Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 116: Impromptu Mailbag Episode!

Episode Date: September 7, 2022

This spontaneous mailbag episode answers a variety of impromptu listener-submitted questions.

Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Driving to the Basket, part of the Basketball Podcast Network. I am Mike, your host coming at you today with the solo episode. Was it originally meant today to be a Central Division preview? We talk about, well, of course, the other teams in Central Division, including the Donovan Mitchell Trade, and also a little bit about where we thought the Pistons would finish next season. Unfortunately, my guest for the night was unable to make it due to computer problems. So decided to pivot and just go with a mailbag episode for the day. So I want to thank everybody I asked for questions who sent them in. And let's get rolling. So first off, what percentage does Stewart, Isaiah Stewart, needed it from three to be able to stick in the starting lineup? So I've been pretty outspoken and talked about Isaiah Stewart at length. Actually, two episodes to go with Jack Kelly about my belief that in order to even be a just like an even offensive contributor, like a non-minist offensive contributor, Isaiah Stewart is going to need to be able.

to shoot threes at a relatively high percentage because he's got his issues as a role man. He's got his issues as an interior score because the guy is undersized in a poor leaper and has to score beneath the basket, which is just the difficult feat against other centers. And yeah, not a lot of threats, just has limited amounts to offer on offense. And so that three-point shot is going to be necessary. I honestly think he'll need to be a pretty decent standstill mid-range shooter as well. and I think he's got the touch for that. I think he's got a touch from three as well.

And like I said, I think he's going to need to have that three-point shot in order to make it work on offense at the NBA level and to not be a negative offensive contributor. I mean, there's really no mincing words. Stewart was really bad on offense last season. I mean, he was one of the worst starting centers in the league, the worst centers in the league period at scoring the restricted area. He had his issues from the perimeter. Mostly he just didn't shoot from the perimeter, but he definitely. had the yips, so to speak, and didn't do much mid-range shooting either, but even regressed from that,

you know, from that distance. And Isaiah Stewart, who can shoot threes, can not only stretch the floor, is not only going to have his defender need to cover him out of the three-point line, thus creating additional space in the interior, not for his teammates to attack the rim. He's going to be able to take that highly efficient three-point shot. I mean, the three is a very, very, very efficient shot. And also be able to participate, like, in the pick and pop, excuse me, for example. And so definitely useful. And if you can shoot from mid-range, again, just from a standstill, not pull up mid-range shooting, just from a standstill, the decent percentage, then cool. That basically those two things together mean that you can't

leave him open. And, yeah, that's just great for additional space for his teammates. So what Stewart going to have to shoot? So I think about this question, if we're talking about, like next season, then it doesn't really matter all that much. I don't anticipate next season really being, like winning is not really the priority for the Pistons next season. We'd like to see them win more, sure. But their priority is development. Now, if you're going to the season after that and just other seasons after that, which hopefully winning will be the absolute singular focus for a long time. So if we're looking through that period, what would Isaiah Stewart have to be from three to start at center.

Well, hmm. So a bit of a loaded question for me because I don't think that Stewart is likely to be a long-term starter for this team in any situation. Jack and I spoke, you know, again, a couple episodes ago about our thoughts on Isaiah Stewart at Power Forward. My opinion is that doesn't have much to offer there, aside from maybe like Spot Minutes or in particular situations. So I don't think he's going to be your long-term starter power forward, no matter what, unless

he developed. like a remarkably better handle. And that's kind of a tall order. Because otherwise, that's just a guy who just doesn't really have much to offer on the offensive end, at Power Forward at least. And, you know, again, even at center, he's going to need to be able to shoot.

But in a vacuum, let's see. Like in a vacuum, if he's got like a Rollman at Power Forward, like if he's playing with Marvin Bagley, Power Forward, and Bagley's good enough to be starting Power Forward on a postseason team. team, then I'd peg Stewart high 30s, 38% minimum in order, because you know, you have to, and he has to be consistent. And there has to be a guy that you just can't leave open or he's going to punish you for it.

So, yeah, in that situation, and for him to be like a pronounced plus offensive player, yeah, I pegged high 30s. Just he's pretty limited in other capacities of scoring as a center. Now, I'll say it again, Stuart is a very good defender. aside like he's got a few weaknesses he you know i'm just going to list his few weaknesses here because on the whole he's very strong his weaknesses he doesn't really play very good weak side defense because he can't really come flying in because he's not an explosive mover and he's pretty poor leaper he can't defend against lobs for that pretty much the same reason he's a poor leaper and also

he struggles against a few centers who are just taller and more athletic and can just rebound over him and score over him on the offensive glass aside from that stew it's a very strong defender This plays into another question I got, which is how is Isaiah Stewart this good at rim protection, despite being pretty small at the five. And Isaiah Stewart is about six, seven and a half without shoes. So not very tall for the position, to say the least. He's listed at 6.9, no, 6.8, excuse me. As NBA teams almost invariably round up, though, I'm fairly certain that Cade has rounded down to 6.6.

