Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 101: 2022 NBA Draft Prospects - An In-Depth Look at Keegan Murray

Episode Date: June 15, 2022

This episode takes a close look at highly-ranked draft prospect Keegan Murray. Thank you to Price for guesting on the show once more. This episode will be followed up with a series of shorter evaluations of prospects likely to be selected later in the lottery, with an eye toward potential draft targets should the Pistons acquire another lottery pick in a prospective Jerami Grant trade.

Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Drive into the Basket, part of the Basketball podcast network. I am Mike coming back at you again with the prospect preview. Join for a third time by Price, who is one of the only people I know who is as obsessively preoccupied with the draft as I am. Thank you, Price for joining us again. Happy to talk basketball anytime. Absolutely. So today we're going to be talking about every Piston fan's favorite prospect, to Keegan Murray, being somewhat facetious there, obviously is a pretty controversial prospect. So we're doing our typical deep dive into him.

This is going to be the last of the prospect deep dives prior to the draft, which is only nine days away from the day we're recording this. Going to be doing a bunch of draft shorts, sort of short, not so deep dives on some of the prospects that persons could be looking at if they are to acquire another lottery pick and a potential Jeremy Grant trade. I'm going to be posting those, I don't know, every day or two,

leading up to the final pre-draft pre-draft episode post the next Wednesday but today Keegan Murray so just a quick note heading into talking about Murray about just because the guy

not Keegan Murray but because the guy being James Edwards has been on the show and is a nice dude he's I know caught quite a bit of flack from angry fans who maybe absolutely and I would imagine probably none of you who listen to the show about angry fans on Twitter so

I guess this is just me trying to be supportive. Yeah, don't shoot the messenger, number one, number two, even if you're on the internet and you're getting a lot of flack, even from people you don't even know, that can be hard on somebody. It's just, yeah, I just wanted to say that. It's just the tough situation to be in. As far as James is concerned, yeah, I'm quite confident that he's a guy who reports what he hears. So, all right, so moving on to Keegan Murray, the man himself. So he is a 6 foot 8, 225 pounds, be about 22 years old when he plays the first NBA game out of the University of Iowa. And I'll preface, I'll qualify the height same as I have with any other prospect. That's NCAA height with shoes. Though Murray, I would guess, is probably at least 6'7. So wingspan about 7 foot and a prolific college score in a sophomore season. Averaged 23 and a half points per game on good efficient. see about 64% true shooting that included 40% from three and about five attempts per game. And nine rebounds, one and a half assists, one and a half steals, two blocks, two turnovers,

two fouls, and got to the line a fair amount to about five and a half free throw attempts per game. Not the greatest percentage there, only about 75%. So just a brief profile on him, definitely a very good perimeter shooter and a strong interior score in the NCAA largely imposed up attempts, which unfortunately don't really train. translate to the NBA, but good touch around the basket, a good body control with the ball down low, a pretty strong rebounder, and almost certainly could have been a national player of the year in the end, in NCAA D1 basketball, you know, for what that's worth. But I feel like profiling a player, I mean, we're going to go into very significant detail on him. So yeah, we'll just go

ahead and do that rather than going into a more expansive general profile on things that we're going to be talking about later anyway. All right. So Price, what would you say you like best about Murray as an NBA prospect? Definitely the shooting. I think that it's going to be a very translatable skill for him, regardless of whatever team he ends up on because the mechanics, the footwork, quick shot, gets it off in all kinds of situations and all kinds of coverages. and it falls out of very respectable clip on good volume. And that is going to be, I think, the main draw for us as Pistons fans going forward if he's on our team.

Yeah, definitely. At NBA, high volume, high percentage three point shooting is always going to be an extremely valuable skill in the NBA, no doubt about that. And like you said, Murray, good mechanics, translatable shot. and he doesn't only do it on kind of basic catch and shoot opportunities as well. I mean, that's a very valuable skill too. But he's a player who really makes the smart reads, knows when to reposition himself, knows how to get open,

and can fairly quickly catch the ball, gather and take a shot and have it go in. That's at a respectable rate. He shot very close to 40% in the NCAA, and he was very good from above the break. You know, corner shooting is nice, but the vast majority of the spacing players are going to be doing is the best spacing a player can provide is from above the brakes.

So yeah, it could be definitely his bread and butter in the NBA in the long term. Do you see any upside at all for him as like a motion shooter or a pull-up three-point shooter? Yeah, I definitely see upside in that regard. I think that there is a very realistic path that he can get. to where he's able to take a couple dribbles and then make a pull up the very good fundamentals with like his footwork in general. So I think that that's a good asset to sort of build off. And then again, very smart at relocating. So now he just has to do that relocation on the move and get his shot off quickly. And then I think we'll see him be a very effective

not maybe elite level. I wouldn't put him into like a Benedict Mathron or AJ Griffin, let alone a Jabari level of shooting prospect in this draft. But I think that it'll be one of his main assets for sure. Yeah, totally agree. Yeah. And, you know, if you can, I mean, that's just a player like that who can play decent defense and just shoot threes on high volume

and high percentage the guy who's going to stick in the league for a long time. it's just it's a great skill to have for anybody. If you can just couple a high percentage shooting with it being able to shoot off relocation and just knowing where to go. Like this is something that, that Sadiq Bay is very good at, for example, just knowing where to go to get open, just being able to see ahead, make the right reads and get to the right spots.

Like I remember a couple of years ago, after you joined the starting lineup, and this was leading probably the last month or two, leading up to the end of the season prior to the, you know, season prior to last. So leading up to what would be the 2021 lottery. And we wanted the pistons to lose. And Sadiq Bay was constantly getting open shots. And it's like even against good teams, you're thinking, why aren't you covering this guy? Like, how is he getting open shots? I want

the pistons to lose. Start playing better defense. And but a lot of it's just that that Sadiq knows the right places to go to get open. And Kagan, I believe, has as that quality as well. And, yeah, as far as pull-up threes, I mean, great asset to have in terms of just creating a high percentage shot in the half court, like 35% on pullouts if you're shooting consistently is a good mark. So definitely got the shooting. And, you know, if he can develop, you know, good mid-range pull-up, great. Vast majority you guys don't. So what I think is his other primary skill right now that he displayed in college is

transition offense. 100% agree that his ability to get up and go, both like catching a rebound and then giving a nice dish to a teammate that's streaking up the floor or himself just grabbing and going. He can get up to a very good top speed and he can be very hard to stop in transition. So that is definitely one of his main weapons that will very projectively translate to the NBA game, at least right away. Yeah, totally agree. It's valuable to have those kinds of players who are both strong rebounders who can reliably get that

defensive board and then just jet up the floor with it. So Murray isn't the most explosive in the half court, but if you give him time to get up the speed, I mean, I think he'll be a good transition athlete in the NBA. You can get up to that very high top speed. He can finish above the rim if he's got that runway. And he's got good touch. So that's something the pistons lack right now is a player who's really strong, able to both effectively attack the defensive boards and then just take it up the floor right away.

