Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/08: Latest MLB Transactions, Soto vs. Acuña, and Benintendi's Upside

Episode Date: January 8, 2019

We catch up on all of the latest news and go through Scott White's outfield rankings. We're still waiting on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado to sign (2:46), but we have reactions to the Yasiel Puig trade (4:00), Yusei Kikuchi (13:40) and Nelson Cruz signings (16:00), and more. We also discuss the outfield rankings (33:24) including Juan Soto and Ronald Acuña's future and present value, Andrew Benintendi's upside (43:23), and more.  To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, real quick, Scott's bummed about the humidor. And pick your milk for breakfast cereal. Mount Rushmore. They'll be there for... Back, everybody. It's 2019. Hope you had a good end of 2018. I know you haven't heard from us in a while,

but we're back on the Fantasy Baseball today podcast. I'm Chris Towers here with Scott White. Scott, how's it going? It's going great, Chris. We don't have a screaming, child in the background anymore. My one-year-old has resumed napping like a

one-year-old should. Nothing better. I'm in a good mood. Nothing better than a baby sleeping. Yes. Sleeping like a baby. I was at a child's birthday party this weekend for a child who frankly does not

like me. He's two years old and he cries every time he sees me. The beard. I think so. Like you have a furry animal on your face? he gets really, really upset every time he sees me, but I was at his birthday party. I'm fine. I'm an adult. I can

I can, you know, I can deal with it. Have you ever worn a hat around a bird? That is, that is an experience there. They do not take well to that. They think you're being consumed by an anaconda. Just let like birds you know and who have like an affinity for you or just random birds. Just, Kate, well, I mean, I'm sure a wild bird would fly away, but a caged bird if they see you in a hat, particularly if they're used to seeing

you without a hat. It doesn't go well. I've never had a bird for a pet, so I'll have to take your word for it. We should talk about baseball, Scott. It's been, what, two weeks, three weeks since the people have heard from us. It's been a while. Yeah, we've been getting tweets. We've been disappointed A lot has happened. Let's start off the show. We're going to take a look at the outfield rankings for Scott, his early outfield rankings. Full top 300s and auction values should be available to you on CBS Sports.com by the end of next week. So that's exciting. And we're going to go through Scott's top 24 outfielders. I've got some questions about the position. But we're going to start by recapping all the news that we've missed over the last couple of weeks. beginning with

Scott, can I get a drum roll? Bryce Harper and Mani Machado have not signed yet. Oh. We're doing this again. Well, I think the more disappointing part is that Harper looks like he's going, like the Nationals seem to be in the lead now.

So that's always boring when the Big Three Agent just goes back where he came from. Good for the Nationals. yeah manny machado he's still doing meetings it sounds like the white socks and fillies are kind of in on both of them doesn't sound like the yankees are in on either of them

they're lurking dodgers they can still surprise dodgers are in but there hasn't actually been a lot of smoke there surprisingly but hopefully they'll sign the next couple of days because we need to figure this stuff out This might drag into February. Don't they know we have previews to write? They don't care. They may know, but they don't care.

All right. Well, whenever that happens, we will have analysis for you. Let's talk about some moves that have actually happened, one, including the Dodgers that we didn't get to. The Dodgers traded three guys from their playoff roster. Yossiel Pueig, Matt Ken. and Alex Wood plus Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey, who I believe was already released, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs.

Yeah, it's mostly just a dump, right? Yeah, I mean, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs are kind of toolsy 19-year-olds who may become something in 2022, but they're not really. This was about getting salary off. That's a big dump. And they were immediately connected to Bryce Harper right after this happened, understandably. But, yeah, not a lot of smoke there. I think this is mostly good news in fantasy because it frees up a lot of clutter.

