Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/15: Can the 2019 Breakouts Do it Again? And our Thoughts on the CHEATING SCANDAL! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 15, 2020

CBSSports.com Baseball Writer Matt Snyder hops on to talk about the big news around baseball. Matt gives his take on the sign stealing, the suspensions, the firings, the fines and more. We also discuss if we should downgrade the key HOU hitters in Fantasy ... Back to the Fantasy Baseball news (21:05), let's talk about Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano and Alex Wood! ... Last year's surprise studs don't seem to be getting much love in the early 2020 ADP. We look at 10 players (27:45) including Ketel Marte, Marcus Semien, D.J. LeMahieu, Nelson Cruz and Trey Mancini and discuss when they should be drafted ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. All right, very much looking forward to today's show as we have a special guest. And then later, Scott and I are going to talk about the players who were total studs last year

who are not getting that fantasy baseball respect right now based on average draft position. It is Wednesday, January 15th. I'm Adam Azor. Hey, Scott White. Scott is drinking something right now. Yeah, you come in mid-swallow. He was taking a sip of water there. So that's good.

That's nice. And hey, who's on the show today? We got Matt Snyder, one of our baseball writers for CBS Sports. You know, every now and then, something comes along in baseball that can put fantasy on hold for just a minute. So, Matt, we wanted to bring you on to talk about those darn cheaters. How you doing, Matt? I'm good. I'm honored to be a special guest.

Well, that was me, right. I'm the special guest, so I'm very honored to have that. We have someone totally different coming later. That's even more special. You're just the regular guest. Is this Matt's first time on the show? I feel like it's the first time I've been on the show. I've been on with Azer before.

I think this is the first time on fantasy baseball today with you at the very least. Okay. So, yeah, I wanted to spend about 10 minutes on this Astros, Red Sox thing. and two managers and a GM getting fired and an owner who, you know, in Jim Crane, who, you know, didn't seem there were some too harsh consequences. But Matt, why don't just give us your overall take on the situation? We'll start with that. I was glad that they came down with the fine because until you start hitting the owners in the pocketbooks,

so they don't have much incentive to really change. $5 million is a relative drop in the bucket for Jim Crane. but that was the maximum amount Major League Baseball could find. So to go to the max, you could tell Crane was mad because he fired both of his guys who helped lead him

to a World Series title. He went back and he said he told him to cut it out. It seems like there was a lot of shadiness that just needed to be unpacked and it seems like we're starting to unpack that. The Red Sox firing Cora seems like it's a continuation of that.

I expect Major League Baseball to come down hard on out with Cora because he was involved in both. Yeah. That's back-to-back-stained titles, different teams. It looked like he kind of took some of the things he learned with the Astros to the Red Sox.

So he's staying two World Series in a row for different franchises. That's a big deal. And I also think it's a big deal to start to get it cleaned up. So I commend, I've been hard on Rob Manfred on a lot of different things. So I have to be fair on this front and say, I think he's trying to get out as much as he can in front of this. And so far, I think he's doing a good job. Scott, what's your overall take? Well, I'm interested on something Matt just said.

starting to unpack it. Obviously, MLB came down, and then Jim Crane came down even harder on Jeff Luno and AJ Hinch, ultimately firing them. And between that and the one-year suspension, it's hard to imagine they're going to have high-profile jobs in baseball, at least for the foreseeable future. So what they got hit for was the 2017 situation with the, the, the, banging on the trash cans to signal when pitches were coming based on the signs being stolen through video. And the question we're getting a lot is, well, how do we value Astros now?

Do we need to lower the value of all their hitters? And because you said starting to unpack that, I mean, part of my thinking was, okay, this goes back to 2017. It goes back to Alex Cora, who's been gone for two years. what kind of any changes in those players we would have already seen by now. But I mean, what's your feeling on that, Matt? It's interesting. I've actually had a few people ask me that too. Like shouldn't we downgrade the Astros at least like one round or something like that?

And one of the things we need to keep in mind on that. It's interesting. You said to starting to unpack, and that's something I've talked about on a couple other radio shows, is something like this happens. it always seems like there's going to be more down the line, whether it's different teams being involved like we saw. Initially it was the Astros, then the Red Sox got added to it. Now, I know it's just Alex Coral with both teams, but you never know if we're going to see other teams down the line where this comes out. But one thing that to me is one of the biggest deals, if you talk about it

from a fantasy perspective, is the teams can really only control the video aspect of this at home. They have the home feed. They can only use kind of advanced video technologies when they're at home because they can't take a bunch of equipment with them on the road and then bring it into the clubhouse and have it in the hall between. So what you'd have to look at is home road splits. And actually was looking at some of the split from last year from the Astros. And like, Bregman was way better on the road, like exponentially better on the road. But then you look at somebody like Correa, he was awful. I mean, 516 slugging on the road, but 242 average on the road versus 323 at home, that is something that if they were still carrying over some of the techniques in 2019,

might be worrisome, but the report from Manfred said it carried over some in the 2018, but they found that it was less effective as the year went on. And then mostly he found that they weren't really doing it in 2019. So a lot of that discussion might be obsolete by now. Yeah. Okay. And you were mostly just looking at the home away splits you gave there were basically restricted to 2019. I mean, the way I've kind of seen it is, okay, maybe in 2017 that contributed to Marwin Gonzalez having a career year.

that year he had then was kind of an outlier. Yeah. But, you know, most of the high-profile Astros hitters were high draft picks, top prospects, and just have been studs basically from the day they set foot in the big leagues. Bregman, George Springer, Carlos Corre. He's had some injuries. But, you know, when he's been all there, he's been great. So I think there's a tendency, and this is just kind of a human nature.

thing, I think. When somebody gets busted for something that you don't get busted for, it's easy to take this kind of sanctimonious attitude where you just want to totally nail them as hard as you can and you want them to suffer the maximum amount. That's the only reason they were good, right? Yeah. Yeah. Look how much of a stud Nelson Cruz is still. I feel like almost a lot of people have forgotten about the biogenesis ties with Nelson Cruz because he's still such a stud power hitter into his late 30s. Yeah. So it's probably not going to make that big of a difference, even if they were still doing stuff. The only thing I thought about was Coor's Field came to mind to me. Let's say the reports wrong, and the Astros were still doing some stuff at home last year. And then we have to lump in the Red Sox, too. Like Bogart splits were a big difference last year, for example. Coors Field, for example, going on the road when you're a Rockies player, there's a penalty there.

