Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/08: What You Missed in September; Early ADP Questions (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 8, 2020

Did you stop paying attention to Fantasy Baseball once football season started? It's ok, you can admit it! Well after we run through some quick news items (2:42), we'll tell you about some AUG/SEP stars. Garrett Hampson (7:05), Tommy Edman (10:00), Jorge Soler (12:50) and more ... Let's take a look at early Average Draft Position. Nolan Arenado #9 overall! Is that justified (26:55)? Do we believe in Rafeal Devers as a second round pick (34:23)? ... We discuss Gleyber Torres in Round 3 (37:32), why nobody seems to like Charlie Blackmon (40:40) and if Josh Bell is a good value at his current ADP (44:26). Plus keeper questions about Brandon Woodruff, Jack Flaherty and many, many more ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome back to the show, everybody. Fantasy baseball today. Special holiday gift for you.

The return of Scott White. Scott, how much time did I miss? Two weeks off, Scott. We missed you. Well, yeah. I missed you too, but I've been missing you for a long time, madam. Not just the last two weeks. Yeah, everybody has been.

I assume everybody's been missing me for a long time. Well, I'm here. Scott's here. Chris is not. Chris had an emergency dental appointment. I'm not sure if I should. Is this a HIPAA violation? I'm not sure I should have announced that.

But we wish him and his teeth the best. We are going to talk about a few average draft position notes. Why is Nolan Aronado? a sudden ninth when he's basically the same guy he's always been and that's usually been like a top five pick. Is our Glaber Torres and Raphael Devers going a little bit too high? Why does everybody hate Charlie Blackman? He looks like a total steal to me.

And what about Josh Bell? No respect for Josh Bell. First, though, somebody sent us an email and said, hey, what happened in September? I missed it. I stopped playing. So that's going to be the big port. of this show. Scott, you have a great article up.

How can people find it? It's a little old now, but... It's from October 1st. Very useful. You know, nobody was paying attention to baseball back then, so I guess I could republish it.

It's not like any of the numbers have changed, but anyway, 32 things you may have missed with the start of fantasy football. That's a lot of things. Yeah. And it's also kind of just an arbitrary number, right?

Usually it'd be like tens or fives, you know, that's what you choose. But I just went with whatever I had, and it was 32. Well, that is weird. Things you may have missed with the start of fantasy football. So it includes, it basically starts from August 1st, not just September like the emailer was asking. But a lot of good information from there and a lot of big things that you need to know

about. So I would recommend Googling it. That's probably the easiest way to find it. But I'll look into getting it republished because the information is still good. It's really, really good information. It's really, really useful, and it's stuff we're going to be talking about in the coming weeks and months as we get you ready for the fantasy baseball season. Now, I'll give you a few news items. The Dodgers signed Jimmy Nelson.

Do you care, Scott White? I don't really. I mean, I think if there's any organization that can help him recapture his form, well, it's probably the Astros. But the Dodgers are high on that list. but they have so many rotation pieces, and I just can't imagine he's going to be high in that pecking order. The White Sox signed Steve Sheeshk selling Seychelles. Seeshik.

The White Sox signed Steve Zestek. And it's a one-year deal. She-shek, yeah. One-year deal, $6 million. He's been with the C-Shack recently. He's been around, Marlins, Mariners, and he's had a really good career. 269 career ERA,

four straight seasons with a sub three ERA. Steve Sechek is basically always good. They have Alex Colome, who had a nice year, 30 saves. He had a 280 ERA. What do you make of the Seashchak shining? And then let's never speak of it again. Hopefully we won't need to. I prefer predictability at the back end of bullpen.

I mean, Cishak is a guy who could capably close, but it seems like the white sucks already have one of those in Alex Colomé. I don't think Colomé is such a lockdown option that it's unthinkable. Cishak could take over at some point this year, but it's not something I'm expecting either. I think he's, you'd have to play in a league that goes pretty deep into the middle reliever pool to get into Cishak, I feel like. Yeah, he's not like a super strikeout guy or anything like that,

but he's solid. But I think it's just like if Alex Colomé struggles, blows two saves in a row or something, we're going to be like, hey, pick up Steve Seashack. Yeah. And in an AL-only league, is probably the clearest handcuff for Colomé at this point. Right.

And finally, the Red Sox used their replay room to steal signals in 2018 when they won the World Series. So, all right, everybody. You know I've been saying it for weeks now. we are stripping the Astros of their 2017 championship. We are stripping the Red Sox of their 2018 championship. We have no choice. No, we're not.

This revisionist history is stupid. It's stupid when the NCAA does it. Nobody takes it seriously. Everybody still thinks the Reggie Bush USC team won a championship. And no amount of stripping of titles is going to change that. Did you miss my text? 33 things you missed in August and September. Scott's cell phone.

And I learned on Twitter yesterday that apparently it's appropriate, inappropriate to ever have sounds play on your phone. What? That is not something people do anymore. Yeah, but in a house, like, I need to turn the sound on or else I miss calls or FaceTime. Right. But apparently we're weirdos, Adam. Apparently, people are so, like, adjoined to their phones that it's always on a surface. directly in front of it and they're just periodically glancing down at it and and I've always

being aware when somebody tries to contact them me if I go like if I go to a movie or something or somewhere else where I have to turn the volume down and I forget to turn it back up after I come out of it I could go 24 hours without checking my phone and then come back to like eight text messages 24 hours without texting without checking your phone I could I mean I pretty much just text my wife I don't like texting well you're texted me today. Well, yeah. My wife and work stuff. All right, Scott. Here's our email of the day. It's from Daniel. Please consider putting together a show based on September

