Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Breakout Potential, Safe vs. Upside SPs

Episode Date: January 11, 2018

Jay Bruce to the Mets! Can we expect Bruce to do exactly what he has done in the past two seasons (2:40)? ... Adam has a fairly crappy list of four players with breakout potential (9:10). The guys rank them and discuss one who actually does have a chance for a monster season ... Over/unders for Elvis Andrus' HRs (19:02), Aaron Judge's batting average (20:48), Francisco Lindor's HRs (26:48) and Chris Archer's ERA (33:45). Then we discuss when to draft Noah Syndergaard (36:44) as we give different takes on drafting SPs with elite upside vs. drafting SPs with a high floor ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Thursday, January 11th, we've got some news. Jay Bruce going to the Mets for three years and $39 million, plus Cody Allen avoids arbitration. We're going to talk about some players with breakout potential. I have put together a list of four players, a truly terrible breakout potential list. I didn't realize how bad it was until after I did all the research, so look forward to that. We'll do some over-unders and some more rankings debates. Welcome to this show. I'm Adam Azar with Chris Towers, Scott White, Heath Cummings.

What up, fellas? It seems like if you discuss. If you've never your breakout list was bad, you would have redone the breakout list. I was pot committed. What's bad about having a 31-year-old breakout candidate? Yeah, I know. It's just terrible. So we'll get to that in a minute.

Can you guess the 31-year-old breakout candidate? Probably not because he has no business being on a breakout list. Everybody— What kind of broke out last year? We have really teased the rest of the show. He had 228 last year. Yeah, well, okay, so we keep giving more clues. It's like fifth of the majors and steals.

dropping so many hints. It's so many hints here. Let's see if people can figure it out. I want to tell everybody about our new podcast, the Sportsline DFS podcast. That's Heath Cummings and Mike McClure. I am on it often. Chris will be on it sometimes. And we give you DFS advice every day.

And it's really good, DFS advice. So far, so good. Unless Serge Abaka gets ejected, which never helps the lineup. So, yeah, check that out. It's the Sportsline DFS podcast. And if you want our other podcast, go to CBSports.com. slash podcast singular. It's very simple.

And there you go. And subscribe. All right. Any pleasantries that we need to get? You guys are good. Everything's fine. Families are good. Hi.

Hello. Great. Dogs and cat are good, Chris? Yeah. Yeah, they're doing well. I mean, my dog is awful, but still alive. So I don't know if it's good or bad. Yeah.

Anybody do this, the spray bottle with the cat? Anybody spray them? It doesn't work. You can't train a cat, Adam. Get out of here. This is the thing that I've realized about that. We tried. with the cat when we first got her. We got her as a kitten. And cats are adventurous. They want to

climb things. And so every time she climbed on the kitchen counter, we would like try to shush her off. And we did the bottle for about a week. And I just felt bad. And what I realized is that when I'm not there, she's just climbing on the counter. And it's not really going to solve anything. So the cat can pretty much go wherever she wants now. Okay. Well, I just started the water bottle training yesterday. So we'll see how it goes. Wanted some advice. Thank you for the advice. The Mets signed Jay Bruce to a three-year, $39 million deal. And he has been pretty consistent the last two seasons. He has been 20th in points in 17th in Roto in 2016 and 19th in 18th in Roto in 2017. That's Jay Bruce and his outfield rankings. So he's about

250 hitter, 33, 36 home runs, about 100 RBIs. Is it that simple with Jay Bruce? Can we expect him to just be around the 20th best outfielder in 2018? I think it'll be a very similar season. Obviously, we've seen him play for the Mets before, and it was among the better stretches of his career. So there's not a lot of mystery to this. That may not be an accident.

Kevin Long is gone. But during his time, I'm with the Mets. Encouraged Jay Bruce to embrace his pool and fly ball tendencies. And that's what he did. He had the highest fly ball rate of his career last season, 47%. And he's a very dangerous hitter when he hits the ball to right field in the air. Now, here's the thing about that.

When he encouraged Jay Bruce to embrace his pool tendencies, he did it 30 minutes after. Jay Bruce finished eating. I'm surprised with those pool tendencies that he didn't entertain an offer from the Marlins or the Diamondbacks. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, he gets wrinkly fingers from being in the pool too long. That's how he grips the bat.

It's actually really good for him. Thanks, guys. There you go. I think you're with me on this, Adam. I find that people don't appreciate Jay Bruce. Like, as he was being a top 20 outfielder all last season, you couldn't trade him like a top 20 outfielder. And going into this season, he's not drafted that way. He tends to be lumped into a lower tier of outfielders that includes guys like Cory Dickerson.

I think part of the problem is that the places that Jay Bruce brings value are generally the easiest places to find replacements. That makes sense in the categories league. Yeah, he's an outfielder who hits for power, gives you pretty good RBI numbers, and that's about it. I've got him as a top 20 outfielder. Yeah. But he hit 254 last season, driven 101 runs, hit 36 home runs. That's valuable. But if you lost that guy, you could replace 85% of his production pretty easily on the waiver wire.

It's not a bad point. I think the deeper your league, the more outfield spots you need, the more valuable Bruce feels to me anyway. Like, I'd be pretty excited about getting him with a mid-to-late round pick. I don't know. Where do you think he goes? Like, round 10 or so in a 12-team league? I'd have to pull up our mock draft results. I have him 20th among my outfielders.

That's where I rank him. That's where I would draft him. I haven't had to draft him yet. I did draft him. Since we're kind of looking at the categories angle. In our roto draft, Jay Bruce went in round. They only used first. Here's a question.

Round seven. End of round seven. Where did Adam Duvall go? Adam Duvall. Who is worse than Jay Bruce? He basically had the same season Jay Bruce did last year. Seven rounds later. He went seven rounds.

Yeah, Jay Bruce hit 36 home runs, drove in 101 runs, hit 254. And Adam Duval hit 241, so worse, 33 home runs, a little worse, 103 RBI, 85 runs. like he was pretty close to j bruce and that's that's what i mean how big is the obp difference j bruce is on base percentage isn't very high so it's probably like duval's is 301 so yeah i think j bruce was like 319 all right well i i guess so there is also the issue of duvall's probably not going to play as much this year because they got to get winker in that's the question we have to talk about with the met's is who the hell's going to play where uh randandandneemois Moe in center, J.B. Houston, right. Maybe some at first, too, if Dominic Smith is awful.

