Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 232: The Desmond Bane Trade (or: do the Pistons need to make a move themselves?) & Jalen Duren Season Review

Episode Date: June 16, 2025

This episode opines on the Desmond Bane trade to Orlando, how the Magic's current position compares to that of the Pistons, and whether or not the Pistons need to make moves of their own to keep up in the East, then reviews Jalen Duren's 2024-2025 season.

Welcome back, everybody. You are listening to another episode of Drive into the Basket. I'm Mike, and I hope you're all doing great today. So let's start off with today's big news, recording this on Sunday morning, which is that Desmond Bain was traded to the Orlando Magic, in exchange for four first round draft picks, one of which is Phoenix's 2026 first round pick, and as we all know, Phoenix isn't looking so great right now. And an additional pick swap. This is probably making GMs around the league face desk, because that's, you know, That is a gigantic package for the likes of Desmond Bain, who's a good player. But, I mean, paying that amount for, again, good score, but for a score who really doesn't play plus defense, averages about 20 points per game, which isn't really as impressive as it sounds, even though, again, Bain is a good score. Definitely a useful player.

But that is a gigantic package. It's just in draft capital. you know, they didn't send over any good prospects, excuse me, but in terms of just draft capital, that's a lot for a player of Desmond Bain's ilk. Also, well, I'll get to the implications for Orlando later, and how I think this rests within the context of the Pistons immediate future, but I imagine some GMs are looking at this and saying, oh my goodness, I hope they didn't just set the market, because again, that's a great deal of draft capital just for a guy like Bain.

I just continued to be a little bit shocked. This is not only the draft capital, it's also the opportunity cost for the magic, because now it's going to be very difficult for them to make a trade to address their other issue, or really any other issues, period. I mean, it's not just the draft capital that you expend. It's also, because of the Steppian rule,

which says that you need to be absolutely guaranteed a pick in, or excuse me, you need to be guaranteed that you will not be without a pick in consecutive future years, which means that you can only trade first round picks every other year, unless you have a guaranteed pick from another team in any of those years, then you can trade your own pick. You can use that to get around it a bit. That said, these days, picks are rarely traded out in the clear.

Typically, they're protected. And if they're protected, they don't qualify for Steppian if they're incoming because you're not guaranteed of a pick that year. So it's not just the draft assets. Yeah, it's also, and this would be the case for the Pistons, well, it's also the opportunity cost because, you know, now you have made that big trade. You have locked yourself out of really using draft capital anytime soon. So for the magic, they have a really pretty substantial need for a true lead handler.

And they obviously can't go out and get a particularly good one at this point. Maybe they can go out and, you know, pay a relatively affordable price for, I don't know, Anthony Simons or something like that. but the magic have a little bit of a weird team. Franz plays Franz Wagner, who's the best player on that team. Don't make the mistake of thinking it's Paulo Dengaro. Franz Wagner absolutely powers that team. Paulo has made the magic worse every year he's been there,

particularly in a sophomore year. Franz makes them immensely better. He is the best player on that team. I mean, no stint. Paulo looks more impressive because of the shots he makes, though he doesn't really make those shots efficiently. those really kind of twirly pull up mid-range shots. But Franz is just better.

He's better on defense. He's better on offense. He plays within the flow of the offense too critically. Paulo Boncaro hijacks the offense a bit. Don't get me wrong. He's got a lot of talent. He's got great size. But he likes to play his own way.

And that's disruptive in today's league. Unless you're just fantastic at it. I mean, if you're Kevin Durant, then you can just drive in and pull up and hit those pull-up unblockable pull-up twos at a high percentage, and then whatever, nobody cares. I mean, you're hitting those in the high 50s or the mid-50s. He's hit them in the 60s sometimes, which is insane. And we should ever underestimate how unbelievably good Kevin Durant is as a shooter. I mean, Steph Curry is the best perimeter shooter.

Kevin Durant certainly has an extremely strong argument for best all-around shooter at three levels. So, yeah, if you're Kevin Durant, you can do that, then cool. just take your pull-up twos all day long. The defense can't really do anything about it. And it's an efficient shot. So, okay, have fun. That'll do it. There are no complaints of any kind.

But Paulo, it's a different story because he loves his mid-range and he's bad at it. Like, his mid-range has a percentage of his field goals has been in the 30s and every season so far. And he has hit those shots in, you know, there's never even gotten to 40%, if I remember correctly, in terms of his field goal percentage from ever. from mid-range. Needless to say, that's terrible. The half-court efficiency threshold in the regular season is about one point per possession, so 50% on your twos. And so they're very inefficient shots. And also, he just likes to play heavily on the ball and do his own thing. And again, if you're Kevin Durant, you can do that. And some other guys can do that too. But Paulo cannot,

because if you're hitting those shots inefficiently, then your decision to hijack the offense is quite bad because you're robbing it of much better scoring opportunities. So it's a little bit complicated because Pollo is not a good offball player at all. This is one of my concerns going into the draft with him and why I thought he would be an absolutely horrendous pick. Excuse me with Cade. Just because, I mean, they're both heavily on ball players. Paulo at Duke. There was a lot of just difficult ISO offense, which worked just fine against NCAA defenders.

I really wasn't all that confident that it would translate super well to the NBA. It's been a mixed bag so far. But also, I mean, the guy's not a good perimeter shooter by any means. he was bad. He was poor again this year, you know, well below average. And he doesn't really have the offball athleticism to vertically space the floor be a good role man. So he's a very on ball player. And so how do you, maybe they just decided, you know, how do you even fit like a legit primary handler, you know, like a guard says, primary handler who's going to lead the offense. So I don't know, they're really banking. I feel like a great deal upon Paolo being that

reliable lead handler. There's also the fact that Franz is just not a particularly good shooter either. If I remember correctly, the magic this season, the regular season had the second lowest at field goal, excuse me, three point percentage is the team in the spacing era. And it was not by much. It was by, you know, they were ahead of the worst team of all the time, of the spacing era, excuse me, and I can't remember who that was by less than well under a percentage, percentage point, excuse me. So interesting trade for the magic.

