Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/11: New York's Wacky Infields and Reader's Wacky Emails

Episode Date: January 11, 2019

We break down the latest moves that have made the Yankees and Mets' infields tough to figure out, plus the latest free agency news and your questions. Will Peter Alonso or Jeff McNeil get a chance to play? Who will start for the Yankees? Yasmani Grandal is the latest winner in free agency, and we answer your league strategy, lineup, and other questions in an extended mailbag section.  To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Heath's back on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. How's it going, Heath? It is fantastic. I really missed you guys the whole time I was gone. I was sad. I just sat there thinking, man, I wish I was with Scott and Chris. I mean, you sit right next to us. I know.

But you are with Scott White and Chris Towers here on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. On today's episode, we're going to catch you up on the latest news. Actually, some fairly significant signing, so there's stuff to talk about. And then we're going to finish off the show, probably the last half hour, just rapid fire through all your questions.

We've got a mailbag. So let's get going, but first, Heath. You just finished putting together your top 600 rotissory rankings. Finished is maybe the wrong word. You are in progress. It's a rough draft. I'm in the process of compiling 600 names of baseball players.

I believe all of them are on teams. No, almost certainly not. True. So what we want to do to start off the show, Adam Azor told me to do this. Adam said Heath's back. He's the most important person. Let's start with him. Exactly. What has stood out? What is one big thing that has stood out for you while you're building your rankings that we haven't talked about? Well, I'm just wondering, it's been so long since he's been on. Is there a segment of the audience that we actually have to introduce? Like, do we have to explain who Heath Cummings is?

Heath Cummings is a senior fantasy writer for CBSSports.com. I like beer. He likes beer. He worked on, he does football and baseball. He's done DFS stuff. He's done so much stuff. We're glad to have him back. We will be chasing dongs in the 2019 season. But he, let's answer the question after Scott so rudely interrupted me. Something that stood out for you while you were building your top 300.

And don't talk about the one we've been talking about in the office. Don't talk about the one thing that stood out to me. Because we'll get to that. So the one thing that stood out to me, I should not talk about that. I had an answer prepared. Like, you send notes. Okay. Hit the people.

I come up with answers. And then you say, don't talk about the one thing I know you've been preparing to talk about. Hit the people with the one thing. The relief pitcher position is so weird, depending on the format you're in. Sure. In Roto, it's absolutely dreadful. Terrible, awful. And I think it's very, it's going to be very important this year in Roto drafts to get someone that is definitely getting saves.

Because we may have like 10 or 12 teams where we don't know on a given night who's getting safe. And that number might be low. So I think there's 13, 14, maybe 15 closers that I feel really good about getting 30 saves this year, 25, 30 saves. I definitely won those guys. I might get two of those guys if the draft works out that way. The thing is, seven of those guys aren't going to get 30 saves for one. One reason or another. Maybe seven.

That seems a little high. Maybe five. Yeah, I mean, it's a different world because in the past, you might say there's 15 to 20, relievers who I feel good about getting saves, but you knew even the ones you didn't feel good about, somebody would emerge in that role for some bullpen. This is more a philosophical change across the league, led by teams like the Phillies and the Ray's, true bullpen committees, not just talk of them, but they're actually happening. So how many relievers can you trust to get a closer, a closer save total?

is, yeah, it may be less than two-thirds of the bullpins when all said and done. But on the other hand, in points leagues, I don't know that you have to worry about it at all because this may be the greatest spark year in the history of spark years. You've got Carlos Martinez, who is my number one RP in points leagues. I can understand if he's number two, number three, number four, somewhere in that range. But he's my number one in points leagues. You've got Tyler Glass now. You've got Kintamaieta.

You've got Colin McHugh. You've got Brad Keller. I mean, Brad Keller certainly belongs in a category with those three guys and a variety of others. So I don't think relief pitcher is going to be a problem in points leagues, especially since you only need two of them, and there's only 24 that are going to be rostered. It'll be fine. In Roto, it's a real, real problem. Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair.

And let's get into, we'll preview a debate that I'm sure will linger throughout the preseason because you always have to be different last year. you had Mike Trout third in Roto behind Trey Turner and Jose Altuve. Yeah, how'd that work out? Not well. Mean. And now, going into the 2019 season. I moved him up to number two.

He had a good year. Amazing. Yeah. He is not your number one player. I was looking at the Fantasypros.com consensus rankings. There's only 11 people who have rankings up for top 300s right now. None of them have Mike Trout lower than number one. None of them have Mookie bets lower than number two.

There is consensus. the top that you are breaking. Let's really think about this. If the entire industry agrees that one player is number one and one player is number two, how weird is it really to just flip? Extremely weird. When you're talking about 600 players and Mookiee-Beds was better last year and I could make an argument he's been better for the last three years.

You could make an argument, but it's interesting that you phrase it like that because I kind of feel like you're only making the argument just because you want to be different. You're being contrary to here. He's going to have 110 runs, 110 RBI. He's going to steal 25 to 30 bases. He's going to hit over 300. He is the second most likely to be the best player in baseball. Mike Trout's never the best player in baseball.

I mean, you are correct that Mike Trout has not been the number one player, I think, since 2014. Fair point. Thanks. I think Mookie Betz is the only player who has finished above him more than once. Has Mookie Betts been number one? I believe two of the last three years, yes. is the number one player over... So is it really weird to rank the number one player two of the last three years as the number one player? He is the number one player over the last three years overall. That being said, Mike Trout missed 50 games in 2017. It wasn't, it's not like it's been a recurring injury. It was a fluky injury. Mooky Betts could get hurt in the same way. And we've seen a bad season for Mooky Betts. Actually, we've seen two. Not that he was bad. He was still like a top 40 player. We saw an unlucky.

season in 2017. Sure. Be that as a man. We've never seen that for Mike Trout. There has literally never been a season where Mike Trout did not perform at a, at a standard that would put him in the discussion for the best player in fans. I think he's in the discussion. He's number two.

He can't miss. That is well within the discussion. That's what it ultimately comes down to. You can't, taking Trout first overall can never be a mistake. Never. I think, and this is maybe more of the point about Mookie Betts. I don't believe he was bad at all in 2017. I believe he was extremely unlucky,

and I don't have any concern that he repeats 2017. That's fair. That's fair. You're wrong, but it's fair. I'm wrong that he has... You think it was fluky, too. Well, and if you look at per game numbers as opposed to, because Trouts had...

