Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 222: The Jalen Duren Conundrum (mini-episode)

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

This mini-episode details the exceptionally unfortunate situation this organization finds itself in with Jalen Duren, with regard to the present and the increasingly dim possibility that he's a viable option for starting center of the future. 

Welcome back, everybody. You are listening to another episode of Drive Into the Basket. I'm Mike and hope you're all doing great today and had a fantastic weekend. I felt like recording this little mini episode just to talk further about something I suppose I've already opined on at length, which is what I would call the Jalen Duren problem. Now, I know I spoke about this quite a bit on my last episode with Anthony from Pistons Talk, but I felt like I just wanted to expand upon it a little bit more. So by this point, we all know the problems. Well, the two big problems, number one, his level of effort is awful, like just terrible, sub-Andre Drummond levels. Drummond was a harder worker at this phase of his career. At age 21, he came into the same age as Duren. Effort was not an issue for Drummond in his first three years. And even afterward, the guy could come into a game, play terribly, but at least dominate the boards.

And, you know, when I'm comparing that favorably to Duren, it's pretty bad. This version of Jalen Duren when he doesn't try is bad at pretty much everything aside from finishing, which he's, you know, better than Drummond probably ever was at this point, but that's nowhere near enough. He, again, at the age of 21, and after doing this on defense last season, has been checked out for the vast majority of the season already. Last season, he didn't try. He took advantage of a coach who was, a situation, excuse me, with a coach who was never going to hold him accountable. Two, and only his second NBA season after working very hard as a rookie, just stopped trying on defense for basically the entire season, which is, of course, on him,

any player who does that is not a product of circumstances, and you never need to compel to motivate in any special way an NBA athlete to try hard. Those who don't, it's on them. And Jalen Duren's level of effort is, he is very much the problem, unambiguously so. and the fact that he had phoned it in completely on defense in his second season was a massive red flag. You know, the fact that this sort of thing happened with Drummond throughout most of his career should not normalize it because this is not normal. It is not normal for these guys who are in their vast majority consummate competitors who want to bring it every game.

It's very unusual for them to just decide that they don't want to try. So the Pistons, unfortunately, have now been cursed with two of those over the past decade. but it's far worse with Duren because again it began it began much earlier and after last season we saw or rather we heard him say yeah it wasn't injuries I just didn't bring it I have to bring it

you hope that that would have changed it has not he's really tried hard truly hard on defense and maybe five games this season which is just beyond unacceptable and it's infiltrated every other aspect of his game as well you know just chiefly the offense well the offense and the rebounding

because at least last season he was an aggressive rebounder and very engaged on offense. And yes, his usage has dropped on offense. Nonetheless, again, there are just not reasons for this to be happening. And bad Duren, excuse me, low effort Duren is drastically worse than low effort Duran. Leverduron can go like double digits minutes without grabbing a single rebound, for example, and just gets wrecked on the boards by guys who want it far, far more than he did. He does rather, at least Drummond always wanted it in the boards. And, you know, on offense just kind of moves around languidly, but the thing is, I mean, it's traditional big.

There are four things that traditional bigs need to do. One of them is work hard at all times because in today's league, unlike how it was 10 years ago, when you had Drummond coming to the league, for example, and say, oh, this guy could be one of the best centers in the league, you know, by his third or fourth season, because back then it wasn't a weakness to be a traditional big. You know, if you could just be a guy who could finish at a high percentage, grab a lot of rebounds and be strong in the role, and then, you know, be good on defense, then, you know, know, you certainly had it in you to be one of the best centers in the league. These days,

traditional center is not going to be a top, top five center just because the way the league has gone and the way the position has developed. I mean, traditional centers didn't go extinct, like it looked like they would, looked like they would, excuse me, in like the late 2010s. But it's now a weakness. It's like it's a pronounced weakness to be a traditional big on offense because having instead a guy who has a lot more to offer, you know, particularly as a shooter and a league in which having a five-out offense is a major strength, you know, shooter or a creator or whatever, but especially the shooting, that's an absence in your game. That's now a weakness. It's not just an okay, whatever, he's

a center. There's an opportunity cost to fielding a traditional big. So in order to compensate and give good value, particularly as a starting center, you absolutely have to be good at four things. So one of those is defense, which I'll get to in a moment. You've got to be a plus defender. Number two is rebounding. You've got to be a strong rebounder. Number three, you've got to be a strong finisher on the basket. And number four, you have to tie all of this together by being a hard worker. You know, motor is a force multiplier. It's going to take what you offer and make it better.

