Classic Audiobook Collection - World-Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington ~ Full Audiobook [history]

Episode Date: December 18, 2025

World-Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington audiobook. Genre: history In World-Power and Evolution (1919), Yale geographer Ellsworth Huntington widens his famous climate-and-civilization argument from the map to the timeline, asking a sweeping question: if environment helps shape where civilization flourishes, can shifting weather and climate also help explain when nations surge, stall, or decline? Writing in the shadow of World War I, Huntington blends climatology, public health, economics, and early evolutionary thought to trace how year-to-year variability in weather may influence human vitality, disease, and productivity, and how those human changes ripple outward into trade, social stability, and the capacities that underpin world power. Moving between broad theory and pointed case studies, he considers the role of variability itself, the conditions that may favor mental development, and the long arc by which environments select for different traits in animals and people. He then tests his framework against historical and contemporary examples, including Rome and modern European rivalries, building a provocative portrait of history as a contest shaped not only by leaders and ideas, but also by heat, cold, rain, and the rhythms of health. For ad-free listening try our premium subscription Chapters (Approximate) (00:00:00) Chapter 00 (00:05:05) Chapter 01 (00:25:49) Chapter 02 (00:56:20) Chapter 03 (01:11:17) Chapter 04 (01:24:47) Chapter 05 (01:53:14) Chapter 06 (02:24:49) Chapter 07 (03:00:48) Chapter 08 (03:46:40) Chapter 09 (04:17:57) Chapter 10 (05:02:38) Chapter 11 (05:44:22) Chapter 12 (06:21:52) Chapter 13 (06:53:28) Chapter 14 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

World Power on Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington, Research Associate in Geography at Yale University. Copyright 1919 by Yale University Press To R.B.H. Whose suggestions dot the pages of this book. Preface Every important aspect of human knowledge must be considered in its relation to both space and time. In civilization and climate, the problem of the effect of physical environment upon human, progress was discussed in its relation to space. It was shown that the distribution of civilization upon the Earth's surface is closely in harmony with the distribution of climatic energy,

which appears to be the most important factor in physical environment. In the present volume, the same problem is considered in its relation to time. Beginning with the present day, we find that from year to year business activities vary in extraordinary harmony with health. Further studies shows that the variations in health from you to year depend upon the weather far more than upon any other single factor. Turning to the distant past, we find, from the earliest geographical times, the evolution of man's ancestors, even before they had assumed the form of man, was largely guided by climatic environment.

This was especially true of mental evolution. Periods of climatic stress not merely weeded out old types, but apparently caused new types or mutants to arrive, so that new species and races came into a good. existence. In historical times, the same extraordinarily close relationship between the air that men breathe and the deeds they do is apparent. Rome finishes a striking example. Turkey is today one of the world's most puzzling problems partially because of the economic, physiological, and political conditions arising from the uninvigorating climate and the arid summers. Germany in like manner was able to defy the world largely because no other country

as so many people who live under a highly energizing climate and are also under a single government. Some leaders may feel that the importance of environment is exaggerated in this book. That will be largely because they do not attach as much weight, as does the author to the qualifying phrases which he has used. A few generations ago, the emphasis was all upon the various agencies which combined to furnish training. In a broad sense, these include the church, the home, the school, the state, and other institutions. Recently, a tremendous emphasis has just been given to another factor, namely heredity.

We are told that heredity plays nine parts in training, one, in determining what a man's character shall be. According to such an extreme view, physical environment is scarcely worthy of mention. Yet training, heredity, and physical environment are like food, drink, and air. one or other of these may be placed first according to the individual preferences, and one or another may demand more attention according to circumstances. It is idle, however, to say that one is any more important than the others. All are essential. Until the world learns this vital lesson, it will be necessary that some students should lay special stress upon hereditary, because its importance is not, as yet, so fully recognized as is that of trance. Other students may lay still greater stress upon the physical environment because its importance is less than appreciated.

When the world realizes that the human race must be bred as carefully as racehorses, and that even when people inherit perfect constitutions, their health must receive as much care as does that of consumptives. It will be time for a book in which training, hereditary, and environment receive exactly equal emphasis. Part of the material here used has already been published in the Journal of Race Development and in the quarterly Journal of Economics, but most is new. In writing this book many sources have been drawn upon, some of which are acknowledged in the list of references in the appendix. The author has also drawn on so many sources which cannot be thus acknowledged. He unblushingly confesses that when he hears or reads a good idea, he often assimilates it, and that that's also drawn on the sources which cannot be thus acknowledged. assimilates it, and that it gives it out as if it were his own, not knowing where or when it came to him.

So too the great host of persons who have unconsciously given him help, he offers his thanks, with a hope that they may not object to his use of their ideas. Washington, D.C. December in 1918. End of Preface. Section 1 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Librivox according. All Librivox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Librivox.org,

recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 1. The Chart of Evolution On a faithful day in August 1914, the ship of human progress crashed upon a rock. Though battered and broken by a terrific tempest, she still hangs together after four years of pounding on the reef of militarism. Clearly, at this time of crisis, it is well to re-examine the route by which

the world has come to this disaster. Has there been some wind, some current, some widespread, tenancy, or some unnoticed agency that has carried us out of our true course? Many students are already engaged in the study of this great problem. In the future it would occupy the attention of thousands of the world's best minds. One inquires studies the currents of philosophy. He judges that the teachers of Nietzsche, for example, were responsible for a swerve in German thought,

which changed the direction of progress and thus brought shipwreck. Another investigates the eddies of religion. He finds that lack of altruism in the great commercial centres and the setting up of a homemade god in Germany were a potent causes of the wrong course, which the whole world now deplores. Again, an historian concludes that the wind of junkerism and the militaristic spirit had been blowing more strongly

than people realized. Thus before mankind knew what was happening, the ship had run aground. Still another inquirer, impressed by the importance of trade and commerce, finds in them the deflecting force. The jealousy of England and Germany formed a perfect network of conflicting currents which drifted the ship first this way and then that. Where one student feels that the Baghdad railway was a dominating influence, another is sure

that the Serbian question was the unexpected event, which finally brought disaster up. A third believes that a more important influence was the wind of Pan-Slavism. which blew gently for many decades, and then came up as a sudden gust when Russia supported Serbia. Each of these students is right. If any one of the thousand conditions had been different, the war would never have happened in the way that the world now rused so keenly. Yet probably it would have happened in some other way. The course of evolution has brought the human race to a certain stage of development. In that stage, selfishness, short-sightedness, lust and jealousy is still dormanty.

a large part of mankind. Vast numbers of people are intellectually so weak or sluggish that they can easily be dominated by stronger wills, no matter whether those wills are right or wrong. Therefore strong nations are able to exploit their weaker neighbors. A ruling class is able to persuade their fellow countrymen that world power is the only alternative to downfall, and a group of selfish politicians is able to hoodwink this so-called land of freedom and wallowing graft to the neck. When the world is in such a stage, war, graft, labour troubles and a host of other ills are inevitable. We think that we have found pelletives and even cures, but the old ills keep breaking out in new places.

Something is radically wrong with the human race, and we must find out how to write it. The teachers of religion were the first to announce a cure for the fundamental ill, from which all other troubles take their rise. Ye must be born anew. That was the message of religion. But 3,000 years of Judaism, Buddhism, Muhammadism, and Christianity have not brought that new birth except to scattered individuals here and there.

Why? Because the message is wrong? No, because the teachers of religion have insisted that a spiritual birth was sufficient. Seeing this era, the educators took up the cry. Ye must be born anew, they shouted. But your minds as well as your souls must be reborn.

So education became the panacea. Education of rich and poor, brilliant and stupid, savage and Superman, but still the old evils persisted. Next, religion and education called in their little sister, philanthropy. She too insisted on the necessity of a new birth, but her method was different. She devoted herself to the poor and richard quite as much as did her elder sisters, but she began with the body, worked next on the mind, and believed that, when body and mind were right, the spirit would also be regenerated. Yet the old misery persists, and is perhaps today as great as ever.

Good government is another little sister who has vainly made the same attempt. She too has failed to prevent the world's worst war, the world's worst massacres, and the world's most awful collapse of civilization. Have religion, education, philanthropy, and government failed? Shall we despair because the church, the school, the charity organisation in the state, have not yet destroyed war, pestilence, lust, greed, cruelty, and selfishness? Far from it. These agencies cannot possibly play their proper parts unless science comes to their aid. Not mechanical science, although that has its useful part to play,

but biological science. The sum and substance of biology is evolution. The Darwinian idea that no type of living creature is permanent. With his splendid sweep of vision, Darwin saw that neither man nor any other creature is a finished product. Variations who could and natural selection by means that the environment ruthlessly exterminates some of them and preserves others to form new species. The variations are possibly sudden and marked rather than gradual and slight, as Darwin supposed, but that does not alter the main idea. Darwinism, as we here use the term, means biological evolution, and evolution means constant change in species and in races. The idea is still so new that we have not yet learned to apply it to any other wide scale.

scale. We are indeed applying it to plants and animals, and hence are improving them immensely. We are also beginning to apply it to the study of disease, and are thereby working wonders. Yet thus far we have scarcely begun to apply the principles of Darwinism to the great problems involved in the evolution of races, nations and ideals. It has taken millions of years to evolve the human race. The impress of those millions of years is engraved upon everything that we do. Perhaps the greatest mistake of the thinkers of the past has been the idea that religion, education, philanthropy, good government, or any other products of the last few thousand years can eradicate or even neutralize tendencies which are the product of a hundred

million years of evolution. The only way to eradicate them is to change the course of evolution. Such a procedure takes time, but it can be done. Nature is done it again and again in the past. We've been doing it unconsciously for several thousand years. The case of mankind is like that of a ship that has been drifting with the current, but which now finds at its helm an ignorant child who twists rudder according to his whims. He steers his ship into slavery, monasticism, commerce, manufacturing, warfare, nationalism, a sedentary life, the use of machines, and a host of other habits, totally different from the conditions under which most of man's evolution took place.

The human animal now rise instead of walks, lives in stuffy houses instead of out of doors, wearing in caves, wears clothes instead of exposing his body to the weather and eats soft-cooked, concentrated food, instead of that which is raw, tough and bulky. He preserves a stick and weakly instead of letting them die. He permits an economic and social system which causes the people with greatest mental power to have the fewest children, while the stupid breed-like rabbits. and he moves recklessly from one kind of environment to another without regard to the possible effects. In addition to all this, modern civilisation imposes upon mankind a tremendous burden of mental and moral responsibility. We expect the ordinary farmer or labour to restrain his passions, to abide by a multitude of laws and customs which he has no voice in framing, to feel a sense of responsibility for affairs of state which neither he nor the profoundest scholars can,

really understand. More than this, we demand that such a man, framed of ordinary clay, shall write the wrongs of nations thousands of miles away, shall give obvious substance for starving millions in Turkey or China, and in a hundred ways shall act as if he were more than human. Thus we have built up a wonderful fabric of civilization, and at the same time have actually weakened the human race by diminishing its vitality and hence its willpower. We have also listened to its adaptation to its environment. Our foolish hands have turned the rudder in such a way as to check the reproduction of the bravest warriors, the people of deepest religious zeal, the men and women of highest self-control,

and those with the greatest power to think and act. Today, as Conklin well puts it, social redity has outrun German or heredity. In other words, we have woven a complex fabric which makes the most strenuous demands upon human character, but we have weakened the fibre by interfering with the course of evolution and by subjecting the human race to new and unfavourable conditions. Thus when some great crisis comes, the social fabric is suddenly rent, as it was in the Great War, and we see man in all his nakedness. We realise that in many ways he is still a weak-willed brute. When it comes to the problem of strengthening the social fabric, all the many methods may be grouped under three great heads. First, we may improve our systems of religion, education, philanthropy and government.

Work along such lines may all be summed up under the general heading of training. No one will question that our efforts to train the next generation in the right way must be redoubled. Second, we must give tenfold or a hundredfold great weight to the great social problem of eugenics. Our country's children must have a good inheritance. The best inheritance and the finest training, however, are not a good. enough. Between the two stands health. How many human ills arise because well-trained people whether good inheritance failed to do their part through ill health or nervousness. Think of the business failures, the labour troubles, the bitter heart-burnings, and are lapsed

to sin which occur because people's nerves are unstrung. Surprising as it may seem, we shall find that financial depression in the United States is apparently a regular consequence of widespread ill health. A lamentable and most ominous failure of the most competent parts of the community to reproduce themselves and maintain their proportion among the general population is due in part at least to the weak and physique which results from a life of ease and luxury especially among women in a thousand other ways health is equally vital to the general welfare watch the labourers loafing on their job in the street if those men had been born with the minds and bodies

that they ought to have and if they were blessed with the perfect health that they ought to enjoy would they be content with such dilatory work even though they are employed by the city? Would you, with your quick mind, if you were in perfect health, be willing to work so slowly? Consider for a moment the actual figures as to health in the United States. In his book on The Hygiene of the School Child, Termin says that of the 20 million children enrolled in the schools of the United States, about 14 million are handicapped by some kind of physical defect. Not far from 2 million are suffering from a grave form malnutrition.

10 million have enough defective teeth to interfere seriously with health. At least 2 million suffer from obstructed breathing due to adenoids or enlarged tonsils. Probably 2 million have enlarged cervical glands which need attention. Many of these been tuberculosis. At least 10 million are, or have been infected with tuberculosis, of whom about 2 million will let us succumb to the disease. 4 million have defective vision, over 1 million have defective hearing. About 1 million have spinal curvature or some other deformity,

likely to interfere with health. Not far from 500,000 have organic heart trouble, and at least one million are predisposed to some form of serious nervous disorder. We are up to say that the figures just given are not so bad as they seem, for they include many minor elements. True but great oaks form little acorns grow. What did our draft show during the Great War? Only preliminary figures are yet available, judging by 9,256 men who were examined at eight camps, However, men were rejected for defects and diseases in the following ratios per 1,000 men. A, defects of eyes, 80. Defects of teeth, 31. Defect of ears, 22, total 133. B, physical underdevelopment, 15, flat foot, 14, underweight 6, total 35.

C, venerial disease, 16, alcoholism and drugs, 3, total 19. D. Mentally deficient, 17. Nervous Disorders, 14. Total 31. E. Diseases of the joints. 12. Diseases of the bones. 11. Disease of the skin. 4. Diseases of the muscles, 2. Total 29. F. Diseases of the heart, 22. Diseases of the blood vessels, 7. Total 29. G. Hernia. 28. Diseases of the genitue. Unitary organs. Non-vinereal. 5. Diseases of the digestive system, 3. Turtle 36. H. tuberculosis, 20. Respiratory diseases, 6. Total 26. Grand total 338. Even if we admit that most of those in groups A and B are not seriously incapacitated for the work of life,

there remain 165 at every thousand who have some grave physical or mental defect. This means that in the very prime of life, one and every six of the young men in the United States is terribly handicapped, and is thus handicapping his home and his country. Other countries are almost equally afflicted. In Germany, before the Great War, over 20% of the school children were anemic, in part from malnutrition and in part from other disorders. In England, conditions are not much better. In Italy, they are worse.

It is impossible to obtain exact figures, but ordinary observation. is enough to indicate that in countries like Turkey, Persia and China, a large part of the children are anemic. Even in our own country, the proportion rises as high as 50 or 60% in parts of the southern states. Taken as a whole, the situation is exceedingly grave. Its seriousness gives good ground for the suspicion that a large share of the moral, social and political evil in the world has its root in unfavorable conditions of health. On the side of religion, education, philanthropy and government, that is, in the world, it is, those conditions which depend primarily upon training, the advanced nations of the world have

not failed so badly as many people suppose. There have indeed been sad failures, but have not these generally been due to the poor quality of the material that has been trained? That is what we most need at present, better human material. In the course of many generations, the eugenists will greatly improve the regulatory quality of the material, but meanwhile proper attention to health will do wonders. In this book we do not propose to study health from the standpoint of the physician. Instead, we shall view it from the standpoint of the geographer and evolutionist.

First we shall examine the astonishing relationship between health and business in the United States. We shall see that conditions of health not only cause great differences in man's activity from region to region, but from decade to decade. Incredible as it may seem, health seems to play a predominating part in the ebb and flow of the stock market, in the rise and full of prices, and in the fluctuations of prosperity and of immigration. A realization of this will lead us to inquire minutely into the causes of fluctuations in health

from year to year and from day to day. We shall discover that far and away the most important cause of fluctuation is variations in temperature and in other climatic elements. Then we shall take a backward look into geological times to see how man acquired his wonderfully delicate adjustment to a climate. That will lead us to the most far-reaching of all our conclusions, namely that brief extremes of weather are among the most potent causes of biological mutations and thus may lead to the origin of new species.

Coming down to historic times, we shall study Rome as an example of the effect of health upon the greatest of ancient empires. Next Turkey will occupy our attention as a modern example of the way in which unfavourable conditions of health retard a nation and cause untold trouble to the rest of the world. world. Finally, the dilemma of Germany will make clear the way in which mere strength of body and mind, without the safeguards that come from the right kind of training, may turn the world upside down. Germany furnishes an example of nervous energy like that which is both the pride and the danger of the United States. It also furnishes an example of the aggressiveness which caused Rome to a world so

wide an empire. Both the nervousness and the aggressiveness appear to be largely matters of climate. not only in Germany but in the United States and Rome. A nation with the German inheritance, the German climate and the German geographical position is bound to expand. We shall find that the part played by the country and also by all the other belligerents in the Great War corresponds closely to what we should expect from the health and climate on the basis of our previous studies. We shall also find that the expansion of the great nations or the world is to a large extent determined by climatic conditions. We talk indeed about trade, but back of trade, as we shall see in our study of the United States, lies the question of health.

Health, however, depends chiefly upon air, food and water, and all three of these depend upon climate. Every nation that has been stimulated by an interdressing climate has apparently spread its power over neighbouring regions either by land or by sea. Germany cannot be an exception. Unless we destroy her, she is bound to act in accordance with the biological principles which have guided the action of every race upon the face of the earth. We do not propose to destroy her, even if we were able. What we do propose is somehow to defeat her and shame her until she recognises

that the only salvation both for herself and the world lies in allowing her biological propensities to be directed by higher motives. That's the day the world's greatest problem. It is our problem quite as much as Germany's. Our strength is due largely to the fact that both we and our remote ancestors have dwelt in environment favourable to mental activity. In the future the struggle between nations will inevitably continue, but will change its form. As war becomes rarer, as commerce becomes more thoroughly international, the great contest of

the nations will be to see which can produce the type of people that is stronger not only physically or even mentally, but also morally. The science of health must see that the bodily strength and mental activity that belong to a good inheritance do not degenerate because of unfavorable surroundings. Darwin declared that the trouble with mankind is not so much lack of inheritability, as lack of zeal and energy to make the best use of the powers that we actually possess. We have the talents, but they are buried in a napkin. The way to bring them out into the light, where they can be used to give to each individual, however humble,

the most stimulating environment and the most perfect health. Then all our activities will assume far higher forms than is now possible, for they will have far better material upon which to work. In a single book, it is impossible to discuss all the winds and currents which bear the ship of human progress to the great goal. Therefore, while remembering that many other factors are at work, we shall confine ourselves to the relation between business and health, and between health and climate, as illustrated both at present and the course of evolution and history. End of Section 1.

Section 2 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Librivox according, all Libbyovox according in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Libravox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 2. Health and Business Everyone knows how business is subject to a constant ebb and flow. This year there is a boom. Everyone expects to make money. Creditors expand.

Factories work full-time. Wages rise. New railroads are built. Ocean freight rates increase. prices show in upward tenancy and all but the more thoughtful and the dyspeptic are full of overflowing optimism. A few years later, despondency is the rule. Credit is so shortened that even well-established firms are hard-pinched. Factories work on part-time, men walk in the streets in search for employment, and their families starve even though prices have dropped. Such economic cycles occur in all countries, but most of all, in America. Why should there be such a constant ebb and flow?

A recent writer estimates that there have been 230 distinct answers to this question. Some are fantastic, but the great majority contains some truth. All can be grouped under three heads, economic, political and psychological. Which group is more important? Let us look briefly at each and then turn to health, which we may call number 231. We shall find that occupies a surprisingly high place. The economic causes of business cycles include crops, which are the most important, and most variable of all man's material resources.

How often the financial page of the newspaper contains articles on the crops. No wide-awake businessman feels that he can safely estimate next winter's business unless he takes some account of the probable buying power of the farmers. When crops are good, the farmers may have a billion dollars more to spend in the use of scarcity. Perhaps they will use those dollars for automobiles, new carpets, new pianos, or to send the boys and girls to college. Or possibly they will pay old debts, clear off mortgages and fix up the old barns. In any case, more than the usual amount of money is thrown into circulation.

The railroads have more than the usual freight and passenger traffic, the factories get unusually large orders, and business in general is stimulated. At the same time, other material resources such as coal, iron, machinery, lumber and manufactured goods are likely to be produced in unusually large quantities. A few years later there may be too much of these articles on the market, while the farmers may have such poor crops that many are obliged to borrow instead of having money to spend. No wonder business is dull. When material resources can so alter the course of business, it is not strange that many economists think that variations and a quantity of such resources are the main cause of business fluctuations. In spite of the importance of economic resources, many people,

believe that business fluctuations would be of slight importance, and that hard times and panics would largely disappear if only our laws were better. Consider the effect of excessive taxation, onerous banking restrictions, a currency that does not expand easily or that is subject to inflation. Think of the laws that restrict the legitimate expansion of business. Surely it needs no demonstration to show that many a factory has shut down because the change in the tariff made it impossible to do business. So to it has happened more than once that a railroad has gone into the hands of a receiver because it could not comply with new laws and restrictions.

Bad financial legislation unquestionably precipitated the panic of 1837 when the government of the United States insisted on payment for public lands in gold or silver coin, and thus destroyed the value of banknotes. Here then there seems good ground for the idea that business cycles are largely the result of bad laws. It might seem as if economic and political causes were enough to explain the open flow of business, but businessmen themselves are apt to favour a psychological explanation. The greatest study of mankind is man. They say, and business cycles are a reflection of man's mind. Of course, bad crops do not improve business,

but after all, in these days of easy transportation, poorer crops would not do much harm, if only people would not become panicky. so too overproduction would not occur if people did not have the curious habit of becoming overconfident. If one man did this at one time, another at another, no great harm would result. For some reason, however, when overconfidence appears in one place, it appears also in others. It is almost like a contagious disease. If it sees as bed of influence, it spreads through the whole world of business. The same with depression, so subtle as man's mind that the whole community is swept by waves and fears of

which make large numbers of people restrict their output, try to sell their surplus stock, reduce their orders, and keep their money in safe places instead of putting it into a legitimate business. Such causes say the thinkers of the psychological group are much more important than either economic or political factors in causing fluctuations in business. Until recently, I was inclined to sympathise with the economic group. While recognising the importance of laws and of psychology, I felt that economic conditions, and especially the volume of the crops, are the most important cause of cycles of prosperity and depression. Being anxious to discover the main factors which influence the health for the community from

year to year, I reasoned that variations in rainfall and in other climatic conditions are the cause of variations in the crops. Therefore, there must also be the cause of variations in the death rate. Bad crops are followed in a few years by hard times, so there is a reason that we are during hard times many people are out of work the children at the laboring classes are often ill-nourished there is no money for medicines delicacies and a doctor's bill even the more prosperous part of the community are under a nervous strain hence at such times there must be more deaths than during the prosperous times which was supposed to follow good crops hence i looked for a rise in the death rate during hard times

and a fallen good this line of thought may sound reasonable But it's Felicia's. These statistics from 1870 to the Great War show that a higher death rate regularly precedes hard times, while a low death rate precedes prosperity. By no possibility can the reverse be made to appear in their case. Health is a cause far more than an effect. Apparently fluctuations in health

are a cause of changes in mental efficiency, in drunkenness, in bank deposits, in prices, and in immigration. I know that this seems incredible. When I first compared the curve of health with that of business in one form and another, such a close connection seemed impossible. Now, however, I see no escape from it. The psychologists are apparently right. Business cycles appear to depend largely on the mental attitude of the community,

and the mental attitude depends on health. So sweeping a conclusion can be accepted only on the basis of most thoroughgoing proof. Let us begin with the variations in health. The most delicate index of the health of a community, is the death rate. Figure 1 illustrates the changes in the health rate year by year from 1870 to 1910 in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York City and Chicago. Strange as it may seem, these places are the only parts of the United States where an approximately reliable record of deaths are available as far back as 1870. In figure 1 and subsequent diagrams,

as is shown in appendix A, the gradual change from decade to decade, the so-called secular trend, due in this case to improvements in medical practice has been eliminated. Hence in figure one the numbers on the left show a percentage by which the deaths in the various years exceed or fell short of what would have occurred if the improvements brought by medical science had been the only reason for changes in the death rate. These departures from the normal are the subject of our study. Notice how closely the four curves in figure one agree. All are high in 1872. They sink to a low level about 1878.

rise again at the beginning of the 80s, fall about 1885, rise markedly in 1891 or 1892, fall once more in 1897, rise a little about 1900, fall in 1902 or 1903, and finally rise again in 1907. The only marked discrepancies are in 1903 in Chicago and 1904 in New York. The average for all four regions is given at the bottom. Double weight has been given to Chicago because it is the only representative of the Great Interior. It is true that the early Chicago statistics are not particularly complete, but this applies only to a short time.

Moreover, it makes no essential difference, for the main features of all the curves are substantially the same. Even if Chicago were admitted, the average curve would look almost as now, except that the fluctuations would be somewhat less extreme. Yet they would be large. Is it not surprising that the difference between the highest and lowest points that the Connecticut curve in Ficca one is 23 percent? Massachusetts 24%, New York 29%, and Chicago 51%, while the average curve it amounts to 32%.

Clearly some powerful agency causes similar variations in all health over the eastern quarter of the United States. That agency, as we shall see later, appears to be the weather. For the present, let us pass by the causes which widespread variations in health and study their effect. Our statistics of deaths represent the northeastern quarter of the United States, this region from New England and New England. New York westward to the Mississippi River includes more than half the people of the United States and a much larger proportion of those who are active in business. Hence, when the curve of deaths is inverted, it represents the health of the business section of the United States.

This whole curve appears at the top of Figure 2. Below it comes a curve showing the percentage of persons who passed in civil service examinations. The number of persons taking the examinations increased from about 14,000 in 1893 to well over 200,000 in 1910. The applicants for civil service positions represent all classes of society. They current from all over the country, although the great majority live in the northeastern quarter represented by the health curve. The examination papers are graded by a large number of persons representing a variety of bureaus. There is no reason to think that there have been any marked changes in severity with which the papers are graded. Psychologists have concluded that

such examinations furnish an admirable test of mental capacity, and that they can be greater with much accuracy. Hence, this set of statistics probably gives a good idea of the general mental alertness of the American people as a whole. The curves of health and of examination in figure two show a marked agreement. Good health from 1884 to 1886 is followed by a high percentage of success in the examinations of 1886. A slight drop in both lines is followed by good health in 1889 and good examinations in 1890. Then it comes 1891, a year of many deaths and poor health. See how the examinations fall off the next year. It is not necessary to trace the curves further, that rise and fall almost in harmony except that good or bad health systematically

precedes success or failure in the examinations by about one year. The lower curve in figure two represents temperance. In other words, it is the interval curve of the consumption of alcoholic liquor per capita. The general increase of consumption has been eliminated as explained in the appendix, and the curve shows the percentages by which the actual consumption departed from what would be expected if the increase from year to year were steady. The curve has been inverted so that good conditions are represented by high parts and bad by low. The resemblance between the curves of health and temperance is obvious. Notice how they both rise to a high level in 1878, 1885, and in the period from 1897 to

1901. The temperance reformer may say, ah, here we have the widespread cause variations in the death rate. It is the drink which does the business. Further study, however, shows that this is not the case. Doubtless the use of alcoholic liquors increases the death rate, but something else is the main controlling factor both in health and in business. The proof of this lies in the examination of the lowest point of the two curves.

Almost always, health reaches its lowest ebb before the consumption of Vilco becomes greatest. Poor health in 1872 is followed by much drinking in 1873. The same relation holds between 1881 and 1882, between 1887 and 1888, between 18901 and 1893, between 1895 and 1896, and between 1910 and 1911. In other cases such as 1900, 1903 and 1907, the two curves dropped together, but as a rule the temperance curve lags behind the other. How shall we interpret this relationship between health and temperance? In the United States, the drinking of alcoholic liquors is to a large degree, a question of moral strength. The case with us is not the same as in Europe.

There, before the Great War, beer, ale and similar drinks were a regular part of the food supply. No moral question was generally involved in their use. Hence their consumption varied almost directly in proportion to the buying power of the community. In the United States, however, the proportion of people who drink in this way is comparatively small. The vast majority think that drinking is not a good plan. Therefore, they drink only because they feel the need of something to brace them up, or because they have not the strength of mind to refuse invitations or to resist their own desires. The steady drinker perhaps drinks most when out of work.

The far larger army of moderate drinkers use most alcohol when they are physically or morally weak. This then is the meaning of the agreement between the curves of health and of temperance. When people's health is good, they do not crave liquor so much as when they are weak. They are weak at times of many deaths. Each death means perhaps ten times many people are seriously sick, and hundred times as many have some slight ailment. It is not notorious that anemic women resort to so-called vegetable tonics, which are really nothing but disguised alcoholic liquors.

Thus when poor health is widely prevailing that many people get the habit of drinking. When better health and stronger wills prevail, people do not give up the habit at once, for it takes longer to get rid of a bad habit than to form it. Thus, at the lowest ebb, the curve of temperance generally lags behind that of health. On the other hand, when people's health is good, they have the moral strength to say no, and the highest points of the two curves generally coincide. In the lower line of figure three, I have combined the curves of civil service examinations and of temperance, giving equal weight to each. The one may be regarded as representing mental alertness. The other is

representing strength of will. Combined, they represent mental power. Such power, especially when united with a physical vigor, gives a nation the ability to do the things that cause progress and promote civilization. Of course, such ability may be exerted in the wrong direction, but our present concern is merely to find out what causes it, and how it is modified. Above the curve of mental power in Figure 3, I have again placed the curve of health. The two curves agree even more closely than to the curves of Figure 2. With that exception, each upward or downward movement of one is reflected in the other.

The dotted lines connecting the maxima bringing this out clearly. With one exception, the maxima of mental power lag a year behind the maxima of health. In the exceptional case, the lag is two years. From the early 90s to the first few years of the 20th century, the general health of the United States improved about 20% more than it would be expected on the basis of the improvement in medical practice and hygiene. During the same period, mental power apparently increased an almost equal ratio. I know that it sounds unreasonable to place these two things in such close connection,

but the facts are stubborn. What can they mean except that man's power of achievement is closely dependent upon his health? Here is the apparent sequence of events. This year the death rate is low. People have relatively few serious illnesses. They are comparatively free from anemia, colds and other minor ills that constantly prevent us from doing our best. As a result of the young people who are going to take the civil service. examinations study unusually well. Young men who have begun to drink a little swear off.

Those who have not yet begun to drink do not yield to temptation so easily as they would if they did not feel so strong and vigorous. Hence the community is in a fit condition to make progress, and a year later the effect is evident in the civil service examinations and in the drink bill. If health is so potent in controlling men's mental power, has at any effect upon his other activities? The answer is found in figure four. There, the upper line is the curve of health, the foundations are to speak of our present discussion. Below it comes the curve of mental power in the United States. These two curves are identical with those of figure three, except that the line representing mental power has been pushed one year to the left. If the dotted lines of

figure three were inserted in figure four, they would become vertical. Thus the lag of a year between the conditions of health and the succeeding conditions of mental achievement is eliminated. The next curve, C, illustrates the attendance of children at school. Where it is high, the attendance is good and vice versa. If absences depend only upon health, the school curve will be expected to follow the health curve directly. As a matter of fact, absences depend upon many other factors. One of these is the amount of employment. In good times, there is the tendency to take children out of school and send them to work. Whereas in bad times, there is nothing for children to do and they are better off in school than anywhere else. Another factor is a mental attitude of both parents and children.

When health and energy are at their best, the parents are more likely to keep their children up to the mark than when the community as a whole is anemic. Thus, Curve C shows not only the direct influence of health, but also the influence of employment and of mental energy. It has been shut back, that is, to the left, one year because, he has been shut back. Here, as in many other cases, the effect of habit last after the original cause ceases to exist. In this position, it shows an unmistakable resemblance to the curve of health. Curves D to E in figure 4 represent business conditions. Indeed, we see what happens in New York. The curve represents the amount by which the transactions of the New York clearinghouse depart from the normal

that will be expected if business increase steadily without the pulsations which are so notable a feature. This curve has been shown to the left three years, so that the year 1873 lies in line with 1870 of the health curve. The agreement of the two curves are so close that one can scarcely doubt that there is some connection. Notice the decline in business corresponding to the poor health of the early 70s. Then see how good health in 1878 is followed by great activity in New York's finances three years later. Thus, as our curves are arranged, the two of the two of the early 70s. high points come together. A little later there comes a decline in health and business followed by rather poor conditions throughout the rest of the 80s. Next bad health in

1891 is the sign for the relatively poorest business ever done upon the New York clearinghouse from 1870 to the Great War. Of course the low state of business in 1994 and for the next few years was due to the panic of 1893 but why did the panic occur just after a period of peculiarly bad health? The worst during the period under observation. Why, too, did the panic of 1873 come just after a period of bad health, the severity of which was next to that of 1893? A similar line of reasoning applies to E, which shows the variations in the prices of all commodities.

It is based on Faulkner's figures from 1870 to 1889, and those of the Bureau of Labor from that time onward. Like all the curves in this chapter does not indicate the absolute changes. Instead of this, it shows the fluctuate. from the level that would exist if certain permanent tendencies such as the improvement in manufacturing and transportation or the decline in the value of gold worked steadily without interference from other factors such as the weather. The resemblance of the curves of prices to that of health is remarkable. The chief difference is that when the prices once fall, they do not recover again so quickly as does health. Notice how the low prices corresponding to the poor health of 1872 continue for four years.

years. Similarly, those corresponded to the sickness of 1881 last two or three years, while those attending the bad period of 1891 continues still longer. Another point should be noted. The price curve has been shoved back four years instead of three, as in the case in the New York clearinghouse. In other words, general prices do not change quite so quickly as has the amount of bank clearings in New York. If anyone objects to using general prices as a measure of the conditions of of business in general, the national banks can be used as a yardstick. The fluctuations in the deposits in such banks are shown in curve F of figure 4.

Here we have essentially the same fluctuations as the curve for prices. The two most prominent features in this curve, as in all the others, are the maximum following the good health of 1878 and the minimum following the poor health of 1891. The bank deposits like the prices lag about four years behind the conditions of health. This is because when bank clearings become active, there is a certain amount of lag before the money actually on deposit reaches a maximum. A still greater lag, about five years, occurs in the case of immigration. Curve Chee in figure four. The greatest forces in bringing immigrants to this country are the reports of their friends as to high wages and the money that those already here sent over to pay the passage of their relatives.

Activity in the New York market, high prices of commodities in general, and abundant deposit. in the national banks are all signs of business activity, plentiful work and good wages. Thus, it is not surprising that the high tide of immigration follows a year or two after high watermark in these other lines. The surprising thing is to find that the curve of immigration at an interval of five years almost reproduces the curve of health. Compare the two once more. Remember that during five years, many other conditions aside from health have an opportunity to act. Remember also that although the prosperity of the United States is deciding factor in the volume of immigration, hard times, political disturbances and racial jealousies across the water are highly important. Yet in spite of all these other factors, the curve of immigration faithfully reflects the main fluctuations of the curve of health.

Finally, for the benefit of the reader who does not believe that anyone in condition gives a true picture of the prosperity of the country, I've prepared Curve Age. Is the average of C to G, each of these five is reckoned as of equal importance and is given a lag corresponding to that shown in figure 4. This is legitimate, for it takes time for health to be converted into good habits, for mental activity to be converted into bank clearings, for a business decision to be converted into a factory and for high wages to be converted into immigrants. Thus we may say that curve age represents the total effect that good health may be expected to have upon the country, although some effects come sooner and others later.

The faithfulness with which children attend school, the volume of bank clearings in New York City, the general level of prices of all commodities, the size the deposits in national banks, and the number of immigrants reaching our shores. These are the elements which have been combined to represent the general prosperity of the United States. Below the curve of prosperity, the curve of health has been repeated and labeled J, this time, however, is smoothed by the formula. A plus 2b plus C over 4 equals B. This means that the health of a single year cannot be expected to produce all the observed effects.

Other years play their part. Therefore, in any given year, such as B in the equation, instead of reckoning the health of that year alone, I have averaged its health between the preceding year, A, and the succeeding year, C. Double weight, however, has been given to the year in question. Thus, Curve-J represents the effect that the weather, acting through health, might be expected to have upon the general prosperity of the next four or five years. The actual effect is shown in Curve H. The resemblance of curves H and J is so pronounced that scarcely needs emphasis.

Remember that both are based upon the fullest modern statistics. In no cases any change being made in the statistics except to eliminate the features due simply to normal growth. By thus eliminating the tendency for bank deposits, for example, to increase from decade to decade, however, we cannot possibly add anything to a curve. We simply prevent the minor fluctuations from being concealed by the fact that the total volume of deposits is now much greater than in 1870 because the country has grown. I emphasize this point because one reason why people have not seen the relationships here pointed out is that they have looked at the growth of business. the growth in immigration and so forth, and have not realized that at 1870 a change of a million dollars in bank deposits or of 100,000 in immigration was as important as a change of 10 million or 400,000 now.

We have shoved our curves backward only in accordance with the known facts as to the delay that inevitably occurs between the making of a decision or the birth of an idea and the fruition of the decision and the idea. First the idea must be carefully examined, then other men must be interested in it. Next, part of financing it must be found. Then orders have to be placed. Next, machines must be made, factories must be enlarged, and finally after new goods are being made, there is a certain lapse of time before they have much effect upon prices, bank deposits and immigration. How important such delays are was brought home to the United States in the Great War?

We made a great decision in April 1917. A year later, the aeroplanes, ships and other indispensable articles, which that decision involved, were only beginning to be ready. Yet that was a case in which urgent haste was demanded, and in which, in spite of mistakes, the most strenuous efforts were made to produce such haste. Notwithstanding the complaints of the critics, private enterprise could not possibly have accomplished so much in so short a time and under so many difficulties.

No private concern, for example, can hasten production by demanding the right of way on railroads. Thus, the shoving back of our curves is the only reasonable thing to do. If they were removed in the other direction or by any amount not in accordance with reason, they would not fit the curve of health. The business conditions of the country thus act exactly as if they were the result of the preceding conditions of health. The truth of this last statement is emphasized by comparing the conditions of the country as the case. by comparing the curve of prosperity with the curve of crops. If any economic factor has a dominating effect upon American prosperity, it is surely the crops.

You look at curve K in figure 4, and represents the average yield per acre of the nine chief crops, which make up more than 95% of the products of our soil. The figures are taken from Moore's interesting little book on economic cycles. This curve has been smoothed in the way employed, for Curve J, above it. The unsmoved curve is compared with a health curve of thicker 5. When the smooth curve crop is compared with a curve of prosperity, a certain resemblance is indeed apparent. But look at the crop minimum in 1887 and the maximum in 1891, the minimum in 901 and the maximum in 1905.

These features by no means accord with the conditions of prosperity. Certainly the crops must have an important effect upon prosperity. When crops and health are both favourable, as they were to a notable degree about 1878 and 1898, and to a less degree in 1884, prosperity is doubtless much enhanced. When crops and health are in opposite directions, however, there can be no question as to which has the greater effect upon business. The prosperity curve follows the health curve with no apparent regard for the crops. Contrary as it seems to by established confictions, there appear to be no way of avoiding the conclusion

that economic cycles of adversity and prosperity in the United States depend upon health far more than upon any other factor and often depends largely upon the weather. End of Section 3. Of World Power and Evolution

by Ellsworth Huntington This is a Libby Vox according or Libby Vox Accordings in the public domain. For more information not of other please visit the provox.org. Recorded by Leon Harvey Chapter 3. Business cycles in foreign countries

If the business conditions of the United States depends so closely upon health, how about other countries? The data for answering this question are scanty. It is easy to show that in agricultural countries like Russia, India and Spain, the urban flow of business appear to be

almost entirely determined by the crops. It is quite possible that in those countries the same conditions which cause poor crops are also the direct cause of ill health. But as to that, we cannot yet speak with certainty. What we want to know, however, is how far conditions of health determine the course of business and countries where manufacturing and commerce are highly developed. It was scarcely paid to consider small countries like Belgium and Switzerland, for their prosperity and adversity are largely dependent on those of their large neighbours.