Troutts missed more time than bets over the past few years, and maybe that does need to factor into the assessment to a degree. But if you look at per game production as opposed to total in numbers, the gap widens a little bit more. In fairness, in 2016 and in 2018, which I believe were the two years that Mookie Betts was the number one player in fantasy. Mike Trout played more games than Mookie Betts in both of those seasons. Sure. All right, let's move on. Let's move on.

We've gotten off to a heated start. Let's talk about some of the latest news, including one piece of news that broke literally, as we, we were sitting down for the podcast, DJ LaMayhew signs a two-year, $24 million deal with the Yankees, the cash-strap Yankees, of course. Where is he going to play? Second base. Where's Glaber Torres going to play? Shortstop.

Where's Troy Tolowiceky going to play? No. Doesn't need to. He's nuts. I mean, no, they signed him to start. Well, before they knew they could get DJ LaMayu. Yeah. I can't imagine they signed Troy Tolowiczki and they're going to bench him.

Just from the way they've talked about it, the way he's talked about it, you think they signed D. Delamehu for $24 million and they're going to binge him? I have, that's my, that's my question, is maybe Miguel And Duhar is the full-time DH. Giancarlo's stand plays more right field and maybe. So in that situation, Aaron Hicks is out? No, Brett Gardner. Okay. No, that's possible.

This is something that we're actually seeing with a lot of teams right now. It's a really weird, both New York teams for sure, they kind of have too many guys. They have, at the very least, they have a lot of guys that we would like to see play who just aren't going to. Well, that's kind of, you know, we talked about the philosophical change at the back end of games in terms of managing the bullpen, and there seems to be a philosophical change too. It's been going on a little longer, I think, in terms of setting a lineup. And really, the Dodgers have been kind of. kind of the leaders in this area of just doing more mixing and matching, having a lot of depth,

a lot of rotating parts. You know, the Astros have done a lot of that too. I suspect Troy Toulouitzky is going to play a fair amount, but I don't know that everybody is going to start every day in the same spot for many of the players. So here's the more relevant question for our purposes. where do you rank DJ Lemayhew after this move? It's a great lineup, but within the context of course field, I'm not sure it's that much better of a lineup than the Rockies.

They have a bad lineup, but where they play covers up for a lot of that. This is just a great lineup 162 times instead of 81. Sure, but is a weird player. Is DJ Lemayhew good? Yeah, I mean, it's a weird player coming out of a weird situation. That's... Because it's rare for a hitter in today's environment where everybody who's anybody is hitting 20 plus home runs,

it's rare for a hitter to fall short of 20 home runs, consistently, reliably, and still be a fantasy standout, the way LaMehue has been during the time with the Rockies. And what's made him that is how consistently he hits over 300. And a lot of that has been dependent on the Babbup inflating effects of course field that really aren't present in any other part.

376 Babbup in Coresfield for his career that has led to an 835 OPS, a 330 batting average, away from Coresfield, 264 with a 673 OPS, a 307 Babbup, so it's not like the Babbup was bad. I just wonder how, and throw this on top of it.

Chase Field has been arguably the second best hitters park for most of his career. He's played 102 games. games there. He's hit 314 there. So you have to imagine he's hit like 255. I want to know where he hits in the lineup because if you put DJ Lemayu first with Judge Hicks, Stanton, Sanchez behind him, then he's probably a top 10 second basement for me. But it would depend on him playing every day and does, well I do think while Torez, while D.D. Gregorius is out recovering from Tommy John's surgery, LeMayu probably will play close to every day.

some point, probably mid-season, Gregorius is coming back, and obviously he is, I think most people would argue he's a better player than LaMayhew. Unquestionably, I think. I don't know about unquestionably, but possibly. When you consider the defense he provides at shortstop a position that you don't, you wouldn't really expect LeMayhew to play at all, yeah, I think he would be a higher priority in the Yankees lineup than LaMayhew, but by that point, who knows what's going on? Right.

And do Armei have slumped his way out of it? of the lineup, considering how much of a defensive liability he is? This is the thing. They've given themselves a lot of insurance. And that's great for the Yankees. It's a really smart process, but it's not great for fantasy. Somebody's going to get left out. Maybe it's Troy Toulouitzky and he's not good enough to play every day anymore.

He's not. We don't know that. Like, he didn't play last year. He's not looked good enough to play every day since 2015. It's unlikely. but they went out and got him early. So second base is probably the thinnest position aside from catcher. Who catcher's a new position?

Prior to this, I had LaMayhew ranked the 9-10 range there, so a starter in a standard 12th team league. I would drop him behind, well, Brian Dozier now. Brian Dozier did sign a one-year deal with the nationals in the last 24 hours, so we'll talk about that shortly. I would keep him ahead. I would keep LaMayhew ahead of like Jonathan's scope, though. So he's now in that 12 to 14 range for me at second base. You're still drafting him probably in every league.

It's really funny because I had LaMayhew 15th, and I probably will move him up to around 13th. So I think we're going to be in the same place on DJ LaMayhew now. Took a roundabout way there. Yeah, stick a roundabout way there. All right, let's talk about some of the other signings. I don't think we'll have much to disagree with on this one. Brewer's signed Yasmani Grandal to a one-year deal. First of all, I love the fact that the brewers are actually going for it in a league.

where half the teams aren't. They've been aggressive over the last two off seasons, and that's great. This is also an amazing fit for Yasmani Grandal, who always has really interesting skills and hasn't quite put together a huge monster season, although he did hit, what, 26 home runs last year? His career high is 27, which he did, I believe, in 2016.

Yes. So, I mean, going to Miller Park, one of the most homer-friendly parks, it's not at all... Especially for left-handed hitters. It's not all a stretch to imagine him having a 30-homer season for a catcher. I think part of what's held him back in terms of fantasy production is the Dodgers and kind of their habit of mixing and matching so much. They did it behind the plate, too. There was always somebody else there who was good enough to deserve more than a backup share of the appearance. bats and that's kind of held

Grundahl back. That's not the case in Milwaukee. I feel like he is, it's not only going to a great park, but it's going to a situation where there's not anybody he has to look over his shoulder for. And I think both of those

are, could lead to a career season. J.T. Real Mutto, Gary Sanchez, they're clearly the top two at the position, but I think you can make the argument for Grand Dahl next. Wilson Contreras, Wilson Ramos are probably in that discussion as well. But I'm probably going to have Grandal fourth behind Real Muto, Sanchez, and Contreras.