Because you get so used to hitting in Coors Field, then you automatically are pretty, much way worse on the road and a lot of people thought, oh, these guys are cool as creations, but you look at somebody like DJ LaMayhew last year, it kind of goes to show once you break free from it. So I almost wonder if, I guess this is a kind of a roundabout way to say, if some of these really talented guys were getting signs at home and now that's going to go away, maybe a penalty on the road goes away too. So I think, I want to bring up this split real quick, Jose Altuve, in 2017, during the height of the cheating. His OPS at home was 834 and his OPS on the road was 1081. So it didn't seem to

help him. He's better without cheating. It's a motor pregnant last year. And I mean, it's it's along the same lines of the guys who've gotten busted for PEDs. You know, oh, they're not going to be the same anymore. That was the reason they were good. And I over the years, you know, there's some that you could attribute to just natural regression, age, whatever, but you take that out of the equation, and I can't think of a single example where a guy got

pusted for PEDs came back and was noticeably worse when he did come back. Melke Cabrera said he was like it at the time. Melke was the guy I was going to go with. Who were you going to say Matt? Colobello. There's a few guys that were like, they were Quade and then they did it and they had a big

gear, but for the most of them had like a 400 Babbip too, is the thing. There were obvious reasons he was going to decline apart from that. Well, he took Babbitt pills, Scott. So I think we're pretty much and this has been asked a lot, but from a fantasy standpoint, you know, it doesn't seem like

Scott's willing to downgrade anyone in the rankings for this. So I wanted to talk more generally from a baseball standpoint and let me read an email here from Wayne Provost in Myrtle Beach and his subject line was, hey, Alan, dot, dot, dot. And the reason I'm reading this email is because he called me Alan instead of Adam

and I've been hosting the show for 10 years. So I just thought that was funny. He said, seeing as you're on your moral high horse and crucifying Boston and Houston for stealing signs, you must surely want to condemn the Yankees for using technology and stealing signs from 2010 to 2015, per the athletic. Looking forward to your response on the podcast.

And then Wayne sent a follow-up email of the day. Your scorch-earth policy means you need to go after the players involved also and Carlos Beltron and whoever comes out next. I suppose you never cheated at anything. So he is referencing that I said on this show many times, half joking, half serious, maybe 51% serious, that they should strip the Red Sox and the Astros of their World Series titles. They are cheaters and they deserve to be stripped of their titles. So you want me to criticize the Yankees for cheating before? So Manfred gave this memo, what was 2017, right?

Yes, spring of 2017. Stop using technology. And I think the reason he came down so hard on the Astros and the Red Sox is they did it after the memo. So cheating is cheating. The Yankees deserve to be outed as cheaters during this stretch whenever it was. You know, you can read the athletic report. Absolutely. If they had won the World Series, I might say strip them, but they didn't.

So strip the Red Sox and strip the, I would know. I might. Look, if they did it after the memo, I certainly would have. After the memo is when it got egregious to me. They're such a vague. It gets so tough. was like, when is cheating worse than other forms of cheating? You know, it's not an easy question to answer.

But obviously, Rob Manfred felt that the Astros and the Red Sox crossed the line, Matt. Yeah. And, I mean, he said he interviewed upwards of 60, up the top of my head, maybe 68 people that were involved. And a lot of the players, I mean, they testified, almost like from a criminal proceeding same point. A lot of people have asked me, why haven't any players got hit? Well, it was in exchange for immunity.

that they said this is what we were doing just so they wouldn't get in trouble. So it seems to me that all the Astros players kind of came clean. My guess is when we hear the Alex Cora investigation on the Red Sox in, it's going to be very similar. All the Red Sox players are going to say, this is what we were doing. It was at the direction of Alex Cora. Cora, it seems like is pretty much admitted it, if not fully, then he will eventually and he'll apologize. But yeah, I feel like, like you said, it was the memo. 2017 spring training

Stop using technology to do it The Astros almost immediately thereafter Just basically trampled on the memo and did it And that's why it's such a big deal Now I will say on the vacating titles thing To me that's always just seemed dumb Even when I was a little kid And I'd hear about like a college team vacating titles

But I knew they won And they went through the experience And they went through the celebrating Unless you have one of those men and black memory eraser thing Is you can't take away The Astros fans' memories of that You can't take away the players celebrating and how they felt. You can't take away their parade.

That all happened. So vacating it is, to me, something that just makes somebody who missed it in a position of authority. It makes them feel better. Because other than that, it doesn't really do anything. It would make me feel better, for sure. So, A.J. Hinch being suspended and then fired, when they're the report, he reportedly broke the monitor twice, sort of in protest of this scheme.

They had a monitor in their club, in their dugout, or not in their dugout, but close by, to help in relaying the signs with the trash cans, whatever. And he apparently, Matt, he broke the monitors. So, like, should I feel bad for AJ Hinch? What's your read on his role? Yes and no. On the yes end, he has long been known as a man of character, a good baseball man. And he's one of the few guys who actually stood up for Stephanie Epstein and the Sports Illustrated. incident with Brandon Tomlin. He actually did come out after the fake news press release at the

front office release. Hinch actually came out and said, we need to do a better job of this. But he's also in the situation. And if you don't do more to prevent it than just breaking him under, you know, you're Alex Kora's boss. You're the player's boss. You go to them and say, cut this out. If it's coming from above, which I suspect it was. I'm sure that Luno knew what was going on, but he kind of created layers of separation so it wasn't directly linked to him. but if he felt like he really wanted to do the moral thing, he could have resigned. I feel like he was probably caught in between a rock and hard place

where he wanted to win the World Series and he knew he had the horses that do it, but he knew this was wrong. And so he was just kind of caught. But if you're really going to come out as a man of the highest moral fiber, then you quit if you can't get him to stop. All right, I'm going to end this discussion here and let Matt go with one final question for both of you.

