Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Episode 96: 2022 NBA Draft Prospects - An In-Depth Look at Jabari Smith Jr.

Episode Date: May 4, 2022

This episode, the second of our draft series, takes a detailed look at top-three 2022 Draft prospect Jabari Smith Jr.   Draft player cards: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6ZaAu30Rb4ovrjY-8ifK6OXJGYvtZIEMad8DGWh9Zg/edit?usp=sharing

Welcome back, everybody. You're listening to Drive into the Basket, part of the basketball podcast network. I am Mike joined, as always, by Tommy. And we are one week closer to the lottery. As of the night, we're recording this, it is 15 days away. That's May 17th. So definitely excitement building. Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, it's just a big deal. You know, it could be a pivotal moment for the franchise and a huge opportunity to draft and add the talent that this team desperately needs. So very, very big deal. Absolutely agree. So the Pistons will drop no further than seventh, and they've got a very small chance of drafting seven. So we'll see.

And speaking of high-end talent, today we're going to be talking about Jabari Smith, Jr. First and foremost, though, just a quick programming notes. I know some of you listen to us through Podbean. We have actually moved over to Megaphone. It's a different hosting service. So if you haven't following us on Podbean, consider listening to us on Spotify or Apple or any of us or other platforms instead. I'm not 100% sure that the episodes will, actually, I feel quite confident the episodes will not continue to be posted there now that we're on a different service.

All right. So moving forward, let's get right to it. Jabari Smith Jr., another top three, a consensus top three overall pick, guy with a lot of talent, but also some flaws. So just getting into what he did in the NCAA, played for Auburn team. I think they went out in the Sweet 16. Tupari incidentally had an awful game. But he played about 29 minutes per game, started all 34 games, about 17 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2 assists. And excellent shooter from 3 to the tune of 42% on mostly guarded 3-pointers. Not so good at all from 2-point range, which again we'll get into. But as far as his measurements, 6'10, like we said with Paulo, entirely possible.

whether they do 6'9 or even a little bit below. The NCAA measures and shoes, and everybody rounds up for the most part, just to make their players look better. So listed at 610, 7-4-1 wingspan, 220 pounds, he'll be just over 19 at the time of the draft. So as far as how he operates, he's a shooter. He's a guy who in the NCAA did virtually all of his good offense

from the three-point line. Definitely a killer catch-and-shoe guy. He showed some acuity at shooting in isolation, and yeah, pretty much just a shooter who struggled within the arc, struggled to get to the basket. But as a shooter, excellent for your shooter. So Tommy, why don't you start? What's something that you really like about him?

I know what the answer is going to be, but let's go ahead with it anyway. Yeah, yeah, I mean, it's the reason that he started off the draft cycle as like between, like, around like a top 10 guy, but as it went on, like he pretty quickly became, you know, this consensus top five and then top three guy. Like, he really, really played well. the whole year, despite that poor showing in that elimination game for Auburn. But it's like you said, it comes down to the shooting. He was a 42% three-point shooter.

And it's this thing that, it's one thing that he does well, but he does it well in so many different ways, if that makes sense. Like, he's an excellent spot-up shooter. And that's incredibly valuable. The type of guy who can just be a target, hands ready to put up a quick shot, lower usage and, you know, for a team that just needs spacing, that's invaluable. It definitely begins with the shooting exactly like you said. I would say the team needs more than spacing right now, but it's definitely a major need. So on the subject of the shooting, absolutely true,

great shot for him. There's a fluid, quick release, high release point, good elevation. He doesn't require much time together or depend even on being fully set. You can liken this a little bit to not in terms of shot for him, which they're drastically different. But you notice that Bay can get the ball, just bring it over across his body very quickly and get a shot off. Usually bringing the ball across the player's body is a bad thing. Bay does it well. Jabari Smith, maybe not quite as well, but he doesn't need much time to gather and he doesn't

really need to be fully set. Those are good things. Gives you a better shot of, especially in the NBA, a better chance of getting the shot off. Another thing, he has very little difficulty getting his shot off through contests, also valuable. And his release, he's tall enough and his release point is so high that he can simply shoot over smaller players. He's got to be played very close at the three point line because really anything but a complete close out, he'll probably get a good opportunity. Right. Absolutely.

I'm so, I'm glad that you mentioned that because he's not known as a self-creator, but on the perimeter, he has some skills there. He has a few go-to moves, like a jab step, the one dribble pull-up, and then like you said, that height, it's very functional for him when he's trying to get his shot off because he's so long and tall that he can just shoot over guys, exactly like you said. So even when he has these really tight contests, he's confident enough to just elevate and put it up over these guys. And what you'll see sometimes,

and this isn't like a true comp, so I'm not going to save this for later, but some people compare him to Kevin Durant solely off of that because he was able to get that shot off. Yeah, exactly. But in that one sense, like he is able to get a shot off pretty effortlessly over height and length. So if that translates to the NBA, it's huge.

Yeah, I don't see any reason by any reason why I wouldn't translate to the NBA. I mean, it's just the same to be a skill that he has. Yeah. Yeah, on the perimeter, he's able to get a shot off in a variety of ways. And he's even, like, he was even displaying a little bit of like pick and pop at Auburn. Like he was able to set screens, relocate, catch the ball and put it up for a good shot. So it's all very encouraging stuff. He has just a variety of ways that he's going to get the three-point shot off.

And that's incredibly valuable. Absolutely, it is. Yeah, great perimeter shooter off the catch. Again, promising perimeter shooter in isolation, promising pull-up game from three in general, solid in the pick and pop, also good at as a trailing three-point shooter in transition. In terms of just pure shooting numbers on the catch,

he was at 57% from three when the defense was dumb enough to leave him unguarded, which was very rarely. Right. He'll make you pay. Yeah, he'll make you pay, absolutely. He was a focus for every defense's game plan. He was always guarded. about three quarters of his threes were guarded.

That's an unusually high amount. Sure, part of it is that he was willing to take shots through contest, whereas a lot of other players will just kick it out to somebody else. There's not a attempt a shot. But the fact that he only attempted 35 unguarded threes all season on the catch is a pretty good indication of how close he was being played. Right. And when he was guarded, the respect that he gets on the program, for sure.

Yeah, when he was guarded around 37%, and he took a lot of difficult shots. but that brings me over to another positive, which is that even though he was almost exclusively did his good work in the three-point line, he nonetheless drew a significant amount of gravity because his ability is a shooter and the need to not give him any space.