There was an interesting tweet from Derek Cardi about the change from Dodgers Stadium to Miller Park and how Dodgers Stadium is one of the few parks that is a pitcher's park, but also good for home runs for our candid hitters. And so Dodgers Park's home run boosts 5% according to Cardi, Miller Park 13%. So it's still a boost, but it's maybe not quite the boost. I've got Grundahl 5th right now, and I don't disagree that he could be as high as third. I wouldn't be surprised to be finished third. All right. Let's move on.

You mentioned Brian Dozier, Scott. He signed a one-year deal with the Nationals. Expectation is he's going to play every day? Yeah, and I think that's the biggest part of this signing for me. Howie Kendrick was going to be him or... Howie Kendrick coming back from a torn Achilles, right? I don't think it was going to be him. Yeah.

It is not now. Wilmer Defoe. I mean, it wasn't going to be anybody good. So, yeah, it's clearly going to be Dozier. And that is the biggest aspect of this deal for me. Because you remember where he finished last season? He was coming off the Dodgers bench in the playoff and was maybe the last guy off the bench.

And deservedly so. It's worth noting. He was bad last year. He was bad, but... He had a knee injury. He did have a knee injury. The previous two years, come August 1st, we would probably have said he was having a bad season then

too. And so he never got the chance for that late surge with the Dodgers that we were used to seeing from Dozier, which may have contributed to the bad overall line also. But if you look at the bad of ball profile in terms of strikeout rate, line drive rate, he was doing the same thing he's always done. I think there's definitely potential for a bounce back here. Like I said, I'm moving LaMayhew behind Dozier now, so Dozier remains in my top 10, 12 even. But you know, this was a guy last year, he was, we were drafted in. I'm like round three, round four. So that's definitely somebody to gamble on.

You have Dozier behind Murphy? I do not. I do not have Dozier behind Daniel Murphy. I think the big thing with Daniel Murphy is he makes so much contact and he's playing in course field. Right. Like he was hitting 320 in Washington. Yeah.

And he got Murphy 7th. He's diminished for sure. But, or I mean, really it was like a bad month and a half last year when he was coming back from that knee injury. Once he got going, he was Daniel Murphy. He's just old. Yeah, there's risk, but Brian Dozier's old too. The thing is, Brian Dozier's not as old as I thought he was.

It was like 31. 31, 32. Like, Jed Lowry is 35. He's an old 31. Yeah. Well, Jed Lauer, that's another one, just signed a two-year deal with the Mets. What is the Mets starting lineup now? I feel like we're doing a second base preview with all these.

We're kind of breaking down the whole position. Yeah, the Mets starting lineup. Now, this is... I don't like it. Because, well, the initial. reaction among fantasy players especially, I think, was now, okay, now Jeff McNeil. Clearly there's no avenue for bats here. Or Peter Alonzo.

Well, you brought that up, yes. Obviously, those are two young players with, at least perceived to have high ceilings, who fantasy owners were excited to draft. And I don't think they're necessarily blocked by this move. Jed Lowry played a lot of third base for the athletics last year. Todd Frazier held the spot for the Mets there last year. year and, you know, he's clearly at the end of his rope. So it would be easy for them to just slot Lowry over Frazier at third base. They have Kenow at second, obviously. First base.

They stick Frazier over there until Peter Alonzo gets that extra year team control in mid-April. And I saw a tweet from a Mets beatwriter. Don't remember who it was, but there was a Mets beat writer They're talking about how the team is comfortable playing McNeil in the outfield. Basically, there are two lineup spots for Todd Frazier, Juan Lagaris, Kianne Broxton, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, Peter Alonso. They have six players for two spots. And to draft McNeil or Alonzo where they were going to go a week ago, you have to assume the Mets are going to give those two spots to those two players. I don't think you can take Jeff McNeil in the top 300 right now.

He's a reserve round guy. I think Scott wants to. I don't have, I don't believe I have Alonzo War McNeele on my top 300 right now. And I wouldn't expect Alonzo to be called up before the Super 2 deadline at this point. There's just, they have too many guys that, and being the Mets.

I think they're gonna- What do you mean by that specifically? They are historically, uh, concerned with the bottom line. Cheap. Sure. Yes. And so Scott, Scott, I think Scott has a different,

Look, if it was up to me, they wouldn't have traded for J.D. Davis. They wouldn't have. Well, why are we reserving a lineup spot for J.D. Davis? He's an Astros cast. McNeil was an impact player in the majors last year. He himself can play third base if you don't want Lowry there. That's another. Lowry is starting.

It's just another body. They give Lowry enough money. Well, they could stick Canoe at first base and Lowry at second. I think it's, right. We all agree. Again, there's, there's not as clear of a path for Alonzo and McNeil, but if you trust that talent finds away, I mean...

Are they both in your top 300? It's the Mets. Yes. But like last round pick? Yeah, I mean, they weren't... They were late rounders in mixed leagues even before this. I'm upset. I'm upset with the Mets.

I don't like what they're doing. I don't... I think there will be someone else who's willing to take a chance that they'll get playing time. Sounds like it will be Scott in our drafts. Maybe. And I just, I don't think,

especially with McNeil, I don't think the upside is worth having a guy who might only start three times a week on your bench. Like, he looked really good last year. He took a big step forward in the minors, but we're also talking about a very, very, very, very limited track record of high-level success, even in the minors. A couple more news items. Alex Bregman underwent surgery to remove loose bodies

and his right elbow will be delayed for the start of spring training, expected to be ready for the start of the regular. season the team announces, but certainly makes them more risky, right? I mean, this is a fairly minor procedure. It's an arthroscopic procedure, so they're not like making a big incision.

