Driving to the Basket: A Detroit Pistons Podcast - Who Needs Spacing? The Dangers of Playing it Safe

Episode Date: September 22, 2026

This episode discusses Ausar Thompson's extension and castigates the front office for evidently extreme hardheadedness in its handling of the Jalen Duren situation. 

Welcome back, everybody, to Drive into the Baskets. I'm Mike. And you're listening to this for a specific reason, and it's not to hear me deliver generic greetings. So let's get right to it and talk some pistons. So, of course, the biggest news since I last recorded, I don't know when that was, is the extension for Assar Thompson, five years, $155 million, assuming a standard contract structure, which I believe has been reported. It was started about $27.6 million. in season one, standard NBA contract structure for a re-signed player with full bird rights, which you need to have in order to sign a five-year deal. Generally, almost invariably, has 8% flat year-over-year raises. So generally, though not right now, necessarily, a player's contract will become less and less each year as a percentage of the cap. Now, we all thought that the cap would be increasing by a maximum of 10% year over year, stipulated by the CBA. And that, of course, is a compounding 10% interest. Because the new TV deal and the fact that the league is doing very well, but the local TV markets

have tanked, and that's subtracted some revenue. So we have had a significantly less than 10% raise. We did this last summer. I can't remember this summer before. The projections are still below 10% for next year. Anyway, I digress. So how do I feel about the contract? Well, given that you're listening, you presumably have some interest in that. I'm not unhappy about it, but or and I think that this contract is really a bet on his ability to improve to at least some significant degree on offense. He is a spectacular perimeter defender that is not enough to justify that salary alone. We're talking especially the postseason.

The regular season, whatever. Teams don't really make a ton of trouble for you if you are a perimeter non-shooter. Still a problem, especially late in games against good teams. But it's not a killer, as we saw last year. In the postseason, it is a big problem. Because, as I've said many times, I mean, again, this is not like an earth-shattering revelation. I'm not saying, look at me. I'm so smart.

It's just how it is in the playoffs. Teams are scratching and scraping for every fraction. have an advantage they can find. And that includes game planning. And that game planning includes exploiting that non-shooter the maximum degree that they possibly can. And every point matters in the playoffs. You're planning in some real good teams and everybody's cutthroat. Everybody's working super hard. I went over that in the last episode. So at this point, the issue with the SAR isn't so much that he can't shoot. That's a big problem. It's like he can't shoot and he's also terrible at everything else. It's not cuts, putbacks and wobbs, none of which are reliable sources

of half-court offense, and half-court is typically going to be at least 75% of your scoring. Even in transition, he has the habit of breaking some shots. So he got substantially less than A-Men. I've seen some uncertainty as to why that was. The answer is that A-Man is drastically ahead of him on offense, and is an equal defender. So the two of them actually, I mean, A-Man, tactically has even a higher ceiling as a defender. He is marginally, but measurably more athletic than a SAR in a couple of important categories, flexibility and lateral movement. So not saying he's going to be better.

We'll put it this way. Amen, we've seen as the same defensive ceiling. Last season, his defense wasn't quite as good because thanks to the injury to Fred Van Vleet, he ended up being the primary handler. And basically, he had to do a lot of work on offense, whereas Asar, like, very little work to do on offense. So it doesn't matter how sublime and athlete you are. I mean, you only have so much stamina. So in any case, yeah, Aman's been ahead for a long time. Since, I mean, I never really watched them before their second season in OTE,

but he was well ahead of a SAR at that point. Not as a shooter, but of course that hasn't really made a difference. But, I mean, in terms of his ability to attack the rim, just, you know, better handle, way better touch at the rim. better ability to adjust at the rim and so on and so forth. So it saw right now is bad on offense. I mean, there are no if sands or butts about that.

And again, on the regular season, you can work with it in the playoffs. That's a problem. So it's not just justifying the contract. It's being a viable starter in the postseason. Because, again, it's going to get harder.

The deeper you go into the postseason. Giggedy, whatever, for those of you want to laugh at the way I put that. In any case, yeah, it gets more difficult. I mean, and you're playing against good teams, like I said, are going to, like, minor, minor advantages matter. And having that non-shooter on the perimeter is a big advantage for the defense.