And traditional bigs need to do that. You know, in order to bring their, again, limited assets to bear. So Duren, needless to say, gives you like two of those on a regular basis. Well, really one and a half. you know, he's a strong finisher and, you know, great, you know, he's genuinely good at that. But the effort's not there. The rebounding isn't there when the effort isn't there. And the defense also isn't there. So, I mean, just the effort alone is a major problem. That needs to change. And at this point, unfortunately, I think if you're the front office and you

watched him phone it in beginning at the start of his sophomore season and then come back this season, not that there are any excuses last season. And Duren is the one guy who went on record as saying that he really liked last season's coach, probably because the guy unleashed him on offense and never held him accountable on defense. But yeah, he said he really still wanted that guy to be involved in his development and so on. Whatever the case, yeah, there were no excuses last season.

None of his teammates. This completely gave up to any degree. It was only him. And then he came in this season, and even whatever, again, I think there are no excuses, but even if you think, okay, well, they were in a really bad situation and it was a tough season and so on and so forth as if that should make him to stop trying

I don't agree with that being an excuse, but he doesn't have that excuse anymore. That's for sure. So he's coming to season three, and his effort issues are still completely systemic and constant and very damaging. So at this point, if you're the front office, can you look at him and say, well, man, this guy stopped trying in season two. And it wasn't just a blip. He's come back, and it's a major problem again. Can you really rely on him ever having a consistently good work ethic?

And certainly, can you give him another contract? I think an extension is off the table at this point, no matter how well he plays for the rest of the season. And again, I think based on the defense, there's a real ceiling to how well he's going to be able to play. But, yeah, I mean, you give an extension to a guy like this or just a new contract to a guy like this. What's going to happen? I mean, even if he's been trying harder for, you know, another half a season, I think you can lay decent odds on him now being financially secure, you know, at the NBA level, basically just getting a good paycheck, leading him to stop trying. Or, you know, at least revert to the lower level of effort. You know, we've seen it in pro sports.

doesn't happen very often in basketball, but it does happen. Drummond's own first, like, I don't really give a crap season was the first season of his second contract. I know it's considered more common in football, I believe. But whatever the case, yeah, if you're the front office, I don't think you can trust that he's ever going to bring that effort. And that means you can't trust him as your starting center of the future. But even if he does try hard, even if we do get his rookie work ethic, which was genuinely strong, he still may not be good enough because the defense is bad. Now, he had come into the league at a very young age, and actually the projection for Duren was that he would be a strong defender, most likely,

but might struggle on offense, as given his rawness, lack of touch, and so on and so forth. And his rookie season seemed to bear that out, at least to a degree on offense, he was quite raw, really struggled with the layups, not good with the free throw line, and so on. And on defense, well, what we saw in defense was also a lot of rawness. And again, Duren was a very raw player, you know, a lot of conceivable upside, but very raw at the time. Now, the hope and my hope, and also my prediction at the time, which I believe is very much trending toward being incorrect, was that his rawness, you know, his struggles on defense, especially in the area of making the right decisions, were the product of rawness rather than just not having it in the mold of, say,

Marvin Bagley or James Wiseman. Like, he certainly had his moments on defense. He just was a little bit slow to track things. He didn't position his body super well to challenge shots. He didn't really use his length super well to cut off lanes and just take up space. But it's like, you know, there's every possibility that he just needs seasoning and these things are going to improve. Unfortunately, it's looking at this point, like the defensive IQ just isn't there. And the difference, like, between Duren not trying and Dern trying hard is basically, basically like full effort, Duren is a poor defender versus no effort. Duren is a terrible defender. And it may just be that he does not have the defensive processing ability to provide the value

on defense that he needs to. Because again, traditional bigs need to provide ideally above average value on defense. I mean, it's just a necessity. Well, not ideally. It's like at the very least, like plus value on defense. And ideally like genuinely good value on defense. And with Duren, I mean, his defensive peak was still in his rookie season. He has genuinely made, like, no discernible progress as a defender since then. And his defensive peak is in his rookie season, just because his work ethic was drastically better at that point. And so as a rookie, he was a raw and poor, but potentially promising defender.

