Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/15: Top Prospects Part 1

Episode Date: January 15, 2019

We break down the top prospects you need to know about for the start of the 2019 season, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Eloy Jimenez, and more. Is Victor Robles being overlooked in Fantasy? (27:40) Is Josh James or Jesus Luzardo more likely to make an impact in 2019? (32:40) Can we finally trust Alex Reyes? (34:55) Plus your emails at [e-mail]. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We're talking about the young guys today on fantasy baseball today. I'm Chris Towers with Heath Cummings and Scott White, and we're going to be going through Scott's top 100 fantasy baseball prospects. Check it out on CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. It's one of our most popular pieces every year. And it's one of our best. You're going to go through guys who are going to be here in 2019, guys who might get up in July,

and guys that are going to make an impact for your dynasty team maybe three years from now. And it's really great stuff. Scott, thanks as always for writing it. Oh, thank you. Thank you for promoting it. So glowingly, I appreciate that. Anything I can do. Heath, we'll promote some of your stuff.

No one has ever said something I write is one of the best things that we do here. It's really disappointing. That's not true. You've never said it. I'm sure I have. Never. Well, Maybe one day.

All right. Shame the host right off the bat. Make them feel uncomfortable. It's the Heathcoming special. It's what we were missing for all these months. All right, we're going to start off. We'll catch you up on some of the latest news, but frankly, there's not really much going on around baseball right now.

So we'll start off with an email today. As always, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the way to get your emails on the show. We're starting to get a bunch of them in, so you want help. Setting your keepers, we'll do that. Just send us your emails of Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. Email of the day. From Mitch, we all realize it's good to be reactionary early in the season to find the next surprise Jose Valtista, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncie, or Jose Aguilar.

However, in Keeper Leagues, which assign auction slash draft price to future keeper costs, it can be difficult to cut your cheapest assets early, especially if they are young prospect you loved. It might regret dropping in a few years. given this risk should I only assign cheap costs to vets unless I can mentally commit to the prospect waiting roster spots, wasting roster space on my bench through September. What is a good percentage of my bench to use on speculative prospects? And he's talking about keeper leagues, but I think it applies to today's episode and to yearly leagues too. Basically, how many kind of dead roster spots are you willing to waste?

not waste use on a prospect of speculative yeah I'm assuming that this is a league with no minor league

spots yeah and I think it's I Scott will have probably a deeper answer to this but it's so

determined by how many roster spots you have I mean with a standard head to head roster if I've got

what five bench spots I wouldn't want to use more than two of them but I would hope in most keeper league

leagues, you've got 7, 8, 9 bench spots. And then I want to make sure I have enough of a bench to be able to field a competitive team. I'm much more worried about winning now. I mean, it depends to some degree on how deep the league is, too, because one of my earliest little sayings as a fantasy analyst was the bench is no place for backups. And what I meant by that is theoretically, your entire bench can be used to store upside players, whether it's in the short term or the long term.

But it becomes trickier when you play in a league so deep that the waiver wire doesn't offer anything usable, really. And then you kind of need to have a few spots reserved for true backups in case your starters get hurts. That's where versatile players come in handy, guys like Marwin Gonzalez. Max Muncie. Sure. Well, yeah, he's eligible at two positions still.

He was much more eligible last year, but much more versatile last year. But yeah. Yeah, I would say, and you know to some degree how much you end up using your bench players in your own league. Head-to-head points leagues, you probably need more pitchers to cycle in and out of your lineup for two start weeks. But I would, in general, I would use most of my bench with upside in mind, especially early in the season. So let's say a guy we're going to talk about a little later, but let's say Kyle Tucker, someone that a lot of people had stashed at the start of last season,

and he never made a difference for fantasy players. We don't really expect him to make the team out of spring, or at least there's a possibility he doesn't. How long are you hanging on to a guy like that? It depends on the depth of the league. 15-team, 5 outfielder league like Tau Wars all season. Okay. Pretty much any 5 outfielder league, I would say all season.

or, you know, at least until it becomes pretty clear he's not getting called up, which I don't expect to happen. Three outfielder leagues, you know, particularly head-to-head formats where you have to play matchups with pitchers. You know, if we get through April and there's still no talk of Kyle Tucker coming up, he's probably gone. All right, before we talk a little more about prospects in the second half of the show, let's move on to the latest news, like I said, not a time.

ton, but we've had a couple of news and notes come through the last couple of hours. Russell Martin was traded to the Dodgers. Wow. Doesn't really matter for fans. He's excited. I mean, if he plays a normal catcher's amount, he's probably a top 12 catcher. He's not going to play a normal catcher's amount. So we expect Austin Barnes to get the majority of the playing time here.

I kind of feel like Austin Barnes might be a post-type sleeper. Unless the Dodgers do something else, acquire somebody else. His elbow wasn't right last year from spring training and it kind of just threw everything out of whack. But there's still a very disciplined hitter there. Yeah, I think Russell Martin's time is done. So I expect Barnes to get at least 60% of share there, the share there to start out.