Austria and Italy, like Russia, are too purely agricultural to answer our purpose. Moreover, for all three of these countries, it is difficult to obtain homogeneous statistics covering a sufficiently long period. This limits our investigation to France, England and Germany. In France, however, the conditions of business are radically different from those of the United States. In the first place, in spite of for manufacturers, most parts of France are self-supporting. There is no large section like the North Atlantic states where manufacturing industries

completely overshadow agriculture. Here the foundations of prosperity are more stable in France than in this country. In the next place, the manufacturing industries of France cannot be expanded anything like so easily as those in the United States. This is partially because the French population is stable and there is relatively little opportunity to draw labour from abroad. We talk about the value of free immigration. and stimulating industry, but we might more wisely talk about the harm done by free immigration

in stimulating our times. As H.P. Fairchild points out, immigration helps to rob us of that stability, which is so valuable in France. When a good times are upon us, immigrants flock to our shores. They are so eager to work that they keep wages low. That's that times when undue expansion is underway, the condition of the labor market does not act as a check as it ought. During the great war, we saw that scarcity of labour checks many enterprises. At that time the scarcity was harmful, but at times of ordinary industrial expansion, most urgent need is some agency that will prevent overproduction. In France, the fixity of the labour supply provides such an agent. If factories and other productive works begin to expand, wages go up because they are not enough

workmen, and there is no great foreign supply waiting eagerly for a chance to fill the gap. Hence the tendency to ever production is checked instead of being stimulated as it is by our unreasonable system. France possesses another stabilising influence in its proverbial thrift. Almost every French family considers that savings are as necessary as earnings. Hence there is always a large body of capital ready to be drawn upon in every community. This obviates the danger of contraction of queer, which does so much to accentuate hard times in America. Another effect of the thrifty habits of the French is that when there is a slight tendency toward depression, the expenditures of the general public do not fall off so rapidly as with us. If people's incomes decline a little, they either save less for a while or draw on what they have already stored up.

Many Americans, on the contrary, especially the recent immigrants, have nothing stored up and have not learned to save. So long as waiters are good they spend all they own, and thus intensively. and thus intensify the overproduction which is the cause of their prosperity. Then when hours are curtailed, or when they lose their jobs, they have nothing to live on. Not only do they fail to perform any appreciable part as consumers, but they act as a drag on the rest of the community. Their very presence lurfing on the streets or hanging about the factory doors in hope of work increases the feeling of insecurity, which is one of the prime factors in causing depression. France being relatively free from this evil, as well as from others that best America, is also relatively free from financial crisis.

England is less thrifty than France, and hence might be expected to show the psychological effect of health much, as does the United States. She also depends upon manufacturing and buys food from other regions, much as do the North Atlantic States. Moreover, her statistics are very full and reliable, so that she might seem to be ideal. as a test of the relation of health to business. Nevertheless, a comparison between the death rate and business activities fails to disclose any such relationship as we have found in the United States.

At first sight, this may seem to prove that health is not so important as we have supposed. Such a conclusion, however, is scarcely warranted. In the first place, the prosperity of England does not depend upon her own resources, to anything like the extent that ours does. One of her greatest lines of business is the carrying trade That depends on the prosperity of many other countries scattered all over the world In the same way her food supply does not depend upon her own climatic conditions But upon those of the United States

Australia Argentina India and Russia Thus unfavorable conditions of health and of crops at home Are apt to be neutralized by favorable conditions abroad At a advantage which we do not possess Moreover, the British labour supply is less mobile than ours. In this respect, conditions are more like those of France. Of course, all the European countries draw some labour from their neighbours, but on nothing like the American scale.

Moreover, prosperity in all the countries of Western Europe is likely to occur at the same time. This, of course, diminishes the ease with which labour can be diverted from one country to another, and thus lessen the dangers of overproduction. America, on the contrary, possesses a potential attractive force, not only in her immediate labour conditions, but in her magic charm as a supposed land of freedom. There is another and stronger reason why England's death rate shows so little relation to her economic life. In order to understand this, we must anticipate a conclusion which will be fully discussed

in the next chapter. The conclusion is that variations in health from year to year are due largely to climatic conditions. This carries with it the cholera that under certain climatic conditions people are mentally stimulated while under other conditions they are depressed. In England, such variations both in health and in feeling are not nearly so marked as the United States. This extreme fluctuations in the death rate there are only about half as great as here. More than this, the fluctuations do not appear to be of great importance in their nervous

effects. is located in a fortunate climate where extremes are rare. That is probably one reason why Englishmen seem to Americans phlegmatic. They are not in the sense that tropical people are inactive, but they are not nervous in the way that Americans, Canadians and Australians are nervous. Nor do they go to the extremes of Alecian and of despondency which are characteristic of the Russians, and would seem, in part at least, to be the result of extreme fluctuations in climate. Hence the variations in the health of the English did not have nearly so much effect upon that mental activity as do the similar variations in this country. Thus, even though England does not show the effect of health upon economic cycles, it actually supports the main thesis of this book.

That thesis is that climatic conditions, through their effect upon health, are largely responsible for differences of mental attitude, both from place to place and from time to time. England's climate is bracing, even though it is not subject to extreme. subject to extremes. In fact, for real excellence, it is perhaps the best in the world. One of its great advantages seems to be that from you to you, it is not very enough to have much effect upon the nerves, and thus helps to keep England's business life more steady than that of the United States. This leaves Germany as the only European country where conditions are enough like those of the United States to finish a conclusive test. In many ways, the resemblance between Germany and the northeastern United States is surprising. In both there is the same great

development of manufacturing and the consequent importation of food. In Germany far more than in other countries of Europe the labour supply is mobile. Although German immigration cannot compare with that which enters the United States, every period of industrial expansion brings a great wave of poles from the east. Indeed, one of Germany's grievances against the rest of the world as being that, while hard times see your own children migrating westward across the sea, good times see their places filled by aliens from the east. In addition to this, the effect of the German climate upon the nerves is somewhat like that of our own. It is not so extreme, to be sure, but it has much more effect than that of England.

Surprising as I may seem, in view of Germany's statistical reputation, I have found it hard to obtain any statistics comparable with those available for the United States and England. I have gone through the statistic Jarbuk again and again, but imports and exports are the only available subjects as to which uniform figures are available for a sufficiently long period. Because of the recency with which Germany became a unified empire, good statistics for the country as a whole are not available earlier than about 1875 and in most cases 1880. Even where statistics are available, they often divide into those for Prussia, Bavaria, etc. for part of the years, and are given for the whole country in later years only. For our present purpose, however, the figures for imports and exports are sufficient. They give a good idea the economic conditions of the country, and that is what we want.

Figure 6 is displayed on the page, Health and Business in Germany. Figure 6 shows the German variations of health, imports and exports, so far as the data are available. The curves for imports and exports have been shoved to the left two years, since this appears to be the amount of delay between conditions of health than those of commerce. Notice in the first place that the German curve for deaths does not move up and down anything like so violently as that United States. This is partially because it is based on the entire country, instead of only about a seventh of the total population as in the United States. It is also because the variations from you to year are actually less than in this country. They are less because the Germans are undeniably ahead of us in the public care of health. They are also less because the climate of Germany is less strenuous than that of the United States.

Examining the curves in detail, it appears that in Germany, both imports and exports vary in fairly close harmony with health. The health maximum of 1881 was followed in two years by a maximum of both imports and exports. In the case of the succeeding minimum, however, there was no delay in the case of imports, while the minimum of exports actually occurred a year before the absolute minimum of health. Hence, since the curves are drawn with the imports and exports shoved two years to the left, there does not appear to be much agreement. The health maximum of 1887 to 1888, however, faithily reflected in both of the business curves, so 2 is a minimum of 1893, which is delayed two years in import.

and 1-0.0 exports. Number 3 curves, the minimum maximum of 1891 is apparent, although it is insignificant in the line from imports. Next comes the little maximum of 1894, which is evident in the exports but not in the imports. The general high level health from age 94 to 1898 has its counterpart in an increase of both imports and exports reaching a maximum in 1900,

which appears in figure 6 as 1898. Then it comes a rapid drop in all the curves. Taking the curves of the whole, we may say that up to 1900 or 1902 in the business curves, the course of health is closely followed by that of business, especially in the imports, which seemed to be an excellent measure of general prosperity. After 1900, however, the other curves appeared to have nothing to do with that of health. That was the time when the German imperial policy began to be effective. German business was not allowed to pursue its natural course as hitherto. It was officially boosted, guided, and of need be chastised. Notice the unnatural steadiness with which the imports increased from 1902 to 1997, 1900-1905, according to the health dates.

The sudden collapse in 1907 may perhaps have had something to do with the American panic, then once more the government's steady boosting began to have effect. From this brief survey of European countries, we conclude that in Europe, as well as in America, health has much to do with economic cycles. In countries like England and France, the mildness of both the summers and winters, cause the variations in nerves activity to be so slight that their effect is concealed by other influences, such as the commerce and foreign relations of England and the threat of France together, with the lack of an expensive labour supply.

Yet when further analysis is possible, even these countries will probably show a relationship of some kind between health and business. In Germany, such a relationship seems clear. Business activities follow this lead of health so long as the government does not interfere. The waves of business are not delayed so long after the waves of health as in the United States, presumably because they are not so large. Otherwise, the relationship is similar. Thus far it has been possible only to scratch the ground in this important field. When deeper ploughing is possible, rich harvests will probably be reaped.

End of Section 3. Section 4 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Librivox according, or Librivox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Librevox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 4. How Health Does Its Work In the preceding chapters, we have assumed that the relation of health to business is chiefly psychological. Unquestionably, however, the death rate has an economic effect. In fact, there is good reason to think that the economic effect is comparable to that of the crops. Let us examine this matter in the United States.

From 1870 to 1910, the annual death rate in the north-eastern quarter of the United States averaged not far from 18 per thousand. reckoning in terms of the high prices with which the world is now familiar, it seems safe to say that economists are not extravagant when they estimate the value of the average human life at about $5,000. Of course, this varies according to age, health and ability. Nevertheless, if we reckon the expense of bringing up children, the amount that people could earn if they live to a normal old age, the harm done to business by the taking away of individuals of a special ability that are strained. sorrow and actual incompetence which death causes among survivors and the expense of hospitals undertakers doctors nurses insurance companies and the like it seems probable that five thousand dollars is conservative for a present argument however it makes no difference whether we say half as much or twice as much

each death as we have already said means on an average perhaps ten cases of severe sickness and a hundred minor ailments such as colds sick headaches, back aches, stomach aches and so on. Probably the minor ailments number far more than 100, for practically no one is free from them. Most people indeed have at least 10 or 20 days per year with some slight ailment, while none of us dies but once. Since the average life in the United States is now nearly 35 years,

that would mean at least 350 minor ailments for each death. Whatever the exact figures may be, such ailments are very numerous and almost universal. It is a well-established medical principle that when the death rate increases, the amount of sickness and the number of minor ailments also increases in essentially the same proportion. Each sickness, as well as each death, obviously involves a financial loss to the general public. Not only does the sick person lose time and wages, provided he is at work, but he is an expense to the community for food, care, hate and many other things. He takes the time of people who ought to be otherwise occupied.

His absence does harm in office, factory, school or home. Someone else has to do his work and generally does it less sufficiently. The minor elements are also an expense. The man with a cold or a headache may go to the office, but he does less work than usual, although he often will not admit it. Moreover, his work is not so good, for he makes mistakes and loses his temper. Moreover, most people lose at least one day each year because of some minor ailment, which does not send them to bed, or cause the doctor to be summoned.

Taking all these things into consideration, it scarcely seems an exaggeration to conclude that the 10 major sicknesses and 300 minor ailments, which accompany each death, cause at least $500 worth of damage. On this basis, each death means an expense of about 5.5. 500 or approximately $100,000 for the 18th deaths in each 1,000 other population. In other words, from 1872, 1910, the deaths in the United States cost at the rate of approximately $100 per year for every man, woman and child. Even half this figure would be a terrible tax. The heavy death rate is not the same from year to year. We have seen that regardless

of the improvement in medical practice, the death rate may within a few years vary over. 20% in New England and 50% in Chicago. In the north-east and quarter of the United States as a whole, the maximum variation appears to have been about 30%. According to the present scale of population, this would make a difference of $3 billion between the best year and the worst. The labour supply of the country increases or diminishes because of this variation. Remember that we are dealing not only with the actual losses through death,

but with the delays when men stay at home because their wives are sick, their babies are dying, or they're called to the bedside of their feeble parents. Remember that their loss in efficiency includes also the anemic work done by men and women with bad colds, with indigestion and with sick headaches, and also the mistakes made by people with sharky nerves. Think of the stock spoiled, the letters miscent, the men wrongly discharged, the bad bargains, and the friction of misunderstanding due to these many causes. The sum total is enormous. For two, that all these losses increase in the same ratio as a death rate.

Can there be any question that when the general health is bad, the country pays a huge tax which would be unnecessary if people's health were good? We won't make much of variation in the crops from year to year. But why make so much more of the vegetable crop than of the human crop? Expressed in dollars and cents, the human losses of a year of bad health are the same order as material losses due to bad crops. There is no sense in carefully watching one and neglecting the other. On a purely economic basis, the businessmen of the country ought to pay as much attention

to the death rate as to the crop reports. How much space do the two receive relatively in our papers? How much do our cities spend for the conservation of health? Is it not ridiculous that in the year, 1916, the 213 cities in the United States having a population of over 30,000, spent only $14 million on the conservation of health, while they were in the spent $67 million on the police department and $53 million on the fire department. Those same cities spent as much on hospitals as on the conservation of health, as much to cure people as to prevent them from being ill. It is as if the Department of Agriculture at Washington

spent its money on picking the scale from the leaves of orange trees rather than in discovering how to eradicate this obvious blight. Although I have thus emphasized the economic aspects of health. I believe that the psychological aspects are still more important. We might dwell upon the effect of poor health in promoting crime, vice, stupidity and misery. Let us confine ourselves, however, to business, and let us see why there is reason to believe that the psychological effect of ill health is even greater than the economic effect. One of the chief reasons for this conclusion is that an obvious economic factor, such as the crops which are the greatest single material resource of the United States, by no means show close connection with business fluctuations,

as does the death rate. Important as is the economic effect of ill health, it can scarcely have so great an effect as the crops. The crops have not only their purely material effect, but also the great psychological effect which comes from their constant discussion in the papers. The economic effect of ill health has no such reinforcement through publicity. In the second place, if the economic factor in ill health were dominant, it seems as if it would make itself apparent in England. The absence of any apparent effect there, as we have seen, is in accordance with the psychological explanation, but not with the economic. The economic effects in England must be similar to those in America, but the psychological effect is apparently far less because of the less severe climate. Again, if it should be found that some of the minor movements of prices in the stock market are associated with fluctuations in the death rate,

it would be strong evidence of the psychological effect of health. Finally, the fact that businessmen themselves are so strongly convinced of the importance of psychology in business fluctuations seems to be a weighty argument. Their view with slight modifications coincides exactly with that to which we are led by a study of health. In concluding this chapter, we may well restate this view of the businessmen with the modifications suggested by our study of health. At certain times, says the businessman, a wave of optimism goes over the community. Many men feel that now is the time for an advance. There's time for the railroad in which they are interested to double track a new section, run a spur to a new manufacturing town, and improve the stations.

Others say it is time to build a factory, boom and neglected mining property, open a new chain of drugstores, or make a market for a new brand of baking powder. One man's optimism, so it is said, communicates itself to another, and thus the idea of expansion is in the air. Our study of health makes us believe that this phrase, in the air, is literary true. Because the air has certain qualities which we shall examine in the next chapter, good health prevails. Not only does the death rate drop to a low level, but sicknesses are rare. People do not suffer so much as usual from colds and headaches, and those who are well have a feeling of strength and buoyancy. We all know that feeling, and we know that it makes us hospitable to new ideas.

The ideas that have been floating in men's minds seem more feasible than formerly. The difficulties do not seem so formidable. Hence one man here and another there makes a final decision, which may have been hanging fire for a long time. That's the long term of circumstances is set in motion. Consider your own case. Your financial, social and moral condition may be exactly the same at two different times, Yet at one time you lie awake at night and wonder whether you can ever pull through. Something that cannot happen for a year, and that may not happen then.

Seem like a mountain of difficulty. You get up in the morning, determined to play your part perhaps, but dull and hopeless. No, you are not sick. You believe that your judgment is as good as ever, but something is wrong with the world. A few months later, everything is different. You drop asleep as soon as you go to bed. Your warriors seem to be gone. you can meet that debt

you can build that new wing of the factory you can increase your sales the man who seems three months ago to be your greatest enemy is relatively harmless of course he did not do the fair thing but after all he can't hurt you and anyhow the poor chap deserves pity

with a sick nervous wife like that so you go about your business hopefully although the actual facts are no better and no worse than they were when you were so depressed I know that there are many men who say that they decide on their business policy for motives of judgment and not because of their feelings.

But do they? One of the directors of a large corporation broaches a new scheme. Does not its reception by the others depend largely upon whether the president or more or other particularly influential director happens to favour or oppose it? And does not that man's judgment vary according to whether he has been overworking or is thoroughly rested by a weekend yachting trip? He may not see that his judgment depends on his physical condition, but other people can see it plainly enough.

In claiming that health is of such importance I would not be misunderstood as minimizing the well-established conclusions of businessmen and economists. Human activities are like the various parts of an engine. Because we happen to be talking about safety valves, we do not thereby minimize the importance of levers and boilers. Each is essential. The piston rod cannot say to the wheels, I have no need of you. Or can the bell make the axles unnecessary?

All human activities are run by human energy. The cause of that energy is as unknown as the cause of life. Health is merely an expression of it, or rather health, as it were, turns on the steam. Then each part functions according to laws that are well understood. If the steam is turned on too fully as it is when people feel the sense of elation and recklessness, which we all know, the training data is forward, do fast. and may jump the track if the curves are too sharp. If there is not enough steam in the cylinders,

as happens when people feel depressed, the engine cannot start on a grade, and the economic force of poor crops or of a scanty supply of ocean tonnage cause a train to slip back a bit on the rails. What we need is really good health, such as prevails more commonly in England than here. If health varies greatly,

and evalation and depression are consequently this rule, we may look for financial information and depression, such as we have in this country, or for alternate waves of revolutionary zeal and dull reaction such as occur in Russia. A steady hand is needed on the valve of health which turns on the steam of human energy. End of Section 4. Section 5 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Librevox according to the public domain. For more information or volunteer, please visit Librevox.org.

Recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 5. Climate and Health We have already seen that health depends largely upon climate, and hence the fluctuations in the weather have much to do with the course of business. But can such a view be sustained? Granted that health may be the most potent cause of the psychological conditions which cause financial and economic expansion and contraction, what ground is therefore believing that health depends primarily on the weather. Aside from a good inheritance, which is of course the first essential, Good health depends upon three material factors, proper food, proper drink and proper air.

Exercise just merely a means of ensuring that our food, drink and air have the opportunity to reach all parts of the body and to be readily eliminated after they have done their work. So too with sleep. We need it in order that food, drink and air may repair the ravages of work. Among these three factors, air is by far the most variable. In civilised countries, the water supply is extremely different. fairly good and its quality merely varies much from year to year or season to season. Of course, diseases like typhoid and dysentery are caused by polluted water,

but in 1915 the last year for which figures are available at the time of writing, neither of these caused 1% of the deaths in the registration areas of the United States. Moreover, only a small part of this 1% arose from variations in the condition of the water. In the same way, while millions of people may die from lack of food in country, countries like China and India. Less than 40 per year have been reported as dying from this cause in the United States since 1900. A certain number died from malnutrition, and some from overeating or from eating unwholesome food. But the total from all such causes is slight. Moreover, the excess of death in one year over another because of variations in food is almost negligible. Thus, while food and drink are highly important, they are not really variable and cannot be appealed as to causes of the great variability.

in the death rate from day to day, week to week, month to month, and year to year. With air, the case is different. Air is the first necessity of life. We may live without food for days and without water for hours, but we cannot live without air for more than a few minutes. Our air supply is therefore more importance than our food or water supply, and good ventilation becomes the first rule of hygiene. These words are taken from the beginning of the first chapter of a book called How to Live.

It is extremely significant that they were written by Professor Fisher, who has an international reputation as an expert on food, and by Dr. Fisk, whose reputation is largely based upon its work in respect to drink. These experts upon food and drink look upon air as the most important factor in health because air is the great variable. The air varies constantly in temperature, humidity, movement, allotification, percentage of carbon dioxide, dustiness, and many other characteristics. A room cannot be closed an hour without causing a distinct change in the quality of the air.

Coupled with all this is the fact that the human body is far more sensitive to the air than any other feature of environment. A person who without a tremor can eat raw oysters, hot soup, cold lobster salad, frozen ice cream and hot coffee will become uncomfortable in a minute if the air at a temperature of 65 degrees instead of 70 degrees blows on her neck. An example of the importance of the air, that is, of climate. Take New York City from 1900 to 1915. The following table shows average temperature of the months of March and July, and the percentage by which the deaths depart from the normal for the year in question. The table is displayed on the page, deaths in New York City during July and March,

1915. In July, the higher the temperature, the higher the death rate. The difference between the hottest and the coolest years amounts to 28.9%. In March the opposite is the case, for the warmest month had 13.9% less deaths than the coldest. In both cases, notice how regularly the death rate declines as the temperature becomes more favourable. Under ordinary conditions, no differences in food or drink ever cause one-tenth as much variation. Neither do epidemics cause any such variations than the death rate. Among the epidemic diseases of the United States,

pneumonia, diphtheria, and influenza cause much the largest number of deaths, provided we emit tuberculosis. Tuberculosis, however, acts very slowly so that the death rate from this cause, which was 9.5% of the total in 1915, shows only very slight variations from year to year. Pumonia, although infectious, depends almost wholly upon the weather conditions. It caused 6.1% of all the deaths in 1915. Influenza and diphtheria each accounted for only 1.2% of the total deaths in 1915.

Yet that was an uncommonly bad year for influenza. Even when these epidemic diseases are the worst, none of them causes a variation of more than 2% or 3% of the deaths in the country as a whole. Let us turn back now to figure 1. We there saw that we have slight exceptions the death rate in various parts of the United States, varies in harmony. We have already seen that variations in the food supply and water supply cannot be the cause of this. Hard times, as we have also seen, are preceded, not followed or accompanied by low death rate. Therefore, they cannot be responsible for the uniform fluctuations in all health over the country. Epidemics, as we have just seen, are not competent to cause such great fluctuations.

Moreover, it will appear later they are subject to the same sort of fluctuations as are other diseases. and the cause is apparently the same. This leaves the weather as the only factor capable of producing such marked variations in health over such wide areas. We have just seen that in New York a difference of 7 degrees Fahrenheit in the average temperature of the month of July is accompanied by a difference of nearly 30% in the number of deaths. Anyone who reads the daily weather reports knows that extreme weather in Chicago, for example, is almost sure to be followed by a similar weather farther east. Thus, in the weather, we clearly have a factor which not only has an enormous influence upon the health and thus upon business, but which also varies in the same way over vast areas. Let us inquire further into the relations of health to the weather.

Figure 7 shows how the average daily death rate of several countries varies from month to month when hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths are considered. Finland, for example, is a country where the summer is neither too hot but where the winters are cold and trying. Notice how the death rate reaches a maximum in winter and declines steadily to a minimum in summer. Next come curves further eastern United States from Massachusetts to Washington. This is a region where the winters are cold enough to be harmful while the summers are hot for at least a short time. In every case the deaths are most numerous in February or

March, that is, at the end of the winter. They decline until June or in their case of Washington until May. Then they increased during the hot weather, decline to an autumn minimum, which generally comes in October, and rise again as cold weather comes on. In Massachusetts, where the summers are usually not oppressive for more than a few days at a time, the increase in the death rate in summer is not merely so great as in winter. As one goes southward, however, the relative harmfulness of the summer increases until that Washington the warm months are worse than the winter. Figure 7 is split on the page, seasonal distribution of deaths in the United States.

In foreign countries the same principles apply. In Germany, for instance, there is a bad time in August, but it does not last so long as a similar period during the winter. In Italy, the summer is worse than in Germany, for the longer duration of the hot weather lengthens the period of increased deaths. The Italian winter is almost much worse than the German winter, which seems surprising at first. This is partially because the Italians,

like other people who live in relatively uniform climates with little variation from day to day lack endurance. Moreover, the care of health receives much more attention in Germany than in Italy. The Japanese curve in figure 7 also shows the dominating effect of climate. In Japan, the late summer and early fall are very damp as well as hot. Hence the season is much worse than the winters or than any of the summers thus far discussed. We might go on with a large number of other curves of this kind, for nearly six million deaths have actually been plotted in this way. They all demonstrate the dependence of health upon climate.

It will be better, however, to inquire now into the precise conditions of climate which promote health, and which thus influence the business and civilization of the world. For this purpose, let us examine about 9 million deaths in the United States, France and Italy, and see under what conditions of temperature, humidity, and very important. variability, the death rate is highest or lowest. To begin with temperature and humidity, figures 8b to 11, are what are known as climate graphs for the northern and southern halves of France and Italy, respectively. The climate graph is simply a diagram representing the effect of climate upon living beings. The method by which these have been prepared is explained in the appendix.

In the present diagram, the figures on the left indicate the average temperature taken day and night together. Those at the top indicate the average humidity in the same way. Dark shady means good health and light shedding poor health. The unshetted area means that no months have the particular combinations of temperature and humidity indicated by those parts of the diagrams. Figure 8a, figure 8b and figure 9 are displayed on the previous pages. To take a concrete example, suppose we want to know the healthfulness of a month having a mean temperature of 60 degrees Fahrenheit and a main relative humidity of 80% in northern France. On the left margin of figure 8b we find the number of 60 degrees beside the word temperature.

Then we as attained the point where the level thus indicated lies directly below the figure 80% among the humidity figures at the top. The point thus determined lies close to the curve line marked. 10. And on the edge of the most heavily shaded part of the diagram, the curve lines are called iso-isorrected. isoprats or lines of equal efficiency. The numbers such as minus 10, 0 and plus 10, etc, mean that on an average all the months having the combination of temperature and humidity included within the minus 10 line for example have an average death rate at least 10% less than that of the

year as a whole. A month having an average temperature of 70 degrees and a humidity of 80% would also fall close to the minus 10 isobract. But on the other side of the heavily shaded areas. Similarly, a month having a temperature of 65 degrees and a humidity of 85% would fall well within this isopract, which means that in such months the depths usually fall below the yearly average by even more than 10%. On the other hand, suppose the temperature average 60 degrees, as in the first case, but the humidity is low, only 60%. This combination of weather conditions occupies a position close to the isopract mark zero.

That is, in northern France, a very dry month with a temperature of 60 degrees, is not merely so helpful as a wetter month having the same temperature. The health in such months average no better than the normal for the year as a whole. A gain of temperature averages only 50 degrees and the humidity is very low, less than 60%. The death rate rises notably. For figure rate shows that in such cases, it has a number of. averages 15% above the yearly average. In wet months, however, an equally high death rate,

as may be judged from the curve of the 15% isopract, is not experienced until the temperature falls to 30 degrees, the coldest ever experienced in northern France. A little further practice will make it easy to read the climographs. Remember that the shading and the isoprax merely indicate the average healthfulness of months having the temperature and humidity

indicated in the margins. Other circumstances cause a month to vary from the average, but the diagrams show what may be expected normally. Now compare figures H to 11. Each of them shows a small black dot, where the temperature is 64 degrees and the humidity 80%. These conditions seem to be the best. They represent what may be called the optimum or ideal. In each of the climber graphs, the dot lies not far from the center of the heavier shading. Now turn to figure 12 to 15, 4 climates.

Dane, four climber crafts for the eastern and central parts of the United States. Here too the general aspect of the drawings are similar to the climber crafts in Italy, and the black dot lies not far from the middle of the darkest shading. Finally look at figure 16 and 17 representing the Pacific coast in the Bulljet Sound region, and figures 18 and 19 representing deaths among white people and Negroes, respectively, in the eastern part of the United States. In two of these, the black dot comes close to the center of the darkest area. while in the other two it falls outside the darkest area and at a lower temperature.

In these two exceptional cases, however, the climate graphs are based on relatively few deaths. Moreover, the failure of these two to conform to the rest amounts to only 6 degrees in figure 17 and 4 degrees in figure 19. In both it is due to special circumstances, for in California the breeziness of the hottest months makes them more favorable than the slightly cooler months, while in figure 19 where the two, dealing with Negroes whose ancestors come from a hot country. These 12 climographs, representing nearly 9 million deaths, agree with the result obtained, from a less careful study of over 50 million other deaths in Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Japan, Russia, Scotland, Austria and Germany.

In a word, the human race seems to have the best health when the average temperature for day and night together is 64 degrees Fahrenheit, that is when the thermometer rises to about 70 degrees at mid-day and drops to perhaps 55 degrees at night. One would suppose that the Swedes of the far north would have become wanted to a temperature colder than that which is best for the Sicilians of the sunny south, but such is not the case. Even the dusky American Negroes, whose ancestors have lived for unnumbered ages in the tropical heat of Africa and who still live where it is fairly warm, are at their best in a temperature scarcely higher than that which is most favourable for the blonde fins under the shadow of the archerable. In fact, the port of fins appear never to have a month warm enough to put them at their best physically. Their death rate keeps declining as the temperature goes up, but might go still lower if the summer were a little warmer.

Thus far, we have made no allowance for contagious diseases, except in figures 18 and 19. This makes no difference, however, for these two climber graphs are essentially the same as the others. Moreover, I have repaired the climograph for the deaths from contagious diseases, which occurred in the same year. occurred in the same years and in the same places as the deaths from non-contagious diseases used in preparing figure 18. This climate graph is as regular as the others. It differs from them in only two respects. First, the departure from the optimum has a more pronounced effect with contagious diseases

than with others. Second at high temperatures, the effect of low humidity is less harmful and of high humidity more harmful than with ordinary diseases. last effect is quite marked. Nevertheless, the optimum is the same no matter which category is considered. Such uniformity is most striking, but is what the biologists would expect. Every species of plant and animal has its optimum temperature, the temperature at which its activities are greatest. It may happen, however, that one kind of activity is greatest at one temperature and another at another. Little one-celled creature is called Parachians

Aramacea and amoebes, cold-blooded crustaceans such as the crevish, amphibians like the frog, and warm-blooded animals like mice, not to mention a host of plants, have all been tested in this respect. In each the best temperature for a given activity seems to be constant for the species. It seems highly probable that when full of data are available, we shall find that even the Negro has the same optimum as the rest of the human race. Perhaps the temperature optimum is something like the temperature of the blood which is the same for all races and does not vary from the tropics to the poles. Indeed it seems quite probable that man's uniform response to the outside temperature is due to the fact that his inside temperature remains always the same. If men of all races are physically at their best at a mean temperature of 64 degrees, why are not the people of the Hawaiian Islands, for example, who have lived for many generations in almost that temperature,

the strongest in the world? Why are they not able to endure as the white man endures? Why have they not developed a high civilization? The answer is twofold. First, the optimum for mental activity is not the same as for physical, and second, temperature is by no means the only factor. As to mental activity, the matter has not yet been investigated so fully as could be wished. Nevertheless, the investigations of Lehman and Peterson on school children, the general results of observations on mental activity in many countries, and my own study of the marks of over 1,600 students at West Point, and Anapolis indicate that the best mental work is done at a temperature decidedly lower than the physical optimum. At both West Point and Anopolis,

the students do the best work when the temperature averages about 40 degrees. As I have explained in civilization and climate, this happens in spite of the fact that the season when this temperature prevails is different in the two places. Wherever the true mental optimum is 40 degrees, that is, when there are mild frosts at night and at nude a temperature approaching 50 degrees, or whether it is a little higher, there seems to be little question that it is distinctly lower than the physical optimum. A higher civilization could not be based either upon physical well-being or mental well-being alone. The two seem to be equally necessary. Therefore, the best climate would apparently be one in which the winters are cool enough so that there are safe. several months with frost, while the summers are warm enough so that there is a considerable

period when the thermometer approaches 70 degrees at noon. Such conditions apparently prevail in the region where our ancestors acquired their present adaptation to climate. In this connection, a curious fact should be noted in respect to the Negroes. For 16 months, Miss Ellen Cope, Mr. H.S. Williams, and some of the other teachers at Hampton Institute carried on a series of tests under the direction of the author. 11 young men and 11 young women, all being negroes ranging from 17 to 25 years of age, were given daily tests at a set hour under highly uniform conditions.

Their physical strength was tested by pressing a dynamometer 10 times. Their mental activity was tested by placing letters in the proper order on some prepared boards and by the common test of striking out letters on a printed sheet. The test with the boards proved much the more satisfactory. At the beginning of each test, it saw a very test, scholar had before him aborted the series of compartments arranged in horizontal rows of seven. On the left of these, the various letters of the alphabet were placed in piles arranged differently each day, so that was impossible to learn any particular arrangement.

After the pupils had been called to attention, the teacher slowly read five letters, started a stopwatch, and that it had run a minute. The pupils had to remember the order of the letters which proved to be a fairly severe memory test, find among them the piles on their left and place them in the proper order in the little compartments as many times as possible. At the end of a minute the teacher called time, read a new set of letters and the work was repeated. This was done five times each day. These tests involved a physical factor, namely the speed with which the pupil moved their hands, but they involved to an equal or high degree the mental factors of attention and memory.

Reason, however, was not involved, hence I do not feel sure whether the results show a real mental difference between the white and coloured races. So far as physical activity is concerned, the tests with the dynamiteer indicated an optimum like that of the white race. That is, the greatest scores were made when the mean temperature was 60 degrees, which is particularly identical with the figure I've obtained from the daily piecework of hundreds of men and girls in Connecticut factories. The Ottoman for the mental tests of the Negros was almost the same as for the physical. This is due to the fact that physical activity formed part of the test, it has no significance except to emphasize the unity of the human race. If it means that the mental optimum of the black race is really greater than that of the white race, it is of great importance.

It then indicates that while the human race as a whole apparently made its chief physical evolution before the separation of the various races, the most race is the most race. rapid evolution of the white race took place after the Negroes had branched off. Thus we may suppose that man's chief physical evolution occurred in a fairly warm region, not tropical, but like Mesopotamia or Northern Africa as they are today. Then the Negro race split off from the others and moved southward. Before the epoch when the severe glacial climate caused Mesopotamia and the Mediterranean region to be as cold and stormy as northwestern Europe now is, we may suppose that the Negro was in the sheltered climate of southern Arabia or of Africa, south of the Sahara.

Meanwhile, the ancestors of the world's most progressive races underwent further evolution. That evolution was largely mental. Its result was to enlarge man's mental powers enormously. At the same time, he acquired a peculiar adaptation whereby his mind is stimulated by much colder weather than that which is most helpful for his body. Thus, his problem today is to avoid harm to his body, and yet live where the climate is cool enough to stimulate his mind. The difference between the mental and physical optima, by no means explains all of man's adaptation to climate. Humidity is of great importance. Glans over figures aged 19. Notice that in every case, curved lines or isoprax separating the different health conditions convert somewhat toward the left.

In eight cases at a 12, some of them are actually closed on the left at this level of optimum temperature. This is important. It means that at the most favorable temperatures, a very high degree of moisture, that is, a relative humidity of about 80% of day and night together, is the most favorable. Moreover, dry weather increases the death rate, as appears from the day in which the shading becomes lighter on the left side of many of the diagrams. Even at high temperatures, very dry air is bad, as may be seen in figures 10, 13, 18 and others. Damp war-air is also harmful, as everyone knows, and as appears in figures 11 and 12. It is surprising, however, to see how much less harm is done by warm damp air than by warm dry air. I confess that this is not seen reasonable.

It seems to go counter to our ordinary experience, yet it is scarcely possible to question the reliability of our diagrams, for they are based on the official records of nearly 9 million deaths and on the official figures of the Weather Bureau of some of the greatest countries. When we examine the lower parts of figures aged to 19, the bad effect of dry air becomes even more surprising. Notice how the lower isoprax curved downward to the right in almost every diagram. Take figure 9, for example. At a mean temperature of 30 degrees and a relative humidity of 70%, the deaths are 35% more than the normal. At the same temperature, but with the humidity of 90%, the deaths are only 15% above the normal.

A gain of 20%. Notice the same feature in the other diagrams. Figures 10, 14, 16, 18 and 19. In cold weather, dry air seems to be exceedingly harmful. Only in southern Italy, as appears in figure 11, does there seem to be little difference in the effect of moist and dry air in winter. Southern Japan likewise seems to show the same condition, for their dry winter weather does no more harm than moist. As I have shown elsewhere, the apparent effect of dryness cannot be due to the season of which the weather happens to be dry.

If we compare the dry January's with the wet januaries of the same temperature at specific places such as New York, Chicago, San Francisco or elsewhere, we find that the dry are systematically less helpful. The same is true if we compare the wet and dry February's or marches. Neither can the wind be the cause of the many deaths, for when we compare the most windy Januaries or February's and so forth with the least windy, we find by no means such a difference as when we compare wet and dry. The only satisfactory explanation of the harmful effect of dry air in winter seems to be that our houses are heated. Northern Italy and southern Japan, the two places where dry winter air does no harm,

are also the only two where their houses are not hated in winter. At temperatures from 65 degrees to 70 degrees, such a prevail in our houses in winter, dry air is harmful, as is clearly evident in most of the diagrams. In figure 14, which represents the dry interior of the United States, a relative humidity of less than 30% increases the death rate, by at least 10% above what prevails when the relative humidity is 70% percent or higher. In winter when we heat the outside air from near the freezing point to about 70 degrees, we give our houses of climate as dry as that are the driest parts

of the continental interior. Such dryness through in summer causes an increase of at least 10% in the death rate, as appears in figure 14. It causes similar harm to health elsewhere in winter, as appears in the lower parts of most of our climographs. Apparently during the long processes of man's evolution, he's become adapted not only to certain strictly limited conditions of temperature, but also to a relatively high degree of humidity. This is not complete the tale of climatic adjustments, but it shows how extraordinarily delicate is man's adjustment to the area in which he lives. It proves that air is the first necessity of life, and also that changes in the air must be the most potent causes of changes in human health.

End of Section 5 6 of World Power and Evolution by Osworth Huntingdon This is a Librivox according or Libbyvox according from the public domain For more information on a volunteer Please visit Librevox.org

Recorded by Leon Harvey Chapter 6 The Importance of Variety It is not enough to understand man's extremely sensitive adjustment to temperature and humidity We must understand the effect of changes A variable climate

but as utterly different effects from a uniform climate even though both have the same average temperature and humidity Changes in the atmosphere appear not only to cause the fluctuations of business which we have been studying but to be among the most potent forces in making some nations strong and others weak. When I began the present investigation and discovered

how much harm is done by our cold northern winters I reasoned that in places with uniform climates like southern Italy and California, where the winters differ only a little from the summers, the condition of health at the two seasons must be nearly the same. The difference between summer and winter, however, is relatively far greater in the mild climates than in those that are more rigorous. In northern France, figures 8, for example, the range from the lowest death rate, the highest, is only about 25%.

In southern Italy, figure 11, it amounts to 45%. A United States similar contrast prevail. A rigorous northeastern section, figure 12, where the temperature for a month at a time may average 20 degrees, shows the difference of only 20% between the best months and the worst. On the other hand, Southern California, figure 17, where the coldest month does not average below 50 degrees, shows the difference of over 25% between summer and winter. A comparison of individual cities such as Boston and Los Angeles or New York and San Francisco emphasizes this contrast still more strongly. So too does a comparison of the French diagrams. Figures 8 and 9, with those of the eastern and central United States, figures 12 to 14.

In the milder French climate, the lines of the diagram are closer together and the contrast between the health of summer and winter much greater than the more rigorous climate of the northern United States. If southern Italy were the only place to show a high death rate in winter, we might attribute to lack of care and to poor medical service. When Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle follows suit, however, such an explanation is untenable. The real explanation of the unexpectedly favourable conditions in rigorous climates seems to be that the rigorous climates are also highly variable. In civilisation and climate, I have described a series of studies of factory operatives and students which bear on this point. Both mental and physical work appear to be

stimulated by changes in temperature. In general, if today's temperature is the same as yesterday's, people do not work so well as when there is a change. When winter and summer are averaged together, a rise of temperature seems to be slightly stimulating to physical activity, although it is distinctly harmful to mental. A fall of temperature, on the contrary, appears to be stimulating under all conditions. Although an extreme fall is not so good as one of the more moderate dimensions. I have now tested this conclusion by means of the records of daily deaths in New York City from 1877 to 1884. These deaths number approximately 300,000, and the number of days concerned is approximately 3,000. Hence the body of data on which we show based our conclusions is large

enough to give thoroughly reliable results. These results agree with those obtained from the study of students, but fail to show any fable effect corresponding to the slight stimulus which rise of temperature seems to exert upon factory operatives. All three types of investigation, however, namely studies of deaths, factory operatives and students agree in indicating that changes of temperature are in general a stimulus, and this is the main point. The years 1877 to 894 were chosen for investigation because extraordinary as may seem. Those eight years, years with the foreword that followed them are the only ones for which accurate daily records of deaths appear to be available in any American city. At present, not even the weekly records in most places are accurate.

