Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 95: 2022 NBA Draft Prospects - An In-Depth Look at Paolo Banchero

Episode Date: April 27, 2022

This episode takes a detailed look at consensus top-three draftee Paolo Banchero.  Draft player cards: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6ZaAu30Rb4ovrjY-8ifK6OXJGYvtZIEMad8DGWh9Zg/edit?usp=sharing

Welcome back, everybody, to Drive Into the Basket, part of the Basketball Podcast Network. I am Mike, joined as always by Tommy. How you doing, brother? I'm doing okay, man. I've been busy lately, kind of distracted. And then everything kind of started to let up today, which I was excited about. And right as things were starting to slow down, I was looking forward to some downtime. I got a text from my dentist saying that I'm getting my wisdom teeth pulled out in two days.

So I have that to look forward to. Wonderful. Been through that before. Not the funnest time, but fortunately, it's only, you're only laid out for a couple days. Yeah, I'm looking forward to the ice cream. Yeah, for me, I remember waking up at like 2 a.m. after the procedure to eat Rainbow Sherbert and watch an absolutely terrible movie. Whatever the case, this is going to be the first in our draft preview series,

leading up to the lottery, which is three weeks of the day away from the day we're recording this episode, and then leading up to the draft itself as well. we're going to get to the consensus top three prospects, and then if the Pistons should not end up in the top three, we'll go over some further prospects. We'll be in their draft range. And also, perhaps, some guys who the Pistons might have access to should they acquire another first-tron draft pick. And that's really wide open. I think, Tommy, you and I agree the Pistons have a lot more latitude to obtain another pick in the first than they did last summer when there was just very little in the first. way of assets and just first-round draft picks last year were so hard to get.

Right, absolutely. There were already rumors of the Pistons being lined up to get, I think the Pelicans pick before they really messed the Blazers up in that trade. They made the playoffs and, yeah, they turned that maybe a decent trade into a horrible trade. Yeah. Yeah, but I think there'll be, there's a decent chance that the Pistons will pick up an extra first and if we get the time, we're certainly going to talk about it. Yeah, absolutely.

Unfortunately, it's very doubt. and know that I know about that until draft nights, but, you know, you never know. Sometimes it breaks before the draft, like the Isaiah Stewart, the deal rather than we got the Pistons, the number 16 pick in the 2020 draft for Isaiah Stewart. That was broken, I think, a couple days before the draft. In any case, our first draft pile, profile, excuse me, will be on, well, all these guys, I think are interesting, but certainly one that will have a lot to talk about, and that is Paulo, Napoleon, James Boncaro.

Yeah, they'll spare you the Napoleon jokes. I mean, I've been over how, you know, surely this guy's choice of middle name demonstrates his complete lack of regard for democratic governments. You know, obviously, that's a joke, but I thought it was funny. Not a great culture fit for sure. Yeah. Yeah, this guy's going to want to be dictator over the entire team, you know. Yeah, so, I mean, you have guys like that. I mean, obviously, LeBron is one of them.

He's an effective dictator over the teams he's been part of, at least in Cleveland and then in LA. you know, obviously not a dictator, but it's a real shame when front offices have to surrender some influence to players. Like you had Kyrie saying, you know, Katie and I are here and we're going to play a role in the management of the team, something like that, which is a pretty galling thing to say after how the season went. But, yeah, that aside, I mean, the playoffs have been great so far, but that's not what we're here to talk about.

So Paulo Boncaro, consensus top three pick could go. anywhere in the top three came out of Duke. 610 forward, bear in mind that the NCAA typically measures in shoes and everybody rounds up NBA or NCAA, almost everybody anyway. So it's possible that Boncaro is short of 6'9. I think that's probably pretty likely without shoes. The NBA measures without shoes. 611 wing span. He is, geez, I've got 215 here. I believe it's 250. Yeah, it's closer to 250. Yeah. Oh, excuse me. I've actually been looking at the wrong stats here. Yeah, okay, wingspan, seven foot, one-half inch. We put together a series of player cards with a lot of information. We'll link to those. I don't know, maybe in this episode. Yeah, we've gotten to probably like the top 12 picks so far. In any case, those are going to have just a lot of info about the players. Really just a ton of info. So, yes, seven-foot and one-half inch wingspan, weighs 250, his age of the draft, about 19 and a half. At Duke started all 39 games he played, averaged about 17 points, eight rebounds, three assists, one steel, one block, and did that on 48% from the field, about 52 and a half percent from two,

34% from three, and scored at about 62% of the rim. And free throw is not great, 73%. So we're just going to go through his positives, his negatives, what we think are as probable comps, and then his fit with the pistons, what we believe to be his fit with the pistons. So, Paulo, I think, is a player. I mean, there are players you have to, there are players who are going to provide value in any system.

Jabari Smith's going to provide value in any system, for example. Then there are fit dependent players where their value may differ based on the state of the team. I believe Paulo is one of those. But let's go into his pluses. So what do you see as his positives? Or what do you see, you know, trade off, I suppose. What do you see as the first major positive for Pablo?

Yeah, I think the first thing that you'll see, and this is something that, you know, it really stands out when you watch his highlights is the footwork. It's excellent. That's the main way that he generates advantages, because when you watch him, this is really getting into his negatives, but he does it because he kind of lacks some athleticism. I think specifically here, he's compensating for a lack of burst, but the footwork is genuinely excellent. You know, he's very creative with it, a lot of upfakes and pivots. near the rim. And that's kind of how he scores there. And that kind of ties into another positive of Viz, which is he's a very dynamic score. But as far as the footwork goes, you know, he can take the

momentum of the ball on an inlet pass and when he's posting up and he can seamlessly spin into a move towards the basket. So just, one of the things that we really like about Cade is his body control. You know, there are guys who are just capable of generating serious advantages just by, you know, manipulating their defenders with their body. I think there's a pretty significant difference in the degree to which Paulo is able to do it and the way that Kate is able to do it. But nonetheless, it's a very strong positive. And it's one of the things that he does really, really well.

And then within that, his jab step is very strong. Yeah. I just realized we didn't go into a general player profile for Paulo. I think that's just worth establishing before we get into this. So my bet on that, there's not a ton to say about Paulo, really. I guess there is a significant amount to say, but as far as how he plays, he's a guy who really hunts mismatches in isolation.