All-Stars. Which players historically have the best stats of the month of September? No one remembers the regular season champion. Their name isn't engraved on the trophy. So we won't do exactly that, Daniel, but we did use this as inspiration for today's show. And players that really stood out in the last two months of the 2019 season, Were there any that, I mean, really headline it for you? Well, I think maybe Garrett Hampson, and it wasn't even all of the last two months,

but, you know, if you tuned out in mid-September, even, you missed kind of the whole Garrett-Hampson phenomenon, and you're probably still thinking of him as that trendy sleeper who did absolutely nothing in 2019. He did do nothing until, those final few weeks final 16 games to be exact he hit 343 with 5 homers

seven steals in 16 games remember and struck out 13 times so and I think I remember he made some kind of change with his swing and you know the usual

I mean not the usual but there were actual reasons behind this explosion other than just he randomly got hot at against I guess third-tier bullpen arms or something like that. By the way, Scott, four of those five home runs were on the road. Two of them were in San Francisco at San Francisco. One was at the Dodgers.

There you go. Big old park. Two at the Dodgers, pardon me, in two separate games. Then he had a two-homer game. He had eight played appearances, so that was a 16- inning game. But at the Giants. I don't know. Like, Hampson struck me as a guy coming up, particularly heading into last season,

who had good extra base power. I thought maybe he could top out as like an Adam Eaton power-wise. So I'm not sure that, you know, five homers in 16 games, I'm not sure that that's something he's going to build on. Maybe it is, I don't know. But it's more just the seven steals

in an environment that is so steals poor. And, you know, he's obviously going to be playing in Colorado, so that's going to help his Babbat, going to give him a much higher batting average ceiling. If he, and I think he's, he can play second base. I think he's really good in center field. I think I remember seeing that.

And that might be where the Rockies have a bigger need. So if he can, he can secure that job or full time at bat's just moving all over the place. I think he's going to deserve an even higher pick than he did, even deserve more sleeper hype than he did going into 2019. So he is on fantasy pros. They have ADP up now. Garrett Hampson's in a group of three players who, depending on your league, depending on where you play, might have, well, they'll have infield eligibility. Well, I don't know about Senzel because I don't think Senzel is just outfield eligible, right?

Right now for us? Yes. Okay. So it's Kingery, Hampson, Senzel, back to back to back. They're 175th overall, basically. What do you think? Who would you prefer there? Scott Kingery, Garrett Hampson, Nick Senzel.

I would prefer Hampson. You know what? I think Senzel, actually. And Roto, I might go Hampson just because of the steals need, but if we're talking to Points League, Senzel. So it's kind of split. All right, so Hampson was one headline, or who else really stood out to you the last two months?

Do you know the name Tommy Edmund, Adam? I do on the St. Louis Cardinals. He was batting leadoff, I believe, toward the end of the year. Yes, he was. was and he also went crazy at the end of the season and went from being kind of just this space filler in the lineup. I felt like, you know, another just obscure infielder that the Cardinals bring up and give it bats for some silly reason like Daniel Descalso, somebody in that mold.

But he started to look a lot more interesting than that toward the end of the season. he in September alone he was 6 for 6 and stolen bases but he also had 6 homers 4 doubles and 6 no 6 homers

4 triples and 6 doubles and that brought his season numbers up to a 304 batting average in an 850 OPS With 15 steals in 92 games yeah yeah so it's another situation of

Okay, well, this guy, by today's standard, looks like a prolific base dealer, 15 for 16 in steals in half the seasons, basically half the season's time, as he pointed out. If he can provide anything at the plate, he's going to be a big deal in fantasy, and I think he's definitely built to hit for average. The power in September, kind of like Hampson, a little surprising, but not totally unbelievable. either. I think there's a chance he ends up becoming like a must-start player in fantasy, and certainly in standard 5-by-5 rotel leagues. He's going to get drafted in the middle rounds just for the steals potential.

So this is Tommy Edmund. He's 24. He'll be 25 in May. He became the lead-off hitter for the Cardinals. Bat at 304 with 11 homers and 15 steals in 92 games. And it was pretty much good, you know, the entire time he was up, but was really, really good

in August and September. As Scott mentioned, and he's a switch hitter, which is nice, and his splits were pretty even against lefties and righties. Now, he didn't, I said he batted lead off. He did a bit, he kind of split between lead off and batting second, but either way you're going to take that. So, yeah. Wait, did I ask you where he was eligible?

Second and third base. Okay. Jorge Soler, you talked about in your article and how he became more of an all-around hitter, wasn't just the all-or-nothing power guy. He, I think, was third in baseball in home runs. Yeah. If you said, hey, who hit the most?

Who are the top three in home runs last year? Would anybody think about it out there, people? I'm going to give you, like, five seconds. Who were the top three in home runs? One of them was a rookie. He had 50, or he at 51, I think. Pete Alonza was one. E. E. E. E. E. E. Horeno Suarez was two, and Jorge Solair was three.

So, interesting thing with Solair, like, his plate discipline got better. after the All-Star break. But in September... Much better. Yeah, in July and August, it was one-to-one, walked a strikeout. Which is crazy,

considering where Jorge Saler came from. In September... And yeah, it wasn't as good in September, but it was still... 11 walks 28 strikeouts. It was still greatly improved from the first three months, greatly improved from the season-long numbers.

I mean, he was a different player in the second half when the fewest people were paying attention. And not only that, Not only did he improve the plate discipline, but his line drive rate went way up in September 2. He wasn't on balls in play. He wasn't as easy of an out.