This does make me a little, because I kind of felt the same way about Barnes, and I still do. This makes me just a little bit less. excited or a little bit more concerned about having Barnes is my second catcher in a two-catcher league just because this gives the Dodgers an easier excuse to do something stupid. It is worth noting that the Blue Jays, a team that's much less prone to the kind of roster manipulation stuff that the Dodgers are. They played Rollsumart. I think he's eligible at third base this year, right? He is. Yes. Yeah. So he has a little bit of versatile.

something that we don't really see from catchers. So, you know, a team like the Dodgers who's so willing to flip guys in and out of lineup spots, it's possible that, you know, Austin Barnes can play second base. So, you know, there might be enough opportunities even with, even if Russell Martin catches pretty regularly. Keep your hands off Max Muncie's plate appearances. They didn't do it last year. I think he'll get them mostly at first base, Muncie.

I think Bellinger will play mostly outfield, Muncie mostly first. and Taylor mostly second, Chris Taylor. But they'll all probably play several different. And it's also worth pointing out that like over the last two seasons, Russell Martin has 717 plate appearances with a 208 average and a 698 OBS. He's awful. Yeah, he is. One thing we haven't mentioned is the other side.

I actually had to change my write-up for Danny Jansen in the top 100 prospects after this trade happened because he's the man now, right? that's you could make an argument for taking him among the top 10 catchers his little I haven't ranked faithful make the argument well he himself is a very disciplined hitter who I think should I think he could be the upside for him is what Jonathan Lucroy used to be and you know there's a chance he's uh I would like him better than Jan Goams I think in any range of possible outcomes just because you know Jansen's going to get on base.

I'll make the argument. Mike Zanino, Willington Castillo, Robinson Chorino, Tucker Barnhart, Jorge Alfaro. Those are the guys I have ranked behind him. Like that's, I don't want to start those guys. Yeah, I mean, there's a chance that one of those guys, you know, Jorge Alfarro still has plenty of, um,

I think the biggest thing for me, at least with Jansen, there are probably another 12 catchers in a head-to-head points league that you can start and have the 12th catcher and it's not going to make a huge difference on a week-to-week basis. Jansen could be somebody that makes a difference, so I'd rather draft him. Yeah, just to give some stats, he struck out 185 minor league played appearances. That's an extremely low strikeout rate. Walked about as often as he struck out, not a huge walk guy, but he walks enough. And over the last couple of years, has started to develop some power. He had career high five home runs going into 2017, hits 10 between three classes in

2017, hits 12 last year at Buffalo in the International League, not necessarily a great hitting environment. So, you know, we're starting to see the development of his bat in a way that could make him a very good fantasy catcher. Some other news, Dustin Padrejoi has been cleared to run and test his surgically repaired left knee. Any hope for Dustin Padraea this season? Is he in either one of your top 300s? No. Not top 300.

So you're not drafted. I could see in like an AL only league, him being kind of a sleeper pick. If he's healthy, I would expect him to get the majority of the starts there. And if he's healthy, you know, he never got away from making the kind of contact that would lead him to hit 290 plus. I don't want him to be hurt.

I want him to live a long, healthy, happy life. Don't you put that evil on me, Ricky Bobby? I would just much rather see Eduardo Nunez. But it is worth noting Eduardo Nunez wasn't particularly good in his own right last year. Yeah, it was awful. I would have been more willing to buy the, well, he's better than Padroa anyway argument

before last year. All right, some good news on the prospect front. We'll get to Nick Sends. a little later, but he did take his first swings in recent days since undergoing October elbow surgery. I'm not a doctor, but I would guess this gives him enough time to be ready for spring training. Yeah, that was an expectation all along. It doesn't look like there's going to be a job open to him, but there's been talk of him playing some outfield. I still don't know that that means there's a job open for him after the Reds just acquired two from the Dodgers. But we'll see. Maybe he

does get traded. We'll see. Updating Asmani Grandal signing with the Brewers, it does include a mutual option for 2020. That's relevant for people in Keeper Leagues, because we expect Milwaukee to be a very good place for him. Yeah, mutual options almost never get accepted because both parties have to want to do it, and he's probably going to be so good that he's worth more money

or so bad that he's not worth this money, but I'd like it if he'd just stay there out forever. Forever? Forever. All right. Kyle Murray seems likely to go to the NFL. Not hugely fantasy relevant, but he might have been a prospect if he had played baseball. Why can't he play both?

Quarterback's really tough, man. So? It's really hard. He can do it. Play both. I just, he has so, this is my thing with Kyleor Murray, is from a baseball perspective, he has so little experience playing against top level competition.

He's basically done one and a half college seasons, which is, you know, full college season is what a quarter of an MLB season. So I wasn't particularly excited about him as a fantasy baseball, a long-term dynasty option anyway, even if the potential skill set could have been valuable. But I don't think we really need to talk much more about it because it does not seem like he's going to play Major League Baseball.

Matt Davidson could be a Major League Baseball player as a pitcher and a third baseman. That's kind of interesting. Yeah. I don't think he'll, he'll, he's not pretty, really good at either. He throws hard. He hits hard. He does. Occasionally. He misses the strike zone and he misses the ball a lot. Hey, but he throws like 94 months and hour. He is a guy. Will Myers is expected to play full time in the outfield in 2019. We got a question in emails about whether he was likely to get first base eligibility. I think he's going to be,

is he outfield only coming into the season? He's outfield and third base. Okay, so outfield and third base. So at least for this year, he should have dual eligibility. And he's probably equally likely to be starting for you at outfield or third base. But moving beyond that, barring unforeseen injuries, he should be an outfield or only moving forward. Maybe a DH if they trade him. Yeah, I kind of hope they trade him. And I don't know that there's really any smoke there.

