons who are Queenslanders by birth, regardless of what part of Australia they later reside in. We find quite a different condition. The following figures show the number of children born to persons

Starting point is 11:59:17 whose own birthplace was in various regions and who died in Australia during the year in 1921. Germany 6.3. Ireland 5.8. Scotland 5.7. England 5.4. New South Wales 5.1. Tasmania 5.0. South Australia 4.5.5. Victoria 4.1, Queensland, 3.8. The high birth rate among the foreign-born Australians is normal.

Starting point is 11:59:45 There is nothing surprising about the differences among the birth rates of people born in New South Wales, Tasmania and South Australia. The low rate among natives of Victoria, however, is not easily explained, elicit B, that Victoria, more than any of the other states, has lost the pioneer frontier quality, and hence has a relatively low birth rate which is normal in old regions. For Queensland, no such explanation can be advanced, for that state is more of the pioneer quality than any other in our table. The most probable explanation is that the birth rate is low for the same reason that the death rate is high.

Starting point is 12:00:21 Both conditions indicated and spite of the strong selective process to which their parents were subjected, the native-born whites of Queensland display qualities which suggest a lower degree of fiscal stamina than prevails among the other Australians, and which seem to be the result of the tropical climate. If this is the case, it strongly bears out the general thesis of this book. Even the part of Australia, where the tropical Queenslanders live is not tropical in the ordinary sense. The climate is indeed quite trying by reason of the length and monitoring of the summer and because the dampness to the coast and the great heat in the interior. There is, however, a real winter in the regions where most the tropical Queenslanders actually live.

Starting point is 12:01:04 For two or three months the temperature almost everywhere falls to between 40 and 50 degrees during the night, while on the highlands there is often frost. If a climate so mildly tropical can produce such clear results, it seems probable that a thoroughly tropical climate may handicap the white man to a far greater extent. Nevertheless, I do not despair of the ultimate triumph of the white man over the tropics, and much less do a despair over white Australia. The process of selection for climate has never been really tested. All that has happened thus far has been purely fortituous. The hope of the future, I believe, lies in an orderly and far-sighted selection of the right types of people, as well as in the further development of tropical medicine and hygiene. But suppose a matter of health should be taken care of to such a degree that the white race could leave, thrive,

Starting point is 12:01:58 and permanently reproduce itself within the tropics, with civilization, their advance as in cooler regions, I doubt it. In the first place, the most casual observation in any tropical region shows that the white man as well as the color does not act with so much energy as in cooler climates. No matter how good his health, he is forced to work comparatively slowly or for short hours, or else he exhausts himself. It was a Queensland shape selector, the owner 20 or 30,000 animals who first called my attention to the Queensland Walk. We were watching a man's who slowly sauntered from the hotel to the railroad station. That's the way we all walk after we've been here in Tropical Australia a while. Not only do people almost of necessity walk that way, but they often work that way. In Tropical Australia, just as in other tropical countries,

Starting point is 12:02:52 all sorts of things are allowed to lie at loose ends much more than among the same kind of people in more stimulating climates. The new point which I wish to make in regard to Australia is that natural selection works against a tropical country and is working that way even more now than in the past. This sounds like a contradiction to what has just been said about the strong physique of the Queenslanders and the possibility of building up a genuine tropical race of white men. But there is no contradiction.

Starting point is 12:03:23 I am talking now about the qualities which lead to progress of civilisation. As one goes about in tropical countries, and especially in Australia, one soon finds that the people who complain most about the climate are first, the women, and then the professional men. In other words, it is the people whose work keeps them indoors. The rancher, planter, promoter, real estate agent, cane cutter, and dock laborer do not seem to feel the heat half as much as do the minister, lawyer, doctor, engineer and teacher. These intellectual workers may and do adapt themselves to the climate and achieve results of high importance. Nevertheless, almost without exception, they are on the watch for a chance to get away to a pleasanter and more stimulating climate. Many of them are ready to accept smaller salaries for the sake of being an atmosphere which is physically and mentally more stimulating. In this fact, perhaps, lies one of the greatest hindrances to the development of a higher civilization in countries with our lives.

Starting point is 12:04:25 unfavorable climates. We have already seen this selective process at work in the Bahamas. It is very active in tropical Australia, and it is energetically at work in the southern United States. The greater the wealth of a country, the greater its intellectual and physical activity, the better its transportation system, and the more fully it picks out and educates all its bright sons and daughters, the more likely those same sons and daughters are to move away from the unstimulating environments into those which most fully give scope toward their faculties. In this respect, as in so many others, each new advance of knowledge, each new step in the mastery of nature gives greater power to the regions whose climatic advantages already

Starting point is 12:05:10 help them to be leaders. To him that hath shall be given, and from him that hath not shall be taken away, even that which he seemeth to have. Section 18 of Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Libravox recording, or Libravox Accordings from the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Libravox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 18, The Climatic Hypothesis of Civilization We now come to the final step in our study of the hypothesis that climate ranks with racial inheritance and cultural development as one of the three great factors in determining

Starting point is 12:06:00 the conditions of civilization. As to which of the three is most important, it is impossible to say. The absence of good conditions in any one respect may hold a country back, while all three must rise to a high level if a race is to reach the highest plane of civilization. In this last chapter, I propose to consider one final objection to the general hypothesis that climate has been a determining factor in the geographical distribution of human progress. That objection is that it seems impossible, that changes of climate climate can have exerted so great influence as is claimed in this book.

