Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Pirates Trades and Bounceback Candidates

Episode Date: January 16, 2018

Andrew McCutchen (0:30) and Gerrit Cole (7:50) are on the move! We react to the trades and tell you why McCutchen might not be impacted by the new ballpark and why Cole might be in for a big season. And do these deals hurt Felipe Rivero? ... More news from around MLB (31:00) including some competition for Fernando Rodney in MIN (31:50) ... Part one of Bounceback Week features Mookie Betts (34:00), Kris Bryant (38:36) and Josh Donaldson (43:41). Can they perform like elite hitters again? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We've got some big scler, rookie, streakers, number geekers, bunch of podcasts, wisdom seekers. We've got some big baseball trades. Volvings of Pittsburgh Pirates. So on the back of your three-day weekend, everybody. Hope you had a great, great weekend. And hope you're ready to talk some fantasy baseball. I am Adam Azer with Heath Cummings, with Scott White, with Chris Towers. Eric Cole is on the Astros, and Andrew McCutcheon is on the Giants.

Can I hate on Andrew McCutcheon now and not get as much blowback as I got last year? Why? Because you went to the different team? Yeah, I mean, it's a terrible ballpark. Did you think it was some kind of like Pittsburgh-based mafia that was coming after you for your Andrew McCutcheon takes? Could there be a worst ballpark for a hitter? I mean, this is like the worst ballpark. Well, I mean, Pittsburgh is a pretty bad place for right-handed hitters too. I don't know if you want to get into the full analysis yet.

How about this? How about this? Andrew McCutcheon made his entire season on one 63 game stretch, and he was terrible. Every other game. How many times do we have to do this? Like, one more time at least. Player, well, no, not about him. Just like, no player just hits.

No player gets 1.6 hits every five played appearances for the entire season. Like some guys are going You're going to have a four hit game And then a one hit game Mike Trout has up and down So like what about This idea that you can But you're using it to take away

From his entire season When what you should do is just say Look at his 2017 numbers Did something happen At the beginning of the stretch And then at the end Did he like Start a new training regimen

I know you always say that Soda in the morning But what about the fact that I mean he was bad for about 60% of his season Like really bad And he was trending down before that. That doesn't matter to you at all. I just...

Do you have the numbers? Yeah, of course I have the numbers. How bad he was? Sure. So, Andrew McCutcheon, in his first 47 games, had a 631 OPS. In his next 633 games, he had an 1126 OPS. In his last 46 games, 698 OPS. So 47 games with a 631 OPS, then a great stretch.

Then 46 games with a 698 OPS. So if it had been like 22 bad games and then 17 good games and then 14 bad games and then 27 really, really good games and then 40 kind of okay game. No, no, no, no, no, no. I don't think the shape of the season matters that much. Okay, fine. That's fine. That's all you had to say. That's all you had to say.

When you look at this career, trending down yes, 952 OPS, 889 OPS, 766 OPS, 849. There is a downward trend, but 2016 looks more like the outlier for Andrew McCutcheon than anything else. It's like, I don't know, I'm going to expect Andrew McCutcheon to be pretty good next year. Yeah, definitely. And the park thing, it's mostly a terrible park for left-handed power hitters. It's a bad park for right-handed hitters as well. But the park that is just as bad almost, like just barely above it for right-handed power hitters, is PNC?

I looked at ESPN's home run tracker was down or something, so I had to look at baseball savant. I'm not as confident reading their ballpark overlays because I haven't done it as much, but assuming I was reading it right, Andrew McCutcheon would have lost three home runs last year if he played every game at PNC Park. He would have lost four if he played every game at AT&T Park.

And while all three of the ones he lost at P&C were pulled, to left field, a couple of the ones he lost at AT&T were hit the opposite way. I mean, I... It's a negligible difference. Right. It's a better line. Much better. Okay, but McCutcheon.

All right, so here's a deal. So we'll start off talking about these Pirates trades, right? We got McCutcheon and McGarrett Cole. We got Garrett Cole going to the Astros. And then they also signed Felipe Rivera, who might be playing for a terrible team. And despite him being truly elite last year, I mean, his numbers were just outstanding. You know, he might not get that many saves. But anyway, we'll do this.

And then we got some emails to read, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. But it's bounceback week. I want to talk about some bounce back candidates. I looked at some players who were drafted later this year than they were last year. Okay, obviously. But even some high-end players like Mookie Betts and Chris Bryant. And when I say drafted this year, I'm talking about in the mock drafts that we did recently. So I compared Mookie Betts, Bryant, Donaldson, A.J. Pollock, Matt Carpenter, John Lester,

Trevor Story and Cole Hamels, where they were drafted last year and where they were drafted so far very, very early in this 2018 fantasy baseball season. So we will take a look at them and whether or not they can bounce back. But yes, let's spend some time on McCutcheon and Garrett Cole. So I guess we're talking about McCutcheon first. Now you talk about the home runs. He had 28 home runs last year. And obviously, if you listen to this podcast, I hated Andrew McCutcheon. I thought he was done.

The pirates were trying to trade him. He had a really bad 2016 season. everything seemed to be going in the wrong direction. The guy didn't steal a lot of bases anymore, and he only stole 11 last year. His home runs really didn't stand out in this environment. A lot, and I think, I'm pretty sure I said, I'm okay with him in points leagues, but I really didn't want him in any categories leagues, and McCutcheon is better, a lot better in points. He was ninth in points at outfield.

He was 15th in Roto. But you talk about the home runs. I know you guys like the advanced data. He had his highest ground ball rate since 2013. He had his lowest hard contact rate since 2011. Andrew McCutcheon had his second highest home run to fly ball ratio of his career. So even last year with the 28 home runs, tell me that that makes sense. I don't think it does.