Yeah. The Dodgers are the most platoony organization in baseball, and now they have less opportunities to do that. I'm most hopeful for Max Muncie because he never should have been sitting against. left-handers, his numbers were great against them last year. So, you know, the Dodgers just had too many options there and ended up sitting him a lot in the second half. That was annoying. Jack Peterson, though, I imagine they'll still find a way to platoon him,

so his value doesn't go up any. I'm also, I also think this is pretty good news for Alex Wood and even Yasio Pueig. It's a hitters park, obviously, but Wood is a ground ball pitcher. I think just the fact he's going to be with the team now that doesn't have a lot of proven starters makes him a fixture there in a way he never was for the Dodgers or Frank leaving the Braves. Before we move on to the Reds guys, there is one name that you did not mention on the Dodgers who I think we probably need to talk about as a potential winner in this trade. And that is top 100 prospect Alex Verdugo, who really never has had.

had the opportunity to play in the Dodgers lineup on a consistent basis. He's appeared in 52 games, hasn't hit well in the majors, but this is a guy who has consistently run up 300 or better batting averages, including a 321 average in 208 games at AAA. Now they do play in the PCL, so that's inflated, but this is a legitimate, like, what would you say a seven hit tool player yeah i mean he makes a lot of contact he has had more walks and strikeouts a couple times in the miners and that's like he hasn't hit for a lot of power a lot of home run power and that's you know kind of critical to to have significant fantasy value i mean you can

be you know you can be nick markakasy without it i guess but um but i'm i'm in today's environment I'm always willing to bet on the guy with a really good hit tool to hopefully discover power once he gets to the majors, just because it's such a power-laden environment that tends to happen a lot. So I'd rather bet on that guy than the guy who already has the proven power but strikes out so much that he struggles against major league pitching. Yeah, it's kind of like would you rather have an Alex Verdugo prospect or a Joey Gallo for Dougal for Dougo, my friend. be safer. Yeah. But part of the reason

I didn't bring him up is because I'm, he's a left-handed hitter. And he's he kind of has a, he's kind of known for playing lackadaisical defense. So I'm still not confident this is going to

open up a ton of playing time for him. Maybe it will. But I'm not moving him way up my draft boards even recognizing there's some offensive potential. All right, well, let's move on to the Reds guys you want to talk so much about. Well, like I was saying, Alex Wood, I think, has a firmer rotation spot now than he's ever had before. Whether he's durable enough to make good on it is a fair question to ask.

But he's a groundball pitcher, so I don't think the environment's going to hurt him much. I think he's, you know, somebody worth drafting among the top 40, 50 starting pitchers probably. Oh, definitely, I think. And Pweig. Yeah. I mean, he's really turned things around the past couple years, but kind of similar to Wood hasn't been in a position to make the most of that. Because, you know, for much of last year, he was batting eighth.

Yeah. He's going to be in the middle of that lineup now. He had a 824 OPS last season, 23 homers, 15 steals and only 125 games. But he only had 60 runs. and 63 RBI, like you mentioned, mostly a result of where he was batting. Same with 2017, 28 homers, and, you know, an 830 OPS,

but only 72 runs and 74 RBI. He's probably going to hit in the heart of this lineup. It's going to SINSI. I mean, I think a 30-20 season is possible. Yeah, I'm more excited to draft him than I've probably been since his sophomore season. So that's good. now there is one

bit of potentially very bad news here regarding Jesse Winker and maybe the Reds recognize that Matt Kemp really doesn't deserve to play over Jesse Winker but Matt Kemp is a name the Reds the Reds don't normally get name brand players like that and he was an all-star last year

I don't know it's worth saying it's not just Jesse Winker. It also complicates Nick Senzel's path to the majors and to a regular playing role

because he was a top 10 prospect in baseball last season. I think he broke his wrist or had a ligament issue in his hand, something like that.

But he's a guy that the Reds have made a big point of trying to get him as much, you know, kind of the Scott Kingery

approach that the Phillies took last season where, you know, they've played him at second base, third base, I think shortstop in the minors, as well as it sounds like they're going to have him playing center field in spring training. So they want, it seems like they want him to be a versatile guy that they can find playing time for, but I don't know where it comes from. Yeah, that's, it may delay his arrival. Yeah, and he's coming off surgery. So maybe they don't, I mean, I assume they'd probably probably want to wait until mid-April to bring him up anyway just for, you know, to get the extra year of team control there.

