Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/09 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Rankings Disputes!

Episode Date: January 9, 2018

Let's dig into our rankings as Scott and Heath square off, but first we talk about some "make or break" players. Will Bryce Harper (6:40), Cody Bellinger (10:25), Alex Bregman (13:16) and Robinson Cano (23:00) make or break your team based on where they were drafted in our recent Roto draft? ... Debating Evan Gattis (27:15), Zack Cozart (32:55) and Jose Berrios (38:20). Does Gattis have #1 Catcher potential? Was Cozart's 2017 season a total fluke? ... Best way to do FAAB in your league (44:15) and Ronald Acuna's value in a keeper league (53:25) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We're going to fight today. We're going to debate a lot of stuff, and it's going to be awesome. Welcome to the show. Fantasy Baseball time here. Email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Half the show is going to be debates. Half the show, maybe a little bit less, is going to be Mailbag. We'll get to your questions.

I'm Adam Azor. We've got Chris Towers in today. Hello, Chris. Hi. Oh, Chris. Every time. What's up, Adam? Not much.

Not much. Steve Cummings. But welcome back. How was your vacation? I cannot tell you how happy I am to be here. It feels like it's been forever since I've been on a fantasy baseball podcast. And just to be honest, I think I can speak freely here. The host of the fantasy football podcast is such a jerk. It's nice to be here with you guys.

I'm really looking forward to it. It is such a different tone hosting the two different podcasts. So yes, no, I will not be a jerk today, although I am making you all fight about ranking. And Scott, I did request that somebody go check on you last night. Nobody did. Nobody did. No, no. I had no visitors.

No consolation at my doorstep. Scott went to Georgia. He's a bulldog. We podcasted a day after the Super Bowl, I believe, last year. And it was like I've never heard you in a state like that. You seem to be okay right now. Well, I've been conditioned, Adam I guess.

Like, there is no lower point as a sports fan than last year's Super Bowl. So this, I mean. So Scott's team loses a bowl game and everyone's worried about him. But when FIU loses the bad boy mowers Gasparilla Bowl, because their quarterback got hurt four plays into the game, nary a peep from my supposed friends. I see how it is. Yeah, I just, I don't know.

I don't really know. that your team Scott lost Scott, but it was a consolation game. That's true. We'd already determine the national champion. Yeah, it's UCF, clearly. Right.

Heath is all about this UCF thing. Scott, I'm sorry. That was, I mean, obviously I was rooting against Alabama. I don't really have anything against them, but I'm tired of seeing them win.

Yeah, you know, like, it's, it's, it's okay. It's better this way. You know,

you get thinking, like, maybe, like, maybe, maybe this is going to happen and it's like, what do I do? Why would something good ever happen?

Like, right. It's just, you know, I'm comfortable in this space of sports fandom where often good, never the best. And you know what? Whatever. All right, we'll wrap it up. I just want to know what, like, what did you do? What was your reaction? Well, I had to subduced my reaction a little.

Like, my biggest reactions, my biggest reactions were. when Alabama missed the field goal at the end of regulation. And, you know, I was already defeated at that point. So it was like, he missed it. He missed it. But, you know, I was kind of having to keep the volume down because a baby who never sleeps was actually sleeping in the next room. Okay. So there was that.

And then right before the final play, Georgia got the sack, like a 15-yard loss on the sack, putting them out of field call range. It's like, all they have to do is stop them three times and this is over. This could actually have it. Oh, oh, wait, never mind. Like it was like it went from this extreme high to, oh, it's over. Just like that. Yeah, it was quick. Yeah.

So did you curse at all? Did you like uttering profanity? No, I mean. That doesn't curse. Yeah, I know. But if anything would make someone curse, it would be that play. All right. No.

Maybe next time. Like, it was just like, you know, just let them make the, like, just make the field goal then, you know? Like, I was already prepared for it then. You feel like when they missed the field goal, it's like, okay, maybe this is faded to happen. Like, maybe, I don't know. Well, look, I'm glad you're in. There's no chance I would have been at work the next day if that had happened. I wouldn't worry about that.

Hey, come on. We're making progress. We're in the Orange Bowl. people actually did watch our bowl game. So just one quick news item. The Blue Jays acquired Yon Hervis Salarte from the Padres. He had a pretty good 2016 season. He had an 808 OPS in 109 games.

He was better on the road. And it goes to a better park now. But coming off a bad season, Solarte had a 730 OPS, about at 255. 18 home runs in 128 games, not terrible. What is the value of Yon-Hervis Solarte with the Blue Jays now? I feel like it could go up just because of lineup support and venue change, but there is possibly a playing time crunch there that didn't exist in San Diego. Devin Travis is hurt all the time, so it's hard to know exactly how much he's going to interfere with Solarte's playing time. Either one of them could potentially play some left field because right now the Blue Jays only have Steve Pierce slotted there.

Salarte can play pretty much anywhere. They played 24 games at shortstop last year, 18 at third base, or 22 at third base, 79 at second. They have too many players right now. I feel like the Josh Donaldson trade is coming. No. They've got too many players. As injury prone is too low and Travis are of the middle, but like they needed a player like this. I don't think the Donaldson's trade's coming.

I could be wrong, but I feel like this was less of a, you know, a gentle transition to a lesser player at the position than just we are still trying to compete here. So let's make our team better. So you think Solarte is a utility player until someone gets hurt? I mean, he's a super utility player. He's an everyday player who will play a lot of places. So does that make Solarte draftable in a middle infield league? He already was.

Okay. This hurts, I think, for now, unless the trade happens. in my opinion. All right. All right, well, enough about him. So let's do some make or break. I'm going to give you some players and where they went in the roto draft

that we did a few weeks ago, and you tell me if they're more likely to make or break your team. But here's the twist. So I'm devilish today. Okay, so is that a word? Devlish? Yes.

Okay, good. That's me. One of you is going to have to take the make side, and one of you is going to have to take the break side. No matter what you actually believe. Mental exercise.

