Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 102: 2022 NBA Draft Prospect Shorts - Jalen Duren and Mark Williams

Episode Date: June 19, 2022

This episode, the first of a planned series of draft prospect shorts (derailed by a case of COVID) leading up to Draft day, takes a look at Jalen Duren and Mark Williams. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit http://ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/ /NJ/NY/ PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Min. $5 deposit required. Eligibility restrictions apply. See http://draftkings.com/sportsbook for details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Drive into the Basket, part of the Basketball Podcast Network. I am Mike coming out here today with a solo episode and a couple of draft prospects. Today we're going to be doing J-1 Duren and Mark Williams. As I said in my last episode, I had actually planned for this to be a more drawn-out series. Unfortunately, the day after I posted my last episode, I came down with COVID. You might still be able to hear it in my voice. It's fortunately not too bad of a case, but definitely had me down for the count for a few days there. So about these prospect previews, they're meant to be against the possibility that the Pistons make a Jeremy Grant trade and come into another pick in the lottery. Really hard to know what the Pistons could get in that trade.

Grant is a sought-after commodity, but it's just really hard to say, and there's the possibility as well that he won't be traded at all. But it seems a fair chance that he will be, so we're going to look at some of the prospects at whom the Pistons could be interested in, should that be the case. I won't be going over Shaden Sharp. So I know Sharp is a prospect of interest to a lot of people, fans of a lot of teams. However, I don't like to do, let's put it this way, there is nowhere near enough information for me to actually get an accurate picture of Shaden Sharp. We don't really have much tape.

I mean, sample size isn't large, and what we have is against high school opposition. And the NCAA is like a quantum leap above high school. in terms of quality of competition. And the NBA is a quantum leap above the NCAA. So I just don't feel like I have the data to get an accurate picture. All right. All that said, let's move on to Jalen Duren, who was actually a fairly nuanced prospect.

Now, the reason that I chose Duren and Williams is not only because they're both guys who could potentially be of interest at the Pistons, I think Duren considerably more than Williams, but also because I think that the contrast between them really illustrates some of the evolution of the NBA in terms of what's become important, particularly for traditional bigs. That is, guys who can't really create offense for themselves, can't shoot and really depend a lot on their teammates to do it for them, to create offense for them, rather, create good looks for them. So Duren, I would say, definitely the more interesting of the two where the pistons are concerned. And so let's talk about him first. So Duren, six foot 11, though realistically, I'd say he

looks closer to 6'5-11 in shoes. Wingspan reportedly around 7.5, which is excellent. It gives him a great catch radius. Just excellent standing reach. He's a chiseled 250 pounds, and he's going to be about 18 and a half at the draft, which I believe makes him the youngest player in his draft class. So Duren actually was initially, originally going to be a high school senior in this past NCAA season, but took some college course work in order to get. get his transcript in the proper standing to apply for university and ended up just going straight to Memphis instead. Hence why he's so young. So as far as his performance at Memphis, it averaged 12 points per game, eight rebounds, one assist, about one steal, two blocks,

two turnovers, and close to three fouls in about 25 minutes per game. On about 72% true shooting, excuse me, it's 61% true shooting. And a lot of that brought about by dunks, really. Had a lot of those, didn't do quite as well on wayups, unfortunately. Only about 53%. And only 62.5% from the line. So it's a guy who pretty much just creates around the basket. On way ups, dunks, alley-oops, putbacks, tips, that sort of thing,

was, I would say, pretty misused at Memphis. Penny Hardaway, I just don't think is a very good coach. You know, that's a different conversation, but Durham was used a lot in the post where he's not really all that good. And, yeah, I just don't think he was used in a way that really allowed him to properly shine. That said, he definitely has certain weaknesses. But let's start out with the pluses here. So Duren, definitely a good athlete, absolutely has an NBA-ready body.

Like I said, long wingspan, 7-5, very strong. he's a good leaper. He's mobile. He moves his feet well. He's agile. Runs the floor well. So definitely a plus for the NBA. Has upside absolutely as...