But if he's if he's versatile enough to play center, yeah, I still imagine he'll spend most of the year in the majors. It just, it just complicates the bad situation, as he said. I mean, I think Winker and Senzel both will be better than Kemp and Shebler. Yeah. But Kemp and Shevler deserve to play enough that it's, I don't know, it's going to be, it's going to be complicated. And there's not obvious. And Winker I'm most, like, Winker I'm most sad about because that's one, that's one of my favorite sleepers or breakouts or whatever you want to call him heading into this season. What he was doing before having that torn labrum and his shoulder repaired.

that last month, it was Joey Votto-like. He's basically been Baby Votto. He's played 136 games in the majors, only 14 home runs, so not a ton of power. But $2.99 average, only 70 strikeouts in 471 games. 397 on base percentage, 460 slugging overall. And like you said, last season, he got off to a pretty slow start. I don't think he hit a home run until the 45th game of the season. So that wasn't great.

But from that point on, he played 45 games, hit seven homers, had a 1,05 OPS. Yeah. And it's not just the walk-to-strikeout thing. The comparison with Votto doesn't end there. You look at the whole batted ball profile. Yeah. Line drive rate, very reminiscent, a guy who should be like a 400 OBP guy consistently. And the knock on him has always been power, but it's been better in the majors than it was his last

couple years in the minors. And when he had this shoulder surgery, he said this is something that's afflicted him for the past couple years. Well, you look back at his minor league history, he started out as a pretty good powerheader, so I can't help but wonder if there's a connection there. I think he also had a wrist injury a couple years ago. He did. He was banged up the last couple years in the minors.

So I think the ceiling is very high. And look, if he, you know, coming off of him. shoulder surgery, maybe they want to ease him in any way. If he performs the way I think he can, then this will take care of itself. All right, let's move on to some of the other moves that have happened, starting with the Mariners signing Yusay Kikuchi, career 281 ERA in the Nippon Baseball League out in Japan, 21.6% strikeout rate. Weirdly not great control. You know, when we when we talk about guys, coming over from Japan. I think that's one of the things we expect is good command profile,

but he's actually walked 8.9% of batters in his career. It's been a little better over the last couple of seasons. He was really good in 2017, saw a big jump and strikeout rate, but then he returned back to his previous levels last season. I'm not terribly excited about him as a fantasy option. I don't know about you. I'm not either. I'm not either.

It's, I don't worry so much about the control because I think that's, that's something he's, he's mostly gotten a handle on the past couple years, but I just don't think he's, um, overpowering enough to really measure up. Like, maybe he could be, um, a Hiroki Karota type. Uh, but I don't even think he's good as like Akinta Maeda, who would be great if he got more and consistent innings. And maybe Kikuchi will get those innings made a dozen. But I don't think skill-wise, he's on the same level. And he has a pretty concerning injury history.

He's suffered from nagging shoulder soreness, including a bout that kept him out for about a month last season. Affected his velocity early on. Throws about 92 miles an hour on average. But another thing to keep in mind, there might be some hype about him coming in as a sleeper. The Mariners have already said they will limit his workload this season. So, you know, we could be looking at a, I hate to make the comparison to another Japanese pitcher,

but like a Kenna Maeda situation where he's good. I think Kenta Maeda might profile as a better pitcher. But he might not have the innings to really make a difference. It might be a guy who's more valuable in a Roto league where he can help you out with the, with the rate stats. Moving on, Nelson Cruz signed with the twins. We saw just a little dip in Nelson Cruz's production last season, but he remains kind of a David Ortiz-esque, ageless wonder.

What do you think about him in Minnesota? Yeah, I have no reason to suspect to drop off other than he's a year older. He's 38. Yeah, exactly. It could happen any year, but I don't think this. move really changes the likelihood of that. The twins have really been hitting the bargain bin this offseason, and they're going to be an interesting team next year.

They got Jonathan's scope when his value was at an all-time low. Nobody wanted C.J. Crone, even though he hit 30 homers last year, he's there. Michael Paneda should be ready to go after they actually made that bargain. signing last year. He pitched in the majors last year, right? He made like one or two appearances at the end? He may have. He did not.

Nope. Didn't it. Nope. I know that was the plan. They were talking about calling him up after September call-ups. He pitched only 12 innings in the minors last season, so probably not going to be at full strength, but we've seen when he's on, he's very good, Michael Paneda. And then the latest signing for the twins.

