Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 194: The Implications of Pick #5 (Again)

Episode Date: May 17, 2024

This episode recaps the draft lottery, opines on why falling to #5 has much lesser implications than it did last season, and discusses some potential picks of interest (and others of no interest).

Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to another episode of Driving to the Basket. I'm Mike and hope you're all doing super well today. Friday episode this week, doing my best to stay on schedule, not doing a great job lately. This week, unfortunately, was pretty unwell throughout much of it. So here I am. I'm going to do my best to stick to Wednesdays,

but if I can't go with Thursday or Friday, better than late, excuse me, better late than never, I suppose, or at least I tell myself. So biggest news since last week, of course, was the draft lottery, which did not go the Pistons way. Pretty discouraging to have this happen two years in a row. And certainly discouraging for it to be really the worst case, literally the worst case scenario at the end of the worst regular season in the history of the organization, one that was absolutely and just completely skatingly horrible and miserable for all of us. Or if you managed

to enjoy it, I guess I shouldn't say all of us, because if you managed to enjoy it, more power to you, You know, good for you. You have the capacity to enjoy things that people, you know, that the average person would find incredibly unpleasant. And I suppose that's a skill. So I digress. So Pistons fell to number five. It's worth noting that it's not entirely improbable that this happens. The team with the worst record in the league has a 48% chance of falling to five.

It's happened twice to the Pistons, which means that there was basically a 25% chance of that happening. And as for why the lottery odds are what they are, you can blame the process era 76ers for that. For those of you who are not familiar with the process 76ers, basically their goal in this began, I believe, in 2014, was to be as bad as possible to exploit the lottery odds, which back then gave a 25% chance at the number one overall pick to the team of the worst record in the league. And the furthest you could fall was to number four. So the entire point of the process, which got the Sixers, a lot of high picks. One of them, they wasted on Pistons Legends, Duleo Lokofor. Pistence Legend, we played for the Pistons in the first season of the rebuild. And I believe it's out of the league now.

I got them Embed at number three. It got them Ben Simmons at number one. That didn't go too well. Markell Fultz at number one. Didn't go too well either. And basically, they, were incredibly brazen about it. They did not make any effort to hide it at all.

That was ultimately what got Sam Hinkie, who was the general manager of those 76ers, replaced because he was very, very open about the fact that they were megatanking. And, of course, he didn't have to be open about it. Everybody knew it. So what ultimately transpired, well, number one, there were two effects of this. And these both came of the Sixers really alienating,

really just leaving the other owners in the league, very, very disgruntled, just watching the 76ers do some. something that was very exploitative. So consequence number one is that Hinky got pushed out by the NBA front office as a result of which Jerry Colangelo ended up. I think it was Jerry. Am I going to the wrong? There were two Colangelo's father and a son, whoever was the son. Ended up as general manager of the 76ers. He was really bad. And then they fired him after Burner Gates. Go look it up. And they replaced him as interim for one summer, basically for one

draft, excuse me, with Brett Brown, who was their coach, was a bad coach, and managed in that just very short time as interim GM to make an enormous error of trading away Mikal Bridges for Zaira Smith and a future first. And of course, Bridges, even if he had just been Phoenix, Bridges, would have been extremely valuable to the 76ers team. Zahira Smith, who, he ended up with an allergic reaction, which really kind of derailed his career. But even then, I mean, he was an undersized guard without any shooting pedigree. So, questionable and then they used that first round pick as part of their, well, the next general manager who came in, Elton Brand, who was a complete disaster. He used that first round pick to trade

for Tobias Harris to play fourth option and then signed Tobias to a max over Jimmy Bubber. The upshot of all of this is that the 76ers suffered for it ultimately because they ended up with the series of completely incompetent general managers by the time Darrell Mori came in. I mean, it was a miracle that the Sixers were even in position to contend at all. So, but consequence number two, which is much more relevant to Pistons fans, was lottery reform. And the current lottery system is meant to disincentivize teams from ever, again, doing what the 76ers did by giving flat odds to the top four teams for number one overall pick. And also giving a greater probability of teams falling, particularly the worst team in the league. Now, it's worth noting that the change of the.