I think he got lucky. I still think he's bad. I think he's going to be a bust. I appreciate your willingness to double down. Thank you. I think, as Chris was even saying earlier, like, there is a trend of decline here, and it's even more pronounced on the defense. side of it. I would guess that's why the pirates got so little for McCutcheon is because teams just don't

perceive him as that valuable anymore. And when you begin that decline, you know, it's not a big stretch to just see him dropping off a cliff at some point. And so there is that danger with McCutcheon now at this stage of his career. I don't think I'm going to have many shares in McCutcheon because of that. But at the same time, it's a top 15 outfielder. I don't really know how you argue against that. Yeah, and like, it's not like you have to pay a premium for him. He went 68th in our most recent mock draft. That's not a discount, but it's certainly not paying for what he was last year either.

I think he's probably going to be someone who's just decent, not great, but you're never really going to think about sitting Andrew McCutche. To give you, also, you're right. I would not expect him to 28 home runs next year. It's probably closer to 23. or 24 like he has been almost every career. Okay, sorry, I thought you had more. Is that what you were going to say?

That was your point. Heath is here, by the way. It's tough to squeeze in there. He's just been an observer. All right, Heath. What about Garrett Cole? Value up down to the same, going from Pittsburgh to Houston. No question.

Value up. He's got a chance to win a lot more games. I don't have any concerns about his role in the rotation. There's already talk coming out of Houston that Brad Peacock is going back to his super reliever position, which I think makes a lot of sense because he's really good in that position. And they have injury-prone pitch. pitchers on this roster.

So, yeah, maybe they have seven or eight starting pitchers on the roster. They're going to need all of them. There's never been any question he's going to start as long as it's healthy. Right. I feel like they acquired Cole. Well, I feel like the most obvious reason there are so many layers to this deal. So we may talk about it a while. That they didn't have to give up anything for him?

Well, I feel like the most obvious reason they got Cole is because he was, some innings they could count on, and they have a rotation full of pitchers, aside from Verlander, that don't have innings they can count on. So, yeah, Cole's definitely a fixture in it. Now, is he the best pitcher? Is he one of their top three pitchers inning for inning? I don't know that he's one of their top five pitchers inning for inning. I was kind of disappointed from a fantasy's perspective because it means I'm probably going to have to move Peacock down.

Now, there's obviously no chance he's going to get 180 innings now. But at the same time, I don't, I didn't really think there was a good chance he was going to get 180 innings anyway. And I've said, you know, a few times on this podcast already this off season, I don't think McCullors, Lance McCullors, is ever going to be 180 inning pitcher. Charlie Morton, you know, it's questionable. We'll see him get to that level again. Like Keith was saying, they're going to need all those pitchers. And I think by design, they're going to need all those pitchers. I don't know if Peacock's projection really changes that much with this move because I think between McCullors, Morton, and Peacock, they are going to be mixing those guys in.

It's going to be like what we saw of a lot from the Dodgers, the phantom injuries, the temporary removals, the skip starts, the shifting to the bullpen for all of them. Now, Peacock's value still goes down. He's not going to be a top 40 pitcher for me anymore because. because you're going to draft him and he's just going to sit there and you're going to have to wait and wonder when he does get his chance to start. And that's going to be frustrating. And you may not have the patience for that ultimately. But will the final line look that different? I'm not sure, given the way we're seeing teams manage their rotations now, and especially teams like the Astros and, of course, the Dodgers.

You know, Sarah sort of really short for fan graphs, but a good piece on why the Astros might be the perfect landing spot. for Garrett Cole. And basically it was kind of, there's a couple of things. One, I had seen this on Twitter. This looks like a really bad park change for Cole because of the home run factor. But strikeouts are about 10% higher at Houston's home park than they are at PNC. So it's been a much better strikeout park than Pittsburgh has been, which makes sense. The batter's eye changes those types of things.

But more than that, it was that Cole throws his fastball too much. Yes. And the Astros, as a staff, throw their fastball less than just about anyone. Yep. So they were saying you could probably expect he's going to throw more curves, and his curves pretty good. Yeah, that was the secondary reason. I think the Astros acquired Cole is because they really like Garrett Cole. And the Astros above any organization have learned how to mine the data with pitchers to get something out of them that the pitcher himself never even knew he had.

We saw it with Brad Peacock, obviously, with Colin McHugh, with Charlie Morton. It's just fine unearthing these data gems and kind of reshaping a pitcher's arsenal around that. So if we do that with Cole, a former number one overall pick. What's interesting about that is the pirates kind of have a similar – what's the word? People view them kind of similarly, but it's almost like the opposite. it. The pirates tend to do better with less talented pitchers. And that fastball-ball-heavy approach has been really helpful for someone like Yvonne Nova. But, you know, Garrick-Kohl, for as hard as he throws, his fastball results have been pretty mediocre.

He throws at 60 to 65% of the time most years. The league is moving away from that. And the Astros are leading that move. And here it is, just to give some credit, it was Derek Cardi, actually, on Twitter. Pittsburgh's home park actually has the 18th Wobar rank. Houston's is down at 21st, and that's because strikeouts are up 5%

at Houston. They're down 6% at Pittsburgh. Well, what is that measuring? Like how many years? Yeah, well, I wonder like when, what the time frame for that, how they account for. That seems weird to me.

Performance at a park versus performance away. I'm not 100%. I don't know what the data there is. Well, all right. So, Garrett Cole, You guys have him around 30th in your rankings. And he's coming, you know, like, you can look at the 2016 season and the strikeouts were down, but he was coming off 2015. He was the number eight pitcher in fantasy with a 260 ERA and 202 strikeouts and 208 innings.

2016, he's got a 273RA and his first 173 ERA and his first 16 starts, which was interrupted by injury. And then Cole has a terrible finish. Last five starts, 837 ERA. just with a 380-A, but he had like a 333 FIP. He had a really high BABIP. I guess you could say he got unlucky in 2016. I don't know what the explanation is for 2017. The guy just didn't pitch well.

426 ERA. It's two straight seasons of not pitching very well, Adam. I agree. Which is why I was saying inning for inning, he's probably not one of the Astros five starters right now. Now, if they work their analytic magic on him, I think with this trade, it's reasonable to think there's breakout potential for Cole now. But to clarify, he was not one of their top five pitchers last season.