Yeah. Now the third person. You're going to give Scott a headache. You know, I used to write my college papers. I would take the side that I would always take the side that I didn't feel like many people were going to take. I would write other people's papers for money. Oh, goodness. Is that true?

Yeah. Good for you. He's academically dishonest. I would. I would make fun of you for that, except I wrote someone's paper to impress a girl one time. And I may have worked, I'm not sure. So, all right, so one of you has to take the make side, one the break side, and the other can decide who made the better argument. And then we can all talk about how we really feel.

Bryce Harper, seventh overall. Bryce Harper was the number 18 outfielder in points, number 13 in Roto last year. The year before that, he was number six in points. Number 16 in Roto. The year before that, he was number one in points in Roto. So Bryce Harper, make or break at number seven overall. Heath, make the case for Harper as a make player, making your roster. He could be the best player in fantasy this year.

If he just stays healthy, if everything goes right, he is the best hitter in baseball. He may lead baseball in home runs. He may lead baseball in just about every category except for stolen bases. Okay, Scott, break. He's going to break your team. Make the argument. To see what happened in 2016, Adam? He had this neck, back, thing going on, shoulder thing, all sorts of things that he was trying to play through, and it was a disaster.

And then, you know, what was it 2014? He couldn't even play through that injury. There have been, he is a player who plays with an all-out style that invites injuries, and playing through those injuries doesn't always seem to be a good thing for him. you know he's as good as trout at his best i think but he uh he has a lot more downside attached to him all right that's brice harper seventh overall chris towers who made the better case judge towers uh scott's heart wasn't in it and you can tell that from the beginning yeah i just look how do you make the case against bryce harper without bringing up the fact that he played 111 games last season yes scott you really like that bury the lead you mentioned

the injuries, but this is a guy who has played 150 games exactly one time in his career. He played 147 in 2016 and wasn't that good. He's played less than 123 out of his six seasons. He's injury prone. He can't stay healthy. Now, that is essentially a case you made, but the case for him over the last three seasons, he's hit 296, and his 162 game pace is 38 homers, 118 runs, 108 RBI, 13 stolen baseball.

cases. Bryce Harper and number seven might be a discount. So do we all think at the end of the day that Bryce Harper is more likely to make your team than break your team at number seven overall? Yes. Yes. I think Chris just argued with himself, though. Yeah, he kind of did. That was something to behold.

He felt left out. He didn't have anybody to argue with. He didn't not argue. All right, the next guy, we're going to let Scott make the case for Cody Bellinger with a third pick of round three, 26th overall in this Roto League. Cody Bellinger, 26 overall. Scott, you're going to make the case for Bellinger. Chris, you're going to make the case against,

and then the Honorable Judge Heath Cummings will decide. This is your boy, Scott, Cody Bellinger. Yeah, I don't know why it's specifically my boy. I mean, I feel like the numbers kind of speak for themselves, and more to the point, the batted ball tendencies back them up. He has the perfect combination of fly ball tendons. tendencies, hard hit tendencies, pull tendencies. He is going to be a monster power hitter for a long time to come.

And unlike, you know, the rookie from the other league, Aaron Judge, Bellinger made some improvements with the strikeouts over the course of the season. It wasn't nearly as bad in the end. So you're getting him relative to judge much later. And, you know, 3.5.8 points per game for Bellinger last year. 3.4 for Jose Abraeu. I don't think you're taking Abraeu much later than the third point. pick of round three either. Chris Towers, he's going to break your team. Tell me why, Cody Bellinger.

Because in the third, with the third pick of the third round, you mentioned Jose Breyer. That's a really good example of someone who's unbelievably safe. He may not have huge upside, but if you compare him to Anthony Rizzo over the last five seasons, he's basically been the same guy. And Anthony Rizzo goes two rounds ahead of him. Cody Bellinger, look, he had a really nice rookie season. Are we sure he can hit lefties? He did a good job of it last season, but he's a young left-handed power hitter who strikes out a lot.

There's a chance that that strikeout rate buries him. No. He's going to make sense. He's reaching. You could tell who doesn't actually believe what they're saying. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, but no, he did struggle against, no, he didn't struggle with this lefties. he was great against lesseys. I'm sorry.

It's one season. Yeah, that's the case against. And sophomore slums happen. Sophomore slump. Exactly. Exactly. It's a just. Yeah.

Right. It's one season. The minor league track record doesn't back this up. The scouting reports do, but he wasn't a great hitter in the minors. He was just a pretty good one. There's a chance he just had a really good season. Like, there's a chance we just saw the best season of Cody Belanger's life. What do we think about it?

What we've said of Aaron Judge? 26th overall, which is like six. six spots ahead of where a Brayu went in this draft. More likely to make or break at 26 overall Bellinger. I think you're probably paying for the ceiling at first base there. I would agree with that. That's the argument you should have made. You would have won.

All right. Next up, Heath will be against Alex Breggman with the 29th overall pick. And Chris will be making the case for Alex Breggman to make your team. Six pick of round 3, 29th overall. Alex Breggman, go, Chris. I'm making the case that he will make your team. Okay, we're talking about, look, Cody Ballinger goes in the 26th round. We're talking about paying for production, but also paying for upside with Cody Ballinger.

Wait, what? 26 overall, not 26th round. 26th overall. You are fired. Alex Bergman's 29th overall. Yes. You're talking about paying for upside. Alex Breggman's got a ton of upside.

He had a bad season last year and finished with 19 homers, 71 RBS. 88 runs scored 17 steals. That offense might be even better next season with all the young guys still developing. And we saw how good Alex Bregman was in the second half of the season. He's a shortstop. We know how hard it is to find elite production at that position. There's 3025 upside with Alex Bregman if everything clicks this season. You don't want to pay for the Jose Obrayu types.