He raised his babbip ceiling. He kind of, he, like, it was impressive enough that he had this big power breakthrough that we were waiting years for, back to when he was playing for the Cubs, this power breakthrough. And then he showed that, like there's a chance for him to be an all-around good player like you said it the battered ball profile from the second half looks a lot like MVP season john carlo stand to me i mean it's it's very impressive what he was able to do at the plate his hard hit rate uh was off the charts like i i think i think there are going to be some people who look at horay solare heading into 2019 and think okay career season i uh i should know better to

invest in this guy, but I think he may just be scratching the surface of his potential, and he's somebody I expect to have a lot of shares in. I'm so torn because, you know, if they make changes to the baseball, I think you have to look at players whose primary source of fantasy production was the home run. And if you look at the season-long numbers from Jorge Soler, that's definitely the case. He hit 265, and he stole three bases. but 48 home runs and 117 RBI's, 95 runs. He played 162 games, by the way.

So if Jorge Soler is a 260 hitter and the home runs come down, they're going to come down, right? He's not going to hit 48. They would come down for everybody. And I think Jorge Saler is less worrisome than like a, just going off the top of my head, but like it could tell Marte, because Jorge Soler, in terms of how hard he hits the ball, the launch angle at all that.

I mean, he's a power hitter. I see. So, like, he's a home run hitter, and I think he's a home run hitter no matter what ball is in play. He does hit the ball. He does hit the ball-related thing. I mean, the fact that the number, the exact number of home runs he hit was 48.

Okay, that's probably ball-related, but, you know, it would affect everybody, like it would affect him if there was a change. And I'm not even really, like, factoring that in because I have no reason to believe that's happening. Okay. You know, it's just kind of a, it's such an random variable that it's not even worth accounting for to me. Unless we hear something, unless we hear something concrete, which I don't expect we will.

What the ball, you mean? Yeah, because there have been, there's been so much denial along the way. I don't know that there's been denial. I mean, they've been pretty open about the ball needing to change and that there's something different about the drag on the ball. I think they've been sort of vague about, you know, the exact cause of it. Right, the home runs. And the exact effect has been vague. But the home runs were down in the postseason.

And so I'm wondering if a change is already in place. Yeah. Noticably, I think. You know, like some teams were talking about. There were some people speculating, but it's the, there have been other reasons suggested for why that may be, other than them going back to the old balls. I don't remember what they are at the top of my head, which makes it not very useful to bring up.

But yeah, I think, I don't think you should use that as, that should be your reason to assume that anything's going to be different in 2020. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But it's just the impact is too far reaching and it's too, it's just way too speculative for me to really even factor into my thinking. Talking about Soler, him being just a power hitter.

Here are your top, let's go top eight in home run to fly ball rate last year. Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, Fran Mill Reyes, Pete Alonzo, George Springer, Ehuyenio Suarez, Jorge Soler, and Eloy Jimenez. All of them had a home run to fly ball rate of 27% or higher. So there was seventh overall,

28.1%. But his batted ball data, like his hard contact rate, soft contact rate, and compares very favorably to everyone on this list. You know, 46.8% hard contact rate. The one who really stands out with terms of hard contact rate being an outlier is

Elohimenez, because everyone on this list has 42% hard contact rate or better other than Eloy who's at 38.1%. That's fan graphs, right? Yes, it's fan graphs. Okay. Different from statcast. Basically, Jorge Saler hits the crap out of the ball,

and you can justify a high home run to fly ball rate, because the other guys in that range also hit the ball hard. Okay. Kyle Schwerber, he's interesting, Scott. What did we see from Kyle Schwerber in the second, or the last couple months? So I had kind of written off Kyle Schwerber as not exactly a failed prospect, but a disappointment given the hype coming

and given how high he was drafted, because it looked like he was just going to be this slugging platoon bat and not really a transcendent or even high-end, kind of player. But he took steps toward becoming a middle of the line of force over the final two months of 2019, hitting 304 with 14 homers in a 1043 OPS. More significant than those actual numbers, though, is kind of like Jorge Soler. He reduced the strikeout rate. He upped his line drive rate, which improves the BAPIP ceiling.

Obviously, both of those together improve the batting average ceiling. Maybe not just a home run guy if he can sustain those rates. I will also point out that while the season long numbers were the best of his career, his XBA, expected batting average and XWBA, were both actually lower than his batting average in Wobah, so he actually underachieved, according to those peripherals, which also suggests that there are better times ahead for Kyle Schwerber, and maybe we need to start classifying him as a top 36 type outfielder again. I don't know, man.

He's had, Kyle Schwerber's had, sorry for clearing my throat on the ear there, he's had good half seasons before. 2017 after the All-Star break, he hit 253 with 17 homers in 61 games. He slugged 5.59. 2018, before the All-Star break, he hit 249, with 18 home runs in 83 games. So he was on pace for more. He's going to hit more than 30 home runs. This was better, though.

This was, yeah. This was better. This was better. And I don't know that the peripherals backed up everything as well as they did for sure. for this year. I mean, I'm looking beyond just, oh, this guy hit a bunch of home runs this month. No, I get you. The batting average was much better.

The last two months he had 304. He had a 349 Babbitt. He had 349 Babbat. And here's the thing. In his last 53 games, the Cubs faced 10 left-handed starters. They faced for the season the second, they saw the second fewest at bats against left-handed pitchers. So I don't even know if that's fluky because three of the top or three of the bottom five, I guess,

three of the five teams that face the fewest lefties in terms of at bats, not played appearances, but at bats, were in the National League Central. And you take, for example, the National League West consistently high at bats against lefties year after year, not so much 2019, but before that. So maybe it's just a division that has a lot of righties. and he has always hit righty as well. So that's something to keep in mind, but he just didn't face the left. He hit lefties better last year.

