Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 90: Should the Pistons Trade Jerami Grant for Another Lottery Pick? Plus March Madness Check-in

Episode Date: March 23, 2022

This episode discusses the Portland Trail Blazers' reported (by Shams Charania) interest in acquiring Jerami Grant in the offseason and Saddiq Bey's fifty-point game and prospective ceiling, and checks in on notable prospects after the first two rounds of March Madness. 

Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Drive Into the Basket, part of the Basketball Podcast Network. I am Mike, joined by Tommy, and we are recording just shortly after a huge, huge tank loss against a Trailblazers team that somehow won, despite missing, I think, about $100 million worth of salary. Yeah. Yeah, I'm tired, man. This last stretch is exhausting. We did this last year, and for whatever reason, I was okay. I know, like, 10 games left. You got a little antsy. this one, I'm right there with you this time. Like these close losses, maybe it's because we're further along the tank race. I think we're still third right now with Oklahoma City right on our tail.

But it's just exhausting, man. I'm tired of it. I don't want to do this again next year. I feel like if we get lucky in the lottery or we just get a good player from wherever in this draft, I feel like, you know, tank standings, lottery position, all that stuff is going to matter a lot less. I think they're just going to see how it goes. but this season, it's become pretty obvious that they also value the lottery standings. You know, Saban Lee, Luca Garza getting extended minutes.

I'm happy to see that. But at the same time, you know, when you go against Portland, who is, like you said, tanking very hard as well. Well, it's not just tanking. I mean, they have an incredible list of injuries, like incredible. And they sat Josh Hart today for whatever reason and still managed to win, which I'm guessing didn't make them too happy. That's, you know, a positive boss. The business have 10 games left.

the Blazers are now eight wins ahead. They might not win another game for the rest of the season. So that's just one small little added bit of control margin. But I agree. It's getting exhausting. It's been exhausting for me for a few weeks. I had actually gone into the season hoping that the Pistons, I felt that I figured that they were just going to go in and see what happened.

You know, whatever would happen would happen and I'd be okay with it. Maybe that was a little bit of a number realistic expectation because I really wouldn't have been happy with the Pistons just falling right in the middle of the lottery. But it's clear that they didn't really plan on competing to any degree, I think, just based on the roster moves like Olinic, for example, not having an athletic big until they traded for Bagley and so on and so forth, whatever the case. It was absolutely exhausting down the stretch from me last season. There was a huge sigh of relief for me when that final buzzer sounded on the season finale against Miami, and it's probably going to be the same thing for me this year. So, yeah, I was excited for the season, but I'm ready for it to be over, provided it ends well. Yeah, this is, I mean, the Pistons are actually playing decent ball outside of tonight against the Blazers, but I think they're close to 500 since the All-Star break.

I think especially if you include that win prior to the All-Star break against Boston, like they're playing much better. The offense looks better. They're shooting a better ball. But again, you know, we've come this far, we're this close to the top of the standings. It's a little tough sometimes. I'm not unhappy about all the wins, but, you know, we're, four and six in our last 10, so was Orlando.

And then there's teams like Oklahoma City who have lost 10 straight. And that kind of, that does kind of stress you out a little bit, maybe, depending on where you stand in terms of how you value lottery picks and, or lottery standings and all that. Well, you're three and seven, actually. I think, well, actually, no, four and six still. You're right. Yeah. No, it's, it's just brutal. Yeah.

I mean, Oklahoma City is shamelessly taking again, 10 in a row, like I said. Portland's, I don't think Portland even, like they're missing Simons and everybody else. I mean, they're going to be bad, period. Over the last two weeks, they have defensive rating like 123, which is incredible. And yeah, so, yeah, I'm just, I'm ready for it to be over. And it sucks because I was really looking forward to the season. A lot of things went wrong. And I'm confident that it's like you and I, we are all about the patient rebuild, the long-term tank.

I know you won it three years. I don't think you really want three years anymore. I want it two. this will be two. I'm starting to reconsider that plan because, again, this is, it's so tiring, dude. Yeah, true it is. All right, so moving on, what we're going to discuss today. We're going to talk about some news that came out today about Jeremy Grant being linked to

Portland in terms of interest in trade probably around draft time. Talk about Sadiq Bay's 50 piece and his future. I'm going to do an update on the prospects of March Madness that we spoke about in the last episode. Hopefully get along to that tankathon sim we talked about last time, which would not make any of us very happy, but it's an interesting scenario. And then look at some listeners submitted questions. Consider following us on Twitter at To the BasketPod. We always loved to hear from listeners questions, feedback, ideas for future episodes and the like. And finally, I want to give a quick shout-outs to Jason, a listener of ours from Australia. Best wishes to you and Lauren on your fifth

anniversary. So let's talk about Jeremy Grant. Yeah, so Shams dropped his inside pass earlier today, and he talked about something that a lot of Pistons fans and Blazor fans have kind of been anticipating, you know, especially since they made that move at the deadline that opened up a pretty substantial, I forget what the term is called. It's, what's the, it's that thing that allows them to absorb Jeremy. Yeah, the trade exception.

It may or may not come into play based on some cap mechanics. I don't really feel like doing in my head right now, but nonetheless. Yeah, but the interest is there because Shams today, he talked about how the Portland Trail Blazers are expected to seriously pursue Pistons forward Jeremy Grant on the offseason. And he's talked about how the Blazers had the Pelicans' 2022 first round draft pick. And the Blazers will explore offering the pick should it fall between pick five and 14 in this year's draft. That's the protected range. So it's protected by New Orleans between one and four and from 15 plus. Yep.

And I made the prediction that the Pistons would probably add another pick in this draft. I didn't think it would be this high. I definitely didn't think that Jeremy Grant's value would get you pick this high. And I don't think it would in an ordinary draft, but I think as we both come to kind of find out, this draft is not, we don't, neither of us like it that much. But again, you know, it's still, you know, a lot of potential. And that's still interesting.

And that pick, that Pelicans pick right now, it sits at 9th. And within this past, they also drop the news that Zion Williamson will not return the season. So I've heard that. Hopefully, yeah, that hopefully, you know, bodes well for that pick if it does end up coming our way. Yeah. Definitely it's, yeah, I mean, I've grown to really, really be kind of resentful. draft class. This is another year of tanking. And it's just, it's just not that exciting. I think it could turn out to be weaker than the 2020 draft class, which was not very strong as far as superstar

talent, even talent in the lottery right now. And who knows? I mean, I kind of feel like Anthony Edwards would have a really solid shot of going number one in this draft and MLMELA ball too. So yeah, definitely. In any case, yeah, so that is an interesting scenario. Grants, his season has really been the opposite of what it was last season. He has really come alive down the stretch for better or worse in terms of the Pistons place in the standings. He's been actually very good over the last month or so, like since around the end of February, about 22 points on really excellent shooting 49% from the field, 44% from 3 is getting into the line more about five and a half attempts per game. So yeah, I suppose it boils down to where the Pistons fall, I think, in the draft.

order will determine what happens. I don't think it's out of the question that Jeremy Grant stays on the roster if the Pistons draft a guard, for example, because, like, there are a lot of forwards the Pistons might be looking at. I see some merit to Grant staying on the team. I mean, I've kind of come around on that a little bit. If coached correctly, I mean, he can be, you know, I think still think he can be the number three guy in a contender.

Also, he provides a really necessary shot of athleticism in a starting lineup that the pistons would need to replace somehow. It sounds a little weird that that's a factor, but it is a factor. Yeah, if you were 100% agree with you. Yeah, if you were like three or four years younger, then I would be all about, you know, keep the guy, why not? Yeah, I was, you know, when I was, when I saw this article drop, I immediately went to see where this Pelicans pick would drop, and I looked at some of the guys projected in that range. And again, I don't want to, you know, disbarred this draft class too much. You know, you can't predict exactly what these guys' careers are going to look like, but the archetypes that are there, not a lot of great fits.

You're talking about guys either with limited upside or guys with high upside who can't shoot. It's very wing heavy, but it's wings who aren't projected as good three-point shooters, and that's exactly what you want around Cade. There are a few names there. Maybe we'll get to that later. And then there's one other detail from the Sean's article that I wanted to mention, and it just says that if the pick does not fall in that range, that 5 to 14 and convey to Portland this offseason, the organization's, that's Portland's package, falls behind competing teams that

are chasing Detroit's versatile forward. So implies that there are other teams looking to trade for Grant. So it's not just Portland. And maybe we do have a little bit of a bidding more there. So that's good for us. Yeah. I mean, Grant's a good player. It's been frustrating for the Pistons at times. He's definitely improved late, not just as a shooter, but also making the right pass. I mean, he and Sadiq Bay went from almost unbearably black holeish. Like they would not pass the ball. just take bad shot after bad shot after bad shot. That's what a black hole means. I mean, just a guy who just attempts a bunch of bad offense instead of passing the ball.

