Dan Snow's History Hit - Prisoners of Geography

Episode Date: April 19, 2021

Five years ago Tim Marshall wrote the international best selling book Prisoners of Geography which examined how our politics, demographics, our economies and societies are determined by geography. Tim was diplomatic editor at Sky News and has also worked for the BBC and LBC/IRN radio. He has reported from 40 countries and covered conflicts in Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Israel. He used his expertise and understanding in international affairs to look at the deep history of this planet both in Prisoners of Geography and in his latest book The Power of Geography where he explores further how our world is shaped by its geography.

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Sleep well., explore more. Hi everybody, welcome to Dan Snow's History Hit. Every so often a book goes completely bonkers and sells a million copies all around the world. That happened to The Power of Geography by Tim Marshall. He was diplomatic editor at Sky News. He travelled the world. He looked at the world's problems. He met participants in wars, crises all over the world. And he reflected on all this expertise he'd gathered in a book, Prisoners of Geography. It talked about just how our politics, demographics, our economies are determined by geography. It's not the first

time we talked about the subject on the podcast. I love going back into deep history of this planet, trying to understand what is going on in the world. And it was great to have Tim Marshall on talking about his extraordinary success, his New York Times bestseller, his previous book, and his new one coming out. More geography, folks. There's plenty more geography where that came from. If you want to watch documentaries or check out previous interviews I've done on the same sort of topic with people like Professor Lewis Dartnell, please head over to historyhit.tv.

It's like Netflix, but just for history. It's a wonderful, wonderful resource, growing all the time. Tens of thousands of people subscribe, so thank you very much to all of you guys. You can watch documentaries on there, listen to back episodes of this podcast, and all for a tiny subscription,

which is less than gin and tonic you're about to buy because pubs have now reopened. But in the meantime, everyone, enjoy Tim Marshall and me talking about geography. Hello, Tim. Great to have you on the podcast. Greetings. We're not in America, but but you know, thank you for having me. Greetings. Why do you think there's been such an extraordinary, you've enjoyed such extraordinary success talking about political geography? Was it something that people, were we in our silos, the people that think about Oxbow Lakes and mountain ranges, weren't thinking about the sort of history and how things turn out? I think two things, Dan. One, I managed to strike a chord at a particular time. At a particular time, which is what we're going into in the new book, but if you're referring to prisoners of geography, which struck this chord, it comes at a time after the 2008 crash, it comes at a time when we're accelerating into a multipolar world where things are very confusing, where especially certain generations are used to

a bipolar world, and suddenly, what's going on? And it just managed to put things into context of what's going on and why they're going on. From my perspective, you know, whether that's right or wrong, but it gave context to a very difficult time. And I think the second thing is, and forgive me for boasting, but I write inhuman. Whereas a lot of people who write about geopolitics use the language of the high priests. And I don't see any point in doing that. I still shout at the television, if an economics correspondent talks about laissez-faire economics, why are you speaking in French? So I think when you put the two things together, it just struck a chord. It was a word

of mouth book. That was how it sold. It wasn't through advertising or even through much through reviews. But I'm very grateful, really pleased about it. And it was able to give me a second life. I think you're probably right about the re-emergence of the end of the end of history and the re-emergence of regional competition multipolar you know you say bipolar maybe even a unipolar world the brief period of kind of american complete hegemony yeah so we need to start learning about things like deep water ports and ice-free ports and like economic resources and where they happen to fall within the planet around the planet it seems

that you're one of many books at the moment looking into our deeper history our geography our science the geology of the planet and seeing how it's shaping us today i mean talk me through some of your favorite examples i mean what do you like to is it is it russia's insecurity on its western frontier for example there is apart from a bit of a big marsh there is no great defense there's no great delineator of russia's west exactly um that is actually the best example it's why i use that back in the prisoner's book as the first example of the first chapter, because, okay, my starting point is that a nation-state's story begins from where it is situated, which sounds obvious, but like many things, as George Orwell says, one of the hardest things is to see what's right in front of your nose. So your story starts from where you are, where your rivers lead you, where is the sea and

which sea lanes is it going to? Where are your mountains? Who are your neighbours? That is your starting point. It's not entirely deterministic. We get a vote, humans. But if you approach an understanding of geopolitics from that perspective, and then you layer onto it the history, then you layer onto it the politics, I think at that point you've got a brilliant prism through which to understand things. And Russia is a great example. When you know that it's flat in front of Moscow, and when you know that it's flat land all the way to France, but that the narrowest point of the North European plain is that gap between the Baltic Sea and the