Starting point is 12:06:35 The first and most obvious effects of climatic changes are economic. We have said little about them in this book because they have been fully discussed in the publications numbered 2, 3, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, 17 and 22 in the list at the end of the preface. A single concrete case will illustrate the matter. In 1909 I visited Palestine That happened to be an unusually dry year During the months of April and May I rode scores of miles on horseback amid fields of wheat

Starting point is 12:07:10 That showed merely a few scanty stalks three to six inches high In Beirshiba I talked with a number of men Who had tried to raise grain during a few preceding years of good rainfall But were financially ruined by the drought of 1909 In Moab many villages which had been recently reoccupied under the stimulus of the building of the Mecca Railroad were being abandoned. The inhabitants were moving back across the Jordan to the better watered parts of the country. Coincident with this migration of the agricultural people away from the dry areas along the borders of the desert,

Starting point is 12:07:47 there were a corresponding outward movement of the Arabs from the desert. Because of the drought, the great tribes from the interior of the Arabian desert, swarmed over the grain fields on the eastern and southern border of Palestine, and let their camels eat up the few scattered stalks of wheat that had survived. The poorer villages shot at the Arabs when they first appeared, then ran in terror to the villages. Soldiers were sent to stop the Arabs, but in vain. The quarrels between the Arabs and the peasants resulted in so many gunshot wounds

Starting point is 12:08:19 that Dr. Patterson of the Presbyterian Hospital at Hepron was swamped with patients. I myself was in an Arab encampment when it was raided by other Arabs. I was held up and my money demanded at another time, and I came in personal contact with raiding parties on three other occasions. Thus a single year of drought brought distress upon all kinds of people. It caused migrations among these of the settled population you occupy the least favoured locations. It set the desert tribes immersion, and it spread poverty, hunger, raids, war, wounds and death in every side. Consider now what must have happened when Palestine changed from a condition of relatively abundant rainfall in

Starting point is 12:09:03 the early part of the Christian area to a condition drier than that of today in the 7th century. Remember that at certain periods such as the 3rd century BC and the beginning of the 7th century AD a relatively rapid change took place. Remember too that Professor Butler of Princeton has been quoted above as saying that an area of 20,000 square miles of land on the eastern border of Syria is now too drive for permanent human occupation, but was once more thickly populated than any area of similar dimensions in England or in the United States outside the immediate vicinity of the large modern cities. This must mean a population of least 100 per square mile or 2 million people.

Starting point is 12:09:47 South of the region described by Butler, there are additional thousands of square miles of similar tried land full of ruins, while further east, in northern Mesopotamia, in the region described above as clay, the same is true. Suppose for the sake of argument that 3 million people lived in these areas which are now to try to be occupied. When a diminution of rainfall gradually rendered this great multitude homeless, a corresponding reduction must have taken place in the productivity of the areas which are still inhabited. Palestine today contains about 650,000 people and Syria about 3 million. There is abundant evidence that when the outlined districts were habitable, the population of the still habitable areas was much greater

Starting point is 12:10:33 than now. Seems then that at the time of Christ, or at least some 400 years earlier, there may have been over 6 million people in these areas of Palestine and Syria. Then what happened? Regions which had been supporting perhaps 9 million people in comparative comfort were so stricken by drought that the homes of about 3 million became almost uninhabitable, while the productivity of the remainder was reduced nearly half. Thus only about 3.5 million people could live where 9 million had lived before. Of course, so great a decline did not occur in a single generation, or even a single century, but a reduction in the capacity of the country from 9 million to 8 million persons

Starting point is 12:11:15 would produce misery, famine, death, migration, raids, wars, and misgovernment to an almost incredible degree. Then would follow a few decades or scores of years of recovery and again a reduction in the capacity of the country to support people. Each such blow must have dragged civilization downward and the resultant chaos of the dark ages is by no means surprising. The misery and discontent due to prolonged poor crops tend to make people unstable, not only politically but in other ways. Religious bitterness is almost sure to increase under such conditions. A portion of the community attributes its poverty to the fact that there is something wrong with the present form of religion. The rest are inclined to attribute their distress to the

Starting point is 12:12:03 wickedness of their neighbours who decry the old religion. Thus bitterness and persecution are engendered. Those who become discontented with the old religion are prone to accept the new ideas propounded by religious enthusiasts. This seems to have been the case where Muhammad made his appeal to the Arabs after the prolonged period of increasing aridity, which culminated with a sudden excess of dryness in the first half of the seventh century. Without the genius of Muhammad, that long period of adversity might have come to an end without any serious upsetting of the old conditions. But without the discontent and unrest fostered by years of distress, Muhammad might have appealed in vain, for he would have had to speak to men who do not desire change. Instead of

Starting point is 12:12:51 to those who ardently longed for it. The people of the desert may perhaps occasionally pour forth from their homes without any special stimulation, but this is doubtful. Anyone who has had much to do with the Arabs and other desert nomads knows that when there is plenty of water and grass, there is very little raiding and fighting. On the other hand, a single dry year causes raids in the fashion described above, and prolonged dry periods appear to lead to great outbursts of desert people, like that which reached its crest under the influence of Muhammadism, although it began before

Starting point is 12:13:27 Muhammad came into prominence. The Mohammedan migration was by no means unique. Many of the barbarian migrations of earlier times seem to have been impelled by similar dry periods. At the latter time, two similar invasions took place, first from about 1,000 AD to 1,200 AD. The climate of central Asia seems to have grown decidedly drier, and distress and discontent reigned among the people.