And now, you know, I don't think his core division is ever going to be great, but he now is much more, has a much greater propensity to make the right move, put it that way. So that that's been good to see. And again, valuable player, guy who can play defense, guy who can probably give you a solid 20 points a game, particularly if he's not being asked to be, you know, your first option, though he's not really been the first option for a while now. So, yeah, there's value, definitely.

And this free agent class is very weak, like really weak. Just to review what we got there, your two big name free agents, Kyrie and Bradley Beal. And who knows if Kyrie will go anywhere, Bradley Beal, also, who knows? And then you've got your three restricted free agents, Anthony Simons, getting maxed by Portland, Miles Bridges, almost undoubtedly getting matched by Charlotte. And eight, and I don't think he's going anywhere either.

And then your next best free agent from that class was going to be Joe Engels until he got injured. But that's how weak it was. Well, arguably Joe Engels. So trades will be big for teams who don't do as well as they wanted in the playoffs and are looking to add a piece. Now, what teams can offer is a different story. And if Portland has a pick, that's like number nine, that's probably the best the pistons are going to get.

Now, under what circumstances would you want to keep Grant? I think it kind of boils down to what you said about if the pistons kind of fall on the draft and they end up taking a guard. Like if they did end up with a guy like Matherin or Ivy and they still need a four, Yeah, why not keep Grant? He really does have a significantly higher ceiling than a lot of guys kind of midway through this draft. So there's a lot of allure just when you talk about, oh, we're getting a lottery pick from this team. I think a lottery pick sounds better than when you actually look at the names and the projected roles that some of these guys are figuring to play.

There are guys in this draft who have high ceilings that are further down, but they're further down for a reason. and Jeremy Grant is, you know what you're getting with him, and he is a guy who is capable of going off for, you know, 30, maybe even 40. Like we just saw that earlier this week. And when he's playing his role and he's playing within a good offense or within the role that's asked of him, I think that he's a much more valuable player. Yeah, exactly. When he's pulling up for a long twos and he's kind of playing for himself,

that's when he gets frustrating. But like you said, he's played a lot better lately. and in that sense, you know, you don't necessarily want to get rid of him. No, I mean, the long twos, I don't think he'll ever be good at those. That's no shame to him. Hardly anybody is good at those.

Like legitimately, hardly anybody. It takes a really good mid-range shooter to make those mid-range pull-ups, like anywhere in the realm of efficiency and Grant is not that good. Grant is like a mid-30s. I think he's gotten himself

into like in a mid-to-high-thirties on those with a bit of a hot streak lately. And that's terrible. I mean, that's a really bad efficiency. And I think it's the product between, Casey saying, you know what, Jeremy, go out and do your thing. So yeah, it's possible. It's possible. Yeah, but I mean, he's a valuable player. Your concern is, and don't get me wrong. I mean, TCA is eligible for about $110 million extension. And that's not a bad value for a player like Grant.

I mean, it sounds like a lot, but, you know, that's, that's what, that's a going rate for a good starter. It was the mid, the mid 20 millions. Aaron Gordon got that, for example. So that wouldn't be a bad salary. it's just like when players start to get into the early 30s still in their prime who knows at that stage might sound a little bit silly like he'd be 28 I think at the start of his next contract or 29 that's just the part that gives me pause a little bit and it might sound a little bit silly

but if you might be able to get a guy whom you think would help you comparably and is a lot younger and under that is cost control for four years but in this draft I mean who knows so it'll be interesting interested to see what trade packages ultimately are offered. I mean, whatever we hear about.

But I don't think it'd be the worst thing in the world. If Grant stays this summer, I feel like it's pretty likely he'll get that extension come November, which I think is when he's eligible for it. Or maybe it's in the off season. I don't remember. So usually it's two years for a player on a contract of four years or three or four, whatever. But the case with Grant, it's two years after he signed his original contract is when he's eligible to sign his extension. However, the 2020 off season was really weird. Free agency was in

November. I'm not sure if they're kind of going to adjust that to free agency at its normal time. And if they do, he'd be eligible for it in July. So yeah, I don't think of the worst thing in the world. I don't know. Like I've mentioned that you look at this draft and it's not that exciting. Like some of the names that are there if you want to look them up, some of the names that I like at that level are like guys like Tari Isson, very athletic forward, but he doesn't project as a great shooter yet. Jaden Hardy has been improving slightly in the G-League. He might be able to break back into the lottery discussion. He'd probably be within that range if the Pistons really like him. And then another guy that I like is Oshaya Abaji, but he just, he projects as like a fairly athletic three-and-a-roll player.

It's guys like that. So you kind of have to temper your expectations when you're talking about the return that you would potentially get for grant. You know, a lottery pick sounds really good. maybe you package that pick with some other stuff and maybe you make a big move for a star, but again, you're going to have to package that along with other significant assets. So it's just worth looking into what that return might actually look like and then comparing that to what Grant might be able to do for us. Like you said, he's 28, 29, the start of that extension.

And you figure that maybe has another five years of, you know, prime Jeremy Grant. That could be very useful. So it's all these things are worth considering. I think it's good that, you know, these offers are coming in and it gives you options. And again, in the vein of you want to find guys who fit the timeline better, fit alongside K'd better. It's enticing and it's interesting. But Jeremy Grant has proven, especially over the last month, that he can contribute to a winning team and play very well. And so it makes that discussion a little bit more interesting.

Maybe you think it through more carefully. Consider all options. Yeah, of course. Yeah. Like I said, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I looked it up. He's going to be 29 at the start of the extension. And, you know, around 32, 33 is not the question for players who are not really high-level

talents to start to go into decline. So that's worth keeping in mind. But, yeah, it wouldn't be a terrible thing. You know, we'll see. There's also the question of whether he is a good fit, for example, with Sadiq Bay, who seems to do a good deal better in some situations. with Jeremy out. And why don't we transition it from there to Bay,

who of course recently had his 51-point game against the Orlando Magic. So congratulations to Sadiq. And yeah, that was an impressive performance. It definitely came on the back of really solid three-point shooting. And yeah, Sadiq has really turned, we talked to him about him a lot a couple episodes ago, but he's definitely turned around a season that started as a complete disaster.

And now he's playing some actually really good ball. So, yeah, there is the consideration of the fit between those two because they do, to a degree, occupy the same space on the floor, even though Jeremy's much better at driving to the net. But, yeah, there is the question of if you unlock more of Sadiq by having Jeremy off the floor. Does that performance by Sadiq, does that change your opinion of his ceiling? No. Or like what you think that he could be? No, it doesn't. I mean, it's great to see him go off like that.

It was against, you know, he got hot and he kept shooting. and that's great. The vast majority of you guys are never going to score 50 points or anywhere near 50 points. I'm not taking away from how impressive it was. But, yeah, that doesn't substantively alter my opinion of how he might turn out. I mean, he went out there, no K, no Grant, got to take a ton of shots. And if they were there, it might have just been the scoring getting spread out more. This was also an Orlando defense that had given up to 60 points in three quarters to Kyrie Irving a couple nights earlier. And there are also, it's worth noting some utility guys who's score.

you know, with those score 50 points. Terrence Ross, plays with Magic now. As a bench player is not that great. Scored 51 at the same age. Corey Brewer has scored 50. He's been out of the league for a while. And so it doesn't really change it. I've been impressed with the way that Sadeek has played.

And he's got me thinking, you know, okay, maybe this is a guy who could be number three, the number three guy in a contender, maybe. And that would be awesome. Of course, I still think you would need your number two in that case to be a guy who can really create from the perimeter off the dribble because I don't think that's really ever going to be to Dique's bread and butter as bread and butter is going to be his three-point shooting.

Yeah, I agree with you. I've always thought of him as a really good number four option. And this one, I think it did change my mind a little bit. I think it raised what I think his ceiling could be because I agree with you. What we saw from him, it was really impressive. I think he could actually be, you know, the third best player on a championship team now. And again, it's like you said, it would depend on, you know, the guys who are there above him. But he's knocking down threes for whatever.