So Asara talks about, not really about shooting. He just mentioned putting more pressure on defenses. I've seen it postulated that, you know, the blood clots really slowed down as offensive development. I really don't think that's the case. I mean, you make your progress in the offseason. And if I remember Greg, he's cleared for 5V5 most of that time. Players typically don't make a ton of, don't make a ton of, don't make a lot of,

a big leap mid-season on offense. So, I mean, he's just, he's started behind A-Men and he's still behind A-Man quite a bit. The question is if he can do something, like, if he could shoot, that'd be wonderful. It would be a literally unprecedented improvement. I am still holding out some hope, but you never know. Some guys, you can work your ass off, like Andre Roberson, for example, and you still suck, both from the three-point line and the free throw line. Sorry, certainly struggles from both right now. Roberson also a great defender. Also a problem in the playoffs,

even when he was playing with KDM. Westbrook, even in the pre, you know, even in that last year when the spacing error was really still getting underway, it was a problem. And that was 10 years ago. Anyway, I won't continue to blabler the point, except insofar as I have to contextualize my next point.

So if you can shoot, great, that'd be a big deal. And then the contracts have bargained. If he can't shoot, then he's got to make some progress on the ball. And quite a bit of progress on the ball in order to go some way toward compensating for that and provide offensive value again, especially in the playoffs. So this brings us to point number two. All right, so you've locked up a SAR. And if a SAR can't shoot, and I think you have to project at this point that he's unlikely

to be a shooter, then knowing, as any front office will, the really very very, significant disadvantages the team is going to be facing, fielding him on offense and big minutes in the postseason. I mean, that's a, again, I went over that in the last episode, how rare, I mean, you just, you have one example in the spacing era outside of the warriors who are the most inherent, who are just the most inherent exception in the spacing era, helps to have the greatest shooter of all time, helps to have had next to him at least one out of the, you know, at least one and at at times for half the championships, two of the greatest, other greatest shooters of all time. So it's just you have the bucks.

The bucks who kind of fluked their way to the finals and beat a team that even more fluked its way to the finals. Grants that their coach really sucked. So who knows, maybe they would have beaten the nets, even if, well, those healthy nets in 2021 would have beaten anybody, but they were never healthy. But as things stood, they would have lost in the second rounds if Hardin had been healthy, almost without a doubt. But again, Boodenholzer just sucked. I remember watching the buck celebrate their championship and thinking, well, good for them.

The only downside here is that now they're going to extend Budenhulser, who's a complete dinosaur. And they did, and he got fired two years later after falling to the heat in one of the worst coached fourth quarters and overtimes I've ever seen in my life. At the same time, incredibly predictable, whatever the case. That guy was the honest, 30 point per game score in addition of being the best defender on the planet at the time. So it's an uphill battle for the Pistons. in order to have a fighting chance of overcoming this and contending with a non-shooting assar on the perimeter, you have to have a spacing five, which brings us to today, which is, I think this is where concern begins to grow with the front office.

After extending a SAR, you raise your salary offer to a big who not only stands very little chance of justifying the $200 million you are now offering him. providing that sort of value, given his concerns on defense and his probably ceiling on offense. That player also slams the door shut on that possibility. So you have locked yourself into a non-shooting assar, and now you are locking yourself into a non-shooting big. And it sounds rote, but hard enough to win with the non-shooter on the perimeter. You compound that by putting a non-shooting big in the interior as well. I mean, I'll go over it again.

It's, you can't shoot. It means you can't finish plays in the perimeter. provide no spacing, and defenses use it against you. So we're talking as Saar, or Saar is talking, as Saar putting more pressure on defenses. It's like, okay, it's an uphill battle for you already because your opponents are going to retreat 10 feet into the paint. And that's going to make it a lot harder for you to get past them.

But hey, now you're guaranteed to have Jayland Durran in the paint as well, the majority of your time there, and that makes it that much more difficult. So this just strikes me as a case of organizational hardheadedness to an extreme degree. It seems very likely, given how the front office has, has handled this situation, raising their offer from 180, it seems like three weeks ago to 190 last week to 200 now. And the number of times we've been told that they have refused to discuss any sign and trades, that they went into this offseason with every intention of almost no matter

what keeping Jaland Duran and Asar Thompson both, which is just if the point is to contend for a championship. This is like just cowardly general managing. It's just like we're not going to risk taking a step back, even if we're going to lock ourselves into a situation in which actually competing for a championship with these two guys both on the roster, let alone just darn if he continues to suck on defense in the playoffs.

I mean, that's a big weakness too, needless to say. Also, just the sheer space underneath the aprons. He's going to occupy if he resigns. We'll get to that in a minute. You are just drastically lessening your chances of being able to win. These guys aren't idiots. I mean, we have oodles of doubt. in the spacing era on what it takes to win a championship.