I would say this is good for the pistons in the context of the east. because they just close themselves off from really making significant trades for the near future. You know, I don't think they'll ever trade Franz. I don't think they'll realistically can to trade Paulo. I mean, Franz, like I said, continues to be the most important member of that team. And so it's like you have like Anthony Black, who's not really looking great right now as a lead handler, a good defender. But you have Jalen Suggs, I guess you could trade, but is really more of a 3-indie guard. It's so useful, but that archetype is not really really.

great. You know, your 3-&D guys, you'd like them to be a little bit taller. Again, really sucks as a genuinely strong defender. But it's like, how does Orlando really improve their team to the championship level now? Because Desmond Bain, unless he finds another gear, I feel pretty confident. Though he really does improve them as a shooting team, I feel pretty confident that this is not the guy who's going to put them over the top. Now, in terms of the Pistons, like I know that there is a lot of disagreement that I see, do the Pistons run it back, or do they need to make a move now to keep up with the East? So I'll repeat my opinion that the Pistons are just in a bad position to make a trade right now because their young players are all unknowns. You all know how I feel about

Jalen Duren. He's actually the player I'm going to be reviewing. I'm going to get started with the player reviews in this episode, just so then I probably really won't say much about him for the rest of the offseason because you guys all know how I feel about him. But aside from Jalen Duren, whom I'm pretty low on, and I would guess his... his trade value around the league just because his defense is so drastically far behind is not particularly high. I think it's that for that same reason that I'd be flabbergasted if the front office gave him an extension this summer. So it's Ivy and Ron and Asar. Kate obviously is for each superstar tier already and still has room to grow. But those three, what do you have?

You have Ivy who has a unfortunately very incomplete track record. You have Asar who, I mean, so much depends on his shooting. And, you know, maybe the guy can, you know, break the mole with a little bit if he's good enough on defense and make some strides elsewhere on offense, but you're still really going to have to play around him in the postseason, you know, non-shooter on the perimeter. And do you really want your roster to be, you know, formed around a non-shooter in the postseason? I mean, here's the thing with the Tsar. If a Tsar shoot, it's weren't to shoot, I mean, the Pistons have no reason to ever trade the guy because it would just open up his game to a drastic extent. Because not only is, not only is he freed

from that tremendous weakness in today's NBA. But also, I mean, if you have to close out in Assar Thompson, you're screwed because there's even more than Ivy. There's an excellent, excellent chance he's going to get to the rim before anybody can get there, and he's more than smart enough to make the right pass if somebody does get there. Also, if you have to cover him closely at the three-point line, he's probably going to be able to blow by a lot of guys, especially if you get him a mismatch. I mean, his handle isn't the greatest, but that's not going to stop.

him if he gets a mismatch. And again, smart player can easily make the right pass and also can play more role man because it's not a situation where they can just put the center on him and then back off into the paint and he's tack into a pack paint. If a SAR can shoot, you can't sag off the center. Obviously, you're not going to defend him at the perimeter with the center. I mean, you can try, but that'd be a terrible idea. And so in that case, let's say you have Isaiah Stewart on the floor and you just spaced the floor from center. And Asar is, you know, absolutely capable of playing role man. Again, if the center comes to help, they'll make the right pass. But he's going to be defended by somebody who's,

you know, capable of actually defending him, a perimeter player. So it really just opens up a lot of options. Oh yeah. And if you have Isaiah Stewart there in that situation and it's shooting, I feel like it should not be understated how valuable shooting is for a center. I mean, the reason that traditional bigs are so disfavored is that, well, there's some non-traditional bigs like Shangoon who can't shoot. That's actually an issue. That was a pretty big issue. for him in the postseason, but most of them can. And that shooting, if you have a shooter at center, especially if he's, well, Isaiah's not a solid role man, but just a shooter at center, then let's say, you know, you're on a

pick and roll, the center pops. And if you have a guy who's very capable of getting into the interior, like a Cade or an Ivy, or even potentially Nassar, then the center is left with the choice of defending the rim against that guy and leaving the center open or defending the center at the the perimeter, and then the rim protection is drastically less. So it's a very, very nice tool to have. So in any case, Assar's value right now is not going to be particularly high because, I mean, I don't doubt that there are teams that are interested in him, because he really is, you know, an extremely intriguing talent. But he's kind of stuck in the middle right now. So trade value is

not going to be great. Maybe he can, I mean, if he reports in next season, and he's at 34 percent, then again, the business probably just keep him. You know, 34. percent from three. But let's say somebody spectacular becomes available. Okay, well, Asara's value is now a great deal higher. Ron Holland, same thing. Pretty raw. I feel like showed quite a bit of promise this season. You know, play is very gritty. And I feel like you see his touch in transition. And I feel like that can be replicated in the half court with some additional seasoning. I feel like he could be as much as like a 36 to 38 percent three-point shooter, even this year. Maybe that's a lot to hope for. But I think.

he'll get there. I'm confident in his shot. You know, it's, it needs some tweaks, but he's, you compare him to a SAR. I mean, he's drastically further ahead. And maybe that comparison, it's like, that doesn't mean much because virtually every perimeter player in the NBA and a lot of centers are drastically out of ASAR. But nonetheless, you know, Ron is very raw right now. And you give him, I mean, it could be even two-thirds of the season for any of these guys, you know, up until the trade deadline, and you have a lot more there. So the Pistons, I mean, they're a year behind the magic. You know, maybe you can point at the disaster that was last season,

the 14-win season, as I don't know if you feel like it really impeded development, whatever the case. The Magic were in the playoffs that season. So, yeah, the Pistons are, and just Franz came in very ready. Paolo is, again, has his issues, but, I mean, the Pistons in terms, you know, they've got those two guys. Suggs is certainly a viable starter at this point.