Well, actually, we'll get to offense next. Because defense is really where it's at for Duren. This is where he's going to make his money, I believe. So we all saw and, I mean, we all knew, but certainly this postseason was a very, very emblematic of how important switch. ability is for centers in today's league. You have also, you know, along those same lines, how much not being able to switch in the postseason hurts. Like you have Rudy Gobert, who is an absolutely

game-changing interior defender, like one of the best of all time, but is not a very good perimeter defender. So what teams do to him is they just draw him out to the perimeter and attack him there. And that way, not only are they going to have a fair shot at beating him, because he's more of just kind of like a decent switch defender versus like an incredible interior defender, but also because if he's forced to defend out in a perimeter, he's not in the interior to help. But in it, so yeah, that that basically significantly reduces his defensive value. And also there's no way that Gober who has no agency on offense is going to earn it back in the other end, regardless of what anybody thinks of how Quinn Snyder used him in the postseason. So, and I don't think Quinn Snyder

used him well in the postseason at all in offense, but nonetheless. So it's very, very, very nice just for all purposes, also because teams will relentlessly on switches in the postseason and attack any weakness they possibly can, no matter how minor. So we saw Boston how well they did with having five switchable players. You had Robert Williams at center, who is a very capable switch defender and also a very good interior defender. So Duren projects as possibly being able to be that sort of player. He's a strong interior defender, positions himself well, uses his length well, really keeps himself vertical, really good at blocking shots and loves to do it.

He can cover ground very quickly. You know, whether it's, you know, if somebody beats one of his teammates, he'll just fly in, can get a block that way, gets them in transition, gets them in more traditional situations. And yeah, he's just good in that capacity. He's an interior defender. He could be very good. And also, when you draw him out to the perimeter, he's a rare sort of player. who's tall but is able to drop into a low stance, move his feet well, and stay with faster players. And he's also, he's not only able to stay with them, but he's able to position himself such that

he can have a fair chance of, at the very least, contesting, if not outright, blocking any shot they take at the rim. Of course, you know, to be a good switch defender, you've got to be able to contest. But I think he could be particularly good at that. So you have a guy who could be legitimately a good, you know, high-level defender in both the interior and on switches, and that's very valuable. And it's also key for a traditional center. I don't think Durn's likely to be more than a traditional center. We'll get into that later. So in terms of blocking shots, also just an excellent weeper. That helps, you know, whether he's blocking his man or blocking somebody who's beaten one of his teammates. And yeah, so just quite good in that respect.

And that's really where I think a lot of his intriguing upside comes. So on offense, pretty much I think, well, let's talk about what he's good at. So absolutely rim rolling, I think be a strong role man in terms of, you know, he can catch wobbs off the roll. He can provide some vertical spacing. Again, this catch radius is a huge thing for that. He's also a pretty good lever. In terms of interior scoring, like he can get positioned pretty well.

So he uses his strength for that And you get him the ball He stands a fair chance of dunking it Passing upside So this is one of the more intriguing parts of him on offense He's a willing passer, he looks for it Make some good bounce passes Maybe he could do some passing out of the short roll

It could really be a swing skill for him Though doing it in the NCAA and the NBA I mean those are very different things But he's got decent vision He makes decent passes including just with one hand But lanes are a lot lanes closed very quickly in the NBA. Guys anticipate your pass is much better in the NBA,

because the quality of defenders and defenses is monumentally better than it is in the NCAA. Some guys who can do this in college, flunk at it in the NBA, and then just stop trying. Like, I think it's, this, this takes things a little bit more in an extreme direction. But you look at, there are plenty of NBA players, including centers who can, you watch them just in the gym normally and they're shooting threes and crossing guys over and whatnot. but in the NBA, it's the difference between being able to do it and it being anyone near worthwhile attempting it against the drastically better competition in the NBA.

Like you'll see videos of Mitchell Robinson absolutely crossing people over. And in the NBA, you just get the ball stolen from if you tried. So unclear if that will translate. Duren also made plenty of boneheaded passes during his time in Memphis. But if that can translate, very, very nice to have. You want as many passes as you can on the floor. And also could mitigate some of his lack of agency on offense. So another strength rebounding. He boxes out well. Very difficult to move. He's long. He's strong. He establishes his position. Good instincts, agile, tracks the ball well and it's just an aggressive rebounder. He goes hard for those. And finally, very young, which could potentially need more room for growth. I don't think he's going to be the kind of guy who grows still. You know, the men guys who come into the NBA, Janus is the most prominent example of that came.

into the NBA at about the same age and grew about two, two and a half inches. So during, given his state of physical development, especially in terms of muscular development, I don't think that's very likely. He's really grown into his body already. So it's not out of the question, but I don't think it's likely. But the youth means, you know, potentially you could say, okay, well, he has, you know, more space. I mean, he's still, he's considerably younger than other guys who in the NCAA. Maybe this means that he just isn't as far along in a skill development.