to this system required a three-quarters majority amongst the NBA's board of governors, the owners, in order for these to pass. So at least 23 owners voted for this. That is how disgruntling the owners and the rest of the league found what the 76ers did. So it's meant to disincentivize teams from being terrible. Now, the Pistons were not deliberately terrible. It's worth noting that. It didn't have to be this way. I mean, you've got to try pretty hard to win as few games as the Pistons did. I mean, it has to be at least somewhat deliberate. Like in the season that Cade missed most of, it was still a developmental roster. And in 2022, 2023, it was still a developmental roster. And of course, Cade missed 70 games. It was a huge blow to the team because he'd been the best

player as a rookie. And he was presumably going to be the best player as a sophomore as well. But that team was not intended to win games. That team was intended to develop players and have good watery odds. And what was looking, well, of course, had one of the hottest prospects in a long, long time coming in and was looking to be a strong draft overall. But this season, of course, the Pistons set out to win. Front office fielded an inadequate roster. And then the coach, of course, put a gigantic, huge wrecking ball through the portions of his team on any given night. So that's why it ended up this way. I mean, the Pistons did not go into this season intending to be bad. The Pistons suffered from a poor roster, which again, I think, could have

won 25 plus games under a good coach, but was certainly inadequate to the task of competing for the plan, which is presumably what they wanted. And then having a generationally bad coach, like the worst coach in decades. And again, my Pistons, like I've said, my Pistons history only goes back about 40 years, though I've been watching the team for far shorter than that. and I'd say he's undoubtedly the worst coaching higher, the worst major higher this team has made period ever in that time. So the Pistons were not being punished for tanking this season. They were not being punished for putting a bad product out there.

They had an absolutely catastrophic season in the course of trying to win. And this is why that coach, who refers to himself as the same name as the evil nuclear power plant owner from the Simpsons. that was actual first name is the last name of the Toronto Maple Leaf Second Line Center who was drafted first overall by the New York Islanders back in I think 2008 or 2010-2008 or was that Stamcoast I can't remember and then of course as the last name as the same last name as the only hitter in major league baseball to ever record 400 in the season in any case I mean that's why Tom Goraz went out and spent a stupid amount of money on a coach who didn't

deserve it and didn't want the job because he's like okay it's time to compete now. And just as with Dwayne Casey, you got a little bit fixated, presumably on the whole coach of the year thing, or the whole has presided over a successful rebuild thing. So this was supposed to be a winning season. So it's not, I don't agree with the narrative that this is what you get for being bad.

The Pistons didn't intend to be bad. Last season, they did intend to be bad, or at least not intend to be good. We heard when Troy Weaver took over that the organization didn't expect to make the playoffs for the next several seasons, presumably three, given what we saw in terms of what the timetable ended up being. So that wasn't a season, again, in which they were going to try to win. That was also not a season in which they were going to win 17 games if Kate Cunningham had not missed all the 12 of them. And also, again, it was the most consummate wait season tank

I've seen in a while in that season, again, when you're second and third leading scores from early March onward are Killian Hayes and James Wiseman. In terms of points per game, you can see really what kind of roster is being fielded. Bagley and Wiseman duos. Man, it was ugly. And then the Pistons went on to win less games this season with a better roster. A significantly better roster, not least because Kate Cunningham was on it. So I've gone around and around on this before.

But the point is, the Pistons were not being punished this season for trying to lose as many games as they could. They just happen to have a certain extremely bad circumstance that caused their season to have the heart ripped out of it. and they ended up the worst team in the league. Though again, they really tanked again the last five, six weeks of the season. But it was just some very unfortunate circumstances that led them to have the least wins in the league. And then that 48% chance got them again. Now, this stings a little bit less this season to drop to number five because this draft is nowhere near as strong. In fact, this draft is projected to be very, very weak.

And Mike, you can be reasonably sure that Alex Tsar is going to go in this. top three, probably number one. But even he would, I mean, he's not a guy who would be even considered for a first overall pick in any draft since like 2013. 2013 is, this was another very, very weak draft. And the two best players to come out of that were Janus, I think, at number 13, and Goberra, I believe, was 28, like two Palo of Fame caliber players, of course, but it was just one of those circumstances that could very well be the same this season. Well, basically, there were no slam dunk kind of like these are awesome talents there was not even a single one of them let alone three or four or five that this draft is just very very very very very weak and the main

downsides basically just hurts west the fact that the pistons dropped to five hurts inherently but outside of maybe alex sarr i mean the field that's kind of wide open no it's incredibly it's just extremely difficult to tell exactly where any given player is going to fall. It's very, very, very nebulous in that way. Now the chief downside for the Pistons, of course,

is picking fifth is that one is better than five, two through four better than five. You know, the guy you ultimately want might not be on the board at five. The pick has less value if you trade it, or you have less opportunities to

do what the pacer is so cheekily, did to the Wizards last season, which is, oh, hey, we know the player that you want to take, so we're going to take him first and then force you to trade up. So that part of it sucks. You know, you don't control your own destiny as much. But this is not the sort of draft where it's like, again, probably aside from Elksar, that's in which you're looking at it and saying, well, darn, you know, there are these really good players near the top, and they're going to be gone by the time we pick.