So that that would definitely fill in niche. the pistons don't currently have the shooting as well also. Of course, the pistons are desperately in need of reliable shooting. So what other strengths do you really see of his at the NCAA level things he did well that you think will be able to translate under the NBA? I mean, I know you and I privately have discussed his post offense, which was really his bread and butter, which isn't likely to translate to the NBA, which is where NCAA post offense goes to die. Extremely difficult. Very, very, very, very, very few guys can make post-offense worthwhile in terms of efficiency on volume in the NBA. But do you think he's going to find a use for it to some degree in the NBA?

I think that against smaller players, kind of like Bay, he can kind of post down, if you will. He can back him back to the basket and then make pretty decent. He gets pretty decent looks off of his turnaround. I kind of like that skilled more than what Bay. flashed at least early last season where he was doing that a lot and it was like please stop ever doing that um so i think there's a little bit more hope that he can be an effective uh matchup post player and do that on a very occasional level like probably less than one post up a game just in like the you know one one to less than one like point seven five i don't want to give like

an exact number on that. That seems like an effort and futility. However, yeah, the post office is definitely going to be the thing that is going to have to be replaced with something else in the NBA the most if he's actually going to be reliable, like second, third option on a team that has any real prospects. Yeah, definitely. I'd say he's quite a bit better in the post than Bay, who basically, yeah, you just see him back down small. guys and then generally help will come and he'll find himself in no man's land. Kigam is actually, like his work in the post in the NCAA was actually pretty darn good. I mean, he's got, he's got good footwork, he's got good body control, he's got really good touch,

and he's a strong player. And yeah, so I think, yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised you see him get one or two shots per game in that area. And, you know, who knows, maybe he can make it kind of a reliable method of creation on low volume. I definitely agree with you on the low volume. But, you know, it could be a decent tool in his box, so to speak. But, yeah, again, totally agree that this is not going to be a primary means of creation for him in the NBA. So, yeah, so does transition work, his shooting, his work, you know, whatever that's going to be in the NBA from the post? Yeah, I mean, I think should

be noted as well. Fairly strong offensive rebounder, just a guy who's good at getting himself in position to pick up a board. And when he gets it, is good at depositing it in the basket, too. So you've got some versatility there, I feel like. Yeah, that's one of his big selling points is just a guy who puts himself in a lot of positions to succeed on the basketball court. Not going to be a guy who really beats you off just sheer athleticism alone like Jayne Ivy or even Benedict Mathrin, but he'll be a guy who is just plays within himself almost always and will track down boards, crash the rim, very strong and heady, good combination of, I think, strength and finesse around the rim, which I think will serve him well. It's just a matter of,

can he get there reliably? Yeah. Do you see any upside for him as? as a role man, for example. I mean, that's, I think we can see. I would say he's got significant upset as a pick and pop player, just as a large player who is, yeah, who will be able and willing to set good screens. And then you have whoever it is, Kate Cunningham, Killingh, is going around that screen.

And then you have Murray just pop out to the three-point line, which I think would be a very high percentage look for him. Do you think he has any upside on the roll at all? I think he has some as like an occasional role man because of his just great touch. He's good at catching the ball, unlike Isaiah, who I love, love beef stew, but... Bad hands? Yeah, just not great, like, touch with actually receiving the basketball.

So that makes, like, getting him the ball even harder on top of the athleticism. So we have, like, somewhat similar athletic concerns with Keegan. however, at the very least, I think that he might not be a true lob threat, but maybe as just a guy who can go in and kind of on those pick and rolls, he'll be able to at least get into the paint and try to make something happen. And he'll make an effort, that's for sure, down low. Yeah, yeah, I think he put it well. He's a guy who's going to receive the ball well, and he's definitely got good touch.

And yeah, I'll respect him off to Isaiah. who's got many good qualities. Yeah, catching the ball is not really one of them. And I don't think he's really even particularly strong interior score. But, yeah, agree on the role. I mean, Kagan doesn't really have the athletic qualities to make up with the fact that he's not very tall. I don't think that's necessarily in this future.

But who knows? I mean, something that I think deserves discussions, a potential asset is his capacity to possibly play small ball five, maybe in postseason situations. You know, just that something you'd see would be possibly an effective, an effective role for him. And I know in postseason situations, we're seeing small ball five be more and more of a thing,

in part just with switchable defenders. But do you think that could be an advantageous, something he could provide that could be advantageous in certain situations on offense? Yeah, I think that is exactly like one of the more intriguing components to his game is that when lineups get small, I think that he'll do really well. against those kind of like four, five tweener types. Not that I'd say that he's exactly like a tweener.

I think he's kind of strictly a four, but due to like the smarts and due to the strength, that is something we don't really have on this team is like a really effective, like small ball option. I feel really comfortable about him being like the big and then, because he can also space the floor, And then he can also be a nice presence down low when needed on really small, against really small lineups.

Yeah. And in that situation, you might feel a little bit more comfortable running him as a role man, even, of course, in those small ball situations, you're not really worrying too much about the pig and roll. It's more about just generating good matchups and having maximum floor spacing. But in that situation, if you're up against the much smaller defender, you might feel better about that.

Because, you know, Kegan is not super athletic. He is, again, I would guess, between 6'7 and 6. eight without shoes and it's around seven foot in the wingspan so yeah i agree that could be a situation in which in which he sees good use in the postseason as well that if if he's up against a smaller center you might see his uh his talents as a post score be more valuable uh because yeah i mean just the situation when when he's he'd be more able to to overpower his opponent and he's still going to have to be just genuinely good at his craft in the NBA to make that worthwhile but that's a situation in which you might see that be a little bit more translatable.