So how is Stuart that good at rim protection despite being small at the five? I would say he's got very good positioning. He's got very good defensive instincts. He's able to position very well because his lateral mobility is excellent. He's got long strides and just he's fast. There's a lateral mover. He's fast. It's one of the reasons he's such a good switch defender.

So he can position himself well. He knows where to be. And if he jumps to challenge your shot, you're very unlikely to move him. like pretty much he's there and he's jumping upward and you're probably bouncing off of him. And if you're a guy like Anthony Edwards, and we saw this with Edwards a couple seasons ago, I think, or maybe it was last season, where he got challenged by Stewart, you know, maybe like five feet in front of the rim. Actually, less than that, probably about three feet from the rim. And basically Edwards, who's an absolute tank and an athletic freak, just hovered in the air, took the hit and scored anyway.

but for the vast majority of players running into Isaiah Stewart, who was just jumping straight upward, is going to be a bit of a difficult experience because you're slamming into a largely movable object. I mean, Stewart is muscles on muscles. The guy is about 6-8, 250, extremely well-built and compact. So those three factors also, he just knows that a position himself well to contest. Again, he just got into positioning. I was talking at that point about just being in the right spot, but also he knows how to use his length also to contest shots.

So just the all-around package in that respect. Just notice I'd get himself in the right position. Knows what to do when he jumps up the challenge of shot to make it as difficult as possible. And, yeah, again, good luck moving him. I mean, this is not a situation in which you're kind of bouncing off of each other with Isaiah Stewart for the most part, the average guard. And, you know, most players, yeah, are just going to have trouble moving him at all when they run into him on the way to the basket.

So that's how we're so good. And on top of that, and yeah, just to clarify, I mean, Isaiah Stewart was top five amongst starting centers who, you know, played, I believe, you know, if I had to look back in my stats, who played, I think he was top five, number five or number six, and defensive field goal percentage to the rim amongst all centers. It started at least 41 games last season, around 52%. So pretty darn good. Yeah, as a paint protector overall, very good.

and as a switch defender, very good. He's what I like to call a no variance defender. Basically, you can't throw a switch, no matter which scheme you throw at him, he is likely to be just equally effective. You know, if you're just playing, basically if you're just, if you're throwing guys at him and asking him to defend the rim,

he's going to do well at that. If you're asking to defend the paint against other bigs, generally he's going to do fairly well at that. If you're drawing him out to the perimeter and asking him to switch on guys, he's going to do very well at that. So valuable offensive player, if he could jump like a foot and a half higher,

or if he were like five inches taller, then the Pistons would have had absolutely no need to draft Jalen Duren because Stewart would be a very solid starting center who had all defensive upside. Maybe defensive player that year upside. Of course, that Isaiah Stewart also would have been drafted like really high in 2020, easily well within the top ten. You know, like if you take Isaiah Stewart as he is right now

and make him like an excellent leaper, then who knows, maybe that's a guy you take over James Wiseman. Like, this could have been easily like a top five. I know James Wiseman was taken number two, which is a little, excuse me, hiccups a little bit controversial. But, yeah, Stewart would have been up there. He may have even been drafted before the Pistons at number seven. So all things considered, he is what he is.

The Pistons got him number 16. I think he'll be a strong role player and a great character guy for hopefully the rest of his career spent in Detroit. And just to clarify, I hope that he will be in a Pissman. for the entirety of his career. There's nothing not to like about the guy. Okay. Number two, and I just spent about 10 minutes in the first question, who is your dream recipient of all of the cap space next off season? So just for some background, the Pistons, we'll have an enormous amount of cap space going into the next season, which is me next

off season, the 2023 off season. So who would I give all that cap space to? That's tough. So we live in an era in which the average superstar player, star player gets an extension. And, like, if you go, I think it was, like, Zach Lo, who I think is one of the absolute best analysts in the business, did an episode of the Low Post with Bobby Marks long ago. Maybe this was, maybe it was about, maybe not long ago, but maybe like 14, 15 months ago in which they talked about the era of the extensions. And they got it right, it basically boils down to these players to get extensions.

And if they don't like where they are, they force their way out. So it's not very common as for it. star players for all-star caliber players to hit the open market. So that's a tough one. I mean, like your best player probably hit in the market is going to be a 29 and a half year old, or wait, 28 and a half year old, I think, Andrew Wiggins, who is really in his ideal situation with the Warriors being asked to do, to play really a tertiary role on offense next to arguably the greatest shooter of all time under an amazing offensive coach alongside just a fantastic offensive pivot in Draymond Green.