He does the vast majority of his attacking from inside, and he does the vast majority of it with the ball in his hands. And sometimes hangs out on the perimeter and shoots, but that isolation offense is really, it really was his bread and butter in the NCAA. Like you said, Tommy, great footwork, definitely, and good instincts. And I think it's also worth noting that he's got that footwork

and agility despite his size. Again, he's got a really large frame that got 250 pounds and he's not overweight by any means. That's a pretty well-chiseled frame. So definitely particularly agile for his size and very strong. Absolutely. The body control in general is just really, really good. And he uses that strength that you mentioned functionally. Like he combines the strength with that footwork to finish in a lot of creative ways.

Like he will start out on the perimeter with the ball in his hands, take it inside, put his shoulder into a guy. And then when he does start to get slowed down, he can finish with the spin move near the basket. And when he ties it all together, it looks really, really impressive. Yeah, when it works out, definitely. It doesn't work out really at all times in the instability, but we'll get to that later. And we're talking about his weaknesses. So another major selling point for Paulo is his court vision passing offensive IQ, which is definitely good for his position.

I wouldn't call him elite necessarily as a passer. But he's fully capable when he generates those. mismatches. If somebody comes to help, he's likely to find a teammate, find an open teammate. He's a willing and able passer. So you have a guy who you can find mismatches for on the perimeter. He can go in. Somebody's going to have to help and he's probably going to find an open guy. Yep, absolutely. You'll hear about it when other people do draft coverage on Paula Bancara, but before he had a pretty substantial gross per. He played point guard, and you really see it. He had a really nice connection with Marker Williams, the center at Duke. He was able to

to, when he was taking inside, he could throw it up for lobs and they had a nice two-man game there. He's a capable, like, pick and roll ball handler. You know, I don't know how well that'll translate at the NBA, but for a big, it's very unique to see at the collegiate level. And as a role man, I know statistically he was decent. There are concerns there, but for sure, it just plays into how dynamic he is. That's one of the big selling points. And then, you know, we're a big fan of the drive-and-kick offense.

I think we started to see that kind of perpetuating. more in the piston season as it went on, and he is capable of making those kickout passes. When he sees that he's getting doubled, he does stop and he looks for the guy. Yeah. So that's another good sign. Absolutely. Yeah. Not only, like I said, not only able, but also willing.

You know, you have these guys who are just going to drive in and, you know, maybe they have a good opportunity to find a teammate. Maybe they can see that teammate, but their first inclination is score. he's able to adjust off the move and make the right decision. And that's definitely very valuable. It plays in also, as you said, Tommy, to how he operates off the drive. He can really think on his feet in that capacity. Also, an improving shooter who in the NCAA tournament showed some, you know,

budding acuity as a pull-up guy, definitely not great. Overall, I mean, he shot like 24% on pull-up threes throughout the season, nine of 38, and did a lot of pull-up two-point shooting as well, only around 40%. But, you know, he's got possible potential as a three-level score. I'd say maybe as a two-level score is likely. It's very, very difficult in the NBA to be a good pull-up two-point shooter on any sort of volume, very difficult, not just because of the defense, but also it's just a really hard shot to make efficient. Like the average effect of field go percentage in the NCAA is this last season, in general, just significantly lower than what you find in the NBA.

So, but potential to create offense also in the post. That was kind of a part of his game. He didn't utilize all that much, but probably will in the NBA with this size and strength and also can draw doubles there. He passes well out of doubles. You know, that's definitely a strength. And I feel like he could be an overall, you know, his ceiling as an overall versatile creator who attacks from the perimeter on high volume, especially against mismatches.

And ideally, can either score. or a dish to his teammates. And if he becomes a pull-up threat from three, that'll really enhance his game. Right. I'm glad that you mentioned the shooting. I listed it as a positive. He has a very dynamic scoring profile.

There's a variety of shot attempts, both spot up and ISO, and he's very comfortable taking shots from all of the floor, including mid-rames. Now, you can see when we get to his negatives, that's kind of a problem at times, but the fact that he's willing to take those shots and, you know, he seems pretty fearless and confident about it,

I think you can list that as a positive. And then, like you said, he was genuinely improving as a floor space from a three-point shooter. I don't think he, I want to say he finished around 34% on threes on the season, but over the last, you know, five, ten games,

he was starting to look better and he was trending in the right direction. Now, whether that carries into the NBA, obviously that's yet to be seen, but, you know, you can definitely credit him for, you know, the sheer amount of, he's a very dynamic player, bottom line. Yeah, definitely.

And, I mean, he was inconsistent earlier in the season and was not taking many threes. his volume increased significantly in the NCAA tournament. And he didn't do all that well when he was guarded on three-pointers pretty poorly, actually. But his percentage jumped significantly when he was unguarded to the tune of 25 of 59. Yeah, 29 of 59 from, excuse me, 25 and 59 from the field from three on those unguarded three. point attempts, which is, you know, up to 42%. That's good. Again, inconsistent. And again, didn't really attempt him on volume until the NCAA tournament, aside from rare examples.

Right. And that, yeah, that actually transitions me straight into, like, one of his key negatives. If you have anything more to say about Apollo in terms of what he does well, if not, we can move on to that. Yeah, I think we've approached it pretty well. Just a guy who could serve as, if things play out in his development could serve as an ineffective creator from the perimeter. And if he does well enough, maybe a guy you can base an offense around. But again, that's if he develops well enough, it's hard to find those guys. Right. Absolutely. You mentioned that his three-point shooting and his jumpers in general.

He shot a lot worse on them when they were contested. And that is certainly a concern that I have, especially going into the NBA. because one of the big question marks with Paulo is the athleticism. Because when you watch him, I mean, at the collegiate level, he looks like a fantastic athlete. And he is, obviously. But at the NBA, I have real concerns about how his game translates. Because he lacks burst to blow by guys in a straight line. He lacks the vertical to go up and be a lob threat.

I think he's positioned locked as a four because he doesn't have the... It can't protect the room. Yeah. Right. He's not a good rim protector, and he doesn't have the vertical spacing to be a lob threat consistently. You'll see in his highlight reels that he can get up, but a lot of times it's when he has an open driving lane or it's like a transition opportunity. And that's kind of like the Isaiah Stewart thing. Yeah, definitely.