Yeah. And Cuspet isn't left. So, Conforto is not playing. No, Morgon. No, Juan Ligaris. This is a crowded outfield. Oh, that's true. I forgot. You know, I forgot about Comforto. We're not sure he's going to be ready. Conforto in Centerfield is what I read last night, when he's healthy, which could be, could be at the start of the season. But, yeah, I mean, they don't seem to care that much about defense in their outfield, it appears. But keep getting boxed out of center fielders. They gave $39 million to Jay Bruce, so they definitely don't care about defense. All right, moving on. Cody Allen signed a one-year deal, $10.5 million.

And he had 30 of the team's 37 saves last season. Cleveland has had 37 or 38 saves as a team in three straight seasons, and Alan has had 30 to 34 saves in those three seasons. It's very weird. He's a great pitcher just about every year of his career, and he never gets more than 34 saves. Will this be the year that Cody Allen gets more than 34 saves? Sure.

Yeah, I'll bet on that. No. I don't rank him like you will. So I guess I'm saying no. It's never made a lot of sense why he doesn't. Where do I have him? I think I have him a little too low. I have Corey, sorry, Cody Allen's 16th among relievers.

I have him 15th, and I think he should probably be 10th. maybe 11 or 12 but I'm going to move them up just a little bit So he got all but one of the Indian saves last year? No, all but seven. All but seven, okay. That's still a higher percentage than I would have thought. I mean, I thought Andrew Miller would pilfer like 10 saves from Allen last year.

And I still think there's a chance he does this year because it's, you know, it's a weird case where the closer is not the team's best reliever. And, you know, we saw Andrew Miller close out games in the playoffs prior to last year. So, I don't know, it's still something to keep in mind. Okay. You ready for the worst breakout list ever? Yes. All right.

Here we go. So I got four guys that, you know, did some good things last year, except for one who kind of had a bad year, but maybe he can bounce back. And, well, here they are. Why don't you rank them in terms of 2018 breakout potential? have their best full season. Cameron Mabin, here's your 31-year-old with all those steals. Byron Buxton, Zander Bogartz, yes, you could definitely make the case that he broke out two years ago. But I thought there was still more improvement there for Bogarts to be made.

He didn't sustain the breakout if he broke out two years ago. Right. So Mabin, Buxton, Bogartz, and Patrick Corbyn, a pitcher on this list. Why don't you rank them one through four in breakout potential for 2018? Buxton? Yep. Yep. Corbin, I would go second.

Oh, we're doing the rest? Maven's definitely last. Yes, I would go Buxton, Corbyn, Bogart's Maven. I might go Bogart's over Corbyn, but it's really, like, Buxton is the breakout candidate that's on this list. Maven is, and then Bogart's and Corbyn or whatever. There is room for Maven to be better than he was. last season. Sure.

He had a 274 Babbap. This is a guy with a 316 mark for his career. But he's a bounceback candidate. Well, I don't even think he's a starter. Well, he's a free agent, right? Right. He's a free agent. I would guess he's not signed to be a starter unless a rebuilding team signs him to be a

space filler. The reason I put him on here is you steal 33 bases in 114 games. You've got big time, you know, you've got potential. to be rostered in every category's league. It's Cameron Maven. He's going to be 31 years old in April. And he did hit pretty well before his oblique injury. And we've seen oblique injuries really derail people's seasons even after they come back

off the DL from them. And I think he had a knee injury later in this season. He's like never had one great season or anything. He tied his career high and home runs last year. With 10 in 114. Look, if he gives you 15 steel, he was on a 47 steel. pace. So it gives you 15 home runs and 40 steals. Like that's a guy that, that would be a breakout season. His steals to a bet ratio could be high. He's kind of what Ragee Davis used to be

to fantasy owners. Of course, I'm looking at Davis. He himself stole 29 bases last year, but he's 36 and I, well, he's 37 now. And I suspect Mabin's going to make a bigger impact than Rijey Davis. But that's, that's kind of what I see Mabin's niche being in fantasy, strictly a category's player and strictly if you just need a steel specialist. But, you know, last season, 33 stolen bases was good for fifth in baseball. Yep. Right. So, well, let's talk about the other guys.

Let's talk about the guys you like. Well, or the guy you like, maybe. Buckston is definitely a breakout candidate and also potentially someone that I will not draft at all this season because he's going to go. awfully high in a lot of mock drafts, especially, and we'll see about the general populace. But he's someone that industry people might end up really, really high on, like, drafting inside the top 50. So in our roto league, which was industry people, our first roto draft back in December, he went in round seven just a little before Jay Bruce. I have him rank six spots behind Jay Bruce.

he's my 26th outfielder. Oh, you know what? He actually may be higher. I have the wrong rankings open. He's absolutely someone who is much more valuable in Roto than head to head. So I have Buckson 22nd versus J. Bruce 24th in Roto. So there you go. He actually should go ahead of J. Bruce.

So I think that was an appropriate place to draft him, at least if we're just looking relative to Bruce. And, you know, obviously there's some steals potential there and those are scarce. but the improvements he made as an offensive player, particularly in the second half last year, are what have me so excited about Byron Bucks and what has the industry as a whole excited about Buxton. He's not going to be a high average hitter. No. But hit 300 in the second half.

He does profile as a high-babit guy who can get away with striking out a lot, and now is developing power, 16 home runs last year, 11 of them in the second half. I don't think it's a stretch to say there's a good chance he's a 20-30 guy this year. He could legitimately be a top 10 outfielder in Roto. Yep. Can he strike out 24% of the time? I don't think he even has to. But I think if he strikes out 24% of the time, he probably hits 280 and is a top 10 outfield.

Yeah. Well, listen, but here's the issue with Buckson. Yeah, okay, last 56 games batted 298 with 3.42. on base, 541 slugging, 12 walks, a 62 strikeout. So, you know, that's not going to be a good ratio for him. But what about September 2016 after he was recalled? He batted 287 with a 357 on base, 653 slugging, nine home runs in a month. We thought he was going to break out.

And then he was really bad until he did break out. He did it, really. It was, well, I mean, he had the steels. Not if he drafted him. Yeah, yeah, right. Like, he was dropped. He was terrible. He was dropped pretty much across the board.