His season in 2016, it wasn't good. It was a 3-3-3-fip. And Charlie Morton and Brad Peacock for their careers, except for last season, would kill for that. Last two seasons, Cole has an ERA over four, a whip close to 1.4. I mean, no, it's a little over 1-3. But it's not good, is the point. Like, inning for inning, he has not been a very good pitcher, except for that one year, 2015. But you don't like maybe it changes.

I'm willing to move Coles up some with this move. I'm not exactly sure how far. He's always been a pitcher who seems like he should be better. I think we can all agree on that. You watch Garrett Cole. Forget about the fact that he was 1-1. Forget about the fact that you just, you watch him pitch and the results should be better. He's got a below-average swinging strike rate each of the last two seasons.

He hasn't been above league average in strike-out rate, I believe, since 2004. 14. He's just, he hasn't been as good as we think he should be. I agree with that, but last year was his first year with a FIP over 333. Okay. But in 2016, he had a 333 FIP with a 6.8 home run to flat ball rate. His career rate is 10%. And his Sierra was 424. It was actually the worst of his career. You can look at different advanced stats. I just, I don't think anybody can look at the way he pitched in 2016 and come away with a conclusion that he wasn't anything but mediocre. And the other thing is the home runs. This is a guy who going obviously to a really small park, but last year, Cole gave up 31 home runs. He had never allowed more than 11 in a season.

So he's got to get back to getting more ground ball. The ground ball rate's still pretty good. But I don't know, that 31 home runs was crazy last year. And maybe he just has to learn how to pitch better. Maybe he just needs to use that arsenal more. And like Scott had been saying that there's room for upside. Well, all of you seem to be saying that there's room for upside. and I don't know if you can call it a breakout

because he was a number eight pitcher in fantasy in 2015, but a bounce back. But all right, I'll give you some names. Garrett Cole or Tanaka. To knock. I'm going to lean Cole now because Tanaka has his own frustrations. Yeah, I have not adjusted Garrett Cole's ranking,

but it's going to be really close. I think I'd probably lean Cole. Cole or Paxton? Cole. Oh, that was very quick. I'm going to say Paxton. I would go with Paxton. What's interesting about Garrett Cole is I think we all agree that there's going to be upside.

I think you're going to have to pay for a lot of that upside, especially after this trade. I don't think he's someone who people are going to draft at face value over the last couple of years. I think people are going to draft him around the top 15 in starting pitcher. And at that point, I'm not that interested. You know what? When this trade, you know, this trade took a couple days to consummate. but as it was unfolding, I tweeted out something to the effect of,

I don't think Garrett Cole would be one of the Astros five best pitchers on an inning for inning basis. And I got so much backlash for that, which seemed like, you know, my audience being a fantasy audience, I'm used to having to say to them, don't just look at the ERA and web. But these people weren't looking at it and coming away with the obvious conclusion that he's been pretty average the last two years. He's got a lot of...

He has a lot of name power. He's gotten a lot of credit in the popular imagination for results that for the most part haven't been there. I know the irony of this conversation is, you know, who drafted him in our most recent mock draft at what I think is great value. Scott White in the 10th round. You're not going to get him in the 10th round after this. No. He might go in the 5th round after this. Yeah, that seems early to me.

Like, I wouldn't do that. Fifth round for Cole? Yeah, that would be too early. I can honestly see that happening. Yeah, I think sixth in a points league is fine. All right. Okay. And then so I don't want to spend all show on the trade.

So let's just wrap it up. Tell me about the pirate side of this, getting Musgrove, getting Michael Fulies, third baseman, Colin Moran, and outfielder Jason Martin. Well, people were underwhelmed with the return. And I understand why. I mean, part of it's because they're kind of overrating coal, as we've discussed. But part of it's because usually when you trade in this environment, especially. a mid-level starter like that, you get a very solid prospect in return. And the Astros didn't really get that.

But they did get some kind of some players who they didn't have, their prospects thought kind of expired because the Astros just didn't have room for them. Colin Moran, former sixth overall pick of the Marlins, actually had a breakout season in the minors last year. There's always been a good contact either. There were questions when he was drafted, would he develop the power? 18 home runs and about 350 of bats at AAA. And I'm glad to see he's going to get the opportunity,

at least against right-handers, I would think, a platoon with David Freeze there, to play for the Pirates see if he can do something with that. I think he becomes an in-all-only sleeper, and if he hits well enough that he starts getting at bats against lefties too, he could become mixed league relevant. It is worth noting. His prospect status did not just expire because he didn't get a chance.

his prospect status expired because he was bad. Like in 2016, he played at AAA Fresno in the Pacific Coast League as a 23-year-old, and he had a 697 OPS. That's a bad year. That's embarrassingly bad. Some of his earlier years were pretty good, though. They're fine. Yeah.

And when I say prospect stock expired, I should point out MLB.com had him as the Astros' fifth or sixth best prospect, which in the Astros system is obviously pretty high praise. It's just, I don't think he's really generated excitement among fantasy owners because there just seemed like no way he was going to break in for the asteros. Yeah. Okay. It's good news for him. It's great news for Joe Musgrove, who has had very, very good control, elite whip numbers,

should be good at run prevention, assuming that hitters just don't hit him all over the place. Yeah. The conversation we had about Jose Barrios last week where the minor league numbers, Scott and I at least think that the minor league numbers may never translate to the majors because he doesn't have overwhelming stuff. I feel like Joe Musgrove is like the poster boy for got away with mediocre stuff in the minors will not get away with it in the majors. Well, and not to just slow this down, but did you see his numbers out of the bullpen?

because he was pretty dominant. It was like right out of strikeout per inning, so I guess that aspect aside. Which is where he's been in the minors for the last two or three years as well. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, you had a 144 year A and 31 and third innings out of the bullpen. Like, and I don't totally disagree with the point you're making. Like, I don't, I question how much upside Musgrove really has,

but it's, I'm intrigued, which is all I'm really saying for Moran, too. And as an in-l-only owner, these are two players who I'm going to, might spend a couple dollars on. Cool. And I think you guys maybe should consider dropping Felipe Rivera from the top 10 closer. It's hard to be a top 10 closer on a terrible team, and the Pirates could be a terrible team. I don't disagree with you.