Obviously, I'm a doctor, so. It's probably not going to really lead to anything in terms of altering his production. It's going to lead to angst. Yeah, it's just, it's just that. It was already, I feel like I was already fighting

an uphill battle in terms of convincing people he needs to be a first round pick. He needs to, I have him ahead of Mani Machado, at least prior to this news. He needs to go ahead of Machado. It's going to be harder to make that case with that seed of doubt in there. Yeah, I don't think today I could take him in the first round. By the time we're actually doing real drafts and he's doing baseball activities,

then yeah, I'd probably take him in the first round. But today I don't think I could. I had him ninth overall this morning. All right. White Sox signed Calvin Herrera to a two-year deal. Assume he's the closer over Alex Colome? If he's back. Assume a battle.

If he's healthy from the List Frank surgery, which he had last season, this is a guy who, for quite a few years, has been one of the best relievers in baseball. That's been the story. I thought I was supposed to be the Royals homework. I mean, it's a factual statement.

I mean, he is more often than not averaged less than a strikeout per inning, which is close to unacceptable for late-inning reliever. Now, obviously, he was great with the Royals when he was the seventh inning guy. Like, you didn't worry so much about it then. But as a closer, I've had my doubts about him as a closer even before last year. His ratios have been worse since he's been a closer, right? That's been my perception. He had one really high strikeout season.

I mean, look, he has a 268 ERA over the last five years with a 1.1.1. He's had an ERA at 275 or below. He'll get a chance. He'll get a chance. It's going to be him or Colome. And he may even be the favorite. I just think Colomé is probably better. All right.

Let's run through some of the other news. Rangers added Shelby Miller on a one-year deal. He only threw about 18 innings last season, and they were pretty horrific. But, you know. He fits in well on the Rangers pitch and stuff. Still throws really hard. Maybe he can figure something out.

Obviously not someone you're drafted. maybe not someone you're ranking inside your top 500. We missed Michael Brantley signing with the Astros. It's a good landing spot for him. Yeah. Where do you guys have him ranked?

Now, this is the one that makes me mad. Because now... Well, it makes you mad. I've got Kyle Tucker on my dynasty team. There you go. I mean, Kyle Tucker has nothing more to prove in the minors by every rank list you'll find out there.

He is an elite outfield prospect. it seemed like his time to shine, and now there's not an opening for him. It's Springer and center, Reddick and Wright, Michael Brantley and left. Now, D.H. with Evan Gaddis gone, with Marwin Gonzalez out of the picture. You know, right now it looks like Tyler White

is going to have a big role there, and maybe he doesn't measure up in the long run. I think Tucker could, and maybe I'm wrong, but I think Tucker could win a job in the spring. what he's done in the minor leagues, his pedigree. But it's just Reddick or DH, right? It's just Reddick or DH. Yeah.

And Reddick's been good. It would probably be rotate each of the outfielders at DH. It wouldn't be bad to give Springer a day at DH like three times a week. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, you could still see a path opening up for Tucker down the line, but I don't think that's going to be, like, I don't think there's any chance he wins a job in the spring. It's going to have to happen later. All right.

Madison Bumgarner is reportedly a trade candidate. He's a free agent at the end of this season. The Brewers have been reported as the most likely team to land him. Something to keep an eye on. It wouldn't help his value. No. No, going to the Brewers certainly would not help. Because his strike rate has fallen over the last two years.

Injuries have played a part in that. But Oracle Park, now Oracle Park in San Francisco, has been one of... If not. They changed it from Pack Bell. One of, if not the best. Do you want to call it Enron Field still? No, that was Houston. Sorry, guys.

But Oracle Park is one of, if not the best pitchers park in baseball. Milwaukee, like we said earlier, one of the toughest places to pitch. Extreme venue change. But the thing is, even if Bumgarner stays in San Francisco, like, I'll just, I'll throw it out there now. He's one of my bus picks for this year. I could see the bottom completely falling out for him. He hasn't been the same since having that dirt bike incident.

It's not just the strikeout rate that's gone down, the swinging strike rate, the velocity. The walks suddenly jumped last year. Like, this looks like a precipitous decline for a pitcher who has a ton of innings on that arm. But he's just so young. He doesn't really have that many innings compared to the, he doesn't have that many innings compared to, like, Justin Verlander.

Well, but. Like half. In a shorter span of time, it's an old, it's an old 29 or whatever he is. Yeah, I think the 29. I think the other point is he wasn't, he was definitely on the periphery of the ace discussion, especially 2016 when he took his game to another level. But he was never squarely in that conversation. Did you see him in the playoffs, Chris?

No. Do you play fantasy baseball on the playoffs? Do you see him in the playoffs? Do you play fantasy baseball in the playoffs? I think that might be a mischaracterization. He was never on the level of a Clayton Kershaw. He was never in the discussion for number one overall pitcher. But he was consistently in the top five to top 10 range of the starting pitcher rankings.

But a lot of that was reliability innings. We don't have that anymore. We don't. Jimmy Nelson expects to be ready for the start of the season. Gregory Polanco cleared to swing off a T, but he does not expect to be back for the first two months. He says before June, that's different than the initial timetable we were given, but maybe he's making better progress coming back from that shoulder injury.

Late round pick to stash in your reserves? Oh, for sure, yeah. I think he's not a reserves pick for me in that type of sense. He's in my top 250 for sure because he could be a top 20 outfielder once he's healthy. It's a lot like Michael Conforter last year except the timetables pushback. White Sox signed John Jay. good for them. They're very thirsty in their pursuit of Mani Machado.

And C.C. Sabathia has been cleared to resume his off-season workout regimen. He was diagnosed with a heart issue a couple weeks ago, so that's a great sign. Might make it more likely that the Yankees trades Sunny Gray. So that's something to keep an eye on because I think we all want Sunny Gray to get out in New York. No one more so than Adam Azor, I would assume. Yeah, I don't care where Sunny Gray goes. All right. All right, let's get to the mailbag.

As always, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com is the way you can reach us. And the mailbag, you know, at this point in the year, most of them are keeper emails. I trust that you found enough emails where we have no keeper emails. No, there are a couple. We might not get to them, but there are a couple. But maybe later on, before Adam comes back, because he especially hates the keeper emails, Maybe later on we'll do a keeper specific episode, talk about Scott's Keeper rankings, his prospects, everything like that.

So keep your heads on, guys. First email from Jay, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts, strategies, and considerations when participating in a Kentucky Derby-style draft preferences league. I find this so interesting because I've never done one. Heath, have you ever done one? I've never heard the term before. Sure. But you've done one.