It's really interesting. You watch him. It doesn't look like his three is released that high. But hardly anybody ever blocks it. I don't know if it's because it's such a compact and quick release or what. But guys are not stopping that shot. He's getting it off quickly. And then he's definitely learned to use his strength to drive in there, take contact,

and not get bumped off balance, and he's finishing with strength. And that's been such a fun development on the season. And, you know, that makes him a much more complete player. He can attack. and he can shoot and that's going to make guys guard him very closely and you know you kind of have to pick your poison there so sadiq yeah he's definitely impressed and this has been a great developmental season for him and even though you know we're both very uh conscious of the the tank standings but i'm never going to take away you know i'm not upset about a win when it comes on

the back of a 50 piece you know 50 point games are special i don't want to take away from that at all I'm not going to be upset about that. Yeah, absolutely. You know, it was a fun game to watch. And, yeah, in that case, you take the win. You say, yeah, great. As far as blocks, yeah, Sadiq has been blocked three times this season on threes, which is, you know, pretty good, darn good for how many threes he now attempts with defenders

close to him. He's gotten very good at that. He's just good at finding his position and getting the three off very quickly. Yeah, he's attempted, like, you know, over 500 threes this season. Yeah, they're all talking about on the broadcast that he's, He's on the verge. Yeah, he's just going to break the record for most threes in the season for the Bistons. Yeah.

So, yeah, it's good to see. Like I said, I think he'll primarily be a shooter who can create off the dribble rather than a creator who can shoot. And that's an important distinction. But, yeah, he's definitely progressed by leaps and bounds since they ended that, that horrendous, you know, take the ball at the perimeter and just score with it, please, experiments. I mean, it's, that was such a catastrophe. Yeah, he was getting stopped short and, you know, taking out. a lot of those mid-range fadeaways. He's kind of cut those out in favor of driving and finishing with strength.

So taking better shots. Yeah, it's not just that. I mean, he basically, he'd drive in. The defense had no trouble coming to help. And he'd either take a flat-footed way up through multiple coverage or take a runner through contact. Yeah, or take one of those mid-range pull-ups or post-up and miss. And yeah, he's not really attempting that offense from the perimeter on in, that sort of by so offense. He passes the ball now when he makes the right reeds and he passes the ball.

He sometimes does the mid-range pull-up, but kind of a little bit different. He tends to stop and take his time at this point. And yeah, the attempts to finish through multiple coverage and the attempts to finish from the pain on difficult offense, that's all gone. He's attempting smart offense and he's a smart player. And we've known that since before he was drafted. So, yeah, if he can be the number three guy in a championship team, you know, fantastic. You've really made a big leap toward contention. Of course, this team still needs a lot more down before it's going anywhere.

I mean, I think that should be reiterated. But if you got conceivably, you're number one or number three guy, then great. And if he's the number four guy, that's also great. Absolutely. I think it's going to, it's like you said, it's going to depend more on who's in front of him, the number one, number two guy.

They have to be able to create more for him. Oh, okay. But he's definitely, yeah, absolutely. That number two guy is still yet to be found. And, you know, maybe we'll, hopefully we'll talk about that guy later. Yeah. And you got to wonder where that could possibly be found in this draft. Yeah. You know, you can you can think, you know, who knows, maybe if Hame becomes like a 40% three point shooter, that's suddenly and can shoot pull up threes. You know, maybe he's a guy who can give you 25 points per game and maybe, you know, maybe you've got a pretty good core there.

But that's, that's a really big if. Yeah, I'm not banking on that one. No, I'm not either. It would make me very, very happy. But yeah, yeah, I'm not banging out of either. All right, so let's move on to the March Madness prospect's checkup, so to speak. So first of all is, well, everybody's most talked about prospect, I suppose, for the most part anyway. And that's the human skeleton himself, Holmgren. So two games, Gonzaga's made it to Sweet 16. They had a bit of a scare against Memphis.

Not a great game. They shot absolutely terribly from the free throw line. It was really bizarre. But, yeah, big game against... goodness, which team was this? Georgia State, right? So Chet finished with 19.17 rebounds, five assists, seven blocks and two steals.

Pretty impressive, of course. It's also a 16 seed. And Georgia State's Biggs ended up in this hilarious rash of foul trouble. I mean, by like halfway through the second, they had nobody. They brought in this guy who had barely played any minutes to play against, like, one of the top teams. They get the team that had finished number one in the, and the end of season, top 25. So, yeah, and then I think quite a bit less impressive against Memphis.

What are your thoughts on him? Yeah, I think that, I mean, for me, easily, the matchup of Duren versus Chet was going to be the one that I really wanted to see. That was my most anticipated matchup for sure. And Chet didn't, I'll just say this. It's very frustrating from a talent evaluation standpoint that Chet plays next to Drew Timmy. Oh, yes. Unless you, I mean, if you consider Chet to be a four,

Maybe it's not that bad, but I still think that at least defensively he should be a five just because of what he does near the rim. And in that game, you didn't really get that match up a ton for a couple reasons. One, because Drew Timmy's out there playing the five a lot. And two, Duren got into a lot of early fall trouble that kept him off the floor for a long stretch. They're kind of midway through that game. And Chet ended up doing most of his damage in terms of scoring against their backup center, Dandridge. But he shot four of seven on field goals and then O of three from three. You know, that's something to keep an eye on.

There's a lot of, a lot of his banking on whether Chet can shoot the three ball reliably. I don't put too much stock into March Madness games in terms of like how I evaluate their whole season. But if you want to talk about how it affects maybe how you evaluate how clutch they are, maybe that's a factor for you. I don't put too much stock into that. We had a big shot last year with Jalen Suggs and thinking the final. floor that sent him to the championship game. Yeah, and Spud's mostly disappointed. Yeah.

It's stuff like that, but it's worth mentioning that, you know, Chet, he really struggled a lot against Doreen. And that was the big thing. Doreen has 50 pounds on him. It's worth mentioning that Dandras does as well. But Doreen is more mobile. He was able to corral him, keep him away from the basket. He forced a lot of tough offense from Chet.

And I think that's a big part of the reason why Chet didn't shoot very much against him. And that's why he finished with fairly little field goals. And that's kind of what we were looking for. We wanted to see how does Chet deal with size? I think he struggled a fair bit on offense. Defensively, though, he was fine. You know, the matchups that he did have against Duren, he was handling him. I mean, it comes down to what we talked about last week where the mobility allows him to get tremendous position to just keep his hands up and force really tough shots.

I mean, I'll let you say what you want to say about Chet because it rolls right into Duren. when you talk about that game, you kind of want to go back and forth on them. So what were your thoughts on Chet? So Chet, it was really noticeable of the difficulty he had gaining position. So there are two things here. Number one, there is Drew Timmy. And yeah, that is a confounding factor. And Drew Timmy is just an example of a college guy.

My opinion, an example of a college guy who really excels in the NCAA and whose game is incredibly unlikely to translate to the NBA. But they're fielding the guy who's going to give them the best chance of winning in the now. of course, this is not, the NCAA has not a development platform for the NBA. So Chet is in a strange situation in which he often ends up getting squeezed out by Gonzaga's guards and Drew Timmy. So it makes it a lot harder to see how he would operate on the pig and roll or how he'd operate if he were getting fed more down low or just how he would operate as more of a center on offense when he just gets squeezed out to the perimeter a lot. And like against Georgia State, he was able to get his stuff done. I mean, Georgia State.

state didn't really have a hope against Gonzaga in the first place. But against Memphis, he just couldn't really find his way into the game offensively. On defense, he was still good. It's worth noting he did fallout, but on defense, he was still pretty good. I think he did a good job against Duren, who had a horrible shooting game, you know, notwithstanding the fact that he didn't play all that much. He had a horrible shooting game, and a lot of that was Chet. So, yeah, it's just, it's, it's, the situation makes it harder to evaluate certain things about him. But he does have a difficulty establishing position as a result of his weight. He's not a guy who can just go right into the interior and get himself in a good spot. Yeah, that was definitely one of the things. Those guys

were fighting very hard for position. I think Duren ultimately did get the better of that one. But you could tell that like once, even when Duren got to the basket against Chet, like once he actually had to finish over or around him, he struggled. I think Chet blocked him a couple times. And then there was one shot where Jalen tried to compensate against. Chet's length and he put up more of like a flip shot, you know, something that you see, you know, guards when they're attacking the inside, they get stopped short and they try to, you know, get the shot up over length. That's something that you see more from them. Jalen tried to do that. And that's impressive because you really got to see like the height difference. Both of these guys have a seven foot five wingspan, but Chet definitely has a few inches on him. And yeah, Duran, I think it's, Duren's probably about six months. He's close to six nine. Yeah. But it usually it doesn't matter. The guy is so freakishly athletic. And the other thing I'll say about the defense from these guys, Duren, he did keep up with Chet when Chet was on the perimeter. Like, Chet tried to, you know, draw him out and then threatened to take like a jumper. And Jalen followed him all the way out there.