Maybe they're closer, Blake Parker. They got him for 15 million less than the rival White Sox got Kelvin Herrera for. And I'm not sure. I'm not sure they didn't get the better pitcher in Blake Parker. Plus, they have the most interesting man in baseball. Who's that? Williams Astidio. Oh, yes.

Projected to begin in the minors. So. Spoiler alert. He's in the top 100. Let my big beefy baseball boy shine. All right. A couple other news and notes before we move on to some of the closer signing, some of the recent trades.

Danny Salazar will not be ready for the start of the season. I just, at this point, may be worth a reserve round pick, but he might just be a reliever. Yeah. I will be surprised if he becomes like an all-star caliber pitcher at this point. Like, yeah, I'm betting against him. Here's a really interesting one.

I'm fascinated by what happens with this. The Tigers are likely to trade Nicholas Castellanos. We've talked about how, we've talked a lot about how Comerica Park is a weird place to hit. I don't know if it's a bad place to hit, but we see these. really impressive batted ball numbers from Detroit Tigers players that don't necessarily lead to the big numbers that you might expect. Nicholas Castellano is kind of the poster boy. He's been good the last couple of years, but, you know, the batted ball profile, you know, he looks like a baby JD Martinez. And we haven't seen that from him yet, but if he goes to a

park that might be more conducive to hitting, I could see a really big breakout for him. I think he had kind of that year last year. He had a 361 BABIP, which you would normally say is lucky, but his bad at ball profile, it's pretty believable. He had a 25% line drive rate or something, 29%. Yeah, yeah, you use J.D. Martinez comparison. To me, it's, it's reminiscent of Freddie Freeman. Sure. but he's you know he he he strikes out so much that he kind of needs that high

bat but to be a good but an above average batting average head which he was last year it's more the the power I think there could be more latent power like he's never had a home run to fly ball ratio above 15% and this is a guy who pretty consistently logs 45% hard hit rates. So for some reason, Comerica is driving that down if he goes to a better park, I think we could see a 35 homer season for.

That's interesting. That is interesting. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see what the tigers get for him because he's such a bad defender. Yeah. In right field or especially third base. Nobody gets anything in trades now.

unless the Mets are involved The Mets will get to those deals now The Mets have been just throwing around prospects In weird ways So let's do a little segment called Do these deals matter? Scott, doesn't matter that Annabel Sanchez signed with the nationals No

You don't buy what he did last season I have him around 80th In my starting pitcher rankings So in certain mixed leagues I guess I advise drafting him. It's kind of a, it's kind of a, darned if you do, darned if you don't situation, I guess, because all of last year,

we couldn't figure out what was making him successful, but it lasted all year. So we couldn't really find what was making him unsuccessful either, you know? I just don't trust him. I think he swapped out his slider for a cutter last season. you know, similar in a way to what Nathan Evaldi did. He didn't see quite the dramatic improvement that Evaldi did, but, you know, struck out

24.4% of batters, that's his highest rate ever. Only 7.6% walk rate. That's interesting, because he had a year where he led the league in K-Per-9 I mean, right? Am I remembering that right? I don't know. I mean, he's 34.

Huge injury history. He's got to be 35 by opening day. His pure stuff has been on the decline for a few years. Maybe the cutter is helping him have kind of a last gas pier, but I think it could end as soon as it, you know, just as quickly as it began. All right. He had 10K per nine once the year.

He finished fourth in A.L. Cy Young voting, but that didn't lead the league. He led the league in FIPP that year. Does this deal matter? David Robertson signs with the Phillies for two years. Yeah. I think he'll leave the team in saves. They have already said they are not going to have a traditional night-ditting person.

They also said that last year. And they didn't. They did it. They did for stretches. It was like they were quick with the hook. But, you know, they went into the season with a pretty established closer and blew up. And then Sir Anthony Dominguez was mostly the closer. Yeah.

And I think all of, because I doubt they're kind of the at the forefront of the closer by committee, like true closer by committee movement. The Astros were kind of trending that way before they got Roberto O'Suna. Their rays are definitely trending that way. And I suspect there will be more. But I think for all of those scenarios, there will be a lead guy. I mean, they want to save their best pitcher for the highest leverage situation. And he's their best pitcher.