And it's how big of a deal do you think? this is, you know, just generally speaking from a baseball standpoint. I think it's a pretty big deal. I think it's discouraging to know that cheating is pretty rampant and that all teams are trying to do it. I mean, I guess you know that, but the lengths that they went to do it, lengths that other teams went to, went to, excuse me, before the memo, I think it's very discouraging. I think it's kind of sad. And I hate it in terms of professional sports. So I do think it's a big deal. And I think Rob Manfred did a good job. I give him a round of applause for the punishments. I don't know. I'm just going to stay out of what he did with the owner, Jim Crane or

whatever, basically not much. But I think he did a good job, and I think it was a really big deal, and I think it needed harsh punishment. Scott, where do you stand on this whole thing? Well, certainly the punishments made it a big deal if it wasn't before. I mean, this is kind of unprecedented the level that I mean Jeff Luno was had built and was still building a dynasty I mean the astros were in a position for I mean they already had tons of success and were in a position for sustained success and maybe his successor will get to continue it but I mean they just dismantled it and obviously it's it's disgraced now everything they've accomplished to this point I kind of am of the mindset that everybody, every organization is cheating a little bit somewhere. And so I feel like the ones that have the most success are under the microscope more and tend to get singled out more. Hopefully, I mean, what really crossed the line with this was the use of technology. And hopefully the hammer came down hard enough that that'll really curtail it.

but I think, I mean, kind of what we talked about with individual performances, what substantive effect did it have? Well, maybe on a micro level, it had pitch by pitch, it did have a significant one, but on a macro level, I mean, the Astros, whether or not they won that World Series, they were positioned to be a dynasty. All right, Matt, your final word? Yeah, I agree with most of that. I mean, I think it's probably not as huge of a deal as I see a lot on social media coming about.

Like, oh, vacate the title. They're dirty cheater. That's probably too far. But coming from a player's perspective, and I've talked to a lot of players when the Yankees talked about like if the asteros were whistling when they had the signs. And most of them are like, you know, hide your signs better. I actually talked to a former catcher who said one time Jose Okendo got his signs. And he was like, that was on me. I need to do a better job of covering him.

Now, there's a whole different ballgame between somebody on the basis getting your signs and using video technology and relaying it. That's where I think the line got crossed and it was going to continue to get crossed. And that's why I think going back to what Alan said, I'm sorry, Adam. Alan, yeah, no, Alan's fine. Alan, going back to what Alan said. Manfred did a good job of nipping this in the bud because if he didn't hit this early, it was only going to get worse. It was only going to get more rampant and widespread. So I think it was a good job that he nipped this in the butt and he got it early.

Now they're going to get the Red Sox to. Hopefully this puts a stop to it. I do think that eventually you're going to have to do something where I proposed to a former pitcher. And he said, I would do that. I like that. Getting an earpiece that's like the size of a hearing aid. They make those so small now you can't even see them. Give a catcher like a wristband, have him punch buttons on there.

Pitter knows what pitch. He can still shake him off if he wants. We're probably going to need to get to some. Now, that's kind of sad that we might need to do that just to prevent the technology from stealing, but hey, technology's there. We might as well use it for a positive instead of a negative. Hopefully the wheels are in motion with something like that.

Gone are the days of catchers wearing nail polish. Sad, sad thing in professional baseball. Matt Snyder, thank you very much for joining us. Good stuff. All right, guys. Have a good one. Ready to talk fantasy baseball, Scott? Oh, I'm always ready, Adam.

Oh, good. Okay. I was born ready. How'd you feel about the Oscar nomination? It's always a big thing for you, I think. I did not dig into them that hard. Okay, never mind. Yeah, sorry.

All right, well, look, if I've been saying it on Twitter, I'm going to say it on the air now. Dolomite is my name was amazing. And Eddie Murphy was the best he's ever been. He's ever been. And he was snubbed of a nomination. I've only seen one other movie that had one of the best actor nominees. And no disrespect to Adam Driver. but Eddie Murphy was so much better than him.

This was a Travis Shamockery. For those of you who remember, that fun commercial. What did you think about the Adam Sandler snows? So I actually agreed with it. I saw Uncut Gems. I liked Uncut Gems. Yeah, he told me he liked it. I did not think he was great.

I thought there was a scene where he was crying, and it was a little, it was kind of bad. I just, I thought he was pretty good, but I didn't think he was like Oscar-worthy, my personal opinion, yeah. But uncut gems was really good. Yeah, it was good. Okay, Scott, topic today,

players who were studs last year that are not being treated as studs in 80P. And the players I want to talk about are Katel Marte, and this is in order of average draft position. Ketel Marte going 44th overall, he was the number 16 hitter in fantasy. DJ LaMayhew going 66th overall. He was top six at three different positions.

Jorge Soler going 75th overall. We talked about him, I think, on our last show, top 10 outfielder. Marcus Simeon. Marcus Simeon was the number five... Listen, he was the number five hitter in points leagues last year, number 18 in Roto. He, I think he played 162 games, and he led off,

and his plate discipline was good, so... I mean, he was an MVP finalist in the A.L. There's three finalists announced before the winner, so, like, that was deserved it completely. Yeah, and he's going 81st, Marcus Simeon. Nelson Cruz had his best season ever. He had a 1031 OPEO. He's going 91st.

Eduardo Escobar is going 99th. Junjin Ryu 100. This, like 100th overall, it seemed to be where these guys who really surprised us last year, and there are some questions where they tend to start going. Nelson Cruz, Eduardo Escobar, Hyunjin Ryu, Josh Donaldson, who just signed a deal. We'll talk about that. Trey Mancini forgot about how good he was.

Top 15 outfielder. And Yuli Guriel, who had a 1087 OPS in his last 73 games. Uly Gariel going 113th overall. I did want to run through the news, just mainly three items. Let's do that real quick. One of them is on Josh Donaldson. Four years, $92 million with the twins.