So basically he's likely to be a significant consideration for the defense in the NBA, even if he's nothing more than the perimeter shooter, because you have to stay close to him, and also matchups are going to be an issue because if you get him a good switch on the perimeter, if he gets switched onto the opposing point guard, for example, he's just going to shoot over the guy. I mean, he's got that elevation. He's got that high release point.

So he's going to be a matchup consideration no matter what, more so I would say even more so than like a guy like Joe Harris, for example, who is a good shooter, but you don't really have to worry too much about who you're matching up on him. You just have to worry about him getting open. Right, absolutely. And, you know, in that same vein, there are signs and there have been instances where he's kind of flashing more advanced perimeter shots in his arsenal, like three is off of difficult movement or off screens. And I think that'll be like the next step for him. You know, it's this one thing that he does very, very well.

And the more ways he's able to get that shot off, the more deadly he'll be from there. But, you know, like it looks identical, the way that he gets this shot off. Like a lot of players, you know, when you get them leaning and you get them shooting off of movement, their form, you know, takes a dive. But Jabari is very consistent throughout.

And it's not even that he, is like super rigid all the way around with like his footwork. But, you know, his, in terms of like his release, very consistent all the way through. Bottery. Looks beautiful. Yeah, he is just an excellent pure shooter. And I don't see the slightest bit of reason why this wouldn't translate super well to the NBA. He's just a guy who has it as a shooter.

He, uh, yeah, he is a pure shooter. I don't know, I just said that. But you don't really see guys often to come in where you're like, okay, well, you have this guy. And you can be certain that this skill is going to translate well. Like as a shooter, you can feel fairly confident with a lot of guys, but he's just a pure three-point shooter and just so effortlessly, you know, mechanically sound that you can feel very certain about that. So I also showed some glimmers of a post-up game against size mismatches.

He's got the proper movements and footwork in terms of spin and fadeaway jump shots off the dribble. You know, he can, you know, he can, you know, He's got all the tools to make it work. He's just not really hitting him at a high percentage yet. But, yeah, I mean, if you don't have anything further to say about the shot, I mean, we're going to move on to his defense. Just a long, strong, smart, switchable and hardworking defender with good ladder mobility. So this is a guy I think has a high defensive floor and a good defensive ceiling at the NBA level.

Absolutely. Yeah, you mentioned the wingspan. Like, you'll see it. It's functional. And he makes full use of it to disrupt passing. lane, swipe at the ball, and just apply pressure, and that's fantastic. And then, you know, when he's on the ball, he moves his feet really, really well. And one of the things that I noticed immediately, like, the first time that I watched

his highlights, like, months ago, he gets very low in his stance, and he puts a lot of effort in on defense, the defensive intensity. Like, he likes to be a dog on defense. He takes pride in it. And that's something that, it was a concern that we had with Paulo. Like, maybe it's not something that a lot of guys necessarily want. or just naturally, you know, they want to, you know, get in the guy's face and make things really, really difficult for them. That is not a problem with Jabari.

Like you can tell, he wants to make things, he wants to give the guys problems on defense. Yeah, definitely. It's important to have guys who take pride on that. I mean, unfortunately, you have quite a bit of talent. I wouldn't say quite a bit of it in the NBA, but definitely guys in the NCAA who just want to make their mark on offense. It's a very good sign for a player's character when he wants to do well on defense. It was something we saw with Scott. Scottie Barnes, for example, who was just very committed to being very good on both sides of the ball, working very hard on both sides of the ball.

And, of course, Scotty Barnes has like the A plus attitude that you want every player in the NBA to have. But it's definitely a good sign in terms of maturity and in terms of work ethic and attitude about which we've only heard good things in terms of all of those things and his coachability. Right, absolutely. Like, it's just one of the things that I noticed, you know, when he does force a turnover or, When he makes a good defensive play, he's animated, he's excited. Like you can tell he's really, really enjoying himself on defense. And you just can't teach that. No, you can't.

And also, for those of you've been watching the playoffs, I mean, the postseason in the NBA has always been a bit of a different beast. Well, maybe not always, but certainly in recent years. And the NBA has been gravitating toward a system of, you know, on offense you're talking about teams that are constantly, hunting for mismatches. I mean, the Warriors have been doing that since Steve Kerr showed up. But teams are increasingly going small, going for lineups with maximum speed,

maximum spacing, and just haunting mismatches on switches. So certain players are just immediately just axed out from playing in the playoffs. Like Stephen Adams, who was the starting center for a really good team, for a really good team, actually in the regular season, as played 30 minutes in the playoffs, because he just, he couldn't play against the Timberwolves because you just, get DeAngelo Russell switched on him, in particular, like goodness forbid, you get Anthony Edwards switched on to him, and he's toast. And teams in the playoffs will attack every single mismatch they can. Any good coach will ruthlessly exploit whatever weakness the opposition has to a degree

substantially greater than in the regular season. So Jabari is the kind of player who can come in, he can provide great spacing. He's a switchable defender. He is not a liability by any means. and he's just a plug-in-play, a player that you can absolutely, you know, it's going to be a valuable player altogether, but definitely, I would say, a valuable postseason player who can make the big shots and is, you know, it's never going to have to be taken off the floor. Yeah, absolutely. And it's good that you mentioned that because, one, yeah, it is all about switching in the NBA

right now. And in those moments where, you know, Jabari gets switched onto the ball or the ball gets to the guy that Jabari is defensive. defending. He's going to get in their face and try to force them to get rid of it. And then there are times where guys are going to try to catch and then immediately attack and go for a drive. And Jabari is very capable there. He can stop guys from getting to the rim. And if they do turn that into a post up, he's very good at walling up and stopping those drives and making life difficult there. So very versatile defender. Yeah, he's smart. He's not raw

at all. Some guys coming out of college who see it like with the defensive potential. I can Mark Williams, for example, but Williams, who moves his feet pretty well, and profiles is a very solid rim protector, can still get caught doing, like, you know, get caught biting on pump fakes or whatever else. I mean, a lot of defenders coming out of the NCAA or raw, and some of them get it together in the NBA, and some of them don't. It's great to see a guy who is very refined on defense already. And just coming back to his character qualities, I mean, that this is the kind of, you know, player whom Troy Weaver would love. It's going back to what we discussed in an episode a couple of weeks ago.