And the Pistons right now in terms of developed youth, it's just Kade. So they have high-ceiling talent, but that talent, and they are extremely development, excuse me, extremely dependent their future upon proper development of that talent. And

it's just a lose-lose situation making a trade with that talent unless it's a very, very advantageous trade. And that's, why do it? You know, I know that, I know but understandably people want to see more wins. I mean, wins are fun. And it was great getting into the piss

since being a much more competitive team this season. But you're trying to build the foundation for a championship team here. You're not trying to build the foundation for a second round team. So I think just the drastically likely your path is that they just run it back with a lot of the same veterans.

And you just hope the youth makes more of a step that is the most viable way by far for this team to take its steps toward being a contender. And again, I know that it'd be fun to see more wins, but why cap yourself? I mean, be patient, let these guys develop, take the most, you know, take the likeliest course to not only have more wins, but, you know, get to where everybody wants, you know, to where ultimately the team wants to be. So while I understand that might be a little bit boring to see the front office take that course, I feel like it's by far the most responsible course. So, yeah, and I just like to deal about. reiterate, I mean, this was a 43-win team, which was a huge improvement. That is a very, very average

team. You add another piece to this team. I understand that the East is weak. The Pistons were also, you know, outside of Ivy's injury and a star miss in the early, you know, the early stages of the season were incredibly healthy. They had the luxury, and I know this is never a fun thing to hear, but they had the luxury of, you know, especially in the second half of the season, almost constantly facing teams that were missing key players who were considerably better than Jade and Ivy at this point. And, you know, like just adding another player and, you know, basically it amounts to a win now trade. Yeah, that's, is that necessary going to get you to where you want to go? And do you have to keep up? That's another concept. And I would argue, no, why do you need to keep up by making a

trade when so much of your future depends right now upon high, the high ceiling youth, potentially high-ceiling youth you already have on your team. You know, the Pistons, again, are just a year behind teams like the magic. You don't need to win a lot more games next season. What you ultimately want is to win a championship three, though that'd be asking for a lot, four or five years down the line. So, and I've seen, you know, the argument's okay, the East is wide open. A lot went right for the Pistons this season.

And is this a finals team if you, like, make a big trade? Well, number one, it's something I think that gets lost in the idea, you know, the notion of making a big trade is that the pistons, well, they had a lot of holes this season already. I mean, you're, you know, in the event that you're robbing your team of depth and also cap-locking it, you know, in the context of the aprons, possibly going forward to the point where are you going to be able to feel the valuable supporting cast. Also, you kind of need like three, well, the Pacers are kind of giving lie to that, but the Thunder, I feel like aren't. And they're just, I feel like going to continue to get better as guys like Chet and Jason, maybe less so Jalen Williams, because he came in, I believe, as a third-year player, you know, three-year college player. Or was it four?

I can't remember. He was picked. I think he was 16th because people thought that, you know, when a guy comes in after four years, also one who's not particularly athletic, you know, you probably reach near your ceiling. And, of course, the Thunder nailed that pick. It was also another one of their Clippers picks. So, which means, you know, effectively. They got both Shea and Jalen Williams in that trade, which I always believe that was the right trade for the Clippers to make because they were getting Paul George and Kauai out of that trade because Kauai wanted his running mate.

He was going to come to the Clippers. But, yeah, I mean, a championship team you need to have, oh yeah, and Chep is the third player there. The championship team, I mean, the general model and a lot went won won't won't the east this season with the two best teams. teams in the postseason dealing with substantial injuries. I mean, the Celtics who, I know are often without their starting center. Because Porzangus is very injury prone, but we're without their starting center. And Al Horford was a year older. Jalen Brown played in a torn meniscus and had what, I mean, I haven't looked at every single one of a series,

but I would guess it was one of his worst series, if not his absolute worst series. He was terrible. And then you had Tatum, who, yeah, was in there until the end of game five. But that's a game they could have won and they could have gone on to win the series. And, of course, he ended up out for the rest of the series and probably next season two. And then the Cavaliers, Garland was injured. Mitchell was injured later in the series. And I think Alan missed a cup, at least one game, if I can remember correctly.

So a lot went, you know, just a lot went wrong with the two best teams in the league this season. So it's like the Pacers model, the Knicks did not deserve. The Knicks didn't even deserve to get past the piss since you put Isaiah Stewart in there. will forever believe that that would be a win for the Pistons in five or six games. You know, they didn't deserve to be in the conference finals. Even the Pacers got a little bit fortunate. They're certainly, they're putting up an excellent fight right now. And I continue to believe that OKC due to a combination of inexperience

and surprisingly poor coaching from Mark Daniel, who I think is a very good coach, who's right now getting destroyed by Rick Carlyle in that capacity. Yeah, I think they're just a much-backer. team than the Pacers. They're just not playing like it. But anyway, your model, you want to have, like, three strong scores. I mean, it's typically your model. It's best if you have, like, either two superstars or a star, they're a superstar and two stars. And then you still need to have a viable supporting cast. You know, how are the Pistons going to do that by just trading for, you know, one player and probably trading away some of their depth as well, like Tobias Harris,

but almost certainly need to go in order to match salaries. You're getting rid of at least one of the youth. And look at the Sons. Yeah, their team model sucks. But a top-heavy team, like, I guess they had a decent supporting, whatever. The Sons made a hash of it. So I won't use them as an example, but you need to have the right supporting gas. I mean, that's basically non-negotiable. You look at the Pacers, yeah, I think they got a little bit lucky, but they definitely have it, though they've only got really one superstar caliber player. But they've got, you know, a very well-rounded team outside of that. The Thunder, of course, are very deep. And I mean, the Celtics weren't super deep, but they were deep enough.