Yeah, you've basically drafting. draft order. Yes. So you pick names out of a hat, whoever comes first, gets the first pick for the draft slot. And the non-auctioning. You're taking the number one pick, right? No. I haven't. I haven't. It depends on what the specific player pool. Like, there's no consensus number one player, so why would you take the number two? Last year, I had the second pick for the Tao Wars 15 team online draft league. And the consensus, number two pick was Jose Al-Tuva. The first pick took Mike Trout. Okay, so that wasn't an option for me. Maybe I would if it was. But the consensus number two pick was Jose Al-Tuva. Instead, I picked

something like 10th or something because I wanted to make sure I got one of Scherzer, Sayle, and Kluber. And me, me kind of calculating which hitters I expected to go in the same range as those pitchers, the latest I could pick in the first round and still get one of those pitchers back in the second round was, was kind of, well, it was available to me, but so was Charlie Blackman in round two. So you got to grab Charlie Blackman. Yeah, I ended up taking Charlie Blackman instead. But yeah, and so it just depends on what the player pool. This year, if we're talking about this year, I haven't given it. Basically, what's a better place to pick right now? The top of the draft, the middle of the draft, or the bottom. I know it seems like

a stupid question, but I don't think it's a stupid question. There can be a drop-off from 15 to 24. It just feels like an early question. I think if I had the first pick, I would take pick Trout at one. And if you got the first pick in the Kentucky Derby style draft, you would pick number one. And yes, I would choose the first pick. If I got the second pick, I might choose third because, I don't know. How much of a difference? How confident am I in Jose Ramirez versus Mookie Betz?

Jose Ramirez was, I think, the best player in fantasy last year. I thought Mugie Betz was. It might be points versus Roto thing, but they were both, they were in the same range. Hosey Ramirez was fourth last season in Rhodes. No good at all. Don't know why you're taking him in the top three. Who was third? J.D. Martinez.

Oh, J.D. Martinez. Christian Yelich was number two. No, Mike Trout, Heath. You are vindicated once again. Yep. Yep. All right. You want to say more? No. I think there's a clear tier of three among hitters at the top of drafts,

and you want to be in that tier if you can. I think Francisco Indoor is in that tier too. Bill from Central Kentucky usually plays in head-to-head categories league. His main league is switching to head-to-head points. Can you name a few players who are significantly more valuable in one format versus the other? It's a question we get all the time. Let's say a name besides Carlos Santana. That's the biggest one.

This is the same thing you did to me earlier. I had a name already to jump on. and there you go. But anybody who's listening to this, we probably mentioned that once an episode. I think starting pitchers are more valuable in head-to-head points than head-to-head categories almost universally. Guys who walk a lot, guys who strike out a little, guys who get a lot of extra base hits that aren't home runs, those are who you're looking at.

Anthony Rizzo. Anybody who has like a one-to-one strike-out-to-walk ratio like that is a... And this year, relief pitcher is going to be a lot different if it's a league where you're If it's a head-to-head league where you can use Sparps versus a Categories league where you can't, that will make a huge difference in the relief pitcher market. All right, Jeff from Cedar Rapids. Thinking about 2019, this guy is a strong post-type sleeper. We debated him a ton last preseason.

I know last year wasn't what everyone hoped for, but Jeff says he was overvalued. I agree with Jeff. This year, I'm thinking Jose Barrios is extremely undervalued. Your thoughts? Oh man, this guy, Jose Berrios, there is probably not a player who has made me tear out more of my hair than him over the past two years because I was...

You called him an ace. He did exactly what I expected. He did exactly what I expected him to do last year. Going into last season, he was on my bus list, I was with Chris. He was getting drafted in, like, the top 60 last year. And then he became a more efficient pitch. pitcher. He became a better strikeout pitcher and looked like an ace for the first four months of the season. And Chris and I had a heated debate. Who's better between Jose Barrios and Jameson Tione?

I made a fool of myself in the debate and made a fool of myself in the ultimate outcome because Berrios just kind of crashed and burned from there. So I initially was very pessimistic in my ranking. It may have been a sour grapes thing when I was putting together these rankings at the start of the off season. I have since come to my senses enough to move him. head of Zach Wheeler, Mike Fultenevich, Masahiro, Tanaka. He wasn't as good as any of them last year. But I think the upside is clear. He wasn't.

Certainly not on per game basis. I have the numbers right here in front of me. Per game, I believe. But I have him 27th. One spot behind Jameson Tayawn. I believe I have he and James and Tion back to back as well. I have one spot of head of James and Tion because I'm not going to get up that easily. But I expect you're going to get a pitcher that throws around 200 innings.

strikes out 210 hitters. Hopefully he wins a few more games, but he's good. Maybe he's not an ace. Maybe he's not great, but he's a very good starting pitcher. He's the kind of frustrating pitcher that the only thing you can really say about him, whether you like him or not, is he's inconsistent. He kind of, okay, he's inconsistent on a start-to-start basis. The last two years, ERA 389-484, FIPP, 384-390.

Like, he's a high-3s-R-A guy that should strike out about a batter per inning. But you can talk yourself into him when he's good. That's what I mean. You can talk yourself out of him when he's bad. Take the full season. If it's like a best ball, I know you love best ball dress. I do. Probably for this reason.

Because you know what week is going to be good. When you say, okay, an inconsistent guy, oh, you know where his numbers are going to end up. Well, you don't know where his numbers are going to end up when you're going through it. That's what makes it hard. Because you're setting a lineup every week. You're making ad drop. Like he is he is somebody who I'm afraid is going to fake me out and and there's an actual baseball reason for it. It's not just the results.