Yeah, people gave up on him too soon. No, they didn't get it. I don't think they did. He had like a sub-600 OPS the first three months to 16th. Yeah, you can't say that. He was awful. Okay, but regardless, the timing wasn't perfect. But he did have, you know, he did build off that September.

And in that September, he struck out a lot more than he did in the second half last year. In the second half, his strikeout rate was down to 27.6%, which is, it's not terrible. It's definitely something you can work with. What I would say is he did it for one month at the end of 2016. He did it for two months at the end of 2017. I expect four great months from Byron Bucson this year. All right. Or three.

It depends. I thought you were going to go three. Four. Exactly. Wow. He doubled it last year. That's exponents. Yes.

Get ready for 2019. Eight great months of Byron Bucson. All right. His line drive rate was way up in the second half, too, which helps. So the strikeout rate was way down. The line drive rate was way up. And he should be a high babbitt. He's a breakout.

candidate. He is going to break out. Patrick Corbyn. Patrick Corbyn, you know, finished the season with better strikeouts. But, boy, this guy gave up a lot of hits because he gets a lot of ground balls. But his whip is just terrible. I mean, we're talking like 1.5 whip, 1.42 last year, even worse the year before. So, I don't know. That's kind of wondering if that holds him back, Corbyn. Yeah, it does. I mean, his strikeout rate over the last couple of, months, you felt like, okay, this guy needs to be getting better results than he is. But he probably is somebody who profiles as a high bat-bit pitcher, a guy who's around

325 every year. And that's true of a lot of pitchers who get ground balls. So it's still encouraging that he seemed to improve his bat missing ability that he's going to have a great offense backing him. You know, he's not going to be even a number three for your fantasy team, but if you draft him as a four or five, he may end up surprising you. Do we know if he's getting a humidor?

I still haven't heard any confirmation. There's nothing that I can find about the humidor. I would like him more if you got the humidor, but I am not really very interested. He's had his best season. Yeah, I wonder if the, uh, The Diamondbacks have a pretty well publicized feud with the city of Phoenix about Chase Field and their future there and the amount of money that both sides need to invest. I wonder if that's holding up the humidor.

Maybe. Let's get on it. Investigative team. Crack the case, guys. That's my challenge to you. All right. So let's do some over-unders for much more interesting players than the breakout guys. guys we just talked about. I thought that was a... Thank you for turning chicken scrap into chicken soup or whatever they...

And don't give up on Zander Bogartz delivering on all of his potential at some point. Still possible. He did it two years ago. He did it two years ago. I think he was the number two shortstop and fantasy. Zander Bogartz. It might be number one. Well, number one. No, he's number two. I mean, he didn't do it in a very believable way. Like, he was on my bus list last year because there was a lot of reasons to be skeptical of that 2016 quote unquote breakout. but he's still young enough that he could

completely transform his bedded ball profile and obviously has a great pedigree so what he's saying is valid he could still become an elite shortstop just not betting on it. He's someone you like a lot more this year than you did last year though probably. Yeah I mean I still think he's probably going too high

but not nearly as high as he did last year. Who do you guys prefer Elvis Andrews or Zander Bogartz? Elvis. Yep. I'm not so sure. Elvis Andrews is going to be on my bust list. Well, we're going to talk about him. Let's talk about him right now.

Let's go to our over-unders. Over-under 12-and-a-half home runs for Elvis Andrews, who hit, I believe, 20 last year, which was by far a career high hit. 20, he had never hit more than eight before that. So I'll give him 12-5 home runs over-under for Elvis Andrews. I'm going to say over. I'll give him about 16. I'll go over.

Yeah, that's 16 might be a little higher than I want to go But he said 12 is the number 12 and a half 12 and a half so I can't say push I'm going to go under I've got him for 12 12 okay I think it's a great number

So if he gets to 12 and he steals his typical 25 bases Why will Elvis Andrews be on your bus list Yeah that's still be a pretty good season Well I'm afraid people are going to draft him in the third or fourth round We've seen him being drafted in the third round in at least one draft I've been in. Really? So our in-house drafts, and I'm, you know, I may have not been in that draft you're referring to.

But in our in-house drafts, he wins. Is that the 15-team one? Okay. He went in round six of a points league, which has tended to be his better format, even though he steals some bases. And he went in round six of a roto league. So that's, that's fine, now. You're right. If he's going in round six, you probably won't make my bust list.

We'll see what his ADP shows. It would be so cool if some fantasy house was just like, yeah, this draft I did that nobody knew about. It was just like, yeah, he went in this round. Like, you know, no proof. Just make it up? Yeah, just like I just did. No, I mean, that was on going the first round. Well, that was a 15-team.

He went right after that out too, Bay. Yeah, you could have, you could have included that was a 15-team draft. That would have been nice. It was early in the third. Okay. Fair enough. All right, so that's your over-under for Elvis Andrews. Let's go to Aaron Judge.

Over under, 270 batting average. Adam, do you want me to terrify you? You don't have to, because I'm already thinking whatever you're going to say. Okay, let me get the right number. Hold on. Somebody else talk. Under. Under 270? Yeah, I'd say he's closer to 250 than he gets to 270.

Yeah, I also take the under. Though, it's worth pointing out, he's taking the under and has him in his first round. I'm taking the under and have judge at the end of my second round. So he doesn't have to hit 270 to be a stud. No, no, not at all. Well, so that's interesting. But the lowest batting average, I looked at the top 15 overall hitters in both points and roto over the last two seasons. The lowest batting average for a top 15 hitter last year was Muki Betts.

He had a 264 batting average and was the number two. 10 hitter in points, not even close in Roto. But, you know, he had 77 walks, or he had 77 walks, 79 strikeouts. There's no way Judge is going to do that. He'll have more walks, though. He will have more walks, but he won't have the ratio. Yep, the thing is... Well, hold on.

I just want to finish the point real quick. Also, Brian Dozier. Brian Dozier was the number 14 hitter in points leagues, and he was right away. He was number 12 in Roto. Dozier hit 269 with 34 home runs. And in 2017, in 2016, it was, it was also Dozier and Encarnacio, and they both hit in the 260s. They both hit 42 home runs. They were the number 8 and 10 hiters in points leagues, number 8 and number 15 in Roto.