And you can't really, there are no takeaways from how a player performs with the Warriors. Because they're just the living exception. Like they're just an exception in all things on offense. So yes, he did play very well in the playoffs in that system being asked to do number three stuff. And he played good defense too. You know, is Andrew Wiggins worth the max at that point, which would get pretty darn pricey. I believe he's eligible for a 30% of the cap,

which would be a lot of money, especially in the second year of his contract, he'd be into his 30s, and again, he was playing for the Warriors. Would I give Andrew Wiggins the max? No, I'd be really hesitant to do that. I wonder if the Warriors will keep him, because, I mean, they're looking at some incredibly ballooning

luxury tax bills beyond what they're paying right now. But who knows? So if you look at your other guys who are becoming available, who would be of interest to the Pistons conceivably, I mean, there's Chris Middleton. He'll be 31. Is he going to leave the bucks? I mean, that's anybody's guess. I think his game will age relatively well. Do you want to be paying him? The percentage of the cap, he would ask, which at 10 years, I'm having trouble remembering if a 10 years become eligible for 35%. I don't think so. But I could be wrong. case, would you want to pay Middleton that amount of money, you know, just to fill that cap space at the age of 31, knowing that he'll be, you know, 35 at the end of his contract? I don't know. That's just, it's a tough question. And you also look at the possibility of trades that just, again, taking on in that season more

bad salary for assets. It's just, it's hard to know who's going to be available. I'm just going to completely pass on this question. Yeah, sorry, buddy. You know who you are? who submitted this question, but that's just a tough one. I think you might have known that that was going to be a tough one for me. So, yeah, to be revisited next offseason, a lot can change over the course of a season.

So I know that's a bit of a weak answer, but it's a tough one. Honestly, we don't even know if any of these free agents will be available come next season, who will pick up an option, who will sign an extension, and so on and so forth. But also just a lot can change between now and then. So likely 15-man roster to start the season and who gets the two ways. So the Pistons right now are at 17 standard NBA contracts. You need to be at 15 by the day before the regular season begins. One of those is Campbell Walker, almost certainly off the team.

You know, the only reason I can conceive of to explain why he's still on the team is that Troy Weaver is hoping to use him as salary, you know, for purposes of salary matching in a trade. but if he doesn't manage to do that, but we're going with the rest we have right now. So assuming that trade is not going to happen, I think he's bought out, maybe he gives back a couple million, whatever. And then you're down to having to get rid of one more. And at this point, I would guess that that is saving Lee,

because I don't see anybody else in the team being released. Again, this is assuming that there are no trades. But I just can't see anybody else. I mean, unless Weaver just decides to dumps. somebody. I think basically when Rodney Magruder was re-signed, I think that basically ended Sabin Lee's tenure with the team, not because they were picking Magruder over Saban Lee, just because I think they really wanted Magruder on the team, and Saban is kind of timed out. I talked about Sabin a few episodes ago, just in why he's been so poor at the NBA level, and why I don't think

that he's possibly very long for the organization. So it's impossible to look forward and say, okay, well, such and such trade could happen. We've really, you know, surprise his happen. But at this stage, assuming that there aren't going to be any trades made, yeah, I would say the Kamba's bought out and Savenly is waived. As far as the two ways, I think the keeper acts and key, just because if the guy can become like a reliable three-point shooter, then that's a solid depth player who could play in the playoffs. As far as Beheim, I'd be surprised if he remained in a two-way deal. Guy just doesn't really seem to have a ton of NBA upside. Definitely doesn't have NBA caliber athleticism. Doesn't really seem to have much to offer beyond.

just as a three-point shooter. And I think that the Syracuse connection is really what helped get him on a two-way contract in the first place. And I'm not suggesting, like, corruption. Like, oh, hey, like, Troy, you served on my staff. Will you give my son a two-way contract? Not like, for example, hey, like, I'm Arntelman, my son is the agent for Dave Vitas Servetus, and maybe we should draft him.

But even that's speculation. but it's been kind of hard to find any other explanation for that particular piece of maneuvering in the 2019 draft. But what do I know? It could be totally wrong. Nonetheless, I just don't think he tests the upside that you want. I'll put it this way. So you have two guys that you would want on two-way deals.

Number one is just serviceable guys who could definitely play in your rotation in the long term and maybe they're throwing some minutes in the postseason. You get them on a two-way deal. and then you upgrade them. Like hopefully you've got some cap space left or some of the middle level exception left. And you use that to sign them to like a three or four year deal, which is largely non-guaranteed. And possibly you found yourself like a genuinely valuable rotation player who's now in a very cheap contract.

Your other one is guys with upside. And these don't pan out quite as often, but you know, you take a chance on a young player who's got upside. because, you know, he's coming in a two-way deal. He's probably maybe, really just like a home run swing, but that's fine. You not really want players who don't fit either of those potential into either of those potential categories. I don't think Beheim does as far as who the second two-way could be. There are just too many candidates for that.

You could bring back Seku. That's a joke. It could technically happen. But, yeah, like, it couldn't happen last season because if you trade away a player, you cannot sign him to a two-way deal for a year after that. So, our calendar year after that. But, yeah, I'm curious to find out what the issue was, Besegu. I mean, on paper, he's a young player.