So, yeah, I'd say, agree, that's an intriguing, an intriguing potential positive for him. So just going back to the rebounding really quick. I mean, the guys, and this is going to be a theme for us about Keegan, I think, just that smart rebounder, a guy who just tends to know where to be to pick up often long rebounds. And like you said, Bryce, he's, you know, both on the defensive and the offensive ends. he's perfectly willing. I mean, he's 100% just on point in terms of getting to the right spot no matter what.

And it's a valuable skill to have. He doesn't have the greatest vertical lift, but he's got good instincts and he works hard for it. So, yeah, just moving on to his defense. Again, I mean, there are some pluses and some minuses there, but again, just strong in terms of defensive IQ and strong in terms of how hard he works those are both valuable assets definitely yeah no even on plays where i don't think he's doing he's

playing particularly well he's at least playing hard on defense and ultimately when you have a seven foot wingspan and you're a guy who's going to play north of 230 235 in in a in your prime and you play hard and you're long and strong like that that'll kind of get you to at least where you need to be to hang defensively and just not be exploitable in the postseason. And we see that time and time again that even a guy who is great on offense and acceptable and the regular season, once you get to the postseason, it can just those small little micro like matchups, teams will just hunt for them and hunt for them and hunt for them. Yeah, those small advantages, yeah.

Yes. And they will exploit them until. to the nth degree. And that, at least with Kagan, like he has his issues, but he's not going to be a guy who's going to just give up on plays. Oh, totally agree. The guy never gives up on anything, definitely. And on defense, I think you'll, you'll see some switch the switchability that's found with him is, I think, going to be more strength switchability than speed switchability, which, you know, his ability to switch on the faster NBA players. I mean, that's still a question mark. I think that if he gets switched onto his center, he will be able to put up a fair fight

because the guys at about 225 right now could definitely get stronger. I know that you think he has the capacity to put on a cell at 10 more pounds. I mean, he is at this point very well built while still appearing kind of lanky. Yeah. So, yeah, so I think that he'll do well on matchups that require strength. And he's no slouch in terms of his foot speed. There are just some questions about if he's going to be. going to be able, maybe questions about how good his foot speed is really in terms of switching,

but definitely knows how to position himself, knows where to be as a smart defender who sees the floor, and definitely works hard. Yeah. And also, like in the NCAA, he was able to parlay that's just intuition about positioning into generating a fair number of steals and also into some weak side blocks. I have my doubts as to if the blocks will actually translate to quite that much of a degree. Average two per game in the NCAA, which is a lot, he was to say. But the NBA moves so much more, so much faster that, you know, if you're a half second slow, then you just probably, you know, then the opponent, you're not going to get there. Put it that way. If you're just a half second too slow and Murray isn't the most explosive mover. But who knows? I mean,

the fact that he has those instincts of knowing where to be and knowing when to help and how to help. I mean, those are definitely helpful. And who knows, maybe he'll be able to parlay those into solid effectiveness as a week's that shoplocker in the NBA, too. Yeah. And I think that the one, he actually is able to get a nice deal and get that like pick six going. I think that that's where you really get a lot of value from him is, and I can see why he was maybe coached that way to do it a lot, is because, okay, get up in transition, deny the two points one way, you know, hopefully you get two points the other way, maybe even three if they follow you.

Like that another thing is that he doesn't get fouled a lot on defense. He doesn't follow very much, yeah. Yeah, definitely two fouls per game, playing as many minutes as he does. Yeah, that's impressive. Yeah, totally. Yeah, it might not, you know, who knows how that will project. it's more difficult not to follow in the NBA, but it's definitely a good sign. It's definitely a very good sign when a player plays committed, very hardworking and fairly physical defense without

following. I mean, that's absolutely a good sign. But all of this, just talking about his work ethic and his mentality and his basketball IQ just comes back to what I think links that a lot of this together is just that, yeah, smart player makes the right decisions, not selfish at all, never gives up on a play, never takes a play off. has got some leadership quality to him and just the consummate team player, which, which is, these are just great qualities to have for obvious reasons, both in the individual and the team context. Yeah.

No, that's his big skill. If anything could be his big skill, it's, it's his work ethic. Yeah. Well, I mean, you've got to have more on top of that, of course. But, yeah, this is it, it finds those qualities of just, of just good IQ and unselfishness and an excellent work ethic and motor, they find their way into everything. So, yeah. So, of course, you know, we wouldn't be talking, you know, it's like, you know,

you might be thinking, well, well, it sounds like Kagan Murray is, you know, just a great prospect. Obviously, he has his minuses. Otherwise, he would not be quite so controversial prospect, a controversial prospect to us or to anybody else. So let's get right into those. I think that's the number one is questionable potential as a Korean. This is the number of five overall pick. This team really, really still needs talent. You need to have guys who can create offense.

It's not just going to be the cage show. You need more than that. Needed a lot of talent to compete. You need guys who can go out and get a bucket in the postseason. And post-offense was the bread and butter for Keegan at Iowa. Deeply unlikely to translate. And the guy has his struggles as he was dreadful at attacking the basket from the perimeter or gaining penetration at Iowa.

So the question is, and shot creation. Very few guys are able shot creators in the NBA on mid-range pull-ups. There were nine last season who shots, you know, who reached good efficiency on more than three attempts per game. So the question is, like, can he be a creator in the half court? So, yeah, do you see similar, like the similar concerns about him in terms of half-court creation in the NBA? You know, I share a lot of your concerns. And I think it comes, you know, almost directly to his handle, because again, he's not a guy who's going to be beating you with like a good first step. Like Jay Nivey, who elite first step, for instance,

they're not even in the same planet or hemisphere or what have you in terms of that skill. However, you can make up for that by having a really good handle and just a really good feel for when to get guys off balance and then using transitioning that off balance into a shot attempt at like a reasonable, at least at a reasonable look. He can make contested shots. I like his confidence on stepbacks.