You know what you're going to get from them. and it's pretty good. You want to pay for the guys who have a chance to break into that elite top five, and Alex Bragman has that potential. Okay, yeah, he was the number three shortstop in points, number four in Roto. So Heath, why would Alex Bregman break your team if you took him 29th overall? Well, it's going to be really tough when halfway through June you're in last, in average, and struggling in other categories because your shortstop's killing you,

and you're trying to find somebody else see if you could start a middle infielder over him. He's just making up a scenario. Why? Because he repeats what he did at the start of 2016 or 17, and what he did when he first came up to the majors in 2016. He's a chronically slow starter that's going to put you in a hole in Roto that you can't dig out of. He also didn't finish very well last season.

He was bad. In the postseason, yeah. I don't know if I count that. So is balanced. Nobody made that argument. I like Alex Bregman a lot. The third round? That's the thing.

Really? 29th overall is crazy for Alex Brickman. Hey, you're the worst lawyer ever, Chris. You're supposed to be backing him up. All right, Scott. You know what? This is in Roto League. Yeah.

I actually have Bellinger. Oh, sorry, I'm looking at last year's ring. It'll take a second to pick up. I think Chris won the argument. And I just wanted to point this out for Bellinger. He is eligible at third base and shortstop. My top shortstop, Breggman.

Yes, Breggman. Sorry. My top shortstop is Carlos Correa, who averreds 3.8 fantasy points per game last year. My top third baseman is Nolan Aronado, who averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game last year. Alex Breggman averaged 3.7 fantasy points per game. What happened on July 4th? It's Independence Day, Chris. When it started.

Fireworks. Yeah, he also maybe, go ahead. And I'm, I'm going to take the other side now because I don't believe in Alex Breggman. Yeah, Chris thinks that way the argument. In the 20, I just, I think again, you're paying for sealing here. And this is what happens in these early roto. People in these early mock drafts, people plant their flag. I want to be the Alex Breggman guy.

So I'm going to go reach for him at a place where nobody else is going to get him. We haven't seen elite production from Alex Breggman. Well, I think we've seen a good. We've seen a good stretch. We've heard of a shortstop. Seasons are more predictive than half season. Yes, but he's also a 23-year-old. Sure, you can say a young player is moving forward,

except that he got to the postseason and stunk. Do you like him better than Lendor? Do I like him better than who? Lendor? No. Hold on. Lendor's proven elite. I mean, it's...

But there is no elite hitter you can draft in the third round. There is no elite hitters you can draft in the third rounds. Like, the elite hitters are gone. by the end of round two. So, you know, you're looking at potential elite hitters. And I don't know that I have them as high as, um, I'm trying to, I'm trying to, I'm trying to point out. I have so many spreadsheets here.

It's hard to find the right one. I also want to figure out exactly. You dismiss the postseason, which is 78 plate appearances, and that's fine, but that's 20% of what you're saying represents the Alex Bregman who's worth drafting in the third round. He faced the Dodgers, the Yankees, and who the Red Sox? I mean, he faced Chris Sale. He faced Severino Tanaka. Everybody's hitting home roads.

Okay, so here we go. I have Bregman 30-9th in Roto. So a little lower than this. It's more of a fourth-rounder. These are the hitters I have after him. And you guys just tell me which ones you want more. Understanding that Bregman is a shortstop and these other guys are not. These are the hitters I have right after him.

Tommy Fam, Reese Hoskins, D. Gordon, Nelson Cruz, Edwin, Incarnacion. Those are guys you have him ahead of? Yes. In Roto, I'd rather have D. Gordon. Yes. I'd rather have Nelson Cruz. But he's D.H.

I'd probably rather have Edwin and Carnaccio. I'd rather pay for guys who I know can do it for a full season. Who you know have done it in the past, but they're both on the wrong side of 35. Sure, but. And like Alex Brighman, you're betting on. Bregman hasn't even approached his prime yet. Sure, but you're betting on one half season where he was roughly as good as guys. I'm betting on a very talented player who had a very good season and showed signs of becoming

great in the second half. Yeah, I just, I like. as a rule, second half is overrated. This is where... They have to get better at some point. This is where draft position changes my opinion, because I have recommended by number five shortstop. I think he's going to be very good.

I think he would be an excellent breakout candidate. But you can't call him a breakout candidate if he's a six-picking a third round. How is your number five shortstop, not a top 40 player? 29th overall was where the discussion was. I know, but you guys, I was, you guys were just now, were taking acceptance to my third. 39 ranking. I didn't say anything about that. Okay, you said you'd rather have some of the players behind you.

Yes, that's true. He said you should have had him 40th. I have Regman 51st. I think that's more reasonable. Yeah, I don't know if you're getting him there. Lots of spots difference. Well, it's 22 spots. 29th might feel a little bit early, but, you know, he also has 20 steel potential.

I think you even said he has like 25 steel potential when you were pretending to like him at that spot, Chris. So that can't be completely overlooked here. He's like Abreu and Carnacio, and these guys are obviously not going to do that. Sure, but he also, over, you know, his 162 game pays for his career 15 steals. He stole 19 bases in, or he stole 20 bases and 146 games in the minors. It's easier to steal bases in the minors. Yeah. Let me just ask you this, Chris.

Do you feel like Alex Bregman at age 23, we've already seen the best version of Bregman we're going to see? No. No. So if you're acknowledging he's going to get better, why is it not logical for him to get better the year after he showed? But that doesn't mean that the second half. The second, look, historically, if you split seasons up into halves, they are less predictive of the future season than the previous season as a whole. So if you're, now look, young players do trend upwards. But this wasn't a trending upwards.

This was him being a disaster and then him turning. into a superstar. That's not a trend. That's just kind of random. He's probably a low 800s OPS bat right now with the ability to improve moving forward. That doesn't mean he's definitely going to improve.

Brugnet O'Dore did not improve. Sorry. He had an 858 OPS from May 1st on. So even if you just take away one month, we're not even talking second half. We're talking five months of 858 OPS. Yeah. So, I mean, that's... What happened on April 30th? Chris, he had a bad month.