He just got really good NBA caliber, athleticism, and length, and a lot of potential. And then he was traded away for peanuts. And then, I believe, traded away again. Was he waived? I think he was traded away again of the Rockets who waived him. And then the Lakers picked him up, and I think he got injured. and he got waived again. I'm curious to find out what was wrong with him, honestly,

that he was given up on by the piston so quickly and that nobody else was interested. But, you know, maybe he'll find his way back to sort of in the NBA somehow. And before we go any further, first, a quick word from our sponsors. If you like listening to podcast, music, or audiobooks, consider using Raycon, wireless earbuds to do it. Raycon's everyday earbuds look, feel, and sound better than ever. They have optimized gel tips of the perfect in-ear fit

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me whether you are buying or selling. All right, let's do it. Number one, Cade will make $100 million in the season after the TV deal after this upcoming one. So I don't think so. So on the current CBA, the maximum salary for which any player is eligible, and this requires that the player meet certain criteria,

is 35% of the salary cap. Of course, they could change in successive CBAs, but I don't think that's likely because that would be probably a major staking point for the owners needing to pay even more money. to just one player, even more a percentage of the cap to just one player. So in order under the current CBA's regulations, that 35%, for which Cade wouldn't be eligible for some time anyway, but of course we're talking about two TB deals from now.

The salary cap would need to be about $286 million. Now, the salary cap currently is about $124 million. And you do get some cap jumps from TV deals. But even if we're looking at, for example, like 2016, when we had that ridiculous cap jump that allowed Durant to join the Warriors and got a lot of players paid way more money than they were worth. That was a jump of less than $25 million. So even if we're looking at TB deals that are significantly richer than that

because significantly higher cap increases than that, and I think you'll see cap smoothing now because I don't think anybody really enjoyed the results of just having that gigantic cap jump in one off season. And I don't think it would have happened if Adam Cillard. had not been so new to his position. But, yeah, I just don't see the salary cap being that high in 15 years. So I'm going to go with probably not.

And yeah, 15 years, K will be 35. Even in 20 years, I'd be surprised if we got that high. Of course, one never knows. You can also have to think about such things as inflation. Like, if you see runaway inflation, then sure, this becomes a great deal more possible. But a lot of factors. But if we're talking about things proceeding at a relatively normal pace,

then I'm going to go with no. Number two, Sadiq plays single-figure playoff games for this team. So the situation in which I can see Sadiq moving is as one of the key pieces of a package for a Stark Alibre player. So let's say that Sadiq really just continues improving and is good enough to be maybe like the marquee player, you know, alongside other picks of the Pistons,

but don't own their picks until like 2028 at this point. at the moment owned by the New York Knicks, a protected pick through 2027 as a result of the Isaiah Stewart trade in which the Pistons sent, or excuse me, for the pick that became Isaiah Stewart, in which they sent over a protected pick through 27 to the rockets originally. Then the rockets traded it to the thunder in order to get the pick that became Shangoon. And then the thunder traded it. to the Knicks in order to gain what I believe was number 10, in this last draft, which they, in this last draft, which they used to draft Jiang. I'm always main doing, Oisman Jiang, I think I'm butchering the pronunciation of his name, whatever the case.

So the Pistons cannot trade their picks at this point unless they are, like they'll be able to trade that 2030 pick come to 2023 draft. And they can trade the pick, of course, at the draft itself after the pick is confirmed to be theirs and so on and so forth. whatever the case. So if Sadiq is playing only single-digit playoff games with this team out of the team, there's something has gone horribly wrong, and the rebuild is absolutely fallen flat in its face,

or he's been part of a trade for a star player. So, huh, that is a good question. So there are a couple of variables here. A couple of questions. Number one, of course, first and foremost, how good do I think Sadiq Bay will be? So if Bay becomes like a legitimate number three guy in a playoff team, excuse me on a playoff team,

I'm a legitimate number three guy. I'm like a championship contender. I don't think it's likely he gets traded because there's only so far up you can go. But who knows? I mean, still at that point you've got a young player whom you drafted who's going to be under team control, even if he's on a max deal. He's on 25% of the cap. And, you know, young, very durable, presumably will stay that way.

Who knows? I mean, that's big if. that's just something we can't know. So I think it's likely as he gets traded if a star becomes available, if he's just kind of like a pretty good starter, like a number three guy on maybe like a second round playoff team. That's the situation, you know, and somebody becomes available in that team, wants Bay as the centerpiece of a trade.

But in that situation, again, you've got Bay who's, you know, a good starter is a good starter, but that's not really going to be a centerpiece. for a trade for a star. So I'm going to go with selling. So, yeah, number one, I forgot to say selling on the K-D-1. So selling in this one, too. Because I don't think that Sadiq is likely to be, I just don't think he's likely to be in that kind of space of, like, you know,

sub-star. I don't think Sadiq will be a star, but if he doesn't get the star level, if he doesn't get the star level, I don't think he'll be traded. and if he doesn't get the star level, I don't think he'd be that centerpiece for a trade for a star. They're like one of the centerpiece players in a trade for a star. Because in that scenario, he's probably topped off his role player in like the age of 25 or 26.