They've gotten a lot worse over the last week. I just can't get over how stupid it is for the Pirates and the Padres, both to be doing this. There's no point. Right. You know, I don't get traded. The pilots are going to be a lot worse. I don't think Eric Cole and Inter...

You think Intermichens good, though. I think Andrew McCutcheon is a good hit. I mean, it depends how much you trust war. I mean, his war hasn't been that great the last couple years. But come on, he's going to be better than whoever they replace him with. Well, Adam McHawley. Well, Austin Meadows is going to get a chance, right? Well, he was so bad at triple...

He's still a process. but he had an awful year at AAA because of some injuries and whatever else. But there is Jordan Loplow who had a great year at AAA, you know, an OPS approaching 1,000. So either him or Adam Frazier, I would suspect, well, maybe both if Josh Harrison follows McCutcheon out the door. They both have potential. And, you know, part of the reason I'm not so down on their return for Cole is because they got immediate contributors who... They suck. Could be respected.

Yeah, they're like, well, they're 25-year-olds who... Not them, I mean, the Pirates. The Pyrus case, have not been good in the majors. And in Collin Moran's case, had one half of one good season in the Pacific Coast League. The Pirates suck, not the players they got back. And did you get to see Felipe Rivera tweeting through the news yesterday? No. Right as the trades and his extension were announced, he tweeted the little guy making the face palm emoji.

And then Jim from the office screaming what is going on. Great. It's pretty fantastic. Well, you know, bad teams with great relievers definitely could offload those guys at the trade deadline. That's maybe why they signed him. Who knows? And yes, Brad Hand also will talk about him in a bit. All right, that's your Pittsburgh Pirates portion of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast here on Tuesday, the 16th.

Let's get going with some other stuff. Here's an email from Michael from Surf City, USA. Do your tops, fleer, upper deck, and score? When was the last time you guys bought a pack of trading cards? Last week. Really? For a kid or for yourself? For a kid.

Okay. These companies don't all exist anymore, right? There's like a monopoly in the trading card world. Do I have that right? I have no idea. It's been about 20 years since I bought a pack of training card. You're the expert now. I do not believe all of these companies still exist.

I could not tell you. which ones have been bought out. Top's is still around. For sure. Where is the love for Matt Olson? I don't see him ranked in Scott or Keith's. Yes, Keith's top 300 rankings. That can't be possible.

He might be in Heath's top 300. That's probably just, like, not reflecting the updates that you guys have made. Yeah, I've got Matt Olson as a top 15 first baseman in Roto. So he's definitely in my top 300. He's my top 200. Okay. Yep. Just want to get out there

I mean, we have talked about Matt Olson a few times on this podcast, I know. Maybe a friend Michael here isn't a regular listener, I don't know. The difference between him and Reese Hoskins is Matt Olson struck out 143 times between AAA and the majors last year. Reese Hoskins showed much better play discipline than he did. Olson's closer to Joey Gallagher. Yeah, I mean, Reese Hoskins, I feel like is better than Olson. But, I mean, Olson is going to get drafted in those middle rounds. is a great sleeper for home runs.

Like, I think he has 45 plus home run potential. And I don't, like, the strikeouts weren't so, it's not like he strikes out an Aaron Judge level, you know. Like, he could hit 250, 260 with a ton of home runs, and he'll be happy you drafted him at that point. He could be Chris Davis with a K. But he's obviously not going to continue the 70 Homer pace or whatever he was on last year.

Like, that's... He could be Chris Davis. with a C. Would you rather have Matt Olson or Greg Bird? Matt Olson. Olson, yeah. All right. Matt Olson or Eric Thames?

Olson. Olson. I mean, they have about as long as a track record of success. I'd probably go Alson. If you drafted Matt Olson and Indians relief pitcher Tyler Olson, you know, you can name your team. Oldson Twins? Matt and Tyler. Oh, yeah, Olson Twins.

That's even better. What's Matt and Tyler? Just kidding. I was going for the Olson Twins. All right. Email of the day number two is from Rob. and he's very concerned about our health, guys. Chris should trust in health data the way he trusts in baseball data.

Whole milk is better for you. It is probably sugar, especially hidden sugars, those by other names, in foods where you don't expect them, like barbecue sauce, ketchup, yogurt, etc. That is affecting your health most adversely. Reduced fat milk has a higher ratio of sugar to fat and is thus worse for you. And here's the sample of the research, and he gave us a time.com link. Well, I'm always arguing with Chris that he doesn't trust science and I trust science. So I'm glad that somebody else is on my side.

We did have this debate just the other day. Yep. So why somebody else is on my side with science? I don't think I was like, I don't think I was like poo-pooing whole milk. You were anti-hole milk. We just don't buy whole milk. You should. We'd like for you to be healthier.

Literally the only time I have milk is when I have a bowl of cereal and you know what I do with the milk when it's done? drink it. I throw it down the drink. You check it. Milk is gross. We would like for you to be healthier. Milk is not gross. Look at where it comes from.

Milk is gross. Okay. So cheese is gross. Yeah, so here's the thing. Milk once it goes bad is awesome. I did read the research on this article. Basically what it says is that it's not so much the milk that's better or worse for you. It's the effect of drinking the low-fat milk because it doesn't fill you up as much.

And you tend to replace that with carbohydrates. and sugars, which are bad for you. So it's interesting. Now the baseball portion of this email from Rob. Scott said he adjusted his, that is important, Scott. I like to bring this up because you say it on the air and people might want an explanation. Scott said he adjusted his ranking of Zach Kozart because of average draft position. This seems to confound the purpose of rankings.

