ExtinctZoo - The Hidden Timer That Kills Every Species

Episode Date: December 29, 2024

The hardest game ever is the one we are forced to play & that's life, and within it their seems to be a number that only 1% make it past, which begs the question...why?

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Since life first emerged on Earth, some 3.7 billion years ago, it is believed that anywhere between 770 million and 5 billion different species have either walked, flown, swam, floated, or slithered across the world. In combined, they had an armada of tools and features to help them beat the game that we call life,

and persist until the bitter end. And still, for all the achievements that species have accomplished, researchers estimate that less than 0.1% remain standing. In other words, over 99.9% of all animals that have ever lived have fallen to time. And the really weird thing about all of this is that there appears to be a magic number that 99% of species can't seem to get past, and that's 15 million years. Now, this isn't a fixed number in that they all make it to an existence spanning 14.9 million years and then suddenly get snapped out of existence, but rather, it's by the time this milestone rolls around

that nearly no species are left to celebrate it. And in a rather pessimistic study that looked at different taxonomic groups, including pretty much every fossilized group of animals known to date, researchers found that not a single one has managed to have an average species lifespan of 15 million years or greater. And in fact, none even came close to that target, with mammals in particular having a very grim predicted lifespan of just one million years. And so if this holds true for Homo sapiens, aka me and you, then we as a whole only have another 700,000 years more to enjoy ourselves.

And despite how short this may sound, the number is actually worse for species that are known primarily through fossils, for example, dinosaurs and pterosaurs, who had an average existence of only about half a million years per species. which suggests that once upon a time the game of life used to be that much harder. We can also see how rare it is for species to make it in the long run by simply looking at life around us, as the contender for the oldest existing single species is the Triops Cancroformis, which is potentially less than 30 million years old.

Impressive, but not exactly reassuring, considering there are millions of different species that currently exist. And now you may be thinking, hey, wait a minute, I've heard of animals that are called literal living fossils, like the horseshoe crab and celicants. But these aren't species, instead being genera or families that have persisted, while individual species within them have come and gone. So, returning to the core question of species survival,

it's important to note that it's not like species are individuals, in that they have a biological lifespan, which thus leads to the question of why or how does almost nothing get past 15 million years, especially when considering that mass extinctions only take place roughly once every 100 million years. Well, the simple answer is, life and surviving is really that freaking hard. It's like a test designed to fail you at every point in turn, no matter when, where, or what you are. The longer answer is, is that there are just so many different ways of species can go extinct, that when combined, prevent the majority from making it past 10 million years, let alone 15 million.

Now, while the ways in which a species can go extinct are limitless, historically, most extinctions can be traced to the same main causes, which together account for up to 99% of all species extinctions. These causes, or levels, as I like to call them, can be pretty darn unfair and hard to eat, especially when considering that the first one is essentially out of your control, and that is co-extinction. Basically, every animal relies on at least one other species,

be it for food, such as ant eaters and the ants it eats, or protection like a drysaurus herd keeping next to a stegasaurus. And while many times these relationships are important, they are not usually the end-all be-all. But they are for some. For example, parasitic organisms that rely on a host to survive or reproduce, or sometimes even in regular predator prey relationships as well, with the famous example being the host eagle, who failed to adapt after the extinction of its main prey, the Moa, which showcases the bizarre possibility of evolving yourself into extinction by becoming hyper-specialized. This way of extinction through co-extinction

always greatly varies in how long it takes, with some succumbing in a few years after their better half perishes, while others take thousands. And for the fair share of history, this was not actually one of the main problems for species. However, since the rise of humans and our tendency for targeting very specific animals, co-extinction has become one of the leading ways

in which species go extinct, with up to 50% of current animals who are facing extinction, being at least a partial victim of this. And that's not even mentioning the fact, that they themselves could have another species that relies on them, which of the case can very well lead to domino effects and ecosystem destabilization, which just all goes to highlight how tricky survival is for animals who are heavily reliant upon another, as your minuscule hopes in making it are then resting on the shoulders of the minuscule hopes of another.

Now, while not all species face the threat of co-extinction, there is another catastrophe that can affect any species, even those thriving in their environment, a crisis that actually comes from within, and that's our genes, the building blocks of heredity that make us, us. While our genes are a part of ourselves, they, like the world, can essentially turn against you at any point, almost like a game mode where for every step you take, there's a slight chance you suddenly explode, kind of.

To be honest, it's not really that straightforward, as genes can harm a species through more ways than one. But a big point to keep in mind is that to prevent genes from wiping out your species, You basically want numbers on your side. This is because in small populations, you subsequently have a limited gene pool, which not only increases the risk for genetic diseases, but also reduces the species' ability to adapt. And then on top of this, you now face something called gene erosion,

which is basically when a population permanently loses specific genes, which very well could have been helping the species survive. And it's when taking this all into account that things start to look pretty grim, almost as if the world is designed to prevent species from success. Because even if a species survives a major catastrophe, like an extinction event, the sudden drop in genetic diversity can make it that they're screwed regardless. This same phenomena can also be seen if a group sets out to establish a new population. As many times, even if a breeding population does successfully establish themselves, the lack of the necessary genetic diversity prevents them from succeeding in the long run. And ironically, the opposite situation can be just as dangerous.