And Chet tried to drive it inside, and it didn't end up mattering. Chet was not able to get off easy shots. He wasn't able to take advantage of his speed. You know, you talk about the, I think the comp comes up Drummond and Duren, but the big difference that I I see, at least defensively, is that Duren can move. You know, the size, it's not a matter of, you know, he's too heavy to shift his weight well. He handled it.

You know, that was another thing that you want to see. Yeah, here's the thing. I mean, Drummond was considered to be highway athletic. I don't hold to that comp, like, closely. It's just something that gives me pause a little bit. Yeah, I think that one's more of a mentality thing. But I think it looked fine to me. The intensity was there.

Yeah, I mean, it's not even just mentality. I mean, this is a raw traditional center, raw highway athletic traditional center. I mean, Drummond was very quick. Drummond was like back then. There were people who said, you know, he may be one of the best centers in the league. Yeah, this was back before the spacing era began. And the value of traditional centers went down a great deal. But they're like, you know, here's a guy who's pretty hugely athletic and, you know, runs the floor incredibly well.

And he was just, he was an extremely athletic center at a time when centers still really weren't all that quick. So, but I mean, even when you leave Drummond out of there, you know, you think about Duren. You were impressed by his defensive performance. I don't think he really has a ton on the way of defensive smarts. Maybe he has enough to handle himself at the NCAA level. But if you're drafting a traditional center, it's like you better hope. You're drafting him high. It's like you better hope.

Really what you're hoping for is they just will lead on defense because he's going to have deficiencies on offense. It's worth noting that we did not see Duren take any jumpers as far as I can remember. He took one long mid-range. Long mid-range. Oh, right. I remember. That was with Chet guarding him. So that was definitely one where he didn't feel like he was going to

be able to take him off the dribble and finish. Yeah, that was a bad shot. Now, that was a really bad shot. It was like halfway through the second half, I think, or more than that. Actually, it may have been further into the game, and they really needed, you know, would have been much better for them to get a good opportunity. And a long two from Jalen Duren is not a good opportunity. So, yeah.

And then there was the fact that his, I mean, the guy finished against Gonzaga, three of 11 for seven points. That is a horrendous performance. from a traditional center down low at one point. Well, actually, he was two of ten at one point. That doesn't make a difference. You'd finish three and eleven after Chet flopped on him and Turin got a dunk. But yeah, in terms of his scoring, I mean, a guy who's that athletic and whose game is going

to depend that much on finishing at a high percentage in the interior, it was just a little bit discouraging to see. Even though it was Chet, it was still discouraging to see. And I feel like Duren really could have really could have pushed him around quite a bit more than he did. Yeah, I mean, Chet, he's still able to handle himself, but he definitely did seem to struggle with the size. Once they get to the rim, Chad is able to make use of his length and it doesn't end up mattering that much. But again, when we get to the NBA and it's bigger guys, more athletic guys, Duren's plenty of athletic.

I don't think he's going to be, I think he'll step into the league and he'll probably be top 15 in terms of athleticism for centers. He's really a phenomenal athlete. So, I mean, it's a good matchup, and that's definitely one that we want. wanted to see. But I think both of them did what they were supposed to do. They did what was advertised. If you want to talk about Jalen's offensive struggles, I mean, it's worth mentioning that Memphis is not doing him any favors.

He's supposed to be finishing plays, and they just don't have that many guys who can initiate them or create offense. Yeah. And then Chet, I mean, like, the defense, the IQ, it's as advertised. Like, even this guy who's got 50 pounds on him, once they get to the hoop, Chet's able to make full use of his length and he's making shots tough. But he's, again, he's struggling to get his own shot off, struggling to establish position. And during, I really think that, at least in the first half, he was anchoring a very strong defense.

Like Gonzaga was really having trouble getting anything going on the inside. They were taking a lot of threes. And I think that they were uncomfortable with that. So I would have to disagree with you in terms of Jalen's defensive IQ. I think that it's there. it's maybe more of a matter of intensity and maybe there is a learning curve once he gets to the NBA.

But I thought positionally, he did very well. It was just fall trouble. Some of them were takey-tech falls. I think he could have been a lot more assertive. And that was the case, even in the game against Boise State, that was really unimpressed by him.

Here's the thing about Duren. This is worth mentioning. He was 7 to 22 in the tournament. He scored 17 points on 22 shots counting two trips to the line. He was not good offensively, like by any stretch. And in the Boise State game in Boise State,

is not a great team. Whatever. I mean, it was a seven against an eight. Pretty much a lot of the time, he was just out there. Really, all he was providing was rebounding. I mean, the guy just has trouble finding his way into the game. And part of that said he's a traditional center and some of that is coaching there. But I just really wasn't impressed by his level of engagement, his level of assertiveness. And that was true against Gonzaga as well.

Again, I really think that he could have taken more advantage of the size difference. I mean, Chet is a fantastic defender, but I think he could have taken more advantage to the fact. that again, literally he has more than 50 pounds on Chet, I think. If I'm remembering correctly, yeah, Durant's 250. Yeah, so depending on what Chet's weight is, 190, 195 is more than 50 pounds, you know, between 55 and 60 pounds. So I just wasn't impressed.

And his offense was legitimately bad, like really legitimately bad. So, in my opinion, not very encouraging and probably befitting a guy who's likely to go in, you know, probably 10 to 14, I would guess, in a really weak class. I guess I saw it differently than you, man. I don't think that he's top five by any stretch, but I could see him going as high as eight, maybe seven, if the right team and the right fit is there. I think that the tools are there.

I just don't think that he was on. I think the roster around him was terrible. I don't like Penny Hardaway's game management. But, yeah, no, it's very frustrated. They left him out there for too long when he picked up early fouls, and then they had to hold him out for a long time. But when he was able to play his game, like, he's effective. It's just that there's hardly anybody who can generate offense for him.

Yeah, I hear you. Against Boise State, though. He wasn't dealing with the Holmgren. He wasn't really dealing with a strong defender. He was four of 11 for 10 points and 30 minutes. And he really wasn't right on defense. I don't know who he was playing against. Yeah.

I agree with you that he should be more dominant on offense, given his size and the natural tools that he has. I don't know why he doesn't get more. But again, they don't really run. Yeah, I know that. Some of this goes on to him as well, though. I mean, again, like, I think you were impressed with this level of engagement on defense. I don't know.

I missed the first half. I definitely was. Full disclosure. I missed the first half against Gunzegger because I was watching the Pistons play. But, yeah, against Boise State and watched that whole game, not impressed. I just not impressed with him at all. One thing I did see that's a little nice is that the guy is actually pretty good at making reads in terms of passes, but it's just his level of compete and assertiveness in the interior

around the basket in particular, is just not there. and plays or not, I mean, that's concerning for a guy who's really, do you want to be a traditional center in the NBA, you've got to score a high percentage in the interior. And as far as defense yet, the guy can move his feet. You know, he's quick, he's switchable. He's got some work to do on decision-making. But I just don't think he's a super smart defender either. And if you've got a guy who's, again, you've got to, if you're going to be a traditional center,

I mean, you've got to be a respectable defender. Maybe he will be in the NBA, but I don't think he's going to be a high-level defender. It's just my sense about him, not just from this tournament in general. All right. Moving on to Paulo Bancaro. Yeah, I'm not a big fan of Paulo. But as you know, if you listened to the last episode, we'll go into it. Duke's on to the Sweet 16.

Unfortunately, they be in Michigan State. But Apollo had a couple of pretty good showings. Not like fantastic from an efficiency standpoint. But, you know, pretty good. What were your thoughts? Just on what you saw about Boncaro? Yeah, just on those two games. He shot 7 to 14 on field goals and then 2 of 4 from 3 versus.

Cal State and then against MSU he had eight of 14 on field goals and then two of five from three. It's worth mentioning, at least in the MSU game, both of his makes from three were catching shoot. He had plenty of time to get him off. But it's really more of the same. You know, if the shots fall, his game looks great on a highlight reel because he's pulling up for mid-range, he's, you know, turn around fadeaways. It's a pretty game.

The problem is the percentages over the course of the season are not great. And we talked about that in the last episode. And I didn't see anything here that really, you know, changes my mind on that. I still think that his type of athleticism is like, it's in the vein, not the vein. It's good for the NCAA. Kind of, yeah. I mean, Julius takes a lot of, that's a good comp. I don't know if he has that kind of strength.