But again, the Celtics possibly had the best starting lineup, at least the most well-balanced starting lineup of the spacing era, at the point where it was almost tedious, even without poor zingas, they ran over the playoffs. So, yeah, additional complications there is that you just, you don't, you're not going to have the supporting cast. So basically, I think what it comes down to is, yeah, bad time for the Pistons to make a trade. It makes the most sense for them, in my opinion, for them to see how things play out with developing their players this season.

And hopefully you either get some, you know, you find that, you know, you've got a homegrown start, or at the very least, you find that these players develop in a way that, okay, let's either keep them or their trade value is substantially higher now. And, yeah, I'll just reiterate, I don't, I mean, I think a team like Orlando, and I don't think this trade was great for them is a year ahead. The Pistons, I just don't understand the concept of the Pistons needing to keep up, you know. They are not at a point where their prospect. their best prospects are capped out like Orlando's probably are. I don't think Suggs is getting better. I don't think Franz Impalo are getting substantially better.

Anthony Black, I just don't think has a very high ceiling. Yeah, this is the kind of trade you make when you need to make a trade to improve, and I just don't think the business is there right now. All right, so all that said, oh yeah, and talk of Kevin Durant, I mean, I think is kind of irrelevant because the Sons, unless they get a problem. package just absolutely knocks their socks off, are not going to trade him to a destination. He doesn't want to go to, most likely. But also, again, I don't think that Kevin Durant with the players, he probably need to trade

out. I just, I'm not sure he'd make the Pistons a contender even in a weak east. Who knows? But I think the likelihood of the Pistons even, you know, making a compelling offer, regardless of what the Sons would do is, meh. Who knows if Durant would even resign here after a year? Whatever, I think it's irrelevant. Enticing possibility, but ultimately irrelevant.

Let's talk other guys. And like Markinen, again, I keep almost calling him UC Markinen, who is like a Finnish NHL player from a long time ago. Excuse me. So this is Laurie Markinen, who plays with jazz. Had a downseason, but was quite good. the two seasons before that. Danny Aange, whose son now has come over from the Celtics and is the big decision maker over there, though Aange, I would guess, still has ultimately power

of its journey, just the final say, rather, is Danny Ainsh sets a really high price. And he set a high price on Markinen. He set a high price on Kessler. And Danny Aange is notorious for not lowering his price. You know, that's come to bite him a little bit. Because at times you just, okay, you don't want to give us, you don't want to give me what I'm, what I want, okay, well, I'm going golfing. You can let me know if that changes. And sometimes opportunities have passed him by. And even with, you know, back when the Celtics had a bunch of picks, if I remember correctly, he just had a price he was willing to pay for the likes of Jimmy Butler, and he just didn't want to go past that. But realistically, don't take my word for it. I'm not 100% sure

about that. Yeah, so forget I said that, I guess. I don't want to say things that I'm not 100% certain of, and that was some time in the past. But in any case, when Danny Inch set the price in one of his own players, he rarely compromises. So this would be an expensive trade for the Pistons. And again, it's not just giving up the picks. It is also paying the opportunity cost of, okay, now we can't make a trade that may have made more sense for us. So let me tell you what Markinen is. He is a jumbo elite catch-and-chew shooter, who does not really create much of his own offense. Like, you look at his stats, once he gets to two dribbles,

I mean, his, is, that field goal percentage falls, you know, down well into the mid-40s, which is inefficient. Again, around 50% is your half-court efficiency threshold. So he's, what he's good at, again, a lead catch-and-shoe guy who's very, very difficult to block. It doesn't really even take many pull-up threes, so just a catch-and-shoot guy who is quite good at attack and closeouts and can exploit some mismatches down low. Because again, the guy's a genuine seven-footer.

It's pretty hefty and is in the realm of average on defense. Certainly not a plus defender, but I'd say in the realm of average. He's not a liability. So he's best suited as a number three guy. You know, you only really want to trade for the likes of marketing and if you really got like two genuinely good on-ball creators. and who knows, maybe the Pistons will find that with Ivy. Then again, maybe you have to trade Ivy to get Markinen in the first place.

But Markanin, I think, is the kind of guy you trade for when you need somebody to put you over the top. I don't think the magic even looked at him because you've already got Franz and Paolo at the four positions. But does it make sense for the Pist? Again, I continue to think it makes no sense for the Pistence to make a trade right now at all. Again, wait until wait and see where you stand, whether that's the deadline or next season. And, you know, re-evaluate then next summer, excuse me, and re-evaluate then. and you know more about where your youth are standing, and maybe they've increased their trade value.

Yeah, the Pistons, yeah, the Pistons just not there yet. Markinen, yeah, you can say, well, K, it's great at getting guys open. And, you know, yeah, drawing attention and getting guys open shots. At this point, yeah, I mean, save it. Don't pay that opportunity cost. Marken is the kind of guy you want to trade for when he's going to put you over the top. Is he really going to offer a ton more than Malik Beasley, for example, at this stage? Beasley, who maybe he'll repeat the season, maybe he won't,

but beyond him just being an excellent veteran presence for a young team, is also, you know, it was at an absolutely spectacular off-ball shooting season. So same stuff. Moving on. I just want to revisit this talk of adding somebody a backup power forward and just reiterates a couple of things. Number one, the Pistons, I mean, their minutes are almost entirely spoken for

if you bring back Schroeder and you bring back Beasley. I think that's the first time I've actually deliberately pronounced Dennis's last name correctly, which I suppose I should do. So if you bring back those guys and I continue to think it is critical to have a backup point guard, the way that the Pistons went into this season with just Cade and Ivy, I think was far from preferable. That was very unusual, in my opinion, kind of rash, because, I mean, it's just all downsides.