Oftentimes, the highest leverage situation is the ninth inning. A lot of times it isn't. But I would say more often than not, if they get to the ninth inning and they haven't had such situation yet, they're going to bring in their best guy. Where would you rank him among relief pitchers? because he's a Philly, he's going to be... He's still going to help you with ratios. Yeah, I mean, he's probably going to be outside of my top 24 relievers.

If I thought he was a traditional closer, he'd be in my top 15 relievers, you know? All right. Zach Britain... Oh, sorry. No, he's consistently dominant. Zach Britain re-signed with the Yankees. That doesn't matter, right? No.

The Mets. acquired Keon Broxton, who they traded Bobby Wall for, who had a 220 ERA and a 0.87 FIP. As a reliever at AAA, he's likely to slot in that really good brewer's bullpen. And Adam Hill, fourth rounder in 2018. I'm not sure Keon Broxton would have been on the Brewers on opening day, but maybe there was a market for him. Does this matter for fantasy? I think Keon Broxton could end up playing a big role in the Mets outfield. We don't know when Yohana Cis is coming back.

Yeah, had surgery on both his heels. And, yeah, so we don't really have a timetable for him. They don't have a true center fielder except for Juan Ligaris. And, you know, Broxton could steal a lot of bases. He was 20-202 years ago. Yeah, I mean, he strikes out too much. I don't think he's going to be a great head. hitter, but in Roto leagues, if it looks like he's going to play a lot, he'll be worth

a late-round flyer for sure. All right, and the Mets also acquired J.D. Davis and Cody Bohenik for Ross Adolph, Luis Santana, and Scott Menea. Decent prospects, not huge prospects. Davis has never been a top 100 prospect, but he has hit the ball extremely well in the miners. 989 OPS and 101 games at AAA, career 884 OPS, doesn't strike out a ton, especially the last couple of seasons.

Does this matter? Yeah, I think it does. You know, 25-year-olds who never get an honest look in the majors, you know, normally there's a reason for it. The Astros have so many excess parts, though, that it is. It's possible he just got passed over, and I think that's what the Mets are betting on. I suspect Todd Frazier is going to be their opening day, third baseman, but he doesn't seem to have much left. And I think if J.D. Martinez, whether it's at AAA to open the season or coming off the bench, if he shows anything, I suspect that's a swap that could happen.

And it could end up being, he could end up being a surprise contributor in 2019. certainly the kind of player that will get a lot of sleeper attention in NL only leagues. Are we still expecting Peter Alonzo to be the Mets starting first basement after two weeks or so? I expect that, yeah. He probably could have stepped into that role at the end of last season. Yes. But financially it didn't make a lot of sense. A ton of power potential there.

His average exit velocity is, compares to some of the elite players in the majors. So, yeah, a lot of power potential there. That's Peter Alonzo. A loser in this trade, probably Jeff McNeil, who now just doesn't really have a place to play, which is really disappointing because he was awesome at the end of last season.

I think a lot of people in the fantasy community were looking forward to him getting a legitimate shot. I just don't see where he plays. Well, I mean, to this point, he has shown a lot more than J.D. Davis, right? In the majors. Yeah. Much worse than the minors. I mean, he was great in the minors last year, too.

That's why he got the shot he did. So I don't know that he's behind Davis in the pecking order. He can play third base. But it's clear he doesn't. doesn't have an easy path. You know, it's not like you can just draft them and bank on 500 at bat. All right, before we move on, I want to tell you about Seekkeek. If you were looking to buy tickets online, you know what to do.

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promo code is fantasy. Seekek. Life's an event. have the tickets. Now let's run through a couple more news and notes that probably don't matter very much, but potentially could. The Angels signed Jonathan Lucroy. Is he still a top 12 catcher for you? No. He's not because I don't think there's a lot upside there. He may end up getting into the top 10 just because he plays a lot. Yeah, he might hit like two. At season's end, he may wind up there. But I'd rather, I'd rather shoot for some upside on.