Carpathians, which is 300 miles wide. When you know that that's called Poland, a number of things fall into place. That's why Poland keeps disappearing from the map every now and again. But it's also, when you layer on the history, when you know that the Swedes went that way into Russia, the Lithuanians, the French, Napoleon, 1812, the Germans in 1914, the Germans in 1941. When you know that, that absolutely suddenly slots into place why the Russians feel the way they do now, why they choose to dominate. I say choose, perhaps they don't have a choice. The flat ground in front of them, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, and they would love to get Poland back into their sphere of influence.

You know, it's those three things that come together, but they start from the geography. What about, I've talked about Brexit and geography on this podcast a lot. Do you have thoughts about that kind of sense of British exceptionalism? Yes. Actually, in the new book, Power of Geography, there is a whole chapter on the UK and how its geography has affected its politics. There is a case of British exceptionalism, and it's rooted in geography. It's real. Whether it's right or wrong, I tend not to bother with those things that they get in the way of trying to understand. But it's because it's an island. those things that they get in the way of trying to understand. But it's because it's an island. I think it's underestimated the impact, the psychological impact, which you can't really measure, of that little stretch of water between the UK and the continent. The British actually,

in some ways, are rather like the Japanese. So I think that had an aspect of it. I think there is such a thing as a collective historical memory. You know, when we're waiting for the bus, you don't sort of start thinking about your collective historical memory, but I think that such a thing exists. Hold on, Tim. Yes, you do.

Well, you do. You might. That's what people on this podcast do, yeah. Geeks of the world unite. Yeah, we do. But, you know, I do believe this. Do you think there's such a thing as a historical memory for a nation state? Well, we're fighting about that at the moment, aren't we? I mean, I think historians would say there are different histories, aren't there?

There are different parallel histories. Okay, sorry, I'll try to come to the point of the question. So I think it had an impact. Inner psychology as a nation had an impact on it. as a nation had an impact on it. In the new book, I've turned the UK on its side, and we look at it side on with Europe stretching out ahead of it. We're looking eastwards. And you suddenly see in one glance that Britain is free to access the great sea lanes of the world without any impact. You know, if you want to have a great navy and a global navy and you're Switzerland, there's a bit of a drawback there. You know, and I talk about how we had lots of oak trees because we used to make ships out of wood and oak is very strong. And then we had coal, very good for powering it. So, yeah, I go into the psychology of it. As an aside, Dan, I also talk

about that if Scotland becomes independent, which would be because of, mostly because of Brexit, if it happens, I think a lot of people have not thought of one of the consequences, which is that the British nuclear deterrent for the then rump UK has nowhere to park its submarines because they're in the Clyde and the SNP is adamant it will be nuclear free. And it's going to take 10, 15 years to build a new base and billions and billions of pounds. So in that interim period, where does Britain park its nukes? So, you know, there's an awful lot that flows from Brexit and geography.

And apparently geography, the reason they are in the Clyde is because it was the cloudiest place in Britain. Didn't know that. Yeah, they parked the nuclear deterrent underneath the clouds. Well, you've got to be right there, Dan. But I think it's got to be also that's where the natural terrain of the coastline will have lent itself. Because I know that the MOD is scouting the southern coast of England now just in case. And they're coming up short, mostly, of where to park these things in the case it happens.

The Americans would probably offer to, you know, you can park them over there if you want for a few years. But nightmare if you're in the MOD. What about, what else in the world at the moment do you think we need to explain or think about in terms of geography that's not being sort of flagged enough that's if i think oh i mean pretty much everywhere but i was just looking in in the the times newspaper there's a big piece about um nato and jan stoltenberg being very worried about the arctic circle but again i was writing about this five years ago and it's it's still accelerating towards an area of real competition because of the global warming. I think climate change and its impact on population movements is underestimated.