I feel like if he were good NBA athletes, I mean, he would far in a way be the number one pick. I mean, if you could play the five, yeah, absolutely. Not only playing the five, I mean, if he were just a good NBA athlete, because, you know, you've got. In that case, like a guy who might comp to rookie Blake Griffin or Blake Griffin with his athleticism, not as good. I mean, Blake was an elite, elite, elite athlete coming into the NBA. I mean, he had a rare combination of size and strength and agility and basketball IQ, but we'll get to that in the comps. But, you know, maybe like if you had like a Chet who weighed 25 pounds more, maybe, you know, it would be real competition for the number one overall pick. But as things currently stand, if Powell were a good NBA athlete, I would rate him number one, period.

And that would feel a lot better about his fit on the Pistons. But definitely below average NBA half-court athlete. Don't be fooled. I advise people, don't be fooled by how people look in transition or how they look when they have a real runway in the half-court. And half-court athleticism, you're going to spend a vast majority every time in the half-court. Like we'll talk about Keegan Murray later on, maybe the Pistons don't do well.

You know, don't place highway in the lottery. He's another player who looks great in transition, but in the half-court, nowhere near is good. So, yeah, below average half-court athlete in terms of burst, in terms of top speed, in terms of leaping, definitely plays below the rim and relies a lot more in a strength and agility rather than explosiveness and speed. And that brings up for me some concerns about if his ISO offense will translate. Right, exactly. Yeah, also because, yeah, I mean, in his ISO offense, and again, that was his bread and butter, and it's high difficulty stuff that sometimes didn't work well in the NCAA in games in which he disappeared. it's going to be far more difficult against the defenses in the NBA that are drastically better, much better athletes, much stronger, and NBA defenses, which are immensely better than what you face in the NCAA.

Right, there was a story from Kay that actually earlier this season where he talked about how when he got to the league, he finally felt like his length really mattered because that extra athleticism length of the NBA, like it really takes away a lot of the, that little space that you have. Like he was talking about how at the college level, he didn't really feel like it was all that functional. It was helpful, but it didn't really matter as much. I feel like what happens with some players, especially like subpar athletes, like Paulo, when they, when they make that transition, you know, they really struggle with that next level. We saw it with Jaden Hardy in the G League ignite because, you know, in the, in high school, he was this fantastic four level score and he was able to get to the rim. But once he started playing against grown men.

Yeah, just to break in four level score is a new term. for guys who can pull up from far beyond a 3.1. Right. Yeah, but when he got to the Ignite and he tried to, you know, take it inside, he really, really struggled with the athleticism. He had a really tough time getting a shot off. And he started to improve. And I'm not saying that Paulo can't improve. He certainly plays with a fair level of IQ and creativity and maybe he is able to

compensate for it. But I think there is going to be a serious learning curve there. So that's a real concern for me, especially when it pertains to the, athleticism and the discussion there. I do worry about that. Yeah. If his is so often doesn't translate, his ceiling drops significantly.

And yeah, I think it cannot be emphasized enough. The enormous leap in the level of competition of the NBA, enormous. I mean, margins in the NBA are tiny. Like if a guy is just a little bit more athletic than you are, if a guy can get his shot off more quickly and it isn't as easily blocked and so on and so forth, I mean, margins are tiny.

And the number of, of guys in the NBA who can efficiently create an isolation. And if we're, yeah, it's just, it's very small. This is a very difficult thing to do in the NBA. And yeah, I think that just that has to be emphasized. It is a very difficult form of offense to make efficient, almost everybody in the league who can do so has been an all-star or is an all-star. And it has some particular quality.

And aside from like Luca and maybe one other guy I'm forgetting, that strikes me, I'm forgetting one other person. All of them above average athletes. Athleticism is very helpful quality to have. So he might struggle to contribute if his ISO offense doesn't translate. He'll find ways, I'm sure, but his ceiling will drop dramatically. Right. I'm concerned about certainly the scoring getting his jump shots off, but there's another aspect. He's a very physical player, and he likes to take it inside. But even at the college level, he had this problem with getting all the way to the hoop. And this is a guy who's very big, very

strong, very athletic for the NCAA, but oftentimes he got stopped short on drives. So if at the college level, you know, if regular guys are stopping him short and he has to finish with length and hook shots, what is he going to do when he gets to the NBA? Like, is he going to get pushed out farther? Is he going to get stops, like way farther out? I do worry about his ability because right now he's relying a lot on, you know, this footwork that we mentioned. It is the strength of his. He is a shifty, creative player and, you know, very creative on drives. He is able to to generate these advantages, but once these guys recover, are they going to be able to stop him before he's able to get off a good shot? I have real concerns there.

Yeah, absolutely. In the NCAA at times, you saw him get stopped short, and he would resort to like a turnaround mid-range jumper. Yeah, it's an ugly shot. You don't want him to take that in the league. In his highlight reel, you're going to see him knock that shot down. He takes it a lot because he gets stopped short a lot. And, you know, it looks nice when he makes it, but the percentages don't back up that shot and it is incredibly unlikely and incredibly difficult to make that, you know, efficient offense. Yeah, absolutely. And it's going to be something I think he'll need in the NBA because against these defenses,

I think he's going to have some trouble getting into the rim. And like the turnaround's pull up two-pointers is a very low efficiency shot. Like Kevin Durant would have issues with that shot. And he's arguably the most versatile shooter, one of the most versatile shooters the NBA's ever seen, maybe the most versatile. on Paulo, pull up two-pointers in the NCAA 40%. The NBA is going to be a lot more difficult. I mean, he's taking these jumpers from very close to the ground.

They will be easily blocked. Or he'll shoot them through very close contests. That's a tough shot. And I feel like mid-range offense is going to be important for him. The odds are against him in terms of making that efficient. So that's definitely a trouble. The other thing I think, and I know we agree on this, is the questions about his off-ball utility.