If his rankings are to be useful, they should be created independent of and compared to ADP so that the discrepancies indicate value to us. If he bakes in ADP, then the rankings are far less meaningful. So I know you have a different philosophy on rankings, and I would like for you to share that with our lovely audience. If I believed everyone matched up rankings to ADP, I guess that would make sense, but I don't think that's a common practice. I think the purpose of rankings is a draft guide. You should draft these guys in this order. And mostly that's influenced by how good the player is.

But, you know, if I rank Zach Kozart 7th at shortstop when you could. get him in round 18, I'm going to be telling people to reach for Zach Kozart in a way that's potentially destructive. So I don't want to do that. I think, you know, if I feel like a player is much better than the masses do, I have sleepers, breakouts, columns, underrated columns to say that. I don't necessarily have to say it through my rankings. Okay.

So, yeah, that's kind of the different philosophy that Scott brings to his rankings and the explanation for that. All right. some other podcasts that you might be interested in. Of course, we have fantasy football today. You probably know about that one. What you might not know about is the Sportsline DFS podcast, which features Heath Cummings, and Mike McClure, who is a DFS expert for Sportsline.com, which, by the way, you should subscribe to for like $10 a month.

It's extremely inexpensive, and we'll make you your money back instantly. Sportsline.com. But, yes, we have the Sportsline DFS podcast, which is free, of course. And we record that five days a week, unless it's like MLK. then we don't record. But, yeah, Heath and I will be doing that with Mike McClure later today. We've got a wrestling podcast in this corner. It's wrestling, MMA, and boxing.

We've got the Flagrant 2 basketball podcast. We've got off the bench with Cannell and Bell, which is brand new and very popular. We've got some really great podcasts. We've stepped up our podcast in game. And if you want a complete list, it's not quite complete. It will be soon. Do have to make some additions to that page. But a mostly complete list, go to cbsports.

dot com slash podcast singular cbsports.com slash podcast as far as this show goes uh two a week for now maybe three a week beginning as soon as next week but certainly into february yeah we're going to ramp it up we'll get to four and then we'll get to five a week and uh you're going to win your league so looking forward to it and emails fantasy baseball at cbsi.com we have reached the point where we don't have nearly enough time to read every emails we're getting a lot of emails but we will read a lot of them. I'm very committed to that on both this show and fantasy football today. It's making sure our listeners

are involved, getting them on the air one way or the other, emails and tweets. And our Twitter handles, I am at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R. Chris is at C-Towers, CBS. Scott is at CBS, Scott White, and Heath is at Heathcoming Senior, at Heathcomings, SR. All right, the rest of your news and notes,

San Diego signed Brad Hand to a three-year, About $20 million deal. And boy, hand, pretty good. Pretty good last year. Just getting the numbers here. He had a 216 strikeouts and 79 and a third. And a 0.9.93 whip.

Well, you know, this deal's good for his trade value because it guarantees that the team who acquires him will have him for a couple of years. And you know, as they always say, a Brad in the hand is worth two in the book. Would you guys rather have Brad Hand or from him to say Rivera? Rivera. They've been so reticent over the last couple of years to actually lock Brad Hand into the closers role that that's the only thing that gives me pause, but I think he's a better pitch.

Yeah, I'm going to go with hand. Okay. And Addison Reed goes to the Twins. When will he take over for Fernando Rodney? Never. Every time Fernando Rodney is ready to lose his job, he will have 10 straight scoreless appearances. Yeah.

Yeah, I'm kind of. No, I'm not. I'm not done predicting. Fernando Rodney is going to lose his job. If I was done predicting that, I'd have to rank them a lot higher than I do. But, you know, I'm only drafting Reid in an A-L-only league. Okay. And Jimmy Nelson's going to start a throwing program on Friday.

That's good news. He is, quote, way ahead of schedule, according to MLB.com. Good stuff. Howie Kendrick, signed a two-year $7 million deal with the Nationals. just a utility player, it seems. The Blue Jays signed Curtis Granderson to a one-year $5 million deal, so get excited for a good month and a half stretch from Curtis Granderson. Is he going to be a starter for them?

Sometimes? Right now I'd say yes. All right. And the Mets signed Adrian Gonzalez. Not going to be a starter for them, right? Dumb, dumb, dumb. I mean, I hope not. Are we going to bet on the Mets making a good decision?

Wow. He's coming hard. Well, I don't know. No, he's not going to start. Dominic Smith is still a young prospect. Jay Bruce, they showed a willingness to play him at first base last year of Dominic Smith. He is the insurance plan to the insurance plan. Yeah, Michael Conforto has an 015 stretch, and Adrian Gonzalez is starting at first base.

It's awful. Okay. Mets fans like when you talk about how bad their team is, too. I know. I've discovered the host. They love it. So my defense of the Mets is just angering that fans out there. But no, they do like when you talk about how bad they're doing.

I know. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They want you to hate your teens. Hey, hey, as much as they do. Terry Collins is not the manager anymore. His weird quasi-ventad against Michael Conforta no longer stands. Okay. All right, let's talk about some bounceback candidates and we'll finish the show with your emails.

Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com, once again, the address. But that we'll probably get to four or five today. So, yes, when I say bounce back, it does include some very high-end play. that even if you draft them like eighth overall, you've got the potential to win, like Mookie Betz and Chris Bryant. So like I said, I compared these guys where they were drafted in leagues last year,

our podcast league, which is head-to-head points, and a Roto league that we did last year, or at least the Roto draft, I don't know if we played it out. Compared to this year, the two drafts we've done this year, which would be points and Roto. Actually, just to clarify, the drafts I looked at last year were points and head-to-head categories, not standard

Roto. So it's a little bit different just because of the smaller rosters. But anyway, you get the gist. So Mookie Betts, last year he was third overall in points, second in categories in our drafts. This year, he was the sixth pick in points in our points draft and eighth in Roto. So I know it's, you know, it's not that big of a difference, but look, it is a difference, right? Do you think Mookie Betz will bounce back and play like he was the number one outfielder in fantasy in 2016? Will he be worthy of a top three pick like he was going into last year?