But if Will Myers is devoted to an outfield spot, That leaves two spots for Hunter Renfro, Franchi Cordero, Manuel Margo, and... Franmiel Reyes, who is the one I'm most excited about. I would hate to see him get pushed out. I mean, you have to think Manuel Margo would have the inside track on center field, and Hunter Renfro might and right field. They're all going to get 420 played appearances, exactly. Why'd you pick that number?

I just... There's a random number that I thought if I would, I picked us. Was it? Yep. Okay. Do you have a reason other than that? I don't know what you guys are talking about, but the Rays are closing in on

Aviso Garcia. We've seen him be fantasy relevant in the past. Not particularly so in 2018. Would you have any interest in him moving from a very good hitters park to an extremely bad one? I'm going to guess the answer's no. I mean, if they plan on revolutionizing him fly ball-wise? Sure.

This is a guy who hits the ball reasonably hard, but often hits it on the floor. Can I give you a fun Avicel Garcia effect? Yes. In 2017, his one good year in baseball. He had a 4.6 Babup. He had a 4.6 war. Okay. For his career, he has a 4.9 war.

So he hasn't been that good. But yeah, he had like a 406 Babup that year. It was wild. He's not good. I think last year it dropped to 270. That shows you the whole Babbip thing. Potentially relevant news. Derek Holland.

is returning to the Giants, and he was actually pretty good last year. Almost a strikeout per inning, not a terrible walk rate, a 357 ERA with decent-ish peripherals. He could be, he's someone that you could draft in a roto league, right? It'd have to be pretty deep.

I'd draft them in an NL-only league, which I know maybe that seems like no duh, but there's a certain level of pitcher that I'm unwilling to touch in that format just because I know they could only do harm to my ERA and whip. And I think Holland's better than that. Certainly at San Francisco

and certainly with the bat missing ability he showed last year, never before seen from him. Might be their second best pitcher. Might be their best if they trade mass and Bumgarner. Or if Matt is in Bumgarner's pitches like you did last year. I think he was probably still better than Derek Holland. But you have to think about it. A streaming option when they play at home.

For sure. Home streamer. All right, we'll get one more email before moving on to prospects. Again, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com is the email. This one's from Drew in London all the way across the sea from both directions. Some members of my Keeper League are interested in limiting people's ability to stream pitchers. So no Derek Holland. We already have a limit of five ads per week.

So I don't think there's a way we can go lower without hurting teams that, A, genuinely need the ads due to injuries, and B, teams looking to improve by getting better guys off waivers. So question one, is streaming a strategy that fantasy managers just need to deal with, especially if there's already an ad limit in place? And two, would switching to FAB or having players constantly be on waivers be a good middle ground to limit streaming? Three, why didn't we play the fantasy regulators music during this?

Because I don't have the drop. This is fantasy regulators. I don't have the drop. You could just make the noises. Thank you, Chris. Streaming, first off, my personal opinion is that limiting to five ads per week is too much limiting, and so I wouldn't further limit streaming as well. I do think if you switched over to Fab, it would probably help with it if you really think it's a problem.

But I think it's a part of the game. Yeah, I would want to have some kind of measure in place to curtail it. Did he say what kind of format this is? Well, they already have a limit of five ads per week. Right, right. No, that's what I'm saying. He has a couple in place already. Well, he already has that one.

I think Fab would help too. Beyond that, I don't think I'd do anymore. It is part of the game to an extent. If it's a points league, it's an absolute must to have some kind of roadblock in place. In a Categories league, I mean, there's a lot of downside to picking up a, a, picking up streaming pitchers just for volume, basically. I think an inning's maximum is a good way to go. It doesn't limit how many ads you can make,

but it does limit the raw counting stats you can add up. And, you know, in this situation, it's less so actually I think it's less relevant for pitchers than it is for hitters because there's only two raw counting stats that starting pitchers can add. But that's the easiest way to go. That kind of cuts the baby in half, so to speak. Why do we have to speak like that?

it's just a saying. I've never heard it before. It's like a, isn't like a, like a, like a, like a, like a, biblical thing?

Split the baby in half. Yeah. There's like the story about two people who say the baby's theirs and the king says, well cut the baby in half and give each side

one half of the baby and then the real mother says, no, the other person can have it. No, that's a thing. I've never heard, I've never heard the expression applied that with,

maybe. I haven't heard every expression before. It's an idiom. Right. You're an idiom. I was biting my tongue, not to say that. All right, well, now that we've established that I'm an idiom, let's move on to prospects, Scott.