Wembe was going to be gone last year by five. It's going to be gone by two. Let's be real. Miller was going to be gone by four. Scoot was going to be gone by four. So those were the big three there. And if the pistons had, you know, for the teams that picked like sixth in 2021, for example, like the Thunder had that enormous treasure trope picks already. But they were not able to trade up. My guess is that, well, it was seen as a very, very strong draft in the first place. And no team in the top three was realistically going to trade out of it. teams in the top four were not realistically going to trade out of that because the talent level in terms of the guys who looked like sure things really dropped off after four or five going into that draft if you include Scotty Barnes who did have a lot of fans and did end up going number four but yeah I mean you do look at that draft where it's like yeah we get to number six and it's like crap and they ended up taking Josh Gitty who's not bad but not great but was not considered to be anywhere near on the level of certainly Kade or Mowbly or green.

Suggs was highly thought of, and again, even Barnes was highly thought of. So the Thunder had all those picks. And I mean, maybe they tried. I got to think they tried actually probably pretty hard, but not hard enough to actually make a dense with just a bunch of future first that may or may not actually place, you know, even inside the lottery. Chances are some of them will.

But anyway, so this isn't a draft like that. I mean, we could, draft night, it's like more than any draft that I've really done any research on, which is pretty much just like 2019 and later. No, more 2020 and later. So this is just the fifth draft in which I've really done a ton of research. It's just incredibly difficult to know where players are going to fall. Now, there are some players you can be relatively confident. We'll go in the top five, I think.

I believe Donovan Klingin is. like is is likely to go in the top five. Alex Sar, I think it's very likely to go in the top five. And beyond that, well, let's put it this way. I think that SAR and possibly probably connect.

Maybe not, but probably will be off the board by the time the piston's pick. But beyond that, I mean, Zachary Rees-Haye, constantly screw up his name. Like, he's been projected this season as the top five pick,

maybe even the second overall pick. At one point, maybe even the first overall pick, but it's entirely possible the guy will go after four. So it's, I'm just repeating myself, basically this is not anywhere near, like even in the realm of as painful as 2023 was. On the other hand, I mean, that's a double-edged sword. So it's not anywhere near as painful because not only is the top three week, the top four, but the draft is weak in general.

So expectations should be tempered as far as what the pistons might get out. out of this at the very least in the short term. This is a draft, like, potentially like 2013, and that the best player may be found at like 15 or 25 or something like that. It's just going to be weird. But the Pistons basically, yeah, like I said, temper expectations. The fifth pick in this draft would be considerably, in terms of value, would be considerably lower in the average draft.

And it also means that the actual, the value of the pick. in trade scenarios is likely to be substantially lower. So it's different in this situation looking at number five. It's like, oh, we want to get somebody really good. We're not willing to just take a win now player. You know, the player we take should fit X, Y, and Z criteria. It's just it's not working like that in this particular situation. So what the Pistons end up doing, I mean, it's just really, really difficult to know.

like we don't even have the president of basketball operations in yet. I think we've heard that Connolly from Minnesota is the golden goose. Who knows if he'll stay there or not? He hasn't opt out after this season, my understanding, and I've got to think this is the case, given that this isn't like the end of a season. Like once the season ends for a player, like once his team is knocked out, then he becomes basically an unrestricted free agent in terms of his contractual obligations. But for somebody in management, of course, you've got the draft after that before the league year ends.

The league year ends on June 30th, right when the free agency moratorium begins. So Connolly presumably his opt-out doesn't begin until that date. However, I mean, given that he can just opt out, no matter what, you got to think that I think it's likely that they would let him talk to other teams. But maybe not until the postseason is over. and I was hoping that the Timberwolves will get knocked out in game six for that purpose. Instead, it was one of the greatest blowouts in a long time, and we're certainly in this situation against a very good Denver team. But, yeah, hopefully that'll be figured out soon.

Teams are already starting to pick off good coaches. Charles Lee has come off the board. Chris Quinn, who is a longtime heat assistant. And, I mean, Spolster today is the equivalent of Popovich, like a decade ago in terms of just being the best coach in the league. But not just that, but also I think you'll see his coaching tree grow in terms of his assistants going on to get good jobs. I mean, the Popovich coaching tree is huge.

Like so many of his assistants have gone on to be head coaches, some of them very successful head coaches. So Quinn is a guy who I would love for the Pistons to keep an eye on. There are others. I can't remember who the Lakers have been said to be looking at. And it's like, the Pistons don't even have the guy. they haven't even decided upon the guy who will decide about who the next coach is going to be. And the Pistons are currently maintaining the worst coach in the NBA just in case this president of basketball operations wants him to coach again next season.