Starting point is 12:13:52 of the tents. At this time, as in the days of Muhammad, no great concerted movement might have arisen. Had it not been for the ambition of one man, Genghis Khan may have been no more ambitious and no more abler than other gifted men of his race, but he happened to live at a period when natural calamities and brought his people to a condition of discontent favorable to his aspirations. This condition, it would seem, was important help in enabling him in a few years to arouse all the tribes in the steppes and deserts and sweep over Asia bring almost unparalleled devastation. Three centuries later at the beginning of the 16th century, another ambitious Asiatic,

Starting point is 12:14:34 Barber by name, arose in Turkestan and emulated his great ancestor Genghis Khan. In Barber's case, also, physical conditions seem to have favoured his projects, for after a period of improved climate a rather rapid decrease in rainfall culminated at the time, of his conquests. How much this had to do with the fact that he was able to conquer India and establish there the Mongol dynasty had not yet been thoroughly investigated. It seems clear, however, that this dry period should at least be carefully considered before any conclusions are drawn as to Babur and the Mongol conquests of India. From great wars and movements of the nations, let us turn back to the individual people and see how increasing ability may affect

Starting point is 12:15:22 the race physiologically. The chief effect is probably produced by the selective actions of disease. Insidious diseases such as malaria, consumption, nearestemia and the like are presumably among the most important sifters of the wheat from the chaff in the physical makeup of a nation. Although malaria, for example, does not kill people in any such spectacular fashion as do the great epidemics, it may be far more dangerous in its ultimate effects. The plague passes over the land and is gone, the dead are dead, and a living have suffered no serious injury. Malaria, on the contrary, hangs on year after year, not killing its victims but sapping their energy and vitality. The presence and the abundance of malaria are closely

Starting point is 12:16:10 associated with climate and topography. Without entering into any discussion of the origin of malaria, let me point out how a change toward aridity in a country like Greece, and to an extent Italy, would probably foster the disease. Malaria is pre-emptantly a disease of tropical and subtropical countries whose climate is characterized by alternate wet and dry seasons. Except in the perennally moist portions of the tropics, the streams of such regions are subject to seasonal floods which spread over wide areas for a short period and then disappear, leaving innumeral stagnant pools and swamps, ideal breeding places for the Analfields mosquito.

Starting point is 12:16:53 Permanent bodies of water usually contain fish which eat the mosquito larvae and reduce no numbers, or else the water moves sufficiently to carry away most of the eggs that are laid in it. When their climate of the subtropical country becomes drier, the conditions with favor the mosquito are intensified. This is due in large measure to the fact that a diminution of the rainfall lessens the amount of vegetation,

Starting point is 12:17:15 upon the slopes and thus allows the soil to be washed away rapidly. The streams are thereby overloaded and begin to fill the valleys with sand and gravel. This causes the flowing water to wander hither and thither over broad flood plains in innumeral channels, which form pools when the floods or sage. Or it may be that the water loses itself in marginal swamps. The streams also become intermittent, and no longer contain large quantities of fish. Thus everything incorporates to reduce the number of streams which flows steadily throughout the year and to increase the number of bodies of standard water in which the mosquitoes may live.

Starting point is 12:17:55 This in itself may produce most widespread effects. How great they are may be judged from the success the United States government in eradicating malaria at Panama by the opposite process of reducing the number of places where mosquitoes can breed. At the present time, malaria is endemic in Greece and Rome. That is, it is always there, as looked upon as one of the necessary diseases of childhood, which as we look upon measles. Sir Ronald Ross saw the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine is responsible for the statement that nearly half the people of Greece have suffered genuine injury from malaria, and in Italy,

Starting point is 12:18:33 the case is scarcely better. Up to the age of puberty, children are attacked by it every autumn. They grow weak and sallow, their spleen are perfectly. enlarged and their vitality is lower to life. No one who is known much on malaria will question the severity of its results and the length of time which elapses before they are abaticated even in the case of adults. In spite of quinine, which is comte-aid in modern days, malaria is one of the most insidious of diseases. Every traveler who is really familiar with the Orient knows how the sufferers from

Starting point is 12:19:08 malaria lie and grow for days and many have little energy for months. They go languidly to the necessary tasks, and as soon as possible sit down to rest with open, stupid mouths. Physicians agree that it is impossible to expect much initiative or energy from a nation, which for centuries almost half of every generation has been devitalized by this painful disease. From a painstaking study of classical authors, W.O.H. Jones has concluded that up to about 400 BC in Greece and 200 BC in Rome. Malaria was almost unknown. Then it appeared and during the succeeding century or two became common. At first it attacked adults, which shows that it was a

Starting point is 12:19:54 relatively new disease, which was still epidemic and not endemic. Or else, we would add, that Greece was on the very border of its habitat. Later it became permanently located in their respective countries and attacked chiefly children, the older people having become immune after suffering in childhood. It is noticeable that the introduction of malaria coincides with the beginning of the weakening of Greece and Rome, and the time when it became endemic, in Greece at least, is synchronous with the epoch when the lustre of the ancient names became irretrievably dimmed. Ross and Jones are of the opinion that, along with various other factors, malaria is one of the important causes of the fall of Greece and Rome.

Starting point is 12:20:40 The growing effeminacy and lightness of the Greeks and the brutality of the Romans are just the effects which they think would be produced upon people of the respective temperaments of the two races. The case is so strong that one can scarcely resist the conclusion that this pathological factor may have played an important part in the psychological changes which appear to have accompanied the decline of civilization and of population in both Greece and Rome. It would be unwarranted to assert that the increase in the amount and severity of malaria was due wholly to climatic changes.