This is your labor of love, and we'll get to that in time, but I wanted to start, because you're going to have a lot to say. And you've done a lot of research on this. You've put the blood. sweat and tears. But Heath is here also. And he's working on his, his rankings are going to be ready this week

for fantasy baseball. And I wanted to go through the top prospects that Heath has ranked. I went through his, well, we went through his top 260. I went through my own, 276. And here are the top prospects

that Heath will have ranked. Scott, just yell whenever I have something stupid. And most of these shouldn't be particularly surprising. Vladimir Guerrero is number one. surprising. I think you guys might be able to argue about this a bit, because I'm pretty sure, Scott, you have Vlad Guerrero top 30? Overall? For 2018? Yeah. No. No? I don't have him that high, although I'm still trying to figure out exactly how high I have him, but not that high now.

I will say. So Heath has him 65th. Where do you have him, Scott? Originally, I had him, I think, even a little lower than that, but I'm moving him up into about the round four range. So that would be between, uh, 48 and 60, right? 48 and 59. So that's round five. So basically, oh, well, before that that then, neither of you guys is really going to draft much Vladimir Guerrero this season. Probably not. What's his ADP? Well, when we've done mock drafts, it's been, you know, a lot in the early, uh, you know, late third, early, uh, you know, late third, early fourth range, if not earlier. I'm looking at NFBC right now.

And his is 38th. So yeah, you guys are the latest he's gone in any of their drafts, and that's 62 drafts total, is 60th overall. So, yeah. I guess I won't have him on any teams. That is disappointing. And your number two prospect is three spots later than him,

Elo Jimenez. Yes. Do we actually expect to see either one of these guys? in the majors on March 29th or whatever opening day is. If we do, somebody's messed up because there's no financial reason for either of these clubs to do that. The only argument with the way the service time rules work,

you know, you have to, I think it's 15 days in, you get an extra year of team control. So the only way it would make sense for a team to have them on the opening day roster is if they sign them to a long extension. That or they think the race is going to be that close that they need

that impact from the first two weeks. Well, I mean, the Blue Jays, White Sox aren't going to be in any kind of race. The only thing I thought is my only, I don't think there's really any chance that Vlad is there the first two weeks. And I'm not 100% certain that Vlad is going to be there immediately after those two weeks.

Like, he could make a fielding error at third base. That's another two months at least. I do wonder though if the White Sox land Machado. Yeah. If that part of their pitch to him is we're going to compete, we're going to put the best team on the field from day one. Yeah, I mean, the most notable recent example of that was probably Jose Fernandez with the Marlins. It wasn't about competing, but it was the year, I believe, after they tore their team down. And that was another, it was kind of a cynical attempt to get to garner fan interest. Clearly, both Iloh Jimenez, and Vladimir Guerrero are about as major league ready as a prospect could possibly be.

And you guys, Scott, where do you have Elohimenez ranked? I have him about three rounds behind Vladimir Guerrero, round six or seven, which I think is more realistic. It's more realistic I'm going to get him than Guerrero because... What's it is? You're not getting him if you're drafting with Heath because he has him 68. Elohimenez's ADP right now is 106. So I could have one.

Good. That's one that I would expect will rise. Yeah, I mean, I, listen, Flad was amazing last year. He was, both of them were amazing. I don't, I have a hard time separating them that much until we see in the major leagues. I think they're both extremely elite prospects

that should just absolutely crush. Yeah, I mean, if, if there was no Guerrero, Jimenez would be the guy everybody's tripping over themselves to draft, probably rising into round four himself. Which could make a little. Jimenez a pretty nice value. Yes. I think the presence of Guerrero keeps Jimenez's price tag from getting out of control because comparatively there's just not going to be as much hype. But in comparing him to all the top prospects of the last few years, Jimenez would be up there.

All right. And then you got to go a little ways down for Heath. Danny Jansen is number 135 in Rodo. Now, it's worth noting Roto is a two-category format. I would assume you have them a little bit lower and head-to-head. Two-catcher format. It was two categories, and one of them was on base percentage. I might take him even higher. But yes, yeah, the fact, the fact, and I don't think Scott necessarily,

I think he maybe packs just more catchers into the very end of his Roto rankings. I do rank catchers in the top 10 a little bit higher in Roto than I do in head-to-head. Sure. And I think that makes sense because the thing you have to balance in Roto versus head to head is there are a lot of catchers who just hurt you in Roto

and you have to start them. And so, you know, there are a lot of catchers in two category league, two catcher leagues. Two category leagues, especially. If one of the categories of stolen bases, they just don't help you at all. But even, you know,

your number 12 through 24 through 34, uh, catchers are, they're all kind of the same. They're low average, maybe 10 home runs, 50 R-B-B-like, you're talking about the dregs of the fantasy world, guys that wouldn't even be in the fantasy discussion

if they played any other position. And so that does change the calculus, especially in a Roto format. And head-to-head, you get points either way, so they're not necessarily hurting you. But Roto, there are catchers who can actually drag you down. If you think Danny Jansson's going to be one of the ones who doesn't drag you down,

that is a big boost to his value. Heath, your next top prospect was you say Kikuchi. And I think you're a bit higher on him in your first run than either Scott or I. You have him 1 38th overall. I'm just, and Scott and I talked about this last week, there are concerns about his workload. There are concerns about the strikeout potential injury concerns. So I think there is certainly a case to be made that he can be an exciting pitcher this year.