What do you think? Well, it's a Braves fan. I'm bummed because it was looking like all the other contenders were scooping up lower in third basement. And I thought, I thought, I was just waiting for the Josh Donaldson back to the Braves announcement. For fantasy, I think,

the biggest most impactful thing here is that Austin Riley has a pretty easy path to at bats now if he proves ready for them. I mean, he could have played the outfield. He showed that last year too, but the only obstacle at third base now is Johann Camargo and barring a big trade like for Nolan Aeronado or Chris Bryant, which seems unlikely, you know, I don't think that's going to change. I think more likely the Braes find a cleanup pitter via an outfielder.

So Austin Riley will be starting for the Braves at third base again at some point this season. A lot of power potential there. Obviously, the strikeouts caught up to him last year. But he's a year older, hopefully a year wiser. And we'll see if maybe he can come through on all this potential this time around. Oh my gosh. He was so fun to talk about Austin Riley. His first 17 games got called up on May 15th.

His first 17 games, he had an OPS. almost 1100. He batted 328 with eight home runs, but only three walks to 25 strikeouts. So let's just get the numbers after that, beginning on June 4th, his 18th game. Disaster. Yeah, pretty bad, right?

It's just a disaster. I mean, a strikeout rate was like 35% for the year, which is, you know, Joey Callow. He had a 640. I said Joey Gallo territory. He had a 644 OPS, 13 walks to 83 strikeouts, after that amazing start of 17 games.

So Austin Riley was fun. And also a related note, the twins gave Miguel Sanoe an extension, three years 30 million. He really, if in case you missed it, his last 71 games, he had a 95 OPS. I know he made an adjustment in the box

with his stance and it seemed to pay off. Sineau has been an up and down player, but he'll play first base now, right? So he'll have eligibility at both corners of the infield? Yeah, but within the first week of the season, he will, yes. And I'm high on Miguel Sineau. I think, obviously, he has to stay healthy, but I think if he does, there's a good chance he's 50 homer guy. I mean, he's right up there with Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge in terms of how hard he impacts the ball, which we've seen

with those two cases and others is what can overcome a big strikeout rate. What do you make of the Ray's Cardinals trade? The Ray is getting Jose Martinez and Randy a Rosal as the Welsh would say, Hey, Rosareda. And they also got the 38th pick from the Cardinals. They gave up a pitching prospect, Matt Liberatore. I hope I'm saying that right. And Eduardo Rodriguez, a catcher, and the 66th pick.

What did you make of this trade? We were told about, I'd been saying it Liberator. Maybe it is Liberatore. I don't know. We'd been told that he was part of a deal, like two hours before we heard the rest of the deal, so all of Twitter was in pins and needles waiting to hear what the Cardinals gave up to get this consensus top 100 prospect.

And when we found out what it was, it was a wamp-womp moment because it was just a couple of platoon bats. I mean, that's all Jose Martinez is at this point. He's restricted to de-hching. They just signed Yoshitsutuzugo out of Japan to be there. You figure he's going to play primarily DH.

He can play some left field. They can play some first base, but he's probably the left-handed compliment to Jose Martinez, who bats right-handed. And I think that's all this is going to be. As much as the rays like to move parts around and as good of the history as they have, of, you know, maximizing the impact of hitters,

guys like Al-Viselle Garcia and used... Diaz, what's his first name? Yondi. Blanking on his first... What? Yandy. Yandy Diaz, yes. You know, maybe there's something they see in Jose Martinez

that they can tap into, but I just don't think... He's coming off... I don't think the abats are going to be there. He's coming off a really bad year, but before that, he was a really good average hitter. Yeah. Like, I think he could be in a best case scenario what Avis Al Garcia was to the raise last year.

But that would require more playing time than I see available to him right now. Yeah, and he's such a bad defender, so at least this gets him to the American League, right? So if there are some injuries, maybe, well, you know, you don't have to draft them, put it that way. But if he gets everyday playing time, this is a guy who could, in a Roto League, be hugely valuable because he can hit 300 in Jose Martinez. Okay, a trade of Nolan Aronado still considered a long shot, according to ESPN's Jeff Passon, the Diamondback signed leaf pitcher Hector Rondo into a one-year deal. The Mets invited Tim Tebow to spring training.

Great. The Rangers signed Todd Frazier to a one-year $5 million deal. The A's acquired infielder Tony Kemp from the Cubs for a first baseman Alfonso Rivas. The Phillies cut Oduble Herrera and claimed Nick Martini. The Dodgers signed Alex Wood to a one-year deal. That's interesting. Maybe he can bounce back. Yeah, I think that's the second most notable transaction here after Donaldson,

just because the Dodgers are doing that Dodgers thing again. where they get like 10 arms for five spots, and we're just going to be pulling out our hair, trying to decide whether we should go after the Ross driplings, and even like Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin. Add Alex Wood to that mix, because I don't think he's going to be guaranteed a rotation spot, but I suspect he'll be making some starts for them this year.

And Atlanta Stadium has a new name. No longer SunTrust Park. It is now Truist Park, T-R-U-I-S-T. truest park. We could do something with that. We used to say, we used to joke, you could trust

that the ball was going to touch the sun because the ball was just flying out of SunTrust Park when it opened. But now, I think the truest outcome

is just going to be that it's like a neutral park. You see, I don't know. Yeah, it's landed on its truest form. There you go. And yeah,

it's just kind of a middle-of-the-road ballpark. All right, Scott. Let's talk about players who were studs last season but are not being treated like studs this season. Okay, I want to give a

overall take on this subject because it's one that's become near and dear to me. This was not in any way by design. This was not a strategy I sat down and consciously thought about. But I've kind of backed into it and I'm pretty happy

with the way it's gone for me. It seems like the industry as a whole does not like these guys. Kind of the mid-career breakout. guys, they tend to get, from my perspective, buried in the rankings. And look, I think it's totally appropriate for a guy with kind of a middling track record coming off a career season. Okay, you don't rank him like the career numbers. I never do. But the discount being applied

by the industry as a whole is as a whole is so extreme. One example you didn't even include here, Mark Kana, I was talking about him on Twitter last night. And he's barely a top 300 player, even though he had a near 400 OBP, an OPS over 900, 26 home runs, and I think 400, 10 at bats. And that was as a everyday player, basically the final three months of the season was good against both righties and lefties. Mark Kana's nearly a top 150 player for me, and the industry as a whole barely has them in the top 300. So that's an example of that right there. I mean, if you just project those numbers from Kana last year out,

you're talking about Michael Conforto-type production, if not better. And so I'm not ranking him that high. I'm not ranking him at Michael Conforto's level, but he's just being completely disregarded by the masses. So I think I have theories for why this is the case. I know a lot of projection systems start with three-year averages, which would obviously, for guys with middling track records, would really pull down that career year. And maybe that's where it comes from. Rankings are then built off those projections.