But that's not guaranteed. Youth doesn't guarantee more growth, just like with older players, they can still, surprise, they can still see significant development. It's likely, you know, it's likely with the younger players that they'll see more, but youth is not a guarantee that there's more space for progress to be made. It just makes it somewhat likelier. And that's an important thing because Duren is very raw on offense. Like, beyond the fact that he has limited offensive agency,

Mike can't create, can't handle the ball. He can't really shoot, though if he's tried, maybe there's some glimpses. Definitely can't space the floor to the three-point line. But, yeah, his instincts are not very good. He is, in terms of decision-making, particularly on shots, to just find himself in bad positions and take a bad shot that he shouldn't take, not really able to consider the defense around him

or just that it's a low-percented shot. his touch around the basket is also poor. Like, and there's no finesse. There's no elegance to it at all. He pretty much just puts it up, and it's often, if it's a way up, it's often a bad one. He's not good around the rim unless it's a dunk. And maybe he'll improve there. He might not.

The theme with Duren on offense is you really have to decide whether he's young and he's raw and he can make improvement or he's young and he's raw. And some guys just don't have the touch. And, you know, maybe it's somewhere in between. but that's the major question about him on offense. But, yeah, so poor ability to think on his feet on offense. If he gets into a difficult position, it's fairly likely he's going to turn the ball over. And because he was fairly turnover prone in college for a center.

So the thing is, when you're moving to the NBA, these things get that much more difficult. Because, again, the quality of the competition skyrockets. I mean, if he's having trouble with touch in the NCAA and having trouble with situational awareness in the NBA and making quick decisions. And again, this could just be him being raw. It's going to get a lot harder in the NBA. I mean, where things move much faster, defenses are much better, defenders are much better. So in terms of his agency, yeah, no postgame, which is fine. Very few guys have a good postgame in the NBA. But you got to question whether Duren can do it, even if it's a major mismatch. Around the rim, and this ties into his athleticism.

His athleticism around the rim is not actually explosive. He doesn't really go up full body for dunk, so to speak. He's not a great leaper off of just two feet around the basket if he's not running. So, yeah, he's not, like we'll talk about Mark Williams, who is much more of a functional dunker. But not going apart is kind of an issue, lessens your ability to, excuse me, lessens your likelihood of the shot going in, scoring through contact, bad free throw shooter, and that's a concern.

Because, you know, especially, I mean, there's a not impossible outcome, but Duran that he's a guy who just doesn't have good touch around the rim, so it doesn't score at a high percentage there, and gets fouled a lot and doesn't make his free throws. And that's not a center. He's a traditional center who can't score on good efficiency, so that's a concern. He showed some touch from mid-range on kind of short mid-jumpers, but some touch versus being efficient in the NBA, where you've got to be pretty darn good on those mid-range jumpers in order to make them efficient, and you're playing against much more difficult defenders. That's a stretch. For any player, this is unlikely.

Possible, and that would add a real dimension to his game, both on the role and in general, for providing some floor spacing. That would be huge, but the odds are against anybody, and I'm just not particularly confident in Durance touch, but who knows he could get there. But the thing is just questionable overall upside.

Even with his offensive IQ, like not being a good decision maker, that's not a good thing, and it's kind of like with Bagley on defense. Some guys, if you don't have the acumen, And it's very difficult to learn it. I mean, making split-second decisions in a very fast NBA against excellent defenders. Some guys don't have it.

But again, this is a young player. There's no way to know for sure. But that's the risk you're taking. And finally, just a couple more things, well, a few more things, prone to following on defense. And, again, that can be worked out of his game. That's just he's a young physical NCAA defender, and they're going to be followed prone. but on offense, just a passenger and a passenger in a way that could be bad in the NBA.

Like, we can talk about Robert Williams, for example, place for the Celtics, super high efficiency, interior score, vertical space, or all defense player. But on offense, when the pace really slows down and you need somebody to get a bucket, obviously he's not going to be a good option because he's a passenger.

You know, if you just need somebody to create a bucket, he can't do it, and he may actually be a minus. So that's something that could be the case with Duren, but worse. I mean, in part because he doesn't have anywhere near the touch around the basket that Robert Williams does and he may never have that touch. So that's a concern. I mean, if you can't provide value somewhere,

then in the playoffs, your opponents are just going to play well off of you and make things difficult for everybody else. So, yeah, he's got to find a way to make that work, and he may or may not have that skill. There's also the question of his motor. It's not a laziness. It's about how on offense he can just disappear. And some players, some traditional centers,

really will just work hard and do whatever they possibly can, you know, provide whatever value they possibly can just by dashing around the floor, setting off-ball screens, setting on-ball screens, mucking around the basket, whatever else in Duren doesn't really do those things now. That could change, but you always want to see a guy who's ideally who's a maniacally hard worker and as a traditional center you need to be a super hard

worker to make up for that lack of agency. Again, that's something that could change. But it's the offense. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Duren could be at below even level in the postseason in particular. So one thing I want to bring up, there's the comparison, which makes perfect sense among Pistons fans between he and Andre Drummond in terms of being very raw, very young. And maybe having some questions about motor. Duren is nowhere near as raw as Drummond was. I mean, as a defender, he's far ahead. And on offense, too, just better, I'd say, even though Ike was in question, it's better for him. He's a much better passer. He stayed in his lane at Memphis. And so, yeah, I mean, there's that concern, but I don't,