I mean, not great, but better, enough to think that he's going to get more playing time against them. He had 229, but with power. You know, you pointed to a 350-ish babbip during that stretch where he was batting over 300. We're not asking him to hit over 300. We're asking him to hit better than the 238 he did in 2018 and the 211 he did in 2017. If he can hit 260, 265 with that kind of power, always had a good batting eye. I mean, he becomes Max Muncie, but in the outfield, basically, at that point. He's going ahead of, I know they play different positions, but he's going ahead of Justin Turner.

He's going ahead of Fran Mill Reyes, which, you know, it's fine. Fran Mill, yeah, I definitely do that. Justin Turner, third base is so deep that it might just be a case of Turner getting squeezed out there, but in terms of what I expect them to do with the plate, I'd still prefer Turner. And he's going, Schwerber's going ahead of J.D. Davis, and that's the last guy we'll talk about, because J.D. Davis was nearly a fantasy winner for me.

They just didn't play him every day, and it didn't make any sense, because he was practically their best hitter down the stretch for the Mets. And I know J.D. Davis, what he did really caught your eye. And who would you rather have Schwerber or J.D. Davis? Man, I was lapping up some J.D. Davis every opportunity I got in the second half. And for a while he was getting regular playing time, right? But then everybody came back to full health,

and he got pushed out again, shockingly. I would prefer, I have to consult my rankings, and my rankings may not account for some of the off-season moves that have been made. Not that there have been many for these two teams. But I would prefer Schwerber. because I am more confident in the playing time, but I think J.D. Davis is a more well-rounded hitter,

and if I can trust the playing time to be there, I would probably take him instead. So it's close. I have Schwerber 39th among outfielders. I have J.D. Davis 44th. that's in standard roto. J.D. Davis is kind of like Kyle Schwerber, though, that even though he had career best numbers,

he underachieved his ex-bat, BA, and ex-Woba. So, like, peripherally... Seeshik. He should have been even better than he was. But that's so weird, because in the second half, after the All-Star break, J.D. Davis had a 396 babbip. So how does someone who had a 396 babb in the second half

underperform? I know you're giving... Well, yeah, you're giving full-season stats, I guess. But we're not really paying attention to what he did at the best of the first half. beginning of the season. And part of it is I'm kind of part the reason I'm citing XBA more than more and it's look it has its own shortcomings. It's not a perfect stat. I think it accounts for more things than BABIP does. I kind of feel like for our purposes at least BABIP is becoming a little outdated because we see the

wide range of X, like there was an assumption when the BABIP analysis became mainstream that oh, everybody should finish with about a 300 Babbitt, but we're seeing hitters fall into very different places on the Babbitt spectrum. So J.D. Davis, part of the reason his XBA is so high is because he profiles for a very high Babbup. His season long mark was 355, which made him a 307 hitter. He hits the ball hard. He doesn't hit many fly balls. He hits a lot of line drives.

He hits to all fields. All of that is good for Babbup. and while I would not expect his second half babb of near 400, like you said, to persist, maybe the season-long mark of 355 isn't so far-fetched. Okay, that's a sneak peek at 32 things you may have missed. What's the full title? Well, I may change it if I'm republishing it. I may not mention fantasy football in there,

but there's 32 things you may have missed with the start of fantasy football. I may change it to like at the end of 2019 or something like that. Check it out. Scott does have, just tweet it. Just tweet it, Scott. Just tweet it? Yeah, that's easier. At CBS Scott White.

I am at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R, and we will, yeah, we'll answer some questions via Twitter, via email, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We do have some of your emails in this show. I have some ADP questions based on Fantasy Pro's average draft position. Why is Nolan Aronado coming off a 315-41-118 season? with 102 runs, by the way. Going ninth overall, he's perhaps even better than he's ever been slightly, except he's not driving in 130 runs, only 118 last year. And ninth now, and he's always safely, you know, 4 to 6.

I know it's not a huge difference, but... Yeah. You know what? The thing is, it really makes sense when you look at ADP, because it's a bunch of steals guys that go ahead of them, plus, like, Garrett Cole, and then I think the one, well, all right, here's ADP. Acuna, Trout, Yelich, Bellinger, Betts, Garrett Cole, Bregman Lindor-Aeronado. And I think there's plenty of debate there, but Breggman Lindor-Arenato, Scott. So what do you think?

So, yeah, we're going to be asking these kinds of questions a lot this year. I know Chris Towers on Twitter yesterday was, I don't. aghast that Max Muncie was going in the seventh round on average. Like, coming off a record-setting season like we had with all the home runs, there are a lot of hitters who had incredible seasons more than... Honestly, I look at some of the hitters going in the fifth round and think these are first-round-type numbers these guys put up. It's...

And it's not a case of, okay, well, you have to adjust your thinking, because, you know, the baseline for what greatness is went up. I mean, it's a little bit of that. But part of it, too, it's just greatness got redistributed a little more evenly across the whole hitter spectrum. So that, honestly, I don't see a whole lot of elasticity there among the top 50 or so hitters. I don't have a major preference for, you know, like George Springer, I could take, you could see go as late as round five, but his numbers are comparable to like Juan Soto, who sometimes goes at the end of round one. So, yeah, there's a lot of, we're going to be getting a lot of those types of questions, specifically in Aranado's case. And, you know, I've long been in Aranados corner. I love the consistency from him. I think you take him with your first round pick.

There's nothing you have to worry about in terms of, you know, missing there. But I have him 10th in my roto ranking, so actually a spot lower, I have him 13th in my head-to-head rankings. A lot of it is just there's a greater need to go after the big arms early in drafts since the drop-off there is much, much, much, much, much steeper than when the good hitters run out. I'm not sure the good hitters ever run out in a standard 12th team. draft, frankly. So I got to get Garekull, Justin Verlander, at least in points league. I got Scherzer ahead of Aeronado as well. And part of it is third base is insanely deep.