Maybe you can hopefully transition that into actually penetrating into the paint. If he can penetrate the paint, then we actually have, we might actually have something here. but yeah the issue is is of course going to be the ability to actually attack the basket that's that's his main thing with is created for himself yeah 100% yeah and i mean i should just i feel like it cannot be reiterated enough at this point i mean he this is a guy who's probably a national player the year and scored a lot of points he was dreadful at attacking from the perimeter, like legitimately dreadful. Like Price and I both watch a ton of tape, like about all there is to see. And anybody who wants to watch, you know, who wants a good source of tape on any prospect,

there's this YouTube channel cut the scouting rapport, R-A-P-P-O-R-T. And their highlight videos include literally all of the players' highlights, you know, rebounds, assists, made baskets, missed baskets and whatnot. Watch through all of it you can and see how many times you saw Kiki-Murray actually penetrate from the perimeter to the interior versus the number of times you got stopped or traveled or gave up the ball or whatever else. You had a, really hard time getting past anybody in the NCAA. There's that combination of bad first step of the ball, not the greatest body control, in my opinion, off the drive, and also just his handle is awful. So that's a huge gap if you can't penetrate. I mean, that's not only just how important it is

just to put defenses off balance. I mean, just gaining penetration of its own accord is very nice. You know, if you can take it to the basket and score, then great. But so your question is, you know, is Keegan ever going to be able to do that? So, yeah, I agree he's smart and he's strong. If the handle comes along. Cool, if not, I don't really know what we're looking at. And I think this is like the number one swing thing. This is the swing ability for Keegan Murray that's going to determine.

Is he a role player or is he actually going to be a good player who's worthy of being drafted at number five? Yeah, exactly. I couldn't have said it better myself. like it'll be the litmus test for him is when he's 24, 25, 27, like in his prime, is he going to be anything more than just a guy who's really good at like catching boards and catching shots on the perimeter? Yeah. And I think like there has been a Tobias Harris comp that I've seen many times.

This, I believe, came from San Bacini, who's the chief draft guy for the athletic. I like Sam. He's, you know, I think he's one of the best draft analysts out there. And I definitely, I don't, I tend to do very, very, very detailed research. I sometimes do not get into the second round and he's the guy I'll look to for that analysis. If that, if I don't. And, but I don't agree with that comp. Like, Tobias Harris is, like, one of his, his biggest assets is he's got a great first step.

And he's very fluid and agile with the ball. He's got a pretty darn good handle. And he blitzes in, beats bigger guys, especially, and finishes above the rim. Keegan can't do that. If he doesn't have that first step, he doesn't have the handle. So he's also not the pure shooter. Like Tobias, during his better seasons, it's been a pretty darn good mid-range shooter, too.

So, yeah, so it's that question, can he create? I mean, that's like the real big thing. Like, if we thought, if he had an off-the-dribble, strong-off-the-dribble game at the NCAA, I mean, I wouldn't have any qualms about taking him at five, would you? No, no. He probably wouldn't even make it to five. Yeah, I agree. Yeah, he'd be four at the worst.

At the very worst, yeah, because I think there is, like, real concern with Ivy's, like, overall game that, like, if Kagan was, like, just so projectable as a second option that he'd probably beat out Ivy. Yeah, I'd say that's entirely possible. Yeah, if you had a guy who, you know, had his character qualities, who had his shooting, and who, yeah, who just had all the qualities he has right now when you add the ability to attack off the dribble. Yeah, I mean, 22 or not, nobody cares in a draft as weak as this. Absolutely, I'd say top four. Yeah, no, he'd push in for sure. Yeah.

And, yeah, that's just the big thing. I mean, in my opinion, for all anybody wants to say, okay, you know, Kegan Murray always too old or whatever other shortcomings, you know, that you can reasonably reasonably bring up. If you were a strong creator, I don't think there would be any, you know, there would be no question. Okay, this is a good pick and this is a guy who could be a strong score in the NBA. Like all of the other things we're going to talk about in terms of shortcomings. And there aren't many. It's like, this is, in my opinion, just the one. Yes.

So, yeah, so there's that. And it's like, and we'll talk a little bit later about how he might be able to bring it together. But just moving on to another weakness. And this is, you know, this is part of why he has trouble with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, is just his F-guard athleticism is not very good. He talked about the handle, but just his first step with the ball is bad. He's not an explosive player on the ball, even off the ball. And not a very good top speed either with the ball.

No. I mean, that's part of like the handle. Like if you don't have the ball under control, then you just simply are going to lose it like very realistically. Yeah. That's good point. Yeah, it's tough. I feel like when you see him run in, I mean, the moment he takes first contact, he really slows down. Yeah.

Yeah, that's because of the handle. But even off the ball, I mean, the guy's not really an explosive off ball mover by any means in the half court. He's not the greatest leper. Can catch some loves, but not really a vertical spacer. And it's just sort of in the nice to have the ability to just explosively attack the basket or really or whatever. But, you know, again, yeah, if you just had that handle, I think he'd be a good portion of the way there. How do you feel about his half court switchability on defense? that is i think another uh area of improvement for keegan is um i think that there is upside there

not to necessarily be like a true like lockdown point of the tack guy against like your very best scores um especially in like a postseason context but um what i would like to see improved is like less of uh kind of like the gambling style um he can get he can definitely buy in or buy those shot fakes a lot and get put out of position. He will gamble lanes all the time, or not all the time, but like a lot. And that is something you don't like to see, especially with the guy without like the athleticism to like really recover in those situations. And he is just generally weak against like guards, which, on to him they can actually pretty reliably get around him and um even if he he can stay like

disciplined in that situation uh it still won't necessarily lead to him like stopping uh a player faster than him yeah yeah he's got so i like to compare him a little bit to sadik bay in the situation sedique is actually like he's he's by no means the most athletic player either i mean is a below average NBA half court athlete. On defense, he handles switch as well because he moves his feet very quickly. He takes small short step, he takes, excuse me, fast short steps, which is great because it just allows you to more easily consistently maintain the right position. Kegan takes much longer, much slower steps. And that's not real. This isn't really, this is more physical rather than something you can be taught. So he's definitely the smarts are there. And he, you know,

he can move his feet to a degree. I do worry about him getting targeted on switches. I don't think he'll be a liability, but in the NBA, I mean, you see the success that has been found by the Celtics, for example, and just having a team full of guys who can effectively switch.