So, like, if you don't hit 260 in each of the last two years, you haven't been a top 15 hitter. I don't think he's going to hit 260. I've got him at 253. I think that might be high It might be high I think it's about right I still think he's going He's one of the more likely

Hitters to score 110 runs One of the more likely hitters To hit 45 home runs One of the more likely hitters To drive in 110 runs So I'm just not that worried About the betting average I mean in terms of power

Like Stanton and Judge are in a class of their own And he's going to be hitting him in front of him. So it's not, you can't even really compare him to those other players because, I mean, what's the floor for Judge in terms of home runs? The floor, I feel like, is 40 home runs. Probably 35. Would it surprise you if he hit 42 home runs? I think Encarnacion, 263 with 42 home runs and 127 RBIs two seasons ago, like that seems like a good, I mean, I would take that from Aaron Judge. 263, 42, and 127. And that made Encarnazio in the number 10 hitter in points, probably number 11 because David Ortiz wasn't on the list. And number 15 in Roto, probably number 16, just David Ortiz retired. He wasn't in the player pool. But he played that year.

So you know what I mean? I mean, like batting average is pretty important if you want to be a top 15 hit. And it's one of the hardest categories to find real value in. And it's one of the harder ones to make up value. I just, I think there's a pretty good. chance we saw the best season of judge's career in 2017 and i think there's like there's a 210 batting average floor here is that what you were going to say that was going to scare me well he he he struck out uh in the second half and the playoffs he struck struck struck out 34 percent of the time

yeah like there is real bust potential and there's a chance that he returns like six the round value while being a bus. Like there's a chance he has Joey Gallo's 2017 season, but with more at bats. But at the price you're paying, there's a lot of risk in Aaron Judge. What's the difference between Aaron Judge and C.Riss Davis, Chris Davis of the Orioles? Well, I mean, Judge walked 127 times last year. And maybe if he wasn't having quite the season, he did, he wouldn't have. walked quite that much, but I mean,

Chris Davis has never approached that. And I would also say, I mean, Judge, just the quality of the contact he makes, the kind of... But that was Chris Davis's thing forever. Yeah. Well, I think the bigger... Does Davis compare to stand?

Because for the long, for years, it was just standing, all... You looked at the hardest hit balls, and it was St, Stant, Stant, Stant, and Judge started to creep in there last year. The Stan hit the most home runs last season since Since Chris Dave

But we're But I'm just talking about specifically exit philosophy I would say the other big difference is the runs He's going to score like I don't see a situation where he doesn't score 100 runs Unless he gets hurt Okay Well that's a good point

I just I think he could very easily have a 2016 Chris Davis season Chris Davis hit 221 with 38 homers 99 runs in 84 RBI. So I said 270 as the over-under. Did everybody take the under? Yep. Okay.

And Judge last year hit 284. Pre-all-Star break he batted at 329, post-all-star breakie bat at 228. And the only thing I throw in there is that he did have off-season shoulder surgery, arthroscopic surgery, and he was playing the second half with the shoulder injury, and it's possible that contributed to the higher strikeouts and the lower batting average. So that's a little bit of an optimistic note there for Aaron Judge. Over under for Francisco Lindor, who was the number one shortstop in points in number two in Roto last year, 26 and a half home runs for Francisco Lindor.

He hit 15 home runs in 2016. He hit 33 home runs in 2017 in Roots of becoming the best shortstop in points, second best in Roto. So over under for Lindor, 26 and a half home runs. I'll go under. I'll go under. And he's one of those guys who very much had a fly ball revolution season, but every time anyone asked him about it, he said he was not trying to hit more fly balls.

Yeah, that could be like he could have been lying. But it's also possible that he just had a weird season. In which case, the power breakout is not necessarily real. I'm trying to figure out whether I want the over under here. because that's a pretty good number you picked. Thank you. I'm consulting my, you know, we kind of quasi-projected players this year. We kind of had a hurried projection process.

But I got, I had Lindor down for 27 home runs, which would explain why I was having difficulty coming up with, which way I'd go, I'm taking the over. And I gave 26 and a half as the over-runder. All right, it's 27 home runs. And it's interesting because he's not. a huge steals guy. He's been a 15 to 20 steals guy. He had been a great source of batting average until last year. The average went down, but the fly balls went up and the home runs

went way up. We hit like in the 270s, I believe, 273. So I thought it was interesting that he was so much more valuable as the home run hitter. Also had 44 doubles than the 301 hitter. Just kind of tells you how valuable home runs are. But yeah, anyway, I feel like, I feel like If Lindor is going in the second round and he goes back to being a 15-homer 18-steel guy, he's got some bust potential?

Oh, if he goes in the second round and hits 15 home runs, he has a bust. Well, not if he, not if his not if it's because his batted ball tendency is normalized. I mean, he was a stud shortstop before the big power surge. It's just he got, he got his production in other ways. He was a third or fourth

round stud shortstop. He wasn't. I mean, a second rounder performing like a third rounder is not a bust. Okay. He will not meet value if he gets 15 home run. I don't even think it's that big of a disappointment. I mean, Anthony Rizzo always goes in the first rounder, even though he in the first round,

even though he always performs like a second round. He performs. But that's factual. That doesn't really hurt your team. Specifically with Anthony Rizzo, I am starting to think he might just be overrated, like when you compare his numbers to Jose Abraeus. Well, what you're buying with Rizzo,

and I feel like you're buying it for a certain extent with Lendora's security. And I feel like the quickest way to mess up your fantasy season is to mess up your first round picks. Like if, like, Bryce Harper is a player who, I mean, at his best, he's Mike Trout. But I'm probably not going to draft him because there's so much disaster potential there. Messing up your first two picks by say drafting a shortstop who hits 15 home runs in the second round. But if he's hitting 300, if he's doing, if he's the Lindor of 2016 and previously, I just, I can't, going to be one of your best players.

And getting one of your best players in the second round is not a mistake. I can't help but shake, I can't shake the feeling that, like, he's one of those guys whose lofty rank is largely the result of the fact that he, like, has never missed a game. And there are other better players who maybe missed 15 games who would have ranked higher than him. And so that's, I don't know, I just, I look at him. I don't necessarily see like this incredibly special player. I see a good player. I mean, last year he averaged 3.53 points per game. It was Chris Bryant level, basically.