He's probably a catcher who doesn't hurt you, and frankly, that's pretty rare at the position. But, yeah. The athletics signed Mike Fires coming off a very good season for Mike Fires, and that's a great place to pitch. Does Mike Fires become fantasy relevant here? He's relevant, sure. I don't know that he's much more relevant than like Annabal Sanchez. Sure. Because previous good versions of Fires actually struck out hitters last year, not so much.

Yeah, he cut the walk rate in half, but this is a guy that just... doesn't have great stuff. The margin for error is so slim. But that's a good place to have a slim margin for error. Sure. The Diamondbacks could trade Robbie Ray. That would potentially be big. I'm not sure.

You know, you usually need three years of data to have a good sense of what a part change does. but anecdotally, at least, Chase Field was a very good place to pitch last season. Robbie Wright didn't have a great season. Did end up with an ERA under four, still a ton of strikeouts, dealt with injuries. But that could be a boon to his value, right? Yeah, I think he's somebody who could benefit from a change of scenery

because you know the skills, I mean, very impressive. If he winds up with an organization, that can... Astros. Exactly. And they're one of the teams that are linked to him. The Astros have also

been linked to Marcus Stroman, which that could be really fun. Right. Another pitcher who you feel like isn't quite as good as he should be. So, I mean, I would follow the Astros to the ends of the earth.

Any pitcher they want, I want. Any pitcher that they acquire, just you move him up, like double his, draft or Yeah, I mean, I talked a big game with Garrett Cole last year.

I had him in my breakouts column, but I wasn't actually willing to follow through on it when push came to shove. That, that changes now. Tritoletsky has a full

no trade clause from the Yankees for some reason. And this one's really interesting. The Rockies have interest in Brian Dozier. That could be a good, that would definitely be a good spot for a late career

Brian Dozier resurgence. Yeah, and I'm Yeah, I'm thinking he could be a big value next year. I've been reluctant to really pursue him in early drafts because considering he ended last year on a bench roll with the overloaded Dodgers, it wasn't 100% clear he'd have an everyday job. But if you just look at the batt and ball profile, take results out of it, he was pretty much exactly the same hitter he's always been last year. so I think there's definitely something left in the tank.

I will say I kind of don't want them to sign him just because I think Garrett Hampson can be really, really good for fantasy in Colorado. Like that could be a guy who hits 320 with 50 steals. But Brian Derger would be fun there too. You know, we know he has a solid all-around skill set. Right. Scott, you want to look into your outfield rankings? Let's take a look. what are we got

no real surprises Mike Trout Mookie Betts at the top Jady Martinez Bryce Harper at 3 and 4 Christian Yelich I think you could

probably make a case that Bryce Harper could be swapped with either Yelich or judge but we know what the upside there is yeah and I'm sure you wouldn't be making that case

right? No probably not but a case could be made is what I'm saying I feel like you certainly A case could be made, but you are one of the loudest defenders of Harper, as I am. I think you're maybe even a little louder.

And you're one of the loudest skeptics on Yelich, which is justified, but I don't think I'm on the same level with you there. I think the next four guys in the rankings could actually all easily wind up in the top three. Charlie Blackman, who coming off a bad season, but we've seen him. be, I think he was the number one hitter in fantasy two years ago. I mean, bad by his standards. He was still a stud. Right. Course Field will prop you up even if you're not having a great season.

John Carlos Stanton also had a bad season, but he might have been the second best hitter, if not the best hitter in fantasy, with Charlie Blackman two years ago, so we know what the upside is there. And then Ronald Ocuna and Juan Soto, I mean, space is the limit for Ronald Ocuna, and maybe the sky is the limit for Juan Soto,

is how I would put it. It's not exactly like Juan Soto doesn't have the upside that Acuna does. Acuna, I think, just has a little more upside. And here's why. Take what he did in the second half of last season. Translated out to 150 game pace. He hit 301, 131 runs scored, 46 home runs, 109 RBI, and 34th Stollabase. I mean, eat your heart out, Mike Trout.

Yeah. I mean, it never really works that way. Sure, yeah. That's why he's going to go in the first round of drafts. Yeah. Even if you or I might be too risk averse to make that jump. We've seen the upside in action and it's best player in fantasy. Now, he strikes out probably too much to really hit 300.