I mean, Weaver in his end of season, like you said at Tommy, like he drafts people, not players, I think he said that. And he was very unequivocal in the press conference about how he is not willing to shortcut the process by bringing in guys who are not of sound character. And this is definitely a guy who I think would absolutely fit his specifications. And you want as many guys like this as possible who can set the tone. obviously you want them to be talented also that's important yeah yeah yeah no uh for sure and i mean i mean you already kind of alluded to this i mean we we it talked it seems like we're just talking about

you know a very you know one-dimensional three and d player but there are the beginnings of more there like he does have some ability inside the arc it's raw we like there are flashes of him actually being able to drive inside but we're going to talk about that soon when we get to his negatives and then he has some skill as an isolation player inside the arc. Like he has like a turnaround jumper. And again, with that length and that height,

he is able to make that shot sometimes. But right now it's just the beginnings of it. Right. Yeah, definitely. So it's the, like maybe it's something that he's never able to make efficient. And in that case, you cut it out.

But already he has the absolute base of a very strong three-point shooter and a very willing and capable and versatile defender. So great things for Jabari Smith-Jew. Yeah, and you've got a high floor player. You know, you can be, you can be confident in picking him and knowing that you're going to get good value out of him. Also, he's the rare sort of role player, maybe not rare, but uncommon and invaluable, who will find more or less equal value in any, even just on the basis of his three-point shooting

and his defense will find value, more or less equal value in any system, in any situation. I mean, there is no situation in which it won't make sense to have him on the floor. You know, most players have some degree of fit dependency of their value or some trait, whether it be poor size, you know, poor defense, their liability in some way. That'll reduce their value in certain situations. But Nachibari, great shooter, excellent size, switchable defender. And so, yeah, you can basically plug him in anywhere and expect him to provide good value. Again, providing a shot translates, and this is just one player you look at, I feel like,

and say that the chances of his shooting not translating are extremely low. So definitely a safe pick. Now the question is, you know, you might listen to you might be listening and saying, well, yeah, we haven't really talked too much about his interior shooting. If we're ready to transition to cons, your question is, what else can he do? Right, absolutely. And we've kind of already alluded to it. He's not good inside.

And a big part of it is poor driving ability. And it stems from, I think, two things. One, he doesn't have a great first step. And two, he's not very very. agile with the ball in his hands. We were talking before the show, and the way that I tried to comp it was he lacks the fluidity that a guy like Jason Tatum has. He plays a little bit stiff sometimes, and this is a serious problem, and it's something he's definitely going to have to work on when he gets to the NBA. And when I factor in his ceiling and try to rank him, I'm

kind of banking on him eventually being able to take care of this problem, because for how good his three-point shot is. He is contested tightly. Nobody's going to leave him alone. And if you're going to close out on him, you're going to close out hard because right now, he's not going to attack close-outs. He's not going to make you pay if you over-commit. He's willing to hold the ball and then just put the ball up for a maybe more difficult shot. Whereas a guy, his size, his, like, he's perfectly strong. He's very athletic and he's shown flashes of ability to drive and finish strong. He just doesn't. So that's what leads to that poor field goal percentage at the rim, and he just doesn't put much pressure on the rim in general right now.

Yeah, hardly any, really. He struggles to get there. It's like you said, his first step isn't great. He's not an athletic player. I mean, he's a guy with a decent amount of functional athleticism, but definitely explosiveness isn't there. He's definitely stiff in terms of his posture. Maybe that can change, but struggle to get to the rim.

He sank his layups at only 52% in the NCAA that's bad, and didn't even attack close outs very well. I would mention specifically his handle, which is bad, just bad. He, and this is a player, like usually you look at a player and say, okay, well, you know, he's got kind of the glimmers of, you know, maybe you can improve into having a decent handle. What's holding Jabari back from being the consensus number and overall pick is that he showed like nothing.

Like his handle was awful. Yeah. And he showed very little as a creator. I mean, he was able to kind of get to that spot and get that pull-up jumper off and get that turnaround jumper off. He was very bad. I mean, this is a guy. He actually shot more poorly on two-point jumpers than on three-point jumpers, 42% from 3.37% from 2-point jumpers. And he's 6-10.

That's wild. Yeah, I mean, part of it was that a lot more of them are self-created. But even on pull-up shooting, he shot 41.5% on 3, from 3, on 53 attempts. he shot 38% on 68 attempts from two. And part of it, again, I mean, some of his threes were in transition, but he is just an awful shooter from inside the arc. And in terms of creating, your question is, is he ever going to get it together?

Because those inside the arc opportunities that he's going to be taking probably as a pure shooter, I don't know if he'll ever excel again in the rim, those are tough opportunities. It's really hard for anybody to make those efficient. And if you're not sinking those at like, you know, the high 40s. I think the half, I think half court deficiency in the NBA, this season was like 0.96 points per possession, maybe a little bit higher. So if you're attempting these opportunities, I mean, you're really, like you're difficult two-point offense. I mean, you want to be in a high

40s. Otherwise, it's not really super worth attempting them. And because he's not great at gaining separation, he's probably going to be hotly contested shots, or closely contested, excuse me. Right. It would be nice if he if he was able to compensate for it somehow, like with his strength. Like he has functional athleticism. Like he is a strong player. He probably could be more physical. But if he just, if he worked around it somehow,

because I think it's a little bit of a mental thing right now, but if he had like that rip-through move to start drives like Sadiq, maybe then he could, he'd be able to attack these closeouts. Or, you know, if he gets the ball on the perimeter and he has the beginnings of a driving lane, maybe then he could get going. He just needs to work around that lack of a first step somehow.

But I think it's a combination of a poor first step and aversion to contact. Yeah, maybe aversion to contact, but I feel like when he drives into the lane and attempts those difficult jumpers, he is driving in a fairly close coverage, and he's willing to accept that. I don't know how much of his aversion. I'm not sure if the guy is an aversion to contact. I mean, it really wouldn't fit with his approach to the game. I think that his difficulty getting into the rim is, again, largely just the lack of explosiveness and just the awful handle. I mean, it was like actually awful handle.

I mean, again, you think about this guy and you look that he just seems to be this great pure shooter. You think, you know, okay, probably get it together inside the arc. But the handle is just awful. I mean, and that could really hurt, especially if you're playing against much more difficult defenses who are going to do a much better job of poking the ball away and stripping it. So that much doesn't look great. Yeah, the post-ups looked all right, the matchup, the post-ups against bad matchups, bad matchups for the defender. So that would be helpful.