I mean, this stuff happens all the time. He had a bad month at the end, too, though. Terrible. Are you talking about the playoffs? You're talking about it all. Again, I don't think you can count the playoffs because... I feel like we do this really, really randomly. No, I remember last season, it's not random.

It's not random. An argument in favor of Kyle Schwaber was, look how awesome he was in the playoffs. He barely played last year, and he came back and he was really good in the playoffs. He had a terrible season. But I don't like... Again, if he gets going to face that... That's all he played last. That's all we had to go on for Schwerver last year.

Well, no, but we had the previous season where he was just okay. And not many of us on this podcast were arguing for Kyle Schwerver last year. Right, but I'm talking about the fantasy community as a whole. I was. Like, we distribute these arguments randomly. Of course we do. When they fit us. I don't think it's that random, though.

It's like he had a terrible month. And after that, he had an 858 OPS for the whole season. And if you look at the entire season, he was the number three shortstop in points and number four in Roto. But he wasn't the number 29 player. Being a top four shortstop and stealing 17 bases in Roto isn't that far off from being a top 30 player. I think it's pretty far off. I don't think positions matter that much. All right.

So that's Alex Bregman. Let's do one more of these. I had six. We'll do four, and then we'll go to some rankings debates, and then we'll finish with some emails. Should we do Cindergarde, Canoe or Cineau? Cindergarde. No, that's do Cineau or Cineau since we talked about Cindergard last week. All right.

Let's do Canoe. Okay, Cano. Robbie Cano. So wait, who's the defense attorney? That would be Heath. Scott is prosecuting. Robinson Cano is the eighth pick of round five. 56th overall.

Cano is coming off a down season where he was the number eight second basement in points, number 11 in Roto. The year before that, he was top four at second base with 39 home runs. 2017, he had 23 home runs and 280. So Heath, make the case that Robinson Canoe is going to make your team with the 56. sixth overall pick. Scott will make the case that Kanoe will break your team. Break yourself. Go ahead, Heath. You know, we talk a lot about how we're going to move Alex Bregman up because he's shortstop eligible. Second base is pretty awful as well. In fact, at the top second base may actually be worse than shortstop is.

And Kanoe, you just said it, his down year was the number eight second baseman and fantasy. the guy is so remarkable in terms of getting to that 650, 680 plate appearance mark each and every year. You've got that stability. And I do expect the power numbers to come back just a little bit. He's going to be in a great lineup. Should have 100 RBI. The Babbitt will bounce back just a little bit as well. Okay, that's pretty good.

The defense rests. Scott, go ahead. Well, I actually do have them 72nd, so much. lower than he went in this draft so these these are my legitimate thoughts and we you referred to 2017 as a down season for him i think 2016 was an upseason for him you look at his four years in seattle the 23 home runs he hit last year was the second highest total in that four years span so i don't know what happened to him in 2016 but that's the outlier that's that's not how we should view cano that that's not the cano norm going forward and considering he's now on the wrong side of 35 i think it's more

likely to get worse than better from here. So I don't think, yes, I agree second base is thin at the top. I don't think Kano fits at the top anymore. Judge Towers? I think Scott's correct here. I think Scott made the more persuasive argument. I don't think Heath's heart was in it. And I just think 2016 is absolutely the outlier for Robbie Kanoe over the last four seasons.

He's been pretty good, but not great. All right. So does anybody think that 56th overall middle of round five in a 12-team league is okay for Robinson Canoe? I think it's too early. It's too early. Yep. Okay. I think if I'm going to, you know, be on Heath's defense team and make the case for him.

I'm not even on my team. If he – I will take over. If he can stay healthy, I do think he can play well. But apparently Scott Service said he was playing hurt the second half of the season, And that always seems to be the case with Kano now, and he's 35 years old. But, I mean, if you get a season where he actually is healthy, pre-all-Star break, he had an 813 OPS. It's not bad. 17 home runs before the All-Star break.

Drop down to 764 OPS after that. That would be my only case there. I'd be more likely to stump for him in a points lead, I think. Yeah, that makes sense, too. Let me see the second baseman that went after him. Is Gene Seguera second base eligible? No, right? Nope.

No. Then I think we have a... Oh, Whitmerfield went around later than him. I do have Maryfield lower than Canoe. Who do you have ahead of Canoe? I have Altuve, Jose Ramirez, sorry, let me say that again. Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy,

Jonathan Scope. Those are the five I have ahead of Canoe. See, I only have four ahead of them, and the scope not being one of them. So that's why, like, at 56 overall, Maybe that's too high, but he was probably the fifth second baseman taken. And that's probably right. All righty.

So that's make or break. Now we'll do a segment that's very, very similar. Only these guys will not have to pretend to take stands. It's a rankings debate. So Chris, you get to sort of be the arbitrator again. And we'll talk about some differences in Scott and Heath's rankings. Now, what I have on my paper here may not actually be correct, so you can correct me if I'm wrong. So Heath has Evan Gattis third overall at catcher.

Scott has him 10th. Is that true, Scott? I have him sixth. In a points league. Yes. Okay. So third for Heath is still very high. Who are the catchers that you have ahead of Gattis that Heath does it?

Okay. So is this in a points league we're specified? Yes. Let me make sure I have those rankings open. Okay. So, oh, you know what? actually have Gaddis 7th. Oh, good.

More interesting. All right. Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey, Wilson Contreras. I assume just Sanchez and Posey are head of Getschese. Sanchez and Posey's. The only two I have Posey and Sanchez, I should say. Wilson Contreras, Salvador Perez, J.T. Riumuto, and even Yadir Malina. I have ahead of Gattis.