And this is an area in which, if he were a considerably better athlete, those concerns would go away. Unfortunately, he is what he is as an athlete. So, yeah, I know I'm talking at length here, but, oh, another thing to say about getting the rim, the fact that the guy plays below the rim makes it considerably more likely he's going to get swatted a fair amount by NBA caliber rim protectors. But off the ball, he doesn't have the height to, really run the pick and roll or the athleticism to

compensate for that. You see that with Isaiah Stuart. Paulo is a somewhat better leaper, but it's real tough to do that. If you can't play above the rim and you're not tall enough to compensate, barely nurse you as a role man. Like you said, Tommy is not a lot of threat. And as an offball mover, I don't think he's, I think he's going to have a tough time finding separation. So I think he's going to be limited as an offball player. Right. Just going back to the fit, and maybe this is really more of a general NBA fit, I don't really know what you do for the center situation or what's his ideal fit because like I said, he had a real, he had a real actual decent connection with Mark Williams, who is a general or a traditional center, like a big guy who can throw down lobs. Yeah, great, man, like huge lifespan and a pretty good believer.

Yep. And then, but at the same time, like if you want Paulo to have maximum space and the best chance that may be getting all the way to the rim, maybe you do want a spacing five. That's a tradeoff there. but it's kind of the consequence of having a guy who is, you know, pretty on ball and demands pretty high usage to be effective. You know, isn't all that athletic. So it's just another, another wrinkle. Absolutely. Like, in terms of getting to the basket and drawing double teams and passing through those, I mean, Cade found this at the NBA level. He's just that passing lanes in the NBA are less and they close really fast. And so if you have a center, and we saw this briefly with,

for example, last season with Blake Griffin. Last season's Blake Griffin with the business was very bad. But he would try his double team post-up. And basically, maybe this isn't quite as comparable. But yeah, this isn't quite as comparable. Whatever the case. I mean, if a center comes to help and that center is long, and he comes from the direction of the open man,

which he very well may do, because defenders in the NBA, for the most part, are pretty darn good. Well, compared to the NCAA anyway, then Paulo no longer has an open lane. but yeah, the center, I mean, I think having a spacing center would be very important for him to really do a style of offense. You also want a center who can catch lobs. And because he's not the greatest defender and might be a switch liability, you want to, I mean, you just want a defender in general who's going to be decent and the pistons are really working toward being a good defensive team, the front office. A number of centers who are lob threats, spacing, able to space the floor and able to play good defense, very, very, very small.

Right. And just to go back to what you said about, like, these advantages and these. He's passing lanes closing really quickly. I think that is going to be a little bit of a problem or at least an area for improvement because I think at times he was a little bit of a ball stopper. You know, a lot of times he was able to make the quick read, but there were times where he just, you know, he's a slow methodical player. He takes time to read the defense.

And, you know, when you take that moment to figure out where the open man is, a lot of times whatever advantage existed, it closes up. And now you're just, you know, you're getting mobbed. Maybe you're off balance. And Paul's a big guy, but, you know, it's still the NBA. He's going to have to deal with that physicality, and that's going to be part of the learning curve for him. Yeah, and like I said, I don't think Apollo, Apollo is not an elite passer. He's a good passer for his position, and he has very high offensive IQ and he can react on the fly.

But, like you said, yeah, I can take him that extra second. And like I said, margins in the NBA are very small and defenses, like not only defenders, but defenses are so much better than they are in the NCAA. But just going back, yeah, going back to the offball utility, it's like there's I think there should be major concerns about the fact that he's going to lose a tremendous amount without the ball in his hands. He's basically going to be reduced to a spot-up shooter because if you can't, if you're not a lot of threat, if you can't be the role man, and most importantly, there are plenty of guys, plenty of power forwards who can't do those things. But, you know, you get power forwards if they can't do those things, or in general, for the most part, these are guys you can beat their defenders off the ball, break into the interior and finish above the rim. and I don't think Powell was going to be able to find outball separation in the NBA. Right. Yep. I would agree with you.

And it's really that simple. I don't have a ton more to say. I mean, I would round out the offense by saying just that, you know, his shooting splits are not great. Like, he does a lot of things. And again, the highlight reels are very impressive, but the shooting splits really don't back up. Or they don't warrant that kind of usage. Certainly not the NBA, like where efficiency is king. So he's going to have to work on that. If he is going to be a dynamic three-level. shot maker, shot creator, whatever you want to say, he has to shoot better pretty much from everywhere. I think he was decent around the rim. But again, you know, he's a lot of what he's doing is just based off of, you know, the fact that he is bigger and longer and stronger than some these guys. And he, like, that's not to take away from the skill that he has. Like he has a, he has

great touch around the rim. But like you said, you know, the center is the defense. It's all going to get a lot better. So he's going to have to compensate for that, especially a guy who is so reliant on shiftiness and upfakes, whatever advantage. Like he's, in the NBA in his rookie year, he's going to get swatted, like hard, at least a few times at the rim. And he's going to have to learn to play around that. So that's another concern there. Yeah.

And just going, I agree. And going back to his off ball movement, I think you should, I think it should be stressed that off ball movement is a skill. I mean, it isn't, not a skill. It's a major asset, like guys who can, who can lose their man. I mean, it not only generates possibly an open opportunity for them. it unhinges the defense. Like the defense has to act to compensate.

Some guys you have to throw basically double, you have to have two defenders really focusing on them. They're really good off ball movers. You know, gravity is also a skill, but off ball movement is important. So, I mean, the inability to do that is an issue, particularly if you're a perimeter player. And you always want to have the most options you can

for unhinging a defense. That is the point of any offense, of course. I mean, that goes without saying. and player assets and coaching, but player assets go a major way toward being able to do that. So, yeah, I think another weakness that we should go over is his defense.

Yeah, absolutely. It's, I mean, people saw it and kind of noticed it in the Michigan State game that they played in the tournament. There were plays where he just kind of stopped trying really hard and just moments where he wasn't engaged defensively. So, I mean, this is really more about fit with the Pistons, but, you know, there's questions about his culture fit. I mean, like the Pistons right now,

Well, we'll save that for when we get to that. But it's just worth mentioning that defensively, he's not, like you said, not a great rim protector. He's not the most agile. I don't think he slides all that well. But, yeah, no, the defense is not going to be one of his calling cards. Yeah, I have real questions about his defensive IQ too. Maybe this is something he can be taught.