And my concern is that you kind of take away from that if you're fielding Keegan Murray in the postseason. Maybe he could surprise us, but it's just a question of foot speed. So do you think he's going to be a liability or just not very good? I think that it, I could see him being like an average point of the tack guy if some of that risky style of play gets kind of cut out. And if he learns, as you said, to like really stay in the right position because that's going to be what carries him to an actual high level success on defense. I don't think he'll ever be like a real good stopper. But, I think he could exist in a playoff as the non-weakest link as maybe your third, fourth best defender, and that will keep him on the floor.

Yeah, that's fair. I mean, yeah, I do just, I definitely worry about the explosive guards because, you know, who just, who have that explosive first step. And his first step is long and slow. So who knows, maybe it can be coached a little bit, but I don't know. I just, I have these, I guess I've got like this, this fantasy. vision of the team as being able to field, you know, five strong switch defenders in the starting lineup. And it's kind of like, don't take my dream away from me.

Yeah. And I don't think that Keegan's going to be bad. I don't think he's going to be like, like you mentioned, it absolutely agree that teams will just mercilessly target any weakness they can find on either end in the postseason. That would be like my worry to compare another guy we've talked a lot about with Ivy. that I think there's real risk that he's huntable on defense. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't think Murray will be huntable.

I just question if he's actually going to be legitimately good at it's to the point where, you know, you just love to be able to feel that really strong postseason switching defense. So the final potential minus you could say about Keegan is his age. Now, I don't think it's inherently a minus. Like, you know, it's basically when you're talking about age, it's, I think largely just, you know, how much more upside does this guy reasonably have to develop? And, you know, if you feel like he's still got room to improve that that's not a factor, then really the only downside of age is that the player is going to have a shorter prime.

You know, he's coming into the league. He's going to be starting at 22 versus 19 for the average one and done. So that's two and a half, three years less prime that you have to keep him on the team. Like at the end of his second contract, if he's still with the pistons, he'd be 31. So that's a factor. Yeah, I mean, the one thing that at the very least, what you get is it's very possible for teams to keep their talent, like first round talent, for like nine years, at least seven, is pretty reasonable. And yeah, so I'm not super worried about the age.

He's late bloomer. He and his twin both grew almost a foot in high school. and kind of like that classic story of like, okay, they grew up playing like one, two, and three. And then boom, they shot up and they became like a more skilled like four, five even like Yokic is the extreme outlier of that. Well, Anthony Davis did it too. Went from point guard to center in high school. Yeah. Yeah, AD did it too.

Exactly. I'm not saying at all that he's in that realm. But what I am going to say is that like he, you know, took some time. went to prep school, played behind Luca Garzilla in Iowa last year. So his trajectory is pretty upward that maybe his body is finally catching up to where it should be because he is a little older. He is going to be 22. It's not crazy old. It's not like Duarte.

Yeah, Duarte was 24. Is he 24? Yeah, I think he was 24 when he started playing. Like he entered. Pam Johnson was about that age. Yes. Yes. where it's like, or Obitopin, just getting to the NBA and you're basically done developing.

I don't think it's quite to that level. And part of my optimism is that maybe some of the coordination issues that we've talked about with the handle in particular might be kind of ironed out to at least a acceptable degree for a fifth overall pick by the time he's in his prime, which is still a ways away. He's still very young. Yeah, so I think that this is actually a great place to transition to really our questions about, about Kiggen-Marie. And one of those that's the primary question is how much can he improve? Like, you know, can he reasonably improve in the important areas and in how much can he improve?

And if you feel like he's just really a late bloomer, and I think he definitely make that argument for him. I mean, he came into his size late. He came into improvement late. and the reason that he's almost 22 after having played only two years is because he went to prep school before he went to college. I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, that they didn't really get any offers out of high school. No, no, they didn't. They didn't get any D1 offers. Yeah.

So definitely dramatic improvement. And, you know, maybe some cause for optimism in that, okay. And maybe, I don't know how likely this is because, you know, the guy was developed enough to be one of the best players in D1 basketball. but, you know, does he still maybe have sort of a case of the lankies, so to speak, which I think is a term I invented of a thin air, maybe not, whatever, basically just that is not fully, still not fully coordinated within his body. And if that's, you know, if that's the case, and maybe that's the case, then there's more cause for optimism in terms of his handle and his on-ball agility,

because he does have the sort of clumsy vibe at this point when he's trying to drive. But some players are just clumsy, period. Yeah. So maybe that's a hope. So you could see it in that situation. You think that maybe there's significant room for improvement with his handle. And in that case, you can say, okay, maybe this guy can develop into the ability to attack off the dribble. Exactly.

I think that I kind of lean that way. Maybe this is partially like preemptive copium for when he's the pick at five based off of just how reporting and just talk around the fifth. overall pick has kind of trended. He's definitely been the pick that is most projected to us at 5. And what I perceive is his ultimate ceiling is contingent on the handle. And if the handle is able to progress significantly enough, then he'll be worth his pick. I'm less worried about the passing. I think that that is something that he's already fine at doing. He's not exceptional at it.

But once that comes along with the handle, I should say, you might be looking at a guy who is worthy of that high of a pick. Yeah. Yeah, the passing, which, yeah, I don't think we got into that and the downsides. We just don't know about Keegan's passing. He wasn't really asked to play within the flow of the offense at Iowa. Basically, his participation in the flow of the offense and the half court was either get open for a three or we'll give you the ball in the post. He wasn't really required to make system passes, so to speak.

They were generally just very easy passes. That's part of the reason why he had such a low turnover rate. He was not driving into the interior, which is much higher turnover territory. He wasn't making passes off the run, which is much higher turnover territory. And instead, he was just making very easy passes and attempting low turnover. forms of offense. But, you know, and who knows, maybe he's a better passers than he showed because he just wasn't asked to pass. Yeah. Good point. His usage percentage to this is Titanic. The ratio of that is Titanic, which is huge. So maybe he's a decent passer. But I agree.

If his handle comes along and he's a decent passer, then, you know, great. You can penetrate. You can make passes off the dribble. You get three-point shooter. You can contribute spot offense elsewhere. You're smart. You're not hesitant to put in the work. You know, Cool. Maybe you got a third option on a good team. But it's the likelihood of if the handle is going to come along. I mean, I don't want to put you on the spot here. But, you know, if you're going to give a no BS assessment, what do you think the likelihood is? You know, what are the odds you to weigh on his handle improving enough?