Instead of tapulating and publishing the actual deaths during a given week or months, the reported deaths are given. In New York, for example, the physicians who send in the reports are allowed by law an interval of 36 hours between the hour of death and the hour of filing the reports. In practice, this is extended to three or four days. No record of daily deaths is kept, and the deaths which are prohibited those of a given week really belong in part to that week, and in part to the last half of the preceding week. It is much to be regretted that exact records of the deaths each day are not available for all parts of the country, for, as we shall soon see, such records are of the highest importance. With the county machines that are now used in large cities, it would take a clerk only three or four days to get out a used daily record, even in New York. Some of the results of a study of the daily deaths in New York City from 1877 to 1884 appear in figure 20. The figures at the top indicate the number of degrees by which the temperature of a given day differed from that of the day before.

Thus the left-hand side of the diagram pertains to days. when there was a sharp drop of temperature, and the right side to those when warm waves occurred. The figures on the right and left margins indicate the amount, by which the deaths on a given to exceed or fell short of those occurring on the previous day. The figures have been inverted,

so that good conditions of health may be represented by high positions and bad health by low. Since the average number of deaths per day was not far from 100, the figures in the margins are almost equivalent to percentages. The four dotted lines represent the conditions during the four seasons, beginning with the three months from October to December. The little figures in the body of the diagram near the zero lines show the number of days on which each point in the various lines is based. Thus to begin in the upper left-hand corner, during the months of October to December in the eight years under discussion,

there were only four days when the main temperature was more than 25 degrees lower than on the preceding day. On those four days the deaths increased by about 3.5% over what they had been on the preceding days. So extreme a drop in temperature is not good. During the same period, two days showed a drop of from 21 degrees to 25 degrees and their death rate average 12% less than on the preceding days. Next come nine days with a drop of 18 degrees to 20 degrees and a decline of more than 5% in the death rate.

The 19 days with a drop of 15 degrees to 60%. 17 degrees in temperature and of over 8% in the deaths. Notice that when the temperature does not change, there is almost no change in the death rate, while when it rises, the deaths also increase. Figure 20 is perhaps the most significant feature of this whole book. In spite of some irregularity due to epidemics and other accidental causes, each of the four curves has a marked downward tendency from left to right. The tendency is strongest in summer when the three days with a drop of 15 degrees to 17 degrees in temperature show a decline of about 40% in the death rate, while the 8 days with a rise of 9 degrees to 10 degrees suffered an increase of 17% in the deaths.

This means that there were only 60 deaths when the temperature fell most rapidly, while there were 117 or nearly twice as many when it rose most rapidly. In spring the difference between a rise and a fall of temperature is not quite so great, but we take the 9 days with a drop of 13 degrees to 14 degrees. we find an average of only 81 deaths, minus 19%, against 114 on the 9 days with a similar rise of temperature. In general, the average slope of the four lines diminishes in proportion to the temperature, that is, changes of temperature produce the most marked effect in summer, a very strong

but less marked effect in the spring, someone less in autumn, and less in winter. As yet we cannot say positively what this means. Two possibilities suggest themselves. It's a lot of resistance in summer, just as we have found to be the case in mild climates when these are compared with those where changes are abundant. It's a well-known fact that the variability of the temperature from day to day is much less in summer than in winter. The other possibility is that change of temperature has less effect in winter than in summer,

because in cold weather we protect ourselves from the outside air by means of our houses. The fact that we are dealing with sick people and not with those in good health makes our results all the more remarkable. Remember that sick people do not go out of doors, and that the deaths which we are studying occurred before the value of fresh air has begun to be realized as it is today. Nevertheless, the sick people felt at once the effect of a change of even a single degree in the mean temperature. They felt it in the winter as well as in summer. Perhaps this means that a change in temperature is accompanied by some other change, perhaps electrical, and that the other change is the important factor. However that may be, there seems no escape from the conclusion

that the slightest change of temperature finds its immediate reflection in man's health. Many of us have wondered why we have spring fever when the first warm days arrive. We know that at such times the temperature is much more favourable than formally. Why then should we feel a sense of lassitude? The answer is that the effect of a constant temperature is very different from the effect of a change to that temperature. An average of 64 degrees for a day and night together is the most favourable but a drop from 75 degrees to 64 degrees is highly stimulating and caused the decline of perhaps 10% in the death rate. A similar rise on the other hand from 53 degrees to 64 degrees causes of corresponding increase in the death rate. The reader cannot too sharply distinguish

between the effect of mean temperature and the effect of change of temperature. The conditions seem to be closely unitalous to those of baths. The first plunged to a cold bath is highly stimulating, almost everyone is benefited. But what happens if the bath is prolonged? Unless people take vigorous exercise, there is a prompt reaction which soon brings on a chill and may end seriously. But the hot bath the effect is the reverse. The first plunge brings on a sense of lassitude, a desire to lie still and do nothing. So long as the bath remains hot, this feeling persists, and if the bath is prolonged, one finds one's willpower declining. It becomes harder and harder to summon up the decision to take a cold douche. Thus it happens that even in winter,

a drop in the temperature of the air is stimulating even to sick people. If the temperature remains low, however, the good effect speedily passes and the death rate rises. In study in figure 20, one is led to inquire whether a total effect of falling temperature is more beneficial than the total harm done by a rise. The answer is that the two are bound to be equal. Otherwise, the death rate would keep declining until it fell to zero, or to keep rising until everyone died. This sounds at first as if the good and the harm of a viable climate balanced each other, thus leaving people in the same condition that would prevail if the temperature remained constant. This is by no means the case, however, as appears from the following table,

based on the daily deaths in New York City from 1877 to 1884. In preparing these figures we have first largely gotten rid of the effect of daily changes by taking the average number of deaths for overlapping periods of five days, that is, the first to the fifth of the month, second to the sixth, the third to the seventh, and so forth. Generally, such a five-day period contains some days with a rise of temperature, and some with the four, so the two tend to balance each other. Then we have divided each month into two halves,

and from each half have selected the five successive days, showing the best health, and the five showing the worst. Finally, we have calculated the average amount by which the temperature changed from day to day in the 10 days ending with the middle of each 5-day period. This sounds complicated, but all that the reader need to do is to notice whether the figures in the table are plus or minus. If they are plus, it means that periods of unusually variable temperature preceded those of unusually good health. If they are minus, it means that the variability of the weather was less than usual before the periods of good health. The table is displayed on the page, percentages by which the variability in the temperature from day to day and 10-day periods preceding the best health differs from the variability in similar periods preceding the worst health, smoothed. The table indicates that on a whole, variability of temperature is a decided stimulus.

Follow the figures through from January to December. From January to last of May, there is an almost steady rise from 2.3% to 6.0%. Periods of good health evidently follow times when the variability is above the normal for the season, while the worst health follows times when the variability is less than the normal. This tendency increases until the end of May. That is, it is at a maximum when the temperature is close to the optimum. Then during June and July, the value of changes in the weather declines. This is natural, for though there is much less variation of day-to-day in hot weather than in cold,

But hottest days are included in the periods when the weather is subject to the greatest changes. Nevertheless, even in hot weather, people's health is better when there is much change from day to day than when there is little. Of course, in the New York climate, there are never any long periods with practically no changes of temperature, so we cannot tell how much greater the value of variability would appear if we could compare people who live where there are no daily changes with those who live where there are many. Passing on to August, we find that as soon as the hottest weather is passed, the value of daily changes increases to the maximum for the whole year. That is because the variable periods are the ones in which cool waves begin to be prominent. Then during September, the value of variability appears to decline, and from the middle of October to the middle of December, the most variable weather is not quite so favourable as that which is more nearly uniform. The reason is not apparent.

It should be noted, however, that this is the time when the people's health is at its best, as is evident from the New York curve in figure 7. Perhaps when other causes combine to reduce good health, variability ceases for a while to be of so much importance. The figures with the minor sign in the table are so small that they might almost as well be zeros. However this may be, there seems to be strong evidence that for 10 months out of 12, the health of New York is better after periods of high variability than after those of relative uniformity. When people become accustomed to a mild uniform climate, such as that of southern Italy or southern California, their power to resist variations in the weather declines, and they suffer from slight changes much more than the people-variable climates suffer from large ones.

The practical applications of the preceding discussion are almost innumerable. I shall content myself with two or three samples. The study of the daily deaths in New York suggest, that our medical practice may well be radically revised. Many physicians have of late recognized a value of open-air treatment. Its potency in causes of tuberculosis is universally recognized. Freeman goes so far as to say that the low temperature is the most effective cure for a large number of diseases and perhaps for almost all.

He cites cases where soldiers with infected and putrefying wounds were placed out of doors in cold weather with only thin sheets of gauze over the raw flesh. A phenomenally rapid recovery followed in many cases. In his own practice, Freeman states that in cases of perpetual septicemia, he has succeeded in reducing the mortality 50% by placing his patients in the open air in winter. Many other similar cases might be cited, yet the general medical practice is still to keep patients in a relatively high temperature and not expose them to sudden changes. A comparison of our results in New York with those obtained by Freeman and with the general

practice and respect due tuberculosis raises the query whether it changes rather than low temperature may not be the effective agent. An ordinary tuberculosis patient sleeps out of doors, comes into the house to dress and have breakfast. Out of perhaps two hours in the house the patient goes out again to stay till noon. Then he comes in again for luncheon, goes out once more, comes in for supper and again goes out. In addition to this, most patients go back and forth at other times. Moreover, the mere fact of being out of doors means that the patient not only has good air, a fact of the highest importance, but is subjected to far greater changes of temperature than would be the case if the same amount of time was spent in the house.

Even the modern practice of heliotherapy, where the patients are exposed to the sunlight and are gradually toughened until they can be comfortable out of doors with practically no clothing even in winter may owe much to its efficiency to changes of temperature. Certainly the sun falling on the skin causes rapid changes of temperature, for its effect is very different from that which is produced as soon as a patient turns and brings his body into the shade. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the supposed healing effect of sunlight is at a maximum when the skin is tanned to the colour of leather and has thus acquired the power to keep out

the actinic or chemical rays of the sun, which are usually taken to be the effective agent. At such times, however, the patient has become so hardened to the air that he can and does endure the most extreme and rapid changes of temperature without discomfort. Perhaps these changes are as effective as the sunlight. Apparently, one of the best possible safeguards of health is constant changes of temperature. We need to return to the conditions under which the evolution of our unclothed ancestors took place. In places where healthy paperwork, as well as in hospitals, the ideal practice of the world of the world of the world's would seem to be to keep the temperature constantly varying. The extent of the variations must of course depend upon the circumstances,

but even patients who are very sick can usually stand a sudden sharp drop, provided the return to warm conditions is speedy enough. If we have rightly interpreted the New York figures, such variability will strengthen most patients throughout their illness. Then when the actual crisis of the disease arrives, it would seem as if the patient should be subjected to a sudden drop attempt, at just the time when he most needs a stimulant. I know that this sounds extreme, yet what else can be the meaning of the fact that the days when the temperature falls most in New York are accompanied by an improvement of 10%, 20%, or even 40% of the death rate.

I know too that different diseases may act differently, and that this whole matter needs far more thorough investigation than has yet been possible. Physicians are the only ones who carry on this investigation. and already some of them are at work on it. The principles discussed in this chapter enable us to answer another important practical question. What climate is really the best? I've discussed this question in civilization and climate, and the answer they are given is strongly reinforced by our studies of the death rate.

We have seen that a mean temperature at 64 degrees, a mean humidity of about 80%, and frequent changes of temperature are the most desirable conditions for purely physical health. We have seen that in factory work where physical effort is the chief item, but where mental activity takes a certain share, the best conditions seem to be the same, except that the optimum temperature should apparently average about 60 degrees Fahrenheit for day and night together instead of 64 degrees.

Finally, for purely mental work, the conditions of humidity and variability should apparently be about the same as in the other cases, but the main temperature should be much lower, perhaps 40 degrees. The only way to get all these conditions is to live in a climate which has several frosty but not cold months in winter, several warm but not hot months in summer, and a constant succession of storms at all seasons. No part of the world fulfills all these conditions. England is admirable in temperature and is a great deal of variety, although no quite enough.

New Zealand in many ways rivals England as a candidate for first place. The north-eastern United States is variable enough, but as winters are too cold and summer is too hot. germany falls in the same class with the united states but in both regions the nervous stimulus seems to be too great the pacific coast of the united states especially in the northern portions has an admirable range of temperature but not of enough variety further discussion at this point is unnecessary the reader can apply the principles for himself since mankind is obliged to live in all sorts of climates one of the greatest problems of civilization is to provide an artificial climate that shall be as nearly ideal as possible I can't illustrate this point better than by discussing two experiments which form part of the largest and most careful attempts that has yet been made to discover just what kind of artificial climate is most favorable. The experiments were carried on by the New York State Ventilation Commission under the chairmanship of Professor C.E.A. Winslow. They were placed by a group of the most competent experts to be found in the American metropolis. they were conducted with the utmost accuracy and without any prepositions as to what results ought to be found.

In one of the experiments, a class of 43 school children was divided into two groups of approximately the same size. The greatest pains were taken to see that the average mental ability of the groups was equal. Then from December to March, one group was kept in a schoolroom where the conditions of ventilation and temperature were as perfect as possible, but where the air had the ordinary dryness characteristic of our winters. The relative humidity averaged 28.7%. The other group was kept in a similar room except that the air was humidified and the relative humidity averaged 42.2%. In both rooms the temperature averaged about 67 degrees.

The teachers divided the care of the two groups, each teaching certain subjects in both groups. At the end of the month, the rooms were interchanged. who had been in the dry room went to what had been the damp room, which now became the dry room. Thus while the conditions of the air remained unchanged for each group, the rooms were interchanged so that there was no chance for one set of pupils to have an advantage because of being in a room with a better outlook. The two groups were tested at the beginning and entered the experimental period by examinations, lasting in all seven hours, but recovering several days. The children's progress was measured by the difference between the score made by each pupil in a given test the first and second times.

Measureed by this standard, the children in the dry rooms, contrary to what should be expected, made a very slightly better showing than the others, although their superiority was not enough to be significant. Thus, they seemed good ground for the conclusion that a difference of about 13% in relative humidity does not make any appreciable difference in the mental activity of school children. The obvious inference is that it will not pay to attempt to improve the health of the community by dampening the air in our dry winter houses. This conclusion is at variance with the lesson taught by our study of millions of deaths. In trying to find some explanation of this anomaly, it occurred to me that there may have been a real but unnoticed difference in the two rooms because dry air loses its heat faster than moist air.

Hence the dry rooms may have been more variable than the air. others. Through the courtesy of the chairman of the Ventilation Commission, I was able to test this by means of the original thermograph sheets from the two rooms. Dividing the 60 available sheets into four consecutive sections of 15 days each, I found that the actual temperature and the variability were as follows. The table is displayed on the page with four rows comparing the actual temperature, excessive dry or wet, average change of temperature per hour, and the excess of dry overwet by percentage. This little table shows that at the beginning of the experiment,

the average temperature of the two rooms was the same. As the experiment progressed, the temperature of the two rooms became more different, until in the last period the dry room was 2.1 degrees warmer than the wet. Thus, judging by the results obtained from a study of deaths and of factory operatives, the dry room had two disadvantages. It was too dry, and its temperature was too high. The variability of its temperature, however, grew steadily more favourable.

From having a variability 18% less than that in the wet room at the beginning of the experiment, it changed to a variability 15% greater in the second period, 29% in the third and 54% in the final. Thus the greater variability seems to have overcome the handicap, both of dryness, have too higher temperature. we conclude that this experiment is inconclusive so far as humidity is concerned but furnishes weighty evidence as to the value of a variable temperature. It is to be hoped that further experiments as to the air of school rooms may be carried on. If this is done, strict attention should be paid to variability and the humidity in the

wet room should be much greater and the temperature lower than in the experiment described above. In that case I feel confident that humidity will be found to a really effect on mental activity. The importance both of the mean temperature and of the viability is shown by another experiment carried on by the Ventilation Commission in cooperated with the Bureau of Child Hygiene of the Department of Health of New York City. During the period from February 19 to April 8, 1916, records of respiratory diseases were kept in eight New York schools having 58 classrooms and 2,541 children. While from November 4, 1916,

to January 27, 1917. Similar records were kept in 12 schools, having 76 rooms and 2,992 children. A corpse of trained nurses under the supervision of physicians examined the children daily and looked upon those who were absent. The rooms were divided into three groups. One, cool rooms, where the windows were kept open as much as possible, and the temperature averaged below 60 degrees most of the time. moderately warm rooms having no ventilation except by means of windows 3. Moderally warm rooms provided with artificial ventilation by means of fans. When we divide these rooms into three groups according to temperature,

as has been done by Ms. Baker in her report on the experiment, we get the following result. A table is displayed on the page. Evidently the warm rooms were much worse than the cooler rooms. In fact, the amount of sickness in Group C was almost twice as great, as in the rooms that average 66.6 degrees, that is Group B. The cooler rooms, Group A, were not quite so favourable as the middle Group B, but children are clearly much better off in such rooms than the ones averaging 69 degrees or more.

It is striking to see that the best health is found in the group of rooms, where the temperature comes nearest to the ideal, that is, 64 degrees. Another comparison of these rooms is still more significant. Miss Baker groups them as follows. A table is displayed on the page. The rooms of Group 1 had an average temperature below 60 degrees, and were apparently a little too cool for children dressed in the ordinary fashion. Yet their record is far better than that of Group 3,

the warmer rooms, with the most approved system of fan ventilation, it should be noted here that no attention was paid to the dress of the children. that is in selecting rooms for the different types of ventilation. The dress and social or physical condition of the children played no part. In all three groups of rooms, the children were simply the ordinary type found in the average sections of New York. This fact lends added importance to the contrast between groups 2 and 3. In both of these the temperature average at the same, approximately 68 degrees. The only difference was in the system of ventilation.

In both groups the air was perfectly fresh. In one case however, it came in through the windows. During the first year no attempt was made even to prevent drafts, but in the second year, boards were placed at the basis of the windows, so that the air did not blow directly on the children. Yet in both years this kind of ventilation proved much better than the other. In the rooms of Group 3, fresh air was taken from outside, just as in Group 2. But instead of entering the rooms directly, it was heated and then blowing

in by means of fans. In fact, the system of ventilation was what is commonly supposed to be ideal. No drafts, no sudden changes, no chance for the air to stagnate. Yet there were 30% more absences from respiratory diseases than in the rooms with window of ventilation, and over twice as many of the children in attendance had colds or similar elements. A striking difference cannot have been due to the quality of the air, to its main temperature, or to its humidity. It must apparently have been due to its variability.

We try to keep our winter temperature as uniform as possible. In doing so, we commit a great folly. What we want is not uniformity, but variability. If we could live all the time in air with the right variability, as well as the right temperature and humidity, who knows what we might accomplish. Our bodies, our judgment and our wills would all be stronger than now. Our death rate would diminish,

and our happiness be correspondingly increased. Moreover, the urban flow of business And the stress and strain of social life Might become less wearying and harmful Who can tell what more might be accomplished Our best moments are those when our bodies feel strong And our wills congregious Note

For further discussion of the air in our houses in winter And of the methods of pertaining ideal conditions See appendices E and F End of Section 6 Section 7 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is the Libby Vox According, or Libby Vox Accordings on the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Librevox.org.

Recorded by Leon Harvey Chapter 7. The Voyage of Evolution Food, drink, air. These, as we have seen, are the three primary needs of life. Probably three-fourths of all men's efforts are directed toward obtaining food. That is why food figures so largely in all discussions of health and economics. Effort is also required in order that the right kind of drink may be available in proper quantities. Therefore we spend faster sums for waterworks and count the liquor question as one of our greatest problems.

But air, we have been warned to say, is different. If food were free as air, most of mankind would sit around to do nothing a large part of the time. Either toad the vast majority of mankind have thought of air chiefly as something against which we require protection. For this protection we have gone to vast labour in order that we may have closed in shelter. As civilization has advanced, these items have become of growing importance. Although the world as a whole may devote three-fourths of its energy to attaining food, Mrs. Richards, in her little book, The Cost of Living, estimates that among sensible people and comfortable, but not affluent circumstances, about 20% of the income is spent for rent,

3 to 5% for fuel, and 15% for clothing. Food, on the other hand, should require 25% of the total income. Thus a day among people of the kind who will read this book, the amount spent for protection against the air averages about one and one half times as much as is spent for food. But remember that in ordinary discussions of domestic economy, drink is counted with food. Our bills for water do not amount to 1% of an ordinary income,

and all other drinks are reckoned as part of our food bills. Thus it appears that intelligent people are spending 50% more for protection from the air than for both food and drink together. The fact that the most expensive dresses often afford the least protection is neither here nor there. Neither does champagne at $5 a bottle or a fancy dessert at $1.00. a plate supply as much drink or food as could be attained for a scent in the form of water or potatoes. The fact is that as man advances in civilization, the percentage of efforts which he spends upon food and drinks steadily diminishes, while what he spends on air increases.

If the reader is inclined to doubt this, let him ask himself why people spend large sums to go south in winter, or to the seashore and mountains in summer. Is it not for the air? How few people would even consider the plan of going to a summer or winter resort, no matter how fine the scenery, if the air was exactly the same as at home? Why do we do this? Because at last we are realizing that air is not merely something against which we require protection, but something which has the most far-reaching effect upon health and upon all kinds of success in the work of life. And now in this book, we have seen that air is the great variable in man's environment. Its variations, not only from place to place and season to season, but also from day to day, have far more effect upon his health and work than any other factor, or perhaps, than all,

other factors combined. These variations are at the root of all sorts of differences in the capacity of different countries, and also of all sorts of changes in the course of business, and hence in politics and other great affairs. In view of the extreme importance of the air, it will pay us to turn back to the point to the past and acquire how man happened to become so delicately adapted to one particular kind of climatic environment. How do the air come to control his health to an even greater degree than do food and drink? Why do his attempts to adjust himself to the air become of every increasing importance as he rises

in the scale of evolution and of civilization? In order to answer these questions, let us go back to early geological times and review man's voyage of evolution. Long before man's earliest ancestors had become different from the beasts, the whole world of life had realized the necessity of air. Even the creatures that inhabit the water can live only by taking from it the dissolved air. Otherwise, the chemical activities, which are the basis of all life, come promptly to an end. Before these primitive animals could give rise to higher forms, however, it was necessary that they should pass through a series of crises. Each of these crises was a step forward towards this estate of man. Each had left its impress not only upon the animal world, but upon the human race.

A few of these crises, such as the development of vertebrates from invertebrates, were due to causes other than climate, but most were directly from the conditions of the air which we call climate. Let us consider three of the chief crisis. The first was the emergence of the earliest vertebrates from the water. This was a most momentous step, for only in the highly varied environment, to the land, does brain power develop rapidly. Creatures like the seal, the whale, and the manatee, which have gone back to the water from the land, fall behind in the mental race, for they are not sufficiently stimulated. The second great crisis was the change which caused certain forms of life to become warm-blooded.

This not only enabled man's animal ancestors to continue their vital activities at all seasons, and in almost all parts of the world, but it gave rise to the close bond between mother and child, has been the greatest of all factors in promoting the higher qualities of love and altruism. The third great crisis was a separation of man, the two-handed, two-footed, big-brained creatures from his four-handed and smaller-brained relatives. This was the time when mental qualities evolved most rapidly. Therefore it interests us, most of all, because the conditions which foster the evolution of our minds are those which today stimulate them most strongly.

It is perhaps a misnomer to speak of these as crisis. For each of these three steps in evolution required a long time for its consummation. Yet as we look backward into the dim visitors of the past, the steps are so foreshortened that they appear like genuine crisis. They are, as it were, great slopes in a terrace plain. For long periods the life of the world was confined to the waters, then doing a relatively brief period, as geology counts time, there came a transformation. The highest forms that inhabited those ancient seas, that is, the fishes, gave rice where stock which left the water and made it home on the land.

Then our ancestors, for such they were, moved once more across the vast plain, rising here and there over smaller terraces, until at last they began to climb to the warm-blooded condition. Another vast stretch of plain and minor terraces brought them to the final steep upward slope, as based our ancestors were animals, added to its top they were men, but have we yet? reach the top? More likely we are now upon the very steepest part of the terrace. Either the day we have climbed upward because some unknown force kept driving us. Now we are conscious of ourselves and are able to direct our movements. It's for us to say whether we will climb straight up or whether, like many of the creatures of the past, we will wander this way and that, and perhaps fail to be among the chosen few who finally emerge at the highest level. Let us consider how each of these three great cities impressed upon our ancestors the supreme importance of the

air. Each, as has been applied, was associated with profound climatic changes. There was drought, for instance, which apparently drove our fish-like ancestors out from the water upon the land and into the air. There are today examples of types that are undergoing just such a transformation. For example, the so-called lungfishes live in tropical regions where long dry season causes many of the pools and streams to dry up. When this happens, the lung fish borrows into the mud and makes for itself a slimy chamber where it lies coiled up for half. the year. Like all other forms of life it must have air, as it cannot get this from the water, it builds a little tube from its mouth to the door of its chamber, thus it actually

breathes. Dry balls are mud containing such fish have often been brought to Europe. When soaked in water, the fish emerges as lively as ever. Such fishes make their first appearance in the early geological era known as the Devonian. How far back this was may be judged by a reference to figure 21 which shows the names of the geological periods, the conditions of climate, and some of the chief crises in the evolution of life. In the Devonian period, the former moist climate gave place to aridity. Throughout large parts of the earth, vast deserts prevailed, as is evident from great deposits of red sandstone. In the early stages of this desiccation, a great advantage was possessed by those freshwater fish which were able to act like the modern

lungfish. As the climate became drier, forms which were highly developed in this direction, were the only ones that were able to survive in many regions. Moreover, those fish which could crawl to new pools also had a great advantage, for when a strain became low, they could move down its bed from their own diminished pool to a larger one. Today in Ceylon, the climbing perch is able to use its fins in this way. Thus the dryness of the Devonian period caused the evolution of legs as well as lungs, and there arose the class of animals known as amphibians. For millions of years, amphibians were the highest type of life. Little by little their lungs and legs became better developed until the creatures seemed to belong wholly to the land. Nevertheless, they still returned to the

water to lay their eggs. Their young passed through at fish-like stage, such as we see not only in tadpoles, but in the impureers of man and the higher animals. They had not yet taken the final step to the top of the great terrace where the land animals dwell. Finally, however, in the latter part of the period known as the Mississippian, there came another time of climatic stress. Abedity once before became so pronounced that in the large areas the amphibiums cannot return to the water to lay their eggs, hence many types perished. Only those persisted which became true reptiles whose eggs are able to hatch upon the land. The crisis had at last been withered. Not till millions of years later did the next great step in evolution occur.

That step was surrised the warm-blooded mammals. We do not find their fossil record until the last time known as Upper Triassic, but they must have originated farther back, apparently in the Permian. The date of the Peruvian period is estimated as anywhere from 10 million to 200 million years ago. The break between their types of life before and after this great crisis is the most profound in the history of evolution. It is therefore highly important to find that this was also the time of the greatest changes

of climate. Fast glaciers descended to sea level within 30 degrees of the equator. Perhaps at no other time during the evolution of man's ancestors has there been such a succession of cold, stormy glacial epochs alternating sharply with mild interglacial epochs. Figure 21 is displayed on the previous page, the march of geological time after lull. Let us consider the effect of such climatic stress upon other forms of life as well as upon our ancestors. Previous to the permae period, the vegetation of all parts of the earth's service, including even the far north, was much alike. In general, the lands were covered with forests, averaging perhaps 40 feet in height, but with some trees tiring 100 feet.

Shusher describes it as a forest of rapid growth, of soft and even spongy woods, in which evergreen trees with comparatively small needle-like leaves, were prominent. Associated with these were thickets of rushes, also a very rapid growth, which in habit resembled modern cane breaks and bamboo thickets. Here in there stood majestic tree like ferns, while many smaller ferns and similar plants thrived in the shady places or climbed among the trees. Flowers of a certain sort were sparingly present, but of insignificant size and unattractive colour. Sports took the place of seas to such a degree that when the trees and ferns were liberating them, the entire forest was covered with the greenish yellow or brown dust. During the permeant period, the sharp transitions from cold to warm or from moisture dry caused these ancient forests to dust.

die out. Conifers, much like those of today, came into existence. Seeds largely took the place of spores. These changes were accompanied by a general reduction in their size and variety of the plants, and by a tendency for them to become hardier and have thicker and less ornate leaves. During the great climatic changes of the Permian, animal life suffered an even greater transformation than plant life. For example, previous to that time, the insects had been of truly astonishing size. And of the 400 forms known, in the early and middle parts of the Pennsylvania period which preceded the Permian. The smallest had wings over a third of an inch long.

The wings of more than 20 species were six inches as long. Six attained to nearly eight inches and three were giants at 12 inches. Imagine a spore dusted forest full of insects as large as crows. The cold and changeable climate of Permian times apparently caused the extinction of all these forms. place was taken by smaller species resembling those of today. Moreover, the very nature of insects was profoundly modified by the introduction of metamorphosis. That is, where there had formerly been merely a gradual growth from the egg to the adult, there was now a growth from egg to maggot, or caterpillar, then a resting period, and finally a transformation of maggot to fly or

from caterpillar to butterfly. At the same time, the insects acquired a power to become dormant and thus persist for months at a time. All these changes apparently were due to the necessity for adapting themselves to sudden periods of drought or cold during the time of growth in summer, or to the necessity for enduring long severe winters. Thus the climatic variability of the Permian period not only caused a remodeling of the Earth's garment of vegetation, but introduced a unique stage into the life history of insects. For our present purpose, another change is far more important. At this time, apparently, there occurred one of the most vital steps in the Everettus of the Everettus. evolution of our direct ancestors, the mammals. Extreme aridity and low temperature were both characteristic of a certain epochs of the Pyramian period. Among the more

progressive types of land animals, abridity has a tendency to accelerate development. It places a premium upon the power to travel, and especially upon speed. As the Lull puts it, not only a food and water scarce and far between, but the strife between pursuer and pursued becomes intensified. Neither can afford to be our distance the other. This means increased metabolism, which in turn generally implies not only greater motive powers but higher temperature. With increasing cold, a premium would be placed upon such creatures as could maintain their activity beyond the limits of short-eating summers, and this could be accomplished only by the development of some mechanism whereby a relatively constant

temperature could be maintained within the animal, regardless of external conditions. In other words, there are rose warm-blooded animals whose temperature was more or less independent of the surrounding air, instead of awrying with it, as is the case in cold-blooded animals. Among mammals, this led the production of the young within the body of the mother, instead of from eggs in which the mother took little or no interest after they were laid. Among birds, it forced the mother to care for the eggs if they were to be hatched. Thus the relation of mother and child became firmly established.

The latter development of this relation has been the chief source of all, that is best in mankind. We must not suppose that during the climatic stress of the premium, the mammals emerged full-fledged. The first warm-blooded creatures were not warm in the sense that we are. Their temperature varied through wide limits, just as now it is true of infants, even when they are perfectly healthy. Nor were the young born alive at first, for eggs continue to be laid, as is today the case with some of the most primitive mammals of Australia. Moreover, the early mammals were but a feeble folk. The reptiles were the great lords of creation, while the mammals were tiny little beasts

skulking and out-of-the-way corners. Not for long ages did their rise to dominance in the lowland regions where the great reptiles lorded it. Among the hills, however, or elsewhere in safe retreats, they were slowly evolving two of their vital characteristics, namely a uniform temperature and a large brain. Figure 22 is displayed on the previous page, the extinction of mammalian genera in North America and Europe. Once more we must skip millions of years. The mammals have grown in size and variety until they range from the mouse to the mammoth.

They have ousted the reptiles from the best parts of the earth. They have taken to the air with the wings of the bat. They have gone back to the sea with the whale. They have learned to run like the antelope, to borrow like the mole, and to climb trees like the squirrel. The limbs have become hoofs, claws, wings, flippers and hands. The age of mammals has come to its epiphany. Then, as in perimen times, there once more comes a widespread period of climatic stress,

the last glacial period. A new element enters into evolution, for at last man appears, and intelligence becomes dominant. Before we consider man, let us pause for a moment to estimate how great was the change in life-wrought by the glacial period. For this purpose I have taken the table of mammalian genera in Osborne's Age of Mammals. It includes every known genus, whether living or dead. From this table, I've ascertained the number of genera which were alive from the geological periods preceding the glacial period. The number of genera has been accounted for Europe and North America separately. I have also ascertained the total number extinguished in each period and the percentage that were extinguished in an average

during each hundred thousand years. The method by which this has been done is explained in the appendix. The results of this tabulation of mammals are shown graphically in figure 22. The names of the geological periods appear at the bottom, reading from the oldest on the left to the latest on the right. The figures in the body of the diagram show the lapses of time in millions of years according to barrel scale. Thus the diagram begins about 55 million years ago. The numbers on the right showed the percentage of mammalian genera

that were extinguished per 100,000 years. Of course, new forms keep coming in to replace the old ones, so that the total number tends on the whole to increase. The rate of extinction is indicated by the solid line. If our knowledge of the past were fuller, the line would lie lower in its earlier portions. The striking fact about the line as a whole

is a sudden way in which it rises at the right-hand end. This means that during the glacial period, marked P1. The mammals were extinguished at least three times as rapidly as during the most of the millions of years that preceded. When the mammals had reached

a condition of complete dominance, they suddenly were wiped out wholesale. In North America, the whole family of horses was destroyed. The elephant tribe, including the mammoth and macedon, disappeared. The camel which had formerly been

abundant, passed away, leaving no trace save its bones. Still other great families, such as the giant beaver, the slough, the tapirs, and the so-called gliptodonts were likewise exterminated. In Europe there was a similar appalling destruction of life. Directly or indirectly, all this destruction arose from the severe climatic

escalation of the glacial period, for this one period included four great epochs. Indeed, if we include all the indirect effects of that period, we must include man's part and destroying living creatures. It was apparently the glacial period which chiefly stimulated man's mental development and cause his intelligence to dominate the earth. In recent times, his activities during a period which is but a day geologically are causing the wholesale extinction of all sorts of animals such as bearers, wolves, foxes, lynxes, weasels, buffaloes, mountain sheep and the like.

Not all the larger wild animals are gone, yet, but they are fast disappearing. Even without man's help, however, the extinction has gone on to such a degree that we may well hold up our hands in astonishment. If nature by the simple expedient of a cold, stormy period can destroy life so rapidly, can she at the same time produce new forms of equal rapidity? That is what she seems to have done in the Pyramian and in the earlier crisis when animals left the water. That is what she also did in the last glacial period.

This time, however, her infinite resourcefulness directed itself towards the revolution of intelligence, and man appeared upon the scene. though her end was so different this time as formerly, the chief agency that she employed was climate. Let us consider briefly the great outstanding fact of the last glacial period, that is, the development of the human mind. The history of early manned and the climatic changes of this period are summed up in figure 23.

At the beginning of the great climatic pulsations shown in the diagram, we do not know whether there was any such creature as man. In Java, to be sure, there has been found the top of a skull, two teeth and the thigh bone of an animal to advance to be a, too low to be a man. Volumes have been written about these few bones of the missing link. The brain of Pythicanthropus erectus erectus, or the erect ape-man, as he is called, was only half as large as that of modern man. His forehead, with its great projecting ridges above the eyes, was so low that there was

little room for the frontal lobes where self-control attention and the higher mental faculties have their seat. We do not even know whether his powers of consecutive thought enabled him to fashion any implements. He had indeed progressed much beyond the ape in intelligence, but his life was still essentially the same as that of the beasts. Not for hundreds of thousands of years was man to rise to the point where brain triumphed overbrawn. On the road to that goal, one of the chief time markers is the Heidelberg jaw. This is the jaw of an ape-like chinless man, but man he surely was. On this one jaw a whole race of primitive men has been built up. Perhaps these early Heidelberg men possess the power of articulate speech, but this is

doubtful. The jaw is too narrow to allow free play to the tongue. Probably the Heidelberg race fashioned some kind of crude implements from sticks and stones, but even of this there is far real proof. Yet this primitive man lived about half the glacial period had run its course. He hunted the deer, the horse, the elephant, the rhinoceros, the wild boar, the moose, the bison, the wild ox, the bear and the beaver. He fled from the lion and hated the wolf and the wild cat. All these animals of Asiatic and African, as well as European types, lived together near Heidelberg in the valley of the rain. They as well as many others, including man himself, have been driven from their former homes by repeated changes of climate.

The time when they lived was apparently the second glacial epoch, that is, the epoch of mild climate after the second of the great glacial epochs, when the ice expanded from Scandinavia and from the Alps. According to Osborne's chronology, this was about 250,000 years ago. Others lengthen the time to half a million years, but at any rate, the Hodderberg man seems to have lived only about half as long as the ape man of Java. During that long interval, there had been a great and unquestionable evolution in the size of the human brain, but there is no evidence of any appreciable change in the mode of life.

After the days of the Heidelberg man, there is another long interval doing which the book of human history is blank. The next record on the pages is the Dorn Man, found at Piltown in South Eastern England. Osborne's summary of the reasons for putting him after the third great advance of the ice seems conclusive. This brings us down to a period which Pink estimates as about 100,000 years ago, to which may be 150,000. This seems very long as men count years, but geologically it is almost the present time. Previous to the glacial period, the brain of man's animal ancestors had been evolving very slowly for hundreds of millions of years. During the half million years, more or less of the glacial period previous to the time that we have now reached, that is, previous to the last interglacial epoch, it has been increasing in a rate vastly faster than formerly.

Yet the time of the Piltdown Man, the human animal, as we may perhaps still call him, had made almost no advance in the use of material resources. His weapons were probably nothing but stones, bones and sticks, that he broke with his hands. His most elaborate manufactured implements were flints of the rooted sort. These were merely thick chips roughly flaked a little to increase their cutting power. So far as we yet know, man was still ignorant of the use of fire. In those days, the climate of Central Europe was apparently somewhat milder than at present. This mild climate continued for a long time, approximately 50,000 years according to Orsman's chronology, which we are now following. During this time, the region from northern Spain and Italy to southern England and Western Australia,

where our knowledge of early man is chiefly derived, was peopled by the nanderthal race. These people appeared to have been a little more advanced than the built-down type, but their brains were distinctly smaller than those of the Europeans today. Little by little their skill and power increased, yet even at the end of the period of mild interglacial climate, they were still extremely primitive. They had no aesthetic art, so far as we know. Their greatest exhibition of skill was in flaking the edges of flints to produce,

sharp cutting edges. This they did with great skill, producing implements of beautiful symmetry and of considerable utility. Doubtless they had other arts, such as the dressing of skins, the building of huts and the making of wooden clubs. Yet how little this represents in proportion to the hundreds of thousands of years since man first began to chip the flints that he picked up from the ground. Only at the end of the last interclassical epoch to we find the first positive evidence that man had learned to use fire. We now come to a strange and most significant fact. Man had lived through three great glassy-lawy box, but he had never been subjected to a really

severe climate. Now for the first time he endured one, for the last epoch was much more rigorous than its predecessors. At the same time, his evolution proceeded much more rapidly than ever before. Let us try to get the meaning of these facts. In the first place are we sure of them? The proof lies in the animals whose fossil bones are found in large numbers in connection with the remains of early man. In this respect, as in most questions concerning primitive man, what must rely on evidence

from Central and Western Europe, for only there has any abundant evidence of our remote ancestors yet come to light. Until the close of the Third Interglacial Times, says Osborne, that is, until the approach to the last glacial epoch, no traces of northern, much less of Arctic forests. and animals are discovered anywhere, except along the borders of the ice fields. It would appear as if the animal and plant life of Europe were, in the main, but slightly affected by the first three glaciersions. We cannot entertain for a moment the belief that in general times, all the warm flora and fauna migrated

southward and then returned, because there is not a shred of evidence for this theory. It is far more in accord with the known facts to believe that all the southern and eastern forms of life had become very hardy, for you know how readily animals now living in the warm earth belts are acclimatized to northern conditions. Page 108. The tiger, for example, thrives a day in Manchuria, where temperatures of 20 degrees Fahrenheit below zero are not uncommon. The meaning of this seems to be there doing the earlier glacial airbox. Such regions as southern France, for example, became colder and stormier than now, but not cold enough to exterminate such animals as the horse and rhinoceros. During the last glacial epoch, however, although the ice-covered

areas in Western Europe and Britain were far more limited than during the third glacial epoch, the climate appears to have been more severe than at any previous period. Osborne. The approach of this severe climate was gradual. First, there was a long period of relatively cool, dry conditions. Central France, for example, may have been something like what South-Eastern Russia now is. This caused the disappearance of two rather sensitive Asiatic mammals, the hippopotamus and the southern mammoth. Then, as the Scandinavian ice sheet accumulated farther north, the climate became more severe. Men repaired to the shelter of grottoes and caverns, as they had not, for tens of thousands of years.