Well, we're certainly not drafting him that way. Right. And I – for most players, you bet no. But I definitely think he has that thought. I expect him to bounce back and be better than what. I don't think he will have a 268 Mavip. Right. Right.

I feel like there's a lot of bounceback already baked into just getting him back in the middle of the first round. He should be a first round pick. All right, so let me just put it this way. Obviously, it's Trout Altuvei, Goldschmidt are going to be at the top. Who's four? And why not bets? Because I think, if you look at bets, he had obviously a down-year last year. In points leagues, to me, currently I'm leaning towards bets as the number four pick.

Because as bad as he was last year for him, 264. batting average. He was the number four outfield or in points leagues. So, you know, there's that. In Roto, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't rule it out either. So who would you take ahead of him at the four spot? Aronado. Like, to me, it's a clear top four. I don't

really mess with Aronado at that fourth spot. Just too high of a floor. Yeah, I can go Charlie Blackmun. Yeah, it's in points. In Roto, I'm saying Trey Turner. Yeah, I think Mookie Betz, there's a group of five players who we've basically seen have the ceiling of a number one overall pick and the floor of like the eighth best player. And it's Mookie Betz, Mike Trout, Jose Al Tuve, Paul Goldschmidt, and maybe Nolan Aronado.

I'm not actually sure if he has number one upside just because the places he helps you are the easiest places to find production right now. But like I think we might have seen Mookie Betts floor last year. But this kind of gets to what we were talking about last podcast. I'm not really pursuing sealing with my first round pick. I just want him to perform like my first round pick should. And Aeronado is... Other than Trout, he's as safe as they get. I mean, Moogie Betts or Paul Goldschmidt, I think, are just as safe.

I think it was Al-Too. Just because of the... But the skill sets are... I mean, bets didn't quite perform like a first rounder last year. Goldschmidt didn't quite two years ago. I mean, in Colorado, we've seen Aeronado have bad Babbup years and still, you know, he's leading the majors in home run. He's leading the majors in RBI. There's so many advantages.

But those are, like I said, those are the easiest categories to fill. Well, Betts does you need a lot of those things. And he provides a lot of those things. Yeah. But when you can get Matt Olson, who might hit 45 home runs in the 10th round, it lessens. the impact, whereas guys who can hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases, like Trout, Altuvae, Goldschmidt. Yeah, they're great. They're great.

But I'm not going to risk messing up my first round pig just because I have to get sealed. There's any risk of messing up your first. So, Chris, who you take it? You're not who or bets? Very minimal. I think I take bets. All right. And then the last thing I say is, yeah, Goldsmith is kind of the inspiration for this segment

in terms of bets and Chris Bryant. because he was coming off a down year. 2016 was a down year, and he slipped a little bit in drafts. Still a first-round pick, but he slipped a little bit, and obviously he crushed it. So, you know, you can still get value even in the first round. Chris Bryant was the number three third baseman in points and Roto last year. He had a nice year, but wasn't as good as what he did the year before.

He had 10 fewer home runs, I believe. So going into 2016, or 17 rather, he was sixth over. on points and fifth in the categories draft that we did. That's where he was drafted, a top six pick. So far in the two drafts we've done this year, Chris Bryant went 12th in points, 14th in Roto. 12th in points and 14th in Roto. So yeah, that's a drop of a six, seven picks, basically, even eight, even nine. How about that? Six to nine picks. So, yeah, Chris Bryant. Is that too late? Is he going to give you great return if he gets drafted at the end of the first round? I want Chris Bryant to start striking out more again.

I was going to say, like, Chris Bryant and George Springer, I feel like they had similar stories when they got called up. Like, you see a ton of talent there, but is he going to strike out too much to take advantage of it? And both of them last year took a drastic, had a drastic decrease in strikeout to the point that it's one of their biggest assets now. How little they strike out. Strike out of an average rate last season. If, like, but obviously the power, he lost, what, 10 home runs from 10 years ago? It's from his MDP season. I don't know if that's really related.

Well, he lost, like, all indicators show that he dropped off pretty markedly in terms of how hard he was hitting the ball. His hard hit rate dropped almost eight points. His average exit velocity was down to 86.9 miles an hour, actually below the league average. This is not the Chris Bryant we would promise. Right. But is that a case where a correlation doesn't imply causation? Was it just kind of random noise in the batted ball? It could be, but it does fit in with our accepted wisdom about, you know, chunk up on the bat, make contact.

Hey, come on, we know he's not a 29 homer guy. This was a fluke. Right. My biggest problem is he could bounce back a little bit, and third base is so incredibly deep. I'm not going to take him in the first round I'm not going to take any third baseman in the first round except for Nolan Errano Oh wow

Um Okay great Still a great player though Like you have him in the first round Chris Would you take him in the first round? I think he's right around there Yeah I mean he's like 10th player I think so Yeah like

I think he probably bounces Like the one thing that I would Say here is like We're telling that safety in the first round If you want upside in the first round Chris Bryant is a guy who has, I still think 50 Homer upside because Andy's safe. Yeah, I mean, if we saw the downside last year. It wasn't far from being a first round caliber hitter last year.

Well, in points, so this is another guy like bets. Because of the improved plate discipline, Bryant was pretty damn good in points leagues. He averaged 3.77 fantasy points per game in 2016 and 3.54 fantasy points per game in 2017, which is still really good. The big difference was in Roto. He went for being the number six overall player in 2016 to the number 34 overall player in 2017. But when you get Brian, you get bets with good plate discipline and scoring a bunch of runs, you know, they're going to be, and getting a lot of plate appearances, they're going to be good in points leagues.

Roto could be a little bit different, but I think what's crazy. He had 73 RBIs last year, and the Cubs scored more runs last year than they did in 2016, which really surprised me. So that is a total fluke. 73 RBI. He was terrible with runners in scoring position. He had 2.37. So, I don't know.