Bangladesh is one of the greatest examples. The salination of its coastline, increasing each year, more and more land becomes salinated. Because the sea rushes up through the rivers, the rivers overflow, the land becomes full of salt. You can't grow anything. People move. And that will be a destabilizing factor. And there are stories like that all over the world at the present. The Sahel, it's a disaster down there at the moment.

And it's partly because of desertification. I mean, there's a number of other factors as well, but that's one of them. And I don't think people quite understand the impact of climate change on population movement, which then, of course, impacts politics in the countries, both that people are leaving and the ones that they're going to. You're listening to Dan Snow's History Hit. We're talking about the power of geography. More after this.

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Each week on Echoes of History, we uncover the epic stories that inspire Assassin's Creed. We're stepping into feudal Japan in our special series Chasing Shadows, where samurai warlords and shinobi spies teach us the tactics and skills needed not only to survive, but to conquer. Whether you're preparing for Assassin's Creed Shadows or fascinated by history and great stories, listen to Echoes of History, a Ubisoft podcast brought to you by History Hits. There are new episodes every week. is geography destiny i mean yeah of course it was very handy that britain was upwind you know the southwesterly winds blowing we're kind of upwind of the dutch during the anglo-dutch wars but a is it destiny and b is it still destiny because we've got all this we've got this technology now we can we can do things we can pump out the fens we could you know we can plant trees and change the landscape like no other civilization before geography is not destiny

but it is a determining factor amongst others you know great leaders are one people and the ideas that emerge from them are another. These are all determining factors. So, yeah, I mean, I'm not a determinist. And, you know, that is a dodgy area. But I do disagree that it is any less relevant than it ever was. And I will come to a very up-to-date and, in fact, future scenario in a moment. Geography is every bit as important as it ever was.

Okay, here's two examples. Ethiopia. In Africa, many of the great rivers start in very high ground and tumble down very quickly over waterfalls. Well, that's rubbish for trade. And for thousands of years, it's rubbish for everything except maybe drinking and fishing. Trade? Rubbish. When we arrive in the 21st century, Ethiopia now has the technology to harness the

Blue Nile, which tumbles down rapidly, and is building the Grand Renaissance Dam, which they say will give free electricity to every house in Ethiopia, transforming people's lives. But that doesn't make the geography of it any less important. It just changes what you do with that geography. A second example before I come on to the big one. If warfare, for example, or geography doesn't matter now because we've got cruise missiles. Well, no, you still have to launch them from somewhere, which then becomes a target, which your opposition then has to factor in,

well, how far is it? What is the flying time? What is the terrain? Where do we put radar systems? It simply changes what you do with the geography. And the last one I've got, this is the last chapter in the new book, space and the geography of space.

You know the choke points of the world, the Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz. And you know if anybody did control them all, they pretty much control movement. And movement of goods is still 90% by water. Well, there is something similar in space. If you were to control low Earth orbit, that's a choke point. If you control all the satellites and your killer satellites have killed their killer satellites, you control, A, the complete ability to look at what's happening on the Earth, which is increasingly important, and you can blind your opponents.

Secondly, it's a choke point because in a few years, we are going to be able to refuel the spacecraft on their way out in low Earth orbit. It takes more energy to get from the ground to low Earth orbit than it does to get from low Earth orbit all the way to Mars, 50 million miles or whatever it is. So the point I'm making is the geography in the 21st century cutting edge technology is that if you control those choke points in low Earth orbit, you control who can travel to outer space. How is that not every bit as relevant as geography ever was since year dot? Yeah, I mean, that's definitely important. Shall we go?

Yeah, we're done. Our work here is done. So as technology changes, it just opens up different planes. Exactly. In which that geography matters. Exactly. Is your passion for this born from what you saw as a journalist? Yeah. I mean, a lot of what I think now was shaped. On the negative side, it has given me a certain realist approach,

which does not sit easily with my hippie side, if you like, you know, my warm, cuddly, want to buy the world a coat and teach it harmony side. But I'm afraid my experiences did make me pretty much of a realpolitik when it comes to foreign policy and international relations. It is not a zero-sum game. So it is born out of that. I mean, one of the seminal moments was seeing a village on fire in Bosnia, asking the people that set it on fire why they did it, and explaining to me that, well, it's obvious, isn't it? They all ran away, and the next village will run away as as well and then we control the valley. That's entirely logical. Mindless violence is a phrase I try not