As one of species is actually doing too well in that they have everything that they need, they have no reason to migrate or move. And this can lead to a smaller range and a more stable but again limited population, creating a higher risk of something going horribly wrong if a fatal mutation is introduced to their genome. And the real trouble with this is that while we do not know exactly how often lethal mutations occur, it can be expected that over 15 million years of existence, that some pretty dangerous mutations could potentially be introduced into the population. And if the population is then not big enough to breed it out, per se, well, game over.

And these small population problems often get even worse when inbreeding becomes inevitable, as when animals have to keep breeding with close relatives, it creates a horrible feedback loop that only gets worse over time. And some surprisingly famous animals have actually met their fates through these combined genetic problems, including a staple of the Ice Age, the woolly mammoth. About 10,000 years ago, mammoths weren't doing so hot. but they were at least breathing, and during their downfall on the mainland, a small group managed to escape and make their way to Rangel Island.

This piece of land must have been a paradise for them at the start, is that harbored the last remnants of their preferred biome, and their population might have actually reached 1,000 individuals here, but it would end up turning into a nightmare. Now, Rangel Island is pretty sizable, being a bit smaller than Puerto Rico, but from a mammoth perspective, not so big. And so between the island's size and the original herd size, they faced an unfixable problem, and that was low genetic diversity.

Over time, this genetic diversity got lower and lower, eventually culminating into complete genetic meltdown, something which is just as unfun as it sounds. And within 6,000 years and 200 generations, the mammoths became absolutely riddled with negative mutations, leading to the last ones suffering from translucent thin hair that failed to block out the cold, diabetes, infertility, and even the loss of smell,

rendering them potentially unable to locate their own food. Their genes were so tarnished that researchers described them as essentially being broken. In around 2000 BC, the final survivors of Rangel Island died, and with them, so did the woolly mammoth as a species. Now obviously, such a long and drawn-out extinction is no way to go. But don't you worry, because in nature there are many other unfriendlies

who are more than willing to put you out of your misery. with the three main ways being competition, predation, and disease. We humans are a pretty good example of both the predation and the competition part, but we aren't the only troublemakers, as things like the fungus betrachokitrium exist, and that, for example, is known to have eradicated up to 90 species worldwide through disease. And while these three strategies are quite different, they do all share a very popular delivery method, so to speak.

And that is invasion, well, invasive species, to be specific. Recently, this has been happening a lot, which is definitely our bad, but it has also been an issue throughout time, with a fairly recent case being the Great American Interchange, which saw dozens of animals migrate across South and North America during the Pleistocene. Many of them became successful invasive species, ultimately leading to the extinction of multiple megafauna, while other megafauna, like the native South American ungulates, actually survived the ordeal, yet came out of it heavily impacted, which does not bode well if you remember what I see, set about genes and second chances. And on top of invasions, you also have to worry about fellow

natives, too, as the smallest changes could give them a vital edge, tipping the balance in their favor. For example, a flood in a valley could wipe out 70% of Siberian tigers, resulting in bears driving them out of their preferred habitat. Or a good summer for wolves could prove catastrophic for dears, and so on, so forth. Even during the Mesozoic, we can clearly see how competition can keep a species from achieving a healthy distribution. As theropods in the morris information, for example, seem to be limited depending on where the other predators were. With the serratosaurus's range, for instance,

heavily depending on where the larger allosaurus was. There is then also the fact that new species are always evolving as well. And for each new one that emerges, the chances of the balance between animals being thrown for a loop increases. And this is where things again appear to be rigged against the 15 million year mark. Because let's just say, you're not reaching that mark without saying hello to at least a few new faces. And speaking of new species, any species that are gunning for the finish line

will likely still fall short of 15 million years, because even if they can get past every threat and survive, by the time the clock strikes 15, they will most certainly have evolved into an entirely new species. And while perhaps this isn't going extinct in a normal sense, it is still a huge roadblock in the continued existence of a single species. Now that being said, speciesation isn't something that is set in stone either, but it does often occur when a species

is faced with major changes, be that in population levels, geography, environment, etc. And it just so happens that environments usually change many times within 15 million years. This too can obviously vary with some areas undergoing immense switches in a single human's lifetime, like Cherinople, and the subsequent black frogs, or it can take place over millions of years. Though collectively, you almost never seen an environment. remained stable for over 100,000 years. And even things like forests or lakes as a whole rarely make it past a million, with most disappearing or at least radically changing within thousands of years. And sometimes these changes in environment will lead to evolution. But many times,