It'll take me a minute to dig up his 2017 point per game ever. We're talking about here. Francisco Lindoror, last name reminder. Yeah, so you can look that up. I mean, if he doesn't hit, now Scott's got him projected for 27 home runs. It's a big deal. If he goes back to the 15 home run range, he's not that much different than what Elvis Andrews is giving you the last couple years.

I mean, especially last year when he had 20 home runs. Sure. But that was at least second round production from Elvis Andrews last year. Oh, absolutely. Yeah, Andrews was just basically as good. Okay, so last year, Lindor was number one in points, Andrews was number two in points. Andrews was number one in Roto, and Lindor was number two at Roto at shortstop. So they had very, very similar production.

got it in slightly different ways. But, no, I know what you're saying, Scott. I mean, look, this is a 24-year-old player who has been nothing but really good since he's been in the bigs. And last year he was a top shortstop. And there is some safety and security there. You did take him, Scott, and you took Lindor in the second round. I think the only risk, like, let's say he performs like a third or a fourth rounder. The only risk there, really, is that you're, like, you took Jose Ramirez over Aaron Judge, George Springer, Madison Bumgar.

Carter, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seeger, D. Gordon, Gary Sanchez. Those are the guys who, like, you took him over Aaron Judge. So I guess the risk is that you took Ramirez over someone who could be a lot better. Even if you get that third, fourth round production from Ramirez, it's also about the guys you're passing up when you took. Wait, wait. Remares or Lindor? Oh, sorry. You took those here.

Lindor went a pick before Ramirez. Yeah, they go right next to you. They tend to go right next to each other. My bad. So you took Ramirez. So let's pretend you were Justin, and I was talking to you. Justin took Francisco Lindor with the ninth pick of round two. So it's also about who are you passing up.

Like you're passing up Aaron Judge. You're passing up, I don't have a problem with passing up Springer, or Bumgardner-Bellinger or whatever. But you get the point of what I'm saying. There are other great players on the board when you took Lindor. It feels like taking him in the second round is putting a big premium on the position as well. Which it's still like if you're going to put a premium on any position, I would say even over catcher because catchers come with so many wrists.

Yeah. Short stuff's the one to do it on. Like there's five real difference makers at the position, and then it's just kind of, you know, it's not as bad as it used to be, but you're not going to get some bargain shortstop, who, you know, unless you just luck into another Zach Cozart, you're not going to get some bargain stud at the position.

Paul de Jean. Ahmed Rosario. There's no way DeYoung is a stud. All right. Moving on. Somebody walked that little. Jonathan Scope came pretty close last year, but it's hard to do. Now we're moving on.

Last one. Heath, I'll throw this one to you. Chris Archer, 340 ERA for Chris Archer. Last year he had a 407 ERA. 2016. He had a 402 ERA. But three straight years, 2013 to 2015, it was under 330. So I'm giving you 340 for Chris Archer next year over under. I think 340 is a really good number.

I would like to know before speculating on a ZRA what park he's going to be pitching his home games in and what division he's going to be pitching against. But I suppose I'm not given that information before guessing. I'll say over, but just barely. I would guess he's right around 3-4 to 3-5. Well, whatever the park is, it's not going to be better. No, it's going to be most, well, most likely going to be worse. He might get traded to San Francisco. Yeah.

But other than that, it's going to be a worse park. Yeah, but getting out of the ALEs could do him pretty much. well. That's true. I'm taking over regardless of where he winds up. Even acknowledging that like his, his Phipps his Phipps suggest his ERA is inflated. But I don't know. When it gets to happening as consistently

as it has for Archer, it's hard for me to keep hyping the FIP. Okay. Well, he's a really interesting pitcher. I mean, 249 strikeouts last year, but also the whip has been kind of high. 1.26 last year, 1.24 the year before. And I don't know, he's never, like, I don't think he's maybe had one season where he's been a great whip pitcher. He's got a little bit of a problem with not being great when things start to go sideways. One or two bad things turns into a monster a little too often for him to do you.

Yeah, that's true. And that's one of those things where we don't have great metrics to measure that sort of thing. and I do believe He's actually not that bad with men on base though. Yeah. Like 306 Wobah allowed, but 285 with the base is empty, but men in scoring position, he actually, for his career, has a lower Wobah

than with the base is empty. It's weird. It's so hard to make statements on this podcast because you know somebody else is just going to fan graphs you to fact check you. Well, I don't think what Chris said, that's good, but I don't think, that really changes the fact that he's had a lot of blow-up

innings. Like, it's just more interesting information. You know what? We need like a stab boy like PTI has, somebody who can just fact-check everything we're saying off fly. Because, yeah, I sometimes hesitate

to say something that would be, you know. I think just say it. Yeah. Just say it, yeah. Don't care if you sound like an idiot and lose all credibility. Who cares?

You can't lose all your credibility. You can only lose a little bit. retain a smidgen. This all implies that we have credibility. That's true. All right, let's go back to Tuesday's leftovers. We did make or break. We did rankings debates.

We only have time for one. So let's do make a break. Will Noah's Cindergarde make or break your team as the 39th overall pick? All right, Chris, you actually made the pick. So I'll let you make the case for Cindergarde as a make your team at 39th overall third pick of round four. and then Scott you can break it and Heath you can judge. Noah Cindergarde, Chris, going to make your team. We talk about the big four at starting pitcher.

Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and the other guy. Can't remember his name. Chris Sale, sorry. Noah Cindergarde for his career has been almost exactly as good as that entire group. with the exception of Clayne Kerchall, who's in another level, but has his own concerns. So the issue with Noah Sinigard is... You forgot on a per inning basis.

On a per inning basis, yes. We've never seen him go 200 innings. He had 183 in 2016. If he gets 183 in 2018, he's going to be right on the cusp of being one of the best pitchers in baseball. We've seen it. He's one of the best strikeout pitchers. He gets a ton of ground balls. he has great control.

The only issue with Noah Cindergarde is injury. That's a big issue. On the other hand, if he has a slightly heightened injury risk relative to other pitchers, there aren't that many pitchers with his kind of upside. Madison Bumgarner, it wasn't a baseball injury, but he suffered a serious injury to his throwing shoulder. Why is he less of a risk than Noah Cindergarde? Well, he came back looking basically the same.