At this point, in his third year, again, when he works hard, he looks basically the same, and that's not encouraging in his third season. Like only 21, sure, this is his third NBA season. The average traditional big comes in as a rookie, you know, able to play better defense than Jalen Duren can right now. I'm not sure if there is another third season rotation center who plays as bad defense as he does, at least amongst traditional bigs. Because if you are a third season traditional big with defense that's this bad, it is immensely unlikely that you will be in a rotation at all. So even if the effort issues were to completely go away, and again, the effort issues are inexcusable. I know she just note that again.

But if the effort issues go away and he's topping off just, at the completely oblivious and clueless defender we have seen who constantly makes mistakes is just repeatedly out of position, regularly brain farting, and it seems to just lack the ability to make the split-second reads and decisions necessary to play defense at the most important position, because you have to be able to do that as a center. I mean, that's the most important defensive position, and there's the most to it, you know, just knowing,

where to be, when to drop back and protect the rim, you know, taking up space in the interior. You know what I mean, basically. I mean, it's it's the position that requires the most defensive acumen to play well. And at this point, it's looking very much like he just doesn't have that. And again, yes, young, again, third season, still looking very bad. I mean, the game that he had against the Bowles was merely the worst. He looked back to the game he had against the Pacers when he was working really hard and sure that's helpful, and he racked up some blocks, he can do that, but he still made a lot of mistakes.

And that Duren, we saw in that game, who was trying pretty hard. He was playing at a high compete level, and it made him better on defense, but he was still poor at it. And that's just not good enough. So that's another concern I would think that the front office needs to be looking at, is that does this guy really have it in him

to play the kind of defense he needs to in order to be our center of the future, in order to provide solid value at the position, even if you can depend on his level of effort, which you cannot. At this point, you can't depend on the defense, and he should, by all rights, if he is going to make progress, have made significant progress already. It is a major unlikelyhood at this point that if his defensive processing is this bad in year three, it is ever going to improve enough for him to be a viable starter at the position. Or for him to realistically even provide good value at the position, look around the league,

and, you know, check out if you see any traditional bigs who are pronounced minus defenders playing significant rotation rules. And the answer is, there really aren't any, because it's just not a valuable player. Like, if we could reverse Duren's development curve and just have him be, you know, a good defender who, really on offense is only good for lobs and dunks, that would be a drastically, excuse me, drastically preferable option. Tripped over my words there a little bit because that's not ideal, but the defense is really where it has to come for a traditional biggest where they have to provide so much of their value. And though Duren is above, certainly above average on offense as a traditional big, that's just less important. Useful, but significantly

less important. Again, if you have to take the type that is good on defense and very raw on offense versus very raw on defense, again, raw, I think we can say bad, and better on offense within the bounds of traditional bigs, then you go with number one. You go with the defense 100 out of 100 times. So basically, it's just at this point, if you're the front office, what do you do? You can't depend on his effort level.

You can't depend upon his defensive improvement. I think at this point, you have to be really thinking long and hard about the future the pistons have at the position. Now, does that mean, I think they should just trade him this season? No, I mean, you'd be selling very low. Well, I don't mean selling low,

because just as value is very low right now and at this point, I think it makes more sense for them to wait and just hope against all hope that something will change, because that's probably the winning play at this point, even if it's incredibly unlikely. But barring like monumental changes, and again, you'd have to, well, you need two things. Number one, just a prodigious improvement in defensive acumen in the space of one season. I can't remember that ever happening. And number two, an enormous improvement in efforts. And you have to think, this guy's really turned the corner in that capacity, which I think is extremely unlikely, given what we've seen so far. But even then, again, the defense would still be a problem, the major question mark.

So can you really go into next half season thinking about this guy as your center of the future? And I think the answer is no. So, yeah, we're only about a quarter of the way into the season. I just think this has become a major storyline. And at this point, if I were the front office, I would probably be thinking that he is not it. Now, this also brings up the question of Duren and the press. present as far as where he should fall in the rotation. Now, Duren has been beyond dispute drastically inferior to Isaiah Stewart, who has its own set of limitations. I've been over there many times.