the only outcome you get is extinction. For example, due to the environment forcing animals to relocate where they might end up not being well adapted for, or they stick around and perish, unable to survive in the new conditions. And the scary part about environmental changes, is that there is virtually an endless list of things that can cause an environment to become altered or disappear. But one trend that seems to unite most cases is Earth, or Mother Nature itself, who may just be the final boss in this challenge. And while I can definitely say that Earth is more chill than most other planets are, it still has its moments. And even now, there are parts of the world where Mother Nature isn't making things easy. With little notice, massive volcanoes can erupt,

deadly fires can break out, a super drought can begin, or the weather can just get a bit too chilly, triggering a massive die-off, and so on and so forth. For the most part, what transpires isn't severe enough to cause a major extinction, but it can cause severe local effects, and it's these smaller events that really take a huge toll over time, with one study finding that around 7,000 such events happen worldwide every single year. So in 15 million years, we are talking about over 100 billion different events. Now granted, a species isn't everywhere at once, so they won't experience all of these different mishaps. But to be honest, with these numbers, it doesn't matter how small of a range you have.

You're definitely not getting out unscathed. What's more is that uncounted in this Goliath of a number is the natural cycles and shifts in nature that can do the job just as well as these smaller ones. They just usually have a longer time horizon. For example, weather systems, ocean circulation, and even the Earth's physical movements can change and all have a very strong impact on nature, and therefore, of course, animals. The last Ice Age is often thought to have ended because of a shift in Earth's orbit, and we know that it imbode well for many. Meanwhile in the Sahara, monsoons shifted a few thousand years ago,

turning it from a lush green landscape to a sandy and brutally dry one, leading to various die-offs and migrations. Now, as I mentioned, the bulk of these changes in events are smaller and happen often throughout time, usually only having drastic consequences for a local area. However, once in a blue moon, an extremely out-of-the-ordinary event can transpire. That has such intensity and range that results in an extinction event. Generally, researchers think that there are two kinds of extinction events, minor and major. And similar to the smaller events, nearly anything in nature can lead to them. And a few times, it's actually the perfect combination of multiple things that does the trick.

And if history has taught us anything, you don't only have to worry about Mother Nature in these events, because as you might know, space is quite unfriendly to nearly everything. Even occasionally going out of its way, descend things like massive rocks hurtling towards us at 50 times the speed of sound. Now taking everything in a consideration, we are pretty well protected from the unpleasant trees of space. However, just like how Mother Nature can deal the odd painful punch or two, so can things from the Great Beyond. I mean, just ask the dinosaurs. And between space and Mother Nature, Earth ends up usually experiencing an extinction event every 30 million years. Cumulatively, such moments are not an extreme cause for extinction due to their rarity.

Although they are very good at bringing a lot of devastation fast, and really, really bad ones, namely the Big Five, as scientists call them, can eradicate well over 70% of all species in one go. So by now, it should be pretty straightforward why 99.9% of all species don't get to celebrate their 15th million year birthday. And when you look at some of the most iconic animals on the planet, you'll notice that despite them being touted as the perfect hunters or survivors, many aren't even near 15 million years old. Tigers, gray wolves, lions, blue whales, and African elephants all fall within 2 million years. And even the most legendary animals of prehistory, like the T-Rex, spinosaurus, stegosaurus, and Argentinosaurus did not make it. And then you have some, like the

polar and grizzly bear, who are sitting at less than 100,000. Worse than even modern humans, with our own measly score of just 300,000, give or take. However, while modern humans have a long way to go until the big leaks, we have done a pretty good job at what researchers say is the biggest defense against going extinct, and that is achieving a widespread distribution. Based on multiple studies, being well spread out highly protects the species against every form of extinction minus mass extinctions, though thankfully those mass extinctions only happen about 10 times every billion years.

roughly. Humans have also done, of course, very well thanks to technology, letting them adapt to different environments and build large, sustainable populations, both of which, of course, help in the long run as well. Yet, at the same time, we've also created some things along the way that have made the challenge of 15 million years harder than ever. And thanks to our inventions, there are now new ways to go extinct that didn't really exist in the past, both for us and other animals. For example, nuclear weapons could wipe out civilization in its.

a day, while a large conventional conflict might yield similar results. And more insidiously, we also have to deal with things like pollution, climate change, habitat loss, and exposure to chemicals that literally damage our genome stability. Even something as harmless domestication is leading to the decline of certain species through a process known as genetic pollution, which occurs when a domesticated animal breeds with a wild one, slowly diluting their genes over time, until a point that they can no longer be considered the old wild species. And the cracks from our actions are already showing, not just in animals, but in ourselves as well. As it was this very year, that global life expectancy declined for the first time in three decades,

and a good portion of that decline was attributed to man-made dilemmas. So are we making it to 15 million years? Statistically, probably not, especially with just how chaotic the world and universe is. And for that reason, I want to take a moment to honor those that have actually beaten the odds. Thanks for watching. And until next time. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money.

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