Starting point is 12:21:14 Other influences, such as contact with Egypt, and the introduction of slaves, may have been equally effective. Nevertheless, it seems probable that the spread of the disease in both Greece and Rome proceeded most rapidly when a change of climate not only rendered the topography at the valleys and the behavior of the streams more favorable than hithero to the propagation of the anaphaelous mosquito, but likewise weakened the forsook of the people so that they readily succumb to disease. Natural selection presents a still more insidious way in which the change, from relatively moist, stormy, cool conditions to those of aridity may have affected the Greek, Roman, and other races.

Starting point is 12:21:56 In the opinion of many scholars, one of the most important factors in the greatness of these powers was the presence of a race of blonde northern invaders. Take the case of Greece. These northern Achaeans apparently came into the country in the 13th century BC. Their coming may have been influenced by the dry period of which we find some evidence at that time, both in America and Asia. After their arrival, the climate on the whole, although with many fluctuations, appears to have become more propitious. After the third century it continued to be favorable. then it became more arid.

Starting point is 12:22:32 We have seen how sensitive people are to climatic environment. The Negro would apparently disappear in the northern United States, were we not replenished from the South. The Scandinavian does not seem to prosper greatly in the dry, sunny portions of the United States. He is there subject to diseases of the skin and nerves which appear seriously to deplete his numbers in a few generations. Whereas in the rainy northwest, which resembles his native habitat, he thrives greatly both in body and a state.

Starting point is 12:23:04 It was probably the same were the northern invaders in Greece. So long as the climate was perpetuous, they flourished and lent strength to the country. Then, when conditions became less favorable, the unseen ravages of malaria and other diseases presumably attacked them with special severity. And in the course of centuries, they gradually disappeared. Today, Blonde Greeks are almost unknown, although classical literature and many fair-haired old statues demonstrate their presence formerly in considerable numbers. Thus far, we have been discussing the changes of climate, and have overlooked the fact that

Starting point is 12:23:42 even though the climate remains constant, man's cultural progress may alter the location of the most favorable climate, and hence of the centres of civilization. This depends upon the fact that the climate of which is most most powerful climate of the climate of which is most favorable to a race in a primitive stage development is not the most favorable for the same race in a higher state of culture. Gilfillion in an article on the Coldwood course of progress has presented an interesting study in the way in which man's cultural heritage in the form of a constantly growing command over nature has enabled mankind to advance farther and fire into regions of low winter temperature. In a serviced state without fire, clothing or shelter other than caves, man is not likely to thrive where the winter temperature remains

Starting point is 12:24:29 for any length of time as low as freezing, and his main development is almost sure to be where the coldest months are not much below the physical optimum of 64 degrees or 65 degrees Fahrenheit. With each step of progress, he is able to endure greater extremes of climate. The open fire, the great, the stove, the first of the first, and the central heating plant are all steps towards a condition where man is able to resist the cold no matter how severe it may be. The use of the skins of animals for clothing, the invention of the arts of spinning and weaving, the domestication of the sheep, goat and camel, the cultivation of flax, and especially cotton,

Starting point is 12:25:09 the invention of power looms and of the steam engine. All these are important steps which have tended to make man independent of climate. So too are the inventions which are to make man independent of climate. So too are the inventions which enabled mankind to close the mouths of the caves in which he lived, and then to build huts, thatch them, cover them with close fitting shingles, construct them with thick bricks, otherwise make them warm and weatherproof. In like manner, man's power to resist unfavorable climates has been increased by every invention that has made it possible to transport food cheaply and quickly, and to preserve it for long periods. Today it is not difficult for large communities to live in health and comfort in the cold parts of the earth where their naked ancestors would have perished in a few days. Human energy may perhaps ultimately rise higher in those regions than in others,

Starting point is 12:25:58 for many of the diseases of warmer regions do not flourish there, and the constant changes from the warmth, within doors, to the cold without, seems to be highly stimulating and healthful, provided they are properly guarded against. Moreover, in cold regions, man can be free from the effects of undue heat against which he has thus far shown little ability to protect himself. Thus it appears that even without changes of climate, the higher civilization would have tended gradually to migrate farther and farther north.

Starting point is 12:26:30 How far this Tennessee will go is not yet clear, but the far northern location of such progressive people as the Scotch, Canadians, Swedes, Norwegians, Icelanders and Finns seems to suggest that the limit has not yet been reached. One of the phases of Gil Philan's work deserves careful notice. It points out that when civilization takes a backward step, it also tends to move Equator word. For instance, about 200 years before Christ,

Starting point is 12:26:59 the leadership of the world had passed from Greece, while Rome was falling into a state of confusion and retrogression for which its recovery was never complete, even in the days of Augustus. At that time, the intellectuals, leadership went back toward the south, and the Alexandrians held aloft the torch of learning. They did not, to be sure, make any great intellectual or material innovations, but they at least kept the spirit of progress alive. In the same way, in the Daric Ages, the intellectual

Starting point is 12:27:29 leadership of the world went back to North Africa, where live such men as St. Augustine and his confereers. Gilfieland suggests an interesting explanation of what happens when the most progressive nations of any given period are suddenly thrown backward by barbarian invasions, climatic changes or similar occurrences. And such times, regions which have formerly ranked high stand out once more as leaders. When the cooler countries fall to a lower state, the eclipsed warmer countries come into prominence. They still represent the highest type of civilization that is compatible with their climate, even though they have not been able to make that type appear great or important

Starting point is 12:28:12 because the cooler or more energetic countries have not given them a chance. Thus in the Alexandrian period, when Greece had fallen and even Rome was at a low ebb, northern Egypt took the lead because the stage of progress to which the world had regressed was suited to Egypt's climate. How true this hypothesis may be, it is hard to say. The migration of the more competent Greeks to Egypt may explain the Alexandrian period. Greece was becoming uninhabitable and poverty-stricken by reason of an adverse climatic change. But Egypt with his perennial river was still prosperous and attractive.