I think Duren is considerably further along than Drummond was. Also, Yeah, I mean, Drummond's concerns the draft. Does he care about basketball enough? You know, what's his motor like in general? What's the maturity level? Those all turned out to be justified. Very different concerns. Duren doesn't really have those concerns, I put it that way.

And Drummond was just extremely raw. And back then, it's like, man, a center who's really athletic and can run the floor. This will be awesome. This was in 2012. The NBA, of course, very much changed a few years later. And Drummond's potential ceiling in terms of his impact dropped dramatically. Also, he's, yeah, anybody who's, yeah, anybody who's, listen to this show for a while knows that I have a very low opinion of Drummond based almost entirely

on his mentality, which I think is just despicable. Just super selfish, not at all team first, doesn't work hard and so on and so forth. But we don't need to talk about Drummond anymore. He's long gone. And I don't think Duren has any real similarities beyond just, you know, we're drafting a traditional center who's highly athletic and fairly raw. But I don't think they're equivalent situations. So when it comes to fit with the pistons, you know, this guy could be the sound of the future in terms of his defense. Definitely a great fit for postseason basketball on defense. It's all about how useful he can make himself on offense. So you see some flashes as a shooter from short midrange. Will that translate who knows? So show some flashes as a passer.

Does translate, who knows, can he get that motor on offense up so that he's able to make more of an impact when he's not getting his looks around the basket? That's the question. You know, you could look at him is a more athletic version of Kavana-Luny, who can run the role. Inences, Kavanaugh-Luny is asked to do very little, and he's paid a very low salary, and you're not spending a high pick on him. So that's the risk with Duren. And I would consider taking him if the Pistons got a pick from, like, number 10 onward, I would consider that because, and the later, really the later, the better,

because you're, though, who knows, I mean, who knows what return the Pistons will get on grants, if any, even if he's traded. But the higher you get, the less worth. I would say the risk is against the potential value, you know, with other, because given the opportunity cost, with other potentially better players in the board. So, yeah, pick tenor onward for Duren is what I would say. Okay, let's move on to Mark Williams. But first, our typical word from our sponsors at Draft Kings with an ad that seems to be outdated,

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My guess is that this applies to the NHL finals between the Lightning and the Avalanche, but couldn't tell you for sure. So Mark Williams, much less nuanced player with a considerably higher floor, is what I would say. A fantastic anthometrics overall. He's a true seven-footer with a 7-footer with a 7-5-inch wingspan, 240 pounds at low body fat, and uses that length, expertly. So a strong functional dunker around the basket really uses his length and goes up hard, dunks hard from above the rim, unlike Duren, who really does it from below the rim when he doesn't have runway, or rather when he's not dunking off the run. Williams doesn't really even need to jump much. Strong vertical spacer, thanks to his height, plus his gigantic reach and being a decent leaper.

Pretty soft touch around the basket, not a leap but good, good hands, good at catching passes and gathering quickly and going up quickly on dunks and layups. Strong roll man. Willing passer. Decent at making passes from download obvious targets. Still, it's a good skill to have, though he probably won't draw any double teams in the NBA. Didn't draw many in the NCAA, but, you know, he'll find an open man on his side of the floor. Solid rim protector, positions himself well, uses his length well, recovers well in terms of making blocks,

just a good shot blocker overall. And good at staying vertical. Again, just really good at using his length. Pretty strong rebounder, aggressive, positions himself well, good at tipping rebounds out. That's a useful skill. Tyson Jamler was just the best at it in the NBA. He really was almost kind of a, if I remember correctly, kind of a trendsetter in that way. He often wouldn't bother to catch the ball.