I mentioned Justin Turner, a reason he might get passed over for Kyle Schwerber is because everybody already has a third basement or two. Justin Turner is like my 20th ranked third basement. And it's not like he did anything wrong other than get hurt again last year. It's just there's so much. But what isn't deep? Like what third base is, you're right.

What isn't deep catcher? Which, you know, he's even better than last year. Second base, maybe. But third base is just, just takes it to another level with the fact that I can't even get Justin Turner. I could barely get him in my top 20. I got Vladimir Guerrero outside my top 12 at third base, knowing all the potential he has.

and I know I'm on a oddball as far as that goes, but I just have a hard time justifying him over all the proven studs at the position. Yeah. So it's... I don't know if I care... I don't know yet. I have to do some more drafts,

but I don't know if I care about position with hitters anymore. Just give me production, and I'll just figure out position. Well, even at the high end, even if you don't want to talk about that aspect so much, which... you know, you could conceivably stock everybody's utility spot with a third basement.

That's how many good third basemen. Just everybody dedicates their utility spot as a second third base spot, and we'll be fine probably in a 12-team league. But beyond that, Alex Bregman and even more so Anthony Rendon have really closed the gap so that the difference between those three is, you know, you're kind of splitting hairs and in different formats I would probably rank them differently, but they're all basically the same kind of hitter. And you can, you know, if you miss out on Aeronado,

I actually have Bregman ahead of Aeronado. If you miss out on either of those, they're still Rendon, who very likely will put up numbers that are just as good. I think Bregman ahead of Aeronado is the right call in a points league, because the plate discipline is just, it's so much better. And the doubles are so much better.

Well, potentially. Because I don't think Aeronado is a big doubles guy. But in a Roto League, I don't, I think I... In a Roto league, I would take Aeronado over Bregman. Yeah, you're right. I do too. I should have clarified that. I actually have Aeronado 10th overall. As I mentioned, I have Bregman 11th overall in Standard Roto,

and I have Rendon 14th overall. In points, the order of those three is Bregman, Rendon, Aeronado. I actually have Aronado the third of three, though I may talk myself out of that, just given Rendon's injury history. Yeah, and Rendon coming off a career year, and Aronado basically assured of hitting around 40 home runs with about 115 RBIs, more than 100 runs,

and is he a 315 hitter? I don't know, but he's probably a 300 hitter. So he's so consistent. And the thing is, like, why is Nolan Aronado going ninth? And I'm not even disagreeing with it. think it's a really, really good pick at nine. The only thing is he has stolen two or three bases every year of his career. You are putting yourself in a bind.

If you think you can get Trevor Story or Trey Turner in round two, that's a great pairing with Aeronado, and that's realistic with ADP because Turner's, our story is 12 and Turner's 14, so it's not guaranteed, but it's possible. I don't know if you want to reach for Tatis in round two to get some steals. I don't know if you want to go for maybe Starling Marte or Jonathan VR in round three to get some steals. But, you know, Acuna, Trout, Yelich, Lindor, they're going to steal some bases. And Aeronado's going to be a huge detriment in that category. All right, Scott, let's go to our second question.

Is Raphael Demers really worth a... second round pick? Are you buying him as a round two pick, Raphael Devers? So I have him in my second round toward the end. I'm torn about it though because I do feel like just judging from the actual numbers, specifically the fact that his BAPIP was high in a way that doesn't look sustainable to me. I think he overachieved last year. Not in a huge way, not in a no, he's going to come crashing back down to earth sort of way.

But yeah, he overachieved. I don't expect him to be as good in 2020 as he was in 2019, unless he just gets better, which is certainly a possibility considering he's 23 years old. And he wouldn't have to get, he wouldn't have to improve by nearly as much as he did this past year to justify a second round pick. So he's technically in my second round,

but it's, you know, I'm not totally sold on that. Devers is a guy that doesn't hit lefties well. He has 743 OPS, which you know what? It's really not that big of a deal. Like, if you mash righties, you can get by with 743 OPS. 750 OPS for a lefty on lefty is, yeah, it's not raising any red flags for me. He struggled down the stretch. He had a 705 OPS in his last 33 games.

He stole eight bases in his first. 60 games and then none in his last 96, so let's just assume we're not going to get much there. But his hard contact rate stinks. It's like around 100th or something like that. I have it somewhere in my notes.

Hard contact rate. Whatever. It's low. So his profile and yeah, the Babbitt was a 339. It was also 342 as a rookie, so I don't know what you make of that. It's been 342, 281, 339. But he

just doesn't hit the ball that hard, but then again, he only hit 32 home runs. It was the doubles. He had 54 doubles. Plate discipline's not great. I don't know. He doesn't seem like a guy who has the profile of a star, and yet he was the number four hitter in Roto, number eight, and points last year. I do have to point out,

and this is one of those discrepancies that I don't totally understand. I know Chris has explained it before, and I still don't understand his explanation, but the way fan graphs and statcast records hard hits is is different

I'm not totally sure which I'd say is better statcast gets cited more often right now just because that's where we are Stackcast says Raphael Devers had a top 20 hard hit rate and a top it looks like 15 average exit velocity

so make of that what you will Van Graf says his hard hit rate wasn't that great, though it looks like his medium hit rate was pretty high. Well, there you go. That's probably the discrepancy there. Maybe. Interesting.

All right. Third question. Should Glaber Torres be a third round pick? Because this is a guy that I think could be hurt by a change in the baseball, because he hit 26 doubles in 144 games. That's bad. He has one triple in his career. He stole five bases.