He has had consistent issues with command more so than control. He throws enough strikes. There's a difference between the two. But when he is not locating his fastball as precisely as he's able to, it leads to a lot of home runs. All right, moving on Dan in Toronto. About a year ago, people were talking by Kenley Jansen as the next Mario, Mario, Bruno Rivera, specifically, experts were saying he looks like the kind of reliever who could continue to dominate well into his mid to late 30s. This year, it seems as though that narrative

has completely disappeared. How should we view Jansen going forward, both for 2019 and for dynasty purposes? He was not bad in 2019 or 2018, but he wasn't himself. And several, like multiple health scares. And there's, there's reason for that. I think he had a hip injury in spring training that he didn't, he didn't throw at all in spring training. He came out. Velocity was way down. Way down. It recovered. Not all the way. A little bit. But yeah. Not all the way. For the most part, for most of the season, he was throwing about what you would have expected. And for the most part, he was great. He was, he was an all-star closer, just not a best closer and baseball-type closer. I think you should view him as a top-five closer this year. And,

like, if you're walking over the next three to five years, I'd view him as a top-10 closer. I mean, it's just hard for, it's hard to say exactly how much of the drop-off was a skills decline and how much of it was impacted the result of these outside variables. Had the, what was it, regular heartbeat a couple times? If I'm going to invest big in a closer, I'm going to do it before it gets to Jansen. I'm going to do it on Edwin Diaz, Blake Trinan, Craig Kimbrill, or a role this Chapman. And at that point, I'm going to just accept that I'm going to have to take a less reliable closer because I think Jansen himself is a less reliable closer now.

And as far as Dynasty goes, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time on that. But if you're competitive right now, Kenley Janssen has a lot of value. If you're tanking, I don't know if there's such a thing as a good closer for Dynasty. If your team's not good right now, Because it's such a fungible position. Part of what made Mariano Rivera so incredible was that he was just always good forever. And relief pitchers, with the exception of, like, Craig Kimbril. I mean, the very top guys have been surprisingly,

reliable. And we haven't, we've never really seen relievers. Prior to the Kimbril, Chapman, Janssen group, we've never seen relievers with dominance stats. I mean, that's like best ever type stuff. Well, even Edwin Diaz, would it, like, if he goes back to what he was before last year, he's Kenley Jansen last year. Well, I was actually going to say...

It depends which. 2017, he wasn't that great. 2016, when he made his debut, he was incredible. He was unhitable. DRA was a little high, but... Given that Diaz is 25, I believe, and he is putting up the Kimbril Chapman ratios that we used to never see in baseball, and yet it's carried those two so far,

I think if there's, I think Diaz is maybe the one reliever who I would want to invest in as a long-term closer in a dynasty league. He may be the only one though, because even Trinnan, whose numbers were similar last year. I mean, he's, he's on the wrong side of 30. And he's, you know, one year at this level. Yeah. Next email from Chris, Sid, Stinky Pete, and Lato, as well as to be determined. Do you guys know who those are? Are they from Toy Story 2?

No, they are the bad guys in each toy story. In each toy story, okay. Yeah, Sid. Okay, yeah. Is that a new toy story coming? Yes. Oh. I believe the new character is a spork with, like, what are the little, like, tube cleaners?

What are this called? Pipe cleaners? Okay. And he's having an existential crisis about whether he's actually a toy. It looks delightful. Chris writes. What in the world is wrong with us? Chris is in a 17-team Roto League standard 5-by-5 scoring.

He believes it's time to start giving middle relievers some love, as their importance has evolved the last few years. We've talked about that a lot already on today's show. Things going from saves to holds is lending middle relievers too much weight. However, what do you think of holds plus two-time saves? Or how about half-holds plus saves? I mean, yeah, that's half-done. I think that would be much.

Literally half-done less than one. That would be the way I would like to go. I think that some sort of accommodation should be made for the way the game is changing. They are, even without this, very beneficial in terms of ratios. Most of them, if they're really good, help you in ERA. They help you in WIP. But when it's not a head-to-head categories league and it's the full season long, their 60 or 65 innings don't help that much.

And they do have a big impact on the game. 17-te team league? I think the elite middle relievers, having played in a 15-team Roto League. Well, they're used. You're starting multiple, probably. Yeah, you're starting multiple. And I think that it kind of takes care of itself.

And I think even beyond that, even if you're talking about Shalor League, even if you're talking about a head-to-head points league, I think there's going to be kind of a natural solution to the way the game is changing. We were talking about it before the podcast. The Brewers have three excellent closing in Canada. It's three potentially elite closers. And I don't know, I don't know that any one of them will be the guy all year. I think Josh Hader will always be in the mix, but he's the least likely to be the guy.

Jeremy Jeffers, Corey Kenebill, I can see them swapping them off again. And yet, if they're all three getting 15 saves, because there are so few relievers out there who are getting 30, they probably are going to be startable. It's kind of the same thing with David Robertson. He's going to be startable in every format, even if he only ends up with 20 saves. Yeah. Because there's probably going to be a lot. Talk about frustrating on a week-to-week basis, though. Sure, sure.

Very much. Yeah, if you're playing in season-long roto, it's easier to stomach that. All right, next one, I didn't put the name in, sorry. But keep two. And I think this is an interesting one. Jimmy Nelson, Lance McCullors, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nemo, or Roberto Ozuna. And I get Lance McCullors out this season, but how do you view him going forward long term? I assume this is the end of your keepers.

Like you're keeping a lot of other players, and these are your last two. It does, it matters a lot. Okay. Because, like, I would probably,

I'm keeping in Fordo. Over an Emma. Over an Morrow. Okay. And I, Man, for this year, it's Ozuna.

I think Ozuna might be the number one closer this year. Ozuna might be the second most keepable closer, long term. Sure. I just, I want to throw us some love. for Jimmy Nelson. He was so good in 2017. He had like three months out of his entire career. He was awesome. His whole 2017 was very good. His final numbers were borderline ace like. He was great.

Injured his shoulder running the bases. May not ever be the same, but I'm very interested in drafting him. Oh, the last round? Sure. Just to see. I'd take him over Jeff McNeil. David writes in, enough with the Matt Kemp disrespect. Get him on the Blue Jays. Let him DH. 30 bombs 100 batted in. Tell me I'm wrong. I'm sure that you're right. As soon as they introduce him to the white towel guy, he'll do exactly that.

He's a guy who could really use a DH. Yeah. He's a DH. Yeah. And now he's on the red, so there's no DH. Where do you guys have him ranked this year? That's a good question. He just said enough with the Matt Kemp disrespect.

Now you want us to say where we have Matt Kemp ranked? I have him... I want to know if Matt Kemp's being disrespectful. 71st. I have between 75 and 80. I mean, if he's playing for the... Enough with the Matt Kemp disrespect guys. If he's playing for the Reds, it means Jesse Winker isn't.

And there's no way that's... I have Jesse Winker two spots ahead of him. Really? Wow. He's coming back from a shoulder injury. I don't know for sure. I'm afraid they're going to be a platoon. I would rank him higher.