He had months to do it. So it's a question of time. He pitched three innings after his injury, and he looked good in those three. I think it's because we've seen him go over 200 innings six years in a row before having a serious shoulder injury. On a motorbike. Like innings, I feel like, are the... Hold on. Do the ligaments not get injured when you injure yourself on a motorbike?

You are being ridiculous if you're going to say that injuring yourself on a motorbike is not the same. No, I'm saying injuring your lap is less of a concern than injuring the shoulder with which you deliver the baseball. Injuring your shoulder on a bike is less concerning than how tricky shoulders are. And I was very concerned about Bumgarner after that injury. What was he going to look like? Was he going to be the same? He had made 13 starts afterward and had 3.43 R.A., which isn't the best Madison Bumgarner, but he's going seven innings at a time and doing that. I mean, he looked fine.

He looks like he's fine. I'm not really concerned. This isn't a pro. That's in a different courtroom. This is the people versus Noah Cindergarde. You are prosecuting him. Look, if the Mets manager now is a pitching coach, right? Yes.

Mickey Calloway, pitching coach. The Mets used to do ridiculous things with their starting pitchers, overworking them. that's not going to happen anymore. Noah Cinderguard having pitched only, how many innings was it? Having pitched only 30 and a third innings last year, there's no way he's getting more than 180 this year. An inning for inning, he might be as good as all those aces,

but if your cap is 180 innings, I mean, maybe you'll get into the top 10, and I haven't ranked in the top 10. But I have a feeling somebody just because of the sizzle of Noah Cindergarde is going to draft him. even earlier than that. It's a really good thing. I didn't draft him where all those other starting pitchers were being drafted.

He was drafted in the fourth round at 39th overall. I'm sorry, Scott. Were you done with your argument? Yeah. Am I ruling on the arguments or on the make or break status of taking Noah Sendergarde with the third pick of the fourth round? No, I want to know. Okay, first you have to rule on who had a better case. And then we could all say how we really feel about Cinderguard, 39th overall.

Actually, I have Cindergarde 12, not even in my top 10. Sorry, just wanted to throw that in there. I also do not have Cindergarde in my top 10. Chris Towers is a great arguer, a better arguer in this instance, than Scott White. But Chris Towers isn't arguing with Scott White. He's arguing with Chris Towers, who told us for a year and a half that pitchers get hurt. and that's why it's better to take hitters at the start of dress. And now he's taking a pitcher that just got hurt that only threw 30 innings last year with the third pick of the fourth round.

So you don't like it? So Chris Towers wins the argument? I will quote. But it's Chris Towers. I will quote America's poet Walt Whitman. Yes. Do I contradict myself? Very well.

I contradict myself. I am large. I contain multitudes. And I have changed my tune slightly. Now, obviously during mock drafts... Are you still quoting Walt Whitman? Yes. Okay.

During mock drafts, we try to... Everybody but Scott tries to experiment with their approach to team building. And I look at... Like, I took him over Carlos Carrasco, Zach Grinke... Don't give me pitchers. Robbie Ray. Don't give me pitchers. Why?

I took him ahead of. Marcelo Zuna, Andrew Benintendi, Chris Davis, Edwin and Carnacione, Tommy Fam, and Jonathan Scope. You're really telling me that by taking Noah Cindergarde, who might be the best pitcher in baseball next season, I'm really assuming a lot more risk than taking Andrew Benintendi or Edwin and Carnacione or Tommy Fam or Marcelo Zuna? I would rather take Noah's hitters.

No, you wouldn't. I wouldn't, but I'd rather take some of the pitchers. who went after Cindergard, then Cindergarde. Yeah, well, that's interesting. Like who? The reliable... The reliable... The reliable Zach Granky?

Yes. Well, Zach Granky's my number five pitchers. The reliable Robbie Ray? No, I have Cindergarde ahead of Ray. But I would take Carasco over Cindergarde. That's pretty interesting, though, that you guys have the same read on pitchers versus hitters. Well, that Scott and... Chris do that Heath doesn't.

I mean, that's a really interesting part of the draft where, you know, you've got Ace Upside with Verlander, Cinderguard, Carrasco, and Granky. I mean, that's legit ace upside. We've seen it very recently from all of them. And then you've got Daniel Murphy was taken by me, first pick of the fourth round. And then it was Verlander, Cinderguard, Ozuna, Benintendi, Carrasco, Keras, Davis, Granky. So Scott and Chris seem to think the pitchers are better than the hitters.

here. They just disagree on the order of the pitchers. Whereas Heath says, no, I'd rather take, I'd rather take those Marcello Zuna, Ben, and Tend, I don't know how many of them, but you'd rather take hitters there. I'd rather take the hitters there. This is not, this was a rotodraft, right? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I mean, you're, you're assuming more risk by taking the pitcher early, and that's why I used to not do that, but I used to all, I used to be able to count on aces emerging from that, that middle group that, like, aces are a dying breed. It won't be long before there's zero 200 in pitchers in the game. And so it's not like these new ones are going to be manufactured.

Yeah, Severino emerged last year, but it's not with near the frequency it used to be. It's not something you can count on. It used to be managers would ask every pitcher to give them at least 180 innings. And now some, like, they've just learned through increased use of data, through recurring injuries, whatever, that some pitchers just aren't equipped to do that and never will be. I don't think Lance McCullers, for instance, will ever be a 180 inning pitcher.

And I think the Astros are fine with that. But that means he's never going to be an ace, too, no matter how good he is on an inning for inning basis. Those aces can really set your team apart in a way that they didn't use to. And that's why when I say I'm kind of rethinking my approach, that's still, I'm still steering into the curve. of pitcher risk or pitcher variance is really the way to put it. And that's why, you know, the two pitchers I took early in this draft are Clayton Kershaw and Noah Cindergarde. Okay.