I don't know. That's just a guess. But at a time when player analysis has become so sophisticated data, so widely available, that it's hard to find much differentiation in how we evaluate players. I've found this to be a market and efficiency, a way to really get an edge on your competition, is just not ignoring these guys. Sure. Yeah, all right.

So I only have one pitcher. I've missed a lot of guys, I'm sure. You mentioned Mark Kana. Somebody wrote us an email about Lance Lynn and Mike Minor, so they could have fit the bill too. But I went with mostly hitters here, and Junjun Riu is the only pitcher I have. I guess if I were looking at this list as a whole,

I think Marte is going to be the toughest one because he's going the earliest by far on this list Marte is going 44th overall he was the number 16 hitter in fantasy I think we should start with him I feel most confident that I know do I know who this player is there are two guys where I feel like I know who they are

and that's Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz if he's healthy I think he's going to be a top 20 hitter until I see otherwise I'm not doubting Nelson Cruz he was better than ever last year but he's starting to get hurt so I think 91st overall

is like a ridiculous value for Nelson Cruz and I think Josh Donaldson is going to hit a lot of home runs and driving a lot of runs and I think you should probably expect like a 265ish something like that kind of bad if it's healthy and those are the two most proven on this list

Donaldson and Cruz, they've been studs before, they were studs last year, but they're also, Donaldson's 34, Cruz is 39, and Donaldson has an extensive injury history. So there are separate reasons they're being downgraded than just disbelief in the performance. It's risk of the age. And Donaldson's case, third base is so loaded that even though, let's see where he finished last year, he was among 30. basement he was seventh in points leagues yeah and ninth in roto and ninth in roto it's easier to make these comparisons in points leagues which is why i tend to go there with comparison but you look at the per game production for donelson even though he was technically seventh i mean there are so many right there with him in terms of points per game that it's it wouldn't have taken much to shake up

those rankings in a significant way and so when you start assessing him alongside similarly able players he becomes the risks really stand out for him compare him to like Matt Chapman or Mani Machado who we know have you know if Machado wasn't quite on their level this past year but obviously we've seen greatness from him in the past Donaldson

the risks really stand out for him so he just keeps getting pushed down at a weak position at a deep position yes at a deep position sorry I mean that's an interesting take I think he had an interesting season in Donaldson because he We kept talking about him as maybe a buy low

because he was hitting the ball so hard and had nothing to show for it. His first 65 games, only a 769 OPS, only nine home runs. He batted 236. And the plate discipline wasn't great. His last 90 games, he had a 99-0PS, and he had 63 walks to 79 strikeouts,

and he batted 275. And you look at what he did in, I think, only 16 games with Cleveland, but he had 10 walks to 10 strikeouts with Cleveland at the end of 2000. So there's been like enough good plate discipline in his last two years to make me feel like he might not be a batting average drain because he hit 259. Maybe he can hit 270. But like, obviously he's not going to help you.

But he could help you. He could help you in OBP because he does walk a lot. But all right. So fine. We know who they are. If they stay healthy, they're going to be run producers, Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson. And now they're in the same lineup. But let's start.

If they stay healthy and they just don't have a skills decline, which especially in Cruz is. case it could happen any year at 39 is he's already beating the odds a few times over yeah i suppose i guess i'm not really that concerned about it because like hitting is so deep i don't know and i and i also feel like it i also feel like he drops to a point where there's no need to be concerned about it you know yeah it i feel like if they change the ball and home runs go down actually those guys are going to keep hitting them you know donaldson and cruz yeah they'll hit them oh Okay, anyway. Yeah.

Catelle Marte. So I think you're going to be one of high guys, right, on Cotel Marte within the industry? Oh, definitely. Yeah. When would you take him? Like I said, he's going 44th overall. So I was able to push him into the third round in points leagues just by moving pitchers up higher, and I can totally justify that. But in Roto League, he's still a late second rounder for me.

And, again, I'm going to use points leagues just because it makes for an easier comparison. We have to. Can I reject, though? fact of just how... Can I interject? Sorry. Sure, go ahead. I just want to point.

This is a player in Ketelmarte that profiles as someone who would be better in points leagues. His plate discipline's good. He gives you doubles. He gives you triples. He's not a huge steals guy necessarily. So I think any bats lead off,

it's toward the top of the order, so he's going to get a lot of plate appearances. So yeah, totally fine to use points leagues. This player in particular, Katel Marte, is I think, you know, I'm much more confident drafting him in a points league. When we talk about DJ LaMehew, I feel the same way about him.

Then I am in a roto league at this point. But go ahead with Marte. So yeah, it's just to remind everybody how distant of a first who was at second base per game production here, which probably gives a better snapshot than overall production. 3.88 points per game for him. Second among second baseman was another guy on this list, DJ LaMayhew, 3.68. So whatever concerns you'd have about Marte, LeMayhew, would share them. there's a 0.2 per game difference, which is a big difference.

There's also a 22 spot difference in Roto in terms of ADP between those two. But they're the first two on the list. And then Haltufe was third at 3.61, and then fourth was Max Muncie at 3.41. So another big drops there. And, you know, Altuvae of the names I just rattled off is the most proven. I have him and Marte ranked right next to each other. But I do want Marte more because I think, If we're operating under the assumption that Altuve isn't going to be a big base dealer anymore, I certainly am.