And a point. Diary Malina. All right. Yep. All right, Heath. Third overall. Here's the thing. And I understand the idea of ranking Gattis

much lower in a points league because his playing time has been so sporadic over his career. I don't expect that to be an issue this year. The Astros are going to make Evan Gaddis, their full-time DH. They don't really even want him catching very much. I expect him to be more of an emergency third catcher. That doesn't mean he plays every single day, but I expect him to get closer to his 2015 playing time than what we've seen each of the past

two seasons. His injury risk is lower, not having to play in the field. And Gaddis, when he plays a full season, is about as good is it gets at catcher. There's a chance that he's the number one catcher this year. I really don't disagree. In 2015, he was the number two catcher. He hit 27 homers, drove in 88, runs that season, and he actually has catcher eligibility this season, which he actually did not in 2015. Actually, he did have it in 2015, looking back. He was catcher eligible then, so legitimately. Did he go into the season? Yeah. Was it 2016? He didn't?

2016 he didn't. But even in 2016, he gained it during the season. And he finished top five. He was fifth and points, fourth and roto, Evan Gattis in 2016. Last year wasn't a great year. He batted 263 with 12 home runs in 300 at bats. If you had given him 400 at bats, then he would have been the number seven cash room points leagues. And 400 of bats is a lot lower than what he's probably going to get. That would have ranked just 10th at the position. So Scott, you only have got his seventh. You got old man, Yadier, Molina. ahead of him, along with Contreras.

The only one I really take exception to he's ranking behind Gattis is Wilson Contreras, who, you know, I think proved himself to be borderline elite, if not for some injuries last year. But Gattis, like, in an ideal world, he does play every day for the Astros. I don't think he's actually going to be there everyday DH. I was looking at an article on the Houston Chronicle. This is from mid-December, where A.J. Hinch was kind of laying out his plan for how they're going to approach the DH spot. And the way he puts it in here is, yes, Gattis will be the primary DH.

That's primarily where he'll be in the lineup. But so that they can take advantage of Marwin Gonzalez's versatility, they're not just going to fix him in left field. They're going to move him around the diamond and use the DH spot to give their fielders. days off from the field. So that sounds like a lot of time off for Gattis. And yes, they don't want him catching that much. They'll probably have a true backup on the roster. And Gattis will be more like a third catch-up.

I'm sure he'll catch some. But I don't know that the playing time is going to be vastly improved for him. So the counterpoint to that would be they had all those guys. They had Evan Gattis last year. And Carlos Beltran still got 509 played appearances. If Evan Gattis gets 5009 played appearances. plate appearances, he's probably a top five. I don't think, is it as high back in 2015, is that right?

I don't think he gets to that mark. I think the 509 is probably more realistic. I love Contreras. I think Contreras is better than Evan Gattis. He has a higher injury risk playing catcher. I worry that he's not going to get as many played appearances as Evan Gattis this year. All right, Chris, who's going to be? Wilson Contreras or Evan Gattis?

I am higher on Evan Gattis. than Scott is. We had this conversation in the office the other day, I think. Oh, well, I wasn't there. Would you take him over Wilson Contreras specifically? I'd rather have Wilson Contreras. Well, you then, okay, so you guys didn't really... But I still win, the argument, because he has him fourth.

And by the way, I should point out, I do have Gaddis fifth in Roto. Okay. As opposed to seventh. I have, I have them ahead of Rheumuto and Molina in that format. All right. This debate has gotten a little bit less sexy as it has gone on. The real rankings debate, we've already done this one. a few months ago is Heath having Buster Posey over Gary Sanchez, which must come down to

just pure Yankees hate. I think that is the only... It's crazy. Sanchez has to make up a lot of points in terms of walks and strikeouts. He loses like 180 points just in those two categories. Okay. Was he better in points per game last year, Scott? Who?

I'm sorry. Was Gary Sanchez better than Posey? Oh, yeah. Gary Sanchez was 3.38 points. per game, Posey was 2.89. Big difference. Well, if we just wanted to rank everything we missed on last year, we wouldn't have jobs.

He managed to make up for those walks and strikeouts, is what you're saying. Yeah. Yes. All right, so, Scott, do you, yes or no? Do you have Zach Cozart's seventh at shortstop? Not anymore. Now he's more like 10th or 11th. I'm not sure exactly because

I have amended it as I've done a top 600 and without going back and adjusting the position by position. So it's like 10th or 11th for Kozom. That's good enough. So 10th or 11th, 10th and a half for Zach Kozart, who will now be the third baseman for the Angels. And Heath has him 16th. So I'll give the first word to Scott here, since you're still higher on Zach Kozart coming off a great, great season.

297, 24 home runs in only 122 games. You're higher on Kozart than Heath is. Yeah, and I wanted to have him seventh. Me moving him down was one of those situations for just from doing a couple mock drafts. It is abundantly clear to me. There's no way you have to draft him that high. But I think he's a better hitter than Zander Bogart's. And even though some of what he did last year was kind of out of nowhere, I mean, there was a steady power.

It's not kind of out of nowhere. He's a 716 career OPS. His strikeout rate has always been low. The walks and the power took a step forward last year, but in a way that... Like, it's not like you can look at the bad at ball tendencies and say, okay, he was obviously faking it here. And I know we kind of had dealt with that. We had that same situation with Aledmus Diaz last year, and he fell flat on his face. But I feel like, A, you're not going to have to pay nearly as much for Cozart.

So I'm happy taking that gamble on him. And B, that's still a situation I'm going to bet on nine times out of ten, just because it burned us with Diaz last year. So I feel comfortable with Cozart as my starting shortstop. And even ranking him 10th or 11th, that probably means like a 15th round pick. Yeah, I've got him 16th, and I would like to find some other short stops that I could put ahead of him. I don't want him to be my starting middle infielder in a roto league. Coming into last year, he had a 672 career OPS. That's an OPS plus of 82.

he was never a good offensive player he would have a month or two here or there he's 32 years old he just had his career year and he's going from cincinnati which is a great hitters park to los angeles which is a bad or anaheim or orange county or wherever their los angeles of anaheim of orange county right um it's which is a big downgrade yes and i'm afraid and i haven't seen their lineup yet But where do we think Zach Kozart's going to hit in this lineup with all of these good hitters? I don't know. And if that's not all enough, he's not even played 147 games since 2014. Okay. His home road splits just looking at them now. Yeah, I mean, a better average at home.