I'll take a coin flip. Oh, really, that much. Yeah, yeah. I don't know if I should hedge and say not to the level of being like a Paul George sort of like meteoric rise in terms of. of his handle development. But at least to get to that level, I feel pretty good about it. Yeah, that's optimistic. And who knows?

I would rate it a little bit less just because, I mean, it would be an unusual outcome. And I'm not, my inclination is to not bank on unusual outcomes. It's when it comes to, I mean, it's funny to say this. I'm not the one making the decision. But if I were making the decision, that's just, that's a sort of risky decision that it's like you just don't have that much of a precedent of somebody improving their handle that much. But it does, it has happened. So, but I totally agree.

If you can do that, then cool, you might have a much better NBA player. If his handle remains so poor that he, and just is, just overall remains very disadvantaged and attacking against what's going to be much better opposition than he faced in the NCAA, then I just don't see it as a creator barring that very, very unlikely chance that becomes a good shock creator, because hardly anybody does. Real quick, a message from our. sponsor. Draft Kings. Are you ready for the NBA chance to be crowned? Join the finals action with Draft King SportsBet and official sports betting partner of the NBA. New customers can make

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You know, age and eligibility restrictions applies. He's show notes for details. So, you know, beyond that, beyond just the handle and maybe just growing into further coordination in his body in general. Yeah, I don't know if there's really much, we can look at Keegan Murray and say that he's really going to, has the potential to improve a great deal. And just with the provisor, again, if he can improve that, then maybe you've got. you know, legitimately good number three option on a contender. I'd say that that's the ceiling. Like maybe on defense, just improve. I mean, you're going to see him try to adapt to switching better at the NBA level. But this is kind of like one thing where I don't know if it's his age,

but yeah, I feel like there's also just the fact that he's solid in a lot of ways and that a lot of the ways in which he has not solid of the result of just athleticism, just physical components that can't really be altered. Yeah, exactly. Barring a massive. increase in athleticism due to him being truly like this late bloomer and his athletic ceiling is actually

much further or much higher rather than we're giving him credit for which is massively unlikely yeah I mean it's not technically impossible it's just something that is even more unlikely than like a dramatic

improvement in his handle or dramatic improvement in other areas Yeah, realistically, the defense probably gets better with like a less dominant role in the offense just due to like just a same argument that I've made in the past with like Mathrin is that like less like usage even if it's like off ball usage and he's just like less of a core component of a NBA offense might allow some of the defensive consistency issues that. that he gets with like his maybe overly aggressive play at times. And not in terms of fouling, but in just terms of getting out of position might like improve. And maybe that's just a coaching thing. And who knows?

I think that that's like pretty realistic, just being just better on switches, being more disciplined when he's up against quicker guards. And just keeping more active feet. That might be like a little area improvement that like could could go a decent way to ironing out some of the concerns we've raised but again I think his swing skill is the is the handle to be able to create penetration yeah definitely swing skill absolutely agree so why do we move on to what it's fit with the pistons might

be so of course it's a team being built around kade and and I guess all of just basically the fit is absolutely going to depend on, you know, how he develops because you see like his, his worst outcome where his handle never improves or whatever the case, he's just not able to create offense for himself. But in that case, is not a good floor outcome, in my opinion, because then you've got a great deal of overlap, I would say, between he and Sadiq Bay. I mean, not only that, you've got, you've got one forward who is sort of a low average NBA athletes and another one who's average of best as an NBA athletes, and they're both occupying the same niche of, you know,

we're just going to get open for threes. We're going to do some work in the interior using strength, and you've got a lot of overlap there. You know, you can't really have two guys who are just really going to be getting most of their offense by getting open for threes. I mean, you don't, you want to have more shooters, but you've got kind of less value out of both of them,

and you've got both of them having identical weaknesses. Yeah, it's this really interesting situation where Keegan is a high floor prospect with some degree of risk for pistons at five. It's almost as if we had fallen to six or seven in the draft, then actually Keegan's a little more understandable just due to how likelihood of success tends to decrease rapidly the lower you pick. and so pardon me

that there is a lot of risk drafting Kagan at 5 due to as you said like the low end outcome actually means that he kind of competes directly with Sadiq Bay and maybe that would force

one of them to go to the bench which I don't exactly love that idea or more likely one would be traded for the other depending on how it all shakes out in three, four, however many years. It is good to get another shooter in the building, which I mean, at least initially,

is going to be fine because just getting another guy who can rotate in and provide spacing for us would be huge. And then you look at the potential of how he would lead to like a Jeremy Grant trade because I don't think you're drafting a power forward at fifth overall and keeping Jeremy Grant on the roster. I just don't think that that even more than the overlap with Bay, which is very real, at least initially, the positional, because both guys are like kind of strictly

fours in the modern NBA, you'll, you'll have to move grant. So for some people, that might be a huge plus, but that would, of course, then necessitate, like, further recontextualization of the team based off of what that trade looks like, which I'm sure you'll get into with potential fits for different draft picks that might become available for us or different players, etc. So it gets hard to really answer that question if we're actually drafting Keegan, if that makes sense because it probably means another big means coming along. Yeah, I mean, it's just it's not,

here's something I think is worth saying. And obviously this, you know, this is me stating the obvious here, is that it wouldn't, like unless Keegan comes in and develops himself into like a decent creator off the dribble, then it's not a one-to-one trade. I mean, Jeremy Grant is a guy

who can absolutely create off the dribble. Yep. And I don't necessarily agree that he's strictly a four. I think he's better at that position just because he's going to be, faster than the average power forward and can can more able to beat them off the dribble. But yeah, definitely not a one to one trade. I mean, Jeremy is a capable creator.

This is one of the reasons. You know, it's a reason why he's such a sought after player in the trade market. So, you know, if Keegan comes in and he can't create, again, you've got that overlap with Bay. You've got to find that creation somewhere else in the lineup too. So, I mean, like we've said, you know, on the last episode, I would discuss this. I mean, they only knock against Jeremy his timeline. If you were two, if you're three, even two years younger, I don't think this would even be a discussion of trading him. So, but yeah, I mean, if you draft Murray and you're not trading Grant, that's a, that's a disappointing outcome.