Starting point is 12:28:47 Nevertheless, there seems to be much truth in the idea that man's social progress constantly alters his relation to climate. In the past, great inventions have helped chiefly in enabling man to overcome low temperature. In the future, perhaps, they will help him in equal measure to overcome high temperature, dryness, and monotony. The last matter to engage our attention is the effect of changes in storminess. In reading what has been said about Egypt, for example, the reader has probably said to himself, this book claims that the people there were once energetic and healthy because of frequent storms. If this is so, the rainfall must have been much more abundant than now.

Starting point is 12:29:29 For the sake of argument, we grant that at certain periods the precipitation was greater than at present, but we cannot possibly believe that it increased to the extent. demanded by this hypothesis. This objection is so important that I have made a special investigation to determine the exact relation between storminess and rainfall. The word storm, as already explained, does not primarily mean rain. To the meteorologists, a storm is an area of low barometric pressure, which is always accompanied by inblowing winds, and usually, but not invariably, by rain. Even if there is not a drop of rain, a storm may otherwise be fully developed and may cause strong winds which give rise to changes of temperature and humidity.

Starting point is 12:30:14 The matter is well illustrated by comparing Colorado and Georgia. According to Kulmer's maps, Colorado is one of the stormy parts of the United States. It is crossed by the centers of about three times as many storms as Georgia, yet its rainfall is only about one third is great. In other words, Georgia has nine times as much rain in proportion to its storms. The reason is Isn't as simple, Colorado lies far from the ocean, and the air which rises in the centers of its areas of low pressure has already lost most of its moisture. Georgia, on the other hand, lies so near the broad Atlantic at the warm Gulf of Mexico, as storms draw in great quantities of moisture.

Starting point is 12:30:57 The lands around the eastern Mediterranean and in Western Asia have a climate far more like that of Colorado than of Georgia. Part to be sure under the Mediterranean Sea, but that furnishes a very much of the Mediterranean Sea, but that furnishes only little water compared with the great oceans. Another comparison shows that in the entire United States, if the number of storms increases 20% during a given series of years, the rainfall increases scarcely 10%. In the arid southwest, however, the ratio is larger.

Starting point is 12:31:25 The increase in storminess for all available stations being three times as great as the increase in rainfall. These figures apply to present conditions, where the variations of slight and of short duration. If larger and more permanent changes took place, the rapidity of the atmospheric circulation would probably be so much increased that the ratio between increases in storminess and in rainfall will be greater than at present, and might be four, or even six to one. The dry of the region, the greater would probably be the ratio. Suppose that the ratio were four to one in Syria, a change which would increase the storminess

Starting point is 12:32:05 by 200% would involve a change of rainfall amounted to 50%. That is, the number of stimulating changes would be three times as great as now, while the rainfall would only increase by one half. Such a change would render the Phoenician coast much more stimulating than at present. It would also increase the agricultural wealth and would cause the limits of permanent habitation to advance some miles into the desert. There the stimulating influence might be less than on the coast. the storms might be somewhat interrupted by crossing the mountains. Nevertheless, it would

Starting point is 12:32:39 be important. The effect of increased storminess upon habitability, however, would be much less noticeable than upon energy, or then in better watered regions. An increase of 50% in rainfall of 20 inches, such as is now enjoyed by many parts of Syria, would raise the precipitation to 30 inches, a figure which permits great prosperity. A corresponding change in Egypt would increase the rainfall of Alexandria from 8.8 inches to 13.2, that are put said from 3.3 to 5, and that of Cairo from 1.3 to 2. Further eastern Mesopotamia, Baghdad would change from 9 to 13.5, while in Persia, Tehran, would rise from 10 to 15, and Ispahan from 5.2 to 7.8.

Starting point is 12:33:32 Deserts would still be deserts. They would be easier to cross than at present, and the number of inhabitants might be greater, for there would be more pasturage for camels and sheep. The springs would also be larger and more permanent than now, and some new ones would appear. Yet the predominant feature would still be great wastes of blowing sand and barren gravel. The people would have to be nomads, and those who entered the desert would frequently account rigorous like those of today. Thus a large change in the stimulating qualities of a sub-adrid or desert climate is possible without a change of rainfall, greater than that for which there seems to be good evidence. Consider more specifically exactly what happens when storminess increases in regions such as Western Asia and Central California.

Starting point is 12:34:25 The general conditions at the time, when Greece was in its prime, for example, appear to have been approximately as follows. 1. The average temperature for the year as a whole was probably a little lower than at present, but it is doubtful whether the difference amounted to more than 2 or 3 degrees at most. 2. The temperature of the seasons may have varied somewhat more than that of the year as a whole. The greater mixing of the air from wide areas by mains of the winds that accompanied storms presumably lowered the summer temperature a little over the lands and raised the winter temperature. 3. The amount of rain was apparently considerably greater than now. Doubtless the rain then, as now came chiefly in winter, while the summers were very dry, just as at present.