But even positioning to stop a player from taking a pull-up three, I mean, it's like that position even them was poor. But I think, well, first of all, I think if you're the Pistons and you, You have the goal of setting up a strong defensive starting vibe. You can kiss that goodbye if you're feeling ball in ball, not just his defensive intensity, which could change. Though I think it's kind of a red flag that you have players in college in the NCAA who are, despite being very young, are consummate competitors on both ends. So I also think it could be a switch liability against faster guards. He doesn't move his feet too well.

And, yeah, that's an issue. It's a weakness. So, yeah. Yeah, and I think finally, and this is definitely back to offense, I think he's a player who will not synergize well with any other player who's going to operate a lot with the ball in his hands. So, yeah, so we can move on to projected ceiling, projected floor. What do you see as sealing has? Well, I have him come to a guy who was all-NBA and, you know, All-Star, but this is all-contingent on, you know, everything coming together. And this is kind of like, you know, honestly, it's more of a closing statement.

than anything, but, you know, Paulo has a lot of tools. He's a very dynamic player. He does a lot of things. And if he actually plays well enough and shoots well enough to warrant the usage that he needs to be everything that he can be, yeah, you know, he's a great player. And especially in the tournament, like, he did a lot for his draft stock in the tournament because, you know, you got to see a lot of good things when he is playing heavily on ball. But again, it's all just going to come down to the shooting splits in my mind. Because I, I think he does a lot of things well, but when he's not taking good shots and he's not making a lot of shots, he really is a detriment to his teams.

But again, if it all comes together, I think All-Star, you know, multi-time All-Star is in the cards. But again, this is, I would say that he probably has the furthest to go to reach that, or to reach his ceiling, just because he has, he does a lot of things. Like I said, most dynamic, he has the beginnings of the most, or the beginnings of the most, or the beginnings of a lot of skills, certainly more than the other two guys in the top three, but he has a long way to go on a lot of these. Yeah. Yeah, probably an All-Star is where I would, maybe, like, maybe an all-N-B-A guy if everything

comes together. Yeah, I think his ceiling is, as a guy who can operate with the ball in high volume from the interior in the post, can score at least at two levels, the first level being pull-up threes and play make for his teammates really take advantage to that gravity. And I think that's what he's going to have to do in order to be at his best, because I think his best role, again, as a guy who really, his offense plays around him to allow him to maximize what he can offer. His floor, for me, is a guy who can really only operate well in the ball, but isn't worthwhile in that capacity. And that is a problem player.

That's the guy who's not shooting all that well, and he's not having a good time dealing with the defense and the very small windows. You know, if you, like, that might be Paul Bancaro, you know, in his first year or two in the league. But if by year three, he still hasn't figured it out, I think you have real concerns. Yeah. And I mean, I'm trying to think of a guy who really can only operate on the ball, but just isn't worthwhile. You know, whatever. So on to comps. I know that you have one you really like.

Yeah, I mean, well, yeah, it's Blake Griffin on the Pistons. And I think this is one that you've probably seen by now. I do like this comp. It kind of pivots around like his heavy use of shiftingness. And this is when I talk about Blake Griffin on the Pistons, I'm talking about, you know, that maybe that 18, 19 season. If you watch the highlights from, you know, that season and Paulos highlights. Definitely that season.

Yeah. Yeah. That's the one where Blake was at his best. You know, he was a very creative ball handler, a very dynamic player, heavy use of shiftingness and creative ball handling to compensate for lack of burst. That's a decent comp right there. Not a great three-point shooter, but good enough to, weren't coverage and closeouts.

And then he had some athleticism if he had a runway. It's not a perfect comp in my mind. I think Paula relies less on post-ups and more on footwork. But there are some rough similarities. Honestly, Paula is a very unique player. Like you were kind of struggling to find a guy who plays that way, it's because those guys really don't exist unless they are really, really good. So it's a risk to take Paulo if he doesn't get that good.

But I do like the 2019 Blake Riffin. Yeah, I think he could get there if, again, he has to be able to shoot those pull-up threes. That was an essential part of Blake's ability, just to score, but also to get to the basket, that basically players had to defend him very closely. Right. It warranted the double coverage. Yeah, not just the double coverage because Blake generally wasn't doubled on the perimeter. But, yeah, that'll be necessary.

I think he'll have to be a guy who can strict. line drive and get there. I think that actually the post game will be important for him. He can draw doubles there. That was also a big part of Blake's game. So I don't think Blake, Pistons, I think, Blake, Pistons, Blake is a decent comp. I think Julius Randall perhaps as well. But because Randall in his one good season, I mean, he hard regressed the season, to say the least. But he was a guy who could shoot the three well, who could shoot decently well from midrange, and could get to the basket based on just the threat of those. and was a pretty good passer, but, you know, when his shooting went away, I mean, he's become a

noticeably bad player. But I think that the, in both of those guys, like Griffin really imposed the ceiling on the pistons because he had to, his game required him to dominate possession, and his game required, and he was top dog, I mean, in every conceivable capacity on offense, like no doubt about it. And if you put another player next to him who had to have the ball, I mean, Blake, like when Reggie Jackson was running a pick and roll, Blake got injured weight, or was kind of sort of injured weight in the season, and Reggie took down more of more responsibility. And it reduced Griffin to a maximum salary spot-up shooter. That's a huge loss in utility.

Right. So, you know, that's the thing with Polo. I mean, you're really going to have to play around him, and you're going to have to have the right guys around him, and you're going to have to hope that he's good enough to warrant that role. Exactly. And that probably takes us to the fit with the pistons. Well, what I want to reiterate, just when it comes to off ball fit, I want to, I think a very good illustrative example is Clippers Griffin versus Pistons Griffin. So Clifford's Griffin was an absolutely elite athlete. I mean, I'm sure plenty of listeners remember his just insane dunks.