He's not a batting average standout. He's not a plate discipline standout. But he had 38 home runs and drove in 90 with 96 runs in 144 games. And he's like Devers, 23 years old and could just get better. And he was at one point the top prospect in baseball, depending on your source. So Torres is interesting. He overachee – well, he had a great year, an unexpectedly great year, I'd say, last year. Should Glaver Torres be a third round pick?

I have him in my third round. And part of it is position scarcity, because I think if you are going to play that game, second base is the position to do it at. He did overachieve, but it was the second straight year he overachieved, and he didn't overachieve by nearly as much as he did the first year. He did cut down on his strikeouts in a noticeable way that second year.

And I think the fact that, He's in what looks like clearly the deepest lineup in baseball elevates him beyond his numbers too. I wouldn't be surprised if he took a little step back next year, but not in a way that's going to make him... Not in a way that's going to make you disappointed. You locked up your second base spot in the third round with him. And if he doesn't already have shortstop eligibility, he will by week one. It seems like he'll open as the starting shortstop for the Yankees. So that's a plus.

A lot of guys have dual eligibility, but Torres will be one of them. And he hits a lot of fly balls in a good park to do it. And I just want to see where he bats in the order. I don't know how much it matters, but he's not a huge plate appearance guy. So, you know, we shall see. But Torres in the third round. So let me just take a look at ADP here. Let me toggle the second base.

Would you rather have Glaibor Torres in the third round or Catele-Marté in the... Fourth round. I would rather have Cotel Marte in the second round, frankly. That's where I have him going. So, yeah, Cotel Marte is one of those with a big asterisk for me when I look at the early ADP. Would you rather have Glaibre Torres in the third round or DJ LeMayhew in the sixth round in a 12-team league? Probably LeMayhew.

I mostly buy LeMayhew what he did. and I would rather use that third round pick on like an ace pitcher. Yeah, I think if LeMay, he was going in the seventh round in a points league, that would be a mistake because he's going to lead off for probably the best lineup in baseball and he's not going to strike out much, and he's going to probably perform like a third round pick, I would guess, in a points league. Just so many at bats, runs, scored, get on base, whatever. Okay, next question.

Why does everyone hate Charlie Blackman? Charlie Blackman is going in the fourth round. I know. What a year he had. This might be the biggest head scratcher for me, too, of what I've seen from mock drafts I've taken part in and these ADP results. It doesn't make any sense. All I can figure is that people have decided he's getting old. And he is.

I mean, he's going to be 34 this year, I think. But reversed some of the concerning trends that we saw heading into last season and had, a season with first round caliber numbers 314 batting efforts 32 home runs 112 runs scored I mean he was Charlie Blackman who has been

basically a fixture in the first or at worst the second round for the past three years you know oh yeah oh yeah so I don't I don't know why like I said

when we were talking earlier about we're going to be asking these questions a lot why is this great hitter going this low. Somebody has to get pushed down. I don't know why Charlie Blackman is that guy. I can't. I'm assuming it's just because of his age, but it's not because of his production. Glabor Torres, sorry to interrupt you. How could you take Glabor Torres over Charlie Blackman? I just don't see a justification for it. You are talking about a lot of batting average points. Yeah, I don't either. I don't either. I did say I also have Glabertores going in my third round like ADP shows,

but I have Blackman going at the end of the second. So I'm with you there. Yeah. And he, look. One thing that concerns me a little bit. I've seen this before, and sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesn't. But his first 28 games, he was 790 OPS, not very good for somebody who plays in Cores. Next 42 games, he had a 1201 OPS. He had a 70-point fantasy week. I don't know if any of that remembers that, but Charlie Black who scored 70 points one week.

He batted 379 with 17 homers in a 42-game stretch. And that was a real big chunk of his season because his last 70 games, 7-0, he had an 80. 835 OPS, which would be a huge letdown for Blackman. So, I mean, you can look at his season and say 42 games were incredible. 98 games were 830-ish, no, 815-ish OPS. Maybe he, maybe that's bad. And he's coming off a 2018 season where he had an 860 OPS and wasn't really that great. Right.

I was more worried about Charlie Blackman going into last year than I am going into this year, especially since I mean he looked like Charlie Blackman peripherally too it's not like it'd be one thing if you point to that 40 game stretch and

okay that's why the numbers were inflated in a way we've never seen before but he was basically Charlie Blackman for the full season and I remember we had we had a guest on midseason and I think it was in the middle of during that hot stretch for Charlie Blackman and you asked the question,

would you rather have Mookie Betts or Charlie Blackman rest of season? And he chose Charlie Blackman. So it's not like the industry had already written Charlie Blackman off at that point. I thought it was crazy. I thought it was the obvious answer. I don't remember that at all.

You don't remember that? I can't remember who that was. So I probably shouldn't have brought that up either. But that's where my mind goes. If you make that joke or that reference that you always reference that I never remember and I always ask you what it is. Once again, I have no idea what it's from.

I don't think so, Tim. No idea. Oh, it's home improvement? Yeah. Okay, okay. All right, final question. Is Josh Bell a good value at 80th overall? He's going after Matt Olson,

after Jorge Saler, after Victor Robles. Josh Bell was the fantasy MVP based on average draft position for the first half. He was on pace before the All-Star break. on pace for 302 batting average with 50 home runs and 155 RBIs. After the All-Star break, he batted 233 with 10 home runs and 55 games. He still had basically 1-to-one walk-strikeout ratio, which was good, but he was awful after the break. Obviously, it was the home-run derby that got him.