So it's hard to know. I mean, I think it's very, very unlikely the Pistons will go for a pure upside pick just given where this organization is. The upside player is already on the roster. The fact that there's very, I got to imagine, given. Given what we know about Tom Gora's and just given how things have gone that, I mean, that we know that Pistons are going to want to win some more games next season, hopefully not a pell-mell dash back to competing. That really sacrifices the future. But I think we can rule out the possibility of a pure upside pick, unless it's somebody they're just planning to stash in the G-League. I don't think that the Pistons are going to kick like a pure, like a really just high upside pick who can't compete now.

I don't think there's going to be any room for another player like that on the roster. So, I mean, the real question comes down to do they make the pick? Do they try to trade the pick? How much is the presence of players already on the roster going to impact the pick if they make it? You got to think probably fit over upside. But let's look at, say, if you're looking at a guard like Reed Shepard, whom I don't like for the Pistons, and I'll talk about him a little bit later in this episode. But if you have another small guard, and I mean, Marcus Azzer isn't going to stop them from doing anything,

but you got Kate, of course, at one of the guard spots, and I don't think they should ever kick him up to small forward because you're just losing a size advantage there, and he's going to be banging a lot more on defense, and I just don't think they should do that. I don't think they will. But so you've got Kate at one of the guard spots. You've got Ivy and Grimes,

and Grimes, if he's what he was in his sophomore season with the Knicks, and Tom Tibido, Tobido, I never remember which one it is, really did him dirty in this last season. But Grimes was a top 15 shooting guard for the Knicks in his sophomore season. He can't do anything off the dribble, but he's a strong, multi-positional defender. And when he's good, he's a high-percented shooter from the perimeter as well. But his offense is basically just spot-up threes and cuts. And you can attack some closeouts, too.

But you're not going to ask him to be a creator on the ball unless he really finds another gear very abruptly. He's not doing any of that at all. But nonetheless, as long as you've got another creator in the lineup aside, from K to secondary ball handler, then, you know, you'll live with that. So if Ivy doesn't work out, or if Ivy, though, I'd be surprised to find it, is traded, whatever. But, I mean, these things are going to go into who are the pistons going to pick? Again, if they trade it, like, they trade it, it's presumably because they think that the value they're going to get out of, you know, out of a known commodity is going to, you know,

regardless of losing out in a rookie contract, you know, for four years of having a guy under, under contract and an affordable price, and you're presumably going to be paying significantly more for kind of a game-ready player by trade. Yeah, I think you're likeliest to see the pistons go for value in the draft or very close to value in the draft, like a guy who's just a little bit incomplete and whom they really believe in. Yeah, or trade it for somebody who can help you in the now. But that, of course, depends upon how valuable the number five, pick is. So it gets pretty muddied in the fact that we don't have, that we don't know who's going to be coached, who's going to be running, who's going to be president of basketball operations,

but his philosophy is going to be, you know, how he's going to choose to operate, how many guys in the roster are going to stay. So again, I'd be pretty pissed if they were to sell, sell low on any of the youth. I think that's a terrible idea because I think there's still this team's best shot at potentially competing down the line. If, if development is kind, another reason to get rid of the current coach who was horrific at it last season or horrific for it and at it. So I think it should be reiterated that the incoming president of basketball operations is not going to have any attachment to Troy Weaver's players. So that's worth keeping in mind as well. And so it just goes around and around in circles.

Unfortunately, I don't think there's any real call to speculate on potential trade targets. It's, I used to do this, but it's just so. hard to know what teams are going to do, who's going to be available, what the price is going to be. Again, I wouldn't expect big things in the trade market for the Pistons for two reasons, whether it's with this pick or otherwise. Number one, of course, the Pistons don't have much in the way of assets. And when it comes to, you know, a big trade, they can easily, you know, for a major player, they can easily be outbid by other teams, you know, the thunder most prominent amongst those who have drastically more in the way of assets, whether that be players who can help now,

and future draft picks, then the Pistons do. But also the Pistons, like I think it should be reiterated that there was a reason the Pistons won 14 games last season. It wasn't because the roster is an almighty disaster. You build a roster to win 14 games. You're trying to make it as bad as you possibly can, and this was not that bad of a roster. So, and if it was this bad of a roster,

just saying, well, let's trade stuff just to get better. I mean, that would make it even worse the idea that we should trade a bunch of stuff and sacrifice some of the future, to win an extra like 10 games. But yeah, the pistons just are not in position right now to be making a major trade that's not going to make them substantively better. And it's not going to elevate them from good team to contender

and they'll be sacrificing some of the future. Now again, the likes of Assar and Duren and Ivy, all of whom are raw with uncertain futures, are going to not likely have great value on the trade market in the first place. So let's talk about. bit about the draft itself. Again, be shocked if Alexar was still on the board when the Pistons pick, so I'm just going to rule him out. After that, it's a conceivably wide open field. Like, Rissichet was, I think, is likely to go in the top five, but even that's not for sure.