Better average. The power is not that much different. Actually, more power on, well, more home runs on the road. All right. So that, the thing about that is if you hit in a better hitters park and you don't seem to, and your numbers in that hitters park aren't substantially better, you still benefit from that hitter's park. So whether your numbers are better or not,

he's going from a park that was the best in baseball for right-handed home runs to one that ranked 24th in park factors for right-handed home runs. I'll split the difference. I don't think he's nearly as good as he was last year. I don't think there's any real reason to think he will be. The hard hit rate was pretty much identical to the year before. His exit velocity was actually only 86 miles an hour, which is below average. He benefited a lot from the park he played in.

However, the previous two seasons, he was more like a mid-700s OPS bat, and that can play at shortstop. I just think it's more as a middle infielder than as a starting shortstop. So I just want to point this part out because I don't think he'll be as good as last year either, but you need to know just how good he was last year. There were only three shortstops who averaged more fantasy points per game than Cozart last year, and they were Correa, Trey Turner, and Francisco Lendor. Cozart averaged more than Corey Seeger. He averaged more than Elvis Andrews.

He was a stud last year, and I don't think he'll be a stud again. if there's any legitimacy to what he did last year at that position, I'm taking the chance on him for as late as I can do it. I haven't actually gotten the opportunity yet because my infield spots have all been full by the time that point of the draft came. But it seems like a really good gamble to take from where he's going. I'm fine taking that gamble as a middle infielder. Which I think is what happened in the Roto draft we did.

I'll take a look at Tobin's team. but Tobin took Zach Kozart in the 14th round. And that will, no, he's a shortstop. His middle infielder is Scooter Jeanette. Okay, so but 14th round, so still, you know, getting pretty late there in a 12-team league. Let's do a couple pitchers here. We haven't talked about any pitchers yet today.

Heath has Jose Burrios 24th. Scott, you do not have Brrios even close to that, right? Or not that far from 24th. You have him 24th, Heath? Yep. I have him 38. Okay, so Brillo's 24th. fourth for Heath. Scott's got him 38th. Chris, why don't you take the first word on Burrios?

Is he closer to 24th or 38th? Well, we talked about this in the last podcast. And yeah, I'm just, I'm not sold on Jose Burrios being a very good pitcher. I think the stuff is just okay. The swinging strike rate is just average. Look, the stuff looks better than this. The slider. Yes. The stuff is really good. There are a lot of jiffs of this. this slider. And this is kind of an esoteric thing, and I'm not sure that you guys will agree, but I think his slider has too much break. It breaks too early. Does that make sense? Yeah. Like, I think he kind of telegraphs it. Like, pit batters can see. I think a better slider is one that breaks late and tight versus a big loop. Like the war than slider. Sure. Yeah.

Well, we'd like to protect his elbow, though. It's kind of a big loop. Just like the worthless slider. It doesn't have to be the war than slider. I guess it's technically a curveball. Either way, the point, it has a lot of lateral movement. And I just, I'm not totally impressed by it. And the numbers back that up. All right.

So Heath, Scott, get on in there. You're talking about a 24-year-old starting pitcher, who was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. who just looked like he kind of started to figure it out last year. And I'm completely throwing out what happened to him in those 14 starts in 2016. Maybe that's not fair. But he was absolutely dominant in AAA each of the last two years. And I would expect him to continue to get better.

I think the twins are going to be a pretty good team. They are the second best team in their division and maybe the best. So I think the wins opportunity will be there. Between AAA and the majors, he threw 185 innings last year, so I don't have any innings concerns at all. I just don't know what's not to like. You know, I think it sounds like if Chris had rankings this year, he might even rank them lower than I had Barrios 38th.

But to kind of reinforce what Chris was saying, Berrios came out of the minors last year and looked like a world beater. he had like an eight-star stretch 267 ERA and then it seemed like the league kind of adjusted to him because over the last three months ERA over four and more concerning to me is and this might have to do with the breaking ball even though Berrios had a respectable strikeout rate

over eight per nine his swinging strike rate was a below average rate like it doesn't seem like he was deceiving hitters even to the extent that he was striking them out so I don't really I see the minor league numbers. You know I like pedigree. I think Barrios could be a really good major league pitcher.

But I don't think he was a really good pitcher last year. He was fine. He showed some progress and looked like he could be fine. Yeah. I've baked in some upside into my ranking, I feel like, by ranking him 38th. But I don't think he was the 38th best pitcher from the time he arrived in the majors last year. I don't disagree that there is some upside, but he's been a lot more bad than good in the majors. I don't think we should just throw out 2016.

I don't think it's representative necessarily, but it is relevant. We're talking about 40% of his career starts. It's only like 30% of the innings because he was so bad. He also has some real platoon issues. And I think that's actually tied. The curveball has a decent swinging strike rate. His four-scene fastball actually is a pretty good swinging strike rate. His change-up basically never gets swinging strikes,

and he has a 1.57 strikeout to walk ratio against lefties. Now, you can develop that. That is something, the third pitch is something that you would think a young pitcher gets better with, but there's no guarantee of that. And I think rang him 24th is paying for the upside. I think the upside's a top 10 starting pitcher this year. Well, I did want to get to more, but... We have plenty of podcasts.

In fact, we have two a week going forward, and then eventually three a week, four, a week, five a week. During the season, we probably do about 18 episodes a week, at least three a day. And also we have a new DFS podcast called the Sportsline DFS podcast. Sportsline DFS podcast. It is brand new. We launched it yesterday, and you're going to hear me, Heath, Chris, and Mike McClure on that one, different combinations, different days. Just looking at the lineups now Went one and one

Did not win the Fandul 50-50 But I did win the Draft Kings 50-50 And yeah So we're going to give lineups But with the disclaimer That you need to be checking the news Before lineups lock Because things change

But anyway, if you play DFS You're going to enjoy the show It's fun We're going to have more fun than the other DFS podcast, let's just put it that way And hopefully we'll win you some money No, we will win you some money I can guarantee that

Because if we don't There's nothing you can do You can't sue me or anything. So there you go. I guarantee it. So we have more fantasy baseball podcasts coming up. Later this week, we'll have another one. We'll do more rankings, disputes.