You can't play Cabe with Ivy, which you'd like to do. you have to stagger them. Ivy is not ideal for that role. He never has been. I don't think it's a role he even particularly seems to enjoy. And by all accounts, he doesn't really consider himself a lead handler. And also, you're one injury away from having one handler on the team, which is what happened to the business this season. I don't need to talk more about Marcus Sasser. He's not it. This is a completely bizarre pick. I'll just, I'll say that one final time that, who knows, maybe I'll mention it later. So again, not putting the seal on that one, but I'll say it, I'll summarize here when we're done, that it was a weird pick because he was a fourth-year player. He was a four-year player who, as a fourth-year

player, could not really break down defenses and score at the rim was not really a viable handler against NCAA defenses that were, like, multiple universes worse than he'd face at the NBA level. And therefore, he was, and he can't, absolutely can't do it at the NBA level. So, unless he just becomes an elite, you know, pull-up mid-range shooter, which, again, is very, very rare in this league. So, you know, ultimately, if you're just a shooting specialist, you want to be, I mean, if you're an undersized shooting specialist, it costs you a lot on defense. And with the NBA's value floor being, I know I, I harp on this a lot, but it's true, being unbelievably high and, you know, in rising every season, he just falls below it.

But, yeah, he's not the handler of the business need. Schroeder was, Schroeder was very good for this team. Just, even as just a secondary handler who could just handle the ball when Cabe wasn't on the floor, also a guy who could close games with Cade. And yeah, you have Ivy, but having Schroeder who was a veteran was very, very nice. And so in these situations, it was not defenses being able to say, oh, well, Cade's in the four. We know he's going to handle the ball. We can just throw everything at him because nobody else can do it.

I mean, he's very helpful there. And just having two guys capable playing weed handlers is very valuable. Again, it's pretty much a necessity, actually, if you want to be a winning team. I'll reiterate that it was very rare, very unusual for the business to go into the season without two of them. So bring back Schroeder, please. I think that's very important. And then you bring back Beasley. And okay, well, Ivy and Cade and Schroeder are taking up the vast majority of the guard minutes. Beasley would probably split his minutes between there and small forward, which he has done in the past. And then your forward minutes are in their vast majority

going to Tobias and Asar and Holland. The Pistons will absolutely want to get significant minutes to with Saar and Holland. And obviously the center minutes are already spoken for. So that leaves you like probably a maximum of about like 10 minutes for a backup power forward. I understand it's not really ideal that the business are going into the regular season with not great size of power forward. Though Ron Holland, if he packs on some also, I talked about this last week. It was the week before. Like Asar and Hollands could, again, the majority of power forwards in this league, starting power forwards, or a lot of them are not huge anymore. So, and they're both very athletic guys who can make it work. but players have to want to come here in free agency, which means they generally want minutes.

Players who have enjoyed substantial roles in the past and are now told that, okay, well, maybe you'll get more minutes if there are injuries are unlikely to say yes, players want to play. And often they're playing for the next contract. And, you know, if they can get, you know, substantial rotation rules elsewhere playing 20 plus minutes per game. Or they're at 10 minutes and maybe more if there are injuries, that's a pretty easy choice for them. Like you think about Tori and Prince. I know I brought this up, but it's like, okay, come to the Pistons and play 10 minutes per game or go someplace else in a contender and pay like 20 to 25. Easy choice. So again, there's also Fontechio who had a bad season. Seems like it was his toe.

Maybe it comes back next season is quite a bit better. Now, if the Celtics, for example, wants to get themselves off of, you know, four years of Sam Hauser's contract, it's like, okay, well, you know, yeah, he had a significantly larger role over there. But that's great depth to have at a pretty affordable price of what's well under 10% of the cap and it's just going to grow smaller, you know, in terms of its percentage of the cap. But adding somebody in a free agency would almost certainly come at the cost of either Schrooter or Beasley, probably Schroeder. And I just don't think that's a good idea.

I think it would be a terrible idea to go into the next season without a viable backup point guard. The only others will reiterate Chris Paul. unlikely to come here and it's also just such an injury risk at that age. And then Tyos Jones and DeAngelo Russell, who the pistons probably can't afford without renouncing Beasley as well. And then Ty, yeah. So anyway, it all goes back to the same thing, though, that this team isn't ready to contend right now. So, you know, you don't really necessarily need to be talking about plugging holes like, oh, we need this if we want the pistons to, you know, to really compete next season. so much still depends upon development.

Also, 10-man rotations are very rare. I know that Indiana is doing it. I know that OKC is doing it. That's because these are a lot of teams with young players who are, you know, drafted. And in that case, I mean, sure, they might be a little bit unhappy that they're not getting minutes, but it's just a situation where you have a lot more leeway.

Also, you're not paying them all that much in the vast majority of cases. So it does also have salary implications. Again, with respect to the aprons. So, okay. All that said, let's move on to talking about Jalen Duren. And again, I just kind of want to knock this out of the way, as I've spent a crap lot of time on him, talking about him pure and elsewhere.