It won't last long if they do. Yeah, I would rank him higher. is who he looked like he was becoming last year. I'm 37. I think if Kemp plays every day only against lefties, and he's going to have remarkable numbers. They're not going to want to stop doing that because he's going to be hitting 400.

That's another team that has too many guys in the outfield, potentially. Jake in Atlanta, 12-team Dynasty League. We're allowed to keep up to three players. If we only get two back, we get a pick in the third round, one pick, you keep one, get a pick in the second and third, et cetera. He's definitely keeping Lindorne judge. The question is, does he keep Chris Bryant

or let go and try to get another player in the third round? I'd let go. You're down on Chris Bryant. You said in our most recent podcast, Heath wasn't here and probably didn't download it. Thanks for helping the numbers, Heath. I download every podcast that we do automatically. My phone is.

This question is, Oh, Scott said the other day, he thinks we've seen the best of Chris Bryant. How do you feel about that? That's what you said. That is an exact quote. I think we may have seen the best of Chris Bryant. That's different from saying, I think we've seen the best of Chris Bryant. I might have Chris Bryant lower than Scott in my top 300.

Wow, where do you have him? 47. I don't have it pulled up, but... Round four. That sounds like where I happen. That's interesting. Neither of you guys is going to end. end up drafting Chris Bryant this year doesn't sound like.

I don't know. I don't know. What's the industry consensus? You have that handy or no? 27. 27. Okay. Neither of you is drafting Chris Bryant.

It's early. It's only 11 experts rank. It's not because I think I can sit in the best of Chris. It's not because I can sit here and with confidence say something is wrong with Chris Bryant. He's not good anymore. I think there's a very strong chance. He has a bounce back.

MVP caliber. season. It's just there's enough uncertainty with coming off the season that was clearly sidetracked by a shoulder injury that clearly wasn't addressed at any point with some type of surgery or something. I don't know what he's coming into health-wise. And for a first, second, even third-round pick, that's too much risk for me. Agreed. Dear Chris, Scott, and Keith. What my favorite things you guys do. See, they don't know who you are anymore. So grumpy today.

Dear Chris, Scott, and Keith. Keep Tray Turner in the first, in the last round for one more year. Ronald O'Cunia in the seventh round for three more years. Blake Snell in the 17th round for three more years. Or Vlad Jr. in the last round for three more years. What is the last round? How many rounds are there? Let's call it 23.

Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. It's a lot of options. Well, not Turner. Blake Snell. I think you throw Snell out, actually. I don't think I'm keeping him. I think I'm keeping Vlad.

I hate to give him a Bacuania or... You're saying don't keep Blake Snell because pitchers are so unreliable. And then you're keeping a player that has not played in the major leagues. Blake Snell played over his head last year. He was not much. He was maybe a little. I mean, his ERA was like a run lower than his fifth. Yes, but if you raise his ERA a run, he's still an ace.

I think. there's a very good chance I won't be drafting Blake's now this season. You won't end drafts with me because you have to take him in the second round of yeah. I think too many people are going to take him really high and I get it. He had a won something. He was awesome, yes. Like you could have a 330 ERA and still be an A's probably.

How confident are we that he's just fixed his control problems? And not just control, command problems. Because he doesn't throw in the strike zone. He had one of the lowest in zone's strike rate or pitch rates last year. I see bigger risks, certainly with somebody like Straussberg, an injury risk guy, certainly. Sure, but even throwing them out. I see bigger risks with Aaron Nola. Why?

Because he had both home run and Babbittluck last year. Okay. I see bigger risk with Patrick Corbyn. It was going to go later, I understand. But, I mean, Patrick Corbyn's had exactly as many good seasons as Blake Snow. Actually, more. Right. But you look at the projection.

You look at what makes. it good you know it seems like Patrick Corbyn thrived on a gimmick which was a really good trick yeah and look I've we've done two mock drafts I think I drafted Corbin in both so it's not like I'm down on him I'm just saying my point getting it back to Snell is that you could make a case against all of these guys being drafted in the same range to answer your question I feel confident that he has mastered his control issues he mastered his control issues in Triple Way for the most to the extent that he had last year.

He had a walk per nine pretty similar to the 3.2 he was at last year, and he can be an absolute ace at 3.2. And he's still young enough and experienced enough that if that does come up a little bit, I think he can get better to other things. All right. Jake from Salt Lake City, Jeff Troy and Abbott, anybody got that one? You guys are losers. It's community.

Never watched community. How come nobody is talking about Aaron Hicks? He finished last season with 27 homers and 11 steals and only 137 games with an OPS, about 830. And that was with a 264 Babbup. Are we overlooking him? Is there the possibility that he can turn into a top 25 outfielder, non-based percentage leagues?

And I'll add on top of that, top 25 in average. Wasn't he last year? Wasn't he a top 25 outfielder? Do you have ranked in the top 25 now? I don't. I don't. I have 32nd. He was the number 62 overall player.

Yeah, probably about top 25. Yeah, I've got him 44. He was somebody who when I pulled up the season-to-date stats, I was always shocked at how high he ranked. He's really good. The reason I don't rank him higher is really a matter of trust for me. You could say, okay, he had bad Babbitt luck last year, but prior to last year, he profiled as a low Babb Bip guy.

He was a poor line drive hitter. And given that, given that really last year was the first year the Yankees made him a full-timer, there's always a chance they pull back on that, particularly now that they have this glut of infielders that could impact the outfield. They got Clint Frazier hanging around still. It's just a trust thing for me.

He's been really good two years in a row, though. It is. Yeah, but. Walks a ton, doesn't strike out that much. That's always been true. But look at his line drive rate last year. It was like 13%. Line drive is dreadful.

Line drive is very bad. No, it just fluctuates a lot more than most other stats year to year. But does his? It's just almost always low, isn't it? I closed his fan grass page. It's almost always low, just like I said. Last year was kind of an exception as far as that goes. And look, I'd be happy with him as my third outfielder,

but I don't want to draft him as my second outfielder. Brett in New Jersey, dear Nick, Drew, Carson, and Tassum. Heath, I assume you've got this one. Those seem like quarterbacks. Yeah. Tayson. I don't know who Drew is. Oh, Breeze?