For now, let's read some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. From Baldhead B in a Midwest city. Okay. Yeah. Interesting name. Interesting city. Dayton, Ohio, sure.

I have a feeling this guy doesn't want to be identified. This man or woman doesn't want to be identified. Baldhead, I would hope this is a man. He says, do you're crazy, lazy, busy, and wish. That is bone thugs in harmony. Sure is. I live near a place called Croton Harmon, and I always call it Bone Thugs and Croton Harmony. Isn't that funny?

Sure. I thought you lived in Sleepy Hollow. Near Crohnharmon, near Croton. Okay. Yeah, I do live in Sleepy Hall. All right, so he did a Fab League for football, and he loved it. Now he's wondering, his league is experiencing. expanding from 10 to 12 teams, head-to-head points.

Can you use FAB? What do you think of FAB in baseball? Is the season too long to manage it? If not, what is a good FAB dollar amount? Is there a best day for waivers if we do FAB? As you can see, I've been struggling with this. Any help would be greatly appreciated. P.S.

Coconut Thin Oreos with 2% milk is where it's at. I like all milk. Like real milk. All milk? Whole milk. I don't like milk. Whole milk. You have a cow? Who drinks Whole milk? I would like to get all of the milk.

I don't want 2% of the milk. I don't know why I want 98% water. We talked about milk a couple weeks ago, and Chris used to be a whole milker, but he's converted. Yeah, we're doing 2%. I'm just like milk's fine. I eat it in cereal and that's better. Pro tip, dad tip, if you would like to have 2%

milk, buy whole milk, pour half of a glass, fill the rest up with water and you've got 2% milk. I don't think that's how it works. I don't think so either. I'm not a milk. So anyway, Fab for baseball? Yeah, we do fab for baseball all the time. It doesn't have to be any different.

We actually usually do 100, just like in football, and people adjust. They learn to conserve their dollars appropriately. But I've seen people use 1,000. Yes, that's where it's at in my way. Yeah, I mean, it really doesn't matter. It literally doesn't. Like, I've had this discussion with people in my fantasy football league where they're like, we should increase the fab budget, or we should increase the fab budget,

or we should increase the auction budget to start the season. It doesn't matter. Like, everybody has the same amount of months. It does matter in baseball. It matters. There are 26 periods. Like, if you find yourself thinking, I don't want to invest a full dollar in this guy,

I wish I could do 50 cents, then you should probably increase your budget, I guess. But, like, I've never really found myself in that position personally. As far as for what day it is, I think a Sunday night run going into the lineup block Monday, I mean, assuming it's a weekly lineup league, I think that makes the most sense. And I do prefer that as opposed to the daily running of fab, because not many fab dollars are being spent if it's a daily run because you're trusting every league to check every day. Everybody in the league to check every day.

Definitely like the daily fab. Daily, yeah, yeah. And you need, if you're going to do... It's too many zero-dollar bids that way. Well, if you're going to, that's fine. So that then that's kind of like waivers. But if you're going to do $100 and daily fab, you need to allow $0 bids. Then it'll go.

quickly if you don't do that in your fab budget. Because you're going to make a lot of transactions, so you need zero-dollar bits. All right. Thank you, Bald Head B from Dayton, Ohio. This is Robert from Colorado Springs. Five-by-five roto league. It's categories, though. It's head-to-head categories.

Six keepers each season. He says, I have totes with keeping four starting pitchers. I don't know what that means. Is that a new slang I have totes with? I'm assuming it's totally, but the syntax is all right. Right, doesn't make sense. Is that too many pitchers to keep with hitting seemingly easier to get? So basically he's thinking about keeping four starting pitchers.

Here are his potential keepers. Scherzer, Bumgarner, Verlander, Keikle, Altuve, who he's definitely keeping Eben Encarnacion and Starling Marte. So I guess he needs to keep five out of six with Altuve being kept. So five out of... I would... No, I'm sorry. Yeah, five. I would assume you guys all have or both have Edwin and Coronacion ranked higher than Dallas Keikl?

Yes, yes. But it sounds like he's just tossing one of these players back, right? There's seven names here and he's keeping six. I think Starling Marte would be who I, well, you know what, five by five league? Maybe not. I really like the idea of you're not starting with your team. Starling Marte is not your second best hitter. but Altuva and Marte.

Yeah, a lot of steals and a lot of average. That's a lot of steals and a lot of average. That makes it so that you can kind of not worry. Like obviously, you still have to worry about batting average, but steals. Those two guys are going to steal 75 bases. You might, you know, that's a D. Gordon away from a third place finish in fantasy. This is something we're going to talk about a lot, probably during draft prep. The stolen bases and batting average are two of the hardest categories to fill, especially late.

If you try and get a batting average or steel specialist late, you're basically sacrificing every other category. So it's nice when you can get your steals filled with guys who help it other things like Altuvae and Marte do. So, okay. There's other. Who has to go here in a Roto League? Yeah. If it was points, maybe it'd be Marte, but Kikl and a Roto League is out.

Cool. Kevin and Columbus, in a 15 team, I'm in a 15 team league that distinguishes between right field, center field, and left field. My sense is that this does funky things to calculating replacement level slash depth at each position. Centerfield always seems deeper than the others, but I'd love to hear your thoughts. Centerfield is deeper than the others.

You're right. I would say don't overthink it. A guiding philosophy I'm going to have this season is to not worry too much about positional depth. I just, I don't think. But that's with no outfield definition. It matters at the top and it matters at the bottom, but I think in the middle, for most positions,

there's not that big of a difference. It's definitely not as bad as it used to be. And that actually kind of started last year. It's really easy to overpay for Corey Seeger this season. If you think that shortstop is that desperate to fill, and I just don't think you need to. Or Alex Breggman, I guess, in that case. But, I agree. I mean, that's definitely a good case to go best player available.