So Duren, just for, I want to contextualize his career. So he came in as a raw rookie, 18 years old, much like Andre Drummond did. And as a rookie, he was raw on offense. And he came in with the notion that he would be a strong defensive player. I might struggle on offense. So he was raw on offense, struggled on layups, struggled from a free throw line. And basically, if he couldn't dunk the ball, you know, he was trouble. I mean, he was a good role man, a good vertical spacer, you know, because on the roll,

he got the ball underneath the basket. He's probably dunking it. And he was, you know, kind of poor, raw, but potentially promising defender. It was always going to be better in drop, but had a decent lateral mobility, you know, enough that he wasn't a liability on switches. You know, he, you know, if he, you know, if he, you know, he. had to switch at the three-point line. You know, he wasn't Isaiah Stewart, who was elite on switches,

thanks to just his basketball IQ and his excellent lateral mobility and very quick feet. But it wasn't a liability, and that's important for a center, particularly traditional center, because you've got to find a lot of value on defense there because of your shortcomings on offense, inherent shortcomings on offense. So you could kind of see it. It's like he struggled to provide defensive value in the way of, you know, it's some, you know, defensive IQ is a big deal. It's often what separates, you know, the bad from the okay, the okay from the good and the good from the great, just the knowledge of, you know, not only to play on-ball

defense or defend, you know, protect the rim, but also to really help in preventing plays from even developing. And he couldn't really do that. But do you think, okay, you know, we'll see going forward if this is a question of lack of acumen or it's a question of just you need seasoning. So he came back next to the next season. and he'd made a ton of progress on offense. I mean, that was genuinely impressive, how much progress he had made on offense. And on defense, you know, the Pistons looked pretty good in their first three games,

and then, of course, everything fell apart. And not long after that, you just stopped trying. He had a coach who was never going to hold him accountable. He just decided to feel like playing defense. And the guy finished the season, you know, averaging 14 and, you know, 11 and a half rebounds, two and a half assists, and was arguably the worst starting center in the league. He was, again, this traditional.

big. It was a, you know, who the season before was still a minus defender. And just decided to stop trying. It became comically, like just absolutely truly horrific on defense. So he admitted over the summer that he had just, in his words, not brought it. I need to bring it on defense. And then came in and, for the most part in the first third of the season or so, sorry, excuse the throw clearing, just came, it just didn't care. And as a result, again, was one of the worst starting centers in the league. And then at some point decided to pick it up and as a result, you know, was significantly a better player over the course of the season. Though I'd like to reiterate that it was more aversion than progress. It wasn't O'Duron made a lot of strides. If you remember

his rookie season, he got back to, you know, about where he was in his rookie season, minus the fact that now he couldn't switch because his lateral mobility due to injuries or whatever was gone. So he had to be protected and drop coverage at all times and that's a huge hit to any center's value on defense at least. Yeah, obviously. I'm talking about defense. So, you know, in that context, you look at it, and it's not, oh, he made such strides, we can hope he makes more strides. It's, well, he reverted, and he's made very little progress defensively since his

rookie season in terms of his acumen, just being able to make the proper reads and decisions and reactions on a split second level at the most difficult and also most impactful defensive position. And, you know, again, also providing that additional defensive value and just knowing how to use his, you know, his length and his positioning to close off other opportunities that haven't developed yet or, or haven't, don't develop, you know, keeping them from developing into scoring chances. So in that capacity, he remains remarkably poor. And we saw, we saw that in the way of him often, like, severely struggling against good teams. And all season, he's severely struggled

against good teams on defense. And again, the offensive value traditional centers can provide, even Duren, who once again, I'll say it again, and this has been the case since last season. He didn't really make that much improvement this season. He was just playing under an offense. He was just playing under a much better coach. Very strong finisher. You know, it remains an elite vertical spacer. And, you know, is solid on the short roll.

Again, that's by the standards of traditional bigs, but solid as a short roll passer. Sets good screens. And, you know, he and Duren were, he and Kate, excuse me, were one of the prime, you know, the premier combos in terms of. of all the oeops in the league. And he can put the ball on the floor a little bit against opposing centers, though things can often go wrong if he tries to put the ball on the floor a little bit too much. But again, that's drastically lesser value than a guy who can shoot.

And a lot of those guys who can shoot are often very capable of creating offense, too, and that just adds such another dimension to your offense. So there exists at a break point at which Isaiah Stewart was just a better option, because though he provides quite a bit less on offense, and even West because Bickerstaff wasn't using him as a shooter. He was just so much better on defense that after a point, you know, depending on how good the other team was, it just made more sense to have Isaiah Stewart on the floor.

And kind of the playoffs were a preeminent example of Duren's struggle and struggles on defense because he was protected from Carl Anthony Towns by Bickerstaff just not even bothering. Instead, putting Tobias Harris, who had a four-inch and 25 pounds disadvantage and isn't a very good defender himself, hiding Durin, the vast majority of the time, on a non-shooter, which also should have enabled him to play better defense because he just said much less in the way of responsibility,

much less to track and could hang out in the interior. And also going up against a bad offensive coach. And Tom Tibido, Thibodeau, I always forget, to how to pronounce his name, whatever, he's fired now. And a bad offensive coach who didn't try to attack him at all. And he still played bad defense. He still provided very little defensive value. he was characteristically late,

and this is what his poor defensive IQ does. I mean, it's not only that he can't provide that additional defensive value, but he's chronically late and very mistake-brown. Yeah, also protected additionally, as always, consistently and drop. Yeah, and despite all of these positive factors, he was still, you know, a defensive liability largely, particularly when he got switched under towns who torched him, you know, when he had to match up against towns because you can't protect him at all times.