Starting point is 12:35:14 But the length of the rainy season appears to have been increased. That is, the rains began earlier in the autumn, and lasted longer in the spring than at present. 4. The amount of atmospheric moisture of the lands was presumably greater than now. This would arise partially, from the increased cloudiness and rainfall and partially from the fact that the winds were presumably more effacious in bringing moisture from their neighbouring seas. 5. The winds were apparently stronger that at present and varied in direction much more than now because of the frequent storms. 6. The greatest storminess and the more frequent changes in the winds, as well as their greatest strength, must have caused great or at least frequent variability of temperature as well as variations in other respects. Such for reliability would occur even in summer when the storms passed to the north of the lands that were more progressive two or three thousand years ago. It would still be more pronounced in the rainy season. Let us apply these generalizations to a specific

Starting point is 12:36:18 case. Suppose that from 500 to 400 BC, the climate of Athens differed from that of the present in the following respects. 1. Temperature of July, 77 degrees Fahrenheit instead of 81 degrees Fahrenheit. January, 48 degrees instead of 46 degrees. Main temperature at the year, 62 degrees instead of 63.1 degrees. 2. Relative humidity at all seasons, 10% higher than now. January, the moistest month, 84% instead of 74%.

Starting point is 12:36:54 July the driest month, 58% instead of 48%. As a matter of fact, the change was properly not the same at all seasons, but I wish to keep our example symbol. 3. Annual rainfall, 22 inches instead of 15, ranging perhaps from 3.3 inches in November to 1.0 in July instead of 2.9 in November and 0.03 in July. 4. Number of storms twice as great as now. Such a change seems conservative. It is scarcely more than the normal variation from one year to another. Nevertheless, when we calculate its effect upon health in the same way that we have calculated the data for our map of climatic energy based on the effect of the seasons

Starting point is 12:37:39 in American cities, figure 36, the result is astonishing. From a climatic level only equal to that of Augusta in Georgia and Vicksburg in Mississippi, Athens rises to a level practically the same as that of New York and Chicago. The best regions in North America aside from the coast near Newport. A slight farther increase in storminess, or a farther lowering of the summer temperature 2 or 3 degrees, more would make Athens rival Paris in Berlin.

Starting point is 12:38:12 And if the storminess there should be three times as much as at present, which would be a small matter compared to with the differences between one year and another places like San Francisco, the healthiness and stimulating qualities of the climate of Athens would rival those of southeastern England. which seems to be well-nigh the most favourite place in the whole world. When we recall that according to Vicar 41, the estimated death rate in Greece is nearly twice that of England.

Starting point is 12:38:41 The significance of such a change is apparent. It would presumably get rid of malaria to a large extent. It would stimulate the Greeks to a degree of persistent activity quite foreign to the country at present. It would raise the economic level and correspondingly improved the diet of the people, and would give to the Greeks a spirit of enterprise, a physical vigour and to mental activity, which would probably soon enable them to take advantage of all sorts of modern discoveries, which they now use half-heartedly and ineffectively if at all. The slightness of the climatic change necessary to produce important results

Starting point is 12:39:17 seems to give to the conclusions set forth from the present edition of this book a reliability much greater than was possible in the first edition, before the health of American and European cities have been studied in its relation to the weather. As we come to the end of this volume, I am well aware that to those who accept the climatic hypothesis, it may seem depressing. To the dweller in the less favoured parts of the world, it may appear to sound the knell to his hopes for great progress in the land that he loves. To his brother in the centre of modern activity, a most disquieting vision of possible retrogression is disclosed. If our reasoning is correct, man is far more limited than he has realized.

Starting point is 12:40:01 He has boasted that he is a lord of creation. He has reveled in the thought that he alone among created beings can dwell in the uttermost bounds of the earth. One more to the ballwalks of this old belief is now assailed. Man can apparently live in a region where he can obtain food, but his physical and mental energy and his moral character reached their highest development, only in a few strictly limited areas. The location of those areas appears to vary greatly in the past. It may vary greatly in the future.

Starting point is 12:40:34 In a thousand years, for all that we can tell, so the profit of evil will say, no highly favorable region may exist upon the globe, and the human race may be thrown back into the dull, lethargic state of our own present tropical races. Even without so dire calamity, the location of the regions of greatest climatic, energy may in a few hundred years change again to Egypt, Mesopotamia and Guatemala.

Starting point is 12:41:00 The consequent rise of new powers and the decline of those now dominant may throw the world into a chaos far worse than that at the Dark Ages. Races of low mental calibre may be stimulated to most pernicious activity, or those of high capacity may not have energy to withstand their more barbarous neighbours. Even if such extreme disasters should not occur, that prospect is depressing. Take such a favourite country as United States, in the south we find less energy, less vitality, less education,

Starting point is 12:41:34 and fewer men who rise to eminence than in the north. Not because southerners are in any way in Italy inferior to northerners, but apparently because of the adverse climate. In the far west, people seem to be stimulated to such a degree that nervous exhaustion threatens them. In the north, we see still another handy

Starting point is 12:41:53 cap, in spite of a wonderfully stimulating climate most of the year, the people suffer sudden checks because of the extremes of temperature. These conditions favour nervousness, and worst of all, they frequently stimulate harmful activities. That perhaps is why American children are so rude and boisterous, or why is so staid a city as Boston has six times as many murders as London in proportion to the population. Our country takes immigrants of every mental calibre, and then stimulates some of the noble deeds and others to commit murder.

Starting point is 12:42:28 Break down the respect for law and give us city governments that shame us in the eyes of the world. All these things would apparently not happen to such an extent where our climate-less pricing added not as extremes often weaken the power of self-control. Other lands also have their tollbacks. is much like the eastern United States, although not so extreme. France, the other hand, is less stimulating. England suffers from too great cloudiness, and in Ireland.