I don't think he has top 12 upside by any stretch of the imagination, but I think there's a very good chance that he can come in and be 150, 160 innings of a low 3s ERA with a good whip, and the strikeout numbers aren't going to be great, but I don't think they're going to be terrible either. Let's move on to a guy that I think is going to be seriously underrated in fantasy this season and is going to be a great value for drafts. And that's Victor Robles.

He only played 73 games in total last season between the majors and minors. He only played 114 games or 127 games the year before. Injuries have been an issue for him. But all he's done, anywhere he's gone in the minors, is hit 300 and run. And if you can do those two things, I mean, Starling Marte is someone that we're taking, you know, third or fourth round in Roto leagues.

I think Victor Robles has peak Starling Marte potential, you know, those years when he was hitting 20 homers and stealing 40 bases and hitting 290. And Scott, you have him as your number five fantasy prospects. So I would tend to think you agree. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if we would rank him the same place among major leaguers, but he's been considered an elite prospect for three or four.

years now and finally looks like he's going to get his chance last year's minor league numbers were pretty awful but he was coming back from a hyper extended elbow that cost him a big chunk of time at the start of the year once he got to the majors there

wasn't really that sent in the majors kind of erased doubts about lingering effects from the elbow and it's worth noting pretty awful was a 276 average and a 60 steel pace for 150 games. Yeah, right.

It mostly impacted the power production, which was on the rise, and then there was just nothing in the miners last year. But he hit three home runs in the majors and fewer than 100 of bats. So there was something there. I think Starlighte is a pretty good comparison. I think there's a good chance he walks more than Marte did,

so maybe the gap between head-to-head and roto value wouldn't be as high. am most excited to draft him in Roto leagues just because he does seem like one of it, just a handful of players who could deliver 40 plus steals. How about this? Off-brand Adelberto Mondesie.

I mean, he's a bigger prospect than Monashy, but at least in terms of fantasy cost in 2018, Adelberto Mondesies is going to cost quite a bit more than Victor Robles. Robles may not have the power potential that Alberto Montesie does, but Monashy is not

going to hit 300 either oh no no there's no chance of that and he could be he could be better than Mundasey I I'll be curious and we haven't he ran a lot in the minors he hasn't really had enough major league games to say whether he's going to run or not he's caught sole three bases and been caught three times so I mean he's got a little bit to prove as far as being a base dealer in the major leagues sure and and one other thing to note is as I've mentioned a couple times in the offseason Trey Turner only really ran at an elite pace when he was the Leof hitter. So how the Nationals stacked their lineup could potentially impact how often those guys steal, as would whether Bryce Harper returns.

Because I think they'll be much more willing to run when Bryce Harper's not around. Some other guys Heath has ranked Francisco Mejia, expected to be at least part of a catching share on opening day in San Diego. I hate that situation. Yeah, I mean, Austin Hedges is good enough to start. He's just not a very interesting fantasy officer. option. We'd much rather see Francisco Mejia get a full-time spot. Scott, how do you think they split the playing time there? I think it's pretty close to a 50-50 split to start out, to start out. And then if Mejia hits like we think he's capable, he'll wrestle more of that playing time away. Hedges has some power, but beyond that, I think the totality of his offensive game is

is pretty offensive, frankly. Yeah, and he's really just in there for the fielding. And Mahia is a good power prospect with really, really good play discipline, a lot like Danny Jansen, actually. I mean, Mahia, the most notable thing about Mahia, and it happened a couple years ago at this point, but he had a 50-game hitting streak in the minors. I didn't say 15.

I said 50. It's pretty good. Yeah. I mean, beyond even. power. I mean, he homered twice in his first start with the Padres. So yes, he has some power, but he has really good back control. His bat would translate to some other position if he had to go there. And the Indians were, yeah, they were trying him out of third base. And I think in the outfield as well in the miners. Yes. He didn't, it seemed like, but he his own reluctance was part of the reason that didn't

ultimately happen and why he's with the Padres now. All right, some other prospects Heath has ranked inside of his top 76, but most of these guys... 276. 276. Thank you. You're welcome. Tucker 196, like we said, it's just a question of playing time. He's proven all you can prove in the minors, but the Astros are so stacked.

Jesus Lazzardo, Josh James, two guys who have a chance to crack the spring training roster, or the opening day rosters, and we expect Josh James to, given that he made his major league. debut last year. Yeah, I just think Lizarro is better. So I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we don't see Lazzardo until end of April, early May. It could be even longer than that. James will make more starts in April, but I think Lizarro will be better.

Williams Estudio at 247. Just let the man play. There's a chance he doesn't make the opening day roster. Yeah. What a shame that would be. I think he's a top 10, top 12 fantasy catcher if he gets a reasonable amount of playing time. Just such a weird player. The best.

Because never strikes out. Like, never strikes out. Like, he's probably relative to the league average, one of the least strikeout prone players in Major League history. But he never walks either. Doesn't really profile well anywhere defensively. The Twins tried him in a few spots last year. He's with his fourth or fifth organization.