And in that situation, I don't see another team betting on him to improve a great deal. And I also think that this organization in particular, though, of course the general manager will change eventually. But I think that just this organization, organization in particular definitely, and this isn't going to be a deciding characteristic, deciding factor, rather just a factor, really. We'll just prize guys like Bay who are super team first, high character, and so on and so forth. But, you know, I digress a bit there.

So, yep, selling on that one. Number three, if the persons make the conference finals, it's but two or less players from this current roster. Oh, that's a tough one. You know, just in not in my ability to answer it. Well, I guess in my ability to answer it just because so much can change between point A and point B. but going with the current scenario, with the current personnel, I think if the Pistons make the conference finals,

you know, again, a lot can change. Like, a lot of really surprising stuff can change. But if the Pistons make the conference final with this roster, I would think it would be with Cade, with Jaden Ivy, with J. Win Duren, I think Isaiah Stewart is just a likely to stick around on this team for a long time, probably as a role player off the bench. I think that Bay is likely to stick with this team for a while.

and I think his likeliest outcome is fourth best player in a championship team. And then you typically, yeah, I mean, out of the rest, I don't know, but I would wager that at least those five would be with the Pistons if they're a conference finals team in the next like five or six years. So again, selling at Stewart and Durant start 35 plus games this season. So I'd say that Stewart is extremely likely to start. at least 35 games this season. I mean, if he plays 70 games, I think you can pretty much book it that that he's going to start 35 of those at center. Now, if Duren ends up starting 35 games this season,

there are two scenarios I can see that. Number one, he's just, he's playing extremely well. And so well, that Dwayne Casey's like, okay, well, we'd like to get you in the starting lineup. And typically Casey will make the young player earn it over the established rotation player and the established rotation player at center right now is Isaiah Stewart. So, like, if you have some combination, like, I know I just said Stuart, you know, if Stewart is healthy, then maybe Stewart plays like the first half of the season, but he's really struggling and then has like a, like a brief injury, Duren steps in, does super well. And then just Stewart comes off the bench after that. And you basically have them splitting like the beginning of the season and the end of the season. Or it's kind of like a screw it situation.

And you really want endurance playing really well. And you want him the starting lineup and you decide to move Isaiah, Isaiah, St. Stewart to power forward, which is not something I would like to see happen in the long term, but next season, you know, I think halfway through the season, the Pistons are not going to find themselves in, you know, position to fight for the playing tournament, for example. I also don't think that's, I think it's, again, focuses on development, so I don't think that's likely to be a factor, but I'd be surprised. So I'm going to go with selling on this one, too.

I think Stewart will start 35 plus games. I don't think that's what I'd have with Duren, just based on how Casey operates. I don't think, who knows, maybe we'll see them both in the starting lineup, like at season's end, if the pistons, you know, particularly at the pistons just, you know, are not. But I think it's a fairly unlikely scenario of them fighting for a play in spot come, like come February just because of how darn strong the East is right now. And again, that's something we'll talk about next episode. But, yeah, so that's the only scenario I can think of. But if I had to put money on it, I would say that Duren plays the vast majority of his games off the bench next season. So, I'm going to go with selling. By season, Zem, Livers will be considered a long-term starter.

Man, sound like a broken record here. I'm going to go with selling on that one, too. So this is a thing, like, you know, I think that there should be reasonable expectations for each player. The vast majority of players will not be stars. The vast majority of players will not be high-end starters. And role players are valuable. What I think Livers is likely to be is a smart, high-character guy who works hard, makes the right decisions. shoots threes at a fairly high level. You know, can maybe attack some closeouts and, you know, if the persons are super lucky, maybe do a little bit of off the dribble shooting. But though, as I, you know, as I say this many, many times, it's not an efficient shot

for the vast, vast majority of players. Anyway, and play solid defense. So if Isaiah Livers is a high character, hardworking, high IQ guy who can shoot threes at around 40% and make some decent things. passes, you know, and attack some closeouts and play rugged defense, then that's like a fantastic value on his draft position. And that's a solid player who can log minutes for you in the postseason. I don't think he has starter upside because, I mean, well, you can look at just the general factors and then the factors in this team in particular. The general factors fairly low athletic upside

by NBA standards. The guy's going to probably have trouble attacking anybody off the dribble. Probably, again, unless that pull-up shooting comes. comes along and I'm not going to make the disclaimer again because you all know what I'm going to say at this point. If that doesn't happen, I think he's got very limited potential as a creator. And this is just going to have just fairly limited offensive utility. High percentage three-point shooter, useful, absolutely. But fairly limited offensive ceiling and very limited ceiling as a creator. And then on defense, I think that he'll be able to hold his own. But I think that if you get a really fast player switched on to him, he's going to struggle to keep up because he's not like a