He feels like a guy who's going to put up better numbers this year. He haven't chimed in much. What do you think? Oh, I said he was a choker. And I do think that there's a little bit of risk hitting at the top of the order in an L lineup. It's hard to have a ton of RBI. If he's going to hit second again, you've got to assume he's not going to hit with as many runners on base as guys that hit third or fourth. Yeah, but I will say this.

He started 38 games batting third last season. He had a 964 OPS. I think we can all agree. Pretty good. He hit 10 home runs in 38 games. I think we can all agree. Pretty good. It's 13 RBI in 38 games batting third.

Wow. With 10 home runs. That's weird. You know, another player... That's just random. Another player you can do this with for two years in a row is Corey Seeger. I mean, as deep as the Dodgers lineup is, how is he always? and the 70 RBI range.

That's part of the reason I don't trust we've seen anywhere close to his best, really, for fantasy purposes either. So, you know, he deserves to be drafted beyond Brian, obviously. But I don't totally take his point per game average at face value. All righty then. Moving on. Let's go to a little bit lower, Josh Donaldson. So Josh Donaldson, last year, he was taking 10.

He was taking 10th overall in points leagues and ninth in our head-to-head categories league. So far in our early drafts this year, really, you know, at the end of 2017, but for this upcoming season, 25th in our points league draft, and Donaldson was 31st in our Roto League draft. Heath, do you think Josh Donaldson could return first round value? I think he absolutely could return first round value. I'm a little bit worried about one of the things that made him so good was the fact that two years in a row he scored 122 runs.

He drove in 123 one of those years. He's absolutely going to get back to that 35-40 home run range. This lineup could be awful. I'm not sure that there's going to be near as many run scoring and RBI opportunities as he's seen in the past. I wouldn't be surprised if the batting average stays down in the 270s as opposed to the 280-290 range we saw for a couple years there in Toronto. So I don't have much of an action.

expectation of him getting his first round value. I think the ceiling is more like second, third, and I'm just not that excited about that. I want to back up something you just said. So, Donaldson last year, played 113 games. But if he had played 155 games, which is what he played in 2016, I believe, yeah. If he played 155 games, he was on an 89 run pace compared to what did he score that year? He scored 122 runs. So 89 runs, and they were.

26th the runs scored last year. So yes, you're spot on there. Chris Scott, agree, disagree, that Donaldson feels more like a guy that could give you, you know, second round value? I rank Donaldson like an early third rounder, so I don't disagree. But a lot of that's just baking in risk. I mean, part of the reason he was so bad in the first half is because he was banged up. And he's getting at an age now where that's probably going to happen more frequently. I don't know that he can match the run in RBI totals from his early, his first two years with the Blue Jays. But if you just look at what he did in the second half when he hit only 276, but, you know, appeared to be healthy again. Per game basis, you know, he was close to four points a game.

So that would, if he sustained that over a full season, it obviously would be first round production. I mean, I'm not sure it matters that much if you're, if you're dinging him for risk or if you're dinging him. him for expected production, but I think I am a little more excited just judging from Heath's tone to draft Donaldson than he is. Yeah, I'm probably not taking him where he went in our last two drafts. Okay. So Heath has Bregman ahead of Donaldson. Scott has Rendon ahead of Donaldson.

In points leagues. I have Donaldson ahead in Rotow. Okay. And Chris, final word on Donaldson? He's clearly in decline. He's clearly still a very good player. No, not McCutcheon. Donaldson.

Yes. Weird that you have Donaldson higher in Rota than points. Well, just because Rendon's so good with the plate discipline, it's more about... So it's... Yeah, but Rendon is more walks than strikeouts. So, at least he was last year. So that's more a reflection of, wow, Rendon is ridiculous in this format than Donaldson's not so good in this format. All right, so let's get to some emails.

We'll do... We've got five other guys that I had here. Pollock, a little more interesting, later in the draft. Pollack, Carpenter, Lester, Story, Hamels. That will be part two of Bounceback Week, which I think we're going to record tomorrow. I'll probably post it on Thursday. So some emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This is from Josh from Ontario.

Chris, look what you have inspired. He's going to get the all-valentines Day team. Fantastic. Yeah. All right, Tyler Flowers. It's beautiful. He said, were you ugging at the names ahead of time, or were you ugging at Valentine's Day? I'm looking at the concept,

the On theines Day, the mention of my name. Chris. There's nothing good about this email. Nothing bad about this email, actually. Tyler Flowers is a good one. Trevor Love Story. That's nice.

This one's terrible. Oduble Cupid's Herrero. Oh, that's actually really good. No, it's terrible. This idea that the worst they are, the better they are, is for people who aren't very good at coming up with good ones.

I guess, but there is some merit. We're going to fight. We are going to fight. Blake Snell the Roses. Very good. Steve Pierce by heart. Yeah. And the special fan of the analyst, Chris, the Towers of Love, hashtag Huy Lewis.

I'm strong and sudden. And I could be cruel some time. But I just might save your life. That's right. The Towers of Love. Yes. Good stuff. Oh, come on.

He's in the Dynasty League, Snow. You have the worst ones. Snell's like Martin's Spirit. You use Snell's name. as smells. Yasmani and money and Tomas Problems. It was the worst thing I've ever heard in my life. That was so bad.

That was so bad. I would look at it in the league and be like, what the hell? It would never get, how bad Yasmani, Money, Tomas Problems was, never got old. It was equally as bad every time I saw it. It was Andrew McCutcheon outside of those 63 games. 100%. All right. Christian from Montreal.

Hey, fantasy, Matt, Paul, Jed, and Colton. Cardinals NFE, all righty. I said it was jerkos. When it comes to position scarcity in 2018, which positions do you see as scarce in single league formats? Does your strategy change in a single league rhodo format with position scarcity instead of a mixed league? For example, third base looks much more scarce than second

and shortstop in AL-only leagues. Well, having not done an AL or NL draft yet, I can't speak to this with great authority. But I would guess, Chris, I know, you're firmly with the idea that there really isn't much position scarcity in a mixed league contest and I'm not quite to the level you are but I know it's not nearly as much as it used to be do you feel like do you feel like that changes when you get into the league specific for that I tend to think that catcher is really the only one that it makes a huge difference in

you know when you're splitting half of the league half of the player pool yeah because you're splitting the whole player pool for both I'm sure I'm sure there are individual trends, maybe third base is shallower, because, you know, you look at the third base rankings right now, I guess I could see how it might be shallower in the AL. You got Machado.