You look at Riseschay. Another French prospect, and the Pistons have had a ton of success with those in the last five years. Joking, of course, also doesn't matter. You know, the fact that they're from the same country is, yeah, that was a joke. Yes, he is from France. Good defender. He started off strong as a shooter, six foot eight. So a guy who could line up potentially at either forward position. He started off as a strong shooter this season before going into a pretty significant slump

from which he just, I think, last three or four games. I haven't checked up on his stats for like a week. But he had started to recover a little bit over the course of three games. So that's a pretty small sample size. but basically like a 3 and D guy solid enough rebounder the issue is is very questionable on ball potential you know what can he do as a creator and even in this draft are you going to want to spend a really high pick

and a guy who may just be 3 and D you know assuming that his shot earlier in the season you know earlier in his current season was really him and that long slump was not then he's a safe pick and that's not necessarily a bad thing for the pistons at this point so definitely somebody you know something to consider I'm really just primarily looking at three guys at this point. That might change as I continue to do draft research on just what's going to be the wonkiest draft research I've ever done

and hopefully have some guests on to do that to talk about those players. But if I were to look at three right now, Rises Shea would be one of them. Busellis, sorry, pronunciation is not up to, not really up on the up and up as far as, are not super informed on the pronunciation. Buzellis, who played in the G-League last season, or this past season, 6'5, 6'10 wingspan. Risa Shea, by the way, didn't go to the combine. We've got all the anthra metrics and strength and agility and whatnot for all the players now.

So, Bozellis, 6'9 in NBA terms, 6'10 wingspan. And he's kind of like the mix between upside and the now, because he is, he's got creation upside. He's the sort of long, rangey wing who can handle the ball and potentially attack off the dribble. Decent enough rebounders, got defensive upside. He's athletic. He's athletic categories at the Combine, though he is pretty slight at this point at south of 200 pounds. That's something, obviously, he'd need a remedy. The shot is the question, because though he did shoot around 40% in high school, that was on low volume, and he shot 20% percent. percent, or 27 percent, excuse me, they're a little bit shy of short of 28 percent, I believe, 27 and a half in the G League.

The shot is the question period. It's a guy who would probably be a lock to go maybe in the top three if the shot were actually good, but the shot is questionable. So it depends on how you feel about his mechanics. I haven't gone too deep into the mechanics yet, and it's worth noting that the Ignite, who were in their last season now, that program is over, were absolutely and horrendously terrible in the G-League. Like, absolutely awful. The Ignite existed for players to go and make money. This is why the Ignite are gone now.

Existed because for players who wanted to go and make money in the now rather than go to school. And of course, with NIL, that's no longer, I mean, well, presumably some guys just don't want to do school, period. But NIL, if you are a touted athlete, you can make quite a bit of money. So just the reason of existence for the G-League Ignite is just no longer there. So, Buzellis, the question, is all about the shooting. And of course, Asar was coming in last season.

I didn't. I personally did not believe in his shooting in the G League at all. Excuse me, in OTE at all. OTE is significantly worse league, too. But Asar was drafted really as an extremely raw offensive player, and Buzellis is not that raw. But just comes down to the shooting. I think the Pistons would only take him if they were confident

that the front office, the incoming regime, whatever that might be, would only take Buzellis if they are very confidence that the shot is going to come along. So, of course, if he can do that, he'd feel an extremely, you know, he'd feel an extremely, well, necessary, like just a huge gap for the pistons right now. So would Riesa, even if he is just a 3-N-D guy, which is a power forward, you know, a power forward of the future. It's tough to find that kind of guy in free agency these days, you know,

for reasons that, again, just guys, you know, good players, good starters, don't really hit the market all that often. But I do wonder if the front office is even going to have license from ownership, from Tom Gores, to pick a guy who is like, well, if he can shoot because the pistons, I think, are kind of past that point at the moment. Of course, all of Weavers, if he can shoot guys, you know, pending on Ivy and in Assar have failed. But again, this is where it comes in, like with ownership, with the incoming president of basketball operations, how kind of like we just need to take guys now who can help us in the now. if that's going to prevail. If it is, and if Riesas Shea is off the board, I think Dalton Connect, if I'm, again, my pronunciation may be off.

Could be the pick. He would be the third player of this trio I'm looking at right now. So Connect, strong scorer, you know, particularly a strong shooter, who's got some upside and, you know, can do some scoring in the pick and roll, can do just some scoring off the dribble in general, just elite shooter. Very athletic at the combine, you know, pretty good wingspan. He's a guy who, he would be 6'6 in NBA parlance, would need to, you know, bulk up a bit to play small forward effectively.