So this isn't. But he's also developed into a legitimately interesting, like. Yeah. No, I mean, he, he, used to be interesting. Like, oh, wow, look at this weird guy. Now he's, the last couple of years, he's just been good. Yeah, he has. And he is inside of your top 100 prospects right at the end. Thank you. I like to think that was just a nod to me. Well, it was, it was, at the end of my top 100, since it is mostly geared for fantasy owners, I'd like to include a lot of players who I think

could make a fantasy relevant contribution more or less right away and yeah as somebody with catcher eligibility as studio I mean last September he was I was starting him in a couple leagues a couple 12 team one catcher leagues but there doesn't seem to be a path to playing time to begin the season

and considering he's a 27 year old who doesn't really profile anywhere and is on his fifth organization however many it's been. There's a chance he just never gets another opportunity. Start Williams Ashto, you cowards. And the last one in Heath's top 276. Alex Reyes at 266, there is 0% chance he actually finishes in the 266 range.

He's either going to be a top 15 starting pitcher or he's going to make five starts and blow up again, which has been the case two years in a row. I'm trying to think the path to him being 266. 66 is probably... They let him make 10 starts. Then he pitches out of the bullpen in a non-closer roll for a couple of months,

and then they shut him down. He's probably still better than 266 in that. A pitcher, yes, but overall, I don't know. Yeah, that's... That's, yeah. Where was Josh Hader last year? Oh, well about that. Yeah.

I don't think he's going to throw as many innings as Josh Hater. But this is a guy who has... He makes 10 starts. There's 50. There's 50 innings. Where are the rest coming from? So this is a guy, we've talked about him for, what, four years now, has legitimate number one overall pitcher stuff.

And there's not a ton of guys that you can say that about. It's just been a question of him staying healthy. He had Tommy John surgery after making his major league debut, and then came back, had, I think Scott, you called it the best, the best Tommy John surgery rehab assignment of all time. He struck out like 52% of opposing batters he faced. And it was basically no hitting everybody every time out. He was incredible.

He was incredible. He was incredible. He was incredible. He was insane. And then he came up, pitched, what, three innings, five innings? And tore his lap. And now he's recovering from that. And now you have to wonder, can his body hold up?

But there's a lot of a lot of, upside. He's not getting drafted 266, I would guess. Oh, no, I think people are going to draft him a lot earlier. I just, like, his innings cap is probably 100 innings. Hmm. Yeah, that's, that's tough. It's really hard to be good. Like, he'll be good, I would expect, for a month or two this season. You know what the best case scenario might be? He closes. Alex Ray is closing. Yes, that is the best case scenario. That, that has been discussed. I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think that's the case scenario for a dynasty league owner, I mean, as much as you have

invested in this guy. Sure, but 2019 fantasy redraft value. I think the best case scenario is he goes out there and, or picks up 40 saves and strikes out 12 batters per nine. Or the Cardinals, they wouldn't do this, but if they came out and said, we're just going to use him until the

All-Star break, and then we're going to shut him down. And you knew you could draft him and have an ace for the first three. That'd be great, but that's not the way these things usually work. Yeah. I don't know why more often and teams don't do the reverse of that. Okay, you want your best arms there for a potential playoff run.

You can't let them lay fallow for two months, you know? Like, they're going to have to throw in that time. They can play catch. Yeah, but you're still. Extended spring training? Like, are you just going to not have them start spring training until April? Not at all. Just no spring?

Yeah. Okay. Yeah, extended spring training. Yeah. I don't know. Practice bunting. All right. Let the lat heal more, you know?

Let it heal. All right. So let's move on to the prospects. We'll go through. There's a couple of different categories here with Scott's prospects. If you go through the article, he has a write-up for everyone, their stats. And then basically their chances of playing in 2019. Some of them don't have any chance.

Some of them maybe get a cup of coffee. Some of them will be seen in the mid-season. We'll focus on the guys who are fighting for a spring training spot. and guys that you can pencil in. Starting with Victor Robles, as we've already mentioned, almost assured the center field starting job for the Nationals. Does Bryce Harper's potential resigning change that at all? I think it may.

If that happens, then the Nationals are either going to go with a very bad center fielder, be it Eaton or Harper himself, or Eaton's. just going to be out of lock. Yeah. It could be Michael Taylor. It could be Michael Taylor. And in that case, Eaton would still be out of luck. But, yeah, I think if they're going to defensive route in center field, they just call up Robles. All right, number 29 for you, someone you expect to play. He was already, he probably should have lost his prospect status,

but he suffered a serious hamstring injury at the end of last season. Louisa Ria's second basement for the Padres. What kind of fantasy potential is that? here, Scott. Very interesting prospect, Arias, because he doesn't look like the sort of player who really has a place in today's game. So

contact-oriented his profile with very little actualized power. But his exit velocities have rated among the top power hitters in the minors throughout his time there.

He did make more of an effort to elevate the ball last year, it still didn't lead to great results. But the guy's 21 years old. And I think, I think just assuming he's never going to develop power is selling him short, especially knowing this could be a perennial batting title contender. So, you know, maybe he's only DJ Lemayhew. He did start striking out more last year. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, in part because he was trying to elevate the ball. Like, I see a lot of. reason for long-term optimism for Eureus. I don't right now have him in my top 300, but I, because I just don't know how he's going to help you. Like, he should contribute in batting average, although he has been a $290 hitter in the minors at $296 in the PCL with no-pop.