But is Josh Bell a good value at 80th overall? I mean, I have him 55th in this format we're talking about here, so I would say so just based on that. It's he's a very curious case though because when he had that monster first half, you looked at the the peripherals, the expected stats and it basically backed up what he was doing. And yet he still had this significant decline in the second half, bringing his numbers to a point where, you know, the season long numbers still look great. and the expected numbers still back up what he was doing, but obviously that didn't hold at the halfway point, so are we sure it's going to hold going into next season?

I don't think we can be, but 55th overall, considering what his final numbers looked like, is still a pretty big discount, you know? Right. I mean, he had a, it was mostly carried by that first half, but he had a studly season. Would you rather have Jorge Soler, or Josh Bell in a vacuum?

I have Salare 10 spots behind Bell. So that's what I do, I think. Although I am going to... These full rankings aren't published yet, and I put them together in October. I may have sobered up on some players. I may have some slight changes of opinion based on early ADP and stuff I've been seeing in mock drafts.

So that's subject to change. but as of now, I'm going to say Bell. I read an article about Josh Bell on S.com. Would you like me to read the analysis there? On what dot com? S.I.com. Oh, okay. I would call that side, but what do I know?

S.I.com. Sports Illustrated. So here's, it's long. Stop me when you get bored and I'll summarize. In order to analyze Josh Bell at the plate, you must first acknowledge that he is a switch hitter. While he is significantly better from the left side of the plate, both from a power and average standpoint, his ability to swing from either side

is a part of the Jekyll and Hyde story from last season. It appears as if teams were unaware or unconcerned with his preference for the left side, as they didn't seem to make much of an effort to force him to the right side of the plate early on. As you can see from the graph below, there was a more concerted effort by teams to match Bell up with left-handed pitchers

in order to force him to his weaker side. While I could have stopped there, after seeing Bell splits between right-left-handed pitching, it didn't feel like the whole story, and it wasn't. It wasn't just who was pitching to Josh Bell that made a difference, but also how they were pitching to him. Early in the season, Bell feasted on first pitches, hitting 366 with 14 extra base hits.

That makes sense, considering 57.6% of first pitches to him last season were fastballs, and he's a good fastball hitter. So pitchers caught on to this, and you could see in the deviation from the original plan against Bell. After the All-Star break, he saw fastballs on only 49. 9% of first pitches. It's not a huge decrease, but a bet on a fastball went from being a winning one to a losing one, and it kept Bell off balance.

Pitchers started throwing more and more breaking balls and changed up to Josh, excuse me, low in the zone, and at 6'4 he had trouble reaching them. That's not all, though. Remember, when I said that Bell got more lefty matchups in the second half of the year, well, already we went over how he struggles against lefties, but what's interesting is that it's a Southpaws fastball that he has the hardest time. with his bat speed being slower from the right side of the plate it becomes more important that he is able to sit on the fastball and guess correctly considering the better mix from opposing

pitchers during the second half of the season against bell he wasn't able to do that he was one for 16 against lefty four seamers in the second half of the season the end wow got the whole article well read not the entire didn't get bored once but most it was actually interesting right they pitched him differently they made him face more lefties they went down in the zone he struggled against left-handed fastballs So all things that he'll have the offseason to adjust to, but obviously an explanation that I had never seen before and not something that's so apparent when you just look at his player page.

I can't wait for switch hitting to go away because it just introduces these obscure variables. I mean, they're basically a different player from each side of the plate, and that makes it hard to reconcile. Why would it go away, Scott? Because this always happens. It seems to be becoming less of a. trend. Maybe that is that my imagination?

I don't know, but it's not going away. Switch hitters are here to stay. It's, no, it's going away. It's more of a specialization game these days, Adam. Come on. Maybe. It's going away. We got some emails. Oh, you want to talk about that?

Yes. Okay. I want to chime in with one thing because it was mostly July that was just terrible for Josh Bell. Final 37 games, which is August and September. He had a 900 OPS, basically. Hit about 260. Clearly wasn't first half, Josh Bell, but was a good hitter again. And, you know, that was with the 245 BAPB.

So he already may have started to adjust. Okay. Hope so. Good stuff. Thank you to sI.com. Logan from Wisconsin has our first email at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. I play in a 12-team points league with five outfielders. Help me with my keepers.

After speaking with other owners, a lot of top pitchers are going to be kept, and I'm already keeping Christian Yellich. So give me three more in a points league between Rendon, Blackman, Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbyn, and Mike Clevenger.

Round does not matter. Pick three. Rendon, Blackman, Harper, Corbyn, Clevenger. I think you keep Rendon? I think you keep... Corbin and Clevenger. Okay. Clevenger over Corbin, but you know.

From Nick, 12-team points Keeper League. The keeper length is dependent on how late the player was drafted. And Waver Wire pickups get one year to be kept. So pick six of them. Ooh, here we go. Six. Four years for Chris Paddock, yes. Three years for Tatis. Three years for Pete Alonzo.

Two years for Eloy. one year for Glaber Torres, one year for Reamuto, one year for Burrios, one year for Soroka, one year for Castellanos, one year for Kyle Hendricks. Okay, so some of these clearly

didn't need to be included. Yeah. But, well, six is a high never. Let's see how far we get. Obviously, Paddock for four years, obviously, more obviously, Tatis for three years, Alonzo for three years.