I don't know Julius Randall's game all that well. I mean, play style-wise, yeah, I can see the similarities. But it's really more of the athleticism that's a problem. for me and then the three ball. Again, 50% and then 40%. That looks good, but I think on the season, he's at 32%. Not encouraging, but it's really the athleticism. I don't think he's going to dominate with size in the NBA the way that he does in college. And that's really the problem, because a lot of what he does, it's reliant on burst, putting his shoulder into guys and then finishing with strength. And he does that against college centers, college bigs, but I don't think

that's going to be a regular thing that he's doing in the NBA. Yeah, I mean, a lot of his game has based around generating mismatches, guys, you can really bludgeon. I think it's worth noting that the difference between the NCAA, the average defender and the NCAA, the average player in the NCAA, and the average player in the NBA is gigantic. I mean, it is huge. The NBA is the elite of the elite, oh, the elite of the elites, and your margins are very, very, very, very slim. I mean, something small can make a big difference.

So what I see and what I continue to see with follow, what I saw earlier in the season, what I've seen in his first two games in the NCAA tournament, yeah, a lot of what he does is just taking NCAA defenders off the dribble. He is taller than most of them. He was stronger than almost all of them. He's skilled, don't get me wrong. But he just takes them off the dribble and sometimes he'll get stopped in attempt a mid-range shot, mid-range pull-ups.

You know, good luck, too, Powell. But in all likelihood, you're not going to be able to make those efficient. In the NBA, you certainly have in the NCAA, but in the NBA, it's going to be even harder. Or he'll finish below the rim at the basket. And it's like, well, in the NBA, like, sure, public can make the right read and pass when he gets doubled. He's going to get doubled, I think, less in the NBA. And also, if your help is coming, and as it often will, if the help defense,

particularly the center is coming from the direction of where you want to pass, and this is a much better defender than your interface in the NCAA and much more athletic. You can get swatted a lot more or stopped. So this just strikes me as a very strong NCAA player whose strengths really aren't going to translate all that well to the NBA. You're right about his athleticism. He is not a good athlete. he's not a good weeper he's not explosive yeah i wanted to mention i wanted to mention the three ball just the fact that it was a lot of catch and shoot because a big part of the first game yeah against msu i think he had a couple pull-ups or both of the mistakes catch and shoot i can't remember it could be right yeah either way i mean the the problem is that a lot of what boncaro does well

for duke it's it's reliant on him having the ball in his hands and you don't want a high usage player who's inefficient on most of his shots. So that's a bit of a problem. It's still, again, nothing that I've seen from him in the tournament or throughout the year has really changed my mind on the idea that he's going to be an inefficient volume score at the NBA level if he continues to play the way that he's playing. At the college level, it looks really impressive, you know, on these YouTube highlight reels.

But when you factor in the misses and the percentages, it kind of falls apart for me. Yeah, if you believe in the athleticism, I think that he's really interesting. And then the passing, of course, is really good. The footwork is super crisp. I like when it works. But when he gets stopped short and he's, like, spinning away from the basket for a fadeaway. When he makes it, it looks really nice, but he's going to miss a lot of those shots. And it's going to get frustrating if you're watching that night to night in the NBA.

Yeah, it's, yeah, you've got to be able to make that offense efficient. He attempts a lot of difficult offense. It's been around fadeaways, pull up, you know, pull up mid-range. If you can make those work in the NBA more power to you, you'll be very difficult to guard, but most vast majority of guys can't. So, and I agree with you, he's, he's continued to do nothing to demonstrate to me that he can be a good off the ball, you know, that he can be a valuable off the ball player. And I don't think Paula Bunkero is ever going to be good enough in the NBA to justify him playing tremendously on the ball. So still not a big fan. The quick word from our sponsor, college basketball fans, join the action on the court during the biggest tournament of the year with drafting sportsbook.

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sports books. 21 plus restrictions apply. See show notes for details. All right, moving on to Keegan Murray, we only got one game out of him and it was not a good one. Ostensibly looked, you know, looks good on a stat line, eight of 15. Didn't hit anything three, but it's 21 points, nine rebounds, two assists. So he really disappeared in the second half against Richmond. We mentioned the last episode that San Vasini, whom we both think pretty highly of as draft analyst Compton, Mc Tobias Harris. Unfortunately, we saw he looked a lot like Tobias in this game in a bad way. Tobias Harris has a habit of allowing himself to be squeezed out of

the offense and just being a non-factor into the second half. Keegan Murray had a lot of trouble finding his way into the offense. Some of this was coaching, but a lot of it was just that he didn't have any easy route to get into the interior. He was doing a lot of posting up and, you know, he had some shots on drop steps and hooks. This is not stuff he's going to be doing in the NBA. I mean, the defenders, it's, the post offense is hard to pull off efficiently, the vast majority of guys. is it's just not easy offense and he's not going to be able to bully guys with his strength. So he just couldn't find his way in.

He just couldn't score against Richmond's defense in the second. It was really unpleasant to see. It really highlighted how dependent he is upon his strength. The thing that we really wanted to see out of him was scoring more through finesse and agility and not their brute strength. Didn't do that. And yeah, he just became a non-factor like the last 15 minutes of the game. And that's bad, needless to say. It's just bad.

And I'm sad that this is the only piece of data I'm going to get on them in the NCAA tournament. And that this is going to be the only memory that I have when we're talking about drafting later on, because I know the pistons are big on him. Yeah. And again, I mean, you mentioned that he didn't hit anything from three. He shot a low of three in this game. When you look at his overall season stats, it paints a better picture. I think he's probably closer to like 37 percent on threes this season, maybe higher.

But that's a big part of the intrigue. Maybe if he was hitting his shots, he would have felt more confident to take that shot from outside. maybe they defend him differently. Maybe he's able to take advantage of his size. Murray is at around 40% in the season. Oh, yeah, that's even better. But, yeah, this game, it just didn't come down. And, yeah, I agree with you.

I'm disappointed that this is the only game that we get to see from him. Not a good way to go out. But overall in the season, I mean, again, the way you play in the tournament doesn't really change how I feel about you for the most part. So it's not a huge deal, but it wasn't a great showing from him. Yeah, I mean, it's on the biggest stage. that's part of it. And, you know, March Madness is partly partly March Madness because crazy things can happen. It's a single elimination tournament. But it was just really distressing to me to see him.

You know, a guy, you know, don't get me wrong. Being a Naismith player the year, I don't think it necessarily automatically qualifies a guy to be good in the NBA. He'll probably win it. It's just like, he just got squeezed out against the not very good team. They just made him a non-factor. He could not find his way into the interior off the dribble. So, yeah, pretty big upset. Yeah, that's, that's worrying. He's going to be about. 22 with the draft. Of course, there's still time for further growth, but it doesn't make me feel any better about a ceiling than I felt before. A.J. Griffin hasn't really done too much. 10 points on 4 of 9, 2 of and 7 from 3 against CSU Fullerton, I think, against Michigan

States before he checked out. I think he got injured, though he played 37 minutes first, seven points on 3 to 7 shooting, 1 of 3 from 3. So an issue with AJ Griffin is that he can really get pushed to the periphery of the offense, especially with Boncaro and with Duke's guards. So we just didn't see much of him. Yeah, we just haven't seen much of him at all. I don't think there's anything. There are pretty much zero takeaways at this point.

He might have heard his ankle. I remain petrified of his injuries, and you know of his potential for injuries. The twisted ankle is what it is, a sprained ankle. So I wish you'd get higher usage, but that's not going to happen in this Duke roster. Yep. Yeah.

You want to talk about a wing who actually is playing with fairly high usage? I mean, if you consider him a wing, and he got 6-10, you probably playing power forward at the NBA level. I think he will. I mean, he's primarily a perimeter-oriented player. We're talking about Jabari Smith at this point.

Yeah, a wing, though. A wing is a guy who's going to be playing shooting guards small forward. Jabari Smith's almost certainly not going to be playing shooting guard. More power to him if he can make it work. He'd be unguardable, but, you know, from the three-point line. Yeah. Yeah, some good, some really bad. Yeah, they played.

Javari Smith and Auburn were eliminated early. A lot of people had them winning the whole thing. So it was pretty shocking to me, at least. Jabari Smith, I don't have a stat line in front of me from his game against Jackson State, but he shot four of seven from three. At one point, he was four or five. But then in the second game against Miami, he shot three of 16 on field goals, one of eight from three.

And that's kind of the thing with Jabari Smith. If his outside shot isn't falling, he really doesn't have a way of attacking the inside. Well, it's not that he doesn't have a way of attacking the inside. He just, he doesn't. And that's kind of the big concern with him. but he's been such a good shooter overall throughout the season that it hasn't really bothered many people. And I still have him number one overall on my board. I'm very high on what he can bring.

It's just, you know, this is a bad time for this kind of performance to happen. You know, I take a lot of shots and a lot of them don't go in. So not a good showing from Jabari Smith. He's definitely a big part of generating advantages for that team. And if his shots aren't falling, you know, that's not happening. So I don't know. How did you feel about that game? Not great.