Busting the meta is not just as simple as, okay, well, we'll do something different, and yeah, maybe it'll work. It doesn't work, again, especially if that non-spacing big in the interior, also sucks at postseason defense, which creates its own set of problems. I'll repeat myself, there's only one guy in like the last 40-plus years, as far back as my knowledge goes, who has sucked on defense and won a championship. that guy is arguably the greatest offensive big in history. He had a defense built around him, and he sucked because he's slow.

Yokic is extremely smart on defense. Basketball IQ is not his problem, which is much more than can be said about Duren or the average big who sucks on defense in the playoffs. Generally, if they're slow, that's compounding, you know, that slowness very often goes with poor defensive IQ, though it's a problem on its own. Again, teams will attack whatever they can in the playoffs.

If you have a big who cannot defend in space, he will be chronically attacked. go and help him. Somebody else is open. Sorry. That's just the way it is. So I hate this. I mean, maybe I get proven wrong. Maybe Duran makes a huge leap. Maybe the pistons find some way to make this happen. But really, you are signing on to fight a severely uphill battle with these two guys, both in the starting lineup. And with these, they make each other worse. They, I mean, in the playoffs, it's basically inherent that they will make each other worse. They, on offense, I mean, on defense, Duran, who's pretty poor on his own, cannot survive

in the postseason with Otisar Thompson, which is a problem in its own right. It's pretty much damned if you do, damned if you don't. You want to put them both out there. You're in trouble on offense. You want to not put Asar out with Duran and have fun getting slaughtered defensively. All right. I mean, I've opined on this enough. It's just this, this is kind of the point where it's, it's just, it's.

just I'm feeling a pissed off about it because it's just stupid general managing. It's basically we just, we want to, you know, work to we stay where we are. Even if by staying where we are, we are actively limiting our ceiling, almost certainly. Limiting our ceiling to sub-champions level. And, you know, we're not even in a countenance. We're not even going to discuss potential sign and trade offers. I mean, it's just, it's management hardheadedness. I mean, it's, it's, It sucks. Just right now, it's not looking great. Trachan continues to be pretty unproven. Not all of his moves have panned out. Some of the stuff he's done is a little bit puzzling. Ron Holland continues to be a little bit puzzling as a draft pick, given that shooting was a concern for him. I hope he works out.

I think, of course, if he can shoot, you know, this guy's a starter for a championship team, but he's in danger. He's in the danger zone right now as a guy who was terrible through his first two seasons. And like, again, there are exceptions to the data, but the data is very, very strong for a reason, because these development outcomes tend to be fairly cut and dry in situations like this, that if you are a terrible shooter throughout your first two seasons, you're probably going to get, almost certainly. The odds are severely against you improving. And he might have outsmarted himself with Buzellis, who had his own questions about shooting,

and I wasn't really a huge fan, but so this is a little bit in retrospect, but yeah, whatever. I'm not going to look back on my 2024 draft analysis and pretend that I wanted Boozellis because I didn't. Also, I was, I had considered at that time, you know, Dalton Connect, a decent, just reasonable for shooting specialists for a team lacking in it. So what the hell do I know? All right. I think I've done okay on the draft, all things considered, but certainly didn't in that case.

So, you know, in the O'Cori, you know, pick was certainly strange. We can go on and on. He doesn't make egregious mistakes, but he's also generally been kind of playing with house money, so to speak. He hasn't really had to do anything very significant until now. So it's less than ideal, we'll put it that way. One thing that came out of the athletic today that was interesting, we know that Sacramento is interested. And the issue with the Sacramento deal is with something called base here compensation. Well, there are two issues.

That's one of them, is that basically, if you trade darn it, max salary for Sabonis, who is the only one in the Kings are really of a mind to surrender, then basically, you almost certainly have to waive or trade. You know, you have to wave Duncan Robinson, basically, to get there if I'm doing the math right. Otherwise, you have to send him over there, which I believe would create severe first apron concerns, because they're hard cap to the first apron if they accept a player in a sign and trade.

I don't want to lose Duncan, and Sabonis would basically just be a holdover. He's one of these guys who just can't defend in the bow season, and you're not going win with a guy like that, unless he's far better on offense, the Samanis is. So, I mean, Sabana's a very good offensive center, very good rebounder. But in terms of the playoffs, nah, he just doesn't have what it takes. So it would be a holdover. And on the plus side, he would be a big expiring deal come next off season. So I don't think you really take much of a step back in a regular season, if any.