He would just tip it. Now, of course, Williams isn't that good, but it's nice to be able to tip offensive rebounds accurately to the perimeter. And he's mobile enough and runs the floor well, though this is more just the standard now in the NBA for traditional. Biggs. He's nothing special in terms of just the baseline for centers of that sort in the NBA. Decent Leaper. Decent mobility. Nothing special, but certainly no slouch. And finally, he's a hard worker. Just, again, in contrast to Duren, Mark Williams is always finding ways to make himself useful when he's not getting the ball. I mean, he's just dashing around the interior, setting picks, blocking guys off, and so on and so forth. And that's great. So his downsides,

like during very little ability to create anything. No real post game, which again, post offense is very hard to make work in the NBA. I think he will have the ability to exploit mismatches, but definitely can't shoot. Depends on others to create for him. And I'd say that it's unlikely to change that part of it. Also, really not so good free throw numbers, that 72% is not bad. Well, it's not good, but it's not terrible. He's not the kind of guy you look at and say, well, he might just always be a bad free throw shooter. But you want to say, see that improve in the NBA anyway. But really worst of all, and this is the thing that gives him a much lower ceiling, is that he's not a great switch defender, just doesn't really have the

feat to do that. And that makes him, that's an issue in the postseason. I think basically if you're going to be a traditional big who has no agency, you better be a pretty darn good switch defender. Otherwise, you're giving up a lot on both sides of the floor. It's just that value equation. Also, I mean, not only are you not providing good switch defense, you'll be targeted by a opposing players. And I don't think Williams really is going to, I mean, he moves well, but, I mean, he moves well enough, we'll put it that way. He doesn't just get burned. Like, he knows out of position himself. But I think he's going to get beaten by explosive guards without a tremendous amount of difficulty. And that's not a huge issue in the postseason, because again,

he's, like, decent. But in the postseason, like, it's just not good enough. So he'll just constantly get attacked. He won't have a ton of value on offense because he's, He can just largely, it doesn't need to be covered. He can't shoot. He can't really do anything for himself or very little. But he's not going to make it back on the other end because he'll simply be drawn to the perimeter where he's a lot less useful than he is in the interior.

And it's that disparity in value that teams will attack. Not only because a player is weak, but if the player is strong in the interior and not strong in the perimeter, you better be pretty darn sure that he's going to get switched on to constantly and then his interior defense becomes much less of a factor. It's really no longer okay to be a traditional center the postseason who can't switch.

So, and that's Williams, and I don't really see it likely to improve because he just, again, not an outright liability, but he can't move his feet very well. So just the value difference between the interior and the perimeter, unlike what I think will be the case with Duren is pretty significant for Williams. So I think he'll be a good regular season center. Just a guy who's a pretty solid rim protector will be strong on the role, will be strong as an interior score as a vertical spacer. But when you get to the postseason, it will lose a lot of value.

So when we're talking Duren versus Williams, that's really the evolution of NBA postseason basketball. Like, it's, again, it's just not okay to be the traditional center who can't switch anymore. Williams definitely a higher floor. Duren has the higher ceiling. Could easily be very valuable in postseason defense, but has major questions about offense. Would I take Williams, you know, around pick 10?

No. and I would take Duren at that point. I don't think Williams is really what the Pistons are looking for. I don't think Stewart is the long-term starting center unless he's got a strong role man next to him on offense. A guy who can also shoot, there are not many of those. So if the Pistons don't nail one of those, they'll probably be looking at moving Stewart to the bench

where he'll still be valuable and he's going to be valuable in the postseason 2, but Cade needs a good role man. And I think the Pistons will be looking for a starting center who can switch and doesn't lose that value by being forced to defend in the perimeter, or at the very least, is a strong score, strong creator. Because if you look at this last postseason, you can really separate the centers into four categories.

The first is minimum salary centers who are decent enough to stay on the floor, but aren't going to provide you with much, but presumably you've spent that salary elsewhere. Guys who weren't switch liabilities, but you're not expecting a ton from them, and you've spent... This is basically somebody like Claxton,

when you've got a ton of offensive talent around him, and the fact that he can't create isn't a big deal. Your other categories are strong switch defenders, strong creators, or head trouble. And Aiden kind of falls a little bit into the head trouble category because he's not a strong switch defender. He's not bad, but he's a much better interior defender. So you draw him out to the perimeter and he loses value on defense and on the other end, he really depended a great deal upon his teammates to create that offense for him. I think he scored a lot of points in the first rounds when Devin Booker was out. He was assisted on 87% of his buckets. That's a lot. Still,

that could become a stronger creator, except, you know, the fact that his handle is awful. Won't help in that respect, but who knows? Still, that's my question about it that I voiced earlier. So, yeah, those are these two players, and I can't really think of anything to say that wouldn't be just outright repeating myself. So next up is going to be Terry Eason and Jeremy Sohan, two of the really strong prospects on defense who could go in the lottery. And after that, the final one, which will be posted on Tuesday, will be Dyson Daniels. If you enjoyed this episode and other episodes, consider following us on Twitter at To the BasketPod.

As always, thank you for listening. Next episode will be posted on Monday. Catch you then.