I mean, it basically just highlighted the issue with Jabari right now is that, you know, he's an elite three-point shooter. I think he's rejected as an elite three-point shooter under the NBA. He can do some three-point shooting off of pull-ups, for example, in isolation. You know, great. That's a skill he has. It's a skill that is extremely useful in the NBA, especially because he can shoot it over most players. Now, this highlighted his weakness, which is that he doesn't really do much aside from that. I mean, you've seen at times this season that, okay, sometimes we'll post up on smaller players.

and sometimes he'll take mid-range pull-ups, though not often, and I can't speak to his degree of success. I don't think very successfully, though I'd have to look it up. Yeah, if his three ball isn't falling, I mean, he disappeared. He was one of eight and three. He was two of eight from the interior. It's a great of rebounding in both games. Who knows if he'll do quite as well in the NBA?

I mean, he's tallies got a good wingspan, but I think he'll get pushed around a little bit more easily at the NBA level. But, yeah, it just highlighted his issues, which is that he doesn't try to attack the basket, for example. And I don't know if he's just content to rest on what he's good at right now, but that's not ideal. And it just highlights how weak this draft is that a guy who's primarily at this point, just a perimeter shooter, like an elite one, but just a perimeter shooter might go number one overall. Good defender, but on offense, just a perimeter shooter. Yeah.

His shot wasn't falling in. Yeah. And he fell apart. Yeah. Yeah. He did have one really nice poster done like chest to chest with the center, but he got the step on a guy, whoever was supposed to be guarding. him. I think they were slightly off to the side. He recognized it and he attacked, and that's great, but it's not really finishing isn't his problem. It's getting there. He does not like to, I don't know,

drive on players. So it's concerning. Maybe NBA spacing will help him, but it really feels like a mental thing to me. So not super encouraging there. It's not a good way to go out of the tournament. Again, they had very high expectations for this team. And, you know, anything short of probably Final Four is an early exit for them. Yeah, definitely. Yeah, I'm looking down in a stat sheet now as far as mid-range shots go. Some good, some very bad. Unfortunately, these stats don't tell us exactly what was, you know, what were pull-ups

and what weren't, though. Yeah, mid-range in general, 37%. Not great. So, you know, guys can improve. And maybe Jabari Smith is just Jumbo-Mittleton. Who knows? Yeah, he takes a lot of long twos, which is frustrating. Yeah.

But, I mean, if he's not going to be a guy who tax the baskets. That's going to be a shot. that he takes a lot. Yeah, definitely. So, I mean, again, it's frustrating because Jabari might have gone number six last year. Like, if you were in last year's draft, almost certainly. You'd be looking at this guy, elite three-point shooter, but what else does he offer? It would have measured up very poorly against the top five.

So, yeah. Another short review, Johnny Davis, neither of us like him. We both had bad things to say about him in the last episode. He did absolutely nothing to dispel those. Got to the line. I mean, yeah, Wisconsin lost. They got upset by Illinois. Their offense was horrible.

They didn't even reach 50 points. Iowa State, excuse me. Yeah, they didn't even reach 50 points. Davis was 4 of 16. The guy is of the shot greater archetype. He attempts a lot of really inefficient mid-range offense. He's not very athletic. He's not great at getting into the basket.

Yeah, he shot 4 of 16. Not ideal. I'm not a fan. Yeah. 0 of 7 from 3. Yeah, O of 7. Seven from three. Yeah, that too.

I mean, if this guy can get it together as a three-point shooter, maybe you have this sort of microwave off the bench, maybe. But, you know, right now he's just the very picture of high volume, low efficiency. And he doesn't even take a lot of threes. I think 24% of his shots are three-pointers. Yeah, half of him in this one. Yeah, close to half of his shots. And I think he's a bench player in the NBA best.

All right, moving on to another one who is one of your favorites, Jaden Ivy. So, yeah, the boiler makers are in the Sweet 16. So Ivy 6 or 13 from the field, three is six from three, 22 points, one assist against Yale, and then against Texas, four of seven, 18 points, two or four from three, three assists. Yeah, my issue, he's still, aside from, you know, his threes, especially in the first game, I think two or three of his three-point attempts against Texas for pull-ups, he just did very little off the ball.

I mean, the guy just remains by far at his best attacking downhill with a ball in his hands. and that's a fit question with Cade that we'll talk about plenty later. But yeah, it's just Pistons have a high volume handler right now and want another one. I still think that his ideal role as a combo guard, and I think he could take on that secondary ball handling. But, and again, I mean, yeah, we'll get into all of that when we do the single prospect episode. The thing I was looking for in this tournament was does he shoot it well from three? It's not that I put more stock into these performances.

it's still like he still had a rough, you know, second half of the college season in terms of, to say the least. But it's encouraging that he's taking these shots and making them. And again, a lot of the makes that he had were, well, actually it was a good mix of pull-ups and catch-and-ch-and-chute, which is encouraging. It's not that it, and even the misses, like, they're not bad.

So when you watch the film, you'll notice he takes his shots from like two or three feet behind the long line, which I still don't understand why. why he does that. I don't know if it's that he's afraid he's going to get blocked because he kind of has his release point his release point is pretty similar to Tyrese Halliburton's maybe a little bit lower but his release is it's not that it's a bad shot it's just a little low it's more of a push shot which again if you're going to take from further away you can get that shot off easier but your percentages are probably going to hurt. So when it comes to the NBA you know when you want to project that out it probably hurts him a little bit there but the touch is fine I think the

shot looks nice. And overall is when he goes to attack the basket, he's still, he's looking to kill anybody who's under that room. Yeah. He's phenomenal at getting to the basket. Yeah, and that's good. I just, again, he does the vast majority of his best work on the ball. That, you know, that, that's the issue. That's the issue I have. And that comes down to fit. I mean, if the Pistons didn't have K'd on the team, you know, if they had drafted Mowbly, for example, and Killian Hayes was the primary ball handler, I would say, screw it, you know, absolutely draft the guy. but I was really looking to see what he could do off the ball. He's not being asked to do a ton off the ball because this is what he's best at.

This is what I think would be best at in the NBA. It is worth noting that in the first half against Texas, I don't know why they didn't do this in the second half. They were just playing his defender like chest. His defender was playing basically chest to chest on him when he was off the ball and they were just sealing him off. And that made life very difficult on him because for the most part, he's just moving around the perimeter waiting to get the ball so he can attack.

And when he did get it, they were doubling him, especially if they could push him toward the outside. And he had a lot of trouble with that. I'm not sure why they changed what they were doing. So, yeah, I don't know if we'll see what he's really, I don't know if we'll see them bother to do more with him off the ball because he's just by far his best. However, I think that in the NBA is just going to be a guy who attacks downhill

with the ball in his hands. And that's going to be his primary skill. But we'll see. I don't think I'm going to see what I want to see from him just because it doesn't make sense for Purdue to do it. All right. And the last one, Benedict Matherin. So first game, seven.

of 18 from the field, four of 10 from three, 18 points. And then he was huge against, against TCU in a game in which number one seated Arizona was almost knocked off. They won 85 to 80 in overtime, eight of 19 from the field, only three of 11 from three, about 30 points, four assists, eight rebounds, two steals, including the game tying three. He took it across, the guy over and ran him into the screen and then took a pull-up three. Matherin's growing on me. I really like his intensity. I really like his athleticism. He's already a good shooter. He can already shoot off the move. And we're seeing him attack the rim more. And when he really asserts himself and just curls around a screen and goes straight to the basket, I mean, even at the NBA level, I think

defenders will have some difficulty keeping up with him. Also, the guy's just a competitor, though. I really like that. Not a huge fan of his body language towards his teammates, but he's clearly a competitor. And that's always good to have. So if there's going to be a riser in this tournament, I think it's going to be him. Yeah, I can agree with that. I could see him playing into top six consideration. I remember early on in the season, or like midway through the college season, that was a lot higher on Matherin's archetype, especially for the Pistons over Johnny Davis. And this was like peak Davis hype. I just never been a huge fan of his, you know, shop profile. But yeah, no, Matherin having a good tournament. I definitely agree with the idea that, you know, this could be

really good for his draft position. The only thing that I see wrong with him and the reason I think he's kind of outside of the top five is one. He's kind of got a lower projected ceiling because of the role that he kind of plays. He's probably going to be a very athletic three and D role player. And the other thing is that this is the big difference between him and Ivy for me. This is the reason I have Ivy over Mathron, even though Matherin projects as a better three-point shooter, is that Matherin gets stopped short on the way to the basket a lot more than Ivy does. And I think that's only going to get worse in the NBA because better competition, better defense. And I think that the athleticism that he displays is going to matter less because he's not a supreme athlete. He's

just really good for the college level. I think he's a pretty darn good athlete. I think he'd be a pretty darn good athlete, even at the NBA level. I mean, the guy... I think if that was the case, he wouldn't get stopped short so often in the college. Some of that is just how you conduct yourself on the drive. I mean, Ivy is excellent in changing directions, for example. I mean, that's helpful.