I think he came with like a 377 babb in the second half. his stolen bases last year were highly dependent on where he hit in the order. He stole 14 bases out of the leadoff spot and I believe two in every other spot in lineup. He probably leads off for them this season, but it's not a guarantee. To me, it would be hard to justify him leading off all season. Just, I mean, in a lineup, you never have any runners on ahead of you. He's probably their best power hitter. I just don't know who else leads off for them.

Yeah, I mean, Enciarte has a history of doing it. All bees could do it. If he doesn't hit lead off, where does he hit? Second or third, with Freeman hitting the other spot. Which, I mean, like, it's, I feel like, and maybe this is an instance where I'm a little too close to it and think I know more than I do, but... That's my job, Scott. The Braves...

The Braves have historically, really, since the early mid-90s, have not been a team that runs much. And they've had fast players before who they haven't let run much. Like Andrew Jones, you know, maybe the rangiest centerfielder ever, I don't think he ever had a 30-steal season. No, I don't think so. He had 20 steel seasons. And Ciarte ran a lot early last season, but that pretty much stopped after May.

Right. I don't think he made it to 30. And Acuna only ran out of the leadoff spot. And even that was like a 30 steel pace. Plus, not just a Braves thing, but usually when a hitter establishes himself as one of your middle of the order guys, he stops running. Yeah, I don't think you can rely on Ronald Acuna as one of your main contributors of steals. If we find out in spring training that, like, Josh Donaldson, is batting second, Freddie Freeman's batting third, and the Coon's batting fourth.

I just don't think there's any way they let him run in that situation. Yeah, too much. Those guys are going to be on base. But look, I'll give him 20. Sure. I just, I don't expect he's going to carry you in the category. I don't think he's going to do it. There's a chance.

The volume he did in the minors. There's a chance. There's a chance. And that's like, you say we're risk avert, two risk averse to draft him in the first round. And I think that's, that's true. Mostly, I just don't want to mess up my first. round pick.

But I don't want to overstate it either because I think I think the downside for Acuna, the realistic worst case scenario, because obviously there's worse if you want to be unrealistic. But the realistic worst case scenario, he stays healthy, is probably just an upton, which is still, you know, a high-end must start outfielder, but it's obviously not first round material. I think you can make the case for him starting at. Number six. I don't think it's reasonable to take him above Trout, Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, or Aronado.

After that, I wouldn't do it, but it's defensible, you know? Yeah. I'm probably not going to have many shares in him because I'm looking at a more late second rounder. So we'll see. After Akuna and Soto, and we kind of gave Soto short shrift, there's a chance he's the best hitter in baseball for the next 10 years. I just don't want, like, he could be Albert Pujols. Like, I like, you know, I love guys, I've always loved guys who walk about as often as they strike out. And that's obviously a great thing.

And Soto did that as a, he was 19 year old. He was the best 19 year old season ever. So I don't, that should, that can't go understated. But the ground ball rate is alarming. Yeah. Yeah, he might have been lucky to hit his 22 home runs in 100. 16 games last season. Yeah.

19 and who knows how that's going to change. Yeah, and the raw power is legitimate. From 2019 on, that may never be an issue again. But looking at it now, I wonder if we should really be counting on it for all the power he showed last year. But he might just be the best version of Freddie Freeman. Yeah. That's not his realistic.

downside. His realistic downside is obviously much lower. I would say like last year's Nicholas Castellanos maybe. But the upside is there for him to be an absolute four category monster

with maybe 10 steals. Yeah, right? It's upside's poohalls. Brian Pooohol. All right. And let's get to some of the question. We'll skim through some of the other outfielder's But this first question, I think, gets to a point. Is Outfield not that deep? It's kind of weak in the middle, I guess.

I'm kind of of the opinion that Outfield will always be deep. Maybe there's three guys playing it for every team. Right. So there's just so many avenues for somebody to emerge that come season's end, it'll never seem shallow. Um, but I mean, we kind of had this discussion last year, too. It looked pretty weak going into the season. But then you had guys like Nick Marcacus and Michael Brantley and, uh, you know,

Yelich was so much better than anybody expected, Akunia and Soto. Like there's always so many breakouts there that. You get so many bites at the apple and outfield is. It's really the point. Right. It's, it's hard to have a, like, it's hard to play in a three outfielder league and feel like you're not. Yeah, I mean more for five outfield. Right.