to use because there's usually a logic to violence. But through all that, what I do try and retain, and what I do try to put in the books after talking about death and pestilence for long periods of time, is to take the view of someone who wrote a book a couple of years ago that was very good, American, but basically how good things are. Death and childbirth down and education rates up and diseases being eradicated. I forget his name, but he took a lot of stick because he was talking about absolute poverty

is down and it is absolute poverty and you know look there is a veil of tears in many parts of the world but life has always been quite difficult now is probably a better time to be alive than ever yeah steven pinker yeah i'm glad i. Listeners to this podcast will know that I can be fascinated by other centuries, but my goodness, we are very lucky. Sometimes if I give a talk at a school, I'll say to the kid, right, you're the Queen Elizabeth I. Right. Would you rather be the Queen of England when she was alive

or you now just living in an ordinary street? And some of them know fall for it and say oh i'd like to be the queen of england say well did you know that she suffered from terrible toothache excruciating pain many many years of her life couldn't do very much about it except you know probably brush it with a twig or whatever whereas you can just go down the dentist and it's sorted now who would you rather be and a lot lot of them think, well, actually, too thick. But that's just one sort of very small example. But it is, you know, we live like kings

compared to previous centuries. No, we do. I mean, most of us literally live like kings now. It is extraordinary. I agree. Not in many parts of the world. You just reminded me something from three questions ago about how geography doesn't matter. Again, there's a line in the book about, well,

there are these folk who say the world is flat and geography doesn't matter anymore. And they are the people that get in aeroplanes and fly over places to talk to people. And then they go home and they talk to people on Zoom. Whereas most of the other 8 billion of us, if you're in Egypt, you are still entirely reliant on your water from Ethiopia. And 100 other examples, most of us. Sorry, I've just completely cut across you and gone back three questions, but I think it's a good example. It is. And if you're reliant on Ethiopia for your water, you're probably a bit worried about that big dam they're building. Yeah, well, Egypt is having to think about diversification. They haven't already moved where some of their crops are going to be because their water will reduce. I mean, it would be akin to an act of war if Ethiopia did

turn the tap off. So it's not going to, but it probably will reduce some of the flow to Egypt. But it would absolutely be an act of war because Egypt could not survive 85 percent of the population live within a few miles of the banks of the river well there we go so thank you very much for coming on the podcast and joining the many geographers that we get on here reminding these historians listening that it's all about the earth the earth beneath our feet the water lapping on our hulls and the air in our lungs. And now the space above our heads. Goodness me. That's an amazing thought as well.

Thank you very much, Tim. Great honour to have you on. And what is the next book called? The Power of Geography. I'm very happy that it's out. It's been in me a long time and now it's out. It's been five years since I wrote Prisoners of Geography and I just thought, why don't I not update it, write a brand new one with the areas I missed

last time because it wasn't space. So we're going to Australia, Spain, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Sahel, other places, and we're going to space, which is my favourite chapter. Well, and you're not going to run out of

geography, so I look forward to the next one as well thank you very much Tim thank you I feel we have the history on our shoulders all this tradition of ours our school history our songs

this part of the history of our country all were gone and finished I hope you enjoyed the podcast just before you go a bit of a favour to ask I totally understand

if you don't want to become a subscriber or pay me any cash money makes sense before you go, a bit of a favour to ask. I totally understand if you don't want to become a subscriber or pay me any cash money, makes sense. But if you could just do me a favour, it's for free. Go to iTunes or wherever you get your podcast. If you give it a five-star rating and give it an absolutely glowing review, purge yourself, give it a glowing review,

I'd really appreciate that. It's tough weather, the law of the jungle out there, and I need all the fire support I can get. So that will boost it up the charts. It's so tiresome, but if you could do it, I'd be very, very grateful. Thank you. Your adventure deserves better sleep. RVers and road warriors, why sleep on a stock mattress after investing in your rig? Upgrade to a Haven RV mattress. Canada's only RV specific sleep brand. Lightweight, breathable, and built to resist mold

and moisture. It's comfort as good as home. No compromises on your holiday. Make every stop a five-star sleep at havenmattress.ca. Sleep well. Explore more. you