Who's Tayson? Oh, these are the Eagles and New Orleans Saints. Taysom Hill. He is the quarterback that the Saints bring in when they want to run trip plays. A lot of really stupid stuff. It's really terrible. It's really dumb. I don't watch much NFL this past year, so.

All right. Brett in New Jersey, he's going pitcher early this year. He never has before. By the end of the fourth round, he'd like to have two top 20 pitchers. But he's nervous. In this group, he has some concerns. He worries about the age and work. for Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander,

where he's about sales repeated late-season workload issues, including obviously massive drop in velocity when he came back from that shoulder issue. Kershaw's injury history, Snell's previous control issues, apparently we're not worried about that. Severino's weird second half of the season. So he asked, how do I minimize risk when taking pitchers early? Don't want to spend an early round pick on a pitcher who underperforms or gets hurt,

because let's face it, they often do. Well, the hitters you'd be drafting in the same range, you could point to scary things about all of them. Trevor Story. That was who I was going to first. John Carlos Stanton, Charlie Blackman. Andrew Benintending's second half last year. Javier Baez. Christian Yelich has only, he's done it for exactly as long as Blake Snell has in terms of being an elite player.

Even like Juan Soto had a crazy high ground ball percentage for the amount of power he produced. I'm not, I don't know that he's a slam dunk elite player. So there's risk. There's risk. There's risk everywhere. I think you can minimize risk by being a little more selective about which pitchers you draft. Like, I am probably not going to draft Clayton Kershaw at all. I know I rank them in this range.

But you should rank them lower. Well, this is the tough thing about starting pitcher is the guys who don't have any question marks as far as performance. or injury are really old. That's a really hard thing to get around. It's like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, if you just go by track, and even Corey Kluber, you just go by track record, those guys have just been awesome for like three years in a row

for Verlander and four years in a row for Scherzer and Kluber and seven years. What I would say is if you want to take two pitchers in the first four rounds and you want to minimize risk, take two hitters and then two pitchers. Yeah. That makes sense. You're not limiting the risk on the pitchers, but you're limiting the risk on your investment. The hitters in the first two rounds are pretty safe, yeah.

And I've struggled, because I've trended more toward drafting pitchers early over the past couple seasons as well. But part of my struggle when putting together the rankings this season is I feel like there is as big of a drop-off at hitting, Like, there's a big drop-off at both after, you know, round two or three. So I haven't quite figured out how I'm going to navigate that. But that, I kind of like that because the kind of pitchers going in round four, I think the gap between them and the round two pitchers is maybe a little smaller

than the round two and round four hitters, certainly in terms of reliability. All right, we're going to close out this email show with two emails that are 100% in Heath's wheelhouse. Absolutely, wonderful. One's about beer. One's about being mean to your friends. Okay, great. We'll start with Ricky,

dear Job, Buster, and Michael. You guys know what that is, right? Oh, my God. I know what that is. Okay, okay. All right, it's a rest of development, Heath. Watch it. It's on Netflix.

I'm in a highly competitive, 12-team Keeper Points League with my buddies. We're entering our 10th year. They're flying in from around the country to do a live draft together. There is one team, who flat out embarrasses himself every year. He's the only team to never finish in the money.

Ricky's been accused of going over the line with trolling. Same. Quote, in my opinion, when you are this bad, no trolling is off limits. What is the proper amount of trolling allowed when one team is so inferior to the others and is the laughing stock of the league? The proper amount of trolling allowed is always determined by the person being trolled.

Sure. And this is a group of friends. You could troll me as much as you want, and I'm not going to get offended or stop being your friend or drop out of the league. But this guy may have a line that's different than yours. I would troll him all the way up to that line, cross that line, then apologize and step it back just one step. Not too far.

Keep trolling him. But you have to cross the line to find out where the line is. I think you'll never know. You might leave trolling on the table. Full disclosure. I trolled the commissioner of one of my fantasy football leagues so much that he quit the league. See, Chris found the line. As someone who doesn't consider himself a troll on any level, really,

I do think it's worth pointing out that in this particular situation, for the good of the competitiveness of the league, if it's already determined that there's no way you're going to be able to push this guy out of the league, that's not a way to solve the problem. problem is to just get rid of them, then you kind of have to do this for the good of the league. So that he quits? No. So because you're stuck with him, right?

If it's, you know, a family member or somebody who you know you can't get rid of, you're stuck with him, then the only way, and you know the only way to get him to give even a half-hearted attempt is to needle him constantly, you kind of have to do that for the good of the league, I feel like. Yeah, for sure. You're doing a service. All right. Last email.

Dear Matt, Case, Tom, and Mitchell. Those are the last four quarterbacks, the Eagles have beaten in the playoffs. So we're the last calendar year? It says it right there in the email. I read it. This is a question mainly for Heath. I'm offended. I'm a beer guy, too.

Can you assign a beer style, Pilsner, pale ale, etc. To some of the remaining unsigned star free agents, Harper, Machado, Kimbril, etc. I'm going to give you, I'm going to go through and give you the free agents. Okay. It started the top, though. Yeah, Bryce Harper. He is a nice barrel-aged porter because that is the best beer, but it doesn't match everyone's taste.

It's a good answer. Mani Machado. I would call him a full-bodied stout, outstanding also. The only problem with a stout is sometimes they taste a little cheap because there's not quite enough effort put into them. A.J. Pollock. That was the extent of what I... I would say that he is like...

German beer, because I don't know for sure what I'm going to get out of it if I like it or not. That might be more of a sour. I don't like sour. Oh, okay. Yeah, you can scroll on the list and I'll tell you what's a sour. Carlos Gonzalez is a sour for you. Carlos Gonzalez is definitely a sour. Dallas Keikle.

Dallas Keikle is a Pilsner. He's very solid. There's nothing spectacular. Craig Kimbril. Craig Kimbril is an IPA. just absolutely fantastic at his job. All right. That was fun.

It was fun. All right. Thanks for listening, guys. Thanks, Scott. Thanks, Heath. Welcome back, Heath. It was great to be here. Great to have you.

We'll be back with two more episodes next week. Probably going to do two more episodes the entire time Adam Azers out because we love you guys so much. Two more episodes per week while Adam. Two more episodes. Two more until he's back. Yes. Thank you. Until then, see you next week.

Thanks for listening.