But, you know, a guy you might comp to Tyler Harrow with longer arms, though, of course, that's a lot to ask for, for a guy to come in. He's not quite the shot creator Harrow was either, so it's not a perfect comp. But basically a guy who, his main weakness is defense in the fact that he's 24 years old. though I don't think the Pistons are really going to care that he's 24 years old. The defense is kind of a big question mark now. I don't think it's horrible, but it's questionable, and he's likely to be a minus defender.

But again, at number five here, you might just be getting a bench player in in this draft. It's like, okay. And for a team, that's like the Pistons, okay. If you can come in and your offense, if your shooting is going to translate, and if you can do some creation off the dribble, and you're just get a guy, be a guy who's going to come in and space the floor at an elite level and give us some good offense off the bench and some solid, you know, some solid creation, hopefully, then that might be your ideal fit for the Pistons.

I don't think he's going to start on this team unless we see a lot of defensive improvement in the starting lineup. But again, you've got to temper your expectations given where the Pistons are right now and given where the, just given where this draft is. So those are the guys I'd be looking at at the moment. Again, just based on those criteria of the strength of this draft. particular where the Pistons are right now. And presumably where they would like to be, you know, i.e. better next season and not taking on more development projects who, you know, will most likely not be able to contribute now and maybe not ever. And it's funny where, you know, my,

my crack about French players, because Seko de Nboa was actually the real, the pinnacle of that, pinnacle of that archetype. He was coming in with no known game ready skills at all. He was extremely raw and he was picked on the basis purely of upside. He ended up coming in and having like two or three good weeks with the pistons before falling flat in his face and never getting it together. I'd still like to know what happened to him. That a guy who presumably, you know, who still had raw talent and was still very young and been a pretty darn good NBA athlete. It just disappeared from the league and just nobody wants him. Though granted, he's now toiling in relative obscurity in the G-League. And if you're at his age and you can't stomp the G-League,

then you're likely not going to make it in the NBA. Very likely not going to make it in the NBA. So guys I wouldn't be as interested in, Donovan Klingan, just don't really like him for the Pistons. Now, a lot of, like, the possibility of taking it big, and he's like the only real big outside of Alex Tsar in whom the Pistons, you know, who's likely to be very good. Excuse me, not likely to be very good.

Like this draft is not big on bigs in the first round, and certainly not talents. you would consider taking in the top 10 outside of SAR and Biggs, we're talking centers here. I think it's a better way of putting it. And Klingen. So Klingan, I think, will be drafted before the Pistons select, but the Duren question really would come in here. It would have come in if Sarr, if the Pistons have been picking first overall, and I wouldn't have passed on Saur for the sake of Duren. So I've actually posted a couple of pretty lengthy videos about Duren on Twitter.

If you don't follow them to the basketball, that's T.O. not the number two. I put up about 27 minutes of Duren being a really bad defender last season and 17 minutes of Duren actually being surprisingly good on offense. He really, his development trajectory has been the opposite of what it was expected to be, where he was coming in as a very raw 18 year old actually, who had done decently well in defense at Memphis but had been very, very limited on offense. So the expectation was that based on that he would come in and make a good amount of progress on defense this season and basically his long-term trajectory would likely be a strong defender who probably was going to be limited to just

you know finishing lobs and running the pick and roll and just finishing easy buckets under the basket maybe doing some passing because he showed some of that upside at memphis but instead he came in still with very very weak fundamentals on defense and ultimately pretty poor work ethic and was one of the worst starters in the league at his position on defense. And on the other ends made extremely surprising developments on offense. He developed the ability to attack off the drive, particularly against opposing bigs. I mean, it's his combination of athleticism, size, and handle. It's not all that common. He did just his footwork, his poise, his patience and his touch around the rim, all of which were bad as a rookie. He shot about 48% on layups as a rookie. Improved drastically.

Like his footwork and touch and his poise and his patience were actually good this season And this season on a more difficult shot died he shot about 57% on wayups And I mean, all of this came out of nowhere Like my concern about Duren my fear for him was basically I thought that he He was going to be he was going to have a high floor because of his athleticism and was going to be strength on the role and his defense. And that his way of washing out of the league was going to be if he just couldn't get his shot together on wayups or on the baskets and his free throw percentage sucked. Now, it's the opposite of that.