But basically, his game died in the NCAA when his three wasn't falling, which is rare, but it happened. It happened in the elimination game where he went one and eight, and that was it. Right, and right now, I mean, at least for Auburn, he was the best play on their team. He's going to get a lot of pressure. But maybe in the NBA, if he has more talented players around him, that'll become less of an issue. Maybe there are going to be times, more times, rather, where he is.

getting a little bit more space, like his defender is going to sag off a little bit more. I still think they're going to close out hard, but maybe it'll be a mental thing for him. I really do think that there is just some mental aversion to contact. Like, there were really only, like, there's only like a couple times that I can remember where he actually, like, drove inside and, like, accepted contact hard. And it's like, it's weird because he's perfectly willing to do it, but he just doesn't. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I'm not even sure if, I mean, he could have all the willingness in the world to accept

contact and still just that handle and that stiff posture might undo him period he could develop but yeah he'll be trying to develop sorry to interrupt he'll be trying to develop the thing is against much better opposition than you face in the NCAA right hopefully there's a bit of of a give and take there if he has decent players around him and he's less of a focus but you mentioned the post-ups and i know that he's good at it but i feel like there were a lot of times where he when he would drive inside it should have been like he takes it all the way to the hoop but he would turn it into a post-up because I think he was not ready to take that gamble on contact. I genuinely think it could be a fear of giving away charges or like guys are going to get in front

of him and he's not going to be agile enough or I don't know what the word is for it, just not able to stop fast enough, maybe a little out of control if he's trying to move that type of size around aggressively. So maybe that's it, but it's regardless. It's going to have to be something that he works on because he has this golden opportunity because he is absolutely respected as a three-point shooter. He needs to be able to take advantage of the closeouts and the respect that he's going to get there

and make the opposition pay on the inside. Yeah, and conceivably, he could do that very well. It needs to be closely covered. That makes driving a lot easier when the guy is not, when your defender is not backed off on you. Even if you can just attack closeouts and make the right pass, you know, that's valuable. You can parley the gravity that you attract into unhinging the defense.

I mean, this brings me to another weakness of his. He showed very poor jobs as a passer in the NCAA in terms of his ability to make the right reads and also just to make smart passes and also accurate passes. I mean, this was an over weakness for him in the NCAA. Right. We did not see much driving kick from him. And that kind of leads to another problem, which is that he's too ISO-reliant at times. I mean, he's efficient enough that his own numbers probably won't suffer,

but it's not great for team ball movement. And in that same vein, I think he's a lot. little bit of a ball stopper at times. Again, he was the best player at Auburn. They relied on him a lot. But he kind of takes a moment to stop, catch, and kind of assess if he has a shot that he likes. And you kind of alluded to the fact that a lot of his shots were difficult. I think a big part of it is that he's just not a great passer. But if he takes that moment, you know, those windows where you do have an advantage or somebody's open when they're moving, those windows are going to close up quickly if you don't keep the ball moving. So certainly another thing that I think Jabari is

going to have to work on is the passing, both recognizing the advantages that are there. Yeah. I don't agree that he takes a second to evaluate when he gets the ball. I feel like he shoots it pretty decisively, but I just don't know if he has, like, Nixis can technically be learned, and he is young, and he's playing in the NCAA, and this is just the best way he dove, and him just taking the shop is going to be the high, it's going to be a very good percentage opportunity, but it takes a certain point. I mean, I feel like it could be dependent.

dependent on where he is on the floor. Like if he's on the interior, I notice that, and especially, like now that I'm thinking about, on the interior, I feel like he held the ball a lot. Like, he would keep the ball away from his defender and he'd hold it. But yeah, you're right. On the perimeter, certainly. Like, if he had space, he put it up quickly.

Even if he didn't have space, he put it up very quickly. That's not a bad, yeah, it's not a bad shot. I mean, if you can get the shot out and you hit it at 37%. I mean, that's a high efficiency shot. I mean, that's what he's shot on guard at threes. And you can presume that he's going to get a lot more in the way of uncontested books. in the NBA, just running a better offense with better players, and the team will be hunting for good opportunities for him. So, though, just the passing, like, hopefully he can at least learn to

attack those closeouts, even if he doesn't get all the way to the basket. Hopefully, you can get to the point where defenses respect him, and then you have to make the right pass. Just the drive and kick is a very important thing in the NBA, and it's something, it's no longer the realm of just guards. It's your average player can make these basic reasons. and make the right passes. So if he can't do that, that's a problem. Right. Right now he kind of lacks the drive and the kick.

He just kind of turns it into a post-up. And like you said, it's not necessarily a bad shot. But, you know, for a team or an offensive system that is reliant on a better shot being created by continuous driving kick, maybe that's not the best thing. I'd say it's a very bad thing. I mean, just posting up. And the NBA, you're unlikely. I mean, especially if you're posting up, like, if it's the center coming to help,

then good luck, Jabari Smith, unless you're excellent at this. because it's going to be very hard to make that shot efficient. It's hard for almost anybody to make that shot efficient. I think 2LMB on post-up opportunities is, I think like 1.05 points per possession. Maybe it's 1.1. I mean, that's the equivalent of like 30, I don't know, like 30, if it's the former number,

it's like between, you know, like run 35% from three. And that's self-created. And MB does a great job at those. And again, that's an efficient shot. But my point is that, I mean, he's also just the Titan in the post. I mean, post office is just really tough to make efficient in the NBA. And there's almost always going to be a better opportunity than Jabari putting up a shot,

which you probably hit in the mid-40s. So, yeah, it's just, like I know we both like to look back to the Raptors championship team in 2019, in which really Kauai was able to generate a good opportunity for teammates just based on the gravity that he attracted. And you just make a basic kick, generally off to his left. And you get an open three. I mean, the driving kick is just a basic thing now. And if you can't do it, it's a significant weakness. Yep, absolutely.