So, and he was explosive off the ball. He really went where he pleased. He was a perpetual lob threats. I mean, this guy was a pretty good off. And he formed a very good pick and roll duo with Chris Ball. because there were just all sorts of options. Chris Ball could find him on the ground. Chris Ball could find him off the lob. And even Blake could pass off the role. You can do that when you're not athletic. But his athleticism was really what made him a good off-ball player,

even when he couldn't shoot. So he could play next to Chris Ball in that capacity. He was still better when he was allowed to dominate possession. He was number three in MVP voting in 2013, 2014. That was a season in which Chris Ball missed a significant amount of time and Griffin shined. But he didn't lose a ton of utility when he was off the ball. He could play well with Chris Ball. ball, who admittedly is just a, you know, of course, spectacular all-run player, especially at that

stage of his career. When he went to Pistons, Griffin, he lost his athleticism, and that really hurt his off-ball utility. Couldn't serve as a role man, was not an explosive all-ball mover, was not a lot of threat. So I think that's just illustrative of how Apollo is going to struggle off the ball, particularly if he's playing next to a high possession player. And that definitely brings this is a fit. Yeah, absolutely. To say that it's not ideal, it's probably, maybe it's a bit of an understatement, at least in our opinion, we definitely don't want to give him the usage that he would need, because it would take away from Cade, who definitely deserves the high usage, definitely deserves the ball in his hands. And if you're trying to choose between those guys, it's going to become a

balancing act that I don't really want to try because you want to avoid that. Cade deserves it. You know, he was phenomenal this season. Yeah, definitely. So what teams really want to avoid? And like, it's important for any team to be more than the sum of its parts. And teams with just spectacular shooters can make it work, like multiple spectacular shooters, just kind of like, you know, I get the ball and you get the ball. Though these guys are generally excellent shooters off the ball anyway. But like the Nets, if they'd had all three, their big three last season, I think would have been pretty much unstoppable. But, like, this is where it comes down to, like, it's not just,

talent. It's actual on-court value. And I feel like Cade, who is at his best on the ball, and will be better off the ball than Paulo, but is definitely his best on the ball. And Paulo, who I think is going to be very short on off-ball utility. Yeah, it's a balancing act. Like, I get the ball, and then you get the ball, and then you get the ball, and then you get the ball, and very little synergy when you have players who are just going to lose that much off the ball. So poor value, I would say, and that's going to be an issue, probably. Right. Right. If Paulo ever became a good off ball player, like he became a good three-point shooter, that good three-level score. He could be a good secondary ball handler or a relief ball handler, and then he could earn

that usage that he probably needs. But again, even if he did get that good, yeah, it's, Cade is just, he's that guy, you know, I would rather have a guy who's like an elite three-point shooter. I think the way that I've been kind of thinking about lately has been, we have our guy who creates advantages. He could probably use a relief ball handler, so not a guy who's going to take the ball out of his hands a ton. But what we need now are guys who can finish the plays that Cade creates. And Paolo being, you know, not a great three-point shooter, not a great shooter in general, not a lob threat. It doesn't make a ton of sense to me if you're really high on, you know, the Luca type role for Cade and that high, high-usage heliocentric guy. So I don't love the fit there.

If you, like, it's like you were alluding to, if you are a big fan of just, taking the most talented guy. This is one where you're going to be mashing the fit together and just kind of hoping for the best. Maybe there is a way that those guys develop really good chemistry and they do make it work. Exactly. I don't see it naturally happening. It would take a lot of creativity and adjusted roles, you know, guys getting good at skills that they're really not known for. Well, I just don't think he has the assets to do it.

I think even if it becomes a high percentage spot-up shooter, you're still losing an enormous amount of what makes him a good player. like an enormous amount. Again, guy who's probably going to have trouble with getting off ball separation, who's not going to blast his way around an off ball screen, get the ball and finish above the rim, not a guy who's going to even be a lob threat.

Cuts are not a big source of offense in the NBA, and I think he'll have trouble with those. Like when we're talking not a big source of offense, guys who aren't centers and centers are just generally working along the baseline or catching lobs. the non-center, aside from Janus, whoever just the most points, is Aaron Gordon, who is highly athletic, an explosive ball mover, definitely a lot threat, and playing next to the Yolkich, who is going to find cutters better than anybody else in the league.

So I think even if Kate is not playing that totally heliocentric role, just the fact that he loses a lot off the ball and that Apollo, I think, will lose even more. It's going to make it impossible to really find a good value playing them together. and like I think if you have to say well if this this and this happens you know maybe the business can make it a good fit kind of says it's bad you know the fit is pretty likely to be bad even if he's a really good spot-up shooter so also I would say you're introducing a third athlete to the starting lineup alongside Bayton Dakin Bay and that hurts like that you do not want to render yourself with below average athleticism on a lineup wide level like that hurts right

And we, I also wanted to, this is kind of switching gears, but as long as we're talking about the fit with those guys, like this is like the culture. Let's just start there. Paulo not known as a great defender. He's not known for his defensive intensity. And like we said, I don't, I don't think he's a very versatile defender. And the pistons were very switch heavy this past season. So like if they are known as a team who's going to, you know, allow every switch to happen, I think Paulo could be the potential target of like, like you said, faster guards, and you don't want that. You're going to put a lot of pressure on whoever the five is. He was targeted at times on the pick and roll in the NCAA, like, what's some success. Right. So that's just another factor there.

So, again, just like as far as like natural fit with the pistons, I think what we should be looking for is guys who are, you know, versatile defenders and then can finish plays that Taked is creating. I don't think Paul really does either of those things naturally. There is a like a draft philosophy, you know, just take the best player available, you know, figure out the fit later, the idea of, you know, we're not good enough to be shooing away ceiling or, you know, high-level talent. But in this case, you know, given that we have our franchise cornerstone and we have a specific vision for him, I think that you should

maybe adjust that a little bit to build around that guy. Build a cohesive team, you know, like you said, Mike, a team that's greater than the sum of its parts. Yeah, it's, again, it comes down to not just talent, it comes down to on. court value. And like, I think it can become a little, I think it'd be easy to miss the forest for the trees and like the forest being on court value. You look at Paulo and say, man, this guy could really be really good in the NBA at creating offense. But, and like the Pistons need talent. But Kate is, is there. He's going to be the primary ball handler. He's presumably not going anywhere. You're going to play around him. And I just want to go back to athleticism. I mean, having good