Starting point is 12:42:59 This becomes a factor of serious import. If the best parts of the Earth have such climatic disadvantages, what shall we say of Russia? Waded down with, be numbing cold and comparative monotony, or with changes so extreme that they are harmful. What of China, under a much heavier handicap of monotony? or a tropical lands burned most heavily of all. If climatic conditions influence character, as we have inferred,

Starting point is 12:43:26 does not our hypothesis we command small responsibility? Will not people more than ever ascribe their failings to nature and so excuse themselves? In the favoured regions, will not men become increasingly arrogant and overbearing, because they will be surer than ever than the rest of the world cannot resist them? If all these sad results are possible, is it well to know that climate so strongly influences us? We cannot change the climate, so I ascribe it to such great effects merely to destroy hope in some of the moral responsibility in others. The answer to these questions may be put in the form of a parable. Ages ago, abandoned naked, houseless, fireless savages started from their warm home in the torrid zone

Starting point is 12:44:13 and pushed steadily northward from the beginning of spring to the end of summer. They never guessed that they had left the land of constant warmth until a September. They began to feel an uncomfortable chill at night. Day by day it grew worse. Not knowing as cause, they travelled this way without to escape. Some went southward, but only a hand will finally return to their former home. There they resumed the old life, and their descendants are untutored savages to this day. of those who wandered in other directions, all perished except one small band.

Starting point is 12:44:47 Funny that they could not escape the nipping air, the members of this band used the loftiest of human faculties, the power of conscious invention. Some tried to find sheltered by digging in the ground, some gathered branches and leaves to make huts and warm beds, and some wrapped themselves in the skin of the beasts that they had slain. Soon these soldiers had taken some of the greatest steps towards civilization. The naked with clothes, the houseless sheltered, The improvident learned to dry meat and store it with nuts for the winter. Or at last the art of making fire was discovered as a means of keeping warm. Thus they subsisted, where at first they thought that they were doomed,

Starting point is 12:45:28 and in the process of adjusting themselves to a hard environment that advanced by enormous strides, leaving the tropical part of mankind far in the rear. Today, mankind resembles these savages in certain respects. We know that we are limited by climate. As the savages faced the winter, so we are face to face with the fact that the human race has tried to conquer the Arctic zone, the deserts and the torrid zone, as met with only the most limited success. Even in the temperate zone, he has made a partial failure, for he is still hampered in hundreds of ways. Hitherto we have attributed our failure to economic conditions

Starting point is 12:46:07 to isolation and remoteness, to racial incapacity or to specific diseases. Now we see that it is probably due in part to lack of energy or to other unfathable effects produced directly upon the human system by climate. There is no reason for despair. We ought rather to rejoice because perhaps we may correct some of the evils which hitherow have baffled us. Again and again in our discussion of factories and other matters, we have come upon ways in which a change in our methods may do much to overcome the harmful effects of climate.

Starting point is 12:46:41 I do not propose to enumerate them, for the specific application of our results may well be deferred until we know whether our main hypothesis is likely to stand. Yet one or two general lines of progress may properly be pointed out. Take the harmful winters of the Northern United States. It is highly probable that the loss of energy which occurs at that time may be largely avoided, or at least greatly diminished. Much of it arises from the fact that after the wonderfully stimulating autumn weather, when we have been living under almost ideal conditions of main temperature, of humidity, and a variability from day to day, we suddenly begin to heat our houses. We create an indoor climate of great uniformity of unduly high main temperature, and of the most extreme aridity.

Starting point is 12:47:28 All these conditions are harmful. If our house were kept at lower temperatures, if the temperature were varied from day to day, and if the humidity were kept at the optimum, we should increase our efficiency greatly. We should be comfortable also, for with proper humidity and with changes from day to day, we should not feel the need at the high temperatures which we now require because the extreme dryness forces the body to give up much more heat than will be demanded by air of greater humidity. Moreover, the uniform dryness within doors does almost untold harm in parching the mucous membranes and thus rendering us peculiarly liable to colds, grape and similar ailments, which often leads to serious diseases such as pneumonia and tuberculosis.

Starting point is 12:48:15 Of course, we could not entirely avoid colds by the method here suggested, but we surely could diminish them. In the autumn before our houses are heated, coals are comparatively rare, and the same as same as the same thing. true among people who live out of doors in winter. If the conditions inside our houses could be like those that prevail in the autumn, their general health of the community would probably be much improved. In this one way, there might be a saving not only of millions of dollars worth of valuable time, but of an immense amount of nervous energy which is wasted because persons who are irritated by colds do or say things that they would scorn under normal conditions.

Starting point is 12:48:54 Along still other lines, great improvements might be possible. For instance, in many factories the same amount of work is expected each month. Hence in certain seasons, many operatives, especially girls, work harder than they ought, while others, they do not work so hard, as they are easily called without special effort. If factories will run in accordance with a well-established seasonal curve of energy, we should find the machinery running slowly in winter, faster in the spring, and in May perhaps 10 or 15% faster than January. Then in the summer it would run more slowly than in May, but not so slowly as in winter.

Starting point is 12:49:33 Finally, in the autumn, it would run at greater speed than at any other time of the year. The operators would scarcely be conscious of the difference, and they would probably do more work and preserve their health better than under the present system. If our hypothesis is true, it is likely to prove helpful not only to places where the climatic disadvantages are slight, but where they are great. Consider regions which have winter of great severity, but an invigorating summer. Contrass them with places where the summer is too hot, but the winter favourable. Russia and Mesopotamia may serve as examples. Today we already have a small number of people who move back and forth each year between places of this sort. For instance, northern Germany and the Riviera, New England and Florida.