Not good on the roll, not particularly good around the basket, not offense. You know, can be kind of rebounded over by teller more athletic centers and so on and so forth. However, monumentally better defender. Incredibly, I mean, just the work ethic is both objectively fantastic, and spectacularly better than Duren's polar opposite. And his overall impact has been tremendously greater. He has been a positive contributor, and the difference between having him on the floor versus having Duren on the floor has been gigantic.

So you've got that fact. You've got the fact that Bickerstaff has said, yeah, I mean, being in the starting lineup is, I don't remember the way he put it, but it's like it's a privilege. It's not just given. Duren has done a terrible job. Duran has also failed to show up on a repeated basis.

if there is going to be any real system of accountability on this team, and to his, I want to say to his credit, or to say to his meager credit, I don't think he's done a bad job in this capacity, it's only to his credit because his predecessors never did it. He has held during accountable. I mean, the guy has gotten pulled for long stretches when he has just been playing a low effort, terrible game. But if you're going to have a real system of accountability, how long do you continue to start a guy who is not only playing badly, but is playing it? you know, very lazily, is just not giving you the effort, right? Just a basic professional level of effort. And I think that after a point, I mean, if you want to have this notion of accountability on your team be a serious thing, I mean, you're well over a quarter of a way into the season. And Duren still in every single game gets to start and gets first crack at the majority of his minutes if he plays well.

How long should that last, realistically? at what point do you say okay well this guy has potential but even if he had you know even if he has potential well he's not playing well even if he were well he's not playing well so it's not even if he were but the guy's work ethic also sucks he's he's putting forth nowhere near the effort that all of his teammates do and that his counterpart of the position does so i think it's really time for for bigger staff for the sake of this team and for the sake of just maintaining credibility you know in this idea of proper accountability to move Duren the bench. And honestly, at this point, I think this guy should be fighting for minutes with Paul Reed,

who on many occasions, you know, on the occasions when Duren has gotten yanked for just having a really bad game, he's come in and been drastically superior simply because, number one, he's much better on defense, even though he's not a particularly good defender. But number two, he always tries a hard. And that really makes a difference, a guy who's just floating versus the guy who's actually really putting in the effort. So at this point, I just think enough is enough. both in the context of this season and also in the greater context of at some point you have all the potential in the world.

Once enough is enough should not stop you from seeing and reacting to the gigantic red flags that are waving in front of you. Now can anything be done about the Jalen Duren situation or the starting center of the future situation this season? Well, that'll depend on circumstances. At this point, we're only about two months away from the trade deadline. Now, if an opportunity should arise whereby the front office could secure a pretty decent starting center who's under contract for a couple more seasons, and they'd need to send Jalen Duren in return alongside whatever modest draft capital, because I don't think this front office, and I believe rightly so, is going to be sending out any major assets at this point, then I could see them doing it.

At this point, there aren't really many standout centers in the first round of the upcoming draft. next summer's free agent class at the position is relatively weak, unless you are very certain that Miles Turner will be available, and I don't think that there's any certainty to that. Not only that he'll leave the Pacers, but that he won't sign with another team. So there's certainly no guarantees there. Maybe they trade Duren as part of a deal

that just brings in a stopgap at the position, because, I mean, at this point, anything is going to be a significant improvement. And you have a team that's looking to make a step, And I just don't see a situation in which this front office will survey the terrain, so to speak, and conclude that there are not better options than Jalen Duren. This is not a situation in which you say, well, there are no better options because he's been so bad both last season and this season so far that that's just unlikely to be true. So in any case, unfortunate situation, Duren came into the league with a lot of potential.

There was a lot of excitement from watching him as a rookie. but at this point it really just increasingly and strongly looks like it's not going to work out and I think the front office needs to operate based on the pressing realities that are in effect at this stage. Or maybe he'll really turn it around and I'll end up looking like an idiot. Unfortunately, I don't think that's likely to happen. In any case, I hope you all enjoyed the listen. Hope you doing great. See you in the next episode.