Then Marte's upside, I think, is more evident. What, dude? As far... I got to get super high pitched there. Like, Jose Altovae is one of the best hitters in baseball. Cotel Marte had not had an OPS. I don't even think it was 770 before last year. What he did last year was completely, completely shocking.

Well, you're talking about downside. I was talking about upside. But he's only had one season of upside. And if you look at Jose Altuve, what he did in the second half, it's probably the best hitter in baseball. If not, he was on the very, very short list. Well, look at what could tell Marte did in the second half, because that was another thing that won me over to him.

He has this incredible first half unprecedented, and you're like, okay, he's going to cool off. These numbers are going to normalize. He only got better in the second half. He had a better second half than 30. He had 358 with a 1081 OPS in the second half. Okay, but if Al-Tuvae was better than that, will you change your mind? Because I think Al-Tubei was better than that.

Oh, I don't know if he was better than that. Al-Tubei was 325 with 21 homers. He had a, I can't do the math right now. He had like, he had an OPS over a thousand as well. It was pretty sick. But so much of Al-Tube's production in the past has been stolen bases. Like the 31 home runs he hit last year were by far a career high as well. So it's like, are we, I don't know that we could just assume.

Like if you look at the numbers contributing to that in terms of ex-Woba and X batting average even, they paint a better picture for Marte than they do for Al-Tuve, even though Al-Tuve has the track record. And Marte, I mean, he like doubles his launch angle. It's he joined the fly ball revolution. That was a big key to the breakthrough too. So it's not just looking at the numbers and making judgments from that. It looks like there was a clear skill change there as well. I don't know, because that's a thing.

Like he still, tell Marte, right. The question I think that needs to be answered that you are currently answering is what happened. This guy was he went from 14. home runs, well, he went from 1 to 5 to 14 to 32 home runs in his last four seasons. He still hits more ground balls than fly balls.

His 36% hard contact rate, no, that was 2018. 42% hard contact rate was 58th in baseball. I just don't get it. I don't understand how Catel Marte was this good because it's not like his home run to fly ball rate was super high. It was like 15%

or something. That was 19%. But that's not crazy high. but maybe for a guy who... Yeah, that is a good thing. But maybe it's high for someone with only a 42% hard contact rate according to fan graphs. I don't know.

But this, you gotta admit, Scott, this season came out of nowhere and was just a bonkers outlier season. Yes and no. I will say, like, I didn't, I don't think even the Cattel Marte truthers and, you know, he was a sleeper for some.

I'll tell you why, in just a minute. But I don't even think they were expecting numbers like this. And look, he overachieved. I think that's pretty clear. His 329 batting average

that's compared to a 299 XBA. His 981, or I'm sorry, his 405 Wobah that's compared to a 370X Woba. The thing is, those X numbers are still high. I mean, that 299XBA

was top 15 in baseball. So, like, it's probable he's going to regress some, but the production, certainly the breakthrough is backed up by the skills. And this is the number I wanted to cite last year for Cotel Marte. I was a little too, I noticed it. In retrospect, I was obviously too dismissive of it, but not everybody was. Over the final four months of 2018, Cotel Marte hit 285 with an 87 OPS. That was the final two-thirds of 2018. Hmm, interesting.

So you split the difference between that and last year. I think that's about what you're talking about, a reasonable expectation for Cotel Marte being. Okay. All right, so then let's talk about DJ LaMayhew, who is going 66th overall. Now that's in Roto. I think that even if LeMayhew,

let's say the batting average comes down a little bit, you just get the numbers up. he hit DJ LaMayhew hit 3 27 the fact that he leads off for the best lineup in baseball what was the best lineup last year it will certainly be I would think at least top three this year

the fact that his plate discipline is always so good to me DJ LaMayhew in a points league I think I think you could justify like a top 40 pick for him I really do you know he might have to sort of meet his upside but I think there's some safety there. But what surprised people about DJ LeMayhew Scott

was that he was really, really bad on the road in 2018. His OPS on the road was 699, but his batting average on the road was 229. And with Colorado, he had always been someone who, on the road, away from Coors, didn't hit for any power, but he still hit for a good average, at least in recent seasons. And then 2018 happened. He hits 229 away from Coors Field.

and certainly did not expect him hit 327 with the Yankees with a 349 Babbitt. So I love that he leads off. I love that he doesn't strike out. And I think that the home runs, I mean, he hit 26 of them, but I believe 19 of them, yeah, 19 of them came at home. And he does hit the ball to all field so he can go opo and, you know, take advantage. Like, I'm somewhat optimistic about him meeting this ADP of 66 overall. How about you with the Mayhew?

Yeah, I'm optimistic about that too. It's another example of a guy I'm happy to buy into. And this is more like the mid-career breakout. We were talking about than even Catel-Marte. I mean, Cotel-Marte is still pretty early in his career. I just don't think coming up through the Mariners and Diamondback systems, anybody was really thinking of him as a power hitter. LeMayhew, like the change for him other than the park was that,

that he started hitting home runs in a way he never had before. Everything else in terms of the kind of contact he made, the all fields approach, the kind of babbip he profiles for, like that, that didn't really change. So it's just a question of do you expect them to keep up the home run production? I mean, the stat cast numbers say it was legit, more legit than Cattel Marte. He actually underperformed his ex-Woba, LeMayu did last year. He just hit the ball a lot harder than ever before. And I don't know, you know, you find a cause for something, and then you have to find a cause for the cause.

I can't take it any further than that. But you mentioned how good he was at home. I mentioned his opposite field approach. I mean, it may just be that. Yankee Stadium is a better home run park than Corse Field. It's not a better hitter's park overall, but it's a better home run park. course field is the main thing it does for hitters is improves the bat-bip

ceiling and floor. But yeah, I think it's, I think there's enough reason to buy into it for LaMayhew that, considering he performed like a first or at least a second rounder last year, getting him in the sixth round, yeah, I'll do that all day long. Yeah, he's going to regress.

I mean, especially, he hit 389 with runners in scoring position. So for a lead off hitter, even on the Yankees to drive in 102 runs, that was surprising. He did it in 145 games. So, like, there's no way he's going to have that type of RBI rate, I suppose. But I think he'll get you a good batting average.