The hardy broad-nosed rhinoceros and straight-tusked elephant both disappeared, while animals of the cold Arctic tundra, such as the reindeer, the woolly mammoth, the woolly rhinoceros, and the Arctic Leaming migrated all over southern Britain, Belgium, France, Germany and Austria. This condition was too severe for early man. The stage of human development, which coincides with the beginning of refrigeration, is seen to present the climax of a gradual and unbroken development, not only in industries, but in ideas. The next industrial stage, which certainly presents the closing workmanship of the same Neanderthal race,

and which coincides with the main cold period of the fourth glaciation, shows a marked retrogression of technique in contrast to the steady progression, which we have observed up to this time. Osborne, page 180. The climatic conditions which were unfavorable to development in Central Europe seemed to have been highly favorable in other places where they were not quite so severe. Thus, somewhere in Central Asia, there appeared to have developed during this period, the great Crow-Magnon race.

These highly gifted people had brains as large as those of modern Europeans. They invaded southern Europe, after the most severe part of the Fourth Glacial epoch had passed away. After a prolonged study of the works of the cromagnans, one cannot avoid the conclusions that their capacity was nearly, if not quite as high as our own, that they were capable of advanced education, that they had a strongly developed aesthetic as well as a religious sense, that their society was quite highly differentiated along the lines of talentful work of different kinds. Osborne, Bages 274 to 5. The civilisation, such as it was, of the time of the crow magnet, was very widely extended.

This marks an important social characteristic, namely the readiness and willingness to take advantage of every step in human progress, wherever it may have originated. These fine people lived in Europe from about 25,000 years ago until 7,000 years ago. Their art was perhaps their greatest claim to fame, for that drawings and paintings on the walls and roofs of cabins are wonderful considering the primitiveness of the tools employed. Why they disappeared, we do not know. They were not the ancestors of most of the modern Europeans. They may have been fair-haired, like the Nordics,

but they had peculiarly broad faces and relatively narrow heads unlike any of the present great races. They were displaced by other bases, the long-headed dark Mediterranean, the broad-headed, brown-haired alpine people, and the tall, fair-haired, blue-eyed, long-headed Nordics. These later races, which have carried civilization forward by leaps and bounds, appeared to have risen to their present mental power during the same last Glacial Lebok. The place of their origin is not certain, but their common centre was quite surely in Central Asia, not far from where the chrome magnins developed. In the same region toward the ancestors of the races that evolved the early civilizations of India,

China and Asia Minor, and at least a part of the Mesopotamian civilization. There, in an environment not quite so severe as that of Central Europe, these early people developed the art of smoothing stone implements and evolved other capacities which enabled them to conquer the artistic chrome magnins. or else in the not greatly dissimilar climate, which then prevailed in North Africa, the art of smelting copper was invented. A little later, in, in essence, the same Asiatic regions, the far greater art of making iron tools was developed,

and man took still another of the great steps which marked his advance towards civilization. In view of these facts and many others, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the last glacial epoch and the succeeding period of let's pronounce climatic changes was peculiarly stimulating to mental development. The quarter's places were not favourable, but on their borders where the climate was severe enough to be highly bracing, but not be numbing, there occurred an extraordinary development of brain power. As evolution counts the years, we are still too near to see this development in its true light, yet it can scarcely be a mere chance that man rose above the animals during a great glacial period, such as that which directed the wonderful evolutionary changes of the far earlier Permian period. Still less it is likely to be mere chance that the evolution of the powers of the human brain was relatively slower to the last of the four great epochs into which the glacial period is divided. That last epoch was colder and more severe than any of the others.

Close to the ice sheets it was apparently so severe that it caused a retrogression. But farther away, it somehow provided conditions such that man changed a thousand times faster than the animals that changed during the vast periods of relatively uniform climate in earlier geological times. biological times. Moreover, it was this last cold hepel which caused most of the change in the mammals of Europe and North America. So even among the higher animals, we may well say that the last glacial epoch of 50,000 years or less produced most of the changes which in Vigua 22 had been ascribed to a million years.

In that case, the change in animal life was at least 50 times as rapid as the average during the preceding geological epochs. severe climate is wonderfully potent in hastening the course of evolution. End of Section 7. Section 8. Of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is a Librevox according, or Librevox Accordings in the public domain. For more information on a volunteer, please visit Librevox.org.

Recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 8. The Environment of Mental Evolution Even yet, we have not seen the full importance of there. that is, of climate upon man's evolution. We have seen how it influenced his body, but why should his mind be even more sensitive than his body? Why should the mental optimum be lower than the physical?

Why should variable weather and cold waves stimulate a business intervention as much or more than they stimulate health? The answer seems to be found in the climatic conditions under which man's mind manifests rapid evolution. We have seen that the greatest crisis in the evolution of the human body, were associated with epochs of severe climate. Other factors have indeed played a part, but, as Lowell puts it,

changing environmental conditions stimulate the sluggish evolutionary stream to a quickened movement. Whenever it has been possible to connect cause and effect, the immediate influence is found to be generally one of climate. This is pre-eminently true of mental evolution. Throughout the glacial period, the form of the lands was essentially the same as now. The one thing that was profoundly different was the climate.

It must have worked in two. ways. First, it must have weeded out those members of the human base who could not endure its rigours or who did not migrate to milder climates. Second, as we shall see in the next chapter, it probably was the actual course of what the biologist caused mutations, so that new human types arose. In order to appreciate the part played by climate and the evolution of man's mind, and in our own activities at present, we must first find out what kind of climate prevailed in the glacial period. Within recent years our ideas of the climate of the past have changed greatly. A few generations ago the Earth's

atmosphere was supposed to have grown gradually clearer, drier and cooler for millions of years. Then it was discovered that glaciation again and again recurred in relatively low latitudes. This means that since the earliest geological times, there have been repeated periods where the Earth's climate has grown cold and then warm again time after time. There have also been prolonged dry periods and wet periods, as a situation. suggested in figure 21. Coincided with the discovery of the complexity of the US climatic history went the further discovery that minor variations are constantly taking place. Each glacial period is divided into epochs, each epoch into stages and each stage into minor cycles.

This is illustrated by figure 23, which shows the climatic pulsations of the glacial period, and by figure 24, which shows the minor fluctuations in the last 3,000 years. If we knew the past as well as we know the present, we should doubtless find that every glacial period is a time not only of great climatic changes lasting hundreds of thousands of years, but of innumeral, shorter, more rapid changes. The enquiring mind naturally asks the cause of these changes. Four chief hypotheses have been advanced, but three of them seem incompetent to explain the known facts. One of these is Krall's idea that glaciation arises because, once in about twenty-five,

thousand years, the Earth is farthest from the sun in winter instead of in summer, as is now the case. Alluring as it sounds, this hypothesis has been entirely discarded by geologists. This is partially because the variation in the sun's distance from the Earth are apparently not enough to cause the supposed effect. A much stronger argument is that Crawl's hypothesis demands a glacial epoch every 24,000 years, which is wholly at variations with the facts. A second hypothesis holds that glaciation is due to the uplifted. of the lands. As we know, however, that the land often sank at the very times and places where it would have to rise according to this supposition. Recently a third hypothesis has received wide acceptance. This is the idea that changes in the amount of carbonic

acid gas in the atmosphere caused corresponding changes in atmospheric moisture and thus the retention of heat by the air. Something of this sort doubtless happens, for carbon is sometimes locked up in beds of coal and limestone, and so sometimes set free when the rocks are broken up by weathering. The composition of the air weather must change so slowly that this hypothesis can have little to do with the climatic changes with which we are now concerned. The only remaining possibility seems to be that climatic changes are due to variations in the energy received from the sun. This brings us into the midst of a hot dispute. One school of meteorologists holds that present variations of climate

are purely accidental. A newer and rapidly growing school holds that they are due to to the Sun. Some members of the Second School believe that the entire effect arises from variations in the Sun's heat, while a more radical group believe that some other form of energy, such as electricity, is also concerned. This latter point need not concern us, for we shall base our conclusions on observed facts and not on their interpretations. From the work of a large number of scientists as well as from his own investigations, it seems to the author that there is no escape from the conclusion that present climatic variation are due to corresponding variations in solar energy.

It seems equally probable that while the slower climatic pulsations the past may have been due to changes in the altitude of continents and mountains, the more rapid and marked pulsations were due to the sun. Therefore the best road to an understanding of the conditions under which man's mind evolved most rapidly would seem to be to inquire into the present relation of the sun and the earth, and to see what would happen if the present effects were magnified. The reader must remember, however, that a considered body of thoughtful investigators do not yet accept the view here presented. One of the most firmly established of all facts about the Earth and the Sun, as that when the Sun is especially active, as indicated by sunspots,

the average temperature of the Earth is lower than usual. This conclusion is based chiefly on the works of Kupin, who tabulated the results of our 20 million meteorological observations covering all available parts of the earth and distributed throughout a century. With a must be coupled in other fact. Although the sun as a whole probably changes its temperature very slowly, the temperature of the surface may change rapidly. Superheated gases appear to be shot up from below,

much as the earth pours out lava. Thus the amount of heat received by the earth changes constantly. Abbott's measurements show that when sunspots are numerous, the sun gives out more than the usual amount of heat. Thus we have this strange anomaly of a hotter sun and a cooler earth. How is this possible? The answer is apparently found in the movements of the US atmosphere. When the sun's surface is disrupted by eruptions from below,

some force, perhaps electrical, causes the Earth's atmosphere to be correspondingly disturbed. The terrestrial disturbances take the form of changes of atmospheric pressure, which give rise to stronger winds and more intense storms. All storms are more or less cyclonic in nature. That is, they may be compared with inverted whirlpools. From every side the wind blows spirally inward towards the centre of the storm. In the centre of the air moves upward. The area of the upward movement may have a diameter of only a few hundred yards,

as in a summer dust whirl, or of hundreds of miles as in an ordinary storm. The rate of upward movement may be so rapid that roofs are lifted bodily as in a tornado, or so gentle that it is not noticed except through the cooling of the air. Everyone knows that a warm wave commonly precedes a storm, especially in winter. The wind blows from a southerly direction and brings air from lower latitudes. When the air rises, he is removed from the earth's surface, as the air stays aloft a long time before coming down again, the heat is radiated into space and lost.

When the air finally descends into clear areas of high pressure, become decidedly cold. Because this cold air is heavy, it flows under the warm air in the storm centre and raises it. Thus cool waves follow warm waves. When the sun is active, this process takes place more rapidly than when the sun's service is at rest. Hence, even though the sun gives out more heat than usual, the increased storminess causes the U.S. service to become cool. The amount of cooling is greatest at the equator, and least in high latitudes. Still another point deserves special study. It bears not only on the problem of the kind of climate under which man's mental evolution took place,

but on his historic activities and the conditions of such modern matters as financial crisis. When sunspots are abundant, the ordinary cyclonic storms which bring our frequent changes of weather tend to become concentrated in certain belts. The main belt, both in the United States and Europe, lies well to the north, At present during times of the greater solar activity, it central lies in southern Canada and southern Scandinavia. With greater solar activity, the belt would apparently lie still farther north. South of the northern storm belt, that is, in the central parts of the United States and Europe, the storminess declines when sunsports are numerous.

Hence these regions tend towards aridity when those farther north are moist. Still farther south lies the second belt of increased storminess at times of solar activity. This belt extends from the southwestern United States to the Gulf of Mexico and reappears east to the Atlantic where it embraces the Mediterranean region, Syria, Persia and northern India, and other parts of Central Asia. Here the increase in storminess is like that of the northern belt, although much less intense. Having seen what happens at present during times of increased sunspots, let us go back to the 14th century. Many lines of evidence indicate that this was a period of unusual climatic stress. see figure 24. It was like a glacial period on a small scale, and like present periods of solar activity on a large scale.

This was especially evident in the two storm belts. In the southern belt during the early part of the 14th century, the big trees of California, as we know from the rings of their stumps, suddenly increased their rate of growth. They grew with a vigor unequaled at any other time since about 1,000 AD. This means that the rainfall, especially in the late winter and spring, was at a maximum. Not far from the big trees but on the opposite or eastern side of the Sierra Mountains lies Owens Lake. This body of salt water now has no outlet, but formerly it overflowed.

When the Owens River was diverted into the Los Angeles Aqueduct to be carried 250 miles across the mountains, both the lake and the river were most carefully measured and analyzed. For the amount of salt and the two, Gail has calculated the length of time since the lake overflowed. This must have happened not long before the time of Christ. The climate must have been so moist that the lake was two and a half times as large as at present. From this fact and from our knowledge of the big trees we can determine which of the various elevated beaches surrounding the lake belongs to the 14th century. The beach that described appears we've been formed by waves of unusual intensity. This means that the storms of the early part of the 14th century were very violent.

Far away in Western Asia, historic records show that at this time the Caspian's region, the Caspian sea rose rapidly to a level many feet above that of today and above the position it had previously held for several centuries. Still farther to the east, in the very heart of Asia, the desert lake of Lopinor in Chinese Turkestan likewise rose and overwhelmed the dragon town. Thus at both ends of the southern storm belt, we find signs of unusual storminess culminating about 1325 AD, while other evidence indicates that similar conditions prevailed in the intervening portions. Let us now turn to the Northern Belt. During the 14th century, abundant storms and

low temperature seemed to have increased the ice pack on the coasts of southern Greenland, so that communication with Norway became extremely difficult. The same causes, according to Peterson, impoverished the settlers and diminished their numbers. Hence they were finally exterminated by the Eskimos, and the new world was lost for a while to the white man. Previously, the Eskimos appeared have been a quiet folk living far to the north. The cold and storms of the 14th century, however, apparently deprived them of the means of livelihood. Thus they were driven south as raiders. In northwestern Europe, similar untold circumstances prevailed. In Norway, the cold stormy weather caused the crops to decrease woefully. Northern provinces which had formerly been able to export

wheat now had to import it. The revenues fell off 60 to 70%. In the wake of these disasters came great political disorder. According to Norlin's careful summary, the coldest winter ever known in northwestern Europe was 1323 to 4, just when the Caspian Sea rose most rapidly and the big trees grew fastest. Horuses as well as men were able to cross the Baltic Sea from Germany to Sweden on the ice. The next three coldest years were 1296, 1306 and 1408. According to Peterson, the 14th century shows a record of extreme climatic variations. The winters were so extraordinarily cold that the Rhine, Danube, Thames and Po were frozen for weeks and months, a thing that almost never happens now. The cold winters were followed by violent floods, which are recorded in 55 summers in the 14th century.

Of course, the inundation of the Great Rivers of Europe, six or seven centuries ago must have been more devastating than similar floods in our day, when the flow of the rivers is regulated by locks and canals. Still the floods of the 14th century must have surpassed everything of that kind, which has occurred since then. In 1342, the waters of the Rhine inundated the city of Mayans and the Cathedral Oskwe at Conilham Homines. The wars of Cologne were flooded so that they could be passed by boats in July. This occurred also in 1374 in mid-February, which is an unusual month for such disasters. Again in other years the drought was so intense that the same rivers the Danube Rhein and others nearly dried up, and the Rhine could be forded at Cologne. This happened at least twice in the same century. There is one exceptional summer of such evil recorded that centuries afterwards it was spoken of as the old hot summer of 1357.

Peterson also states that on the coasts of the North and Baltic seas, not less the 19 storms of a destructedness unparalleled in later times are recorded. from the 14th century. The coastline of the North Sea was greatly altered by these storms. Thus on January 16, 1300, half of the island of Helicoland, and many other islands, including Burkan, were engulfed by the sea. So great was the destruction of sea coast villages that this storm is known under the name of the Great Man drowning. Again in 1304 on November 1st, the island of Rudin was torn asunder from Rudin by the force

of the waves. Many other similar disasters occurred almost always in the cold season. From this assemblage of facts which might be greatly increased, it appears at the 14th century, especially its early part, was marked by notable storminess in both of the belts where storms now increased during times of many sunspots. As to what was happening in the sun at that time, our knowledge is extremely scanty. European records of sunspots begin only in 1610 and are accurate only since 1755, In China, imperfect records are available almost as far back as the time of Christ. Of course, these include only years when the spots were visible to the naked eye.

Moreover, since there was no official agency for making observations, it must often have happened that great disturbances passed unrecorded because no one happened to zip down the fact in writing. Nevertheless, it is interesting to find that wolf, the chief authority on the subject, considers that so far as can be judged from the Chinese records, the years of the 1370 to 385, were noted for sunspot maxima, while an absolute maximum greater than for many centuries apparently took place about 1372. This, at least, lends probability to the supposition that the whole 14th century was a time of unusual solar disturbance. Thus we are led to infer that if solar disturbances should increase still more of the Earth would again enter a glacial period. Let us inquire further into the effect of this approach to the condition of a glacial period in the 14th century. century.

Take England, for example. According to Thorold Rogers, the severest famine ever experienced in England was that of 1315 to 1316, and the next worst was in 1321. In fact, from 1308 to 1322, great scarcity of food prevailed most of the time. Other famines of less severity occurred in 1351 and 1369. The same cause was at work in all these cases, says Rogers, incessant rain and cold, stormy summers. It has said that the inclemency of the seasons affected the cattle, and that numbers perished from disease and want. After the bad harvest of 1315, the price of wheat,

which was already high, rose rapidly, and in May 1316 was about five times the average. For a year or more thereafter, it remained at three or four times the ordinary level. The severity of the famine may be judged from the fact that, previous to the Great War, the most notable scarcity of wheat in modern England and the highest relative price was in December 1800. At that time, wheat cost nearly three times the usual amount. During the famine of the early 14th century, it is said that people were reduced to subsist upon roots, upon horses and dogs, and stories are told of even more terrible acts by reason of the extreme famine. But we must hesitate before we give credence to the stories found in

chroniclers, picked up as they were, no doubt from rumors current in the country. and amplified before they reached the monastery in which they were recorded. Nevertheless, there is strong evidence that many persons must have died, for the price of labour suffered a permanent rise of at least 10%. There simply were not papal enough left among the peasants to do the work demanded by the more prosperous classes who had not suffered so much. After the famine came drought, the year 1325 appears to have been peculiarly dry, and 1331, 1344 and 1367 were also dry.

In general these conditions do little harm in England. They are of interest chiefly as showing how excessive rain and drought are wrapped to succeed one another. Some conception of the harm done by famine may be obtained from the following figures. They show how anemia and tuberculosis increased among the children of Germany during the Great War on account of insufficient nourishment. A table is displayed on the page, comparing children entering school, out to years, and percentages, record as anemic and tubercular. This is a terrible record. Among the children 12 to 14 years of age and an adequate supply of food cause an increase of nearly half in anemia. Still more sinister are the figures for tuberculosis, three times as much under conditions of malnutrition as under those of a normal food supply.

Can anyone doubt that under the fireless, carefully regulated conditions of the 14th century, There was a still greater increase in sickness during two such years as 1315 and 1316, when a large part of the people of England were short of food most of this time. In India during the famines which arise from droughts, one of the consequences that is most dreaded, the infectious disease known as famine fever or relapsing fever. In fact it follows famine almost everywhere. In the midst of the death and disaster which the climate inflicted directly upon Europe in the 14th century, there arrived as a still grimer calamity. We have no positive evidence that the Black Death or Great Plague,

as it was called, had any direct connection with climate, but there is a strong presumption to that effect. According to Thorwald Rogers, the Black Death began its further course in China about 1333 AD. It is said that it was accompanied at its outbreak by various terrestrial and atmospheric phenomena of a novel and most destructive character, phenomena similar to those which characterized the first appearance of the Asiatic cholera. of the influenza, and even in more remote times of the Athenium plague. It is a singular fact that all epidemics of an unusually destructive character have had their homes in the farthest east, and have travelled slowly from those regions toward Europe.

It appears, too, that the disease exhausted itself in the place of its origin at about the same time in which it made its appearance in Europe. The storm burst on the island of Cyprus at the end of the year 1347, and was a kind of the country. accompanied we are told by remarkable physical phenomena as convulsions of the earth and a total change in the atmosphere. Many persons affected died instantly. The black death seemed not only to the frightened imagination of the people, but even to the more sober observation of the few men of science at the time to move forward with measured steps from the desolate east, under the form of a dark and fetid mist.

The Black Death appeared at Avignon in January 1348, visited Florence by the middle of April, and thoroughly penetrated France and Germany by August. It entered Poland in 1349, reached Sweden in the winter of that year and Norway by infection from England at about the same time. It spread even to Iceland and Greenland, with which latter country communication had of a century has been familiarly kept up. It is said that among the physical changes it took place, consequent upon the convulsions of the Earth's service, fast icebergs

formed in the northeastern coast of the American continent, and effectively severed all communication between the old world and the portion of the new which had hitherto been visited. Rogers, History of Agriculture and Princes of England, Volume 1, Pages 292 of F. In China has said that the plague destroyed 13 million people. It probably destroyed as many more in other parts of Asia. Fifteen years after its inception, that is, in August 1348, it reached England at the opposite end of the great land mass of the eastern hemisphere. There, and in France and Italy, it appears to have slain a third of the population. Its ravages were worse among the common people, but even the king's daughter, Joan, died of it.

The way in which it swit people away may be judged from the fact that the bishop's registers of the diocese of Norwich showed that many parishes, three even four vicaries were installed within 18 months. Not till 1368 did the plague finally disappear from England. I have dwelt on the black death because of the way in which the accounts of the disaster combine three great types of phenomena. One type pertains to climate, one to earthquakes and volcanoes, and one to disease. That they were connected in the ways supposed by the people of the 14th century is not to be supposed. Nevertheless, it seems clear that all three rose to a maximum in the first half of that century. I should not attempt to show how volcanoes and earthquakes were concerned with the others.

although I believe that probably they owe their origin to the same causes as the climatic phenomena. As to disease and the weather, the connection is clearer. It will be remembered that the plague first came to prominence in China in 1333. This was in the decade succeeding the coldest known winter in northwestern Europe, one of the driest seasons in England, the fastest growth of the big trees in California, and the most rapid rise and highest level of the Caspian Sea. These manifestations of climatic instability were accompanied by excessive storms and floods in China. In countries like China, the plague seems always to exist as mild endemic form.

It apparently rises to virulence when the vitality of a large section of the community falls to a low ebb. In this respect, it resembles famine fever, whose dreaded consequences were still exemplified in Ireland during the potato famine about 1845. The same is true of cholera and influenza and of tuberculosis, as we have seen from the germest statistics. In China, nothing weakens of people like great floods, which drown the rice fields and bring famine. Hence does highly probable that the sequence in the first half of the 14th century was something like this.

Great solar activity, climatic extremes, floods in China, failure of the rice crop, famine, pestilence and death. Thus, climatic extremes may have been the cause not. not only of 25 million deaths in Asia, but of another 25 million which were appalled to have occurred in Europe at that ill-faded time. The importance of such climatic vicissitudes can be seen even in our own time. Although now the extremes are not equal to those of the 14th century and still less to those of earlier historical times and at the prehistoric and glacial periods, they cause

terrible devastation. Even in our own country large areas in western Kansas, New Mexico, and other dry regions have been settled, abandoned because of drought, resettled, and in some cases even abandoned again and then settled for the third time. Many a farmer has had to pack up all his goods and trek across the country in search of a new home. In India, the British government has spent hundreds of millions in famine relief and are building railroads to bring food and canals to bring water in the hope of reducing the deaths due to failure of the crops when the monsoon rains are deficient. Yet hundreds of thousands of people still die of starvation or diseases induced by scarcity of food. In China too, both droughts and floods still bring disaster as they have done for centuries. Even as I write, I have before me a news clipping saying that a million people are even now in May 1918 in danger of starvation. Even in so a progressive country as Australia, the effect of variations in rainfall is terrible.

My colleague Professor H.E. Gregory thus sums up the situation there. Ten of the 12 droughts recorded for Australia since 1880 affected chiefly the inland areas, where the rainfall is normally below 25 inches, but the great drought of 2002-1903, which marked the culmination of five unfavorable years, affected the entire continent. In one year, 15 million sheep and 1,500,000 cattle perished, and the whole drought period saw the death of 60 million sheep and 4,000.5 million sheep and 4 million cattle from starvation and thirst. Mining operations were checked for lack of water. The wheat production fell in one year from 38 million buttles to 12 million buttles,

and flour as well as other foodstuffs was important. Many people left the country. The excessive departures over arrivals for the period 191 to 905 been 16,800. The birth rate decreased, the death rate increased so that the increase in population dropped to 1.3% the lowest in the history of the country. During this period, the rate of increase for South Australia was only 0.27% and for Victoria, 0.18%. In consistence as it may seem,

the kind of climate which brings such disasters to some parts of the world is also the kind which elsewhere most stimulates mental evolution. For liability is the keynote of the whole matter. Suppose that the conditions which appear to be connected with great solar activity should become much intensified. A glacial epoch would be at hand. Events like those which occurred from 1300 to 1400 AD in Greenland, Scandinavia, Great Britain, Central Europe, the Caspian region, China and California would recur with greatly increased intensity.

It must be carefully noted, however, that bitter cold, great aridity, severe storms, floods and the like would apparently not prevail steadily nor everywhere. On the contrary, part of the time in high latitudes and all of the time in low latitudes conditions might be no more severe than those prevailing at present where civilization is highest. The mildest years of the glacial period may have been about like our severe years, such as 1917 and the early part of 1918, when many weather records were broken in the United States. Solar activity, however, characteristically varis in cycles. When the sun is unusually active, the cycle becomes shorter and the contrast between maximum and minimum increases enormously. In the 14th century, this tendency was strongly apparent, and during the glacial period, and especially during its closing epoch, this must have been still more true.

Consider the effect which such extreme and frequent fluctuations would have when they first began to prevail in various parts of the old world. the only place where man appears certainly to have lived at that time. In northern Europe, the terrible storms, floods, cold waves, and droughts must have destroyed both animals and plants. Thus the inhabitants were largely deprived not only of the game or which they chiefly subsisted, but of the nuts, berries and roots which ate out their scanty diet. At the same time, the great extremes must have been mentally benumbing. In addition to the famines which must frequently have affected the primitive human inhabitants, diseases like the Black Death probably wiped out others.

The few who remained doubtless subsisted miserably for a while and then migrated southward. In Central Europe, one of the most marked effects of the early stages of a glacial climate was probably aridity. This is what happens when today, on a mild scale, when sun spots are numerous. It happens on a much greater scale in the past, as we know, from abundant deposits of the yellow wind-borne dust known as Lois, which is found in the valleys of the Rhine, Danube and other rivers of central Europe. Similarly in North America, the relatively poor crops of the central portions of the United States at times of many sunspots had their parallel in the glacial deposits of Lois in the Valley of the Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio.

Such aidity was probably not nearly so bad for nearly man as the insistent storminess and cold farther north. Nevertheless, both conditions must have checked progress and wiped out. large parts of the population, which at best was very scanty according to modern standards. Anst is not surprising to find signs of distinct retrogression among the people of Europe at their height of the last glacial epoch. The Neanderthal race persisted indeed for its bones of found in caves with those of beasts of the far north, such as the reindeer and Arctic lemmine, but the adverse climate denied it the privilege of inheriting Europe. The weak and Neanderthal people were replaced by the Crobe Magnan race, which had weathered the last glacial epoch in a climate less severe and far more stimulating than that of Central Europe.

Twenty or twenty-five thousand years ago, when the height of this epoch was passed, this artistic race with its highly developed brains invaded Europe, apparently from the south. Possibly they had evolved in the Mediterranean regions, or more probably they had migrated into the northern confines of Africa from an Asiatic centre farther east. There they probably lived not far from the ancestors of the dark, long-headed Mediterranean race, which today dominates southern Europe, and of the brown-haired hazel-eyed, broad-faced alpine race, whose home is in the mountainous centre of Europe. These other races also appear to have followed the lines marked out by climate. The Mediterranean people quite surely came from Asia by way of North Africa, while the alpine race, coming later after the climate, had ameliorated,

seems to have followed a more northern route. Finally, perhaps six or seven years ago, the fair-haired, long-headed Nordics from whom I descended the bulk of the English, Scandinavians, and Germans, reached Western Europe by a still more northern route, which caused them finally to pour out of northern Europe southward in the great barbarian invasions of historic times.

At the height of the last glacial epoch, the ancestors of many races, including the Cro-Magnans, the Mediterranean race, the alpine race and the Nordics all appear to have lived in what we have caught the southern storm belt. There is reason to believe that the ancestors of the Semites, of the Indo-Europeans who dominated India, and of the Chinese and Japanese also dwelt in the same general region. Thus, although the matter is of course uncertain, it seems probable that the world's most advanced

races all evolved under essentially the same climatic conditions. The southern storm belt, in some part of which man apparently took the last great steps in mental evolution comprises all the lands around the Mediterranean, the largest area of such lands being in North Africa. It also includes the lands to the eastward from Asia Minor to southward Turkestan, Persia, Afghanistan, Belugistan and northern India. It is interesting to find that the climate of this region during the glacial period was apparently much like that which we have found to be the most favourable to man's mental and physical activity. In what follows, it must be remembered, that these conclusions as to the climate and home of early man are only in a small degree the work of the present author, and that they were framed before any extensive studies had been made upon the exact nature of the climate most stimulating

to human activity. Hence the agreement with the conclusions of earlier pages is made more striking. To date the average January temperature of the regions, where the most intellectual races of mankind are supposed to have developed ranges from four. 40 degrees Fahrenheit to 60 degrees. In July, temperature averages from 75 degrees to 85 degrees. At the height of the last glacial epoch, the mean temperature of the Earth as a whole is estimated by various authors to have been 5 degrees to 20 degrees Fahrenheit colder than at present. These estimates are based on the height of the stone line as marked by evidences of glaciation.

Most authorities, especially those who have worked more recently, are inclined to say 8 degrees to 12 degrees rather than. than higher. Suppose we say 10 degrees, then the range of main temperature in the northern part of the area would have been from about 30 degrees in January to 65 degrees in July, and the southern part from about 45 degrees to 75 degrees. This is essentially the same as prevails today in the area from southern France northward to southern Scandinavia, including England on the west and Austria proper on the east. In our own country, similar temperatures prevail only on the Atlantic coast, in a sense small region entering around New York, and in a larger area on the Pacific coast of Oregon and

Washington. Elsewhere, either one season or the other is too cold or too warm. In Asia, only the central part of the main island of Japan falls within these limits. The southern hemisphere contains almost no region of this kind. A small area in New Zealand, where the two islands approach each other, conforms to our limits of temperature, while Patagonia, in latitude 45 degrees, approaches them closely without actually reaching them. It must be clearly understood that our figures are elastic. In the first place we do not know exactly where man's mind developed most rapidly. In the second place we do not know at exactly what time the most rapid development took place.

And in the third place we do not know exactly what conditions of temperature prevailed at any particular place at any particular time. Thus with three unknown variables, it's obvious that the best we can do is to make a rough approximation. This much is clear, however, the conditions of temperature in the general region where man developed most rapidly were approximately the same as in the regions where today he is most advanced. By far the largest of the favorable areas is in northwestern Europe. The next largest is in the eastern and western parts of the United States, the next in Japan,

the next probably New Zealand in Australia, and probably the smallest in South America. Averaguer appears to contain no such area. This result agrees with that which has been seen. set forth in civilization and climate on quite different grounds. When we have stated the temperature under which man evolved most rapidly, we have by no means fully described the climate. We must know the conditions of storminess. At times of increased solar activity, it will be remembered that there is also an increase both in the number and intensity of storms. This applies to both storm belts. In the northern belt, it leads to

three conditions which promote glaciation. First, the precipitation of snow. during the winter becomes more abundant. Second, the lower temperature at all times of the year lengthens the season when snow falls and also prevents the snow from melting in the summer. And third, the greater cloudiness also prevents the snow from melting. Thus, the area where snow lies throughout the year gradually increases. After such an area is one established, it becomes a region of high atmospheric pressure. It then resembles Greenland and Antarctica. In those great regions of ice sheets, the general movement of the air is down in the centre and outward on the borders.

Some of the world's most violent winds blow out from the great ice caps. Since the air in the centres of such regions descends from far aloft, it is cold and thus prevents the ice and snow. Only rarely do storms penetrate far into the high pressure areas. They skirt the edges, however, in large numbers, and their violence increases in proportion to the size and intensity of the high pressure areas caused by the ice sheet. During the glacial period, ice covered all of Scandinavia and much of Great Britain, northern Germany and the Baltic region. The Alps and to a less degree the Pyrenees

were the seat of large permanent masses of ice which spread out far below the base of the mountains. In winter a continuous cover of snow must have connected these various ice sheets. Thus all Europe north of the Alps and the Pyrenees was probably a high-pressure area for at least six months of each year. Asia north of the central mountains was also a high-pressure area. Under such circumstances practically all the storms must have been forced to allow a route along the Mediterranean and across Scandinavia, Mesopotamia and Persia to northern India. Moreover, even in summer, many storms must have been forced to allow this course. From all this it appears that when man was making his most rapid mental evolution,

he lived in a climate where severe storms were of great frequency. Remember that at that time the direct rays of the sun were probably even warmer than now. Thus, when there were no storms, the sun quickly heated the land wherever there was no cover of snow. Then a storm came along. It drew in warm air from the south. The warm air rose in the storm's centre and cold air from the ice sheets swept over the country from the north and northwest. Thus the changes from day to day were apparently much greater than is now the case in any part of the world. At present, the most frequent changes of weather are experienced by the north-eastern United States and southern Canada.

Western Europe, including northern Italy and Austria proper, together with the Baltic coast of Russia, but not including Spain, comes next in this matter. Then follows Japan. New Zealand is the most stormy of the habitable areas of their southern hemisphere, and follows Japan in this respect. Finally, at the bottom of the list comes to parts of South Asia from latitude 3 degrees to 40 degrees, The rest of the world is either too cold and storming to be readily habitable, or else has relatively few storms and an unstimulating climate. It is highly significant that except in one respect, the order of the different regions in respect to favourable conditions of storminess is the same as in respect to favourable conditions of temperature. The one exception is that, while Western Europe appears to have the advantage of temperature, the United States has the advantage in storminess and thus invariability. Thus it appears that today the distribution of civilization is almost in harmony with the degree

to which the climate in various parts of the world resemble, that of which man's mind made its most rapid evolution. Apparently in early days before man became greatly different from the animals, his body became adapted to a temperature averaging about 64 degrees. Then, when the time came for his mental evolution, the activity of his mind made the most rapid evolution where the temperature was somewhat lower. Also at that time, or earlier, both his body and his mind became extremely sensitive to the stimulus of changes of temperature. Then it appears that the relation of climate and health to the urban flow of business and to other human activities is merely the inevitable reflection of the physical circumstances

under which mankind evolved. In a latter chapter, we shall follow man's evolution through still another stage and see how changes of climate seem to have swayed Rome this way and that. Here let us return to the 14th century in order to point out certain facts which may be a mere coincidence, but which are at least worth considering in the light of our study of evolution. Today the southern storm belt is best developed in Italy. An increase in the intensity of that belt, such as appears to have characterized the glacial period, would make itself felt first apparently in that country. Thus at a time like the 14th century when great storminess prevailed in northwestern Europe, we should expect that Italy

would be stormier than now. The stormy period began with the sudden increase of storminess at the very beginning of the century. This colonated about 1325, but judging by the big trees of California, the climate did not return to a condition resembling that day until after 1460. See figure 24. Thus the 14th century and to a less extent the 15th of 2, 14th century. for a period which would be expected to be mentally stimulating Italy by reason of the comparative storminess and variability. Many of the best authorities hold that during the 14th century, the mental activity of Italy was higher than at any time since the days of Rome. The Renaissance, to be sure, did not come to the next century, but its indispensable precursor, the revival of learning,

came in the 14th. During the Renaissance, the arts of sculpture and painting bows to their highest levels in Leonardo da Vinci and Michelangelo. Yet these great masters could never have achieved such fame, and not such men as Giovanni, Andrea Pesanol, Simabu, and Giotto, done a wonderful, constructive work in developing the technique of art during the preceding century. These men were the original pioneers who did most of the inventive work, while Leonardo and Michael Angelo were the reapers. The great men of the Renaissance would never have been crows.

crown with such a halo of glory, in the preceding century had not been one of the greatest creative periods in the whole history of art. In medieval Italy, as in ancient Greece, Egypt, Rome, Syria, and Yucatan, the most striking productions of art and architecture usually representing the flowering of forces which had been in action for some time. In literature, on the other hand, there is no need of so long a period to develop a high technique. In a great many countries, the greatest literary masterpieces belong to a period somewhat preceding the artistic masterpieces. Italian literature from the 14th century holds its own without arrival. From 1300 to 1310, Dante was writing his divine comedy.

A little later, Petrarch, 1304 to 1374, was laying the foundations of the great revival of learning, which flowed not only in the Renaissance, but in the Reformation. and at the same time, 1313 to 1375, Boccaccio, whose true greatness is often failed by the coarseness of some of his work, was building the reputation which places him third among Italian men of letters, unless Ariostol, 1474 to 1533, has just a claim to that place. Doubtless Dante Petrarch and Boccaccio would have been great no matter where they lived. yet may not the stimulating climate at the 14th century have had something to do with the energy, originality, and perseverance with which they worked. They too, like the businessman of America, came of a race which is extremely sensitive to climatic variations and which bears in its blood the adherence of a stock whose chief development

both physical and mental has taken place under the influence of climatic crisis. End of Section 8. Section 9. of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is the Libby Vox According, or Libby Vox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or volunteer, please visit Librivox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 9 The Origin of New Types Among Animals In following the steps of the evolution of man and of animals, we have seen the conditions under which the most rapid changes occur.

We have also seen why it is that, doing periods of great climatic stress, many old forms disappear. But why is it that at the end of such a period we find not only that the old forms have gone, but that their places are amply filled by new forms? Indeed, we may almost say that at times of evolutionary crisis, the development of new types is even more marked than the disappearance of the old.

The problem of how these new forms originate as a direct bearing upon man's life today. For the laws that apply to species of plants and animals, throughout geological history appear also to apply to races of men today and to human ideas and institutions. Let us begin by considering what modern biology has to say about this subject in respect to animals, then we shall be ready to apply our results to man in the next chapter. Charles Darwin filled the world with the idea that natural selection is of the utmost importance and evolution.

His work and that of hundreds of his successors have shown that among all the factors that cause selection, climate is far the most important, since climate larger controls the food supply and migrations. Darwin believed that very slight differences were enough to give natural selection of free hand. The work of latter biologists had shown more, and more clearly, that this is rarely or never the case. New species not seem to arise through the cumulative effect of little differences. The task of the elephant, for example, probably did not reach its present size through a newable tiny incrementa. More probably there occurred many large mutations whereby the tusks of a certain group of elephants were elongated to such extent that the group had an advantage over its short-tasked comrades. What causes such mutations?

This is today the great question of biology. Several causes are probably at work. Hybridisation is almost certainly an important factor. Two allied forms are brought into contact just as various races of men are brought together in cities or in new countries. The two forms into breed, there arise a hybrid form which is subject to wide variations, and occasionally some unknown cause leads to extreme types. These extreme types are genuine mutants and give rise to new species. When we have said that hyperization thus leads to new species, we have not yet explained the matter.

In the first place, why do the two forms, either two separate come together, generally because of migrations? But among animals' migrations are almost invariably due to the search for food and water, or the desire to escape enemies. The food and water depend almost wholly on climate, while the number of enemies depends upon the food supply or some other kind of plant or animal, and thus again upon climate, although less directly. Putting this aside, however, and confining ourselves to what happens after the hybrid race is formed,

have we any evidence as to why the extreme mutants arise? In attempting to explain why mutants arise, it must be remembered that a mutant is different from a monstrosity which does not reproduce itself. In order to have any great biological significance, a mutant must be reasonably perfect so that it can reproduce its kind, and its peculiarities must be capable of being passed on by heredity. Moreover, the mutation must occur in enough individuals so that there is a reasonable chance so that animals within the same mutation will make and thus perpetuate the new form.

Such mutations seem to thus far if been produced artificially by only two methods. One is by exposing the immature ovules which germ cells to some artificial stimulus. The stimulus may be produced through the injection of a weak chemical solution into the ovary at an early stage development. In this way, McDougal appears to have obtained a genuine species of primrose. Other possible stimuli are mechanical shocks, electricity and light of different colours, but none of these seem to have led to the production of really new forms. The other method of causing mutations is by keeping the developing germ cells under extreme conditions of temperature or humidity during certain critical periods.

In the case of planets, it is probable that this has occurred again and again, although it is not easy to point to specific cases. In the case of animals, with which we are now chiefly concerned, it has occurred in a number of well-authenticated instances, some of which we shall now describe. One of the best known instances of changes in animals through the effect of climatic streams is the butterfly. Standfuss, Fisher, Maryfield and others have experimented along this line. To take the work of only one of these students, Stadfuss raised about 42,000 pupae belonging to about 60 species. His method was to expose the eggs of the butterflies to various temperatures for longer or shorter periods.