louch. He's not like an outright bad athlete, but he doesn't have the quickest feet. So I don't, so I think he's, he's likely to be a player who's going to provide good value off the bench and just, just good intangibles. But I don't think he's going to establish himself as a long-term starter, like unless he ends up being like an absolute world-beating three-point shooter. And that includes like motion three-point shooting. Like we're talking like Duncan Robinson's first two seasons. And, you know, and even then, I mean, Duncan Robinson was and remains a switch liability and it was only really spolstra's like absolute genius coaching minds that kept him from becoming a liability particularly in the postseason so duncan robinson and the average team would

would be would have been a postseason liability in general so even then yeah i don't think i don't think livers is going to be as bad as robinson on switches by any means and i think he's a much smarter defender than robinson and so yeah so even if he became an excellent three-point shooter though I don't think that he would have like a solid long-term starter upside in a contender. For, you know, rather the upside of a long-term starter on a contender. Also, you add it to this team with like Bade presumably is a long-term starting lineup. Cade is definitely a long-term starting lineup. And that gives you like Cade who's kind of like me at best as far as Tafford NBA athleticism goes.

And he's fine. That's not an issue for him. Like he's not a slouch by any means as an NBA athlete. And he's got all the qualities he needs to. to transcend that limitation. But you have Bay, who is the below average NBA athlete, like, period. And that's the reason if he's on the pistons, because he fell to 19 over concerns over his ceiling

because of his relatively poor NBA athleticism. You do not want to give your team, like, poor athleticism on the scale of the starting lineup. So you add Weavers into there, and Wevers is a below average NBA athlete. And suddenly, your starting lineup starting to get a little bit slow. Like even if you've got to be a little bit slow, like even if you've got Jaylen Dern, for example, who's a very good NBA athlete, not elite, but definitely good. And Jaden Avi, who's absolutely elite.

Even then, I mean, it's real nice to have guys who can run faster than their opponents, jump higher than their opponents, or at least run as fast as or jump as high as their opponents. It's really not fun if you're on the other side of that scale. So that would be a consideration for the Pistons, but even a move of that, I would say probably not. Next up on this one, the very best version of this current role, Roster will have Ivy as the lead guard long term. Goodness, selling. Sorry, I'm laughing at the fact that I've sold on all these at this point.

So I think Kay just has vastly more upside as a lead guard. I think that Ivy has questionable upside as a lead guard. I don't think that the piston sees him as a lead guard. I don't think he sees himself as a lead guard. I don't think they would have drafted him if either of those things were not true. So one of Ivy's weaknesses is that he does have a really questionable ability to make the right reads, not questionable ability. It's in question if he can effectively make the right reads and passes off the drive at the NBA level.

Who knows? Maybe he'll improve in that respect. There are questions about that at Purdue. I would say, like if you would take a player like Ivy, and if he did have that, you know, that high passing IQ and just that high IQ of creating just excellent ability to create for others off the drive, then great. Yeah, absolutely. We give him, make him your lead guard and just, you know, run them on endless sets into the interior.

have him take advantage of it like John Morant does, for example, but he doesn't at this point. I don't think he's likely to develop it upside. Meanwhile, Kate is special in that respect. I mean, Kate has fantastic basketball IQ, like excellent court vision. He has turnover prone. He was as a rookie, and it's just the way he plays. He's always going to be somewhat turnover prone, but he's a guy who's going to make the right decision, the vast majority of the time. You can see what you can basically see two steps ahead on any play. And so, like, unless something happens to Cade, I think, it's immensely. I'm like, if something happens to Kate, I don't think this iteration of the

pistons, I mean, their possibility of winning a championship plummet. We're talking to something happening, like a really severe injury or something like that, that just makes them unable to be that weed handler on a contender. So, yep, definitely selling on that one. And finally, Weaver hasn't proved anything in terms of drafting and Kate, Ivy, Durham with three of the easiest picks of the last two drafts. So, huh, I would say two things. All right, so it's important. like just generally the average team that is not just built itself through free agency and that's generally just LA teams or Brooklyn or sometimes Miami. The general manager, you know, if it's championship team, general manager has found

at least like one all-star caliber player at, you know, fairly late in the draft, like in a team somewhere or beyond. So has we ever done that? Like probably not, not unless Sadiq Bay ends up being that guy. Cade was the obvious pick, I think, like for where the Pistons were. I mean, Mowgli and Jalen Greene were there, but I think Cade was for good reason and certainly for the Pistons, just the obvious pick. Ivy, I know he was kind of my one B after Matherin, but I don't think that was a very out there pick either. I think Ivy was going to be Ivy or Matherin, so I think that, or apparently Duren was even a possibility there.