And I think that if you'd seen him go up against the Pacers, I think he would have gotten slaughtered because you're up against five shooters and a brilliant offensive coach in Rick Carlisle who in Durant can't defend five out. I mean, that is he struggles enough against good teams that have traditional bigs. You know, you put him up against five shooters and his margin for error doesn't exist already. And suddenly he has to, again, his defensive vacuum in making those reads and decisions on the split second basis, you absolutely have to. He just doesn't have it. You put him on there with five shooters. And you'd also have a coach who would be consistently attacking him and would be absolutely taking advantage of his weaknesses,

you know, exploiting the fact that he has to be used in drop, which was great for Jalen Brunson because he had a ton more latitude than the pick and rule. And I think it would have been very, very ugly. And the pistons, you know, do in part to that and part to other factors, probably it could have been a suite. So as far as Dern across the course of the season, yeah, he did improve in terms of his performance. deal because the Pistons went from having a terrible starting center who was certainly going to continue to get opportunities, though as minutes were inching down and stewards were inching up, to having, you know, a somewhat decent starting center who could certainly, it was certainly, if you had the opportunity to just stomp on bad teams, he was, you know, certainly decent enough

and in some cases good, against decent teams less good and against good teams bad. And unfortunately, you do take in those limitations against good teams and the fact that in the postseason teams exploit every week as they can find. At this point, he, you know, even though, you know, again, was a strong rebounder and, you know, a very strong finisher and, you know, again, a solid baster in the short role, it's just, you know, if you're getting worse and worse as the quality of the opposition gets better because your defense is so bad, then you are not a violation. starting center in the postseason. You know, that's just how it is.

You're not a guy you want to say, okay, well, we'll get you at a decent rate because you don't want that player on the floor on the postseason if you want to win. And so during season, I have to dock him significantly for the fact that he just didn't give a crap during the third, during the first third, third, excuse me. When you consider over the last two seasons, he's actually maybe tried hard in like 60 games, that off button is a concern. And there's one third of the season in which he was because of his own shortcomings, like just mentality alone is providing terrible value for this team.

And though he went on to provide significantly better value, wasn't really progress. It was just more, well, I guess that wouldn't figure into an evaluation of the season. It was just more, okay, we reverted to what we were, you know, on offense last season and on defense as a rookie. But just his performance was just so bad against good teams. And then again, in the postseason that, you know, I know this will be possibly an unpopular opinion, but, you know, I'd give the guy like a C-minus in the season.

Because, like, great, you can stomp, you know, you can help the piss and stomp on bad teams. Once you get to decent teams, you're quite a bit less useful. Once you get to good teams, I mean, the guy had three good, like three, you know, good games against good teams in the last three months of the season. So, you know, just getting to an extension. I mean, you all know I love to talk about just the overall context of the NBA, the science of the NBA, the value equation, of the NBA. And I've seen some pretty wild figures in terms of, oh, what should we give Jayland, you know, what should his extension look like? Let's go back to Andre Drummond. This was a very different time in the league when, you know, the value floor was nowhere near as high. You know,

it did not have to be anywhere near as scientific as, you know, oh, these are the requirements, you know, to provide good value. He went on to get a max, you know, max contract because back then it's like, okay, well, traditional bigs could make, you know, a huge impact. And here's a guy who is, this might sound familiar, you know, an excellent athlete for the position, you know, very physically imposing, an elite rebounder. And, you know, in his case, you know,

who has defensive potential. And in his case, you know, hopefully he gets it together on offense because, you know, he's very raw, pretty poor finisher. And, yeah, bad, obviously bad from the free pro line, like, until he improved, like, six, you know, after six seasons.

Was it after five seasons? worst of all time. But back then, it's like, okay, well, who cares that he's a traditional big? I mean, nobody really cared back then. Hadn't had the spacing revolution. You know, it wasn't that what it grew into, which is that you're a traditional big. Now you come with an actual cost on offense. These days, I don't know when the next time is that you will ever see a traditional big in any situation get a max contract. Rudy Goberra may have been the very last because the traditional bigs have a very difficult road to value because offense is so big because the fact that they are so limited on offense is such a weakness. I mean, to get a max, the next

max contract for a traditional big, you know, this guy would need to be like a truly generational defender on the level of Rudy Gobert, but also have considerably more of an interior skill set than Rudy Gobert. But to have that sort of skill set, he wouldn't be a traditional big. I mean, you need to have a significantly better defensive skill set, offensive skill set. So you just don't see it. I mean, your number of centers of traditional bigs who are even paid $20 million or above, you got Jared Allen, you got Nick Claxton, you have Rudy Gobert and you have Isaiah Hartenstein. Gobert was paid kind of because they had to, though he was still paid a great deal less than the max he was eligible for. Hartnstein was paid $28 million, you know, overpaid to a degree to get, because the Thunder had the cap space.

They wanted, you know, they wanted him, and they overpaid him to get him away from. from New York. Claxton arguably kind of overpaid. Jared Allen, I think he's going up to about $28 million in a couple seasons. But these are all guys who, you know, Hartnstein starting center for a 68 win team, I think, and a team that's now two wins away from winning the finals.

Jared Allen, very capable starting center for an excellent team. Claxton, a little bit different, but, you know, he suffered a pretty bad back injury. was not so great this season. But, you know, all of these, and then Goberra, of course, all of these guys, very strong defenders.

And I'll harp on this one more time. Because you're so limited inherently on offense as a traditional big, you have to have, provide good defensive value. Literally every center making more than five, any of a non-rarchy contract, center making more than $5 million next season right now

is a plus defender. You know, just to go back. Again, like Andre Drummond's max contract, if it were five years later, like today, if he were on like season four of the max contract, it would back then it was just like, well, he can sometimes when he's really trying, provide solid value there.