I think he and K'd be a pretty nasty pick and roll duo. But I think it's also unlikely unless Sacramento really sweetens the pots. and I don't know really what reason they have to do that. They feel like Duren does just take the qualifying offer, which is a possibility. And then they can just sign him next offseason. And here we come to Duren's attitude. I wonder, I don't think it's the agent, again, the buck stops with him. He makes these decisions.

Like the reports are that he's pretty pissed with the organization and feels pretty disgruntled. He might not report to camp. He hasn't really done any offseason. work with his teammates and so on and so forth. Whenever it was the All-MBA nod, the farce of an All-MBA nod that really inflated his head here. It's like in this situation, like, I don't know, if any of you read Starship Troopers, I know it gets a little bit of a bad rep

for basically promoting military fascism, but I think it has some interesting. It's a decent story. And there's a story about the guy, you know, the main character, and this is nothing like the movie, the movie made fun of the book. It was sitting in class, and it's kind of like a ethics and philosophy class. And, well, the teacher is talking about, you know, the difference between winning something and actually earning it. And he's like, oh, you know, here, take a trophy for your track meet. And the main character's like, you know damn well, I came in fourth.

It's like, obviously you're not going to look at Duren and say, oh, he should know he didn't deserve it, but he didn't deserve it. I mean, he won in a year in which a lot of guys failed the eligibility criteria, in which he got the typical buffs for first seed, oh, physically dominating, big stats. From voters who, by and large, are not going to see him more than three maximum four times a year, like local writers when their teams play him. And you get a lot of lazy, stupid votes. I go back to the fact that he got three first place and three second place votes for a defense, excuse me, for all defensive, which were just grossly, oh, you know, your team

had like the number two offense and you were a starting center. You must be a good defender. And my view on that is, why don't you stick to what you know instead of making assumptions, like gross assumptions on the basis of literally nothing? Because during the regular season was not a value adder, was a bit of a value loser and was kept of being more of a value loser because he was placed in a protected defense. a really low responsibility defensive role and surrounded by the top three perimeter defense in the league, which, of course, can't hold up in the playoffs. You just can't protect a guy like that in the playoffs.

Unless, you know, with the very slightly arguably exception of 2023 Denver, but again, that's Yokic. And also, the heat had no business being in the finals. Also, Jimmy Butler was injured, which ended that series before it began. Whatever, we don't need to get into that. Yokich is Yon. So he's singular. Yeah, there may not ever be another guy like him, and there never has been anybody like him in the past,

unless you're including Wilt. So we'll just say modern era. Wilt, needless to say, played in a very different time. Couldn't tell you, because I wasn't alive back then, whether he was playing against Firemen and Milkman. But certainly the average quality of the competition was drastically lower than it is now. So where was I?

Oh, yeah, Jalen Duren's big head. So, yeah, I mean, he seems to have a very inflated head. I wonder if he's actually asking the pistons for more than the 25% max because they can pay it to him. And, I mean, we heard that there are like weight clauses in the contract, but it's like, it's pretty easy. Just don't violate the weight clause. You know, stay below a certain weight. You're a professional athlete. This is your job.

You're getting paid a tremendous amount of money for it. But the front office seemingly, I mean, we've heard nothing about their willingness to consider sign-in traits. So it's basically we'll just continue increasing our salary offers. you know, our contract, the amount of money we're willing to offer you, even though we're well past the point at which you deserve this. And, you know, that's that. Maybe they'll fold on the weight clauses as well. Maybe they'll continue increasing their, you know, their offer. And it's just management cowardice at this point. Also, the fact that the guy, excuse my French, as being a little bitch, I hate to put it that way, but the guy's ego seems to have grown, you know, his head

seems to have grown about five times too large. Even the fact that he's grown disgruntled and perhaps even a little bit hostile, seems to have had no impact upon their intent to do whatever it takes virtually at this point to reassign him. Not whatever it takes, but not far from it either. Also, we heard no non-guaranteed salary, no team option, nothing. It's, you know, five years fully guaranteed $200 million for a center who cannot shoot, doesn't create much, and plays poor defense. So far from being an elite offensive player has in some ways, like any traditional big and opportunity because from even being out there because he can't shoot. And also is not an elite defender, which is typically an absolute necessity. It's typically just a requirement, like an absolute

invariable checkmark for non-elite offense, a big being paid this amount of money. All right. So one interesting thing we heard is that Milwaukee is interested. And Milwaukee is interested. And we heard that from the athletic today. Then they know that he's asking for the max. Milwaukee isn't a very, not unique, but close to it, an unenviable position. They don't have any control. over their draft picks until I believe 2031 or 2030. I can't remember which. When you're in that situation, same like the Clippers, you have two choices. Number one is to be bad and have no draft pick at the end of the year. And number two is to try to be as good as you can because it really doesn't matter. You know, you have nothing to gain by