But, yeah, I think that that was just, you know, Jaden Ivy, Ben Matherin, whatever at that point was going to be the pick. and I think Ivy ultimately made more sense because it gives just the higher ceiling and the higher potential as a creator. Durham was a great get at number 13 with that trade. So I think that deserves credit definitely just in itself. It was nice that the Hornets were willing to sell at that point, willing to sell pick number 13. Some could say that that was a mistake, whatever the option was open. I mean, Weaver had generated the cab space. You know, just, well, through his decisions, had the cap space to take on at Campbell Walker.

So you get to give him some credit there. Isaiah Stewart, definitely good role player at number 16. And yeah, so it's hard to say. Here's the thing. I think we can pretty well be, I think we can pretty definitively say that Troy Weaver is a competent general manager at the NBA level. I know maybe some of you are listening to me and saying, well, well, you know, that sounds like a very minimal endorsement.

I mean, there are two things there. Number one, like competent is good. Or three things really. Competent is good. Like absolutely. you say a guy's competent. I mean, that's, that's for me, that is definitely an endorsement at the NBA level. There are a lot of general managers who are not competence. I mean, Troy Weaver has, is definitely, he's gotten fortunate with the, he got fortunate in 2021 with the draft

lottery odds, 100%. Just winning that lottery was a fantastic stroke of good fortune for the Pistons. That's not to take anything away from him, because he did, you know, the Pistons conducted things well in that season. You know, they gave progressively more time of the young guys and they just, they arranged it such that the team was not winning too many games. You know, and got rid of some of the veterans as well, of course. You know, you had to buy out Blake Griffin, but fantastic, the fact that that's, you know, that that was done at all. I mean, I guess Tom Gores had to be okay with it, but,

but we'll put it this way. Like, you know, yeah, he, he positioned the Pistons properly. A lot of things went right. The Pistons ended up with Cade and whatever. Just Troy Weaver and sure, he does not have a lot to live up to as far as Pistons, GMs are the recent past. There are only two of them, but they're both bad. At least, but Dumars later on, he was very bad.

But I think he's done well. I think he's proven really beyond any doubt that he is competent. He knows what he's doing. He does things for good reasons. So number two is, you know, am I, I'm not going to give him like a ringing, ringing endorsement until the Pistons are a contender. That's just, I think that's how you should judge a GM. And number three, I completely forgot what I was going to say.

But those first two are definitely true, you know, definitely true of how I think about things. Now, I think we could, you could really call a halt to. his tenure right now and you could be known as is a good drafter. Killing Hayes being his only real miss, you know, he'd be known as a competent drafter. Yeah. Now, if he wants to be known as a good drafter, then either Sadiq Bay turns into a star or the Pistons pick in the lottery, like sometime in the teens somewhere and sometime, outside of the lottery, sometime in the next few years, and he picks like a really good player.

Or even later in the draft than that, of course. Or if he finds like, you know, multiple, like really subtle. solid rotation players for championship teams in the second round. I mean, that'll obviously go in his favor as well. So while I think that he still does have something left to prove, I think that's kind of distinct, though it may sound funny, but I think it's distinct from that he hasn't proven anything. So it'd be tough for me to buy or sell on this one.

If you forced me into picking one, I would say selling. All right, moving on to our last four. questions. So number one, it'd be interesting to hear your worst-case scenario barring major injury for the Pistons. So I think the chief development metric for the Pistons this season, and this is going to be the theme in the next two questions as well, is development. So, but yeah, I think that development is the measure of success for the Pistons next season. And we'll continue to be also for at least the season after that, the Pistons, presumably will be trying, you know, looking for more wins come the 2023, 2024 season to go along with that development.

So the worst case scenario for the Pistons is that things go wrong with the youth. K doesn't improve. Ivy comes in and really struggles. Bay doesn't make any improvements at all. Killian doesn't get together at all. Stewart can't shoots. Pomadu doesn't learn to shoots. That's what you're looking at. And Bagley doesn't improve at all either.

That's your worst case scenario is that you do not see, you know, that you don't see significant improvement or even players regress. though like with the likes of Killian you know regression isn't really much of a thing given how bad he was and I don't think you're likely to see Bagley we get worse than he was with the Kings that he definitely wasn't good with the gangs

he was pretty poor whatever the case yeah is that you don't see that just that the youth really struggle that's your worst case scenario for next season or actually your worst worst case scenario is that one of them sustains like a career altering injury on top of that or alongside that that would also be extremely bad is there a win minimum this year for it to be a successful season?

I mean, if the Pistons are good enough team that they make the plans in a very, very, very, very strong east, or what's looking like a very, very, very strong east in which, as things currently appear, like there are nine strong playoff caliber teams, then fantastic. Like, the Pistons could slot in a number 10, but, like, even teams down there will have improved. I think the only team that got, like, definitively, really worse was the Hornets. So, you know, if they can make a respectable go of it and have a shot at making the playoffs, like, cool, that would be impressive.