So, I mean, if you want to sum up his weaknesses, that's kind of it. He lacks the drive. He's not able to take advantage of the gravity that he has. And then if he has that read, he needs to work on it. Even if it just starts off with like a basic pass, he needs to be able to get rid of the ball on the move and not turn it over. Yeah. I mean, what I would say as far as this floor, like if he can't get it together

within the arc. And I don't think it's likely that he'll be completely unable to get it together because he's just such a good shooter. I mean, he's got it as a shooter, definitely. But if that doesn't happen, then you're topping off probably as an elite perimeter shooter and a good defender. I don't think he's going to be elite defender. It's just, to be an elite defender. You've got to have pretty darn quick feet. And I think he'll be a good defender, but he's not like the, you know, Mikhail Bridges type who is just super fast in his feet. So that elite three points shooting, and good defender, it's a valuable player, but it is a poor return off of a top three pick. And I would say that is his con in a nutshell, that if this is all he is, then it's nice, but you're really hoping

for much better than that from a top three pick, even in a draft like this. Right. I am optimistic personally that he is going to get the drive together. I haven't really thought about the passing too much, but we have seen instances where he is ferocious and he is attacking. I'm not sure what the difference is for him. Maybe it's just a matter of having an open driving lane, but once he gets there, if he has, you know, like a full head of steam, he is more than willing to go up and throw it down

on a guy. So there's some optimism there. I think, like, when I think about what I think Jabari Smith is going to be, I factor that in, and I am bullish on that. Yeah, I'm not so bullish on that. I mean, as far as going up and finishing it again, I mean, he's not the greatest, he doesn't have the greatest verticality either, which hurts, of course, he can't finish above the rim. But again, not a bad athlete, but this is more just within, within the realm of what he's good at. I mean, he's a lead shooter, and you can kind of accept worse athleticism there. not a bad athlete, doesn't hurt him on defense, does hurt his first step. I think if you find success in the arc, it's going to be as a two-point shooter.

A guy you can pull up, a guy who can get these fadeaways off, and that's a very valuable form of offense if you can make it efficient. And that is the big if. But, you know, just the lanes close so quickly, driving lanes in the NBA, and that just help is going to have time to get there. And it's fine if you can exploit that by making the right pass. Can Jabari do that? Who knows?

So that's definitely a question. And again, I think you got a high floor there, but it would probably be a very disappointing return on a top three pick. If, I mean, if he can get the two-point offense, the two-point jumpers working, and then cool. And I think he stands a good chance of doing it. But if he can't, again, not a great return on the pick. So, yeah, we can move on just to the outlook in general then. I mean, what do you think? I just said that he's going to improve on the drive.

I mean, other areas in which you feel confident that he's going to improve? Yeah, I mean, if it's just his. ability to make that simple read, that simple driving kick. I don't know if I'm optimistic on that, truthfully. I haven't thought about it very much, but that's probably the swing skill, in my opinion. Like, I think as he is right now, if he's just getting, you know, that high percentage three-point shot on a decent number of attempts per game, I think he's a third option on a decent team.

And then if he gets that driving kick game going, learns to finish strong, I think he could potentially be a second option. It's still iffy to me. that's contingent on a lot of things coming together. But if he can finish strong, everything works out, I think he could be a very, very good player. Like just that three-point shot alone, it opens up so many things for him.

It's just going to be a matter of can he take advantage of it. Yeah, I would say if he can attack close-outs properly, make the right pass or even manage to get to the rim. I mean, that would be greater. If he can just attack open lanes, that would be great. I think he's always going to struggle of just trying to beat guys one-on-one. but fortunately in the NBA, you don't need to be a guy who beats guys one-on-one.

Your offense can get you good opportunities to attack an advantageous situations. Like I said, I think he's more likely to get the two-point offense together as difficult as it is. And if he just becomes that great pure shooter inside the arc and outside the arc as well, then you can do without the driving opportunities. I think you have a guy like Chris Middleton, for example, who rarely makes it to the rim. He's just an expert shot creator. How do you envision him getting that two-point shot off? Like, is it like pull-ups or post-ups?

So I would say if he gets chased off the three-point line, and if he can just take a few dribbles in and take a mid-range pull-up, and then if you can hit those, your percentage, and I think he stands a very good chance of doing that just based on just how skilled he is as a shooter. Wow. That would be, you know, that would be good. Wow, what?

No, that's a tough shot to make efficient. That's high praise. It is, but in these situations, again, if he has to get closed out on hard, The percentage goes up significantly, of course, if you are unguarded. I mean, the pull-up twos are often just a difficult shot. It's a hard shot in general. But if you don't have to create space and you don't have anybody close to you, that becomes an easier shot.

It's still generally a shot that players won't make efficient. But if you have a strong pure shooter, you stand a better chance. So you're not necessarily talking about like Middleton 2s or even Kate Cunningham 2s where you stop, but where you have a defender right on you and you stop on a dime and maybe fade away a bit. That's a much more difficult shot than just taking a few dribbles in and shooting an upright uncontested jumper. It is a hard shot to make efficient, but I think he can do it.

Now, if you can also get those turnaround fadeaways, just over-the-shoulder shots, I mean, cool, you've got a guy who can create efficiently. And again, his shooting is just so good that maybe he can get it done. Maybe he's just that good of a shooter. So in that situation, you have at least a release valve, or just a guy who can create well. Is he a number two option?

I don't know, but he could be, you know, who knows? He could be. But you got to be real good, like really, really, really good to make that happen. And unlike like Devin Booker, he's just, he's going to have a hard time beating guys off the dribble. So he'll have a smaller toolbox. But if he can get it together, then I think you have a good, a good return on the pick, even if you can't attack the basket. Right. He has the height and he has the length. Maybe he's just able to comfortably take that shot over people. Yeah, it's possibility. I mean, that turnaround jumper is just, that's a really rough shot, like a really tough shot. to make, but again, you have a guy who's just that talent as a shooter. Maybe he can get it done.

So, you say a ceiling is the second option. I would say maybe, like, you can win a championship with like a superstar and two-star caliber players. You know, if he's like the number two-bee or number three guy, great. Something I didn't mention, we can talk about this when we get to fit, actually. So I've already said what I think is, yeah, so that, that for me is the, is the floor, kind of maybe like a Joe Harris type with better defense. Maybe not as good shooting. I mean, Joe Harris is a great, great, great shooter who was this season. And if DiVibari can get there, fantastic. I think he stands a chance if he's taking open shots, actually.