He'll probably hit 300, and he'll score 100 runs. And, yeah, he's, you know, he's solid. And seems to me fairly safe, I guess, because he just doesn't strike out. He has a track record of putting a bat on the ball. All right, let's talk about some more players here. We didn't mention, let's look at this group here. Jorge Soler, Marcus Simeon, Eduardo Escobar. That's the order in which they're going.

Solair 75th, Simeon 81st, and Escobar, 99th. Most, how would you rank them in terms of just overall on your draft board? Soler, Simeon, and Eduardo Escobar. I think I'd actually put Simeon ahead of Soler, but it's pretty close. Escobar would be a distant third for me. In fact, I think I actually, I think he might be the one player on this list that I have lower than his ADP because I just The same numbers that are backing up these other players' performances don't really back up his, at least not to that same extent.

Mainly he should be worse on balls and play than he is. So if he's going to sell out as hard for power as he did last year, the overall production, you know, is, he might be more like a 245 hitter if he does that. than a 269 hitter. Yeah, Eduardo Escobar hit 269 with 35 home runs and 118 RBIs. He does hit a lot of fly balls, which is nice. And he's actually been a top 10 second baseman based on the current player pool who's eligible at each position. Eduardo Escobar has been top 10 at second base and top eight at third base, two straight seasons.

And he's had an OPS around 830 both years. And one year, I think he hit a ton of doubles and triples. or no, yeah, 2018, he had 48 doubles. In 2019, he turned some of those into home runs with 35 homers. It was the year of the home run. There's just something about him that just feels very generic. I don't know. Like, he doesn't really do it for me.

If you compare his numbers to Mike Mustakis' they're, like, just the raw numbers. They're pretty close. I mean, they're pretty close to being the same player last year. The thing is, Mike Mustakis has done it a few times over, and Escobar was basically just done it the one year. He had a pretty good year in 2018, too, but not like what he did last year.

And last I saw, Escobar was going ahead of Mustakis, even though they both have the dual eligibility at second and third base. I just don't understand that at all. So how about Simeon? Because I just have trouble buying in. I love the strides he made with his play discipline. And that's huge. But gosh, he's been such a bad player.

And I need some water here. So go ahead. How bad is this oversimplification that was maybe brought about by your throat issue there? Yeah, I think it was. I was trying to get out of there. He's been a fairly useless fantasy player, I'd say, in previous scenes. Yeah, pretty fringy. Pretty fringy for fantasy purposes, though the fact, you know, he might give you 15 homers and 15 steals had its place in middle infields.

Rotel leagues that had a midfield spot. But obviously much, much better last year. You mentioned the plate discipline, which was significantly improved, both in terms of the walks and especially the strikeouts. And obviously that's going to improve batting average potential in and of itself. Simeon's another one of those guys who, the way he started out last season, you thought, okay, he's going to come back down to Earth. And then he just got better in the second half, kind of like I was saying for Cattel Marte. And in Simeon's case, it's even more obvious how that happened. And he just stopped hitting ground balls, which in today's landscape is, you know, ground balls are the worst thing you could possibly hit because fly balls are so likely to end up at home runs.

And obviously defensive shifts are taking away a lot of ground ball hits. His line drive and fly ball rates both went up significantly in the second half, which improves both batting average potential and power potential. And we saw it applied to the base stats. So again, I'm not counting on MVP caliber production again, but I would be perfectly happy with him as my starting shortstop in the range she's going, which is what about the seventh round in a 12-team league. Let me ask you something about what you just said.

I understand that line drive rate helps Babbip. Batting it, yeah. Yeah, Babbitt and batting average. And the funny thing is, like, his Babbup has been remarkably consistent, but he just stopped striking out. So it made sense. You got the same Babbitt. You're putting more balls in play.

Your batting average is going to go up. But wouldn't an increase in fly ball rate be worse than ground balls in terms of your batting average? Yeah, it would. It lowers Babbitt potential, hitting more fly balls. That's why somebody like Mustakis is condemned to a low batting average. He doesn't strike out much, but he doesn't hit for much average either. But the two in unison.

in. Really, it's more about lowering the ground balls than, in this case, raising the fly. The fact that it was distributed between line drives, which help BABIP, fly balls, which hurt Babbitt, but help home run potential. I think that's how you get the best of both worlds, is eliminating the ground balls from your profile. That's kind of, you know, that's kind of the part of the launch angle revolution, too. This is crazy. Just 81st overall. And you just have to ask yourself at that point, are the guys on the board that you could be taking instead of Simeon so good that you just can't pass up what Simeon did, you know, last year.

Well, I'll tell you what I struggle with. It's tough. I'll tell you what I struggle with. And this is, this is kind of just me sticking my neck out for Marcus Simeon. Although actually looking at composite ADP between a few different sources, I'm not alone at this. It's Simeon versus like Bo Bichette. and even a second baseman who's kind of in the same boat as Bo Bichet, Kestin Hira.

Like, do I really want Simeon over those guys who showed so much upside in their rookie season? And it really just comes down to what you trust the most. And if you trust the data the most, then the data backs up Simeon, what Simeon was doing better than it backs up those other two. I've seen enough fantasy baseball where the data could say that what a player did this year was completely legit.

But as we say, the data is not predictive. The data could, his hitting profile could change next year. So. The data is more predictive than the actual numbers, though. You're right. It could. It could. You are taking a risk somewhat, which is why I've said for all of these players,

yes, you've got to, you've got to downgrade them some. but generally speaking, you know, the data is a better indicator of skill change than just, you know, batting average home runs, all of that. Yeah. And skill changes more often than not hold. They don't always, but they more often than not hold. Okay. And I think, I guess I would like Simeon and Marte better if they hit the ball a little harder more consistently because they even, their hard contact rate, but everybody's doing that these days.

But they had very similar hard contact rates, I believe. And according to, on Fangraphs anyway, on our last show, we talked about how fan graphs and stat cast are a little bit different. But it's about 60th overall among hitters. So, you know, that's why a guy like Josh Donaldson is exciting to me because he clobbered the ball. And Simian really didn't. But he still hit 33 home runs with a 285 batting average.