I would never take Zach Granky in the fourth round. I know he can return value in the fourth round. I don't feel like Zach Rankie is very likely to return a lot of surplus value. I think Zach Rankie is a pretty safe guy who can pitch well enough to be worth that fourth round. I don't need surplus from my early rounders. I just need them to be healthy, to be a round, to be what I drafted them to be. I disagree. Okay. I want surplus from the late round picks that I didn't invest much in. But you took Tommy Fam in that round. Yeah. Well, that's kind of Scott's guy. Scott loves that thing. Right, but you're not drafting Tommy Fam because you think he's a fourth rounder. You're drafting Tommy Fam because you think he's going to provide surplus value. That's what I'm doing with Noah Sinigard. Tommy Fam is not safe. So if we're talking about safe early round pick. That's fair. That's fair. That's a That's fair. That's fair. That's fair. But if I'm going to invest in safety, I'm going to do it with a hitter. If I'm going to invest in a pitcher, I'm going to look for the home run.

I don't think Zach Ranky's that. I don't think Carlux Carrasco is that. I think those are both good pitchers. But I don't think either of those guys is likely to put up a 2-5 ERA with 11 strikeouts per nine next season. Noah Cindergarde can do that. But I don't know why you don't want safety with your pitchers. I don't, why? Because pitchers aren't safe. I mean, there are,

some are safer than others. It's not like, but they're not, even playing. But they're, but they are inherently unsafe. But you've also taken, and Zach Rankie,

last year, two years ago, sucked. He, yeah, but I mean, you talk about, if he goes in the fourth round,

four of the last five years, he's been better than that. Yeah, and he's 34 years old. And we're talking about safety. Two years ago, he wasn't safe. But Noah's Senegarde hasn't been safe once.

He is not safe. Noah Sinigard hasn't been safe once. And the upside's not that high. So Noah Seneguard is equally safe to Zett Green. No. I mean, Zach Grangey isn't as safe is a lot higher. I can agree with that. But he's as safe as any pitcher you're drafting beyond Chris Sale.

And I'm not, and like I said, I'm looking for upside, not safety. I'm not looking for a low three ERA and a strikeout per any. I'm looking for a guy who can challenge for an ERA title and lead the league in strikeouts. Okay. I mean, you got it. You're exposing yourself to more risk, which is fine. I mean, you like to roll the dice when you play. That's fine.

So here's a good stat for you. Noah Cindergare. Would you take this season at 39th overall from Noah Cindergarde? Would you take – come on, Adam. Find it in your notes. Where the hell are you? Would you take 360 ERA, 14 and 9, 260 ERA, 218, 218, 18-18 strikeouts, and 183,000. and two-thirds with a 1.15 whip.

Of course. He was the number 17 pitcher in points, number 13 in Roto, in 2016, with those exact numbers. He would have been 13th in points with that same point total last year. So, I mean, that's just something to consider. He threw 183 and two-thirds innings was basically, you know, one of the probably three best pitchers. I don't know off top of my head, but he was clearly one of the very, very best pitchers on a per- inning basis, but he only threw 183 and two.

two-thirds. He had the fewest innings pitched of any top 20 starting pitcher in 2016, and Cindergarde finished as 17th in points and 13th in Roto. And that's pretty close to his ceiling. Yeah, I disagree. You think he could throw more than 183 innings this year? Well, he threw 210

innings that season. Yeah. He threw 30 last year, though. Yeah. Maybe they just completely disregards the 30 last year and just go right back to it. I mean, we've seen with established pitchers that teams are willing to do that. Teams don't just follow, like he's not going to throw 130 innings. No, I don't think so, but he's...

If he's healthy, they're not going to pull him out of the rotation. But, I mean, look at the Mets specific situation. They got rid of a pretty high-profile pitching coach, as well as their manager, and hired a pitching coach as their manager precisely because they were upset with the way pitchers were handled. They're, like, Cinderguards, their most valuable asset. They're going to be super careful with them. Cool. All right, let's do some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

John from Peoria, Illinois. Hey, Jim, Vladimir, and Chipper. First ballot Hall of Famers. No, well, just Hall of Famers. For sure, Hall of Famers this year. It's looking like this year, guys, right. Can you do a segment debating which type of league is the best? I've only played in categories leagues and never considered a points league. Or pretend you were only allowed to play in one fantasy baseball league, but you were the commissioner.

What type of league are you running? Type, number of teams, positions, rules, et cetera. We've got to do this quickly, ours. I do want to read all these emails, so. Head-to-head categories. How many teams, Chris? 12. How many categories?

10. Head-to-head points. I think it's... I like the head-to-head aspect. It keeps everybody interested versus a Roto League and points instead of categories because I think it... It does the better job of rewarding the best players. And by that, I mean the players who take the field and the players who... operate a lineup.

I prefer categories, but only because points are so bad on pitchers. What do you mean they're so bad on pitchers? The way that we distribute points for pitchers. I could do a points. I like points league's a lot. I think they are definitely the most fun. You just don't like that wins get rewarded. No, I'm fine with wins getting rewarded.

wins and losses are way too big of a part of the equation for pitchers. And it's like I don't really even think that's disputable. They are in standard categories too. Well, losses are irrelevant. Losses are relevant. But wins are like in points league you're getting credit for innings and quality starts to kind of mute the effect of wins in a way that doesn't happen. And I will say if I was doing a categories league, I would have quality starts and not wins.

Okay. I always said that I think we have to recalibrate it But I think that you should figure out How many 20 wins seasons are there? They're very rare So like, okay, maybe 18 wins Should count as much as 200 strikeouts

Or something like that Maybe pitchers aren't winners Maybe everybody that plays Maybe all hitters should get credit for a win too See, I don't agree that it's not like the win is completely out of the pitchers control And you can draft the court out of the first basements control. You can draft accordingly, too.

You can draft based on who you think is going to get more wins. Yeah, but that's a fool's errand. No, it's not a fool's errand. It's absolutely a fool's errand. Especially in a time when it's so rare for a pitcher to pitch deep into games. I don't feel like it's that much of a fool's errand anymore. If anything, it is. Max Scher was the best pitcher in the National League on by far the best team in the National League, and he won 16 games.

16 wins are getting less relevant. Wins are getting less relevant because. pitchers are going not as far into games, so they're less likely to be around when the game is decided. How many teams would be in your ideal league, Heath? I like 14. Okay. And I will also say that this is not the same as my personal preference for what league I enjoy playing in the most. It's for a guy that's starting a new league, because I think they should start with a head-to-head format.

I really enjoy Roto. Oh. I don't. I think it's so boring. It's the worst. Oh, it's boring. It's very, very awful if you're not in the top four. If your only league is a roto league, I think you're going to lose interest in fantasy baseball pretty quickly.