It's like he shot 80% from the line. He made a ton of improvement on offense. The question now is defense. And if you're this bad as if you're as bad on defense as during the season, and I know the possibility just that his ankles were bad has been brought up, he went extremely hard on offense at all times. so I don't buy that his ankles are really the issue there. You know, effort may have been the issue. I mean, effort was an issue, and that's concerning in the first place that can't happen. I don't, absolutely do not subscribe to the notion that, oh, well, you know,

the Pistons just needed to do a better job of keeping him engaged and he would have played harder if they'd, you know, if they'd been more in games. Look at the vast majority of players in this league. Almost all of them work hard no matter what, no matter the situation, they go out there and work hard, and they may feel a little bit deflated, and they may not work as hard as they, they do in like an excellent locker room when the team's really on a tear and everybody's in the zone. But they don't phone it in. You know, it's a rare thing. It's something I kind of feel like, and I don't mean any offense to this by anybody who remains a fan of the guy. I feel like Drummond kind of normalized that to a degree, like a guy with a lot of talent, just not trying hard.

It was not normal with him. I mean, that was not a normal thing back then. He was an extreme anomaly, and Durand's terrible level of effort as the season went on on defense last season was also it's a big anomaly that is not normal. So the question about Duren, again, assuming that you can, you know, let's assume that he can come in and give a 100% effort next season. It's what is his upside? Because if his fundamentals are as bad as they looked, you know, it doesn't matter about his progress on offense. He's going to be, he's going to be, it's just going to be a massive hole where the, where the most impactful defender on the team should be. I mean, bigs are always going to have the highest potential defensive impact. That's why

they win defensive player the year almost invariably. It's just centers in Dremont. And occasionally, the voters get bored of voting for a big. Dramon primarily an interior defender. Yeah, occasionally the voters get really bored of voting for a big. And they elect Marcus Smart, you know, to the award instead. So again, Duren's issue, his issues did not stem from the team around him. Those things definitely didn't help.

and strong perimeter defenders can help to hide weaknesses from a center. But there are two things there. Number one is that, I mean, Duren's fundamentals were just terrible on their own. The guy couldn't defend the pick and roll. His positioning was hideously bad. His awareness was awful. He got burned on switches. He got burns when he needed to defend fast players in general and not even fast,

sometimes not even fast players at all. When he was defending them from the perimeter on in, he just his ability to contest shots properly was terrible and just he got constantly lost his defensive decision making was very bad and if he go through and look at all the possessions in which he got scored on one on one like some guys who have good defenders who just get scored on a lot because the guys they're going up against are really good or they're being put in bad positions and that wasn't the case with durin you look at the times he got scored on were often because very, very often because he did something wrong.

And at times when he successfully contested a shot in the interior, it was often he wasn't doing anything in particular. He was just like in decent position holding his arms up. It wasn't like he was making good defensive plays. So like if that's all it takes and then, you know, for you to be good on defense, if you're that kind of player where it's just like I'm just going to be in the right position and put my arms up, cool. That's not going to be the case for the most part.

Duran often when he made good, you know, when he got stops was being helped by his teammates. or the guy just missed. So number two here is that if you're a traditional big, then the necessity for you to be at least the solid defender goes up. Because even if you're, you know, even if you're darn and you can be, you know, and you improve on offense, I mean, you're still a traditional big. You're still a guy who is not going to stretch the floor and is primarily, your offense is just going to be around the basket.

And, you know, just the importance for you to be a good defender is just significant. significantly higher. Now, Duren the issue, you know, if you're going to start this week and if you're going to be a good player. But even if you're a traditional big, basically your defense has just got be, your defense has got to be at the very least solid and ideally good, like if you want to make a high impact. So, and Duren is not, this season was not only not solid. He was terrible on defense. So this is a different discussion as far as, you know, what are the Pistons do in free agency? Like my opinion is that the Pistons can't really bet on it, bet on his defense drastically improving. in that this is the last season where they're going to have significant cap space.

There are some guys in the market. Maybe they could take in salary, just will cost salary dumps or in free agency. And also, I think you want to go in next season with a guy who can push Duran, you know, compete with him for the starting spot. And if Duren can't improve on defense, then maybe take the starting spot and the pistons are not left in a position where just they have a gigantic hole on defense. They're going to get scored on constantly because it's the most important, you know, arguably the most important guy on the defensive side of things just can't do

his work. But when it comes to Klingan, even if he's available on the board, I wouldn't take him. He's likely to be a strong rim protector. I mean, he's got fantastic size. He moves his feet decently well. He's not a switch liability, and he can defend in space. He's going to be primarily a drop guy. He's not, I don't think he's going to be good on switches. I think he'll need to be protected a little bit. And in terms of defending in space, again, there will be a bit that can be exploited there. I think he's ultimately a guy who's going to have a high four. I think, I think, I think he'll be a good defender, and he's also an above-average passer at this point for his position and smart. And again, he can't teach size.