I mean, not ideal. I don't think it's out of the question that Murray would just come in and play from the bench. But barring that, yeah, your lower-end outcome when you have a lot of overlap between Kagan and Kegan and Sadiq. And, you know, you're kicking one of them to the bench for the sake of a player who isn't, you know, it's not like, oh, well, you play the better player. It's like, okay, then you're kicking Sadiq to the bench for the sake of a guy who isn't a very strong player. So, yeah, that's definitely a risk. I mean, I think his only good fit with the Pistons is if he, especially at five, as if he develops into that decent creator of which point,

cool, you give him more of that role on the offense and he's not just basically playing Bay's role. Yeah. So that's where it's tough to peg a fit because, you know, at his floor, yeah, I agree. At this floor, it's not only that you're just drafting a role player, it's that you've got, as that Bay projects is a fixture in the starting lineup. And you've got guys who are overlapping and making each other less valuable. And so it's a distance.

disappointment of a pick in two different ways. Yeah. So that is a risky outcome. And another one, I've really badgered on a ton about athleticism. Like Cade and Bay, both below average NBA athletes, athleticism is a great quality to have. You don't need it, but it's a great quality to have. You do not want to be weak in it on a lineup wide level. And Keegan's like average at best as a half-court athlete. So he's not a minus athlete, but he's average at best. So not really what you'd like to have in that capacity either. I know this is along the same lines, but, you know, he's been linked to the business for a long time.

What is it if you think you're Troy or Troy Weaver, you know, what is it you really, though it's not only Troy in the front office. So we'll just go with what if you're the front office, what is it you think that they really see in Keegan that makes them think he might be the guy number five. I think that if they, and they could be wrong in this, but if they see him as like the pick at five based off how the board. falls, then they're seeing that the coordination is actually got a lot of room for improvement and that they think that they can mold him into that like second or third option, more likely

third option on a good team with Cade. And then you can slot in like athletes and shooters like kind of around them. Yeah, two and five. Yep. Yeah. Yeah, I've got it. I mean, this is just, there's no getting ahead of anybody. I mean, in terms of what qualities they value more, do they value certain qualities too much, whatever else.

I mean, I've got to think that if he's taken at five, it's because they think that he has upset as a creator. Yeah. I just, you know, no, it's front offices. Nobody's infallible. I'm not going to give Troy Weaver the benefit of the doubt until the pistons are contenders. Mistakes can be made. He's not perfect. He did get very lucky in being able to draft Cade.

And so, you know, we'll see. it's not there are very very very very very few executives or coaches or even players i'm willing to look at and just give the benefit of the doubt and say these people are going to make the right decisions and i might not see it but it's probably the right decision anyway i don't think troy weaver has gotten anywhere near that level yet so who knows but but uh yeah i've got to think that i would hope that they would not be drafting him at number five that he would not even be really being being considered if they did not think of highly of his upside as a creator or at least moderately well yeah yeah this just just

brings it back. I used to watch a lot more hockey than basketball. And Robin's had a lot of good players, but there was only one player ever in hockey I looked at and I was like, okay, I might think he's doing the wrong thing, but I'm just going to get the benefit out and say he's doing the right thing. And that was Nicholas Lidstrom, who is like one of the all-time hockey geniuses. And it's like, okay, I might not agree, but this is like the guy I'll say, like, okay, well, I'm confident he made the right decision even if I didn't see it. Because he never made mistakes. I saw him make one mistake. Yeah, it was once in a blue moon. Oh, yeah. I saw him make one mistake ever. It was in his, the preseason prior to his final season. And I was like, what on earth just happened there?

Because that was definitely a mistake. That's just a mark of how amazing he was at the game of hockey. Yep. Yeah. All right. So I think we've gone in depth pretty well on Kegan. And I think it basically, for the both of us boils down to if he's taken at five and he develops into you know, develops a good off the dribble game or who knows maybe even a good shot creation game, again, very unlikely. He's a good pick and if he doesn't, he's a bad pick. Yeah, pretty much sum it up. Yeah, it would be a disappointing outcome at five if he can't get there as a creator on some level. Yeah, and you'd be taking him over guys who might have more upside. I'd say it wouldn't be a bad pick, but it would be a disappointing pick.

Yeah, I don't think, yeah, I don't think it's necessarily. quite that black and white because because I think that he is going to play in the NBA for a while. I agree. And so it's not like it's a complete bust where it's like, oh, he Jamarcus wrestled himself out of the league. Oh, that guy. Yeah. That's an extreme example in a different sport. Yeah, the NFL, yeah.

NFL, right. But I still like to think that at least Keegan is going to contribute on NBA team. for a decade plus, and that's not a failure, but it might be disappointing. Yeah, I'd say at this stage of the rebuild, there'd be a particular disappointment, too, with the Pistons probably, hopefully, like, unless a lot goes wrong with developments heading out of the lottery in the not-so-distant future. And you're going to have to hit on a good pick somewhere else, probably. But it would be a disappointing outcome at this stage.

So, yeah, I'll revise what I said. I agree. Do you put it better? Not a bad pick. If he doesn't develop that aspect of his game. game, but definitely deflating and disappointing, no doubt about it. Yeah. All right. So with that, let's move on to some listener submitted questions. So the first one we got about Mark Williams, how would you feel if the business got another lottery pick, Jeremy and the Jeremy Grandtray

with drafting Mark Williams, Mark Williams, seven-footish center out of Duke. Just give a quick profile. Williams, pretty traditional rim running big, excellent wingspan. I think it's like 7-7, a tremendous standing reach. He is pretty darned athletic too. Excellent Leeper dunks everything. Strong role man. Very strong interior score on offense that's created for him. But like other traditional bigs,

does not have much of the ability to generate anything. And just some questions about his defensive IQ to a bit. It might just be wrongest though. So, yeah, what, I mean, and I guess, like, let's assume, because I don't think the pistons are going to pick him at seven. Like, let's assume the pistons get, like, number 10, or whatever else, even if the Pissons get like number 12. What would your thoughts about Mark Williams be at that point?