athletic, at least not having poor athleticism on a lineup wide scale is very important. I mean, the ability to get off ball separation is very nice. The ability to run faster than your or at least as fast as your opponents, for example. I mean, that's very nice to have it. It hurts if you don't have it. We saw the pistons like early in the season. Play against, excuse me, play against the cavaliers. And the pistons were just fielding a super slow offball lineup, just a super slow lineup in general between Cade, Hayes, Bay, Stewart. like Grant was the only a good off-ball mover, the only really

explosive athlete against the Cavaliers who were just a super athletic team and they were running circles around the Pistons. But when it comes to Pistons, it just, you know, the philosophy of the team, I feel like Paulo's not really a Pistons guy, like you said, culture, but also

you talk about, you listen, and switching, like the Pistons may not always run a switch scheme, but I also just think that they really want a field a strong defensive lineup and Pollo's not going to be able to do that. Like, you look at Boston's lineup with a bunch of just good defenders, pretty athletic guys, just high IQ defenders. And like, you listen to Casey and Weaver talk about how they really want to have a strong defensive identity. That, you know, front court athleticism is important. Maybe you can

get away with that just at center. And also, you know, you really want to play with the ball in K-Tant. So maybe they deviate from that, but it's like, how do you make that work? Like, even, you know, exclusive of everything else, or not exclusive of everything else, because Kays can have the ball in Boncaro projects to lose so much off of it. Yeah. Do you have anything more to add on any of the fronts? Uh, no, not really. Uh, yeah, I think, I think, uh, I think we both have, uh, have gone through. Yeah. So yeah, honestly, honestly, yeah, all I would say it to close it out, I guess, would be that Paulo has the beginnings of a lot of things that make him a potentially very useful and dynamic player, but I don't like his fit on the pistons.

Everything that he, you know, his ceiling, it's all contingent on a lot of shooting issues being fixed. And again, the fit with Cade, it's not great in my mind. I would probably put him, I've gotten a little higher on him as I've done my research on him more for this episode specifically. Like we watched him all throughout the year. You can start to see, especially like those late improvements on the shooting. You can start to see more of it, but I still don't.

think I would put him top five on my board. I think right now he'd probably be six or seven. Yeah. And I mean, that might sound crazy, but yeah, I agree. I just, I really don't like his fit on the pistons. And I also think that, as I said about his ceiling, he's really going to, it's really going to depend, of course, on development, but I think he's going to be best as the primary option on his team, where he can just play on the ball as much as he wants. And the offense plays around him. And that's not going to happen on the pistons. needless to say. And now a quick word from our sponsor.

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See show notes for details. All right. Why don't we move on to some listener submitted questions to close out the episode? So number one, if, so number one, it's generally considered a week of draft. could we get more easily back into the first this year? And if Grant has moved, what picks would you look to get for him, assuming it's mostly picks as a return? Yeah, I don't know which picks I haven't taken a look at the lottery order and everything.

I think, well, no, I won't even say it. But I definitely think it's going to be easier to get into the first round this year. Totally. There are a few guys that I really, really like. One of the guys is Oshaya Baji. But he's just within the discussion of, you know, who fits best around Cade, guys who are like floor spacers. I think some of those guys exist.

athletic. This is a weird draft. It's a bunch of wings that can't shoot, a bunch of bigs who aren't super athletic, and then a bunch of guards who can't shoot. So that's why it's easier to get in or get another high pick. It's just because this draft isn't seen as super talented. But yeah, there's usually, you know, even in drafts that are looked at as not so talented, usually there are a few guys who just way outshine the expectations. I think Weaver's philosophy of just bringing in the guys who work the hardest has worked really well so far. So I'm optimistic on them, both acquiring another first rounder and making a decent pick with it. Yeah, I think it's going to be drastically easier to move into the first this season for two reasons.

Number one, the Pistons have a bona fide trade asset and grant. And really, there are multiple teams in the first round that could be interested. I don't feel able to predict it. But also last year, I mean, that was a really, really strong draft. Like even outside of the top 10, teams were not easily parting with first round picks. So, yeah, I think that it's going to be considerably easier to get back into the first. There are multiple scenarios with multiple teams. It's just so hard to predict because Grant, I think, it projects to be a fairly, I mean, he's an attractive trade asset, like a very attractive trade asset.

And, yeah, he projects to be pretty, probably we sought after. Who knows, maybe that won't happen. It didn't happen at the deadline according to Weaver. But it's also possible he'll stick around, depending on whom the person. distance draft. They don't want to, and it's been said, they don't want to have the starting lineup be all young players and grants, by all accounts, is, uh, he's quiet, but he's very well-liked and he's very much a veteran presence. If there's no good offers, just keep the guy. I'm not opposed. Yeah, definitely. So, uh, number, question number two, uh, which bottom teams do you believe?

The bottom is in far back and, uh, in the draft lottery, do you believe would not pick Chet number one? that's a tough one. I think Houston would definitely pick him number one. Orlando would definitely pick him number one. Bomba has been a real disappointment. He was drafted for his defensive upside and he's been nothing special there. Also his compete level, it's not good. Okay, see, we drafted number one.

Indiana possibly would not, depending on what they want to do with Turner moving forward. But even I think they would give him a look and just trade Turner. Just trade. Turner's trade value may be significantly, may not be great. He's very injury prone already has a bunch of wold. lower body injuries, has had significant injuries to both feet in the last two of the last three seasons. You know, this year, I don't remember which one it was, but in 2019, 2020, I also had a significant one. So, geez, even in the lottery. Yeah, after that it's Portland, they would take him.

Yeah, they would take him. Absolutely. He'd be great for Portland. Yeah. Cleveland's, maybe Cleveland, I mean, if they were to jump from 40, it's not the bottom of the league, but if they were to jump from 14 to 1, which is in a enormously. Can you imagine Jabari on that team? No, it's a zero point, yeah, exactly.

It's a 0.5% chance. And I think Cleveland, yeah, I don't see any situation. It's terrifying amount of length in defense. Yeah, I don't think there's any situation in which Cleveland would draft him for obvious reasons. So I would say there is no team, which is going to be high in the lottery odds, which that wouldn't take him. Number one, unless they just really liked Boncaro better. I don't think any team would pass up Chet for Jabari Smith. I would pass up.