Mather and Billy isn't super athletic in that capacity. Also, you know, some of it comes down to the mental. Maybe it's something you can be taught. I think it's worth noting that he does make fairly good reads. And sometimes he can make some... He's getting better there for sure. Yeah. He's getting better.

I just, I don't know, maybe this is wishful thinking on my part, but I have an impression of a guy who could actually improve quite a bit off the drive at the NBA level. And, yeah, I mean, he's pretty darn good athletes. I think he'll be good offball player. I don't think he's necessarily going to be restricted to 3&D. And though, when I say faint shades, I mean, really faint shades. He's giving me, like, really, really faint shades of Donovan Mitchell for some reason.

I don't know if that has any merit to it whatsoever. But I'm excited to see what he can do later in the tournament. I feel like he really asserted himself. that game and that was good to see. Yeah, I think their final four favorites. Yeah. So we'll probably see a bit more of him. Yeah, I mean, you've got, who's the center?

I can't remember the name that's coming up. Coloco. Yeah, he's been good to see as well. It's just been enjoyable to watch. Who knows what the NBA upside is. But it's been fun to watch. Yes. All right, so we're pointing on doing that tankathon sim.

I suppose we could just breeze through it. So this was a ridiculous sim. Like we said in the last episode, So this was New York jumping to number one, Sacramento jumping to number two, and the trailblazers was jumping to number three. As things currently stand, a 0.085% chance of that happening. But, yeah, we'll just blow through it. I would think the picks would be for those teams and who the pistons should go with in that situation. This would be a terrible scenario.

All of us would hate it. This is drafting number six. So I'll start with New York. I'd say they go Chet. They have no center of the future there. Mitchell Robinson's nothing special. Norwood's no well as a stop gap. they have a guy they can play next to Julius Randall, whom I'm sure they are hoping will improve

because he has been quite bad this season. But, you know, your other principles on that team, I don't really have too many. RJ Barrett has improved this season, but still isn't all that great. And who else? I think they'd go with the talent, with the high, you know, conceivable highest ceiling, which is probably Chet. Maybe you think about Ivy, but not with RJ already on the team. So who would you go with for number two would be Sacramento? For Sacramento, I don't think that fit. plays too much of a role here. I think you go Jabari Smith Jr. Sacramento is kind of similar to us. They just need talent and a good shooting wing would be

really good for that two-man game that they have with Fox and Subonis now. So give them space. And I think Jabari Smith could really help that team. Yeah, could definitely be helpful. Yeah. All right. Number three would be the Portland Trailblazers. Yeah. This is where it gets quite a bit more difficult. You've got Willard, you've got Simons, and, you know, Chet's already off the board. Nerkich, of course, isn't the future there. They're really weak at forward. They remain very weak at forward.

Josh Hart's probably got a future there. So, my goodness, whom will we even be thinking about here? This is a team. Boncaro, maybe Griffin. No, definitely not Boncaro. I mean, when you've got Lillard and Simons on the team, that these guys are going to swallow up so much possession. And these are not guys you want hanging around while Paul Boncaro

handles the ball on high volume. So I'd say this is a team that maybe takes a good look at Kagan Murray. That'll be a disappointing outcome for them. Definitely not Ivy, for obvious reasons. They are not going to, this team would not even take a glance at Ivy with Willard unless they were just abruptly decided to trade Willard. So this team, I think, would take a good look at Keegan Murray, just as a solid guy at one of the forward spots.

You play him next to Josh Hart. Who knows? I mean, your stars are going to be your guards. All right, so number four, that is the Orlando magic. Yeah, I think they take Bunkero. I think at this point you just take talent. They do not need Jaden Ivy. They have Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, both those guys project as decent guards in the future.

They're both, I mean, Cole Anthony had a stretch where he was putting up like legitimate all-star numbers. It's a flash, but he's a second or third-year player, so you'll take it. And I don't think you want to split that too much. I'm still fairly high on Suggs as long-term potential. I know he hasn't been playing very well, but I don't think that he's played poorly enough that you're giving up on him functionally after one season. Yeah, first year play.

You know, exactly. And Boncaro, I mean, as much as we don't like him, he's up high on boards for a reason. Maybe that athleticism, maybe it's not that much of an issue. I still think that even for the pistons, you know, maybe at some point you're looking at taking him. So, yeah, that would be the pick there for the magic of four. Yeah, I completely agree.

Yeah, you definitely don't want another guard. It's dicey enough to try to develop. to the handlers in parallel like you have with Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs. Yeah, I think they can make it work with Bunkera because those guys could, you know, those guys don't become bad when they're off the ball. Not as useful, but not bad. All right, number five, that is Houston. My goodness.

Again, I don't think you take Ivy with Jalen Green already on the team, you know, regardless of what you think about Kevin Porter Jr. Really? Oh, man. This is a tough one. I'll just say I would definitely take Ivy there. I mean, I know, I know Kevin Porter Jr. has been decent for them, but I don't think he's like a long term. I don't think Jayland Green and, you know, and, uh, and Jade and Ivy are guys who are going to work well together.

I think their guys are a very athletic back court. It's a very athletic back court of guys who are both going to want to take the ball and attack. I mean, Jalen Green is much, you know, is as much better guy from three. I mean, I see where you're coming from. It's just you kind of want to point guard there also. I mean, depends on how you feel about Ivy's ability to make the right reads and the right passes, but you really got two. maybe combo guards there. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah, that's... I still think it can work. I think, I mean, Ivy, he's not a phenomenal pastor, but he's okay.

And I think he can make some reads. So, yeah, no, I understand the concern. I know you're low on Ivy, but I would absolutely pick Ivy there. I don't think there's anybody left. Yeah. Kevin Porter, Jr. Yeah, Kevin Porter, Jr., unfortunately, another blow up recently. When he, I think he missed a shot, he faked limping down the floor.

he got bad. I don't remember what it was. He wanted a lob play and didn't get it. He stared down the coach. And then he came out and went to the locker room. I don't think he played anymore. I mean, part of me feels bad. Oh, yeah, yeah, no, I remember that.

Yeah, I don't know what his situation is, but it's like the guy is only going to get so many chances in the NBA. So who knows, maybe they do go with Ivy. That's not all the wrong possibility. We'll go with that. All right. Are you picking Ivy? Yeah, we'll go with that just because I don't,

in part, but also because I don't want you drafting Ivy to the Pistons. Okay, well, that takes care of most of the top five. The guys who are left, A.J. Griffin, Shaden Sharp, if he declares, Ben Matherin, Jalen Duren, I think out of those guys, I would probably take Matherin. Oh, well, that's, I don't know, because I haven't looked into Shaden Sharp. I know that a lot of people would definitely take him at six. Some people would probably take him top three. I don't want to judge him based on high school film.

So for the sake of this exercise, I'm going to exclude him because I just don't know. I would take him at number six, so don't exclude him. Maybe, but I mean, I don't want to pick him if I legitimately know very little about him. But yeah, I mean, your official pick would be Shaden Sharp. Maybe he is worth that swing. But out of the guys excluding him, I would take Benedict Mathrin. I do like his game. And as low as, I don't want to say as low as I am, I mean, when you compare him to Ivy,

which I think is kind of the discussion that we're kind of gearing towards, I definitely prefer Ivy. but Matherin has definitely impressed, and I've been a big fan of his for quite a while. All right, fair enough. Okay. On to listeners submitted questions, which is going to be our final segment here. At the top of the list, can you hear me? That was from Tommy. My answer is yes.

Sorry, that wasn't actually a question. That was just on our list. So number one, will Kate ever become efficient enough to be a true number one? I'd like to mention that this is something I have been thinking about a little bit, Not necessarily will he ever be efficient enough to be a true number one, but his shooting numbers have been up and down, to say the least, is the last third of the season he's been down for sure. He had that really nice stretch in, I think, January,

where he won rookie of the month. And that's kind of what we expect him to be long-term or hope that he will be long-term. But the shooting numbers are definitely kind of creeping into the territory where you start to worry about them. So I understand where this question is coming from. I think Cade has the potential to be efficient enough to be a true number one. a big part of why he was taken so high is because of the shooting upside and it projects well.