And good player. That, that I would say, is his floor. Do you have any thoughts about floor, ceiling? No, all I would say is I think that it's third or fourth option if he, like, really can't get anything going other than his three-point shot. Like, he's still a guy who can finish plays that are created. If the ball comes to him and he's able to get it up quickly, that's still a valuable shot, he's still going to earn his way onto the floor.

and then if it all comes together, if he is able to expand his game, make these shots efficiently from a variety of spots on the floor, I think second option is potentially there. Yeah, it's a possibility. He would just need to be a really great score, or a really great shooter, excuse me. Second option is probably ambitious.

That's like top, top end outcome. But like I think your idea of like a 2B is a really good one. Yeah, I would say that, I mean, I can't think of a guy in the NBA who isn't like an elite motion shooter. I don't know if Chavari will get there because he just isn't the guy, at least to this point, you can go around the screen and catch it and shoot while he's off balance. Maybe he'll get there. But unless you have a guy like that, I can't really think, and that's like, oh, I'm thinking about Clay Thompson,

who also has had the luxury play next to Steph Curry and Jemond Green. I can't think of any player who is just going to be a viable third option and a contender just by shooting threes. Not sure, honestly, but maybe that takes us to comps? Yeah, like I said, I mean, my comp is. for maybe like a Joe Harris type who plays better defense. And my ceiling would be probably a jumbo Chris Middleton, the really high percentage three-point shooter and effective shot creator. Yeah, I mean, you mentioned mine a second ago,

but this one's a little bit of an awkward fit positionally, but I like the Clay Thompson comp. And I know it's weird because Clay is a shooting guard, and Jabari has the physicals of a four, maybe a three. But they're both lower usage. They don't necessarily need the ball in their hands, but they still get a lot of shots. And then, like you said, this is maybe one of the points where we're a little bit different in terms of optimism.

But I think Jabari has the flashes and the ability at some point to make shots off of movement. And that's something that Clay does very, very well. And then they're both good defenders on the perimeter and on drive. So I don't know if you want to say super-sized Clay Thompson. But play style, I think that's a decent one. Yeah, I don't agree with this comp. But also, here's what makes Thompson effective. There are two things.

Number one, he's very quick. He can very, very able at beating guys off the screens. He's also got kind of a pull-up game that he's made more effective over the years, but that's not as bread and butter, which, of course, is just shooting three is at a very high percentage. And he's definitely a very good motion shooter. Now, the other thing that makes it different is that he plays next to Steph Curry, which has made, being on the floor with Curry, excuse me, has made him drastically more efficient, like almost invariably in all but I think like one season of his career since that first championship season.

Because when you have like the greatest shooter of all time, not the greatest parameter shooter of all time. You can make a case for Durand as the greatest shooter of all time, all around shooter. But you can't give Steph like more than a foot of space or he's going to get up a high percentage three. He's a little bit this year, but we're talking generally. So guys have to go over screens.

You basically have to throw double coverage at him because he's going to beat you around the screens with his quickness and just his inhuman endurance. He's an amazing off-ball mover who is just going to get himself open. So you've got double coverage there. You run Clay Thompson around an off ball screen. Draymond gets him the ball for a relatively open three. And Thompson, without Curry on the floor, he becomes a lot less impressive.

And some seasons, he's been at below average efficiency in bed, but would actually be pretty poor efficiency for a guy who takes the vest, who's just really, for the most part, a three-point shooter. So that is the other difference I would lay out is that nobody has Steph Curry, only the Warriors have Steph Curry. And having Draymond is also basically, as a guy who can run an offense and pass at an elite level is also very, very helpful. And having an amazing offensive coach.

So those are the ways in which I don't see the comp. I don't think Jabari is going to be that guy dashing around screens and shooting off the move. He's also nowhere near as fast as Clay. Though the guy, he's guys who are defending him are going to be slower too. But just Clay has a luxury that, in Steph Curry, that, you know, who knows, maybe the pistons will get very lucky somewhere. But the odds are drastically against that. I mean, Curry is one of a kind in NBA history.

Well, sure. And yeah, I mean, it's like I said, I think that Jabari does have the upside to take more difficult shots. Like I mentioned in the beginning, I think eventually he will be able to be a guy who is shooting off of movement. And yeah, it's not a perfect comp. And like I did say, Jabari is going to be a guy who's finishing the plays that other people create for him. I don't see him as a primary option or a self-creator most of the time. I think if he has that ability, that's great. But for the most part, and this kind of maybe transitions us into the fit with the pistons,

I really like him because he's going to be a guy who makes things easier for the dynamic players around him. And he's still a great option when the ball comes to him. Yeah, just what he can offer as far as an elite perimeter shooter. That's very nice. Just a guy who's going to attract gravity just by being on the floor. It was going to be able to make those shots that presumably Kate Cunningham, wherever his else is in the floor, are going to create for him at a high percentage. The only thing that gives me pause a little bit,

and this isn't about Jabari. It's about the roster as a whole. You're probably, almost certainly, if you draft Jabari, you're looking at Jeremy Grant being off the team. And I know I talk a lot about athleticism. I think it's especially in a lineup wide scale. Well, certainly on a lineup wide scale. It's a very important quality.

Say what you will about Jeremy. He is a high-level NBA athletes. He is explosive both on and off the ball. He finishes above the rim. And you lose. that athleticism, and you've already got Cade in the 4, you've already got Bay on the 4, you better find some way to replace it at the other two positions. So again, we've seen in the playoffs, just the importance of having guys who can keep up, even in the regular season, that's important.

Like the Pistons at times, like with Killian and Cade and Bay and Stewart on the 4 just said circles run around them. And you can't have that happen. It's not ideal in the regular season. and you cannot have that happen in the playoffs. Biggest teams will just completely get your defense absolutely out of sorts and eviscerate you. So you've got to find some way to replace that athleticism elsewhere. I think, yeah. Yeah, yeah.

I'm not sure how that lineup all works together, but I think that Jabari is such a weapon on the perimeter. You're not going to love the fact that the pistons aren't going to have like a lob threat at the power forward. But with the three-point shooting and the way it projects out, there are going to be times where it looks like Jabari is playing like a fourth option, like his usage should be fairly low. But the number of shots that he should be getting is that of like a second option.