I give him, last year was kind of weird, because he was tinkering with his swing and, you know, the downside to the flyball revolution. is you're not keeping the bat flat through the zone. But that was pretty much his batting average every year except for one year in high A. Okay. I mean, $290 is very good. But $290 with no steals and no home runs is not, it's not particularly, I hope that he develops the power.

And he probably will at some point. I don't know that it'll be this. Yeah. I feel like probably in the immediate future, his, He's best utilized in deep points leagues where the low strikeout rate is going to help elevate him. But it's deep enough that you're not going to miss the power so much. All right. Next up, you say Kikuchi, as we talked about. Do you think he has, is he more interesting, Scott, to you, in a dynasty league or a redraft league?

A redraft. Okay. Yeah. I just don't see the long-term upside that some of the guys in his range. Well, clearly the ceiling isn't as good as most of the pitchers in my top 100. And yeah, a lot of those pitchers aren't going to realize their ceiling. The good thing about Kukuchi is, and this sounds funny to say, considering he hasn't pitched in the majors yet.

But compared to the average pitching prospect, you know what you're getting. You know the odds are very good that you're going to get. something highly usable, something you wouldn't ever consider dropping. And prospects, as their name suggests, are very hit or miss. But as we were saying about him earlier, like his upside is probably a number three pitcher in fantasy. And he's older than most of these guys. He's 27.

A lot of pitchers who come over from Japan don't just stay here until they retire. they end up going back after a few years. And we have no idea how his career is going to unfold as far as that goes. But, yeah, I want to just assume he has eight to ten years in the majors. All right. One, the next one, barely qualifies as a prospect. I think he makes of him by one day, or one at bat. That's Brandon Lowe's second baseman for the raise.

Is he going to play second base for the race? Brandon Lowe. Lowe. And I don't know. Sorry. I don't know. Yeah, it's weird. Is the first base Ray?

Is it Nathaniel Lau or is it Nathaniel Lowe or is it Nathaniel Lowe? That is Nathaniel Lowe. They're not related. But they are spelled exactly the same. That's confusing. Nathaniel Lowe's brother Josh Lowe is in the Ray's system. Does he go by Lowe or Lowe? But they're spelled exactly the same.

Yeah. Matt Dias. Similar situation. You could pronounce your name however you want. So Brandon Low did come up, got his, I'd say it was a little more than a cup of coffee. He played 43 games for the race, mostly started. Only hit 233, struck out a decent amount,

but he did hit six home runs, drove in 25 runs. What's his prospect profile? I like Brandon Lowe much more than the standard prospect list seems to like him. I think the knock on him is he doesn't profile, doesn't have a clear place where he profiles defensively. that doesn't matter to us that that well except to the extent that he gets playing time and that is a legitimate concern because the rays do have a lot of middle infield options they have a lot of outfield option those are the two spots where he's able to play uh if you look at roster resource right now they don't show him in the starting lineup they don't even show him on the major league roster though i'd have a hard time believing he doesn't get a job based on the way he performed last year huge season in the minors uh he hit for average he hit for big time power. He's always walked a lot. And even though, you know, the major league numbers

might not blow you away at first glance. He had 233, like he said, he had one of those weird Alex Bregman type starts to the career where just everything was going wrong. Everything that could go wrong went wrong. O for 18 to begin his major league career. And then after that, he had 273 with an 884 OPS, which was more along the lines of what I think everybody was hoping for. So I think if he does find semi-regular bets between the outfield and second base, I think there's a good chance he hits 20 plus home runs with the above-average on-base percentage might be what a lot of people were hoping Ian Hap would be last year, except, you know, it doesn't strike out like Hap does.

That's part of the reason why there's optimism. there. All right. Next up is Danny Jansen. We've talked enough about him. So let's move on to a guy that I think you both are just too low on. He doesn't have Garrett Hampson in his top 300 for 2019. Scott, I'm not sure of you do.

But you only have him 55th amongst fantasy prospects. And I get not being super bought into him as a real-life prospect. And I think there's the low, pop, high-contact, speed guy is a prospect profile that busts fairly often because once you start getting in the majors and you start getting challenged by real stuff,

you can't play that game anymore. But he's going to be in course field. He's probably going to strike out. He might be in Albuquerque. He'll hit well there too. Okay, yeah. The bigger question is whether he's going to play.

And then, you know, he's going to be in kind of a three-way competition in spring training for the starting second base job because Daniel Murphy is expected to start a first base for the Rockies. So it's going to be Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson, and Brendan Rogers. I don't really think Brendan Rogers, given how much he took a step back last year in the minors, is really a contender for that. He's the best prospect of the three. Yeah, although he's, his prospect shine has lost a little bit, but he would really have to stand out in the spring, I would guess, to overcome service time and recent performance.

Ryan McMahon, I don't think he's considered as much of a prospect as Garrett Hampson. Not really a natural... Hamson's a shortstop, who should be a very good second baseman. McMahon can play everywhere. Yeah, but I wonder if that's... All of the positions.