Yeah, obviously that's in a presumed like Jeremy Grant trade. Yeah, I don't think he'd be the target at seven. But I think that you said it pretty well. You gave the boilerplate version of Mark Williams. Just I love him. He plays nice basketball, tremendous standing reach. I think it's one of the best ever. that's been measured. I think it's like almost 10 feet, which is going to be very advantageous

for him in the NBA. However, again, there isn't a ton of like offense that he is able to really provide other than pick and roll guy. I do think his upside is higher on offense than defense weirdly, even if he'll probably be a really good like weak side blocker. I do sometimes worry about like the IQ relative to other potential bigs. Yeah. As like a real true, like a rim protector. Yeah, I think you summed it up well. Yeah, I think my question about him, and this is becoming an all-important skill of switch defense,

I think that there are very few bigs who can, you know, especially guys his size, who can get down into a low position and guard on switches and move their feet. So if you can basically do all of the above, just be a good. good rim runner and scored, you know, and just beat a real great vertical spacer and score a lot of points on offense created for you by others and be decent rim protector. Then if you're going to have a good switch defense to that, then you can play, you can be a good low cost center on any postseason team. But I don't think Williams is going to be quite that strong as a switch defender. He might not be bad, but you really want to be, if you're not like genuinely good at it in the playoffs, then you'd

better be a strong score on the other end if you're going to be worthwhile presence at center and not be like a guy who just plays like 18 minutes. So I think he'd be a really good regular season team for a regular season center for a team like the Hornets, just a guy who's who's going to be a solid, low-cost, well-usage center for a team that just doesn't require much out of them. So for the Pistons, they're not at that point. I don't think, and you can find these centers later. It's the position in which you can most easily find guys later.

Yeah. So, yeah, I probably would say, no, I'd rather have that pick go to, go to a perimeter player even if it's like even if it's number 12 and if it's number seven if the pisses are taking a center I'd have it be jalen durran who I think has much higher potential yeah I mean the the stuff that's coming out about durin with the uh the athletic gifts that he has in terms of size quickness length and also maybe actually pretty good offensive IQ in like like a limited use role um as a passer maybe and then kind of of building out from there super young probably going to be one of the youngest players in the league

next year i think he just turned 18 like he reclassified he'll be 18 and a half i believe 18 and a half i mean i can i've got uh i've got this this giant list of uh player profiles i made in front of me so uh yeah durin will be 18 and a half at the draft so he won't be 19 yet when he plays his first NBA again yeah very young and yeah i i totally think that durin is kind of a more pricing prospect. He probably doesn't make it to 10 if I had to put money on it. I think the spurs are, that would be like a home run pick for them. Yeah, or the Blazers if they keep their pick.

Oh, yeah, yeah, exactly. If they don't trade for Grant or O.G. Anobie. Oh, yeah. I have my doubts as if he was, he was even on the market in the first place. I doubt he is. Oh, yeah. I mean, the Raptors would be fools to move him for anything less than a superstar. Yeah.

Yeah, so I would say, yeah, about Williams. like he does have very, very impressive measurements. Like the guy, yeah, 9 foot 9 standing reach, 7.6.5 wing span. He's 240 pounds at 5.5% body fat. I mean, these are all impressive. But it comes into context. It's just like the value that you're going to get from him versus, you know, versus what you can get.

It's just the switch defense. If you're a strong switch defender, it's like absolutely take him. If you're a strong switch defender with those measurements, also you'd be well within the top 10. So I wouldn't say he'd be much of a priority. for the pistons in there at this point. Number two, does how Kavall Muni has played for the Warriors and the playoffs give you any more hope for Stewart? I mean, yeah, we've got some big Stewart fans around. I would say, I'll just stack with this one if you don't mind.

Nope. So Looney is in a special situation. You will not find a team, like in terms of teams you can go to as a center and do a good job, like in a championship team and have the fewest possible. responsibilities you possibly can have. That's the Warriors. So Looney isn't super athletic. He's not a vertical spacer. And he basically, if you put Stewart on the Warriors, I think you win a championship with him at center. Luni, like that may knock about, it may knock against Stewart is that he can't play in the pick and roll. And that's an issue for most teams. That's an issue for Kate, absolutely,

who runs, who just who makes his living in a high pick and roll. The Warriors do not run the big and rule. Aside from that season in which Curry and Thompson were both injured, they have, I think, in every single season since Steve Kurt took over been the lowest volume pick and roll team in the entire league. You don't need to run the pick and roll with Steph Curry. They do not run a, they do not run the pick and roll very often. They just, they run with a ton of switches and perimeter shooting and et cetera, et cetera. So Kavanaulunis, his athletic shortcomings don't matter. He can switch. He can rebound well. He can score a fairly high percentage in the paints and he can make passes. And that's good. And if Stewart and on the Warriors, it'd be fine. If Lou anywhere on the pistons,

you would not. So my answer there is no. I agree. Stewart has to really develop as a shooter, I think, before we can even consider him as a viable playoff rotation, like, mashup center. Yeah, I mean, yeah, the shots, I think will go a long way toward making him a valuable bench player. I think he could still be, yeah, and it's just in the playoffs, even coming off the bench, I mean, with a team like the Pistons who are still wants to run. We've still going to win.

You're just going to have to continue running the pig and roll in the playoffs. off through the Pistons of your most teams. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe he's a guy who could be a rotation player right now in the playoffs even without a shot. But, yeah, I don't think even becoming a real knockdown shooter is going to keep him on, is going to make him a viable starting center in the playoffs. He didn't necessarily in the regular season unless he's got a role man next to him a power forward and those are hard to find.

So, but yeah, put him on the Warriors. Absolutely. Could be a starting center for a championship team. Yeah, strong switcher, strong overall defender. That's, that's funny. Yeah, Stuart would probably do really, well on the Warriors. Yeah. It's just the Warriors is such a special case, such an unusual case. I mean, I think if you, anybody who brings up to Warriors in any situation, I don't think

they're much of a comparable. They're inherently an exception. So I think that they're not really, I don't think they're an applicable example in the majority of cases when you're talking about how to build a team and how to run a team and how to coach a team. They're just, they're so exceptional in so many ways. All right. So that'll be it for this episode. Thanks. Thanks again, Price for guesting us. If you want to follow us on Twitter, we're at To the BasketPod, that's T-O, not the number two. As always, thank you for listening. Catch you in the next episode.