Because as long as you make them pay, it doesn't really matter to me how you get the shot off. There's a discussion within that about, you know, being a dynamic player and having a big arsenal of weapons and ways to attack the defense. But as long as Jabari keeps doing what he's doing, like he did at Auburn, as long as he's able to make those threes on volume at a high percentage, I don't really think it matters too much. But yes, in the long term, you will have to address the athleticism at other points in the lineup. And, yeah, three out of five spots would be taken up by guys who are maybe seen as lower level athletes. Yeah, I would call Jabari aside from his inability to explode on a

perimeter. I mean, he is, he's a decent, he's a decent NBA athlete. He's also not a great week. I think defensively he is. Yeah. No, I think he's a decent NBA athlete. And yeah, you're not going to get, he's not going to get circles run around him on defense. And you've also got, you know, excellent length there. I mean, Jeremy Grant has got good length as well. But increasingly, when I think about Grant being traded, it hurts a little bit unless you're replacing him with the guy who can do certain things as well, as well as Jeremy can. Like, again, be explosive on and off the ball. We saw after the All-Star break, apparently, Troy Weaver had a chat with Jeremy about being more efficient. Jeremy stopped taking as many bad

shots and kicked out the ball. He was a much better passer. And there's definitely a virtue there of being a guy who can beat his man explosively off the ball and then explode into the interior or just explode into the interior in general. It's just a very good way to wrong foot the defense. So you need to have at least one of the elite athlete in the starting lineup and also a good athlete at center. And you can address those in the long term. But yeah, I mean, this is the downside of Cade is who he is.

He's going to be on the ball. But Bay is not a good athlete. And that's, and having the two of them, means certain things. Yeah, that's all fair. I mean, Jabari, if he has an open lane, or if he ever gets to the point where he is comfortable taking contact on drives,

he actually can finish with power. He just doesn't do it very often. He will stop short. He will take a floater if he's attacking the rim or he'll turn it into a post-up. Right now, his athleticism on drives is not functional. And in that sense, yeah, he is a poor athlete,

but not really. So that's a valid concern. I hadn't really thought about that because, again, I mean, he immediately helps address the team's lack of spacing, especially around Cade. You know, we've seen these pictures of, you know, the Pistons fielding Cade out there, and then all five guys will collapse on Cade. That's not going to happen nearly as often if Jabari Smith is out there with him. Because if Cade can find him, and I think we're both confident that Cade can find the open man, Jabari will make them pay. Like you said, he shot, what, 57% on open threes? That's ridiculous.

So, yeah, in that sense, I really like the fit here. Jabari's defender shouldn't collapse on Cade, and that's one less guy that Cade has to worry about mobbing him when he takes it inside. Yeah, that's true. It's just sure, maybe he learns to attack closeouts, but the speed with which you attack closeouts is also important. If the help doesn't have time to get there, or if the help gets there and is not really fully set up,

increases your chances of finishing successfully, and it's also just going to discombobulate the defense more. And every offensive scheme in the NBA, aside from like having Kevin Durant and just saying here, take the ball and score. But other guys have to score too. Of course, Kyrie can do that. And with Hardin was there, he could do it too. You know, in that situation, your scheme doesn't really matter nearly as much, but basically the goal of any basis, you know, of any, the vast majority of offensive schemes is just to wrong foot the defense and gets you the most number of opportunity, the highest number of good opportunities you can and give the defense nothing but bad options. And guys who can get there more quickly stand a better chance of doing that, not only of

scoring, but of further putting the defense off balance. Right. It's something that we've talked about on here a lot. It's like you have to have as many options as possible. You know, you can't account for everything. But if your players are one dimensional, then they're much easier to defend. The thing with Jabari is that even if you close out on him hard, he usually is able to get that shot up, at least at the collegiate level. And like we've both kind of said, I don't think either of us have concerns about him getting his threes off at high volume and high percentage in the NBA. But I think that's kind of, like I said, I think that's his swing skill. If he is able to, you know, deal with whatever issue it is that's stopping him from becoming a physical force on drives, I think that he becomes a significantly

more valuable player. But as of right now, at the very least, he's going to make things easier for Cade and he's going to be able to finish the plays that Cade is creating. Yeah, but I think that we agree that if you drive Jabbari, just in general, I mean, the Pistons have, you really, really do not want to field a lineup that's on athletic, on a lineup wide scale, even in the regular season. In the playoffs, it can be killer. So especially with the way things are trending, especially with the way things are trending with small quick lineups.

Sure. Javari's lack of athleticism or functional athleticism, however you want to put it, it doesn't sway how I rank him. I still have him number one on my board. But we agree that the fit. Yeah, we agree that they're going to have to address it though. If you have to go out in other places. Yeah. Yeah. Certainly. But yeah, right now the shooting is something that we desperately lack. And I think that he immediately helps address that. And then personality wise, I think we already kind of alluded to it in the positives. He seems like a weaver guy, like just a guy who likes to work hard, very coachable. And I think that he would come in and contribute to me.

immediately, no issues with cultural fit. And he fits that mold of big, lengthy, switchable defenders who play with heart. I think that that's the way that the Pistons are trying to build right now. And that's the way that the NBA is trending. So I think he fits very well. Yeah, I think the fit is good. I mean, just the Pistons have considerations to look at going forward. But, I mean, perhaps they'll address those later on.

It's just in, I'll continue, I guess you could say, belaboring this point. Like, Jabari is, I would say, a kind of net-even athlete. particularly, again, because of the way he plays that lack of elite athleticism or that, you know, being probably like an average NBA athlete is not going to hurt him as much on offense. And it's not going to hurt him on defense based on the assets he has. It'll limit his defensive ceiling. But, you know, I think we agree will still be a good defender. But, you know, you cannot have your other two guys have to be really good athletes, I would say, in this case. And just the point I'm going to believe it is you cannot have three below average half court athletes in the NBA.

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Down with the draft king sportsbook app now. promo code TBPN, bet $5 in any NBA team to win their game and get $150 and free bets if they do. That's promo code TBPN, only at drafting sportsbook. Minimum age and eligibility restrictions apply. See show notes for details. All right, let's move on to listeners submitted questions. So this one will have the same opinion on. With the first pistons pick, would you rather, in the upcoming draft, get a player like Bay, who would produce consistently with less upside or take a risk with someone with more bust potential, but at the same time, who has the ceiling of a number two option? I think at this point in the rebuild, I would do the upside because the pistons really just need talent. Yeah. Good value talent. Exactly. But I'm sure you have more to say on that.