This question might be answered by the order that you rank them. Who is more likely to bounce back, Giancarlo Stanton or Charlie Blackman? You have Blackman one spot higher. So I assume that's your answer? Yeah. Who's more likely to be the number one outfielder? Of those two? Yeah.

Blackman. Okay. I think. the strikeouts are always going to worry me more than anything else for a hitter. Sure. And Stan had a ton of them last year. And it's, you know, it's hard to predict exactly how he's going to age. Sure.

I could see it getting really ugly. Yeah. I could see it being like a Ryan Howard situation. Chris Davis. Yeah. But I'm not predicting that for Stan now. I, you know, obviously I haven't eight among outfielders. You know, for all the talk of how bad he was last year, he still hit almost 40 homers, right?

With, did he have 100 runs, 100 RBI? Like, it was still a really productive season. It just was an MVP caliber. And we probably shouldn't expect that again, because that was kind of an outlier in terms of the strikeouts. But 45 home runs, plenty realistic in that park. He's still a stud. I just wonder how many more years of that he has left. Does Andrew Benintendi have another level he can reach?

I think so. His bad at ball numbers last season were ugly. Yeah. But it was kind of a tale of two-half scenario, and I think that extended to the bad at ball profile. He hit one of his home runs in the second half. So for half the season, it looked like he had reached another level. And I initially had him, you know, I think I had of Ocunia and Soto. And so I took a closer look at those splits and was like, you know, it was basically my memory of the first half contributing to that.

Because the final numbers weren't much different than his rookie season. Is his upside 2018 Christian Yowich? Or is it more like 2017 Christian Yalich? Yeah, I can't put. MVP upside on him. I mean, I didn't even know Christian Yelich's upside who's 28.

But Christian Yelich has always hit the ball extremely hard. Andrew Benintendi hasn't. That's the one, that's the significant difference. The rest of the profile looks pretty similar. Right.

I think Benintendez's upside is probably more like AJ Pollock back before the injuries started. Yeah, he was the, I think he was the number one hitter in fantasy one year. Yeah, so maybe.

that may even be too high. Because I don't, he's never run quite that much. Also a tough, tough place to hit for a left-handed batter. Yeah. All right, have we seen the best of Chris Bryant

or George Springer? The best? Yes. I'm leaning yes on that. Yeah, I mean, Chris Bryant's still only like 25, I think.

Mm-hmm. But he, the skill profile has moved in the wrong direction. I'd say. Which may be attributable to the shoulder injury he was battling last year. Could be attributable to the batting coach. There's been a lot of talk that their batting coach was focused on hitting the ball to all fields.

And I don't know if that's the best utilization of a Chris Bryant. And furthering the point on the shoulder, we never really got to the bottom of what it was. So I'm not sure it's behind him. I'm sure yeah and that's the kind of thing that could sidetrack a career so I

I just it's possible because he's so young that you know he bounces back at an MVP level this year and it's all a distant memory but right now I think the stock is deservedly down on Chris Bryant

all right and one last question before I have to get out of the podcast room more likely breakout here Cody Bellinger or Reese Hoskins? I think the more likely breakout is Cody Belanger. Because of the steals? I feel like the power ceiling is higher. Okay.

And I feel like he has more, like, I think Reese Hoskins was pretty great last year. Yeah. You know? I feel like there's more ground that Bellinger's able to make up than Hoskins. All right. Makes sense. And that's it. For the first of two episodes of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast,

Scott and I will be back on Friday with a mailbag. So if you want to get your emails on the show, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the way to do it. And maybe we'll have an appearance by one Heath Cummings. Whoa. Who is that? I haven't seen him in months. It's been a while.

But he is back in the office tomorrow, grinding away at his rankings, I'd like to get Heath Cummings thoughts. So we'll see if we can get him in. Adam is out for the entire month of January, so you're going to be hearing a lot of Scott, Heath, and I for the next couple of weeks, and I think that's just great. For Scott White, I'm Chris Towers. Thanks for listening.