That would mean that there had been a lot of developments and the youth had played really well. But is there a win minimum for it to be a successful season? I don't know if they see a lot of development. I mean, they might see a lot of development and still be a bad team because the east is so strong and just because at this point, I mean, this team has a lot of upside. But a lot of upside doesn't necessarily mean talent in the now. So, but yeah, there could be a lot of developments.

Like a conceivable, last case, scenario would be the Pistons, see a lot of development, and still somehow end up with high draft lottery odds. I don't want to be rooting for the Pistons to tank, or to lose down the stretch, rather. I mean, if losing is the best thing for them down the stretch, then so be it. I mean, that's the way to go. But as I've said many times, it got really stressed for the last two seasons, like worrying, oh, are the Pistons going to be able to lose this game and just watching and praying that the Pistons would lose.

so but that that may end up being like an ideal situation for the future is that the pistons see a lot of developments for whatever reason they don't win many games and then they end up with good draft lottery odds in a very strong draft or what's looking to be a very strong draft in any case so yeah again for me this development is that number one by a long shot success metric and so the third question in the set what are your keys to a successful season could any player players be that key if so what do we need to expect from them. Yeah, again, basically already answered the question, and the players who are key to that are the youth. And final question, what is the largest animal Isaiah Stewart could best unarmed

in neutral terrain? Okay, so there are a lot of animals in the world, obviously, so this is a very broad question. So I'm going to stick to the environments in which I have lived, and that is the northeast, the Midwest, and the Rocky Mountains. So we're going to do with that. now it's animals of the sea. I guess those really don't apply quite as well because we're talking neutral terrain. Yeah, so that doesn't fit there. So we've really done a job in eliminating predators.

So there aren't really many to choose from here. You know, you could you could talk about, oh, could Isaiah Stewart wrestle a bull? But that's kind of like a pointless exercise. The bull is just way, way bigger than him. And, you know, can't really, I don't know how he would beat a bull, for example. but it's also a farm animal.

So let's see. We're thinking about predators, though. We've got wolves. A wolf would not fight against Isaiah Stewart, Stuart, who is huge. I mean, by the standards of his position, he's not very tall. By the standards of the general population

and just the earth, he's very large, you know, around six, seven and a half, and a very low body fat, 250 pounds. So no wolf would ever consider fighting Isaiah Stewart unless it had an advantage. it's just, Stewart's bigger than the wolf and just more dangerous and that wolf is going to go off and west is starving. He or she is starving and find some prey that's going to be a lot less dangerous

to fight. And aside from wolves, I'm probably forgetting something here. I mean, the next biggest in the areas in which I have lived is the black bear. And so I think Stuart would stand a pretty high chance at besting an adult male black bear. They can get up to about 500 pounds. I think they average like around 400. I looked this up before the podcast. I did a little bit of research for this question. So I think that Stewart would stand a good shot at defeating a 400-pound black bear because just, you know, the human body is not as fast, but you're on two legs.

You've just got a lot more dexterity, a lot more agility, and just a lot more to work with, you know, when you've got these arms. that are specialized for that purpose. You're not walking on them, or using them for things. So I think that Stewart would stand a good chance. You're not in a fist fight. You don't want a fist fight of black bear, obviously.

But, yeah, I think that Stewart would stand a very good shot, unarmed of just, like, choking out a black bear, even an adult male black bear. Again, I don't think the bear would fight him, unless it were a question of starvation. Black bears would really rather be lazy just go after something that's not going to fight back. If you're ever confronted by a black bear, and it is not a mother with cubs.

Like if it's a mother with cubs, the mother will fight you if she thinks that you're a threat to the cubs. So in that situation, you know, you might be in a little bit of trouble and your best bet is to back slowly away. But your average black bear, yeah, I mean, well not, like if you're in this situation, yeah. So if you're in a situation, you're facing a black bear, just make yourself as big as you can and make a lot of noise. And if you have other people nearby, have them come and stand next to you because black bears don't of the greatest eyesight and it might make it look like, make it look to the black bear like you're just one giant creature instead of, you know, multiple smaller creatures, whatever the case. If you just, yeah, if you just make yourself seem like a difficult target and you're not, like,

really small, then the black bear is probably not going to come after you. And Isaiah Stewart standing at six foot eight and 250 pounds, it just stands his ground against a black bear and makes a lot of noise that bear is probably going to not only not judge it worth the trouble, but actually run away. So we'll go with Black Bear. Now, there are Grizzly bears not too far west of where I currently am. And I'm not sure I would bet on Isaiah against a grizzly bear. Honestly, I would not bet Isaiah against a grizzly bears. Grizzly bears are quite a bit larger and a whole lot meaner than black bears. And I think even if you look like at Shaq, for example, like Prime Shaq in the NBA, I don't think Prime Shaq could take on a grizzly bear. I mean,

they are huge and they are nasty. So I'm going to stick with Black Bear. All right, folks, that'll be it for this episode. Again, next episode will be a Central Division preview and some talk about where the Pistons might reasonably finish next season. As always, thank you all for listening. Catch you in the next episode.