Jimenez for three years. Two years. Two years. And the last two one-year guys, I'm going to say Glaber Torres and J.T. Rio Muto. You only have one pitcher. You have Chris Paddock. Would you like to maybe go with Barrios or Soroka? No. No, I wouldn't. I am not... Given the caliber of player I'd be passing up, which is, for me, the number three-second

baseman and the number one catcher. or the number two catcher. I have Sanchez and we're removed to it, but it's close. I don't think Barrios or Soroka is enough of a slam dunk pitcher to justify passing them up. Though obviously, I would be looking to

gobble up pitching early in the draft. This is from Matt. Hey, buddy palin guy. First, I really enjoy the show with Ellen Adair. You should have her on as often as she'll agree to it. Okay. We enjoyed it too. We will definitely have her back on.

Keep one in a 10-team points league. Flaherty for three years at $28,33, and $38. Or Woodruff, Lynn, or Luke Weaver, Luke Weaver for three years, again, for $6, $11, and $16. So I'm guessing that's Flaherty versus Woodruff, if you're picking one of those. Right, so it's Flaherty at 28, 33, and 38 for the next three years,

or it's Woodruff at $6,11, and 16 for the next three years. years and Matt says as I'm writing it I feel dumb it's obviously Woodruff due to Flaherty's price the moral of the story is Ellen Adair is awesome she is awesome I don't know that this is so obvious though no it's not obvious I am and I I I recently did a top 50 keepers based on ADP from the year before so the idea was it wasn't just how good the player is but what the cost is to keep him and I found myself gravitating more toward the the known studs for the higher dollar amount than the

questionable studs at a bigger discount. And I think Woodruff is definitely more questionable than Flaherty, who I have in the top 10 at starting pitcher. And a top 10 starting pitcher in a small points league, 10 teams, is going to go for a huge price. I have no doubt about that. He might go for $40 or more. Um, so I kind of talked to myself into Flaherty, I think, there.

So it's really close for me. Woodruff does seem like a bigger discount. And I mostly believe in him, but I'm not as sold on his greatness as Flaherty's. From no name, dear, itchy, scratchy and poochie. By the way, Scott, my, uh, my friend got a Bort keychain from Universal Studios. Bort. Yeah. Yeah. Remember that episode from Hitching and Scratchy?

Yeah. I remember. I was trying to act on the scene, but I don't really remember the lines. Come along, board. So again, I probably shouldn't have brought it up. Come along, Bort. Are you talking to me? No, my son is also named Bort.

And then later, we're out of Bort license plates. So the gift shop, we're out of Bort license. Oh, yeah. They say that over the Intercom. Yeah. Yeah. I see, I knew you'd come up with it. Oh, yeah, I got you got you.

I got you. Have we talked about how pissed off I am at Disney Plus for stealing the Simpsons from FX now? I can't watch the Simpsons anymore. Well, yeah. We haven't, no. Well, we have now. I'm in a keeper league. Would you rather hold on to Pueig, Hanager, or Gavin Lux?

Same price. Pueg, Hanneger, Gavin Lux. I would rather hold on to Gavin Lux. Gavin Lux. I may rank Pueg a little ahead of him in redraft leagues, but obviously Lux, the long-term, the potential long-term impact there puts them over the top. We don't know where Pug's going to. a play yet either. I assume

he's going to be an everyday player wherever he goes, but he's always been there's always a mercurial situation there. Yes. Mercurial. Finally, Joe in Syracuse. Yeah, Mercurial. That's, yeah. Seych. 12 teams, oh, he says,

hey, Joe and Syracuse says, hey, Anthony, Deontay, and Manuel. I had it. You're Googling? Yeah, I'm Googling. I'm Googling. Oh, that's like flighty. Subjects is sudden or unpredictable. changes of mood or mind. Yeah, his playing time is Mercurial.

That works. Oh, his playing time is Mercurial. I thought you were saying he's Mercurial. I don't know that I would characterize his playing time as Mercurial. I've never heard that. That's almost like personification. The whole Pueg. The whole Pueg situation is mercurial.

The Dodgers did weird things with his playing time. They'd hit him eighth sometimes. and... Yeah, I know. It's weird. I'm going with it. Anthony Deontay-Emmanuel appear to be UFC fighters.

12-team points league, or maybe they're boxers, I don't know. I'm in a 12-team points league. I can keep three vets, two rookies, and a minor leaguer. So pick three of these veterans.

Rao-Muto, Chris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Garrett Cole, Corbin, Kershaw, Cindergard. Okay.

Three veterans. I am going with Cole. Yes. Duh. I'm going with Patrick Corbyn. Right. And... Jay Zeebriotto.

Very good. Right? No, points league I'm going with Rizzo. Okay. The strikeout to walks there. Really set them apart in that format. Okay. Rookie choices.

Pick two of these. Kest and Hira. Jordan or Jorden Alvarez. Brian Reynolds. Aristides Aquino. Oh, come on. Two of them, it's going to be Alvarez and Yerha. Yeah, that's an easy one.

And one minor leaguer, don't have to keep one. You can keep one for a 13th round pick if you choose. And it's Dustin May. Would you keep Dustin May for a 13th round pick? We don't know if this discount applies long term, do we? I'm going to assume it doesn't, and I'm going to say no. Also, I'm wondering the 13th round pick is that like after the five keepers? So it's really kind of like an 18th round pick?

Then you probably want to do it. That would change it. Yeah. Okay. All right. Thanks, Joe. Thanks, everybody for the emails. Thanks, Scott White.

Good to have you back. Yeah. Good to be back. And can you please? One podcast, right? How many, you act like I've been. Well, you missed two weeks. I think we only did one show.

But can you please go see Uncut Gems so I can talk about it with someone. It's only, I can't tell you how many Facebook ads I've seen for uncut gyms over the past six months. It's good. I feel like when is this movie coming out? It's out. It's out. It's out there, baby. KG.

KG. KG. I've working on the accent. Yeah, you'll see. All right. Later, everybody. Talk to you next week on fantasy baseball team.