Yeah, you're trying to George Romero. Guys, I'll tell you what it is. I mean, shortstop is bad in the NL. You've got Turner and you've got Seeger. And then it's like, you also have Correa and Lindor and Andrews, Bregman,

Cozart. Yeah. Trevor's Story might be the number three. Yeah, Trevor's Story might be the number three. shortstop in NL only. Yeah, so that's a big difference. And then if I look at, the pitchers usually deeper in the NL. Here's the thing. I mean, you were talking about third base.

Oh, there's still all these great third basemen in the AL. My 12th third baseman is Todd Frazier, assuming he's back in AO. If it's not, if he's not back in the AL, it's somebody worse. So somebody in an AL-only league is getting left out at a position where a lot of teams are going to have a really good player. and that's how you create, that's how you wind up with the disparity and have trouble keeping up. So, I mean, it makes more of a difference there than it does in mixed leagues, absolutely. And I think second base is a lot better in the AL too. You do have Daniel Murphy.

That's it. Yeah, I mean, Degorn moved to the A.L. Paul D. Young is somebody that Heath likes a lot. But that's it in the top 10. DJ the Mayhew, maybe. But most of second base, it's Al-Tube. Jose Ramirez, Dozier, Cano, Scope, D. Gordon, Whitmerfield, American League. Most positions are worse in the NL.

Yeah. There's just not as much talent in the National League. In the A.L. Okay. Next email is from Adam in San Diego. I'm considering getting the names of all of my championship-winning fantasy teams tattooed on my body. Best idea or worst idea ever?

Yes. Wait, I got a question. Because we might... You know, I, I, I, yeah, I, okay, interesting question. Go ahead. Do we need to reboot? Do any of the four of us have a single tattoo? I, I think I'm going to get one for my 30th birthday.

My wife is really judging me hard for this decision. She is not a fan. I told you you we're getting ready to become a like, but I'm thinking about, do what your wife thinks of something permanently altered on your body. The answer is no. No, yeah, I have, and that's weird, right? Four, four dudes.

I don't have one. Four dudes randomly thrown into a scenario like this and none of us have a tattoo. That's become an oddity in 2017, right? 2018. But also, Adam, you should absolutely do it. Not me, other Adam. No, I mean, you should get Adams' fantasy. The other Adams' fantasy team names tattooed on your body as well.

Oh, my God. That would not go over well with anybody that I know. So, yeah, I don't think it's a great idea. But, hey, you're talking to the wrong group here. And he wants us to do a you be the judge. segment on Johnny Quato. So Adam is actually named the segment that we did last week where I make two of you take sides, even if you're, you don't even believe it, and then somebody else has to judge it.

Would you guys like to do that for Johnny Quato? Sure. Can you do it in like 20 seconds each? Okay. All right. Scott, pro-Johnny Quato, Heath, anti-Johnny Quato. I am going to use a timer, and I'm going to cut you off. and we are going to start right now.

Scott, you are on the clock pro Quoeto. We saw this from Quodo a couple years ago that year that was split with the Royals. The numbers, particularly with the Royals, just weren't that great. And I think last year there's more of a built-in excuse. He had blister problems. He was pitching through most of the year, finally shut down some in the second half. But the underlying numbers still look good for Quoido. I think he's fine.

Oh, my gosh. He saw this when he was in Kansas City. He had a 3-4-4-4-4-ERA that year. 4-7. 4-7-2 last year. Are you arguing four them against them? Come on. Full season statistics are generally more predictive than partial season statistics.

He had a four, five, two, ERA, he only threw 147 innings. The fact that he was hurt does not make him a better draft pick. Okay, wow, you guys nailed that. That was like 19 and 20 seconds. Chris Towers, who won? I don't appreciate Heath cynically quoting one of my favorite statistical analysis things. So I'm going to dock him points for that. Scott, you're wrong.

And your heart wasn't in it. What? Johnny Quato's... The blisters! What the heck? He was pitching these all year. He's strongest assets as a starting pitcher have always been his ability to induce weak contact, namely ground balls, and his great control. Last season, his control was below average.

He walked more batters than the average Major League starter, and his ground ball rate dipped from 50% to 39%. Because he had... Blisters. Maybe he just had blisters last. Hey, Chris, you're a part of 20 seconds, too. I get to take as long as I want. You know how long Aaron Judge at Bats are? He takes a lot of pitches.

I will like him a lot more if the rumors are true and they go sign Lorenzo Cain as well. Velocity was similar, strikeout rate was similar. I think he's fine. Their defense will be very good if they can put my question. And you believe that, Scott. That was the real argument. I believe he's. I mean, I don't rank him like a.

top 15 pitcher like I did a year ago because that would be dumb. We're making the stack of judging K-per-9 instead of K-per-Sense. I'm not scared of drafting quado. Oh, that argument again. Okay, last one. I don't have a name here. This is your Mike then, let's just say, in Mikeville. 12-team categories on-base percentage instead of batting average.

I can keep up the three players. I can keep them for multiple years. Give me three keepers. Jose Ramirez in the seventh. Springer in the fifth. Buxton in the 12th, Alex Wood in the 12th, Drew Pomerantz for the 18th. Okay, obviously it's having convulsions thinking about the greatest league ever created. It's Ramirez in the 7th and Springer and the 5th, guys. I'm sorry.

Who's the last one? Ramirez Springer and Buxston. Yeah, I agree. Okay. Sorry to cut you off. We've got to get out of here because there's another podcast about to start. And that will be the pick six podcast, the best NFL podcast in town. Pick Six podcast, check it out. For Scott and for Heath for Chris, I'm Adam. And we'll talk to you later in the week with BounceFex, Part 2.