I mean, the guy is genuinely seven-foot-two. And he's got just a fantastic wingspan. And he's quick enough that he's not like Zach Eady, who's probably going to, or, you know, an extreme example, Taco Fall, who has spectacular size, but just couldn't move anywhere near or fast enough to play defense in the NBA. Klingin, I think his ceiling on offense is going to be. not so great as a score. I think maybe he's a shooter. I don't know. But I think it's entirely possible that he ends up as a guy who's just going to be a finisher. And one thing about Klingin is that he is not athletic. He is not likely to be strong in the role, in my opinion. I mean, he can vertically spaced a four to a degree just by merit of his size. But he's not a good

weeper by any stretch of the imagination, and he never will be. You know, he's not quick by any stretch of the imagination, he's not going to be explosively rolling the rim, and he never will. It's just how it's just where he is. And Cade Cunningham, if he's the future centerpiece for this team, I mean, he needs a strong, strong role man, Cade whiffs in the pick and roll. So if you're just looking at team needs, yeah, you need better defense. Again, if you're willing to draft this guy, if you're willing to draft Cling it at number five, I would imagine you have to have serious doubts about J.1 Duren if you're the front

office, you know, doubts enough to possibly move on from the guy. but also, but if you're just basically robbing from your offensive centerpiece to strengthen the team elsewhere, not ideal, in my opinion. I also have concerns about Clingon's ability to stay healthy with this frame. Other guys, you can look at Shepard, Reed Shepard, you know, a great shooter, like maybe a decent secondary playmaker. Again, this boils down to, like, there are going to be some questions about roster fit. and it depends on what the pistons want to ultimately do with Sasser and Ivy and Grimes. But Shepard, not a primary playmaker.

His defense is pretty poor. He's, if I remember correctly, about, well, like I've genuinely actually got the stats up right here. So it'd be pretty easy to just take a look. So let's just, yeah, okay. So he's about a half inch taller than Marcus Sasser. He has a six-foot-three wingspan, which is quite bad. It's not a killer in the NBA. I mean, there are some guys with that sort of wingspan.

Span who, well, it's harder these days, but are decent enough defenders. But, yeah, and he's not a primary playmaker. He's just, I'm not a fan. I'm just not a fan. I mean, the Pistons have four guards in the roster right now. They, it's not like, you know, Shepard, do you believe in his playmaking? I mean, you'd have to improve pretty significantly, but like a guy who's six foot two or is basically satirized and is not much of a playmaker and is could just end up

being a very secondary playmaker with and just a shooting specialist who has to play next to a larger guard. Who knows if Sasser will be anywhere near as good as Rit is, as Shepard is, but I just don't see it for the Pistons. I wouldn't not draft him because of Sasser, but I just see a lot of downsides for Shepard. And also, again, the Pistons have three or if you include Sasser, four guards with potential there. I just don't see a point. I just don't see it working. You look at Castle, Stefan Castle, can't shoot. So this is another one of these guys where it's like, you know, you're looking pretty good as a secondary playmaker. You've got good size. You have, you know, on ball creation potential. And, but you can't shoot, like 27% from three. And you have not even,

like high school as a, like Buzellas says, okay, maybe you can do this. I don't think the pistons can do that. I think that's just basically what it boils down to. So what else? You've got Ron Holland, a wing with a lot of upside, can't shoot. You've got Rob Dillingham. There's another undersized guard who is probably going to struggle on defense. And that's just what this draft is. You know, that's just what this draft is. It's a draft that does not really have much even in the way of safe win-now players.

Maybe a dark horse for the Pistons is Cody Williams, you know, who's got good size. That should be a sullen, multi-positional defender. And, you know, has some on-bublished. potential. The issue is with him that he has no history as a reliable three-point shooter. He's around 40 percent, the senior of high school, he's around 40 percent at CU, University of Colorado, but he attempted very few threes. I can't remember if it was point. He made less than one a game. I can't remember if it was 0.7 or 0.9. He made a total of 17 threes in his entire freshman season. Again, if the team is extremely confident in his ability to make those,

on higher volume, then maybe you look at him. But I'd be surprised. I would be surprised if the pistons took anybody, aside from maybe Bozellis, again, if they were very confident in that shot, because at least he has some history, as a, you know, somewhat sort of higher volume three-point shooter. But I would be shocked if they took somebody who just didn't have any track record at all.

So, yeah, those are the three I'd look at right now. Bozellis sort of Risa Shea, if he's there, and connect, I think is very likely to be a very likely to be a record. available at number five. And again, you can look at him and say he's 24. He has defensive deficiencies. But again, that's just where we are. This is the 2024 NBA draft. It's not like most drafts. All right, folks, that'll be it for this episode. As I've noted, coming up is more draft content, so deep dives on the various players and whom the Pistons could potentially be interested. And as always, I want to thank you all for listening. Hope you're all doing great. Catch you

in next week's episode.