What an amazing. year. He's another guy. He had a 702 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position, so 92 RBIs as a leadoff hitter. That's not necessarily easy to do, and I don't know that he'll do that again. But again, he was the number 18 hitter in Roto, number five in points leagues. When you lead off for a good lineup and you decrease your strikeouts, that is a great recipe for points league success. Let's see. We've got a few minutes left, Scott. Let me see who else we should talk about. How about Tray Mancini or the final names were Because we already talked about Cruz and Donaldson.

Junjin Ryu, Trey Mancini, and Yuli Guriel, all going between 100th and 113th overall. Ryu, Mancini, Guriel, Ryu is now on the Blue Jays. And Mancini was a top 15 outfielder, and Guriel was a 1087 OPS in his last 73 games, which was crazy. So anyway, who do you like in that range? Mancini probably the most because he doesn't have age working against him.

I feel like, look, Ryu's missed a lot of time with injuries over the years, so you don't want a heavy investment in him just because of that. I think skill-wise, we pretty much know who he is. An extreme ground ball generator with terrific control. Not a huge bat misser. But those two things should be enough to give him a low three-ze. ERA, which is basically what he regressed to in the second half. I think second half for you is what we can expect for as long as he's able to take the

mound. But that is, you know, it's dangerous. He had a 318 ERA in a second half, by the way, with a 115 whip. But it's dangerous to assume he's going to be able to take the mound regularly. And now he's with the Blue Jays instead of the Dodgers, which also presents an issue in terms of how likely is to win games. So, you know, I'm fine with him there. but I don't really want to go higher than that.

Trey Mancini, or let's do Yulia Gurriel first, because you mentioned his second half numbers, right? Yes, I did. The second half you pointed out. Well, it wasn't exactly All-Star Break, but if you divide his season, Guriel's season, into halves, his first 71 games, he had a 681 OPS, his last 73 games, almost the same,

1087 OPS, batted 338 with 26 homers. And I remember we were doing the video show at the time on CBS Sports H.Q and we had Jim Bowden on and he was like they did, the Astros worked their computer magic

or whatever he said on Gueriel. So I think he was pretty convinced that it was legit. Well, you remember the reason I was curious how exactly how you broke it down because you remember

late summer he kind of caught fire and you know, maybe if you left for football as you did, that's that's your lasting impression of ui gruel but he came to a crash landing in september september was his worst month worst month of the season so it was july and august really that spike

and uh with power production unlike we've seen from him in the majors before in july especially he had an 18 game stretch where he homered 12 times 12 of his 31 home runs came during that 18 game stretch in july so Look, his fly ball rate was better, and he's always been a guy who makes a lot of contact, so maybe that's enough in this environment for him to take a big step forward. I have an easier time making an investment in him in points leagues because you know, you're going to get such an advantage with the low strikeout rate, not costing him points, that, you know, he'll still be pretty valuable even if he regress to like 23 homers from 31 or something like that.

But I would be surprised if he was that good again. I'm not sure if September was his worst month, because October was pretty bad too. 661 OPS in the playoffs. That stuff never really matters to be. Where were the, where was the, where were the trash cans? All right, yeah, so Gurriel, it doesn't sound like Scott's too interested in him as a top 120 pick. That's still pretty early.

I mean, we're still talking to a 12 team team team. Right. I mean, we're definitely investing in him heavier than we ever have before. But I don't want to push the issue too hard. I guess. And then Mancini, he's been in the league three years. One thing I'm sure you like this about Mancini too. He was consistent.

He batted 291 with 17 homers before the All-Star break. He batted 291 with 18 homers after the All-Star break in 14 fewer games. He didn't really stop. And he had a great year. 291 batting average, 35 homers, 200 and was a 203 combined runs and RBIs. And yeah. So this is his rookie. year was pretty good. His second year was miserable.

His third year was great. What kind of hit her? What kind of a player? Do you think Tray Mancinius Scott? And I apologize. We've got about two minutes left. I have something scheduled in a few minutes. I apologize. Go ahead. No problem. I think he's basically, I'm willing to buy into him.

Maybe he won't be quite as good as last year. But the ex-B-A supports the BA and the ex-WBA supports the Wobah. And like the problem for him heading into last year was he just didn't elevate the ball well enough. And it still wasn't a great fly ball rate for Mancini last year, but kind of like I was saying for Simeon, if you focus more on the drop and ground ball rate, that's really where you see the difference.

He hit a lot of, he hit the line drive and home and fly ball rates both improved enough together that I think you saw a significant difference in the production one that's backed up by data. This is another guy, though. I mean, if I'm worried about Cotel Marte's hard contact rate at 42%. Tray Mancini's 37.1%. That's terrible. So, you know, he's going at the same spot as Reese Hoskins. And are they both eligible at first and outfield?

I think they're good comps. I mean, that's another one of those fangraphs versus getting back to the hard hit rate. Okay. Tray Mancini's hard hit rate on Stackast is pretty good. And what that measures is actual, I think I got this right. Forgive me if I don't. Forgive me all you enlightened people out there if I'm saying this wrong. But stat cast measures actual video evidence of the contact when fan graphs is more of an indirect measurement based on, based on a few factors I don't remember.

but basically zones where it's hit. I'm going to be really annoyed if I have to start using another. It took me five years to get onto fan graphs. I was way behind. If I had to stop fan graphs because something better came along, what's next after stat cast, people?

This is why I don't trust these freaking numbers. There's going to be something else in two years, Scott, that made us feel like we were so wrong two years ago. Ridiculous. It's always getting better, though, Adam. I guess. I hear you. I hear you, and I've had that same rant before, too.

But it's always getting better. All right. So finish the show. Would you rather have Reese Hoskins or Traybhead C.D.? I would rather have Hoskins. I think easily in points leagues. It becomes tough in categories, though. All right.

That's Scott White. Thanks to Matt Snyder. Thank you all for listening. We're going to have another show. It's going to be on Friday. I meant to read some emails today, but we'll do it on Friday. We'll have a mini mailbag at the very least. Until then, see you later. I'm Alan.