Chet for Javari Smith. Okay, well, fair enough. Did you think it's likely that the Pistons would do it? No, I think there's articles coming out now, like with insert information that indicate that Chet is their guy. Yeah. So it's possible that Orlando would go with Bunkero. I think they would be the likelyest team to go with Bunkero over Chet.

That's the only scenario I can think of, actually, you know, I know I said Orlando would take him, but I think there's a possibility there. I don't think Houston would because, you know, if they, that Jalen Green is going to be a fixture there. And maybe Kevin Porter Jr., who knows. but Jalen will probably be a weak defender, I think, and Bunkero will be a pretty weak defender. They could fit fairly well together, but yeah, so I think Orlando would look at maybe a Bunkero. Okay, under what circumstances, if any, as a player like Bay, a movable asset is early into a rebuild,

and it's not necessarily with relation to what Bill Simmons said about Zion, which I think is outside the realm of reality. Yeah, well, this is an unpopular question, because we all love it. Bay. Like, he's, he's just, he's a great fit on the team. He's improved steadily. Absolutely workhorse just puts his head down and works. But yeah, I mean, if, if the right opportunity comes along, yeah, maybe you do move Bay. There's, like, I do not agree at all with the notion that Bay is untouchable. He's a very good player. We like him. And he could, I mean, I've said it probably three or four times this year where he keeps redefining his ceiling to me. Like, he keeps proving that he can be better than we thought he could be. But at the same time,

You know, if a really good player comes along. Yeah. Yeah, I think you make that, I don't know who that player would be, but he's not untouchable by any stretch. Yeah, I agree, he's not untouchable. And you'd really be wanting to look at a high-level star return. That would be Bay plus draft picks, I'm sure. I'm not sure.

I mean, this is a team that would be looking to reset with, and just acquired draft stock and maybe a foundational player going forward. I don't know if Bay could even be the centerpiece of that trade. I think he's just going to be worth more to the pistons than he, than he would be to another team. Right. Yeah, it's very difficult for me to think of any, like, trade that really makes sense. But, yeah.

No. The only thing I would have to say is that Bay is movable for the right pieces, but I don't see that happening. I think he's a piston for a long time. Yeah, I agree. Another one, more discussing Williamson. I don't have any desire to discuss Zion. I mean, honestly, if you were made available for that kind of package, it would be because the Pelicans runoff as it concluded either this health was a lost cause or that he was going to move on to a bigger.

market anyway. And in that case, I don't think you really want to take a risk on Zion, whom I felt from the beginning, would have to really keep his weight under optimal control in order to have any hope of being healthy through his 20s. I don't think he will be healthy through his 30s, no matter what his lower body injuries, the guy who has that blend of explosiveness and size are basically inevitable, I think, and he has done an awful job of keeping his weight at a healthy level with predictable consequences. Also a diva, which is not ideal with the player his age. while you're discussing Williamson, can you discuss what it would take for us to acquire John Morant? More than the Pistons could reasonably offer at this point.

Yeah, I mean, there's the fact that... I have no idea what that would be. Yeah, Memphis is a good team. They would have no desire to move on to John Morant from John Morant unless it were like maybe Kate Gunning him. And there's no way he's being trained. Even then, maybe not. I think the fit would also be awful because they're both. The Jod really depends on playing on the ball.

Yeah. So that's poor value. Okay. And let's see. I think we have one more. I mean, we have a joke question. Why is the future of this team of Brunson, Sexton, backcourt with Caden III? This is a question from Rod Hardcastle, a long-time listener and a core member of the Pistons Discord. My answer is, ha, ha, ha, you're a funny guy. I haven't done my research on Brunson yet, so I'll get back to you on that one, Rod. Yeah, I think, I don't think he was serious. And finally, why do you think so many draft experts are wrong to have Paulo in the top three? I've got a strong opinion on this. I think that at this stage, it's pretty much you've got a consensus top three.

And if the Pistons are picking number three and then these analysts have Boncaro and, excuse me, have Holmgren and Smith off the board, then it's just Bencaro by default. I really doubt that the good draft analysts, whatever. I don't want to put it that way. I don't think at this stage that I think you're really see the more deeply analytical mock drafts coming out after the lottery. I mean, there's not a lot of effort being put into those right now, not a lot of, not a lot of deep analysis at all, or hardly any from the people I would like to read, but there aren't very many of those. Yeah, I follow a lot of draft guys and like all throughout the year. And a lot of people are

really, really high on Bankero. And part of that is probably that they're not approaching it, the way that we are from like the pistons mentality like a lot of why we don't like him or we don't have him very high on our boards is because we don't like the fit with kade that's definitely a core thing but if you are high on maybe his ceiling like if you're the type of person who's just like top of the lottery you take the big swing uh like we said bank arrow's very dynamic he has a lot of the groundwork for a lot of good things you know a lot of it is just is the shooting going to come along you can see a reality where paula becomes a very, very good player.

It's just, is he going to reach that level? Yeah, on-ball to warrant the type of usage that he's going to require. On another team, that's not really a concern. On the Pistons with Cade Cunningham, it is. Well, it's a concern. It is a concern because they want to develop properly. But, yeah, the on-ball thing is much less of a concern for most teams. Yeah, exactly.

So I don't think they're wrong necessarily. It's just I think that they're approaching it from a different set of criteria. Yeah. I definitely agree. I think that's well put. Yeah, at this point, just there's very little look into team. There's very little thought into team fit. I mean, that'll come after the lottery.

All right. Closing thoughts, social media. Yeah, if you made it this far, once again, thank you guys so much for listening. We've really appreciated the engagement from you guys and the reviews. We always appreciate that type of feedback. If you're on Spotify, give us a rating if you're on Apple podcast. Leave a review and a rating as well.

If you're on Twitter, our handle is at to the basket pod. That's T-O. And definitely look for the player cards that Mike is, he said we. It's not we. Mike has put a ton of effort into making those. They're phenomenal looking and beautiful. Look into it. It's a great resource and we hope that you guys enjoy them.

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. It's something I've enjoyed doing definitely quite a bit of work. And as Tommy mentioned, yeah, it'd be great if you could subscribe to us on Twitter, really looking to ramp up our present on there and be more active going forward. So we will catch you in the next episode, which I believe will be about Jabari Smith. Yep, looks that way. Yep, we'll catch you then.