He's definitely proven that he can sustain it for an extended period of time, but he just hasn't for the course of this season. But against his rookie year, not a lot of talents around him. Guys are guarding him very closely. He is priority one, two, and three on most team scouting reports. You can see it in the way that they game plan him. I think that as he gets more talents around him, more reps, I think his efficiency will climb steadily. And I don't anticipate that being a big problem.

long term. I think as long as he's good enough to warrant close coverage, he's going to generate advantages and that's not a concern. Yeah. I think the answer is yes. I'd say, I'd believe that pretty strongly. So I think as he gains more strength, he's going to have a lot more success driving in and scoring at the basket. He's already very shifty, very patient, very cerebral. And I think that'll help him draw more fouls too, which is really going to help his efficiency. he's been pretty darn deficient lately. I'm not sure about lately, but in February. He certainly shot about 50% on mid-range pull-ups.

Great asset to have, and that's a pretty darn good percentage. Just for reference, that's about what DeRosen, I believe, is shooting on mid-range pull-ups. I mean, in the half-court, that's one point per possession shot. That's great, especially, you know, if you're self-creating. But it's good in general. The average half-court offense generates about 0.97 thereabouts, maybe a little bit higher. So, and yeah, I think he's, I think it's three-point shooting. He's going to improve.

I don't think he's going to struggle like this in the long term, and I think he'll be a decent pull-up, pull-up three-point shooter as well. You can shoot, pull-up three-up three-percent. You're in pretty good shape, and that just makes it that much harder to defend you. So you have a good three-level score there. Yeah, I think he'll be real good. And presumably, he's going to have quite a bit less defensive attention on him, just from having better guys around him because he does get mobbed at this point.

All right, what kind of contract do you offer Bagley and free agency? I would offer him a one-in-one, you know, one-plus team option at maybe around the qualifying offer. I don't know if we'll get the qualifying offer. I don't think the Pistons are too afraid of another team swooping in to pick him up. How many teams that? Qualifying offer is I believe about $7.5 million. Okay. So, yeah, not many teams with Capspace.

Also, Bagley is still a mess. Like, sure, the Pistons look better with Bagley at times, you know, particularly when he's playing center on offense. because he's a lop threat, but that's because the Pistons didn't have one, didn't have an athletic big, and that was a huge gap. Could have been anybody who came in and made them look better there. Aside from that, Bagley, he's very athletic. He's very good at playing above the rim. He's a very good finisher under the basket and defense that's created, offense, excuse me, that's created for him. He is not good at creating offense for himself around the basket, does that I'm pretty low efficiency.

His efficiency plunges when he holds the ball for, like, you know, more than two seconds. And he can't shoot. And on defense, he's a mess. He just his defensive smarts. I mean, that is the number one question about his future in the NBA, I think, is just his defensive smarts because he's horrible on defense right now. So, yeah, maybe around $7 million for two years. I think that's, I think that'll get him.

Yeah, if we could offer him less, I probably would. The number in my head is closer to five or six. And it's really because I'm quite a bit lower on his defense than, I think, consensus. I think, well, maybe not. He's awful on defense. And I think he's, if we address our need for a center in this offseason, I don't know where we would do it, but I just feel like he might be the odd man out because, you know, he's really, he's genuinely awful. And again, people really like him because he's fun. He's providing this vertical spacing that we desperately need. But Isaiah Stewart is not falling out of the rotation. He's definitely proven in his absence that he is a valuable piece and that his defense is incredibly impactful. And I just think he is overall a better player to have on the floor than Bagley. The high-flying offense is fun. It's great that we finally have a lob threat for K to target,

but I don't think that he's a long-term piece necessarily, especially not in a significant role. Yeah. I think that this is a situation in which correlation doesn't necessarily, or does not imply causation that the pistons are playing better with Bagley. I think it's less that he's actually playing well and more that they now have something that there was a horrible gap that they had. nobody who could really play well in the pick and roll with Cade, no vertical spacer.

So, yeah, seven million, you know, especially this summer when they don't really need the caps phase. But, yeah, if they do get into the center on the team, like if they get picked 10 and draft Duren, you know, from Portland, Bagley's not really got much space at all unless he's just going to be a power forward, then you got to be a push. Huh? Yeah, you got to be. I don't like him there as a power forward. I don't think he has them. I don't think he's proven enough.

Yeah, yeah, do I? Yeah, I mean, he's shooting 18% and wide up in three is the season. And he's shooting a significantly higher percentage on three's wide open defenders more than six feet away. He's shooting a higher percentage on three's attempted with guys four to six feet away. But that's 25% of his three. The point is you can't, you got to be able to hit those threes at high percentage. You're wide open threes. And he's not only not doing that, he's been absolutely terrible.

So it's a little bit of a weird situation. But, you know, he'll get a shot next season. But I mean, if the pistons go out, for example, and sign D'Andre Aighton, it's like, okay, You know, Marvin, hopefully you can be a third string center. Maybe. I don't think Aiden's likely. Just for the record. No, me neither.

It would be nice, though. Yeah, perhaps. I discussed that later on. Yeah. All right. Next, which would you prefer a known commodity with high floor and limited upside or total unknown we think might have crazy upside? I think it's nice.

It's fun to say that you take the crazy upside. But I think guys who are, especially if you're going to talk about like a mid-range pick, because that's usually where those guys are going to be. They have crazy upside, but the flaws are. significant. So I was, again, like I mentioned, when this report about Jeremy Grant and the potential Pelicans pick came out, I was looking at the guys who were there. A lot of them are wings who are very athletic, but they can't shoot the three ball. I'd qualify that as crazy upside, but I would definitely rather have the guys who are projecting as good floor spacers, which would probably

make my answer the known commodities, you know, guys who, like, like, would you rather have Isaiah Livers or Marvin Bagley, I guess? If those guys were in this draft. I mean, Bagley had his issues. Like, you know about, yeah. Like, let's say you know what Marvin Bagley is or like his college work looks a lot more like his NBA work. You know. Oh, his college work.

I mean, his college work, Duke had to go to his own because he and one La Carta, Jr. couldn't defend the pick and roll. Yeah, and he still ended up as like a top five pick, like a consensus top five pick because of the athleticism and the upside. You know, that's the risk there. But I think I would probably take the role player who can, you know, who, who, who, who you have a much better, you have much more confidence that he's actually going to contribute. All right, fair enough. I would go with the, no, the only total unknown really is Shaden Sharp.

And this ties in the next question, which is Pissons Lane the third pick. And they can't trade down in this hypothetical Chet and Jabari are taken. Who do you pick? That's a situation in which I would strongly consider taking Shaden Sharp. Just because of his upside, it's a weird pick. It's not a kind of pick you've made in my season's draft. But, man, this is so weak up at the top. And this draft has such issues with finding guys who are both high upside and potentially decent fit with the pistons.

We only have high school from Shaden, but it's very promising. So, yeah. In that case, I would go with the unknown probably at number three. I maybe would consider Ivy, maybe, but I just have such. I have such misgivings about the Pistons' ability to make them work well with Cade and also develop them with Cade and the team. Developing two handlers in tandem is very dicey. You don't want to do it. I take Ivy and it's not much of a thought for me.

I don't like most of the guys who are outside of the top two. And that kind of leads us into the next question, which is if we fall somewhere like four to seven, who are the guys you'd want there? Let's say that Chet, Jabari, Paulo, and Ivy are off the board. Who do you like? In that case, it would be probably first Matheron. I spoke more highly.

I mean, I really liked the way Matherin has played, and obviously didn't get a ton of chance to watch him. earlier in the NCAA season. It would be Mathron or Keegan Murray. But that's just because things get so weak at this point. Yeah. I would agree with that. And then the other guy that I would tack on into that range would be Jalen Duren

at like number seven. That's like the beginning of where I would probably consider him. I do like the upside there defensively, athletically. And then I have, I don't know, I would give it like a 10 to 15, maybe more percent chance that he gets a serviceable mid-range jump shot. He's starting to work on that, but it's on very low volume. But the athletic upside there is just insane. I'm a big fan of that in terms of upside, you know, athleticism,

because I just think that's such a huge indicator of what you can do. And he's, like we, like we said, we desperately need athleticism in the front court. Yeah, the more athletic you are, the shorter the distance, you have to travel to become an effective NBA player. I mean, it's, and the higher ceiling you can see that we have. That would Duren, I think just that, again, I don't think it's a very smart basketball player. and I still have questions about this level of assertiveness. So it's just taking a traditional center who has those concerns.

It's this draft, man. Yeah. Like, look at who else is there. Yep. All right, folks, so that'll be it. Again, follow us on Twitter to the basket pod. Again, that's the word to, the O, not the letter. Excuse me, not the number.

Yeah, so as always, thanks for listening. We'll catch you in the next episode.