being bad. You have quite a bit to lose and just losing your fan base and revenue. So generally, it's no draft pick be bad or be better teams will pick be better so they'll have you know they can make this work and durran isn't a great player and then i mean well put it this way he would be overpaid at the max but they don't really care i mean the only way they have are really building a team right now is through the it's through free agency and whatever picks they have and you know the swaps that they'll be giving up uh to portland and i believe new orleans uh or maybe that was last year with new orleans i can't remember. But those are likely to be, no, because obviously the swap with New Orleans didn't really matter too much. Yeah, I just, I can't remember right now. But, you know, yeah, so it'll be those

probably mid to late round picks from those swaps and free agency. So they don't really care about overpaying people. And, you know, it's conceivable that they would pay something now in order to ensure that he's on the team and I don't have to compete with anybody like the Kings for him in free agency next season or next off season. Assuming it takes the qualifying offer, which there would be financial insanity seems to legitimately be on the table at this point. It was based on everything we've heard, you know, assuming it's not just a bluff. And based on everything we've heard about how he feels toward the pistons, may very well not be a bluff. And this possibility would happen unless the front office continues caving, which again has been progressively happening more and more

at this point. So if Milwaukee is interested, it depends on what they would offer by way of sign and trade. Obviously, it wouldn't be picks. We've heard that they're trying to get off Miles Turner's contract. Miles Turner not great, but in the interim, I believe he's got three more years on his deal. It was a four-year deal. So maybe it's two, I can't remember. He would have, the very least, I mean, he's a spacing big. He's solid enough to be first, you know, to have been starting center for a championship team, say what you will, about Indiana's relatively easy path to championship. And about Daniel's terrible coaching the finals, but he got to game seven of the finals against a very good thunder team.

he is more than serviceable starting center, and he can shoot. So you bring him back, and who knows, maybe I doubt it, maybe you get a guy like Ryan Rollins, I don't know. But, you know, you see what roster players you can get in that situation. You know, if they are offering, and again, I would be shocked if this were the case, but if they are offering Rollins and Turner and you say no so that you can max Jalen Duren, which is, you know, where things are, you know, the direct, whatever, you can pay him $200 million, that's too much, then I think that would just be a mistake. Again, this is complete speculation,

but, you know, engage with other teams here, see what can be done. And I hope that's what's happening. But by all outward indications, given what we've heard from reliable sources, and again, I'd like to encourage people to not patronize terrible sources. Do not give them your business, the likes of Evan Sittery and Brett Siegel and Jake Weinbeck and, you know, even Jake Fish. who, unlike the other three, is occasionally correct based on his own sources, but is wrong 95% of the time. I don't know where he gets that information from. Yeah, whatever.

I mean, that's, I just hate to see fraudulent sources be rewarded. Anyway. Yeah, so based on what we've heard from reliable sources, it sure doesn't sound like they're that they are pursuing sign and trade opportunities, though. Granted, also very little leaks from this run office, though it seems like they've you know, from Piston's front offices in general, though it seems like during this saga, they have been more willing to leak.

So, you know, who knows? But if they're not at least countenancing the possibility of a sign and trade here, then that is stupid, like, objectively stupid. So I know this episode turned into a little bit of a rant, but this is where we stand. And it's the first time I know I voiced in probably last episode of the one before,

concern. of this, you know, a little bit of concern about this front office, there's been upgraded to very significant concern, because when you have a front office that is willing to potentially lock itself out of the possibility of contending, and in order to not take a step back, then, I mean, either they have a manic confidence in a SAR's ability to shoot, or are they just willing to take this bullet, so to speak, and make what amounts to be a very probable sacrifice. And I just come back to it. It's like, okay, your first step is to commit, you know, significant money to a non-shooter who's very likely to remain a non-shooter.

And as a result of which you are basically needing a spacing big in order to have a fighting chance at all of contending. And then offering $200 million to a guy who, again, not only is going to really, really struggle to provide anywhere near that amount of value. you in the playoffs, but it's also going to slam the door shut on your possibility of fielding that spacing big. It is just, you know, hard-headed tunnel vision here. So maybe I turn out to be completely wrong. I hope I turn out to be completely wrong. You know, it goes without saying that's possibility. We'll see. But right now, yeah, for the first time, feeling pretty unhappy with Trajan and Company. So in any case, that'll be it for this episode. Hope you all are doing fantastic.

We'll catch you in the next one.