Well, like I said in the last episode, I mean, what you're looking at is not only talent. I know we agree on this. It's not only talent, but value like Paula's talent to player. What's his value going to be next to Cade? I don't think very good. So, yeah, you definitely go for upside. I mean, I would swing on a player like Ivy over Paula. I would swing on. I mean, sharp is definitely a big swing, and we're not going to know if that's a worthwhile swing until the combine. I'm very interested to see how he does at the combine. Did you see the rumor that he put up a 49-inch vertical? Yeah, I mean, everybody knew that he was, I mean, he has great, great physical attributes. There are positive signs in high school. It's just, of course, there are going to be a lot of questions because you have zero data at any level above high school. So, but I would say definitely swinging for a better pick. I mean, the pistons need a number two option. They just need a number two option. You need that scoring punch to succeed in the playoffs.

Like you saw, like the Grizzlies who are very good. I mean, you just need that scoring talent in general, but the Grizzlies who are a great regular season team struggle in the first round because they don't really have that scoring punch. They don't, it's just Morant's beyond that. There's not a guy you can really just rely on to take the ball and be a really high volume, pretty good efficiency option, creating a lot of his own offense.

And the Pistons right now, I mean, we ever put it himself. It's just like our goal is to continue accumulating talent. The Pistons have have Cade. That's great. They got super fortunate to get their number one overall pick last season in the stack draft. Kate is, I think, going to be a superstar in the league. But that's not enough. I mean, it's just, it's nowhere near enough just to have him.

And with all respect to Bay, I mean, I think we'd both be shocked if you're the number two guy and a contender. So, and you can get like the fourth or fifth best player on a contender and free agency. So number two, this is going a bit into the point. playoff realm. What's your opinion on the jazz coach? That's Quinn Snyder, who appears to be on his way out. Is he regressing or is Donovan Mitchell letting him down? Donovan Mitchell, like, I know Tommy, you don't have as much of an opinion on stuff outside of the realm of the pistons right now or have been very busy also in the middle of the playoffs. Yeah, I unfortunately haven't been able to watch a lot of basketball or, yeah, the playoffs. But I'm looking to see that certainly. And I'm very curious to see what

happens with the jazz. There's a lot of drama. I feel like the NBA is a little bit of a of a soap opera for men. I think we really like that stuff. I don't know. A lot of just the antics really make me upset that these guys are not being more professionalists. But as far as the jazz, I'm looking for it. Yeah, I find it's, yeah, I just think that these guys should hold them to, they should hold themselves and be held to a much higher standard. I mean, these are professional athletes who have paid a lot of money to do their jobs. And they're also, like it or not, setting an example. for the younger fans or whatever. I just expect them to behave professionally.

A lot of them don't. Or some number of them don't. I wouldn't say a lot of them. But I'm looking forward to, I think the Jazz are going to make significant changes. And you always like to see significant change in the NBA. Not necessarily if it involves your team, if the guys could think going,

but the Jazz really kind of seem to have hit a ceiling. Now, Snyder, I used to think much more highly of him. I think he's a good regular season coach. In the playoffs, he has not adapted when teams have gone small. and Rudy Gobert. He has not done what he did the best he can to maximize what Gobert can do against smaller defenders on offense. You really want to use him as a role man, get him as many opportunities in the restricted areas you can. Instead, he's stuck with his offense. And I think that just minimizes Gobert, who's an important player. As far as Donovan Mitchell, he was an absolutely utterly and unforgivably horrible defender, like terrible. He's a great postseason scorer. He wiped away a lot of that by being absolutely awful. You had him coming into the league. You think with his frame, and his work ethic and his athleticism, he do well on defense and perimeter defense. But who knows if that was just wrong, his effort was certainly bad. So I would say Donovan let his entire team down.

And this time, Gobert shouldn't get the blame for having to go and help when it was O'Neill or Mitchell or Bogdanovich. She has to go help, and then a three-point shooter gets opened. He has his own flaws. He's not a great perimeter defender, and he'll get hunted a little bit there. but Snyder's done a bad job. And that brings us to our final question, which is along the same lines. And I'm sorry, Tommy,

you might not have too much to offer here, you know, because you haven't been watching the playoffs. And I don't know, how familiar are you with the Jazz? Not very. I haven't watched them in a while. Okay. So this is, this question,

should the Pistons make a play for Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert? I would say no for multiple reasons. One of them is the Pistons just don't have assets to kick out right now. And as far as Mitchell is concerned, two things. Number one, the Jazz will almost certainly be looking to build around him. Guys, he has his flaws, like being quite ball dominance and not being the greatest at setting up teammates. But guys who can create offense at a very high level from the perimeter are rare. And I think they'd be much happier to move on from Goberra. So if you're trying to trade from Mitchell, you really have to send back a high level creator.

They're not going to just take a draft pick and say, okay, well, We'll just risk it all on Ivy here. I don't think they're going to do that. Unless they blow it up. Even in that situation, I don't think the pistons would have the assets to make it work. Also, Donovan has, I think it's a moot point, but Donovan has significant stylistic overlap with Cade Cunningham.

He operates like Cade, very on the ball, and just running constant actions in the high pick and roll. So you've got a great deal of overlap there. And yes, you need a secondary creator. You also want to get good value, and you have two guys who lose a lot when they're off the ball. Also, Mitchell's a bit of a diva. Don't like that.

And you have this questionable defense. So any price the pistons had to pay would probably not give back good value at all. So when it comes to Gobert, nearly 30, very expensive, lack of offensive agency. You get kind of a raw deal from Snyder. It's harder on the postseason these days to be a traditional big who's got so much writing in his defense because teams will go with five out as much as they can. Small ball pulls them away from the rim, which hurts his defense overall. because he's much stronger in the interior than on the perimeter.

So also, again, doesn't match the timeline. And maybe you have a look if he's super cheap, but I just don't think the pistons would, he's just two one-dimensional. It'd probably be like, you know, 32, 33 when the pistons are likely to be contending. And yeah, so I would say no there as well. All right. So any closing thoughts on social media?

Yeah, thank you so much for listening to the show. today. If you enjoyed it, please consider giving us a rating on Spotify or leaving a review on Apple. And then if you want to interact with us, we love hearing from you guys. Consider following us on Twitter at To the BasketPod. That's spelled T.O. The BasketPod. Yeah, again, as opposed to the number two. Unfortunately, somebody has had long ago taken the drive-in-the-basket tag on Twitter. So, all right, folks, as Tommy said, thank you all for listening. We'll catch you in the next episode. Thank you.