By exposure above cold and heat he found that the colouring and other conditions of the butterfly, were altered. For instance, a butterfly called Vanessa Ivana has two distinct generations each year. The summer form of the creature lives during the warm part of the summer, while in the fall, there appears a distinctly different type. By subjecting the eggs which would naturally give rise to the summer generation to cold, the fall generation can be secured, or the reverse can be done by warming the eggs of the fall generation. When the eggs of another form called Vanessa Bratica are subjected to low temperature, they hatch as a variety Polaris, which lives in their planet. When the same eggs are subjected to great heat, they hatch into the variety

eggsmuffs, which lives in Corsica and Sardinia. In another experiment, Stadfus subjected the nymphae, or newly hatched young, of 50 species to temperatures ranging from negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit upward. The method was exposed the Nymphay to the low temperature twice per day for a period of from two to four hours. This was done for five or six days. Between whiles the Nymphay were kept at a temperature of over 40 degrees Fahrenheit. The change from warm to cold and back again was always gradual, lasting about half an hour.

With the Nymphae of these various species developed into butterflies, it was found that from 2% to 15% were variants from the ordinary type. of these variants were so extreme they might be classed as mutants. The degree of variability was in proportion to the lowness of the temperature. No mutants were observed when the temperature was reduced to 32 degrees even though this continued to 12 hours, but when it was lower to 23 degrees, unusual forms began to appear. When the same experiments were tried with high temperatures running up to 108 degrees and even 113, the same variability appeared.

In some cases the form of the mutants were the same, as in the cold experiments. But generally there was a difference. Some of the unusual forms are found in nature, and may be regarded as ancestral forms. This is especially true of the ones due to heat. This is natural since temperature above 100 degrees may occur on hot banks where the eggs are exposed to the sun, while extremely low temperatures are almost unknown at times when the new fay are developing. In general both extremes of temperature retard the development of the insects and the slower

development is accompanied by other changes. When the abidant insects were bred under normal conditions, there was a very slight inheritance of their abnormality, but not enough to be of great significance. For our present purpose, the importance of these butterfly experiments lies in the fact that they show how brief extremes of either heat or cold may alter the form of a species. It will be remembered that in a former chapter we saw that the that such extremes appear to have been the most notable feature of the climate of the glacial period. In earlier times during the Permian glaciation, they appear to have given rise to the habit of metamorphosis,

which the Nymphae of the butterflies illustrate. Moreover, such extremes, that they're less severe than in the glacial period, are one of the most marked characteristics of the climate of the United States. Cold waves alternating with hot waves occur in this country, not only in winter, but in summer when the eggs of creatures like the butterfly are hatching. Another set of experiments on insects has been conducted by Tower, chiefly in Tuxin, Arizona, at the Desert Laboratory at the Carnegie Institution of Washington. To that dried region, he brought beetles from Mexico, Illinois, and other less arid regions.

In this way, he obtained many mutants, some of which bridged true and thus perpetuated their variations. In many cases, the new environment selected certain types for preservation, and destroyed others, so that the inherent character of the insects was changed. These changes were evident not only in the color and pattern of the insects, but in other respects also. For instance, one type of beta was brought from Chicago to the desert laboratory at Tuxin. During the first winter, many insects died because they were not able to stand the drying effect of the arid climate. Those that survived were bred in Tuxin for some generations, and then apart were taken back to Chicago. There they proved quite unable to stand the cold winters because they could not give up their moisture fast enough.

In Arizona, they had been forced to hold much moisture, but in Chicago this caused them to freeze so that all perished. In still other cases, Towers beetles showed marked mutations which were passed on to latter generations. In all cases, he found that whatever changes take place occur quickly, the given species is subjected to climatic extremes, to which is not accustomed, In the next generation mutants arise, these start new lines. Those that are not adapted to the new conditions die off, or those that are adapted persist and give rise to new varieties. Here among the beetles we have the same sort of changes as among the butterflies, but with greater success in producing new and permanent varieties.

Let us take some other insects where the exact mechanism of changes has been followed. The Drosophila is a little fruit fly at about an eighth of an inch long. Everyone is seen it hovering in swarms over decaying fruit. This little creature has been the subject of some of the most careful bilateral studies ever made. They have been carried out by Morgan with the help of his students. For many generations the flies have been raised and their pedigrees have been kept as carefully as those of racehorses. In one of the experiments on these flies, Ms. Hodge selected those that had an unusual number of bristles on the sex comb, which is part of the leg.

Normally the male, which alone has the comb, has ten bristles in each comb. Ms. Hodg selected those having 11 or more, in order to see whether she could gradually obtain a strain having more than the normal number. During the fifth generation of these many bristled flies, there suddenly appeared various duplications of the legs that bore the combs. What caused this mutation no one knows, and all attempts to produce it in other animals have been in vain. When the abnormal flies were bred, their mutation was born. their mutation was inherited. It did not always take the same form, but there was some kind of a doubling of the limbs. When the flies lived at ordinary temperatures, the abnormality was slight and did not accord with them Mendelian laws of inheritance, which determined the proportion in which the qualities of the parents

will reappear in the offspring. For example, to take a very simple case, if white peas are pollinated, from the flowers of red peas, a quart of the next will be pink, showing the same mixture, In the case before us, the matter is merely more complex, but the probable occurrence of a given quality can be worked out in exact mathematical proportions. In cold weather, however, the abnormalities increased and came much nearer to following the Mendelian laws. Therefore, some experiments were tried similar to those already described in respect to butterflies. The X were placed in a temperature of about 50 degrees Fahrenheit instead of about 70 degrees, which was the usual conditions in the experimental rooms. The results of the best experiments are shown in the following table. A table is displayed on the page,

comparing the age of eggs or larvae when placed in the lower temperature, to the number of eggs had hatched, number that were abnormal, and percent that were abnormal. The important part of this table is the right-hand column. It shows that when the eggs were cooled at a very young stage. All of those that hatched were abnormal. There was some delay in cooling the eggs. The proportion of abnormality decreased until an average of about 10.

percent was reached. In other words, if the eggs were not cooled till after the fourth day, there was no more effect than when they were not cooled at all. Consider what this means. Suppose that for some unexplained reason, this mutant happened to arise in nature. If the flies were living in a climate where the temperature rarely fell to 50 degrees during that breeding period, the mutation would doubtless soon die out. If the climate should change, however, so that cool waves came frequently during the summer and lasted three or three years. or four days, the mutine might thrive so that before long it would become as abundant as the old species. Thus a new species or even a new genus, with an extra pair of legs might conceivably

arise. This would be more likely to happen because Miss Hodges' experiments show that when the eggs are cooled, the number that hatches is less than at higher temperatures. Thus the cool spells would diminish the normal forms and relatively increase the abnormal. All this is highly important, for we are working out certain far-reaching biological principles which apply to man, as well as to the lower insects. In connection with Miss Hulch's experiments, Plough, another Morgan's students, has carried on a still more conclusive series. Using the same fruit fly, Drosophila, he has tested what is known as crossing over.

Microscopic study of the nuclei of the reproductive cells shows that the factors which make up the inheritance of any organism are carried by the minute threads known as chromosomes. Ordinarily, the corresponding chromosomes from the male and female nuclei views into one and then split longitudinally in such a way that exactly half of each goes to each of the cells of the new organism whose development is beginning. Sometimes, however, the chromosomes do not unite in this simple way, but wind about one another or a crossover. Hence when the splitting begins, the parts of the nucleus that go to the two daughter cells are not exactly alike. This leads to a new combination of characteristics in the offspring,

so that decidedly new types are formed. In these experiments, Plough found that the amount of crossing over varies according to the temperature. This is illustrated in figure 25. In high parts of the curve represent the normal conditions where the offspring resemble the parents according to the Mendelian laws. The low parts mean that the percentage of abnormal or new forms increases. The little hooks at the end of the curve are of little importance since they are based on relatively few data and might disappear if further experiments were tried. At temperature above and below, those indicated in the curve, the flies perish.

The meaning of the curve is evident. When the motherflies are kept at low temperatures of 45 degrees to 55 degrees Fahrenheit during the critical period of the development of the eggs, there is a high percentage of crossing over. This reaches a minimum at about 71 degrees, remains low till about 80 degrees, and then increases rapidly at higher temperatures. An exposure of about two days is necessary in order to produce the new forms. This exposure is effective only when the eggs are in their earliest stages. Plow's curve is significant in many ways, is essentially the same as that which N-wing has worked out for similar changes in the insects known as aphids. At a temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, this creature produces the maximum number of wingless, non-reproductive forms, while at lower and higher temperatures the number of winged forms

with fully developed sex characteristics increases. Another similar curve is found by Howell for the contraction of the muscles of a frog's leg. The contraction being stronger at about 80 degrees Fahrenheit. In civilization and climate, I have given a series of similar curves, which include, one, with a maximum growth at about 85 degrees. 2. Infusodia, which reproduced most rapidly at about 83 degrees. 3. Krayfish, which are most active at 74 degrees. 4. Factory operatives who do the most work when the temperature of day and night

averages about 60 degrees with a noon temperature of 65 degrees to 70 degrees. And 5. The work of students with a maximum when the temperature averages about 40 degrees. We have seen in previous pages that a similar curve can be drawn for health with a maximum at an average temperature of 64 degrees Fahrenheit. Thus it appears that for each species there is a certain temperature at which the various functions take place most newly in the normal fashion. Above or below that temperature there are departures from the normal, and among insects these departures take the form of new varieties or mutants.

Likewise, as appears from Towers' work and from our study of the human death rate, there is an optimum humidity above a blow, which there may be similar changes, although this is not so well demonstrated. Let us now turn from insects to some of the higher animals and see what effect changes of environment have upon their offspring. Tamaro has caused what seemed to be hereditary changes by subjecting the nurse toad, alights obstetricans to high temperature. This animal is a small toad-like amphibian, about two inches long, with a grey colour, plump form and waxy skin.

It is remarkable as the only European batrachian, in which the male helps in rearing the offspring. Hence the name. The eggs are larger than those of related animals. They are also fewer and have more yolk. At the time of spawning, they are stuck together in two stages, which the male twists around his legs. He then returns to his usual horns, among stones and sticks. The nurse toad is thoroughly terrestrial, but prefers moist places and feeds at night. On very dry nights, it may enter the water in order to keep the eggs sufficiently moist.

Three weeks after the eggs have been laid, the male regularly enters the water and stays here until all the eggs are hatched, and the young tadpoles are swimming freely about. Kramer kept the toads at a temperature of 77 degrees to 86 degrees Fahrenheit, a temperature which is rare in the cool, shady places frequented by the animals in central Europe. This led them to seek the water, and there the egg laying and fertilization took place. The gelatinous envelopes of the eggs, which usually remain unswollen, sticky on the land, swelled up and would not adhere to the male's legs. Hence the young developed freely in the water without the parental care.

After this had happened during several of the breeding periods, of which two, three or four occur each summer, the toads acquired the habit of going to the water, and the eggs became more numerous and smaller. More important that this, however, is a fact that, according to Camero, the offspring produced in this way, showed a change of habits like that of their parents. At the time for reproduction, they sought the water even kept at the normal temperature, and lay their eggs there.

Moreover, in the fourth generation there appeared on the forefinger of the male a swollen pad, which was absent in the race that Camero began experimenting with, but seems to have belonged to ancestral types. As the change in climatic conditions seems to have caused a permanent mutation. The mutation, to be sure, like some of those of the butterflies, seems to have been back towards an ancestral form. This, however, by no means indicates the mutations may not take place in the opposite direction. Such seems to have been the case with Hodges Drosophila, where the change if carried far enough might lead to a wholly new type of fly with an additional pair of legs. By exposing the larvae of the nurse to cold conditions, Camero produced results of quite a different kind.

It prolonged the larval condition even to the time of sexual maturity. When the offspring of such forms were placed under normal conditions of temperature, the abnormal duration of immaturity was found to be inherited. Here, as in the other cases, the inherited effect appears to be produced very early in the life of the organism. The heat to which the toads were subjected apparently influenced the eggs while they were still in the mother's body. mother's body, and the cold of the other experiment was effective at an almost equally early period. In this respect, the toads resemble all the insects for which exact data are available. Thus far, we have been dealing with changes produced in the offspring of cold-blooded animals. Let us now take up some experiments with warm-blooded creatures whose response is presumably

much the same as that of man. During the years 1906 to 1911, Sumner carried on a series of experiments to test effect of heat and cold upon white mice. It divided his 2,300 animals into two groups which were kept in separate rooms for the beginning of November to the end of March. One room resembled an ordinary unheated attic. Its mean temperature was about 39.5 degrees Fahrenheit and the main relative humidity approximately 75%. The other room was heated and a mean temperature of 72.5 degrees Fahrenheit and a relative humidity of approximately 30%. The rooms varied a good deal however, especially the

cool room which was subject to essentially the same fluctuations as the outside air. During the remaining seven months, both sets of mites was transferred to a common room, which averaged a little cooler than the warm room, either became disheightly warmer in midsummer. On four occasions a second generation was raised from mice that had been subjected to either the warm or cold rooms. The total number of such mice for which measurements are available is 879. It was impossible to raise the third generation, for the mice were attacked, by some disease or weakness which prevented reproduction. This happened to both the warm room and cold room animals.

It apparently had nothing to do with the temperature. The warm room animals suffered more than the others, however, which suggests that their relation to temperature may be like that of man. The mice which lived in the warm and cold rooms, respectively, from their very birth, showed you the distinct or systematic variations when measured with great accuracy at various stages. The cold-room animals seemed to depart most widely from the ancestral type. The most notable differences were that when the length of the tail and foot were compared with the length of the body,

the warm-room mice had relatively longer tails and feet. This occurred were the conditions among many tropical animals when compared with related species in the north. Perhaps the large feet of negroes are due to similar conditions. Lengthening of the ear appears in many of the warm-room animals, but was by no means so distinct as the lengthening of the tail and foot. In general, the length of the body was greater in the warm room than in the cold, but this is not constant. Other characteristics such as weight and hairiness seem to have no direct relation to temperature.

Thus it appears that while the room temperature produced modifications in the relative length of different parts of the body, it did not produce what may be called adaptive modifications. It is true that in general the rodents of warm countries appear to have greater length of tail and foot than those of cold countries, but there is no evidence that this is of any particular value in the struggle for existence. Apparently mutations may occur in any direction without respect to the causative agent. It may happen that they are useful, as would be the case of the hair were thicker in the coats of the cold room mice. Under such circumstances, the mutation would be of value and would presumably be preserved. When the mice that had been reared in the warm and cold rooms were bred separately in the common room,

their offspring displayed the same characteristics as their modified parents. This happened even when a period of five months had elapsed, since the parents were removed from the cold and warm rooms and placed in the common room. Therefore, it seems to represent a real inheritance. Moreover, the variations the second generation were more constant than in the first, so that the relative weight and the length of the years seemed to vary as constantly and regular, as to the relative length of the tail and foot. This appears in the following table based on 752 mice.

The figures show the average amount by which the warm room mice exceeded the cold room mice when comparisons were made between animals having the same length of body. The table displayed on the page, excess of warm room mice over cold room mice when animals with the same length of body are compared. Every one of the numbers is positive. therefore it seems hard to avoid the conclusion that the parent mice were themselves modified directly by the climatic conditions, and that they pass these modifications on to their descendants. This is not mean necessarily that there is any such thing as the inheritance of acquired characteristics.

It seems rather than meaning that during the very early life of an animal, the germplasmal reproductive tissue is subject to changes in response to external environment. This is suggested by the fact that when some are exposed to adult mice to low temperatures, know that they nor their offspring were affected. On the other hand, a small number of mice were born of parents that had been kept in the cold room during the first two weeks of their lives, but were then transferred to the warm room. The offspring of these mice showed the characteristic cold room variations.

Thus it looks as if the first two weeks were the critical time. This is especially interesting in view of the fact that they're doing early life, as Sumner conclusively proves, the blood temperature of the white mouse, as of all young mammals, is not constant. arise in response to the external air. In the adult mouse, however, the variations in temperature are very slight and can be detected with certainty only when the animal is subjected to very sudden and marked changes of temperature. Thus it appears that when the animal is young and its body temperature can be reduced to a low level, the germplasm is influenced. This conclusion is of the

utmost significance. It agrees with all that we have seen as to variations in butterflies, beetles, flies, aviates and toads. It shows a special agreement with the highly exact work done by Morgan's pupils on the trosophila fly. Of course the body of evidence thus far available to slight, but it all points in one direction. Apparently the tissues of animals are especially sensitive to extremes of heat or cold during a limited stage in their development. Among insects the most sensitive period seems to be as soon as the eggs begin the process of growth within the body of the mother. Since insects are cold-blooded, the mothers body necessarily shares the changes of temperature occurring in the outside air.

Among warm blooded animals, if the white mouse may serve as the type, the most sensitive period appears to be immediately after birth. While the young are within the mother's body, they probably are not influenced by changes in the outside temperature. At birth, however, they are still extremely immature and their germ plasm is apparently still susceptible of changes. While inheritance from its parents gives to the young animal most of its characteristics, The conditions of the air immediately after its birth apparently have a certain modifying effect.

The new characteristics thus acquired appear to be measurable and to be capable of transmission to offspring. This fact perhaps explains why glacial periods have been times such rapid evolution. Not only have the sudden extremes of heat and cold then cause a rapid extinction of old species, but the same climatic extremes may have caused rapid and pronounced mutations so that new species and genera were produced in great numbers. If these conclusions are true, the animals of extremely hot or cold regions ought to show large numbers of new or unusual characteristics. A.H. Clark has investigated this question as respect to the crinoids, near relatives of the starfishes.

He finds that the optimum temperature of the crinoids is not far from 60 degrees. Those living in water near this temperature confirm quite closely to the standard type of their class. In unusually warm or cold water, on the contrary, aberrant types are numerous. This looks as if the warm or cold conditions caused variations, while the optimum allows a standard type to reproduce itself unchanged. That this is really the case is further suggested by various other cases cited by Clark. For example, the asymmetrical narwhal is exclusively Arctic, while another group of equally apparent whales lives within the tropics. The anthropoid apes, which are pronouncedly left or right-handed, live in very warm regions. The hornbill rhinoplax, with an uneven tail, a solid cask, a naked patch on the back of the head,

and other peculiarities is found in warm Malayan regions, while the crossbills with the tips of the mandibles crossed and a corresponding distortion of the bones of the head are all subartic or cold temperature forms. So too, Clark points out that the owls with one ear greatly larger than the other all appear to inhabit cold regions. Among the fishes, the very asymmetrical anaplurbs, lives in the warm tracts, tropical literal, and the asymmetrical forms of amphixels, using the term in its broadest sense, occur in warm regions, while the flat fissures are chiefly developed either in warm tropical waters or in those that are cold. Since the great majority of animals are symmetrical, any departure from symmetry attracts attention

and makes this quality an easy one to study. Lack of symmetry may or may not be important in the life history of the animal, but it is at least an indication that the creature has suffered some mutation. The chances are large that other mutations also accompany the changes in symmetry. Among the crinoids, Clark's work seems to demonstrate that this is the case. Hence the relative abundance of asymmetrical or aberrant forms in temperature which depart far from the optimum seem to suggest that mutations are actually due to extremes of temperature.

If this is so, it may have a most important bearing upon the powers and capacities of mankind. End of Section 9. Section 10 of World Power and Evolution by Osworth Huntington. This is a Libby Vox according, or Libby Vox recordings of the public domain. For more information to volunteer, please visit Libbyvox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 10. The Origin of New Types Among Men Having been acquired into the cause of variations among animals, we are ready to ask why they occur among men? Why did so many races of men arise during the glacial period? Why were there so many great men in age in Greece? Why so many in Italy during the 14th century and in England since

the days of Shakespeare and Newton? In a gang of boys, why is there generally a leader who starts things? In his little way, such a boy is Napoleon or an Alexander. He is one of the variants, or perhaps even one of the mutants, whose biological importance we have discussed in the preceding chapter. Does the world need mutants? In the half-led library, the catalogue contains seven and one-half drawers, or about 4,700 cards under the name of William Shakespeare. The two names before and after that are the great poet are Shakery and Shakuratov, each with only one card. Why such a discrepancy? Why should Abraham Lincoln have 498 cards, while Barnabas Lincoln has only one and Benjamin Lincoln three? The same

The same catalogue contains 157 cards under the name of that strange mixture of good and bad called Machiavelli, and 38 under the sentimental brute named Nero. Still more remarkable is the fact that there are seven cards under Dukes, a name that stands for the lowest depths of crime vice and degradation. Why should this be when millions of most esteemable citizens find no place either in the catalogue or in history? The answer is that esteemable citizens are usually much like other people, while Shakespeare, Spirio, Lincoln, Machiavelli, Niro, and the Duke's family were very different. Variability is what attracts attention. It is the variant, the man with new ideas, new methods, and new impulses, who makes the great success in business.

It is the variant, with new ideas, who commits the crimes that curdle the blood. If an individual departs far from the average, on the bad side of the ledger, we try to suppress him during life and hold him up as a terrible example after death. If he departs far on the good side, we laugh at him, oppose him, misunderstand him, praise him, or neglect him, as a case may be, while he lives, but after he is dead, we write books about him and give his name to our streets, our clubs, and our children. It is almost impossible to everestimate the importance of variability. Every gardener knows that if plants always breed true, we should never have such things as the

double rose, the seedless orange and the sweet corn. We should have to be content with the single wild rose, the sour wild orange and the small and tasteless wild corn. Among animals, this same variability has given us the stocky percheren, the slender racehorse, the shaggy pony, all from the same species. Among men we have not only white and black, Jew and Gentile, Teuton and Slav, but high brows and low brows, and dainty society bells and cords featured factory girls. Such variability is a great advantage. It is indeed regrettable that every high type must have its corresponding low type, but society can restrain the activities of the low, far more easily than it can dispense with the guidance and inspiration of the high. Blot out a thousand names from religion and philosophy, another thousand from politics and equal numbers from art, literature and science.

These 5,000 amount to about one in 300,000 compared to the people now living, or perhaps one in ten million or more among the people who have lived since the days of the Hebrew patriarchs. But take away the contribution of this ten millionth of the human race, and where would civilization be today? Since the man who caused most of the world's progress, and also its worst misery, are all extreme types, but it becomes highly important to discover the reasons for such variations. Doubtless there are many reasons, but only two seem as yet to be well enough understood to warrant attention. in this book. The first is mixture of races or types, a process whose effect a few students would question. The other is climatic extremes like those discussed in the last chapter.

Their effect is so little understood that we must consider some of the evidence in detail. To begin with, the mixture of types, in an ordinary peasant village of almost any long-settled country, especially in regions that are backward, one family is almost like another. For centuries, few brides have been brought from other versions. and few men have come from outside. All the families are therefore related and are virtually the same inheritance. Hence new types rarely arise through the union of parents with divergent qualities. If any chance such a type does it rise is found upon and discouraged.

Only minds are more than usual originality can appreciate the new idea evolved by similar minds that depart from the standard type. Among the upper classes and among people who travel, diverse, types intermarry much more than among conservative peasants. In cities of Tennessee is accentuated by the fact that the unusual minds of the villages are up to drift citywood, where they mate with others of their kind. Thus, for good or for ill, city children vary more than country children. This is one reason why Cattell's study of men of science

shows an increasing tendency for the proportion of eminent men born in cities and their suburbs to increase faster than the general population of such places. New countries are like cities, as the moody or trifling country boy goes to the city and is recognized as a genius, so the pilgrim, Puritans, Huguenots and others came to America because their queerness made them a misfit at home. It made them great, however, in the world's history. Such immigrants, unfortunately, are scanty now, but when a Russian nihilist marries a Spanish artist in the environment of Chicago, their children are likely to be unusual. This new countries even more than old cities are up to produce mutants.

It is not by accident that Radosovchievich finds that the study of thousands of American European school children shows that while the average conditions of height, weight, head form, hair, lung capacity, dynamic power, activity the senses and so forth are very much alike for both American and European pupils. The Americans vary more than their European brothers and sisters at all the school ages. Such varriability promises men of genius, but it also promises an equal number of exceptionally low and dangerous types. Mixture of races is clearly not the only cause of the variability that ensures progress.

The Jews furnish strong evidence of this, for though they are one of the purest races, they are also one of the most variable. It is highly probable that they owe this characteristic in part to some one or more factors, which is yet are completely beyond our ken. Nevertheless, a study of the Jews suggests that the climatic conditions which seem to cause variations in butterflies, beetles, fruitflies, aphids, nurse toads, and mice, may also cause similar variations in man. This is of such great importance in guiding man's future development that we shall consider it fully. We shall confine ourselves largely to the Jews because they are the only race for which sufficiently full data seems to be available. There is, however, every reason to suppose that the lessons to be learned from the Jews apply to all races.

In studying the Jews, we must satisfy ourselves as to three points. First, is there good evidence that the Jewish race is highly variable. Second, how far is the Jewish race a pure stock? And third, is there any reason to think that the Jews really change in response to their physical environment? As to the variability, we may quote, Redosovlevich in regard to his study of Europeans and American school children. Hebrew children, both in American abroad, show the greatest variation. Then it comes the Anglo-Saxon, then the Latin.

Belize variation is shown by the Slav pupils. Another evidence of the extreme variability of the Jews is our own observation. Is there any race among which we have known a greater contrast between the ones who we admire and those whom we would gladly do without? Turning to the world at large, we see strong evidence of the variable quality of the race in the number of men of genius whom it has produced. Moses, David, Isaiah, Peter, Paul and Jesus. These are a few of the great names of the past. The two Mentosons, Neander, Hain, Brands, the Herschels, the Rothschilds, and Disbeati,

shown how many lines modern Jews have risen far from above the average level. Compare at this race with the Negroes, both their own. have endured most bitter persecution, but the Jew is always bobbed up, as one may say, while the Negro stayed down. Look through any scientific bibliography, or any list of business leaders in a city like New York, and see how thickly the Jewish names are sprinkled. Make what allowance you will for opportunities and environment. Perhaps southern slavery was worse than the repression in pogroms of the Russian Pole. In New York, however, it is hard to see when the Jews have parents were slain and tortured in the Russian massacres have any great advantage than the

Negroes whose grandparents were whipped in Louisiana. Yet see how the Negroes drop out of the upper grades in the elementary schools, become scarce in the high schools and disappear from the colleges, see how the Jews on the contrary elbow the Gentiles out of Columbia, New York University and other higher institutions. Scores of those same Jews will later sit in high seats as businessmen, professors, diplomats and philanthropists. To be sure there are about ten times as many Jews as Negroes in New York but in the higher walks of life there must be a hundred Jews for one Negro. The difference between the Hebrew and the colored races is far greater than the amount by which the average Jew excels the average Negro.

Few scientists would dare maintain that the Jews as a whole average twice as cabal as the Negroes. Yet today and throughout most of history Jews have been tenfold perhaps a hundredfold more influential than colored men. Since In recent places like New York, the social and physical environment can play only the smallest part in this contrast between the races. It seems as if the difference must be due to the fact that the Hebrew race is highly variable, while the Negro race goes to the opposite extreme and displays great uniformity. The variability of the Hebrew race seems to manifest itself, not only in the number of unusually gifted men, but in the degree to which the race as a whole appears to adapt itself to new environments.

In order to understand this matter, let us try to gain a clear idea of the physical characteristics of the Jews. It is well recognized that there are two main branches. The Ashkenazim center, chiefly in Poland, and spread out to the neighboring parts of Russia, Germany and Austria, and Austria, and even to Romania and the Caucasus. They form nearly nine-tenths of the race. The other branch is the Shafadim, who center in Spain and Portugal, but have spread to other Mediterranean countries as well as to Holland and England, among the Ashkenazim blonde or red hair, and grey or blue eyes are much more common than among their Mediterranean brothers. Speaking roughly about 20% belong to this type.

The beard of the Ashkenazim is apt to be shorter than that of the Sheridim, the body stouter and the general aspect of less melancholy. And even more widespread quality is that the heads of the northern Jews is that of the Ashkenazim are broader and have higher cheek bones than those of those of the people. the southern Sheffodim. So great is the difference that the Jews, the Caucasus are uncommonly broad-headed, while those of North Africa are markedly long-headed. In addition to the general difference between the two branches of the race, there are still more significant differences between the various parts of the Ashkenazim. A comparison of the Jewish and non-Jewish parts of the population

in different sections of Germany, Poland, Austria, Russia, Romania and Bulgaria, shows that both the statue in the shape of the head vary among the Jews, almost exactly as among the Gentiles. On the other hand, the degree of blondeness, by no means, verifies in harmony, without its surrounding non-Jewish population. Thus it appears that the Jewish race is so variable that its different portions present distinct racial characteristics. This brings up the extremely difficult question of racial purity.

There are evidently three main physical traits in which the Jews vary from place to place. These are, first, stature, with which may be associated weight, second, and the two, second complexion and third of the form of the head. Are the variations in these due to intermarriage with the surrounding Gentile population? The only other possible causes seem to be economic conditions and climate. Let us begin by saying what relation to complexion has to each of these three, that is, to racial mixture, economic conditions and climate. Whatever may have been the cause in later times, it is almost certain that in biblical days

the Hebrews intermarried with various other races who may have introduced, to blonde strain. Of these was the Emirates, who were supposed to have been an Aryan people. Esau was red and David was ruddy. Later the Jews intermarried somewhat with other races in the early days of the Christian era, and also received some converts, who presumably more or less bond. Thus from remote times, there has been a blonde strain among the Jews. Among the Sheffhardin by the Mediterranean regions, this strain slightly disappeared, possibly this is due to intermarriage with the dark Mediterranean races, but there is no direct evidence of this. The same darkening of the race has taken place among the Greeks, Romans, and perhaps the Spaniards.

In classical times, the proportion of fairy-haired blue-eyed persons among the Greeks and Romans was quite surely much larger than at present. Witness the painted statues in the museum on the acropolis at Athens. This type doubtless disappeared in part because the victorious Greeks and Romans intermarried with the dark slaves whom they brought from their provinces. In addition to this, however, it appears that in countries as hot and sunny as the lands around the Mediterranean Sea, a fair skin is a disadvantage. The blonde type is there more prone to disease than the dark type, hence it gradually disappears. Economic conditions may possibly favour people of one complexion more than those of another, but this is very doubtful. The disappearance of the blonde type, however, seems to have been hastened by the climate changes,

we have discussed, for those changes apparently decreased the cloudiness and storminess, which are favourable to people with fair skins. Hence even if the Mediterranean Jews have not intermarried with their neighbours, we should expect them to have become darker during the past 2,000 years. Farther north, the case is different. In the monograph on the Jews, Fischberg gives tables showing that, on an average, about 20 or possibly 30% of the Jews in Central and Eastern Europe are more or less blonde. It is hard to see how economic conditions could have much to do with this, but it accords with what we should expect on the basis of climate.

The fair complexions derived from the early Amarites would persist in the more northern climate, or they would die out farther south. Of course, the degree of bloodness would vary from region to region in accord with the character of the regional settlers, but how do we know that the bloodliness comes from remote ancestors and not from intermarriage with the surrounding Gentiles during recent country? centuries. Fishbird makes this clear. The blondeest Jewish population is by no means found in the region where the surrounding population is fairest. If the complexion of the Jews depended upon intermarriage with their neighbours, the greatest percentage of blonde Jews ought to be found in such places as northern Germany, where the Germans are fair, while the percentage should be much smaller in places like Galicia, where the non-Jewish population is dark. Yet such is by no means

a case, in fact the reverse is more nearly true. I emphasize this point because the complexion is one of the characteristics which most clearly indicates racial mixture. Everyone knows how a strain of white blood shows itself in a necro or a strain of Italian blood in an Anglo-Saxon family. If the complexions do not indicate intermarriage between the Jews and their neighbours, it is hard to believe that much mixture of the races has taken place. The question of stature unlike that a complexion, will not help us much in determining whether the variability of the Jews is due to intermarriage or to environment. The Mediterranean Jews are shorter than those of Central Europe, but this may be due equally well to climate, to intermarriage, or to economic conditions.

In Central Eastern Europe, the Jews are systematically a little shorter than their Gentile neighbours. This may arise either from some racial inheritance, dating to remote times, or from economic conditions. Poverty, indoor occupations such as tailoring and life and villages instead of on farms are quite enough to account for the relative shortness of the Jews. But how about the fact that the Jews vary in height almost exactly as do their Gentile neighbours? Where the Gentiles are tore as Fishburg's tables show, the Jews are also tall, although not quite equal to the others.

This looks like an effect of economic conditions in most cases, but not in all. Although the most poverty-stricken regions such as Galicia show the shortest stature for both Jews and Gentiles, the tallest statues do not show so obvious of relation to economic conditions. When we consider the form of the head, we find ourselves confronted by a most puzzling problem. So far as we are aware, the shape of people's heads cannot be influenced by their food, their occupation, or their social and economic condition. Nor can we see how climatic selection could weed out one type of head as it weeds out one type of complexion. In fact, the shape of the head has been supposed to be one of the most

stable racial characteristics and to be one of the most invalible features of man's physical inheritance. Here the heads of the Jews appear to vary in harmony with those of the people who live around them. Look at this little table adapted from Fischberg. It shows a width of the head and percentage of the length, that is, the cephalic index. The first column shows the index for Jews and the second for the non-Jews who live in the same region. A high index it will be remembered means a broadhead. Table is displayed on the page with four columns. The list of locations compared to cephalic index,

cephalic index of other races, and differences. A few scattered facts from Holland, where the cephalic index of the country as a whole, is not far from 80, indicate that the Jews also have a lower index than any given in the table. In North Africa, where the people are very long-headed

with an index not far from 76, only four measurements of Jews are available, but they average 75.8. Where is remembered that, according to Ripley, the Civalic Index of the Races of Europe varies from 73 to 87, it will be seen that the differences indicated in the third column of the table are slight. Fischberg, following the ordinary canons of anthropology, attempts to explain this as a result of intermarriage. He thinks that there must have been so many illicit unions of Hebrew women with Gentile men that the head form of the two parts of the population has everywhere become the same. This can scarcely be the case.

In the first place, it is inherently improbable. Jewish men have doubtless had many children by Gentile women, but they are not reckoned as Jews. Jewish girls, on the other hand, are more carefully guarded than Gentile girls. They are married young, and they are strongly imbued with racial prejudices. In the second place, as we have already seen, Fishburg has himself shown that the complexion of the Jewish population gives no hint much racial mixture in recent times. It is scarcely possible that the form of their heads of a race should change through intermarriage

or their complexion remains unaltered. Hence in spite of Fishberg's aspersions upon the women of his own race, there seems reason to believe that the Jews are racially comparatively pure, and that the peculiar facts in regard to the shape of their heads are suspectable of some other explanation. This brings us to our third question. Is there any reason to think that the Jews really change in respect? response to their fiscal environment. About a decade ago, Boas measured some 30,000 immigrants and their children in New York City. These measurements apparently show that the

stature and form of their head among children born to immigrants in this country differ systematically from those of their parents. This conclusion was received with great skepticism. I confess that on reading Boss's preliminary report, I shared this feeling. Lately, however, I have read his final report where the full figures are given and have considered in the light of the biological experiments described in the preceding chapter. This, together the facts already outlined as to the Jews in Europe, has led me to revise my opinion. Although Bois's work has been severely and even bitterly criticised, I cannot see that the criticism does more than show that in minor details the work might be improved, and that he has sometimes

used such phrases as exceedingly long, when he ought to have said longer than usual. As he himself says, the investigation was made hastily. and the results are so important that they cannot be accepted as final until a great deal more work has been done. Nevertheless, it seems to me that in the face of all the facts we can scarcely avoid the conclusion that a change of environment may cause an alteration in man's physical form and presumably in its mental reactions. If this is true, we must at once recognise that one of the most pressing scientific problems of the next few decades is the discovery of just how these changes act, when people of various races migrate from one environment to another.

The results obtained by Boas, are briefly as follows. In 1908, under the direction of the United States Immigration Commission, Bowers measured approximately 30,000 immigrants and children of immigrants. He adopted was to see whether there is any measurable fiscal difference between immigrants and their children, or between children of the same parents born in this country and abroad. One of the races included in the study was the Scotch, but they showed no appreciable effects,

probably because the change in their environment was much less than in the case of the other immigrants. Another race was the East European Hebrews, including those from Poland and the neighboring regions in Russia, Germany, Austria, and Romania. These showed the maximum effect, and were in all points influenced, as we should expect, from the facts already before us.

Another group was the Bohemians, Slovakans, and Poles from the same general region as the Hebrews. They showed the same changes as their Jewish countrymen. As all these non-Jewish types react similarly, and as it was not easy to separate them, they may be grouped together. Two other groups consisted respectively of Sicilians and of Italians from the part of Italy south of Rome. These two groups showed distinct changes, especially the Sicilians, but the changes were

not of the same type as those of the Jews and the Bohemian group. While we describe the changes, a few general facts should be before us. In the first place, Bowers found no evidence of any distinct physical change in adult immigrants. In the second place, he found that when very young children come to this country, they suffer slight changes of the same kind as is occurring in children born here, but not of great significance. Thirdly, children born in this country show distinct and symmetrical differences from their brothers and sisters born abroad.

These differences increase in proportion to the length of time since the mother came to the United States, or at least they are greater in the children born after the mothers have been here ten years than when the mothers have been here a shorter time. Finally, the break between the foreign born and the American born is sharp, and it's far more pronounced than the difference between the children born earlier and later in this country. Now as to the nature of the changes. One of the first subjects of inquiry is complexion. This was examined with care, but no consistent changes were observed. Apparently, the complexions of children born of foreign parents in this country are identical with what they would be if the children were born abroad. This agrees with what we have seen as to the Jews in Europe.

It is quite possible that life for generation after generation in some parts of America might weed out the blonde children, while life in other parts might weed out the darkest type. Thus there might arise a change such as that, which seems to have differentiated the Mediterranean Jews of the Shephardim type from the Central European Jews of the Ashkanazian type. Such a change, however, is quite different from the southern changes with which we are now dealing. The next point to claim attention is stature. For the age of five at which the measurements begin, the statue among the American-born children of East European Jews and of the non-Jewish group

from the same region is greater than the statue of similar children born in the old country. Among the Italians, on the contrary, the reverse is the case. The Sicilian children born in this country are distinctly shorter than their brothers and sisters born in Sicily. Among the immigrants from the southern mainland of Italy, who are mostly Nepalitians, the same tenancy is observed, but to a less degree. The question arises whether these changes can be due to economic conditions. If the stature increased in all cases, we might feel quite sure that the greater opportunities, higher wages, and more varied food of America were the cause.

If all the American-born children showed a decrease in stature, we might attribute it to the congestion of life in a big city. Among the Jews, the change in the mode of life on coming to America is less than among any of the other races. They were town dwellers and sedentary workers in the old world, and so they are in the new. It is doubt for whether they have changed their food anymore than do the others, if as much.

Therefore, the group that suffers the smallest change in general, habits, shows the greatest change in stature. This is surprising, but perhaps it is merely an evidence of the great plasticity of the Hebrews as a race. If economic conditions are the cause of the increased stature of the non-Jewish Bohemian group, we must suppose that better food offsets the disadvantage of city life compared with country life, and thus leads to greater stature. Among the Sicilians, on the contrary, we must suppose that the confined city life in New

York and possibly the absence of the fresh fruit and vegetables. to which they were accustomed in Sicily have a depressing effect upon stature. The other Italians are influenced a little in the same way. On the whole, we may conclude that the changes in stature may perhaps be due to economic conditions, although there is nothing to prove that this is the case. The state of affairs in the respect is almost identical with that which we have described in relation to stature among the Jews in Europe. An economic explanation may be possible, but is not convincing. Turning now to the form of the head, we find that the Jews show the greatest change.

The heads of the children born in this country are larger and narrower than those similar children born abroad. This causes the cephalic index to be lower by about three points. The difference is not great, but it is remarkably systematic so that its reality can scarcely be doubted. Among the Bohemians and other non-Jewish peoples from East Central Europe, Both the length and the width of the head decrease, but as the width decreases more than the length, the head becomes a little narrower. Hence the cephalic index drops a little, but not so much as in the case of the Jews. Here we have a central unity between the Jews and the people who live around them. If we suppose that the environment causes the changes in the head form,

we at once find the explanation of the fact that in Europe the cephalic index, the Jews everywhere, approached so closely to that of the other races in the same region. Turning now to the Italians, we find that among them the form of the head changes, but not in the same fashion as among the more northern people. In both Italian groups, the length of the head decreases and the width increases, so that the cephalic index, contrary to that of the Jews, shows an increase. In estimating the importance of the work of Boas, it is highly significant that the most systematic difference between children born abroad and in New York is the shape of the shape of the importance of the

shape of the head. Stature may be influenced by economic conditions, but in the head we have an organ whose form apparently has nothing to do with such conditions. The objector may say that there are other possible causes of changes in the head form. Boas has carefully investigated this. For instance, he considers the kind of pillars on which children lie, and the practice of swaddling infants which prevails largely in Europe but is soon given up on coming to this country. There seems no reason, however, to think that the changes in the shape of the children's heads

are due to any such mechanical causes. Another possible objection is that it is unreasonable that the same environment should act in one way on the Italians and in another on the people from farther north. The answer lies in one of Aesop's fables. Was it the fox or some other animal that refused to have anything to do with an inconsistent creature like a man who blows on his fingers to warm them and on his soup to cool it. We all know that coffee that is painfully hot to one throat may be highly refreshing to another, and does not alcohol make some people affectionate and others prognatius?