If it's just something you're monitoring in addition to the rest of your leagues? I've played in way too many roto leagues where half the league is out by August. Even before that, half the league is out by June. I think I just, I think we fundamentally need to understand that what makes fantasy football so much fun and so popular. is the thing that pisses a lot of diehard fantasy players off, the randomness. I think you need that. Yeah, I agree. I agree.

Every team has a chance. Then we should leave the points for wins and losses the same, because that helps with that. Sure. It does. I think there's a perfect amount of randomness. Okay, here's Adam Azers' unrealistic league. Twelve teams, points scoring for hitters, because our head-to-head point scoring is absolutely perfect for hitters. Maybe I devalue walks a little, maybe.

But head-to-head categories for pitchers. Obviously, this could never happen. I love it. With quality starts replacing wins. Five categories. And it ends at the end of August. We do not play September baseball. The season's too long.

That's one of the great things about Roto. The season is way too long. All right, here we go. 26 weeks is ridiculous. Ooh, Roto Survivor. At the end of April, if you're in last place, you just kicked out. The end of the day, last place is kicked out.

Wow, I like it. All right, so here's an email from Scott. Dear Michael, Ben, George, and Christian. Just, how am I not getting this? Oh, okay. Yeah, nice. What happens to the value of stolen bases in a 7-by-7 league? In a 5-by-5 league, they're 10% of the categories,

but in 7-by-7, they're only 7% of the categories. How much does this reduce the value of a steel specialist like Billy Hamilton? About 30%. I mean, it's a pretty interesting question. I do play in a 7-by-7 categories league. So, yeah, it makes me a little less likely to take... But it makes it much easier to punt a category, and the categories to punt are steals and saves if you're going to punt anything.

The way I would look at it is it lowers the value of each individual category, but steals are the category that are most independent of actually. of everything else. Like, guys who get a lot of RBI tend to have pretty good batting averages, tend to score a lot of runs, tend to hit a lot of home runs. That's not really true,

stolen bases. Now, guys who steal a lot of bases tend to have good batting averages and tend to score runs, but Billy Hamilton. Cameron, Mabin. And so, the pure steel specialist, like he said,

Let's just give an answer. It definitely hurts. I gave an answer. Okay. Sometimes we give an explanation and we don't give an answer. Let's give a, you know. What was your answer, Heath? 30%.

Well, I give like a practical answer, you know? Like, how does it affect you on draft day? I would prioritize it less. I mean, I can't tell you exactly how much less. Tell me. Like if in the middle of the draft, you know, if we got into round six and I didn't have any steals left, I might just say, screw it. I'm not going to go after steel. And I would never do that in a five-by-five league because every category.

is too important. But then if eight people in your league view it that way, you can run away with the steals category pretty easily too. Sure. If eight do, yes. All right. From shy cub, do we say chai or shy? Shy. Shy. Shy cub, Chris. Four Keeper League, no limit on how long you can keep a player. I'm keeping Machado, Stanton, and Severino, trying to decide between Akunia in the 15th versus Bregman in the 12th. Can I go to my old standby? I don't know what it is. Bregman's Bregman, but Acuna could be anything.

He could even be Alex Breggman. You know how much you've always wanted one of those. It has to be Breggman. Yeah, I don't think the uncertainty of Acuna, I think there's more than three rounds. It's worth more than a three round discount. Okay. This is from Luke in Canton. Dear Albert, Taco, and Liberty.

Oh, Bells. Oh. All right. I have been craving Taco Bell. Like, I can't even put into words in which I want Taco Bell. Me too. Chris, let's do it. Let's commit.

I feel so bad about myself when I do, but I'm right there with you. I'm going to go get some of Zoom. The last two days, it's been like, I should get Taco Bell for lunch, and I don't. Because it's been so long since I've eaten Taco Bell. Like Taco Bell is the one, like, I'm not, I'm not like a snob when it comes to fast food. I, I enjoy fast food to some degree, but Taco Bell is one that I feel like, I mean, it's kind of been lapped by like the Moes and Chipotle's of the world. I mean, that's kind of true, but it's, when you want Taco, when you want Taco Bell, nothing else would do. That's 100%.

A hundred percent true. All right. Last email here from Luke. How do you generate auction values when you do your rankings, specifically? in Roto. We're doing it right now. Arbitrarily. Very painfully.

Look, you can come up with a formula. I'm working on a series right now that's based on how much value each player generates with each category. And you can come up with a way to monetize that and turn those into auction values. But it's, for the most part, it's, you're not going to. find a set of auction values anywhere that's actually going to play out like your auction. Like, it's not going to come close. So the way I do it is, you know, I figure out how many players are going to be auctioned in the standard format, 12 teams, you know, how big are the roster sizes?

So, and how much money is going to be spent between the number of teams in your league. So it's 312 team league where every team has a $260 budget. That's what we base it on. You know, standard roto would go 276 deep. Standard head would go to 52 deep. I pick a value that historically the most expensive player tends to go for. Mike Trout, it's usually like in the low 40s, and I sign him that value. I drop dollar amounts as the talent level drops all the way down to 276, and I get it to add up to 312.

Mike Trout never goes in the low 40s. Well, he does, yeah, he goes, I mean, it depends on who you draft with. I mean, and in a mixed league, people are more likely to get carried away. That's the thing, too. Mix league versus a ALNL only format, I'm going to centralize the values a little more in the deeper format where you can't, you know, replacement level player isn't going to be nearly as good. See, this was a great opportunity for a callback to the previous joke where he could be like, no, there was that one draft. that I did where he went for 42. And we could be like, oh.

I mean, I've seen Trout go for in my Keeper League, which inflates values. Yeah. He went for $60. Keeper League. Yeah. Keeper League changes the equation. But greatly. I've seen him go for 50 in non-keeper.

Because the Keeper Lease, you get guys kept for $2 who would normally go for $35, you know. All right, cool. Well, we're out of here. Thank you, everybody, for listening to us ramble on. It's been a lot of fun. Starting to really get into it. We're getting closer and closer. Pretty soon we'll be doing position previews.

So enjoy the NFL playoffs. Listen to the Sportsline DFS podcast. And have a great weekend, everybody. For Chris, for Scott, for Heath. I'm Adam. We'll talk to you later.