He can't play anywhere. And they just didn't really give him a chance last year. That's absolutely true. They did a lot of very stupid things with old players and young players last year, And that's part of the reason I'm worried about Hampson, just because I feel like they're going to sign a 42-year-old second baseman soon and are not going to be talking about this anymore.

But I would prefer to see McMahon there because I think that he has more upside in terms of fantasy potential. He has shown a ton of power in the minor leagues. He was pretty bad in a limited basis last year. If either of these guys is named the starting second baseman, they will definitely be in my top 276. Yeah, I think given the first. state of baseball right now.

I just look at Garrett Hampson as a prospect, and, you know, he hit 10 home runs last year, which not great, but it's not nothing. Stole 36 bases, but that was only 110 games. He's hit above 300 every single season in the minors with, you know, at least a 377 on base percentage. A guy with 50 steel potential on 300 average playing in cores, like that's a 300 average. mostly not playing in the kind of hitting environments where that Cores is. Albuquerque is very similar, if not arguably a little better.

But Cores boost the Babbip. You could be looking at a guy who, you know, regularly, like D.J. Lemay, you regularly puts up 360 Babbos. And with his speed, it's not out of the question that he's hitting 310 with 50 steel. Well, and he's a good doubles and triples guy, too, and that's a good part for doubles and triples guy on top of it like the best case scenario for hampson is is i think higher than a lot of people would even believe i mean it might even be like second round type production like a like garrick hampson it's just there are so many potential hurdle like so many potential

uh speed bumps for toward that best case scenario for how much is he going to play are they going let him run to the full extent he can, even if he does hit, because he doesn't have that power profile that people expect today and certainly in course fields, will they always be trying to mix other guys in? I don't, I would be, I just shrug to all of that. I have no idea. But I, it's, it's, I would love to draft Hampson in the late rounds, particularly in a Roto League, but I don't think I can reach for him earlier than that. Yeah, and he is going in NFBC drafts like

183rd, so. It's a little soon. It's, it's an investment I'm willing to make. I will say that. What was this, what was the 16th round? 183. Yeah, that's a little early for me, but, you know, if he's making a lot of noise this spring, obviously that'll change.

All right, well, uh, move on to the last guy that you have penciled into a starting role, uh, to open the season and that is well we'll go with another email fantasy base bot cbsi dot com hey twilight adventure land and snow white anyone want to take a crack that would be christin stewart so i guess we're talking about christin we are talking about tigers prospect christin stewart outfielder number 67 in scott white's overall top 100 fantasy prospects there is no chance you see him there on a non-fantasy list. What are your thoughts on Tigers outfielder, Kristen Stewart, as a potential breakout

candidate, seems like there's power here, and based on his plate discipline, maybe big OBP upside? Could he be a mini Juan Soto who goes 300 picks later? Talk me out of taking him as my fifth outfielder in every single points or on base percentage league? One Soto, I think, is not a fair comparison. Too high. A mini one Soto.

But he's bigger than Wonsato, right? I don't think his hit tool, Kristen Stewart's hit tool, is near Wantsona. So just put that under your mind. I think the comparison I'm hoping Stewart delivers on as Carlos Santana, which I know will not be, to some people won't be exciting at all. I mean, it just depends on the depth of your league and the scoring format. But any five outfielder league, any league that heavily rewards walks, somebody you need to pay attention to in the late rounds. because there is no reason the Tigers wouldn't play him. He was their everyday left-fielder down the stretch,

even though he's terrible there. And they don't really have any alternatives. They might as well try him out, even if he is not really somebody they want to trust in left-field long-term because he can't play defense. And the minor league stats to throw them out there, 262 batting average, 363 on-base percentage, averaged about 30-1 home runs per 150 games.

So there's a lot of pop there. And, you know, the batting average you would hope would be higher. He does strike out quite a bit. Yeah, although not like, you know, we're not talking like alarmingly so. It's fewer than a strikeout per game. You're looking at about, I know, 22% there. You know, you would expect that to go up in the majors. And he struck out 13 times in 72 played appearances last year.

That's not bad. That's a small sample size. But. Right. I think he is an interesting fantasy. prospect and definitely someone worth targeting in your fifth rounds. What do you think, Scott? Your fifth rounds? Sorry, your fifth outlander spot. Late in five outfielder leagues, yeah. I'll probably take him into reserve. That's exactly what I said. Reserve rounds.

Yeah, I get that. And, you know, there's a chance that the bat just craters, but that's an interesting profile and not someone who has a ton of hype around him. We were slow. today. That's weird. So I think we're going to have to, it doesn't sound like us at all. We're going to have to push off some of the other prospect guys

for Friday's episode, but I think that's fine. I think we can make that work. There's not a lot to talk about right now anyway. So we'll finish up prospects talk on Friday. We'll start talking about some starting pitcher rankings for both Scott and Heath. Maybe we'll look at some places that they disagree

in their early rankings. Guys, anything else? Anything else? What do you want to say? No. All right. Thanks for listening to the Fancy Baseball Today podcast. He didn't want an awkward ending like Adam, so he dumped it on us. Exactly.

And we weren't prepared for that. That's a pro move. It just made it worse. I felt pretty prepared. But it made you look good. Come back soon out.