These days it would be considered a joke and a massive overpay, you know, that this guy is on a max deal. So, yeah, you've got to be pretty, you got to be a pretty good defender as traditional big to get paid in today's week. So you look at Duren and, you know, say, oh, well, you got probably get $25 million.

It's like, well, that would make him, you know, a little bit more than that. Next season, that would make him the third highest-paid traditional big after Harton signing in Gobert, despite being drastically worse on defense than any of the highly paid traditional bigs. And worse on defense than the guys you go all the way down to Gogabat's, or I can remember somebody else is making only $6 million. I can't remember who. So maybe it's more than $6 million rather than $5 million because precious to chew is paid $6 million and he's definitely, well, I guess he's an average defender, but sucks so much on offense that It's not worth playing him in the postseason.

Also, he was, you know, basically third string center. They just didn't need him. And Thibito doesn't really like playing from the bench. So playing guys from the bench. So, yeah, it's just, it's a terrible value equation, especially for a guy who has made no progress, no measurable progress since his rookie season and remains drastically behind on defense.

Does the front office, I mean, why would they pay a significant money to that guy? That would be a bad contract. Again, yeah, the cap is going up and up, but this is not a guy who's right now, this is not a guy who can provide you value in the postseason or against good teams in the regular season. So you wait. And, you know, if you can't find better opportunities, and I know there are murmurs about the Pistons looking at guys like Turner or Nas Reid, though, who knows what position he would play here.

Again, these are not likely. I mean, Turner, the Pacers are willing to pay the luxury tax for the first time in a while. And he's a starting center for, you know, regardless of, you know, circumstances, this is a team that has won two games in the finals was in the conference finals last year. and there's no reason for him to leave him the Pistons can't really make a knock your socks off offer. So, yeah, you'll explore opportunities, and if you can't find any good opportunities, you go into the next season and hope he can make that improvement, but the likelihood of him making that colossal of an improvement, especially with the switch difficulties, but even if those weren't there,

with the issues with defensive IQ, which at this point look an awful lot, more like they're just lack of acumen rather than lack of seasoning after three big-minute seasons. two of those under very good developmental coaches. I mean, it's not just a matter of watching tape. Some players just don't have it. For the Pistons, recent examples are Wiseman and Bagley. Some guys just don't have it. This is a skill being able to make those split-second reads decisions and reactions

and just know where to be and what to do. So the probability is low. Why not wait until next season? He makes a significant leap. He's not going to get, you know, like I would say like $25 million is the most he's plausibly going to get because it's not like he's great on offense. He's still a traditional big. He's only good by the standards of traditional bigs. So, yeah, I'll just go back to my grade here. Yeah, I'd give J. Win Duren on the season, like a C-minus. It's just that first third of the season in which he was terrible,

and that was entirely his fault because he just didn't feel like trying. That off switch is another a concern, I'm sure, for the front office. Because if a guy has an off switch, it's a problem. And again, Duren has like a 50 to 60 game sample size over the last two seasons of actually trying. And, you know, there are guys like Drummond, for example, who got their extensions. And then just didn't really care all that much. Drummond was bad in his first season after his extension because he checked out halfway through the season. He wasn't so great before that. He checked out halfway through the season.

He was terrible the rest of the way. Drummond who didn't, when he, and again, I'm not going to stray into talking too much about him. but when he decided he didn't care, he was genuinely pretty bad player at times. He was a terrible defender who'd often hijack the offense and was very low efficiency for a center, or particularly for traditional big. Yeah. So that is a risk you run. But also, I think just Duran himself is just, yeah, it's just not all that good of a player at the moment.

And if his defense doesn't get there, then he won't be. You know, notwithstanding, you know, the athleticism and the dunks and the pick and roll play. And the NBA, you have to, I mean, value versus salary is absolutely critical, but also just having a starting center who can provide the value that you need in the postseason. I mean, that's the operative factor there, regardless of salary. It's just that right now he is not a viable starting center for a postseason team. So, yeah, C-minus, I expect he'll be on the team next season, because I don't think the pissens will find necessarily a better opportunity.

I think his leash will be significantly shorter. Isaiah Stewart may end up playing significantly more time. Duren's leash got shorter as the season went on. Bickerstaff did throw some games by keeping Duren out there, presumably for hopeful with development purposes, when he was just completely incapable of playing defense against good teams. We saw in the final game against the Thunder, Isaiah Stewart was the one he turned to. I firmly believe also he would have been the one whom Bacerstaff turned to in the postseason

if he had been healthy to close games or just when Duren was getting torn up. which happened quite a bit. And, oh, and one final thing I'll reiterate about the Knicks series. They took Duren out of, you know, out of the equation on offense for a lot of the time. And that's just a reality with traditional bigs. Not only can they not shoot, but they just can't do much for themselves. That's just another one of their limitations. So, yep, C minus.

Just back to what I was saying, unless they find a better opportunity, I believe he'll be on the team next season. And they will see where they stand at the deadline. If he has not made a great deal of progress on defense, then, and barring him making this sort of prodigious offensive leap that we really haven't ever seen from a traditional big, they're going to have to evaluate options. You don't pay a guy who can't be a valuable starting center for you against good teams,

and therefore in the postseason where his shortcomings on defense are just going to come out that much more. So in any case, that'll be it for this episode. Before I end, just want to once again thank those of you who reach out with compliments and supports, and just to acknowledge that you enjoy listening to the show. It really means the world to me. So really very, very sincere.

Excuse me. Very, very sincere. And from the bottom of my hair, thank you. That really is very wonderful of you to do. Yeah, so that'll be for this episode. Hope you're all doing great. Thank you for listening. I'll catch you in the next episode.