Starting point is 12:50:21 Unfortunately, those who do this are usually not the workers, but the eyelowers. or those his work is almost finished. In the future, however, if the principles here lay down fine acceptance, we may expect that such interchanges will take place on a scale to stagger the imagination. Not only at the leisure classes, but labourers and farmers may thus move back and forth. In winter, most of Russia's peasants have little to do, and their enforced idleness is harmful. They might go to Mesopotamia where most of the farm work is done between October and May, If people could move thus from place to place, not only would there be an enormous increase in production, but many other benefits.

Starting point is 12:51:03 The part of the population that moved would be stimulated, not only by the change of climate, but by contact with other races and new methods. They would be more tolerant, more progressive, and more eager for education. Both countries would benefit by such an interchange of workers and much of the handicap of places like Russia might possibly be overcome. Perhaps the day will come when only the poorest families will stay in an unfavourable climate more than a few years at a time without going at least for a season to some place where they will receive new stimulus. In tropical countries, the chances for improvement are at a maximum. Already most Europeans and a few natives appreciate the necessity for a spending part of the year among the mountains or in a climate different from that where they usually live.

Starting point is 12:51:52 For the most part, the lowlanders go to the highlands. but in lofty plateaus like Mexico it is not uncommon for foreigners to take a run down to the coast for a change of air. Of course altitude has much to do with this, but even though Vera Cruz has a bad climate for permanent residence, it is stimulating for a short while

Starting point is 12:52:12 when one comes from a wholly different environment. In the future we can scarcely doubt that this method of overcoming the evil effects of tropical climate will be resulted to on a vast scale, not only by foreigners, but by the more intelligent portion of the natives. In the warmer parts of the earth, there is another side to the question. Mankind needs not only seasonal changes, but variations from day to day, or week to week.

Starting point is 12:52:42 Two methods of retaining these suggest themselves. One is by cooling the interiors of houses. Today this is done on a small scale by shutting out the sun and sprinkling water to cause of evoration. There is no reason why the same result should not be produced on a large scale. We already know how to cool houses as well as to heat them. We do it in ice plants. A thousand years ago, men would have laughed at the idea that hundreds of rooms would someday be heated by a single fire, yet we see it in every office building or hotel.

Starting point is 12:53:17 In equatorial regions, there is as much reason for equipping the houses with coolers as there is in temperate regions for equipping them with heaters. In both cases, uniformity of temperature is apparently a mistake, for moderate changes from day to day appear to be favourable. Even though a man's work may be done out of doors, it seems probable that he would be much stimulated and much better enabled to work hard in the heat if he could sleep in a comparatively cool house.

Starting point is 12:53:45 If he lives where the climate is too damp, he would be benefited by having the house relatively dry, just as the northerner, in winter apparently ought to have his house more moist than is now his habit. Both need to enjoy the optimum conditions. A second method of obtaining frequent changes may possibly prove of much importance. Today the sea coast in many regions, for example on the Atlantic shore of America from New York to Boston, is bordered by an almost continuous line of houses. At first people went to these only in the summer.

Starting point is 12:54:19 Now many go for weekends and almost all seasons. 50 years ago, such a thing was almost unknown. 50 years hence, it will probably be many times more prevalent than now. In tropical countries, millions of people may not only move to other climates during part of each year, but many may move back and forth from the lowlands to the highlands every few days. Their work may be arraigned so that almost every family can spend weekends in the highlands and the rest of the time in the lowlands. In Soudinia, in order to escape the malaria of summer,

Starting point is 12:54:55 many villages are today completely duplicated in the lowlands and highlands. Churches, houses, shops, everything in duplicate. Moreover, aside from farming, mining, lumbering and the like, most of the other kinds of work can be located where the climatic conditions are best, a matter which is becoming increasingly easy as a facilities for communicating and proof. Yet if these are to be within the tropics, the people engaged in them must have an opportunity to obtain the stimulus of changes. Perhaps they will frequently go from their places of work in the highlands to the neighbouring lowlands or in the high mountains. The expense of such a system

Starting point is 12:55:33 of having two homes for a large part of the population would doubt must be enormous, but that is relatively unimportant. If the farmers of the tropics were as efficient as those of the temperate zone, one man's labour would produce two or three times. as much as in Europe or the United States. If white men can devise means whereby they can live in the torrid zone and retain approximately the energy which they possess in their own countries, or if they can largely increase the efficiency of their natives, they can afford to spend enormous sums in creating favorable conditions.

Starting point is 12:56:06 How we shall go to work in detail cannot yet be determined, but that will easily be discovered. For the president is enough to see that the hypothesis of climate. as a condition of civilization is far from depressing. It holds out hope that it happens of even the most favorite parts of the temperate zone may improve their condition. It holds out still more hope that the people of the less favored parts of that zone and of the subtropical zone may be benefited. And it holds out far the greatest hope to those who dwell in the tropical regions,

Starting point is 12:56:39 which now are the most hopeless. If our hypothesis is true, men is more closely dependent upon nature than he has realized. A realization of his limitations, however, is a first step toward freedom. In suggesting possible ways of attaining a newest sentency over climatic handicaps, we have dealt largely with material matters. Bound up with these, and far more important, are great moral issues. We are slowly realizing that character, in the broad sense of all that pertains to industry, honesty, purity, intelligence, and strength of will is closely dependent upon the conditions of the body. Each influences the other. Neither can be at its best while its companion is dragged down.

Starting point is 12:57:23 The climate of many countries seems to be one of the great reasons why idleness, dishonesty, immorality, stupidity, a weakness of will prevail. If we can conquer climate, the whole world will become stronger and nobler. End of Section 18 and the end of civilization and climate by Ellsworth Huntington.

Classic Audiobook Collection - Civilization and Climate by Ellsworth Huntington ~ Full Audiobook [history]

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