The South Italians must be remembered, and especially the Sicilians, represent the extreme Mediterranean type of man, while the Jews and the Bohemian group represent quite different racial types. Moreover, the physical environment of Italy, with its long monotonous dry summers, is very different from that of East Central Europe, with its long monotonous cold winters. Both again are in strong contrast with New York, with its cold variable winters and its warm for viable summers. The fact that no changes could be detected in the Scottish children strengthens the force

of Boas' argument. When the Scottish come to the United States, the change both in physical environment and in mode of life is much less than for the other races. Yet even among the Scotch, the new environment may cause changes of many kinds that were not measured by boas. There may be pronounced changes in mental reactions which cannot be detected by the calibers. It is indeed most significant that the greatest evidence of physiological change arising from a new habitat should be in the head. We have already seen that the most noteworthy fact in all man's later evolution is a rapidity of mental development. The brain appears to be the most plastic part of the human organism.

We have also seen that at the present time the effect of environment and of health upon mental processes seems to be even more important than their effect on the so-called lower functions such as nutrition. If a change of an environment can alter the form by the head, it seems only a reasonable degree with Boas in the conclusion that it is still more likely to alter the mental processes. Finally, let me hark back once more to the surprising agreement between the results of Fishberg in his study of European Jews and a Boas in his study of immigrants. I emphasize the importance of this because the strength of any conclusion is much more than doubled when it's based upon two independent lines of evidence. Moreover, although Fishberg and Boas assisted one another, Boas, whose work was done later, does not appear to have recognized a remarkable way in which his results are supported by those of Fishburne.

This arises partially from the fact that Boas, in accordance with long habit, is prone to attribute as much as possible to purely economic causes and to events which happen in accordance with man's own artificial surroundings. While Vichberg, in accordance with the well-established usage of ethnology and anthropology, is inclined to attribute as much as possible to racial mixture. Since racial mixture obviously has nothing to do with Bois's results, and since it probably has only the slightest influence upon the fact that, described by Fishburg, we seem forced to conclude that the differences between American-born and foreign-born children of immigrants are due to environment. The question then is, what particular features of the environment are responsible? Boas, as I've said, seems inclined to attribute the changes to the urban environment. He shows that Ammon in Baden and Livy in Italy have found evidence that on the whole the people of the cities have slightly longer heads than those of the country. districts around them. These authors, however, believe that this is merely because of cities

that they investigate, lie in regions where the average length of the people's heads is less than in the more remote districts, whence many of the people of the city were originally drawn. Hence the presence of people from a distance increases the average length of the city heads. Bois accepts this idea, but tries also to show that in Italy this factor is not enough to account for the observed differences. His argument is interesting. But unlike his study of immigrants in New York, it is based largely on assumptions, and hence is not conclusive. Several facts seem to oppose the idea that the change from country to city is the cause of the changes in head form. In the first place, the Jews, in whom the head assumes the most distinctly new shape, are the very immigrants whose former life is most like that of their new homes.

The South Italian, who has lived, or at least worked all day, are his own vines, and then has suddenly dropped. into a New York tenement and a New York factory suffers a tenfold greater economic and industrial change that experienced by the Jewish tailor or shopkeeper who was always lived in a stuffy room in the midst of a closely packed village. In the second place the change the city life offers no explanation of the peculiar conditions in Europe where the form of the Jewish heads agrees so closely with that of the non-Jewish. And this fact can scarcely be separated from the phenomena in New York. Therefore it seems necessary to fall back on some other explanation.

The explanation which seems to me most reasonable is that the changes in head form are due to the conditions of the air, including not only what we commonly call climate, but also the indoor air and ventilation. I am well aware that already the reader has said to himself that I'm doing exactly what I have accused Boas and Fishburg of doing. I am letting myself be influenced by a mode of thought which has become habitual. I grant this freely. No man, no matter how unbiased he may attempt to be, can disassociate himself from the ideas which have been in his mind for years.

I can only say that from 1910 when I first heard of Boas's results until early in 1918. I refused to let my climatic predilections persuade me. Then for quite a different purpose, I assembled the biological facts presented in the last chapter. They seemed to indicate conclusively that extremes of heat, cold and dryness may cause distinct and far-reaching changes in animals of many types. Therefore I was forced to believe that in man the same thing may happen. The changes in the head form and probably in the stature of the Jews appear to be closely analogous to those in the length of body, tail, foot and ear in white mice. They also appear to be analogous to the changes in flies and other insects.

We have already seen that the changes in the bodily form of the Jews from place to place in Europe can scarcely be due to racial mixture, economic conditions or climatic selection. Neither can the changes in the borderly form of the children of immigrants in New York be due to these causes. So far as I can see, the one factor that does not differ from place to place in such a way as to produce the observed results is the variability of the climate. This factor, as we have seen, is extremely susceptible to variations, not only from place to place but from year to year and month to month. While the main temperature of a given month varroise only a few degrees from year to year, one month may have four or four or two degrees from year to year, one month may have four or four or four or two, or five times as many cold waves and hot waves as another. The most mild climatic difference between eastern and western Europe is the greater monotony

on the cold winter weather in the east. Similarly, the chief difference between Italy and Poland, for example, is the monotony of the long Sicilian summer compared with the relative variability of the same season farther north. Finally, the outstanding contrast between the eastern United States and Europe is the much greater variability of the weather here than there. From these facts it appears that when Jews or Gentiles from Eastern Europe come to New York, they suffer one kind of climatic change.

When South Italians come, they suffer another kind, but in both cases the change is pronounced. When Scotch or English come to New York, on the contrary, they certainly experience a climatic change, but it is by no means so pronounced as that to which the people from less stormy climates are subjected. Hence the failure of Boas to find any measurable changes in Scotch children is what we should expect. Turning now to the effects of climatic variations upon racial characteristics, we have seen that even the slightest change of temperature for one day to another has a truly extraordinary effect upon the death rate. Now at the known factor appears to be anything like so important. Moreover, the effect is plainly visible, not only in summer when people live with open windows and breathe the outside air, but also in winter on the winter when the effect is plainly visible, not only in summer, when people live with open windows and breathe the outside air, but also in winter when the winter on the air.

the houses are closed. Still more remarkable is the fact that the changes in the outside temperature produce the strongest kind of effect upon sick people, even though such individuals are protected from the outside air in winter, far more carefully than our persons in ordinary health. If changes in temperature, either through their direct effect or through some indirect means, which we do not yet understand, can swing the death rate back and forth so remarkably, it seems reasonable to assume that they have a pronounced effect upon creatures so high. sensitive as newborn infants. This effect would be accentuated by the fact that the immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe have had the habit of

swirdling their infants, but give this up when they come to America. Thus the children not only are born in a climate far more variable than that where their parents have come, but are more completely exposed to its variations. Even if they do not greatly feel the direct differences of temperature, they feel the varying conditions of humidity and perhaps of electricity which accompany each change of temperature. The conclusion that variations of temperature, either directly or indirectly, produce corresponding alterations in bodily form and presumably in mental activity, is fraught with the graver's consequences. It may seem that the climatic conditions during the first few months

of a child's life have so much to do with its ultimate development, both in mind and body. What conditions are best no one can say as yet, but on general principles it would seem as if exposure to fairly low temperatures was probably better than too high, since low temperatures apparently favorable to mental activity. The conclusion that variations of temperature cause alterations in body and mind may also mean that the present world migrations are giving rise to revolutionary racial ideas.

Immigrants who come from the old world to New York may experience one kind of change, those who go to Southern California or another, and those to Alabama are third. Moreover, people from one part of Europe are presumably influenced differently from those of another, which changes are good and which are bad, no one can tell. If our conclusions are correct, the whole human race is in a state of flux, and the future may see profound readjustments in harmony with the new environments.

Remember that two forces may be producing these changes. One is the sudden mutations which apparently arise when people migrate to new countries, or perhaps when children at the critical age are exposed to climatic extremes. The other is the selective effort of the entire environment, which, in the course of generations, will weed out some types and give others a free opportunity. The mutations, and still more the selection, may prove to be largely within our control.

Whether this is so or not, the world has before it no more pressing task than to discover how and why the environment influences hereditary. Before we leave this chapter, a word of warning is necessary. I'm afraid that the people who magnify environment at the expense of redatory will quote me in a sense that I have never meant. I believe that in the long-run environment, and by that I mean physical environment, is the greatest of all factors in evolution.

From this point of view, heredity is merely the sum of all past environments, and training depends internally upon the powers and faculties developed as a result of past heredity. and past environment. But notice that I have said all past environment. Part of that past environment is very far back. It includes the early geological times when animals first emerged from the water to the dry land.

The times when certain feeble animals acquired the power to warm their own bodies, the hundreds of thousands of years of the last glacial period when man's mind was evolving most rapidly, and that thousands of years since the present races took that place upon the stage of history. During these past ages, and even in the period since the present lines of racial cleavage appeared, man has passed through a great many changes as important as those to which he is now subjecting himself.

The effect of these has become part of his inheritance. It cannot be eradicated. Grant, if you will, that the artificial conditions to which man now subjects himself are causing his evolution to proceed much faster than ever before. yet the case of any two races is like that of two buds. Here is a bud of a pear and yonder, that of an apple. You may hasten or retard their development. You may mutilate them or protect them from wind, storm and insect. You may enrich the trees or tear off their branches.

You may do a thousand things which will cause the buds to result either in wee, naughty, shriveled rubens, or in great, luscious, juicy fruits. but after all is said and done, one is a pear and one is an apple. So it is with races. Environment has made them, but it cannot unmake them. For good or ill, each race has acquired certain characteristics. These may be modified, just as the pair and the apple may be modified by long and careful selection or by sudden accident, but they can never be wholly destroyed.

In this sense, those who talk about the immutability of races are correct. The whale immediately breathes air, and can never evolve into a fish again. Even when a creature is said to revert to an ancestral type, it really goes back no more than a step or two on a road where it has taken thousands of steps. The Chinese, the Negroes, the Anglo-Saxons, the Jews, and the Italians, cannot be made alike by the influence or physical environment, or by education and training. This we must recognize.

mankind is bound to change in the future, but it would be the height of folly for a nation on this account to incorporate into itself elements whose mental and moral aptitudes it does not now approve. End of Section 10. Section 11 of World Power and Evolution by Oldsworth Huntington. This is the Librivox According, or Librevox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit Librevox.org. Recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 11. The Example of Rome. In almost every phase of man's life today, we see that the air which he breathes and in which he moves is one of the chief factors. Whether we turn to civil service examinations, the use of liquor, business fluctuations, immigration or crops,

climatic conditions are in one way or another, a variable factor upon which variations in the others depend. In almost every phase of man's earlier evolution, the same appears to have been tried. no matter whether we turn to the emergence of life from the water or the change from the cold blood to the warm blood condition to the evolution of mind or to the mutations which gave rise new forms of life. Between the geological past and the present lies the historic past. Does it too show this same dependence upon climatic variations? For several reasons Rome will be the best text for this historical discussion. In the first place we have heard a thousand times that as a guide to modern conduct the example of Rome is perhaps the most significant in all history.

In the next place, in previous writings upon Rome, I have emphasized the economic effects of the climate changes which she has suffered. Here I wish also to emphasize a new point of view which comes to light with our study of health. Finally, we have already discussed medieval Italy, and as seen now in North Italy, at least there was apparently a remarkable response to the climatic crisis of the 14th century. What do we know as to the climate of Rome for the past 2,000 years or more. This is not the place to discuss the evidence of climatic changes. In the publications listed in the appendix, I have gone into the matter of great detail.

Here it is enough to say that after a decade of vigorous discussion, the geographers of America, and to a considerable degree those of other countries also, seem to have come to the conclusion that climatic pulsations of considerable amplitude have occurred during historic times. As Colton puts it, the summation of all these different lines of evidence, makes the theory of climatic pulsations become the doctrine of climatic pulsations. Moreover, Anteves has carried out a most careful study of all that has ever been written on

the annual rings of tree growths in their meaning as climatic indicators. He believes that the present author has underestimated the magnitude of the climatic pulsations indicated by the trees of California. The best available measure of the climate of the past is the growth of the big trees of California, as determined by the width of the annual rings of hundreds of stamps. The curve thus obtained is shown in figure 24. Where as high, the climate was relatively moist and rainy. The storms were abundant so that their stimulating qualities were at a maximum.

Where it is low, the reverse conditions prevailed. Since the southern half of California and the southern half of Italy lie in essentially the same kind of climate, the pulsations of the two places appear to be practically the same. this is so, abused from the rainfall of March to July, the critical months for agriculture and tree growth. Let us compare the rainfall at San Diego and San Francisco since 1851, with a growth of 112 sequoia trees in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and with the rainfall in Italy. We will arrange the years of each record in order according to the amount of rain in California, and they divide them into the four groups indicated below. For the trees, however, we will use first the

three-year period beginning with a certain condition of rainfall E and second the growth in the third year of each three-year period F this is because the huge secondon of trees do not feel the full effect of a given rainfall for two or three years Jerusalem is added for comparison groups of years one seven years with heaviest rainfall in California average 6.5 inches and over at San Francisco and San Diego combined two 18 years with heavy rainfall in California, 3.9 to 6.4 inches. 3. 17 years of light rainfall in California, 2.7 to 3.8 inches. 4. 18 years with least rainfall in California less than 2.7 inches.

A table displayed on the page comparing average rainfall with average growth of trees. Without exception, all the columns from B to F vary in harmony with A. At Rome, the agreement with California is less marked than at Naples, will that not In April's, when reckoned percentages, it is less noticeable than at Jerusalem. At Palomot in Sicily, however, the agreement is probably at least as marked as at Jerusalem, as appears from the following table for the 26 years for which records at Pelhammel are available at the time of writing. 1.10 years averaging 5.8 inches in California averaging 8.3 at Palomol.

2. 8 years averaging 3.6 inches in California, average 7.6 at Palomol. 3.8 years averaging 3.6 averaging 2.4 inches in California, average 6.2 at Palermo. From these facts it seems quite clear that the curve of tree growth in California can safely be used as an approximate measure of the storminess in the southern half of Italy. Turning now to figure 24, we see that from about 450 to 250 BC, California and presumably Italy was blessed with much more rainfall than at present. During these two centuries, the big trees grew perhaps 30% faster than doing the last hunt. years. The difference in rainfall, however, and still more, the variability of the temperature was

probably much greater. While we cannot speak positively, it seems probable that in those days the variability at Rome may be twice as great as at present, and the stimulating quality of the air corresponding important. Today, Rome lies near the border between the highly stimulating climate of northern Italy and the relatively innervating climate of the extreme south. From 45250 BC, the climate was probably decidedly more stimulating than any part of Italy today. In fact, it has opened a question whether there is today, in any part of the world, a climate better than that which Rome then enjoyed. July and August were doubtless too hot, for they now averaged 77 degrees and 76 degrees Fahrenheit respectively, and were then probably only 3 or 4 degrees cooler. Yet the summers were not so hot as those of Philadelphia and were probably blessed more frequently with cool waves.

The winters were much better than those of Philadelphia and they must have had greater variability, or the temperature from December to January not fall so low and probably averaged a little above 40 degrees Fahrenheit. In such a climate, provided that people had a good racial inheritance to begin with, we should expect a most healthy, vigorous and strong-willed population. Among them there would presumably prevail conditions such as those which accompany our periods of prosperity. If anything, however, we should expect greater powers of self-control, because the average health ought to have been better than with us. Not that the death rate was anywhere so low as with us, for there was no real medical science, but when people were well, they presumably had the super-abounding health, which makes them work with a will, and enables them to resist temptation. What do we actually find?

For fear that I may overstate the case, let me quote various passages from Ferrero's account of this period. The Romans there were so unlike the people of more innovating climates. This is my phrase, not Ferreiros, but it has not mentioned climate, that even the patrickans, the most wealthy part of the population, were peasants like their fellows, and not above handling the pick and the plough. Similar conditions so far as we can gather prevailed among the neighbouring. tribes. The case of Rome's success lay in the vigorous discipline of a constitution, which was strong enough to control that spirit of self-indulance, which is the most powerful solvent of

national life. It was this to maintain a pure and simple morality among a rich and powerful class, which would have been the first to succumb to the vanity and vice that too frequently attend on the pride of conquest. The Romans were a primitive people, without the defects peculiar to a primitive people. Their as was a stern and difficult discipline of the spirit. They accustomed their boys to reverence and purity, to labour and sobriety, to the careful observance of laws and customs of a narrow but tenacious patronageism. They taught the girls to be gentle, obedient and chaste, attentive only to housework and children. Everyone knows how democratic was the form of government among the early Romans. Officials were judged by their deeds and the slightest derilection from duty

was severely punished. No officials were paid, but it was deemed sufficient honor to be allowed to serve the state. Ancient Rome was in many ways remarkably like the early Puritan colonies in New England. Between 450 and 250 BC, the Romans extended their power almost to the peninsula of Italy. This brought them great wealth, but this increase of wealth did not a first tend to weaken the ancient traditions, nor was it immediately followed either by a change in manners or by a political revolution. The thrift and simplicity of the old, the increase of the old old times were still the proudest virtues of her noble family. If by the end of the third century BC, Roman had become paramount in Italy,

it was because the most admired virtues of every class of her estate were those that are distinctive of a well-disciplined rural community. The Roman was sober and self-restrained in all his habits and simple in all his ideas and customs. He had a deep and loving knowledge of the small world in which he lived and acquired an protrural intensity of purpose. He was honest, loyal, persevering, and displayed the curious absence of excitability so characteristic of a man who has no vices, who does not waste his strength on self-indulances, and has but a limited stock of knowledge. The basis of this

sturdy, simple life of the early Romans, was intensive agriculture, where you are told it in the days of the Roman Republic, seven juggera, or about four and a half acres of land, suffice the support an average family. Agriculture was so intensive that farms this small size, supplemented presumably by a pasture land, supported a contented and self-respecting population. As Sinkovic puts it,

the farming of the Romans on seven Zhugeira farms was like the farming of the Chinese and Japanese, very intensive, the small grain fields being planted in rows, hoed and weed and carefully manured with excrements and ashes and dung. The experience of China and Japan has shown that on very small land plots, such intensive agriculture can maintain itself indefinitely

without any recourse to scientific repletion of the soil by mineral fertilizers. So much for the period from 450 to 250 BC. That period ended in a great decline in rainfall and storminess, as appears in figure 24. Up to 250 BC, the climate still appears to have been highly favourable. Then by 220 or 210, it had apparently fallen to about the present level. For 100 years, nearly the same conditions prevailed, and not for a century and a half did the climate return to condition as favorable as in 250 BC. Even then, it, by no means, rivaled the two preceding centuries. Theoretically, such a change of climate should produce at least three kinds of results.

First, we should look for a decline in health, energy, and moral fibre. Second, economic difficulties would be almost certain to arise. Third, political conditions could scarcely fail to be affected. As a matter of fact, we find exactly what would be expected. In order to preserve the chronological old sequence, I shall not attempt to keep the three types of results separate. To quote Ferreira once more, towards the middle of the third century, that is the very time when the climate was changing most rapidly, through the increase of wealth and the

continuance of victory, the spirit of discipline and rural simplicity began to show symptoms of decline. Social simplicity begins to be impaired and domestic discipline through loosen its bonds. The family council was most rarely summoned. Sons, thanks the proceeds of campaigning, became more independent of their fathers, women less submissive to husbands or guardians, the nobility neglected its duties toward the middle class. The new spirit was fatal to the old friendly cooperation between class and class. A selfish and grasping nobility that looked to Carthage for its model inevitably provoked popular opposition. In these quotations, Ferreiro follows the usual method of attributing the decalicious.

of Rome to luxury. I do not question that this played an important part, but it is not also probable that decline in vigor due to the change of climate had much to do with the matter. It is significant that the change in the Roman spirit so closely analogues to the difference in spirit tode between a country like Scotland or Denmark, whether climate is highly stimulating, and the one like Spain or Mexico, which fails to give people the vitality so essential to high ideals. In political as in moral and social life, we find a change. change in Rome at the end of the 3rd century BC. In the Gallic War, 225 to 222, for the first but not the last time in Roman history, the people, not the nobles, were the aggressors. It was the

democracy that cast its eyes upon the Great Plains that stretches at the foot of the alpine barrier, a plain rich and fresh and fertile soil, covered with immense oak forests, huge tracks of marsh and lakeland dotted with Celtic villages watered by hurrying streams. No noble of great lineage, but the head of the popular party gave his name to the first great road, the Véflaminia that joined Rome to the Valley of the Po. The old aristocratic agricultural and military society was nearing the limit of its greatness. If it was to play a further part in history, it must be through a transformation of its character in institutions. The eagerness of the common people for a war against the Gauls in the plain of the Poe sounds as if poverty and distress might have been prevalent.

With a decline of rainfall such as is indicated in figure 24, how could it be otherwise? It is extremely difficult, however, to distinguish between the effects of different causes. In 218 BC, the Second Punic War introduced 17 years of bit of fighting. How far this war was due to the economic and political stress arising from the diminished rainfall in both Italy and in Carthage we cannot tell. It is equally difficult to determine whether it was the war or the climate which about 200 BC hasten the advent of the commercial era in society which had hithro been military and agricultural. Certain is that Italy now needed food and had to import it from abroad. The year 196 saw the first public distribution of grain in Rome. Such conditions were one great

reason for the development of commerce. It is also certain that in spite of this demand for of food, farming became less profitable, especially in southern Italy, where the effect of a climatic change would be greatest, land fell to a low value. Speculation became rife, and peasants fell into debt. The lands were bought by capitalists or large proprietors, and the cultivation of wheat gave place in large measure to the raising of sheep and goats. Many country people flocked to the cities, huge wooden tenements were erected, and bake shops were established to furnished bread to the many unmarried tradesmen and labourers who could not get it at home. So great was the influx of country people to the cities that in 187 and 177 BC, the Latin towns lodged

complaints with the Senate. At first, an apparent era of prosperity prevailed because the expansion of commerce and the great booty obtained by Rome from her conquests of Carthode, Spain, Macedonia, and other regions. The passion for enjoyment, so long restrained, burst out in all the primitive and animal indulgences, in gluttonous sensuality in the craving for violent excitement, and in the gross form of ostentation and display which marks the first blundering effects of the countryman grown rich. It is true that those plebeians who remained in the country still lived a sober and honourable family life after the manner of their fathers, respecting with equal simplicity the nobility and the law, by those who had settled at Rome in order to devote themselves

to commerce or shopkeeping or contracting, which was the most lucrative occupation. acquired all the vices that corrupt a rich commercial city. Both in city and country, the deadening spirit of caste exclusiveness, the regard for family of friends' independence, the cause of ambition or avarice superseded the old-fashioned prompting of duty while attempts to hasten the transformation of the old agricultural society became more pronounced and determined. In political life the tendencies were the same as in social life.

There grew up, even among the aristocracy, a generation of arrogant and ambitious politicians, who transformed the reasoned and moderate liberalism of Scipio and his followers into a revolutionary movement at Farines, with all the ancient principles of social discipline, and destined to set public and private life at the mercy of passion and self-seeking. Nowhere was a new school of policy seen

to less advantage than in the sphere of foreign policy, to despise all foreigners, to be always in the right to make the and justify the means. These were the principles of the new diplomacy, which, with a perfidy, there grew with each success, reduced the allied states of Rhodes, Pogamous and Egypt to a position of ignomious dependence, and alike in the independent republics of Greece and the great monarchies of Asia. Fremented discord and espionage, sedition and civil war. In its dealings with barbarians, it acknowledged no code of honor.

It might be attacked and exterminated without cause or excuse or declaration of war. This disgraceful state of affairs lasted through the second century. At the first symptoms of its decadence in the third century, the Roman public had burst out in a passion of pride and savatory which swept Carthage and Corinth clean from their foundations. Then followed other wars, which were less successful, as might be expected from so decadent people. The Spanish War from 153 to 133 BC was a costly, inglorious campaign

which lasted 20 years and almost reduced Rome to bankruptcy. When the Great Slave Revolt took place in Sicily from 139 to 132, the government had real difficulty in suppressing it. In this revolt, as in many other occurrences, we see signs that the trouble lay chiefly in the southern part of the country. The healthy glow of the Roman Empire came to an end during this sad century. Expansion, to be sure, still took place for other countries were suffering even more than Rome. But it was, at best, a sickly growth.

What caused his second century to be so disastrous? Is such disaster the inevitable accompaniment of growth? Must there be declined to balance progress? Perhaps, but the study of evolution, as it is seen in geology, emphatically insist that such a decline always has a physical cause. Was the decline due to the wealth and luxury that came from foreign conquest? Or was it due to the importation of slaves who caused deterioration in the racial stock of Rome? Doubtless both these causes are highly important.

The importance is much lessened, however, by the fact that a similar The UK took place in Greece, Egypt, Carthage, Syria and many other countries. So far as well as slavery were concerned, many of those countries were the opposite of Rome. They were plundered and plunderers. They lost slaves instead of gaining them. Yet the general course of events was the same, and so it would seem that we must look farther. Many historians have thought that agricultural decline was one of the chief elements in the fall of Rome. Such a decline unquestionably occurred.

Some authors ascribe it to competition with other countries such as Sicily and Spain. That seems unreasonable, however, for the Italian soil is as fruitful as that of other countries. Moreover, the farmer who lives nearest the market has a great advantage, especially where transportation is as primitive as it was in the Mediterranean region 2,000 years ago. Others, like Leibig, who was a student of history as well as of chemistry, hold that the depletion of the soil by constant cropping was the main factor. Recently, Sinkovic has ably revived this idea. It seems untenable, however, as I have shown elsewhere. This is chiefly because this theory clashes with the long survival of China and Japan. It also clashes with a sudden decline of Roman agriculture at the same time when agriculture collapsed in many neighboring countries.

It is scarcely possible that the soil of all these countries was in the same stage of exhaustion at one particular time. Moreover, the theory of chemical exhaustion of the soil does not explain the revival during the days of the Roman Empire. Finally, there is no need of such a theory for everything which may be attributed to the exhaustion of the soil may also be ascribed to a change of climate. There is good evidence of sudden changes of climate, but no evidence of sudden crisis in the composition of the soil. Moreover, climatic changes explain might to the loss of physical and moral strength among the Romans, a loss which is not easily explained in any other way. It must be remembered that the climatic change which overwhelm Rome at the end of the third century before Christ may have affected the character of the Roman people in the last three chief ways.

First, economic distress may have had a powerful moral and mental effect. A poverty-stricken man finds it much harder, to be honest, than does one who has all that he wants. Second, new diseases such as malaria may have been introduced, and the third, there may have been a great weakening of a very weakening of a very thing. health and thus a moral fiber, such as seems to take on a small scale to result some time from our climatic fluctuations from you to year. In considering both the economic and moral effects of climate change, it must be remembered that the change is what counts. A chronic invalid thinks nothing of taking to her bed. It is no great change. A man who has never been sick, on the other hand, has a perfect horror of been sick. He actually feels ashamed if he's obliged

to go to bed. So to a carpenter with 1,000. $5,500 a year feels prosperous, whereas a banker who has had $50,000 a year feels himself in time of poverty if his income is reduced to $5,000. The banker can in time accommodate himself to his diminished income, but meanwhile he may be sorely tempted to recoup his fortunes by dishonesty. Suppose that his income falls to $4,000, then $3,000, and finally only $2,000. He will still have more than the carpenter, but when he sees his boy at work instead of in college, his daughter learning's denography instead of dancing, and his wife riding in a street

car instead of an automobile. He feels defeated, bitter, disgraced. So in Italy, her climate and resources in the second century before Christ may have been as good as today, or even better. Yet the change and the lack of adjustment to it may have reduced most deplorable consequences. We have already spoken of the evidence of agricultural decline in Italy. Not only is her direct proof of this, but such events as the slave revolt in Sicily probably sprang from it. Even in good years during the second century, P.C. Rome was never entirely immune from partial famines. Little by little heard that the troubles of the farmers became the greatest political problem. Finally, in 133 BC, Tiberius Krakos tried to remedy them by a series of laws

for the redistribution of the land. He paid with his life for his attempts to change the old order. 10 years later, his younger and greater brother, Kios, took up the problem once more, but without permanent success. Yet at that very time, relief was in sight. Pliny states that in 121 BC, Rome became aware through the cheapness of wine that had changed taking place in the methods of agriculture. Vines and olives, so it appears from Cato and others, had been substituted for grain in many places at the beginning of the century.

That is, immediately after the climate became driest. Now nearly a century later, there is evidence of an agricultural change. Perhaps this was due to improved methods, but much more probably the new methods were due to the improvement in rainfall. Figure 24 shows that about 120 BC, a slight amelioration of the climate began to make itself felt. A decade later, in 11, Sputius Thurias, succeeded in the climate, succeeded in the climate, in enacting a land law which is supposed to have been much better than those proposed by Gracie. Thus he receives credit for the solution of the great problem which has been vexing Rome for a century. But does he deserve the credit? Agricultural disturbances certainly

declined and the price of land rose rapidly after the law was enacted. But look at figure 24 and see how the rainfall and hence the crops improved just this time. Nature often does the work which man thinks he has done. At the end of the second century before Christ, Rome was in the state of a sick man who was just beginning to be covalescent. As he grumbles, so he grumbled. There were interminable discussions on the disease from which Rome was suffering, says Ferreira.

One of these diseases was a deluge of crime. Murder, poisoning, theft, assassination, even family tragedies became alarmingly frequent. A large category of crimes committed by women, young persons went entirely unpunished, being still outside the cognizance of the law and no longer dealt with by the family. Even recognized offences when committed by Roman citizens often evaded a penalty. Another disease was anemia. No one tried the remedy of action. Men fitted away their energies in a morbid inertia, pouring vain in connemums upon a golden past, and childishly

appealing for the intervention of some heaven-sent deliverer. The Romans did not recognise that their grumblings, their crimes and their inertia were products of physiological disease anymore than we have recognised our crime and our times are similar products, yet it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that such was the case. One specific disease as to which we have detailed information is malaria. Anyone who has lived in a malarial country knows its ravages. The form which prevails in countries like Italy rarely kills people. Most persons who have it keep about their daily work except when actually having a chill.

But watch the work of such people. See how feebly they act. How irritable they are. How careless and how ready to leave a task half finished. Note too how soon such contact becomes habitual with people who suffer frequently from malaria. In our own day, malaria is still the great scourge of Rome. A few years ago it was worse, for the value of careful drainage and of the extinction of mosquitoes was not then understood. In the days of the Roman Empire, malaria was apparently a far greater

handicap, for then the use of quinine was not known. In the Roman 2nd century BC, more than half the people probably had the disease, or at least had had it during childhood, in so severe a form to cause a permanent enlargement at the spleen. At any rate, malaria, examinations carried on by Rome, show that today this is actually the case in similarly affected parts of Greece. So important is this matter that W.H.S. Jones has written a little book on malaria, a factor in the decline of Greece and Rome. It finds that previous to the second century before Christ, malaria was merely epidemic in Rome. It occurred sporadically as it occurs in some of our American cities, but its ravages were unimportant. Then in the

second century, as appears in the work of Latin medical writers and others, it seems to have become endemic. It was always present and every child was expected to have it just as children in America are expected to have the measles. Ross and Jones believe that such profilence of malaria would go far toward giving the Roman people the listless, complaining, unit character, and also the cruelty and licentiousness, which became so common in those times. We may perhaps question whether malaria alone would do this, yet having seen the potent effect, of climate upon business in America today, we may at least query whether the general ill health combined with the economic effects of poorer crops may not afford a sufficient explanation

of the lowest state of Rome in the second century BC. The most significant feature of the whole question is the coincidence of a great many symptoms, or the which are what we expected as results of deteriorating climate. Here seems to be the sequence of events. First, a climate with less rainfall and less variability than formally, but with more liability to the occasional severe showers, which are characteristic of regions of light rainfall. Next, poorer crops, the abandonment of many fields, the substitution of olives, vineyards, sheep and goats for grain and vegetables. This would lead to the pasturing of the sheep and the goats on thousands of hillsides. Then already sparse cover of grass would be still further diminished, as were the young

trees and bushes which were already suffering from lack of rain and which are greedily eaten, especially by goats. The animal's feet would break up the soil and their heavy but in frequent showers of spring and fall would carry it away. Thus not only would the slopes be denuded and many fields spoiled, but large deposits of silt would be laid down in the valleys and lowlands. Over these the streams would wander in many channels. Moreover, the streams would become intermittent because of the prolongation of the summer

dry season and undrained swamps and pools would abound. These would form ideal places for the mosquitoes that carry malaria and the dryness of the summer would ensure a continual supply of the insects. This malaria would abound and with it would come a large amount of apathy, indolence and vice. Presuming another line of thought we find that poorer crops would lead to depths, to ursary on the part of heartless creditors, and to complaints against taxation. This had also lead to the concentration of wealth and land in a few hands, to emphasis upon class distinction because of the growing gulf between rich and poor and to migration from country to city. That's what arise the ills which result from congestion, overcrowding and lack of family life.

Along still another line of thought we find that the change of climate which apparently took place in Rome at the end of the third century would diminish people's energy because the death rate and rendered people much more liable to the many little elements to which mankind as air. Such ill health would weaken a people's judgment and willpower. The Romans would tend to acquire more of the qualities that we associate with tropical countries, and to lose those that we associate with cool and variable countries such as Scotland, Norway and Canada. Finally, out of the land of thought leads us to conclude that the climatic conditions of the second century would make the anemic Malarial Romans less warlike, less honorable in their foreign

relations and less able to conquer, protect and wise it governed the peoples with whom they came in contact. Rome's later history was no less consistent with our climate theory than is the earlier. Ferreira's picture of the mixture of the old forces to decay and the new forces of revival about 100 BC is most suggestive. The great proletarian uprising, or social war, was approaching. The disorder of the past century was gathering itself together for a final attack on the established order, and the day of reckoning was felt to. at last to be at hand. Yet it would be a mistake to imagine that decade is, and ruin filled the whole

picture. Even amid the chaos of society and politics, they were promising symptoms of intellectual advance. Reformers like the Grecky, strong, if misguided spirits like Marius and Sulla, and great men like Julius Caesar were beginning to arise. Roman law was taking shape, handsome houses of imported marble were beginning to be erected in the metropolis. Sculptors and painters were developing their art, and the literature of the Augustine Age had its first forerunners. We have already seen signs of an agricultural revival. A little later, almost on the marrow of the sanguinary struggle of the social war, BC. 9289, there was a marked increase in the general luxury and comfort. By the time when Varro wrote his Deerre Rustica in 37 BC, some of his characters

could say that Italy was the best cultivated land in the world and had become an almost entirely one vast garden. Another states more modestly that Italy was better cultivated in his time than in preceding centuries. Many other indications point to a return on prosperity and also a vigor. The period from 75 p. C. onward was marked by a high degree of luxury and affluence. Though vice and sensuality about it, they did not play such a part as in earlier times. In their place came more desire for the grace of life, for art and literature, for serious studies and science and the work of Arro, which is mentioned, and the more poetic Georges of

Virgil. This was the time of Cicero and of the men who made the succeeding Augustine age the most famous epoch in Roman history. Turn again to figure 24 and see how the climate improved from the end of the second century BC to the middle of the first. Then it remained favourable for 70 years after the birth of Christ. This period corresponds closely with what is often called the greatest age of Rome. It was an age when the Roman arms were once more invincible, and the city by the Tybro was a mistress of the world. It was an age when the ideas of the earlier Roman Republic flowered and bore fruit

in the greatest system of Roman law, which still so largely guides modern jurisprudence. Yeah, this was not really Rome's greatest period. It was a vast improvement over the second century BC, but it lacked the idealism and the high moral purpose of the earlier simpler days. It was like the health which a man enjoys after a deadly illness, something to be devoutly thankful for, something that may enable him to achieve the master's stroke of his life, and yet not equal to the young figure with which he laid the foundations of his career. After the time of Augustus, the character of the Roman Empire did not change greatly at first, As the Encyclopedia Britannica puts it,

even Nero's wild excesses, 54 to 68 AD, scarcely affected the prosperity of the empire at large. The provinces were well governed, and the war with Parthia led to a compromise which secured peace for half a century. At the end of this time, that is, after 8080, there occurred to decline in rainfall,

but the conditions were by no means so bad as during the second century BC, as might be expected under the circumstances, The Emperor Nerva, 96 to 98 AD, and his successors began a series of attempts to take care of the food supply both of Italy and the Empire. These attempts included fast irrigation works in North Africa and Syria. In Italy, capital was advanced at moderate interest to landowners, and the profits were devoted to the maintenance and education of poor children. Time expired soldiers received grants of land, a proceeding which helped to give Italy a well-to-do class of cultivators. Although the system was not successful in lower Italy, where economic decline could not be arrested,

there can be no doubt that central and northern Italy, where the vine and olive were largely cultivated, and manufacturing industries sprang up, enjoyed a considerable measure of prosperity. Yet even under Trajan, Hadrian and the Antonines, 98 to 180, we notice a failure of strength in the empire as a whole. The ceaseless labors of Hadrian were directed mainly to the careful husbandy, of the strength has still remained, or to attempt at reviving it by sheer force of imperial authority. Among the symptoms of an insipid decline were the growing depopulation, especially of the central parts of the empire, the constant financial difficulties, the deterioration in the character of the local governments in the provincial communities,

and the increased reluctance exhibited by all classes to undertake the now onerous burden of municipal office. Here we see repeated the conditions of the second century BC, although not on so serious a scale as befits the somewhat more favorable climate. During the reign of the Udius Emperor Comodus, 180 to 193, famine and pestilts brought Rome to a low ebb. The reign of Suveris, 193 to 2.11, saw an improvement in the government, and in general prosperity, corresponding not only to the relatively strong character of the ruler, but to the comparatively favourable conditions of climate.

Soon after 20080, there began, in full force, a long period which Gibbon describes as decline and fall of the Roman Empire. War, plague, famine, misgovernment and barbarian invasions vied with vice, crime and incompetency to drag the world lower and lower. In Italy, as well as in other lands, the population poke rest apace. Infanticide became widespread. Great areas of formerly fertile land were left, desolate by propertyers who fled to avoid the exactness of the tax-gatherer.

How could they pay the old taxes when, decade after decades, saw their crops declining? The prosperity of the towns decreased with that of the country districts. All over the Roman Empire, there were repeated riots and insurrections among the poverty-stricken inhabitants. Political disorder due to starvation and misery extended from gourd on the other side to populous cities like Antioch on the other, and Italy had its share. Civil war and the rule of tyrants like Maxentius and Maximus added to the confusion. Men's energy and power of self-control, as well as their crops, were suffering at the behest of the inexorably changing climate. Worst of all, the barbarians were constantly sweeping down first on one part of the empire and then on another.

They, as well as the Romans, were in distress because of lack of rain and its poor crops and scanty pasture for their flocks and herds. Or if they themselves did not thus suffer, they were driven out of their homes by other tribes. tribes who years before had migrated because of drought. For generation after generations such unfortunate tribes moved restlessly this way in that, seeking homes and peaceful prosperity, but finding on the war and slaughter, drought and poverty. When the barbarians came down upon them from the more vigorous north, what could the innovated Romans do to repel them? Ill health, anemia, vice-misgovernment were scarcely the means of repelling fierce invaders.

So Rome fell and her fall was fly. followed by that period on a fatal climate, which is known as the Dark Ages. From first to last, the general outlines of the history of Rome conform with what would be expected on the supposition that climate is one of the chief determiners of the strength and habits of a nation. We have seen that this is so in our own country today, and that has been the case all through the course of geological evolution. Now we see that when Rome and southern Italy had a highly stimulating climate,

there rose a stern, yet admirable Roman Republic. There right was might, and conscience played as large a part as in almost any civilization that the world has ever known. Next came a sudden change of climate, and the Italy at the second century BC showed itself base, weak, and wicked, where its ancestors had been noble, strong and pure. Again the climate improved in the first century before Christ, and once more Rome rose, although not to a former level. A century of greatness and a century or two of slow decline agreed once more with the climatic conditions. Then once more a long and painful downward sweep of civilization occurred hand in hand with a prolonged

downward sweep of climate. The dark ages were a period of least a storminess, and presumably of least climatic stimulus in poorness than at a time for at least 3,000 years. Since those days there have been two great periods of recovery, both appear in general to have agreed with climatic pulsations. Today in spite of the vicissitudes of climate, Italy still holds her place among the great powers. Is this inconsistent with our theory? It would be, were it not that there are two Italy's. Italy of ancient times was the country from Rome southward. Again and again, we have seen that it was southern Italy whose disorders chiefly brought calamity. Today's Italy is the country from the Rome northward. Every student of Italian affairs knows that there is a marked difference

between north and south. Yet the south were by itself, it probably would have not a whit more influenced in Spain and perhaps less. Thus even at present Italy illustrates the fact that man's actions and capacities depend largely upon their health and energy, and thus upon the strength and stimulus which he derives from his climate. End of Section 11.