But it does change things when it's right field, center field, left field, instead of its outfield. Yeah, I want to say left field is weak. Center field is strong, left field is weak, right field's probably right in the middle, but I haven't extensively studied this. And there's probably a lot of multi-eligible guys. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, probably. Like you think Christian Yelich will probably get center field eligibility this season.

Marcel Ozuna might have both. So there's a lot of ways you can go with it. All right, Bill from Atlanta, would you trade Contreras, Schwerber, and Hayward? Contreras Schwerber for Hayward and Hayward, sorry, Contreras, Schwerber and Hayward, so all the Cubs, for Kirshaw, Wilson Ramos, and Michael Givens in a 2014-Team Keeper League. Deep league question. It'd have to be a league that deep for Hayward to have any trade value, so that was kind of the tip-off. Did you say Hayward or Schwerber?

Hayward. Oh, stop it. Contreras. I still think you've got to get Kershaw, right? Oh, yeah. I'm going to get Kershaw. Yeah, I mean, Kershaw puts you so far ahead of the competition in a 2014 league.

And I'm not sure. I expect Wilson Romo's to bounce back this year. Yeah, he'll be, he's probably the third best player in this deal. Kershaw, Contreras, and then Wilson Ramos, obviously a distant third, but the third best. This is from Garrett. Severino or Bumgarner. Who do you think will be better next year?

Would you trade Bum Garner for Severino in a Keeper League straight up? I don't see any point to make this trade. That's fair. A long-term keeper, like if I'm thinking multiple years down the road, I like it. But if I expect Bumgarner to be better this year, and if I'm trying to win this year, I'd rather have Bumgarner. You know, that's funny is my immediate reaction was to say, yes, straight for Severino, 23-year-old.

you know, just looks like he emerges as an ace last year. Bumgarner's only 28. We kind of forget, like, he got started so young. So, I mean, I do rank Severino ahead of Bumgarner, but by like two spots among starting pitchers. Like, obviously, if you'd be keeping Severino for cheaper than you'd be keeping Bumgarner, which seems plausible, if that's the keeper structure, then, yeah, you definitely trade Bumgarner.

gardener for severita but if you're keeping them on equal terms it's just like all other things being equal i think they're pretty equal yeah okay chris from west palm it's in a 10 team head to head points league three keepers one hitter one pitcher and one round 15 or later i will be keeping tray turner i will be keeping chris sale who is my round 15 or later keeper cody bellinger oh this is jd this is jd not chris sorry jd from the spring training home of the cubs is that surprise there's atona no Is it surprise? It would be the surprise is where the royals and rangers are. Oh, okay.

Well, they're in Arizona. Yeah, you were confusing me. The name of that town had me confused at what you were asking us. There is a surprise Arizona. All right, J.D., you want to know who he's keeping. Bellingerlinger or Severino? He's keeping Bellinger, I guess. Points league?

I mean, they're so close to me. For me, they're so close. They're right in the studio next to sky. You got to ask them. They're both third rounders for me. So it's, again, like, I understand why you're asking us. It's a hard decision, but you kind of just have to go with personal preference. I think I'd go Bellinger.

I'd go Severino. Neither one is particularly safe based on track record. So there's no tiebreaker there on like Bumgarner. I'll go Severino. It's just a little harder to find that. All right. Now, here's Chris from West Palm. He says, hey, Manny, Chris, John, and Tim.

Mani Chris, John, and Tim. I always think Manny Ramirez, but that... Is this the Baltimore Orioles infield? Mani Machado. And Chris Davis. Chris Davis, Tim Beckham. Jonathan Scope. John.

Scope. Oh, there you go. Nice. If you put Jonathan... Come on. Who calls him John? I have a feeling we're wrong. Chris from West Palm.

Chris from West Palm goes. All right. He plays in a four-player keeper. League. Keepers have three-year contracts and count as picks one through four in, you know, rounds one through four. Assuming that Robert Acuna is not kept. Ronald. Ronald, I knew it sounded wrong coming off the tongue. Ronald Acuna is not kept. How early is too early to pick Acuna? I was thinking of even grabbing him in round five, six or seven, eight due to long-term upside. I believe he has trout-level potential. Being that I was the champ, I will more than likely have a pick on the turn.

So in a keeper league with three-year contracts, when would you take Acuna? I think people usually, especially in this type of league, overvalue the future. And so I would not take him probably until 9-10. Yeah. I think I agree with that. It's just the keeper incentive isn't quite there isn't quite enough of a long-term incentive in this league since it's just a three-year commitment, and it would be one of your first four picks for those three years. He's only 20, so it might take him until 25 to really be a high-end fantasy performer, assuming he ever is. Does he technically have trout-level potential?

Maybe he does, but the potential of that specific outcome is so minute. There's so many others, you know, he could be a fine player. He could be a first rounder someday and not anywhere close to Trout. But it's just no telling when that's going to happen if it does. And it's like you're giving up a lot of proven players who are still young by committing to him that way. What's more likely, Bryce Harper's career or Mike Trout's career? Well, Harper's career, because it hasn't been as good. Harper, that would still be a great outcome.

Right, but Harper wasn't worth a first round pick until his fourth season. yeah that's a good point so would you take in a keeper league like this would you take a cunia or yellich I would take yelich yeah it depends how long the

the tail is on the keeper but there's a decent chance of cunia's just christian yelich like i think he'll be better than that but that's a realistic palisic but you would expect yelch be better this year yes yep cool all right guys thank you very much good stuff we're back later in the week we're looking at thursday

We'll do some more rankings, disputes, talk fantasy baseball. Maybe we'll get a freaking signing, something going on in the hot stove. Yeah. And I'm here for Solarte? That wasn't big news? Not quite. Not quite. We're just below J.D. Martino's level.

For Scott, for Heath, for Chris, I'm Adam. Talk to you Thursday.