Section 12 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huttington. This is a Libby Vox according, all Libby Vox Accordings from the public domain. For more information or volunteer, please visit the provox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Chapter 12. The Problem of Turkey Turning from our survey of the past, let us apply to modern problems the lessons learned from a study of man's relation to his physical environment. In the Great War, we recognised Germany and Turkey as the two main types that we were opposing. Austria and Bulgaria are

intermediate between the others, and therefore did not claim our attention. Both Turkey and Germany furnished striking examples of the results which rise when physical evolution proceeds to its logical ends without being duly guided and molded by the spiritual factor of altruism. Germany illustrates what happens under the most feral physical environment. Turkey what happens in a much less favorable, but not the worst environment. Let us begin with Turkey. If I were to choose a text for this chapter, it would be from Elliot's Turkey in Europe, that best of books on the Turk, the crimes with which the Turks are frequently reprimed.

such as treachery, fractured side, and wholesale cruelty are characteristic not of them, but of the lands which they invaded. We all know those crimes. Our hearts have bled for the hundreds of thousands of massacredomanians and for the Syrians suffering torture and starvation. Our purses have been opened that we may bind up a few of the wounds that the Turk, backed by the German, has inflicted on his miserable Christian fellow subjects, or perhaps I should say slaves. With these dire facts in mind, it is hard to judge fairly, yet if we do not judge fairly, we run the risk of falling into the very errors for which we fought the old regime in Germany. So let us partially try to understand why treachery, fratricide and wholesale cruelty are a characteristic of the lands that the Turks invaded. Let us begin by telling a few stories of things that I have heard or seen in Turkey.

Before the war, I was talking with a certain Herr Winter, an engineer in charge of the extensive irrigation works which now bring water from Lake Bay-Sheer to the dry plans of Kornia in the centre of Asia Minor. As we taught, an assistant engineer entered the room and was introduced as a Greek. Soon came another, a Bulgarian, and then a third a Belgian. When a fourth was introduced, as an Italian, her winter laughed and said, This is not all, I could introduce you to an Armenian engineer and to those of still other races. This irrigation company is German, but I'm the only German here, and I'm in Austrian. Our labours are just as mixed.

Turks, Armenians, some Kurds, a few Greeks, and I don't know what else. Of course we don't understand each other. We don't try to. In saying that they do not understand one another, Her winter referred to language. His words have a deeper significance, for in Turkey one race rarely or never understands another's purposes. They do not wish to understand. Hence comes fast misery. It arises, I believe, from lack of mental activity.

Hence differences in religion or in speech, dress and manners form insurmountable obstacles. We shall come back to this, but let us first look further into Turkish character. From Lake Bay-Shahir, 30 miles long, a clear river flows southward to a smaller lake, Karavirin. At most times, this second sheet has no visible outlet for the water escapes underground through several exits whose location is evident from swirling eddies. During flood seasons however little water overflows and passes down a mountain valley to the Cornea Plain. For a thousand years the Turks and their predecessors have launched to prevent the loss of water through the underground outlets and to carry the whole supply to the thirsty plain.

They have dumped rocks into the swirls and at low water have tried to place covers or have beams and felt over the holes in the limestone where the water escapes. They have also tried to deepen the channel at an outlet. Their greatest effort, however, was a vain attempt to build a practically horizontal canal for a dozen miles around the smaller lake from inlet to outlet. The idea was excellent. The only trouble was that they went to work with the characteristic lack of foresight and apparently made little effort to secure a proper slope. Now with greater foresight, the Germans have given their canal the right slope and are watering

the plain. Of a piece with this bit of Turkish lack of foresight was a remark of a Turkish peasant. One of the engineers was telling him what a fine thing it was when his land was finally irrigated. When we turn the water into the canals, your crop of grain will average five times as large as now. At first a peasant did not seem impressed. Then the idea struck him, Allah be praised. Do you know what I'll do? I'll sell all but one fifth of my land and work only one fifth as much as now.

Equally stupid is the Turkish attitude towards massacres. Why does the Turk massacre of the Christian? Is it because he is by nature more cruel than other people? More likely it is sheer stupidity. The Turk reasons thus. Look at these Christians. They occupy good land. They prosper.

They lend money to Turks and make the good Muslim pay interest. They eat better than we do. Let us tax them and make them disgorge this wealth which by right belongs to the children of the prophet. So the screws are turned and the Christians are pinched. Naturally a Christian protest and squirm. Aha, says a Turk, you are against the government are you, we'll settle that. The Kurds shall kill and plunder you, and we shall share the plunder and enjoy your lands. Stupid Turk does not realize that he is killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

I happened to visit Adana just after the massacres of 1909, in which 15 or 20,000 Armenians were killed. That case illustrates the extraordinary stupidity and also the lack of reason self-control, which are among the most prominent Turkish characteristics. The first massacre was stirred up by reactionary Mullers, or Muslim priests, whose object was to discredit the constitutional party and restore the old regime. The Sudan's news of the atrocities reached Constantinople, the Young Turk Committee, which then seemed still to be actuated by high ideals, ordered troops from Salonika to proceed to Adana and restore order. The Salonika troops had been the chief agent enforcing Abdul Hamid to grant a constitution. They were supposed to be especially imbued with principles of fraternity and progress. What happened?

The troops reached Marissina and were entrained for a short ride to a dunner. As they disembarked for the train, long-wrote mullers with white or green turbans went among them. Thank God you have come. Ever since the massacre we have been in terror of our lives. These Christian dogs, may ella curse them, are sly and cunning. Look out or they will shoot you in the back. Thank God you are here and our wives and daughters, are last safe.

Thus they talked, lying, and the poor simple peasant soldiers believed in. In the middle of the afternoon a soldier was shot in the back. Later it was proved that the shot must have come from a Turkish house and moreover the Armenians had all been disarmed. But the plans and the mullahs worked well. To your arms, they cried, for they are still whispering lies among the soldiers.

Kill the Christians or they will kill you. In a moment the unstable, unthinking Turkish soldiers were out of hand. Their officers, so they claim, could not restrain them, and perhaps did not too. At any rate, the troops that had arrived to save in the morning went out to massacre in the afternoon, and that massacre was worse than its predecessor. The young Turk committee tried to save its face in the site of Europe. It executed about six Turks. I think that was the number for killing 15,000 or 20,000 Armenians,

and perhaps two Armenians in penance for the score or two of Muslims who have been killed by a few armed Christians. As I went into the interior from Madonna, the news was just spreading. We heard a city Turk relate it to some countrymen. What, said the countrymen? Hang a Turk for killing a Christian? Impossible. That was no pose on their part. It was actually beyond the limits of their thought that a Muslim should be punished for killing a Christian

in the same way that a Christian would be punished for killing a Muslim. As I went further into the interior, to the most Turkish portion of the country, I inquired repeatedly as to the effect of the new regime. What do you think of the new constitution? I would ask. Constitution, they would answer. What does that mean? Oh, I mean this new liberty, this new government. What difference does it make in your village? Ah yes, now we understand. This liberty? What do we know about it? They tell us we have it, and all will now be right. Perhaps it will. Got granted, but we see no difference.

Oh yes, the officials do not tell us. take quite so many bribes formerly, but that weren't last. They're afraid now, but you wait. They want money as much as ever. They seem to want more soldiers than ever, and they take our sons to die in Yemen. We don't mind being soldiers, but Yemen? Alabi, most of all, men die like flies there. Then they went on to talk about the new government.

Did we vote for a man to go to Parliament? We don't know what you mean. Oh, the big meeting in Istanbul. Did we send a man? Oh no, we heard that they sent a man. one from the city, but we had nothing to do with it. Why do you ask all these questions? How can we tell about liberty? We don't know what it means. We don't know anything. You are from the city. You have read books. You ought to tell us, not ask us to tell you.

What do we know except that we are poor and God is great? God grant that we get enough to pay the taxes live this dry year. Another example of the workings of the Turkish mind is seen in the relation of the government to the nomadic Kurds of the mountains and the wandering Arabs of the desert. Take the case of Dersium, a rugged tract of high mountains between the two branches of the upper Euphrates. The Kurdish inhabitants raised some grain, but depend in large measure on flocks. In 1907 and in 2008, the crops were bad and the sheep did not do so well as usual, for grass were scarce. The Kurds needed supplies from without. In the old days, they would merely have roped the neighboring villages. I myself have been in a village.

on the Deresim border when the Kurds drove off the flocks, killed a shepherd and had a fight with the villages. In 1901 however having recently been chastised by the government they purchased grain and made up a great caravan to bring it home. Instead of helping them in this peaceful and righteous course and thus paving the way for permanent good relations the stupid officials said, ah now is our chance we can strike a blow at the Kurds without injuring ourselves. So the caravan was seized. Naturally, the Kurds flare it up and began to rob and plunder at all sides.

The authorities sent a large body of troops, 20,000, it is said, who hung around the borders of the mountains, not daring to penetrate the fastness. Half a million dollars was spent. The only result was to embitter and impoverish the Kurds, and encouraged them to engage in further raids. A few years later, those same Kurds were turned loose to kill the Christians and blocked the page of history with the last, let us hope, of the fiendish massacres which have been one of the tenets.

chief entries on their debit side, not only of the Turks and Kurds, but of the land in which they dwell. We might go on to tell a hundred tales of this way in which Turks mistreat Arabs. Arabs plunders Syrians from whom they might otherwise buy bread, while Syrians use every petty contrivance to get the better of one another or of the government. But is there no race in the whole Turkish empire that lives up to some high standards? The Greeks of the coast and the Armenians of the interior succeed better than the Moser. but even they succeed very poorly according to the standards of the world's advanced nations. Their Christianity helps them.

Moreover, I am inclined to think that they inherited greater mental powers than to the Turks who come of a long line of nomadic ancestors. Even so, however, they suffer for a sort of inertia which prevents them from sticking long to a new attempt. Moreover, they are not notable for self-control. More than one thought of Armenian said to me, is useless for us to talk about self-government. No half-dozen of us can agree. We all want to run things the wrong way,

and no one is willing to submit to the majority. If we govern ourselves, we would not be much better off than under the Turks, except when the Turks start massacres. The Greeks are similar. Is there not a saying, five Greeks, five generals? Athens swarm with half-educated men, whose one thought in life is a talk and argue,

and ultimately do obtain of us. It is easier to describe the weakness of the Turkish Empire, than to agree upon their causes. These begin with misgovernment, lack of education, at the absence of high religious ideals. Important as these are, however, I pass them by.

Again, let me insist that I by no means underrate these things. Good government, sound education, high ideals are absolutely essential. The question is merely whether they are fruits or roots. Are the people of the Turkish Empire inert, weak-willed, self-indulgent, cruel, and stupid because of their government, education and religion? Or are they misgoverned, ignorant and superstitious because of their own lack of

energy and willpower? The case of the Turkish Empire today apparently resembles that of Rome in the second century except that it is far worse. The climatic conditions would seem to lie at the bottom of much of the trouble in Turkey produced profound economic results. For example, we have spoken of the Kurds of Dersim and of the government's interference with their attempts to procure of food in a dry year. The trouble in that instance was primarily lack of rain, and hence, poorer crops. Some of the coastal regions of Turkey get a fairly abundant rainfall and are correspondingly prosperous. Nowhere, however, except in a small area on the Black Sea coast, does much rainfall during the summer. In most parts of the country, no rain worth mentioning falls from the end of May

to the 1st of October. After May and October have little rain, while in bad use, April and November both be dry. In mountainous regions like Dursim, which are at best scarcely able to support their population, dry years bring great distress. In the case under discussion, the Turkish officials were extremely foolish. They said that the Kurds were a bad lot and needed a lesson. They failed to realize that the trouble with the Kurds is not innate depravity, but the hunger of the moment and the despair arising from century after century of unsuccessful struggles against nature. Half a million dollars spent in furnishing labour on public works, instead of paying for a military expedition, would have enabled those particular Kurds to buy five times the food they needed, and would have kept them perfectly quiet.

The fundamental mistake is in assuming that the Kurds are by nature robbers, a dangerous element to be sternly repressed. The remedy lies in so adjusting matters that the evils or their physical environment shall be neutralised. The Arabs are other members of the Turkish Empire, who were victims of similar. circumstances. Before the Great War, accustomed men's ears to tales of distress and cruelty, I could have harrowed your souls by telling how the people of the borders of the Arabian desert starved in the early 70s, a period of unusual drought, while the Arabs planted them unmercifully. The Arabs pressed in from the desert by thousands. They were hungry. Their sheep and camels were weak and thin, the young animals, including the babies, were dying for lack of milk, and food

of all kinds failed for the adults. Therefore the Arabs scourged the starving villages, stripping men and women of every rag, and leaving them weak and wounded to find the way home for miles in the blazing sun. We grow eloquent over the infernal wickedness of the Arabs and the criminal weakness of the Turkish government in permitting such devastation. But why should we blame the Turk and the Arab? They are acting absolutely in accordance with the stage of evolution which they have reached and with the physical environment in which they are placed. If we would do anything, we must show the Arab how to find food where there is no food, and the Turk had to be so wise and energetic that he will forestore the hunger and violence of the Arabs.

If the new government which must be established in Turkey can find a way of helping the Arabs in times of drought, it can preserve its borderlands from desolation. Raids will never cease so long as the Arabs are hungry and have the desert as a refuge. Here is another example of the economic handicaps which keep the people of the Turkish Empire so backward. Everyone familiar with Constantinople wanders at the desolate character of the surrounding country. On the Asiatic side, to be sure, villages are fairly numerous in spite of the relatively high mountains. On the European side, the beautiful plateau stretches northward to the Black Sea and westward 100 miles to Adrianople. He is well-nigh uninhabited.

He lies only a few hundred feet high, the soil is deep, the slopes are gentle and everything appears propitious for agriculture. Yet one may walk for miles and see nothing but flocks of sheep, and at long intervals a little village in a secluded valley. To test the common opinion, I made inquiries of three friends who have lived in Constantinople. All are far better informed than the average traveller, and one is among the chief authorities on the country. My inquires took the form of this question. Why is the country around Constantinople so sparsely settled?

The first reply was, lack of energy on the part of the Turks. They might have some fine gardens there. They have them in some places around the city, splendid ones, and the Turks were an energetic people they would turn the whole region into fine farms. The second reply emphasized another point. It's because the Turks don't know how to do things wisely. They keep sheep up there on the platoon. You can see them by day, close to the city, eating away and clearing up the grass so the ground

is smooth as a floor. The Turks ought to give that up and take to farming. The third answer carried the matter still farther. The trouble is that it is not safe outside the city. All this, of course, was before the war. It is dangerous to go out alone there on the hills. All over the platoon, the shepherds are unfriendly. Soldiers from the city go out there and insult or rob respectable citizens, so people do not live there. The government is to blame. All these answers are true, but not the whole truth. Lack of energy, lack of knowledge and lack of good government all seem to be largely the result of unfavorable physical environment acting even through economic conditions or

through health. Consider the economic side of the matter. The plateau west of the Bosphorus does not blossom with gardens partially because it is too dry. In the spring it is beautifully green and in exceptional years it remains verdant well toward autumn. Usually however, it dries up at the beginning of summer. Even early crops such as winter wheat and barely fail. The gardens to which two of my friends referred are artificially irrigated or else lie in valley bottoms and join natural, that is, underground irrigation. Under present conditions, water for irrigation cannot be brought to the plateau, which therefore is left to semi-nomadic shepherds. Across the bosphorus, where the mountains are higher, the rainfall is greater and

there is more a chance for irrigation, hence the more abundant villages. On the European side, the sparsity of population due to the dryness, allows the plateau to become the haunt of miscreants from the great city. If agriculture were profitable thousands of poor people would gladly take up farms, villages would spring up and at a few years comparative safety would prevail. That absence of cultivation is not due wholly to the lack of energy or to bad a government, appears from the fact that in the fall of 2009, when the deposition of Abdul-Hamed had assured safety in the minds of many, a considerable area of the platoon near the city was planted with grain.

The results are said to have been disappointing. The crop was by no means such as to attempt further expansion of agriculture, yet the season of 1909 to 1910 was not one of the worst, although not one of the best. The rainfall of Constantinople varies from 11 to 44 inches, sometimes it continues all summer but not often. Usually the effective rains end about the 1st of June and begin again in September. the rainfall almost ceases as early as April and is not to begin again until October. In such years, agriculture without irrigation is impossible.

Dr. Washburn, who for many years was president of Robert College on the Bosphorus, states that he had known the water supply of the college to fail completely because of the delay of the rains until the end of October. That year, as at other times, the little shiftics, or villages on the platoon, suffered severely because their wells dried up. They were forced to bring water from long distances, and their cattle suffered greatly. An occasional group of views of this kind is enough to keep all people except shepherds away from the plateau. The effect of such conditions upon the people of Turkey is illustrated by another incident.

As I drove one day over the plain of Akserun, northeast of Kornia, the parched brown land gradually became transformed into a carpet of short thick grass, beautifully green. Yet not a trace of village or field was visible, nothing but the tents or little mud huts of nomads. Mid the term, a Greek driver had not been sparing of opprobrius epiths when he spoke of the local inhabitants. Now we broke out into a nude and more vehement exclamations at the laziness, Ino's and incompetence of the poor swine who inhabited the plain. Look at this fine plain, he exclaimed. See how green it is! Look at that book. If only some Greeks were here, even some Mohajadur Turks. They would make a perfect garden of this. But these vile Turks, what do they know? There are animals without a speck of sense in their noddles. The Greek's

remarks throw an interesting sidelight on racial psychology. He had no theory as to the incompetence of the Turks as a race. Mohagia Turks are those who have come from Romania, Bulgaria, or other European regions because of the change from Muslim to Christian rule since 1876. Rationally, They are among the purest of the Turks, yet they are generally accounted among the most active and progressive farmers in the empire. The reason appears to be largely that they have lived for some generations in an environment more stimulating than that of most parts of Asiatic Turkey. Another interesting feature of the Greek's remarks is that his mental attitude illustrates

that of almost the whole world. He judged by outward appearances and utterly failed to hit the mark. How far he was from the truth appeared when the Kurdish chiefs with whom he spent the night showed me his garden. It's hard work, said the curd, to make a garden here. You see, what a good little brook we have. We ought to have good gardens. A few years ago I tried to make one over there where you see those dead saplings.

It was all right the first year, but the second season the ground became hard, and most things would not grow. Now I'm trying here where the soil is more sandy. This is the third year. Some plants do pretty well, but I don't know why so many trees don't I saw another new garden where likewise the trees had mostly died after a year's growth, while many of the vegetables seemed stunted. The reason was plain.

We were in the bed of an ancient salt lake. The soil was strongly impregnated with salt, and the brooks were slightly saline. Irrigation concentrated the salt, as it always does, and after a few years the ground was fit only for tough grasses. We saw traces of earlier gardens, all of which had met the same fate. Nature had been too much for the Kurds just as it had been for the Arabs in the desert and the Turks and others around Constantinople. Down in Birshiba, the most southerly town of Palestine, I saw a young Syrian official defeated by nature in the same way. He and two partners had attempted to raise grain on large scale.

Seeing many square miles of good land lying unused, they leased from the government a large tract at a rental of about $2,000 per year. In 1908 they planted several acres and reap an excellent crop. The next year they increased the area, hiring many labours and investing all the money that they could lay hands on. The spring of 1909 was unproperpidious with no rain from February till the end of April. At the end of April, when the fields should have been at their best, those at beer sheep looked almost as if they had never been planted. There was no crop to reap, the camels were turned into brows on the scanty stalks of grainless wheat and barley. Each man lost $1,500 or more, which is as much as $10,000 would be for an American official.

The untilled plateau of Constantinople, the standard Kurdish gardens, and the withered grain at Birshiba, represent the constant experience of the Turkish Empire. Men fail to improve their condition because natural obstacles are insurmountable. In view of the repeated failures of the past, the number of attempts at improvements is highly commendable. It shows in spite of much inertia and stupidity, many of the people of the Turkish Empire are blessed with quick active minds and a good deal of persistence. But no one can be blamed if nature refused to cooperate with him. In ancient days when the climate of the Turkish Empire was favourable, the ancestors as some of the president happens with the leaders of civilization. Today their descendants are crushed and discouraged by the insurmountable obstacles of nature.

No wonder their spirit is broken. their children ignorant, their religion corrupt, and their government diabolical. In the preceding paragraph I have twice used the word insurmountable with a definite purpose. Are the natural obstacles so insurmountable? It all depends on who is to surmount them. Have you ever seen a toddling infant stumble and fall over a threshold? Have you seen a sick man clutch at his heart and sway breathless at the top of three or four easy steps? Think what ill health does to business in New York.

Consider the effect of an adverse climate upon Rome. Remember that delicate climatic adjustments have been one of the chief strands in a long chord of evolution. Then ask what the climate of Turkey does to its inhabitants. It is not a disagreeable climate. In fact, it is in many ways delightful. Rarely have I find nature more charming than on a spring day when the purple Judah's trees along the Bosphorus, or probably cut for firewood by now.

were in full bloom, and the day was ushered in by a full chorus of knotting cales. Equally beautiful were some of the bracing autumn days when the first showers fell on the mountains of the interior, and our horses who struck fragrance from the dry leaves of the highly little sage bushes. Four years of residence in the interior, extensive ladder travels, and constant intercourse with relatives in Constantinople and with friends all over the country have given me abundant opportunities to sum up the net effects. long before I had any climatic theories, I remember how we used to talk the jaded feeling which seemed to pervade all the foreigners at the end of the long monotonous summers. Day after day was exactly the same. How we longed for the first break in the fall, the day when the clouds that had gradually been gathering should drop the first rain,

wash the dusty air and bring a change. I lived there just after leaving college. I never had a sick day and scarcely a cold during the vacations of Euphitz College. where I taught at Hartput, I travelled and lived out of doors most of the time, and at other times I always had plenty of exercise and spend much of my spare time on horseback or geologising. A healthier, center life would be hard to imagine, for we were so remote there was no chance for the social engagements

that interfere so much with healthful hours of sleep. Yet I know that I sometimes had a jaded feeling, which I almost never feel now although I am 16 years older, and work harder and sleep less. My experience is like that of many others. I recall a letter from a friend who had lived in Constantinople for some years. In other letters, he had spoken of the beauty of many a day on the banks of the famous Bosphorus. He had also mentioned the depressing effect of a month or so of steady cloud and gloom during the winter,

for the winters as well as the summers are relatively monitors. Now, he was writing from Copenhagen. This is essentially what he said. You don't know how good it is to get here. This air is like wine. I don't know when I have felt so energetic. I just want to skip about and do everything. That is it.

The Turkish climate may be most pleasant. It is never very bad. Yet it lacks stimulus. I've watched people who live there. I've seen how on their return to New England they are at first very sensitive to our extremes of eating cold, how they declaim against it and want to go back to Turkey. Later I've heard them speak of how much better they feel here

than others, and of how much more they can accomplish. Again, I've compared the American colleges in Turkey with similar institutions. At home, the faculties, I mean, not the students. It would be hard to find a finer set of men, physically, mentally, and morally. They go out to Turkey and beautied with the highest ideals and filled with the greatest zeal. What happens? At the end of 20 years, their ideals are still as high as ever, and their zeal as great. Yet they are not working as their college classmates at home,

are working. They have slacken their pace little by little. They do not attempt to keep so many irons hot. They are much more likely to stop for afternoon tea. They have more largely given up their ambition to do something original and are content with a faithful accomplishment of life's daily routine. This is no discredit to them. It's merely a wise and often unconscious adjustment to the new environment. I remember one who wished that he could work with the untiring energy displayed by his wife and by others who would just come from America. Two years later, he said, my wife unfortunately has learned that in this climate she cannot work so steadily as at home. I might go on to cite hundreds of such cases. One is only to study

the climate graphs of an earlier chapter and the facts as to health in New York to see that this response to the environment of Turkey is exactly what should be expected. If people with the finest inheritance, the best training in the highest high ideals, thus find themselves obliged to reduce her lives to a lower tempo in Turkey than in more favoured lands. What can we expect of the natives? Malaria is rife among them. Many are underfed, and those who have plenty of food often do not have the ambition and energy to learn proper ways of cooking it and of varying it. Any number of small ailments prevail constantly and do their share toward keeping a large part of the people in a state more or less anemia. Not that they are visually sick or that they would acknowledge that they

were less strong than the strongest, but have you noticed that just when people are most in danger of breaking down, they are loudest in their assertions that they are all right? Have you not also noticed that when you are under the weather, you are apt to neglect all sorts of little things? In Turkey, people are under the weather for generation after generation. This difficulty is aggravated by economic distress, is intensified by the mixture of many races who fail to understand each other partially because their lack of health and energy predispose them to be self-centered and conservative. So Turkey, like all other countries with which we have dealt, seems to have a civilization corresponding to her physical environment.

This does not mean that she is forever doomed to misgovernment, race hatred and massacre. It does mean, however, that there is little hope of any federal development from within. The stronger nations must give Turkey a good government. They must keep the peace between the different. races and, so far as may be, break down their prejudices. Another pressing need is through revision of the economic system. This matter is so important that even at the risk of digression, I shall discuss it somewhat fully.

One possible method of revision is through some sort of insurance against use of scarcity. In good years, the Turkish Empire is most fruitful. A joe service is needed to store up food so that the good use may feel the bad. The new government which will be inaugurated after the war might well compel the peasants to deposit a share of their grain in public warehouses after good harvests. Part of this might be in the nature of an advance of taxes, so that when the lean years come, the taxes could be remitted. The rest might well be in the nature of insurance.

Since the chances of crop failure are high, the premiums would have to be high. Suppose that the crop fails absolutely once in ten years. The average payment of three buttles per year for nine. years would perhaps be enough to cover operating expenses and allow the payment 25 bushes to the beneficiary when his crop failed. In actual practice allowance would of course be made for partial as well as complete failures. Consider how such a system would not only help the farmer but would steady the general market. Suppose there is a good year with exuberant crops. In such years prices ordinarily drop to a low level. Transportation facilities, especially in a backward country like Turkey, are overburdened.

and a good deal of grain is wasted. Even if it does not spoil, it is consumed more rapidly than is advisable, and some is fed needlessly to animals. Thus, at the end of an unusually favorable year, the farmer is no better off than at the end of a moderate year. Things would be quite different, however, if great insurance warehouses were located in every district. As soon as the crop was harvested and the fall work was over,

the farm would take much of his surplus to the warehouse. He would not need to pay any commission to a business. middleman, nor to pay expensive transportation charges. With his own beasts, he could easily travel 50 miles if necessary. So much grain would go to the warehouse, that the price would not fall so low as is now the case at such times. The next year the crop might be moderate. Little will be deposited in the warehouses and little taken away. There would come up poor year. Some people draw on the warehouse for their own consumption and others in order to sell. Prices would not go up much for the

presence of a large stock in the warehouses would hold them down. If a series of good years filled the warehouses to overflowing, it would be easy to sell to foreign markets. If a series of bad years depleted the stock, the government could buy from abroad. Such a plan of state insurance is not easy to inaugurate. It would require much time for its full development. It would necessarily have to go hand-in-hand with the building of roads and railroads. The people too would need to be educated up to it, yet there is nothing insuperably difficult about it. Once its benefits were understood, it would find rapid favour among a simple people like those of Turkey. The prime necessity would be confidence in the government.

If the people once became convinced that the administration was absolutely impartial and was in the interest of the general public and not to the rulers, success would be assured. England and many of her colonies had gained that kind of confidence. The Turks themselves could never gain it. Perhaps the day may come when they will change so much they can administer such an enterprise. but it is far distant. In all such backward countries as Turkey, it seems probable that the races from the more stimulating climates will have to be administrators for a definite period. The situation in respect to health is as hopeful as difficult as in respect to economics. Within a generation we've discovered the causes of malaria and the measures to prevent it.

We have also found that hitherto unrecognized disorders such as pelagra and the hookworm disease are responsible for no end of ignorance and inefficiency. All of these diseases seem to be closely dependent upon climate. Further investigation will doubtless disclose many other ailments, whose effects are so mild that we have not hitherto called them diseases. Yet their combined effects may account for a large part of the contrast in health and energy in different parts of the world. When they are eradicated,

we perhaps should not expect the people of unfaerable climates to work as steadily and energetically as those of the best parts of the world. Yet we may reasonably expect that much of the seeming stupidity and much of the indifference of vice and crime will disappear. The medical rebirth of countries, like Turkey, is as important as their political

and economic rebirth. The first great step toward medical rebirth is an exhaustive study of the course of the persistent inertia. It is good to think that science, through the study of biology and evolution, offers such hope for the regeneration of backward nations.

section 12 section 13 of world power and evolution by Ellsworth hunting this is a Libby Vox according or Libby Vox recordings from the public domain for more information or volunteer please visit Librovox.org recorded by Leon Harvey chapter 13 Germany and her neighbors the principles developed in this volume have a direct application to the Great War the pages of history show that in the long run the outcome of wars is in accord with the health and energy of the people. Of course there are many exceptions. The distance from home makes a great difference.

A strong people fighting at a long range may occasionally be unable to defeat a weaker nation, which has the advantage of being close to the battleground. So to a great leader may be of more avail than the activity of his opponents. Again, a people in distress through hunger may overwhelm others of great energy by the sheer impetuosity of their frenzied outbursts. Yet ultimately health and energy, and therefore climate appear to be the deciding factors. Rachel Character is unquestionably most important in this respect, as in others. But in spite of our prepossessions to the contrary, is becoming evident that much of what we call Rachel Character

is really the effect of physical environment acting upon generation after generation. Glanced at the course of history for a moment. Egypt spread her dominion, far to the south and into the confines of Arabia, at a time when her people appear to have been blessed with health and energy because of the viable climate which then prevailed. So too with Babylonia and Assyria. In the wars between these two, we cannot tell what part was played by differences in health, but both them conquered the surrounding countries at times when they were probably stimulated by embracing climate. In Palestine we see this same phenomenon. The country apparently rose to temporary greatness a little after 1,000 BC, not merely because David was a correct leader, but because his followers were energetic. A much clearer case is that of Greece.

She appears to have been victorious over the barbarians across the seas so long as her climate retained the extremely stimulating quality which are possessed until the time of Alexander. It must have been an immense advantage to the world. to Alexander that his army was invigorated by long years, yes, by generations of life in one of the best environments that the world has ever known. So too Rome overthrew Carthage, at a time when the climate of North Africa had become decidedly unfavorable, while that of Italy had deteriorated far less. Again in the Middle Ages, Italy was dominant, during periods when the climate, or perhaps a would-be better to say, the weather, was highly variable, while her power, was usurped by more northern nations when they were favored with the atmospheric conditions

that stimulate activity. In our own day, every explorer knows that in unfavorable environments, the endurance of men from better climates is much greater than that of the natives. In spite of these considerations, it's hard to persuade oneself that climate and health are really so important. Other factors, such as the character of the commanders, the strategic advantages of topography, and the availability of supplies certainly dominate the details of most combats. The part played by health and energy can be fairly estimated, only from a comprehensive view of decades or centuries. As I have shown in civilization and climate, wherever and whenever the climate is stimulating, civilization seems to rise to a high level. The character of the

civilization of course varies according to the race and training of the people. Yet no matter what the race, it seems under such circumstances, to a the power to originate new ideas, to stick to them until they are carried out, and to oppress its rule and its civilization upon the less favored people with whom it comes in contact. One may of course say that it is the higher civilization, the better training, the better government, or the stronger racial fiber which causes the more advanced race to conquer and dominate.

But that begs the question. It seems to be a rule in history that the following conditions generally go together, A stimulating climate, health, energy of body and mind, originality and persistence, high civilization, conquest and dominance of weaker races, and spread of the type of civilization which is grown up where the climate is stimulating. The civilization and energy of the people cannot be the causes of the climate. On the other hand, there is an abundant evidence that the climate has a great deal to do with the energy of a nation and with capacity for progress in conquest. Hence in the broad view much of what is ascribed to the race, training and civilisation of a nation is really due to health and climate. This brings us to the question of where Germany stands in reference to climate. We may say to once that the German climate is much superior to that of enemies who live east and south of her.

This is illustrated in figures 26 AB, two maps of energy and civilisation respectively, which I have described elsewhere. Even in a country like Germany, there is, as we have seen, much anemia and many other types of ill health, but not merely so much as in most other countries. When Austria first clashed with Serbia, the Serbians gave a good account of themselves even though they were fighting with the power far larger than their own. They had a fighting chance, as we may say, because they were contending with a country whose average energy is not much greater than their own. When Germany took charge of operations, the case was altered, and Serbia quickly succumbed. Of course, the size of Germany, her education, her science, her racial habit of obedience, all played a part in this. At present, however, we are merely showing that in her relation with the other belligerents,

Germany's energy has been in accord with what would be expected on the basis of her climate. Perhaps the Balkan states had had as stimulating a climate, as that of German, for a few hundred years. They might have had this strength in self-control to sink their racial differences and unite into a nation as competent as Germany. On the preceding page,

figure 26A, the distribution of climate is displayed, and figure 26B, the distribution of human energy on the basis of climate. Perhaps the reader will say, why choose Serbia? Why not talk about Belgium? Germany hit her as hard as he hit Serbia,

But the contrast between Belgium and Serbia is one of the best illustrations of the point we are making. Belgium suffered because she was small. How much has she cost Germany, however, compared with what Serbia has cost? At the end after four years of fighting, a Belgian army still held an important part of the battlefront. How Germany would have rejoiced to substitute Serbians for Belgians along that front. She would have broken through in a week behind the British and would have seized the Channel ports. Take another Germany's eastern antagonists, Romania. Here too we have a country whose climate, like that of Serbia, is not bad,

but is merely by no means so stimulating as that of Germany and Belgium. What happened? Romania went to the war for motives far lower than those which activated the Belgians. She looked out mainly for her own selfish interests, and she reaped a bitter harvest. Belgium reaped it even more bitter harvest, but she has a two-fold satisfaction. she knows that she fought only in self-defense. Shorts knows that having begun to fight, she never lost her grip, while Romedia, being once defeated,

seems to be a fact of any importance. When we come to Russia, we find a country larger than Germany, and from that point of view, able to fight on equal terms. In other respects, however, the fight was very unequal. Russia is a northern country, and is none of the disadvantages of the Torrid zone. Yet her climate is a terrible handicap. I know that, in this chapter, I shall seem to some readers to go beyond the limit of reason in the importance which I ascribe to climate,

but remember what it does in New York. Remember that a change of only one degree in the mean temperature has an easily measurable effect upon the death rate, and hence upon human energy. Remember that the brain is the most sensitive of man's organs, and that climatic changes were apparently the greatest external factor in controlling its development. Remember, too, that among all the faculties of the human mind, none is so sensitive to external circumstances, as is the power of invention. Do we not all know that an interruption bothers us far more when we are trying to solve some difficult problem

than when we are merely doing a bit of routine figuring? It is not notorious at people who are gifted with the creative impulse, whether in art, music, literature or science, are more sensitive than any others to conditions of health? In rare cases like Darwin and Stevenson in his later life, A man succeeds in doing a great work in spite of ill health. Ask an ordinary scientist, however, as the effect of a headache when he is trying to write the report of some complex investigation. Many a time I've heard my colleagues say that on days when they feel right, they can do five times as much as when something is wrong with their health. Often such a man throws away what he has written at such a time and rewrites when he feels more fit.

This may seem like a decoration from Russia, but it is not. Having lived for over a year among the Russians and having learned to admire both the common people and their great men, I would be the last to underrate them. Yet many of my Russian friends have made a remark which my own observation fully bears out. We Russians are not like you Anglo-Saxons, we are more sensitive to external impressions. We lack your power of concentration. That is our greatest trouble. We have become filled with high ideals or with great plans for remodeling the world.

We begin on them with great enthusiasm, but we do not have not. stick to them. Fitzger depression come over us and we are close to a great achievement, we often give up in despair. Presumably, this is in part at least, a slavic characteristic. Yet after observing the effect of the weather in New York and in many other regions, I cannot but think that climate and health have much to do with it. The Russian climate as we have seen varies extremely from season to season.

The long cold winters are deadening, the air becomes cold and stays cold. are indeed changes of temperature, but the variety of weather during the winter is not nearly so great as in a place like New York. Thus, health is impaired more than in the northeastern United States. The spring and fall, however, are admirable. In summer, on the other hand, of the large parts of the country are so far north that they do not become very hot. The monotony of the climate or some other cause raises the death rate enormously. Whatever may be the reason, the death rate of Russia in July, according to official figures for a long series of years is 45% greater than in May and 55% greater than in October.

Such extreme and sudden fluctuations in health must have a corresponding mental effect. Moreover, where the health of the community varies so greatly from season to season, it also varies much from year to year. Thus, in the Russian people, we should look for fluctuations between optimism and pessimism, similar to those which our own businessmen experience, but on a much greater scale. That is what we actually actually. find. Will you see it in daily intercourse with the Russians? It pervades our literature. A good example is Tolstoy's novel Resurrection. During his youth the hero is filled of high ambitions, then he succumbs to sensualism, but is overwhelmed with remorse.

Finally he decides on the course of expiation but carries it out an inconclusive half-hearted matter that is most irritating. Finally when the hero leaves the girl whom he has wronged and lets her continue on her way to Serbia, the reader closes the book with the same pitiful and disappointed feeling that we all have when we think of the events in Russia during the second half of the Great War. The Russian Revolution after the Japanese War was quite in accord with Russian character, a revolution that promised much but accomplished little. After the Great War furnishes an example of the same proneness to begin, a task with great enthusiasm and fail when it is half done. When such a nation is pitted against a nation like the

Germans, with steady purposes to which they hang like death, the result is certain. Steady energy always vanquishes a fitful energy which may fail at the critical moment. There is still another way in which Russia is at a terrible disadvantage compared with Germany. Over 85% of the Russians are either peasants or depend on agriculture in some other way. For six months, the rigorous winter shuts them up in their houses. There was almost nothing to do except cut and haul the necessary firewood and take care of the animals. So the peasants sit in the close stuffy houses day after day and do nothing except talk and dream. Such a life vauderness leads many to sensuality, which permanently weakens their powers of real achievement.

With many others there is a strong tendency to make great plans during their long, idle winter, but when the spring comes, the routine farmwork takes every hour of the day, and people who have been idle or winter are not in fit condition to carry out new plans or achieve great improvements. Thus the severe cold of the winter tends to foster in the Russians a tendency towards speculative idealism which bears fruit in words but not in deeds. On the Italian battlefront the Germans found a more persistent foe than the Russians. In figure 26 we see that about half of Italy has a climate of the kind marked very high, while only a small fraction of Russia has such a climate.

This does not mean, however, that the climate of all North Italy is as good as that of Germany. Nevertheless, the frequency of storms and the absence of depressingly low temperatures in winter give northern Italy to about the latitude of Florence, one of the world's admirable climates in spite of the hot summers. Even there, however, the difference between the death rate of the worst and the best months is two or three times as great as in Germany. When Austria and Italy were pitted against one another, they stand quite equally matched, which is about what would be expected on the basis of energy.

When Germany threw herself against the Italians in the fall of the war of the war, 1917, the balance was at once changed. Whatever may be the reason, German energy is more than a match for that of Italy. In the Great War, two nations, France and England fought Germany to a Stancil. Another of the United States falls into the same class. When the war ended, France, England and the United States and Germany all emerged with unimpaired prestige so far as prestige depends upon the energy and determination with which they had fought. Here again I'll only point out that this is what would expected on the basis of climate and energy. Let us compare the climates of the chief cities of these four countries.

Perhaps it is worthwhile to remind the reader that these are also the four chief cities of the whole world. Here are the figures as to the mean temperature from month to month. The smaller figures preceded by plus or minus signs indicate the amounts by which the various months differ from the same month in London. The table is displayed on the page, monthly mean temperature. Among these four is difficult to decide which is best. As may be seen from the lowest line, they present a series in which the contrast between summer and winter becomes progressively greater.

So far as main temperature is concerned, London appears to be the most favoured, although its difference from Paris is negligible. In both places the January average is close to the temperature which is best for mental activity, 40 degrees, but the July average almost coincides with the optimum for physical activity, 64 degrees. 64 degrees. The fact that London is dampened in Paris probably makes its climate a little the better of the two, for we have seen that, in spite of our prepossessions, a damp climate is better than a dry one, provided it is not too hot. Berlin is too cold in winter, but of just the right temperature in summer.

New York is not only too cold in winter, but too hot in summer. So far as mean temperature and humidity are concerned, it seems probable that the cities are arranged in order of excellence. London made first and New York last. It is not enough to look only at temperature and humidity. Changes of temperature are equally important. Viewed from this standpoint, the order of the four cities is reversed. New York easily stands in the head, while London is least favoured.

As yet, our investigations have not gone far enough to enable us to balance the advantages of the one against the other. If I were obliged to express an opinion in the light of present knowledge, I should have to confess that Berlin may have a very slight advantage over any of the others. At any rate, there is no denying the fact that Germany is today blessed with as fine a climate as any in the world. How far this accounts for her tireless energy and her ceaseless preparations, I dare not attempt to say. That it is an important factor seems almost certain. Before we discuss this matter further, let us see how many people actually live in highly stimulating climates. Here again we must proceed with great caution, for we are only on the threshold of this subject.

The figures that I shall give are based on a careful weighing of the facts set forth this book, and in civilisation and climate. They must, however, be regarded as merely preliminary, and is in the first nature of suggestive estimates. Here they are. A table is displayed on the page, population in regions where the climate is highly stimulating. Possibly something should be added to, Austria. But if that is done, allowance must be made for Russia on the other side. Since Belgium was put out of the running at the beginning of the war because of a small size, and since

the United States did not really get into the war until the summer of 1918, the war for four years was ravaged between about 90 or 100 million of the world's most energetic people on each side. A part of the Japanese should perhaps be inclined among the people living with the climate is exceptionally stimulating, but since they took little part in the world, but since they took little part in the war we may omit them. From what has been said thus far, it appears that the advantages of a highly energizing climate were almost equally divided during the first four years of the war. Notice, however, that in the table Germany is credited with over 70 million people,

while England has only 45 million and even the United States only 50 million who live in the best kind of climate. Thus while Russia and the United States and also India and China have more people than Germany, no other nation in the world has so many people who live under a highly stimulating climate. This I believe is one of the most important features of the whole situation. Not only are the Germans comparatively homogeneous in race. Not only are they united under a single government, but they are all under the stimulus of one of the best climates in the world.

To that in part at least, they owe their constant energy. Though the ancient Romans in a similarly stimulating climate, they are capable of the stern self-discipline which held them together in spite of hunger and sorrow. It is as foolish for us to make light of the German virtues as would be to condone their sins. In enmity born of war, we exalted over the breaking down of moral standards, the increase of autocracy, and then the split of revolution. Yet if we are open-minded, we cannot deny that the Germans, to a remarkable degree, show their devotion to the state. We've finally hoped for a revolution to help fight our battles We have taken pleasure into writing the peasants and professors alike as a stupid dupes of autocracy

This is a mistake on our part They were doubtless the dupes of their own false system of education But they were thoroughly convinced that their system was right The man's first duty is to yield his own will and his own pleasure to the upper building of this state This conception may be right or wrong But at any rate it is terribly false formidable to its enemies. It is a sign of great strength of will and of a power to endure which is the greatest of assets in a struggle that tests the nation's power to the limits. The German devotion to the national cause is like that which made early Rome so formidable.

In a mistaken way, it is a spirit that animated our revolutionary ancestors in early New England. Although they were ardent individualists, they were ready to sacrifice everything to what they believed to be the public welfare. and they had the will to stick to that determination. I am not praising the Germans. I am merely trying to point out what seems to be one of the greatest causes of their power. So far as they direct their course toward right ends, the energy and alertness which seem to result from their environment are highly admirable. So far as they pursue wrong ends,

those same qualities are the world's greatest danger. Because the Germans are so strong, live in such a wonderfully frederable environment, the Allies should strive the more mightily to help Germany to set her ouse in order. For the moment, this is the chief reason to be learned from a study of climate and health. The world's most favoured regions have been divided into two great camps. Both owe much of their strength to the favourable environment. One camp has stood for a policy which is generally great in its emphasis

on the duty of the individual to sacrifice himself for the good of the state, but which is despicable in other ways. It stifles the individuality which is the root of all progress. It inculcates scorn of war that is not its own. It leads to brutal cruelty and to a system of public and private morals that would make the world unlivable. The other camp likewise has its faults, but it tries to give all men a chance. It does not hold that its own system is infallible, but it does believe that the world will make progress only if we stimulate all men to their best and encourage each individual. individual in each race to make its contribution to the general welfare along its own chosen lines.

This completes how survey of the cause followed thus far by the ship of human progress. We started when man's ancestors were still spineless creatures living in the vast ocean. We have seen that again and again great crises have depended largely upon climatic conditions. When the primitive animals came out upon the land, when they began to crawl in the mud and thus develop the limbs which finally became hands, and when they at last involved the power of warming their own bodies, the circumstances which brought about the change appear each time to have been largely climatic. Other factors must unquestionably have played most vital parts, but none stands out more clearly than climate. In later days, man's brain, the most sensitive

of all his organs made by far its most rapid evolution under the stress of great climatic extremes. The greater the climatic changes, the more rapidly new types were evolved, not only among plants and animals, but in the human species. Whatever may be the inner causes of the rise and extinction of the new forms of life, there can be no question that these have occurred most rapidly at times when the climate of the world swung rapidly for one extreme to another. Side by side with this great fact stands another. Today's man body is more sensitive to the temperature and humidity of the air than to any other feature of his environment. This is proved by our daily experience of discomfort because the air is too hot, too cold, too dry, too stuffy,

or too actively in motion. It is also proved by the measured work of thousands of factory operatives and students, who achieve most under certain narrowly defined limits of temperature and humidity. Further and still more conclusive proof is found in the fact that deaths, which all physicians recognise as by far the most sensitive index to the general health of community, at least frequent when the conditions of the air approached closely to the optimum of physical activity. Moreover, not man alone, but every planet animal that has been carefully tested basis the same adaptation to certain distinct conditions of climate.

Such an adaption among all living creatures appears to be the inevitable result of millions upon millions of years of evolution. Unless we assume that man's evolution has been something entirely apart from that of the rest of the world, we cannot for a moment expect that he will be free from this intimate dependence upon the air. He may mitigate the effect of conditions which depart from the Ottoman, but he cannot alter the fact that he is part and parcelable world of life, in which the condition of the air has been the determining factor in the rise and extinction of type after type. Another step in our study of the relation between man and the air around him is taken when we study history.

We have seen that in Rome, the ups and downs of the ancient republic and the latter empire followed the vicissitudes of climate with extraordinary fidelity. Here indeed we recognize that we are studying a problem so new that there is much more opportunity for a difference of opinion than in the general conclusions that climatic changes have been a main factor in evolution and that all forms of life are now extremely sensitive to the condition of the era around him. One of the most interesting phases of the historical studies for the next generation is bound to be the conflict of opinion as the effect of climatic changes upon history. Yet already the evidence seems strong enough at least to warrant the careful

attention of secrets after truth. In this final summary we are arranging our main points in the approximate order of their probability. Many people who will accept the idea that the history of Greece, Rome and Babylonia was quickly influenced by climatic conditions will scornfully reject the idea that the trend of modern business is subject to any such control. Their attitude is not surprising. The idea that climate, through its effect upon health, exerts a controlling effect upon mental activity, upon drunkenness, upon the urban flow of business and upon the influx of immigrants will not to be accepted likely. On the contrary, it would be weighed and tested from every possible angle.

It could be held as proved until it has been demonstrated in scores of different ways. Yet here, too, the evidence is already strong enough to cause us to ponder most thoughtfully. We do not do otherwise, for if this conclusion is true, it will alter present methods in a hundred different ways. Somehow we must explain the fact that statistics as to the airpin flow of some of the greatest activities in the United States and Germany, appeared to show an intimate relation to the urban flow of health and of weather. To some minds, it will seem difficult to believe that the strength of Germany, on the one hand, and of her enemies on the other, is due a considerable measure to the stimulus of their climates. Only enough, people are willing to believe that tropical countries are backward because of their bad climate,

or those same people borgue at the idea that the strength that their own countries owes much to the good health and constant vigor which arise from good climates. They seem to think that such a belief overlooks the importance of racial character and of education and religion. There is by no means the case. Racial characteristics, on the one hand, and the many influences which we may call training on the other, determine the direction in which a country's energies shall be expended. Climette, on the contrary, acting not only on the present generation, but on an infant series of past generations determines how great those energies shall be.

Even here, its effects are modified by food, by training, by ideals, and in many other ways. Nevertheless, a broad survey of civilization, both today and in the past, makes it appear that along this line also the effect of climate deserves most careful study. Could Germany, for example, have to find the world for years or even months if she had been located in equatorial Africa? That is the kind of question that we must answer once and for all. If we decide that the progress of a nation depends largely upon the health and energy of its individuals and thus upon climate, the responsibility of the more favoured races is correspondingly increased. If we admit that Germany shares this tremendous energy which arises from a favourable physical environment,

it becomes more than ever important that by fair trepint we should win her to a spirit of vitalism, a spirit which many of her sons showed most clearly in the generations before the war. Bad training indeed later astray, but the power of Germany for good is as great today as ever. On other nations quite as much as upon Germany lies their responsibility for saying that every strong nation uses its strength for the general good not for its own selfish advancement. Finally, we come to the part of this book, which is sure to be most fiercely assailed. Today the swing of evolutionary thought is all toward the side of heredity. Therefore, scores of biologists will feel that in placing so much emphasis upon the effective environment, I've committed a cardinal sin. They will say with justice that there is far more proof of the importance of heredity in causing stability from generation to generation than of the importance of environment in causing mutations.

Undoubtedly, the evidence as to the causing mutations is still slight. That is inevitable when a subject first comes into the realm of scientific investigation. On the basis of such scattered facts as are yet available, we have framed the hypothesis that the commonest cause of mutations and thus the origin of species is germany. changes due to the action of extremes of heat and cold upon the organism in its early stages of growth. If such an hypothesis accepted it will doubtless demand a readjustment of many old ideas but there is nothing about it at all inconsistent with the strongest possible belief in the importance of heredity. The scales have swung too far in one direction because one side has been heavily weighted with some of the

most important and interesting facts that have ever been discovered. Now we must find facts of other kinds and throw them into the scales. It happens that the facts have forth in this book fall into the side of the scale marked environment. By and by we shall have more facts. As we dig them out, we must carefully inspect them to see whether they belong in one scale or the other. It is easy to mistake the scale in which a given fact should fall, and sometimes we may have done so in this book. Yet even so, there remain many facts which indicate that extremes of heat and cold, dryness and moisture are somehow associated with pronounced changes in the form and function of the organs of the body. That single fact,

if it be a fact, is more important than all else that we have here discussed. Part of its importance lies in that it opens up the possibility that someday mankind may learn not only how to select the best variations in a given plant or animal, but how to cause a great number of widely diverse mutations from among which he may select. In all this the human race is merely one among the species of animals. For what we know, his migrations and the many new and artificial conditions to which he subjects himself may be altering some of his most deep-seated qualities. We spend millions in the attempt to improve plants and animals.

It is not time that we learned how the highest of all animals is being changed and how this future evolution may be directed along the right path. End of section 13. Section 14 of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. This is the Libby Vox According, or Libby Vox Accordings in the public domain. For more information or volunteer, please visit LibriVox.org, recorded by Leon Harvey. Appendix. Appendix A. Elimination of the secular trend

Throughout this book, except where otherwise noted, the secular trend has been eliminated from all diagrams showing the course of a for a series of years. The secular trend is the progressive change arising from causes which act with comparative regularity throughout long periods. Thus the secular trend of the production of pig iron in the United States is upward. For under normal conditions, the production increases from year to year. On the other hand, the trend of the death rate is downward because of the improvement in medical science. Nevertheless, the total number of deaths in a given city may trend upward because of growth in population. The purpose of eliminating the secular trend is to bring into true proportions the irregular or

cyclical variations, which tend first one way and then the other without an apparent system. The method of elimination is illustrated in a figure 27. The lower of the three irregular lines represents the variations in bank clearings at New York for a period of over 40 years. Note the maxima in 1873 and 1906, for example. Our problem is to determine their relative importance. To do this we divide our 40 years into periods of 5 or 10 years or other convenient length, and plot the average clearings for each period.

With the points thus obtained as guides, we draw a smooth curve such as the solid line in the lower part of Ficka 27. This represents normal course of banked clearings or the course that clearings would have followed if there had been no disturbing influences such as bad crops, panics and the like. The steadily increasing upward tenancy of the secular trend is obvious. Having obtained the normal for each year, it is easy to eliminate the secular trend by calling each year's normal 100, and finding the percentage by which the actual clearings depart from it. Thus the bank clearings in 1873 were approximately 30% above normal,

or those in 1906 were about 35% above the normal for that year. In other words, when the secular trend is eliminated, we find that a departure about $8 million from the normal in 1873 was only a little less important than one of 27 million in 1906. When the percentages for each year have thus been computed, a curve can be drawn showing the cyclical variations without the secular trend. This is what has been done in this book. A diagram is displayed on the previous page, figure 27. Elimination of the secular trend. The normal curves showing the secular trend may be convex, straight or concave. In figure 27, the line for bank clearings is desirally concave and that the peak iron is nearly

straight, but both rise rapidly on the right, since business of the United States increases at a constantly accelerating pace. The curve for prices, on the other hand, is quite different from the others. On the left, it descends rapidly. For from 1870 to 1890, prices fell because of improvements in manufacturing prices. processes, transportation facilities, etc. In the 90s, however, the excessive production of gold began to lead to inflation of prices, so that the latter part of the curve rises. In plotting the normal curves, mathematical accuracy is not possible. Sudden changes in the direction of the smooth

lines must be avoided, and too much weight must not be given to temporary fluctuations. Thus personal judgment must play some part. When the work is checked by averages, however, this reduced to small proportions. Moreover, a considerable deviation from the absolute position of the true normal does not affect our conclusions. Suppose that the position of the curve is too low by 5%, which would be a large error. Three successive years, which actually departed from the normal by 30%, 10%, and 10% would appear to depart by 36.8%, 15.8% and 5.3%. The difference between the two extremes, however, that is, the intensity of this particular fluctuation will be nearly the same, namely 40% in the first case and 42.1% of the second. On the other hand, suppose that the

secular trend were not eliminated, and that two exactly similar series of years occurred 30 years apart so that the normal in the second case was twice as great as in the first. The difference between the extremes would appear to be 100% greater in one case than in the other. Since the changes in the normal during the period from 1870 to 90% amount to 50%, even in the case of general prices, and to several hundred percent in most cases, is evident that the elimination of the secular trend adds greatly to the accuracy of our judgment as the importance and character of successive cyclical fluctuations, and that is its sole purpose. Appendix B.

Construction of climographs In the preparation of the climber graphs which illustrate this book, the first step was to select a series of cities or districts so located as to cover all parts of the area to be investigated. The number of such cities was 14 in France, 14 in Italy, 52 in the United States, and also Tokyo in Japan. Then the deaths at each place during the years, 1899 to 1915, or for as much of that period as possible, were tabulated by months for each year. Allowances made for the fact that some months are shorter than others. This is done by multiplying the figures for short months by 31 over 28, 31 over 29 or 31 over 30 as a case might be.

The figures were obtained representing the actual monthly degree of mortality. The second step was to find how much this actual mortality differs from the normal mortality for the year in question. The normal may increase because of the natural growth in population. It may also decrease because of improved medical and sanitary efficiency. The method of obtaining the normal is illustrated in fact that the normal is illustrated in figures 28 and 29, which Chicago serves as an example. In both figures, the broken dotted line shows the actual number of deaths from year to year or from month to month. The straight dotted lines show the normal number, that is, the number that would have occurred had there been no

irregularities due to epidemics, weather and so forth. In most of the cases employed in the preparation of climate graphs in this book, the normal is represented by a straight line. The exact direction of the line is found by dividing the years into the earlier and that a half and getting the average for each half. The two averages are plotted in their proper places and then connected by a straight line. In some cases, however, the normal forms a curve instead of a straight line, and must be plotted with more reliance upon the judgment or the investigator, as has been explained in Appendix A. After the normals have been obtained, the third step was to find the percentage by which the actual mortality exceeds or falls short of the normal.

For example, in April 1914, the actual number of deaths in Chicago was 3,298. Since April has only 30 days, this number needs to be corrected to 3,408, so as to show how many would have occurred if there had been 31 days. The normal mortality for 1914, is shown by the straight line of figure 29, is 2,998. If we reckon this as 100%, the true mortality was, 113.8%. Figure 28 is displayed on the page,

annual deaths in Chicago, 1915. When the true mortality for each month at each place had thus been reduced to percentages on the normal, the fourth step was to tabulate the percentages according to the temperature and humidity of the months in which they occurred. To take an actual example,

among the 28 cities of France and Italy, a month having a mean temperature of 19 degrees Celsius, and a mean humidity of from 61, percent to 65 percent occurred 10 times. The places where these conditions occurred are shown in column A of the following table. Column B shows the mortality in percentages and see the weight to be assigned to each place according to the number of inhabitants. The weighted average of column B, 91.4%, indicates the mean mortality rate in France and Italian cities with the temperature

averages 90 degrees Celsius and the humidity 61% to 65%. The average may equally well be expressed as a departure of 8.6% 100% to 91.4% from the normal. Figure 29 is displayed on the page. Monthly deaths in Chicago, 1911 to 1915. When the main mortality rates have thus been computed for all the combinations of temperature and humidity that occur in a given region, the departure of these rates from the normal mortality were plotted in diagrams like figure 30. In order to avoid irregularities, however, the departures in Figure 30 and in all the similar diagrams have been smoothed by averaging the departure for any given position on the diagram with adjacent departures. In every case, the departures received a weight of proportion to the number of people they represent.

Figure 30 represents the final tabulation of about 3,700,000 deaths in France and Italy, or of convenience in comparing with the American diagrams that very very much. Fahrenheit scale has been used, although the original computations were in the centigrade scale. Figure 30, unsmoved climate graph of France and Italy, 1890 to 1913. 3,700,000 deaths. Let us interpret figure 30. We may begin by inquiring what degree of mortality prevailed during months, where the mean temperature for day and night together was 75 degrees Fahrenheit, and the mean humidity, 75 to 80%. Define as we note at the top of the diagram the point where the humidity is between 75 and 80%. Then we go downward vertically to a temperature of 75 degrees as indicated on the left.

There we come upon the figure negative 1.5. This means that during the small number of months having this particular temperature and humidity, the depths were 1.5 less than the normal. During the much larger number of months having the same humidity with somewhat lowered temperatures, the mortality rate falls to negative 7.3, negative 11, and finally to negative 12.2, at a main temperature of 66 degrees. At lower temperatures, the mortality increases once more, for the minus departures, become smaller and smaller until at a temperature of about 51 degrees. The death rate at this particular humidity is the same as in normal. There is still lower temperatures we have thus departures, showing that the number of deaths,

was more than normal when the weather become cool. Finally, when the main temperature fell below freezing, the depths were more than 20% above the normal. In similar fashion, look at the depths at a temperature of 48 degrees. Beginning on the right of figure 30, we say that when the main humidity averaged over 90%, the depths were 40.1% less than the normal. At slightly lower humidities, conditions were still more favorable,

for the mortality was 4.6%. Further to the left, however, conditions became less and less favourable, at a humidity of 80% mortality is normal, and then increases until, in very dry months, with the humidity of 50 to 55%, it is positive 15.8%. Now what to bring about the salient features of figure 30, lines have been drawn at intervals of 5%. The heaviest or zero lines indicate the condition at which the normal number of deaths occur. One such line begins on the left at a temperature of about 74 degrees and extends nearly straight to the right with a bend upward at the end. Just above it comes a dotted line.

This means that about at 74 degrees the mortality rate was normal at 76 degrees and increased to 5% more than the normal. The next dotted line shows the mortality rate of 10% and so on. The dotted lines in this and in other diagrams indicate more than the normal number of deaths. while the southern lines indicate less. Such a diagram is called a climate graph. The lines may be called isoprax or lines of equal effect, from the Greek word isos meaning equal and practicos meaning effective.

They are analogous to the isobars or lines of equal pressure on the weather map. The isobrax divide the climate graph into zones. Eidsone indicates the degree of health to be expected among people living under its particular climatic conditions. In the central portion of figure 30, the isopractic lines are quite regular, for that part represents the temperatures and humidities that generally prevail.

On the borders of the diagram, especially at the top and bottom, the isoprax become irregular because the number of months having such extreme conditions is small. In order to do away with irregularity and the resulting confusion, the diagrams in the body of the text

have been simplified. That is, the isoprax have been smoothed. The figures for Depatriotes have been omitted, and the zones between the isoprax have been shaded. The darker shading indicates that the mortality is more than 10% below the normal. The next shading indicates a mortality ranging from normal to negative 10%, and so on. The degree to which the diagram in the text have been smooth may be judged by comparing figures 8A, 12A and 14A, with the corresponding diagrams numbered 8b, 12b and 14B. Footnote, the term climograph was introduced by Dr. Griffith Taylor in his

interesting paper on The Control of Settlement by Humidity and Temperature. Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology, Bullet No. 14, Melbourne 1916. His climber graph differs somewhat from the form here shown. One, he uses wet bulb temperature instead of the ordinary dry bulb temperature. This gives double weight to humidity and is of doubtful expediency. Two, he does not use isoprax. Instead of this, he plots the points indicating the mean wet-bulb temperature and the mean relative humidity for each month. The 12 points-size-fix are connected by lines, thus forming a closed figure, in order to provide some standard of a reference by which to judge whether the graph of a given place is favourable.

Taylor adds to each of his climate graphs a standard graph based on 12 large cities and regions where the white man prospers. This is an admirable method of bringing out the salient characteristics of a climate. The form of climograph used in the present paper was suggested by Mr. W. D. Pierce in a valuable paper on a new interpretation of the relationship at temperature and humidity to insect development. Journal of Agricultural Research, Volume 65, 1916, pages 1,183 to 1,191. But it is modified by some features taken from Taylor's men. Pierce's climbergraph pertains to the Cotton Bowl wee wall. It is based on the number of days required for development of the insect under different conditions of temperature and humidity. Although Pierce does not use the term isopract, his terminology suggested.

The climber graphs of both Taylor and Pierce are reproduced and described in the Geographical Review, Volume 4, November 1917, pages 402 to 403. Supplementary note After the final proofs of this book had gone back to the printer, the author learned that in the co-tecernment, the author learned that in the Kado's Scientific Journal, number 50, following 4, November 1910, Dr John Borg published an article entitled Climatological Diagrams. In this, he used the same form of climacraft

that Taylor later developed more fully in Australia, except that Boll used dry bulb temperatures where Taylor used wet bulb temperatures. Hence, while Taylor apparently introduced the term climacrath in this condition, and was the first to apply the method on large scale, the method itself should be ascribed to bore. Appendix C.

Extinction of mammals during the glacial period. The accompanying table shows the basis of figure 22. The first column shows the names of the geological periods from the beginning of tertiary times down to the present. The next three show the length of the periods, according to three diverse estimates. Solace's estimate represents the wholly inadmissible idea that the various periods were of approximately equal duration.

Matthews estimates based on fossil evidence supplemented by the thickness and character of the strata. Beryl has utilised these same data and also certain newly discovered facts as to the rate of which uranium and thorium lose their radioactivity and degenerate into a series of other metals ending in lead. The views of all three authors, together with references, are given in the paper by Beryl, listed in a penix D. Beryl's time scale seems to the present writer the best yet available, but for our present purpose it makes no difference whether we use the figures. of Matthew or Barrel. In the columns headed North American genera and European genera, the first column in each case shows a total number of genera of mammals listed by Osborne in his age of mammals. The next shows a number which became extinct, and the third gives the percentage of extinction.

Then come three columns showing the average percentage extinguished during 100,000 years according to which time scale. According to both Matthew and Barrel, the rate of extinction increased enormously, during the Pleicocene or Glacial Period. This is illustrated graphically in Figure 22, where the solid line shows rate of extinction according to Barrel and the dotted line according to Matthew. In interpreting Matthews figures, the percentages at the right must be multiplied by 10, while the names of the periods, as given at the bottom, must be crowded into the small horizontal distance occupied by the dotted curve. Incidentally, the effect of a

knowledge of radioactivity upon our conceptions of geological time is evident from the fact that according to Solas, and most of the earlier geologists, our entire diagram would have been crowded into the space occupied by the Upper Pleocene, U, and the Pleocene, PL, according to Barrel. In study in Figure 7, the thoughtful reader made once inquire whether the sudden apparent increase in the rate of extinction during the glacial period may not be due merely to the scantiness of our knowledge of earlier times. The reverse is actually the case.

The less we know of the fauna of an early period, the more probably is component. animals will appear to have become extinct. In general the older faunas are less fully known than the latter ones. This is evident from the following table which shows the approximate number of vermilionera known in all parts of the world during each period since the beginning of the tertiary. Basile Eocene 47, lower Eocene 47, middle Eocene 65, lower Eucluclcline 85, lower Oligocene 84, Middle Oliocluclcline 64, upper Oligococene Oligocene, 83, Lower Miocene, 67, middle Miocene 84, upper Miocene 148, lower Pleiocene 117, middle Pleiocene

105, Upper Pleistocene 98 Pleistocene, 181. At the beginning of the Eucene the number of genera may not have been as great, as in the Pleistocene, but surely the difference was nothing like so great as is indicated by the figures 47 and 181 in Table 11. Hence the chances of finding new forms from the Basel Eocene, for example, are much greater than from the police design. The chances are, however, that among these new forms the percentage that are not found in the succeeding period, and hence are considered to have been extinguished in the earlier period, will be the same as among the forms already known. On the other hand, there is a very large chance than among the many unknown forms of the lower Eocene, for example,

that will someday come to light a considerable number that have as yet been found only in the Basel Eocene and are now wrongly reckoned as extinguished during that period. A table is displayed on the previous page, extinction of mammalian genera during the tertiary and pleased to scene times. Since practically all living forms are known, however, there is almost no chance that any of the pleiocene forms now reckoned as extinct will be transferred to the opposite category. Hence while the percentage of apparently extinct forms will steadily decrease in earlier periods, it would change but slightly in the Pleistocene.

Accordingly, as knowledge increases, the earlier or left-hand portions of Figure 22 will fall steadily lower, the greatest fall being in the earlier periods. Thus it seems safe to say that the rate of extinction of mammals during the last glacial period was fully four times as rapid as the average during the preceding tertiary area. Appendix D, references Please see printed text for list of references Appendix E Proper air in houses

The facts presented in this book Make it clear that the quality of the air in our houses is even more important than is generally realized Little has been said however about how different kinds of air feel Nor about methods of obtaining the right kind of air Hence this appendix discusses the effect of different kinds of air upon our feelings While Appendix F gives certain simple

directions which will enable the householder to have the right temperature and humidity in his house with almost no outlife for equipment and with much greater comfort. In order to realize the effect of moisture upon our feelings, step into a greenhouse. Even in the cooler rooms where pansies, pinks and roses are growing, the air seems almost too warm and has a fresh spring-light quality. You could sit there comfortably all day and summer clothing. Yet the thermometer stands at only 60 degrees or at most 65 degrees. In a dwelling house in winter, such a temperature would make everyone shiver.

In the fall, however, dwelling houses frequently have this temperature and people feel quite comfortable. It is moisture that makes the difference. The so-called sensible temperature, that is, the effect of the air upon our senses, is very different from the actual temperature as measured by the ordinary thermometer. We see this illustrated again in the Gain in summer. On a damp day, a temperature of 90 degrees often causes sunstroke. Yet in our dry western deserts the same temperature does not feel particularly uncomfortable. The evaporation there keeps people so cool that they can work actively in the sun.

One way of testing the relation between humidity and sensible temperature is to watch the thermometer during the spring and fall. In September and October, or again in April and May, the thermometer breakfast time frequently stands at about 60 degrees not only out of doors but in the house, yet we feel comfortable without a fire. Another test would be possible in or any day when the thermometer outside stands at about 55 degrees. Let the inside temperature fall to 64 degrees. Without telling the family what you have done, ask them whether the house is too warm or too cool. 10 to 1, they will say it it is all right. Yet at the outside temperature were 10 degrees and the inside

temperature 64 degrees, they would all be shivering and urging you to open the draft of the furnace. Even if the outside temperature were only 30 degrees, they would still feel cool with the thermometer at 64 degrees inside. It is all a matter of moisture and thus a sensible temperature as opposed to actual temperature. On a rainy day, as you have chosen for your experiment, the outside air has a relative humidity of nearly 100%. When such air is brought into the house and hated to 64 degrees, his capacity for moisture increases so much that its relative humidity would fall to 60% if no new moisture were added. As a matter of fact, a little is added by people's breath and by evaporation from their bodies, as well as from plants and other sources. Hence, when

you try your experiment, the house may have a relative humidity of nearly 75% and a temperature of 64 degrees. In other words, you have reproduced the optimum conditions, which are much like those in the cooler kinds of greenhouses. Suppose now that the outside air has a temperature of 30 degrees and is bright and clear, so that the relative humidity is 70%. If the air is heated to 70 degrees in the house, its humidity will be 12% or perhaps 25% if allowance is made for additions of moisture from other sources. Such air makes people feel cooler than does the air at 64 degrees and 75% for it causes rapid evaporation from the skin and still more rapid

evaporation from the delicate mucus membranes or the nose and throat. These considerations lead us ask whether it is possible to construct a table showing what combinations of temperature and humidity give approximately the same feelings of warmth. A brief account of two sets of experiments will illustrate the way in which this has been attempted. First in Shanghai and Canton, China in the summers of 1902 and 1904, W.F. Tyler, an English official interested in climatology, secure the cooperation of a dozen persons of normal condition, regular habits, and equitable temperament, whose occupations were such as to preclude rush and worry and to render the

environment of all days essentially the same. Each noon they were asked to record their feelings according to a comfort scale, which zero means perfect comfort, while ten means that the eight is almost unbearable. His results appear in the following table. I have added column E to show what temperature would correspond to which, hither or degree on the scale of comfort if the relative humidity remained constant at 75%. A table is displayed on the page comparing scale of comfort or hither, number of days, average temperature, average relative humidity, estimated temperature if relative humidity were 75%,

and definition of hither's i.e. feeling at each point in the scale. Tyler's experiments were conducted in weather so warm, that no days were perfectly comfortable for all his subjects. The humidity made a great difference, however, as appears from the following table, where the temperature is shown on the left and the relative humidity at the top, while the hyther, or comfort vote, together with the number of cases on which it is based, appears in the body of the table. A table displayed on the page, comparing temperature-relative humidity to percentage of cases in high-fiel.

Notice that no matter what the temperature, the degree of discomfort, increases with higher humidity, that is the high-thirds in each line become higher as one passes from left to right. The second set of experiments was carried on by Affleck and Nap at the YMCA Training School at Springfield, Massachusetts. They took a comfort vote after a class of young men had been exercising for about an hour and a half. Their scale of hithers consisted of only three points, one too cool, two just right, and three too warm. In the table, 30 means just right, while in the table 30 means just right, while in the table. anything lower is too cool and anything higher too warm. During the experiments, the temperature ranged from 53 degrees to 70 degrees and the humidity

from 20% to 80%. As of all the temperatures and humidity were both much lower than those of TILO, the results are as follows. What table is displayed on the page comparing temperature relative humidity to percentage or less cases in either. For temperature between 66 and 70 degrees, this table agrees with that of TILO. As for all temperatures above the optimum, there is agreement. For lower temperatures, the data are not conclusive.

Between 61 degrees and 65 degrees, the air felt cooler at humidities below 40% than the humidity is of 41% to 60%. The difference between 34.1 and 34.3, however, is too slight to be important. At slightly higher humidity, with the temperature of 61 degrees to 65 degrees and at temperatures below 60 degrees, the table suggests that dry air feels warmer than that which is even more moderately moist. The number of cases, however, is altogether too small to be a conclusive. In passing, it is interesting note that the young men at the YMCA gymnasium felt most comfortable at a temperature of about 58 degrees when the humidity was above 65% and at a temperature about

61 degrees when the humidity fell below 20%. The fact that they had just been actively exercising accounts for the apparently low optimum. On the basis of these experiments and others, I've prepared the following table. It shows the approximate dry bulb temperature that would be necessary in a house under different conditions of weather in order to make people feel as warm as it would feel with a temperature of 64 degrees and a relative humidity of 75%. Table is displayed on the page, table of equivalent temperatures. Column C shows that on very cold winter days, with the thermometer at 10 degrees, the air in the house will have to be heated, to 76 degrees in order to feel as warm as greenhouse air.

It would then be as dry as the air of the driest deserts. Such conditions prevailed frequently in our houses, that is why we shiver in cold weather even when the thermometer is comparatively high in the house. That appears also to be one of the chief reasons why we catch so many colds, suffer so much from winter sickness and have so much poorer complexions than our English cousins.

The English, be it noted, live most of the time in fairly moist air. We, on the contrary, patch are poor mucus membranes to such an extent that they cannot resist the attacks of germs. The matter can scarcely be put too strongly. Recall how disagreeable the dryness of the air feels when the heat is first turned on. The heat itself may be grateful, but it gives the nose and throat a disagreeable feeling. Consider, too, how many people suffer from rough skins and from cracks around the fingernails?

The outside temperature may have something to do with this, but apparently at the end of dryness, is a much more potent cause. These considerations lead to conclusion that humidification of the air in houses should be universal during the winter. If the air has a humidity of 60% and a temperature of 64 degrees, that example for both health and comfort, such air can cool down to 55 degrees at night without danger of depositing moisture except on the windows. Even if the humidity is no more than 50%, our health and comfort will be greatly increased. If we would have the very best health, however, we must remember that it is not wise to preserve a uniform temperature and humidity.

The right average must be secured by varying the temperature first one way and then the other. The air in the ideal house should fluctuate back and forth from about 60 degrees to 68 degrees at irregular intervals. Such fluctuations may not seem pleasant at first. It begun in the middle of the winter after people have become softened by dry air and uniform temperature. So long as windows are kept open, however, they prevail naturally in the fall at the very time when people's health is best. If the conditions of those fall days with their optimum temperature, there are competitively high humidity and the variability

could prevail all winter, it seems probable that the appalling increase in our winter death rate will be much diminished. Another important consideration is the degree of movement of the air. In many houses the air moves so little that the upper part of a room may have a temperature of 75 degrees or on the floor of the thermometer records only 65 degrees. Such a condition of course undesirable, it can be avoided only by a proper system with ventilation. Having seen the nature of the atmospheric conditions most favourable to health, the next step is to secure them. The first and greatest requisite, as we have seen, is proper temperature. Today's 70 degrees is a standard indoor temperature although wise people see that 68 degrees would be better.

Our study of health shows that an average of 64 degrees is apparently high enough. If this were the only element in the problem, we could simply reduce our coal consumption until our rooms averaged 64 degrees instead of 70 degrees during the hours when we are not sleeping. That in itself, if we may judge from the experience of the New York schools would decrease the number of colds by nearly half. Such result would be due not merely to the more favorable temperature,

but also to the more favorable humidity. The average outside temperature in New York City from October to O'Pool, the months when houses are usually heated, is almost exactly 40 degrees, while the relative humidity is about 75%. When such air is taken into the house and heated to 70 degrees, its relative humidity is reduced to about 16%, provided no new moisture is added. Even with the addition of a little moisture from people's breath,

from pans in the furnace or from other sources, such air is as dry as that are the driest deserts, and it's very harmful to the mucus membranes. When the same air is heated to 64 degrees, its relative humidity without the addition of other moisture becomes about 30%. This is altogether too dry, but is much better than 16%. In a crisis like the war, which is coming to an end, as these lines are written, it is necessary to conserve coal in every possible way. It would seem as if the practice of having cooler air in our houses would be one of the best ways to accomplish this.

Normally the people of the United States burn about 120 million tons of coal each year in their houses. If the inside temperature were kept at 64 degrees instead of 70 degrees, the air taken in from outside would have to be warmed 24 degrees instead of 30, or for only 4 fifth as much as now. There would mean a corresponding decrease in the consumption of coal or a saving of 24 million tons per year. In order to be comfortable under such conditions we should have to dress more warmly than at present. We should also need to take more exercise in the morning and again towards night in order to set the blood in motion. At times when conservation of coal is not one of the most pressing demands, which means in ordinary times, the humidity as well as the temperature should be right. That means that when the winter air at an average temperature of 40 degrees and a humidity of 75, 25% is taken into our houses. It should not only be heated to 64 degrees, but should be caused to evaporate enough water to raise its humidity to about 50%.

Strange as it may seem, the latent heat required for the evaporation of water is so great, that more heat is required to bring the air to a temperature of 64 degrees and a humidity of 50% than to bring it to 70 degrees without humidification. The writer himself, yet an article prepared hastily at the request of the United States Fuel Administration, failed to appreciate the importance of this factor. There is a distinct difference, however, between the conservation of coal arising from the healthful practice of keeping the temperature down to about 64 degrees, and the somewhat increased consumption of coal arising from the much more healthful practice of keeping the temperature down to 64 degrees, and at the same time giving it the most favorable conditions of humidity. Yet this matter of humidity is so vital to human health that it seems wise to insert Appendix F. Directions are there given whereby the householder who cannot afford a patent humidifier can,

at a very slight expense, he provides a system that will give him a close approach to the right condition. As time goes on, far better methods will be developed. The author would be most grateful if his readers would send him suggestions along these lines. Finally, there is need of constant variety of temperature. This, as we have seen, gavats be brought about by direct window ventilation. In addition to that, however, the air in the ordinary house should be kept moving, so that the temperature on the floor and at the ceiling is the same. This is now done in theatres and other public buildings,

but it ought also to be the rule in dwellings. Some day our heating arrangements will be so far perfected that the air will always be right in both temperature and humidity. It will automatically be warmed and cooled, so that we may enjoy due variety, and it will be kept constantly, but gently in motion. When that day comes, we may expect that our health and ability in winter will be almost as great as is now the case in the best days of the autumn.

Appendix F Directions for Ventilation and Humidification 1. Ventilation The studies outlined in this book, indicate that the best and simplest method of ventilation is by means of ordinary windows. At frequent intervals the top should be lowered a little and the bottom raised about the same amount. It is important however to avoid drafts. Therefore every window should be fitted with a board at the bottom. If such a board is placed

an inch or two in front of the window as a height of five or six inches it will prevent the air from blowing directly into the room and yet will allow a complete change of air within a moderately short time. 2. Humidity. A. Houses heated by steam or hot water. 1. Take a piece of absorb in cotton cloth. Cut it as if you were going to make a curtain to place between your radiator and the wall. Make it long enough to lie 5 or 6 inches on the floor.

Make a hem so that a curtain rod, string or wire, can be run through it. 2. Fasten a sash-curtain rod horizontally behind each radiator and hang the curtain from it. If you have no curtain rods, simply run a string or wire through a little curtain and tie the string around the radiator. Put a little block of wood under the string at either end to hold it out from the radiator. This will let the curtain hang freely between the radiator and the wall. 3. It may be necessary to place an additional rod or string near the bottom of the radiator in order to prevent a moist cloth from striking against the wall and damaging the paper. A tuck can be made at this level and the rod or cord can't run through it. 4. Under the radiator, place a pan as deep as a radiator will allow, and large enough so that it comes to the front.

Ordinary dripping pans will do excellently. Fill them with water morning and evening. 5. Gave the cloth together at the bottom so that it will lie in the pan and spread it out of the top. 6. From time to time and as well to wash the curtains, for otherwise they lose the power of absorbing water. If your walls are cold, it may be a wise precaution to place oil cloth behind each radiator. to prevent possible injury from the condensation of moisture. When the pans are filled with water, the absorbent cloths will draw the water up,

thus giving a large evaporation service. The air that is heated by the radiator naturally moves upward, and the movement is greatest back of the radiator. There will be thus a constant current of warm air moving along the surface of the cloth and causing abundant evaporation. This simple contrivance gives all the humidity required at a very small cost.

In using it, remember that if you succeed in getting much moisture into the air, you must avoid letting the room get too hot, not over 65 degrees. If the room gets up to 70 degrees or over, the humidity makes the air uncomfortable, and when the room cools down, a little of the moisture in the air may condense and harm the wallpaper. B. Houses heated by hot air furnaces. Method 1. For registers near the wall or in protected parts of the room.

1. Lift up the iron grating of the register. 2. on the floor beside the register lay a piece of stiff oil cloth a little smaller than the grating. Put it on the side next to the wall and that the edge protect an inch over the opening of the register. The oil cloth is designed to protect the floor and also to keep the wet cloth off the metal parts of the register. 3. Put a brass bowl or other dish of water close to the register on the oil cloth. 4. Put the end of a piece of absorbing cloth into the bowl and weigh it down so that it will not push out.

Spread the other end over the edge of the oil cloth and let it hanged down a foot or more into the register, taking pains that it is spread out as much as possible. Weight to the lower corners of the cloth to prevent it from being blown up by the draught from the furnace. 5. Put back the grating, arranging it in such a way that the side towards the cloth is propped up a little with bits of wood or wads of paper.

Method 2. For registers in exposed situations where a bowl of water would be likely to be kicked over. One, inside the register and a foot or two below the grating, place some kind of receptacle for water. The receptacle should be large enough to prevent the flow of air. It may be hung from the grating if necessary. 2. From the grating suspend one or two little curtains like those already described. If two curtains are placed parallel, the water can be poured into the pans between them, and it will not be likely to slop over. 3. In using this device, is important to fill the pans carefully in order to avoid pouring the water down the hot air flu.

C. Houses heated by stoves Keep an open kettle on the stove. A pan and a curtain such as I described under A above may be placed back for the stove provided. Care is taken to avoid the danger of fire should the cloth get dry. End of Section 14 and the end of World Power and Evolution by Ellsworth Huntington. Thank you.